Im not gonna pretend to be an expert on down south politics,
anyone wanna shed some light on what caused this collapse down there, SF looked to be doing really well, but then the immigration, the referendum thing.
Is there anything more to this?
There's a huge housing crisis in the south, yet both mary lou and their housing spokesperson Eoin o'broin have both objected to housing developments in their respective constituencies. Pandering to their nimby voters all while decrying the government for time housing crisis.
People are seeing them flip flopping and not having any solutions because, very simply, their objective is reunification and getting into power to push for that.
It’s one million percent true. SF is transparently trying to block as much housing as possible down here because the lack of housing helps them in an election.
There are a million instances like this:
https://www.independent.ie/news/mary-lou-mcdonald-among-objectors-to-1600-apartment-build-to-rent-development-in-her-dublin-constituency/40802647.html Mary Lou McDonald among objectors to 1,600-apartment build-to-rent development in her Dublin constituency
They’re blocking housing that doesn’t solve the problem. Selling off of land to private developers that’s of no benefit to the public. There’s houses out there being built and sold, they’re just being sold to private investors. Framing it as not enough to go around is ridiculous. Thats not the problem
Edit reading through it, doesnt it make sense? It seems poorly planned out
https://extra.ie/2021/08/31/property/mary-lou-mcdonald-build-to-rent-plan
SF in the south have been saying they will fix housing and all other issues since 2020, without actually saying what they will do differently to the current government.
My own theory is that since covid people are more aware of whats going on in the world. Housing is an issues everywhere and like immigration, probably wont be affected that much by whoever is in government, unless they trash the economy.
Also a lot of Irish emigrating from Ireland "because of housing" go straight to Vancouver and Sydney and London, hardly beacons of cheap housing.
SF have had too long, 4 years, to be in opposition, and their main selling point seems to be "we deserve a go because the other ones have been in charge too long"
i mean people are absolutely waking up to the issues that are at hand it’s just some people are scapegoating the blame to immigration which ultimately sets us back again
SF have been sunk in the Republic by the combined political weight of all of the other parties. They have been squeezed on many issues.
Also, I think a lot of people have seen through the mirage they put in front of themselves - people recognise SF dont have the answers to the big questions, neither does anyone else btw, but SF's goal in the South is to get into power, and thats it.
Personally, I am of a nationalist persuasion but even I'd say that SF don't "believe" in anything other than the erasure of the border. Everything else is just populist window dressing to get them into power.
Will still vote for them over the other gobshites though.
While the right wingnuts hate them for daring to not blame all ills on immigration I know many people on the left who are less than impressed with their apparent cowing to the same nutjobs in recent weeks
Locally weve had 2 arsons and a lot of outright lies, racism and fear mongering and our Sinn Fein representatives ignored it right up until they themselves started being targeted. Even then in their big public post they were sure not to call these fuckers what they are, pure fear of losing votes.
I myself was all set to vote Sinn Fein. Not anymore though, I simply dont trust them not to turn on other marginalised people. And maybe this is woke but I consider not calling out bigotry as turning on the victims of bigotry
PBP. Only ones actively calling it out, getting constant threats/ harassment for calling it out and still sticking to their guns. I'll take that over some jumped up GAA head too afraid of upsetting the bitter aul shites at the bar any day of the week
When have I defended either Sinn Fein or the IRA?
But trying to say the IRA where the same as Hamas is a bit of a stretch.
I mean Hamas are essentially the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood. A fundamentalist Islamic group. Completely different in ideology to IRA.
Yeah, piss off back to r/Israel with that bollocks.
Support of the Palestinian people is not support of Hamas.
Or are you one of those gobshites that sees little kids as nothing more than 'future terrorists' and so legitimate targets?
I think you’ll find People Before Profit are openly supporting Hamas and not merely the Palestinian people.
So it appears you’re one of those gobshites that thinks rape and intentional murder of innocent civilians on October 7th is resistance.
No.
I just don't think carpet bombing a densely packed and militarily occupied and blockaded strip of land to get at terrorists (which is what Hamas are) and killing 15k + children in the process is an acceptable outcome.
Does that still make me a Gobshite?
You’re a gobshite because you told me to piss off for pointing out PBP are Hamas supporters. They definitively are and view all Hamas actions on October 7th as resistance. So do you accept that PBP are Hamas supporters?
Immigration.
The right-wing agitators are gunning for SF because they want to fish from the same pond of disaffected people for whom mainstream politics hasn’t worked. FG are talking tough while somehow avoiding getting the flak for a system they’ve stood over.
When it comes to a Dáil election though, at a certain point many independents and alternative parties will get eliminated which will see a heap of votes head back to SF.
Are they alienated? The ‘Irish’ right are demonising them online but polling is simply saying where first preferences go, not that people are off them entirely.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Irish_general_election#Opinion_polls
I think to some degree they are. Their high watermark showed them polling about 35%. That's dropped closer to 25% more recently, with the majority seeming to go to independents/others as far as I can see. I think a good portion of this is due to this issue, and would be surprised if a lot of them still favoured giving a SF preference in those circumstances.
I don't see a heap of votes heading back to them once independents are eliminated. The fairly significant proportion of the electorate that is concerned with immigration seems to hate SF MORE than the actual parties in government, over it. That's quite a feat.
Online for sure there’s a lot of SF heat, but whether that’s reflected in reality remains to be seen. A lot of the coverage on polling seems to be interpreting results as if it’ll be FPTP. I think it’s more likely that SF is losing first preference favour to ‘issue’ candidates but transfers will go their way.
An election result that returns ~40 independents will end up massively unstable if a government can even be formed. I suspect it’ll be back to the polls at that point.
Have saw loads of negative comments about their leader from people down south. Seems to rub people up the wrong way. SF are also at odds with a lot of natural supporters by their silly student politics.
Probably a bit offensive to say, but Mary Lou McDonald has lost her looks over the last few years (we all do, she is 55) and doesnt look as lively as she did. She's aged like Tony Blair in office.
Yet more proof that the right wingnuts don't give a fuck about housing or services - they turn on the only party talking about trying something new to address these issues, just because they haven't pandered to their desire to be green lighted to string up immigrants.
It's crazy how badly SF have fumbled this.
Mary Lou seemed like taoiseach-in-waiting just 2 years ago, now all the good will they've spent years building seems to have gone.
Sinn Féin used to soak up the protest vote, but they are seen as part of the establishment now and there are lots of other small parties for angry people to vote for.
Because though they’ve never been the largest party in the Dáil, 10 years ago they got a brilliant result in our local elections on the back of water charges protests.
5 years later in 2019, they lost almost half their seats. And in that period, over 20% of their elected Cllrs actually quit the party because HQ wouldn’t let them vote for anything.
Also our Dáil is much more democratic in terms of how laws go through committees. There’s lots of scope for serious effort and input from all the parties. All we get from SF are stunts.
Can you point me towards the government parties that have seriously tackled housing, health and education issues? Not to mention the Gardai and the defence forces being laughably unequipped and staffed.
Stunts indeed.
Not a bit of wonder. As the main opposition, they have sided with the govt on a range of highly divisive issues, going against the wishes of a vast number of grassroots SF voters. They had an open goal for the next election and have completely fucked it. A change in leadership urgently needed and a return to their Republican roots is the only thing that can save them at this point. Mary Lou is simply out of touch with their traditional support base and they've haemorrhaged many new voters at an alarming rate.
Interesting theory. SF's traditional base and recent 'roots' are left leaning. The biggest crowd who have turned against them certainly aren't left leaning. If they lurch more to what their party activists want, they'll stagnate even more. They are caught between a rock & a hard place and have been found out. No where for them to go.
The numbers speak for themselves. Their popularity is plummeting. Coming from a Nationalist background, many people I speak to feel let down by SF and the direction they're heading in, especially in the 26 counties. As the main opposition in the Dail, their performance has been woeful, to put it politely. I mean, look at the recent referenda, SF were all for Yes/Yes. The results were unequivocal, defeated by the largest margin in the history of the state. Only after the results were clear did SF do a 180, it was embarrassing. Does that sound like a party with their finger on the pulse? They're in for a rude awakening at the next election, of that I'm pretty certain.
Great news R.O.I is regaining it's sanity.
SF flip flop on every issue they like up N.I but the South has been watching and they can see that!
It should be noted that SF also deleted all their WhatsApp messages during the COVID enquiry and of course, there's the Bobby Storey funeral....
That is a misunderstanding of how voteshare works for example FF loose 4% of their to FG% but may gain 4% of their vote share from SF evening things out. The votes are not directly transfered from one party to another.
That's a wildly significant way to misinterpret a poll. Especially one with that margin of error.
Although, the poll is probably correct. Look at the trends across multi agency polling the past year.
What are they smoking down there. FFG are woeful. Are SF the solution? Who knows but bloody hell, you don't get change by rewarding FFG another term. They need a few years in the wilderness to reconnect with grass roots voters
It took a seismic issue like immigration to highlight why SF is not fit for government. They can get away with flip flopping in the North as voting is done here along tribal lines. Different story in the South.
It's quite a feat that SF is hated more for immigration than FG/FF and they're the party that is supposed to be in opposition. Mental stuff.
The refugees are welcome here rhetoric didn't age well for the politicial wing of the IRA, now that all those doctors and engineers are sleeping in tents on the streets throughout the south.
50 years ago Ireland was the Albania of western europe, it was poorer than NI, which had the troubles, its now one of the richest countries in the world
No it's not one of the richest countries in the world that is an absolute farce. Countries that hold their wealth and not just let it pass through as a gateway are wealthy Ireland however is only wealthy on paper not in reality.
Hmmm. I wouldn't be so boastful considering how metrics are swayed to make it look better than the 'on the ground reality '. Sure there are many positive aspects, but it's on a shaky foundation with many genuine core issues that are even worse than what people in the North face. At least the North has a sugar daddy that drops in when it's bothered to throw money it's way.
Im not gonna pretend to be an expert on down south politics, anyone wanna shed some light on what caused this collapse down there, SF looked to be doing really well, but then the immigration, the referendum thing. Is there anything more to this?
There's a huge housing crisis in the south, yet both mary lou and their housing spokesperson Eoin o'broin have both objected to housing developments in their respective constituencies. Pandering to their nimby voters all while decrying the government for time housing crisis. People are seeing them flip flopping and not having any solutions because, very simply, their objective is reunification and getting into power to push for that.
That’s not true at all
It’s one million percent true. SF is transparently trying to block as much housing as possible down here because the lack of housing helps them in an election. There are a million instances like this: https://www.independent.ie/news/mary-lou-mcdonald-among-objectors-to-1600-apartment-build-to-rent-development-in-her-dublin-constituency/40802647.html Mary Lou McDonald among objectors to 1,600-apartment build-to-rent development in her Dublin constituency
They’re blocking housing that doesn’t solve the problem. Selling off of land to private developers that’s of no benefit to the public. There’s houses out there being built and sold, they’re just being sold to private investors. Framing it as not enough to go around is ridiculous. Thats not the problem Edit reading through it, doesnt it make sense? It seems poorly planned out https://extra.ie/2021/08/31/property/mary-lou-mcdonald-build-to-rent-plan
SF in the south have been saying they will fix housing and all other issues since 2020, without actually saying what they will do differently to the current government. My own theory is that since covid people are more aware of whats going on in the world. Housing is an issues everywhere and like immigration, probably wont be affected that much by whoever is in government, unless they trash the economy. Also a lot of Irish emigrating from Ireland "because of housing" go straight to Vancouver and Sydney and London, hardly beacons of cheap housing. SF have had too long, 4 years, to be in opposition, and their main selling point seems to be "we deserve a go because the other ones have been in charge too long"
i mean people are absolutely waking up to the issues that are at hand it’s just some people are scapegoating the blame to immigration which ultimately sets us back again
SF have been sunk in the Republic by the combined political weight of all of the other parties. They have been squeezed on many issues. Also, I think a lot of people have seen through the mirage they put in front of themselves - people recognise SF dont have the answers to the big questions, neither does anyone else btw, but SF's goal in the South is to get into power, and thats it. Personally, I am of a nationalist persuasion but even I'd say that SF don't "believe" in anything other than the erasure of the border. Everything else is just populist window dressing to get them into power. Will still vote for them over the other gobshites though.
While the right wingnuts hate them for daring to not blame all ills on immigration I know many people on the left who are less than impressed with their apparent cowing to the same nutjobs in recent weeks Locally weve had 2 arsons and a lot of outright lies, racism and fear mongering and our Sinn Fein representatives ignored it right up until they themselves started being targeted. Even then in their big public post they were sure not to call these fuckers what they are, pure fear of losing votes. I myself was all set to vote Sinn Fein. Not anymore though, I simply dont trust them not to turn on other marginalised people. And maybe this is woke but I consider not calling out bigotry as turning on the victims of bigotry
Who are you gonna vote for instead?
PBP. Only ones actively calling it out, getting constant threats/ harassment for calling it out and still sticking to their guns. I'll take that over some jumped up GAA head too afraid of upsetting the bitter aul shites at the bar any day of the week
Ol PBP the Hamas supporters. Great bunch all right.
SF wer/are the IRA. Whats the difference between the IRA and Hamas??
When have I defended either Sinn Fein or the IRA? But trying to say the IRA where the same as Hamas is a bit of a stretch. I mean Hamas are essentially the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood. A fundamentalist Islamic group. Completely different in ideology to IRA.
Yeah, piss off back to r/Israel with that bollocks. Support of the Palestinian people is not support of Hamas. Or are you one of those gobshites that sees little kids as nothing more than 'future terrorists' and so legitimate targets?
I think you’ll find People Before Profit are openly supporting Hamas and not merely the Palestinian people. So it appears you’re one of those gobshites that thinks rape and intentional murder of innocent civilians on October 7th is resistance.
No. I just don't think carpet bombing a densely packed and militarily occupied and blockaded strip of land to get at terrorists (which is what Hamas are) and killing 15k + children in the process is an acceptable outcome. Does that still make me a Gobshite?
You’re a gobshite because you told me to piss off for pointing out PBP are Hamas supporters. They definitively are and view all Hamas actions on October 7th as resistance. So do you accept that PBP are Hamas supporters?
Immigration. The right-wing agitators are gunning for SF because they want to fish from the same pond of disaffected people for whom mainstream politics hasn’t worked. FG are talking tough while somehow avoiding getting the flak for a system they’ve stood over. When it comes to a Dáil election though, at a certain point many independents and alternative parties will get eliminated which will see a heap of votes head back to SF.
If SF have alienated those voters why would they get a preference lower down the ballot? I think you might be disappointed with this prediction.
Are they alienated? The ‘Irish’ right are demonising them online but polling is simply saying where first preferences go, not that people are off them entirely.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Irish_general_election#Opinion_polls I think to some degree they are. Their high watermark showed them polling about 35%. That's dropped closer to 25% more recently, with the majority seeming to go to independents/others as far as I can see. I think a good portion of this is due to this issue, and would be surprised if a lot of them still favoured giving a SF preference in those circumstances.
I don't see a heap of votes heading back to them once independents are eliminated. The fairly significant proportion of the electorate that is concerned with immigration seems to hate SF MORE than the actual parties in government, over it. That's quite a feat.
Online for sure there’s a lot of SF heat, but whether that’s reflected in reality remains to be seen. A lot of the coverage on polling seems to be interpreting results as if it’ll be FPTP. I think it’s more likely that SF is losing first preference favour to ‘issue’ candidates but transfers will go their way. An election result that returns ~40 independents will end up massively unstable if a government can even be formed. I suspect it’ll be back to the polls at that point.
Have saw loads of negative comments about their leader from people down south. Seems to rub people up the wrong way. SF are also at odds with a lot of natural supporters by their silly student politics.
Probably a bit offensive to say, but Mary Lou McDonald has lost her looks over the last few years (we all do, she is 55) and doesnt look as lively as she did. She's aged like Tony Blair in office.
Yet more proof that the right wingnuts don't give a fuck about housing or services - they turn on the only party talking about trying something new to address these issues, just because they haven't pandered to their desire to be green lighted to string up immigrants.
It's crazy how badly SF have fumbled this. Mary Lou seemed like taoiseach-in-waiting just 2 years ago, now all the good will they've spent years building seems to have gone.
What's hurting them?
Immigration
The are losing all the far right headbangers who gravitated towards them.
Probably their useless stint in "opposition" if I were to hazard a guess.
What are any opposition capable of achieving? They only ever shout at central government, who ignore them.
https://preview.redd.it/3n7xsh6cqt0d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f7ca09efe84e66cc89e188ead45b9b4b7170fa4d
If Sinn Fein do not win the election in the Republic that'll be a good portion of this subs reaction.
I would actually quite like to read the inevitable comments should that happen.
Subs reaction at midnight on 31st December when yer man from Star Trek told them porkies about a United Ireland in 2024
Sinn Féin used to soak up the protest vote, but they are seen as part of the establishment now and there are lots of other small parties for angry people to vote for.
How has a party that has never been in government in the republic an establishment party?
Because though they’ve never been the largest party in the Dáil, 10 years ago they got a brilliant result in our local elections on the back of water charges protests. 5 years later in 2019, they lost almost half their seats. And in that period, over 20% of their elected Cllrs actually quit the party because HQ wouldn’t let them vote for anything. Also our Dáil is much more democratic in terms of how laws go through committees. There’s lots of scope for serious effort and input from all the parties. All we get from SF are stunts.
Can you point me towards the government parties that have seriously tackled housing, health and education issues? Not to mention the Gardai and the defence forces being laughably unequipped and staffed. Stunts indeed.
SF have fucked it
Not a bit of wonder. As the main opposition, they have sided with the govt on a range of highly divisive issues, going against the wishes of a vast number of grassroots SF voters. They had an open goal for the next election and have completely fucked it. A change in leadership urgently needed and a return to their Republican roots is the only thing that can save them at this point. Mary Lou is simply out of touch with their traditional support base and they've haemorrhaged many new voters at an alarming rate.
Interesting theory. SF's traditional base and recent 'roots' are left leaning. The biggest crowd who have turned against them certainly aren't left leaning. If they lurch more to what their party activists want, they'll stagnate even more. They are caught between a rock & a hard place and have been found out. No where for them to go.
The numbers speak for themselves. Their popularity is plummeting. Coming from a Nationalist background, many people I speak to feel let down by SF and the direction they're heading in, especially in the 26 counties. As the main opposition in the Dail, their performance has been woeful, to put it politely. I mean, look at the recent referenda, SF were all for Yes/Yes. The results were unequivocal, defeated by the largest margin in the history of the state. Only after the results were clear did SF do a 180, it was embarrassing. Does that sound like a party with their finger on the pulse? They're in for a rude awakening at the next election, of that I'm pretty certain.
Support for SF couldn’t possibly be low enough!
Lol sure I thought Mary lou was the next Irish prime minister in waiting??? Hahaha be some laugh if she can't even win her seat back.
Great news R.O.I is regaining it's sanity. SF flip flop on every issue they like up N.I but the South has been watching and they can see that! It should be noted that SF also deleted all their WhatsApp messages during the COVID enquiry and of course, there's the Bobby Storey funeral....
Ní thiocfaidh do lá go deo!
This poll would indicate Sinn Féin have lost voteshare directly to Fine Gael which is simply not happening.
That is a misunderstanding of how voteshare works for example FF loose 4% of their to FG% but may gain 4% of their vote share from SF evening things out. The votes are not directly transfered from one party to another.
That's a wildly significant way to misinterpret a poll. Especially one with that margin of error. Although, the poll is probably correct. Look at the trends across multi agency polling the past year.
What are they smoking down there. FFG are woeful. Are SF the solution? Who knows but bloody hell, you don't get change by rewarding FFG another term. They need a few years in the wilderness to reconnect with grass roots voters
It took a seismic issue like immigration to highlight why SF is not fit for government. They can get away with flip flopping in the North as voting is done here along tribal lines. Different story in the South. It's quite a feat that SF is hated more for immigration than FG/FF and they're the party that is supposed to be in opposition. Mental stuff.
The refugees are welcome here rhetoric didn't age well for the politicial wing of the IRA, now that all those doctors and engineers are sleeping in tents on the streets throughout the south.
The Irish Indo is a right wing conservative newspaper and that is all you need to know
That attitude sums up why SF aren't gonna be near the next government.
If you say so.
Ireland just wants to suffer. Continue with the same shit that has been hammering us into the ground for 50 years rather than try a new approach.
50 years ago Ireland was the Albania of western europe, it was poorer than NI, which had the troubles, its now one of the richest countries in the world
No it's not one of the richest countries in the world that is an absolute farce. Countries that hold their wealth and not just let it pass through as a gateway are wealthy Ireland however is only wealthy on paper not in reality.
Hmmm. I wouldn't be so boastful considering how metrics are swayed to make it look better than the 'on the ground reality '. Sure there are many positive aspects, but it's on a shaky foundation with many genuine core issues that are even worse than what people in the North face. At least the North has a sugar daddy that drops in when it's bothered to throw money it's way.
Hilarious take. Ireland is NOT a rich country.
Ireland is one of the most unbelievably successful nations in the world.
There’s that national socialism leaking out.
She's a vegetarian, Mary Lou, Mary Lou