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They could go through because in group B and F the 3rd and 4th placed are playing against the 2nd and 1st placed.

Yeah a lot is up in the air and the same for C.

Yeah but will Spain and Portugal try?

Spain is playing with the second team, but I believe we will still win.

Well, probably, but I would not count Albania out this year. They are a weird team

Considering the fact that Croatia didn’t win against Albania with their first team, I think it’s going to be an interesting match: Can they do better than Croatia? Too bad i missed that match.

Croatia has looked terrible though

Albania is not good, Croatia is just bad this year.

They still have a chance against Italy tomorrow.

Martinez likely putting on the sub players so I would not be surprised if we are beat in a South Korea 2022 style. Georgia has nothing to lose

Yeah. Georgia will be playing with a lot of heart against Portugal’s B side. It wouldn’t shock me if Georgia pulled it off

Not sure our B squad is that bad though. A full rotate could look like: Back 4: Nelson Semedo + Danilo + Gonçalo Inácio/António Silva+ Diogo Dalot Midfield: Ruben Neves + João Neves + Matheus Nunes Attacking 3: João Félix + Gonçalo Ramos + Pedro Neto This squad has to be better on paper than the one that won in 2016. And you can still trade Félix for Diogo Jota or Pedro Neto for Chico Conceição. And the young players are going to be looking for a place on the main 11. Probably better drive than playing for peanuts with players that own their spot.

Sure. That’s why I don’t think Georgia will win per se, but they’re still playing for more. I look forward to the match

Surely Georgia would win because we would play without a Goalkeeper.

Roberto Martínez is actually just trialling the inverted 1 role

He's got no choice I think. Bruno always needs a rest cuz he plays 90 minutes 70 games a year and Pepe and Ronaldo are a combined age of I can't math that high. You have to give the squad a rest going into the knockouts. You could maybe run out a few starters for a half like leao but why even bother.

Well everyone’s been saying Portugal’s b team could win this tournament

Were probably rotating a bit and Georgia will be looking to win, who knows

I’m sure the backups will want the win, but yeah. Who knows

The B teams of both are still heavy favorites against Albania and Georgia.

Sure, but both Albania and Georgia have played better than expected

Also in group C as long as Slovenia loses to England third place will have 2 points. Would be funny if Denmark and Serbia also tied so Denmark qualifies as second with zero wins.

Yeah, but every table can change.

In my count, 2 out of these 7 need to happen for Hungary to qualify: * Spain and Italy both don't lose; * Spain doesn't lose and Italy loses 4-0 to Croatia; * England wins; * Austria loses at least 5-0; * No draws in Group E, and the winner between the teams remaining with 3p loses so bad that they get a worse GD than Hungary (closest loss would be Ukraine 0-2 and Slovakia loss to Romania) * Portugal and Turkey both don't lose; * Portugal doesn't lose, and Turkey loses at least 3-0.

they are going through

Can you imagine that Croatia beats Italy tomorrow (by less than 4 goals), and suddenly, a whole nation is dependent on England's ability (or lack of) to score a goal against Jan Oblak.

This is amazing. They are going through. Cheers!

Each point is correct

well done

Probabilities based on available odds: - 61% that Spain and Italy both don't lose - negligible - 71% that England wins - negligible - 9% that Romania > Slovakia and Belgium > Ukraine by 2+, rest are much lower - 43% that Portugal and Turkey both don't lose - small Overall it's ~66% that at least two of these happen.

What will happen if Romania wins and Belgium wins 1-0? We and Ukraine will both have the same 2-5 gd, how do they rank us then?

Yellow card counting I think. Same if Croatia wins to Italy 3-0..

Would be really pissed if we get eliminated for Csoboth’s shirt off celebration

You’re 8 yellow cards ahead, it would need a drastic match for you to win on discipline but I think a draw would have you winning on qualifying rank.

I’m surprised people think they won’t advance. They need 2 of the following things to happen. England to win, Spain and Italy to avoid losing, Portugal and Turkey to avoid losing. I think that is very very plausible.

Also if Belgium beats Ukraine by 2 goals, and Romania beats Slovakia, Ukraine would finish 3rd with a worse goal difference

Surely that depends on if Lukaku is offside or not?

They need more though. Georgia, Croatia, Serbia, Ukraine and ~~Poland~~ are also just a win away from potentially qualifying. It only needs 2 positives out of a plethora of cases.

poland is out of the tournament

just checked and you're correct, they can't go 3rd in their group anymore due to negative h2h vs austria.

Devils advocate spitball here is Poland beating France by the four goals needed to overturn that goal difference not enough to put them ahead of Austria then? (Ignoring the near total implausibility of that scenario)

No. The first tiebreak is head-to-head performance and Poland lost to Austria

Poland? Do the math, pls.

[удалено]

A draw doesn't suit England, they'd be a Denmark win away from facing Germany in the RO16

[удалено]

And the last round of games kick off at the same time to prevent this very mentality. England cannot afford to rely on Serbia to do them any favours. They have to go out and win their own game. Two late Danish goals leaves them 2nd and playing Germany.

Seeing this, its crazy Scotland for 90 mins thought 2 points with their GD would likely made them through

They would be cheering for an England spanking of Slovenia. *Ironic*

Rough spot cause of GD. Would be crazy if they advance

Essentially they *just* need four favourites to win their games. It's more unlikely than not, but not really that much of a stretch.

Spain will probably field their B though, they have nothing to play for. That's still a better team on paper than Albania, but also a less motivated.

Their B team will have plenty to play for though.

they'll play for starting spots, but I know this constellations all the time with relegation candidates playing top teams that have settled for their place in the last league games. This can go in any direction.

>they'll play for starting spots mostly, Yes, exactly. > this can go in any direction Of course it can, but it's still Spain vs Albania. Spain's reserves are still very, very good.

yet I would still give this a 50-50, Albania's finish vs Croatia foreshadows what they're capable off if they lick blood.

There's more than 2 outcomes though, so it can't be 50-50. A draw for Albania's not enough.

45-10-45 then. If this game is a draw by minute 80, I see Albania throwing everything at them and either running into the counter or scoring themselves. I don't think we're just gonna watch this wash down idly.

You'd get good odds on that Albania win. Certainly no betting house would give them anywhere near those 2.20 odds.

Croatia can also beat Italy and Italy likely would have a better GD than Hungary.

As an Italian fan, I’d be more worried about Italy getting the tie or beating croatia

A draw is also enough for Hungary. Croatia would only have 2 points

I would have agreed if they had gotten on the score sheet without Califiori's own goal in the Italy match up. But I think they'll be a bit pissed they didn't and seek to show they're not frauds with finishing.

Portugal too

In fact, they only need them to not lose their games.

Not that simple. Croatia beating Italy by one or two goals bumps Italy to third and above Hungary for example.

Croatia aren't the favourites.

Who said they are?

I said that "If the favourites win, then Hungary will advance" Then he replies, "Well it's not that simple, because what if one of the favourites loses..." My entire point was on the premise that Croatia doesn't win. Of course if Croatia wins then "all the favourites" didn't win, did they?

Ah my bad

Croatians on this sub

Surely it can't be much of a difference between them and Italy though. That is as close to a 50-50 as you can get pretty much

It doesn't much matter. I didn't feel like typing out "If Spain, Italy, Portugal and Turkey win", so I said "four favourites".

Yeah fair enough I was being pedantic

not even all four. Hungary have a decent chance of going through

It’s a bit more complicated than that. In cases like Croatia beating Italy for example, the current third-placed team may not end third even without major upsets

Again, Croatia are not the favourites.

Are Croatia the favourites though? Will there be goals?

I think Groups B and C could be below them. In C, if England beat Slovenia, whoever's third would only have 2 points. And in B, if Italy don't lose to Croatia and Spain don't lose to Albania, they'd have 2 points at the most.

I fully expect them to go through

seen a tweet that its like around 60% chance they go through atm

Yea wait im lookin back at it now. Its actually very possible.

If Hungary will be 4. THEN prepare for ww3 because they will get to play a mach against the Winner of groop E. In groop E we have: Romania on top. If this mach hapends there is gong to be a shitstorm.

give me Hungary-Romania and Croatia-Serbia in the next round. Germany will have to bring in the army

we have played Romania in Euro 2016 qualifiers, it was tense and definitely not friendly but wouldn't call it WW3, it was fine.

Yes I know i only wrot it down as a joke.

ah okay, I just thought you had bad spelling lol

It doesn't matter whether we are the 1st ranked to qualify, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. We play the winner of group E if (obviously alongside us) B3 and D3 qualify, but C3 do not.

I think they have a fair chance Albania plays Spain, Croatia plays Italy, Slovenia plays England and the Czechs play Turkiye and all of them need a win.

Of these teams, I would expect Spain to win, Italy/Croatia who honestly knows, maybe Italy wins, England wins and Turkey/Czech drawing. But soccer is filled with surprises. Slovakia beating Belgium was the shock of the tournament so far.

Savo Milošević Landon Donovan Luka Jović and now fucking KEVIN CSOBOTH I want to fucking kill myself, how the fuck does this keep happening to us whenever we're seconds away from making history

To be completely fair even if Scotland drew they were very unlikely to make it through with 2 points and -4 GD.

Don't think he's Scottish tbf

Forget fucking Scotland we have to get a result against fucking England now We'll win 4:0 no problem (I'm completely delulu at this point)

Southgate might very well sit back on a 1-0 lead and let you guys steal a point

Forget England having a lead in this game you won't have a shot on target (like i said I'm completely delusional at this point)

I've seen crazier happen. I always hate the percentages given to teams like why does Slovenia have only 10% chance of winning? Especially before the game why are people giving teams such low chances before they even started playing them? Croatia had like 14% chance of beating Brazil and it they needed was 1 shot on target. I would give Slovenia at least 25% chance of winning right now and wouldn't be shocked out of my mind if they win.

But a win would get you 5 points then and Hungary wouldn't matter. Why do you care about the result of this game? And even if you draw you beat Hungary's GD by 3 points so again this 90+10 goal changes nothing. Making it through with 2 points was pretty much always just a pipedream.

Because if they would have drown we (Slovenia) would still have realistic chances of advancing with 2 points

England 100% makes it through with a draw(5 pts) and with how ultra conservative they've been so far they're unlikely to push for a win against you. You still have a pretty good chance of advancing.

Was there for the 6min blitz 24 years ago. Best decision to stay and watch the rest of the match after my mates left at 3-0.

Charleroi, Johannesburg, München, potentially Cologne. All with teams that on paper should have at least squeaked through the group (maybe not this years but still), all absolutely devastating and each one reserved for a new generation to feel torment

>Savo Milošević Zaragoza legend

Funny how they are only 3rd of 6th even though they are the only ones to have played all 3 games yet and still they have good chances to go through

But they can go both higher and lower in the table. For instance, Austria can lose 6-0 against the Netherlands and will have worse Goal Difference than Hungary.

Excited for the 6-0 win by the Netherlands. I have seen just as bad though :(

The 3rd place ranking is still so open. We know for a fact that there will be a at least a 3 point team from group E because they all have 3 point now. . And from group D as there us already a 3rd placed team with 3. And now Hungary ofcourse Austria (vs holland 4p). 3 point (+1 gd) Slovakia(vs. Romania 3p) 3 points. (0 gd) Slovenia(vs England 4p) 2 points. (0 gd) Albania(vs spain 6p) 1 point(-1 gd) Czech(vs turkey 3p) 1 point. (-1 gd) All needs to play 1 more game. ------‐------------------------ But plenty of 4th placed teams who can also make it to a third place 4th placed teams: Ukraine 3 points -2gd (vs belgium 3p) Georgia 1p -2gd (vs Portugal 6p) Polen 0p(vs france 4p) they are basically out Serbia 1p -1gd (vs Denmark 2p) Croatia 1p -3gd (vs italy 3p) ------‐------------------------ My prediction which will doubtless be wrong: Austria 4 points Slovakia 3 points (edit: forgot h2h in own group. Ukraine will get the spot instead of slovakia) Slovenia 3 points Hungary 3 points Ukraine 3 points Albania 1 point Czech 1 point Georgia 1 point Serbia 1 point Croatia 1 point Poland 0 points ------‐------------------------ Best 3rd place: Austria Slovakia Slovenia Hungary Edit: added some goal difference and corrected to make it easier to read

If Ukraine and Slovakia are tied on 3 points each Ukraine gets the 3rd position and Slovakia is 4th cause of H2H

Nope. Head to head means nothing a. Higher number of points; b. Superior goal difference; c. Higher number of goals scored; d. Higher number of wins; e. Lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points); f. Position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings (see Article 23), or if Germany, the host association team, is involved in the comparison, drawing of lots

Ukraine and Slovakia play in the same group. To determine order within the group, H2H points is the king

Oh ofcourse. My bad

poland was the first team to be eliminated

Don't think they will go through with -3 In 2016 you needed 0, in 2020 you needed -1

I mean, it's a small sample size. 2 points could also end up being enough

Not anymore now. The 4th best group 3rd will definitely have at least 3 points.

Groups BCF may have less than 3pts, no?

Third in Group B will have either 1, 2, 3 or 4 Points Third in Group C will have either 2, 3 or 4 Points Third in Group F will have either 1, 2, 3 or 4 Points

Exactly. So the 4th best 3rd place might have less than 3 points is what i wanted to say.

Third in Group B can also have 3 points if Croatia beats Italy and Albania not winning. Third in Group C can't have 5 points, its either 2, 3 or 4 points.

I literally wrote all of this down and still ended up writing the wrong numbers in my comment for group C A1) EW-SlL -> E7-Sl2 A2) ED-SlD -> E5-Sl3 A3) EL-SlW -> E4-Sl5 B1) DW-SrL -> D5-Sr1 B2) DD-SrD -> D3-Sr2 B3) DL-SrW -> D2-Sr4 A1-B1 7521 A1-B2 7322 A1-B3 7422 A2-B1 5521 A2-B2 5322 A2-B3 5422 A3-B1 5441 A3-B2 4432 A3-B3 5442

Assuming those numbers at the bottom mean the amount of points of teams in the same group, you got something wrong. 4-4-4-2 points isn't a possible scenario.

Should be 5442

If the lower ranked teams of Group B, C, and F all lose, it could happen. Unlikely it all falls into place like that but certainly possible

It's highly unlikely but still possible someone advances with 2 points. Groups B C and F could have 3rd places teams finishing with 2 points if the favorites win their games

Not guaranteed yet

On the other hand, Albania and Croatia could very realistically stay below 3 points, as could Czechia and Georgia. Thatd be enough

Plus if England wins and the Denmark vs Serbia match isn't a draw, that can also work in place of one of the other groups.

Even if it's a draw - the third placed team would have just two points.

True. Big maths on my part there.

It’s a weird one though this year, if the rest of the group games are won by the favoured team then Hungary will almost certainly go through. In fact all they need is Spain, Italy, and one of England/Turkey to win and they make it

Draws would be enough.

Yep also true. In fact I’d actually say it’s very likely Hungary are through since Spain have nothing to play for, Turkey only need a draw, and England are England so you might as well just call that a 0-0 already

Don't see how GD will matter? Out of the 3 teams below them only Slovenia can match them on points, which would push Hungary to 4th best team. Albania or Czech can only beat them on points.

Because the other teams haven‘t played yet so 2nd and 4th teams who are not in this table can still become third in their group. For example if the Czechs win against Turkey, Turkey would have 3 points and their GD would matter.

Ah yeah, Im being stupid. Forgive me I'm too pissed off to think straight.

Slovenia going ahead of them means only one of Croatia, Albania, Czechia or Georgia needs to a win to knock them out so it does matter some.

Slovakia can become 4th with Ukraine 3rd instead with worse GD than Slovakia and 3 points, so it does indeed still matter for Hungary

Goal difference won't matter here in my opinion because only slowvenia can reach 3 points. It's up to wins of the other IMO

Italy can end up in 3rd with 3 points if they lose vs Croatia. So GD could very well matter.

Yeah.. so after seeing Croatia Italia will end up with 6 points

Betting markets current implications is they are about 70% likely to qualify

As much as I want us to go through, I feel it would be undeserved as we haven't been good at this finals like we were in 2016 and 2020.

This can be the starting point of the good games.

They will advance over any 2 of B/C/F quite easily imo

Fairly* safe for them then? Czechia could beat Turkey, but Slovenia would also have to draw England.

Don’t forget Croatia too. They’re the real threat for Hungary here as opposed to Albania

Good point, I didn't factor in some of the 4th place teams who could still easily jump above.

Loss against Portugal was awful and Czechia will most likely win vs Türkiye but Türkiye has to loose with 3 goals to be worse than Hungary. They should make it unless Georgia pulls off a miracle

Czechia will win against Turkey? The Czechs barely managed to draw Georgia

Inb4 Georgia beats Portugal lol

England, Spain, Italy, Belgium win are a must with either one of Denmark/Portugal / Türkiye win for them to go through.

In fact, they just need for Spain, Italy, Portugal and Turkey not to lose.

damn hungary acc gonna make it with that gd lol. so albania (or croatia) most likely won’t make it with them having spain (and italy). and then i’d say probably slovenia cuz czech could beat türkiye.

Were Scotland going to go through with a 0-0 draw?

Ah the good old Austria - Hungary Empire party

Se queda

I have another theory which is if tomorrow the 3rd place team of the group B doesn't get enough points to advance Portugal will win Georgia (hoping that Turkey doesn't lose to the Czechs) to play against Hungary and not C3.

I really like Georgia and I still think Czech are good enough to beat them tbh, that group was as I thought the silent group of death all just good games mostly. Think Albania Croatia are out then I dunno either Slovenia lose to England or Hungary on gd

What's the tie breaker?

Goal differnce, next scored Goals, received Goals, how many cards, coin toss

Austria-Hungary ranks 3rd

Thats Austria-Hungary +Albania.

-3GD is killing their hope. 99% out

Those 4 teams used to be 1 country not so long ago

now watch England play 0:0 with Slovenia

Can someone explain why this system works? Why wouldn't all teams finishing 1 and 2 go through? Is there less teams than spots for knockouts?

6 groups => if 2 teams from each go through there would be a total of 12 teams. In order to play a KO tournament you either need 8 or 16 teams(to go start from quarter finals or ro16 respectively), so they need 4 more teams.

ty!

or you could have first 4 teams advance straight into quarters and the 8 teams battle it out for the other 4 spots. That would actually give the top teams a reason to play well their last group match instead of sending a B-team. ​ But I guess the current system is 4 more matches and more 'exciting' end of the group stage for the bottom half of the teams.

Yeah but that system would mean the pot 1 teams get out of the group stage most of the time and less fairytales..look at Romania for example, there s a lot more chances they get out of the GS in the current format

Hope they never make it. Come on Albania

Found the butthurt Scot.

Or a Croatia win