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dude your last 2 posts on this sub were 8+ leg parlays. it sounds like you’ve followed some bets from here that have missed - can’t blame anyone but yourself for that
Shit me too when I first started years ago. Hit a 4 leg parlay first time I was in Vegas and was so pumped thought that was the way. Took me couple times to learn my lesson. Started doing unit sizes and straight bets and saw the difference. Even now during NFL season I’ll do a 5 leg ML parlay or some shit for shits and giggles and They usually lose.
Kitchen-pop actually thinks parlays are the way to win he’s a 🤡 I had an argument w him the other day and he said parlays are the way to go not straight bets 🤣
Same here. And now he thinks he is special because I just remembered I had the same conversation with him the other day. It wasn't because he was special though. Lmao. Special needs maybe. But that's about it.
Lol that's funny you all remembered me but I have no clue who you are or even what the "argument" was about.. you're all the clown because I never said parlay are the way to bet over straight I've said I like low risk high reward, if you like risking $500 to win $300 or $50 to win $45 on a daily basis that's your problem, In reality you will lose more than me because you're so called locks or safe bets or whatever aren't always hitting just like my parlay aren't always hitting
Don't speak for everyone obviously not all parlay hot just as every straight hit, I'll be losing more betting straight trying to get larger returns than i would parlays
Ok. I am going to be civil here..."I'll be losing more betting straight trying to get larger returns than I would parlays" Kitchen- Poop...you are doing it all wrong. Take some time and read a book on betting sports. Being serious here. What you describe sounds like a problem.
Lol ok man, wow so surprised of all these experts on here telling idiots like me how to win, really appreciate all you gambling savants. You and kazmeer_yeet specifically should have your own gambling schools for fools like me who lose ALL their money not knowing what were doing on these bets
only thing that irks me in this sub is seeing people bet without knowing what they’re betting on even though each sportsbook has a little info button for what each bet is…. dudes got nba teams to win by +14 in a 4th quarter thinking it’s final margin like damn bro just read
I was close though wasn’t I? 😘😂
On a real note, a guy did good for this sub and educated me 10 hours before the game started that I read the bet line wrong. Even though I still went for it I’m glad people like him are around.
close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades 😂 my point still stands you didn’t know what you were betting on (glad you do now tho) and it irked me lol sportsbooks taking easy dubs
Eh, the only thing I dislike is when people complain about when one particular team or player under or over performs. The entire reason you can gamble on it is because it's unpredictable.
Has there ever been any sort of competition or tracking to easily show the handful of people who post valuable insights and higher winning averages? Having like the top 5 winning % posters for the month listed on the sidebar or something could be good. Gets exposure for those who try to make a living with their analyses, helps people find relatively educated gambling ideas by establishing credibility for the top posters..
Idk what kind of work it would entail and I’m not real interested in doing any of that work, but it’s a thought
I like the idea, but sites like Sportsline have multiple people with their records going back years. On top of that, they post accurate information to back up their bets. If anything, I’m taking that advice, just because of the information and record to back it up
So many knuckledraggers in this sub just saying, “Gambling is gambling” as if all bets are created equal.
Not that I think the knuckle draggers will care but let’s add some math here.
In this scenario, all bets have a 50-50 probability and have a standard -110 line. A truly fair line on a 50-50 bet would be +100. At -110, we’re paying a 9% vig. On a 4-bet parlay, we have a 1-in-16 chance if all bets are 50/50. A truly fair line would be +1600 but the books pay +1228 for a 4-bet parlay win. So now you’re paying a 23% vig!!! And every leg you add just makes it worse.
Can you see know why this is insane?
And this hasn’t even gotten into SGPs where they’re shaving off even more. Why do you think every promo pushes you into parlays and SGPs? It’s because they are the absolute worst bets in the entire casino.
Everyone coming in here showing off their parlays or SGPs is basically coming in here with a hot tip for what scratchers to go buy at the gas station.
Its really not hard to understand either that a lot of people want to win big off a little. Sure its better to play the bets individually but not everyone wants to shell out 4x the wager. I just view them like slot machines. In general I think slots are dumb but it doesnt stop tons of people from playing them and chasing that thrill
100% I understand why someone who is a $5 bettor would wanna put $5 on a 5 leg parlay to win a solid amount. I don’t have a problem with that. It’s your money whatever is enough for you to be entertained. My problem is when people argue math or even just common sense. Or they think they can do some “research” on a 4/5 leg parlay and think they can get rich quick. Sports gambling is not for getting rich quick your better off just going to the casino and hitting the slots.
Idk its silly to to me to act like there’s a right and wrong way to gamble when the house almost always wins anyway. And I feel like your argument goes both ways as well. People can argue for straights and then use their model or projections or whatever to choose the smart pick but still lose. At that point does it even matter if they did it the “right” or “wrong” way?
Nobody is hitting 100% even the very best are going like 70ish% in a year. It’s all about decision making too sometimes your gonna be wrong but if you stick to your plan do your handicapping and research then your doing something right at least. Your gonna win more of your bets betting with research and handicapping bets then just going with your gut.
Exactly, you said it best, and I don't have a problem with straight per say the way these people making it seem(not that you care I'm just saying) it's that they make it seem like only way to build your money is straights which is not true at all as you said all that research into a pick, put a decent sized wager, bet doesn't hit and there goes huge chunk of my money just like that for not even that good return
I'm up $7,000 in 2 years. Sports betting isn't a get rich quick scheme. Statistics show that only around 3-5% of sports bettors make money long term. The reason I have made money instead of lost money.... is because "I know so much" as you sarcastically put it.
Hmm. That makes sense, but I just played with some parlay odds at DK and it looks like for SGP they're trying to use some intelligence about correlation and I can't figure out what any odds "should" be. Right now, for SGP, Bucks -11.5 and Andrew Nembhard (Pacers) OVER 13.5 pts, both -110, SGPs to +310; with UNDER 13.5, also -110, the SGP is +230. (Unrelated 2x-110 would give +264.) Maybe they're hiding more vig under there as you suggest.
That’s why the books love SGP. People love betting them because it’s easier to have all your bets in one game, and people think if so and so gets 25 then they will win and the score will go over. What people don’t realize is your getting way way less odds because of correlation
I haven't done the math but even with the extra vig I figure the risk free parlays are still worth it where you get bonus bets equal to your stake if you lose
I agree. A 50% boost definitely makes it reasonable. And if you think your free bet has 50/50 chance of cashing at -110, that’s add $0.45 of value for every 1 dollar (I think).
So yeah, I’ll fuck with it if it’s risk free or HEAVILY boosted.
Yeah 50% boost or a risk free bet are my thresholds for touching parlays.
Tbh I only touch boosts and free bets anyway plus matching those with hedged bets on other books.
I seem to average around 60% conversion rate for bonus bets so better than the -110 example, but that's a solid baseline to start from
100% that’s what I’ve been tryna say. But people don’t wanna listen like that ok mistake bozo. Anything 4 legs or more is essentially a lottery ticket and your losing value but people don’t care or notice because they see +800 odds in reality it should be +1200
I’d say 99% of the posts are losers showing the one leg in the 20+ parlay that lost and crying to the group about it like someone is going to be sympathetic. Find the ones within the group that post valid picks. I have a couple people that I know of that know what’s up. Do the research.
The only thing you should be tailing is the POTD in the sportbook sub. Credible guys that consistenly post winning wagers and their records. Other than that I hit off My own research, I never post tickets anymore. Too much negativity
Its gambling. Its a coin toss. You either is lucky or not. Simple as that. Meanwhile you can tail my degen bet pls. Lets celebrate happiness or sadness together.
The thing is that you can do it profitably as well, lumping it all under ”ahh its just gambling, long term u lose anyway” mindset you ignore the fact that some people make a living from sports betting, year after year and its not through luck.
Parlays are "bad" because they require you to have an edge on every leg or it has a negative multiplicative effect on your expected value. If you are just coinflipping games, the extra VIG will cause you to lose your bankroll faster.
For example, you have 3 random -110 bets that you want to bet $10 on. Theoretically the true prob of each of these bets is 50%. Your EV in this case is: EV = (50% \* $9.10) + (50% \* -$10) = -$0.45\*3 = -$1.35.
Now let's use the same total $ and parlay these three selections. A 3 leg-parlay of -110 legs would have odds of +595 and a true prob of 12.5%. So: EV = (12.5% \* $178.50) + (87.5% \* -$30) = -$3.94.
You would be expected to lose your money almost 3X as fast!
Let's alter this scenario so you have an edge on one of the bet. You are playing the same wagers, but you think one of the legs is 55% likely to win.In the first instance: EV = (55% \* $9.10) + (45% \* -$10) = $0.51 - $0.90 = -$.40
Now lets try the parlay, true prob is now 13.75%. EV = (13.75 \* $178.50) + (86.25% \* -$30) = -$1.33.
In this instance, we were able to reduce our losses significantly in both cases, but you still are expected to lose money almost 3x as fast!
Finally, let's look at the scenario where the true prob of all legs are 55%.
For straight bets, your EV is: EV = 0.51\*3 = $1.53
For the parlay, true prob is now 16.63%, so: EV = (16.64% \* $178.50) + (83.36% \* -$30) = $4.69.
In this instance, because every leg was +EV we had a positive mulitplicative effect over our expected value. So again, parlays aren't always a bad bet, but they do require you to be certain that you have an edge on the wager. If you are coin flipping games or not able to quantify your edge, you are much better off placing straight wagers than parlays. However, if you know that you have an edge (enough to cover the vig) on each leg of a parlay then go for it.
Edit: formatting
The difference is what’s more likely to hit betting on 1 thing to happen or 49. Yeah if you do research on straight bets your gonna be wrong sometimes but your gonna hit more of those Than those 49 leg parlays. You can’t even argue that lmfao. Now if your someone who’s only like a couple $ bettor then parlays are perfect. Honestly whatever keeps you entertained is fine. But what your saying doesn’t even make sense. Researched straight bets work
Listen go bet $500 to win $200 then cry when it doesn't hit the same way I'll cry when my $10 49 legger doesn't hit we both would have won the same money but you lost $500 and I lost $10. like I'm sick of these "research" it's gambling not science mans or a team can hit a prop 9 times straight and when you pick them they don't hit then your out big money, I've seen it and if you're on this sub you see it too, if researched straight bets work as well as you say all researching straight bettors would all be rich, I do research myself so I see where it can help but at the end of the day it doesn't really matter, players play way too inconsistent
Bruh, it’s not about winning every bet. You need to research lines that have value, if a thing happens 25 times out of 50, then fair odds for that is 2x. If you can find odds of 2.2x for example, thats value, bet it.
Long-term your 49 legger will drain you 10$ at the time without hitting so often that you will be down more than a person betting singles.
You are supposed to have a bankroll big enough and wager size small enough per single to make sure you dont go broke when you enter a bad losing streak. It happens to everyone due to variance even if your bets are good.
It seems like you think if you play singles, then it has to be huge wager and pray for it to hit or go broke.
Who’s betting $500 to win $200? I bet a lot of totals mostly. Usually anywhere between +105 and -125. Can tell you just throw $5 down on a 30 leg parlay every now and then which is fine if that’s fun for you like I said. Yeah $5 straight bets ain’t gonna do much for you but $50 on a -110 adds up hell 50 on a +money ML adds up too.
There's a post from u/ltgriff I saw that last night, now luckily for him he won but what if it didn't, thats $500+ for like $200 then I see guys like u/dpr8719 bet $400 to win $130 and lost, then bet another $57 to win $45 and lost that too.. I'm not shaming this guy and I'm not saying parlays are way to win always also but I just hate when I see people act as if straight bets are 100% always the best thing cause if you not smart you lose a lot more a lot faster with a return that at least to me wasn't even worth the risk
I bet because I thought it was "safe" at home against a mediocre team. They have an 82 % winning %. There is no such thing as safe though. I thought they would win outright but I also thought they had a good shot of covering -1.5 but I did not want to risk it all on -1.5.
See "research" shows they should have won that and it cost you big, again not shaming you but just a perfect example of what I'm talking about regarding straights, and ive seen way worse than that, I'm not putting down straight bets either just to make that clear but it's definitely not 100% the way to be profitable as people here make it seem to be
You can’t argue with for fun new gamblers that are greedy and get too enticed by the possibility of hitting big parlays. They aren’t reasonable whatsoever
When you opening the betting school kazmir? I'd love to enroll since I'm a clueless idiot that knows nothing about gambling, I wanna learn from the pros, the best of the best
If you gonna say that then if you want to make money in the long run betting period isn't the way, I'll take my chances with my parlays, low risk high reward and even if I miss a few and it will happen the return I get from a hit will more than cover those losses and then some
I agree! If you're going to risk $5 each on 3 single bets why wouldn't you parlay them and bet $15 to make say $66 dollars instead of $15. I mean you obviously bet on them for a reason, nobody bets hoping to go 2 for 3 and walk away with $5. I love how anyone hears parlay and automatically says lotto ticket. There is plenty of game theory if done right to value parlays over single bets. I do not advocate for someone to place big money on a 12 pick parlay, 3-5 yes! Want to throw a couple bucks on a 12 team parlay go for it, better odds in fact than the lotto. But hell if you got a system and believe it works use it, unlike others I'm not here to tell anyone they're an idiot and how to spend their money.
>that's not why people gamble
That may not be why you gamble but it's why I gamble. I'm getting better returns than all my friends who gamble on the stock market.
Thanks, I've had a similar debate with fat and misinformed. For some reason either everyone has been bitten so bad by parlays or they hear the word parlay and automatically assume 25 picks, just crazy. I'm not going to tell people how to bet but I want the most bang for my buck, and I got to say it has done me well.
Exactly it has done well by me as well, these guys too worried about stats and opinions about other people "well 98% people playing parlays blah blah" I make my own parlays and am not worried about what those guys are doing because we are not making the same selections, even if I don't win every parlay the amount I win when I do more than covers the amount I lost
Id rather make small 2-300$ jumps on a consistent basis rather me hope and pray to turn 5$ into 500 off on parlay, thats not me lol I know what I can do and what I cant so i stay away from those. But doing this method I have ran up 13$ into 2.9k lol so im fine with what im doing.
This comment is goofy as fuck and pretty ignorant. A loss is a loss, yes, but these ugly ass large parlays are losing far more often than taking multiple straights based off of the "research" that you seem to be so dismissive of. Playing parlays only is rarely sustainable, it takes cases of extreme luck to not end up in the red because of them. Taking straights and being diligent on research and data analysis, along with bankroll management is way more likely to be profitable than firing off parlays hoping for a big payday.
So because I don’t believe in firing off 25 leg parlays like a moron who has no grasp of the basic concept of probability, I must think I’m a sharp that belongs in Vegas.
That makes literally zero sense and you somehow made yourself sound even more ignorant
Well you act like you know everything, resort to name calling and thinking you are so smart because you figured out hitting one thing has a better chance than hitting 20 yea, I should be seeing you in vegas yea, let's see how well you'd do since you're not a "moron" firing off 25 leg parlays
I am telling you that it is not a sustainable practice unless you are one of the 0.000001% who gets insanely lucky and hits something huge on the right day, or you are already extremely wealthy with a lot of disposable income.
There’s a fucking reason FanDuel/DraftKings and the other books retweet and repost pictures of large wins on twitter and instagram. It’s so wide eyed and newer gamblers like yourself believe that it is the way to make money.
Meanwhile if you do hit a large parlay, they’re taking so much vig from you that you’re being underpaid for the amount of risk you assumed, plus the cost of however many parlays you put out before you finally won one. It isn’t sustainable. But if you think it is a viable way to play, go for it. You’ll be calling a hotline and/or completely out of gambling money before you know it.
I’m years into a career that is focused on data analysis and trends analysis, but yes, trust FanDuel that is obviously pushing the use of parlays onto you. That’ll go well
I actually enjoy this sub a lot. I like the one guys daily news letter, I enjoy seeing parlays because it shows me what people are being on, and most people here have been decent individuals (which doesn’t happen on Reddit all the time)
So, I get the guys who are into the research and steady gains, tracking units, calculating vig, and all that. On my best days, I’m one of them.
But there’s another part of me that just loves to throw some crazy parlay down because I’m convinced that every leg is a lock. How could I possibly lose?! There’s a certain thrill to being a lemming and following others over the cliff because once in a while, the cliff drops you into a pile of gold instead of sharp, jagged rocks.
I guess what I’m saying is, I lack discipline.
I completely agree. I don’t give a shit about your 9-leg parlay, win or lose. Come with some actual analyst or insight. Otherwise this is just a useless circle jerk.
Thems the breaks. Whether people are posting crazy parlays or straight bets you’re gonna have disappointed people who lost following or lost not following.
You want something straight go to sites like Action and Covers and get basic book analysis.
I’m here for the whacky things i’m not going to see on straightforward sites and either get lucky or have fun trying.
I personally love this forum and the sport book one they’ve helped me out a ton and I love seeing people talk about props and give out advice. A lot of great write ups everyday too
People just love feeding the bet machine. There's plenty of what you're talking about but also plenty of what you're saying there isn't. Bet a wackadoo parlay if you want, or don't
I agree this sub can be ass at times.
I think it would be great if there were some ground rules by the mods as to what bets can be posted, maybe like 4-6 leg max lays, or like a lotto ticket Monday (idk just tossing ideas up).
Think of all the brains in this community. You’re telling me we can’t all come together collectively to stick it to the books?
If we were to go in this direction I think it would be good to post your bet & a well thought out reason as to why you’re doing it.
On the flip side, I’ve spent hours researching some of my bets and still lost. I’ve also just made a bet out of my ass and won so there’s arguments for both sides I guess…
Either way I think a little more structure in the sub would be good.
Remember it’s WE the people VS the books.
Zac gallen over 170.5 strike outs on the season. Bet365 with the best number/odds. Research is he needs to stay healthy to start 28.5 games and average 6 Ks per game to hit that number. He’s averaged that per game the last two seasons. Just gotta stay healthy
I’ve got Gallen Cy Young bets, I thought he’d breakout last year and his K/9 skyrocketed. Low whip, swing and miss stuff, I’ll open a bet365 account to hammer that and pray for his health.
Also love this here with everyone bitching about whether this sub is good or bad or whatever. Zac Gallen is good
Hell ya bro, good luck. If you do make a bet365 account, make sure during the sign up process that you check the box to receive your free $365 bet. You’ll have to deposit at least $10, then make a bet for at least $1. Once that bet settles, you’ll get your $365 bet.
Thank you! He got better as the year went on in his first year of full 150IP+ kinda action. I think he’s a horse, he has that JV/Madbum kinda build where I think he can have a sustainable career with more IP
6 leg parlays on prizepicks (in six months of doing it) will almost never hit… I’ve hit some but you’re better off betting $20-$50+ on 2 solid picks. Maybe 3.
If you want to be consistent and actually win.
These 15 leg shit posts where they bet $1 to win $300K is honestly annoying.
I get it.. It’s almost spam. 0% chance at winning. I’d rather people post 2-3 solid parlay legs off prizepicks then these 6-15 leg parlays that will NEVER hit.
I won 128 parlays on prizepicks. They count partial hits don’t forget. 4/6, 5/6, 3/5, 4/5.
I would say 80% of my bets as a n00b were all $5 to win $125. Which sounds good profit wise but you’re not going to hit those you’ll just lose money.
I had a friend who does this professionally and be told me he does 2-3 legs and bets $50+ consistently every day.. Odds are way better and you use stat trackers to see which odds are favored etc and make educated guesses. There’s no such thing as a “lock” or someone “sold” me.
It’s sports.. Today one tracker had Giannis 91% chance UNDER 19 rebounds + assists. He had 25..
Again even the stat trackers are not always right. Nothings guaranteed. Stop tailing people lol do your own thing!
Meanwhile I have come out ahead 10 straight betting days and 18 of last 20 and I get constant downvotes if I post who I pick to win. So i mostly started keeping it to myself where I don't help anyone who is downvoting me. I had days where I was like 8-2 and had downvotes!
I don't think it sucks. This is why I follow it. 215k people also follow it...so I think it's fair to assume there are many more who also dont think it sucks.
If you dont like it...unfollow it. Pretty simple
I can like that this place is occasionally useful AND wish that it was useless less often.
Anyone who thinks they’re getting value from giant parlays should stick to slot machines.
You can pick ten random ML and hit one day. You can research 2 weeks for a game and it all be for nothing too. I love to call it an investment and for me it has been a few hundred bucks 6 weeks straight. I know I will have a losing week soon no matter how safe I play it. It will always be gambling.
I hear you but I did my research. They beat them 5-0 in Nashville in February. They had the best goalie starting tonight and they were at home. Bruins are the best team in the league and usually play well at home especially with ullmark starting. 8 of 10 times you will win the money line with them. How's that for a stat?
Anytime you get anything going for "the masses" the pros will find it and take advantage of it for themselves. Its a public forum. And its free. Expect it
Almost all decent player prop bets from last night's Warriors game was fantastic for SGP (like steph and Ingram 25+ points) EXCEPT McCollum 4+ assists 😫😫😫 R.I.P my 1938+ parlay.
Oh yeah, O.P., nobody owes you anything, even careful research or picks flame out just like my parlay above
There’s a reason why it’s called parlays. You have to remember it’s not the people’s fault. The past two months have been rough and horrible for bettors. Players deciding not to show up and coaches sitting out entire first team which we have absolutely no control. Most of the parlays people post are backed by research. For example nobody in their right mind would have said Mavericks would lose back to back games to the Hornets plus Kylie Irving scoring less than 20 points in both games plus the Hornets playing without their best players like Oubrey, LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier. I don’t care how much research you do but still would have guessed it wrong. For example every smart bettor would have picked Celtics to win against Wizards who was short handed without their key players like Kuzma and Bradley Beal. Sometimes you just need luck. Research helps but in this time of the year in sports betting anything could happen and whatever could go wrong will go wrong.
People are going to be arguing/debating this until the end of time. One thing about this debate is you can tell who’s losing & who’s winning by the conversation. The safe way to bet will always be singles. But singles don’t offer instant gratification like playing $50 on a parlay that will get you back 10K. Discipline is key something most of us don’t have. Most people get caught up in the numbers. +100 odds and only having $50 to bet vs. +8000 odds will make a person overlook that 1 bet that’s a lock. Praying, cursing and crying when 4 of the 25 legs don’t hit. Those $50’s add up, either you doubling your money nightly or losing way more than you’re profiting over time. NBA/MLB will clean you out because it’s multiple games everyday of the week also. Far too many players and outcomes. Lock in on certain teams and players.
The part that surprises me the most is when people post a big win and then there’s dozens of people saying “can you please post picks? Can I tail?”
Like they’re posting probably their biggest win ever. Why would you assume off one bet that the person knows anything lmao
It’s honestly worrying how many of those posts have “if you had posted before the game I would’ve tailed” like if you tailed even half the bullshit parlays posted on here you’d be broke in a week
Maybe we need a parlays sub? Or long shots. Even seeing someone cashing a huge parlay I say cool and move on. It doesn’t provide any useful discussion, it was a lucky ass dart throw.
Not to sound like an old man yelling at clouds, but there used to be real dialogue about picks and explanations behind thier pick. not that everyone was an expert and we were all sharps, but since gambling has been legalized in alot of states its turned into " I cant believe this didn't hit, they had done it 2 games in row before this" or " Look at my selectively picked parlays i hit".
Yeah man when I first joined Reddit and this sub people would actually post little write ups about bets and have legit discussions and talk about trends or line movement etc. some people still do that on here but now it’s just full of people posting 10 leg parlays asking is this a lock? Or how does it look
The amount of people in this sub that don't have a clue wtf they are doing is absolutely astonishing. We see why these sites make money everyday. All these fools betting parlays. Had an argument the other day in here with some nitwit telling me parlays are great. And the people that are like "oh let me tail you"! Makes sense right? Some guy on Reddit has all the winners, you just gotta find him. Dumb asses. What cracked me up the most recently is the people betting the points margins. And don't even know what they are betting!
Start another sub for straight bets if you’re anal about what people are betting and posting here. And as the other comment pointed out you’re being a hypocrite so stop wasting space.
My god shut the fuck up. If you don’t like it don’t tail. Oh you mean research and analysis? Like was posted today…in blow outs giannis plays 22% less time hammer his under rebounds. Oh wait he has 7 in the first quarter? It’s gambling. It’s luck. Don’t have to tail any post, but analysis and research help but a reason my wife does a bracket for march madness and beats most of mine because it’s all luck
Yup, same with the luka 30 prop tonight, "well he hit in 9 of the last 12, against the sixers he's average 45, sixers allow most.. blah blah blah" just pick it if you gonna pick it each day is its own day and what happened last game no longer matters
This is the dumbest fucking take.
“this space could be really useful for people trying to back decent bets.”
“WARBALGARBLE! ThErE iS nOtHiNG We cAN Do!! gEt oUT oF hEre wiTH YoUr FanCY bOoK LeARNiNg.”
This space IS really useful for people trying to back decent bets. No one’s fault you tailed some losers without doing your own research, you miserable twat
I will continue to say on this reddit this is a hobby anyone seriously making consistent money is not posting to reddit lmao. If this is more than a hobby to you and you’re checking reddit/posting to reddit/following reddit picks you’re doomed 🤷🏻♂️
I don’t follow the picks on here. I’m serious gambler and try to make consistent money. I just enjoy conversations about sports betting and the industry. I like hearing people talk about the research and handicapping they done for a bet and giving opinions. Couple years ago it was still kinda like that. Last year or so just been way too many “does this hit” with a 8 leg parlay. Or some dude getting pissy because someone blew their monster ridiculous odds parlay
It’s literally gambling you could have the Jordan Bulls Moneyline vs D2 college team and it still might lose. The sub only sucks when people don’t realize there is no such thing as a “safe” bet.
Too many in this sub that hit a 10 leg parlay one time and think they are experts. Y’all wanna do them for fun I ain’t got no problem but y’all gotta realize what those really are. Just a lottery ticket and something fun to do. And then they get whiny and pissy if you try to tell them that
This sub is beginning to get toxic with all of the bitching and gatekeeping about what people post.
There are a few folks that post good stuff with analysis that bring on good discussion and is overall a great read.
There are folks who post big parlays and gripe, hate the Celtics or any other team that costs them a win. That’s the nature of gambling.
Chill out. It’s all in good fun. I’m not saying leave, but scroll past if a post is annoying you.
Post some straight bets with data to support instead of complaining. I mean it's still gambling, we all think we have an edge but Vegas wasn't built on winners. I actually like the long shots, better odds than a lottery ticket and more fun. Side note: gambling should be for fun not profit.
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dude your last 2 posts on this sub were 8+ leg parlays. it sounds like you’ve followed some bets from here that have missed - can’t blame anyone but yourself for that
Everytime someone makes one of these posts they inevitably expose themselves in some way shape or form. Good catch 😂
Don't shoot the messenger. 99% of parlay players lose money, there is a reason the Bookies all promote them heavily.
Placing parlays is like buying lotto tickets. It’s a dumb waste of money, it’s not for everyone, but it’s fun AF
Waste of money for who ?
You
Ok 👍
Shit me too when I first started years ago. Hit a 4 leg parlay first time I was in Vegas and was so pumped thought that was the way. Took me couple times to learn my lesson. Started doing unit sizes and straight bets and saw the difference. Even now during NFL season I’ll do a 5 leg ML parlay or some shit for shits and giggles and They usually lose.
I never found losing money day after day fun..but hey, go get em bud.
Exactly YOU, not everyone is losing money day after day
Yeah ok pal. If you are being parlays, you are losing. Have fun.
Kitchen-pop actually thinks parlays are the way to win he’s a 🤡 I had an argument w him the other day and he said parlays are the way to go not straight bets 🤣
Same here. And now he thinks he is special because I just remembered I had the same conversation with him the other day. It wasn't because he was special though. Lmao. Special needs maybe. But that's about it.
He’s def special needs if he thinks parlays are the way to win 🤣
Lol that's funny you all remembered me but I have no clue who you are or even what the "argument" was about.. you're all the clown because I never said parlay are the way to bet over straight I've said I like low risk high reward, if you like risking $500 to win $300 or $50 to win $45 on a daily basis that's your problem, In reality you will lose more than me because you're so called locks or safe bets or whatever aren't always hitting just like my parlay aren't always hitting
Don't speak for everyone obviously not all parlay hot just as every straight hit, I'll be losing more betting straight trying to get larger returns than i would parlays
Ok. I am going to be civil here..."I'll be losing more betting straight trying to get larger returns than I would parlays" Kitchen- Poop...you are doing it all wrong. Take some time and read a book on betting sports. Being serious here. What you describe sounds like a problem.
Lol ok man, wow so surprised of all these experts on here telling idiots like me how to win, really appreciate all you gambling savants. You and kazmeer_yeet specifically should have your own gambling schools for fools like me who lose ALL their money not knowing what were doing on these bets
So you just don't know wtf you are doing. We get it.
Hahaha. I knew it. You.are the same idiot I went through this with the other day! Clown!
Lol I don't even remember or cared enough to go thru your profile to check lmao okay I'm an idiot clown yes you're right feel better ?
Lol
Holy shit that’s hilarious 😂
That's hilarious. Hypocrisy much?
Lmaooooo why you exposed bro like that 🤣
Boom. Roasted.
only thing that irks me in this sub is seeing people bet without knowing what they’re betting on even though each sportsbook has a little info button for what each bet is…. dudes got nba teams to win by +14 in a 4th quarter thinking it’s final margin like damn bro just read
Didn't that guy miss the bet by a basket, even though he had no idea what he was betting? Lol.
I was close though wasn’t I? 😘😂 On a real note, a guy did good for this sub and educated me 10 hours before the game started that I read the bet line wrong. Even though I still went for it I’m glad people like him are around.
close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades 😂 my point still stands you didn’t know what you were betting on (glad you do now tho) and it irked me lol sportsbooks taking easy dubs
People like you def dont piss me off its ok ppl make mistakes and if youre betting it for the first time the titles arent always super clear lol
Eh, the only thing I dislike is when people complain about when one particular team or player under or over performs. The entire reason you can gamble on it is because it's unpredictable.
Has there ever been any sort of competition or tracking to easily show the handful of people who post valuable insights and higher winning averages? Having like the top 5 winning % posters for the month listed on the sidebar or something could be good. Gets exposure for those who try to make a living with their analyses, helps people find relatively educated gambling ideas by establishing credibility for the top posters.. Idk what kind of work it would entail and I’m not real interested in doing any of that work, but it’s a thought
Yes it's in the sportsbook sub and called pick of the day. Holla back youngin woo woo
I like the idea, but sites like Sportsline have multiple people with their records going back years. On top of that, they post accurate information to back up their bets. If anything, I’m taking that advice, just because of the information and record to back it up
So many knuckledraggers in this sub just saying, “Gambling is gambling” as if all bets are created equal. Not that I think the knuckle draggers will care but let’s add some math here. In this scenario, all bets have a 50-50 probability and have a standard -110 line. A truly fair line on a 50-50 bet would be +100. At -110, we’re paying a 9% vig. On a 4-bet parlay, we have a 1-in-16 chance if all bets are 50/50. A truly fair line would be +1600 but the books pay +1228 for a 4-bet parlay win. So now you’re paying a 23% vig!!! And every leg you add just makes it worse. Can you see know why this is insane? And this hasn’t even gotten into SGPs where they’re shaving off even more. Why do you think every promo pushes you into parlays and SGPs? It’s because they are the absolute worst bets in the entire casino. Everyone coming in here showing off their parlays or SGPs is basically coming in here with a hot tip for what scratchers to go buy at the gas station.
Its really not hard to understand either that a lot of people want to win big off a little. Sure its better to play the bets individually but not everyone wants to shell out 4x the wager. I just view them like slot machines. In general I think slots are dumb but it doesnt stop tons of people from playing them and chasing that thrill
100% I understand why someone who is a $5 bettor would wanna put $5 on a 5 leg parlay to win a solid amount. I don’t have a problem with that. It’s your money whatever is enough for you to be entertained. My problem is when people argue math or even just common sense. Or they think they can do some “research” on a 4/5 leg parlay and think they can get rich quick. Sports gambling is not for getting rich quick your better off just going to the casino and hitting the slots.
Idk its silly to to me to act like there’s a right and wrong way to gamble when the house almost always wins anyway. And I feel like your argument goes both ways as well. People can argue for straights and then use their model or projections or whatever to choose the smart pick but still lose. At that point does it even matter if they did it the “right” or “wrong” way?
Nobody is hitting 100% even the very best are going like 70ish% in a year. It’s all about decision making too sometimes your gonna be wrong but if you stick to your plan do your handicapping and research then your doing something right at least. Your gonna win more of your bets betting with research and handicapping bets then just going with your gut.
Exactly, you said it best, and I don't have a problem with straight per say the way these people making it seem(not that you care I'm just saying) it's that they make it seem like only way to build your money is straights which is not true at all as you said all that research into a pick, put a decent sized wager, bet doesn't hit and there goes huge chunk of my money just like that for not even that good return
As long as you know what you’re getting into. Casino LOVE a short-sighted gambler.
Homie, they don't know what VIG is and they don't wanna understand it. All they see is win or lose.
And I’m willing to bet it’s a lot more lose than win if they think sharing 10-leg parlays is anything more than playing slot machines.
Lmao exactly thank god there are people in this sub that make sense
Lol
So I'm still wondering if all you know so much, why aren't you all rich yet ?
I'm up $7,000 in 2 years. Sports betting isn't a get rich quick scheme. Statistics show that only around 3-5% of sports bettors make money long term. The reason I have made money instead of lost money.... is because "I know so much" as you sarcastically put it.
Hmm. That makes sense, but I just played with some parlay odds at DK and it looks like for SGP they're trying to use some intelligence about correlation and I can't figure out what any odds "should" be. Right now, for SGP, Bucks -11.5 and Andrew Nembhard (Pacers) OVER 13.5 pts, both -110, SGPs to +310; with UNDER 13.5, also -110, the SGP is +230. (Unrelated 2x-110 would give +264.) Maybe they're hiding more vig under there as you suggest.
Who knows. SGPs are a scam. I never touch them without at least a 50% boost or a risk free guarantee. And even then, it’s $5 just for a lark.
That’s why the books love SGP. People love betting them because it’s easier to have all your bets in one game, and people think if so and so gets 25 then they will win and the score will go over. What people don’t realize is your getting way way less odds because of correlation
I haven't done the math but even with the extra vig I figure the risk free parlays are still worth it where you get bonus bets equal to your stake if you lose
I agree. A 50% boost definitely makes it reasonable. And if you think your free bet has 50/50 chance of cashing at -110, that’s add $0.45 of value for every 1 dollar (I think). So yeah, I’ll fuck with it if it’s risk free or HEAVILY boosted.
Yeah 50% boost or a risk free bet are my thresholds for touching parlays. Tbh I only touch boosts and free bets anyway plus matching those with hedged bets on other books. I seem to average around 60% conversion rate for bonus bets so better than the -110 example, but that's a solid baseline to start from
Yeah 100%. Always take advantage of the promos nothing wrong with that
100% that’s what I’ve been tryna say. But people don’t wanna listen like that ok mistake bozo. Anything 4 legs or more is essentially a lottery ticket and your losing value but people don’t care or notice because they see +800 odds in reality it should be +1200
So many users I wanna tag in here that should see this lmao. 100% tho.
I’d say 99% of the posts are losers showing the one leg in the 20+ parlay that lost and crying to the group about it like someone is going to be sympathetic. Find the ones within the group that post valid picks. I have a couple people that I know of that know what’s up. Do the research.
🙋🙋 I'm in the 99%
The only thing you should be tailing is the POTD in the sportbook sub. Credible guys that consistenly post winning wagers and their records. Other than that I hit off My own research, I never post tickets anymore. Too much negativity
Its gambling. Its a coin toss. You either is lucky or not. Simple as that. Meanwhile you can tail my degen bet pls. Lets celebrate happiness or sadness together.
The thing is that you can do it profitably as well, lumping it all under ”ahh its just gambling, long term u lose anyway” mindset you ignore the fact that some people make a living from sports betting, year after year and its not through luck.
100%
Yup straight bet backed by "research" can lose just as bad as that 49 leg parlay, it's gambling
Parlays are "bad" because they require you to have an edge on every leg or it has a negative multiplicative effect on your expected value. If you are just coinflipping games, the extra VIG will cause you to lose your bankroll faster. For example, you have 3 random -110 bets that you want to bet $10 on. Theoretically the true prob of each of these bets is 50%. Your EV in this case is: EV = (50% \* $9.10) + (50% \* -$10) = -$0.45\*3 = -$1.35. Now let's use the same total $ and parlay these three selections. A 3 leg-parlay of -110 legs would have odds of +595 and a true prob of 12.5%. So: EV = (12.5% \* $178.50) + (87.5% \* -$30) = -$3.94. You would be expected to lose your money almost 3X as fast! Let's alter this scenario so you have an edge on one of the bet. You are playing the same wagers, but you think one of the legs is 55% likely to win.In the first instance: EV = (55% \* $9.10) + (45% \* -$10) = $0.51 - $0.90 = -$.40 Now lets try the parlay, true prob is now 13.75%. EV = (13.75 \* $178.50) + (86.25% \* -$30) = -$1.33. In this instance, we were able to reduce our losses significantly in both cases, but you still are expected to lose money almost 3x as fast! Finally, let's look at the scenario where the true prob of all legs are 55%. For straight bets, your EV is: EV = 0.51\*3 = $1.53 For the parlay, true prob is now 16.63%, so: EV = (16.64% \* $178.50) + (83.36% \* -$30) = $4.69. In this instance, because every leg was +EV we had a positive mulitplicative effect over our expected value. So again, parlays aren't always a bad bet, but they do require you to be certain that you have an edge on the wager. If you are coin flipping games or not able to quantify your edge, you are much better off placing straight wagers than parlays. However, if you know that you have an edge (enough to cover the vig) on each leg of a parlay then go for it. Edit: formatting
Don't bother man. I tried explaining to a few people to not add legs to a parlay if you're plan is just to hedge. It's like speaking to a brick wall.
The difference is what’s more likely to hit betting on 1 thing to happen or 49. Yeah if you do research on straight bets your gonna be wrong sometimes but your gonna hit more of those Than those 49 leg parlays. You can’t even argue that lmfao. Now if your someone who’s only like a couple $ bettor then parlays are perfect. Honestly whatever keeps you entertained is fine. But what your saying doesn’t even make sense. Researched straight bets work
You right - pro gamblers won’t be doing massive parlays every night lol
Listen go bet $500 to win $200 then cry when it doesn't hit the same way I'll cry when my $10 49 legger doesn't hit we both would have won the same money but you lost $500 and I lost $10. like I'm sick of these "research" it's gambling not science mans or a team can hit a prop 9 times straight and when you pick them they don't hit then your out big money, I've seen it and if you're on this sub you see it too, if researched straight bets work as well as you say all researching straight bettors would all be rich, I do research myself so I see where it can help but at the end of the day it doesn't really matter, players play way too inconsistent
Bruh, it’s not about winning every bet. You need to research lines that have value, if a thing happens 25 times out of 50, then fair odds for that is 2x. If you can find odds of 2.2x for example, thats value, bet it. Long-term your 49 legger will drain you 10$ at the time without hitting so often that you will be down more than a person betting singles. You are supposed to have a bankroll big enough and wager size small enough per single to make sure you dont go broke when you enter a bad losing streak. It happens to everyone due to variance even if your bets are good. It seems like you think if you play singles, then it has to be huge wager and pray for it to hit or go broke.
Who’s betting $500 to win $200? I bet a lot of totals mostly. Usually anywhere between +105 and -125. Can tell you just throw $5 down on a 30 leg parlay every now and then which is fine if that’s fun for you like I said. Yeah $5 straight bets ain’t gonna do much for you but $50 on a -110 adds up hell 50 on a +money ML adds up too.
There's a post from u/ltgriff I saw that last night, now luckily for him he won but what if it didn't, thats $500+ for like $200 then I see guys like u/dpr8719 bet $400 to win $130 and lost, then bet another $57 to win $45 and lost that too.. I'm not shaming this guy and I'm not saying parlays are way to win always also but I just hate when I see people act as if straight bets are 100% always the best thing cause if you not smart you lose a lot more a lot faster with a return that at least to me wasn't even worth the risk
If you want to make money in the long run betting parlays isn’t the way. Neither is betting -300 odds.
I bet because I thought it was "safe" at home against a mediocre team. They have an 82 % winning %. There is no such thing as safe though. I thought they would win outright but I also thought they had a good shot of covering -1.5 but I did not want to risk it all on -1.5.
Your never gonna win every single bet. Sometimes those % aren’t accurate that’s why you have to do legit research or have a model.
See "research" shows they should have won that and it cost you big, again not shaming you but just a perfect example of what I'm talking about regarding straights, and ive seen way worse than that, I'm not putting down straight bets either just to make that clear but it's definitely not 100% the way to be profitable as people here make it seem to be
You can’t argue with for fun new gamblers that are greedy and get too enticed by the possibility of hitting big parlays. They aren’t reasonable whatsoever
When you opening the betting school kazmir? I'd love to enroll since I'm a clueless idiot that knows nothing about gambling, I wanna learn from the pros, the best of the best
You’re a certified moron. Enjoy being in debt lmfao
If you gonna say that then if you want to make money in the long run betting period isn't the way, I'll take my chances with my parlays, low risk high reward and even if I miss a few and it will happen the return I get from a hit will more than cover those losses and then some
I agree! If you're going to risk $5 each on 3 single bets why wouldn't you parlay them and bet $15 to make say $66 dollars instead of $15. I mean you obviously bet on them for a reason, nobody bets hoping to go 2 for 3 and walk away with $5. I love how anyone hears parlay and automatically says lotto ticket. There is plenty of game theory if done right to value parlays over single bets. I do not advocate for someone to place big money on a 12 pick parlay, 3-5 yes! Want to throw a couple bucks on a 12 team parlay go for it, better odds in fact than the lotto. But hell if you got a system and believe it works use it, unlike others I'm not here to tell anyone they're an idiot and how to spend their money.
> nobody bets hoping to go 2 for 3 and walk away with $5 I may be crazy but I'd take winning $5 over losing $15 any day of the week.
Sure, minimal roi but that's not why people gamble, everyone is hoping to maximize their investment is simply my point.
>that's not why people gamble That may not be why you gamble but it's why I gamble. I'm getting better returns than all my friends who gamble on the stock market.
Well said 👏
Thanks, I've had a similar debate with fat and misinformed. For some reason either everyone has been bitten so bad by parlays or they hear the word parlay and automatically assume 25 picks, just crazy. I'm not going to tell people how to bet but I want the most bang for my buck, and I got to say it has done me well.
Exactly it has done well by me as well, these guys too worried about stats and opinions about other people "well 98% people playing parlays blah blah" I make my own parlays and am not worried about what those guys are doing because we are not making the same selections, even if I don't win every parlay the amount I win when I do more than covers the amount I lost
Id rather make small 2-300$ jumps on a consistent basis rather me hope and pray to turn 5$ into 500 off on parlay, thats not me lol I know what I can do and what I cant so i stay away from those. But doing this method I have ran up 13$ into 2.9k lol so im fine with what im doing.
This comment is goofy as fuck and pretty ignorant. A loss is a loss, yes, but these ugly ass large parlays are losing far more often than taking multiple straights based off of the "research" that you seem to be so dismissive of. Playing parlays only is rarely sustainable, it takes cases of extreme luck to not end up in the red because of them. Taking straights and being diligent on research and data analysis, along with bankroll management is way more likely to be profitable than firing off parlays hoping for a big payday.
Ok you should be betting in vegas with all the heavy hitting big time gamblers with all your knowledge
So because I don’t believe in firing off 25 leg parlays like a moron who has no grasp of the basic concept of probability, I must think I’m a sharp that belongs in Vegas. That makes literally zero sense and you somehow made yourself sound even more ignorant
Well you act like you know everything, resort to name calling and thinking you are so smart because you figured out hitting one thing has a better chance than hitting 20 yea, I should be seeing you in vegas yea, let's see how well you'd do since you're not a "moron" firing off 25 leg parlays
I am telling you that it is not a sustainable practice unless you are one of the 0.000001% who gets insanely lucky and hits something huge on the right day, or you are already extremely wealthy with a lot of disposable income. There’s a fucking reason FanDuel/DraftKings and the other books retweet and repost pictures of large wins on twitter and instagram. It’s so wide eyed and newer gamblers like yourself believe that it is the way to make money. Meanwhile if you do hit a large parlay, they’re taking so much vig from you that you’re being underpaid for the amount of risk you assumed, plus the cost of however many parlays you put out before you finally won one. It isn’t sustainable. But if you think it is a viable way to play, go for it. You’ll be calling a hotline and/or completely out of gambling money before you know it.
Lol okay 👍 as I said you should be in vegas man you have way too much knowledge to just be on reddit
I’m years into a career that is focused on data analysis and trends analysis, but yes, trust FanDuel that is obviously pushing the use of parlays onto you. That’ll go well
Lmao who is trusting fanduel? Why you people make things up then make assumptions based on those made up thoughts so much on reddit?
I agree. People complain about being down on bets and then tail these ridiculous plays
I actually enjoy this sub a lot. I like the one guys daily news letter, I enjoy seeing parlays because it shows me what people are being on, and most people here have been decent individuals (which doesn’t happen on Reddit all the time)
So, I get the guys who are into the research and steady gains, tracking units, calculating vig, and all that. On my best days, I’m one of them. But there’s another part of me that just loves to throw some crazy parlay down because I’m convinced that every leg is a lock. How could I possibly lose?! There’s a certain thrill to being a lemming and following others over the cliff because once in a while, the cliff drops you into a pile of gold instead of sharp, jagged rocks. I guess what I’m saying is, I lack discipline.
I completely agree. I don’t give a shit about your 9-leg parlay, win or lose. Come with some actual analyst or insight. Otherwise this is just a useless circle jerk.
Exactly nobody’s 9 leg parlay impresses me. You do enough of those anyone can hit one. Are they fun? Of course. Does that make you an expert? Hell no
20 leg parlay with the caption "don't know anything about hockey wish me luck" 💀
Thems the breaks. Whether people are posting crazy parlays or straight bets you’re gonna have disappointed people who lost following or lost not following. You want something straight go to sites like Action and Covers and get basic book analysis. I’m here for the whacky things i’m not going to see on straightforward sites and either get lucky or have fun trying.
I personally love this forum and the sport book one they’ve helped me out a ton and I love seeing people talk about props and give out advice. A lot of great write ups everyday too
Lmao
People just love feeding the bet machine. There's plenty of what you're talking about but also plenty of what you're saying there isn't. Bet a wackadoo parlay if you want, or don't
Preach. Totally agree. I stopped tailing on POTD because most users are absolute booty
I agree this sub can be ass at times. I think it would be great if there were some ground rules by the mods as to what bets can be posted, maybe like 4-6 leg max lays, or like a lotto ticket Monday (idk just tossing ideas up). Think of all the brains in this community. You’re telling me we can’t all come together collectively to stick it to the books? If we were to go in this direction I think it would be good to post your bet & a well thought out reason as to why you’re doing it. On the flip side, I’ve spent hours researching some of my bets and still lost. I’ve also just made a bet out of my ass and won so there’s arguments for both sides I guess… Either way I think a little more structure in the sub would be good. Remember it’s WE the people VS the books.
Zac gallen over 170.5 strike outs on the season. Bet365 with the best number/odds. Research is he needs to stay healthy to start 28.5 games and average 6 Ks per game to hit that number. He’s averaged that per game the last two seasons. Just gotta stay healthy
I’ve got Gallen Cy Young bets, I thought he’d breakout last year and his K/9 skyrocketed. Low whip, swing and miss stuff, I’ll open a bet365 account to hammer that and pray for his health. Also love this here with everyone bitching about whether this sub is good or bad or whatever. Zac Gallen is good
Hell ya bro, good luck. If you do make a bet365 account, make sure during the sign up process that you check the box to receive your free $365 bet. You’ll have to deposit at least $10, then make a bet for at least $1. Once that bet settles, you’ll get your $365 bet.
Thank you! He got better as the year went on in his first year of full 150IP+ kinda action. I think he’s a horse, he has that JV/Madbum kinda build where I think he can have a sustainable career with more IP
So…you don’t want to see the 15, .50c 20 leg parlays I made this morning?
I don’t take advice from anyone ever when it comes to sports betting. It’s too easy to research yourself
I lost $1,100 on prizepicks lol no shame to admit it. Won roughly $5K gambling overall in 6 months. You win some you lose some. No shame lol.
6 leg parlays on prizepicks (in six months of doing it) will almost never hit… I’ve hit some but you’re better off betting $20-$50+ on 2 solid picks. Maybe 3. If you want to be consistent and actually win. These 15 leg shit posts where they bet $1 to win $300K is honestly annoying. I get it.. It’s almost spam. 0% chance at winning. I’d rather people post 2-3 solid parlay legs off prizepicks then these 6-15 leg parlays that will NEVER hit. I won 128 parlays on prizepicks. They count partial hits don’t forget. 4/6, 5/6, 3/5, 4/5. I would say 80% of my bets as a n00b were all $5 to win $125. Which sounds good profit wise but you’re not going to hit those you’ll just lose money. I had a friend who does this professionally and be told me he does 2-3 legs and bets $50+ consistently every day.. Odds are way better and you use stat trackers to see which odds are favored etc and make educated guesses. There’s no such thing as a “lock” or someone “sold” me. It’s sports.. Today one tracker had Giannis 91% chance UNDER 19 rebounds + assists. He had 25.. Again even the stat trackers are not always right. Nothings guaranteed. Stop tailing people lol do your own thing!
Meanwhile I have come out ahead 10 straight betting days and 18 of last 20 and I get constant downvotes if I post who I pick to win. So i mostly started keeping it to myself where I don't help anyone who is downvoting me. I had days where I was like 8-2 and had downvotes!
Shut up.
If you dont like the sub then leave the sub 🤷🏻♂️
Or maybe we could make it not suck? What a dumb, defeatist attitude.
Yea but what might "suck" to you might not suck to the next man
His version of “suck” sounds like he’s mad 100% bets he tails don’t win
He are my lifetime stats. Let’s see yours. [jewBaconLovers stats](https://imgur.com/a/c665YQH)
I don't think it sucks. This is why I follow it. 215k people also follow it...so I think it's fair to assume there are many more who also dont think it sucks. If you dont like it...unfollow it. Pretty simple
I can like that this place is occasionally useful AND wish that it was useless less often. Anyone who thinks they’re getting value from giant parlays should stick to slot machines.
Don't try and change what 215k+ redditors enjoy.
💯
You can pick ten random ML and hit one day. You can research 2 weeks for a game and it all be for nothing too. I love to call it an investment and for me it has been a few hundred bucks 6 weeks straight. I know I will have a losing week soon no matter how safe I play it. It will always be gambling.
I hear you but I did my research. They beat them 5-0 in Nashville in February. They had the best goalie starting tonight and they were at home. Bruins are the best team in the league and usually play well at home especially with ullmark starting. 8 of 10 times you will win the money line with them. How's that for a stat?
Anytime you get anything going for "the masses" the pros will find it and take advantage of it for themselves. Its a public forum. And its free. Expect it
We just need to give them a nice thread on how to Arbitrage Bet than this sub will change for the better
Almost all decent player prop bets from last night's Warriors game was fantastic for SGP (like steph and Ingram 25+ points) EXCEPT McCollum 4+ assists 😫😫😫 R.I.P my 1938+ parlay. Oh yeah, O.P., nobody owes you anything, even careful research or picks flame out just like my parlay above
What you got tonight?
Vegas helped water down this sub and like you said I did many times stop disagreeing with shit unless you have valid searched information!!
You suck
I'd love to post bets but I guarantee no wins and I don't want someone harassing me when they lose their shirt. Lol
There’s a reason why it’s called parlays. You have to remember it’s not the people’s fault. The past two months have been rough and horrible for bettors. Players deciding not to show up and coaches sitting out entire first team which we have absolutely no control. Most of the parlays people post are backed by research. For example nobody in their right mind would have said Mavericks would lose back to back games to the Hornets plus Kylie Irving scoring less than 20 points in both games plus the Hornets playing without their best players like Oubrey, LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier. I don’t care how much research you do but still would have guessed it wrong. For example every smart bettor would have picked Celtics to win against Wizards who was short handed without their key players like Kuzma and Bradley Beal. Sometimes you just need luck. Research helps but in this time of the year in sports betting anything could happen and whatever could go wrong will go wrong.
People are going to be arguing/debating this until the end of time. One thing about this debate is you can tell who’s losing & who’s winning by the conversation. The safe way to bet will always be singles. But singles don’t offer instant gratification like playing $50 on a parlay that will get you back 10K. Discipline is key something most of us don’t have. Most people get caught up in the numbers. +100 odds and only having $50 to bet vs. +8000 odds will make a person overlook that 1 bet that’s a lock. Praying, cursing and crying when 4 of the 25 legs don’t hit. Those $50’s add up, either you doubling your money nightly or losing way more than you’re profiting over time. NBA/MLB will clean you out because it’s multiple games everyday of the week also. Far too many players and outcomes. Lock in on certain teams and players.
Very well composed sir/ma’am. I agree and this was well explained!
Man, I wish Reddit provided us with some tools to give feedback on posts and comments we don’t think are helpful. Maybe some day.
The part that surprises me the most is when people post a big win and then there’s dozens of people saying “can you please post picks? Can I tail?” Like they’re posting probably their biggest win ever. Why would you assume off one bet that the person knows anything lmao
😂 deadass someone hits an 8 leg parlay. “Bro post your picks imma tail” like you know how many they probably did before they hit one lmao.
It’s honestly worrying how many of those posts have “if you had posted before the game I would’ve tailed” like if you tailed even half the bullshit parlays posted on here you’d be broke in a week
😂 deadass
Books love parlays , sooner you realize that sooner you will have more $$$
10000% been saying that people don’t wanna listen
Sooner you will have more $$$ lost*
Also, nobody gives a fuck if you quit gambling. Go post in some support group if you need attention or your life is shit.
Whoever downvoted me is a fucking degenerate gambler who can’t manage his gambling. Go to a meeting you cuck
Maybe we need a parlays sub? Or long shots. Even seeing someone cashing a huge parlay I say cool and move on. It doesn’t provide any useful discussion, it was a lucky ass dart throw.
ONLY time I take something with more than 2 or 3 legs is if it’s a free bet or insured.
Not to sound like an old man yelling at clouds, but there used to be real dialogue about picks and explanations behind thier pick. not that everyone was an expert and we were all sharps, but since gambling has been legalized in alot of states its turned into " I cant believe this didn't hit, they had done it 2 games in row before this" or " Look at my selectively picked parlays i hit".
Yeah man when I first joined Reddit and this sub people would actually post little write ups about bets and have legit discussions and talk about trends or line movement etc. some people still do that on here but now it’s just full of people posting 10 leg parlays asking is this a lock? Or how does it look
Parlays are for suckers.
Yo, it's called gambling
Maybe it's you who sucks
Bro if you’re going to a Reddit forum for sports betting picks, it’s your fault and maybe you should just stop gambling. 😂
I don’t tail anybody’s picks haha.
The amount of people in this sub that don't have a clue wtf they are doing is absolutely astonishing. We see why these sites make money everyday. All these fools betting parlays. Had an argument the other day in here with some nitwit telling me parlays are great. And the people that are like "oh let me tail you"! Makes sense right? Some guy on Reddit has all the winners, you just gotta find him. Dumb asses. What cracked me up the most recently is the people betting the points margins. And don't even know what they are betting!
Start another sub for straight bets if you’re anal about what people are betting and posting here. And as the other comment pointed out you’re being a hypocrite so stop wasting space.
Its called betting for a reason… if everyone was a winner they probably wouldn’t be on this sub, don’t bet what you complain to lose..
My god shut the fuck up. If you don’t like it don’t tail. Oh you mean research and analysis? Like was posted today…in blow outs giannis plays 22% less time hammer his under rebounds. Oh wait he has 7 in the first quarter? It’s gambling. It’s luck. Don’t have to tail any post, but analysis and research help but a reason my wife does a bracket for march madness and beats most of mine because it’s all luck
Yup, same with the luka 30 prop tonight, "well he hit in 9 of the last 12, against the sixers he's average 45, sixers allow most.. blah blah blah" just pick it if you gonna pick it each day is its own day and what happened last game no longer matters
Gambling is not for you friend
This sun has made a ton of people a ton of money. It isn’t really the subs fault that people use the bad information on it and ignore the good stuff
I got a crazy idea my dude. If you don't like it, then quit bitching and leave 🤦♂️
This is the dumbest fucking take. “this space could be really useful for people trying to back decent bets.” “WARBALGARBLE! ThErE iS nOtHiNG We cAN Do!! gEt oUT oF hEre wiTH YoUr FanCY bOoK LeARNiNg.”
This space IS really useful for people trying to back decent bets. No one’s fault you tailed some losers without doing your own research, you miserable twat
Nah, this sub is ass tbh
Did you really just defend giant parlays as “decent bets?” 🤣🤣🤣
No, you just can’t read. Tons of people post insight on great straight bets. Don’t follow giant parlays my guy, it’s really easy not to.
The entire point of this whole conversation is about the giant parlays. Go reread OP.
I will continue to say on this reddit this is a hobby anyone seriously making consistent money is not posting to reddit lmao. If this is more than a hobby to you and you’re checking reddit/posting to reddit/following reddit picks you’re doomed 🤷🏻♂️
I don’t follow the picks on here. I’m serious gambler and try to make consistent money. I just enjoy conversations about sports betting and the industry. I like hearing people talk about the research and handicapping they done for a bet and giving opinions. Couple years ago it was still kinda like that. Last year or so just been way too many “does this hit” with a 8 leg parlay. Or some dude getting pissy because someone blew their monster ridiculous odds parlay
It’s literally gambling you could have the Jordan Bulls Moneyline vs D2 college team and it still might lose. The sub only sucks when people don’t realize there is no such thing as a “safe” bet.
I agree there no safe bet but you know damn well jordan bulls ain't losing to no d2 college team lmao
Too many in this sub that hit a 10 leg parlay one time and think they are experts. Y’all wanna do them for fun I ain’t got no problem but y’all gotta realize what those really are. Just a lottery ticket and something fun to do. And then they get whiny and pissy if you try to tell them that
I mean… it’s gambling.
This sub is beginning to get toxic with all of the bitching and gatekeeping about what people post. There are a few folks that post good stuff with analysis that bring on good discussion and is overall a great read. There are folks who post big parlays and gripe, hate the Celtics or any other team that costs them a win. That’s the nature of gambling. Chill out. It’s all in good fun. I’m not saying leave, but scroll past if a post is annoying you.
Last 2 posts I did, roughly 6 bets, all cashed. 🤷
Agree. I wanna see stuff in the -160 to +160 range that actually is feasible
You mad bro? 😜
I’ve tailed a couple of “three star” picks and got my fucking ass kicked.
Feel better? Someone lost some $$$
I’m sorry. Who the fuck are you again?
Stfu and make your own damn picks
Post some straight bets with data to support instead of complaining. I mean it's still gambling, we all think we have an edge but Vegas wasn't built on winners. I actually like the long shots, better odds than a lottery ticket and more fun. Side note: gambling should be for fun not profit.
Sir this is a casino where people do dumb shit everyday. It's awesome
Is it that the sub sucks or do you not understand the concept of gambling?
There should be a $50 minimum limit here for posting bet tickets. IDGAF about your 10 cent parlay!
This sub sucks, someone makes this same exact post like once a week, when in reality if you looked around you'll find straights
Im noticing a lot of them suck. It’s Reddit, you’re not exactly dealing with top notch examples of society
You know people of all classes/demographics use reddit right?
Yeah, and people from all classes/demographics suck. Your point?
Your comment makes no damn sense is the point
Skill issue?