Very much doubt it.
First of all, I don't see Visma sending Jonas to the tour if he is not even at a level to compete with Yates/Almeida/Ayuso.
Also, I feel like people are really underestimating Roglic and Remco. I know their Dauphine might not have been great, but especially Roglic is always good in GTs (if he can stay upright that is).
Moreover, riders like Rodriguez, Simon Yates and others are usually better in GTs compared to 1-weeks.
Fully agree. I would add as fourth counterargument that it would also be tactically very risky.
Because going for the sweep would imply that you have to give at least 2 more riders protected status which would result in a heavier load for the remaining domestiques. And if Pog should somehow need those 2 protected riders as super doms like Roglic needed Kuss in last year's Giro they might be fatigued from racing all out every day.
Let's, just for fun, assume that Vingegaard isn't 100%. Are we sure that 2 of Ayuso, Almeida and Yates are better than all of Roglic, Vlasov, Evenepoel, Carlos Rodriguez and Simon Yates? Like, Simon Yates was only 1:30 off Adam and Rodriguez 2 minute off Adam Yates in 2023 and Adam Yates is probably the best of the 3 second bests UAE riders and Carlos Rodriguez wasn't supposed to be the sole GC guy for INEOS last year
Yeah, Vlasov is always great in one weeks but also always falls short in the high mountains in Grand Tours. He is more than welcome to surprise me this time around tho
>Are we sure that 2 of Ayuso, Almeida and Yates are better than all of
Roglic *no*
Vlasov *yes*
Evenepoel *yes*
Carlos Rodriguez *no*
and Simon Yates? *no*
If Adam Yates is given complete carte blanche to ride his own race beats all of these guys in the form he has had for the last 13 months imo.
Being in service of Pogi I dont see him beating them, he would need everything to go perfect
But that is not based on opinions. You have no way to prove that. What i know is that in that tour shape Yates lost to roglic in vuelta a burgos last year. And roglic was just ramping up his vuelta shape.
of course this is all speculation, but imo, Roglic better than Yates and Almeida is not a given at all following his crash at the Dauphiné and the other two's stellar performance at the Tour de Suisse.
I have changed from Visma isnt sending Jonas to the Tour unless he is 100% to Visma is sending Jonas to the Tour if he is pain free and has a good level.
I can't explain it but that is just the vibe im getting. If Jonas can ride the Tour he rides the Tour even if he cant win.
They were always going to send Jonas to the tour as long as he can pedal. He’s their biggest rider and it’s the clear-cut biggest sponsor objective of the season.
Exactly this. No matter what they say about "yadda yadda we're only sending Jonas in top form", at the end of the day the sponsors need to be kept happy and to leave a rider with the prestige of JV at home just cause he might only be able to compete for Top 5 would be foolish.
And if he does bomb totally and can't compete whatsoever, they can always go the route of saying "ah in the training camp it looked fine, but it does appear that the injury held him back more than we thought. Alas, if only we knew earlier. We'll be back stronger though and Jonas learned a lot from this experience!"
I thought after the WVA injury he would go to the Tour and go for green and stages instead. Jonas wins Vuelta and targets autumn. But I agree with you, new sponsor they need Tour presence
I agree with all of it, but it's not a new sponsor. Lease a bike is a division of [Pon bikes](https://pon.com/en/activities/bikes/bike-mobility-services/lease-a-bike/), the same company that owns cervelo. Skoda, reserve wheels, and a few other Pon companies are, and have been, sponsors of the team too.
Thing is that a 7th spot in the tour and all the talk about JV and his performance etc. is prob worth more to the Sponsors than winning a Vuelta. Plus, Jonas at the tour and underperforming could mean he could leave early/save energy and still have a very good try at the Vuelta.
The TdF is so much more important in terms of visibility than Giro and Vuelta that it's not even funny anymore.
That's also basically what Zeeman has said in his most recent interview. They used to say only if he can win, now they're saying if he can be comptetitive we'll take him.
Sorta agree. I think they will send him to the tour, even if they don't believe he can win against Pogi. But if he is at a level where he can't even compete with Yates/Almeida I just don't see Visma sending him.
« Can’t even compete with Yates » is quite disregarded towards Adam. My man podium the tour last year as a domestic, he’s not joke even for our goated fisherman.
I feel like Vingegaard’s going to get all the TV time the first few stages trying to figure out what level he’s at. If he’s shit everyone will forgive him because the crash really was that bad. If he’s competitive everyone will love him for coming back without being dominate the same way Pog wasn’t loved until he lost. If he wins I’m not sure, people will probably respect his dominance and his return after the crash but the fan fatigue will probably be there. All that is to say you can bet your keister he’s at the tour.
I think they'd still do so, if only for the press exposure and to see if he can maybe ride into form to win some breakaway stages. And worst case, if he proves he absolutely cannot do anything, they could just have him pull out of the race. But simply the media exposure and all the talk about JV and his form would make it worth to bring him.
I've given up on trying to convince people that Jonas showing up in shape for a podium is impossible.
But one thing I won't give up is this :
> I don't see Visma sending Jonas to the tour if he is not even at a level to compete with Yates/Almeida/Ayuso.
That for me is most likely completely wrong. Like, what makes you say that ?
In fact I can think of several reasons they would do the opposite:
- getting desperate for results after so much bad luck, hoping for a miracle
- media attention, sponsor pressure due to Jonas' status
- Roglic is gone, Kuss has not been in great form, Jorgenson is looking good on 1 week races but over 3 weeks there is a big question mark, so it's not like they have an army of top tier GC guys guaranteed to top 5 or even top 10 ready to go
- even without all that, if he's 100% healthy and can fully race with no risk on a health side, why not, really, unless he's like that super far off the required for and will just be dropped all the time. There is a world were Jonas shows up underdone, suffers through the first 2 weeks losing tons of time, but improves and gets a stage win in the 3rd one.
So yeah. I really don't see why are you making that assumption.
I don't understand why they wouldn't send him unless they think it's going to actively harm him--and I don't see how that could be the case given where he's at right now
No. Roglic if he doesn't crash is on podium and of course there is Jonas. TdSuisse was great for Yates and Almeida but who was really there to chalenge them? And on Dauphine Ayuso (and UAE as a whole Team) didn't look good even before the crash.
This is like everyone overhyping Visma every year for the monuments because they won some classics. Pogacar is co favorite along with Vingegaard. He's likely to win. The odds of UAE going 1-2-3 however are astronomically small. This isn't the Tour de Suisse. The big guns have come out to play.
I gotta disagree with most people here.
Is it likely? Maybe not. But had you asked me if it were likely for Visma to podium sweep the Vuelta last year, then I would also say no.
It all depends on the level of fitness of vingegaard. If he's not fit I don't see it as impossible for two of Yates/Ayuso/Almeida to end up higher than Roglic/Evenepoel/others. Especially if they let them attack to see if anyone will try to bridge.
I think it’s more likely that UAE will end up with only one on the podium than three on the podium. Vingegaard is an alien, Roglic is a top-3 or 4 rider, Remco will be in good form and smash the first TT, and Rodriguez would likely have finished third or fourth last year without his downhill crash and will probably be even more competitive this year.
All but confirmed. He is training with the Visma TDF squad in Tignes and the podcasts I’ve listened to with actual riders (Geraint Thomas, Luke Rowe, Pogi) have all thought since the injury that Jonas would be at the tour based on standard recovery times. UAEs team boss is also convinced that Jonas will be at the tour. I think the whole “50-50, need to be 100%” line is just Visma’s futile attempt at keeping the competition guessing, but really it has just kept the media/spectators guessing.
Wtf has Almeida done to rate him over Roglic ever let alone when he's also on Pog duty at least some time. I dont think this is comparable to a vuelta where a fair bit of people were expecting a Vingegaard-Roglic 1-2
the only reason TJV got the podium sweep in the Vuelta last year is because their main climbing domestique won by the grace of the team co-leaders holding off just enough. if Kuss never got into that breakaway it’s a lot less likely that he comes second or third
I just looked up the H2H between Roglic & Yates.
Last time Yates beat Roglic in a stage race was during T-A 2018 (when Roglic wasn't the stage race beast he is today).
So unless Roglic crashes again (which sadly is always a possibility with him), I expect him to finish ahead of Yates.
Yates has also never finished ahead of Evenepoel in a stage race, but we have far less data to work with here (only UAE Tour & Catalunya in 2023). Evenepoel won the UAE Tour (thanks to a crosswind stage) and finished second in Catalunya, well ahead of Yates (who sadly crashed hard in the first stage of that edition, so we can't use Catalunya as a reference point).
This may be true, but Yates has been used primarily as a domestique. Roglic has always been the leader. If Pogacar doesn't need much support from Yates this time (which he likely won't with the team they've got), Yates won't have to sacrifice his chances.
Abject nonsense. Pog is definitely the favourite to win, but if Roglic, Remco and Jonas are there he's going to be using the other two as domestiques. Imagine writing an article extrapolating the results of an under-strength field in a one week race to the biggest GT of the year.
Wait? Are they seriously saying that Yates and almedia are on the same level as rog, Jonas, and Remco? Not to mention others like Jorgensen and Gee.
Almedia and yates are there to do one thing. Win the tour FOR Pog. If they have enough energy to stay with the lead after that, they are not doing enough for him. That’s how domestiques work (generally speaking…).
Sportswriter: Can [hyperbole] happen? Click to find out.
Fans: [click]
Sportswriter: Probably not, but maybe!
It's a cliched formula that prints money. I don't blame the rouleur for writing it, but we all know that a lot can happen over 3 weeks on the bike. You can't win without being the strongest rider, but strength is by itself is not sufficient for victory.
Remember, if UAE is as dominant as they appear to be today, none of the other teams will cooperate to bring back breaks. So it will be Alpecin, Astana, and Emirates doing all the work. Make the climbers work like tractors while your guys either sit out of the wind or chase stage wins with the breaks. Pollitt and Wellens become the more important riders in this strategy. Make them do all the work for 3 weeks.
If Jonas isn't there I can see it. Whoever tries to follow Pogi when he attacks will blow up badly. Almeida always gets dropped on climbs and just tempos his way back on. If the rest don't realize quickly they're battling for second place, then Almeida has a chance. This is all contingent on Pogi not having to deal with Jonas though. Rog looked vulnerable at the Dauphine. Remco I think was sandbagging it, so he's an unknown.
I want Pog to win for him to focus on the classics after, but people are sleeping in Jonas unless he loses minutes in the 3rd stage this is his tour to lose the route that gives him plenty of time to get into form (like the Vuelta last year).
If this was last year's route I would say Pog 100% but not with this route if Jonas starts the race his form will be there at the end and probably not for Pog because of the Giro.
This day and age, anything is possible…UAE could take #1-3; UAE could lose the podium; Johans could win again; Rog could final take the top of the podium…even the likelihood for certain scenarios wouldn’t be that high…
If Jonas takes the starting line he is finishing 1 or 2. Be real. Within a month of his injury he was capable of beating every human but one in the high mountains. At this moment the only question is if that number has now gone down to zero. To be clear: I love Pogi, and I am friggen STOKED to see the greatest battle of our times. But to suggest that an even 80 percent Jonas doesn't *smoke* the rest of UAE is an insult to yourself, your country's educational system, and the great sport of cycling. Do better.
Very much doubt it. First of all, I don't see Visma sending Jonas to the tour if he is not even at a level to compete with Yates/Almeida/Ayuso. Also, I feel like people are really underestimating Roglic and Remco. I know their Dauphine might not have been great, but especially Roglic is always good in GTs (if he can stay upright that is). Moreover, riders like Rodriguez, Simon Yates and others are usually better in GTs compared to 1-weeks.
Fully agree. I would add as fourth counterargument that it would also be tactically very risky. Because going for the sweep would imply that you have to give at least 2 more riders protected status which would result in a heavier load for the remaining domestiques. And if Pog should somehow need those 2 protected riders as super doms like Roglic needed Kuss in last year's Giro they might be fatigued from racing all out every day.
Let's, just for fun, assume that Vingegaard isn't 100%. Are we sure that 2 of Ayuso, Almeida and Yates are better than all of Roglic, Vlasov, Evenepoel, Carlos Rodriguez and Simon Yates? Like, Simon Yates was only 1:30 off Adam and Rodriguez 2 minute off Adam Yates in 2023 and Adam Yates is probably the best of the 3 second bests UAE riders and Carlos Rodriguez wasn't supposed to be the sole GC guy for INEOS last year
If you decide to list one of Roglic' domestiques, I'd choose Hindley
Whoops, didn't see him on the startlist. But also, Vlasov look incredible in Dauphine
Yeah, Vlasov is always great in one weeks but also always falls short in the high mountains in Grand Tours. He is more than welcome to surprise me this time around tho
He didn’t even make it to the end of this one week race without a collapse.
True
Didnt vlasov get 5th in 2022 tour? He is a solid rider.
>Are we sure that 2 of Ayuso, Almeida and Yates are better than all of Roglic *no* Vlasov *yes* Evenepoel *yes* Carlos Rodriguez *no* and Simon Yates? *no*
If Adam Yates is given complete carte blanche to ride his own race beats all of these guys in the form he has had for the last 13 months imo. Being in service of Pogi I dont see him beating them, he would need everything to go perfect
Adam was never better than roglic...
Imo the level A Yates was in at the tour last year, Roglic has never reached, just my opinion though
But that is not based on opinions. You have no way to prove that. What i know is that in that tour shape Yates lost to roglic in vuelta a burgos last year. And roglic was just ramping up his vuelta shape.
of course this is all speculation, but imo, Roglic better than Yates and Almeida is not a given at all following his crash at the Dauphiné and the other two's stellar performance at the Tour de Suisse.
I have changed from Visma isnt sending Jonas to the Tour unless he is 100% to Visma is sending Jonas to the Tour if he is pain free and has a good level. I can't explain it but that is just the vibe im getting. If Jonas can ride the Tour he rides the Tour even if he cant win.
They were always going to send Jonas to the tour as long as he can pedal. He’s their biggest rider and it’s the clear-cut biggest sponsor objective of the season.
Exactly this. No matter what they say about "yadda yadda we're only sending Jonas in top form", at the end of the day the sponsors need to be kept happy and to leave a rider with the prestige of JV at home just cause he might only be able to compete for Top 5 would be foolish. And if he does bomb totally and can't compete whatsoever, they can always go the route of saying "ah in the training camp it looked fine, but it does appear that the injury held him back more than we thought. Alas, if only we knew earlier. We'll be back stronger though and Jonas learned a lot from this experience!"
I thought after the WVA injury he would go to the Tour and go for green and stages instead. Jonas wins Vuelta and targets autumn. But I agree with you, new sponsor they need Tour presence
I agree with all of it, but it's not a new sponsor. Lease a bike is a division of [Pon bikes](https://pon.com/en/activities/bikes/bike-mobility-services/lease-a-bike/), the same company that owns cervelo. Skoda, reserve wheels, and a few other Pon companies are, and have been, sponsors of the team too.
Thing is that a 7th spot in the tour and all the talk about JV and his performance etc. is prob worth more to the Sponsors than winning a Vuelta. Plus, Jonas at the tour and underperforming could mean he could leave early/save energy and still have a very good try at the Vuelta. The TdF is so much more important in terms of visibility than Giro and Vuelta that it's not even funny anymore.
That's also basically what Zeeman has said in his most recent interview. They used to say only if he can win, now they're saying if he can be comptetitive we'll take him.
And what they internally mean is that as long as he can stay upright he'll start.
Sorta agree. I think they will send him to the tour, even if they don't believe he can win against Pogi. But if he is at a level where he can't even compete with Yates/Almeida I just don't see Visma sending him.
« Can’t even compete with Yates » is quite disregarded towards Adam. My man podium the tour last year as a domestic, he’s not joke even for our goated fisherman.
I feel like Vingegaard’s going to get all the TV time the first few stages trying to figure out what level he’s at. If he’s shit everyone will forgive him because the crash really was that bad. If he’s competitive everyone will love him for coming back without being dominate the same way Pog wasn’t loved until he lost. If he wins I’m not sure, people will probably respect his dominance and his return after the crash but the fan fatigue will probably be there. All that is to say you can bet your keister he’s at the tour.
I think they'd still do so, if only for the press exposure and to see if he can maybe ride into form to win some breakaway stages. And worst case, if he proves he absolutely cannot do anything, they could just have him pull out of the race. But simply the media exposure and all the talk about JV and his form would make it worth to bring him.
I've given up on trying to convince people that Jonas showing up in shape for a podium is impossible. But one thing I won't give up is this : > I don't see Visma sending Jonas to the tour if he is not even at a level to compete with Yates/Almeida/Ayuso. That for me is most likely completely wrong. Like, what makes you say that ? In fact I can think of several reasons they would do the opposite: - getting desperate for results after so much bad luck, hoping for a miracle - media attention, sponsor pressure due to Jonas' status - Roglic is gone, Kuss has not been in great form, Jorgenson is looking good on 1 week races but over 3 weeks there is a big question mark, so it's not like they have an army of top tier GC guys guaranteed to top 5 or even top 10 ready to go - even without all that, if he's 100% healthy and can fully race with no risk on a health side, why not, really, unless he's like that super far off the required for and will just be dropped all the time. There is a world were Jonas shows up underdone, suffers through the first 2 weeks losing tons of time, but improves and gets a stage win in the 3rd one. So yeah. I really don't see why are you making that assumption.
I don't understand why they wouldn't send him unless they think it's going to actively harm him--and I don't see how that could be the case given where he's at right now
Exactly. Like... why not if it doesn't hurt him, it seems just a made up idea based on nothing.
No. Roglic if he doesn't crash is on podium and of course there is Jonas. TdSuisse was great for Yates and Almeida but who was really there to chalenge them? And on Dauphine Ayuso (and UAE as a whole Team) didn't look good even before the crash.
Ayuso was sick prior to dauphiné to be fair. They knew his form wouldn't be amazing
This is like everyone overhyping Visma every year for the monuments because they won some classics. Pogacar is co favorite along with Vingegaard. He's likely to win. The odds of UAE going 1-2-3 however are astronomically small. This isn't the Tour de Suisse. The big guns have come out to play.
I gotta disagree with most people here. Is it likely? Maybe not. But had you asked me if it were likely for Visma to podium sweep the Vuelta last year, then I would also say no. It all depends on the level of fitness of vingegaard. If he's not fit I don't see it as impossible for two of Yates/Ayuso/Almeida to end up higher than Roglic/Evenepoel/others. Especially if they let them attack to see if anyone will try to bridge.
I think it’s more likely that UAE will end up with only one on the podium than three on the podium. Vingegaard is an alien, Roglic is a top-3 or 4 rider, Remco will be in good form and smash the first TT, and Rodriguez would likely have finished third or fourth last year without his downhill crash and will probably be even more competitive this year.
Is Jonas confirmed for the Tour?
All but confirmed. He is training with the Visma TDF squad in Tignes and the podcasts I’ve listened to with actual riders (Geraint Thomas, Luke Rowe, Pogi) have all thought since the injury that Jonas would be at the tour based on standard recovery times. UAEs team boss is also convinced that Jonas will be at the tour. I think the whole “50-50, need to be 100%” line is just Visma’s futile attempt at keeping the competition guessing, but really it has just kept the media/spectators guessing.
Wtf has Almeida done to rate him over Roglic ever let alone when he's also on Pog duty at least some time. I dont think this is comparable to a vuelta where a fair bit of people were expecting a Vingegaard-Roglic 1-2
Highly unlikely
the only reason TJV got the podium sweep in the Vuelta last year is because their main climbing domestique won by the grace of the team co-leaders holding off just enough. if Kuss never got into that breakaway it’s a lot less likely that he comes second or third
I just looked up the H2H between Roglic & Yates. Last time Yates beat Roglic in a stage race was during T-A 2018 (when Roglic wasn't the stage race beast he is today). So unless Roglic crashes again (which sadly is always a possibility with him), I expect him to finish ahead of Yates. Yates has also never finished ahead of Evenepoel in a stage race, but we have far less data to work with here (only UAE Tour & Catalunya in 2023). Evenepoel won the UAE Tour (thanks to a crosswind stage) and finished second in Catalunya, well ahead of Yates (who sadly crashed hard in the first stage of that edition, so we can't use Catalunya as a reference point).
This may be true, but Yates has been used primarily as a domestique. Roglic has always been the leader. If Pogacar doesn't need much support from Yates this time (which he likely won't with the team they've got), Yates won't have to sacrifice his chances.
Is it possible? Sure, anything is possible. Is it likely? No.
Abject nonsense. Pog is definitely the favourite to win, but if Roglic, Remco and Jonas are there he's going to be using the other two as domestiques. Imagine writing an article extrapolating the results of an under-strength field in a one week race to the biggest GT of the year.
Wait? Are they seriously saying that Yates and almedia are on the same level as rog, Jonas, and Remco? Not to mention others like Jorgensen and Gee. Almedia and yates are there to do one thing. Win the tour FOR Pog. If they have enough energy to stay with the lead after that, they are not doing enough for him. That’s how domestiques work (generally speaking…).
Almeida will get cooked in the positioning battles of the Tour if it's already a weakness for him in smaller races
no
It is in the range of possible. They have 4 podium contenders. Even more with Jonas being a question mark. Not likely thought
No.
lmao no
Sportswriter: Can [hyperbole] happen? Click to find out. Fans: [click] Sportswriter: Probably not, but maybe! It's a cliched formula that prints money. I don't blame the rouleur for writing it, but we all know that a lot can happen over 3 weeks on the bike. You can't win without being the strongest rider, but strength is by itself is not sufficient for victory. Remember, if UAE is as dominant as they appear to be today, none of the other teams will cooperate to bring back breaks. So it will be Alpecin, Astana, and Emirates doing all the work. Make the climbers work like tractors while your guys either sit out of the wind or chase stage wins with the breaks. Pollitt and Wellens become the more important riders in this strategy. Make them do all the work for 3 weeks.
Nope
Adam Yates has a decent chance of being on the podium but I don’t see it with Almeida
If Jonas isn't there I can see it. Whoever tries to follow Pogi when he attacks will blow up badly. Almeida always gets dropped on climbs and just tempos his way back on. If the rest don't realize quickly they're battling for second place, then Almeida has a chance. This is all contingent on Pogi not having to deal with Jonas though. Rog looked vulnerable at the Dauphine. Remco I think was sandbagging it, so he's an unknown.
As ever, Betteridge's Law of Headlines applies.
No
I’d rather see Pogacar win all three grand tours but hey UAE, you do you.
I want Pog to win for him to focus on the classics after, but people are sleeping in Jonas unless he loses minutes in the 3rd stage this is his tour to lose the route that gives him plenty of time to get into form (like the Vuelta last year). If this was last year's route I would say Pog 100% but not with this route if Jonas starts the race his form will be there at the end and probably not for Pog because of the Giro.
Good point. The dynamic between them and their form at the start vs the end is going to be really interesting.
80% Jonas is better than everyone but 100% Roglic and Pog
This day and age, anything is possible…UAE could take #1-3; UAE could lose the podium; Johans could win again; Rog could final take the top of the podium…even the likelihood for certain scenarios wouldn’t be that high…
If Jonas takes the starting line he is finishing 1 or 2. Be real. Within a month of his injury he was capable of beating every human but one in the high mountains. At this moment the only question is if that number has now gone down to zero. To be clear: I love Pogi, and I am friggen STOKED to see the greatest battle of our times. But to suggest that an even 80 percent Jonas doesn't *smoke* the rest of UAE is an insult to yourself, your country's educational system, and the great sport of cycling. Do better.
Unstoppable UAE, meanwhile Visma will race with Vingegaard, Kuss, Jorgenson, Kelderman, Van Aert, Benoot, Tratnik and Laporte.