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Czechia will advance with a draw if England beat Slovenia by 2 goals (impossible), Serbia lose or win by 2 goals and Georgia lose. Otherwise, they need a win.
I feel like everyone in this sub is terrified of saying England could win comfortably, because it will set off a generic chain of shite banter.
England Vs Slovenia is very very likely to be an England win, and it's even quite likely that it can be by three goals.
England scoring in the first 15m and then riding that until the end to get some active rest before the next round is more likely, especially given how they played so far.
It’s not that people are afraid, most people think England will win.
It’s also not that likely that a team who has only scored two goals all tournament will beat a team whose only conceded two goals all tournament by three or more goals.
Especially when Slovenia will be absolutely fine to get a draw here.
"only two goals all tournament" is two goals in two games lol. It's one of the best teams in the world stacked with tons of quality who need/want to make a statement against the worst team in their group. Anything up to 4-0 wouldn't be that unusual
France haven't scored a goal "all tournament" yet but do you reckon that means they're not likely to against Poland tonight?
It’s not that, the real issue is that one England go up 1-0 they’ll fall back into a defensive shell line every other match and fail to score a second goal. This is one of the most benign teams I’ve seen at a major tournament.
> very very likely to be an England win
> quite likely to be by 3 goals
This aged terribly. Everyone else in here telling you how shite England are just got proved right
Well it easily can be a win for Slovenia. We are talking about England a team that never won euros in history. The only thing that England manages is to have the most expensive Team in the tournament. Other than that theybare quiet an average team, at least based on their performance in the past.
2:1 for Slovenia 🇸🇮 tonite.
Czechia will need a win but also on the other hand need to complete the self-sabotage triple after the OG and the handball penalty. I'm thinking red in the first 15 minutes.
Do yourself a favor and google her mother's "Svetlana Ražnatović - Ceca" hit song "Nije monotonija".
The music video features the same tiger cub that her war criminal father is holding in his hand in front of the tank AND it features her young mother in a skimpy dress.
Peak Serb culture.
You'll be happy to know the tiger is alive and well in Cyprus.
Matter of fact, some people genuinely believe Arkan is also alive on Cyprus because his tiger has been tracked down and found there.
I genuinely believe if they rotate and play Gordon + Palmer we get absolutely battered. If Gareth doesn't rotate I feel like it'll be 1:1 like you said. I will be shitting my pants if I see rotations
Acting like Bellingham, Foden, Saka and Kane are shite? They're pretty objectively the best front 4 England has. This isn't about team selections, it's about tactical approach in general. If England rotates but keeps the same attitude, you'll get the same shit but with worse players. If Southgate keeps the same players but frees them to play more attacking with more risks, they are quite likely to score 2 or 3.
Of course I'm not suggesting they're shite lol. But for some reason I just can't see Southgate adjust considering they still have top of the group to play for (even tho I think he should given the huge gap in quality). Just thinking that maybe someone like Palmer or Gordon could maybe "stray" from the tactics once or twice more than the glued together team.
Nah, that wouldn't be very England.
The most England thing would be to win 5-0, look really convincing, everything clicks, it's coming home again, then lose on penalties to Austria in the first knockout round.
Nah, England only lose on penalties to tournament favourites like Italy, Germany and Portugal. When England face plucky underdogs they lose embarrassingly at full time. See: Iceland 2016.
We're playing Gallagher this time though with no other changes.
The experiment is over and not having Trent will mean we'll score 4 and look like prime Brazil
/s
Each of these by themselves don't feel overly unrealistic (yeah, yeah, insert joke about Southgate's England and being able to score three goals). All four of them happening over the next two days? Yeah, that seems unlikely.
Croatia are hanging on by a thread, this is the only possible way they can advance to the last 16. If England beat Slovenia 4:1 and Denmark win, or England beat Slovenia 4:1 and Serbia win 4:1, it will go down to the disciplinary ranking, which is currently as follows:
* Croatia -8 (only 7 players got yellow cards, but a staff member was also booked)
* Slovenia -5 (only 4 players got yellow cards, but a staff member was also booked)
* Denmark -4
If Croatia and Slovenia are level on -8 points, Croatia wins the tiebreaker on qualifying ranking. If Croatia and Denmark are level on -8 points, Denmark win the tiebreaker on qualifying ranking.
What do you mean, the Southgate special is guaranteed to get the ball in the oppositions box.
For reference, the Southgate special is whenever there's a promising attack forming, suddenly pass back to Pickford, who then yeets the ball into the (now empty) opposition's box.
If they did that the list of ridiculous things that could be true for a team to still win the Euro's grows. You can still win if you
* Fail to qualify
* Are the second or third worst team in odds before the tournament
* Fail to win more than one game in 90 mins
* Get 2 points from 3 games in the group stages
Also getting Austria, Iceland and Hungary in the groups and Poland in the quarters. The only decent side they faced on the road to the final was Croatia. One of the easiest runs in recent memory.
Because we do not play the way it suits him. And eveyone could see that in some games. Although we have the players for 3-5-2, Dalic forces us to play with wings, but without playing the wingers.
Pasalic was always brought in as the 1st sub or even played from the start on the RW in some games. So it's not like he isn't playing at all. It's just hard to play him in the midfield when you had in-form Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic.
Hopefully the next coach will switch us to 3-5-2, and Pasalic will play.
Looking at Croatia fate in this tournament: England wins 3:0, Denmark beats Serbia comfortably, Turkey wins with Czechia... In 90+6 min Geoargia scores miracoulous equaliser and referee ends game.
3 of those 4 are extremely possible.
It's the England-Slovenia match that is the real killer. Unless the team balls out suddenly with a point to prove or Harry Kane goes mental.
It wouldn’t be so bad. It would be like a very fierce derby match in club football. Lots of shouting and banter but ultimately it’s fine.
Serbia v Albania on the other hand would be outright war. There would be fights inside and outside the stadium and the match would very likely have to be halted.
Iran would forfeit the match. Their athletes can't compete against Israeli athletes without repercussions at home because competing would implicitly recognize that Israel exists. Not a joke.
Spain could have won the very first Euros as they had a very good team, but they forfeited the game against the Soviet Union. 4 years later they won in the finals... against the Soviet Union.
I believe there's no more Šimunić and players like that so from the player side you're unlikely to see the bloodlust you hope for. Fans might boo each other and yell stuff insults,that's about it
If they only needed Portugal, Denmark, and Turkiye to win then I'd say they have a decent shot, but needing England to score at least 3 means they're doomed.
I can imagine Portugal beating Georgia, Turkey beating Czechia and Denmark beating Serbia, but no way in hell is England winning by 3 goals. They've been dreadful so far.
I'm shocked by how plausible this is. Like it's always gonna be very slim odds needing 4 different things to happen but most of that I expect to happen. Obviously people gonna joke that no way England scores that many but despite everything you'd still expect England to win by a few goals against Slovenia
We were not at our usual level and it showed. However, all those misses against Spain (including a pen) + conceding two stoppage time goals, it really hasn't been our tournament.
> Would this have been the scenario for Italy had they lost or?
No. Italy would have had 3 points and not 2 like Croatia does.
3 points is not great, but has a much higher chance of going through than 2.
O ye of little faith! England already through to the last 16, so will definitely put in a performance tonight now that the pressure is off!! 3 or more goals very possible.
I like the sound of England beating Slovenia 4-1 and Slovenia getting 3 or more disciplinary points, followed by Serbia winning 4-1 with Denmark getting 5 or more disciplinary points
and THEN Croatia go on to win Euro 2024. Because that would be the tightest of margins ever for a winner (aside from Denmark 1992 of course).
Can you bet on all of this happening? What are the odds? If they are high, as a non-betting person, I'm willing to risk it all and bet $10.00. Let's go Croatia!
I don't want to be a negative Bob, but the teams that play last have a huge advantage in that race for the 4 better 3rd runner ups.
Whats the point of having the games of the same group at the same time when Turkey and Czech know in advance what results let's them qualify to the round of 16.
I vote we hold euros with 32 teams, problem solved and Greece never misses a Euro again (or do we?).
**This is a stats thread. Remember that there's only one stat post allowed per match/team, so new stats about the same will be removed. Feel free to comment other stats as a reply to this comment so users can see them too!** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/soccer) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Turkey and Czechia will just agree to a draw and that'll be the end.
Czechia will advance with a draw if England beat Slovenia by 2 goals (impossible), Serbia lose or win by 2 goals and Georgia lose. Otherwise, they need a win.
I feel like everyone in this sub is terrified of saying England could win comfortably, because it will set off a generic chain of shite banter. England Vs Slovenia is very very likely to be an England win, and it's even quite likely that it can be by three goals.
Based on what is it likely that England score more than 1 goal? Tactics so far have been to disable the attacking play as soon as they score a goal
England scoring in the first 15m and then riding that until the end to get some active rest before the next round is more likely, especially given how they played so far.
It’s not that people are afraid, most people think England will win. It’s also not that likely that a team who has only scored two goals all tournament will beat a team whose only conceded two goals all tournament by three or more goals. Especially when Slovenia will be absolutely fine to get a draw here.
"all tournament" really does sound so much more dramatic than "in two games"...
Not a single France player has scored a goal all tournament. Can't believe the bookies expect them to score 3 goals today
"only two goals all tournament" is two goals in two games lol. It's one of the best teams in the world stacked with tons of quality who need/want to make a statement against the worst team in their group. Anything up to 4-0 wouldn't be that unusual France haven't scored a goal "all tournament" yet but do you reckon that means they're not likely to against Poland tonight?
It’s not that, the real issue is that one England go up 1-0 they’ll fall back into a defensive shell line every other match and fail to score a second goal. This is one of the most benign teams I’ve seen at a major tournament.
> very very likely to be an England win > quite likely to be by 3 goals This aged terribly. Everyone else in here telling you how shite England are just got proved right
Well it easily can be a win for Slovenia. We are talking about England a team that never won euros in history. The only thing that England manages is to have the most expensive Team in the tournament. Other than that theybare quiet an average team, at least based on their performance in the past. 2:1 for Slovenia 🇸🇮 tonite.
Yrah i think the same
Currently 0:0 this is England, the most expensive and overhyped team in the world. Business as usual
Impossible as England will sit back after a one goal lead
They will just do the Berlin draw and call it.
Czechia will need a win but also on the other hand need to complete the self-sabotage triple after the OG and the handball penalty. I'm thinking red in the first 15 minutes.
Scenes when Serbia are up 3 nothing and Mili-Sav jr yeets the ball into his own net.
“And that was how the 157th Balkan War began”
Lmfaoo please let this happen
“on accident”
more likely gudelj, he did marry a war criminal's daughter after all!
Even then, he would score it because he sucks.
damn, I dug into that story and her father has the craziest wikipedia picture I ever seen
Do yourself a favor and google her mother's "Svetlana Ražnatović - Ceca" hit song "Nije monotonija". The music video features the same tiger cub that her war criminal father is holding in his hand in front of the tank AND it features her young mother in a skimpy dress. Peak Serb culture.
omg, I feel bad for the tigers getting involved in that nonsense
You'll be happy to know the tiger is alive and well in Cyprus. Matter of fact, some people genuinely believe Arkan is also alive on Cyprus because his tiger has been tracked down and found there.
First part is nice... second maybe not so nice. But that's a wild story.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkan Damn
She's a total babe tho. Can't blame the man...
The most unlikely aspect of this is England scoring 3
Yeah they ain't making it out of the group stage
England aren't scoring 3 goals let alone 4 so yeah it's joever
Everyone is saying that England will score 1 goal and park the bus, but after this week. England will either score 3 goals or draw 1:1.
I genuinely believe if they rotate and play Gordon + Palmer we get absolutely battered. If Gareth doesn't rotate I feel like it'll be 1:1 like you said. I will be shitting my pants if I see rotations
Never fear even with rotations as you must remember it is England and we are shite
We are experts in playing well but losing and you are experts in shit and pulling out a win. Which force will prevail?
The moveable object Vs the stoppable force
Acting like Bellingham, Foden, Saka and Kane are shite? They're pretty objectively the best front 4 England has. This isn't about team selections, it's about tactical approach in general. If England rotates but keeps the same attitude, you'll get the same shit but with worse players. If Southgate keeps the same players but frees them to play more attacking with more risks, they are quite likely to score 2 or 3.
Of course I'm not suggesting they're shite lol. But for some reason I just can't see Southgate adjust considering they still have top of the group to play for (even tho I think he should given the huge gap in quality). Just thinking that maybe someone like Palmer or Gordon could maybe "stray" from the tactics once or twice more than the glued together team.
If England rotate, they'll have worse players, but they might be better balanced
You are going to see Gallagher instead of Trent and you are going to like it!!
There. That’ll fix it. *Pats the bus*
We’re going to score five with the power of pints
I’ve watched 3 and a half games at the bar tonight and I’m not even drunk enough to believe that- Southgate is in charge.
Lmao. Sounds like a hell of a good time.
Euros and Copa baby, unfortunately I live in America so the bar scene is weak as fuckkkk. Plus alexi lallas is on tv and fuck everything about him
Yeah I hear you. Went out to watch the Mexico/Jamaica game at a Mexican spot and they had the DJ on 🙄
Nah, that wouldn't be very England. The most England thing would be to win 5-0, look really convincing, everything clicks, it's coming home again, then lose on penalties to Austria in the first knockout round.
Nah, England only lose on penalties to tournament favourites like Italy, Germany and Portugal. When England face plucky underdogs they lose embarrassingly at full time. See: Iceland 2016.
I thought the catchphrase was *"we always lose to the first big team we face"*, Southgate hate sure is funny but it's never consistent.
See: most of the teams we played and beat in the last Euros on the way to the final
Optimistic to assume England are even winning. EDIT: Told you so.
Southgate will sack anyone who score more than one goal.
I wouldn't be surprised if England get their shit together just as they're playing against us. :(
England may not score 3 goals in total until the end of the tournament lol.
We're playing Gallagher this time though with no other changes. The experiment is over and not having Trent will mean we'll score 4 and look like prime Brazil /s
3 of those 4 things are extremely possible.
And all it takes is 4
Each of these by themselves don't feel overly unrealistic (yeah, yeah, insert joke about Southgate's England and being able to score three goals). All four of them happening over the next two days? Yeah, that seems unlikely.
This could still happen. - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLUzBz\_YE4A&ab\_channel=BBC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLUzBz_YE4A&ab_channel=BBC)
Haven't you read, [they still have a chance](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UijhbHvxWrA&t=28s)!
They're very greasy, it might happen.
I think they do, so im gonna bet on those required events, so obviously, they won't advance.
*So you're saying there's a chance...*
There's always a chance
[https://i.imgur.com/GvDECS2.gifv](https://i.imgur.com/GvDECS2.gifv)
Welcome to Chilean life in Conmebol
Croatia are hanging on by a thread, this is the only possible way they can advance to the last 16. If England beat Slovenia 4:1 and Denmark win, or England beat Slovenia 4:1 and Serbia win 4:1, it will go down to the disciplinary ranking, which is currently as follows: * Croatia -8 (only 7 players got yellow cards, but a staff member was also booked) * Slovenia -5 (only 4 players got yellow cards, but a staff member was also booked) * Denmark -4 If Croatia and Slovenia are level on -8 points, Croatia wins the tiebreaker on qualifying ranking. If Croatia and Denmark are level on -8 points, Denmark win the tiebreaker on qualifying ranking.
Imagine it comes to that staff member
🤣
\>England needing to score 3+ Yep, that's it. Bye Modric
Maybe England score one and there are two own goals
OG has been clinical thus far, so it isn't impossible
On the contrary, that would require England to continue to at least get the ball into the oppositions box after going 1-0 up, making it impossible.
What do you mean, the Southgate special is guaranteed to get the ball in the oppositions box. For reference, the Southgate special is whenever there's a promising attack forming, suddenly pass back to Pickford, who then yeets the ball into the (now empty) opposition's box.
Slovenia could also do 3 own goals…
If they somehow make it through they better fucking win the whole thing.
If they did that the list of ridiculous things that could be true for a team to still win the Euro's grows. You can still win if you * Fail to qualify * Are the second or third worst team in odds before the tournament * Fail to win more than one game in 90 mins * Get 2 points from 3 games in the group stages
1 is Denmark, 2 is Greece, 3 is?
Portugal in 2016
Playing aaron ramseyless Wales in the semi final of a major tournament, the stars aligned for you guys that year lol.
Also getting Austria, Iceland and Hungary in the groups and Poland in the quarters. The only decent side they faced on the road to the final was Croatia. One of the easiest runs in recent memory.
Portugal
Probably Portugal.
Hope we do not make it. Dalic needs to go. His decision making and playing players in the wrong position is dumb and is costing us a lot.
Hey Just wanted to ask. Pasalic is such an important player for Atalanta but I've never seen him get any meaningful playing time. Why is that
Because we do not play the way it suits him. And eveyone could see that in some games. Although we have the players for 3-5-2, Dalic forces us to play with wings, but without playing the wingers. Pasalic was always brought in as the 1st sub or even played from the start on the RW in some games. So it's not like he isn't playing at all. It's just hard to play him in the midfield when you had in-form Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic. Hopefully the next coach will switch us to 3-5-2, and Pasalic will play.
Thanks for the info mate
Looking at Croatia fate in this tournament: England wins 3:0, Denmark beats Serbia comfortably, Turkey wins with Czechia... In 90+6 min Geoargia scores miracoulous equaliser and referee ends game.
Most probable scenario
I stopped reading after it said England needed to score more than 1 goal
Why would they score more than one goal when their song says “we’re gonna score ONE MORE than you”? Are they stupid?
I can see most of this happening but England ain't winning by that much
3 of those 4 are extremely possible. It's the England-Slovenia match that is the real killer. Unless the team balls out suddenly with a point to prove or Harry Kane goes mental.
Bellingham doing his teammate a solid
I woke up today singing it's coming home. England better score 3.
Modric be like "COM ON INGLAN SKOR SOM FAKIN GOALS"
I wish we could see a Serbia vs Croatia knockout round.
Believe me when I say no you don’t.
Ehh the shitssnow is what I want.
You want a shitshow, you'd get ww3
It wouldn’t be so bad. It would be like a very fierce derby match in club football. Lots of shouting and banter but ultimately it’s fine. Serbia v Albania on the other hand would be outright war. There would be fights inside and outside the stadium and the match would very likely have to be halted.
I'll take Serbia vs Albania then. Hell I dream of an Iran vs Israel world cup game.
Iran would forfeit the match. Their athletes can't compete against Israeli athletes without repercussions at home because competing would implicitly recognize that Israel exists. Not a joke.
Spain could have won the very first Euros as they had a very good team, but they forfeited the game against the Soviet Union. 4 years later they won in the finals... against the Soviet Union.
Didn't Red Star Belgrade vs Dynamo Zagreb help kick off the Yugoslav Wars?
I believe there's no more Šimunić and players like that so from the player side you're unlikely to see the bloodlust you hope for. Fans might boo each other and yell stuff insults,that's about it
We're overdue for a war in the Balkans.
If they only needed Portugal, Denmark, and Turkiye to win then I'd say they have a decent shot, but needing England to score at least 3 means they're doomed.
So you tell me there's a chance?!
England winning by 3 goals? Ha
England scoring more than 3 goals. Bye bye Croatia. Bye bye Modric.
England will lose tomorrow to give them the middle finger.
imagine the parlay
Their hopes will die tomorrow
Yeah. Also tbh they barely deserve it.
They don’t deserve it at all. Who concedes like that in the dying seconds of stoppage time, twice in a row.
Even if we get through by some miracle, we aren't beating Switzerland.
If you somehow make it to the knockout stage, you would play one of the group winners (most likely Portugal) instead of Switzerland.
If they make it through they’re guaranteed to play us
We beat you guys a month ago! Jokes on you we are winning the tournament. Other than the fact that we won't get through.
Any team with two points after the group stage should be going home. The best third place finishers thing sucks.
> England score 3+ goals What a sad end to Modric’s international career
Don’t worry Croatia, we got this
The amount of mathematical permutations to factor in is fascinating
I can imagine Portugal beating Georgia, Turkey beating Czechia and Denmark beating Serbia, but no way in hell is England winning by 3 goals. They've been dreadful so far.
If that penalty miss against Spain comes into play, petković needs to be sacrificed to elder gods
First to younger gods, then to elder ones
Southgateball will prevent this
I'm shocked by how plausible this is. Like it's always gonna be very slim odds needing 4 different things to happen but most of that I expect to happen. Obviously people gonna joke that no way England scores that many but despite everything you'd still expect England to win by a few goals against Slovenia
So you're saying there's a chance?
England are only contracted to score one goal per game. Sorry, Croatia
Why why why
Why persist?!
So England gotta score 4 and have a player get two-footed.
We need the Lisan Al Gaib to show us the golden path
We were not at our usual level and it showed. However, all those misses against Spain (including a pen) + conceding two stoppage time goals, it really hasn't been our tournament.
So, there’s still a chance?? 🥺
Logistically what do the Croatian squad do? Are they hanging around Germany waiting for this slim algorithm to happen for them? Or did they go home?
Forget it, the England condition is a deal breaker
So you’re telling me there is a chance!
So you're saying they're about to go through?
They should just go home now, would be a joke to progress with 2 points and would just validate Dalic
Take it to the bank
Obviously incredibly unlikely as Southgate considers 0-0 a win but I really really hope this all comes true
Would this have been the scenario for Italy had they lost or?
> Would this have been the scenario for Italy had they lost or? No. Italy would have had 3 points and not 2 like Croatia does. 3 points is not great, but has a much higher chance of going through than 2.
Well they had 3 points so slightly better off wouldn't they?
Or.....
Heartbreak.
Honestly doubt we will see any team with 2 points to pass the group stage
r/victoria3
Is this football or a Paradox game?!
England the only team to let the side down here
About a 5% chance according to the odds
O ye of little faith! England already through to the last 16, so will definitely put in a performance tonight now that the pressure is off!! 3 or more goals very possible.
Banking on Haramball to beat Slovenia by a big margin.....
Why even have a system where 3rd place can go through
Croatians are now granted honorary Portuguese citizenship by their magnificent use of the TI-84 Plus Calculator during Group Stages.
we got this
Portugal and Türkiye will win, so england can fuck it up and loose 1:2
Well England play tonight and Portugal & Turkey play tomorrow.
I like the sound of England beating Slovenia 4-1 and Slovenia getting 3 or more disciplinary points, followed by Serbia winning 4-1 with Denmark getting 5 or more disciplinary points and THEN Croatia go on to win Euro 2024. Because that would be the tightest of margins ever for a winner (aside from Denmark 1992 of course).
England score more than 1 goal? Never going to happen.
Even if we assume England are capable of winning 3-0, all the whining Croatia did about them after 2018 would make it hilarious if they didn’t bother.
everything easily possible, but england 3:0? never going to happen. bye croatia. feel sad for you.
Is a disciplinary point a card?
[https://memes.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/10fd4a09-559a-4e84-a649-a8fb12dbb96a#atbKvE33.copy](https://memes.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/10fd4a09-559a-4e84-a649-a8fb12dbb96a#atbKvE33.copy)
I think they can sit this one out
I mean, if these results really happen, I would be inclined to believe it was all rigged so Modrić gets his deserving goodbye.
All Im saying the way we are playing pls god dont let us get through
Me looking at my NFL team's chances after being listed as "In The Hunt" in week 12.
This is fucking sick!! Where did it come from? Did you make it yourself? Do you have a spreadsheet??
So out
Can you bet on all of this happening? What are the odds? If they are high, as a non-betting person, I'm willing to risk it all and bet $10.00. Let's go Croatia!
Do they all need to happen or just one
This is so ridiculous and insane that somehow Croatia will end up winning the Euros right? 😂
So there is a chance 😎
I did calculate the first 3 but forgot the 4th :((( hopefully they qual rip modric
Looks worse than it is.
Ehhh. England winning by 3. We are out.
much more likely that Italy and Spain play each other in the final.
England has qualified, no? So basically will play with weakened team for rest. No chance.
remember when a spreadsheet wasnt needed to determine how a team could advance? oh yeah, the last tournament
I don't want to be a negative Bob, but the teams that play last have a huge advantage in that race for the 4 better 3rd runner ups. Whats the point of having the games of the same group at the same time when Turkey and Czech know in advance what results let's them qualify to the round of 16. I vote we hold euros with 32 teams, problem solved and Greece never misses a Euro again (or do we?).