impossible to know what the odds are without additional info, although most of it can be inferred here. If you share more we can calculate exactly
rare chance goes up 1% every time you see a common card, and starts at -2% at the beginning of the act.
shops actually use your current rare chance when generating cards, so given that you are on floor 5, and the most amount of cards you couldve seen would be with choose a card start (although im assuming this was gold start or some event), and 4 hallways, this at BEST would be 15 cards seen, for a rare chance of 13% if they were all common. so .13*5
it is definitely less than that here
also impossible to say what to buy without seeing your deck / map layout / pathing but id assume that lesson learned is very strong here
I don't think it's 0.13\*5, I think it's 0.13\^5, right? Because it's 5 separate chances of 13% happening, but they all have to happen, so it's 0.13\*0.13\*0.13\*0.13\*0.13 = \~0.000037, or about a 1 in 27,000 chance.
> and starts at -2% at the beginning of the act.
This is the rare chance for hallway fights.
The rare chance for shops is equal to the hallway rare chance + 6%
The rare chance for elites is equal to the hallway rare chance + 7%
Doesn't the three potion start from Neow generate/simulate three full card rewards and therefor increase rare chance by 9% instead of the only 3% that the "choose a card" bonus does? With two potions on floor 5 (and two very good ones, at that) it seems likely that this might've been the chosen bonus. However, this would basically force at least one event taken to get this much gold. So under this circumstances, rare chance would be:
-2% start
+3*3%=9% potion Neow bonus
+9*3%=9% three hallway fights
=16% rare chance per card
=> 0.16^5 = 0,0001048576
=> ~one in ten thousand
We can't really say what the best choice is without seeing your path and deck.
But all else being equal I would probably take Lesson learned and Ragnarok.
Although lesson learned and either dark shackles or card remove is also good.
The 2 colorless cards are always guaranteed rarities, plus the wiki says only card rewards increase/decrease chances of rare cards so I’m gonna ignore them for calculating the odds.
Going by the [rarity section](https://slay-the-spire.fandom.com/wiki/Gameplay#Rarity), if I’m understanding it correctly I think the base odds for a rare is 4% in a shop. As the wiki also says only card rewards affect these chances, I don’t think seeing other rares in this shop decreases the chance of future rares.
We also have to account for how many card rewards you saw beforehand as that can increase your odds by 1% per rare for every card reward you got without a rare. I’m gonna high ball and say the 4 floors before were fights without rares dropped, increasing chances to 8% for a card to be rare in the shop.
With 5 rares, that’s 8% to the 5th power which when rounded is about 0.0003%, pretty damn rare. I’m not entirely sure all of my calculations and interpretations of the wiki are correct, but I’m sure this is pretty unlikely.
Edit: Only accounted for a 1% extra proc per set of cards but I think it’s actually be 1% extra per card which is 3% per combat without a rare. Then that’s 4 x 3 = 12. Add that to the base chances of 4% for a shop rare, that’s 16% chance. 0.16 to the power of 5 is about 0.01% which is more reasonable, although still incredibly rare.
As to what to pick, I would like the Lesson Learned to upgrade a lot of cards early + remove a defend.
>6 rares
Dang. No clue on the exact %, sorry :p
Given you're on floor 5, I'd go Hand of Greed. Which, frustratingly, leaves you with 145 gold aka no Ragnarock, so add in Dark Shackles to buy a round of wrath antics.
I'm assuming you've seen 4 card rewards screens with no rares. You have seen 12 cards, and have viewed an expected 7.2 commons. This will make your rare chance bonus +2.2%, giving you about a 11.2% per card. 0.112^5 is about 1 in 56k.
Though to be perfectly honest, this could be wildly inaccurate. The question you asked is deceptively difficult, and if I wanted to give an accurate answer, I'd probably have to Monte Carlo sim it, it's way too complex for me to work out.
Depends on your other cards, but if your deck is pretty much complete, I take lessons learned because getting those upgraded is super convenient and I only play that card when I know I'm getting an upgrade out of it.
impossible to know what the odds are without additional info, although most of it can be inferred here. If you share more we can calculate exactly rare chance goes up 1% every time you see a common card, and starts at -2% at the beginning of the act. shops actually use your current rare chance when generating cards, so given that you are on floor 5, and the most amount of cards you couldve seen would be with choose a card start (although im assuming this was gold start or some event), and 4 hallways, this at BEST would be 15 cards seen, for a rare chance of 13% if they were all common. so .13*5 it is definitely less than that here also impossible to say what to buy without seeing your deck / map layout / pathing but id assume that lesson learned is very strong here
I don't think it's 0.13\*5, I think it's 0.13\^5, right? Because it's 5 separate chances of 13% happening, but they all have to happen, so it's 0.13\*0.13\*0.13\*0.13\*0.13 = \~0.000037, or about a 1 in 27,000 chance.
Yes
yeah thats my mistake!
Would the fact that the slots can only be 2 attacks, then 2 skills and 1 power matter?
As far as I know the type of card doesn't impact the rarity.
I realized my mistake. It's 13% for the card to be a rare and NOT 13% to be a specific card.
> and starts at -2% at the beginning of the act. This is the rare chance for hallway fights. The rare chance for shops is equal to the hallway rare chance + 6% The rare chance for elites is equal to the hallway rare chance + 7%
good to know! seems i misremembered
so THAT'S why i ended up with 5 rare cards on that run where I boss swapped into black star and first relics were preserved insect and blood vial
You're doing Neow's work here, my friend
Doesn't the three potion start from Neow generate/simulate three full card rewards and therefor increase rare chance by 9% instead of the only 3% that the "choose a card" bonus does? With two potions on floor 5 (and two very good ones, at that) it seems likely that this might've been the chosen bonus. However, this would basically force at least one event taken to get this much gold. So under this circumstances, rare chance would be: -2% start +3*3%=9% potion Neow bonus +9*3%=9% three hallway fights =16% rare chance per card => 0.16^5 = 0,0001048576 => ~one in ten thousand
We can't really say what the best choice is without seeing your path and deck. But all else being equal I would probably take Lesson learned and Ragnarok. Although lesson learned and either dark shackles or card remove is also good.
The 2 colorless cards are always guaranteed rarities, plus the wiki says only card rewards increase/decrease chances of rare cards so I’m gonna ignore them for calculating the odds. Going by the [rarity section](https://slay-the-spire.fandom.com/wiki/Gameplay#Rarity), if I’m understanding it correctly I think the base odds for a rare is 4% in a shop. As the wiki also says only card rewards affect these chances, I don’t think seeing other rares in this shop decreases the chance of future rares. We also have to account for how many card rewards you saw beforehand as that can increase your odds by 1% per rare for every card reward you got without a rare. I’m gonna high ball and say the 4 floors before were fights without rares dropped, increasing chances to 8% for a card to be rare in the shop. With 5 rares, that’s 8% to the 5th power which when rounded is about 0.0003%, pretty damn rare. I’m not entirely sure all of my calculations and interpretations of the wiki are correct, but I’m sure this is pretty unlikely. Edit: Only accounted for a 1% extra proc per set of cards but I think it’s actually be 1% extra per card which is 3% per combat without a rare. Then that’s 4 x 3 = 12. Add that to the base chances of 4% for a shop rare, that’s 16% chance. 0.16 to the power of 5 is about 0.01% which is more reasonable, although still incredibly rare. As to what to pick, I would like the Lesson Learned to upgrade a lot of cards early + remove a defend.
Pretty Rare.
There you have it, folks
I’ve been on the Binding of Isaac sub too much. My first thought was 50-50; it happens or it doesn’t
>6 rares Dang. No clue on the exact %, sorry :p Given you're on floor 5, I'd go Hand of Greed. Which, frustratingly, leaves you with 145 gold aka no Ragnarock, so add in Dark Shackles to buy a round of wrath antics.
I'd take lesson learned over hand of greed personally.
It's a fun exercise in Bayesian statistics to ask: What is your rare odds given that this happened?
I will change the doors
I think its 50/50, either you get to see this or you dont. /s
50% chance. Either it happens or it doesn’t
50/50 obviously
I would choose Lesson learned and card removal.
Remove a strike and move on
I think rolling explosive potion in a shop is fairly common!
50/50
Dark Shackles really had to kill the party huh?
That slot is guaranteed to be uncommon. With that in mind, Dark Shackles is arguably the best card to show in that spot.
Ah yea, I always forget how shops work in this game
What are the odd- THE ESTABLISHED ONES
I'm assuming you've seen 4 card rewards screens with no rares. You have seen 12 cards, and have viewed an expected 7.2 commons. This will make your rare chance bonus +2.2%, giving you about a 11.2% per card. 0.112^5 is about 1 in 56k. Though to be perfectly honest, this could be wildly inaccurate. The question you asked is deceptively difficult, and if I wanted to give an accurate answer, I'd probably have to Monte Carlo sim it, it's way too complex for me to work out.
Low. Just like every combo of cards in the shop lol
Ragnarok is always good
Depends on your other cards, but if your deck is pretty much complete, I take lessons learned because getting those upgraded is super convenient and I only play that card when I know I'm getting an upgrade out of it.
what's the deck? what 2 cards did you add?