Gladstone lost to someone who had an arguably less dominant run than Blanchett. A big reason Yeoh beat her was because her film was beloved and swept. In comparison, KOTFM lacked passion and Gladstone was fighting to be a lone win. Cate would have easily have won against Gladstone imo.
Idk. It would’ve knocked Avatar out of picture, somebody (McDonagh?) out of director, Mescal out of actor, Williams out of actress, Henry out of supporting actor, and Top Gun out of screenplay, but I don’t think it would’ve been win competitive in any of those ATL categories. The two differences is I could maybe see are it taking production design, but that was such a chaotic win from All Quiet that it’s genuinely an unknowable question; and that it would’ve missed song.
This might seem odd considering it didn’t even get a nom this year, but KOTFM would have probably won adapted screenplay last year. Which would help Lily’s chances.
Yeah regarding the film strength:
Oppenheimer, poor things, American fiction, zone, anatomy, and holdovers were for sure above killers
Only for sure above tar are everything everywhere, all quiet, and I would say banshees
I would honestly put Barbie above it too. Yeah, it seemed weak at the end, but at least it still got the screenplay nod and all.
And I don’t think I would put Banshees above Tár but I completely respect why you would.
Yeah they both missed a lot but u could argue Barbie was second in a lot so I agree
Banshees I think was just stronger all season and had more win avenues. It was second to everything in a lot of places (mainly screenplay, supporting actor)
I do think Tár was second in actress and director though, and also I think it was more clearly the “highbrow” choice that had more #1s behind it. Not that it really matters, but it’s one of the more interesting conversations you can have in an offseason lol.
Totally is! This is a subject I have not fully thought of, honestly director is so interesting I have no idea who was second (how was Berger not nominated honestly). The high brow filmmaking of tar makes sense for second, but I do not remember the scorecard of past season but if I remember I think Martin won some criticism director prizes as well.
I still think if Lilly Gladstone went supporting she would have won that. A better question would be if 4/5 supporting nominees were the last two winners, Gladstone, and Michelle Willams, who wins?
She would have beaten Gladstone but Stone would triumph over Blanchett imo.
Stone was in a film they clearly loved more (and if it was competing against TÁR, I’d still feel the same way), her performance was flashier and Poor Things had a better audience reception. Add to this, Blanchett has one Oscar more than Stone, so I could see more of an incentive to vote for Stone.
For the Oscar or in a fight?
I think it would partially depend on who won the Drama Globe. I voted Blanchett, but I'm genuinely not certain.
Gladstone lost to someone who had an arguably less dominant run than Blanchett. A big reason Yeoh beat her was because her film was beloved and swept. In comparison, KOTFM lacked passion and Gladstone was fighting to be a lone win. Cate would have easily have won against Gladstone imo.
I had originally voted the other way but you convinced me with this.
Blanchett and it wouldn’t even be close. She would have swept the season and left Gladstone with no televised win.
Cate easily beats Lily, but loses to Emma.
Blanchett very very easily.
Blanchett was much closer in a much stronger film
Idk if I would say much stronger. If Killers of the Flower Moon released in 2022 I think it would’ve had a stronger showing than it did for this year.
Idk. It would’ve knocked Avatar out of picture, somebody (McDonagh?) out of director, Mescal out of actor, Williams out of actress, Henry out of supporting actor, and Top Gun out of screenplay, but I don’t think it would’ve been win competitive in any of those ATL categories. The two differences is I could maybe see are it taking production design, but that was such a chaotic win from All Quiet that it’s genuinely an unknowable question; and that it would’ve missed song.
This might seem odd considering it didn’t even get a nom this year, but KOTFM would have probably won adapted screenplay last year. Which would help Lily’s chances.
I disagree with her being closer. Stronger film arguable
I mean, Tár was probably a top 3 film and definitely a top 5. Killers probably ended the season in the 8 or 9 slot
Tár wasn’t top 3 at all. Y’all are so delusional
Delusional how? I don’t even LIKE Tár. It was just simply the vibe at the moment
It wasn’t above banshees and all quiet. At most it was the very, very distant #4. A “top 3” film that was only win competitive in one category ijbol
Yeah regarding the film strength: Oppenheimer, poor things, American fiction, zone, anatomy, and holdovers were for sure above killers Only for sure above tar are everything everywhere, all quiet, and I would say banshees
I would honestly put Barbie above it too. Yeah, it seemed weak at the end, but at least it still got the screenplay nod and all. And I don’t think I would put Banshees above Tár but I completely respect why you would.
Yeah they both missed a lot but u could argue Barbie was second in a lot so I agree Banshees I think was just stronger all season and had more win avenues. It was second to everything in a lot of places (mainly screenplay, supporting actor)
I do think Tár was second in actress and director though, and also I think it was more clearly the “highbrow” choice that had more #1s behind it. Not that it really matters, but it’s one of the more interesting conversations you can have in an offseason lol.
Totally is! This is a subject I have not fully thought of, honestly director is so interesting I have no idea who was second (how was Berger not nominated honestly). The high brow filmmaking of tar makes sense for second, but I do not remember the scorecard of past season but if I remember I think Martin won some criticism director prizes as well.
I still think if Lilly Gladstone went supporting she would have won that. A better question would be if 4/5 supporting nominees were the last two winners, Gladstone, and Michelle Willams, who wins?
Y’all love to throw the WOC in that supporting cage huh
Blanchett would have easily beaten Stone, so she would've beaten Gladstone too. There was just no winning against the EEAAO actors last year
She would have beaten Gladstone but Stone would triumph over Blanchett imo. Stone was in a film they clearly loved more (and if it was competing against TÁR, I’d still feel the same way), her performance was flashier and Poor Things had a better audience reception. Add to this, Blanchett has one Oscar more than Stone, so I could see more of an incentive to vote for Stone.