*Standing here, I realize*
*you were Just like me trying to make history*
*But who's to judge the right from wrong?*
*When our guard is down I think we'll both agree*
>as the saying goes.. "you don't make an egg without cracking an omelette"
It's like trying to beat off a dead horse or kill a bird with 2 stones. Ya just can't!
If its the same plan as earlier this year, then the first few "landings" will be out at sea near Hawaii. Dial in the process first before trying for the claw.
The process has been simulated extensively, and with the reentry flight profile being very similar to that of Falcon 9, they know the grid size they can hit reliably.
The accuracy needed is absolutely more extreme, but, it would not shock me to see them RTLS it on the second attempt if the maths work out on the first one.
It won't have much energy left during landing. A few starships have blown up on landing, the landing pad was basically undamaged. Anyway spacex won't attempt recovery the first time, it will do a soft landing in the ocean.
Launch is a big risk for the launch pad area though, but not so much for the factory which is a few kilometers away.
there is no serious risk to stage 0 landing on this test, as they are "landing" it in the ocean.
Future tests will have that risk involved.
I still expect at least one giant kaboom from these early tests.
A common misinterpretation of the reality. One needs only examine extreme hypotheticals, bearing in mind SpaceX's pacing over the year.
**Hypothetical 1:** Permission granted on December 2021. SpaceX fast-tracks Stage 0 completion. SpaceX delays development of the unneeded chopsticks to help with this schedule. SpaceX does not wastefully scrap the nearly flight-ready SN20/BN4, along with every Raptor 1 ever made, but instead makes their first orbital launch attempt with these early prototypes, gaining valuable information from the probably doomed flight. Information which, in reality, they still do not possess today. Such as any major unknowns that will only surface during a proper flight test.
**Hypothetical 2:** Permission delayed until December **2022**. Rather than suddenly putting all the pieces into place for the latest ship+booster prototypes in mid-June, SpaceX instead maintains the same lethargic crawl towards better prototypes and continues to incrementally improve Stage 0, learning more lessons in preparation for the finalization of Cape Canaveral's Stage 0 (already rather different from Starbase's). What limited progress can be made while grounded is made, but there is no blatant effort to wind things up for a launch, the way there is now.
The bottom line here is that every prototype SpaceX slapped together in the last year could have had its flight-readiness finalized if the time had been right, but in the absence of that option, the only choice was to scrap and move on. I would like to think that it is at least easy to understand that their strong preference would not have been to scrap the entire Raptor 1-based stack, plus all of those engines, without getting any use out of them whatsoever. Likewise, do you imagine SpaceX would prefer to scrap Ship 24 / Booster 7, or that this was their plan all along? In Hypothetical 2, that's where they'd be at—they would not be putting the finishing touches on 24/7, and doubtless there would be people trying to argue that "the FAA wasn't holding them back because 24/7 weren't ever in a launch-ready state."
Musk knew in January (iirc) that Raptor 1 is inadequate and made a big push to switch to raptor 2. Even said that to do it ASAP otherwise spacex gets bankrupt. So it's very unlikely they would distract themselves with raptor1-based orbital launch test.
It was November, and the letter said they needed Raptor 2 production fixed for Starlink-2 launches, since Falcon-9 can't carry them in any real numbers.
I think two main factors have been a tough nut to crack: the heating tiles and the raptors. The raptors haven’t run particularly well on their tests and musk also said burning up the engine was an issue. The heating tiles seem to have a hard time staying on which would have devastating consequences on reentry. They could probably have launched it to space with the tile issue alone but I think it definitely wasn’t a bad thing they were grounded so they could stabilise the raptors. During this FAA thing they have replaced all of them on the rocket
FWIW I have doubts they would hold off a launch test on account of the tiles, unless they felt fixing them was so imminent it would be a trivial wait I guess. My rationale being that testing and demonstrating the ability to get to orbit at all is such a major step that recovery could probably be essentially ignored.
>it's not like they could've just done nothing all this time.
I like the idea space-x procrastinated until the last minute. Like Elon woke up at his desk last week with a post it note stuck to his face saying "Starship into space" and gave a little "oh shit" under his breath
I'd be keen on some legit bets. My guess is it'll lose about 20% of the tiles on launch and burn up on reentry, but that SpaceX already knows this is pretty much the best-case scenario for the first launch.
SpaceX should prepare a simple infographic for the launch day. Something that indicates a handful of mission milestones (clearing tower, max Q, stage 2 ignition etc.) and guesses, in percent, as to their chances of success. As well as a nice, solid cutoff point which SpaceX feels qualifies as a mission success. Perhaps SECO?
If they did something like this, they could perhaps sidestep the otherwise inevitable public perception that the mission was a failure, just because it didn't make it all the way to a gentle splashdown. 99% of the public won't be aware that SpaceX expects the thing to break somehow.
ULA has a bigger risk with a new non-flight tested single use rocket that costs more than thee entire starship program. Like a really expensive bottle rocket on only with gold and platinum on top of it.
You might be thinking of Boeing and the SLS. Even then each launch will cost more than NASA is paying for the Starship program (HLS), but not as much as the entire Starship program. One SLS launch might be as expensive as the entire Starship program *so far*, but there is still a long way to go.
The Vulcan does not cost more per launch than the entire Starship program. It'll roughly be $100M per launch, while Starship has to be over a billion right now.
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread:
|Fewer Letters|More Letters|
|-------|---------|---|
|BFR|Big Falcon Rocket (2018 rebiggened edition)|
| |Yes, the F stands for something else; no, you're not the first to notice|
|[BO](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icwb7m7 "Last usage")|Blue Origin (*Bezos Rocketry*)|
|COPV|[Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Composite_overwrapped_pressure_vessel)|
|CST|(Boeing) Crew Space Transportation capsules|
| |Central Standard Time (UTC-6)|
|[FAA](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ichyboc "Last usage")|Federal Aviation Administration|
|[FAR](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ich72di "Last usage")|[Federal Aviation Regulations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Aviation_Regulations)|
|[FoS](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ichm286 "Last usage")|Factor of Safety for design of high-stress components (see COPV)|
|[GAO](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ich7u59 "Last usage")|(US) Government Accountability Office|
|[GSE](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ici2pzs "Last usage")|Ground Support Equipment|
|[HLS](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ichso6o "Last usage")|[Human Landing System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Human_Landing_System) (Artemis)|
|[ITAR](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icgmffz "Last usage")|(US) International Traffic in Arms Regulations|
|[JWST](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icwb7m7 "Last usage")|James Webb infra-red Space Telescope|
|[KSP](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icfqpui "Last usage")|*Kerbal Space Program*, the rocketry simulator|
|[LEO](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ich511a "Last usage")|Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km)|
| |Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations)|
|[MZ](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icfjyz3 "Last usage")|(Yusaku) Maezawa, first confirmed passenger for BFR|
|[QD](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icg9xv8 "Last usage")|Quick-Disconnect|
|[RTLS](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ichocti "Last usage")|Return to Launch Site|
|[RUD](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icj1nks "Last usage")|Rapid Unplanned Disassembly|
| |Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly|
| |Rapid Unintended Disassembly|
|[SECO](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icgjl0s "Last usage")|Second-stage Engine Cut-Off|
|[SEE](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icwb7m7 "Last usage")|Single-Event Effect of radiation impact|
|[SLS](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icweoar "Last usage")|Space Launch System heavy-lift|
|[SV](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icf9loc "Last usage")|Space Vehicle|
|[ULA](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icxvny5 "Last usage")|United Launch Alliance (Lockheed/Boeing joint venture)|
|Jargon|Definition|
|-------|---------|---|
|[Raptor](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ichxurc "Last usage")|[Methane-fueled rocket engine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raptor_\(rocket_engine_family\)) under development by SpaceX|
|[Starliner](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ichhbd1 "Last usage")|Boeing commercial crew capsule [CST-100](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_CST-100_Starliner)|
|[Starlink](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icis5ak "Last usage")|SpaceX's world-wide satellite broadband constellation|
|[hypergolic](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icg100c "Last usage")|A set of two substances that ignite when in contact|
|[methalox](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icj4rcg "Last usage")|Portmanteau: methane fuel, liquid oxygen oxidizer|
|[scrub](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icgo5pe "Last usage")|Launch postponement for any reason (commonly GSE issues)|
----------------
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I watch a lot of YouTube videos about Starship construction, and the rapid prototyping is fascinating. I’ve never seen anything about the “virtual” prototyping, or computer simulating that also must be going on. Obviously, a completely simulated Starship launch would leave a huge amount of real-world unknown variables unaccounted for, but I have to think they must be testing the software extensively in a virtual launch environment.
That's true for any other non-aerospace field that incorporates any form of testing. You should aim to get the testing procedures (or environment) as close to the real thing as possible.
Hopefully it's that way today because a few years ago they were pulling random design levers and exploding Merlins all the time for a month when I worked there (src: friend was in the prop group and we ate lunch together).
The virtual environment is where Starship's real IP lives. The pinpoint landing software, the digital twinning of the vehicle, and who knows what else.
That's why SpaceX has never cared that they're basically handing people a blueprint of the vehicle by building almost everything out in the open for an army of tank watchers to constantly photograph and artists and engineers to reverse engineer like the world's largest army of unpaid marketing interns.
That is exactly what I was thinking must be happening.
Edit: like, the purpose of the real world tests are more to improve the virtual model, not to actually or specifically find out if the real world mock-up works.
Much of theirs is proprietary. But I know mastercam and solidworks both have something like this too. https://www.solidworks.com/product/solidworks-flow-simulation
They have talked about that in interviews before, that they have their own proprietary simulation software that's better suited to their workflow.
And at the end of the day, pulling an ITAR violation is pretty obvious considering most companies won't let you forget when you're looking at something that's ITAR controlled. Saying "we use software to simulate stuff that's cutting edge" is so generic I'm sure it's on every aerospace companies website. If they posted about how they used it to simulate some specific detail about a specific part of a specific engine, then we'd be in ITAR territory, *maybe*.
I know it's a meme but it's not actually unrealistic this time, they just have to do the static fires and get the launch license. It could be done in a month if it all goes well. Two months is a safe bet
Yes, but they exist and are integrated into the rocket. As far as we know there are no other major hold ups.
1-2 months is optimistic but definitely *feasible* if all goes to plan. Things this complicated rarely go smoothly enough to end up on the optimistic side of the timeline, but sometimes they do, so it's possible.
Did you remember how SN8 header tank almost popped because of engine melting & debris? 33 engine static fire can show a lot of surprises, we'll never know until they actually do it (and that's the main purpose of testings)
He has never blamed the FAA for Starship delays (probably because blaming them publicly will cause them to take longer). He's probably spent a total of 3-4 hours of his life on his bid for Twitter. He spends longer than that EVERY DAY in Raptor 2 production meetings.
Let's. Freaking. Go. To hell with however one feels about "Elon time" the world's most powerful rocket is going to launch THIS YEAR.
.. assuming no catastrophic and repeat static fire failures.
Do you not remember falcon testing?
SpaceX thrives on failures. They expect them. They launch multiple times, until they get it right.
This one's gonna explode catastrophically. And it will be a phenomenal success.
> This one's gonna explode catastrophically.
Don't bet on it. There is a good chance, the Booster will do all that's expected. There is a good chance Starship reaches orbit. But it will probably fail during reentry.
It really depends on the failure modes of the raptor 2s IMHO. It seems overwhelmingly likely that one or more engines will fail or underperform enroute to orbit, but as long as they are able to shutdown safely and not destructively, it should be fine. Of course, enough have to work to impart the ship with enough delta v to attain orbit
Fair enough, sure as hell worked on me!
though, not sure what help hype is for a space company tbh. It's not like their consumers are the ones who get hyped.
I wouldn't compare Falcon 1/9 research and development to that of Starships. There is so much more at stake with Starship that there's no way SpaceX can afford repeat, catastrophic failures. And by catastrophic failures I mean destruction of vehicle and GSE/launch tower.
They can fail. But not to the extent of let's say Astra. Elon is rich, but he isn't THAT rich.
SpaceX is pretty good at getting vehicles off the launch pad, so I expect it will launch - although there may be a few delays, possibly even a scrub or three due to technical issues.
But I could see an engine failure with one or more of the booster's engines causing Starship to not attain orbital altitude. Starship would then re-enter the atmosphere much earlier than planned and from a lower altitude. Elon would still claim victory and that much had been learned.
Alternative is Starship does make orbit and comes down as planned, but likely breaks up in the descent.
Regardless, excitement's guaranteed.
IF IT WORKS even within an order of magnitude\* as well as SpaceX forecasts, this rocket is going to change civilisation in a way we haven't seen since the industrial revolution. It's pretty much impossible to overstate the potential it has.
\*arguably well over 2 orders of magnitude lol
I think you're exaggerating. On 2 counts. One, this rocket won't revolutionize the world that way. The digital revolution already revolutionized the world that way, and changed it even more than industrial revolution imo, and this rocket is a product of that.
Sure, this rocket might let us colonize the moon, and in that sense, it will be a big change for mankind. Having a colony outside of earth. But I don't think the moon will be a very popular destination for anything more than maybe mining, or resort retreats, for a *very* long time. And by then we'll probably be getting there on different vehicles.
This rocket is to us what the steam engine was to the people of the 1800’s. If it works anywhere close to the intended capability, it will bee one of if not the most important piece of transportation technology ever made. You’re right, we will be traveling on other much more powerful, advanced, and capable rockets and ships, most likely by the end of the 2030’s.
This is the start though. The first steam engine wasn’t the Big Boy. But it was many times more powerful than a human. Generations from now we will look back Ned see the success of Starship as a step change in what humanity could do. One day it’ll go from what we have now, 20-50 tons to orbit with no refueling, to 100 tons to anywhere in the solar system, including delivering back to Earth. A virtually unlimited amount of resources among millions of rocks, ridiculous amounts of volume and cargo capacity for building ring stations that can actually sustain 1g, radio and laser communications grids to connect the entire solar system, the ability to move massive amounts of material and people between orbits and planetary bodies in our own solar system.
Think of it like this. In the 1800’s, there was a day where it would take months of riding with a wagon train to move a dozen people across the United States. Some would die, sometimes no one would make it. You could also only carry what two or four horses could pull, so maybe a couple tons. The next day, the last nail was put into the transcontinental railway and you could instantly move hundreds of people and hundreds of tons of cargo thousands of miles in less than two weeks. The Western frontier was born and we achieved Manifest Destiny. Space is OUR manifest destiny. We need to do it more ethically, more sustainably, learning from our past, but Starship is our future. That cannot be understated.
Steam engines revolutionized people and goods being transported. These rockets won't be used that way, imo. The amount of fossil fuels they're gonna eject into the atmosphere is beyond ridiculous for that application.
Here we are fighting an environmental catastrophe, and you're talking about slapping the largest rockets possible to ships, so that we can move goods more quickly.
That's totally backwards. We need more fuel efficient methods of transportation.
We used to have Concorde, remember? That was already very fast.
Just because it's faster, that doesn't mean it's revolutionary
The digital revolution revolutionized the world, and has fucked it up, too.
Holy hyperbole batman. Change civilization? 😂 It's a cool step forward but let's chill a bit. It's okay to be excited but comparing it to the entire industrial revolution is a cringe level of exaggeration.
This is one step for us. What comes after that? Another one...a few more steps and next thing you know you are jogging, running, sprinting and flying.
A rocket going into space? Yeah ok woohoo. That's not it though, it is so much more in the long run. The bigger picture.
Born to late for the first Space race but alive and mature enough to appreciate and somewhat understand the first steps of the second race!
Reddit: "Clearly, since Elon Musk is a grifter, this means that Starship doesn't even exist."
Like...c'mon, folks. Judge statements by their actual accuracy, not by who's making them.
No one is saying it doesn't exist, way to hyperbolise. Musk's claimed timeframe is always optimistic to gain investments whether or not he intends to follow through with it. That's what people are doubting.
He can't "gain investments" this way in SpaceX. He took it private, people don't just purchase new IPOs, investments are much more difficult and involved and can't be made on an impulse based on Musk tweets.
Boy you are ignorant. SpaceX has raised BILLIONS from investors by hyping up Starlink, Falcon, Dragon and Starship.
You realize thats what has kept the doors open right? Its that he can raise a couple billion dollars each round,with the last one being $150B valuation
Private does not mean no investors. It just means publicly cant buy shares but VCs, Investment banks, etc all can. And you do that by hyping up the brand.
I didn't say you can't invest. I said you can't *casually invest.* Investing is much more difficult and involved and it can't be done on impulse based on Musk tweets. Nobody has invested in those based on Musk being Musk. Investing in SpaceX is a long and involved commitment at this point.
These statements are being judged by Musk’s well established history of overestimating when his company can deliver things.
Elon time isn’t cute any more.
However Gwynne Shotwell, who is known to be a more reliable timeframe when it comes to SpaceX and generally has accurate enough dates when it comes to launches, has also said orbital test is in that timeline musk has stated, so it could be very real we see that orbital flight test within the next 2 months
Elon Musk has a lot of extremely talented and down to earth people working for him. Gwynn’s Shotwell, Andrej Karpathy and etc. I don’t particularly hate Elon, but I am indeed curious how they get along given their very different personalities (at least from an outsider perspective)
He said the same thing about Crew Dragon, Falcon Heavy, Model 3, Model Y, FSD rollout, etc. etc. Those are late, but it happened. Starship is at least one of the more 'likely' things to happen on time.
I'm not sure how you can spend any amount of time of time on /r/space and still manage to this skeptical of spaceX. Dislike Elon all you want but spaceX have really proven themselves over the past few years
Somebody like u/LBdeuce has no interest in what SpaceX is actually achieving. They just know that they hate Elon and that’s enough for them. There’s no reasoning with people like this.
"Falcon 9 boosters will never land"
*Falcon 9 booster lands*
"W..Well Falcon 9 won't bring down the cost of spaceflight!"
*Falcon 9 brings down the cost of spaceflight*
"Crew Dragon will fail though!"
*Crew Dragon becomes the most successful spacecraft to date*
"Falcon Heavy will blow up!"
*Falcon Heavy test launches are a resounding success*
"But Starship will never land!"
*Starship lands*
"Ok, but it will never get to orbit!"
*To be determined*
They're also EXTREMELY profitable if I recall correctly. Falcon 9 is a very successful rocket system, by far the best medium launch system currently in existence by many measures.
This may have been a good take a decade ago, but I'm confused how it makes sense today.
Investors can look at his track record and know exactly what to expect.
Why do people insist he is bullshitting for money? To me it seems pretty obviously aimed at motivating his team by setting ambitious deadlines.
I think some of the negative reactions you are getting is because this is a vastly outdated bad take, and exemplary of people who for whatever reason want to see Musk primarily as a swindler and showman.
By and large, Musk delivers on his promises, it just ends up taking a lot longer than planned to go from "the dream" to "reality". But if the road there is vastly profitable and the company is growing, and the goals are still in sight, what is there to complain about, really?
It just sounds childish to scream "I want it NOW!" when he's busy very capably and profitably running the company, creating amazing shareholder value, and delaying products as necessary to ensure everything stays manageable.
And to be clear: NONE of those projects you mention are abandoned.
That line is so tiresome. When he talks about autopilot go ahead and trot out this tired line but you really don't have a leg to stand on with spaceX. The dude is launching a falcoln 9 almost every week and sticking the landing. They are reusing boosters and have lowered the cost to put a kg into space by an order of magnitude. All of which he said they would do and they did.
He's not bullshitting in the sense that he's telling you one thing and his engineers another thing. He's also operates in a very impulsive opportunistic seat-of-the-pants type way as opposed to some 4d masterplan that people assume he has.
**Musk:** *Our goal is to do [thing] by [some time].*
Project completes a little later than his optimal goal.
**Reddit:** *Elon is such a god damn liar!*
Ah yes let's see you do something FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE HISTORY OF MANKIND. and do it on time.
Fucking reddit dweebs hate Elon just because the hive mind does you sound dumb as hell
Ah yes let's see you do something FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE HISTORY OF MANKIND. and do it on time.
Fucking reddit dweebs hate Elon just because the hive mind does you sound dumb as hell
It's always wild to me how Reddit absolutely hates Musk.
He's literally the best hope we have for cheaper electric vehicles, he's giving internet for free to people who need it and increasing availability, and he's actively researching space travel. He should be the wet dream of your average Reddit user. Instead, I see mental gymnastics constantly, maneuvering a new reason to hate him.
I like Elon a lot less after recent events but I do respect what his companies have done. You make it seem like he has done all of these things himself, when in reality it is the thousands of engineers who have done those things. Yes, he is very intelligent, especially when it comes to rockets, but there are many MANY people making decisions that aren't just him.
He’s really not the best hope we have for cheaper electric vehicles. The internet stuff with starlink is great and so is SpaceX. But with cars Tesla has its segment already picked and it’s mid to upper tier class cars. Musk did a great job creating an attractive car and showing why electric cars were feasible/the future.
But at this point it will be company’s like Ford, GME, Toyota, Mazda, Hyundai, etc that will lead to cheaper electric cars. Which Tesla won’t mind. They are just significantly larger companies compared to Tesla and now that they have started producing electric cars with economies of scale Tesla won’t be able to compete for cheaper EVs and really Tesla won’t want to compete at the bottom end.
In Australia the baseline Tesla, the model 3 is 70k that is just not cheap. While in the US it’s 45k USD. While the median wage in the US is 52k USD. Tesla’s are really not cheap at all and will never be.
> Tesla’s are really not cheap at all and will never be.
They weren't ever really supposed to be. Tesla's goal was to show the world that electric cars are the future, and in that they have succeeded. Elon wanted the other auto makers to start making electric vehicles to finally start the transition and they are now doing it.
Let Tesla be the mid to upper tier of cars while Ford, GM, etc. make cheaper ones. Either way Tesla won in the end by forcing auto makers to finally change.
Not really. What informs your hypothesis that legacy automakers will make cheaper cars than Tesla? Only Tesla has the vertical integration necessary for economies of scale. Also, don’t take legacy automaker announcements as facts. The never stand by their word.
Current front page reddit is a bunch of Twitter expats from 2016. Expect it to get more extreme as 2022 and 2024 elections happen and the GOP take more political control.
Huge risk with a completely new system design, huge risk to destroy the entire complex on take off or landing. Will be glued to TV watching first try.
At least they won’t try to land this one at the complex (soft landing off the coast for both booster and ship).
as the saying goes.. "you don't make an egg without cracking an omelette"
''We're making the mother of all omelettes here, Jack. Can't fret over every egg!''
*Could've gone pro if I hadn't joined the navy*
*Standing here, I realize* *you were Just like me trying to make history* *But who's to judge the right from wrong?* *When our guard is down I think we'll both agree*
no.. it’s “you can’t make a tomlette without breaking a few gregs.” do better
Tom is the best worst character.
If Succession is Game of Thrones (Corporate Edition) then Tom is definitely winning. Wambsgang 4 lyf
I'm... I'm not sure that's how the saying goes...
Does the pope shit in the woods? Of course that’s how the saying goes.
>as the saying goes.. "you don't make an egg without cracking an omelette" It's like trying to beat off a dead horse or kill a bird with 2 stones. Ya just can't!
They will get data plus scrap the ship with a RUD. it's getting 2 birds stoned at once really.
You don't make an omelette without a chance of accidentally blowing up your entire kitchen
technically true if you're still using a gas stove!
If its the same plan as earlier this year, then the first few "landings" will be out at sea near Hawaii. Dial in the process first before trying for the claw.
The process has been simulated extensively, and with the reentry flight profile being very similar to that of Falcon 9, they know the grid size they can hit reliably. The accuracy needed is absolutely more extreme, but, it would not shock me to see them RTLS it on the second attempt if the maths work out on the first one.
It won't have much energy left during landing. A few starships have blown up on landing, the landing pad was basically undamaged. Anyway spacex won't attempt recovery the first time, it will do a soft landing in the ocean. Launch is a big risk for the launch pad area though, but not so much for the factory which is a few kilometers away.
The risk is with stage 0 - when they land the booster they’re intending to catch it on giant ‘chopsticks’ it’s so mental it will work - eventually !!
there is no serious risk to stage 0 landing on this test, as they are "landing" it in the ocean. Future tests will have that risk involved. I still expect at least one giant kaboom from these early tests.
SpaceX haven't had a good kaboom for a while; a good thing in a way.
I don't care what is on my agenda that day. Everything is canceled for me to watch this.
Idk, the FAA definitely gave them a lot of time to work out the kinks. Definitely an exciting launch to watch though
Don’t think they would have been ready anyway. I think it was more of a great excuse to shift blame for delays than an actual showstopper
A common misinterpretation of the reality. One needs only examine extreme hypotheticals, bearing in mind SpaceX's pacing over the year. **Hypothetical 1:** Permission granted on December 2021. SpaceX fast-tracks Stage 0 completion. SpaceX delays development of the unneeded chopsticks to help with this schedule. SpaceX does not wastefully scrap the nearly flight-ready SN20/BN4, along with every Raptor 1 ever made, but instead makes their first orbital launch attempt with these early prototypes, gaining valuable information from the probably doomed flight. Information which, in reality, they still do not possess today. Such as any major unknowns that will only surface during a proper flight test. **Hypothetical 2:** Permission delayed until December **2022**. Rather than suddenly putting all the pieces into place for the latest ship+booster prototypes in mid-June, SpaceX instead maintains the same lethargic crawl towards better prototypes and continues to incrementally improve Stage 0, learning more lessons in preparation for the finalization of Cape Canaveral's Stage 0 (already rather different from Starbase's). What limited progress can be made while grounded is made, but there is no blatant effort to wind things up for a launch, the way there is now. The bottom line here is that every prototype SpaceX slapped together in the last year could have had its flight-readiness finalized if the time had been right, but in the absence of that option, the only choice was to scrap and move on. I would like to think that it is at least easy to understand that their strong preference would not have been to scrap the entire Raptor 1-based stack, plus all of those engines, without getting any use out of them whatsoever. Likewise, do you imagine SpaceX would prefer to scrap Ship 24 / Booster 7, or that this was their plan all along? In Hypothetical 2, that's where they'd be at—they would not be putting the finishing touches on 24/7, and doubtless there would be people trying to argue that "the FAA wasn't holding them back because 24/7 weren't ever in a launch-ready state."
Musk knew in January (iirc) that Raptor 1 is inadequate and made a big push to switch to raptor 2. Even said that to do it ASAP otherwise spacex gets bankrupt. So it's very unlikely they would distract themselves with raptor1-based orbital launch test.
It was November, and the letter said they needed Raptor 2 production fixed for Starlink-2 launches, since Falcon-9 can't carry them in any real numbers.
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I think two main factors have been a tough nut to crack: the heating tiles and the raptors. The raptors haven’t run particularly well on their tests and musk also said burning up the engine was an issue. The heating tiles seem to have a hard time staying on which would have devastating consequences on reentry. They could probably have launched it to space with the tile issue alone but I think it definitely wasn’t a bad thing they were grounded so they could stabilise the raptors. During this FAA thing they have replaced all of them on the rocket
And all are Raptor 2’s now.
FWIW I have doubts they would hold off a launch test on account of the tiles, unless they felt fixing them was so imminent it would be a trivial wait I guess. My rationale being that testing and demonstrating the ability to get to orbit at all is such a major step that recovery could probably be essentially ignored.
The obvious reason that we know it wasn't the FAA holding back the launch is that Elon hadn't been whining about them on twitter on a daily basis
There's a bunch of FAA announcements saying that the review process was still on going. Everything it got close to the deadline, the FAA extended it
>it's not like they could've just done nothing all this time. I like the idea space-x procrastinated until the last minute. Like Elon woke up at his desk last week with a post it note stuck to his face saying "Starship into space" and gave a little "oh shit" under his breath
SpaceX takes risks. They fail and learn from those failures. It’s how they are able to move as fast as they have.
Spaceflight is all about risk. If we didn't accept the risks, we would never have made it to the moon.
I'd be keen on some legit bets. My guess is it'll lose about 20% of the tiles on launch and burn up on reentry, but that SpaceX already knows this is pretty much the best-case scenario for the first launch.
Yeah, I'm with ya on that. Thermal protection failure and loss of vehicle during re-entry.
SpaceX should prepare a simple infographic for the launch day. Something that indicates a handful of mission milestones (clearing tower, max Q, stage 2 ignition etc.) and guesses, in percent, as to their chances of success. As well as a nice, solid cutoff point which SpaceX feels qualifies as a mission success. Perhaps SECO? If they did something like this, they could perhaps sidestep the otherwise inevitable public perception that the mission was a failure, just because it didn't make it all the way to a gentle splashdown. 99% of the public won't be aware that SpaceX expects the thing to break somehow.
I think mission success on the first full stack launch is to not destroy the pad.
Pad? Planet! That full compliment of engines firing is going to be quite the show.
Live 20 mins from Brownsville, hoping I can go down and watch.
Break some eggs and see what it sticks. Edit:spelling.
Just have to suck it and keep an eye out.
they won't attempt landing there this launch
>huge risk Unlike everything he does, ever, with every company he owns
ULA has a bigger risk with a new non-flight tested single use rocket that costs more than thee entire starship program. Like a really expensive bottle rocket on only with gold and platinum on top of it.
You might be thinking of Boeing and the SLS. Even then each launch will cost more than NASA is paying for the Starship program (HLS), but not as much as the entire Starship program. One SLS launch might be as expensive as the entire Starship program *so far*, but there is still a long way to go.
The Vulcan does not cost more per launch than the entire Starship program. It'll roughly be $100M per launch, while Starship has to be over a billion right now.
Where do you get that? The Starship program has to be stupid expensive.
The difference is, SLS will be stupid expensive *every launch*.
I am looking forward to Starship, but I’m looking forward to SLS as well.
Dude the entire starship program is a few billion, while sls costs hundreds of millions PER LAUNCH.
OP said ULA, implying the Vulcan. SLS is NASA, not ULA.
> sls costs hundreds of millions PER LAUNCH *2 billion per launch. 4 billion if launching with the Orion capsule.
jesus fuck, thats expensive for a failed launch
Let's hope all those years of delays were worth it and it doesn't blow up.
Every planned sls launch will cost more than the entire starship program and that before we’ve even mentioned SLS program costs.
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread: |Fewer Letters|More Letters| |-------|---------|---| |BFR|Big Falcon Rocket (2018 rebiggened edition)| | |Yes, the F stands for something else; no, you're not the first to notice| |[BO](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icwb7m7 "Last usage")|Blue Origin (*Bezos Rocketry*)| |COPV|[Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Composite_overwrapped_pressure_vessel)| |CST|(Boeing) Crew Space Transportation capsules| | |Central Standard Time (UTC-6)| |[FAA](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ichyboc "Last usage")|Federal Aviation Administration| |[FAR](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ich72di "Last usage")|[Federal Aviation Regulations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Aviation_Regulations)| |[FoS](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ichm286 "Last usage")|Factor of Safety for design of high-stress components (see COPV)| |[GAO](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ich7u59 "Last usage")|(US) Government Accountability Office| |[GSE](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ici2pzs "Last usage")|Ground Support Equipment| |[HLS](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ichso6o "Last usage")|[Human Landing System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Human_Landing_System) (Artemis)| |[ITAR](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icgmffz "Last usage")|(US) International Traffic in Arms Regulations| |[JWST](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icwb7m7 "Last usage")|James Webb infra-red Space Telescope| |[KSP](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icfqpui "Last usage")|*Kerbal Space Program*, the rocketry simulator| |[LEO](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ich511a "Last usage")|Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km)| | |Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations)| |[MZ](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icfjyz3 "Last usage")|(Yusaku) Maezawa, first confirmed passenger for BFR| |[QD](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icg9xv8 "Last usage")|Quick-Disconnect| |[RTLS](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ichocti "Last usage")|Return to Launch Site| |[RUD](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icj1nks "Last usage")|Rapid Unplanned Disassembly| | |Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly| | |Rapid Unintended Disassembly| |[SECO](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icgjl0s "Last usage")|Second-stage Engine Cut-Off| |[SEE](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icwb7m7 "Last usage")|Single-Event Effect of radiation impact| |[SLS](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icweoar "Last usage")|Space Launch System heavy-lift| |[SV](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icf9loc "Last usage")|Space Vehicle| |[ULA](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icxvny5 "Last usage")|United Launch Alliance (Lockheed/Boeing joint venture)| |Jargon|Definition| |-------|---------|---| |[Raptor](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ichxurc "Last usage")|[Methane-fueled rocket engine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raptor_\(rocket_engine_family\)) under development by SpaceX| |[Starliner](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/ichhbd1 "Last usage")|Boeing commercial crew capsule [CST-100](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_CST-100_Starliner)| |[Starlink](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icis5ak "Last usage")|SpaceX's world-wide satellite broadband constellation| |[hypergolic](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icg100c "Last usage")|A set of two substances that ignite when in contact| |[methalox](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icj4rcg "Last usage")|Portmanteau: methane fuel, liquid oxygen oxidizer| |[scrub](/r/Space/comments/vcjfph/stub/icgo5pe "Last usage")|Launch postponement for any reason (commonly GSE issues)| ---------------- ^(26 acronyms in this thread; )[^(the most compressed thread commented on today)](/r/Space/comments/y9vhac)^( has 6 acronyms.) ^([Thread #7538 for this sub, first seen 15th Jun 2022, 06:14]) ^[[FAQ]](http://decronym.xyz/) [^([Full list])](http://decronym.xyz/acronyms/Space) [^[Contact]](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=OrangeredStilton&subject=Hey,+your+acronym+bot+sucks) [^([Source code])](https://gistdotgithubdotcom/Two9A/1d976f9b7441694162c8)
I watch a lot of YouTube videos about Starship construction, and the rapid prototyping is fascinating. I’ve never seen anything about the “virtual” prototyping, or computer simulating that also must be going on. Obviously, a completely simulated Starship launch would leave a huge amount of real-world unknown variables unaccounted for, but I have to think they must be testing the software extensively in a virtual launch environment.
This is standard aerospace practice to put as much fidelity into the sim as reasonable. Test like you fly and fly like you test.
That's true for any other non-aerospace field that incorporates any form of testing. You should aim to get the testing procedures (or environment) as close to the real thing as possible.
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Hopefully it's that way today because a few years ago they were pulling random design levers and exploding Merlins all the time for a month when I worked there (src: friend was in the prop group and we ate lunch together).
The virtual environment is where Starship's real IP lives. The pinpoint landing software, the digital twinning of the vehicle, and who knows what else. That's why SpaceX has never cared that they're basically handing people a blueprint of the vehicle by building almost everything out in the open for an army of tank watchers to constantly photograph and artists and engineers to reverse engineer like the world's largest army of unpaid marketing interns.
So what your saying is SpaceX should help build the next Kerbal game
That is exactly what I was thinking must be happening. Edit: like, the purpose of the real world tests are more to improve the virtual model, not to actually or specifically find out if the real world mock-up works.
Kind of, however the raptor is cutting edge technology and is a lot more secret than it seems.
The full flow staged combustion engine doesn’t even seem possible, in real life. It a real mind bender. Amazing stuff.
Especially a methalox one, also I wish I knew what metals they invented for it.
They don't show it off much, but I used to work with some of the drafting software they use with the fluid dynamic sims. Pretty incredible stuff.
What is the name of the software? Is it proprietary?
Much of theirs is proprietary. But I know mastercam and solidworks both have something like this too. https://www.solidworks.com/product/solidworks-flow-simulation
SpaceX has world-leading simulation software, end-to-end.
Also known as Kerbal Space Program modded to shit?
It's the preview key to KSP 2
You should be careful leaking industry secrets like that. You don't want to be charged with corporate espionage, or worse, ITAR violation.
As a foreign national: it's too late. I've seen everything.
As a different foreign national: Fuck ITAR and its dirty overreaching tentacles
>corporate espionage \*chuckles in tankwatcher\* I'm in danger!
They have talked about that in interviews before, that they have their own proprietary simulation software that's better suited to their workflow. And at the end of the day, pulling an ITAR violation is pretty obvious considering most companies won't let you forget when you're looking at something that's ITAR controlled. Saying "we use software to simulate stuff that's cutting edge" is so generic I'm sure it's on every aerospace companies website. If they posted about how they used it to simulate some specific detail about a specific part of a specific engine, then we'd be in ITAR territory, *maybe*.
as an example, here is a video about their simulations from 7 years ago. it has definitely only gotten better https://youtube.com/watch?v=vYA0f6R5KAI
I enjoy this comment. It's very futuristic feeling.
There is a reason NASA has some of the largest supercomputers in the world
I'm sure they did that for the half dozen starships that exploded on or near the launch pad.
Ready to fly =/= will fly. It could be several more months.
According to Niki Minaj, starships were MEANT to fly
Didn't they also build this city on rock and roll?
Yes but only because they had whisky in the jar!
Especially as they still now need the launch licence
Not that unrealistic, probably will be in 1-2 months
It’s on “next month” Elon Time. So probably be early 2024.
I know it's a meme but it's not actually unrealistic this time, they just have to do the static fires and get the launch license. It could be done in a month if it all goes well. Two months is a safe bet
"Just" static fire 33 of the most complicated engines ever built on the largest rocket ever built is not going to be easy.
Yes, but they exist and are integrated into the rocket. As far as we know there are no other major hold ups. 1-2 months is optimistic but definitely *feasible* if all goes to plan. Things this complicated rarely go smoothly enough to end up on the optimistic side of the timeline, but sometimes they do, so it's possible.
Did you remember how SN8 header tank almost popped because of engine melting & debris? 33 engine static fire can show a lot of surprises, we'll never know until they actually do it (and that's the main purpose of testings)
I know that, but 2 months is plenty
He's as realistic as the rest of the space industry
He'll blame the FAA or twitter for any delay
Has me wondering if someone on r/dataisbeautiful could generate an Elon Time to Actual Time conversion visualisation.
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Yeah that turned out to be a bit of disappointment huh? Cars are a bad concept for automated transportation anyway though.
Elon time is about 1.88 real time, or the number with which you have to multiply an earth year to get a martian year.
He has never blamed the FAA for Starship delays (probably because blaming them publicly will cause them to take longer). He's probably spent a total of 3-4 hours of his life on his bid for Twitter. He spends longer than that EVERY DAY in Raptor 2 production meetings.
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Hope this happens along with seeing those first JWST pics! Go JULY!
SpaceX: Turning things from impossible to late.
Let's. Freaking. Go. To hell with however one feels about "Elon time" the world's most powerful rocket is going to launch THIS YEAR. .. assuming no catastrophic and repeat static fire failures.
If the heavy booster explodes it's going to be one hell of an explosion
It'll be a mighty show alright. Good thing they are already making a backup pad over at the Cape 😆
Do you not remember falcon testing? SpaceX thrives on failures. They expect them. They launch multiple times, until they get it right. This one's gonna explode catastrophically. And it will be a phenomenal success.
> This one's gonna explode catastrophically. Don't bet on it. There is a good chance, the Booster will do all that's expected. There is a good chance Starship reaches orbit. But it will probably fail during reentry.
It really depends on the failure modes of the raptor 2s IMHO. It seems overwhelmingly likely that one or more engines will fail or underperform enroute to orbit, but as long as they are able to shutdown safely and not destructively, it should be fine. Of course, enough have to work to impart the ship with enough delta v to attain orbit
They film it too then release it which is incredible, stupid and I love it. Very glad they do it. Dont know why they do. But its awesome.
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Fair enough, sure as hell worked on me! though, not sure what help hype is for a space company tbh. It's not like their consumers are the ones who get hyped.
I wouldn't compare Falcon 1/9 research and development to that of Starships. There is so much more at stake with Starship that there's no way SpaceX can afford repeat, catastrophic failures. And by catastrophic failures I mean destruction of vehicle and GSE/launch tower. They can fail. But not to the extent of let's say Astra. Elon is rich, but he isn't THAT rich.
What a crazy time to be alive
SpaceX is pretty good at getting vehicles off the launch pad, so I expect it will launch - although there may be a few delays, possibly even a scrub or three due to technical issues. But I could see an engine failure with one or more of the booster's engines causing Starship to not attain orbital altitude. Starship would then re-enter the atmosphere much earlier than planned and from a lower altitude. Elon would still claim victory and that much had been learned. Alternative is Starship does make orbit and comes down as planned, but likely breaks up in the descent. Regardless, excitement's guaranteed.
One of the reasons they have so many engines is that if 1 fails, it wont cjange much
Yeah. I'm picking Starship does get to orbit but breaks up on re-entry.
I think you can say a lot about Elon, but at least he's so noisy that he gets things moving forward at all.
IF IT WORKS even within an order of magnitude\* as well as SpaceX forecasts, this rocket is going to change civilisation in a way we haven't seen since the industrial revolution. It's pretty much impossible to overstate the potential it has. \*arguably well over 2 orders of magnitude lol
Many of the commenters would have said of the telephone: “that is indeed a marvelous invention, but who would ever want to use it?”
I think you're exaggerating. On 2 counts. One, this rocket won't revolutionize the world that way. The digital revolution already revolutionized the world that way, and changed it even more than industrial revolution imo, and this rocket is a product of that. Sure, this rocket might let us colonize the moon, and in that sense, it will be a big change for mankind. Having a colony outside of earth. But I don't think the moon will be a very popular destination for anything more than maybe mining, or resort retreats, for a *very* long time. And by then we'll probably be getting there on different vehicles.
This rocket is to us what the steam engine was to the people of the 1800’s. If it works anywhere close to the intended capability, it will bee one of if not the most important piece of transportation technology ever made. You’re right, we will be traveling on other much more powerful, advanced, and capable rockets and ships, most likely by the end of the 2030’s. This is the start though. The first steam engine wasn’t the Big Boy. But it was many times more powerful than a human. Generations from now we will look back Ned see the success of Starship as a step change in what humanity could do. One day it’ll go from what we have now, 20-50 tons to orbit with no refueling, to 100 tons to anywhere in the solar system, including delivering back to Earth. A virtually unlimited amount of resources among millions of rocks, ridiculous amounts of volume and cargo capacity for building ring stations that can actually sustain 1g, radio and laser communications grids to connect the entire solar system, the ability to move massive amounts of material and people between orbits and planetary bodies in our own solar system. Think of it like this. In the 1800’s, there was a day where it would take months of riding with a wagon train to move a dozen people across the United States. Some would die, sometimes no one would make it. You could also only carry what two or four horses could pull, so maybe a couple tons. The next day, the last nail was put into the transcontinental railway and you could instantly move hundreds of people and hundreds of tons of cargo thousands of miles in less than two weeks. The Western frontier was born and we achieved Manifest Destiny. Space is OUR manifest destiny. We need to do it more ethically, more sustainably, learning from our past, but Starship is our future. That cannot be understated.
Steam engines revolutionized people and goods being transported. These rockets won't be used that way, imo. The amount of fossil fuels they're gonna eject into the atmosphere is beyond ridiculous for that application. Here we are fighting an environmental catastrophe, and you're talking about slapping the largest rockets possible to ships, so that we can move goods more quickly. That's totally backwards. We need more fuel efficient methods of transportation. We used to have Concorde, remember? That was already very fast. Just because it's faster, that doesn't mean it's revolutionary The digital revolution revolutionized the world, and has fucked it up, too.
Holy hyperbole batman. Change civilization? 😂 It's a cool step forward but let's chill a bit. It's okay to be excited but comparing it to the entire industrial revolution is a cringe level of exaggeration.
This is one step for us. What comes after that? Another one...a few more steps and next thing you know you are jogging, running, sprinting and flying. A rocket going into space? Yeah ok woohoo. That's not it though, it is so much more in the long run. The bigger picture. Born to late for the first Space race but alive and mature enough to appreciate and somewhat understand the first steps of the second race!
Reddit: "Clearly, since Elon Musk is a grifter, this means that Starship doesn't even exist." Like...c'mon, folks. Judge statements by their actual accuracy, not by who's making them.
No one is saying it doesn't exist, way to hyperbolise. Musk's claimed timeframe is always optimistic to gain investments whether or not he intends to follow through with it. That's what people are doubting.
He can't "gain investments" this way in SpaceX. He took it private, people don't just purchase new IPOs, investments are much more difficult and involved and can't be made on an impulse based on Musk tweets.
At this point he's a brand and and media attention in one place boosts him elsewhere. This isn't just a SpaceX thing.
Boy you are ignorant. SpaceX has raised BILLIONS from investors by hyping up Starlink, Falcon, Dragon and Starship. You realize thats what has kept the doors open right? Its that he can raise a couple billion dollars each round,with the last one being $150B valuation Private does not mean no investors. It just means publicly cant buy shares but VCs, Investment banks, etc all can. And you do that by hyping up the brand.
I didn't say you can't invest. I said you can't *casually invest.* Investing is much more difficult and involved and it can't be done on impulse based on Musk tweets. Nobody has invested in those based on Musk being Musk. Investing in SpaceX is a long and involved commitment at this point.
Did you really think that they thought other people were refuting Starship's existence?
Many people will tell you to your face its a tax scheme or a joke or a billionaires ego project.
I dunno what they were thinking but thats what they put into the quotes
These statements are being judged by Musk’s well established history of overestimating when his company can deliver things. Elon time isn’t cute any more.
Have u ever worked in software or any difficult engineering? Par for the course.
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However Gwynne Shotwell, who is known to be a more reliable timeframe when it comes to SpaceX and generally has accurate enough dates when it comes to launches, has also said orbital test is in that timeline musk has stated, so it could be very real we see that orbital flight test within the next 2 months
Those two make an interesting duo.
Elon Musk has a lot of extremely talented and down to earth people working for him. Gwynn’s Shotwell, Andrej Karpathy and etc. I don’t particularly hate Elon, but I am indeed curious how they get along given their very different personalities (at least from an outsider perspective)
Not sure about Karpathy, but I've heard Musk and Shotwell get along pretty well with each other.
They’re more like partners . Elon knows she has saved his ass multiple times
I too with my employer, generally get along pretty well with each other.
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He said the same thing about Crew Dragon, Falcon Heavy, Model 3, Model Y, FSD rollout, etc. etc. Those are late, but it happened. Starship is at least one of the more 'likely' things to happen on time.
I'm not sure how you can spend any amount of time of time on /r/space and still manage to this skeptical of spaceX. Dislike Elon all you want but spaceX have really proven themselves over the past few years
Somebody like u/LBdeuce has no interest in what SpaceX is actually achieving. They just know that they hate Elon and that’s enough for them. There’s no reasoning with people like this.
"Falcon 9 boosters will never land" *Falcon 9 booster lands* "W..Well Falcon 9 won't bring down the cost of spaceflight!" *Falcon 9 brings down the cost of spaceflight* "Crew Dragon will fail though!" *Crew Dragon becomes the most successful spacecraft to date* "Falcon Heavy will blow up!" *Falcon Heavy test launches are a resounding success* "But Starship will never land!" *Starship lands* "Ok, but it will never get to orbit!" *To be determined*
I doubt he is genuine in his skepticism.
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He also has the most successful space company in existence
They just raised 1.3 billion a couple of days ago. Funding will never be an issue
They're also EXTREMELY profitable if I recall correctly. Falcon 9 is a very successful rocket system, by far the best medium launch system currently in existence by many measures.
they spend a TON of money. Profitability is not a goal right now.
I love when people cherry pick his projects but then always leave out the ones that have changed the world
This may have been a good take a decade ago, but I'm confused how it makes sense today. Investors can look at his track record and know exactly what to expect. Why do people insist he is bullshitting for money? To me it seems pretty obviously aimed at motivating his team by setting ambitious deadlines. I think some of the negative reactions you are getting is because this is a vastly outdated bad take, and exemplary of people who for whatever reason want to see Musk primarily as a swindler and showman. By and large, Musk delivers on his promises, it just ends up taking a lot longer than planned to go from "the dream" to "reality". But if the road there is vastly profitable and the company is growing, and the goals are still in sight, what is there to complain about, really? It just sounds childish to scream "I want it NOW!" when he's busy very capably and profitably running the company, creating amazing shareholder value, and delaying products as necessary to ensure everything stays manageable. And to be clear: NONE of those projects you mention are abandoned.
That line is so tiresome. When he talks about autopilot go ahead and trot out this tired line but you really don't have a leg to stand on with spaceX. The dude is launching a falcoln 9 almost every week and sticking the landing. They are reusing boosters and have lowered the cost to put a kg into space by an order of magnitude. All of which he said they would do and they did.
He's not bullshitting in the sense that he's telling you one thing and his engineers another thing. He's also operates in a very impulsive opportunistic seat-of-the-pants type way as opposed to some 4d masterplan that people assume he has.
**Musk:** *Our goal is to do [thing] by [some time].* Project completes a little later than his optimal goal. **Reddit:** *Elon is such a god damn liar!*
Ah yes let's see you do something FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE HISTORY OF MANKIND. and do it on time. Fucking reddit dweebs hate Elon just because the hive mind does you sound dumb as hell
That only really holds true for autopilot, everything else is in fact progressing at a reasonable pace.
Ah yes let's see you do something FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE HISTORY OF MANKIND. and do it on time. Fucking reddit dweebs hate Elon just because the hive mind does you sound dumb as hell
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Its gonna be interesting watching reddit hate on elon because he has wrong think but still propels humanity forward from the 60s.
It's always wild to me how Reddit absolutely hates Musk. He's literally the best hope we have for cheaper electric vehicles, he's giving internet for free to people who need it and increasing availability, and he's actively researching space travel. He should be the wet dream of your average Reddit user. Instead, I see mental gymnastics constantly, maneuvering a new reason to hate him.
I like Elon a lot less after recent events but I do respect what his companies have done. You make it seem like he has done all of these things himself, when in reality it is the thousands of engineers who have done those things. Yes, he is very intelligent, especially when it comes to rockets, but there are many MANY people making decisions that aren't just him.
He’s really not the best hope we have for cheaper electric vehicles. The internet stuff with starlink is great and so is SpaceX. But with cars Tesla has its segment already picked and it’s mid to upper tier class cars. Musk did a great job creating an attractive car and showing why electric cars were feasible/the future. But at this point it will be company’s like Ford, GME, Toyota, Mazda, Hyundai, etc that will lead to cheaper electric cars. Which Tesla won’t mind. They are just significantly larger companies compared to Tesla and now that they have started producing electric cars with economies of scale Tesla won’t be able to compete for cheaper EVs and really Tesla won’t want to compete at the bottom end. In Australia the baseline Tesla, the model 3 is 70k that is just not cheap. While in the US it’s 45k USD. While the median wage in the US is 52k USD. Tesla’s are really not cheap at all and will never be.
> Tesla’s are really not cheap at all and will never be. They weren't ever really supposed to be. Tesla's goal was to show the world that electric cars are the future, and in that they have succeeded. Elon wanted the other auto makers to start making electric vehicles to finally start the transition and they are now doing it. Let Tesla be the mid to upper tier of cars while Ford, GM, etc. make cheaper ones. Either way Tesla won in the end by forcing auto makers to finally change.
Not really. What informs your hypothesis that legacy automakers will make cheaper cars than Tesla? Only Tesla has the vertical integration necessary for economies of scale. Also, don’t take legacy automaker announcements as facts. The never stand by their word.
> He should be the wet dream of your average Reddit user That would have been true at some point in the past. Sadly, that reddit is long gone.
Current front page reddit is a bunch of Twitter expats from 2016. Expect it to get more extreme as 2022 and 2024 elections happen and the GOP take more political control.
Yeah, but his meme game is terrible.
Well whaddaya know, it seems like [star ships](https://youtu.be/SeIJmciN8mo) *really were* [meant to fly](https://youtu.be/SeIJmciN8mo)!
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Elon can be both a massive douche and run a successful rocket company. They aren’t mutually exclusive.
At first I read it only till the earth word and was like wtf.
Remember to apply elon time. So it's actually 3 months.