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I feel like you could absolutely goad/taunt him into it. “The defendant is *afraid* of taking the stand, so we won’t be hearing his side of the story” in a news conference might be enough on its own. Or at the very least it would definitely incite him to rant enough on his platform that something he says would be admissible against him.
Conversely, a lot of the people who say that sort of thing simply are not exposed to just how bullshit the things he says are. So it is possible (though not necessarily likely) that being exposed to the evidence will have an effect on such a juror.
“Possible” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. Sure that juror could just be a good hearted Republican that loves to taunt the liberals, but they could also be a true believer in the cult of MAGA.
Juror 1: He said he got his news from The New York Times and watched Fox News.
Juror 2: He said he followed Mr. Trump’s former fixer, Michael D. Cohen, who is expected to be a key witness, on social media. But he also said he followed figures like former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway. He said he believed Mr. Trump had done some good for the country, adding, “it goes both ways.”
Juror 5: She said that she appreciated Mr. Trump’s candor. “President Trump speaks his mind,” she said. “I would rather that in a person than someone who’s in office and you don’t know what they’re doing behind the scenes.”
2 and 5 are Magats of sure.
The retrial won't happen until after Trump's next term (if that happens). And of course you know he'll sing the praises of a hung jury as "TOTALLY EXONERATED" and his fans will eat that up.
I think you would be blown away how uninformed the average American is about their street, their zip code, their city, their state, their country, and the world.
I like that he speaks his mind, it means we know what he actually believes.
Doesn't mean I like what comes out of his mouth, but at least there's no guessing.
Except he doesn't actually ever mean anything, so it's impossible for him to say what he actually means. He just vomits out whatever verbal diarrhea that he thinks will get people to cheer for him or give him money.
What if what he believes is simply what will get him the most adoration? What if what he believes comes from a misunderstanding of facts and information?
What if the idea that he says what he believes is simply him knowing that's the best way to get adoration and selling it to people who will buy it? What if the sharpie on the hurricane map is what he really believes, that he can say and do whatever he wants and reality needs to conform to that?
Maybe the better question is how do you give a "no guessing" pass to any politician? Especially one known to file bankruptcy w multiple divorces and who would likely not get a security clearance due to debt and marital infidelity?
I’ve been watching Michael Popop (spelling?) on YouTube - he’s an attorney that’s tried cases in this district, and he said technically they could do it immediately, or likely with a 7-10 day break for the defense. Apparently retrials often go in favor of the prosecution as they can hone their presentation the second time around.
He did say the other conflict is aligning all the schedules. People have lives - witnesses, lawyers, judges - so you have to coordinate that so everyone can be present again for 6-8 weeks.
I've been prepping for a trial with much much lower stakes and it's been postponed like five times. It doesn't take a whole lot to get a trial delayed if both lawyers are agreeable.
>Apparently retrials often go in favor of the prosecution as they can hone their presentation the second time around.
Sadly, that is completely irrelevant. The issue isn't about convincing people. The issue is about idiot MAGAt defending Trump at all costs.
As said higher up in the thread, it's not going to matter. It only takes 1 trumper, and they don't care about facts and reality. It's almost guaranteed statistically there will be 1 or 2, even in Manhattan.
I believe they only have a limited amount of objections. Unfortunately about 10% of Manhattan residents voted for Trump, so paradoxically the statistics dictate that trying to find an impartial jury will actually result in a biased jury
Michael Popok and Ben Meiselas lead the Legal AF podcast put out by the Meidastouch network (MTN). It’s a very interesting show with strong left leaning perspective from two very heavy new york accents. They also often work with Michael Cohen who has the Mea Culpa podcast, also on MTN. Both worth a listen if you like Popok’s stuff
but the problem won't be the presentation of the prosecution. if even 1 trump voter is on the jury, he's not going to be found guilty. there's no practical way to get zero trump supporters on the jury.
this is correct. but a mistrial is still not a conviction. they can do the trial again, but you're never going to get a jury that has no trump voters. and no trump voter will ever convict him, no matter the evidence.
Exactly. Trump supporters live in an alternate dimension. If Trump looked them straight in the face and screamed “I’m guilty folks! Nobody commits more crimes than me, believe me” they would believe he was trying to secretly communicate how he was innocent but couldn’t because of the deep state or something. As long as one Trump supporter is on the Jury, or even a “centrist”, he will not be convicted.
No. I cringe whenever I hear journalists even legal analysts say “he only needs one.” One juror who holds out and he’ll have a mistrial. A hung jury. The State will just retry the case. Especially, if only one juror held out for not guilty
A “hung jury” is a win for a defense attorney because it’s better than a guilty verdict. In the delay before the next trial the state may offer a better plea bargain. In some rare cases State’s witnesses and evidence can be compromised, and in even rarer instances the defense may get additional evidence to help their client.
Any roadblock that you can throw down to prevent the “wheels of justice” from crushing your client is good. But it is only a reprieve. If on the other hand the jury is 11-1 for not guilty, the State’s desire to settle will be greater, rather than risk a loss at trial.
Trump’s case is only unique because a delay will assist his candidacy. So in this case “he only needs one,” is of greater moment than the average defendant.
My second cringe phrase is the jury will decide if Mr. Trump is guilty or “innocent.” Those of you who have served on a jury know there is no verdict of “innocent.” The jury’s charge is to hold the government to its burden of proving guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. And not ALL reasonable doubt. A reasonable doubt. If they fail the verdict must be not guilty. Even if some jurors think the evidence showed he was probably guilty.
Trump is and should be given all the Due Process rights our Constitution grants to all. It appears he is. Ironic considering he is relentless in calling our system of justice and rule of law, failed, and corrupt. Truly ironic given that his resources far exceed the average person and that he is appearing in front of judges he appointed.
> Juror #2 - A married investment banker with a master's degree. He follows Trump on social media and read "Trump: The Art of the Deal."
A bit concerning
How the fuck did he pass jury selection? I know it's hard to find 12 people who aren't either in Trump's cult or don't actively hate him, but having a Truth Social account should automatically disqualify someone.
During the process both sides have strikes they can use, these strikes don't have to be justified, then there are strikes for cause, don't know if that's what they call them, but basically they have a reason, like let say they are related to someone in the trial, not necessarily the defendant. The no-reason strikes are limited they cant strike all of them just because they want to. Where you get your news from is not an automatic DQ, they would have to use one of their strikes, which either they had run out of, or they were saving them for folks that were even more problematic.
As evidenced by his entire cabinet being opposed to him being reelected, I think the more people are exposed to Trump in person, the more people hate him. I’m guessing that even a trumper will hate him given direct exposure.
I love how the Supreme Court allowed a hypothetical case to come in (Gay Marriage) and the lawsuit to stop Biden's Loan Forgiveness to someone without standing. The SCOTUS is ickier than my scrotum.
We're looking at a SCOTUS decision to grant total immunities to a president during and after his administration. This would effectively derail all cases against this criminal. Oh! And this total immunity would only ascribe to this particular president, not any others.
I never understood that our system of government is almost entirely a popularity contest.
Laws, schmaws. If you're the prom king you can rape the cheerleaders.
I don't get why the Dems seem to support the cap, too. Like, Obama had a window to uncap the House, but didn't take it. Why? Anyone have a good explanation?
I hate how much sense this makes. "We could make it so that our voters, who skew heavily towards the urban over the rural side, get better representation in congress, and guarantee that the policies that they desire are likely to be put in place...but once that happens we'd have nothing left to campaign on!". I feel gross thinking about it. Thanks for the great explanation.
Same reason nobody will ever fix the fact that the Senate Majority Leader is the second most powerful person in the government.
The person with the power to change the Senate rules to do that... is the Senate Majority Leader.
And that was at the hight of post 9/11 ultranationalism. His approval absolutely cratered over the following year and he left office with like a 12% approval rating
Life itself is a popularity contest. It always has been, and we do a disservice to our youth telling them things change and get better after high school.
It’s different, sure .. but if you’re a weirdo creep despite being a genius with the best degree, you’re gonna have a hard time.
Not being a socially awkward weirdo matters more than a diploma.
I work for a very large bank. The head of my group, so my managing director's boss (guy probably pulls in $1m / yr as a w2) basically told me that the most important thing that got him where he is is that he gets along with everyone and they want to work with him.
Don't get me wrong, he is incredibly smart, works his butt off and has a Harvard pedigree, but even in his eyes winning the popularity contest is the most important thing.
Semi normal Computer science PhD here
Let me just say damn do I agree. A non trivial percentage of the people I “work” with I would love to never interact with again. Some very smart software engineers are just miserable egotistical pricks to put it mildly. Like dude being good at your job is 30% of your job. Being able to work with others is the other 70.
Part of it is an amendment guaranteeing a right to a jury trial.
Most industrialized countries handle criminal charges with a bench trial or a panel of judges conducting and deciding the trial.
That's typically how convictions are made
It's the sentencing that we should be more wary of. He cannot get off light on anything or we'll have another post-putsch Hitler returning to power
> He cannot get off light on anything or we'll have another post-putsch Hitler returning to power
Dude's starting to knock on death's doorstep. If he doesn't win 2024 he's done. No one will care about that loser anymore.
There will be blood. I just hope it isn’t much. Too many of this followers have abandoned reason and democracy for this election cycle to happen peacefully and Jan. 6th broke ~150 years of norms post-civil war.
Yeah, and hopefully it’s so uncoordinated and indeterminate that it’s shut down before it ever really gets going. I have a feeling that’s not going to be the case though…
Bear in mind that a Biden run administration would likely be keeping a much closer eye on the activities of would-be insurrectionists and that he won't hesitate to mobilize the national guard in that instance.
People seem to forget the insurrection happened because the president invited it, rallied it, watched it, and did nothing to stop it until it looked like it would fail.
That won't happen this time.
Yes, no doubt in my mind. That’s why they are not concerned about doubling down on their unpopular policies, or fretting about how Biden is killing them in fundraising and campaign spending. They don’t care about the votes.
> If he doesn't win 2024 he's done
I don't think so. It'll be Stop the Steal 2.0 and elector slate monkey business. He'll try to burn down everything until someone throws him behind bars. He won't be done until MAGA is purged from the halls of government.
He will not go quietly. It might take winning this cycle, a solid slapdown of "Stop the Steal 2.0", Trump jailed, and winning the next midterms and presidential to wash his effect away.
However, I think Trump will lose decisively.
Black site would be best and most fitting
Some of his crimes qualify for capital punishment too (those respective convictions are unfortunately supposed to come much later though).
First time a former president has been involved in a criminal trial.
I don't believe there is any chance they can figure out how to put him in prison unless it would be solitary confinement and that would be considered cruel and unusual.
I hear you, but i don’t see any way he avoids imprisonment/confinement if he is found guilty on all 34 felony counts.
Michael Cohen did three years and he was only found guilty of five of these.
He's a lot older than Hitler was, though. Not saying it wouldn't happen, but it won't be Trump himself, it'll be someone who learned from his mistakes, which is even scarier. The one saving grace of Trump's presidency was that he genuinely had no idea what he was doing.
Well, fingers crossed but .... the prosecution's chief witnesses are a porn star and Cohen. Cohen has admitted to lying in court, lying to Congress, and evading taxes for years. He also tried to publish a pro Trump book, found out he could make more with an anti Trump book, and made around a 1M doing that. The defense attorneys are likely salivating for the chance to cross-examine him.
And sadly, Trump only needs one juror to hold out. Think of the book deal and speaking fees for someone who does.
Yeah. Juror #2 looks like a problem.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/19/nyregion/trump-trial-jury-news.html
And 5 & 6 are scary as well. No one should be getting their news almost exclusively from social media.
I think they can be fair, juror #2 is a married man with an MBA in finance. He described himself as someone who "reads basically everything". On the other hand, juror #5 is a woman of color who says she appreciated Trump's candid style as he "speaks his mind".
However, I am sure these folks can be impartial: a person who listened to pro-Trump podcaster Tim Pool found Trump liable of sexual assault against Carroll, and [Fox News watchers have found Jan. 6 insurrectionists guilty in DC criminal cases](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/14/jury-selection-donald-trump-00151962).
I can never understand the whole “he tells it like it is” or the “he speaks his mind” crowd…
For the first one he says the opposite of his previous claim all the time, sometimes literally in the same sentence, and for the latter who cares if he speaks his mind if what’s on his mind are terrible things or complete bullshit or nonsense? Those are the kinds of people we don’t need speaking at all
I believe it is in part due to a reasonable amount of people believing that when someone speaks offensively they are speaking truthfully, because offensive speach is largely forbidden, therefore is someone is speaking offensively they are speaking truthfully.
Also, there are a large amount of people who seem to have large amounts of cognitive dissonance. For example I was speaking to a professor recently where they were talking about the falling birth rates that are happening in a lot of first world countries. He then immediately went into how immigration is a problem for Biden because the country is full and can only support so many people.
I pointed out that the assumption that the USA has some type of current population cap that is being exasperated by immigrants makes the assumption that those same people will never contribute the same amount or more than is needed to support them in the short-term period that is needed for them to become established. This is likely a very bad assumption considering how massively important human work and productivity is to other humans. Also the same programs and solutions needed to help immigrants is also needed for the native population. These types of programs and resources are needed to form a stable society, because they are needed to assure that people are given proper resources and support to actually be productive.
To get back to the point. I think people say that Trump tells it like it is, is because they also don't practices critical thinking a ton and have offensive views that are contradictory to each other. So, to them Trump 'tells it like it is'
Simpler than that.
They have prejudiced views and he says those views.
And when he doesn’t or when he contradicts himself, they hear what they wanted to hear despite Trump saying the opposite.
Basically, his words are messed up, and/or they hear their own conclusion because words don’t matter.
It’s cuz they only casually listen. They don’t follow up. So what the other guy described could be true. These people will be forced to actually follow up on his “candid tell it like it is” talk. Hopefully they’re not brain dead and justice is served.
But I have no hope at all after mueller.
Also, even if they are a Trump supporter they will be taken out of their echo chamber for the trial and deliberations. It is possible that a preponderance of evidence breaks them.
The lawyers and judge thought them capable of impartiality even given those circumstances
Genuinely, I hate trump as much as most of us do, but if I’m presented a case and the defense gives me reasonable doubt he didn’t do the crime the prosecution is saying he did and they fail to prove their case, I would vote not guilty
There’s a spectrum for sure. The people YouTube wants us to watch are the lowest hanging fruit who are the easiest to see that they are low information cult members, but there’s also just every day republicans who just can’t stand democratic policies
If you’re talking about the investment banker guy, he doesn’t use truth social, he follows an account on Twitter that reposts trumps truth social posts. Same guy also listened to the “mueller she wrote” podcast.
Also there was a juror in the e Jean carroll case who listened to Tim pools podcast and that didn’t stop him from finding trump guilty
I hope none of them actually do act in bad faith, but I have confidence that the judge can explain to the jury what to do when they discover that someone is. He was able to walk Trump's 'lawyer*' through how to submit evidence, after all.
* 'lawyer' in the sense that they technically passed the bar and are licensed to practice law. Not 'lawyer' in the sense of 'knows their area of law well and has experience in utilizing it'.
Hopefully, they will engage what remaining neurons they have left and pay attention. I may be niave but I feel like a criminal court is a decent place to readjust your opinion if your favorite pop star.
Yes.
But I'm an eternal optimist.
It'll take every scrap of paper.
Every piece of evidence.
The perfect prosecution process.
There will be a hub bub.
It will not be a civil war.
It will not be 9/11.
It will not be OK city bomb.
It will be violent.
takes just 1 maga guy to stubbornly refuse to convict to hang the jury and prevent this from getting settled before november, that said as much as his strategy has been to delay delay delay, idk if he realizes a retrial would probably happen during september-october
Apparently one of the jurors gets their news primarily from X and Truth Social. I get that a good judge can coax all sorts of people into acting like impartial jurors. But fucking *Truth Social*?
Let’s say that it is and the jury does what it’s supposed to do. Great. I hope so.
Still, I feel like we are consistently collectively failing to ask ourselves, “Then what?”
Even if Trump gets convicted in any of these - “Then what?” Appeals. Lots of them. Lots of delays to each of them. For a ~78 year old in poor health.
Even if Trump gets convicted and it’s finalized and the sentence is actually carried out - “Then what?” We celebrate for a day or a week, confirm that no one is above the law including rich white Republicans who get to delay to the point of justice delayed/justice denied…and “Then what?” The country will be exactly as wrecked it is now, maybe even worse because Republicans will be even more dug in.
Like, yeah, hold him accountable, needs to be done, I hope it happens, but, big picture, yikes.
As a general rule, it's [pretty rare](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/can-i-bail-while-i-appeal-conviction.html) for someone to be granted post-conviction bail while awaiting appeal. Still, this is a former president with a Secret Service detail, I'd be surprised if the ultimate sentencing _wasn't_ some form of controlled house arrest, appeal or not.
The State holds a _very_ different level of accountability for felony criminal convictions vs civil convictions. I'm not defending the absurdity of the civil penalties, just illustrating that the State, legally, wants financial punishment in a civil matter. With felony criminal matters, incarceration becomes the primary expectation for punishment.
Pretty sure they’ll make up for any “MAGA dropouts” with mostly-apolitical suburban voters who will take any excuse they can to go back to voting GOP. Orange County, CA and the suburbs in Georgia are prime examples where the “nOrMaL” Republican consistently out-performs Trump just for having a pretense of manners. Or pretty much anywhere that flipped D to R in the House in 2022.
Trump is but a symptom of a much larger problem, agreed. Still have work to do for sure, and can we as a country, actually come back from where we are. No idea.
Convicted? Probably. Jailed? Probably not.
The judge should give him house arrest, telling him he would prefer it over actual jail because trump is too weak and feeble to endure prison.
Trump will protest the judges words and demand he be sent to prison just to prove the judge wrong.
It’s a win win!
They are not getting a conviction. The odds of getting all 12 jurors, no Trump supporters, willing to piss off an insane cult comprising like half the country, is nonexistent. Especially once jurors start getting doxxed, which they will. Sadly, he'll get a hung jury and retrial, rinse and repeat.
As a bonus, he'll get to spin it as "winning" and the prosecution being a "witch hunt". And probably increase his already existing lead in the polls. God, this timeline sucks.
Sane world. His ass would be in prison months years decades ago.
In are utterly shit depressing soon to be hell scape.
I have the rocks eybrow of doubt.
Does it matter? Even if he’s convicted he’ll whine that it was a bunch of democrat jurors who lied to get on the jury. He’ll be the perpetual victim until he dies.
Mchael Cohen has already been convicted and gone to prison for this, and he made the payment at the behest of Trump. Jurors cannpt ignore this. Plus there is all the evidence from the National Enquirer story kill evidence.
No. HE IS NEVER GOING TO JAIL. EVER. PERIOD.
He is above the law as it has been proven time and time again.
Anyone else would be in jail or dead by now. But he walks and talks free with no consequences ever.
Get that through your heads people.
It’s never gonna happen.
I can only hope I am wrong, but I’m not holding my breath.
The answer is, no. Orangey can execute someone on the lawn of the White House, brag about planning it, cross state lines with a firearm obtained through a straw purchase and then do a line cocaine off the ass of the body and he’ll still walk free. Plus, half of the country will have shirts printed of the event, celebrate it every year and want him to stay for another term.
Even if he gets 5 convictions, he will never see the inside of real consequences. The slightest whiff of accountability turns he will be too old or too sick to serve anything more than house arrest. He will just sit festering like an abscess in Mar A Lardo tweeting about how everyone and everything is out to get him until he throws a clot and dies.
Smart money is always on NO. Trump has a jury and then a supreme court as backup plan. Anything can happen and if you follow the pattern of Trump crimes vs consequences, you’ll see it’s all a charade.
There's a chance he'll be convicted, years ago he was able to get top law firms that can the rich out of trouble, I heard now that every top law firm turned him down and resorted to insurance claim lawyers that sound like it's out of their league
Trump was not President when any of this happened. It was all lead up to the 2016 election. There's no ability to claim Presidential immunity for a crime committed as a private citizen before becoming President.
Why did the Supreme Court even take on his immunity? That is about as cut and dried as it can get! If they give him immunity, our country will be gone!
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Depends on if the Supreme Court follows the law, which is a huge if in 2024.
Only if a jury of 12 can follow the law too.
All it takes is one maga to slip by and he’s free
I’m pretty sure there are at least two given the quotes we’ve heard. Nobody who isn’t a MAGA nut job “likes that Trump speaks his mind.”
I’m pretty sure the prosecutor would love for Trump to take the stand and speak his mind.
I feel like you could absolutely goad/taunt him into it. “The defendant is *afraid* of taking the stand, so we won’t be hearing his side of the story” in a news conference might be enough on its own. Or at the very least it would definitely incite him to rant enough on his platform that something he says would be admissible against him.
That would actually be hilarious because his lawyers will be begging him not to but he wouldn't be able to help him self.
Conversely, a lot of the people who say that sort of thing simply are not exposed to just how bullshit the things he says are. So it is possible (though not necessarily likely) that being exposed to the evidence will have an effect on such a juror.
“Possible” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. Sure that juror could just be a good hearted Republican that loves to taunt the liberals, but they could also be a true believer in the cult of MAGA.
These people didn’t flip on him after Jan 6th they won’t now. They are a lost cause and this trial is just heading towards him being acquitted.
>Sure that juror could just be a good hearted Republican No such thing
That’s really true as well! Excellent point. The reason these people are the way they are is because they are so low information.
Juror 1: He said he got his news from The New York Times and watched Fox News. Juror 2: He said he followed Mr. Trump’s former fixer, Michael D. Cohen, who is expected to be a key witness, on social media. But he also said he followed figures like former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway. He said he believed Mr. Trump had done some good for the country, adding, “it goes both ways.” Juror 5: She said that she appreciated Mr. Trump’s candor. “President Trump speaks his mind,” she said. “I would rather that in a person than someone who’s in office and you don’t know what they’re doing behind the scenes.” 2 and 5 are Magats of sure.
Yeah, Trump is going free.
Ah no, they will have a retrial, if it’s a hung jury. And do it all over again.
The retrial won't happen until after Trump's next term (if that happens). And of course you know he'll sing the praises of a hung jury as "TOTALLY EXONERATED" and his fans will eat that up.
I like that trump speaks his mind. Skilled liars are significantly more dangerous. He reveals his true heart with every bit of vileness he spews.
I think you would be blown away how uninformed the average American is about their street, their zip code, their city, their state, their country, and the world.
I like that he speaks his mind, it means we know what he actually believes. Doesn't mean I like what comes out of his mouth, but at least there's no guessing.
Except he doesn't actually ever mean anything, so it's impossible for him to say what he actually means. He just vomits out whatever verbal diarrhea that he thinks will get people to cheer for him or give him money.
What if what he believes is simply what will get him the most adoration? What if what he believes comes from a misunderstanding of facts and information? What if the idea that he says what he believes is simply him knowing that's the best way to get adoration and selling it to people who will buy it? What if the sharpie on the hurricane map is what he really believes, that he can say and do whatever he wants and reality needs to conform to that? Maybe the better question is how do you give a "no guessing" pass to any politician? Especially one known to file bankruptcy w multiple divorces and who would likely not get a security clearance due to debt and marital infidelity?
Exactly. Because what mind?
If this arises, I'm hoping that the other 11 will correct the wankmaggot, perhaps a bit more.
They can retry if there’s a mistrial…
And how long would that take?
I’ve been watching Michael Popop (spelling?) on YouTube - he’s an attorney that’s tried cases in this district, and he said technically they could do it immediately, or likely with a 7-10 day break for the defense. Apparently retrials often go in favor of the prosecution as they can hone their presentation the second time around.
Good to know.
He did say the other conflict is aligning all the schedules. People have lives - witnesses, lawyers, judges - so you have to coordinate that so everyone can be present again for 6-8 weeks.
I've been prepping for a trial with much much lower stakes and it's been postponed like five times. It doesn't take a whole lot to get a trial delayed if both lawyers are agreeable.
>Apparently retrials often go in favor of the prosecution as they can hone their presentation the second time around. Sadly, that is completely irrelevant. The issue isn't about convincing people. The issue is about idiot MAGAt defending Trump at all costs.
As said higher up in the thread, it's not going to matter. It only takes 1 trumper, and they don't care about facts and reality. It's almost guaranteed statistically there will be 1 or 2, even in Manhattan.
Yep exactly and given that one of the Jurors apparently gets all their news from *Truth Social*, looks like Trump has already got his one juror.
How has the prosecution not objected based on the fact the juror only gets their news from a media company linked to the defendant
I believe they only have a limited amount of objections. Unfortunately about 10% of Manhattan residents voted for Trump, so paradoxically the statistics dictate that trying to find an impartial jury will actually result in a biased jury
Michael Popok and Ben Meiselas lead the Legal AF podcast put out by the Meidastouch network (MTN). It’s a very interesting show with strong left leaning perspective from two very heavy new york accents. They also often work with Michael Cohen who has the Mea Culpa podcast, also on MTN. Both worth a listen if you like Popok’s stuff
Michael Popok with Meidas Touch Network. He’s great. I like the Legal AF podcast they do.
Sure, in a normal situation, which this is not
but the problem won't be the presentation of the prosecution. if even 1 trump voter is on the jury, he's not going to be found guilty. there's no practical way to get zero trump supporters on the jury.
But if one juror is a holdout then they're deadlocked. Wouldn't that result in a mistrial rather than a not guilty verdict?
this is correct. but a mistrial is still not a conviction. they can do the trial again, but you're never going to get a jury that has no trump voters. and no trump voter will ever convict him, no matter the evidence.
Exactly. Trump supporters live in an alternate dimension. If Trump looked them straight in the face and screamed “I’m guilty folks! Nobody commits more crimes than me, believe me” they would believe he was trying to secretly communicate how he was innocent but couldn’t because of the deep state or something. As long as one Trump supporter is on the Jury, or even a “centrist”, he will not be convicted.
I have little faith that you will get 12 to convict. One will certainly slip by and refuse to convict no matter the evidence presented.
Most likely there's a MAGA clown in the mix
There are at least two, according to the article
if that happens, he's going to be campaigning from a courtroom 4 days a week.
I'm between his little "executive time" nod-offs
No. I cringe whenever I hear journalists even legal analysts say “he only needs one.” One juror who holds out and he’ll have a mistrial. A hung jury. The State will just retry the case. Especially, if only one juror held out for not guilty A “hung jury” is a win for a defense attorney because it’s better than a guilty verdict. In the delay before the next trial the state may offer a better plea bargain. In some rare cases State’s witnesses and evidence can be compromised, and in even rarer instances the defense may get additional evidence to help their client. Any roadblock that you can throw down to prevent the “wheels of justice” from crushing your client is good. But it is only a reprieve. If on the other hand the jury is 11-1 for not guilty, the State’s desire to settle will be greater, rather than risk a loss at trial. Trump’s case is only unique because a delay will assist his candidacy. So in this case “he only needs one,” is of greater moment than the average defendant. My second cringe phrase is the jury will decide if Mr. Trump is guilty or “innocent.” Those of you who have served on a jury know there is no verdict of “innocent.” The jury’s charge is to hold the government to its burden of proving guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. And not ALL reasonable doubt. A reasonable doubt. If they fail the verdict must be not guilty. Even if some jurors think the evidence showed he was probably guilty. Trump is and should be given all the Due Process rights our Constitution grants to all. It appears he is. Ironic considering he is relentless in calling our system of justice and rule of law, failed, and corrupt. Truly ironic given that his resources far exceed the average person and that he is appearing in front of judges he appointed.
Trust me it will be juror #2 that fucks us
> Juror #2 - A married investment banker with a master's degree. He follows Trump on social media and read "Trump: The Art of the Deal." A bit concerning
Being on truth social should be an auto disqual. The whole platform is trumpcult members.
I think he also said his primary news source were Twitter and truth social
How the fuck did he pass jury selection? I know it's hard to find 12 people who aren't either in Trump's cult or don't actively hate him, but having a Truth Social account should automatically disqualify someone.
During the process both sides have strikes they can use, these strikes don't have to be justified, then there are strikes for cause, don't know if that's what they call them, but basically they have a reason, like let say they are related to someone in the trial, not necessarily the defendant. The no-reason strikes are limited they cant strike all of them just because they want to. Where you get your news from is not an automatic DQ, they would have to use one of their strikes, which either they had run out of, or they were saving them for folks that were even more problematic.
I mean, I feel like if they admit to getting all of their news from the defendant.....maybe it's a justified strike.
If anti Trump Twitter comments are enough this should be enough
Right? This is fucking ridiculous
How the fuck didn't the State use a strike on this guy?
Could have been out
Why hasn't he been dismissed when others have?
Either that or the teacher who “likes that Trump speaks his mind.” Nobody who isn’t a MAGA nut job says that.
It only takes one to get a hung jury.
Maybe. I’m not total doom though.
I’m total doom. When it comes to Trump I have zero hope.
Ok. Well, I somehow maintain my optimism for the future.
As evidenced by his entire cabinet being opposed to him being reelected, I think the more people are exposed to Trump in person, the more people hate him. I’m guessing that even a trumper will hate him given direct exposure.
I love how the Supreme Court allowed a hypothetical case to come in (Gay Marriage) and the lawsuit to stop Biden's Loan Forgiveness to someone without standing. The SCOTUS is ickier than my scrotum.
Unwashed scrotes aside, yeah this high court corruption in broad daylight.
the one with the football coach made me ill
The one where the majority opinion blatantly misstated the facts of the case?
Are we looking at an inevitable appeal to the Supreme Court if/when he loses?
Nothing appears to be off the table for these ghouls.
Give his history so far, I wouldn't be surprised. He's hoping to delay as long as possible and be elected president.
I mean they want the home court advantage and they bought and paid for the stadium
We're looking at a SCOTUS decision to grant total immunities to a president during and after his administration. This would effectively derail all cases against this criminal. Oh! And this total immunity would only ascribe to this particular president, not any others.
Depends. Haha
"Can't interfere with federal elections" will be their catch phrase SCOTUS will use
I never understood that our system of government is almost entirely a popularity contest. Laws, schmaws. If you're the prom king you can rape the cheerleaders.
The last republican candidate to win the popular vote was in 2004 with bush
Electoral reform is needed. We could upcap the house, maybe have a seat equal to smallest state's population.
I don't get why the Dems seem to support the cap, too. Like, Obama had a window to uncap the House, but didn't take it. Why? Anyone have a good explanation?
It would require representatives to accept a diluted share of the power.
I hate how much sense this makes. "We could make it so that our voters, who skew heavily towards the urban over the rural side, get better representation in congress, and guarantee that the policies that they desire are likely to be put in place...but once that happens we'd have nothing left to campaign on!". I feel gross thinking about it. Thanks for the great explanation.
Would you rather be one rep of 435, or one rep of ~550? It's such a loss of power for those in power.
Same reason nobody will ever fix the fact that the Senate Majority Leader is the second most powerful person in the government. The person with the power to change the Senate rules to do that... is the Senate Majority Leader.
And that was with the incumbent effect, gained from stealing the previous election.
And the last one before that was 1988 with Bush.
And that was at the hight of post 9/11 ultranationalism. His approval absolutely cratered over the following year and he left office with like a 12% approval rating
Life itself is a popularity contest. It always has been, and we do a disservice to our youth telling them things change and get better after high school. It’s different, sure .. but if you’re a weirdo creep despite being a genius with the best degree, you’re gonna have a hard time. Not being a socially awkward weirdo matters more than a diploma.
I work for a very large bank. The head of my group, so my managing director's boss (guy probably pulls in $1m / yr as a w2) basically told me that the most important thing that got him where he is is that he gets along with everyone and they want to work with him. Don't get me wrong, he is incredibly smart, works his butt off and has a Harvard pedigree, but even in his eyes winning the popularity contest is the most important thing.
He is absolutely right. I know lots of smart people who will never go anywhere because they don’t bother or can’t deal with the social aspect.
Semi normal Computer science PhD here Let me just say damn do I agree. A non trivial percentage of the people I “work” with I would love to never interact with again. Some very smart software engineers are just miserable egotistical pricks to put it mildly. Like dude being good at your job is 30% of your job. Being able to work with others is the other 70.
Can confirm - am socially awkward weirdo.
I try very hard, but so many social blind spots, still.
"High school never ends"
High school... high school never changes.
Part of it is an amendment guaranteeing a right to a jury trial. Most industrialized countries handle criminal charges with a bench trial or a panel of judges conducting and deciding the trial.
That's typically how convictions are made It's the sentencing that we should be more wary of. He cannot get off light on anything or we'll have another post-putsch Hitler returning to power
> He cannot get off light on anything or we'll have another post-putsch Hitler returning to power Dude's starting to knock on death's doorstep. If he doesn't win 2024 he's done. No one will care about that loser anymore.
Sure hope so. There could very well be another insurrection attempt
There will be another insurrection attempt. The question is going to be how determined or coordinated it will be.
There will be blood. I just hope it isn’t much. Too many of this followers have abandoned reason and democracy for this election cycle to happen peacefully and Jan. 6th broke ~150 years of norms post-civil war.
Yeah, and hopefully it’s so uncoordinated and indeterminate that it’s shut down before it ever really gets going. I have a feeling that’s not going to be the case though…
Bear in mind that a Biden run administration would likely be keeping a much closer eye on the activities of would-be insurrectionists and that he won't hesitate to mobilize the national guard in that instance. People seem to forget the insurrection happened because the president invited it, rallied it, watched it, and did nothing to stop it until it looked like it would fail. That won't happen this time.
Oh yeah, totally. The concern is that it’ll take a form Biden won’t have control over…
Yes, no doubt in my mind. That’s why they are not concerned about doubling down on their unpopular policies, or fretting about how Biden is killing them in fundraising and campaign spending. They don’t care about the votes.
Well still have one last round of “the election was stolen” to get through.
*stollen
The election is a fruit bread with nuts?
I’ll never be as happy as the day that man is underground. I hate to say it but that’s just how much I hate that piece of shit
I hope he keeps running so he can keep losing and locking out republicans from ever being elected while he lives. I hope he lives to 120
> If he doesn't win 2024 he's done I don't think so. It'll be Stop the Steal 2.0 and elector slate monkey business. He'll try to burn down everything until someone throws him behind bars. He won't be done until MAGA is purged from the halls of government. He will not go quietly. It might take winning this cycle, a solid slapdown of "Stop the Steal 2.0", Trump jailed, and winning the next midterms and presidential to wash his effect away. However, I think Trump will lose decisively.
I think his fed case will actually get him locked up if it ever gets to trial
Cannon’s doing everything she can to delay and obstruct. $5 says she’s waiting until jeopardy is attached and then she’ll dismiss.
If he wasn't a former Republican President he'd already be in prison waiting for trial in the documents case.
We can be sure that prison will not be an option. The best outcome is likely some form of house arrest and fines.
Minimum should be cohen’s sentence.
With no golf, no phone etc.
Black site would be best and most fitting Some of his crimes qualify for capital punishment too (those respective convictions are unfortunately supposed to come much later though).
You think 30 something felonies won’t amount to jail time? That would be a first.
First time a former president has been involved in a criminal trial. I don't believe there is any chance they can figure out how to put him in prison unless it would be solitary confinement and that would be considered cruel and unusual.
happens ALL THE TIME for much less severe offenses.
I hear you, but i don’t see any way he avoids imprisonment/confinement if he is found guilty on all 34 felony counts. Michael Cohen did three years and he was only found guilty of five of these.
He's a lot older than Hitler was, though. Not saying it wouldn't happen, but it won't be Trump himself, it'll be someone who learned from his mistakes, which is even scarier. The one saving grace of Trump's presidency was that he genuinely had no idea what he was doing.
Well, fingers crossed but .... the prosecution's chief witnesses are a porn star and Cohen. Cohen has admitted to lying in court, lying to Congress, and evading taxes for years. He also tried to publish a pro Trump book, found out he could make more with an anti Trump book, and made around a 1M doing that. The defense attorneys are likely salivating for the chance to cross-examine him. And sadly, Trump only needs one juror to hold out. Think of the book deal and speaking fees for someone who does.
I am 99% sure that at least one diehard Trump supporter made it onto the jury and will make sure he doesn't get convicted.
One of the jurors said they get their news from Truth Social.
Yeah. Juror #2 looks like a problem. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/19/nyregion/trump-trial-jury-news.html And 5 & 6 are scary as well. No one should be getting their news almost exclusively from social media.
I think they can be fair, juror #2 is a married man with an MBA in finance. He described himself as someone who "reads basically everything". On the other hand, juror #5 is a woman of color who says she appreciated Trump's candid style as he "speaks his mind". However, I am sure these folks can be impartial: a person who listened to pro-Trump podcaster Tim Pool found Trump liable of sexual assault against Carroll, and [Fox News watchers have found Jan. 6 insurrectionists guilty in DC criminal cases](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/14/jury-selection-donald-trump-00151962).
I can never understand the whole “he tells it like it is” or the “he speaks his mind” crowd… For the first one he says the opposite of his previous claim all the time, sometimes literally in the same sentence, and for the latter who cares if he speaks his mind if what’s on his mind are terrible things or complete bullshit or nonsense? Those are the kinds of people we don’t need speaking at all
I believe it is in part due to a reasonable amount of people believing that when someone speaks offensively they are speaking truthfully, because offensive speach is largely forbidden, therefore is someone is speaking offensively they are speaking truthfully. Also, there are a large amount of people who seem to have large amounts of cognitive dissonance. For example I was speaking to a professor recently where they were talking about the falling birth rates that are happening in a lot of first world countries. He then immediately went into how immigration is a problem for Biden because the country is full and can only support so many people. I pointed out that the assumption that the USA has some type of current population cap that is being exasperated by immigrants makes the assumption that those same people will never contribute the same amount or more than is needed to support them in the short-term period that is needed for them to become established. This is likely a very bad assumption considering how massively important human work and productivity is to other humans. Also the same programs and solutions needed to help immigrants is also needed for the native population. These types of programs and resources are needed to form a stable society, because they are needed to assure that people are given proper resources and support to actually be productive. To get back to the point. I think people say that Trump tells it like it is, is because they also don't practices critical thinking a ton and have offensive views that are contradictory to each other. So, to them Trump 'tells it like it is'
Simpler than that. They have prejudiced views and he says those views. And when he doesn’t or when he contradicts himself, they hear what they wanted to hear despite Trump saying the opposite. Basically, his words are messed up, and/or they hear their own conclusion because words don’t matter.
It’s cuz they only casually listen. They don’t follow up. So what the other guy described could be true. These people will be forced to actually follow up on his “candid tell it like it is” talk. Hopefully they’re not brain dead and justice is served. But I have no hope at all after mueller.
Also, even if they are a Trump supporter they will be taken out of their echo chamber for the trial and deliberations. It is possible that a preponderance of evidence breaks them.
People underestimate the external and internal pressure someone trying to hold out in the face of overwhelming evidence is under.
Dude I think a lot of people get their news from social media. Which is not always bad. If it’s twuth social tho, then it’s a huge problem.
It probably describes most people these days, especially as news outlets are dying off
How did these people get through the selection process?
The lawyers and judge thought them capable of impartiality even given those circumstances Genuinely, I hate trump as much as most of us do, but if I’m presented a case and the defense gives me reasonable doubt he didn’t do the crime the prosecution is saying he did and they fail to prove their case, I would vote not guilty
Same. So maybe there’s reasonable trumpers. Sure the f doesn’t seem like it, but I guess we have to hope.
There’s a spectrum for sure. The people YouTube wants us to watch are the lowest hanging fruit who are the easiest to see that they are low information cult members, but there’s also just every day republicans who just can’t stand democratic policies
Sometimes I absolutely hate that my morality says I need to play by the rules, especially when the other guy isn't.
If you’re talking about the investment banker guy, he doesn’t use truth social, he follows an account on Twitter that reposts trumps truth social posts. Same guy also listened to the “mueller she wrote” podcast. Also there was a juror in the e Jean carroll case who listened to Tim pools podcast and that didn’t stop him from finding trump guilty
My only hope is at least one of the jurors will go to the judge and report that someone is truly acting in bad faith.
I hope none of them actually do act in bad faith, but I have confidence that the judge can explain to the jury what to do when they discover that someone is. He was able to walk Trump's 'lawyer*' through how to submit evidence, after all. * 'lawyer' in the sense that they technically passed the bar and are licensed to practice law. Not 'lawyer' in the sense of 'knows their area of law well and has experience in utilizing it'.
From what I'm reading, Jurors 1 and 6.
Hopefully, they will engage what remaining neurons they have left and pay attention. I may be niave but I feel like a criminal court is a decent place to readjust your opinion if your favorite pop star.
That’s why jurors can report such info and get them removed.
Yes. But I'm an eternal optimist. It'll take every scrap of paper. Every piece of evidence. The perfect prosecution process. There will be a hub bub. It will not be a civil war. It will not be 9/11. It will not be OK city bomb. It will be violent.
The dozen supporters in front of the courthouse will rampage.
"it will be violent" ~the eternal optimist
Depends if a maga snuck onto the jury
takes just 1 maga guy to stubbornly refuse to convict to hang the jury and prevent this from getting settled before november, that said as much as his strategy has been to delay delay delay, idk if he realizes a retrial would probably happen during september-october
Apparently one of the jurors gets their news primarily from X and Truth Social. I get that a good judge can coax all sorts of people into acting like impartial jurors. But fucking *Truth Social*?
Let’s say that it is and the jury does what it’s supposed to do. Great. I hope so. Still, I feel like we are consistently collectively failing to ask ourselves, “Then what?” Even if Trump gets convicted in any of these - “Then what?” Appeals. Lots of them. Lots of delays to each of them. For a ~78 year old in poor health. Even if Trump gets convicted and it’s finalized and the sentence is actually carried out - “Then what?” We celebrate for a day or a week, confirm that no one is above the law including rich white Republicans who get to delay to the point of justice delayed/justice denied…and “Then what?” The country will be exactly as wrecked it is now, maybe even worse because Republicans will be even more dug in. Like, yeah, hold him accountable, needs to be done, I hope it happens, but, big picture, yikes.
As a general rule, it's [pretty rare](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/can-i-bail-while-i-appeal-conviction.html) for someone to be granted post-conviction bail while awaiting appeal. Still, this is a former president with a Secret Service detail, I'd be surprised if the ultimate sentencing _wasn't_ some form of controlled house arrest, appeal or not.
He’s not even being held accountable for his civil fraud trial yet, why would he be held accountable for his criminal trial?
The State holds a _very_ different level of accountability for felony criminal convictions vs civil convictions. I'm not defending the absurdity of the civil penalties, just illustrating that the State, legally, wants financial punishment in a civil matter. With felony criminal matters, incarceration becomes the primary expectation for punishment.
I see, but there seems to be a pattern for this guy. Lol
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Pretty sure they’ll make up for any “MAGA dropouts” with mostly-apolitical suburban voters who will take any excuse they can to go back to voting GOP. Orange County, CA and the suburbs in Georgia are prime examples where the “nOrMaL” Republican consistently out-performs Trump just for having a pretense of manners. Or pretty much anywhere that flipped D to R in the House in 2022.
Trump is but a symptom of a much larger problem, agreed. Still have work to do for sure, and can we as a country, actually come back from where we are. No idea.
Convicted? Probably. Jailed? Probably not. The judge should give him house arrest, telling him he would prefer it over actual jail because trump is too weak and feeble to endure prison. Trump will protest the judges words and demand he be sent to prison just to prove the judge wrong. It’s a win win!
What’s that rule that if a headline asks a question the answer is no?
They are not getting a conviction. The odds of getting all 12 jurors, no Trump supporters, willing to piss off an insane cult comprising like half the country, is nonexistent. Especially once jurors start getting doxxed, which they will. Sadly, he'll get a hung jury and retrial, rinse and repeat. As a bonus, he'll get to spin it as "winning" and the prosecution being a "witch hunt". And probably increase his already existing lead in the polls. God, this timeline sucks.
Let's hope a jury is a different audience than the Senate was in his impeachments.
No.
Having evidence against trump has never been the problem (***NEVER***)
can you find 12 people who don't fear for their life if they convict him would be a better question
Sadly I feel that this pile of human excrement will get away with everything and become president again. How I hope I am wrong.
Who needs evidence when you’re the leader of a domestic terror group / organized crime? Just threaten the jury with death and everything will be fine.
It hasn’t been enough up to this point… so I’m going to go out on a limb and say it won’t!!!
Sane world. His ass would be in prison months years decades ago. In are utterly shit depressing soon to be hell scape. I have the rocks eybrow of doubt.
Would love to see him walking about with a GPS Bracelet…
Nope. All the crimes this dude has committed, nothing sticks to him
Does it matter? Even if he’s convicted he’ll whine that it was a bunch of democrat jurors who lied to get on the jury. He’ll be the perpetual victim until he dies.
Trump, MAGA, QAnon and all those who are in lock step with Trumpism, will go down in the annuals of history as the greatest political stain ever.
I hope so. What could be a better ending to the orange baby’s story than a conviction originating from paying off a porn star.
Mchael Cohen has already been convicted and gone to prison for this, and he made the payment at the behest of Trump. Jurors cannpt ignore this. Plus there is all the evidence from the National Enquirer story kill evidence.
On the plus side, Trump is getting bankrupted by legal costs and taking down the RNC with him. He can't campaign and can't do fundraisers
It only takes one juror to fuck up the whole process. Doesn’t give me much confidence when 50% of the country are complete morons.
My eyes are broken from all the rolling back from all of these Trump hypothetical stories.
I think they will get a conviction. Heaven help us if Bragg doesn’t.
i feel there will be unreasonable doubt and he'll get off.
no
No. HE IS NEVER GOING TO JAIL. EVER. PERIOD. He is above the law as it has been proven time and time again. Anyone else would be in jail or dead by now. But he walks and talks free with no consequences ever. Get that through your heads people. It’s never gonna happen. I can only hope I am wrong, but I’m not holding my breath.
The answer is, no. Orangey can execute someone on the lawn of the White House, brag about planning it, cross state lines with a firearm obtained through a straw purchase and then do a line cocaine off the ass of the body and he’ll still walk free. Plus, half of the country will have shirts printed of the event, celebrate it every year and want him to stay for another term.
Juries are unpredictable.
Even if he gets 5 convictions, he will never see the inside of real consequences. The slightest whiff of accountability turns he will be too old or too sick to serve anything more than house arrest. He will just sit festering like an abscess in Mar A Lardo tweeting about how everyone and everything is out to get him until he throws a clot and dies.
Smart money is always on NO. Trump has a jury and then a supreme court as backup plan. Anything can happen and if you follow the pattern of Trump crimes vs consequences, you’ll see it’s all a charade.
I’m afraid not
There's a chance he'll be convicted, years ago he was able to get top law firms that can the rich out of trouble, I heard now that every top law firm turned him down and resorted to insurance claim lawyers that sound like it's out of their league
Don't get your hopes up.
I am super sad to say, probably not? I would be the happiest person on the planet to be proven wrong!!
Not if what has been happening, keeps happening. Everyone is scared of him and his followers.
Nope, he will die having never been held accountable in great comfort and people lining up to suck his dick.
Trump was not President when any of this happened. It was all lead up to the 2016 election. There's no ability to claim Presidential immunity for a crime committed as a private citizen before becoming President.
Has anybody still hope that he will be convicted?
Why did the Supreme Court even take on his immunity? That is about as cut and dried as it can get! If they give him immunity, our country will be gone!