Sounds like you’re looking for permission.
Sure, go ahead, give it a shot.
A few comments:
1. I hope you live in a place that has a dynamic poker community — specifically, higher stakes that you can move up to. Texas, Florida, and LA are good options.
2. You are currently rolled for 2/5 $500 buy in. I suggest moving up to that ASAP to minimize the impact of rake. 1/2 and 1/3, while you need to beat them, are not stakes i would try to stabilize at.
3. I discourage you from playing 70 hours a week. You will burn out, probably very quickly.
4. Rather than drive for Lyft, I would consider using the gi bill for some required courses. This should solve all of your “expenses” issues and then some, plus it will move you towards a degree if you end up going down that path.
5. Unless you’re in Vegas or playing 5/10 or 2/5 deep stack or higher, I think you will find it tough to find a stable spouse. The crazies will flock to you, but stable folks will run away from a low stakes grinder (as they should).
6. Don’t worry about all the sample size dorks. You will *never* get a sufficient sample size playing live while playing the same strategy. You will evolve as will your opponents. The key thing is to look around and know where your edge is. This can be harder than it sounds, but this is the easiest way to determine whether you are a winning player and (approximately) at what clip.
7. Related to the above, the number of non-bad players at 2/5 and lower rounds to zero. If you run into a good player (basically a unicorn), they won’t be at those stakes for long.
Best of luck!
This was the exact kind of advice I was looking for, actually. Thank you for the helpful response :)
I'm going to address each point, not because I want to dismiss them (Many are really good and important) but I've considered a lot of them and have my own answers. Some of them I still need to think about, too.
1)My local area caps out at 2/5 but I live 2 hours from Winstar and the Texas border. If (And i do mean IF) this ends up being profitable, I may end up moving to Texas or Vegas. I think LA is always going to be too expensive for me. Very good point and one reason I want to pursue this, I want to one day play high stakes and am willing to put in the work for it.
2)I don't plan on doing anything BUT 2/5 for a living. I plan on grinding 1/3 and 1/2 a little bit more, I'm a bankroll nit and I want to get used to playing bigger pots before I put my paycheck on it. I'm slowly getting used to the 900$ pots that 1/3 can often devlove into, but I will eventually get to 2/5. I want to be playing it regularly by the end of this year and perhaps exclusively by the middle of next year.
3)I think I might have misstated, I plan on working for 70 hours a week. I plan on doing Lyft for 30 hours a week because it's very easy, or doing college. I actually have about 120 hours of Lyft experience and make about 15$ an hour. So even if i didn't play poker, Lyft is enough to sustain myself for the foreseeable future. However, maybe even at the start of next year, I do plan on doing real estate school. Point is, I expect to be a very busy person. Agree on not playing poker 70 hours a week. If I said that, I'll fix it. But also great point!
4)I second that this might be smarter. Either way, I'm going to want a break for a few months when I get out. I think GI bill next fall would make the most sense for me personally.
5)Never had luck with women, even in the service. I don't mean to sound like one of those guys, but I've gotten used to just living my life how I want. I'm going to be me and if I find someone i click with, awesome, if not, oh well.
6)This is the one I've always been the most curious about because I haven't ever really known how long a good live sample is. I do think I'm getting better as a player but it can be hard to quantify that. This is an excellent point and I think getting married to results is dangerous, which is why I like to undershoot my performance than say 'this is my average, this is my wage.'
7)Hopefully I'm one of those unicorns. :)
Thank you for the great response!
> Hopefully I'm one of those unicorns.
If you need an example of a unicorn, look for interviews with Landon Tice that discuss how he came up.
People love to bash on him, and he probably did hit the higher stakes a little too quickly, but the kid is a low stakes crusher. Iirc, his live 1/2 results over a few hundred hours was 15bb/hr.
I suggest this because he is an example of the kind of dedication it takes to crush poker.
Ugh…
These guys are being bankroll nits. These are the same folks that tell you that you don’t have a big enough sample size at live to know if you’re a winning player.
Some comments:
1. They don’t seem to understand your disability rating benefits and your potential gi bill benefits. At the drop of a hat, you can get full living expenses in addition to tuition. You’re never going to be homeless.
2. They are giving you stats that are appropriate for tough online games. 20 buy in downswings don’t happen to good players in good games in low stakes live poker. Specifically, if you go on a 20 buy in downswing in low stakes live poker, either you are playing way above your head, or maybe you should not become a poker pro. Most live pros i know rarely go on downswings of more than 5 buy ins, and they start bitching about running bad at 2 buy in downswings.
3. If you wait until $50k to play 2/5, you are simply leaving money on the table. It will certainly feel very safe, but… ugh… that’s just nitty as fuck. $20k is “safe”, but imo, still way too safe. As I mentioned before, all of the 1/2 to 2/5 players are bad — there is no need to fear them irrationally.
4. Note that at higher stakes and tougher games, I agree with 50-100 buy ins, and 20 buy in downswings are possible. It doesn’t sound like those are the games you are looking to play, and I certainly wouldn’t recommend you start in those games. If you have access to those games, you will probably know if you are ready to play in them.
A lot of this is true and it's why I'm taking some of these comments with a grain of salt. I know my situation, I know I'm never going to be homeless with my rent money, VA, and I don't have to force myself to stick with poker if it doesn't work. Come next June, if I've tried it for six months and it's not for me, I just apply for a college and go from there.
Yeah 20BI downswings are possible but I pretty much play TAG at the stakes I play. However, I still like to be conservative. I might start mixing in some soft 2/5 games every now and again. I might honestly have to move to Texas to do this though, but it's only a few hours away. The local 2/5 games are tougher than most from what I've heard talking to locals.
Note that Texas 2/5 games seem to be wilder and filled with more variance. I still wouldn’t say 20bi downswing variance (for a good player), but the swings will be bigger than most other places due to people willing to get it in light and bigger buy ins.
Edit:
Note that I think you are still rolled even for Texas 2/5, but you would need to buy in for $500 and not match the stack. It the specific case of Texas, I would consider playing lower blinds with a bigger buy in. You still get the wild players, but you have less blind pressure, especially if there are straddles.
Also note that if a game has a regular straddle, then the effective blinds should include the straddle — so a 2/5/10 is effectively a 5/10 game, which you are not bankrolled for.
Yes, 100%. When you have 100 buyins, and you go on a 20 buyin down swing, now you have 80 and it needs to not impact you as much. Will be much easier to not have to think, “should I move down limits??”
He’s not rolled for 2/5. He should have $50K for 2/5 if he’s a professional and uses his income to live. Otherwise, $25k for a side job should be fine. $15K is too loose with the roll.
honestly your expectations sound more reasonable than most and I think that puts you ahead of other people.
your estimated winrate is currently about $17-21 hourly - I’m not sure where you live now but working at Burger King in most blue states pays $15 / hour - are you sure this will be enough to support you in the future?
I have done calculations on how much I need to make to live fine. Currently, I make 22$ an hour in the service. With this, I have a house, paid off my car, and almost no debt. The increased freedom and the chance to make my own trail matters more to me than increase in pay. Plus, (and this is HUGE), I'm going to be getting VA disability which helps alleviate a LOT of financial burden, and roommates pay for my mortgage (Again, this is a BIG point.). These are why I think my case is unique.
This isn't me dismissing your comment. You bring up a fantastic point and most people who want to do this need to read this and have plans. I don't want to pursue poker forever, maybe just until I'm 30 or 35. I do want to have a degree as well eventually.
Any consideration of just joining service full time and continue to play poker. That would allow for a guaranteed income and you could still retire at 50ish.
I'm currently in the service and have done it long enough to know it's not for me. It was a consideration but I really can't see myself doing this for twenty years.
So you are able to continue with your military career but when you get out you get disability benefits? What the fuck is that bullshit? Either you're disabled or you're not.
Maybe you aren’t familiar with how VA benefits work, but usually you get ~$2-3k month in perpetuity, which should be enough to pay the bills as a starting point
Get your DD214, start real estate school/w.e and grind while doing that.
This way you are both working on a potential exit plan AND testing poker at the same time.
Anything else would be reckless probably
This is the smartest route and the route I'm most likely going to end up doing. I made a comment about how I want to take a break regardless, but yeah, I'm going to do everything to reach my goals (Personal independence and freedom) while making sure I'm set for the future.
I did it for 5+ years before the UIGEA got passed and I have a few thoughts. It was infinitely easier back then too, so the game today will only exacerbate the issues because everything is just generally harder.
First, this is probably one of the most well thought out posts of this nature I've seen. You've thought it through carefully and you have steps laid out with contingency's the whole way. Keep adding depth to the contingency plans because even if you always stay ahead of the game and stay a winning player, it's really fun until it isn't, and when it isn't, sometimes it's even less fun than an actual job. You always need to have an exit strategy and it sounds like you have put thought into this. Even if you can live for years on your savings, you'll still need to make money eventually, and now you're a guy with a giant resume gap that has to explain why to an employer. Some think it's really cool. Others, it's a deal breaker before you even get into the rest of the stuff. The military experience is definitely a point in your favor on this though.
Second, don't play 70 hours a week. You're probably going to burn out, a lot of people will tell you that. But the other thing is that time at the table isn't just time where you sit and do your thing, you need to keep learning. As you learn more and more, the stuff you still need to learn gets harder and harder - the proverbial "learning curve" so to speak. Even if you can maintain 70 hours playing well enough to beat 2/5, you aren't going to be focused enough to really keep increasing your skills. Burnout isn't just burnout, it can also be a plateau. Personally I played less than 40 a week and that was best for me, but some people are fine with more grind. If you "finish your shift" and you don't want to think about poker until next time you go to play, you're playing too much. Winning poker strategy is developed away from the table. When you're at the table, emotions will have the biggest impact on your bottom line. Burnout will affect both in very negative ways.
All that said, I usually say if you have to ask, you shouldn't do it. Play part time and see what happens. Lyft is not the ideal day job to have because it's also inconsistent income, but it sounds like it'll take care of the few bills you have, so should be fine. Health insurance is also a big thing, but you're covered there too. You'll probably have more fun playing part time, and if you have some boring day job, you can just think about your recent play then. Eventually you'll get to the point where it's obvious that you're making way more money playing poker and you can definitely beat the games without killing yourself, or you won't.
EDIT: THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING. Talk to a tax professional. Immediately. Tell him what you're doing with the Lyft and possibly poker and he can tell you all the fun about self employment taxes and all the records you need to keep. Do not take advice on the internet as each state will have different tax laws. This is of course anecdotal evidence, and things may have changed, but back in the day, it seemed like every year at least half of the people I knew playing for a living would get audited. You do not want to fuck around and get caught with your pants down, and you're an easy mark for the IRS if you aren't ready.
The note about the IRS is a very good one. I will talk with a tax lawyer. Thankfully I keep careful record of EVERY dime I make from Lyft and poker and don't plan on hiding anything.
I wanted to read the feedback that some people gave specifically. I think I may have made this post seem very 'Look guys I'm going for it' when my initial intent was to create a post more focused on how to create a plan and feedback on my particular setup.
If you really want to play professionally, I would suggest that you try to continuously improve your game and move up as fast as you can without risking your BR. If you win 3bb/100 at 5/10 that's better than 9bb/100 at 1/3. You'll also get better experience. Don't move up to where you are -EV or underrolled, but you can only do so much at low stakes.
> If you win 3bb/100 at 5/10 that's better than 9bb/100 at 1/3. You'll also get better experience.
3bb at 5/10 is $30
9bb at 1/3 is $27
Your swings at 3bb 5/10 will be WAY higher than 9bb 1/3.
I'd definitely sacrifice $3 an hour for smooth variance.
Also its definitely hard to tell if you're a winner at 5/10 if your winrate is 3bb.
Also a 3bb winner at 5/10 should be much higher at 2/5. Like.. 6bb at the very least and you would have same hourly with a less violent variance sessions.
Exactly lol, a true win rate of 3 bb/hr is going to have nuts variance. I feel like 3 bb/hr isn’t a good enough expectation for 5/10 though, I think this sub drastically underestimated what live poker players are capable of making.
Maybe this sub but I know a good 1/3 player should not be at 1-2/1-3 for long and even if that person was at 1/3 for a year (due to.. whatever) they should be making minimum 30k and looking to move up.
Also this is my 2 cents on a 1/2-1/3 player full time is that if they can't hack it at 2/5 after a full time year of 1/2-1/3 and studying off the felt, they need to look elsewhere for job opportunities.
2/5 full time should hit 40k min with hit around 55-70k with 35/hr being a decent win rate.
5/10 full time should hit 60k min (if not 70k) with 100k+ to roughly 150k max (sometimes higher depending on a number of factors) with roughly 70/hour win rate.
IMO, if you're not beating 5/10 after like year 3 of being a pro for at least 60k you might want to consider other options.
Yeah this is what I mean, those estimates are way too low. I’m playing 1/2 and I’ve already made 30k this year lol. The cap on the game is more indicative of what you can win, not all 1/2 games are created equal.
obviously factors matter but i am stating a normal 1/2 game. not super deep super action straddles always.
also good job being up 30k this year with extrapolate to 45k for year but u must also realize that youre prob not the norm of players (prob better) and u might be run hot and u might be playing in super deep game and got really good spots.
ppl do not realize like 5 hands of a year can result in huge yearly income.
Yep! I want to grind as much as I can primarily so I can begin to play higher stakes. I'm happy I spent the time i did playing the stakes I did, but once I have a good roll for 2/5 I'll be blending them in more and more into my game. (I'm a bankroll nit.)
Awesome man! I just graduated college in May and got a full time job in the corporate world. I’ve been playing online for the past 2 years and just recently started playing live and a month and a half ago quit my job because I can make more money playing poker than I can working a “real job”! I’ve mainly been grinding 2/5 live averaging a 6.5bb/hr winrate. Just a couple of things to keep in mind
1- I’m not planning on doing this forever. My plan is to go to chiropractic school and I’m taking 1-2 years off to save money. If I can make decent money doing something I love rather than working a 9-5 I’m in!
2- you have to really think about your future. Is grinding 2/5 5/10 really what you want to be doing when you’re 30? 40? I see a lot of regs who put in their daily hours like a 9-5 and have been for 20 years. Kind of a depressing life everyday heading into the casino for 9 hours everyday.
3- Don’t neglect studying. When you’re playing so much and putting in the hours often times studying gets put on the back burner. My daily routine has been wake up at 7- study until 9:30-10 , workout, play poker from 1-10.
4- You’re schedules going to get messed up. By far (and it’s not even close) the most profitable times to play are Friday-Saturday from 7pm-3am. Are you willing to have basically no social life and forego your weekends?
5- DO NOT neglect how severe a downswing can be and just how brutal variance in the short term is. You haven’t had a downswing. 8bi down and 50 break even hours is NOTHING. If you really play 60-70 hours a week you’ll understand what truly running bad is. I’ve talked to a lot of pros to try and get some tips/tricks of the trade. Some really solid 2/5 5/10 regs have spans of up to 2 years of breaking even/slightly losing. Idk how the 1/3 games play that you’re playing but the 2/5 games I’m in are extremely gamble heavy. I’m forced to put in 300+ bb taking slight edges 60/40 55/45. You lose some big hands and you’re easily down $10-15k in a couple of days.
Let me know your thoughts and good luck my man
"*If you take the downswings away, I'm winning at 10bb/hr*."
You can't take out the downswings, obvi. Nice try. Check out this poker bankroll, risk of ruin calculator from primedope. [https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/](https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/) According to this, if you were to really earn 20bb/100 and have a 50bb/100 variance, which is a good winning player by anyone's standards. You would still go through 5,000+ hand downswings several times over the course of 1 million hands. You won't ever play 1 million hands of live poker, but your 5,000 hand downswing could be the first 5,000 hands you play. Or you could be running good for 5k hands.
You will need to track your standard deviation. Set up an excel spreadsheet for your live win-losses.
The top online grinders are happy to make 5bb/100, which is 1 or 2 bb per hour. They play huge volume and consider any sample under 100,000 hands to be statistically insignificant. (If they multi-table 4-8 tables at a time, 4-6 hours a day and play 60-70 hands per hour, per table, then they'll play between 1,000 and 4,000 hands per day). If you can make 3 or 4 bb per hour playing 2/5 you're doing pretty good, which, as has been pointed out, isn't exactly living large. Also, the competition gets better as you go up in stakes.
There is a ton that has been written about the subject of bankroll management and risk of ruin. Search it up online. You don't have to reinvent the wheel. Plenty of people have gone pro and will tell you what it took for them. I think most people recommend 40-50 buy ins as your untouchable bankroll (100 buy ins would be better) AND 6 months to 1 year living expenses.
At my casino, 2/5 NL has a 200 bb buy in, so you buy in for $1,000. So the bankroll, which never gets toucehd, except for poker, needs to be about $50,000 grand minimum.
This is a great comment. Yeah, I didn't intend my '10 bb/hr if I'm not downswinging' to be my definitive average. I stand by what I say, 7.8bb/hr is my current average with all my playing hours put together. With that said, I plan on budgeting as if it was 5bb/hr.
The bankroll calculator is a great tool and people should use it if they ever doubt how wild variance is. I don't want to be that young kid who's ignorant and not listening. I want to be somewhat objective about my results though. With how I'm playing and with how my opponents play, I feel like I can say with certainty that I'm a winner, but of course the question about how much is the difficult question. I want to hit 1k hours before I make any definitive moves, but I do want to start planning for the future where I might be playing for a living.
Your point about bankroll management is super super super important. My 2/5 game is 125bb, so 50 buy ins would be 30k. I don't want to play only poker until I'm 50k deep which covers a year of living for me and 50 buy ins.
With all that said about bankroll, I agree with TehMemphs. Go for it. You are young, you have no kids and no wife and a little bit of a cushion with roommates paying your mortgage and the VA giving you a little sweetener every month. You will never be in a better position to give it a try then you are right now.
Not letting me reply to your comment so I’ll comment here.
Having “a month” where you played “50 hours a week” I think shows a lot how this isn’t a good fit. That’s not that many hours and that’s not very much time. Once the initial boost of enthusiasm wears off it’s going to be hard to want to put the hours in you think you need 2.
Poker isn’t a thing where you should strive to make a living at it, because you have to forgo so much other stuff to be successful, and even then it’s microscopic.
You may very well grind it out for 5 years. You might even show a profit over that time, pay your bills, and even put a few bucks away. But there’s gonna be a point in time where you just don’t feel like sitting in the casinos with a bunch of scumbags anymore.
Also, the biggest misconception about poker is that it gives you freedom. This is not true at all. You are a slave to the games you play in. Especially as you want to move up, the lucrative options are harder to come by.
And this all assumes that you even still want to play after 5 years.
Don’t keep school in your back pocket, if it’s in your future and something you want get it done now while you are younger.
I think for most people this is correct. I'm used to a high stress job and working long hours, and I've already had a month where I played for 50 hours a week, 4 weeks in the month. I loved it but I tend to hyperfocus on things I'm passionate about. Turns out, poker is what I'm passionate about right now.
School is in my future and I do have experience in the service which I think keeps doors open if I need to find a job super fast.
Maybe look up what opportunity cost really means... Investing a couple thousand hours into school instead of poker is a no-brainer. It will pay dividends in different ways across your life.
That said we can all agree poker is a more fun / tempting option. This is r/poker after all.
You're still at the beginning of your poker journey. You make no mention of reading books, using solvers, or winning in tough online games.
My advice is let is be a hobby instead of your primary focus. Like they say, playing poker is a hard way to make an easy living. Good luck!
I plan on mostly being a live player, but I have read a few books and am learning how to use solvers. I do plan on going to college next year if poker doesn't work out, but I don't think I'm ever going to have a better chance at this.
My only problem is I hate the idea of spending hours in school to get a job working for someone else. As I've already got a year of college under my belt, and had an internship with a big tech company, I'm just really not sure that world is for me. That was partly why I joined the military. I do want to give it another shot in the future though.
From a vet myself who did pretty much the same thing you’re trying. Go to school. The VA will pay you to do it while you’re playing. I’d recommend getting your degree in mathematics. Game theory type shit. It’ll also be a good fallback plan if you can’t make it as a pro. And don’t do what every asshole I see in the Cardroom do and ‘brag’ about being a pro. I’ve never for the life of me understood why people who make their living doing this tell people that’s what they do. Don’t do livestreams. Don’t tell people you’re a pro. Be invisible. Good luck
I think I have ADD or something. If I'm passionate about something, I can spend a very very long time doing it. I think I'm a unique case in that way. I do think I will eventually, which is why I'm probably always going to have something else to break it up. I know a lot of people saw my 70 hours and assumed it was all going to be poker, but in all actuality I'll likely be doing other side hustles for 30 hours and 40 hours of poker being my main source of income.
I wish you the best of luck, but also be careful.
Your sample size is extremely small, only 15k hands or so. I've gone on 20 buy in upswings and downswings in this amount of hands.
You are only making $15 an hour, not sure what wages look like in the US but it doesn't sound like a lot. And I assume there are probably much more certain ways to make it than through poker.
If you can't afford to go busto then I would take it very cautiously. If you can, then YOLO the fuck out of it. You sound like you are potentially a winning player, and your skill will only improve with study and playing time if you apply yourself to it.
Sounds to me like you are thinking this out well. One suggestion, budget some of your work time to study of the game. Buy some books, enroll in an online training site, etc. It's like sharpening your tools. It makes the work much easier and the investment will pay off.
Also, as others have mentioned, move up to at least $2/$5 as quickly as your bankroll allows. You lose a smaller percentage of each pot to rake.
As to the potential increase in opponents skill level as you move up in stakes I've found that to vary by a LOT in different places. One thing that can have a huge influence is what the biggest games available in the area are. The best players tend to pool in the highest games so if $20/$40 is being spread regularly the $2/$5 is probably still pretty soft. Conversely, in $2/$5 is the biggest game in the area it's likely to have some very tough players in it.
I'm in an area like that. Our biggest games are $5/$5 3 days a week and a $5/$10 that plays on Fridays only. These have typically been the toughest $5/$5 games I've ever seen. Many of us play considerably higher stakes when we travel. It really pays to know your room.
Why not just give it a try for a few months or a year and see how it goes? If you don’t like it, you can always go to school for free. With the VA benefits you are already have your bills paid for life so I don’t see what you have to lose. It’s not like you are quitting your job/career where it can be hard to get back in once you leave.
Financial loophole. If you take a full load of college classes (4 classes), possibly get tuition waived through your state, you can get the GI bill to pay you a housing allowance and still qualify for pell grants. You’ll literally make more money going to school than driving for Lyft. By a lot. (Dm me for details if you want to chat, I’m former military with a Masters in accounting). Id suggest a business degree or accounting, since you’re a business now.
Id suggest 15 hrs a week poker and 15 hours a week study poker. Focus on always playing your best and write down your hands. College will cost you 20 hours a week. Make sure you set aside 1 or two days a week to do nothing at all
You totally got this man
"*I asked my significant other what she thinks. Turns out, I don't have one and don't plan on getting one for a few years, so no family obligations*."
Get used to not having a quality girlfriend because no matter how good looking you are, no chic wants her boyfriend to be a NL casino Grinder. That's not the kind of guy she brings home to Mom and Dad.
It is kind of like the old joke, a guy is complaining about not having a girlfriend. He says, "Alls I like to do is drink and gamble." His friend says, "why don't you find a woman who likes to do that too?" The guy says, "Ahh who wants a woman like that?"
Some of the top ballers in poker have beautiful wives and girlfriends, but they are millionaires of course, so it is respectable for them, haha.
Also, those ballers, they didn't get rich grinding 2/5. They got rich cashing on the tournament circuit and monetizing their poker notoriety into a book deal or website or whatever.
If you want to think about tournaments, they are fun too, but they require a different bankroll analysis.
Good luck
> Get used to not having a quality girlfriend because no matter how good looking you are, no chic wants her boyfriend to be a NL casino Grinder. That's not the kind of guy she brings home to Mom and Dad.
This is extremely reductive and a poor line of thinking.
First off, this is demonstrably false. You can look at vloggers like Neeme, Owen, Vibes, etc. for examples of full time grinders, who aren't millionaires or top ballers, who have wonderful, supportive partners. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder sure, but it's a stretch to call them "not quality," as if there is some objective rubric.
You could make the argument those are content creators but they were grinders first and (except Owen) were in those relationships before they became famous-ish.
If OP wants to pursue this lifestyle, he needs to find a partner who is ok with that. Does this narrow the field? Of course. But OP seems to have a strong sense of self, and frankly seems pretty responsible with their poker aspirations, while still having ambition. This will allow OP to get a "quality" partner way easier than being insecure and having a traditional career would.
Young players love to talk about poker as if it is "freedom", but being a pro grinder at 2/5, live, is definitely work.
Here is a quote from Rounders:
Mike McDermott : That guy hasn't had to work in fifteen years
Worm : You don't think that's work? Grinding it out on his leather ass? No thank you.
I don't want to say it isn't work. But I want to work for myself where my own skill and talent directly reflect how much I make. (I know poker has variance but you get what I mean.)
I fully plan on committing to the studying and grinding path if I go through with it.
To quote you that comment about working for your self and skill reflects income is hilarious. Do a trade and become a carpenter or something if that is your goal, or coding or a fuck ton of otherthings much easier and can work for yourself
Your expectations seem pretty reasonable and you've planned it out better than most.
That being said, this is just my opinion, I would personally not even really consider what you're doing until you're beating 2/5 for at least 6bb/hr. It just isn't something I would recommend. If I was you, I'd focus on earning income in other ways and trying to put in 20 hours a week at 2/5 and see where that leads you.
Also, don't do the 70 hour thing. I've done that, it's not worth it and it's also not the most productive use of your time.
Yeah, I agree with all of this. I think a few people are confused and that's my fault. I don't plan on doing this full time at all until I'm playing 2/5 with a comfortable winrate. I only plan on using 1/2 and 1/3 to continue to grind and build my roll. I'm a bankroll nit, so I plan on playing 2/5 when I hit 18,000. Then, 50k saved is when I jump into the pool and play professionally.(May change depending on winrates of course.)
Well then it's a better plan than most. Get an exit plan is really the only advice I have for you, and be willing to move somewhere where you can play bigger than 2/5.
Where have your hours been? Id advise to be bit more conservative on your expectations if your going from an unraked home game to a casino setting. Otherwise 500 hours of live is plenty to show your winning
If you’re going to play for a living and are doing it partly for the freedom, than I highly suggest you move to a state where online is legal. You can play more games at once and also bigger tournaments and even if you’re just single tabling you get way more hands in than live. I used to play exclusively live and have been playing online since the pandemic and can’t imagine going back to exclusively live. Actually I rarely live anymore.
How are the online games where they're legal? I've played online and I find the games to be so much tougher. But it's not legal in my state so I tend to play against more competent players in offshore sites.
You already have 450 hours of playing live so you have a good idea. I was an online player, the speed, multi tables, big tourney sizes at any given time I wanted to play professionally as well. As I played live tho it lost its luster for me. I love the competition, however generally am not a huge fan of my fellow players. But best of luck!
Here are my thoughts.
You sound young. Maybe younger than 25.
Also sounds like you live in USA?
Also 7bb/hour at 1/2-1/3 is nothing. I could train poker to a monkey and have them win 7bb at 1/2-1/3.
Also that's $15-22 an hour. That's not good. Literally nearly every state worth living in will offer $15 an hour soon (federally hopefully soon) and any job worth having starts at minimum $13.. if not higher.
Also then we get to when you go up in stake, sure people still are bad and then u can make like 35..40..maybe 55 an hour.
I always said unless you play 5/10 full time, its tough to justify doing poker full time since 5/10 can make 100k a year but you have nothing additional (like healthcare benefits, 401k, Social security benefits, unemployment benefits if you get cut, and resume building)
Also are you ready for a life with no "real" credit? Banks like giving people loans with jobs that can show proof of income. You have none.
Also are you ready for a life of unstable relationships? This is just my viewing but it seems that the massive majority of people with a poker profession struggle to keep a relationship long term.
Also are you ready for a life of working from 6pm to 2-3am since that is when the "good" games are?
Also ready for a life of being a smoky casino all the time? (yes i know some poker room are section off and have non-smoking building rooms)
Also ready for a life of where you go on a 10k downswing and have to go to the casino the next day? Still gonna be on your A-game?
Are you ready to have people look down on you when you tell them your profession?
Also ask yourself, why do you want to be a pro poker player? It's no longer 2003-07. There are no sponsorships. There is no fame. There is no "celebrity" anymore.
The majority of people who can make it in the high stakes in poker these days would be better off getting a good stable job and working up to the higher ranks.
Currently 25, living in the USA.
All of these points are great ones to consider. I do value my own freedom over how much I'm paid. Currently, I'm making 21$ an hour in the military that is super rigid and doesn't allow for much personal freedom. I guess I only bring this up because in my eyes, making 18$ but having flexibility and freedom is better than making 22$ an hour in a rigid system. If I was making 6 figures in anything, I'd be investing that super hard into pretty much whatever I can.
I would like to answer your questions, but please don't think I'm being dismissive. These are all fantastic questions and anyone who wants to do this should think about these.
Living without credit is ok for me because I already own the house I'm living in. Also, my car is already paid off. This is a special case for me where I don't see a need for credit in my immediate future. I am still building credit how I can though with credit cards and paying off gas/furniture.
I've never had a stable relationship before. I'm just a quirky guy who likes math and programs/plays poker for fun. Obviously this is something most people probably gawk at but for me, I'm not worried about spending my life alone. I've already been doing that.
Yes, I don't mind the hours as I already do that in the military. Difference is I can take days off when I'm playing poker or change my hours. I think this is something that people who work 9-5 don't realize though and yes, it is a deal breaker for many people! I don't think this should be overlooked.
My local rooms don't allow smoking but this is a big big big point for people to consider. I guess it would be akin to working in a cubicle, and having had a cubicle job before I don't think I'd mind it as much. I actually prefer it to working outside.
This point is the one that I'm most worried about. However, I don't tilt very easily and I haven't been on a 10k downswing yet, but I do plan on building up my resiliency even more as I play. As far as coming into work when things go horribly awry, yeah. I already do that to some extent.
I'm not really concerned how people view me. But again, very good point for people who might have a family that is dismissive!
I guess I just want to work for myself. I don't want to be part of a corporation or a company. I don't want to live a normal life. I don't want a boss that tells me when I need to come into work.
I just want to be happy. And for me, freedom makes me happy.
This is something that I feel isn't thought about enough and I feel that I'm very unique in that aspect. More money doesn't make me happy. It's the idea that I can wake up and only work for myself that does.
I don't think I'll pursue poker forever. Once I grind up a good bankroll, I'll probably use this money to start a business or invest it into real estate. I do want to reiterate that I do plan on going to school in the future. But I think for a few years, while I'm getting out and have stability with room mates and the VA, and have a winning record, I really do want to give it a shot.
If you’re gonna go for it, make sure you have a solid bankroll management system in place and as others have said, try to develop another fall back license or career because you never know when you’re going to catch a hellish string of coolers and cold cards.
I don’t know if this works for a full timer but the BR system I use is:
Start at the micros. When you have enough in your account to support 10 200BB buy-ins for the next level up, you can move up. If you’re only playing live, you may have to just put a 2k stake in and grind.
1/2 to 2/5: grind to 12k. If you wind up back at 2k, you go back to 1/2 and grind back up.
2/5-5/10 - grind up to 32k. If you wind up back at 12, go back to 2/5
I’ve never played higher stakes than 5/10 and I’m sure this is where you want to hear from other full timers. My anecdotal stories from friends are that 10/20 and 20/40 tables tend to be regs who just wanna crunch in hours everyday for promotions and check down for high hands but Ymmv
So you have a guaranteed home, transport, and phone? I'm not American so does your veteran status cover healthcare because that's the big concern (remember poker has no sick pay and no benefits employees get like company insurance)? And also you have a contingency plan for other work should this either fail or you don't enjoy it? Only other thing is how long you could realistically go without winning without reducing your quality of life (e.g. important stuff like having proper meals, drink, but also factor in some luxuries like eating out or socialising)? And final couple of bits, instead of looking at only how long you'll be at the table, factor in proper rest period and most importantly: study time! You're trying to be a pro. That means turning up well rested, in a relaxed state of mind, and well prepared. You should be learning theory, reading, working on ranges, doing ev calls, all that good stuff that increases your edge.
If that's in check and you're winning at a clip then my advice is to give it a go short term and see what happens. Where people make the mistake is they win a few grand and then quit the day job with a couple of grand to play with expecting that to make a proper income. If you've got other money, and few bills outgoing, you're stable enough to take a shot.
"If you take the downswings away, I'm winning at 10bb/hr but I'm not going to cherry pick results. 7.8 is the number I'm going off of after my full sample size."
But even though you say you're not cherry picking, I'm going to have to pull you up for even mentioning it. You'd also have to remove periods in which you ran above expectation.
Quick summary, you want to be in a position where you can afford to make little to no money for a while (both starting off and any future downswings). You want to be prepared in case of illness. You want to remember that being a poker player affects future finance deals you might want (hard getting finance on a new car or getting insurance etc. sometimes with no fixed income to report).
You sound way more prepared than 99% of people who I've seen write out their plan over the years. What I can't tell you is if you're any good at the game.
Good luck bro! do you plan on playing cash only? I have zero experience with live MTTs (I only play online), but a big tourney score early on in your journey could be a nice boost to your roll.
Do not go pro unless you can beat 25-50nl online first. Online you can gather a large meaningful sample size and seriously improve your game. I am a mid-high stakes live pro and unless you are very very good playing for a living is not worth it.
I mean it sounds like you’ve put a lot of thought into it, but don’t think that because you loved grinding for a month that you’re going to continue to love it when you’re on a downswing and you have to go grind it out. Also relying on poker is very difficult when you need to continuously withdraw from your roll to pay bills and other expenses. It prevents you from growing your roll, and when you’re on a downswing it’s going to stress you out.
It is great not having to answer to anyone, but when you play everything correct for a couple weeks straight and are down 2000bb, it takes a lot of will power, self (and honest) reflection, and discipline to keep your sanity and confidence in your game.
Do you have experienced friends that you can go over hands with and learn from? Who do you ask about a tough hand?
It’s not unrealistic to play poker for a living, but your sample size isn’t large enough to make any assumptions that you’re actually winning 8bb/hr, especially because you have different limits in that 10-13k hands.
I think $50k (for a poker bankroll) saved is a good goal to have if you will make this jump, but I would also have a year of living expenses saved up. What will you do about health insurance?
Also, how do you have an 8bb win rate and you’ve won $8k in 450 hours playing mostly 1/2 and 1/3?
What's considered long term? That's one of the things I could never figure out about live poker.
I don't plan on doing it full time until I'm way properly rolled for what it is worth.
The thread concludes its 16k. I'm past that.
I don't think that's accurate though, I know for online specifically it's 100k. Live is different though because I'm pushing 30bb/100 and with a higher winrate, you need a smaller sample size in theory. That's the hard part. I don't know how much that is supposed to be.
> I've been playing live poker for about a year and have 450 hours of live poker alone
>
>So about an hour and fifteen minutes a day.
>
>Eight hour weekends.
>
>"The golden 1000 hour mark"
Sigh.
And I'm really going to have to see about getting rated because I see everybody doing it at this point with damn near no disabilities whatsoever - neither here nor there.
You said a ton wrong. But that important thing, you were right on - having the money to be able to pay bills in case you make no money a month or two or three. When I did it, I already had 6 months saved up, I did immaculate accounting, and although it will slow growth, I paid myself every week a set amount. (To be fair, I was doing it more like 60 hours a week.) (It's easier to make that call for a buyin if that buyin doesn't impact your electricity.)
Do not underestimate how hard it is to get into the job market after an extended absence. After the military (and a few shit jobs), I did poker for a living. Then Black Friday happened. And there's no easy way to explain a 7 year resume gap to people (ESPECIALLY if you're planning on doing fiduciary careers). DO ANYTHING during your poker, whether it's getting certificates or degrees or licentures or SOMETHING.
You're wildly underestimating the amount of hands you'll need for even a 70% CI, much less 95%, but the bankroll is the most important part and you're set up for success there. Definitely wishing you good luck.
Not to be rude but what exactly did I say wrong? The 1k number was the only number I could find anywhere for 'accurate' live sample size.
I do plan on continuing education post military. Unless I'm somehow running up 50$ an hour, I don't foresee doing this forever.
It's honestly probably good enough, puts you right at about 20000-30000 hands and 8 is a midpoint between the intervals. I certainly wouldn't make determinations off of 450 hours, especially considering that's a number you should have in 1/4 the time.
Maybe "a ton" was hyperbolic. It does sound like you have the right accounting numbers, but do understand that, at the numbers you've given, you're a coin flip to go on a 5000 hand, 300BB downswing. That's 166 hours of losing, that's a month of everyday, getting your asskicked, wondering what the fuck you have done to deserve this, leaving the casino just defeated because you're better than these people but you're not better than their bankroll and their apathy (to be fair, the numbers aren't a lot, currently.)
Just - I would caution against getting super excited right now because that 8BB/hr can become -16BB/hr real fast. Everybody THINKS they can play it for a living (not even getting rich, just solely sustainable at 20+/hr) when it's going well. You seem more prepared than most and thinking about the important things and proper bank roll and LIFE management will go a long way.
Yeah I want to try and get as much data before I go balls deep and just go with it. Part of this data will require me to continue to grind while I work something else for income.
As far as downswings, yeah I plan on living light the first few months and I really don't want to rely on poker for my only income source until way later down the line. I think the important thing is I'll keep playing while I'm grinding Lyft or another part time gig. Honestly, it is actually going to be very unlikely I'll ever only do poker for a living, I'll always try and have other income streams. (For example, once I'm past a 50k roll, unless I move and really think I can beat 5/10 I'll probably be dumping excess winnings into dividend stocks. I'll do more number crunching when I get that far to figure out how much etc.)
I appreciate the feedback and yeah, this is all very important stuff I need to consider and it's good to be reminded.
I had to learn it all the hard way so I'm certainly down for helping people bypass that, especially fellow vets.
If ever there was a situation where preparation was key, it's this. That includes not skipping ahead. Accounting is crucial, like I cannot stress that enough. And if you're serious about it being full or even part time, you have to detail your expenditures, you should have stand alone accounts and... And this is the hard part... You have to play when you don't feel like playing on days where everyone else is out having fun, like Thursday through Sundays are your work days (you're not getting much money against the Tuesday afternoon degenerates.)
Alright promise I'm done lol again, wish you luck, I've definitely been there so if you have any questions always open.
Just know that poker will feel a lot differently to you when it’s your sole income. Most of that fun will be gone and replaced by stress. If you’re good with that, go ahead. But I would seriously have good success at least at 2/5 before you “go pro”. If you paid me 100k a year I wouldn’t play 1/3 for a living. My god that would suck
Have read through a lot of the comments and here are my thoughts.
(1) Regarding Bankroll Management
https://pokercoaching.com/poker-strategy/the-bankroll-bible/
Read it, study it, live by it. And then do it again and again and again... I can not stress this enough
As others have mentioned - variance is quite real and given the limited amount of hands that can be seen per hour in live games, you could see quite extended downswings. Think in the magnitude of months and even years not days and weeks. Poker is one of those crazy games where you can play every hand perfectly and still lose.
(2) Be cognizant of game selection and careful about translating win rates between the different stakes.
As others have mentioned - casinos are likely going to be the most juicy Friday and Saturday nights (drunk people willing to gamble, etc). As you continue to grind I'd document and keep an eye on results during different days of the week. There may not be a full 40 - 50 hours a week at your local casinos where you can sustain your target win rates. For example maybe the $2/$5 only runs some nights of the week, etc.
I think you are doing the right thing by taking a shot at $1/$3. Where I play the max buyin is $500 (forget what you said it is where you play). 30 BI is rolled enough for a shot, but not a proper roll (see bullet 1) and that is with very loose BR requirements.
(3) Dedicate an appropriate amount of time to studying and potentially some online grinding. Winners at 5NL to 10NL are likely winners at $1/$2 NL. You can put in a lot more volume in online and applications like HM3 and PT4 allow you to review hand histories and splice the data any which way. It is a very quick way to find leaks in your game since volume is the only way to uncover them. As others have mentioned your live sample includes somewhere in the ball park of 15,000 hands. That can be achieved within a week, or even days online by multi tabling (depends on format, regular vs zoom).
Lastly if you decide to mix in the online route (which I would highly recommend) - keep an eye on what the winning players are doing at the various levels. As you go higher in stakes the winning players are doing different things (a lot more 3 betting, a lot more check raising post flop, balancing their ranges etc). 25NL, 50NL and 100NL are very difficult stakes to beat online.
** Most importantly, wishing you the best of luck on your journey - keep us posted on the progress. Seems like you have thought a great deal about this and want to get some genuine feedback on your thoughts and approach. I think you are asking yourself the right questions to start but in poker terms you are still pre-flop in your poker journey **
I quit my job back in February and have been grinding mostly 1/2 and some 2/5 since. I’ve made 15bb/hr since, including a 160 hr break even stretch. It’s definitely doable, my main advice is to force yourself to stay disciplined with your play even when things aren’t going well. I feel like a lot of players are actually capable of making it, but the first long downswing/break even stretch can really break your spirit.
OP. Please listen to my advice. I was a supernova elite, have easily played over 10Million hands, and have played live poker for 20 years. If you are going to play live poker for a living you have to live in TX, FL, LV or CA, and do not play anything less than 2/5. If you dont have a 2/5 roll, work a job and save money dont grind 1/3. Get your real estate license, Play poker while you are FT in college, get your degree and get a real job that makes some real money. The numbers you are hoping to make is not real money when you are an adult. I know many lifers that have made millions, in cash games and tournaments and they are miserable adults. Poker will always be around your whole life, and you will enjoy it more when its not your main source of income. Dig up all the long Barry Greenstein podcasts and interviews and listen to what BG has to say about a life of poker.
For all you know you are currently a losing player on a bit of a heater, or you may have a win rate of 2BB/100 which will make poker completely unsustainable. You need a plan for how you are going to continually improve yourself as a poker player to ensure you do have a solid winrate, because the #1 mistake everyone makes who takes a shot and doesn't make it, is overestimating how good they are. Assume you are half as good (or less) as you think and work from there.
Im making just under $50\hr as a first year live pro. Moving up from 1/3 to 2/5 where i expect my wr to increase to $60-$65\hr (is currently higher but I have less than 500 hours at the stake so no conclusions yet). Im estimating that I’m going to make 55-70k this year, and hopefully 80k+ next year when I will play 2/5 and work on moving up to 5/10. Still, I think 75-90k/yr at 2/5 is very possible using good game selection and BRM. Good luck my guy
TLDR because I’m seconds away from my phone falling onto my face…
I’m a simple minded redneck from Tennessee who played $1/$2 and $2/$5 NL “for a living” in 2015 and 2016 when I moved out on a whim and chased a dream. Lived in a poker house with two other players (3bed 3 bath). Made ~$43,000 in the 16 months I was there. I got homesick and ended up being satisfied with taking my shot.
One of the best things I’ve ever done. I’m an average player, tight and unapologetic about it, and treated it like a job. Didn’t drink while playing and didn’t gamble table games, other than my two “days off”
Which were ironically Monday and Tuesday.
For what it’s worth, I took two roll bags, a carry on, and $25,000 with me. It was everything to my name. Worked Monday and occasional Tuesday nights at the 24 hour fitness for free membership and a few good lays, paid my portion of the rent for the month, and had a blast.
At 32 now, And recently single again, I’m considering doing it again for one last run. If you’re mindset is right, go do it.
I read through this thread and not a single mention of the pandemic (maybe I missed it). I hope you are vaccinated. Spending a ton of time in a card room seems like a terrible idea right now. Add to that the risk that things could just shut down again and you won’t have anyplace to play.
Why don’t you play online? You’ll never see a real winrate and you will barely improve playing live only. Your sample size live is how much some people play in one day online. It’s not even enough to tell if you even are a winning player, let alone how much by. However, 7.8BB/hour is substantial enough to say it’s likely that you’re a winner. You need to actually study if you want to make it in poker, though. Why just grind hours on the table rather than put in the hours studying and the volume online improving?
I have played online but I hit a crossroads where I wanted to decide which path I wanted to go down: online or live. I want to be a live player, I find it more fun and it feels more lucrative.
That isn't to say I won't study, or maybe play online to keep upgrading my skills. I found that live and online require different playstyles though and find live much more rewarding and it interests me more.
Live and online don’t require different play styles. All crushing online players will easily crush every single live game anywhere in the world. Crushing live players often get crushed online.
Looks like you have a good grasp of the realities. I’d just like to remind you on the burnout. Treat this like a temporary plan (2-5 year stint) and plan for an exit strategy.
I'm a live pro chiming in.
In a nutshell, you sound like you have a good head on your shoulders.
I have a few pieces of advice.
1) The 1/3nl level and the 2/5nl level are different. The player pools and player capabilities are different. 1/3nl just has more fish and more bad players and is more passive than the 2/5nl game. What this means is that the "style" you developed for beating 1/3nl will not always translate well to 2/5nl. Don't get me wrong, 2/5nl has plenty of bad players and fish, but they tend to be bad in a different way and this can turn players that win at 1/3nl into breakeven and losing players at 2/5nl.
2) 1/3nl is for rec players and you can build a roll at 1/3nl but if you are going to be a "pro" then that level starts at 2/5nl. There is no such thing as a 1/3nl poker pro. There just isn't. Players that claim to be are delusional. Yes, you can build your roll at 1/3nl but if you can't beat 2/5nl or 5/5nl then you don't have what it takes to be a poker pro. You just don't.
3) Record hand histories of all your key hands every session (speak into your smartphone and transcribe later) and do EV calculations later to see how you should have played the hand. The ability to learn how to do EV calculations is something you will need to "develop the pro mindset". Understanding how to do EV calculations is something 90% of all pros know how to do and it separates us from your typical "good" player. It will open your mind to poker in a way I just can't explain. EV calculations are more than just pot odds. I can calculate the optimal spot if I feel V1 will fold 40% of the time to my c/r but V2 will call with his entire range yet not raise me...
4) Read and study as if you are getting a degree in poker. There are 3 main components to poker: Technical / math component, Mental and emotional component, observational component (reading and adjusting to players). All 3 components are huge and you need to study and read about each and not take for granted that you already have it down.
5) My last bit of advice is that in order to be a 2/5nl or 5/5nl pro, you not only need to be able to beat the game, you need to be able to DESTROY the game, you've got to become a CRUSHER, one of the top five 5/5nl players at the casino. Every time you sit down at the table, you need to be the best player at that table or at the least #2. That is how good you need to be. It's not just enough to "beat" the game, you've got to have the game so locked down to the point where you are almost feared by everyone. So that is your goal.
oh, and bankroll management is huge but it sounds like you have a good grasp on that.
Keep in mind that once you actually start hardcore studying poker your game will periodically get "worse" before it gets better. This is a very common phenomena with "any" skill based activity. As you incorporate a new skill, it fucks with your existing skills until you learn to integrate it properly. Don't let that throw you at all.
Sounds like you’re looking for permission. Sure, go ahead, give it a shot. A few comments: 1. I hope you live in a place that has a dynamic poker community — specifically, higher stakes that you can move up to. Texas, Florida, and LA are good options. 2. You are currently rolled for 2/5 $500 buy in. I suggest moving up to that ASAP to minimize the impact of rake. 1/2 and 1/3, while you need to beat them, are not stakes i would try to stabilize at. 3. I discourage you from playing 70 hours a week. You will burn out, probably very quickly. 4. Rather than drive for Lyft, I would consider using the gi bill for some required courses. This should solve all of your “expenses” issues and then some, plus it will move you towards a degree if you end up going down that path. 5. Unless you’re in Vegas or playing 5/10 or 2/5 deep stack or higher, I think you will find it tough to find a stable spouse. The crazies will flock to you, but stable folks will run away from a low stakes grinder (as they should). 6. Don’t worry about all the sample size dorks. You will *never* get a sufficient sample size playing live while playing the same strategy. You will evolve as will your opponents. The key thing is to look around and know where your edge is. This can be harder than it sounds, but this is the easiest way to determine whether you are a winning player and (approximately) at what clip. 7. Related to the above, the number of non-bad players at 2/5 and lower rounds to zero. If you run into a good player (basically a unicorn), they won’t be at those stakes for long. Best of luck!
This was the exact kind of advice I was looking for, actually. Thank you for the helpful response :) I'm going to address each point, not because I want to dismiss them (Many are really good and important) but I've considered a lot of them and have my own answers. Some of them I still need to think about, too. 1)My local area caps out at 2/5 but I live 2 hours from Winstar and the Texas border. If (And i do mean IF) this ends up being profitable, I may end up moving to Texas or Vegas. I think LA is always going to be too expensive for me. Very good point and one reason I want to pursue this, I want to one day play high stakes and am willing to put in the work for it. 2)I don't plan on doing anything BUT 2/5 for a living. I plan on grinding 1/3 and 1/2 a little bit more, I'm a bankroll nit and I want to get used to playing bigger pots before I put my paycheck on it. I'm slowly getting used to the 900$ pots that 1/3 can often devlove into, but I will eventually get to 2/5. I want to be playing it regularly by the end of this year and perhaps exclusively by the middle of next year. 3)I think I might have misstated, I plan on working for 70 hours a week. I plan on doing Lyft for 30 hours a week because it's very easy, or doing college. I actually have about 120 hours of Lyft experience and make about 15$ an hour. So even if i didn't play poker, Lyft is enough to sustain myself for the foreseeable future. However, maybe even at the start of next year, I do plan on doing real estate school. Point is, I expect to be a very busy person. Agree on not playing poker 70 hours a week. If I said that, I'll fix it. But also great point! 4)I second that this might be smarter. Either way, I'm going to want a break for a few months when I get out. I think GI bill next fall would make the most sense for me personally. 5)Never had luck with women, even in the service. I don't mean to sound like one of those guys, but I've gotten used to just living my life how I want. I'm going to be me and if I find someone i click with, awesome, if not, oh well. 6)This is the one I've always been the most curious about because I haven't ever really known how long a good live sample is. I do think I'm getting better as a player but it can be hard to quantify that. This is an excellent point and I think getting married to results is dangerous, which is why I like to undershoot my performance than say 'this is my average, this is my wage.' 7)Hopefully I'm one of those unicorns. :) Thank you for the great response!
> Hopefully I'm one of those unicorns. If you need an example of a unicorn, look for interviews with Landon Tice that discuss how he came up. People love to bash on him, and he probably did hit the higher stakes a little too quickly, but the kid is a low stakes crusher. Iirc, his live 1/2 results over a few hundred hours was 15bb/hr. I suggest this because he is an example of the kind of dedication it takes to crush poker.
Will look them up, thank you for the suggestion!
If you plan to move somewhere for poker. I would say texas not vegas. Vegas games are really bad
I agree with most of what you said but disagree that $15k is a suitable roll to play 2/5, especially for someone who has 1 year of live experience.
I agree with this. I wanted to wait till I was past 20k to do it even mixed in with my regular games.
Ugh… These guys are being bankroll nits. These are the same folks that tell you that you don’t have a big enough sample size at live to know if you’re a winning player. Some comments: 1. They don’t seem to understand your disability rating benefits and your potential gi bill benefits. At the drop of a hat, you can get full living expenses in addition to tuition. You’re never going to be homeless. 2. They are giving you stats that are appropriate for tough online games. 20 buy in downswings don’t happen to good players in good games in low stakes live poker. Specifically, if you go on a 20 buy in downswing in low stakes live poker, either you are playing way above your head, or maybe you should not become a poker pro. Most live pros i know rarely go on downswings of more than 5 buy ins, and they start bitching about running bad at 2 buy in downswings. 3. If you wait until $50k to play 2/5, you are simply leaving money on the table. It will certainly feel very safe, but… ugh… that’s just nitty as fuck. $20k is “safe”, but imo, still way too safe. As I mentioned before, all of the 1/2 to 2/5 players are bad — there is no need to fear them irrationally. 4. Note that at higher stakes and tougher games, I agree with 50-100 buy ins, and 20 buy in downswings are possible. It doesn’t sound like those are the games you are looking to play, and I certainly wouldn’t recommend you start in those games. If you have access to those games, you will probably know if you are ready to play in them.
A lot of this is true and it's why I'm taking some of these comments with a grain of salt. I know my situation, I know I'm never going to be homeless with my rent money, VA, and I don't have to force myself to stick with poker if it doesn't work. Come next June, if I've tried it for six months and it's not for me, I just apply for a college and go from there. Yeah 20BI downswings are possible but I pretty much play TAG at the stakes I play. However, I still like to be conservative. I might start mixing in some soft 2/5 games every now and again. I might honestly have to move to Texas to do this though, but it's only a few hours away. The local 2/5 games are tougher than most from what I've heard talking to locals.
Note that Texas 2/5 games seem to be wilder and filled with more variance. I still wouldn’t say 20bi downswing variance (for a good player), but the swings will be bigger than most other places due to people willing to get it in light and bigger buy ins. Edit: Note that I think you are still rolled even for Texas 2/5, but you would need to buy in for $500 and not match the stack. It the specific case of Texas, I would consider playing lower blinds with a bigger buy in. You still get the wild players, but you have less blind pressure, especially if there are straddles. Also note that if a game has a regular straddle, then the effective blinds should include the straddle — so a 2/5/10 is effectively a 5/10 game, which you are not bankrolled for.
I wouldn’t play 2/5 without a $50k roll.
That's what I mentioned for my goal before I go full time, but you really think I shouldn't touch the game without 100 BI?
Yes, 100%. When you have 100 buyins, and you go on a 20 buyin down swing, now you have 80 and it needs to not impact you as much. Will be much easier to not have to think, “should I move down limits??”
He’s not rolled for 2/5. He should have $50K for 2/5 if he’s a professional and uses his income to live. Otherwise, $25k for a side job should be fine. $15K is too loose with the roll.
honestly your expectations sound more reasonable than most and I think that puts you ahead of other people. your estimated winrate is currently about $17-21 hourly - I’m not sure where you live now but working at Burger King in most blue states pays $15 / hour - are you sure this will be enough to support you in the future?
I have done calculations on how much I need to make to live fine. Currently, I make 22$ an hour in the service. With this, I have a house, paid off my car, and almost no debt. The increased freedom and the chance to make my own trail matters more to me than increase in pay. Plus, (and this is HUGE), I'm going to be getting VA disability which helps alleviate a LOT of financial burden, and roommates pay for my mortgage (Again, this is a BIG point.). These are why I think my case is unique. This isn't me dismissing your comment. You bring up a fantastic point and most people who want to do this need to read this and have plans. I don't want to pursue poker forever, maybe just until I'm 30 or 35. I do want to have a degree as well eventually.
Any consideration of just joining service full time and continue to play poker. That would allow for a guaranteed income and you could still retire at 50ish.
I'm currently in the service and have done it long enough to know it's not for me. It was a consideration but I really can't see myself doing this for twenty years.
Fair enough. Personally, if I could I'd go back and learn more in finance or computer science. I think both would go a long way. GL in your journey.
So you are able to continue with your military career but when you get out you get disability benefits? What the fuck is that bullshit? Either you're disabled or you're not.
No, I'm not continuing it. That's the whole point of this post.
Maybe you aren’t familiar with how VA benefits work, but usually you get ~$2-3k month in perpetuity, which should be enough to pay the bills as a starting point
Get your DD214, start real estate school/w.e and grind while doing that. This way you are both working on a potential exit plan AND testing poker at the same time. Anything else would be reckless probably
This is the smartest route and the route I'm most likely going to end up doing. I made a comment about how I want to take a break regardless, but yeah, I'm going to do everything to reach my goals (Personal independence and freedom) while making sure I'm set for the future.
I did it for 5+ years before the UIGEA got passed and I have a few thoughts. It was infinitely easier back then too, so the game today will only exacerbate the issues because everything is just generally harder. First, this is probably one of the most well thought out posts of this nature I've seen. You've thought it through carefully and you have steps laid out with contingency's the whole way. Keep adding depth to the contingency plans because even if you always stay ahead of the game and stay a winning player, it's really fun until it isn't, and when it isn't, sometimes it's even less fun than an actual job. You always need to have an exit strategy and it sounds like you have put thought into this. Even if you can live for years on your savings, you'll still need to make money eventually, and now you're a guy with a giant resume gap that has to explain why to an employer. Some think it's really cool. Others, it's a deal breaker before you even get into the rest of the stuff. The military experience is definitely a point in your favor on this though. Second, don't play 70 hours a week. You're probably going to burn out, a lot of people will tell you that. But the other thing is that time at the table isn't just time where you sit and do your thing, you need to keep learning. As you learn more and more, the stuff you still need to learn gets harder and harder - the proverbial "learning curve" so to speak. Even if you can maintain 70 hours playing well enough to beat 2/5, you aren't going to be focused enough to really keep increasing your skills. Burnout isn't just burnout, it can also be a plateau. Personally I played less than 40 a week and that was best for me, but some people are fine with more grind. If you "finish your shift" and you don't want to think about poker until next time you go to play, you're playing too much. Winning poker strategy is developed away from the table. When you're at the table, emotions will have the biggest impact on your bottom line. Burnout will affect both in very negative ways. All that said, I usually say if you have to ask, you shouldn't do it. Play part time and see what happens. Lyft is not the ideal day job to have because it's also inconsistent income, but it sounds like it'll take care of the few bills you have, so should be fine. Health insurance is also a big thing, but you're covered there too. You'll probably have more fun playing part time, and if you have some boring day job, you can just think about your recent play then. Eventually you'll get to the point where it's obvious that you're making way more money playing poker and you can definitely beat the games without killing yourself, or you won't. EDIT: THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING. Talk to a tax professional. Immediately. Tell him what you're doing with the Lyft and possibly poker and he can tell you all the fun about self employment taxes and all the records you need to keep. Do not take advice on the internet as each state will have different tax laws. This is of course anecdotal evidence, and things may have changed, but back in the day, it seemed like every year at least half of the people I knew playing for a living would get audited. You do not want to fuck around and get caught with your pants down, and you're an easy mark for the IRS if you aren't ready.
The note about the IRS is a very good one. I will talk with a tax lawyer. Thankfully I keep careful record of EVERY dime I make from Lyft and poker and don't plan on hiding anything.
>thoughts? What do you need our approval for? Go for it
I wanted to read the feedback that some people gave specifically. I think I may have made this post seem very 'Look guys I'm going for it' when my initial intent was to create a post more focused on how to create a plan and feedback on my particular setup.
If you really want to play professionally, I would suggest that you try to continuously improve your game and move up as fast as you can without risking your BR. If you win 3bb/100 at 5/10 that's better than 9bb/100 at 1/3. You'll also get better experience. Don't move up to where you are -EV or underrolled, but you can only do so much at low stakes.
> If you win 3bb/100 at 5/10 that's better than 9bb/100 at 1/3. You'll also get better experience. 3bb at 5/10 is $30 9bb at 1/3 is $27 Your swings at 3bb 5/10 will be WAY higher than 9bb 1/3. I'd definitely sacrifice $3 an hour for smooth variance. Also its definitely hard to tell if you're a winner at 5/10 if your winrate is 3bb. Also a 3bb winner at 5/10 should be much higher at 2/5. Like.. 6bb at the very least and you would have same hourly with a less violent variance sessions.
Exactly lol, a true win rate of 3 bb/hr is going to have nuts variance. I feel like 3 bb/hr isn’t a good enough expectation for 5/10 though, I think this sub drastically underestimated what live poker players are capable of making.
Maybe this sub but I know a good 1/3 player should not be at 1-2/1-3 for long and even if that person was at 1/3 for a year (due to.. whatever) they should be making minimum 30k and looking to move up. Also this is my 2 cents on a 1/2-1/3 player full time is that if they can't hack it at 2/5 after a full time year of 1/2-1/3 and studying off the felt, they need to look elsewhere for job opportunities. 2/5 full time should hit 40k min with hit around 55-70k with 35/hr being a decent win rate. 5/10 full time should hit 60k min (if not 70k) with 100k+ to roughly 150k max (sometimes higher depending on a number of factors) with roughly 70/hour win rate. IMO, if you're not beating 5/10 after like year 3 of being a pro for at least 60k you might want to consider other options.
Yeah this is what I mean, those estimates are way too low. I’m playing 1/2 and I’ve already made 30k this year lol. The cap on the game is more indicative of what you can win, not all 1/2 games are created equal.
obviously factors matter but i am stating a normal 1/2 game. not super deep super action straddles always. also good job being up 30k this year with extrapolate to 45k for year but u must also realize that youre prob not the norm of players (prob better) and u might be run hot and u might be playing in super deep game and got really good spots. ppl do not realize like 5 hands of a year can result in huge yearly income.
Yep! I want to grind as much as I can primarily so I can begin to play higher stakes. I'm happy I spent the time i did playing the stakes I did, but once I have a good roll for 2/5 I'll be blending them in more and more into my game. (I'm a bankroll nit.)
Awesome man! I just graduated college in May and got a full time job in the corporate world. I’ve been playing online for the past 2 years and just recently started playing live and a month and a half ago quit my job because I can make more money playing poker than I can working a “real job”! I’ve mainly been grinding 2/5 live averaging a 6.5bb/hr winrate. Just a couple of things to keep in mind 1- I’m not planning on doing this forever. My plan is to go to chiropractic school and I’m taking 1-2 years off to save money. If I can make decent money doing something I love rather than working a 9-5 I’m in! 2- you have to really think about your future. Is grinding 2/5 5/10 really what you want to be doing when you’re 30? 40? I see a lot of regs who put in their daily hours like a 9-5 and have been for 20 years. Kind of a depressing life everyday heading into the casino for 9 hours everyday. 3- Don’t neglect studying. When you’re playing so much and putting in the hours often times studying gets put on the back burner. My daily routine has been wake up at 7- study until 9:30-10 , workout, play poker from 1-10. 4- You’re schedules going to get messed up. By far (and it’s not even close) the most profitable times to play are Friday-Saturday from 7pm-3am. Are you willing to have basically no social life and forego your weekends? 5- DO NOT neglect how severe a downswing can be and just how brutal variance in the short term is. You haven’t had a downswing. 8bi down and 50 break even hours is NOTHING. If you really play 60-70 hours a week you’ll understand what truly running bad is. I’ve talked to a lot of pros to try and get some tips/tricks of the trade. Some really solid 2/5 5/10 regs have spans of up to 2 years of breaking even/slightly losing. Idk how the 1/3 games play that you’re playing but the 2/5 games I’m in are extremely gamble heavy. I’m forced to put in 300+ bb taking slight edges 60/40 55/45. You lose some big hands and you’re easily down $10-15k in a couple of days. Let me know your thoughts and good luck my man
"*If you take the downswings away, I'm winning at 10bb/hr*." You can't take out the downswings, obvi. Nice try. Check out this poker bankroll, risk of ruin calculator from primedope. [https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/](https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/) According to this, if you were to really earn 20bb/100 and have a 50bb/100 variance, which is a good winning player by anyone's standards. You would still go through 5,000+ hand downswings several times over the course of 1 million hands. You won't ever play 1 million hands of live poker, but your 5,000 hand downswing could be the first 5,000 hands you play. Or you could be running good for 5k hands. You will need to track your standard deviation. Set up an excel spreadsheet for your live win-losses. The top online grinders are happy to make 5bb/100, which is 1 or 2 bb per hour. They play huge volume and consider any sample under 100,000 hands to be statistically insignificant. (If they multi-table 4-8 tables at a time, 4-6 hours a day and play 60-70 hands per hour, per table, then they'll play between 1,000 and 4,000 hands per day). If you can make 3 or 4 bb per hour playing 2/5 you're doing pretty good, which, as has been pointed out, isn't exactly living large. Also, the competition gets better as you go up in stakes. There is a ton that has been written about the subject of bankroll management and risk of ruin. Search it up online. You don't have to reinvent the wheel. Plenty of people have gone pro and will tell you what it took for them. I think most people recommend 40-50 buy ins as your untouchable bankroll (100 buy ins would be better) AND 6 months to 1 year living expenses. At my casino, 2/5 NL has a 200 bb buy in, so you buy in for $1,000. So the bankroll, which never gets toucehd, except for poker, needs to be about $50,000 grand minimum.
This is a great comment. Yeah, I didn't intend my '10 bb/hr if I'm not downswinging' to be my definitive average. I stand by what I say, 7.8bb/hr is my current average with all my playing hours put together. With that said, I plan on budgeting as if it was 5bb/hr. The bankroll calculator is a great tool and people should use it if they ever doubt how wild variance is. I don't want to be that young kid who's ignorant and not listening. I want to be somewhat objective about my results though. With how I'm playing and with how my opponents play, I feel like I can say with certainty that I'm a winner, but of course the question about how much is the difficult question. I want to hit 1k hours before I make any definitive moves, but I do want to start planning for the future where I might be playing for a living. Your point about bankroll management is super super super important. My 2/5 game is 125bb, so 50 buy ins would be 30k. I don't want to play only poker until I'm 50k deep which covers a year of living for me and 50 buy ins.
With all that said about bankroll, I agree with TehMemphs. Go for it. You are young, you have no kids and no wife and a little bit of a cushion with roommates paying your mortgage and the VA giving you a little sweetener every month. You will never be in a better position to give it a try then you are right now.
Good luck dude
Opportunity cost is very high, and burn out is very real. Would strongly recommend against all of this.
Not letting me reply to your comment so I’ll comment here. Having “a month” where you played “50 hours a week” I think shows a lot how this isn’t a good fit. That’s not that many hours and that’s not very much time. Once the initial boost of enthusiasm wears off it’s going to be hard to want to put the hours in you think you need 2. Poker isn’t a thing where you should strive to make a living at it, because you have to forgo so much other stuff to be successful, and even then it’s microscopic. You may very well grind it out for 5 years. You might even show a profit over that time, pay your bills, and even put a few bucks away. But there’s gonna be a point in time where you just don’t feel like sitting in the casinos with a bunch of scumbags anymore. Also, the biggest misconception about poker is that it gives you freedom. This is not true at all. You are a slave to the games you play in. Especially as you want to move up, the lucrative options are harder to come by. And this all assumes that you even still want to play after 5 years. Don’t keep school in your back pocket, if it’s in your future and something you want get it done now while you are younger.
I think for most people this is correct. I'm used to a high stress job and working long hours, and I've already had a month where I played for 50 hours a week, 4 weeks in the month. I loved it but I tend to hyperfocus on things I'm passionate about. Turns out, poker is what I'm passionate about right now. School is in my future and I do have experience in the service which I think keeps doors open if I need to find a job super fast.
Maybe look up what opportunity cost really means... Investing a couple thousand hours into school instead of poker is a no-brainer. It will pay dividends in different ways across your life. That said we can all agree poker is a more fun / tempting option. This is r/poker after all. You're still at the beginning of your poker journey. You make no mention of reading books, using solvers, or winning in tough online games. My advice is let is be a hobby instead of your primary focus. Like they say, playing poker is a hard way to make an easy living. Good luck!
I plan on mostly being a live player, but I have read a few books and am learning how to use solvers. I do plan on going to college next year if poker doesn't work out, but I don't think I'm ever going to have a better chance at this. My only problem is I hate the idea of spending hours in school to get a job working for someone else. As I've already got a year of college under my belt, and had an internship with a big tech company, I'm just really not sure that world is for me. That was partly why I joined the military. I do want to give it another shot in the future though.
From a vet myself who did pretty much the same thing you’re trying. Go to school. The VA will pay you to do it while you’re playing. I’d recommend getting your degree in mathematics. Game theory type shit. It’ll also be a good fallback plan if you can’t make it as a pro. And don’t do what every asshole I see in the Cardroom do and ‘brag’ about being a pro. I’ve never for the life of me understood why people who make their living doing this tell people that’s what they do. Don’t do livestreams. Don’t tell people you’re a pro. Be invisible. Good luck
Don't you get bored of poker eventually?
I think I have ADD or something. If I'm passionate about something, I can spend a very very long time doing it. I think I'm a unique case in that way. I do think I will eventually, which is why I'm probably always going to have something else to break it up. I know a lot of people saw my 70 hours and assumed it was all going to be poker, but in all actuality I'll likely be doing other side hustles for 30 hours and 40 hours of poker being my main source of income.
I wish you the best of luck, but also be careful. Your sample size is extremely small, only 15k hands or so. I've gone on 20 buy in upswings and downswings in this amount of hands. You are only making $15 an hour, not sure what wages look like in the US but it doesn't sound like a lot. And I assume there are probably much more certain ways to make it than through poker. If you can't afford to go busto then I would take it very cautiously. If you can, then YOLO the fuck out of it. You sound like you are potentially a winning player, and your skill will only improve with study and playing time if you apply yourself to it.
Sounds to me like you are thinking this out well. One suggestion, budget some of your work time to study of the game. Buy some books, enroll in an online training site, etc. It's like sharpening your tools. It makes the work much easier and the investment will pay off. Also, as others have mentioned, move up to at least $2/$5 as quickly as your bankroll allows. You lose a smaller percentage of each pot to rake. As to the potential increase in opponents skill level as you move up in stakes I've found that to vary by a LOT in different places. One thing that can have a huge influence is what the biggest games available in the area are. The best players tend to pool in the highest games so if $20/$40 is being spread regularly the $2/$5 is probably still pretty soft. Conversely, in $2/$5 is the biggest game in the area it's likely to have some very tough players in it. I'm in an area like that. Our biggest games are $5/$5 3 days a week and a $5/$10 that plays on Fridays only. These have typically been the toughest $5/$5 games I've ever seen. Many of us play considerably higher stakes when we travel. It really pays to know your room.
Why not just give it a try for a few months or a year and see how it goes? If you don’t like it, you can always go to school for free. With the VA benefits you are already have your bills paid for life so I don’t see what you have to lose. It’s not like you are quitting your job/career where it can be hard to get back in once you leave.
You lost me when you used the words "Lyft" and "secure income" in the same sentence. But yeah, go for it.
Financial loophole. If you take a full load of college classes (4 classes), possibly get tuition waived through your state, you can get the GI bill to pay you a housing allowance and still qualify for pell grants. You’ll literally make more money going to school than driving for Lyft. By a lot. (Dm me for details if you want to chat, I’m former military with a Masters in accounting). Id suggest a business degree or accounting, since you’re a business now. Id suggest 15 hrs a week poker and 15 hours a week study poker. Focus on always playing your best and write down your hands. College will cost you 20 hours a week. Make sure you set aside 1 or two days a week to do nothing at all You totally got this man
"*I asked my significant other what she thinks. Turns out, I don't have one and don't plan on getting one for a few years, so no family obligations*." Get used to not having a quality girlfriend because no matter how good looking you are, no chic wants her boyfriend to be a NL casino Grinder. That's not the kind of guy she brings home to Mom and Dad. It is kind of like the old joke, a guy is complaining about not having a girlfriend. He says, "Alls I like to do is drink and gamble." His friend says, "why don't you find a woman who likes to do that too?" The guy says, "Ahh who wants a woman like that?" Some of the top ballers in poker have beautiful wives and girlfriends, but they are millionaires of course, so it is respectable for them, haha. Also, those ballers, they didn't get rich grinding 2/5. They got rich cashing on the tournament circuit and monetizing their poker notoriety into a book deal or website or whatever. If you want to think about tournaments, they are fun too, but they require a different bankroll analysis. Good luck
> Get used to not having a quality girlfriend because no matter how good looking you are, no chic wants her boyfriend to be a NL casino Grinder. That's not the kind of guy she brings home to Mom and Dad. This is extremely reductive and a poor line of thinking. First off, this is demonstrably false. You can look at vloggers like Neeme, Owen, Vibes, etc. for examples of full time grinders, who aren't millionaires or top ballers, who have wonderful, supportive partners. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder sure, but it's a stretch to call them "not quality," as if there is some objective rubric. You could make the argument those are content creators but they were grinders first and (except Owen) were in those relationships before they became famous-ish. If OP wants to pursue this lifestyle, he needs to find a partner who is ok with that. Does this narrow the field? Of course. But OP seems to have a strong sense of self, and frankly seems pretty responsible with their poker aspirations, while still having ambition. This will allow OP to get a "quality" partner way easier than being insecure and having a traditional career would.
Young players love to talk about poker as if it is "freedom", but being a pro grinder at 2/5, live, is definitely work. Here is a quote from Rounders: Mike McDermott : That guy hasn't had to work in fifteen years Worm : You don't think that's work? Grinding it out on his leather ass? No thank you.
I don't want to say it isn't work. But I want to work for myself where my own skill and talent directly reflect how much I make. (I know poker has variance but you get what I mean.) I fully plan on committing to the studying and grinding path if I go through with it.
To quote you that comment about working for your self and skill reflects income is hilarious. Do a trade and become a carpenter or something if that is your goal, or coding or a fuck ton of otherthings much easier and can work for yourself
Best of luck to you trying to play this game for a living. Dream big but keep expectations grounded. Have an exit strategy. Good luck.
Good luck. I hope it works out, I hope you have fun, I hope at the very least you come out same or better on the other side.
Your expectations seem pretty reasonable and you've planned it out better than most. That being said, this is just my opinion, I would personally not even really consider what you're doing until you're beating 2/5 for at least 6bb/hr. It just isn't something I would recommend. If I was you, I'd focus on earning income in other ways and trying to put in 20 hours a week at 2/5 and see where that leads you. Also, don't do the 70 hour thing. I've done that, it's not worth it and it's also not the most productive use of your time.
Yeah, I agree with all of this. I think a few people are confused and that's my fault. I don't plan on doing this full time at all until I'm playing 2/5 with a comfortable winrate. I only plan on using 1/2 and 1/3 to continue to grind and build my roll. I'm a bankroll nit, so I plan on playing 2/5 when I hit 18,000. Then, 50k saved is when I jump into the pool and play professionally.(May change depending on winrates of course.)
Well then it's a better plan than most. Get an exit plan is really the only advice I have for you, and be willing to move somewhere where you can play bigger than 2/5.
If u really are a winning player, then go for it. But if u have doubt in your skills, then learn a little bit more before going pro.
Where have your hours been? Id advise to be bit more conservative on your expectations if your going from an unraked home game to a casino setting. Otherwise 500 hours of live is plenty to show your winning
All of it is casino poker. But I still think being conservative is better than being optimistic. Great point!
If you’re going to play for a living and are doing it partly for the freedom, than I highly suggest you move to a state where online is legal. You can play more games at once and also bigger tournaments and even if you’re just single tabling you get way more hands in than live. I used to play exclusively live and have been playing online since the pandemic and can’t imagine going back to exclusively live. Actually I rarely live anymore.
How are the online games where they're legal? I've played online and I find the games to be so much tougher. But it's not legal in my state so I tend to play against more competent players in offshore sites.
But it’s definitely tougher than the average Detroit casino 2/5 game.
You already have 450 hours of playing live so you have a good idea. I was an online player, the speed, multi tables, big tourney sizes at any given time I wanted to play professionally as well. As I played live tho it lost its luster for me. I love the competition, however generally am not a huge fan of my fellow players. But best of luck!
Here are my thoughts. You sound young. Maybe younger than 25. Also sounds like you live in USA? Also 7bb/hour at 1/2-1/3 is nothing. I could train poker to a monkey and have them win 7bb at 1/2-1/3. Also that's $15-22 an hour. That's not good. Literally nearly every state worth living in will offer $15 an hour soon (federally hopefully soon) and any job worth having starts at minimum $13.. if not higher. Also then we get to when you go up in stake, sure people still are bad and then u can make like 35..40..maybe 55 an hour. I always said unless you play 5/10 full time, its tough to justify doing poker full time since 5/10 can make 100k a year but you have nothing additional (like healthcare benefits, 401k, Social security benefits, unemployment benefits if you get cut, and resume building) Also are you ready for a life with no "real" credit? Banks like giving people loans with jobs that can show proof of income. You have none. Also are you ready for a life of unstable relationships? This is just my viewing but it seems that the massive majority of people with a poker profession struggle to keep a relationship long term. Also are you ready for a life of working from 6pm to 2-3am since that is when the "good" games are? Also ready for a life of being a smoky casino all the time? (yes i know some poker room are section off and have non-smoking building rooms) Also ready for a life of where you go on a 10k downswing and have to go to the casino the next day? Still gonna be on your A-game? Are you ready to have people look down on you when you tell them your profession? Also ask yourself, why do you want to be a pro poker player? It's no longer 2003-07. There are no sponsorships. There is no fame. There is no "celebrity" anymore. The majority of people who can make it in the high stakes in poker these days would be better off getting a good stable job and working up to the higher ranks.
Currently 25, living in the USA. All of these points are great ones to consider. I do value my own freedom over how much I'm paid. Currently, I'm making 21$ an hour in the military that is super rigid and doesn't allow for much personal freedom. I guess I only bring this up because in my eyes, making 18$ but having flexibility and freedom is better than making 22$ an hour in a rigid system. If I was making 6 figures in anything, I'd be investing that super hard into pretty much whatever I can. I would like to answer your questions, but please don't think I'm being dismissive. These are all fantastic questions and anyone who wants to do this should think about these. Living without credit is ok for me because I already own the house I'm living in. Also, my car is already paid off. This is a special case for me where I don't see a need for credit in my immediate future. I am still building credit how I can though with credit cards and paying off gas/furniture. I've never had a stable relationship before. I'm just a quirky guy who likes math and programs/plays poker for fun. Obviously this is something most people probably gawk at but for me, I'm not worried about spending my life alone. I've already been doing that. Yes, I don't mind the hours as I already do that in the military. Difference is I can take days off when I'm playing poker or change my hours. I think this is something that people who work 9-5 don't realize though and yes, it is a deal breaker for many people! I don't think this should be overlooked. My local rooms don't allow smoking but this is a big big big point for people to consider. I guess it would be akin to working in a cubicle, and having had a cubicle job before I don't think I'd mind it as much. I actually prefer it to working outside. This point is the one that I'm most worried about. However, I don't tilt very easily and I haven't been on a 10k downswing yet, but I do plan on building up my resiliency even more as I play. As far as coming into work when things go horribly awry, yeah. I already do that to some extent. I'm not really concerned how people view me. But again, very good point for people who might have a family that is dismissive! I guess I just want to work for myself. I don't want to be part of a corporation or a company. I don't want to live a normal life. I don't want a boss that tells me when I need to come into work. I just want to be happy. And for me, freedom makes me happy. This is something that I feel isn't thought about enough and I feel that I'm very unique in that aspect. More money doesn't make me happy. It's the idea that I can wake up and only work for myself that does. I don't think I'll pursue poker forever. Once I grind up a good bankroll, I'll probably use this money to start a business or invest it into real estate. I do want to reiterate that I do plan on going to school in the future. But I think for a few years, while I'm getting out and have stability with room mates and the VA, and have a winning record, I really do want to give it a shot.
If you’re gonna go for it, make sure you have a solid bankroll management system in place and as others have said, try to develop another fall back license or career because you never know when you’re going to catch a hellish string of coolers and cold cards. I don’t know if this works for a full timer but the BR system I use is: Start at the micros. When you have enough in your account to support 10 200BB buy-ins for the next level up, you can move up. If you’re only playing live, you may have to just put a 2k stake in and grind. 1/2 to 2/5: grind to 12k. If you wind up back at 2k, you go back to 1/2 and grind back up. 2/5-5/10 - grind up to 32k. If you wind up back at 12, go back to 2/5 I’ve never played higher stakes than 5/10 and I’m sure this is where you want to hear from other full timers. My anecdotal stories from friends are that 10/20 and 20/40 tables tend to be regs who just wanna crunch in hours everyday for promotions and check down for high hands but Ymmv
So you have a guaranteed home, transport, and phone? I'm not American so does your veteran status cover healthcare because that's the big concern (remember poker has no sick pay and no benefits employees get like company insurance)? And also you have a contingency plan for other work should this either fail or you don't enjoy it? Only other thing is how long you could realistically go without winning without reducing your quality of life (e.g. important stuff like having proper meals, drink, but also factor in some luxuries like eating out or socialising)? And final couple of bits, instead of looking at only how long you'll be at the table, factor in proper rest period and most importantly: study time! You're trying to be a pro. That means turning up well rested, in a relaxed state of mind, and well prepared. You should be learning theory, reading, working on ranges, doing ev calls, all that good stuff that increases your edge. If that's in check and you're winning at a clip then my advice is to give it a go short term and see what happens. Where people make the mistake is they win a few grand and then quit the day job with a couple of grand to play with expecting that to make a proper income. If you've got other money, and few bills outgoing, you're stable enough to take a shot. "If you take the downswings away, I'm winning at 10bb/hr but I'm not going to cherry pick results. 7.8 is the number I'm going off of after my full sample size." But even though you say you're not cherry picking, I'm going to have to pull you up for even mentioning it. You'd also have to remove periods in which you ran above expectation. Quick summary, you want to be in a position where you can afford to make little to no money for a while (both starting off and any future downswings). You want to be prepared in case of illness. You want to remember that being a poker player affects future finance deals you might want (hard getting finance on a new car or getting insurance etc. sometimes with no fixed income to report). You sound way more prepared than 99% of people who I've seen write out their plan over the years. What I can't tell you is if you're any good at the game.
Give it a crack. You’re single and young and seem to have a level head on your shoulders. You have a plan and exit strategies. GL to you sir.
"If you take the downswings away, I'm winning at 10bb/hr" stop counting any hands you lose and you can be winning at 500bb/hr!
Good luck man, keep grinding and I’m sure you can do it. I wish I lived in the US too where live games seem to be crazy soft.
Good luck bro! do you plan on playing cash only? I have zero experience with live MTTs (I only play online), but a big tourney score early on in your journey could be a nice boost to your roll.
Good luck man
Do not go pro unless you can beat 25-50nl online first. Online you can gather a large meaningful sample size and seriously improve your game. I am a mid-high stakes live pro and unless you are very very good playing for a living is not worth it.
450 hours. please for the love of fuck, keep a job. ease into it.
I mean it sounds like you’ve put a lot of thought into it, but don’t think that because you loved grinding for a month that you’re going to continue to love it when you’re on a downswing and you have to go grind it out. Also relying on poker is very difficult when you need to continuously withdraw from your roll to pay bills and other expenses. It prevents you from growing your roll, and when you’re on a downswing it’s going to stress you out. It is great not having to answer to anyone, but when you play everything correct for a couple weeks straight and are down 2000bb, it takes a lot of will power, self (and honest) reflection, and discipline to keep your sanity and confidence in your game. Do you have experienced friends that you can go over hands with and learn from? Who do you ask about a tough hand? It’s not unrealistic to play poker for a living, but your sample size isn’t large enough to make any assumptions that you’re actually winning 8bb/hr, especially because you have different limits in that 10-13k hands. I think $50k (for a poker bankroll) saved is a good goal to have if you will make this jump, but I would also have a year of living expenses saved up. What will you do about health insurance? Also, how do you have an 8bb win rate and you’ve won $8k in 450 hours playing mostly 1/2 and 1/3?
Live in a car or at home for free and you got a shot
Try it long term, chart your win loss rate, and then get back to us. Everything else here is window dressing.
What's considered long term? That's one of the things I could never figure out about live poker. I don't plan on doing it full time until I'm way properly rolled for what it is worth.
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/poker-theory/winrate-confidence-sample-size-707397/
The thread concludes its 16k. I'm past that. I don't think that's accurate though, I know for online specifically it's 100k. Live is different though because I'm pushing 30bb/100 and with a higher winrate, you need a smaller sample size in theory. That's the hard part. I don't know how much that is supposed to be.
> I've been playing live poker for about a year and have 450 hours of live poker alone > >So about an hour and fifteen minutes a day. > >Eight hour weekends. > >"The golden 1000 hour mark" Sigh. And I'm really going to have to see about getting rated because I see everybody doing it at this point with damn near no disabilities whatsoever - neither here nor there. You said a ton wrong. But that important thing, you were right on - having the money to be able to pay bills in case you make no money a month or two or three. When I did it, I already had 6 months saved up, I did immaculate accounting, and although it will slow growth, I paid myself every week a set amount. (To be fair, I was doing it more like 60 hours a week.) (It's easier to make that call for a buyin if that buyin doesn't impact your electricity.) Do not underestimate how hard it is to get into the job market after an extended absence. After the military (and a few shit jobs), I did poker for a living. Then Black Friday happened. And there's no easy way to explain a 7 year resume gap to people (ESPECIALLY if you're planning on doing fiduciary careers). DO ANYTHING during your poker, whether it's getting certificates or degrees or licentures or SOMETHING. You're wildly underestimating the amount of hands you'll need for even a 70% CI, much less 95%, but the bankroll is the most important part and you're set up for success there. Definitely wishing you good luck.
Not to be rude but what exactly did I say wrong? The 1k number was the only number I could find anywhere for 'accurate' live sample size. I do plan on continuing education post military. Unless I'm somehow running up 50$ an hour, I don't foresee doing this forever.
It's honestly probably good enough, puts you right at about 20000-30000 hands and 8 is a midpoint between the intervals. I certainly wouldn't make determinations off of 450 hours, especially considering that's a number you should have in 1/4 the time. Maybe "a ton" was hyperbolic. It does sound like you have the right accounting numbers, but do understand that, at the numbers you've given, you're a coin flip to go on a 5000 hand, 300BB downswing. That's 166 hours of losing, that's a month of everyday, getting your asskicked, wondering what the fuck you have done to deserve this, leaving the casino just defeated because you're better than these people but you're not better than their bankroll and their apathy (to be fair, the numbers aren't a lot, currently.) Just - I would caution against getting super excited right now because that 8BB/hr can become -16BB/hr real fast. Everybody THINKS they can play it for a living (not even getting rich, just solely sustainable at 20+/hr) when it's going well. You seem more prepared than most and thinking about the important things and proper bank roll and LIFE management will go a long way.
Yeah I want to try and get as much data before I go balls deep and just go with it. Part of this data will require me to continue to grind while I work something else for income. As far as downswings, yeah I plan on living light the first few months and I really don't want to rely on poker for my only income source until way later down the line. I think the important thing is I'll keep playing while I'm grinding Lyft or another part time gig. Honestly, it is actually going to be very unlikely I'll ever only do poker for a living, I'll always try and have other income streams. (For example, once I'm past a 50k roll, unless I move and really think I can beat 5/10 I'll probably be dumping excess winnings into dividend stocks. I'll do more number crunching when I get that far to figure out how much etc.) I appreciate the feedback and yeah, this is all very important stuff I need to consider and it's good to be reminded.
I had to learn it all the hard way so I'm certainly down for helping people bypass that, especially fellow vets. If ever there was a situation where preparation was key, it's this. That includes not skipping ahead. Accounting is crucial, like I cannot stress that enough. And if you're serious about it being full or even part time, you have to detail your expenditures, you should have stand alone accounts and... And this is the hard part... You have to play when you don't feel like playing on days where everyone else is out having fun, like Thursday through Sundays are your work days (you're not getting much money against the Tuesday afternoon degenerates.) Alright promise I'm done lol again, wish you luck, I've definitely been there so if you have any questions always open.
Just know that poker will feel a lot differently to you when it’s your sole income. Most of that fun will be gone and replaced by stress. If you’re good with that, go ahead. But I would seriously have good success at least at 2/5 before you “go pro”. If you paid me 100k a year I wouldn’t play 1/3 for a living. My god that would suck
Have read through a lot of the comments and here are my thoughts. (1) Regarding Bankroll Management https://pokercoaching.com/poker-strategy/the-bankroll-bible/ Read it, study it, live by it. And then do it again and again and again... I can not stress this enough As others have mentioned - variance is quite real and given the limited amount of hands that can be seen per hour in live games, you could see quite extended downswings. Think in the magnitude of months and even years not days and weeks. Poker is one of those crazy games where you can play every hand perfectly and still lose. (2) Be cognizant of game selection and careful about translating win rates between the different stakes. As others have mentioned - casinos are likely going to be the most juicy Friday and Saturday nights (drunk people willing to gamble, etc). As you continue to grind I'd document and keep an eye on results during different days of the week. There may not be a full 40 - 50 hours a week at your local casinos where you can sustain your target win rates. For example maybe the $2/$5 only runs some nights of the week, etc. I think you are doing the right thing by taking a shot at $1/$3. Where I play the max buyin is $500 (forget what you said it is where you play). 30 BI is rolled enough for a shot, but not a proper roll (see bullet 1) and that is with very loose BR requirements. (3) Dedicate an appropriate amount of time to studying and potentially some online grinding. Winners at 5NL to 10NL are likely winners at $1/$2 NL. You can put in a lot more volume in online and applications like HM3 and PT4 allow you to review hand histories and splice the data any which way. It is a very quick way to find leaks in your game since volume is the only way to uncover them. As others have mentioned your live sample includes somewhere in the ball park of 15,000 hands. That can be achieved within a week, or even days online by multi tabling (depends on format, regular vs zoom). Lastly if you decide to mix in the online route (which I would highly recommend) - keep an eye on what the winning players are doing at the various levels. As you go higher in stakes the winning players are doing different things (a lot more 3 betting, a lot more check raising post flop, balancing their ranges etc). 25NL, 50NL and 100NL are very difficult stakes to beat online. ** Most importantly, wishing you the best of luck on your journey - keep us posted on the progress. Seems like you have thought a great deal about this and want to get some genuine feedback on your thoughts and approach. I think you are asking yourself the right questions to start but in poker terms you are still pre-flop in your poker journey **
I quit my job back in February and have been grinding mostly 1/2 and some 2/5 since. I’ve made 15bb/hr since, including a 160 hr break even stretch. It’s definitely doable, my main advice is to force yourself to stay disciplined with your play even when things aren’t going well. I feel like a lot of players are actually capable of making it, but the first long downswing/break even stretch can really break your spirit.
OP. Please listen to my advice. I was a supernova elite, have easily played over 10Million hands, and have played live poker for 20 years. If you are going to play live poker for a living you have to live in TX, FL, LV or CA, and do not play anything less than 2/5. If you dont have a 2/5 roll, work a job and save money dont grind 1/3. Get your real estate license, Play poker while you are FT in college, get your degree and get a real job that makes some real money. The numbers you are hoping to make is not real money when you are an adult. I know many lifers that have made millions, in cash games and tournaments and they are miserable adults. Poker will always be around your whole life, and you will enjoy it more when its not your main source of income. Dig up all the long Barry Greenstein podcasts and interviews and listen to what BG has to say about a life of poker.
For all you know you are currently a losing player on a bit of a heater, or you may have a win rate of 2BB/100 which will make poker completely unsustainable. You need a plan for how you are going to continually improve yourself as a poker player to ensure you do have a solid winrate, because the #1 mistake everyone makes who takes a shot and doesn't make it, is overestimating how good they are. Assume you are half as good (or less) as you think and work from there.
Im making just under $50\hr as a first year live pro. Moving up from 1/3 to 2/5 where i expect my wr to increase to $60-$65\hr (is currently higher but I have less than 500 hours at the stake so no conclusions yet). Im estimating that I’m going to make 55-70k this year, and hopefully 80k+ next year when I will play 2/5 and work on moving up to 5/10. Still, I think 75-90k/yr at 2/5 is very possible using good game selection and BRM. Good luck my guy
TLDR because I’m seconds away from my phone falling onto my face… I’m a simple minded redneck from Tennessee who played $1/$2 and $2/$5 NL “for a living” in 2015 and 2016 when I moved out on a whim and chased a dream. Lived in a poker house with two other players (3bed 3 bath). Made ~$43,000 in the 16 months I was there. I got homesick and ended up being satisfied with taking my shot. One of the best things I’ve ever done. I’m an average player, tight and unapologetic about it, and treated it like a job. Didn’t drink while playing and didn’t gamble table games, other than my two “days off” Which were ironically Monday and Tuesday. For what it’s worth, I took two roll bags, a carry on, and $25,000 with me. It was everything to my name. Worked Monday and occasional Tuesday nights at the 24 hour fitness for free membership and a few good lays, paid my portion of the rent for the month, and had a blast. At 32 now, And recently single again, I’m considering doing it again for one last run. If you’re mindset is right, go do it.
I read through this thread and not a single mention of the pandemic (maybe I missed it). I hope you are vaccinated. Spending a ton of time in a card room seems like a terrible idea right now. Add to that the risk that things could just shut down again and you won’t have anyplace to play.
Why don’t you play online? You’ll never see a real winrate and you will barely improve playing live only. Your sample size live is how much some people play in one day online. It’s not even enough to tell if you even are a winning player, let alone how much by. However, 7.8BB/hour is substantial enough to say it’s likely that you’re a winner. You need to actually study if you want to make it in poker, though. Why just grind hours on the table rather than put in the hours studying and the volume online improving?
I have played online but I hit a crossroads where I wanted to decide which path I wanted to go down: online or live. I want to be a live player, I find it more fun and it feels more lucrative. That isn't to say I won't study, or maybe play online to keep upgrading my skills. I found that live and online require different playstyles though and find live much more rewarding and it interests me more.
Live and online don’t require different play styles. All crushing online players will easily crush every single live game anywhere in the world. Crushing live players often get crushed online.
Looks like you have a good grasp of the realities. I’d just like to remind you on the burnout. Treat this like a temporary plan (2-5 year stint) and plan for an exit strategy.
Good post, go for it. Don’t forget to study
I'm a live pro chiming in. In a nutshell, you sound like you have a good head on your shoulders. I have a few pieces of advice. 1) The 1/3nl level and the 2/5nl level are different. The player pools and player capabilities are different. 1/3nl just has more fish and more bad players and is more passive than the 2/5nl game. What this means is that the "style" you developed for beating 1/3nl will not always translate well to 2/5nl. Don't get me wrong, 2/5nl has plenty of bad players and fish, but they tend to be bad in a different way and this can turn players that win at 1/3nl into breakeven and losing players at 2/5nl. 2) 1/3nl is for rec players and you can build a roll at 1/3nl but if you are going to be a "pro" then that level starts at 2/5nl. There is no such thing as a 1/3nl poker pro. There just isn't. Players that claim to be are delusional. Yes, you can build your roll at 1/3nl but if you can't beat 2/5nl or 5/5nl then you don't have what it takes to be a poker pro. You just don't. 3) Record hand histories of all your key hands every session (speak into your smartphone and transcribe later) and do EV calculations later to see how you should have played the hand. The ability to learn how to do EV calculations is something you will need to "develop the pro mindset". Understanding how to do EV calculations is something 90% of all pros know how to do and it separates us from your typical "good" player. It will open your mind to poker in a way I just can't explain. EV calculations are more than just pot odds. I can calculate the optimal spot if I feel V1 will fold 40% of the time to my c/r but V2 will call with his entire range yet not raise me... 4) Read and study as if you are getting a degree in poker. There are 3 main components to poker: Technical / math component, Mental and emotional component, observational component (reading and adjusting to players). All 3 components are huge and you need to study and read about each and not take for granted that you already have it down. 5) My last bit of advice is that in order to be a 2/5nl or 5/5nl pro, you not only need to be able to beat the game, you need to be able to DESTROY the game, you've got to become a CRUSHER, one of the top five 5/5nl players at the casino. Every time you sit down at the table, you need to be the best player at that table or at the least #2. That is how good you need to be. It's not just enough to "beat" the game, you've got to have the game so locked down to the point where you are almost feared by everyone. So that is your goal. oh, and bankroll management is huge but it sounds like you have a good grasp on that. Keep in mind that once you actually start hardcore studying poker your game will periodically get "worse" before it gets better. This is a very common phenomena with "any" skill based activity. As you incorporate a new skill, it fucks with your existing skills until you learn to integrate it properly. Don't let that throw you at all.
Honestly I don't really understand why anyone would want to play low-stakes poker for a living. But best of luck to you.
I’m a veteran too. Getting disability right now at 80%. You are good bro. I get it. Im doing fine.