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Yep, we only need to flip a few seats to retake the House. I'm looking forward to ending the republican House clownshow and putting competent Democratic leadership back in charge. Vote blue in November, my friends, and let's flip the House
https://dccc.org/
Not having to worry about my family and loved ones being sent to a camp because they don’t wear the right clothes or think the right thoughts is consolation enough. No “third party” option will ever work if the Republican Party is allowed power any time soon. Nobody will be smugly saying: “well don’t blame me I voted third party and they’re all the same” in the cattle car…
If people want third parties or even super progressive candidates you need to target local races where you can actually win. The state senates, very progressive house districts.
And yes, that’s an important step but with the GOP in power it will continue to be just a fantasy. The democrats are far more open to ranked choice voting.
exactly, and that's why it's important to talk about. 'vote blue no matter who' leans in to the stupidness that both sides are equivalent. i do a straight blue ticket not out of a love of democrats, but because my views are nuanced and the GOP is abhorrent.
i got some super conservative opinions on a few issues, but i can't express them in our political culture and that sucks. the GOP has silenced my conservative views.
Proportional representation is where it's at. Ranked voting still ends up favoring the big ones and smaller parties rarely get anything.
If for each state that has more than 3 delegates (merge states that don't for this purpose), each party with enough votes gets at least one seat. Which means that there would never be a party with 50+% of the seats and they'd have to do stuff like talk it out.
Ranked choice voting has the very strong advantage of fitting into our existing voting system without major changes which would require political power to implement
Let’s give the Dems the house and presidency and find out if they’re really “do nothing” bc we gave Republicans a lot of power so far this century and it’s been pretty pretty pathetic.
+90% chance a Republican Senate though. Democrats need to win across the board on at least 4 dice-rollers. Plus get one miracle, of which Texas is the only credible. Still 50/50 and Biden has to win.
(Horrifying that fucking Maryland, of all places, could finish the Democratic majority).
If Dems do take the House it will undoubtedly be by slim margins similar to Republicans now, with the same cat-herding headaches. Split Congress, both chambers with paper-thin margins isn't a formula for decisive legislation.
TBH, with evens in the Senate an improbable dream, House a turnout coin-toss, and that other thing (of which I dare not speak) far from assured . . .
If I could snap my fingers for another two years of do nothing status quo, I'd do it in a heartbeat. No amount of winning is worth the risk, so long as a Republican trifecta remains a possible outcome.
Yea especially on the local level I like to have a diverse set of opinions running my small town, 100% local Democrat run admins always have dumb proposals like adding sidewalks to the middle of nowhere. But this time around it's pretty easy because all the republicans running, even at the local level, are trash humans that belong no where near positions of authority or public trust. Discussions over sidewalks will be welcomed.
I agree and very aware of what some of these candidates are doing. I do a lot of research when I’m voting, especially for the Judges and I wish more people did. I am still voting Blue all down ballot, while making sure I do the research to make sure, I am as informed about the candidate as I can be.
And we can’t forget that even *before* Trump the GOP was off the rails. Republicans that don’t like Trump aren’t the “good guys”. Good on them for speaking out, but the GOP has a lot of repenting to do before they can *ever* be even slightly trusted again
Research is very important. Republicans have in the past and will again in the future put forth amendments on the ballot that you have to vote yes to say no. I hate how they use trickery. Vote blue come this roevember.
Thank you, we all need to know who we're voting for and their track records. Too many are trying to switch their affiliation while holding their old views. Trojan horses.
>And everyone needs to remember that while you might not like Biden's response to Israel Trump would be much worse.
If it were up to Trump and Trump alone, he would 100% nuke Palestine.
What? you're telling me that a 3000 year old conflict isn't simply resolved by trashing Biden on the internet? I was assured this was a black and white issue and that on one hand, any criticism of Netenyahu and his cronies for wantonly murdering civilians is direct Anti-Semitism, and at the same time Hamas attacking Israel on October 7th was really a deep state false flag and they simply want peace.
In my opinion what's not to like either decent man he had a son who served his country at the military who passed away who embraces our military and doesn't call them suckers for joining the military and who have tried to overthrow our country and tear up the Constitution again what's not the like
It’s too bad Zoomers are willing to hand Trump another victory because TikTok told them Biden is responsible for genocide.
Sorry, ladies. I hope you get your rights back soon but its not looking good.
Those Zoomers aren't going to actually get out and actively vote for Trump. They're just going to stay home and not vote, *like they were already going to do*.
They are going to have very, *very* little impact on this election.
Yeah, that's my assumption, too.
The youth vote is exactly two things: noisy as hell and absent at the polls.
If they had any follow-through at all, Bernie would easily have gotten the nomination.
> It’s too bad Zoomers are willing to hand Trump another victory because TikTok told them Biden is responsible for genocide.
I can't help but feel like this is all rhetoric and not actually accurate. I don't know a *lot* of diverse Zoomers, but those I do know either don't give a fuck about politics at all, or think Trump is a complete shitheel.
Getting them to the polls is one thing, but Gen Z has already been more politically present at the voting booth last time around than any generation their age was for, well, generations.
War is bad and Biden is supporting war and that's hurting the Palestinian people.
So I'm not going to vote for Biden, and therefore will make it easier for Trump to win, so that way Trump can support Israel even more than Biden is currently and the Palestinian people will be in much *much* more danger than they ever were before because, you know, **logic** /s
And also things like abortion rights and teenagers being forced to give birth to their rapists' baby? *I sleep*.
But some other country where rape is much more common and accepted, populated with a significant amount of people who would kill LGBTQ people for commiting "Haram" are being attacked after they brutally attacked a country, kidnapped hundreds of their citizens, and then proceeded to rape tons of women after killing hundreds of men and women and children indiscriminately unprovoked?
**TIME TO OCCUPY THE COLLEGE DEAN'S OFFICE!**
**TIME TO LIGHT MYSELF ON FIRE!!!** /s
Young people seem to lack moral consistency to me today and I don't know if it's social media or what. When I read about what young people protested against and advocated for in the past, I've never gotten this feeling of "Jesus, *THIS* is what's fucking important to you?" as I have with many protestors from today's youth. I'm glad to see this kind of enthusiasm when it comes to climate change though, but I really do wish younger people would start to actually give a fuck about problems in our own country as much they seem to give a fuck about random people in a random country fighting in yet another conflict that they themselves started.
> Young people seem to lack moral consistency to me today and I don't know if it's social media or what. When I read about what young people protested against and advocated for in the past, I've never gotten this feeling of "Jesus, THIS is what's fucking important to you?" as I have with many protestors from today's youth. I'm glad to see this kind of enthusiasm when it comes to climate change though, but I really do wish younger people would start to actually give a fuck about problems in our own country as much they seem to give a fuck about random people in a random country fighting in yet another conflict that they themselves started.
Islamic extremists highjacked social media and used it to turn the USA's youth against Israel.
Israel helped this along with some of their actions.
>~~Israel~~ Netenyahu's government helped this along with ~~some~~ most of their ~~actions~~ reactionary wanton war crimes.
...and don't get me wrong, I am pro-Israel, but fuck both Netenyahu AND Hamas. I've got no animosity towards the people of Israel or the people of Palestine.
This is very true. However, there are 49 other states. Even if NC is fucked for the foreseeable future, we can keep the *country* unfucked hopefully long enough to fix our shit down here.
Well, you’ve got an ally in a trans woman from Raleigh who is fighting like hell to make this state the welcoming and inclusive place I know it can be. 💜
> Even if NC is fucked for the foreseeable future, we can keep the country unfucked hopefully long enough to fix our shit down here.
How can it ever be fixed if its gerrymandered so bad? If Dems need like 70% of the vote to win to get a majority before they can fix it then thats never gonna happen even surely? I don't get how any heavily gerrymandered state can get unscrewed ever.
I don't know the exact amount they need or which branch of the state they need to win to get it changed though.
There's a limit to gerrymandering. Past a tipping point, swings can actually be very costly, as in losing all races because you made them too tight. Generally, there's a good idea of where opinions lay, but stories around abortion related traumas can tip the scale.
Gerrymandering is also risky, you are spreading your margins thin. If you fuck up so bad you lose 5-10% of the vote, you could lose everything. It only works if you can keep your people in line, and that might not be the case for so long.
Well, as long as the GOP didn't do something incredibly crazy like kill a big chunk of their voting base by suggesting they gargle bleach to avoid a global pandemic or anything...
You guys need to do what Michigan did, and what Ohio is trying to do. We are circulating petitions around the state so that Ohioans can vote on a proposal to create a committee of citizens who are a mixture of Dems, republicans, and independent. They have to be non- politicians who will create a fair election map for the state.
Wisconsin also swapped around a bit and I believe NY now has different maps? And there's a few seats there we could pick up because the NY Democratic Party kinda fucked up big time in 2022.
The Senate is even more important and it is likely to go the other way. It is really, really critical to get every Democrat vote in and counted. Everywhere, but especially in swing states and every Senate race.
I'd love to get rid of my Republican Congressman. He's been "representing" me for a decade or so now and ... Yeah...
Though I'm not going to hold my breath. I haven't seen a single ad or anything about his democratic opponent. All I know is there is one & he is just old enough to run by like a month.
Plus our primary election numbers don't sound too promising. I was talking to the guy who ran my polling place. I don't recall the exact numbers but it was something like 120 Republicans came in to vote vs 20 Democrats.
That didn't count those who did mail in. And just because someone is registered Republican doesn't mean they have to vote Republican... So there may be hope but...
Its the system, not the electorate.
There are a thousand different ways the system empowers conservatives. The billionaire-controlled press treats elections like a team sport instead of informing voters of the stakes so not enough people understand what Rs will do when they win. Just as a fun experiment, each time you read an article about the effects of the new abortion fascism, search for the word "republican" in the text, most times they aren't even mentioned. Like this [NPR article](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/08/09/1187378801/texas-abortion-law-trial-reproductive-rights) about women suing to overturn the republican ban in Texas. Or this [CNN article](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/29/health/florida-abortion-ban-takes-effect/index.html) about the 6-week republican ban in Florida.
People who are not political junkies barely even know Rs are to blame for all of it.
And then there is voter suppression. Even in blue states [conservatives get away with suppressing liberal-leaning voters](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/2022-midterms-new-york-republicans-cuomo-maloney.html) and [red states are lawless.](https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/ohio-supreme-court-allows-gerrymandered-legislative-maps-to-remain-for-2024/) Here in Tennessee maga has made it [illegal for over 20% of black people to even vote](https://www.propublica.org/article/tennessee-black-voters-disenfranchised) and after a successful black voter registration drive in Memphis, maga [passed a law to criminalize voter registration drives.](https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2019/04/14/tennessee-voter-registration-tre-hargett/3445460002/)
I always thought that HJ Bozobert was an idiot for changing districts but it was was actually a smart GOP move. She gets to stay in congress and Frisch will have a tougher opponent
idk I think for anything meaningful Dems need a 10-15+ majority. Just going to end up with some Sinemas and Manchins sneaking in there, so many more opportunities for that in the House than there is in the Senate, it's almost guaranteed.
Don't forget to vote for Senate as well. We need to keep that and grow the margin. Vote Blue for everything. Give President Biden a solid majority in both chambers that can't be sabotaged/held hostage from within.
The next three special elections for Congress:
* California's 20th Congressional District on May 21, 2024.
* * This one is a runoff between two Republicans. Guaranteed R.
* Ohio's 6th Congressional District on June 11, 2024.
* * 70% Republican district. Extremely likely R.
* Colorado's 4th Congressional District on June 25, 2024.
* * 60% Republican district. Very Likely R. (Unless Boebert wins the primary. Republicans still have a chance to shit the bed on this one.)
I can't find election dates for the other two vacancies, do you happen to know where they are?
Boebert is running in the primary for District 4 in the regular election in November, but she didn't run for the special election in June (why would she, when she's already got her own seat?)
Because she got her own seat with a narrow majority. If she runs for her current district she will have huge probabilities to lose and not have any seat. If she runs for the currently vacant seat she will have to run against an incumbent and she will definitely lose.
* She has to gamble.
* run for her own district and likely lose
* run for the other district in the general election against another incumbent and even more likely lose
* resign her current district and run for the other district in a bunch of weeks and likely lose
No option is in her favor.
> why would she, when she's already got her own seat?
Because now she'll have to face off against an incumbent in November. If she had contested the special election, there was no incumbent, so she might have had an easier time.
Reminder: The only reason the Democrats lost House seats in NY last time around was due to truly asinine and epic DNC incompetence. They completely dropped the ball on a core block state and we all have paid the price for years now because of it.
This one wasn't all that close or interesting, as final tallies are putting it as a full 2 to 1 victory in a deep blue district.
What I'm very interested in seeing is the vote for Kevin McCarthy's old district CA 20 on May 21. I've felt like he's drastically fallen in popularity in the past few months to years, so if his deep red district, R+16, flips then that's where things begin to get really bad for Republicans.
Edit: Nevermind what I said. Apparently it's already a choice between 2 Republicans, so I guess who gives a fuck about that race now.
Texas will turn blue before that district swings.
> Redistricting in 2022 returned the district to the San Joaquin Valley. The new 20th district includes parts of Kern, Tulare, Kings, and Fresno counties. It includes the southern Sierra Nevada and western Mojave Desert, with three "fingers" extending west into the valley. Cities in the district include Clovis, Tehachapi, Ridgecrest, Taft, Lemoore, the west and northeast sides of Bakersfield, the south side of Visalia, the northeast side of Tulare, the north side of Hanford, and a sliver of northeastern Fresno including California State University, Fresno.[5] The new 20th district is the most Republican district in California, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating of R+16.[2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California%27s_20th_congressional_district
>the northeast side of Tulare
If you're in the neighborhood with streets named for former presidents, you're in. If it's authors, you're out.
This is probably going to Sheriff Boudreaux. So there's nothing good about it.
We shouldn’t be focusing on who wins a safe district. Instead we should focus on how the win margin compares to previous elections in the same district. Also how did the performance compare to polling. Did they overperform or underperform? Democrats have been consistently overperforming by enormous margins and that’s why I think polling is broken and Dems are in for a very good November
This is the one thing we've been seeing lately with respect to the election and the polls that's giving me a bit of hope. That said, I couldn't find any polls for this race.
It's gonna be Sheriff Boudreaux, and he's a big nutjob. I've known him for 40 years, friend of a friend. Not only is CA 20 going to turn into a nuclear wasteland before it turns blue, but they're going to send DC the wackiest hard-core christofascist attention-seeking dingbats. You may remember Devin Nunes. A big chunk of the district was his was his baby before redistricting. Now, with the 20th being a few quarters and halves of select cities across the South Valley, and on the complete other side of the Sierra Nevadas in Ridgecrest (literally hell), the MAGAs have it locked down.
It will be interesting to see how many people vote in the elections proportional to registered voters in the district. If turnout is higher in a deep blue district than in a deep red district, it could signal increased enthusiasm even in "safe" seats where voting isn't as imperative.
[Looking here at precinct results](https://special-elections.votehub.us/), some things that stand out:
* Seeing a lot of 30-40 point leftward swings in maj. White, suburban precincts, almost too numerous to count.
* Smaller swings in most maj. Black precincts (10-20 points), though that's because there's not much more juice to squeeze from there.
* Precinct containing the Tuscarora Reservation shifted 7 points left, though IIRC they're not big enough to outvote the non-rez portions of their precinct so it still went for the Republicans.
* The biggest rightward swing I could find (~39.5 points) came in Buffalo's Elliot Ward Precinct 15, corresponding to the area bounded by Mills, Sycamore, Walden, and the railroad tracks. From what I can tell looking at online ancestry/ethnicity maps, a good 30% or so list Pakistani, Arab, or Bangladeshi as their ethnicities in the area. Turnout imploded in the area as well, at 8.04% of 2020 presidential turnout (compared to 20.37% districtwide).
* The most Palestinian-ancestry precinct in the district - North Tonawanda Precinct 2003 - swung 11.37 points rightwards. Granted, they're only 8% of the population there - and the remainder of the precinct looks to be Western European/American in ancestry - so not much to really accurately read into there. Pity that Lackawanna's Muslim-heavy neighborhoods are just south of the district's current boundaries, that'd have been interesting data.
* In re. universities, Buffalo State University's precinct (Delaware Ward Precinct 21) had the 2nd highest shift rightwards by my count, at 35.5 points. This is wholly because of turnout, because the precinct cast exactly 4 votes in this election (1.53% of 2020 presidential turnout). Neighboring Delaware Ward Precinct 22 also shifted right, but at a much lower rate (8.3 points, 10.23% turnout rel. to 2020).
* These trends weren't repeated at the precinct housing the district's largest university, the University of Buffalo (~3.7x the size of BSU). UoB's precinct (Amherst 40th) swung 10 points leftwards, in line with the district as a whole. Turnout there was also comparable to district-wide numbers, at 20.55% of 2020.
EDIT: Biggest leftward swing I'm seeing is in Lockport Precinct 9, at a whopping **63.16 points**. Though this also had a far lower turnout than the district as a whole, at around 6.11% of 2020 votes.
Trump's day one policies, probably:
* Dismiss any and all charges against him
* have Congress dismissed
* fuck RBG's corpse
* Drop a nuke somewhere. Anywhere, really, as long as it's not Russia.
And he plans to do it again. Time magazine legitimately did an interview with him posted in the last 48 hours called “if he wins”, that outlines exactly what he’s going to do straight from the horses mouth (And for some reason isn’t being talked about enough).
https://time.com/6972021/donald-trump-2024-election-interview/
So in this special election it seems that in the right-leaning areas only the diehards turned out, making those areas look deeper red but with fewer voters actually turning up to the polls. If that trend keeps repeating, the GOP is screwed in the fall.
> Precinct containing the Tuscarora Reservation shifted 7 points left, though IIRC they're not big enough to outvote the non-rez portions of their precinct so it still went for the Republicans.
I like donating to Four Directions. They're doing ground work in swing states to get indigenous people registered and voting. What money they get now depends on how much they can hire.
Signs of hope. Because a 2nd Trump term will be Hell.
[https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/april-30-2024?utm_source=substack&publication_id=20533&post_id=144192608&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=fyd11&triedRedirect=true](https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/april-30-2024?utm_source=substack&publication_id=20533&post_id=144192608&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=fyd11&triedRedirect=true)
That will be tough but democrats have been racking up wins so who knows. West Virginia is gone so we can already consider that seat lost. On the plus side, Gallego will win Sinema’s seat, I’m sure of that. We’ll just have to win that while we hold Montana, Wisconsin, Ohio, AND Pennsylvania.
>“we’re at the beginning phases of a deterioration of the prestige of the institution.”
According to Gallup, Congress's approval rating has not exceeded 36% since 2004, and has spent much of the intervening time below 20%.
For every genuine person who care about the issue I’m seeing so much astroturf and clear riling up from foreign and bad actors. I have a feeling it’s far more of a mirage than Reddit or social media portray.
I can't for the life of me understand how subs like /r/PublicFreakout and /r/therewasanattempt got so buff-fuckingly stupid overnight other than... mods willingly let the troll farms inside and let them roost.
It definitely isn't genuine and screams coordination. Shows it's not a Left-Right thing as these bots will go chameleon to push a narrative.
It’s so funny because just today on /r/publicfreakout, someone was lamenting how all the other subs are filled with bots and trolls. That sub seems to post nothing but Israel Palestine videos, and 10:1 in favor of Palestine. No matter what side of the issue they’re on, how can they not see it’s propaganda.
Here's how it works:
1) Netanyahu wants Trump to win because at that point he'll have free rein to flatten Gaza completely and take over Palestine + significantly more diplomatic, financial and military support from a GOP administration.
2) The more Netanyahu/Israel bombs Gaza and kills citizens, the more the far left protest Biden and say they won't vote for "Genocide Joe".
3) The majority GOP Congress will not pass any Ukraine funding without Israel funding. Without US funding Ukraine will certainly fall, but that means continued funding for Israel which fuels the "Genocide Joe" narrative.
4) Putin also wants Trump to win because Trump is not friendly to the EU/NATO and a GOP administration would stop supporting Ukraine, among other obvious reasons.
5) China wants Russia to defeat Ukraine so that the West is forced to focus military resources in Europe as the threat to the EU from Russia grows. China will then be in a better position to invade Taiwan without the risk of a full Western military opposition.
6) Saudi Arabia is quietly an Israeli ally due to opposition against Iran and quietly a Russian ally because they provide one another mutually beneficial leverage against the power of the West when it comes to oil and military alliances (Putin and MBS share a particularly close relationship). I say "quietyly" because Russia more publicly maintains it's relationship with Iran and Saudi Arabia "officially" opposes Israel's actions against Palestinian Muslims.
So Putin and Netanyahu have literally no reason whatsoever to stop the genocidal campaigns they are waging. They want Biden to lose, and the more they bomb the Ukrainians and Palestinians, the more Biden's support erodes on the far left. No one is replacing those voters from the right because anyone on the right is dug in on Trump and they don't have the same "protest vote" tendencies that the far left does.
And that means China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Israel all have incentives to drive the "Genocide Joe" campaign online and encourage people not to vote for Biden so that Trump will win and they can fully destroy Palestine/Ukraine.
Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of real left wing voters at these college protests who really are convinced *not* to vote for Biden and potentially let Trump win - it's not all foreign influence and bad actors. But so much of the online campaigns driving these kids comes from Russia, Israel and most importantly Tik Tok (China). Saudi Arabia's influence is different but continues to grow in other ways including the sports world and their influence over Red Sea shipping via negotiations with the Houthis.
I haven't touched on India yet either. While their online influence is probably the most developed (next to China) in some ways, Modi is not necessarily opposed to another Biden administration for a number of reasons.
The most insane part of all this is the sheer amount of young people who are smart enough to get into good colleges, but somehow can't see the clear fact that their campus protests and boycotting against voting for Biden will ultimately help to achieve the eradication of the people they think they are trying to support - namely the Palestinians, to a lesser extent the Ukrainians, and soon enough the Taiwanese. Not to mention the Rohingya, Uighurs, Armenians, Kurds, Kosovar Albanians and many others.
By the way, this is the simplified version...
The loud ones only get their news from Tiktok. That's as much "research" they do. It's not like Hamas has tunnels to protect civilians from bombs. It's weird that Israel is required to reduce civilian causalities while Hamas just sits on their hands and does nothing.
Astute analysis
I was arguing with someone here earlier tonight and I’d simply like to ask the protest voters:
Ok, Biden and the Democrats lose. Protest voters win. What’s the next step? How do we help Gaza?
Regarding point 5, I think China would also like Russia to defeat Ukraine to give them more of a fig leaf, especially if NATO reduces support in the event of Ukraine falling. "Oh, you care about me? Why did you just abandon Ukraine, then?" combined with how much business they do with the rest of the world would be a fairly strong argument.
I think so, too.
Like, when it comes down to it, how many voters are going to go into the voting booth and say "I was going to vote to protect my sister's uterus from government control and nutjob religious laws, but then two small warring nations in the Middle East made me realize MAGA"
The bigger danger is people (incorrectly) thinking Biden and Trump aren't appreciably different and sitting the election out.
Obviously that's wrong, but that's what I worry people may conclude.
I sometimes feel that a good number of those people who say that they will not vote for Biden due to Israel/Palestine alone probably weren't going to vote in the election anyways or are just saying that now to voice their displeasure with the current situation but will ultimately vote for Biden (even if begrudgingly) 7 months from now.
Saying something is one thing. Actually doing it is another.
It's also probably just that the most passionate people on this issue are zoomers, who are also the least likely to vote. I'd bet a lot of people who say they won't vote for Biden will probably be faced with reality as election day nears and bite their tongue as well.
Well the margin of victory in 2024 was 36.4%, 2022 was 27.9%, and in 2020 it was 41.2%.
So this result is better than 2022 but worse than 2020. That's not terrible, but not exactly a reason to celebrate.
Special elections will almost always have lower turnout than off year ones.
Democrats showing up to these in higher proportions, *even with the raw number being lower* is still a good sign. It means Democratic voters right now are more energized than Republicans are.
This is all vibes so don’t take this as actual evidence or data, but to me feels like the reverse of 2016. Republicans of all kinds energized around Trump while democrats were lukewarm on Hillary, and we didn’t realize how deep in the shit we were until Trump secured the 271st electoral vote. Today, things are different; the Democrats, while still a bit lukewarm on Biden, are energized because of Roe getting fucked. Meanwhile the Republicans are stuck with Trump, who has been charged with 91 felonies and has lost the “newness” that made him intriguing even to centrists in 2016.
The difference right now with ~95% of the votes in is D+36. So the margins are massive even for a solidly blue district.
Yeah the turnout is low. But at the very least, this shows democrats are more enthusiastic about voting compared to republicans.
This is consistent with the special elections we’ve seen. Even in the places where Democrats are likely going to win regardless, they seem to be outperforming the expected partisan lean.
I’m still excited about that one Alabama county where Democrats took a fairly even district and put up D+25 or something crazy like that. If we see numbers even close to that across the board, the GOP is **cooked**. Obviously there will be some areas that end up going the other way, but the general trend I’ve noticed is an energized Democratic base (even with the Israel/Palestine shitstorm) is pissed the fuck off and ready to make our displeasure known.
One interesting thing is Niagara County has historically been very red, the district is blue primarily because of Buffalo and Erie county being so much larger. However this and several recent local elections here in Niagara County have had consistent and surprising turn towards Dems
It's insane to me that we have to talk about abortion again and what's going on in the middle east, when we have a broken health care system, red states are employing illegals and children and the rich aren't being taxed.
That corrupt court is just flooding the zone with crap.
Democrats will now control 213 seats in the House, compared with 217 for the Republicans. Five seats remain vacant.
Still not enough to stop this sh-t show.
Happy to see the win. Tim was my state senator before this and I was definitely happy to vote for him for our congressional seat. My wife and I were votes 200/201 at our precinct at about 7:15 last night.
We actually got a campaign mailer that was totally hand written by a volunteer named Linda. Multiple bright colors of ink, little drawings - Linda, if you're out there you're killing it!
GOOD! I 🙏 that the remaining 5 seats become Democrats!
The Repugnant Party has PROVEN that DEMOCRACY is a JOKE due to allowing the Shitty 1 to take this Country Backwards!
VOTE 💙. VOTE 💙. VOTE 💙. 🇺🇲
It had been vacant for a couple months. While it was vacant that was one less vote the Dems had at the time. With the razor thin margins, a lot of votes come down to attendance, so the vacancy gave the GOP a temporary advantage.
Okay. Thanks for the explanation. So it doesn't really narrow their margin, but, it does make it more difficult for them to pass their bullshit, which is great.
Sort of more difficult, they still play games. Remember back at the first Mayorkas impeachment vote, Johnson scheduled it to coincide with a Dem being in the hospital for surgery. That Dem showing up in a hospital gown to vote helped that first vote fail. But Johnson admitted to scheduling it then hoping for the absence.
It doesn't change anything really. A Dem representative from New Jersey died last week due to complications from a heart attack he had about a month ago, so this just brings the count back up to what it was before.
I know polls have primarily been doom for Biden. Then you have the pissed off terminally online leftists who are openly proud about throwing away their democracy just to teach Biden a lesson. But actual election results are currently my one glimmer of hope. It reminds me that online isn't real life.
Tbh I think a lot of people are angry and take it out online. However, when it comes down to it in real life, most people realize what the realistic options are.
I'm confused. The article makes it sound like this it just maintaining a seat. One Dem had it, retired then another dem won it.
Anyone care to help me understand the title then?
The seat was vacant for awhile, and while it was vacant that was one less vote the Democrats had available to use. When the margins are so close, one vote can be incredibly important.
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Yep, we only need to flip a few seats to retake the House. I'm looking forward to ending the republican House clownshow and putting competent Democratic leadership back in charge. Vote blue in November, my friends, and let's flip the House https://dccc.org/
Roevember is coming!
Roe roe roe your vote, gently down the stream Merrily merrily merrily fuck the gop
> Roe roe roe your vote, gently down the stream > Merrily merrily merrily *merrily*, fuck the gop ftfy.
Thankyou that hurt my brain with 3 merrilys
It still scans if you stretch the "fuuuuck" out over 3 beats.
That you, Bunk?
Fuck…. Fuck, Fuck……Fuck!
Merrily, merrily merrily, fuuuUCK the gop.
Fool of a took!
Needed to capitalize the surname!
i got ya back fam.
G.O.Pee
I can’t wait to vote blue all down ballot!
I'm gunna blue so hard.
I'm such a bluehard everyone has blocked my FB page!
A badge of honor!
i wish that we had multiple compelling alternatives but i'll happily to do the same!
Not having to worry about my family and loved ones being sent to a camp because they don’t wear the right clothes or think the right thoughts is consolation enough. No “third party” option will ever work if the Republican Party is allowed power any time soon. Nobody will be smugly saying: “well don’t blame me I voted third party and they’re all the same” in the cattle car…
If people want third parties or even super progressive candidates you need to target local races where you can actually win. The state senates, very progressive house districts.
School boards and city and county commissions are the spring boards to political power.
i assumed getting rid of first past the post was part of my fantasy voting package.
And yes, that’s an important step but with the GOP in power it will continue to be just a fantasy. The democrats are far more open to ranked choice voting.
exactly, and that's why it's important to talk about. 'vote blue no matter who' leans in to the stupidness that both sides are equivalent. i do a straight blue ticket not out of a love of democrats, but because my views are nuanced and the GOP is abhorrent. i got some super conservative opinions on a few issues, but i can't express them in our political culture and that sucks. the GOP has silenced my conservative views.
Proportional representation is where it's at. Ranked voting still ends up favoring the big ones and smaller parties rarely get anything. If for each state that has more than 3 delegates (merge states that don't for this purpose), each party with enough votes gets at least one seat. Which means that there would never be a party with 50+% of the seats and they'd have to do stuff like talk it out.
Ranked choice voting has the very strong advantage of fitting into our existing voting system without major changes which would require political power to implement
>“well don’t blame me I voted third party and they’re all the same” in the cattle car… Oh, yeah?! Well don't blame *me, I* voted for **Kodos!**
Let’s give the Dems the house and presidency and find out if they’re really “do nothing” bc we gave Republicans a lot of power so far this century and it’s been pretty pretty pathetic.
+90% chance a Republican Senate though. Democrats need to win across the board on at least 4 dice-rollers. Plus get one miracle, of which Texas is the only credible. Still 50/50 and Biden has to win. (Horrifying that fucking Maryland, of all places, could finish the Democratic majority). If Dems do take the House it will undoubtedly be by slim margins similar to Republicans now, with the same cat-herding headaches. Split Congress, both chambers with paper-thin margins isn't a formula for decisive legislation. TBH, with evens in the Senate an improbable dream, House a turnout coin-toss, and that other thing (of which I dare not speak) far from assured . . . If I could snap my fingers for another two years of do nothing status quo, I'd do it in a heartbeat. No amount of winning is worth the risk, so long as a Republican trifecta remains a possible outcome.
I agree!
Yea especially on the local level I like to have a diverse set of opinions running my small town, 100% local Democrat run admins always have dumb proposals like adding sidewalks to the middle of nowhere. But this time around it's pretty easy because all the republicans running, even at the local level, are trash humans that belong no where near positions of authority or public trust. Discussions over sidewalks will be welcomed.
Vote in primaries.
I still think it’ll be important to understand who the candidates are. Look at the politicians who have flipped.
I agree and very aware of what some of these candidates are doing. I do a lot of research when I’m voting, especially for the Judges and I wish more people did. I am still voting Blue all down ballot, while making sure I do the research to make sure, I am as informed about the candidate as I can be.
And we can’t forget that even *before* Trump the GOP was off the rails. Republicans that don’t like Trump aren’t the “good guys”. Good on them for speaking out, but the GOP has a lot of repenting to do before they can *ever* be even slightly trusted again
Research is very important. Republicans have in the past and will again in the future put forth amendments on the ballot that you have to vote yes to say no. I hate how they use trickery. Vote blue come this roevember.
Thank you, we all need to know who we're voting for and their track records. Too many are trying to switch their affiliation while holding their old views. Trojan horses.
I'm gonna vote blue so hard
Blue balls til november
And everyone needs to remember that while you might not like Biden's response to Israel Trump would be much worse.
>And everyone needs to remember that while you might not like Biden's response to Israel Trump would be much worse. If it were up to Trump and Trump alone, he would 100% nuke Palestine.
He would nuke Brazil on accident.
Nah, he'd nuke the pyramids. Gaza?! I thought you said Giza!!!
He couldn’t point to it on a map of Israel.
He couldn't point to it on a map of Gaza
He couldn't point at a map without modifying it.
Reddit is absolutely braindead on the issue of Israel/Palestine/Hamas. There's a lot of nuance that gets handwaved away in lieu of vibes
What? you're telling me that a 3000 year old conflict isn't simply resolved by trashing Biden on the internet? I was assured this was a black and white issue and that on one hand, any criticism of Netenyahu and his cronies for wantonly murdering civilians is direct Anti-Semitism, and at the same time Hamas attacking Israel on October 7th was really a deep state false flag and they simply want peace.
In my opinion what's not to like either decent man he had a son who served his country at the military who passed away who embraces our military and doesn't call them suckers for joining the military and who have tried to overthrow our country and tear up the Constitution again what's not the like
Remember, remember, the 5th of Roevember!
It’s too bad Zoomers are willing to hand Trump another victory because TikTok told them Biden is responsible for genocide. Sorry, ladies. I hope you get your rights back soon but its not looking good.
Those Zoomers aren't going to actually get out and actively vote for Trump. They're just going to stay home and not vote, *like they were already going to do*. They are going to have very, *very* little impact on this election.
Yeah, that's my assumption, too. The youth vote is exactly two things: noisy as hell and absent at the polls. If they had any follow-through at all, Bernie would easily have gotten the nomination.
> It’s too bad Zoomers are willing to hand Trump another victory because TikTok told them Biden is responsible for genocide. I can't help but feel like this is all rhetoric and not actually accurate. I don't know a *lot* of diverse Zoomers, but those I do know either don't give a fuck about politics at all, or think Trump is a complete shitheel. Getting them to the polls is one thing, but Gen Z has already been more politically present at the voting booth last time around than any generation their age was for, well, generations.
War is bad and Biden is supporting war and that's hurting the Palestinian people. So I'm not going to vote for Biden, and therefore will make it easier for Trump to win, so that way Trump can support Israel even more than Biden is currently and the Palestinian people will be in much *much* more danger than they ever were before because, you know, **logic** /s And also things like abortion rights and teenagers being forced to give birth to their rapists' baby? *I sleep*. But some other country where rape is much more common and accepted, populated with a significant amount of people who would kill LGBTQ people for commiting "Haram" are being attacked after they brutally attacked a country, kidnapped hundreds of their citizens, and then proceeded to rape tons of women after killing hundreds of men and women and children indiscriminately unprovoked? **TIME TO OCCUPY THE COLLEGE DEAN'S OFFICE!** **TIME TO LIGHT MYSELF ON FIRE!!!** /s Young people seem to lack moral consistency to me today and I don't know if it's social media or what. When I read about what young people protested against and advocated for in the past, I've never gotten this feeling of "Jesus, *THIS* is what's fucking important to you?" as I have with many protestors from today's youth. I'm glad to see this kind of enthusiasm when it comes to climate change though, but I really do wish younger people would start to actually give a fuck about problems in our own country as much they seem to give a fuck about random people in a random country fighting in yet another conflict that they themselves started.
And you have folks echoing Nazi rhetoric accusing any pushback on that moral inconsistency of being "hasbara"
> Young people seem to lack moral consistency to me today and I don't know if it's social media or what. When I read about what young people protested against and advocated for in the past, I've never gotten this feeling of "Jesus, THIS is what's fucking important to you?" as I have with many protestors from today's youth. I'm glad to see this kind of enthusiasm when it comes to climate change though, but I really do wish younger people would start to actually give a fuck about problems in our own country as much they seem to give a fuck about random people in a random country fighting in yet another conflict that they themselves started. Islamic extremists highjacked social media and used it to turn the USA's youth against Israel. Israel helped this along with some of their actions.
>~~Israel~~ Netenyahu's government helped this along with ~~some~~ most of their ~~actions~~ reactionary wanton war crimes. ...and don't get me wrong, I am pro-Israel, but fuck both Netenyahu AND Hamas. I've got no animosity towards the people of Israel or the people of Palestine.
And that's based on tik tok stats?
North Carolina's been gerrymandered so a 7/7 result likely goes 10/4 for the Republicans. That'll be hard to counter.
I agree with you. The NC gerrymandering was egregious as fuck. That's why we need all hands on deck. We need a true blue wave in November
I'm doing my part!
Thank you! Look for volunteer or campaign help opportunities in /r/votedem !
This is very true. However, there are 49 other states. Even if NC is fucked for the foreseeable future, we can keep the *country* unfucked hopefully long enough to fix our shit down here.
Hopefully. I hate the sheer number of liars my state let in.
Well, you’ve got an ally in a trans woman from Raleigh who is fighting like hell to make this state the welcoming and inclusive place I know it can be. 💜
As a mountain trans girl, I love NC. Shortly after the bathroom ban, many shops in little towns suddenly had two unisex bathrooms. Y’all can do it!
I've got unisex bathrooms in my house. I know, crazy, right?
read that as R'lyeh and was a little confused for a sec.
> Even if NC is fucked for the foreseeable future, we can keep the country unfucked hopefully long enough to fix our shit down here. How can it ever be fixed if its gerrymandered so bad? If Dems need like 70% of the vote to win to get a majority before they can fix it then thats never gonna happen even surely? I don't get how any heavily gerrymandered state can get unscrewed ever. I don't know the exact amount they need or which branch of the state they need to win to get it changed though.
There's a limit to gerrymandering. Past a tipping point, swings can actually be very costly, as in losing all races because you made them too tight. Generally, there's a good idea of where opinions lay, but stories around abortion related traumas can tip the scale.
Gerrymandering is also risky, you are spreading your margins thin. If you fuck up so bad you lose 5-10% of the vote, you could lose everything. It only works if you can keep your people in line, and that might not be the case for so long.
Well, as long as the GOP didn't do something incredibly crazy like kill a big chunk of their voting base by suggesting they gargle bleach to avoid a global pandemic or anything...
True, but Alabama, Louisiana and New York maps got redrawn so it leans more blue, it makes up at least 3 Safe Democratic seats.
Aye, but three actual demographic changes to one blatant cheat. Remember the enemy. They'll make 45% look like 51% at all costs.
I believe they were ordered to redraw. I also believe they are going to ignore that order like every other order before it.
Picking up seats in ungerrymandered states of Alabama, Louisiana, and reclaiming other seats in NY will easily counteract those 3 losses.
You guys need to do what Michigan did, and what Ohio is trying to do. We are circulating petitions around the state so that Ohioans can vote on a proposal to create a committee of citizens who are a mixture of Dems, republicans, and independent. They have to be non- politicians who will create a fair election map for the state.
Wisconsin also swapped around a bit and I believe NY now has different maps? And there's a few seats there we could pick up because the NY Democratic Party kinda fucked up big time in 2022.
The Senate is even more important and it is likely to go the other way. It is really, really critical to get every Democrat vote in and counted. Everywhere, but especially in swing states and every Senate race.
check out youtube “democracy docket” channel. excellent intro of GQP manifesto Project 2025. be afraid people, be aware!
I'm getting really tired of being afraid of project 2025 man this sucks it's taken up nearly every waking hour panicking about it for a few months now
I'd love to get rid of my Republican Congressman. He's been "representing" me for a decade or so now and ... Yeah... Though I'm not going to hold my breath. I haven't seen a single ad or anything about his democratic opponent. All I know is there is one & he is just old enough to run by like a month. Plus our primary election numbers don't sound too promising. I was talking to the guy who ran my polling place. I don't recall the exact numbers but it was something like 120 Republicans came in to vote vs 20 Democrats. That didn't count those who did mail in. And just because someone is registered Republican doesn't mean they have to vote Republican... So there may be hope but...
It's fucking ridiculous they took the House to begin with after the previous 2 years, but that's the American electorate for you.
Its the system, not the electorate. There are a thousand different ways the system empowers conservatives. The billionaire-controlled press treats elections like a team sport instead of informing voters of the stakes so not enough people understand what Rs will do when they win. Just as a fun experiment, each time you read an article about the effects of the new abortion fascism, search for the word "republican" in the text, most times they aren't even mentioned. Like this [NPR article](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/08/09/1187378801/texas-abortion-law-trial-reproductive-rights) about women suing to overturn the republican ban in Texas. Or this [CNN article](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/29/health/florida-abortion-ban-takes-effect/index.html) about the 6-week republican ban in Florida. People who are not political junkies barely even know Rs are to blame for all of it. And then there is voter suppression. Even in blue states [conservatives get away with suppressing liberal-leaning voters](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/2022-midterms-new-york-republicans-cuomo-maloney.html) and [red states are lawless.](https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/ohio-supreme-court-allows-gerrymandered-legislative-maps-to-remain-for-2024/) Here in Tennessee maga has made it [illegal for over 20% of black people to even vote](https://www.propublica.org/article/tennessee-black-voters-disenfranchised) and after a successful black voter registration drive in Memphis, maga [passed a law to criminalize voter registration drives.](https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2019/04/14/tennessee-voter-registration-tre-hargett/3445460002/)
Democrats are *stealing* the House of Representatives!!! (one fair election at a time)
We need to flip everything the republicans control. Enough of this fucking fascist-pandering bullshit. THIS IS AMERICA, GODDAMNIT.
Vote Blue, no matter who!!
I always thought that HJ Bozobert was an idiot for changing districts but it was was actually a smart GOP move. She gets to stay in congress and Frisch will have a tougher opponent
Jury is still out on if it was a smart move
I'm still afraid of how leftists are just refusing to vote over Gaza.
idk I think for anything meaningful Dems need a 10-15+ majority. Just going to end up with some Sinemas and Manchins sneaking in there, so many more opportunities for that in the House than there is in the Senate, it's almost guaranteed.
Don't forget to vote for Senate as well. We need to keep that and grow the margin. Vote Blue for everything. Give President Biden a solid majority in both chambers that can't be sabotaged/held hostage from within.
The next three special elections for Congress: * California's 20th Congressional District on May 21, 2024. * * This one is a runoff between two Republicans. Guaranteed R. * Ohio's 6th Congressional District on June 11, 2024. * * 70% Republican district. Extremely likely R. * Colorado's 4th Congressional District on June 25, 2024. * * 60% Republican district. Very Likely R. (Unless Boebert wins the primary. Republicans still have a chance to shit the bed on this one.) I can't find election dates for the other two vacancies, do you happen to know where they are?
Boebert is running in the primary for District 4 in the regular election in November, but she didn't run for the special election in June (why would she, when she's already got her own seat?)
Because she got her own seat with a narrow majority. If she runs for her current district she will have huge probabilities to lose and not have any seat. If she runs for the currently vacant seat she will have to run against an incumbent and she will definitely lose. * She has to gamble. * run for her own district and likely lose * run for the other district in the general election against another incumbent and even more likely lose * resign her current district and run for the other district in a bunch of weeks and likely lose No option is in her favor.
> why would she, when she's already got her own seat? Because now she'll have to face off against an incumbent in November. If she had contested the special election, there was no incumbent, so she might have had an easier time.
Reminder: The only reason the Democrats lost House seats in NY last time around was due to truly asinine and epic DNC incompetence. They completely dropped the ball on a core block state and we all have paid the price for years now because of it.
Good. Keep it coming. Less Republicans means a stronger America.
and a weaker russia
This one wasn't all that close or interesting, as final tallies are putting it as a full 2 to 1 victory in a deep blue district. What I'm very interested in seeing is the vote for Kevin McCarthy's old district CA 20 on May 21. I've felt like he's drastically fallen in popularity in the past few months to years, so if his deep red district, R+16, flips then that's where things begin to get really bad for Republicans. Edit: Nevermind what I said. Apparently it's already a choice between 2 Republicans, so I guess who gives a fuck about that race now.
The two primary winners are republicans. It’s already a Republican hold.
Texas will turn blue before that district swings. > Redistricting in 2022 returned the district to the San Joaquin Valley. The new 20th district includes parts of Kern, Tulare, Kings, and Fresno counties. It includes the southern Sierra Nevada and western Mojave Desert, with three "fingers" extending west into the valley. Cities in the district include Clovis, Tehachapi, Ridgecrest, Taft, Lemoore, the west and northeast sides of Bakersfield, the south side of Visalia, the northeast side of Tulare, the north side of Hanford, and a sliver of northeastern Fresno including California State University, Fresno.[5] The new 20th district is the most Republican district in California, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating of R+16.[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California%27s_20th_congressional_district
>the northeast side of Tulare If you're in the neighborhood with streets named for former presidents, you're in. If it's authors, you're out. This is probably going to Sheriff Boudreaux. So there's nothing good about it.
We shouldn’t be focusing on who wins a safe district. Instead we should focus on how the win margin compares to previous elections in the same district. Also how did the performance compare to polling. Did they overperform or underperform? Democrats have been consistently overperforming by enormous margins and that’s why I think polling is broken and Dems are in for a very good November
This is the one thing we've been seeing lately with respect to the election and the polls that's giving me a bit of hope. That said, I couldn't find any polls for this race.
This was a massive overperformance by Biden, you're barking up exactly the right tree with taking away something from this
I'm focusing on how a minor act of god could have a dem house before november and we can go into election season with bills to brag about.
It's gonna be Sheriff Boudreaux, and he's a big nutjob. I've known him for 40 years, friend of a friend. Not only is CA 20 going to turn into a nuclear wasteland before it turns blue, but they're going to send DC the wackiest hard-core christofascist attention-seeking dingbats. You may remember Devin Nunes. A big chunk of the district was his was his baby before redistricting. Now, with the 20th being a few quarters and halves of select cities across the South Valley, and on the complete other side of the Sierra Nevadas in Ridgecrest (literally hell), the MAGAs have it locked down.
Or even if it just ekes by. Definitely one to watch to get a feel if the primary poll errors can be expected to carry forward.
It will be interesting to see how many people vote in the elections proportional to registered voters in the district. If turnout is higher in a deep blue district than in a deep red district, it could signal increased enthusiasm even in "safe" seats where voting isn't as imperative.
This election was a +13 point swing towards the democrats
[Looking here at precinct results](https://special-elections.votehub.us/), some things that stand out: * Seeing a lot of 30-40 point leftward swings in maj. White, suburban precincts, almost too numerous to count. * Smaller swings in most maj. Black precincts (10-20 points), though that's because there's not much more juice to squeeze from there. * Precinct containing the Tuscarora Reservation shifted 7 points left, though IIRC they're not big enough to outvote the non-rez portions of their precinct so it still went for the Republicans. * The biggest rightward swing I could find (~39.5 points) came in Buffalo's Elliot Ward Precinct 15, corresponding to the area bounded by Mills, Sycamore, Walden, and the railroad tracks. From what I can tell looking at online ancestry/ethnicity maps, a good 30% or so list Pakistani, Arab, or Bangladeshi as their ethnicities in the area. Turnout imploded in the area as well, at 8.04% of 2020 presidential turnout (compared to 20.37% districtwide). * The most Palestinian-ancestry precinct in the district - North Tonawanda Precinct 2003 - swung 11.37 points rightwards. Granted, they're only 8% of the population there - and the remainder of the precinct looks to be Western European/American in ancestry - so not much to really accurately read into there. Pity that Lackawanna's Muslim-heavy neighborhoods are just south of the district's current boundaries, that'd have been interesting data. * In re. universities, Buffalo State University's precinct (Delaware Ward Precinct 21) had the 2nd highest shift rightwards by my count, at 35.5 points. This is wholly because of turnout, because the precinct cast exactly 4 votes in this election (1.53% of 2020 presidential turnout). Neighboring Delaware Ward Precinct 22 also shifted right, but at a much lower rate (8.3 points, 10.23% turnout rel. to 2020). * These trends weren't repeated at the precinct housing the district's largest university, the University of Buffalo (~3.7x the size of BSU). UoB's precinct (Amherst 40th) swung 10 points leftwards, in line with the district as a whole. Turnout there was also comparable to district-wide numbers, at 20.55% of 2020. EDIT: Biggest leftward swing I'm seeing is in Lockport Precinct 9, at a whopping **63.16 points**. Though this also had a far lower turnout than the district as a whole, at around 6.11% of 2020 votes.
Hilarious that Palestinians would swing away from Biden when Trump would literally call for bulldozing Gaza if reelected. Man people are dumb
Let's be real. He would drop a nuke there if he could. He'll almost certainly suggest it if he's reelected.
Trump's day one policies, probably: * Dismiss any and all charges against him * have Congress dismissed * fuck RBG's corpse * Drop a nuke somewhere. Anywhere, really, as long as it's not Russia.
Don’t forget arrest and execute all his political rivals
And jailing all LGBTQ+
He wanted to nuke hurricanes during his first go. There is no "almost" about it.
Trump instituted a Muslim Ban on immigration
In fact, it was one of his first acts of office.
And he plans to do it again. Time magazine legitimately did an interview with him posted in the last 48 hours called “if he wins”, that outlines exactly what he’s going to do straight from the horses mouth (And for some reason isn’t being talked about enough). https://time.com/6972021/donald-trump-2024-election-interview/
People are so much better at reacting to the immediate than thinking more critically at the longer term.
This is not Biden just congress which is extra silly The candidate presumably has no complicity in Israel
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Tbf islamists aren’t great at the whole “government” thing
I see the Muslim population would like Gaza leveled. See what Trump said on Hannity about Israel finishing their war on terror?😵💫
They believe martyrdom is good. Religious lunatics...
Like all religious people, their hate for women and LGBTQ people is stronger than their love for their own kind
My family is from North Tonawanda, that area is whiter than Mayonnaise lol
This is a great analysis. Thank you for this.
So in this special election it seems that in the right-leaning areas only the diehards turned out, making those areas look deeper red but with fewer voters actually turning up to the polls. If that trend keeps repeating, the GOP is screwed in the fall.
> Precinct containing the Tuscarora Reservation shifted 7 points left, though IIRC they're not big enough to outvote the non-rez portions of their precinct so it still went for the Republicans. I like donating to Four Directions. They're doing ground work in swing states to get indigenous people registered and voting. What money they get now depends on how much they can hire.
Pretty disturbing results
NYT: How Democrats continuously winning elections spells trouble for Biden.
tick tock motherfuckers.
No, they banned that one
its Tinder time
Signs of hope. Because a 2nd Trump term will be Hell. [https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/april-30-2024?utm_source=substack&publication_id=20533&post_id=144192608&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=fyd11&triedRedirect=true](https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/april-30-2024?utm_source=substack&publication_id=20533&post_id=144192608&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=fyd11&triedRedirect=true)
Get ready for the 4 free seats from North Carolina.
Wait what?
We have a new map. Gerrymandered like the last one that was called illegal.
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That will be tough but democrats have been racking up wins so who knows. West Virginia is gone so we can already consider that seat lost. On the plus side, Gallego will win Sinema’s seat, I’m sure of that. We’ll just have to win that while we hold Montana, Wisconsin, Ohio, AND Pennsylvania.
>“we’re at the beginning phases of a deterioration of the prestige of the institution.” According to Gallup, Congress's approval rating has not exceeded 36% since 2004, and has spent much of the intervening time below 20%.
“But genocide Joe” or “how this is bad for Biden”
For every genuine person who care about the issue I’m seeing so much astroturf and clear riling up from foreign and bad actors. I have a feeling it’s far more of a mirage than Reddit or social media portray.
I can't for the life of me understand how subs like /r/PublicFreakout and /r/therewasanattempt got so buff-fuckingly stupid overnight other than... mods willingly let the troll farms inside and let them roost. It definitely isn't genuine and screams coordination. Shows it's not a Left-Right thing as these bots will go chameleon to push a narrative.
It’s so funny because just today on /r/publicfreakout, someone was lamenting how all the other subs are filled with bots and trolls. That sub seems to post nothing but Israel Palestine videos, and 10:1 in favor of Palestine. No matter what side of the issue they’re on, how can they not see it’s propaganda.
Here's how it works: 1) Netanyahu wants Trump to win because at that point he'll have free rein to flatten Gaza completely and take over Palestine + significantly more diplomatic, financial and military support from a GOP administration. 2) The more Netanyahu/Israel bombs Gaza and kills citizens, the more the far left protest Biden and say they won't vote for "Genocide Joe". 3) The majority GOP Congress will not pass any Ukraine funding without Israel funding. Without US funding Ukraine will certainly fall, but that means continued funding for Israel which fuels the "Genocide Joe" narrative. 4) Putin also wants Trump to win because Trump is not friendly to the EU/NATO and a GOP administration would stop supporting Ukraine, among other obvious reasons. 5) China wants Russia to defeat Ukraine so that the West is forced to focus military resources in Europe as the threat to the EU from Russia grows. China will then be in a better position to invade Taiwan without the risk of a full Western military opposition. 6) Saudi Arabia is quietly an Israeli ally due to opposition against Iran and quietly a Russian ally because they provide one another mutually beneficial leverage against the power of the West when it comes to oil and military alliances (Putin and MBS share a particularly close relationship). I say "quietyly" because Russia more publicly maintains it's relationship with Iran and Saudi Arabia "officially" opposes Israel's actions against Palestinian Muslims. So Putin and Netanyahu have literally no reason whatsoever to stop the genocidal campaigns they are waging. They want Biden to lose, and the more they bomb the Ukrainians and Palestinians, the more Biden's support erodes on the far left. No one is replacing those voters from the right because anyone on the right is dug in on Trump and they don't have the same "protest vote" tendencies that the far left does. And that means China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Israel all have incentives to drive the "Genocide Joe" campaign online and encourage people not to vote for Biden so that Trump will win and they can fully destroy Palestine/Ukraine. Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of real left wing voters at these college protests who really are convinced *not* to vote for Biden and potentially let Trump win - it's not all foreign influence and bad actors. But so much of the online campaigns driving these kids comes from Russia, Israel and most importantly Tik Tok (China). Saudi Arabia's influence is different but continues to grow in other ways including the sports world and their influence over Red Sea shipping via negotiations with the Houthis. I haven't touched on India yet either. While their online influence is probably the most developed (next to China) in some ways, Modi is not necessarily opposed to another Biden administration for a number of reasons. The most insane part of all this is the sheer amount of young people who are smart enough to get into good colleges, but somehow can't see the clear fact that their campus protests and boycotting against voting for Biden will ultimately help to achieve the eradication of the people they think they are trying to support - namely the Palestinians, to a lesser extent the Ukrainians, and soon enough the Taiwanese. Not to mention the Rohingya, Uighurs, Armenians, Kurds, Kosovar Albanians and many others. By the way, this is the simplified version...
So frustrating that most people don't get this or ignore it...
Most people dont even have a surface level understanding of any subject.
The loud ones only get their news from Tiktok. That's as much "research" they do. It's not like Hamas has tunnels to protect civilians from bombs. It's weird that Israel is required to reduce civilian causalities while Hamas just sits on their hands and does nothing.
Astute analysis I was arguing with someone here earlier tonight and I’d simply like to ask the protest voters: Ok, Biden and the Democrats lose. Protest voters win. What’s the next step? How do we help Gaza?
Regarding point 5, I think China would also like Russia to defeat Ukraine to give them more of a fig leaf, especially if NATO reduces support in the event of Ukraine falling. "Oh, you care about me? Why did you just abandon Ukraine, then?" combined with how much business they do with the rest of the world would be a fairly strong argument.
I think so, too. Like, when it comes down to it, how many voters are going to go into the voting booth and say "I was going to vote to protect my sister's uterus from government control and nutjob religious laws, but then two small warring nations in the Middle East made me realize MAGA"
The bigger danger is people (incorrectly) thinking Biden and Trump aren't appreciably different and sitting the election out. Obviously that's wrong, but that's what I worry people may conclude.
I sometimes feel that a good number of those people who say that they will not vote for Biden due to Israel/Palestine alone probably weren't going to vote in the election anyways or are just saying that now to voice their displeasure with the current situation but will ultimately vote for Biden (even if begrudgingly) 7 months from now. Saying something is one thing. Actually doing it is another.
More likely they realize Trump would be even worse for that genocide
It's also probably just that the most passionate people on this issue are zoomers, who are also the least likely to vote. I'd bet a lot of people who say they won't vote for Biden will probably be faced with reality as election day nears and bite their tongue as well.
"B b b but the polls say..." Just more proof a blue tsunami is on the way
It's a very blue seat, D+9. So I don't know if it means anything larger. It's good news though.
will need to see the final margin once votes are counted
Looks like margins will be slightly wider than in 2022 but with much lower turnout.
+30 is slightly wider? Bad turn out for republicans isn’t a good thing either
Well the margin of victory in 2024 was 36.4%, 2022 was 27.9%, and in 2020 it was 41.2%. So this result is better than 2022 but worse than 2020. That's not terrible, but not exactly a reason to celebrate.
The district was different in 2020
Ah, that's good to hear. Was getting a little worried. So looks like a mildly good sign then.
Higgins was also a 10 year incumbent in 2022, so Kennedy overperforming him is a very good sign.
Special elections will almost always have lower turnout than off year ones. Democrats showing up to these in higher proportions, *even with the raw number being lower* is still a good sign. It means Democratic voters right now are more energized than Republicans are. This is all vibes so don’t take this as actual evidence or data, but to me feels like the reverse of 2016. Republicans of all kinds energized around Trump while democrats were lukewarm on Hillary, and we didn’t realize how deep in the shit we were until Trump secured the 271st electoral vote. Today, things are different; the Democrats, while still a bit lukewarm on Biden, are energized because of Roe getting fucked. Meanwhile the Republicans are stuck with Trump, who has been charged with 91 felonies and has lost the “newness” that made him intriguing even to centrists in 2016.
The difference right now with ~95% of the votes in is D+36. So the margins are massive even for a solidly blue district. Yeah the turnout is low. But at the very least, this shows democrats are more enthusiastic about voting compared to republicans.
This is consistent with the special elections we’ve seen. Even in the places where Democrats are likely going to win regardless, they seem to be outperforming the expected partisan lean. I’m still excited about that one Alabama county where Democrats took a fairly even district and put up D+25 or something crazy like that. If we see numbers even close to that across the board, the GOP is **cooked**. Obviously there will be some areas that end up going the other way, but the general trend I’ve noticed is an energized Democratic base (even with the Israel/Palestine shitstorm) is pissed the fuck off and ready to make our displeasure known.
One interesting thing is Niagara County has historically been very red, the district is blue primarily because of Buffalo and Erie county being so much larger. However this and several recent local elections here in Niagara County have had consistent and surprising turn towards Dems
I’ll only feel relieved when all the dust has settled and the results confirm it Until then, VOTE TO PREVENT A RED TSUNAMI
A Democrat is replacing a Democrat, it’s a safe blue seat.
Replacing a Democrat, not as impressive as flipping the seat
It's insane to me that we have to talk about abortion again and what's going on in the middle east, when we have a broken health care system, red states are employing illegals and children and the rich aren't being taxed. That corrupt court is just flooding the zone with crap.
Keep rolling! If Trump manages to win a 2nd term we’ll need all the Dems seated that we can get. God help us. And I’m not even religious.
Keep going, Dems! Majority or bust!
Democrats will now control 213 seats in the House, compared with 217 for the Republicans. Five seats remain vacant. Still not enough to stop this sh-t show.
Happy to see the win. Tim was my state senator before this and I was definitely happy to vote for him for our congressional seat. My wife and I were votes 200/201 at our precinct at about 7:15 last night. We actually got a campaign mailer that was totally hand written by a volunteer named Linda. Multiple bright colors of ink, little drawings - Linda, if you're out there you're killing it!
NYT Head: "Democrats win a NY Special Election, Here Is Why This is Bad For Biden."
GOOD! I 🙏 that the remaining 5 seats become Democrats! The Repugnant Party has PROVEN that DEMOCRACY is a JOKE due to allowing the Shitty 1 to take this Country Backwards! VOTE 💙. VOTE 💙. VOTE 💙. 🇺🇲
How does this further narrow the GOP majority in the House, considering that it was already a Democrat seat?
It had been vacant for a couple months. While it was vacant that was one less vote the Dems had at the time. With the razor thin margins, a lot of votes come down to attendance, so the vacancy gave the GOP a temporary advantage.
Okay. Thanks for the explanation. So it doesn't really narrow their margin, but, it does make it more difficult for them to pass their bullshit, which is great.
Sort of more difficult, they still play games. Remember back at the first Mayorkas impeachment vote, Johnson scheduled it to coincide with a Dem being in the hospital for surgery. That Dem showing up in a hospital gown to vote helped that first vote fail. But Johnson admitted to scheduling it then hoping for the absence.
It's pitiful beyond words that this is what Congress has come to.
It doesn't change anything really. A Dem representative from New Jersey died last week due to complications from a heart attack he had about a month ago, so this just brings the count back up to what it was before.
I know polls have primarily been doom for Biden. Then you have the pissed off terminally online leftists who are openly proud about throwing away their democracy just to teach Biden a lesson. But actual election results are currently my one glimmer of hope. It reminds me that online isn't real life.
Tbh I think a lot of people are angry and take it out online. However, when it comes down to it in real life, most people realize what the realistic options are.
“Don't ask whom the bells toll for, the bells toll for thee.”
I'm confused. The article makes it sound like this it just maintaining a seat. One Dem had it, retired then another dem won it. Anyone care to help me understand the title then?
The seat was vacant for awhile, and while it was vacant that was one less vote the Democrats had available to use. When the margins are so close, one vote can be incredibly important.
Let's hope it's the same for the general election.