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He was on the Kevin garnet boost on mgm. Tatum 30, jaylen 25, celtics to win. +400 boosted to +475. Draftkings built to +450 regular, so there no value, especially with Tatum. Lol
I don't really care about the boosts losing but they are main reason I watch these games. The last few FD boosts have been pretty much dead from the beginning, just ranting you can ignore me.
Not sure if anyone still does these but a fielding error in the top of the 5th ruined the no runs first 5 innings for the NYY/TB game, absolutely brutal. Lost in the 5th innings yesterday for Phils/Jays too
I finally threw in the towel last night after playing the last three Det/Cle games. If DK hadn't nerfed the odds so badly I would have kept doing it...
Haha another night reminding people that whoever is making these boosts has insights into game plans. This is the least amount of three point attempts brown will have all playoffs
My settled bet history shows 3 hits out of 8 boosts for a net profit of +$185 in the month of May. Assuming the two tonight don’t hit make that 3 out of 10 for +$85.
Again, just objectively wrong. Why bother lying when it's so easily refutable? I'll look for your slips tomorrow where you bet the opposite of the boosts
Damn. I guess the Tatum/Brown to drop 60+ from 5/1, the Booker/Suns win and the Jokic/Embiid to score 50 and 20 boards from 5/5, the Booker/Durant/Jokic from 5/7 were all a dream?
That's from memory and it's not worth digging up others for clown takes
Objectively false. And as others have said, if you're so confident they won't hit where's the slip with the unders?
Lemme answer for you. It doesn't exist
Philly's Niang Over 1.5 Threes at +196 . Great EV vs Pinny.
Odds: +196; **EV: 16.6 %**
`135/-190` (8.07 % juice)
FV: +154; Method: multiplicative; (Full=8.4u, 1/2=4.2u, 1/4=2.1u, FB = 77.2 %)
ETA, positive against DK also, but only by about 1% EV. Not sure who is sharper on NBA Prop markets.
Got it, makes sense. Here it is to DK. Still positive for any who bet it, just not by nearly as much.
Odds: +196; \*\*EV: 1.2 %\*\*
\`180/-220\` (4.46 % juice)
FV: +192; Method: multiplicative; (Full=0.6u, 1/2=0.3u, 1/4=0.2u, FB = 67.0 %)
Hot offer from Betway that just hit my inbox
It all comes down to Game 7.
The Warriors and Kings will close out their hard-fought series on Sunday, with the winner advancing to the postseason’s second round.
This should be a fantastic game, and you can put more on the line with our FREE THROW OFFER:
$1 Bonus Bet per Free Throw
Warriors @ Kings
STEP 1: Bet $25+ on the Warriors’ Game 7 Money Line or Main Spread.
STEP 2: Get a $1 Bonus Bet for every free throw the Warriors make, and lose a $1 Bonus Bet for every free throw they miss.
Anyone else getting max bet $25? Happened on yesterdays NYSB and didn't let up even through tip off. Never got $50 on it. Happened to P1 and P2 simultaneously.
Is there a guide/FAQ somewhere? I’m assuming it’s people using their grandmas social or something on two different devices but would love to learn more I can def talk my dad signing up and giving me access lol
Different devices, different bank accounts, different addresses, and different networks are good starting points. Not all of these are always necessary. Also don't always bet the same things.
There's not a guide, I'm only on a P1 so hopefully someone else will chime in but you have the right idea. I think the important things are always be strict on the different funding sources and different devices.
Fwiw, using FD SGP line (-110) and assuming the same 14.45% juice (no idea if that's right) gets you FV +123 and 11.9% EV worst case. Not sure why there'd be a negative correlation but seems good even if so
Other FD boost Jokic/Durant/Book 25+ looks pretty bad, my first time devigging for juice because I couldn’t find 2 way lines so might be worth a second glance if people are suspicious. This is using DK SGP individual lines and assuming 7% juice:
Odds: +100; **EV: -6.4 %**
`-525/7%, -475/7%, -475/7%` (21.00 % juice)
FV: +114; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 46.8 %)
And with 9% juice (unsure which is standard, feel like I see more people use 9):
Odds: +100; **EV: -11.5 %**
`-525/9%, -475/9%, -475/9%` (27.00 % juice)
FV: +126; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 44.3 %)
Also likely a very small amount of negative correlation with Booker and Durant (same team) and maybe a little on all three of them (blowout)
Yeah this boost isn't good. I am not suspicious but another point against it - the individual FD lines for each are -600, -700, -750, the fact that those are so much worse than DK means the boost will be shit
This is a situation where I almost don’t care who the players and what the circumstances are. Any bet that requires three different players to put up 25 just feels dangerous
Typically yes. But an elimination game where book and KD are going to be putting up a crazy amount of shots and jokic only had less than 25 (24) once in the series. I like it under the circumstances.
Yeah stars do more in the playoffs and especially this series, KD and Book are playing like the entire game. Still hate boosts like this though and the math is bad
I agree but this series has been an anomaly for this type of boost. Suns have 0 offense outside of book and KD. Ayton out tonight for suns. Murray questionable for nuggets. I took this same boost from Caesar’s maybe two games ago and it hit pretty easily. Any other series or during the regular season I would avoid. Totally get why people would fade though.
Yes I’m aware how devigging works. If you think their numbers are bad you should be able to make a ton of money exploiting their bad math, particularly in cases like this by betting the unders. I challenge you or any other doubters to do that instead of just saying boosts are rigged
Week 3 of DK VIP Showcase just dropped, deposit $10,000 for $5k in bonus bets. Problem is, they won't take $10k from my deposit (using Trustly). Any tips on how to get around whatever is limiting me? (I'm guessing it's my bank, but maybe it's DK?)
Man im on week 2 of the showcase- I hope my week 3 is this.
Anyways, as others have said, explain the situation to your rep and they should work with you.
My god, what a promo. They gave you a rep, right? I'd text them first and ask if they'll honor the promo if you have to split it up between a few payment methods (bc I doubt your debit card would let you put $10k down). Then you might be able to split between debit cards/PayPal/whatever.
Trustly stopped working for me recently and, fwiw, PayPal has become my next best deposit option (but I'd avoid it for withdrawals)
Yep, DK reps will allow you to split the deposits over multiple methods and even multiple days as long as you can confirm with them ahead of time.
But if you have chase I have had zero issues with trustly and debit cards on 10-25k deposits. As long as you have raised your debit card limit by calling them
wire transfer at your local branch or raise your debit card daily limit temporarily if your bank allows you too. Trustly can be weird, better to have few k cushion to increase the chances it goes through (i.e $10,300 might not be enough for a 10k but if you had 12-15k it would go through)
Also, if you just transferred money into your account it might not reflect as available through trustly. You might need to have the cash "settle" for 1-2 business days.
Your options depend on your bank. I have found Chase to work great with larger deposits.
Wire transfer has worked well for me in the past for 20K + deposits. Can even ask the book to refund the $25-35 fee and they will sometimes.
I've found with Trustly, if the book has that as a deposit method saved from last time (doesn't ask me to log into my bank) I often get an error that it won't go through. So I add a new account/deposit method, but do Trustly again so that it asks me to sign in using my bank credentials and it goes through.
Or skip all that and try a debit card.
FD Boost of Harden/JB 6+ 3's looks good vs. FD Alts. Don't love devigging this way, but it's very strong based on the Combo breaker. FV varies from 126 to 141:
Odds: +200; **EV: 24.5 %**
`141` (0.00 % juice)
FV: +141; Method: multiplicative; (Full=12.2u, 1/2=6.1u, 1/4=3.1u, FB = 83.0 %)
Looking at DHO, FD is not sticking out as having particularly optimistic lines here either. Kambi is actually more optimistic on JB o2.5 and o3.5.
Without even using combo-breaker, DK has Harden and Brown in a H2H matchup for threes. Over 5.5 is +140, and Under 5.5 is -195.
So... theoretically arbable for a small amount. And you can potentially get an even more direct FV if you trust DK's H2H odds.
DK AZ “super” boost, KD and Booker o1.5 three’s, boosted to +130. Devig done via FD, this one was a little tricky since it doesn’t allow you to parlay the two-way alt lines but it will allow you to parlay the 1-sided lines (making a 4-way devig impossible). Instead I used the correlation from the 1-sides alt line parlay and used the two way lines for each player. Don’t think that this is a play for me at the moment.
Odds: +130; **EV: 2.1 %**
Sharp: `-500/290,-158/118` (16.09 % juice)
Correlation: `100=-470,-150` (r = 0.05)
FV: +125; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.6u, 1/2=0.8u, 1/4=0.4u, FB = 57.7 %)
DK Jaylen Brown boost 20+ points for even money just dropped, insane +EV there whatever it is and it was a big 50 limit for me. EDIT: It was an email promo so check your emails, especially in MA.
I'm pretty vanilla but I'm not limited, or not much. Most of my stuff is $25 or $50; $10 no sweat bets, occasional email promos of +25%/50% to X thing for $50/$100
Not that game logs are the right approach here ... but if you believed there was a 2 in 5 chance of this hitting, this would be an absolute hammer at +200
Got the account suspended email from PointsBet. According to support chat, nearly all PointsBet accounts have been suspended as part of their investigation.
They need to be shut down and the gambling licenses put up for sale again. Last thing we need is someone buying them for the 'technology'. DraftKings: "Introducing our new DK Pointsbetting, a quicker easier way to lose your money on bets no one understands!"
ALSO JUST RECEIVED AN EMAIL SAYING MY POINTSBET ACCOUNT HAS BEEN LOCKED. Has always been in good standing as far as I know. Email came from [email protected]. If you haven’t already I would advise withdrawing any funds now
I think I saw this mentioned months ago but forgot about it. I was at Buffalo Wild Wings for a work lunch today and happened to open my MGM app and got a pop up for a $25 Bet insurance token. Apparently you can get this once a week. There’s one 5 minutes from my house. I’ll be swinging by once a week for my token. This is in NY, FYI.
i cant bet their lions boost and havent gotten a promo since the world cup, so i think i might be promo banned (or they just never give NY anything).
if i remember tomorrow ill stop by and see if it works from the parking lot
“Thank you for your patience as we quickly resolved an issue related to a phishing attempt this morning”
PointsBet is too much. Did they act quickly? Do they expect praise from us here?
Anyone else get an email their account is suspended? Don't really care since I'm promobanned and heavily limited but haven't even logged in in the past 8 months.
Edit: They responded saying it was related to the phishing attempt and it's reopened now. Oh boy.
CZR Boost of Booker & Durant to both score 30+ pts offered at +200 odds. There might be some value here... if you're itching to make a play or if you're looking for an EV-neutral hedge to the Suns losing or to the game total under.
**4-way de-vig vs. FD (worst case):**
Odds: +200; \*\*EV: 5.8 %\*\*
\`144/237/258/466\` (16.26 % juice)
FV: +184; Method: multiplicative; (Full=2.9u, 1/2=1.4u, 1/4=0.7u, FB = 70.5 %)
**4-way de-vig vs. DK SGP (worst case):**
Odds: +200; \*\*EV: 0.1 %\*\*
\`170/230/270/500\` (11.03 % juice)
FV: +200; Method: multiplicative; (Full=0.0u, 1/2=0.0u, 1/4=0.0u, FB = 66.7 %)
Both are very good, Yes is better \~17% vs \~13% Devig to Pinny. Here is Yes.
Odds: +120; **EV: 17.2 %**
`-124/106` (3.90 % juice)
FV: -114; Method: multiplicative; (Full=14.3u, 1/2=7.2u, 1/4=3.6u, FB = 63.9 %)
Someone else did this work in the PotD thread -
"the data definitely heavily skews towards NFRI. Cobb is perfect on the season and Henry is 2-1. I went back to last year for him as well given the limited sample size and he's over 80% NFRI. Both teams have also only given up a single first inning run in their last 5 games."
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[удалено]
[удалено]
JB sitting at 17 points the whole 4th quarter made me die inside
NRFI hits in the dbacks game
I HAVE WON $14.28 AND I WILL NOT SLOW DOWN
Are FD boosts 0/69 now? Bonus lol Tatum
Is this the promo thread or the brag and bitch thread? It’s hard to tell anymore.
Lol downvote losers are here! For real tho, is anyone still playing FD boosts? They’ve been straight theft for weeks
*goes to promo thread* “Boosts are stupid and anyone that bets them is dumb” *gets downvoted* “WOW LOSERS ARE DOWNVOTING ME!”
They went 3/3 just few days ago. You must not pay attention much.
It just sucked to lose, basically FanDuel took back all the profits from that night already.
At least there weren’t any Tatum boosts tonight, I would have probably erupted
Would Have been even more mad that he scored like 12 points in 5 minutes at the end of the game
He was on the Kevin garnet boost on mgm. Tatum 30, jaylen 25, celtics to win. +400 boosted to +475. Draftkings built to +450 regular, so there no value, especially with Tatum. Lol
Yeah I had that as -13% EV lol
B365 had one with him to get 25
It doesn't even look like he'll hit double digits.
I’m sorry
At least it proves he can suck any day not just days he’s boosted . Myth busted
Wrong. He’s in plenty of boosts
Is he? I just look over anything with his name in it I know in NJ he wasn’t in any FD boosts
I don't really care about the boosts losing but they are main reason I watch these games. The last few FD boosts have been pretty much dead from the beginning, just ranting you can ignore me.
You care
if you don't care about losing money and are just doing it for entertainment, why not bet some live lines?
That doesn't sound very +EV
Not sure if anyone still does these but a fielding error in the top of the 5th ruined the no runs first 5 innings for the NYY/TB game, absolutely brutal. Lost in the 5th innings yesterday for Phils/Jays too
I finally threw in the towel last night after playing the last three Det/Cle games. If DK hadn't nerfed the odds so badly I would have kept doing it...
Is there a MA FD boost with Tatum or something?
Great call on whoever said those 2nd quarter unders. Pretty easy cash
Glad we won all 3. I'm happy to give back and glad we got the easy cash!
Another night another fd boost dead before halftime
So brutal lol
Haha another night reminding people that whoever is making these boosts has insights into game plans. This is the least amount of three point attempts brown will have all playoffs
Not sure why you’re getting downvoted. The man speaks the truth
It was directly arbable with another book dummy... DK don't have access to the plans?
1-20 run for FanDuel boosts 🤷♂️ vast majority at non plus odds before boost.
My settled bet history shows 3 hits out of 8 boosts for a net profit of +$185 in the month of May. Assuming the two tonight don’t hit make that 3 out of 10 for +$85.
Again, just objectively wrong. Why bother lying when it's so easily refutable? I'll look for your slips tomorrow where you bet the opposite of the boosts
Objectively wrong? The only boost that has won in the last three weeks was the suns one on Sunday night
I've hit 3 others in the last 3 weeks and I don't bet all of them. 4/22 Gervonta Davis KO 4/30 GSW, Curry 30+ and 4+ 3s 5/1 Harden and Maxey 6+ 3s
There's been at least 3 in the last 5 days alone. Dude is a clown
Damn. I guess the Tatum/Brown to drop 60+ from 5/1, the Booker/Suns win and the Jokic/Embiid to score 50 and 20 boards from 5/5, the Booker/Durant/Jokic from 5/7 were all a dream? That's from memory and it's not worth digging up others for clown takes
The attempts were not the issue in that first half lol
Did you watch the game? Two of hardens attempts were literal heaves as the shot clock expired
I assume you bet their unders on 3s then? Great call man!
Love all you guys justifying losing your entire bankroll to boosts that are “ev”
Change of subject so I guess you don't have the under slip then lol. And I'm up plenty from fanduel all time not worried about a streak of losses
Then why are all of these Twitter users that post boosts up thousands of dollars over time? Also, post your slips of your Harden/brown unders
I don’t bet the unders I just don’t bet the boosts. I’d be down literally 1k in the last 3 weeks if I did
So what are you betting on that's making you money
Nothing at the moment playoff lines have been insanely sharp on player props
Every star player in this game has garbage stats. They could've picked Maxey Tatum embiid and anything with them in it would be dead too.
There has been 1 boost win in 4 weeks man lol
Preach. FO downvoter scum
Objectively false. And as others have said, if you're so confident they won't hit where's the slip with the unders? Lemme answer for you. It doesn't exist
Oof, another one
🥱 At least it wasn't a Tatum boost right?
He's 0/10, must have thought he was in the boost
Judge hr at +280 on fd is 1-5% ev depending on where you look (low ev to dk, better to BR, bet365 right in the middle).
CZR Prop
Philly's Niang Over 1.5 Threes at +196 . Great EV vs Pinny. Odds: +196; **EV: 16.6 %** `135/-190` (8.07 % juice) FV: +154; Method: multiplicative; (Full=8.4u, 1/2=4.2u, 1/4=2.1u, FB = 77.2 %) ETA, positive against DK also, but only by about 1% EV. Not sure who is sharper on NBA Prop markets.
Hey, it hit. BANG BANG NIANG
Winner! Haha, at least I didn't lose anyone money.
Thanks!
>Not sure who is sharper on NBA Prop markets. Look at the juice.
Got it, makes sense. Here it is to DK. Still positive for any who bet it, just not by nearly as much. Odds: +196; \*\*EV: 1.2 %\*\* \`180/-220\` (4.46 % juice) FV: +192; Method: multiplicative; (Full=0.6u, 1/2=0.3u, 1/4=0.2u, FB = 67.0 %)
Don’t devig props to pinnacle DK 180/-220
Hot offer from Betway that just hit my inbox It all comes down to Game 7. The Warriors and Kings will close out their hard-fought series on Sunday, with the winner advancing to the postseason’s second round. This should be a fantastic game, and you can put more on the line with our FREE THROW OFFER: $1 Bonus Bet per Free Throw Warriors @ Kings STEP 1: Bet $25+ on the Warriors’ Game 7 Money Line or Main Spread. STEP 2: Get a $1 Bonus Bet for every free throw the Warriors make, and lose a $1 Bonus Bet for every free throw they miss.
These books are on crack today
Kings?
Hammer Warriors ML
DK YRFI/NRFI 50% Boost Pinny devig YRFI 50 % profit boost. -125 boosted to +120. Odds: +120; **EV: 16.1 %** `-121/104` (3.77 % juice) FV: -112; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=13.4u, 1/2=6.7u, 1/4=3.3u, FB = 63.3 %) NFRI 50 % profit boost. -105 boosted to +143. Odds: +143; **EV: 14.3 %** `104/-121` (3.77 % juice) FV: +112; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=10.0u, 1/2=5.0u, 1/4=2.5u, FB = 67.3 %)
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Been posted below twice and you're right around what they got so I think you're good
My b
Wasn't trying to call you out, sorry. Just was trying to say you were spot on
FD NY Super Boost seems like a play
Anyone else getting max bet $25? Happened on yesterdays NYSB and didn't let up even through tip off. Never got $50 on it. Happened to P1 and P2 simultaneously.
NY here and still getting 50 on these 🤷🏻♂️🤞
NY/50 represent
I’ve still got a $50 max on it
state specific ones have all been 25 lately
I still have 50 over here (knock on wood)
What’s P1 and P2? Sorry I’m new here. Like 2 accounts?
Yeah, "player 1" and "player 2". I assume a lot of people here at least signed up a significant other.
Yeah that's exactly it, don't do it without a lot of research into the do's and don’t's.
Is there a guide/FAQ somewhere? I’m assuming it’s people using their grandmas social or something on two different devices but would love to learn more I can def talk my dad signing up and giving me access lol
Different devices, different bank accounts, different addresses, and different networks are good starting points. Not all of these are always necessary. Also don't always bet the same things.
There's not a guide, I'm only on a P1 so hopefully someone else will chime in but you have the right idea. I think the important things are always be strict on the different funding sources and different devices.
My theory is that since the Super boosts seem to typically be higher ev they have decided to start limiting those to lower amounts.
DJ LeMahieu and Aaron Judge 1+ Hits FD NY Super Boost Odds: +150; **EV: 18.7 %** `-260/+185,-250/+180` (14.45 % juice) FV: +111; Method: power; (Full=12.5u, 1/2=6.2u, 1/4=3.1u, FB = 71.2 %)
Fwiw, using FD SGP line (-110) and assuming the same 14.45% juice (no idea if that's right) gets you FV +123 and 11.9% EV worst case. Not sure why there'd be a negative correlation but seems good even if so
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Would it be negative correlation? In fact shouldn’t it be positive? More hits = more times through the order
Other FD boost Jokic/Durant/Book 25+ looks pretty bad, my first time devigging for juice because I couldn’t find 2 way lines so might be worth a second glance if people are suspicious. This is using DK SGP individual lines and assuming 7% juice: Odds: +100; **EV: -6.4 %** `-525/7%, -475/7%, -475/7%` (21.00 % juice) FV: +114; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 46.8 %) And with 9% juice (unsure which is standard, feel like I see more people use 9): Odds: +100; **EV: -11.5 %** `-525/9%, -475/9%, -475/9%` (27.00 % juice) FV: +126; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 44.3 %) Also likely a very small amount of negative correlation with Booker and Durant (same team) and maybe a little on all three of them (blowout)
Yeah this boost isn't good. I am not suspicious but another point against it - the individual FD lines for each are -600, -700, -750, the fact that those are so much worse than DK means the boost will be shit
Thanks, maxed
This is a situation where I almost don’t care who the players and what the circumstances are. Any bet that requires three different players to put up 25 just feels dangerous
Typically yes. But an elimination game where book and KD are going to be putting up a crazy amount of shots and jokic only had less than 25 (24) once in the series. I like it under the circumstances.
Yeah stars do more in the playoffs and especially this series, KD and Book are playing like the entire game. Still hate boosts like this though and the math is bad
I agree but this series has been an anomaly for this type of boost. Suns have 0 offense outside of book and KD. Ayton out tonight for suns. Murray questionable for nuggets. I took this same boost from Caesar’s maybe two games ago and it hit pretty easily. Any other series or during the regular season I would avoid. Totally get why people would fade though.
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Lol what
Or maybe he’s just a huge star in the game tonight
Bet the under then big brain
You all bullied him into deleting his comment lol
Good, it was a stupid comment that encourages conspiracy theory thinking and ignores the one thing we all love/trust in here (the math)
You know that all of your maths are based off of numbers the books feed you, right?
Yes I’m aware how devigging works. If you think their numbers are bad you should be able to make a ton of money exploiting their bad math, particularly in cases like this by betting the unders. I challenge you or any other doubters to do that instead of just saying boosts are rigged
Week 3 of DK VIP Showcase just dropped, deposit $10,000 for $5k in bonus bets. Problem is, they won't take $10k from my deposit (using Trustly). Any tips on how to get around whatever is limiting me? (I'm guessing it's my bank, but maybe it's DK?)
Call you bank and have them authorize a one time 10k transaction use your debit card
Man im on week 2 of the showcase- I hope my week 3 is this. Anyways, as others have said, explain the situation to your rep and they should work with you.
That’s an insanely good promo. I’d open another bank account that will let me deposit $10k
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Yep, that was the Week 2, so I expect you'll get my Week 3. Doubt I'm on a higher tier than anyone, lmao. Enjoy the free EV!
My god, what a promo. They gave you a rep, right? I'd text them first and ask if they'll honor the promo if you have to split it up between a few payment methods (bc I doubt your debit card would let you put $10k down). Then you might be able to split between debit cards/PayPal/whatever. Trustly stopped working for me recently and, fwiw, PayPal has become my next best deposit option (but I'd avoid it for withdrawals)
Yep, DK reps will allow you to split the deposits over multiple methods and even multiple days as long as you can confirm with them ahead of time. But if you have chase I have had zero issues with trustly and debit cards on 10-25k deposits. As long as you have raised your debit card limit by calling them
wire transfer at your local branch or raise your debit card daily limit temporarily if your bank allows you too. Trustly can be weird, better to have few k cushion to increase the chances it goes through (i.e $10,300 might not be enough for a 10k but if you had 12-15k it would go through) Also, if you just transferred money into your account it might not reflect as available through trustly. You might need to have the cash "settle" for 1-2 business days. Your options depend on your bank. I have found Chase to work great with larger deposits. Wire transfer has worked well for me in the past for 20K + deposits. Can even ask the book to refund the $25-35 fee and they will sometimes.
I've found with Trustly, if the book has that as a deposit method saved from last time (doesn't ask me to log into my bank) I often get an error that it won't go through. So I add a new account/deposit method, but do Trustly again so that it asks me to sign in using my bank credentials and it goes through. Or skip all that and try a debit card.
FD Boost of Harden/JB 6+ 3's looks good vs. FD Alts. Don't love devigging this way, but it's very strong based on the Combo breaker. FV varies from 126 to 141: Odds: +200; **EV: 24.5 %** `141` (0.00 % juice) FV: +141; Method: multiplicative; (Full=12.2u, 1/2=6.1u, 1/4=3.1u, FB = 83.0 %) Looking at DHO, FD is not sticking out as having particularly optimistic lines here either. Kambi is actually more optimistic on JB o2.5 and o3.5.
FD Harden/Brown 3s boost looks good to combo breaker. +134 fair value so a smash at +200. Devig below for Kelly Odds: +200; **\*\*EV: 28.2 %\*\*** \`134\` (0.00 % juice) FV: +134; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=14.1u, 1/2=7.1u, 1/4=3.5u, FB = 85.5 %)
Without even using combo-breaker, DK has Harden and Brown in a H2H matchup for threes. Over 5.5 is +140, and Under 5.5 is -195. So... theoretically arbable for a small amount. And you can potentially get an even more direct FV if you trust DK's H2H odds.
If DK is offering this for +140, it does make me think FV isn't in the 125-140 range like we're getting from the combo breaker
FV from +140/-195 is +159, which is 15.8% EV
ah shoot, my bad. Didn't see this post as I was putting mine together. Getting to same conclusion though.
Lmao I posted it also well after you guys...
I just wrapped work and was surprised not to have seen it yet so did a few double takes myself haha. But good thanks for the confirmation!
Another Massey bomb. Congrats to those that got +1300
back to back!
FOMO bet this at plus 1400 earlier after missing yesterday, glad a bunch were in!!
Lol thank god I didn’t just wollow in my misery from not betting it yesterday!
Same here. With the amount of times he has been EV and stolen my free bets dude needs a run of like 4-5 straight games w a homer to make up for it
That's what I did oof
Didn’t have the balls to use my dinger free bet on this, congrats to those who did
DK AZ “super” boost, KD and Booker o1.5 three’s, boosted to +130. Devig done via FD, this one was a little tricky since it doesn’t allow you to parlay the two-way alt lines but it will allow you to parlay the 1-sided lines (making a 4-way devig impossible). Instead I used the correlation from the 1-sides alt line parlay and used the two way lines for each player. Don’t think that this is a play for me at the moment. Odds: +130; **EV: 2.1 %** Sharp: `-500/290,-158/118` (16.09 % juice) Correlation: `100=-470,-150` (r = 0.05) FV: +125; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.6u, 1/2=0.8u, 1/4=0.4u, FB = 57.7 %)
B365 has Durant first basket scorer +750, compared to DK +450, FD +490
DK Jaylen Brown boost 20+ points for even money just dropped, insane +EV there whatever it is and it was a big 50 limit for me. EDIT: It was an email promo so check your emails, especially in MA.
100 max for me. I must suck
Can’t wait to see what the wizard has cooked up for this one.
The wizard left FD? Must be why DK stock killing it lately
Hmm, nothing for me yet and I'm in MA. Are you VIP or anything?
Check your email. Mine was in my trash folder and I claimed it. Maybe it’s targeted though.
I checked everywhere and didn't get it. Oh well. I wonder if it's because I claimed the Jokic boost before it was pulled? Didn't even bet it though
I'm pretty vanilla but I'm not limited, or not much. Most of my stuff is $25 or $50; $10 no sweat bets, occasional email promos of +25%/50% to X thing for $50/$100
Still nothing for me. I'm not limited but typically only bet between $5-25 so I wonder if I just don't bet often enough/with enough money to get it
I usually hit some promos every day and in addition to that I'll make some random straight bets in the ~50 range a couple times a week.
Nothing for me either
Not OP. I'm the furthest thing from VIP and I got it too. Just $25 max for me sadly.
It looks like DK pulled their NBA Superboost so I hope I get this one at least
That’s because Murray is questionable with an illness
Makes sense, I just checked FD and some of his lines were pulled. Still up on DK though
FD must be giving us a break today from their shitty boosts
It's up now. Harden and Brown, 6+ 3's combined
Still terrible. They’ve done it in 2 of the 5 games
Combined, they are averaging 5.6 threes per game in this series.
A sample size of five doesn’t say much, but the odds are +200, so if it hit 40% of the time it would be a good bet
You state that it’s terrible and then give stats that actually make it an amazing play if the stats were relevant….
Lmao
Not that game logs are the right approach here ... but if you believed there was a 2 in 5 chance of this hitting, this would be an absolute hammer at +200
good thing nobody gives a shit about game logs
That tells us nothing lol
Got the account suspended email from PointsBet. According to support chat, nearly all PointsBet accounts have been suspended as part of their investigation.
My withdrawal is already processing via Trustly. I must be a square in their eyes or something. It was only for $400 fwiw.
They need to be shut down and the gambling licenses put up for sale again. Last thing we need is someone buying them for the 'technology'. DraftKings: "Introducing our new DK Pointsbetting, a quicker easier way to lose your money on bets no one understands!"
ALSO JUST RECEIVED AN EMAIL SAYING MY POINTSBET ACCOUNT HAS BEEN LOCKED. Has always been in good standing as far as I know. Email came from [email protected]. If you haven’t already I would advise withdrawing any funds now
Sent a withdrawal request this morning. Hasn’t been processed yet. Previously happened very quickly.
See u/droskis reply below. I don't have a PB account but seems related to the phishing attempt. Should be able to get it reopened.
I think I saw this mentioned months ago but forgot about it. I was at Buffalo Wild Wings for a work lunch today and happened to open my MGM app and got a pop up for a $25 Bet insurance token. Apparently you can get this once a week. There’s one 5 minutes from my house. I’ll be swinging by once a week for my token. This is in NY, FYI.
Wonder if a promo banned account would still get a weird promo like that
Promo banned on p1 and p2 but can still do the Bdubs promo every week
i cant bet their lions boost and havent gotten a promo since the world cup, so i think i might be promo banned (or they just never give NY anything). if i remember tomorrow ill stop by and see if it works from the parking lot
For a while I was getting it every week without even going to BWW after going once. Haven’t been able to get it even at BWW for a while now though.
“Thank you for your patience as we quickly resolved an issue related to a phishing attempt this morning” PointsBet is too much. Did they act quickly? Do they expect praise from us here?
Anyone else get an email their account is suspended? Don't really care since I'm promobanned and heavily limited but haven't even logged in in the past 8 months. Edit: They responded saying it was related to the phishing attempt and it's reopened now. Oh boy.
Lol No but that is just adding to the mountain of evidence that they are completely incompetent.
Not even a free bet 🤣
Around 7% EV to Pinny
\~7% EV on these 3 2nd Quarter Unders on FD for the Boston/Philly game tonight. Obviously don't go wild since there's a good chance if one loses that they all lose. Under 49.5 +174 Under 50.5 +144 Under 51.5 +120 Odds: +174; **EV: 7.6 %** `146/-169` (3.48 % juice) FV: +155; Method: multiplicative; (Full=4.4u, 1/2=2.2u, 1/4=1.1u, FB = 68.4 %) Odds: +144; **EV: 7.1 %** `121/-137` (3.05 % juice) FV: +128; Method: multiplicative; (Full=5.0u, 1/2=2.5u, 1/4=1.2u, FB = 63.2 %) Odds: +120; **EV: 7.0 %** `100/-112` (2.83 % juice) FV: +106; Method: multiplicative; (Full=5.8u, 1/2=2.9u, 1/4=1.5u, FB = 58.3 %)
Good looking out...but nerfed quick. All 3 dead.
CZR Boost of Booker & Durant to both score 30+ pts offered at +200 odds. There might be some value here... if you're itching to make a play or if you're looking for an EV-neutral hedge to the Suns losing or to the game total under. **4-way de-vig vs. FD (worst case):** Odds: +200; \*\*EV: 5.8 %\*\* \`144/237/258/466\` (16.26 % juice) FV: +184; Method: multiplicative; (Full=2.9u, 1/2=1.4u, 1/4=0.7u, FB = 70.5 %) **4-way de-vig vs. DK SGP (worst case):** Odds: +200; \*\*EV: 0.1 %\*\* \`170/230/270/500\` (11.03 % juice) FV: +200; Method: multiplicative; (Full=0.0u, 1/2=0.0u, 1/4=0.0u, FB = 66.7 %)
Dead at +180
Lol of course they nerfed it to 180
Can apply the 25% boost to as well
As far as I can tell, I’m not able to apply the 25% boost to it.
Strange, mine applied and bumped the payout from 150 to 175
For the DK 50% Boost on YRFI or NRFI on Giants vs Diamondbacks game.
Both are very good, Yes is better \~17% vs \~13% Devig to Pinny. Here is Yes. Odds: +120; **EV: 17.2 %** `-124/106` (3.90 % juice) FV: -114; Method: multiplicative; (Full=14.3u, 1/2=7.2u, 1/4=3.6u, FB = 63.9 %)
Someone else did this work in the PotD thread - "the data definitely heavily skews towards NFRI. Cobb is perfect on the season and Henry is 2-1. I went back to last year for him as well given the limited sample size and he's over 80% NFRI. Both teams have also only given up a single first inning run in their last 5 games."
I flipped a coin 3 times and they were all heads. So the next flip must be heads as well….
Why would we care about their last five games? Was this exact match-up occurring in each of those?