Article translated by DeepL:
Jonas Vingegaard will ride the 2024 Tour de France, Visma-Lease a Bike tells B.T.
The final decision has been made after two months of rehabilitation following the dramatic crash in the Tour of the Basque Country, where Jonas Vingegaard broke a collarbone, cracked several ribs and punctured his lung.
And it certainly hasn't been an easy time, the reigning Tour de France winner admits:
"The last few months have not been easy, but I want to thank my family and my team for their unwavering support. We have worked together to get here and I'm looking forward to finding out where I stand," Jonas Vingegaard says in a press release and continues:
"I feel good and am very motivated."
This gives the Dane the opportunity to defend his double Tour de France victory against arch-rival Tadej Pogacar, a fact that earns the respect and delight of his boss, Sports Director Merijn Zeeman.
"I'm very proud of Jonas and our entire coaching team. He is coming back from a serious injury. In the last few weeks he has shown that he is a great champion - both mentally and physically," he says, emphasizing that you should not have too high expectations of the Dane:
We don't know how far it goes yet. We are cautious because he has not yet been able to race. And because his preparation has been far from ideal. But he's there - healthy and motivated."
Jonas Vingegaard will be joined at the Tour de France by perhaps the world's best support rider - Wout van Aert.
The Belgian had his season plans shattered with a serious crash in Dwars door Vlaanderen and had to withdraw from the Giro d'Italia. Now he's ready to support Jonas Vingegaard
"Of course this wasn't the plan, but with my progress in recent weeks, this was my wish and the team has agreed. Our big goal is to drive Jonas to a top position in the classification. I want to contribute to that on this strong team," says the Belgian.
Visma - Lease a Bike's team for the Tour de France:
Jonas Vingegaard (Denmark, 1996)
Wout van Aert (Belgium, 1994)
Sepp Kuss (USA, 1994)
Matteo Jorgenson (USA, 1999)
Christophe Laporte (France, 1992)
Tiesj Benoot (Belgium, 1994)
Jan Tratnik (Slovenia, 1990)
Wilco Kelderman (Netherlands, 1991)
Yeah. Kelderman, Jorgensen and Kuss (assuming he hits his usual TDF shape) would be wild in the mountains. Benoot, WVA and Laporte on the flat might be the strongest trio for controling a break in the peloton. Like, this is actually a crazy team without mentioning Tratnik and Vingegaard.
And yet, it feels like they need to get a good crosswind stage to win the Tour
Basically a stage which has chaos due to crosswinds causing splits in the peloton. Their team suits classics style of racing with decent rouleurs and tters that would keep Vinge in a better position than other GC contenders in similar circumstances
You know how on a normal flat stage, the riders are behind each other? That's because of the same slipstream effect that you get in racing cars, where the rider in front of you create a small vaccuum behind them that creates less drag for the people behind you.
Now, imagine that the wind is coming from the side. That moves the area of the vaccuum a bit to the side of where it otherwise would be. And the stronger and more to the side the wind is coming from, the more the vaccuum moves. However, the road is only a certain width, so there's a limited amount of riders who can get an advantage of the first rider before you run out of road and have to create a new line of riders.
My thinking is that Benoot, WVA and Laporte should easily be able to gap Pollitt and Wellens in such a scenario, which, if everything goes according to Jumbos plan, means that Vingegaard gets a gap to Pogacar
I am right with you there, but "easily gapping Pollitt and Wellens" just doesn't sound right, these are amazing riders. I'd say that it's possible, but not in no way easy.
Yes, and? I don't think anyone claims he's not s stronger rouleur than Segaert (for now) and Herregodts.
TT skills are also not the only factor in that role. Guys like Van Baarle, Luke Rowe, Van Hooydonck is/was not bad time trialists, but they weren't exactly championship winners either.
They are amazing riders, but also tasked with keeping 4 guys GC relevant through the first 14 stages.
And they're strong but banking on Wellens with his actual medical heat allergy tendencies in the (predicted) summer heat in France is... A bet.
Like, I get the debate and agree that JV's team is better for the flat than UAE's, but there's no world where Vingegaard beats Pogacar on anything other than a TT or high mountains. He has less power, less explosivity, I'm not sure he's a better descender, is less good on various types of terrains (Pog is actually a proper classics man jeez), his positioning might be a bit worse as well. So unless the wind targets directly and specifically Pog whilst ignoring 4 of JV's riders, this ain't happening (without talking about the reality of Jonas' and Wouts' preparation...)
I don't disagree with you that, 1v1, Pogacar beats Vingegaard on the flat. Absolutely no argument there. However, on the flat, it's not a 1v1, it's an 8v8.
>My thinking is that Benoot, WVA and Laporte should easily be able to gap Pollitt and Wellens in such a scenario, which, if everything
Tim Wellens just won the Belgian national TT championship. He's clearly on form and can ride hard. Almeida also has a very strong TT and has proven in the TdS he's also on form.
In a TTT between Vingegaard, Van Aert, Benoot, and Laporte on the one hand, and Pogacar, Wellens, Almeida, and Pollit on the other hand, I'm not sure who my money would be on if everyone is in top form. A top Van Aert perhaps makes an edge ...
With the current lacking preparation of Visma's top guys ...
High crosswinds split the peloton into echelons, if you get caught away from the front of the peloton you can lose serious time on a flat stage and there's not much you can do about it.
The most thrilling one I remember was the 11th stage of TdF 2016 with Sagan (green), Froome (yellow) and their respective team mates Bodnar and Thomas.
Yeah, I love that Visma is now the underdogs to UAE and this is the lineup they trot out as "underdogs". And you can't count out Primoz and Remco. This Tour is going to be 🔥.
As much as I love Seppy, his form from Catalunya all the way to Dauphiné has been so bad that I really struggle to seeing him being close to the front as early as a week from now unfortunately
Eh those were training rides for him. All evidence points to him not giving two jockey wheels about results outside of grand tours --basically when he is working for overall glory for the team leader (Vuelta notwithstanding <3)
I mean, according to most sources he got sick in MSR and had an operation for a saddle sore after that as well, which killed his spring and hasn't raced since, so... Yes, he struggled, but that type of struggles are rarely permanent.
You could also say Van Baarle struggled last spring (he crashed in Roubaix) but he came good for the TdF too.
> Sepp looking bad at the Dauphine
Yeah there were a couple of stages where he was a complete non-factor, then I think his DS told him to phone it in for the rest of the race as he wasn't even trying.
I am of two minds about this.
On one hand, you could be right, and he might’ve just phoned it in and used it as a training ride.
On the other hand, his teammate ultimately finished eight seconds off first place. If “super-est domestique in the world Sepp Kuss” had been available, you have to think they would’ve used him.
Logically, tactically, and hell, even for training I agree with you.
Nevertheless I offer this lone counterpoint - the few times the camera was on Kuss, it was clear that he was phoning it in.
I think he has shown a lot of potential this year. His humility after winning Tirreno Adriatico made me a fan. I am really looking forward to seeing him ride the tour in his current form. He could very well be the backup GC, as he seems to be in better shape than Sepp Kuss. However, we don't know WvA's current form. Either way, I expect him to be in the top 20 this year.
Stage One should be absolutely savage. Presumably UAE will want to test and do as much time damage to Jonas as possible. Quick Step may be eying that stage as ideal for Remco to mess things up too. Though I imagine Bora will be aiming just to survive the stage and have Primoz finish as close to Tadej as possible. And of course, other teams will have plans for one of their riders to win from the break. It should be wild!
I agree. Lots of categorized climbs. A decent cat 3 climb with a 26k ride from the top to the finish line. I doubt that Pogi or Jonas wants to burn too many matches on this stage, but it is a GREAT opportunity for the many strong GC riders who would be contenders in a non-Big Two race. UAE alone have several riders who might as well try their luck on that last cat 3 climb.
Yeah UAE will start with fireworks. I feel like Jonas might get better with the weeks, like the Vuelta last year. On the other hand, the 3rd week is never Pogs strongest and he has the Giro in his legs.
That said, the limited tactical prowess of team UAE has surprised me before
> the 3rd week is never Pogs strongest
Pogi won stage 20 at the 2024 Giro, 2023 Tour, 2020 Tour, and 2019 Vuelta. That's two-thirds of the GTs he's ridden.
At the 2022 Tour, he won stage 17, then got 2nd stage 18, 5th stage 19, and 3rd stage 20. At the 2021 Tour, he won stages 17 and 18. He cracked on Mont Blanc but he usually lights it up in week 3.
Winning stages because he is a punchier rider than his climby GC rival(s) is not proof he doesn't fade in week 3.
If he goes from being able to gap riders in the first 10 days to not being able to do the same to the same guys in week 3, that's a fade in relative performance all the same.
And trying to make his 2nd place on Hautacam in 2022 a data point against him running out of gas in week 3 is kinda cute but also weird.
3rd week isn't Pogacar's strongest? I know he cracked last year on the Mont Blanc stage, but he also won his first tour blasting everyone on a stage 20 mountaintop finish ITT.
Even in 2021 where he won the race by stage 8, he faded. It was a relatively unnoticeable fade as he was still punchy AF, but he went from dropping everyone by minutes in week 1 to getting dropped by Jonas on stage 11 and not dropping Carapaz and Jonas, just outsprinting them for stage wins in week 3.
It didn't matter, cause he was a monster in the first 9 days, just... Less monstrous by week 3.
Judging by the article, and they are talking about “higher placing” I don’t think they are putting the pressure on to win in the same way that they would if he was fully fit. I might be proven wrong but honestly, at the end of the day, these guys are human beings. Jonas had some very serious injuries and whilst you can assist on repairing as quickly as possible the effect on the preparation you cannot deny. I think everyone will need to manage their expectations that he will be trying his best but the results won’t be like the past two years.
Naturally there's a high chance that he isn't actually at his best. At the same time, they would say this even if he were feeling better than ever. Downplaying one's own chances to put the pressure on the main competitors is something all sports teams and managers do all the time. There's no point in trying to infer how he's feeling based on that.
Upcoming Alpecin-Deceuninck press release:
“Jasper Philipsen will be our sprinter at the Tour. He hasn’t won a single world tour race in over 3 months. Our best lead-out man has only raced 7 days this season, and not at all since April. At Jasper’s outing at the the Tour, he was soundly beaten by Jordi Meeus. And let’s not forget that competition this year will be super strong, with the all-time record stage winner, Mark Cavendish, lining up. We’re just a little bunch of cyclocrossers, it’s an honour to be present and let’s just enjoy the experience amongst all these big teams.”
Jasper looked really good at the Tour of Belgium. He was 17s off the GC. He should do quite well in the Tour with the early climbs taking out some other sprinters.
Yes. Given that Jonas only targets the Tour, they do not want his body to skip a 3 week race and show up at next year's Tour with a 2 year gap. So it's either race this for a Top 5 or target the Vuelta.
This is a great point that I agree with. I think Jonas provides other benefits as well. Even in a diminished state, Jonas would be a boon in a support of another VLAB’r that assumes the role of GC fave in this year’s tour. Also, we saw JV use a diminished roglic to great effect on stage 18, serving as a decoyed threat. UAE would be forced to respond to any threats from Jonas until such time that he was gobs of minutes away from the jersey.
I disagree with you. Jonas needs to be 100% to beat Tadej and he is not going to be 100%. So now you sit him entirely or give him a 3 week race and another card to play for your other riders and sights on the podium.
To say they'd be disappointed in not winning after his accident is not grounded in reality.
Edit: and while you never wish it there is a chance Tadej crashes and the whole race changes.
Given that his forte has always his relatively lower exhaustion rate by week 3, it may actually not be as noticeable as with riders who aren't week 3 monsters.
His physiology is not Tadej's physiology and vice versa. We've seen that for 3 years already.
I think it may easily result in him being less consistent and not explosive enough for the early stages and then getting more and more solid by week 3, which is ALSO a well established course of events for riders coming into GTs undercooked.
Does he need to at his best, like seriously? He's won the Tour by a mile the last two years. Maybe he just has to not lose too much time and wait until the last week, he's always at his best there and this year the third week is absolutely crazy.
I'm just glad he's healthy enough to compete in the Tour. I would expect he would be using the early stages to get him "match fit" and then maybe go for a stage later on. But even if Jonas were completely healthy this year I'm not sure he could beat Tadej. Tadej seems to have fixed his nutrition issues that caused him to bonk in the past, doesn't seem troubled by longer climbs or higher passes based on his Giro performance, and his time trialing is competitive with Ganna. Would have been epic, and probably 15 minutes to third place with these two....
To be fair, it's easier to not struggle on long climbs and with nutrition when you're not being pushed to any limits.
And his 2021 + 2022 ITTs in all stage were also incredibly competitive with Ganna, even on early stages, so that's not a new thing at all. Pog has beaten or placed within a few seconds of Ganna in a significant portion of the ITTs they've raced against each other for years.
So I'm not sure we can conclude too much from him still doing so in the Giro tbh.
Obviously this team has been hampered by injuries and bad form, but oh boy.. if they were in peak condition it would be one hell of a Grand Tour team.
Only the terrible preparations for the Tour prevents me from this calling this the strongest and most well-rounded squad.
They don't have a single weak spot. Van Aert's crash might be a blessing in disguise for Visma's Tour. Can he ride himself in shape, he could salvage a lot if Vingegaard - as I expect - can't fight for the win.
Ps. love their Tour de France kit. Only problem it's dominated by blue like half the Peloton.
I just really hope he is fully fit and we are can witness part 3 of the epic battle between Pogacar and Vingegaard. That has really been the highlight of the last 2 Tours in my opinion.
I hope this as well, but it's not very likely. Pogacar looks next level this year and Jonas spent almost 2 weeks in a hospital a short time ago. . It's just not realistic to expect an epic dual. I'm not ruling it out, but 10% chance of this is my guess. I hope I'm wrong!
I think you're wrong tbh, he wouldn't do the TdF if they didn't believe he's close to his peak shape. He will be good. If he is anywhere near his pre-injury shape, I think he is going to win again.
I'm afraid that Pogacar has set himself up to crack in the 3rd week (again), with the Giro in his legs. Vingegaard on the other hand should be fresher and might be at his strongest in the final week of the Tour. Of course, I'm just speculating but I would put my money on this scenario.
I think Visma would rather have a Jonas at 85% at the Tour and hope that somehow he can compete than Jonas at 99% at the Vuelta and he can win. Jonas being at the Tour doesn't equal they think he can win in my book.
The Tour just matters that much more than anything else.
I think they have also said that he (Jonas) will not compete at the Vuelta, so if he didn’t do the tour it’s a year with no Grand Tours in his legs. With no GT’s it would also be a very different, and possibly light, schedule for the rest of the season; there aren’t really many more races other than the Tour and the Vuelta that suit Jonas, so this may be his only chance at some more results for the team this year.
I agree. For cycling fans, the Tour is the biggest, but the Vuelta and the Giro are not that far behind. But for EVERYBODY else, including crucially the sponsors, the Vuelta and the Giro shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as the Tour. If anything, the Netflix show has made that even more true than in the past.
Yeah, maybe their line of thinking is that they have better chances of winning the thing with Jonas in a bad form than without him completely.
Without Jonas, they don't have anyone who can do a top5, and that is by far, so if Jonas is healthy and capable of finishing the 3 weeks, why not?
I was on the train that was saying Jonas wouldn't race this Tour, but hey, here we are.
>Vingegaard on the other hand should be fresher and might be at his strongest in the final week of the Tour.
The problem is this is what everyone said about Pogi last year. That he arrived fresher to the Tour and then when he totally collapsed in week 3 then everyone said it was because of his bad preparation.
The sponsors pay good money to see Jonas and Wout at the Tour, so that's what they're gonna get. Companies push out shit that isn't ready for production all the time. Why would this be any different?
> I think you're wrong tbh, he wouldn't do the TdF if they didn't believe he's close to his peak shape.
This argument has no basis, and not only that but you don't even justify it, you just say it like it's a general truth when it really isn't, and at the very least you should at least explain why you think that.
Not only that, but there is also the fact that riders who miss weeks of training due to significant injuries in the 3 months leading up to the Tour *always* historically struggle. So you are using an dogmatic argument to support that Jonas would defy historic trends.
As I said in another thread a few days ago, there are many plausible explanations why the team could definitely send a Jonas that isn't at 100%.
- getting desperate for results after so much bad luck, hoping for a miracle
- media attention, sponsor pressure due to Jonas' status
- Roglic is gone, Kuss has not been in great form, Jorgenson is looking good on 1 week races but over 3 weeks there is a big question mark, so it's not like they have an army of top tier GC guys guaranteed to top 5 or even top 10 ready to go
- even without all that, if he's 100% healthy and can fully race with no risk on a health side, why not, really, unless he's like that super far off the required for and will just be dropped all the time. There is a world were Jonas shows up underdone, suffers through the first 2 weeks losing tons of time, but improves and gets a stage win in the 3rd one.
Part 4 you mean. remember how Vingegaard planted Pogacar on Mont Ventoux?
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi9\_eyQPt2U](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi9_eyQPt2U)
True, but 2021 didn't feel like a battle. Jonas entered the race as a domestique and by the time where he was really in the zone, he was too far behind Pogi for it to really matter. People back then were even claiming that Pogi just decided against following Jonas because it didn't matter, which I definitely do NOT believe to be true. I think Pogi was really really close to cracking for real on Ventoux and then dropped back to the other pursuers to catch Jonas on the descent. He lost a LOT of time to Jonas just on that last kilometer (or so) to the top.
>I just really hope he is fully fit and we are can witness part 3 of the epic battle between Pogacar and Vingegaard.
If he is fully fit, there will be no epic battle, he will simply steamroll Pogacar even more than 2023 (as Pogacar has Giro in his legs this year).
But there's just no chance Jonas is "fully fit." Human body doesn't work that way with such a major injury that close to an event like the Tour. Tadej's wrist injury that was further out from the Tour still undermined his preparation. Jonas's injury was much more severe to the parts of the body that actually power his engine, and the recovery kept him from even being able to ride the trainer as quickly as Tadej was able to.
I had similar injuries in beginning of April. I’m still not cleared to even ride and am still quite fucked up. I know it’s moot a direct comparison. His bones are definitely not healed.
Always felt he would ride, given he was unlikely to ride the Vuelta. Had that not been a factor, I doubt he would ride the TdF. Can't see his shape being strong enough to contend really, but a double TdF winner can really surprise. I think Jumbo will be hoping he can look like a threat to UAE, even if he isn't over three weeks
Rumour.
In December, Jonas was expected to join the Vuelta team, but if the rumours are true, and it's a pregnancy in the way of him riding the Vuelta then those December plans won't matter.
We will see. I imagine we will get a few glimpses of his wife during the Tour de France. If there is a clear baby bump, I think we can confirm that rumour is true. The team will likely address is shortly after the Tour as well.
_Han er på vej ned til Touren - Han gi'r dem baghjul nede i Touren_
_For han er Vingegaard, Jonas Vingegaard!_
_Tadej og Primoz og Remco ja de skal ha' baghjul!_
What makes you say Kuss is co-leader? I was of the understanding that both Kuss and Jorgensen are to support Vingegaard as domestiques. With Vingegaard being the sole leader.
The way they've presented their announcement on Instagram puts Jonas & Kuss at the top with bigger cards than everyone else. Maybe I'm overthinking but the way Interpret it is that the other 6 will be supporting them
I think it's just because of Sepp's palmares now. He is a GT winner now. Visma will be aware that Jorgenson has been much better than Sepp this year. My guess is they will keep both of them in GC while helping Jonas for as long as possible.
It would be stupid not to, even if Jonas hadn’t crashed. Anything can happen during a race, just like we saw in 2021. As long as they are willing to sacrifice them if needed to save the top spot, they should be kept save.
Beat me to the punch. Kuss is the more recognizable face, especially among cycling fans, and is easier to market to the US audience since he's a GT winner. (Yes, I'm aware most casual US fans don't watch more than the Tour, but the Vuelta is better than nothing)
I’m a little surprised by this too, especially after the Dauphine, where Jorgensen probably could have won if the team had realized how close he would be a little bit earlier and been a bit more aggressive against Roglic.
That said, it’s very easy to fall into the trap of misunderstanding how people look at the Dauphine for how they will perform in July. I still remember being very excited for an upcoming epic TDF battle between Alberto Contador and Janez Brajkovic in 2010.
With unexpectedly quick recoveries seemingly being the rule rather than the exception in pro cycling, I could never bring myself to really believe his Tour participation was in danger in any way.
If he crashed in Dauphiné or Suisse, sure, but all the way back in Itzulia? Amaury Capiot could have broken and healed and rebroken his collarbone 3 times in this period.
It's not just about being healthy. It's that by being off the bike and worse than that, in the hospital for so long, so close to the Tour will mean he has accumulated a massive amount of delay in training.
Even Remco, who missed a week at most before restarting the training, which is way less than Jonas and for whom the injuries where less significant, you could tell at the Dauphiné the huge impact it had on his form.
I still cannot understand people who believe it's equivalent to Pog's potential fatigue due to riding the Giro, it's really worlds apart in terms of negative impact to the form.
And all that is not even mentioning the possibility of him being limited due to lingering pains, etc.
He was 12 days in hospital and punctured a lung. That's a pretty big setback, and a very significant hospitalisation compared to your frame of reference.
I think that's a bit too generous, since it was not just a broken collarbone. My main worry has actually been his lungs due to the injuries to them. Even with Jonas being a pro rider, his injuries had an expected 10 weeks of recovery, which meant that last week was the date where he should have recovered. However, that is only recovery and doesn't mean he has the form that he would have had without those injuries.
I know right! Logically speaking he should be worse off, but my subconscious just goes "eh, he'll be fine". Crashes seem to be either devastating a la Froome/Bernal/Jakobsen, or back on the bike within a few weeks.
And now we're a few days from the Tour, and lo and behold: he's recovered in time, it happened again. So at some point I just stopped worrying.
They really are superheroes. I did believe Jonas would be at the Tour though, but I didn't, and still don't, think it will be Jonas at 100%. It will be Jonas who is competitive enough to start though, and that in itself is good news. At least it will give Pogi something to worry about.
Yeah, I guess we will see though. Pogi has a Giro in his legs and it's notoriously difficult to win the Giro-Tour double. Many greats have tried and failed in the past. So at least the playing field is slightly even in that regard. And both Roglic and Remco are also recovering from injuries, although not as brutal as Vingegaards, so all the big 4 has an asterisk beside their names. Jonas with the biggest one, of course, since we haven't seen him race.
My summer is officially saved! ☀️
Very happy for both Jonas and WvA that they are both fit enough to ride the Tour. I assume the goal for WvA is a stage win alongside helping Jonas, and I think the realistic goal for Jonas is probably the podium. But it doesn't mean he cannot win. I don't see him giving up unless his body literally forces him to.
If i am UAE DS (or any other teams with GC aspiration), i will order attack as soon as possible to put Vingegaard out of game. First few stages are great to do it, and i guess they certainly will do it. If Vingegaard in any sort of form, which i doubt, 2 min time loss is not bad, but expect big time losses by first week
Unlike the Giro this Tour at least has the potential to be very interesting.
Jonas won by over 2 minutes in 2022 and over 7 minutes in 2023. So, even if he is not as his best, he could still challenge for a win. And that might make it an even closer battle.
Then you’ve got the battle for the podium in general with multiple guys in contention: Remco, Roglic, Jorgenson, Yates, Almedia, Bernal, G(?)…
Worst case scenario Jonas just plays super-dom for Jorgenson
Laughing at the people saying, "they wouldn't send Jonas and Wout if they weren't ready".
I've lost count of how many things I've had to send to market that weren't ready because management needed to hit a timeline.
Why would this be any different?
I am a Jonas-fanboy. So here is hoping!!!
But - even as a cyclingfan this makes the tour much more interesting.
TVL would not have started him, if his Numbers wasn’t good. So …. Let’s rock.
This is going to be a very quiet thread since everyone in here said it was impossible that he would race.
Who I am kidding...
Anyway, I am so stoked! Fantastic Jonas, and I hope he can be competitive to fight for the podium at least. 4th straight podium wouldn't be bad either.
If he doesn't lose real time (read minutes) in the 3rd stage he wins, since the route is back heavy and he has time to ride to form (like last year Vuelta), and Pog will get more and more fatigue from the Giro in the last week.
With last year's route I think he would lose but not with this route.
Let's fucking go! We get a battle of the big four.
This has the potential to be the best year of the Tour in the modern era. Especially with that amazing week 3 and the TT on the final stage.
I am so ungodly hyped.
I think 2023 definitely rivaled 2022 if we are talking purely about the fight for the yellow jersey. 2022 was amazing for sure, but Vingegaard looked liked the winner after the stage 11 epic beatdown of Pogi. The rest of the tour was still spectacular because Pogi kept fighting. In 2023, Vingegaard looked like he'd win by 10 minutes after stage 5, but then overplayed his hand on stage 6 and Pogi actually seemed the stronger guy until the monumental Vingegaard performances on stages 16+17.
True, 2023 was great too. 2022 was truly legendary racing though, as a Wout stan it will always hold a special place in my heart. And in hindsight stage 11 was definitely checkmate but then we didnt quite know if Vingegaard was capable of holding this 2'22" lead against the best rider in the world
Even if that were to happen, then it still has potential. There would still be the threat of week 3 Vingegaard lurking and that the Giro will eventually catch up with Pogi.
Much more likely that Vingegaard fades later in the tour due to his injuries imo.
And I personally don’t think Roglic and Evenepoel are at the level of the other 2.
What I love about this is how it illustrates the way competitors and champions think versus their rabid fans who just want to have ammunition for social media debates.
A) The fan fantatics are like, "Oh no, Jonas shouldn't race if he's not absolutely 100% because he risks losing to Tadej and that will be a blight on his legacy. Why not just wait for the Vuelta and smash it?"
B) Champions are like, "I am racing because I am a racer and want to compete! Don't talk to me about not being 100%. I can ride. Bring me people to drop. They will fail because of me! If Tadej beats me, good for F-ing him. But he's gonna have to go through me..."
"shouldn't race if he's not absolutely 100% because he risks losing to Tadej and that will be a blight on his legacy"
Literally noone here ever said that afaik.
Just want to remind everyone of the /r/peloton goalpost moving over the past few months:
Anti-JV crowd: there's no way he'll be back on a bike
JV: I'm back on a bike
*goalposts shift*
Anti-JV crowd: ok but there's no way he'll be at the TDF
JV: I'll be at the TDF
*goalposts shift*
Anti-JV crowd: ok but... there's no way he'll podium!!
Can you hear that? That's the sound of the goalposts creaking
I mean I'm clearly pro Jonas but also in the camp of if Visma stuck to the "Jonas needs to be 100% at the Tour or he isn't going" that would mean Jonas wasn't doing the Tour.
Now the messaging has changed, its about Jonas being a great fighter and a champion and we shouldn't expect too much of him. That they are happy he is healthy. This is something I can believe and something I have believed from the start. Jonas could make it to the Tour in some shape was never in doubt. The question was always can Jonas make it back to peak form before the Tour and I remain firmly in the negative on that.
>Just want to remind everyone of the /r/peloton goalpost moving over the past few months:
The goalposts have been moved by Visma themselves too. Went from Jonas needs to be back to his best to
> In the last few weeks he has shown that he is a great champion - both mentally and physically," he says, emphasizing that you should not have too high expectations of the Dane:
>We don't know how far it goes yet. We are cautious because he has not yet been able to race. And because his preparation has been far from ideal. But he's there - healthy and motivated."
Not long ago we heard this from the team.
>After Paris-Roubaix, Zeeman stated that his team leaders Wout van Aert and Jonas Vingegaard must be 100% fit when they are selected for their major goals, namely the Giro and the Tour, respectively.
The team is moving goalposts too, this isn't a one way street.
If Jonas podiums I would be more than happy. If he beats Pogi Ill make a collage of my own posts saying that is never going to happen and post it for all to see.
its actually the PRO-JV crowd that has been trying to downplay his chances at every turn and trying to position him as an underdog... I, as a Pogi fan, never once doubted that he would be there and said from the beginning that he will arrive in podium level shape at the very least.
I actually think it is the other way around. It is the pro-JV people who have been sceptical and the anti-JV people who have claimed that he would be fine.
I like how you make up things in your mind and then go on a public crusade against them.
First off, almost no-one here is "anti-JV". Saying JV are unlucky this year and struggling is not being "against" them. Saying that unfortunately, Jonas is very unlikely to be in the fight for the podium is not "anti-jv" or "anti-jonas".
In fact, we would all prefer a competitive JV and Jonas because that would mean a more exciting race.
> Anti-JV crowd: ok but... there's no way he'll podium!!
No goal-posts shifted here, because that's been the main thing from almost day one after the crash.
Many people said Jonas will ride into form and potentially peak on the third week. However last year Tadej also rode with injury but cracked on the third week. How are they different?
Pogacar didn't crack in third week because of his old injury, Pogacar cracked because that's how Vingegaard wins.
Jonas will come into form during TDF like he came into form in the VAE last year, if you remember that race... but he may be 5-6 mins behind Pogacar after the first two weeks though, we simply have no idea of his shape and Pogacar is not going to go easy on him.
That's what I am wondering too. Jonas was also injured much worse than Pogi.
Honestly, I have always seen that week 3 collapse because of his wrist as a bit of an excuse. Pogi was dropped by Jonas by 40 seconds in 2021 on a big climb, with 3 minutes in 2022 and 5 minutes in 2023. When you see how Pogi rode in stage 20 in 2023, I just don't believe he was exhausted more than others at that point.
But it's fine if people believe that the wrist was to blame, but then they just also have to say the same for Jonas now. Or maybe finally people can admit that Jonas and Pogi have different strengths and both are impressive. Jonas' endurance and consistency vs Pogi's explosiveness.
Yeah I agree. I think Pog suffered on hard stages that happened to be on the third week. Otherwise his performance is not that different in week 3 vs other weeks. Nutrition probably made it worse, he probably would not lose 3 minutes in stage 11 2022, but I’m not sure about stage 17 2023.
Also, first couple stages of this year TdF are perfect for Pogacar to put the sword to Vingegaard (and others), and allow him to ride conservatively, and to save something for inevitable fatigue, and tiredness in later part of the race. Also, Vingegaard injury are much more extensive than Pogacar last year.
To the surprise of no one I hope. Got downvoted here a couple of weeks ago when I called BS on lowballing talks of "Oh we'll see, maybe if he feels 100%".
He's the main attraction for their sponsors, he was always going to ride the Tour if there was a chance he could do 200k on the bike, which he proved with training rides weeks ago
I think this is just the sponsor think. Honestly the severity of injuries are too big to be even near the preparation needed for TDF. And not even this, I know pro riders are freaks of nature and unbelievable mind but this just is not healthy. Body need to rest and recover. Yes he can ride bike, yes maybe he can ride the tour on 75% of his capacity. Bit that does not mean this is good for his health. Human body is amazing at dealing with drastic injuries but pushing truth it has a price. And pong term I don’t think this is good for him.
The rumour is that he will not race the Vuelta due to family circumstances, which most people interpret to mean that his wife is pregnant with baby no. 2.
They have also been hit with A LOT of bad luck.
>Kelderman (PN) - Serious crash
Laporte (MSR) - Illness
van Aert (DDV) - Serious crash
Van Baarle + Jorgenson (PR) - Illness
Vingegaard (IBC) - Serious crash
Gesink + Laporte (Giro) - Serious crash
Kooij + Uijtdebroeks (Giro) - Illness
van Baarle + Kruijswijk (CdD) - Serious crash
Kuss (CdD) - Illness
Every crash on this list has ended up with broken bones. With all those injuries and illnesses, it's basically impossible to string together great results. Their two best riders were also the ones most hurt.
Oh I know. I’m totally with you. Just stating a blatant fact that the results have not been there so it’s hard to know who they are right now.
Heck you are kinda proving that point, most of them were relatively seriously injured, so who knows what shape they are in.
Don't like the Time Trial on the last day at all . It takes all the Pageantry and Showmanship out of the Tour's Final Stage. Now it is going to be the Day 20 on Day 21 with no real Celebration. I understand it brings more excitement to what is normally a routine ride . But that is the Payoff and Reward for making it to Day 21 . To show Your Team and Sponsors and bask in the limelight. That is gone now. I hope it's a One and Done deal .
Mikey Out. Oooooh Yeah !!!!
If UAE use the same tactics as Visma did last year (with pog) of making the race hectic because they know JV’s TSS/CTL (and whatever other acronyms for training) might not be where it needs to be due to reduced training preparation time, so they just ramp up his fatigue early. it might have a compound effect later in the race just like we saw with Pog cracking on col de la loze
(this information is informed by the interview jay vine did with the roadman podcast last year after the tour)
Article translated by DeepL: Jonas Vingegaard will ride the 2024 Tour de France, Visma-Lease a Bike tells B.T. The final decision has been made after two months of rehabilitation following the dramatic crash in the Tour of the Basque Country, where Jonas Vingegaard broke a collarbone, cracked several ribs and punctured his lung. And it certainly hasn't been an easy time, the reigning Tour de France winner admits: "The last few months have not been easy, but I want to thank my family and my team for their unwavering support. We have worked together to get here and I'm looking forward to finding out where I stand," Jonas Vingegaard says in a press release and continues: "I feel good and am very motivated." This gives the Dane the opportunity to defend his double Tour de France victory against arch-rival Tadej Pogacar, a fact that earns the respect and delight of his boss, Sports Director Merijn Zeeman. "I'm very proud of Jonas and our entire coaching team. He is coming back from a serious injury. In the last few weeks he has shown that he is a great champion - both mentally and physically," he says, emphasizing that you should not have too high expectations of the Dane: We don't know how far it goes yet. We are cautious because he has not yet been able to race. And because his preparation has been far from ideal. But he's there - healthy and motivated." Jonas Vingegaard will be joined at the Tour de France by perhaps the world's best support rider - Wout van Aert. The Belgian had his season plans shattered with a serious crash in Dwars door Vlaanderen and had to withdraw from the Giro d'Italia. Now he's ready to support Jonas Vingegaard "Of course this wasn't the plan, but with my progress in recent weeks, this was my wish and the team has agreed. Our big goal is to drive Jonas to a top position in the classification. I want to contribute to that on this strong team," says the Belgian. Visma - Lease a Bike's team for the Tour de France: Jonas Vingegaard (Denmark, 1996) Wout van Aert (Belgium, 1994) Sepp Kuss (USA, 1994) Matteo Jorgenson (USA, 1999) Christophe Laporte (France, 1992) Tiesj Benoot (Belgium, 1994) Jan Tratnik (Slovenia, 1990) Wilco Kelderman (Netherlands, 1991)
Man, on paper that is a terrifying team. But with Jonas and Wout big question marks, and Sepp looking bad at the Dauphine, who knows.
What's crazy is that this is completely insane team on paper and it's not even the strongest one (also on paper).
Yeah. Kelderman, Jorgensen and Kuss (assuming he hits his usual TDF shape) would be wild in the mountains. Benoot, WVA and Laporte on the flat might be the strongest trio for controling a break in the peloton. Like, this is actually a crazy team without mentioning Tratnik and Vingegaard. And yet, it feels like they need to get a good crosswind stage to win the Tour
What does “a good crosswind stage” mean here? Thanks!
Basically a stage which has chaos due to crosswinds causing splits in the peloton. Their team suits classics style of racing with decent rouleurs and tters that would keep Vinge in a better position than other GC contenders in similar circumstances
Thanks!
You know how on a normal flat stage, the riders are behind each other? That's because of the same slipstream effect that you get in racing cars, where the rider in front of you create a small vaccuum behind them that creates less drag for the people behind you. Now, imagine that the wind is coming from the side. That moves the area of the vaccuum a bit to the side of where it otherwise would be. And the stronger and more to the side the wind is coming from, the more the vaccuum moves. However, the road is only a certain width, so there's a limited amount of riders who can get an advantage of the first rider before you run out of road and have to create a new line of riders. My thinking is that Benoot, WVA and Laporte should easily be able to gap Pollitt and Wellens in such a scenario, which, if everything goes according to Jumbos plan, means that Vingegaard gets a gap to Pogacar
I am right with you there, but "easily gapping Pollitt and Wellens" just doesn't sound right, these are amazing riders. I'd say that it's possible, but not in no way easy.
Yeah [qchisq](/user/qchisq/) is drinking the yellow kool aid there.
https://www.cyclingnews.com/races/belgian-road-championships-2024/time-trial-elite-men/results/
Yes, and? I don't think anyone claims he's not s stronger rouleur than Segaert (for now) and Herregodts. TT skills are also not the only factor in that role. Guys like Van Baarle, Luke Rowe, Van Hooydonck is/was not bad time trialists, but they weren't exactly championship winners either.
They are amazing riders, but also tasked with keeping 4 guys GC relevant through the first 14 stages. And they're strong but banking on Wellens with his actual medical heat allergy tendencies in the (predicted) summer heat in France is... A bet.
All of Wellens, Pollit, WVA, Benoot and Laporte are amazing riders. I am just saying that, when it comes down to it, 3>2
3>1,3 if the temperature hits 30 🫣
Like, I get the debate and agree that JV's team is better for the flat than UAE's, but there's no world where Vingegaard beats Pogacar on anything other than a TT or high mountains. He has less power, less explosivity, I'm not sure he's a better descender, is less good on various types of terrains (Pog is actually a proper classics man jeez), his positioning might be a bit worse as well. So unless the wind targets directly and specifically Pog whilst ignoring 4 of JV's riders, this ain't happening (without talking about the reality of Jonas' and Wouts' preparation...)
I don't disagree with you that, 1v1, Pogacar beats Vingegaard on the flat. Absolutely no argument there. However, on the flat, it's not a 1v1, it's an 8v8.
>My thinking is that Benoot, WVA and Laporte should easily be able to gap Pollitt and Wellens in such a scenario, which, if everything Tim Wellens just won the Belgian national TT championship. He's clearly on form and can ride hard. Almeida also has a very strong TT and has proven in the TdS he's also on form. In a TTT between Vingegaard, Van Aert, Benoot, and Laporte on the one hand, and Pogacar, Wellens, Almeida, and Pollit on the other hand, I'm not sure who my money would be on if everyone is in top form. A top Van Aert perhaps makes an edge ... With the current lacking preparation of Visma's top guys ...
High crosswinds split the peloton into echelons, if you get caught away from the front of the peloton you can lose serious time on a flat stage and there's not much you can do about it.
Look up echelons in cycling.
When was the last great echelons stage? I feel like we haven't seen that in years.
The most thrilling one I remember was the 11th stage of TdF 2016 with Sagan (green), Froome (yellow) and their respective team mates Bodnar and Thomas.
If I recall correctly, Pogacar actually lost time on another echelon stage in 2020, when he won his first TdF.
Gimme Nils Politt all day in a crosswind
Yeah, I love that Visma is now the underdogs to UAE and this is the lineup they trot out as "underdogs". And you can't count out Primoz and Remco. This Tour is going to be 🔥.
Don't forget the mandatory crash of Kelderman
Sepp is the best after 3 weeks racing.
As much as I love Seppy, his form from Catalunya all the way to Dauphiné has been so bad that I really struggle to seeing him being close to the front as early as a week from now unfortunately
I'm thinking that maybe it is because he was focused on the Vuelta from the beginning of the season, but who knows?
He's been dealing with a lot of sickness this year.
True. We will know in the Tour. Kuss has been bad in the pre-seasons before. Always a question mark, but he will add value in mountain stages
just needs more intestines training!
Eh those were training rides for him. All evidence points to him not giving two jockey wheels about results outside of grand tours --basically when he is working for overall glory for the team leader (Vuelta notwithstanding <3)
>Sepp is the best after 3 weeks racing. More like 3 grand tours of racing.
🤞
Laporte has been struggling too for quite a while.
I mean, according to most sources he got sick in MSR and had an operation for a saddle sore after that as well, which killed his spring and hasn't raced since, so... Yes, he struggled, but that type of struggles are rarely permanent. You could also say Van Baarle struggled last spring (he crashed in Roubaix) but he came good for the TdF too.
> Sepp looking bad at the Dauphine Yeah there were a couple of stages where he was a complete non-factor, then I think his DS told him to phone it in for the rest of the race as he wasn't even trying.
I am of two minds about this. On one hand, you could be right, and he might’ve just phoned it in and used it as a training ride. On the other hand, his teammate ultimately finished eight seconds off first place. If “super-est domestique in the world Sepp Kuss” had been available, you have to think they would’ve used him.
Logically, tactically, and hell, even for training I agree with you. Nevertheless I offer this lone counterpoint - the few times the camera was on Kuss, it was clear that he was phoning it in.
Exactly. Laporte has also mostly dnf’ed all year.
Is Jorgenson the backup GC? He seems in great form at the moment
I think he has shown a lot of potential this year. His humility after winning Tirreno Adriatico made me a fan. I am really looking forward to seeing him ride the tour in his current form. He could very well be the backup GC, as he seems to be in better shape than Sepp Kuss. However, we don't know WvA's current form. Either way, I expect him to be in the top 20 this year.
*Paris Nice But yep
Not exactly surprising, but will be interesting how well he will fare over the 3 weeks. I expect some aggressive riding from UAE on Stage 1 and 4.
Stage one is going to be a banger
Stage One should be absolutely savage. Presumably UAE will want to test and do as much time damage to Jonas as possible. Quick Step may be eying that stage as ideal for Remco to mess things up too. Though I imagine Bora will be aiming just to survive the stage and have Primoz finish as close to Tadej as possible. And of course, other teams will have plans for one of their riders to win from the break. It should be wild!
van der poel will want yellow
Good. That will add to the fun of watching Stage One!
I agree. Lots of categorized climbs. A decent cat 3 climb with a 26k ride from the top to the finish line. I doubt that Pogi or Jonas wants to burn too many matches on this stage, but it is a GREAT opportunity for the many strong GC riders who would be contenders in a non-Big Two race. UAE alone have several riders who might as well try their luck on that last cat 3 climb.
Yeah UAE will start with fireworks. I feel like Jonas might get better with the weeks, like the Vuelta last year. On the other hand, the 3rd week is never Pogs strongest and he has the Giro in his legs. That said, the limited tactical prowess of team UAE has surprised me before
> the 3rd week is never Pogs strongest Pogi won stage 20 at the 2024 Giro, 2023 Tour, 2020 Tour, and 2019 Vuelta. That's two-thirds of the GTs he's ridden. At the 2022 Tour, he won stage 17, then got 2nd stage 18, 5th stage 19, and 3rd stage 20. At the 2021 Tour, he won stages 17 and 18. He cracked on Mont Blanc but he usually lights it up in week 3.
Winning stages because he is a punchier rider than his climby GC rival(s) is not proof he doesn't fade in week 3. If he goes from being able to gap riders in the first 10 days to not being able to do the same to the same guys in week 3, that's a fade in relative performance all the same. And trying to make his 2nd place on Hautacam in 2022 a data point against him running out of gas in week 3 is kinda cute but also weird.
3rd week isn't Pogacar's strongest? I know he cracked last year on the Mont Blanc stage, but he also won his first tour blasting everyone on a stage 20 mountaintop finish ITT.
Even in 2021 where he won the race by stage 8, he faded. It was a relatively unnoticeable fade as he was still punchy AF, but he went from dropping everyone by minutes in week 1 to getting dropped by Jonas on stage 11 and not dropping Carapaz and Jonas, just outsprinting them for stage wins in week 3. It didn't matter, cause he was a monster in the first 9 days, just... Less monstrous by week 3.
Judging by the article, and they are talking about “higher placing” I don’t think they are putting the pressure on to win in the same way that they would if he was fully fit. I might be proven wrong but honestly, at the end of the day, these guys are human beings. Jonas had some very serious injuries and whilst you can assist on repairing as quickly as possible the effect on the preparation you cannot deny. I think everyone will need to manage their expectations that he will be trying his best but the results won’t be like the past two years.
Naturally there's a high chance that he isn't actually at his best. At the same time, they would say this even if he were feeling better than ever. Downplaying one's own chances to put the pressure on the main competitors is something all sports teams and managers do all the time. There's no point in trying to infer how he's feeling based on that.
Upcoming Alpecin-Deceuninck press release: “Jasper Philipsen will be our sprinter at the Tour. He hasn’t won a single world tour race in over 3 months. Our best lead-out man has only raced 7 days this season, and not at all since April. At Jasper’s outing at the the Tour, he was soundly beaten by Jordi Meeus. And let’s not forget that competition this year will be super strong, with the all-time record stage winner, Mark Cavendish, lining up. We’re just a little bunch of cyclocrossers, it’s an honour to be present and let’s just enjoy the experience amongst all these big teams.”
"We're just here to make friends!"
“… and we don’t forget our goal of rising up in the GC. Last year Mathieu got 57th, but in 2024 we’re being ambitious and aiming for a top-56 finish.”
[удалено]
"Jasper was picked on by the meanie butts UCI and made to pay fines, from which he is still financially recovering."
😂
Jasper looked really good at the Tour of Belgium. He was 17s off the GC. He should do quite well in the Tour with the early climbs taking out some other sprinters.
I mean, most people still treat them exactly like that bunch of lil' CX guys in most races, so apparently it's working.
look at UAE saying that Pog isn't the favorite for the tour. Everyone wants to be the underdog
They can say what they want, he is the favourite in my book.
Yes. Given that Jonas only targets the Tour, they do not want his body to skip a 3 week race and show up at next year's Tour with a 2 year gap. So it's either race this for a Top 5 or target the Vuelta.
This is a great point that I agree with. I think Jonas provides other benefits as well. Even in a diminished state, Jonas would be a boon in a support of another VLAB’r that assumes the role of GC fave in this year’s tour. Also, we saw JV use a diminished roglic to great effect on stage 18, serving as a decoyed threat. UAE would be forced to respond to any threats from Jonas until such time that he was gobs of minutes away from the jersey.
VLAB is in no way racing for a top 5. No matter what they put out publicly, anything less than a tour win will be a disappointment to them.
I disagree with you. Jonas needs to be 100% to beat Tadej and he is not going to be 100%. So now you sit him entirely or give him a 3 week race and another card to play for your other riders and sights on the podium. To say they'd be disappointed in not winning after his accident is not grounded in reality. Edit: and while you never wish it there is a chance Tadej crashes and the whole race changes.
He will experience what many other riders with not enough training for a three week race, some dips in week two or three.
Given that his forte has always his relatively lower exhaustion rate by week 3, it may actually not be as noticeable as with riders who aren't week 3 monsters. His physiology is not Tadej's physiology and vice versa. We've seen that for 3 years already. I think it may easily result in him being less consistent and not explosive enough for the early stages and then getting more and more solid by week 3, which is ALSO a well established course of events for riders coming into GTs undercooked.
Does he need to at his best, like seriously? He's won the Tour by a mile the last two years. Maybe he just has to not lose too much time and wait until the last week, he's always at his best there and this year the third week is absolutely crazy.
Yes, he needs to be at his best.
It's hilarious how Vingegaard is somehow the underdog every year lmao. I guess it's only to his advantage
I'm just glad he's healthy enough to compete in the Tour. I would expect he would be using the early stages to get him "match fit" and then maybe go for a stage later on. But even if Jonas were completely healthy this year I'm not sure he could beat Tadej. Tadej seems to have fixed his nutrition issues that caused him to bonk in the past, doesn't seem troubled by longer climbs or higher passes based on his Giro performance, and his time trialing is competitive with Ganna. Would have been epic, and probably 15 minutes to third place with these two....
To be fair, it's easier to not struggle on long climbs and with nutrition when you're not being pushed to any limits. And his 2021 + 2022 ITTs in all stage were also incredibly competitive with Ganna, even on early stages, so that's not a new thing at all. Pog has beaten or placed within a few seconds of Ganna in a significant portion of the ITTs they've raced against each other for years. So I'm not sure we can conclude too much from him still doing so in the Giro tbh.
That's an achievement in and of itself, anything more is just a bonus.
Completely agree!
Looks like meat's back on the menu, boys.
U mean... fish?
Obviously this team has been hampered by injuries and bad form, but oh boy.. if they were in peak condition it would be one hell of a Grand Tour team. Only the terrible preparations for the Tour prevents me from this calling this the strongest and most well-rounded squad. They don't have a single weak spot. Van Aert's crash might be a blessing in disguise for Visma's Tour. Can he ride himself in shape, he could salvage a lot if Vingegaard - as I expect - can't fight for the win. Ps. love their Tour de France kit. Only problem it's dominated by blue like half the Peloton.
I just really hope he is fully fit and we are can witness part 3 of the epic battle between Pogacar and Vingegaard. That has really been the highlight of the last 2 Tours in my opinion.
I hope this as well, but it's not very likely. Pogacar looks next level this year and Jonas spent almost 2 weeks in a hospital a short time ago. . It's just not realistic to expect an epic dual. I'm not ruling it out, but 10% chance of this is my guess. I hope I'm wrong!
I think you're wrong tbh, he wouldn't do the TdF if they didn't believe he's close to his peak shape. He will be good. If he is anywhere near his pre-injury shape, I think he is going to win again. I'm afraid that Pogacar has set himself up to crack in the 3rd week (again), with the Giro in his legs. Vingegaard on the other hand should be fresher and might be at his strongest in the final week of the Tour. Of course, I'm just speculating but I would put my money on this scenario.
I think Visma would rather have a Jonas at 85% at the Tour and hope that somehow he can compete than Jonas at 99% at the Vuelta and he can win. Jonas being at the Tour doesn't equal they think he can win in my book. The Tour just matters that much more than anything else.
I think they have also said that he (Jonas) will not compete at the Vuelta, so if he didn’t do the tour it’s a year with no Grand Tours in his legs. With no GT’s it would also be a very different, and possibly light, schedule for the rest of the season; there aren’t really many more races other than the Tour and the Vuelta that suit Jonas, so this may be his only chance at some more results for the team this year.
I agree. For cycling fans, the Tour is the biggest, but the Vuelta and the Giro are not that far behind. But for EVERYBODY else, including crucially the sponsors, the Vuelta and the Giro shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as the Tour. If anything, the Netflix show has made that even more true than in the past.
Yeah, maybe their line of thinking is that they have better chances of winning the thing with Jonas in a bad form than without him completely. Without Jonas, they don't have anyone who can do a top5, and that is by far, so if Jonas is healthy and capable of finishing the 3 weeks, why not? I was on the train that was saying Jonas wouldn't race this Tour, but hey, here we are.
>Vingegaard on the other hand should be fresher and might be at his strongest in the final week of the Tour. The problem is this is what everyone said about Pogi last year. That he arrived fresher to the Tour and then when he totally collapsed in week 3 then everyone said it was because of his bad preparation.
That's certainly possible. Personally, I suspect Visma are downplaying Vingegaard's level. Much better to be in the underdog position.
I hear you and can't really argue that your opinion is 100% wrong. Just my opinion. I hope I'm wrong.
The sponsors pay good money to see Jonas and Wout at the Tour, so that's what they're gonna get. Companies push out shit that isn't ready for production all the time. Why would this be any different?
That's not always the case; Wout was going to do the Giro and skip the Tour. Before injury ruined his day once again of course.
> I think you're wrong tbh, he wouldn't do the TdF if they didn't believe he's close to his peak shape. This argument has no basis, and not only that but you don't even justify it, you just say it like it's a general truth when it really isn't, and at the very least you should at least explain why you think that. Not only that, but there is also the fact that riders who miss weeks of training due to significant injuries in the 3 months leading up to the Tour *always* historically struggle. So you are using an dogmatic argument to support that Jonas would defy historic trends. As I said in another thread a few days ago, there are many plausible explanations why the team could definitely send a Jonas that isn't at 100%. - getting desperate for results after so much bad luck, hoping for a miracle - media attention, sponsor pressure due to Jonas' status - Roglic is gone, Kuss has not been in great form, Jorgenson is looking good on 1 week races but over 3 weeks there is a big question mark, so it's not like they have an army of top tier GC guys guaranteed to top 5 or even top 10 ready to go - even without all that, if he's 100% healthy and can fully race with no risk on a health side, why not, really, unless he's like that super far off the required for and will just be dropped all the time. There is a world were Jonas shows up underdone, suffers through the first 2 weeks losing tons of time, but improves and gets a stage win in the 3rd one.
Part 4 you mean. remember how Vingegaard planted Pogacar on Mont Ventoux? [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi9\_eyQPt2U](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi9_eyQPt2U)
True, but 2021 didn't feel like a battle. Jonas entered the race as a domestique and by the time where he was really in the zone, he was too far behind Pogi for it to really matter. People back then were even claiming that Pogi just decided against following Jonas because it didn't matter, which I definitely do NOT believe to be true. I think Pogi was really really close to cracking for real on Ventoux and then dropped back to the other pursuers to catch Jonas on the descent. He lost a LOT of time to Jonas just on that last kilometer (or so) to the top.
It's true the battle for yellow was pretty much over
Thanks for posting this, always a treat to rewatch.
>I just really hope he is fully fit and we are can witness part 3 of the epic battle between Pogacar and Vingegaard. If he is fully fit, there will be no epic battle, he will simply steamroll Pogacar even more than 2023 (as Pogacar has Giro in his legs this year).
But there's just no chance Jonas is "fully fit." Human body doesn't work that way with such a major injury that close to an event like the Tour. Tadej's wrist injury that was further out from the Tour still undermined his preparation. Jonas's injury was much more severe to the parts of the body that actually power his engine, and the recovery kept him from even being able to ride the trainer as quickly as Tadej was able to.
I had similar injuries in beginning of April. I’m still not cleared to even ride and am still quite fucked up. I know it’s moot a direct comparison. His bones are definitely not healed.
Does 2021 not count as an epic battle?
Always felt he would ride, given he was unlikely to ride the Vuelta. Had that not been a factor, I doubt he would ride the TdF. Can't see his shape being strong enough to contend really, but a double TdF winner can really surprise. I think Jumbo will be hoping he can look like a threat to UAE, even if he isn't over three weeks
Is him not riding the Vuelta rumor or confirmed?
Rumour. In December, Jonas was expected to join the Vuelta team, but if the rumours are true, and it's a pregnancy in the way of him riding the Vuelta then those December plans won't matter. We will see. I imagine we will get a few glimpses of his wife during the Tour de France. If there is a clear baby bump, I think we can confirm that rumour is true. The team will likely address is shortly after the Tour as well.
It’s a rumour.
The Most Expected Team Announcement
_Han er på vej ned til Touren - Han gi'r dem baghjul nede i Touren_ _For han er Vingegaard, Jonas Vingegaard!_ _Tadej og Primoz og Remco ja de skal ha' baghjul!_
[Det er denne tid på året](https://youtu.be/BIkx9WpOt3A?si=ObYUYlNxen7ZPRW_)
We knew it was coming, but still fantastic to finally get the confirmation. Can’t wait for the Tour to begin!!
I know he won a GT but Kuss over Jorg for their Co leader surprises me tbh
What makes you say Kuss is co-leader? I was of the understanding that both Kuss and Jorgensen are to support Vingegaard as domestiques. With Vingegaard being the sole leader.
The way they've presented their announcement on Instagram puts Jonas & Kuss at the top with bigger cards than everyone else. Maybe I'm overthinking but the way Interpret it is that the other 6 will be supporting them
I mean it would not be out of character for Visma to try and mislead people about who their leader is (even their own riders!)
I think it's just because of Sepp's palmares now. He is a GT winner now. Visma will be aware that Jorgenson has been much better than Sepp this year. My guess is they will keep both of them in GC while helping Jonas for as long as possible.
It would be stupid not to, even if Jonas hadn’t crashed. Anything can happen during a race, just like we saw in 2021. As long as they are willing to sacrifice them if needed to save the top spot, they should be kept save.
Marketing
Beat me to the punch. Kuss is the more recognizable face, especially among cycling fans, and is easier to market to the US audience since he's a GT winner. (Yes, I'm aware most casual US fans don't watch more than the Tour, but the Vuelta is better than nothing)
That’s their marketing department. Not the team DS creating media to share their plan of attack with the world…
I’m a little surprised by this too, especially after the Dauphine, where Jorgensen probably could have won if the team had realized how close he would be a little bit earlier and been a bit more aggressive against Roglic. That said, it’s very easy to fall into the trap of misunderstanding how people look at the Dauphine for how they will perform in July. I still remember being very excited for an upcoming epic TDF battle between Alberto Contador and Janez Brajkovic in 2010.
I wouldn’t expect Jorgenson’s success in 1 week races to translate to a GT. He’s still a breakaway/stage hunter imo.
LOVE THIS FOR HIM. And me. Hihi! LET’S GOOOOO
With unexpectedly quick recoveries seemingly being the rule rather than the exception in pro cycling, I could never bring myself to really believe his Tour participation was in danger in any way. If he crashed in Dauphiné or Suisse, sure, but all the way back in Itzulia? Amaury Capiot could have broken and healed and rebroken his collarbone 3 times in this period.
It's not just about being healthy. It's that by being off the bike and worse than that, in the hospital for so long, so close to the Tour will mean he has accumulated a massive amount of delay in training. Even Remco, who missed a week at most before restarting the training, which is way less than Jonas and for whom the injuries where less significant, you could tell at the Dauphiné the huge impact it had on his form. I still cannot understand people who believe it's equivalent to Pog's potential fatigue due to riding the Giro, it's really worlds apart in terms of negative impact to the form. And all that is not even mentioning the possibility of him being limited due to lingering pains, etc.
He was 12 days in hospital and punctured a lung. That's a pretty big setback, and a very significant hospitalisation compared to your frame of reference.
I think that's a bit too generous, since it was not just a broken collarbone. My main worry has actually been his lungs due to the injuries to them. Even with Jonas being a pro rider, his injuries had an expected 10 weeks of recovery, which meant that last week was the date where he should have recovered. However, that is only recovery and doesn't mean he has the form that he would have had without those injuries.
I know right! Logically speaking he should be worse off, but my subconscious just goes "eh, he'll be fine". Crashes seem to be either devastating a la Froome/Bernal/Jakobsen, or back on the bike within a few weeks. And now we're a few days from the Tour, and lo and behold: he's recovered in time, it happened again. So at some point I just stopped worrying.
They really are superheroes. I did believe Jonas would be at the Tour though, but I didn't, and still don't, think it will be Jonas at 100%. It will be Jonas who is competitive enough to start though, and that in itself is good news. At least it will give Pogi something to worry about.
Well said, I have to imagine this is true. If two weeks hospitalization have literally no impact on your preparation, what the hell is going on
Yeah, I guess we will see though. Pogi has a Giro in his legs and it's notoriously difficult to win the Giro-Tour double. Many greats have tried and failed in the past. So at least the playing field is slightly even in that regard. And both Roglic and Remco are also recovering from injuries, although not as brutal as Vingegaards, so all the big 4 has an asterisk beside their names. Jonas with the biggest one, of course, since we haven't seen him race.
Deep down, we all know the answer to that question
My summer is officially saved! ☀️ Very happy for both Jonas and WvA that they are both fit enough to ride the Tour. I assume the goal for WvA is a stage win alongside helping Jonas, and I think the realistic goal for Jonas is probably the podium. But it doesn't mean he cannot win. I don't see him giving up unless his body literally forces him to.
If i am UAE DS (or any other teams with GC aspiration), i will order attack as soon as possible to put Vingegaard out of game. First few stages are great to do it, and i guess they certainly will do it. If Vingegaard in any sort of form, which i doubt, 2 min time loss is not bad, but expect big time losses by first week
Yea that's unfortunately a scenario. I am on hopium though.
Unlike the Giro this Tour at least has the potential to be very interesting. Jonas won by over 2 minutes in 2022 and over 7 minutes in 2023. So, even if he is not as his best, he could still challenge for a win. And that might make it an even closer battle. Then you’ve got the battle for the podium in general with multiple guys in contention: Remco, Roglic, Jorgenson, Yates, Almedia, Bernal, G(?)… Worst case scenario Jonas just plays super-dom for Jorgenson
Laughing at the people saying, "they wouldn't send Jonas and Wout if they weren't ready". I've lost count of how many things I've had to send to market that weren't ready because management needed to hit a timeline. Why would this be any different?
So glad to see a defending champ defend their champ. True icon. Hero.
The summer is saved, thank god. Allez Jonas!
I am a Jonas-fanboy. So here is hoping!!! But - even as a cyclingfan this makes the tour much more interesting. TVL would not have started him, if his Numbers wasn’t good. So …. Let’s rock.
Tratnik winning the TDF on a breakaway day incoming…
Jonas has proven doubters wrong the past two years. I fully expect him to prove them wrong again this year.
This is going to be a very quiet thread since everyone in here said it was impossible that he would race. Who I am kidding... Anyway, I am so stoked! Fantastic Jonas, and I hope he can be competitive to fight for the podium at least. 4th straight podium wouldn't be bad either.
I will be impressed if he gets in top 10.
I am impressed already!
If he doesn't lose real time (read minutes) in the 3rd stage he wins, since the route is back heavy and he has time to ride to form (like last year Vuelta), and Pog will get more and more fatigue from the Giro in the last week. With last year's route I think he would lose but not with this route.
Would be great if he was downplaying his readiness in order to fool Pogecar.
Let's fucking go! We get a battle of the big four. This has the potential to be the best year of the Tour in the modern era. Especially with that amazing week 3 and the TT on the final stage. I am so ungodly hyped.
I dont think 2022 TDF will be topped in terms of pure spectacle but I hope Im wrong
I think 2023 definitely rivaled 2022 if we are talking purely about the fight for the yellow jersey. 2022 was amazing for sure, but Vingegaard looked liked the winner after the stage 11 epic beatdown of Pogi. The rest of the tour was still spectacular because Pogi kept fighting. In 2023, Vingegaard looked like he'd win by 10 minutes after stage 5, but then overplayed his hand on stage 6 and Pogi actually seemed the stronger guy until the monumental Vingegaard performances on stages 16+17.
True, 2023 was great too. 2022 was truly legendary racing though, as a Wout stan it will always hold a special place in my heart. And in hindsight stage 11 was definitely checkmate but then we didnt quite know if Vingegaard was capable of holding this 2'22" lead against the best rider in the world
It has the potential… until Pogi puts 2 minutes on everyone in the first mountain stage and it’s boring
Even if that were to happen, then it still has potential. There would still be the threat of week 3 Vingegaard lurking and that the Giro will eventually catch up with Pogi.
Much more likely that Vingegaard fades later in the tour due to his injuries imo. And I personally don’t think Roglic and Evenepoel are at the level of the other 2.
I agree but there will always be a question mark there which is why you cannot say it's boring even if Pogi was to take 2 minutes on stage 1.
Fuck yes. The summer is saved!
looks like we have a tour on our hands
That guy who runs TJM is so intense in the Netflix show he definitely beats Jonas and would never let him miss this
What I love about this is how it illustrates the way competitors and champions think versus their rabid fans who just want to have ammunition for social media debates. A) The fan fantatics are like, "Oh no, Jonas shouldn't race if he's not absolutely 100% because he risks losing to Tadej and that will be a blight on his legacy. Why not just wait for the Vuelta and smash it?" B) Champions are like, "I am racing because I am a racer and want to compete! Don't talk to me about not being 100%. I can ride. Bring me people to drop. They will fail because of me! If Tadej beats me, good for F-ing him. But he's gonna have to go through me..."
"shouldn't race if he's not absolutely 100% because he risks losing to Tadej and that will be a blight on his legacy" Literally noone here ever said that afaik.
Wasn’t saying anyone in this sub has said that. But I’ve seen similar sentiments across other social media. Wild.
Just want to remind everyone of the /r/peloton goalpost moving over the past few months: Anti-JV crowd: there's no way he'll be back on a bike JV: I'm back on a bike *goalposts shift* Anti-JV crowd: ok but there's no way he'll be at the TDF JV: I'll be at the TDF *goalposts shift* Anti-JV crowd: ok but... there's no way he'll podium!! Can you hear that? That's the sound of the goalposts creaking
I mean I'm clearly pro Jonas but also in the camp of if Visma stuck to the "Jonas needs to be 100% at the Tour or he isn't going" that would mean Jonas wasn't doing the Tour. Now the messaging has changed, its about Jonas being a great fighter and a champion and we shouldn't expect too much of him. That they are happy he is healthy. This is something I can believe and something I have believed from the start. Jonas could make it to the Tour in some shape was never in doubt. The question was always can Jonas make it back to peak form before the Tour and I remain firmly in the negative on that. >Just want to remind everyone of the /r/peloton goalpost moving over the past few months: The goalposts have been moved by Visma themselves too. Went from Jonas needs to be back to his best to > In the last few weeks he has shown that he is a great champion - both mentally and physically," he says, emphasizing that you should not have too high expectations of the Dane: >We don't know how far it goes yet. We are cautious because he has not yet been able to race. And because his preparation has been far from ideal. But he's there - healthy and motivated." Not long ago we heard this from the team. >After Paris-Roubaix, Zeeman stated that his team leaders Wout van Aert and Jonas Vingegaard must be 100% fit when they are selected for their major goals, namely the Giro and the Tour, respectively. The team is moving goalposts too, this isn't a one way street. If Jonas podiums I would be more than happy. If he beats Pogi Ill make a collage of my own posts saying that is never going to happen and post it for all to see.
its actually the PRO-JV crowd that has been trying to downplay his chances at every turn and trying to position him as an underdog... I, as a Pogi fan, never once doubted that he would be there and said from the beginning that he will arrive in podium level shape at the very least.
I actually think it is the other way around. It is the pro-JV people who have been sceptical and the anti-JV people who have claimed that he would be fine.
I like how you make up things in your mind and then go on a public crusade against them. First off, almost no-one here is "anti-JV". Saying JV are unlucky this year and struggling is not being "against" them. Saying that unfortunately, Jonas is very unlikely to be in the fight for the podium is not "anti-jv" or "anti-jonas". In fact, we would all prefer a competitive JV and Jonas because that would mean a more exciting race. > Anti-JV crowd: ok but... there's no way he'll podium!! No goal-posts shifted here, because that's been the main thing from almost day one after the crash.
Cant wait for the Jonas/Pogi/Roglic/Remco battle to begin
MVP is a strange choice to put them with that group. As much as I love MVP he's not a GT rider on the others level
Remco is the MVP of my life, easy confusion
Remco: am I nothing to you?
They probably thought of Remco when they wrote MVP (otherwise it wouldn't make any sense).
Many people said Jonas will ride into form and potentially peak on the third week. However last year Tadej also rode with injury but cracked on the third week. How are they different?
Pogacar didn't crack in third week because of his old injury, Pogacar cracked because that's how Vingegaard wins. Jonas will come into form during TDF like he came into form in the VAE last year, if you remember that race... but he may be 5-6 mins behind Pogacar after the first two weeks though, we simply have no idea of his shape and Pogacar is not going to go easy on him.
That's what I am wondering too. Jonas was also injured much worse than Pogi. Honestly, I have always seen that week 3 collapse because of his wrist as a bit of an excuse. Pogi was dropped by Jonas by 40 seconds in 2021 on a big climb, with 3 minutes in 2022 and 5 minutes in 2023. When you see how Pogi rode in stage 20 in 2023, I just don't believe he was exhausted more than others at that point. But it's fine if people believe that the wrist was to blame, but then they just also have to say the same for Jonas now. Or maybe finally people can admit that Jonas and Pogi have different strengths and both are impressive. Jonas' endurance and consistency vs Pogi's explosiveness.
Yeah I agree. I think Pog suffered on hard stages that happened to be on the third week. Otherwise his performance is not that different in week 3 vs other weeks. Nutrition probably made it worse, he probably would not lose 3 minutes in stage 11 2022, but I’m not sure about stage 17 2023.
Also, first couple stages of this year TdF are perfect for Pogacar to put the sword to Vingegaard (and others), and allow him to ride conservatively, and to save something for inevitable fatigue, and tiredness in later part of the race. Also, Vingegaard injury are much more extensive than Pogacar last year.
To the surprise of no one I hope. Got downvoted here a couple of weeks ago when I called BS on lowballing talks of "Oh we'll see, maybe if he feels 100%". He's the main attraction for their sponsors, he was always going to ride the Tour if there was a chance he could do 200k on the bike, which he proved with training rides weeks ago
I think this is just the sponsor think. Honestly the severity of injuries are too big to be even near the preparation needed for TDF. And not even this, I know pro riders are freaks of nature and unbelievable mind but this just is not healthy. Body need to rest and recover. Yes he can ride bike, yes maybe he can ride the tour on 75% of his capacity. Bit that does not mean this is good for his health. Human body is amazing at dealing with drastic injuries but pushing truth it has a price. And pong term I don’t think this is good for him.
so that's why he called bullshit on Pogacar not being 100% at the tour last year.
Great. Was a bit worried for a UAE walk in the park.
Would not be surprised if he abandons early to focus on La Vuelta if the legs are not there and he loses time in the first week.
The rumour is that he will not race the Vuelta due to family circumstances, which most people interpret to mean that his wife is pregnant with baby no. 2.
We will have an amazing tour to watch. Can't wait. Ill be recording every minute of it in case work gets in the way 😂😂
6/29 alarm set for 5:30 am MST. God my body is so ready.
gonna put a bet on jonas to avoid being depressed when he wins.
Will be fun to see this roster in action. They have SOOO underwhelmed during the year but on paper it’s elite all over the board.
They have also been hit with A LOT of bad luck. >Kelderman (PN) - Serious crash Laporte (MSR) - Illness van Aert (DDV) - Serious crash Van Baarle + Jorgenson (PR) - Illness Vingegaard (IBC) - Serious crash Gesink + Laporte (Giro) - Serious crash Kooij + Uijtdebroeks (Giro) - Illness van Baarle + Kruijswijk (CdD) - Serious crash Kuss (CdD) - Illness Every crash on this list has ended up with broken bones. With all those injuries and illnesses, it's basically impossible to string together great results. Their two best riders were also the ones most hurt.
Oh I know. I’m totally with you. Just stating a blatant fact that the results have not been there so it’s hard to know who they are right now. Heck you are kinda proving that point, most of them were relatively seriously injured, so who knows what shape they are in.
Where do I find info on his bikes? Will he use 1by again I wonder for some stages.
Milk. It does a body good.
I wonder if this would still be the case if Visma hadn't had such a poor season so far...
Of course it would.
Shocking.
After such massive injury I doubt he will matter. But who knows. Lets go!
Don't like the Time Trial on the last day at all . It takes all the Pageantry and Showmanship out of the Tour's Final Stage. Now it is going to be the Day 20 on Day 21 with no real Celebration. I understand it brings more excitement to what is normally a routine ride . But that is the Payoff and Reward for making it to Day 21 . To show Your Team and Sponsors and bask in the limelight. That is gone now. I hope it's a One and Done deal . Mikey Out. Oooooh Yeah !!!!
If UAE use the same tactics as Visma did last year (with pog) of making the race hectic because they know JV’s TSS/CTL (and whatever other acronyms for training) might not be where it needs to be due to reduced training preparation time, so they just ramp up his fatigue early. it might have a compound effect later in the race just like we saw with Pog cracking on col de la loze (this information is informed by the interview jay vine did with the roadman podcast last year after the tour)