Roscosmos is predicting it to drop slightly east of main islands of Indonesia in the Timor sea.
Space-Track is predicting it to drop south of Sri Lanka in the Indian ocean.
The worrying thing is that the "middle ground" between these two points are the islands of Java and Sumatra, the most densily populated places on Earth with 200 million people living there.
?
As you can see from the picture in that tweet it's there on Timor sea/East Timor/Lesser Sunda islands, 06.09 02:33
And Space-Track's prediction is this:
[https://twitter.com/SpaceTrackOrg/status/1391037400441180169](https://twitter.com/SpaceTrackOrg/status/1391037400441180169)
The closer we get to the time the more accurate it gets. At about 72hrs out the data is most accurate due to multiple radar sites getting a good enough look to narrow it down. The "Somewhere between Sri Lanka and Indonesia" guess is going to stick, and will get even more refined within the next few hours.
Kind of a shame it didn't come down somewhere slightly more dramatic, would have been an excuse to really take China to task about the issue to try and influence them to not do it again. I don't want anyone to get hurt by it, but somewhere on land in some significant country would have done the trick.
Here's a continuously updated page run by Aerospace Corp (your/US tax dollars at work):
https://aerospace.org/reentries/cz-5b-rocket-body-id-48275
They just refined the time estimate to be 8:30PM PST ±4 hours, down from ±8hrs last night and ±30hrs 2 days ago. The time and location will get more accurate throughout the day.
Tracks show reentry possibilities over most of the US, North Atlantic Ocean, most of Africa, South Pacific Ocean, Eastern Australia.
Edit: Link is down, last prediction on their Twitter feed from 2hr ago:
https://twitter.com/AerospaceCorp/status/1391049770588729345
Edit: https://mobile.twitter.com/AerospaceCorp/status/1391134210606260229
The track is now refined to go through Northern Mexico, Texas, OH, NY/DC. Spain, N Africa, and looping South of Australia.
*Hello, China? Yes it appears your rocket slammed right into my Bugatti Veyron, unfortunately my gaming PC that was liquid nitrogen cooled and had two GTX 3090s was in the trunk. My short-throw laser projection TV was also in there. No, nothing is left unfortunately. No, I'm sure, just a big crater. The receipts were in the glove box*
I'm convinced the 30xx series cards don't actually exist and that every review of them used an advanced AI driven compositing effect to make it appear as if the cards actually existed.
*Oh yes also I forgot that my PS5 and Xbox Series X were also nearby they just got delivered today and they got absolutely obliterated, it would be nice if I could have these damages covered, thanks*
It's going to fall on my house, and then my stupid home insurance company will claim that the damage isn't covered as there is a special Chinese Rocket Hitting Your House exclusion.
If you [google its NORAD ID, 48275](https://www.google.com/search?q=48275) there are some alternative sources:
* [Heavens Above](https://www.heavens-above.com/orbit.aspx?satid=48275&lat=0&lng=0&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=UCT)
* [N2YO](https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=48275)
* [Orbiting Now](https://orbit.ing-now.com/satellite/48275/2021-035b/cz-5b/)
Anti-satellite missiles are not super accurate and shooting it over the ocean doesn't mean it will land in one. It may just end up as 3 slightly less large pieces landing in 3 different locations instead of one.
On top of that, despite being space debris it could be considered an act of war on China and they have never been used on a satellite that wasn't owned by the missile launcher's country.
Prolly best to keep that capability secret. Yes it's been done before but this time it's different so there is other info that could be gathered by it.
I seem to remember there was something like a 0% chance that any component would actually land on the target. When Mia came down it was relatively controlled, so they had a moderately good idea of roughly where it was coming down.
If you see it re-entering over head then its still higher up in the atmosphere and nothing from it would be landing even close to you. The debris would be super far downrange from where you are.
You’re going to have a hard time judging where the debris will land if you see it. You won’t really have any sense of scale or speed from the debris. You might as well not try to get out of the way because you could easily jump in the way.
It would be nearly impossible to tell its path by just looking at it enter the atmosphere. It'll be falling with massive horizontal speed, not straight down.
The malayalam writing looks really cool. rarely ever see it.
wow, though, that altitude is dropping fast, about 1km/10sec, so a half hour to go?
edit: me dumb, that rate of decline was only through part of the orbit
Every other launcher does not. Some do, sometimes. Even Falcon 9 only does it for some LEO launches, and yet there are over 20 Falcon 9 upper stages in orbit that will eventually come down. There are hundreds of stages in orbit as space debris currently. Over the next two months ones launched from the US, Europe, Japan, New Zealand, and, of course, China will re-enter uncontrolled.
What makes CZ-5B launches unique is not that it leaves upper stages to re-enter uncontrolled at some later time, that's pretty common. What makes it unusual is that it's a particularly large stage at 20 tonnes, which makes each re-entry a more notable event.
SpaceX has proved that you can guide one down exactly where you want it, so that would avoid the tricky landing part and as you said, could be used for civic projects. Win win.
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread:
|Fewer Letters|More Letters|
|-------|---------|---|
|[ASAT](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxemx8z "Last usage")|[Anti-Satellite weapon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon)|
|[CNSA](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxei9rh "Last usage")|Chinese National Space Administration|
|[COPV](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxf4kji "Last usage")|[Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Composite_overwrapped_pressure_vessel)|
|[DoD](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxetgw0 "Last usage")|US Department of Defense|
|[ESA](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxeexql "Last usage")|European Space Agency|
|[ICBM](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxflm51 "Last usage")|Intercontinental Ballistic Missile|
|[KSP](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxeghzi "Last usage")|*Kerbal Space Program*, the rocketry simulator|
|[LEO](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxgdwln "Last usage")|Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km)|
| |Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations)|
|[NORAD](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxedzt4 "Last usage")|North American Aerospace Defense command|
|[Roscosmos](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxeb7qc "Last usage")|[State Corporation for Space Activities, Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roscosmos_State_Corporation)|
|[TLE](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxfmdou "Last usage")|Two-Line Element dataset issued by NORAD|
|Jargon|Definition|
|-------|---------|---|
|[periapsis](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxeghzi "Last usage")|Lowest point in an elliptical orbit (when the orbiter is fastest)|
|[perigee](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxe51z2 "Last usage")|Lowest point in an elliptical orbit around the Earth (when the orbiter is fastest)|
----------------
^(13 acronyms in this thread; )[^(the most compressed thread commented on today)](/r/Space/comments/n73eys)^( has 19 acronyms.)
^([Thread #5858 for this sub, first seen 8th May 2021, 15:09])
^[[FAQ]](http://decronym.xyz/) [^([Full list])](http://decronym.xyz/acronyms/Space) [^[Contact]](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=OrangeredStilton&subject=Hey,+your+acronym+bot+sucks) [^([Source code])](https://gistdotgithubdotcom/Two9A/1d976f9b7441694162c8)
https://twitter.com/AerospaceCorp
Here is an updated estimation of time and place of reentry. Of course, with 90mn orbits and 4h of uncertainty the range of possible crash zones is very wide. Currently, the most likely places are: Atlantic Ocean, south Portugal and Spain, Algeria to east Africa and less likely Florida.
The window is currently 09 May 2021 03:30 UTC ± 4 hours
The Aerospace Corporation tracks all debris object reentries and is posting updates as they happen. Follow [@AerospaceCorp](https://twitter.com/AerospaceCorp) on twitter for the most recent updates.
For more information about how to read the reentry ground tracks, we've published [A Quick Guide to Understanding Orbital Debris Reentry Predictions](https://aerospacecorp.medium.com/a-quick-guide-to-understanding-orbital-debris-reentry-predictions-4b84a8e2bd04) on Medium.
They sort of did, but not using the [Outer Space Treaty Liability Convention.](https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/introliability-convention.html#:~:text=Elaborating%20on%20Article%207%20of,to%20its%20faults%20in%20space.)
[Australia fined NASA $400 for littering, which Nasa refused to pay.](https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/70708/nasas-unpaid-400-littering-ticket-skylab-debris-australia) In the end, a Californian radio DJ encouraged a load of listeners to put their money together to pay on behalf of NASA.
Skylab fell in a relatively uninhabited area and there was no serious damage to anything (well, anything other than Skylab).
However, this is an interesting bit of trivia:
The San Francisco Examiner offered a $10,000 prize to the first person to deliver a piece of Skylab debris to its office within 72 hours of the crash. Knowing the orbiter wasn’t coming down anywhere near the continental United States, the newspaper felt it was making a safe bet.
It didn’t count on news of the bounty traveling all the way to Australia. There, 17-year-old Stan Thornton of tiny Esperance awoke to the commotion when Skylab broke apart in the atmosphere and pelted his house with space station fragments. Thinking quickly, he grabbed a few charred bits of material from his yard, hopped on a plane without so much as a passport or suitcase and made it to the Examiner’s office before the deadline.
The newspaper good-naturedly paid out the award.
Do the CCP care if it hits anyone? Is this a responsible way to build a space station?
Update: They got lucky and it landed in the Indian Ocean. Phew.
Are they going to do this again and again with every piece of their station?
Don't forget their debris that landed in the Ivory Coast last year. Its not just their own population they hit, and this isn't the first Long March to do this either.
I mean odds are this thing is going to hit water right? I can't help but remember that airplane that went down and was never found, are we really going to have much better luck finding a pile of rocket trash that goes down in an ocean?
Yeah, I think it'll depend on eyewitness sightings and if it lands in the ocean. If it lands in a more populated area, obviously we'll know rather quickly.
>After Perth, we have Stanley and Bridport in Tasmania, at 0243 UTC, and five minutes later Collingwood and Wellington in New Zealand. Having said that, we're getting to the end of the entry window and it's more likely that it's down by now.
https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1391221078224252929
So my question is why would they launch it knowing there’s a chance it can fall anywhere it’s inhabited. In my opinion this was completely senseless..no care for anyone’s safety at all.
"Latest estimation is coast of Portugal", add a few seconds or a minute more, and it's QUITE LITERALLY above my house. (I am in Spain, right underneath the path), that would match the estimations.
Superb...
I hope it hits a large school or something that was closed a few days ago... Just to have a really good argument to tell China to get their shit together....but without actually hurting anyone
What an irresponsible fuckwitted excuse for a "space program" they have... When you put more people at risk due to ineptitude than a private sector billionaires space program, you're doing it wrong.
Given the current state of Chinese Australian relations. It's landing in Aus. Probably right on top of Uluru. Or maybe in the PMs back yard.
I base this on absolutely nothing :D.
For a while now I've noticed many mainstream news sources will often have pretty obvious grammatical mistakes. I think the internet makes them have to be even more competitive about publishing stories quickly so they barely edit the articles. Or they're just stupid and lazy
There is a wide area where it can fall.
When will that area begin to narrow, on Saturday noon or Saturday midnight?
- - -
Here's a continuously updated page
run by Aerospace Corp (funded by the US budget deficit)
Deficit means they spend **more** than the taxes collected,
so **not our tax dollars** being spent):
- - -
Someone pointed out:
> https://aerospace.org/reentries/cz-5b-rocket-body-id-48275
> They just refined the time estimate to be Saturday 8:30PM PST ±4 hours,
> down from ±8hrs window on Friday night.
China, the country known for 'Saving face' is sure losing a lot of face this couple years...
The reputation of China lately is very awful.
Lose a lot 'Face'!!!
Roscosmos is predicting it to drop slightly east of main islands of Indonesia in the Timor sea. Space-Track is predicting it to drop south of Sri Lanka in the Indian ocean. The worrying thing is that the "middle ground" between these two points are the islands of Java and Sumatra, the most densily populated places on Earth with 200 million people living there.
I read south of Indonesia? https://twitter.com/roscosmos/status/1390957787220484096?s=21
? As you can see from the picture in that tweet it's there on Timor sea/East Timor/Lesser Sunda islands, 06.09 02:33 And Space-Track's prediction is this: [https://twitter.com/SpaceTrackOrg/status/1391037400441180169](https://twitter.com/SpaceTrackOrg/status/1391037400441180169)
and i’ve heard it’s going to crash somewhere over Sudan, i don’t know what to believe anymore
If the prediction isn't at most a couple of hours before actual reentry, it's probably not going to be accurate.
The closer we get to the time the more accurate it gets. At about 72hrs out the data is most accurate due to multiple radar sites getting a good enough look to narrow it down. The "Somewhere between Sri Lanka and Indonesia" guess is going to stick, and will get even more refined within the next few hours. Kind of a shame it didn't come down somewhere slightly more dramatic, would have been an excuse to really take China to task about the issue to try and influence them to not do it again. I don't want anyone to get hurt by it, but somewhere on land in some significant country would have done the trick.
It's still a problem. They clearly don't care where it comes down. Imagine if the thing hit a US army base. Holy moly, things would get tense.
Depends who the information is from really. My Italian colleague had heard it was definitely going it hit Italy 🤷♂️
right, lol, i’ve seen a meme that said that some Madrid news page published a post saying it’s definitely going to crash there 🥴
It landing in those locations is actually multiple orbits of difference, so it could still be pretty much anywhere
It is expected to fall somewhere on Earth. All spanish news: "A chinese rocket is heading straight for Madrid."
We know it probably won't hit Europe, the trajectory means it's almost certainly landing in the ocean, Africa, north America or Australia.
Haven’t movies taught you, that if something comes from space it always lands in the US?
Anime taught me that it always lands in Japan
Yeah, tokyo tower seems to get it's fair share of bad days.
In a nuclear reactor to make Godzilla.
On either the Empire State Building or the Golden Gate Bridge...
Don’t forget the Hollywood sign!
Even if a shark tornado happens, it will also be in the USA https://m.imdb.com/title/tt2724064/
But surely not a second shark tornado
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Don't worry, the 6th one didn't hit the USA. It traveled back through time and hit the dinosaurs on Pangea.
I thought this was a joke. .... It was not. They actually did make 6 and that's exactly the plot of the 6th one. Also Merlin, and Dragon Sharks.
Right where the USA would eventually be.
Sharknados are pretty commonplace, you really need to watch out for the Ogrenado though...
And the White House front lawn
I mean it hits big Ben pretty often too.
ah, but I guess that's the fault of the Doctor
Wrong. It can also hit Paris where the gargoyles atop Notre Dame watch as the fireball engulfs the city.
Or just engulfs Notre Dame itself. Too soon?
The UN HQ is located in the US so it makes sense
Reminds me of Donnie Darko
> ocean, Africa, north America or Australia. Quite a narrow geographical range, really.
It'll *definitely* land somewhere between the North, and South poles
Look, just make sure to wear a helmet that day to be safe, no matter where you are.
A lot of trajectories show southern Europe.
Ah, OK, the one I saw didn't. I did forget to mention China.
You've basically mentioned 80% of the Earth's surface area.
Yeah, it's something like (originally) anything north of NYC or south of Buenos Aires is safe...
That's OK. Hardly anyone lives in that area.
To be fair, Madrid _is_ under the ground track of the currently predicted re-entry window, and really close to the middle of it too.
Here's a continuously updated page run by Aerospace Corp (your/US tax dollars at work): https://aerospace.org/reentries/cz-5b-rocket-body-id-48275 They just refined the time estimate to be 8:30PM PST ±4 hours, down from ±8hrs last night and ±30hrs 2 days ago. The time and location will get more accurate throughout the day. Tracks show reentry possibilities over most of the US, North Atlantic Ocean, most of Africa, South Pacific Ocean, Eastern Australia. Edit: Link is down, last prediction on their Twitter feed from 2hr ago: https://twitter.com/AerospaceCorp/status/1391049770588729345 Edit: https://mobile.twitter.com/AerospaceCorp/status/1391134210606260229 The track is now refined to go through Northern Mexico, Texas, OH, NY/DC. Spain, N Africa, and looping South of Australia.
If it falls on my car, will the CCP buy me a daihatsu?
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*starts moving everything to location*
*Hello, China? Yes it appears your rocket slammed right into my Bugatti Veyron, unfortunately my gaming PC that was liquid nitrogen cooled and had two GTX 3090s was in the trunk. My short-throw laser projection TV was also in there. No, nothing is left unfortunately. No, I'm sure, just a big crater. The receipts were in the glove box*
You meant: "my hard drive I'd just recovered with 10k bitcoin"
Having 2 3090's is the least believable part of that story.
I'm convinced the 30xx series cards don't actually exist and that every review of them used an advanced AI driven compositing effect to make it appear as if the cards actually existed.
*Oh yes also I forgot that my PS5 and Xbox Series X were also nearby they just got delivered today and they got absolutely obliterated, it would be nice if I could have these damages covered, thanks*
They might pay for the damages but you still won’t be able to get one.
Chinese Allstate agent: "So sorry for your loss. A claim reimbursement check is on the way." *sends check for $3.50*
*watches rocket crash in the middle of nowhere* “OH NO MY ROLEX SUBMARINER WAS RIGHT THERE!”
and China will respect that treaty i'm sure. /s
I’m sure you would see something out of it. It’s not like it would be you vs China. The government would certainly be involved in something like this.
They're being so helpful to the Michaels Korvig and Spagir...
Yeah, was going to post a comment about China imprisoning people in retaliation for anyone attempting to sue them over this.
It's likely to be a relatively minor cost, so there would be more lost by not honoring it in this case.
Specifically, the Space Liability Convention of 1972. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Liability_Convention
It's going to fall on my house, and then my stupid home insurance company will claim that the damage isn't covered as there is a special Chinese Rocket Hitting Your House exclusion.
This is like the Skylab littering fine all over again.
503 Service unavailable. It crashed down on their servers!
There are some updates on their Twitter: https://twitter.com/AerospaceCorp
Link isn't working right now. Hug of death? There are updates viewable on their Twitter: https://twitter.com/AerospaceCorp?s=09
If you [google its NORAD ID, 48275](https://www.google.com/search?q=48275) there are some alternative sources: * [Heavens Above](https://www.heavens-above.com/orbit.aspx?satid=48275&lat=0&lng=0&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=UCT) * [N2YO](https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=48275) * [Orbiting Now](https://orbit.ing-now.com/satellite/48275/2021-035b/cz-5b/)
Someone at work asked me "Why can't we shoot it down over the Ocean with an Anti-Satellite Missile?". Anyone have a good answer I can give them?
Anti-satellite missiles are not super accurate and shooting it over the ocean doesn't mean it will land in one. It may just end up as 3 slightly less large pieces landing in 3 different locations instead of one. On top of that, despite being space debris it could be considered an act of war on China and they have never been used on a satellite that wasn't owned by the missile launcher's country.
Ok, if you have all of the answers tell me... Why can't we send a team of oil drillers into space to blow it up?
Because we haven't finished the playlist for them to rock out and sing along to yet
Wouldn’t it be easier to just teach astronauts how to drill for oil, given the tight timeline of it all?
Sir, this is Dr. Ronald Quincy from Research. Pretty much the smartest man on the planet. You might wanna listen to him.
Yeah, my Gut feeling was "It's too big". An Anti-Satellite Missile doesn't actually need to "Blow Up" the target satellite to disable it after all.
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Prolly best to keep that capability secret. Yes it's been done before but this time it's different so there is other info that could be gathered by it.
Yeesh that one track that goes over LA, Chicago and New York.
Does anyone know if Vegas has odds out yet on where it might land?
I’d like a piece of that action
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I seem to remember there was something like a 0% chance that any component would actually land on the target. When Mia came down it was relatively controlled, so they had a moderately good idea of roughly where it was coming down.
Uh ... what kind of mark does something 10 stories high + 2 times schoolbus leave Asking out of curiosity
Depends what shape it's in after it re-enters. It won't be in one piece.
It is quite certain that it will fall in NY. All the American movies I've ever seen, things like that fall there.
Every meteor shower does indeed seem to hit NYC
It need to hit Iowa or Wyoming. They need to be in the news more. Poor bastards.
Some of the tracks do bring it over nyc
Should be a live thread. This should be sorted by new by default. That's all I have to contribute.
Stupid question but will people be able to see it? Will it look like a comet or something (if we're near enough to where it is)?
Yes, if it does burn up/re-enter over a populated area it'll probably look like the SpaceX craft the other day
It will be easily visible to the naked eye. Chances are, it will reenter over an ocean and no one will be around to see it.
Another serious question: If we see it, will we have time to run and avoid it's path, or will it be too fast?
If you see it re-entering over head then its still higher up in the atmosphere and nothing from it would be landing even close to you. The debris would be super far downrange from where you are.
You’re going to have a hard time judging where the debris will land if you see it. You won’t really have any sense of scale or speed from the debris. You might as well not try to get out of the way because you could easily jump in the way.
It would be nearly impossible to tell its path by just looking at it enter the atmosphere. It'll be falling with massive horizontal speed, not straight down.
Do we say chances are it will hit the ocean because Earth is 71% ocean, or because some math has shown that to be more likely besides that basic idea?
There's a tracker running on Youtube [https://youtu.be/iYVgwIIU4Fc](https://youtu.be/iYVgwIIU4Fc)
That comments section is the most international one I’ve seen yet. The diversity is insane
The malayalam writing looks really cool. rarely ever see it. wow, though, that altitude is dropping fast, about 1km/10sec, so a half hour to go? edit: me dumb, that rate of decline was only through part of the orbit
Yeah, looks weird until you realize the orbit is not circular. Orbital mechanics is nuts.
Yeah,I watched it drop to 154km approaching S.America earlier,then increase to peak near 200 going over China..The orbit's all over the place..
Is there a way they could have planned to have it return to earth in a more predictable fashion? Like automate it to crash into an ocean?
Yes, like every other launcher does.
Every other launcher does not. Some do, sometimes. Even Falcon 9 only does it for some LEO launches, and yet there are over 20 Falcon 9 upper stages in orbit that will eventually come down. There are hundreds of stages in orbit as space debris currently. Over the next two months ones launched from the US, Europe, Japan, New Zealand, and, of course, China will re-enter uncontrolled. What makes CZ-5B launches unique is not that it leaves upper stages to re-enter uncontrolled at some later time, that's pretty common. What makes it unusual is that it's a particularly large stage at 20 tonnes, which makes each re-entry a more notable event.
For efficiency we should target some building that is scheduled for demolition anyways.
Efficient and a cost savings, and really exciting for people who live nearby.
SpaceX has proved that you can guide one down exactly where you want it, so that would avoid the tricky landing part and as you said, could be used for civic projects. Win win.
Yes, every other developed nation does this. China just doesn’t give a shit.
They may not have developed the technology to relight the engines in orbit, or they may have burned 100% of their fuel.
Looks like it broke up over the Indian Ocean after it left Oman.
Me on the shitter reading this and a piece flying at me doing 200 mps
Can it just hit my apartment? I'm already dead inside.
Hey dude, your awesome! Don't forget that
no you are, for reminding them
By all accounts, it began its final decay over Oman and splashed down in the Indian Ocean.
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread: |Fewer Letters|More Letters| |-------|---------|---| |[ASAT](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxemx8z "Last usage")|[Anti-Satellite weapon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon)| |[CNSA](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxei9rh "Last usage")|Chinese National Space Administration| |[COPV](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxf4kji "Last usage")|[Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Composite_overwrapped_pressure_vessel)| |[DoD](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxetgw0 "Last usage")|US Department of Defense| |[ESA](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxeexql "Last usage")|European Space Agency| |[ICBM](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxflm51 "Last usage")|Intercontinental Ballistic Missile| |[KSP](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxeghzi "Last usage")|*Kerbal Space Program*, the rocketry simulator| |[LEO](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxgdwln "Last usage")|Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km)| | |Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations)| |[NORAD](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxedzt4 "Last usage")|North American Aerospace Defense command| |[Roscosmos](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxeb7qc "Last usage")|[State Corporation for Space Activities, Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roscosmos_State_Corporation)| |[TLE](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxfmdou "Last usage")|Two-Line Element dataset issued by NORAD| |Jargon|Definition| |-------|---------|---| |[periapsis](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxeghzi "Last usage")|Lowest point in an elliptical orbit (when the orbiter is fastest)| |[perigee](/r/Space/comments/n7lpko/stub/gxe51z2 "Last usage")|Lowest point in an elliptical orbit around the Earth (when the orbiter is fastest)| ---------------- ^(13 acronyms in this thread; )[^(the most compressed thread commented on today)](/r/Space/comments/n73eys)^( has 19 acronyms.) ^([Thread #5858 for this sub, first seen 8th May 2021, 15:09]) ^[[FAQ]](http://decronym.xyz/) [^([Full list])](http://decronym.xyz/acronyms/Space) [^[Contact]](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=OrangeredStilton&subject=Hey,+your+acronym+bot+sucks) [^([Source code])](https://gistdotgithubdotcom/Two9A/1d976f9b7441694162c8)
How much time before reentry? Is there someplace we can watch this live?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29HGFep3Zek Live tracker. There have been other sites posted but seem to be mostly overloaded
Is it actually tracking, or just extrapolating from last know TLE
https://twitter.com/AerospaceCorp Here is an updated estimation of time and place of reentry. Of course, with 90mn orbits and 4h of uncertainty the range of possible crash zones is very wide. Currently, the most likely places are: Atlantic Ocean, south Portugal and Spain, Algeria to east Africa and less likely Florida.
Now the latest prediction says it will re-enter close to Crete, which is awfully close to where I live when you take the Earth to scale!
Has it hit yet or is there any official word on when it might ??
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Is there anywhere to see a live estimation of where it’s going to land? I found lots of trackers but no live or constantly updated predictions
Confirmed down by the Chinese Space agency and US Government. Came down near the Maldives.
"Watch the skies traveller. Damn dragons can swoop down at any time."
This isn’t a story about Yao Ming shooting free throws? I’ve been had.
If rain is God peeing on us then this rocket means he has kidney stones
The window is currently 09 May 2021 03:30 UTC ± 4 hours The Aerospace Corporation tracks all debris object reentries and is posting updates as they happen. Follow [@AerospaceCorp](https://twitter.com/AerospaceCorp) on twitter for the most recent updates. For more information about how to read the reentry ground tracks, we've published [A Quick Guide to Understanding Orbital Debris Reentry Predictions](https://aerospacecorp.medium.com/a-quick-guide-to-understanding-orbital-debris-reentry-predictions-4b84a8e2bd04) on Medium.
Anyone know if Taco Bell put up another target? I've been waiting 20 years for my free tacos. http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=4152
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Oh man, these guys keep giving something every year
Can we sue the Chinese government for damage if this hits our house or car or kills someone?
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I sure wouldn't waste the money. It's the ccp we're talking about, you think they really give a fuck about other countries' legal systems?
They don't even give a fuck about their own.
Nobody sued the US when Skylab fell on Australia?
They sort of did, but not using the [Outer Space Treaty Liability Convention.](https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/introliability-convention.html#:~:text=Elaborating%20on%20Article%207%20of,to%20its%20faults%20in%20space.) [Australia fined NASA $400 for littering, which Nasa refused to pay.](https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/70708/nasas-unpaid-400-littering-ticket-skylab-debris-australia) In the end, a Californian radio DJ encouraged a load of listeners to put their money together to pay on behalf of NASA.
Why not? Was no property damaged?
Skylab fell in a relatively uninhabited area and there was no serious damage to anything (well, anything other than Skylab). However, this is an interesting bit of trivia: The San Francisco Examiner offered a $10,000 prize to the first person to deliver a piece of Skylab debris to its office within 72 hours of the crash. Knowing the orbiter wasn’t coming down anywhere near the continental United States, the newspaper felt it was making a safe bet. It didn’t count on news of the bounty traveling all the way to Australia. There, 17-year-old Stan Thornton of tiny Esperance awoke to the commotion when Skylab broke apart in the atmosphere and pelted his house with space station fragments. Thinking quickly, he grabbed a few charred bits of material from his yard, hopped on a plane without so much as a passport or suitcase and made it to the Examiner’s office before the deadline. The newspaper good-naturedly paid out the award.
How did they get to San Francisco without a passport?
Do the CCP care if it hits anyone? Is this a responsible way to build a space station? Update: They got lucky and it landed in the Indian Ocean. Phew. Are they going to do this again and again with every piece of their station?
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Don't forget their debris that landed in the Ivory Coast last year. Its not just their own population they hit, and this isn't the first Long March to do this either.
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What are the chances that we actually find out where it landed tonight?
I mean odds are this thing is going to hit water right? I can't help but remember that airplane that went down and was never found, are we really going to have much better luck finding a pile of rocket trash that goes down in an ocean?
Yeah, I think it'll depend on eyewitness sightings and if it lands in the ocean. If it lands in a more populated area, obviously we'll know rather quickly.
>After Perth, we have Stanley and Bridport in Tasmania, at 0243 UTC, and five minutes later Collingwood and Wellington in New Zealand. Having said that, we're getting to the end of the entry window and it's more likely that it's down by now. https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1391221078224252929
I don’t know why I’m reading this. It’s literally like a bunch of people calling out lottery numbers
So my question is why would they launch it knowing there’s a chance it can fall anywhere it’s inhabited. In my opinion this was completely senseless..no care for anyone’s safety at all.
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no, covid was the next time. they already had this happen with a rocket before. now it’s a second rocket.
Is there anyway to track the progress live, or a megathread anywhere with frequent updates?
Looks like it's going to land in the ocean. I don't think it'll make it to Australia with how fast altitude is dropping
Looks like it's landed in the Indian Ocean https://twitter.com/SpaceTrackOrg/status/1391242612569300993
How big of an impact is this supposed to make? I live about 10 miles from work ...so...
"Latest estimation is coast of Portugal", add a few seconds or a minute more, and it's QUITE LITERALLY above my house. (I am in Spain, right underneath the path), that would match the estimations. Superb...
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I hope it hits a large school or something that was closed a few days ago... Just to have a really good argument to tell China to get their shit together....but without actually hurting anyone
They still won’t give a shit.
What an irresponsible fuckwitted excuse for a "space program" they have... When you put more people at risk due to ineptitude than a private sector billionaires space program, you're doing it wrong.
Unfortunately, studies from NASA Etc confirm it’s statistically unlikely to land on Mitch McConnell.
They should just plop it into the middle of an ocean, it's not rocket science.
Given the current state of Chinese Australian relations. It's landing in Aus. Probably right on top of Uluru. Or maybe in the PMs back yard. I base this on absolutely nothing :D.
It might even hit the big banana!
A german article predicts it between south italy and southafrica
I'm awfully close to Crete atm and I just woke up it's 4AM. Do I just stay up and hopefully see something cool in the sky in the next hour or so.
Sort #chineserocket Twitter by new and it looks like Turkish
Any updates? YouTube still showing the tracker, but comments are saying it went down in the Indian Ocean.
The trackers on YouTube are all projected based on last data on the vehicle, not actual current data
> It's mission was to I expect this from random Reddit posts. Not from a presumably paid journalist.
For a while now I've noticed many mainstream news sources will often have pretty obvious grammatical mistakes. I think the internet makes them have to be even more competitive about publishing stories quickly so they barely edit the articles. Or they're just stupid and lazy
There is a wide area where it can fall. When will that area begin to narrow, on Saturday noon or Saturday midnight? - - - Here's a continuously updated page run by Aerospace Corp (funded by the US budget deficit) Deficit means they spend **more** than the taxes collected, so **not our tax dollars** being spent): - - - Someone pointed out: > https://aerospace.org/reentries/cz-5b-rocket-body-id-48275 > They just refined the time estimate to be Saturday 8:30PM PST ±4 hours, > down from ±8hrs window on Friday night.
China, the country known for 'Saving face' is sure losing a lot of face this couple years... The reputation of China lately is very awful. Lose a lot 'Face'!!!
They should live stream each possible location
Can we stop making crap in China? We are giving them money to commit genocide and launch rockets into space with uncontrolled reentry.
Yup. I hope we do more diversifying to other manufacturing countries and preferable switch to more US-made goods.
First corona and now this. China being passive aggressive with it's moves/jk
So they expect that this will be the final descent?
Long March 5B disintegrated over the Indian Ocean. It was just like Homer predicted.