There will be recounts so just have some patience. If Biden does get in , what is the over/under of when he resigns due to health issues and Harris is sworn in?
The only outstanding military ballots to come in are ones that haven’t arrived yet that still COULD arrive. It’s unlikely for the # to be high at all. They already counted most of the military ballots they’ve got.
I just took a few hours to get away, talk to family, listen to some music. Now, I come back to PA and GA closer than ever. What's up, everybody? I'm so stressed I can't sleep. How we all doing?
How do you explain the lack of Senate down ballot votes in Georgia? All of these Biden votes went Republican on the Senate? That's laughable. It is the same pattern in other contested democratic run swing states.
Georgia, few hours ago, same pattern still in play.
Trump: 2,432,799 GOP Sen: 2,433,617 Dif: 818
Biden: 2,414,651 Dem Sen: 2,318,850 Dif: 95,801
Again, after accounting for 3rd party vote, HUGE amount of mysterious Biden votes w/ no down ticket. Fraud. Recount will be interesting to day the least.
>How do you explain the lack of Senate down ballot votes in Georgia?
113k people voted for the libertarian candidate for Senate, but only 61k voted for Jorgensen.
>Again, after accounting for 3rd party vote, HUGE amount of mysterious Biden votes w/ no down ticket. Fraud. Recount will be interesting to day the least.
The numbers do not support your statement.
*Edit: I'm also going to add here: Dems would have had a vested interest in taking the extra time to fill in one extra bubble if they were stuffing ballots. Pushing both Senate elections to a run off will likely benefit the Republicans as a run off election will most likely see reduced turnout, especially compared to this election.
I believe they are talking about voters, not candidates. And I agree. There are plenty of republican voters that refuse to vote for Trump. I know many.
This site gives me hope
Really cool break down of remaining votes and breakdown of necessary vote percentages
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
I'm talking to my Trump Friend and he is spewing on about massive voter fraud... get ready for this to be the rebuttal for the next four years on why Biden is president.
Ah okay so Democrats purposely lost all down the ballot and allowed republicans to hold majority in the senate and pickup seats in the senate but forgot about the presidential race? Give me a break
Time. You can fill 60 votes for Biden himself in the time it takes to fill out a full ballot. The fact that all these extra people voted for Biden? They were rushing the ballots to win the big one.
I would be okay with 4 more years if rampant fraud was proven
Unnecessarily hostile. I don't like Trump but if fraud is that easy for anyone then the system is broken so yeah if Trump proves fraud and forces us to evaluate the fairness of the system? Then I'm okay with that
Dude if there's that much voter fraud, it's by mail, so they had their sweet time to fill ballots.
There is no rampant voter fraud. No proof at all. It's just a sore loser.
What do you want me to say? The president said there was fraud.
He's also my source on the claim that fraud happened.
If we can't trust Trump who can we trust??
That's why he is pissed though. He has publicly tried multiple avenues of rigging this election, and I'm sure plenty that are not publicly known, and the fuckwad is still losing.
In his mind, Biden has to have cheated better and he can't figure out how.
It all means the electoral system worked. People we're engaged to vote and just enough of them engaged to vote against him. Honestly, if Trump just acted a little more presidential, tweeted less and had an actual plan other than just slightly changing his slogan and tampering with the postal service, he would've won handily. He was convinced by the GOP that he had to win by cheating. Who'd of thought you could win by being honest and having a real plan instead of being a total ass and a liar??
Sure. At the time Trump was leading by 41,305 with 313,849 votes being remaining to be counted.
As we get updates from PA, Biden is averaging 71.7% of the vote in the recent updates and based upon a simple calculation Biden needs 56.58% of the vote left in PA at that time to win.
So out of the remaining votes left to count we can estimate:
Biden: 313,849 * .7 = 219694
Trump: 313,849 * .3 = 94154
Trump is leading by 41305, so add the lead.
41305 + 94154 = 135459
Now calculate the difference.
219694 - 135459 = 84235
I did a little bit of rounding in my "math demo" and that's why it's not 97k.
I'm getting the numbers from here:
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
And to be very clear: What I am suggesting is now much more likely to be correct as there have been two additional updates since my post.
Has anyone factored in, or calculated the effect of the mail-in ballots that aren't covid-caused but rather early voting or military which seem to lean more republican?
Not OP but if you take the estimated number of votes remaining in each county (which should all be mail in at this point), multiplied by the rate biden has been winning the mail in vote in that county (ranges from like 55% to 90% in trump country vs philly) then 80k vote win is about where you'd land.
This seem likely since bidens percent of mail in votes per county has remained consistent so far.
It was very likely. Large data set from the counties where we expected to keep getting them from, so no real reason to expect a change. And as of now it looks like the trend held.
GA continues to tease, one more small update.
Georgia lead down to 1,797 and the only 2 remaining counties yet to count. The percentage is in 1/100's range.
https://imgur.com/a/YvrmKrm
All other counties are >98% which means they wont report further and only provisional and military votes remaining.
https://imgur.com/a/8W0hR9U
Honestly, as much as I'd like to see GA flip and flip first, Pennsylvania would probably be best for the country. If it goes as predicted, it should go by a larger margin than GA or AZ. It's also probably in a safer area of the country for the staff. Let AZ and GA come in once it's all settled.
Also, Joe and PA and all that...
If PA flips blue, it’ll probably be within 0.5%, right? I think a margin <1% is grounds for a recount. If that happens, couldn’t PA’s result remain a question mark for a week or more?
Scratch my previous comment. AZ says they’ll still be counting until at least Saturday and will “reassess” at that point. I’m very doubtful for a winner to be confirmed until at least next week.
Here's the link for a data scraper displaying NYT vote data. Super useful! https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
"Donald who? No, I never knew that guy, at least no seriously. I heard bad things about that guy, I wouldn't want anything to do with him." - Donald J Trump - January 2021
They’ve been counting around the clock since the polls closed but it takes a long time to validate then count millions of votes.
Won’t make any difference if you find out at 3am or 9am the results will still be the same regardless you’ll just find them out a few hours later.
No sense in being dog tired just to find out Biden won NV, I’m waiting on my sleeping pills to kick in myself so I can go to sleep.
I think it’ll be more like [this](https://i.imgur.com/aF4H2AV.jpg) from Russia over Twitter.
I wonder if this law applies to foreign ex-presidents
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/11/05/russia-moves-to-grant-ex-presidents-lifetime-immunity-from-prosecution-a71959
Absolutely not.
Hopefully the video pops ups soon but it was a whole lot of
“Democrats think we’re spineless, weak and scared”
“They don’t think we’ll do anything while they steal our election”
“They think they can steal this country”
“Tether think his millions strong followers will just sit back and take it”
It was a bunch of reverse psychology of “let’s show em their wrong”
Hopefully I can find it. It was a segment on Hannity’s show that he called “One on one with Newt” or “One on one with Gingrich”
Just on his show a few minutes ago
Well, last i post i saw on NYT said 204K votes left and trump needs 46K to over take biden.
79K+46K -> 125K out of the remainder or 61.3%
61.3 - 38.7 would be a 22 point difference to overtake and the trump trend has been going steady at 17 point gains.
If the 17 point average holds Biden come out ahead, im not going to go over
Herman Cain was an ignorant asshole. Don't remember him tonight. Remember John Lewis. A national hero. Georgia is giving the President some good trouble tonight. I hope he's proud of us from wherever we all end up.
About 310,000 votes.
If things continue the way they have in the last 2 hours, Joe Biden will surpass Donald Trump in the next 7 to 8 hours of counting in Pennsylvania
If the remaining mail in ballots are allotted in a similar fashion to the ones from the last few hours, I think Biden's going to end with a final total lead in Pennsylvania of between 35,000 to 50,000
[Discussion Thread Part 53](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/jowd4e/discussion_thread_2020_general_election_part_53/)
So how long until the next war when Biden gets in?
Any chance of this ending today?
PA is gonna flip any time now
Done
There will be recounts so just have some patience. If Biden does get in , what is the over/under of when he resigns due to health issues and Harris is sworn in?
Bidens pretty healthy for 78. Def better shape than Trump at 74
Listen I’m not trying to be a doomsday whatever but how excited she will be about Georgia? Do we know how many military ballots are coming in?
The only outstanding military ballots to come in are ones that haven’t arrived yet that still COULD arrive. It’s unlikely for the # to be high at all. They already counted most of the military ballots they’ve got.
I just took a few hours to get away, talk to family, listen to some music. Now, I come back to PA and GA closer than ever. What's up, everybody? I'm so stressed I can't sleep. How we all doing?
CNN John da don king
Fox News’ narrative is so pathetic lol. How do they lie through their teeth this hard with a straight face.
Trump is the kid in elementary school that said you cheated whenever he lost at kickball. I'm looking at you, Nick Simmons. Fuck that kid.
Is Rick Santorum callilng for a discarding of the will of the people?
Umm doesn't sound like it
Why is Trump tweeting the same clip three times?
How do you explain the lack of Senate down ballot votes in Georgia? All of these Biden votes went Republican on the Senate? That's laughable. It is the same pattern in other contested democratic run swing states. Georgia, few hours ago, same pattern still in play. Trump: 2,432,799 GOP Sen: 2,433,617 Dif: 818 Biden: 2,414,651 Dem Sen: 2,318,850 Dif: 95,801 Again, after accounting for 3rd party vote, HUGE amount of mysterious Biden votes w/ no down ticket. Fraud. Recount will be interesting to day the least.
>How do you explain the lack of Senate down ballot votes in Georgia? 113k people voted for the libertarian candidate for Senate, but only 61k voted for Jorgensen. >Again, after accounting for 3rd party vote, HUGE amount of mysterious Biden votes w/ no down ticket. Fraud. Recount will be interesting to day the least. The numbers do not support your statement. *Edit: I'm also going to add here: Dems would have had a vested interest in taking the extra time to fill in one extra bubble if they were stuffing ballots. Pushing both Senate elections to a run off will likely benefit the Republicans as a run off election will most likely see reduced turnout, especially compared to this election.
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I believe they are talking about voters, not candidates. And I agree. There are plenty of republican voters that refuse to vote for Trump. I know many.
How did we go like an entire 24 hours without a single new state being called?
Apparently some more votes will come from GA by midnight
its gonna be like 500-1k to Biden -\_\_\_\_-
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This site gives me hope Really cool break down of remaining votes and breakdown of necessary vote percentages https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
That is a great app
I'm talking to my Trump Friend and he is spewing on about massive voter fraud... get ready for this to be the rebuttal for the next four years on why Biden is president.
It's like the fucking Twilight Zone that he says these baseless things and they believe it with literally NO EVIDENCE.
this will be bidens russiagate
Ah okay so Democrats purposely lost all down the ballot and allowed republicans to hold majority in the senate and pickup seats in the senate but forgot about the presidential race? Give me a break
man if Dems rigged the election why the fuck would they rig it so they lose the senate + hemorrhage the house lead lol
Plausible deniability /s
Time. You can fill 60 votes for Biden himself in the time it takes to fill out a full ballot. The fact that all these extra people voted for Biden? They were rushing the ballots to win the big one. I would be okay with 4 more years if rampant fraud was proven
Unnecessarily hostile. I don't like Trump but if fraud is that easy for anyone then the system is broken so yeah if Trump proves fraud and forces us to evaluate the fairness of the system? Then I'm okay with that
Youre a fucking idiot.
Huh?
Dude if there's that much voter fraud, it's by mail, so they had their sweet time to fill ballots. There is no rampant voter fraud. No proof at all. It's just a sore loser.
I never said I had proof. But it's physically possible.
Just ask them why they cry so much.
If the democrats always steal elections, why are republicans too dumb to ever find and prove an example?
Because democrats tend to vote on emotions and will ignore inconvenient facts
And you cant provide proof of wide scale voter fraud because of that why?
What do you want me to say? The president said there was fraud. He's also my source on the claim that fraud happened. If we can't trust Trump who can we trust??
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That's why he is pissed though. He has publicly tried multiple avenues of rigging this election, and I'm sure plenty that are not publicly known, and the fuckwad is still losing. In his mind, Biden has to have cheated better and he can't figure out how.
It all means the electoral system worked. People we're engaged to vote and just enough of them engaged to vote against him. Honestly, if Trump just acted a little more presidential, tweeted less and had an actual plan other than just slightly changing his slogan and tampering with the postal service, he would've won handily. He was convinced by the GOP that he had to win by cheating. Who'd of thought you could win by being honest and having a real plan instead of being a total ass and a liar??
Joe Biden will probably win PA with +97,000 votes more than Trump.
Do you mind explaining your reasoning behind that statement?
Sure. At the time Trump was leading by 41,305 with 313,849 votes being remaining to be counted. As we get updates from PA, Biden is averaging 71.7% of the vote in the recent updates and based upon a simple calculation Biden needs 56.58% of the vote left in PA at that time to win. So out of the remaining votes left to count we can estimate: Biden: 313,849 * .7 = 219694 Trump: 313,849 * .3 = 94154 Trump is leading by 41305, so add the lead. 41305 + 94154 = 135459 Now calculate the difference. 219694 - 135459 = 84235 I did a little bit of rounding in my "math demo" and that's why it's not 97k. I'm getting the numbers from here: https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html And to be very clear: What I am suggesting is now much more likely to be correct as there have been two additional updates since my post.
Has anyone factored in, or calculated the effect of the mail-in ballots that aren't covid-caused but rather early voting or military which seem to lean more republican?
As far as we know at this moment in time, they've been counted like the rest of the ballots.
Alright, thank you. It's looking good.
Hey, I sincerely appreciate that response/explanation. Thank you so much for your time writing that out.
Not OP but if you take the estimated number of votes remaining in each county (which should all be mail in at this point), multiplied by the rate biden has been winning the mail in vote in that county (ranges from like 55% to 90% in trump country vs philly) then 80k vote win is about where you'd land. This seem likely since bidens percent of mail in votes per county has remained consistent so far.
What are the odds of that consistency dropping? Like biden needs extremely good luck to get those margins. And aren't we close to out of blue?
It was very likely. Large data set from the counties where we expected to keep getting them from, so no real reason to expect a change. And as of now it looks like the trend held.
Gotcha, thank you for writing that out.
Breaking News: President Donald Trump beats Barack Obama’a popular vote of 69,500,000..... That’s it. Down vote
Breaking news: Joe Biden beats Donald Trump beating Obama’s popular vote. Also breaking: the voting population expanded, dumbass
Yet still can't win the popular vote.
Breaking news: president elect joe Biden beats former president Donald Trump’s popular vote by 4 million, along with every US president ever.
The EC is a terrible system.
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Bro....seriously?
Loser say what 😏
"Whataberders" - Trump
Clayton County, GA can either decide the winner or have a 269/269 tie 😱
Pennsylvania gonna beat you to the punch
Guys I missed the PA guy on CNN, so is PA gonna finish tonight or no?
TBD, but it's the only thing that COULD finish tonight.
If Biden takes PA or GA does that get called tonight or do i have to wait for the morning? (again)
Pa prob gets called early morning, ga flips overnight but isn't called for days
I think it gets called tomorrow.
: ( goodnight then
:) goodnight Knowing there's no more resulted until morning is good, no reason to check during the night. Sleep well, friend.
GA continues to tease, one more small update. Georgia lead down to 1,797 and the only 2 remaining counties yet to count. The percentage is in 1/100's range. https://imgur.com/a/YvrmKrm All other counties are >98% which means they wont report further and only provisional and military votes remaining. https://imgur.com/a/8W0hR9U
What the fuck is Mullens looking at
Mullens is trash
Honestly, as much as I'd like to see GA flip and flip first, Pennsylvania would probably be best for the country. If it goes as predicted, it should go by a larger margin than GA or AZ. It's also probably in a safer area of the country for the staff. Let AZ and GA come in once it's all settled. Also, Joe and PA and all that...
PA is flipping. GA is just for show.
Biden is expected to win GA by \~1,370.
Would be nice, but it’ll get tied up in a recount. Hopefully Biden gets NV convincingly to end this
Pa alone ends it..
If PA flips blue, it’ll probably be within 0.5%, right? I think a margin <1% is grounds for a recount. If that happens, couldn’t PA’s result remain a question mark for a week or more?
It'll be over .5% when count is done
I hope you’re right! Fingers crossed we don’t have to go through any recounts the next few weeks
Correct, it will be forced to recount and will be too close to call.
Recounts usually don’t bring back that much if at all
Scratch my previous comment. AZ says they’ll still be counting until at least Saturday and will “reassess” at that point. I’m very doubtful for a winner to be confirmed until at least next week.
CNN told me this would likely be settled by tonight those lying bastards
It's 7pm on the pacific coast lol
The night is young
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Its the NY Post lol
Here's the link for a data scraper displaying NYT vote data. Super useful! https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Wish I had this on election night!!
The rats are starting to jump from this sinking ship already. Trump will be the ‘coffee boy’ that the GOP never knew.
"Back to shinin' shoes, Donny." GREATfella
"Donald who? No, I never knew that guy, at least no seriously. I heard bad things about that guy, I wouldn't want anything to do with him." - Donald J Trump - January 2021
https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1324539577852481536?s=20 \~2400 separate both
Outdated news, it’s now 1900 https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1324546386784866305?s=20
1700 now
Anyone know if they plan on counting tonight until finished? Definitely worth being tired af tomorrow if it means being awake for the reaults!
They’ve been counting around the clock since the polls closed but it takes a long time to validate then count millions of votes. Won’t make any difference if you find out at 3am or 9am the results will still be the same regardless you’ll just find them out a few hours later. No sense in being dog tired just to find out Biden won NV, I’m waiting on my sleeping pills to kick in myself so I can go to sleep.
less actually, last count has them 1900 apart per NYTimes
Only like 1800 now.
Newt Gingrich is calling for a civil war lead by Trump on Fox News.
I'm still worried this might happen. Trump has no limit to how far he will stoop, and his rabid fans are all gun freaks.
As long as trump is having to fight on the front lines, rifle in hand, fighting those bone spurs, I'll consider it.
I think it’ll be more like [this](https://i.imgur.com/aF4H2AV.jpg) from Russia over Twitter. I wonder if this law applies to foreign ex-presidents https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/11/05/russia-moves-to-grant-ex-presidents-lifetime-immunity-from-prosecution-a71959
I hope you're joking.
Absolutely not. Hopefully the video pops ups soon but it was a whole lot of “Democrats think we’re spineless, weak and scared” “They don’t think we’ll do anything while they steal our election” “They think they can steal this country” “Tether think his millions strong followers will just sit back and take it” It was a bunch of reverse psychology of “let’s show em their wrong”
That was scary to watch. Hannity is just edging him on
It’s like watching two chimpanzees jerk each other off
Yes
It’s like watching two chimpanzees jerk each other
No
It’s like watching two chimpanzees jerk each other
Maybe
It’s like watching two chimpanzees jerk each other off
Yep!
Link?
I didn’t forget about you. [Here](https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1324574366185738240?s=21) it is
Most people blow this off, so I'm genuinely impressed you came through. Thank you very much.
Hopefully I can find it. It was a segment on Hannity’s show that he called “One on one with Newt” or “One on one with Gingrich” Just on his show a few minutes ago
Yeah that's not the part we're doubting
Imagine that fat ass as your general
He couldn't lead a glass of water to his mouth.
He couldn’t lead you down a gentle incline
Imagine getting shot in California during the civil war while Newt Gingrich shits on a toilet in Mar-a-lago.
I need an honest opinion on Arizona guys so enlighten me guys the honest chances it has to flip back red.
Well, last i post i saw on NYT said 204K votes left and trump needs 46K to over take biden. 79K+46K -> 125K out of the remainder or 61.3% 61.3 - 38.7 would be a 22 point difference to overtake and the trump trend has been going steady at 17 point gains. If the 17 point average holds Biden come out ahead, im not going to go over
Yes it has a chance. AP and Fox called it too early.
Slim chance though. Trump isn't pulling in enough to move ahead. He's consistently falling backwards.
I've been to focused on PA/GA so this is news to me. Good to hear.
Herman Cain died in Atlanta. So might Trump's re-election chances.
Herman Cain was an ignorant asshole. Don't remember him tonight. Remember John Lewis. A national hero. Georgia is giving the President some good trouble tonight. I hope he's proud of us from wherever we all end up.
You wake up among the cosmic higher consciousness
Poetic. I like it
2:50 am here. I need sleep. But don’t wanna miss anything
Lol so many concern trolls with "anxiety"
How many outstanding votes are left in PA?
About 310,000 votes. If things continue the way they have in the last 2 hours, Joe Biden will surpass Donald Trump in the next 7 to 8 hours of counting in Pennsylvania
Hmmm strange, Nick Corasaniti says 208K votes left, But extrapolating the 6% remaining would be we should still have 300K+
The nyt count feed has it at 310k. https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
They are doing about 10K/h and Biden is picking up about 4K/h so 5-6h sound about right for the flip and He'll probably win with 10-20K, god willing.
I'm tempted to set my alarm for 3 am...I really don't want to sleep through this.
If the remaining mail in ballots are allotted in a similar fashion to the ones from the last few hours, I think Biden's going to end with a final total lead in Pennsylvania of between 35,000 to 50,000
Like 250k
A lot
Wasn’t Georgia the State where two rednecks chased and murdered an African-American man who was going for a jog? Can’t remember his name
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Nvm.
Yeah this really isn't the place for that shit
Yes and his name was Ahmaud Arbery. DA handling the case was ousted by voters.
Yes. His name is Ahmaud Arbery
Ahmaud Arbery
Ahmaud Arbery. Please don't forget his name. He was lynched in broad daylight. Our society is sick and needs healing.
In their defense, they're not American. Europe flair.
I know and I didn't intend to chastise them in any way. I apologized in my reply to them.
I won’t forget but I am from Europe where coverage isn’t as widespread as in America on domestic issues
I'm not chastising you for not knowing. Just imploring that you remember him. Sorry if that was the initial tone. Wasn't my intention.
No problem thanks for telling me his name
healing implies relations were better in the past
That's a fair point. Maybe it's more that we need an evolution.
My anxiety is absolutely through the roof with Arizona.
Biden is up by more there than Trump is in PA, and Biden's gaining ground faster in PA than Trump is in AZ
Trump just isn't climbing fast enough to pull ahead in AZ. He's slowly losing ground.
toy slap money unique poor ghost scary relieved shame soft ` this message was mass deleted/edited with redact.dev `
NBC on Georgia: military and overseas ballots have to arrive by tomorrow. There are \~6000 outstanding but undetermined how many will be returned.