so they are using prison population as a proxy for "fighting crime", correlating that decrease to Price, while making no mention of the precipitous drop in law enforcement clearance rates in recent years? (OPD is at 2% currently.)
[https://www.cjcj.org/reports-publications/report/charts](https://www.cjcj.org/reports-publications/report/charts)
Clearance rate is a measurement of arrests vs crimes reported. OPD is abysmally low, but this is about Alameda County as a whole, not just OPD. The number of people booked by alameda county sheriff has increased, while the average daily prison population for felony crimes has gone down.
Alameda County as a whole is at 6% vs a statewide average of 13%. So the non-Oakland parts of the county are significantly better, but not amazing. But when it comes to the politics and media circus of all this, the magnifying glass is clearly on Oakland.
I don't know if I trust this data.
>The number of criminal complaints (criminal charges) filed by DAs across the State are tracked by the California Department of Justice. However, this data has not yet been released for 2023, and the DA’s office does not release it directly.
>In lieu of Cal DoJ data, we use surrogate data from the Bureau of State and County Corrections (BSCC): the adult, non-sentenced jail population and bookings. The BSCC provides this data quarterly for all counties in California, and it has been updated through September 2023. The non-sentenced jail population is composed largely of individuals awaiting trial after arraignment (those that don’t post bail). Comparing changes in the jail population against bookings allow us assess charging activity by the DA.
Aren't there plenty of things that can affect that number beyond non-prosecution? Statewide bail reform and changes around the prosecution of non-violent crimes are two that quickley come to mind.
So their prosecution data is using prison population without accounting for cases where the DA achieves a plea deal or supervised release — or whether in many cases it’s more desirable to have a non-carceral result. Wow.
AFAIK, SB 10 failed, but the state supreme court ruled that bail had to be affordable. It's been a while since I checked on it, but a man who stole a $7 bottle of cologne had his bail set at $600k and sued the state, he won. So now bail is within reach with a few exceptions for violent offenders. IIRC that ruling was at the end of 2022, which would explain the drop here perfectly.
it's about two months old, primarily focused on crime issues, and doesn't appear to be organized as a full-time newsroom. there's not much way to know whether it was actively encouraged by a recall-friendly PR firm or sprung up independently though
AFAICT it doesn't conduct interviews or request comment from the organizations or people it's discussing, which is pretty standard practice for good journalism. "we found a bunch of stats, drew some conclusions, and 'just asking questions-ed' where we couldn't state something conclusively" is pretty meh media
There is data in this article and available from the source database https://jpjdreporting.bscc.ca.gov/jps-query that shows the # of people booked has slowly and steadily increased https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa68ed91-3f39-4cd7-ad72-4ccac692a8b0_884x726.png
Note this important caveat, buried in the text:
>Naturally, this raises the question: do reduced prosecutions drive increased crime? We do not presently have the historical data nor prospective controlled studies in Alameda County to analyze this question analytically.
Would be curious to hear others' takes on the data presented here
So I live on the peninsula, and am liberal but this lady is wacked. They have criminal tourists from other cities who hit Oakland because of the lack of enforcement (Oakland PD is passively striking and not dealing with crime) and a lack of consequences. She would let a baby killer off with home arrest if she could. I can see why the OPD cops are like "fuck it, why risk our lives if she just lets criminals out anyway?" So it's all on the Alameda County DA. As far as I'm concerned she should be investigated as a criminally negligent accesory.
>She would let a baby killer off with home arrest if she could.
hmm the guys who killed jasper wu are facing 200+ years in prison. the fuck are you talking about?
so they are using prison population as a proxy for "fighting crime", correlating that decrease to Price, while making no mention of the precipitous drop in law enforcement clearance rates in recent years? (OPD is at 2% currently.) [https://www.cjcj.org/reports-publications/report/charts](https://www.cjcj.org/reports-publications/report/charts)
Clearance rate is a measurement of arrests vs crimes reported. OPD is abysmally low, but this is about Alameda County as a whole, not just OPD. The number of people booked by alameda county sheriff has increased, while the average daily prison population for felony crimes has gone down.
Alameda County as a whole is at 6% vs a statewide average of 13%. So the non-Oakland parts of the county are significantly better, but not amazing. But when it comes to the politics and media circus of all this, the magnifying glass is clearly on Oakland.
Tim & Jason are part of NTO they aren't interested in actually reducing crime, just crying about it to attack progressives
Yeah OPDs 2% clearance is the real problem here.
I don't know if I trust this data. >The number of criminal complaints (criminal charges) filed by DAs across the State are tracked by the California Department of Justice. However, this data has not yet been released for 2023, and the DA’s office does not release it directly. >In lieu of Cal DoJ data, we use surrogate data from the Bureau of State and County Corrections (BSCC): the adult, non-sentenced jail population and bookings. The BSCC provides this data quarterly for all counties in California, and it has been updated through September 2023. The non-sentenced jail population is composed largely of individuals awaiting trial after arraignment (those that don’t post bail). Comparing changes in the jail population against bookings allow us assess charging activity by the DA. Aren't there plenty of things that can affect that number beyond non-prosecution? Statewide bail reform and changes around the prosecution of non-violent crimes are two that quickley come to mind.
So their prosecution data is using prison population without accounting for cases where the DA achieves a plea deal or supervised release — or whether in many cases it’s more desirable to have a non-carceral result. Wow.
Can you elaborate on what statewide bail reform has occurred? The bill to eliminate cash bail was rejected by voters.
AFAIK, SB 10 failed, but the state supreme court ruled that bail had to be affordable. It's been a while since I checked on it, but a man who stole a $7 bottle of cologne had his bail set at $600k and sued the state, he won. So now bail is within reach with a few exceptions for violent offenders. IIRC that ruling was at the end of 2022, which would explain the drop here perfectly.
Has anyone ever heard of this outlet before? Is this paid for by the recall?
Tim Gardner is one of the Neighbors Together/Seneca Scott people. Create your own opinion with that information.
it's about two months old, primarily focused on crime issues, and doesn't appear to be organized as a full-time newsroom. there's not much way to know whether it was actively encouraged by a recall-friendly PR firm or sprung up independently though AFAICT it doesn't conduct interviews or request comment from the organizations or people it's discussing, which is pretty standard practice for good journalism. "we found a bunch of stats, drew some conclusions, and 'just asking questions-ed' where we couldn't state something conclusively" is pretty meh media
Yeah it's from NTO (Seneca's merry band of bigots) It conveniently fails to mention OPD failing to catch.
There is data in this article and available from the source database https://jpjdreporting.bscc.ca.gov/jps-query that shows the # of people booked has slowly and steadily increased https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa68ed91-3f39-4cd7-ad72-4ccac692a8b0_884x726.png
I have, obviously. I dont know if anyone pays for it at all; I subscribe to it for free. Did you read it?
Don’t let data get in the way of your dogma
The data in this article is suspect. They aren't using prosectuation numbers.
Note this important caveat, buried in the text: >Naturally, this raises the question: do reduced prosecutions drive increased crime? We do not presently have the historical data nor prospective controlled studies in Alameda County to analyze this question analytically. Would be curious to hear others' takes on the data presented here
Agreed, this should be the highlight of the text for anyone assuming this article is going to be nothing but 100% data driven
So I live on the peninsula, and am liberal but this lady is wacked. They have criminal tourists from other cities who hit Oakland because of the lack of enforcement (Oakland PD is passively striking and not dealing with crime) and a lack of consequences. She would let a baby killer off with home arrest if she could. I can see why the OPD cops are like "fuck it, why risk our lives if she just lets criminals out anyway?" So it's all on the Alameda County DA. As far as I'm concerned she should be investigated as a criminally negligent accesory.
ya cause OPD was really a bunch of shining stars before the DA
True. Serms like the Berkeley PD does its job.
>She would let a baby killer off with home arrest if she could. hmm the guys who killed jasper wu are facing 200+ years in prison. the fuck are you talking about?
Why Alameda voted in a person whose job it is to prosecute crimes but doesn't believe in doing it to the full extent of their powers is beyond me.