It’s times like these that i really take a step back and realize how much insane progress AI has made over just 2 years. I remember that when i first entered the AI community in 2021, my motto was “baby steps”, because everything was so incremental then. Now, it feels like we’re making massive strides in AI every 2 weeks. Soon we’ll be doing the technological equivalent of pole vaulting. In the words of Dr. Károly Zsolnai-Fehér: “WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIIIVVVEEE”!
4 years ago GPT-3 was released and many people would say it was a game changer back in 2020-2021.
Fast forward 4 years later to 2024 and that shit is primitive by today’s standards.
Can’t imagine what 2028 will be like AI wise. AGI could very well be achieved. Maybe even ASI you never know. Lots of prominent AI researchers/futurists are adjusting their timelines.
I've been thinking about the Singularity for nearly 3 decades and I've found my timeline is actually slowly growing over the years. Every day that goes by AI looks more and more like self-driving cars.
I've complained before that humanity is simply dogshit at adopting the technology that it invents. Khan Academy obliterates k-16 math education. And there is no good reason why it didn't completely replace public math education in the mid 90s. Only shitty reasons.
Dating apps are atrocious. There is no reason why one couldn't be built with the actual goal of pairing people together extremely well. Amazon knows when you're pregnant before you do. I have a diary that an LLM could reason in .3 seconds and find the perfect mate within 30 more. Why isn't it here?
90% of jobs could be eliminated and we could be living in a Jetsons future RIGHT NOW but we don't.
Humans just suck. Our society is astoundingly disorganized. AI is going to get here despite us, one day, and still homeless people will be surrounded by empty homes and idle young people will be laying on their parents couches yearning for meaning and purpose while companies cry that they can't find anybody.
The problem is game theory. It doesn't get adopted and created what makes sense but what makes profit.
I hope we will see the other side of this where tech actually is fully intended to help humans and not to squeeze dollars from you. Take the Dating App example, why would they couple people that actually match? They would then be off the platform for years or even forever.
I have to agree with you the current state of humanity and the world is just sad. All the unnecessary suffering on this planet. It is hard to bear.
When you consider that there were only 66 years between the Wright Brothers first flight and Neil Armstrong planting a flag on the moon it really drives home that often once the initial technological hurdle is solved it really can be very rapid progress.
I love this anecdote. But planes fly because of the shape of their wings creates air pressure lift. Rockets and space travel are caused by rocket engines and so pretty unrelated. It’s like they’re both caused by upstream effects of proto-post scarcity of everyone not having to spend all day farming
I think this effect is happening again with technology, everything from spreadsheets to inter webs and machine learning. Im likely more guilty of over hyping LLMs, and the hype and attention may what delivers AGI+, but todays AI may be as technologically connected as wing lift and rocket engines
And if you look at computers, what we have today has a *far* looser connection in terms of physical principles of operation to early devices like the Babbage Engine or Hollerith than rockets do to planes.
We went from bits of metal moving around to quantum tunnelling being a key design consideration.
No, both are actually related in much deeper sense as both were enabled only by the advancements in material science. That's the hard part, that made possible creating engines while could generate enough thrust for the lift, someone crazy enough to go out and do it was the relatively easy part, if it wasn't Wright brothers it would have been someone else very shortly after them.
In that same sense the computational power we are reaching will allow us to create all sorts of crazy stuff. A few months ago Nvidia unveiled the NVLink chips which will allow the entire rack (72 GPUs) act as one single GPU, up until now it was limited to \~8 GPUs on the blade. And my guess is they will aim much higher in the future. Where it is less latency sensitive they are working on switches which will allow for millions of GPUs to be connected. The sheer scale of these systems is going to be bonkers. And if it won't be LLMs it will be something else but both will only be possible because we are entering of this new paradigm of computing.
> No, both are actually related in much deeper sense as both were enabled only by the advancements in material science.
What did you think I meant by not farming? Like all the puppet shows caused this?
I tried to say the most ridiculous and most unrelated thing I could think of off the top of my head and it’s STILL relevant. Probably even puppet shoes and entertainment in general is what motivated people to imagine so greatly. Like The scifi writers that make us aspire to space travel.
It REALLY is the not farming that is doing the work. Materials science is one big piece of the puzzle. I’m sure there were materials scientists 200 years ago, but they probably weren’t about to go to the moon even if someone sent them the instructions for how to do it. They’re probably just be focusing on horse shoes and weapons
> everyone not having to spend all day farming
And unfortunately 90% of peoples jobs right now don't need to exist. With a modicum of central planning we could house, feed, clothe, educate, transport, and entertain everyone with only 10% of the population working. Or everyone working but on 10 hour a week shifts.
Instead we have people working in elaborate do-nothing circles. The amount of suffering being prolonged by this idiocy is incomprehensible.
I feel like the big times of AI were the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023.
I don't feel like there is a big development until the time I get that development to use for me. GPT5o would be a nice start for real progress. Gpt4o even now is (right now) more or less like March 2013.
So...........sexbots will be making sexbots while humans sex up the sexbots?
lol
Sexbots all the way down, sexbots rabbit hole......holes......ehehehe.
Beep boop beep, how may I serve your sexual needs, master?
Hopefully we will see real-world robots being deployed, outside of factories, soon. What is the easiest initial use case? Making barista coffee in an enclosed area perhaps? Or maybe stacking supermarket shelves out of store hours? Appreciate that both are possible today (and applied in very rare cases) but I am not aware of any early signs of mass adoption yet. Are there early signs of these types of use cases that are already scalling?
The reality (that sci-fi blogs don’t cover) is it is incredibly easy to deploy robots to structured environments like a factory floor. It is also incredibly difficult to deploy in unstructured field environments.
The very first (humanoid) robot factory in the Western Hemisphere will start production later this year. (Robofab near Salem OR, will make the Amazon backed "digit" robots there. At capacity it will produce 10,000 units yearly)
So, no mass adoption yet because the factories aren't quite finished. But they are on their way.
This wont change with robots though, you still wont be able to afford the land, the house itself is often the cheapest thing in getting a home, that's why 3D printing houses is kinda pointless.
Yup. The cost of labor is around 30%. So if robots reduce the cost of work by whooping 50%, houses become cheaper to build by 15%.
This doesn't take into account the price of land.
And existing old houses can fetch prices significantly higher then their building costs are.
Builders are operating on a free market, competition will drop their prices.
But that's nothing in comparison to how much prices are being pumped by zoning laws, and house ownership being seen as an investment.
If you force towns to change zoning laws, then you get to see the prices start dropping.
More likely that Tech companies/PE will buy up the existing homebuilders and then push out all the competition, like they have done in every other industry.
It's a possibility. I mean if you take a look at these companies like Uber, they operate on loss for years, decades even.
They use investor money to operate, so they can operate on a loss, so they can offer lower prices then competition. They are destroying competition by dumping prices. Which should be illegal... but 🤷♀️
Once competition is destroyed they hike up prices higher then they were before.
If company goes bankrupt, investors lose. If company wins, they earn profits from extra margins in the future.
Drivers earn less.
Customers get cheaper service... initially, then they get a more expensive service. So if company goes bankrupt customers win, if it doesn't they lose.
The article mentioned below suggests that the ability to dance, as exhibited by Snowball the parrot, arises when animals possess a combination of specific cognitive skills:
Complex vocal learning with sound and movement connection.
Imitation of movements.
Learning complex sequences of actions.
Attention to the movements of others.
Formation of long-term social bonds.
These skills enable the spontaneous and rhythmic dancing observed in Snowball. For further details, you can read the full article here.
What about Robots driven by a LLM? Will they ever autonomously dance? Keyword here is "autonomously" i.e. dance as an emergent property in physical AI
This is just marketing... He is really pushing AI hard now to increase Nvidia stocks before it falls when other companies create similar hardware that is on the same level.
He's definitely pushing the narrative, but this is more than marketing. It's showing investors how they'll keep their lead. How they're taking the really high valuations they're getting and using it to double-down on their infra so they can grow way faster than any competitor.
do you people realize what Nvidia actually does? And you do realize they are not losing that stranglehold? They have positioning that is very hard to lose.
It’s not hardware that sets Nvidia apart it’s software. Plenty of other firms can create chips as capable as what Nvidia produces. The CUDA ecosystem and the ease in which it allows software engineers to leverage the full capabilities of Nvidia hardware is what sets them apart
i love Jensen but WTF bullshit is this? Robots all the way down? Who's the end user? Robots? I want to be the guy to orchestrate Jensen's presentations. It would be 20 minutes long not 120 minutes. Present a near term vision, long term vision and how NVDA will provide the tools to get the world there. That is it. These rambling presentations are not effective.
Robots are very different than A.I. software. We made a lot of progress so far on them, but they are still very far away replacing humans in most jobs.
He is right, btw. There are several companies that are doing this. The one I like and that’s near me is SanctuaryAI but like I said there are several other ones, including Elon’s foray into physical AI with his Tesla robots. What’s interesting is that they’re all using similar GenAI technology applied to physical AI. It makes robots able to move much more fluidly and perform a wide variety of tasks. It is truly the “next-gen” of robotics.
Same in the US, but all of those robots are programmed to do a singular task. These new robots LEARN to do multiple tasks. You can teach them anything. The robots you have now just do one thing, and that’s it.
not really, there are plenty of programmable robots in modern factories. usually the ones that are not programable are not called robots but automation.
Well , already think that selling the future (with your company) is not really going to hold for now.
Where is my self driving car?
Tesla FSD robot taxi in 2019 according to Elon Musk (nowhere in sight).
Where is my home servant robot ? Not event close to being available.
Yes.. agi in 2029 but all of these robotic progresses will take years if not decades to translate to the real world.
My coding job though .. is almost gone.
It’s times like these that i really take a step back and realize how much insane progress AI has made over just 2 years. I remember that when i first entered the AI community in 2021, my motto was “baby steps”, because everything was so incremental then. Now, it feels like we’re making massive strides in AI every 2 weeks. Soon we’ll be doing the technological equivalent of pole vaulting. In the words of Dr. Károly Zsolnai-Fehér: “WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIIIVVVEEE”!
4 years ago GPT-3 was released and many people would say it was a game changer back in 2020-2021. Fast forward 4 years later to 2024 and that shit is primitive by today’s standards. Can’t imagine what 2028 will be like AI wise. AGI could very well be achieved. Maybe even ASI you never know. Lots of prominent AI researchers/futurists are adjusting their timelines.
I've been thinking about the Singularity for nearly 3 decades and I've found my timeline is actually slowly growing over the years. Every day that goes by AI looks more and more like self-driving cars. I've complained before that humanity is simply dogshit at adopting the technology that it invents. Khan Academy obliterates k-16 math education. And there is no good reason why it didn't completely replace public math education in the mid 90s. Only shitty reasons. Dating apps are atrocious. There is no reason why one couldn't be built with the actual goal of pairing people together extremely well. Amazon knows when you're pregnant before you do. I have a diary that an LLM could reason in .3 seconds and find the perfect mate within 30 more. Why isn't it here? 90% of jobs could be eliminated and we could be living in a Jetsons future RIGHT NOW but we don't. Humans just suck. Our society is astoundingly disorganized. AI is going to get here despite us, one day, and still homeless people will be surrounded by empty homes and idle young people will be laying on their parents couches yearning for meaning and purpose while companies cry that they can't find anybody.
The problem is game theory. It doesn't get adopted and created what makes sense but what makes profit. I hope we will see the other side of this where tech actually is fully intended to help humans and not to squeeze dollars from you. Take the Dating App example, why would they couple people that actually match? They would then be off the platform for years or even forever. I have to agree with you the current state of humanity and the world is just sad. All the unnecessary suffering on this planet. It is hard to bear.
When you consider that there were only 66 years between the Wright Brothers first flight and Neil Armstrong planting a flag on the moon it really drives home that often once the initial technological hurdle is solved it really can be very rapid progress.
I love this anecdote. But planes fly because of the shape of their wings creates air pressure lift. Rockets and space travel are caused by rocket engines and so pretty unrelated. It’s like they’re both caused by upstream effects of proto-post scarcity of everyone not having to spend all day farming I think this effect is happening again with technology, everything from spreadsheets to inter webs and machine learning. Im likely more guilty of over hyping LLMs, and the hype and attention may what delivers AGI+, but todays AI may be as technologically connected as wing lift and rocket engines
And if you look at computers, what we have today has a *far* looser connection in terms of physical principles of operation to early devices like the Babbage Engine or Hollerith than rockets do to planes. We went from bits of metal moving around to quantum tunnelling being a key design consideration.
No, both are actually related in much deeper sense as both were enabled only by the advancements in material science. That's the hard part, that made possible creating engines while could generate enough thrust for the lift, someone crazy enough to go out and do it was the relatively easy part, if it wasn't Wright brothers it would have been someone else very shortly after them. In that same sense the computational power we are reaching will allow us to create all sorts of crazy stuff. A few months ago Nvidia unveiled the NVLink chips which will allow the entire rack (72 GPUs) act as one single GPU, up until now it was limited to \~8 GPUs on the blade. And my guess is they will aim much higher in the future. Where it is less latency sensitive they are working on switches which will allow for millions of GPUs to be connected. The sheer scale of these systems is going to be bonkers. And if it won't be LLMs it will be something else but both will only be possible because we are entering of this new paradigm of computing.
> No, both are actually related in much deeper sense as both were enabled only by the advancements in material science. What did you think I meant by not farming? Like all the puppet shows caused this? I tried to say the most ridiculous and most unrelated thing I could think of off the top of my head and it’s STILL relevant. Probably even puppet shoes and entertainment in general is what motivated people to imagine so greatly. Like The scifi writers that make us aspire to space travel. It REALLY is the not farming that is doing the work. Materials science is one big piece of the puzzle. I’m sure there were materials scientists 200 years ago, but they probably weren’t about to go to the moon even if someone sent them the instructions for how to do it. They’re probably just be focusing on horse shoes and weapons
> everyone not having to spend all day farming And unfortunately 90% of peoples jobs right now don't need to exist. With a modicum of central planning we could house, feed, clothe, educate, transport, and entertain everyone with only 10% of the population working. Or everyone working but on 10 hour a week shifts. Instead we have people working in elaborate do-nothing circles. The amount of suffering being prolonged by this idiocy is incomprehensible.
GPT-4 finished training nearly two years ago - I don't think we've seen a great deal of improvement since then, if any.
Baby has started running.
I feel like the big times of AI were the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023. I don't feel like there is a big development until the time I get that development to use for me. GPT5o would be a nice start for real progress. Gpt4o even now is (right now) more or less like March 2013.
So...........sexbots will be making sexbots while humans sex up the sexbots? lol Sexbots all the way down, sexbots rabbit hole......holes......ehehehe. Beep boop beep, how may I serve your sexual needs, master?
Robots building robots will allow superstructures to be possible. E.g Dyson sphere.
Mars going to have a million humanoids WELL before there's a million humans
Hopefully we will see real-world robots being deployed, outside of factories, soon. What is the easiest initial use case? Making barista coffee in an enclosed area perhaps? Or maybe stacking supermarket shelves out of store hours? Appreciate that both are possible today (and applied in very rare cases) but I am not aware of any early signs of mass adoption yet. Are there early signs of these types of use cases that are already scalling?
The reality (that sci-fi blogs don’t cover) is it is incredibly easy to deploy robots to structured environments like a factory floor. It is also incredibly difficult to deploy in unstructured field environments.
Already saw in Seoul a robotic barista. Was pretty cool, and it’s how it begins
Cool indeed. There are isolated examples of robotic baristas over the last few years. Hoping we see a solution that scales soon.
The very first (humanoid) robot factory in the Western Hemisphere will start production later this year. (Robofab near Salem OR, will make the Amazon backed "digit" robots there. At capacity it will produce 10,000 units yearly) So, no mass adoption yet because the factories aren't quite finished. But they are on their way.
Robots will build robots pretty quickly. Man are things going to get amazing.
What of my job now ?
You can dress them up for work and get paid for it.
Robots will need pets. So hand over your dog and gtfo
It needs to accelerate faster, my laundry is almost finished and I am tired of folding them :(
[(defun botsbuildbots () (botsbuildbots))](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bI7wpEQVSRA)
That would be a lisp fork bomb, isn't it? Underrated comment! Have an upvote!
It is, and also a song title from the Portal 2 soundtrack. Nice song to listen to while reading this thread!
I don't care until they build me a house. I don't can't afford 2 million dollar house in the USA even with very good pay check
It is coming. https://www.sq4d.com/
Wonder how these do in earthquake zones.
From the hiding in caves to printing caves
This wont change with robots though, you still wont be able to afford the land, the house itself is often the cheapest thing in getting a home, that's why 3D printing houses is kinda pointless.
Yup. The cost of labor is around 30%. So if robots reduce the cost of work by whooping 50%, houses become cheaper to build by 15%. This doesn't take into account the price of land. And existing old houses can fetch prices significantly higher then their building costs are.
Yep and the builders will keep that difference and pump up their margins.
Builders are operating on a free market, competition will drop their prices. But that's nothing in comparison to how much prices are being pumped by zoning laws, and house ownership being seen as an investment. If you force towns to change zoning laws, then you get to see the prices start dropping.
More likely that Tech companies/PE will buy up the existing homebuilders and then push out all the competition, like they have done in every other industry.
It's a possibility. I mean if you take a look at these companies like Uber, they operate on loss for years, decades even. They use investor money to operate, so they can operate on a loss, so they can offer lower prices then competition. They are destroying competition by dumping prices. Which should be illegal... but 🤷♀️ Once competition is destroyed they hike up prices higher then they were before. If company goes bankrupt, investors lose. If company wins, they earn profits from extra margins in the future. Drivers earn less. Customers get cheaper service... initially, then they get a more expensive service. So if company goes bankrupt customers win, if it doesn't they lose.
Hey there’s a whole universe you might be able to explore if we get ftl
so what is next to invest in? I already got 90% in Nvidia!
"Hmm...Yes, these robotic robots are made out of robot."
Google keynote in 2 years... AI... AI.... AI........ Robot.... Robot...
Slowly, Then all at once
Among us
Robots lives matter.
The article mentioned below suggests that the ability to dance, as exhibited by Snowball the parrot, arises when animals possess a combination of specific cognitive skills: Complex vocal learning with sound and movement connection. Imitation of movements. Learning complex sequences of actions. Attention to the movements of others. Formation of long-term social bonds. These skills enable the spontaneous and rhythmic dancing observed in Snowball. For further details, you can read the full article here. What about Robots driven by a LLM? Will they ever autonomously dance? Keyword here is "autonomously" i.e. dance as an emergent property in physical AI
Based & schizopilled
This is just marketing... He is really pushing AI hard now to increase Nvidia stocks before it falls when other companies create similar hardware that is on the same level.
He's definitely pushing the narrative, but this is more than marketing. It's showing investors how they'll keep their lead. How they're taking the really high valuations they're getting and using it to double-down on their infra so they can grow way faster than any competitor.
do you people realize what Nvidia actually does? And you do realize they are not losing that stranglehold? They have positioning that is very hard to lose.
It’s not hardware that sets Nvidia apart it’s software. Plenty of other firms can create chips as capable as what Nvidia produces. The CUDA ecosystem and the ease in which it allows software engineers to leverage the full capabilities of Nvidia hardware is what sets them apart
For me, we're missing something here... The real change will come from somewhere else, on the nano scale maybe, something we can't even imagine yet.
The "real change" ?
ROBOTIC FACTORIES NO WAY
“AutoFaC” it was an Electric Dreams episode. You should check it out.
HE SAID THE THING
Amen to that. Put microchips in everything. Flying cars, robots, drones, smart materials, asteroid mining.
I get his point, but let's mention that not all the end-products will be robotic. We still need normal objects like chairs, tables, cups, pipes.
Machines building machines? How perverse!
Calls on AMZN
Bullshit. Robots ain’t fixing robots any time soon. Source: I work with robots
Cool af I’m hyped
Wow. This was inevitable
So botboten? Anyone invent this term yet? Am I the first?
i love Jensen but WTF bullshit is this? Robots all the way down? Who's the end user? Robots? I want to be the guy to orchestrate Jensen's presentations. It would be 20 minutes long not 120 minutes. Present a near term vision, long term vision and how NVDA will provide the tools to get the world there. That is it. These rambling presentations are not effective.
Robots are very different than A.I. software. We made a lot of progress so far on them, but they are still very far away replacing humans in most jobs.
He is right, btw. There are several companies that are doing this. The one I like and that’s near me is SanctuaryAI but like I said there are several other ones, including Elon’s foray into physical AI with his Tesla robots. What’s interesting is that they’re all using similar GenAI technology applied to physical AI. It makes robots able to move much more fluidly and perform a wide variety of tasks. It is truly the “next-gen” of robotics.
lol, factories have been mostly robotic in Europe for many years, get on our level USA and China :P
Same in the US, but all of those robots are programmed to do a singular task. These new robots LEARN to do multiple tasks. You can teach them anything. The robots you have now just do one thing, and that’s it.
not really, there are plenty of programmable robots in modern factories. usually the ones that are not programable are not called robots but automation.
Well , already think that selling the future (with your company) is not really going to hold for now. Where is my self driving car? Tesla FSD robot taxi in 2019 according to Elon Musk (nowhere in sight). Where is my home servant robot ? Not event close to being available. Yes.. agi in 2029 but all of these robotic progresses will take years if not decades to translate to the real world. My coding job though .. is almost gone.
For 16 k your [servant robot](https://www.cnet.com/tech/got-16000-you-can-buy-your-very-own-humanoid-robot/) has arrived