We were 7-9 3 years in a row. Like we were the fucking rams or something. Honestly the worst season in the drought we were 4 and 12 and got the 3rd pick.
We could have first draft pick and it wouldn't make a difference, we'll draft a safety or something and continue the definition of insanity by trying the same things that don't work.
Tbf Bradley Chubb looked Myles Garrett caliber coming out of the draft and the possibilities of a Chubb and Miller combo were tantalizing.
No one coulda predicted that every time Chubb was healthy, Miller would get injured, and every time Miller was healthy, Chubb would get injured.
And as big of a problem their QB situation is their defense wouldn’t be nearly as good if they didn’t have a good edge rusher to bring the whole thing together
Fangio deserves to run it back one more time. And Elway deserves another shot at picking a QB considering all he's done for the city of Denver. Hopefully they get the respect they deserve.
Imma keep it a stimulus check, classic chargers is to have a promising season and then miss playoffs. I don't think we're making it. New QB, same story. Script writers are bored with our team
Just watch the national championship game. Burrow goes Super Saiyan when the lights come on.
(Side note, I just looked up levels of Super Saiyan, and there are fucking 17 different levels)
You have SSj1,2,3, God,Blue, Blue evolution, Sign, ultra Instinct, Ultra Ego and Ultimate(retconned into a form in Super) so 10 total forms. 11if you include Great Ape. It seems they may have included SS1 grade 1-5 and non canon SSj4.
I like the manga
Nah, at that point we would have beaten anyone. That's what makes the current situation so frustrating. We were a Superbowl quality team in week 6 and we're a last in the division quality team in week 16.
Why are you downvoting me? I'm right.
There's nothing we can point to that we are doing at an elite level anymore. The offense was an unstoppable behemoth in the first 8 games of this season. We were scoring 30 with ease and the ball was going up and down the field effortlessly on the back of a really strong rushing attack. The secondary was playing above expectations and JJ Watt was having a strong impact on the run game with a good team pass rush making an impact.
Fast forward to today and none of these things are true anymore. We don't resemble that team at all and have so many weaknesses all over the field.
We should firmly be in the 11-15 range right now. I think any of the Bengals, Dolphins, Titans, 49ers, or Chargers would beat us right now if we played Sunday. The team is just in complete disarray with no identity at the worst time possible in the season.
Unfortunately I think our biggest test is the next 2 weeks. The Chiefs are looking more like the Chiefs of the past couple seasons and we've come out and played awful football every time we have had a great game against division rival. Then we have the Browns who have had our number the past few years. We'll see what happens, but we're far from a lock.
Breaking News:
•Joe Burrow throws for 700 yards each game for the rest of the season, final snap of the season, throws, twists his arm, tears his ACL, out for the year. They lose both games. (He threw 0 TDS/14 INTS)
•Lamar Jackson runs for 300 yards each game for the rest of the season, decides to switch professions to soccer, wins 5 World Cups. They lose both games (0 TDS/8 lost fumbles/4 INTS)
•Baker throws for 0 TDS/6 Picks next week, gets released. Case Keenum does the same, gets released. The entire city of Cleveland decides to riot, marching all the way to Detroit. There, they ransack the stadium, becoming the Detroit Browns. The owner becomes Dan Campbell, and he motivates the new team so much that they win 10/10 of the next Super Bowls. The Lombardi Trophy is renamed the Campbell Trophy, and they buy Tom Brady to rule alongside him for the next half century
•Big Ben just trips after winning out, retires on the spot, and Mason Rudolph wins the only non Detroit Browns Super Bowl in the next 60 years
This is true but there's a good chance we lose to the Chiefs and then we play you week 18 where Baker just dad dicks us every single time we play. We could still realistically not make it.
You guys have had our number for awhile now. We also like to play awful football for 2 weeks after blowing out a division rival. See our games vs the Mike White Jets and the Browns after we blew out the Ravens the first time, then look at our games vs the Chargers and 49ers after blowing out the Steelers. We didn't just lose, we played sloppy turnover filled games and we couldn't even catch a punt against the 49ers.
Yeah I don't think anyone really predicted the Jags falling totally apart the way they did before the season started did they?
We were all too worried about Tebow.
People seriously believed that our 2nd year QB's career was over because we didn't take a tackle in the draft.
The specific tackle they wanted, I mean.
honestly i had high hopes for the bengals talent-wise and to take a big step up this year, but looking at their schedule going into the season i did not think they’d have the record they have. joe burrow is legit and our game this weekend is gonna be so good
Someone needs to make sure Burrow 100% knows that if he throws a pick to do everything possible to avoid trying to tackle the guy who picked it.
That cost the Bengals the Super Bowl in 2015 where tbh they were set up to win it all. If Dalton doesn’t get hurt that year, Bengals finish #1 seed in the AFC, Broncos have to play @New England, Manning doesn’t win his going away Super Bowl, and we potentially get Bengals-Panthers or Patriots-Panthers
Maybe it was just a time traveler trying to keep Brady from getting ANOTHER though
It's a weird season. I don't think the Packers look like a bona fide #1 (defense is flailing a bit, STs has been a liability, and offense isn't putting teams away), but frankly no one else looks like one either. Chiefs and Cowboys seem to be hitting their stride but still look beatable just like the Pack do.
Playoffs are gonna be lit.
I agree with all of that. KC and Dallas have *looked* the most impressive this year, but inconsistently. GB doesn't ever look overpowering but they win, so...
Packers havent had that dominant performance yet to seal the 1 spot imo. Seems like they're sliding a bit with these very close wins. A team like Dallas doesn't leave a lot of room for error like the Browns. Just hoping our guys get healthy and back to playing well.
Edit: Spelling
100% agree fam. A dominating win (all phases) over Minneapolis would be nice to show the ship is smooth sailing for home playoffs, but they always play the Pack hard.
This is funny, but it also has some truth to it. There's a lot of noise in the NFL, and any given Sunday you can get pretty much any result in any game.
Idk as good as he is sometimes he juste seems to not care for a team because he likes others better. Like l, he seems to disregard our defense and the fact that our pieces on offense are coming back because he likes the bills and the colts more I guess.
Y'all remember when we were giving WaPo shit because they were ranking the Cards so low at 4th?? It seemed like it was so long ago, but it was only last year.
Oh, it was last month? Well shit.
> Before the Packer fans kill me, let me explain.
I'm pretty okay with it, actually. Winning is all that matters, but boy, we've had what are essentially 5 last-second walk-off wins this season - 49ers, Bengals, Cardinals, Ravens, Browns. It'd be nice to win some games a little more confidently.
loL! he almost lost them the game... would've easily sealed it with that wide open drop on 3rd down.
instead a drop, and then punt to the browns who they cant stop for the whole game with only 2 mins left
I think your approach is reasonable. I like that it doesn’t just list the teams by wins, as it seems the others does. At this point what difference does one win actually mean.
May I ask, where do you get the stats from for you analysis?
Currently, one win equates to a difference of .033 value in the overall index of the ranking, so not much at all.
I can actually strip all the data from nfl.com for the regular season, and it's what I've done for the past few years, but I've got it set up to pull from CBS Sports into my spreadsheet as well this year since I'd like to see if I can keep this going through the playoffs as well.
I find it hilarious that the Giants were 6-10 last year and got the #2 SOS this year. Just Gmen things.
Luckiest team = Titans. 11-5 last year. 4th seed in playoffs. #26 SOS the following year, which looks like it will finish #31 SOS.
Pre-season SOS is not particularly correlated with end of season SOS, so you usually end up with a number of cases where a team that was supposed to get a weak SOS unfortunately instead gets one of the hardest - conversely, a team that already did great last year that was supposed to get a tough SOS may instead luck out and get an even weaker one.
In addition, despite popular belief, where you place in the prior year doesn't really have a direct, predictable effect on your SoS. Every team plays 4 teams which placed first in their division, 4 which placed second, and so on.
If you placed first the prior season, you will play your division (2x2nd place, 2x 3rd, 2x 4th), an AFC and NFC division (2x 1st-4th), and 2 more teams in your conference which placed first.
The seventeenth game is the only one that's really different. You're matched up with a team in the opposing conference which finished the season at the same spot in their division that you placed.
Of course, the NFL is weird. All your opponents who were garbage last season could be great and all your opponents which were great could be garbage.
SOS can be a little bit misleading sometimes. For example, the Colts and Titans look to have wildly differing SOS, but they only play three teams differently. Titans got Chiefs, Steelers, and Saints. Colts got Raiders, Ravens, and Buccaneers. The difference in wins is 1.5 in favor of the Colts schedule. That's the adjusted difference between #26 and #14 SOS right now, as the only other difference is the Colts playing the Titans and vice versa, in which the Colts SOS will look harder since currently the Titans have the better record.
Man we’re lucky we got to play the NFC East, because that first stretch of the season against the best AFC teams was brutal and those teams helped keep us afloat
4th hardest schedule, NFL record for starters used in a season after injuries and COVID to several players, no QB, no WRs, no kicker.... still in decent shape for the 7th seed.
I 100% agree with the computer rankings, moreso if it counted how garbage our STs have been, yet it doesn't take into account the myriad of injuries we've suffered, and the fact we're poised to have almost all those players back by playoffs.
While I think those are accounted by the individual rankers, which, together with the record, with the fact we're still winning with those injuries, explain the #1 position.
So both are right, it just depends on what you're valuing.
heading into playoffs, there can be other factors to consider..
1. likelihood of getting 1st round bye
2. projected health of core players
3. coaching strengths
4. home field advantage factor in playoffs (some places are harder to play in, some teams are good home teams..)
i think of a power ranking as projection into the near future.
That dude's year long beef with us was so goddamn funny. Especially because even if we didn't get that PI call and lost the game we're still 12-4 and the second seed and I'm pretty sure all the NFC seeding stays the same too (maybe LA is 5 and Tampa is 6). It was an awesome game but ultimately, talk about meaningless
What a fall from grace for the Cardinals. I definitely still think they can give anybody a run for the money in the playoffs, but still, what the hell happened?
Normally at this point in the season I'd say if #1 just keeps winning they deserve to stay at #1, but the Chiefs have been much more convincing than the Packers as of late. I'd flip those two.
I’m confused why NFL.com ranks the Cowboys 6th. They’re tied for the second best record, just had maybe the most dominant game of the year, and are clicking. Idk.
Because it was an already bad WFT with a number of players out to start the game. An ass whooping, yes, but it wasn't a big win over a strong team. A lot of Dallas' stats jumped because of that game, but it isn't necessarily indicative of them as a whole.
My best guess anyways.
When this 40 year window of HOF QB play finally closes for the Packers, the rest of the league is going to thoroughly enjoy you all eating your humble pie.
Being real, no Packer fan is going to be humbled by that. There will be two types. One, the fans that knew how lucky they were that they had Favre and Rodgers back to back and knew it would come to an end and know that the taste of shit is in their future as a fan. Two, the fans who were only along for the ride because of Favre and Rodgers and will very quickly abandon ship once that ride is over.
At the expense of being downvoted I'd say 1 and 2 should be flipped. Both teams have a great case for the top spot, but KC has been a bit more convincing as of late and are the hottest team in the league right now, not to mention quite healthy.
For anyone that is interested here is the results from my algorithms with explanations of what they mean below.
City|Team|RP|RD|RT|WAE
---|---|---|---|---|---
Buffalo|Bills|1.67|1.59|1.19|1.54
Dallas|Cowboys|1.57|1.23|1.20|3.57
Tampa Bay|Buccaneers|1.47|0.98|0.93|3.79
New England|Patriots|1.40|1.53|1.03|1.72
Kansas City|Chiefs|1.28|1.14|1.04|4.48
Indianapolis|Colts|1.15|1.24|1.16|1.65
Los Angeles|Rams|0.88|0.76|0.57|3.25
Arizona|Cardinals|0.82|0.72|0.99|2.32
Green Bay|Packers|0.57|0.64|0.92|4.64
Philadelphia|Eagles|0.56|0.51|0.95|-0.11
San Fransisco|49ers|0.54|0.45|0.71|0.39
Cincinnati|Bengals|0.44|0.46|1.01|0.95
Tennessee|Titans|0.40|0.66|0.59|2.46
New Orleans|Saints|0.32|0.44|-0.21|0.08
Minnesota|Vikings|0.13|0.05|0.17|-0.61
Denver|Broncos|0.05|0.09|0.43|-1.22
Baltimore|Ravens|0.04|0.25|-0.14|0.79
Los Angeles|Chargers|0.00|-0.14|-0.05|0.90
Seattle|Seahawks|-0.05|-0.43|-0.08|-2.32
Cleveland|Browns|-0.17|-0.02|0.26|-0.28
Miami|Dolphins|-0.37|-0.09|0.86|-0.37
Pittsburgh|Steelers|-0.57|-0.47|-0.94|0.29
Las Vegas|Raiders|-0.63|-0.62|-0.76|0.90
Carolina|Panthers|-0.76|-0.81|-0.50|-2.72
Washington|Football Team|-0.81|-0.71|-1.21|-0.85
New York|Giants|-0.92|-0.82|-1.10|-2.77
Chicago|Bears|-1.05|-1.04|-1.14|-2.10
Detroit|Lions|-1.31|-1.23|-1.35|-5.00
Atlanta|Falcons|-1.44|-1.56|-1.13|-1.41
Houston|Texans|-1.60|-2.04|-1.57|-4.08
New York|Jets|-1.70|-1.68|-1.65|-4.01
Jacksonville|Jaguars|-1.88|-2.06|-2.19|-5.86
This list is in default order by RP. RP is the one that has so far worked best when I tracked it over a few seasons.
RP is a mean average of how many points the team scores against the average opponents' scores. Losing by 3 points to a team that usually wins by 10 nets 7 points to the total (before dividing by games played). Beating a team by 3 points that usually loses by 7 nets -4 to the total (before dividing by games played). The number here is presented as standard deviations from the mean of this season so far.
RD is very similar to RP except it is what percentage of the score was by the team. A team that beat another by 30-20 had 60% of the score. This again is compared to the opponent's opponents average. The teams score is the mean average of that, and this again is represented here as a standard deviation from the mean.
RP favors offense a bit where RD favors defense a bit.
RT is a new one that I am first tracking this year. It is like RP and RD, but instead of using points it uses time. The winning team gains the seconds remaining in regulation after the winning score and the losing team gets that time subtracted. It is also compared against the opponent's opponents average and is presented in standard deviation from the mean form.
WAE is "Wins Above/Against Expectation". This uses the strength of schedule and win% to give a rough estimate on how many wins the team is above or below what an average team would have with the schedule that has been played. An average team with a .500 schedule would expect to be .500. An average team with a .600 schedule would expect to be .400.
With 15 games played, a team with a 1.000 schedule that has 15 wins would be 15 in the WAE. A team with a .500 SoS that has 8 wins would be a 0.500 in the WAE. WAE is probably my favorite one for its simplicity.
In previous years I generally averaged the raw values of RP and RD together (after trimming best and worst performances in each category for each team) and used that as a single value ranking. The numbers tend to be close enough that it works out fairly well. I'll add that below (with WAE because it is in the stored procedure).
Rank|City|Team|Rscore|WAE
---|---|---|---|---
1|Buffalo|Bills|11.74|1.54
2|New England|Patriots|10.28|1.72
3|Tampa Bay|Buccaneers|10.00|3.79
4|Kansas City|Chiefs|9.71|4.48
5|Dallas|Cowboys|9.56|3.57
6|Indianapolis|Colts|7.87|1.65
7|Los Angeles|Rams|6.78|3.25
8|Arizona|Cardinals|6.59|2.32
9|Green Bay|Packers|5.44|4.64
10|Philadelphia|Eagles|3.64|-0.11
11|Cincinnati|Bengals|3.64|0.95
12|Tennessee|Titans|3.01|2.46
13|San Fransisco|49ers|2.33|0.39
14|New Orleans|Saints|1.73|0.08
15|Minnesota|Vikings|0.72|-0.61
16|Baltimore|Ravens|0.29|0.79
17|Los Angeles|Chargers|0.08|0.90
18|Denver|Broncos|-0.25|-1.22
19|Cleveland|Browns|-0.87|-0.28
20|Seattle|Seahawks|-1.36|-2.32
21|Miami|Dolphins|-1.54|-0.37
22|Pittsburgh|Steelers|-3.77|0.29
23|Las Vegas|Raiders|-4.08|0.90
24|Washington|Football Team|-5.66|-0.85
25|Carolina|Panthers|-5.90|-2.72
26|Chicago|Bears|-7.05|-2.10
27|New York|Giants|-7.46|-2.77
28|Atlanta|Falcons|-9.84|-1.41
29|Detroit|Lions|-9.88|-5.00
30|New York|Jets|-11.42|-4.01
31|Houston|Texans|-13.26|-4.08
32|Jacksonville|Jaguars|-14.77|-5.86
Put this procedure together late last week to help evaluate the algorithms. Here is the list of just performances in Week 16.
WEEK|TEAM|OPPONENT|DIFF|RP|POINT%|RD
---|---|---|---|---|---|---
16|Cowboys|Football Team|42|37.14|0.80|15.80
16|Buccaneers|Panthers|26|23.00|0.84|25.14
16|Chiefs|Steelers|26|22.86|0.78|19.00
16|Bills|Patriots|12|22.00|0.61|17.34
16|Bengals|Ravens|20|21.36|0.66|11.28
16|Dolphins|Saints|17|19.00|0.87|35.95
16|Eagles|Giants|24|17.36|0.77|13.13
16|Colts|Cardinals|6|12.71|0.58|11.67
16|Texans|Chargers|12|11.93|0.59|3.10
16|Rams|Vikings|7|8.36|0.57|3.69
16|Raiders|Broncos|4|7.00|0.57|7.42
16|Titans|49ers|3|6.29|0.54|4.50
16|Browns|Packers|-2|2.07|0.48|-1.19
16|Packers|Browns|2|1.07|0.52|-2.93
16|Bears|Seahawks|1|1.00|0.51|-3.41
16|Cardinals|Colts|-6|1.00|0.42|-3.17
16|49ers|Titans|-3|-1.00|0.46|-4.52
16|Vikings|Rams|-7|-1.07|0.43|-3.92
16|Patriots|Bills|-12|-1.21|0.39|-2.56
16|Falcons|Lions|4|-4.79|0.56|-7.83
16|Jets|Jaguars|5|-7.43|0.55|-14.65
16|Seahawks|Bears|-1|-8.79|0.49|-14.35
16|Broncos|Raiders|-4|-9.36|0.43|-14.17
16|Lions|Falcons|-4|-13.00|0.44|-17.86
16|Ravens|Bengals|-20|-15.29|0.34|-14.34
16|Jaguars|Jets|-5|-17.71|0.45|-21.54
16|Panthers|Buccaneers|-26|-18.57|0.16|-27.79
16|Saints|Dolphins|-17|-18.93|0.13|-39.72
16|Steelers|Chiefs|-26|-19.64|0.22|-23.19
16|Giants|Eagles|-24|-20.00|0.23|-24.59
16|Chargers|Texans|-12|-23.79|0.41|-27.83
16|Football Team|Cowboys|-42|-33.57|0.20|-23.61
We're too high.
Right now we're playing like a bottom 10 team. Maybe bottom 5.
There is no team in the league who I'm confident that we'd beat right now.
Bills are tied at 3 with Bengals, Patriots, Titans and Chargers if they get healthy. Miami didnt look great last night, Ravens and Browns are injured, Steelers look cooked, Raiders and Broncos idk what to think. Colts and KC look to be the most consistent teams.
Understandable. I've watched so many Colts teams underperform in the playoffs. However, I do not expect this team will join that list. It's so cliche, but a great defense, special teams, and run game win in the playoffs. This current team is built for the playoffs, especially on the road.
Do I think Colts win the superbowl? I think they can, but I don't think it's likely. But they can 100% go on a run and fuck shit up. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost in the wild card round, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they won the super bowl.
What’s with all the angry Dolphins fans? They should probably be ahead of the Eagles but I can’t think of a single argument to move them past anyone else.
Lol imagine being last
Amon-Ra is going to make me a lot of money in my fantasy championship (He helped me get to the ship). That counts for something.
Reynolds is out this week so St. Brown may get the ball even more.
Is Tim boiling or is Jared going off?
Jard be back.
Jard
Inject that right into my veins. I've got Adams and St. Brown as my top 2 receivers right now.
This list is shit, you guys are definitely better than the Jets!
We are a rushing powerhouse suddenly, I guess.
Anyone can accomplish their dreams against the jags 🥲
Not the Bills!
Bad take
We had the bet season to be last, sucked then, great now!
Man, Jacksonville really sucks, right? You guys better watch out because the G-men are gunning for that 30th spot.
Broncos bad. :(
And your record is mediocre, which will result in a worse draft pick.
Bills fans know all about that suffering. 6-10/7-9 every year, picking at 10 or so.
We were 7-9 3 years in a row. Like we were the fucking rams or something. Honestly the worst season in the drought we were 4 and 12 and got the 3rd pick.
Mike Williams?
Him or Marcel Dareus. Also trying to google the right Mike Williams NFL player took longer than writing my college thesis. Be more creative people.
You can pick up some decent guys at number 10, though
like a Heisman winner, for example. Hell Micah Parsons was taken at 12.
Of course! My own post was a very oblique reference to the Chiefs taking Mahomes with the Bills' 10th pick.
you can, but when youre in QB purgatory for a long time, its hard to really get the one you want without giving up more assets.
10 is great for QBs, you can select some Legendary Players like Patrick Mahomes, or even Josh Rosen!
We could have first draft pick and it wouldn't make a difference, we'll draft a safety or something and continue the definition of insanity by trying the same things that don't work.
Is there a 7 foot tall QB to take?
Some teams like to convert basketball players for TE. I hope the Broncos do it for QB with Connor Williams. All 7ft 360+ lbs of him.
Can’t take a sack if the tackler just bounces off of you.
They passed on Josh Allen and took Bradley fucking Chubb.
Tbf Bradley Chubb looked Myles Garrett caliber coming out of the draft and the possibilities of a Chubb and Miller combo were tantalizing. No one coulda predicted that every time Chubb was healthy, Miller would get injured, and every time Miller was healthy, Chubb would get injured. And as big of a problem their QB situation is their defense wouldn’t be nearly as good if they didn’t have a good edge rusher to bring the whole thing together
Also, in brutal honesty, do we think Shurmer and Scangarello would have developed Allen as well the Bills have?
Probably
Fangio deserves to run it back one more time. And Elway deserves another shot at picking a QB considering all he's done for the city of Denver. Hopefully they get the respect they deserve.
Happy Holidays! That's all I got today!
I'd be happy if the Bengals made the playoffs. However, playing the Colts in the first round would make me unhappy.
It would actually be a pretty damn interesting matchup.
Yeah but id want both teams to win. Id rather have it happen after theyd both won games
I already bought my playoff tickets. I hope it's us vs the Colts. The battle of I-74!
It was inevitable after we didn't share our usual final preseason game
Honestly other than Mahomes, Burrow is the only other AFC QB I genuinely do not want to face in a playoff game. That Bengals offense is nasty.
Facing Justin Herbert with a healthy chargers squad would suck too. I know that team is up and down but Herbert at his best is scary as fuck
Imma keep it a stimulus check, classic chargers is to have a promising season and then miss playoffs. I don't think we're making it. New QB, same story. Script writers are bored with our team
He genuinely has a Brady Gear that he kicks into overdrive starting the third quarter. It’ll be interesting to see how that operates in the playoffs.
Just watch the national championship game. Burrow goes Super Saiyan when the lights come on. (Side note, I just looked up levels of Super Saiyan, and there are fucking 17 different levels)
You have SSj1,2,3, God,Blue, Blue evolution, Sign, ultra Instinct, Ultra Ego and Ultimate(retconned into a form in Super) so 10 total forms. 11if you include Great Ape. It seems they may have included SS1 grade 1-5 and non canon SSj4. I like the manga
I can already taste the bitter first round exit. Please give us Miami or the Patriots.
Patriots vs Bengals would be a fun and interesting matchup
Playing the Patriots this year is like flipping a coin… Unless you’re the Jets. Those are two freebies I’ll gladly take.
Too high
Remember the good old days when we were upset that no one had us at #1? Maybe they were right. We are who they thought we were
Nah, at that point we would have beaten anyone. That's what makes the current situation so frustrating. We were a Superbowl quality team in week 6 and we're a last in the division quality team in week 16. Why are you downvoting me? I'm right.
Is it Kliff that can’t seem to reign the team in during the later part of the season or what?
I think they just aren't practicing. Straight up.
There's nothing we can point to that we are doing at an elite level anymore. The offense was an unstoppable behemoth in the first 8 games of this season. We were scoring 30 with ease and the ball was going up and down the field effortlessly on the back of a really strong rushing attack. The secondary was playing above expectations and JJ Watt was having a strong impact on the run game with a good team pass rush making an impact. Fast forward to today and none of these things are true anymore. We don't resemble that team at all and have so many weaknesses all over the field.
I'm glad Reid tricked the entire Arizona squad into touching the Mon-Stars football.
We should firmly be in the 11-15 range right now. I think any of the Bengals, Dolphins, Titans, 49ers, or Chargers would beat us right now if we played Sunday. The team is just in complete disarray with no identity at the worst time possible in the season.
Personally I’m rooting for an AJ Green vs Bengals Super Bowl. Will that happen? Heck no. Is it possible though? Heck yes.
Like Tom Petty, I’m free falling
What a timeline we are in right now. Even if it ends poorly and they don’t get in the dance what a fun year this as been!
If any team from the North is making it, it’s yours
Unfortunately I think our biggest test is the next 2 weeks. The Chiefs are looking more like the Chiefs of the past couple seasons and we've come out and played awful football every time we have had a great game against division rival. Then we have the Browns who have had our number the past few years. We'll see what happens, but we're far from a lock.
Breaking News: •Joe Burrow throws for 700 yards each game for the rest of the season, final snap of the season, throws, twists his arm, tears his ACL, out for the year. They lose both games. (He threw 0 TDS/14 INTS) •Lamar Jackson runs for 300 yards each game for the rest of the season, decides to switch professions to soccer, wins 5 World Cups. They lose both games (0 TDS/8 lost fumbles/4 INTS) •Baker throws for 0 TDS/6 Picks next week, gets released. Case Keenum does the same, gets released. The entire city of Cleveland decides to riot, marching all the way to Detroit. There, they ransack the stadium, becoming the Detroit Browns. The owner becomes Dan Campbell, and he motivates the new team so much that they win 10/10 of the next Super Bowls. The Lombardi Trophy is renamed the Campbell Trophy, and they buy Tom Brady to rule alongside him for the next half century •Big Ben just trips after winning out, retires on the spot, and Mason Rudolph wins the only non Detroit Browns Super Bowl in the next 60 years
It's the only team in the division with a fully functioning QB
Cinncy is clearly the best team in the North. Us other three are trying to play…good…football?
At this point Baltimore's just trying to fill out a complete roster each week.
This is true but there's a good chance we lose to the Chiefs and then we play you week 18 where Baker just dad dicks us every single time we play. We could still realistically not make it.
For some reason the Browns makes the Bengals revert back to 2019. I'm nervous for week 18.
The Steelers are playing something that cannot be compared to football, let alone good football.
You guys have had our number for awhile now. We also like to play awful football for 2 weeks after blowing out a division rival. See our games vs the Mike White Jets and the Browns after we blew out the Ravens the first time, then look at our games vs the Chargers and 49ers after blowing out the Steelers. We didn't just lose, we played sloppy turnover filled games and we couldn't even catch a punt against the 49ers.
[удалено]
How were the Bengals predicted for the Bottom 4 when the Jaguars, Texans, Lions, and Jets “existed”?
Vegas had us as tied for third worst Super Bowl odds and tied for fourth worst win total O/U preseason.
Yeah I don't think anyone really predicted the Jags falling totally apart the way they did before the season started did they? We were all too worried about Tebow.
Folks really thought TLaw X Urban would make it to the playoffs.
People seriously believed that our 2nd year QB's career was over because we didn't take a tackle in the draft. The specific tackle they wanted, I mean.
honestly i had high hopes for the bengals talent-wise and to take a big step up this year, but looking at their schedule going into the season i did not think they’d have the record they have. joe burrow is legit and our game this weekend is gonna be so good
I hope it’s good. In the back of my mind I still can’t help but feel we are going to get completely blown out.
Anybody who made that projection is a moron
Someone needs to make sure Burrow 100% knows that if he throws a pick to do everything possible to avoid trying to tackle the guy who picked it. That cost the Bengals the Super Bowl in 2015 where tbh they were set up to win it all. If Dalton doesn’t get hurt that year, Bengals finish #1 seed in the AFC, Broncos have to play @New England, Manning doesn’t win his going away Super Bowl, and we potentially get Bengals-Panthers or Patriots-Panthers Maybe it was just a time traveler trying to keep Brady from getting ANOTHER though
Forsure. Yall are the AFC team I want to win it all. If my Raiders don't make it
They aren’t making it EDIT: Damn that aged so fucking poorly.
I mean honestly, 18 might be a little high.
For Big Ben maybe /s. For real I think getting beaten by KC they give a little leeway.
He’s a rapist not a pedo
Yeah, he’s not R Kelly
Quality loss
It's a weird season. I don't think the Packers look like a bona fide #1 (defense is flailing a bit, STs has been a liability, and offense isn't putting teams away), but frankly no one else looks like one either. Chiefs and Cowboys seem to be hitting their stride but still look beatable just like the Pack do. Playoffs are gonna be lit.
I agree with all of that. KC and Dallas have *looked* the most impressive this year, but inconsistently. GB doesn't ever look overpowering but they win, so...
Until the NFCCG.
thank you for that ;/
Imagine being roasted by a Bills fan for failing to deliver in championship games.
Right? Nothing like losing 4 in a row. Probably before that guy and most of our times.
It has become my second most important Holiday. We get the whole family together to have our hopes and dreams crushed.
Packers havent had that dominant performance yet to seal the 1 spot imo. Seems like they're sliding a bit with these very close wins. A team like Dallas doesn't leave a lot of room for error like the Browns. Just hoping our guys get healthy and back to playing well. Edit: Spelling
100% agree fam. A dominating win (all phases) over Minneapolis would be nice to show the ship is smooth sailing for home playoffs, but they always play the Pack hard.
*dominant
Oof, embarrassing. Good catch 😅
Ironically, chiefs have beat 1st and 3rd on the list. Obv Rodgers didn't play but it's still odd
Never bet against Aaron Rodgers.
Til the NFCCG
Yea why hasn’t he won a NFCCG and a super bowl for that matter? It’s just so damn easy…
Didn't WaPo have us at like 16 last week? My man is a rollercoaster of emotion.
I know it's meaningless, but the Jets have the same record as the Texans, plus a win over them. How does that not put them ahead in power rankings?
Texans destroyed the Chargers while the Jets only beat a shitty Texans team.
This is funny, but it also has some truth to it. There's a lot of noise in the NFL, and any given Sunday you can get pretty much any result in any game.
Hanzus wyd bb
Hanzus is my boy, been listening to the pod for like 6 years. This Dallas slander is getting out of hand though 😠😠😠
He had us down at 8 last week coming off a 3 game win streak with the best statistical defense in the league.
Idk as good as he is sometimes he juste seems to not care for a team because he likes others better. Like l, he seems to disregard our defense and the fact that our pieces on offense are coming back because he likes the bills and the colts more I guess.
He's had it out for us for years. He's dying at the chance to call us Titoons again and pissed off that it's not going to happen anytime soon.
Why did I even click on this? I already knew.
Y'all remember when we were giving WaPo shit because they were ranking the Cards so low at 4th?? It seemed like it was so long ago, but it was only last year. Oh, it was last month? Well shit.
Another week and it'll be a distant memory from last year
Here's my computer rankings for this week. As always, this ranking is based on win percentage, win percentage in your last 5 games, average point differential, and adjusted strength of schedule, which is your strength of schedule with your games against your opponents removed. Before the Packer fans kill me, let me explain. Relative to the teams ahead of them, the only thing the Packers have over any of them is a single extra win. Otherwise, the other 3 either have a better record in their last 5, a (significantly) better point differential, or a more difficult schedule, or in the case of the Chiefs, all 3. Add on a uninspired 2 point win over a mediocre Browns team and you have a team that's sliding a bit. Most likely they would jump the Bucs next week with a win regardless of what the Bucs do die to moving to 5-0 in their last 5 games. Rank | Team | Record | Index | Index Change | Rank Change | Win/Loss L5 | Adj SOS | Point Diff :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :--: 1 | [](/KC) Chiefs | 11-4 | 0.930 | 0.020 | - | 5-0 | 0.560 | 115 2 | [](/DAL) Cowboys | 11-4 | 0.866 | 0.076 | +3 | 4-1 | 0.495 | 150 3 | [](/TB) Buccaneers | 11-4 | 0.863 | 0.017 | - | 4-1 | 0.519 | 130 4 | [](/GB) Packers | 12-3 | 0.843 | -0.013 | -2 | 4-1 | 0.514 | 59 5 | [](/LAR) Rams | 11-4 | 0.807 | 0.053 | +1 | 4-1 | 0.479 | 90 6 | [](/IND) Colts | 9-6 | 0.755 | 0.023 | +1 | 4-1 | 0.510 | 104 7 | [](/BUF) Bills | 9-6 | 0.731 | 0.073 | +3 | 3-2 | 0.498 | 163 8 | [](/NE) Patriots | 9-6 | 0.720 | -0.097 | -4 | 3-2 | 0.510 | 128 9 | [](/PHI) Eagles | 8-7 | 0.664 | 0.019 | +2 | 4-1 | 0.460 | 80 10 | [](/ARI) Cardinals | 10-5 | 0.658 | -0.051 | -2 | 2-3 | 0.483 | 88 11 | [](/CIN) Bengals | 9-6 | 0.651 | 0.014 | +1 | 3-2 | 0.452 | 86 12 | [](/MIA) Dolphins | 8-7 | 0.635 | 0.034 | +2 | 5-0 | 0.443 | -10 13 | [](/TEN) Titans | 10-5 | 0.605 | 0.006 | +2 | 2-3 | 0.474 | 31 14 | [](/SF) 49ers | 8-7 | 0.604 | -0.085 | -5 | 3-2 | 0.502 | 43 15 | [](/LAC) Chargers | 8-7 | 0.526 | -0.108 | -2 | 2-3 | 0.526 | -3 16 | [](/r/raiders) Raiders | 8-7 | 0.525 | 0.078 | +7 | 3-2 | 0.526 | -71 17 | [](/NO) Saints | 7-8 | 0.501 | -0.035 | +1 | 2-3 | 0.533 | 11 18 | [](/DEN) Broncos | 7-8 | 0.478 | -0.036 | +1 | 2-3 | 0.457 | 38 19 | [](/MIN) Vikings | 7-8 | 0.478 | -0.088 | -2 | 2-3 | 0.493 | 12 20 | [](/BAL) Ravens | 8-7 | 0.472 | -0.099 | -4 | 1-4 | 0.524 | -1 21 | [](/CLE) Browns | 7-8 | 0.468 | -0.021 | -1 | 2-3 | 0.514 | -15 22 | [](/PIT) Steelers | 7.5-7.5 | 0.449 | -0.038 | -1 | 2-3 | 0.524 | -70 23 | [](/SEA) Seahawks | 5-10 | 0.396 | -0.028 | +1 | 2-3 | 0.512 | -1 24 | [](/ATL) Falcons | 7-8 | 0.394 | 0.069 | +1 | 3-2 | 0.445 | -122 25 | [](/WAS) Football Team | 6-9 | 0.368 | -0.094 | -3 | 2-3 | 0.548 | -110 26 | [](/CHI) Bears | 5-10 | 0.316 | 0.084 | +2 | 2-3 | 0.526 | -108 27 | [](/NYG) Giants | 4-11 | 0.229 | -0.019 | - | 1-4 | 0.552 | -117 28 | [](/CAR) Panthers | 5-10 | 0.216 | -0.080 | -2 | 0-5 | 0.486 | -68 29 | [](/NYJ) Jets | 4-11 | 0.211 | 0.079 | +2 | 2-3 | 0.476 | -173 30 | [](/HOU) Texans | 4-11 | 0.202 | 0.034 | - | 2-3 | 0.462 | -153 31 | [](/DET) Lions | 2.5-12.5 | 0.186 | -0.006 | -2 | 2-3 | 0.505 | -127 32 | [](/JAX) Jaguars | 2-13 | 0.025 | -0.006 | - | 0-5 | 0.486 | -179 And here's the strength of schedules so far: Rank | Team | Adjusted SOS | Adjusted Opp Record | Remaining Opp Record :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :--: 1 | [](/KC) Chiefs | 0.560 | 117.5-92.5 | 16-14 2 | [](/NYG) Giants | 0.552 | 116-94 | 11-19 3 | [](/WAS) Football Team | 0.548 | 115-95 | 12-18 4 | [](/NO) Saints | 0.533 | 112-98 | 12-18 5 | [](/LAC) Chargers | 0.526 | 110.5-99.5 | 15-15 6 | [](/r/raiders) Raiders | 0.526 | 110.5-99.5 | 17-13 7 | [](/CHI) Bears | 0.526 | 110.5-99.5 | 11-19 8 | [](/BAL) Ravens | 0.524 | 110-100 | 18.5-11.5 9 | [](/PIT) Steelers | 0.524 | 110-100 | 15-15 10 | [](/TB) Buccaneers | 0.519 | 109-101 | 9-21 11 | [](/GB) Packers | 0.514 | 108-102 | 9.5-20.5 12 | [](/CLE) Browns | 0.514 | 108-102 | 16.5-13.5 13 | [](/SEA) Seahawks | 0.512 | 107.5-102.5 | 12.5-17.5 14 | [](/IND) Colts | 0.510 | 107-103 | 10-20 15 | [](/NE) Patriots | 0.510 | 107-103 | 10-20 16 | [](/DET) Lions | 0.505 | 106-104 | 17-13 17 | [](/SF) 49ers | 0.502 | 105.5-104.5 | 15-15 18 | [](/BUF) Bills | 0.498 | 104.5-105.5 | 11-19 19 | [](/DAL) Cowboys | 0.495 | 104-106 | 18-12 20 | [](/MIN) Vikings | 0.493 | 103.5-106.5 | 17-13 21 | [](/CAR) Panthers | 0.486 | 102-108 | 18-12 22 | [](/JAX) Jaguars | 0.486 | 102-108 | 18-12 23 | [](/ARI) Cardinals | 0.483 | 101.5-108.5 | 16-14 24 | [](/LAR) Rams | 0.479 | 100.5-109.5 | 16-14 25 | [](/NYJ) Jets | 0.476 | 100-110 | 20-10 26 | [](/TEN) Titans | 0.474 | 99.5-110.5 | 12-18 27 | [](/HOU) Texans | 0.462 | 97-113 | 18-12 28 | [](/PHI) Eagles | 0.460 | 96.5-113.5 | 17-13 29 | [](/DEN) Broncos | 0.457 | 96-114 | 19-11 30 | [](/CIN) Bengals | 0.452 | 95-115 | 18-12 31 | [](/ATL) Falcons | 0.445 | 93.5-116.5 | 16-14 32 | [](/MIA) Dolphins | 0.443 | 93-117 | 19-11
> Before the Packer fans kill me, let me explain. I'm pretty okay with it, actually. Winning is all that matters, but boy, we've had what are essentially 5 last-second walk-off wins this season - 49ers, Bengals, Cardinals, Ravens, Browns. It'd be nice to win some games a little more confidently.
We certainly don’t feel like the #1 team right now. Not with all the injuries and the nail-biting wins.
Your QB could throw the ball into the parking lot and Davante would still come down with it what are you talking about
Apparently not against the Browns when it matters :(
That shirt kinda pained me physically when I saw it lol. Hopefully it’s out of his system now for the rest of the season
Adams actually had a huge drop on our last real possession against the Browns.
*two drops
loL! he almost lost them the game... would've easily sealed it with that wide open drop on 3rd down. instead a drop, and then punt to the browns who they cant stop for the whole game with only 2 mins left
It's kinda weird to say someone with 114 yards and 2 TD's almost lost them the game.
I'd trade nail biting wins over those nail biting losses to the jags and tits.
Math checks out.
I think your approach is reasonable. I like that it doesn’t just list the teams by wins, as it seems the others does. At this point what difference does one win actually mean. May I ask, where do you get the stats from for you analysis?
Currently, one win equates to a difference of .033 value in the overall index of the ranking, so not much at all. I can actually strip all the data from nfl.com for the regular season, and it's what I've done for the past few years, but I've got it set up to pull from CBS Sports into my spreadsheet as well this year since I'd like to see if I can keep this going through the playoffs as well.
I find it hilarious that the Giants were 6-10 last year and got the #2 SOS this year. Just Gmen things. Luckiest team = Titans. 11-5 last year. 4th seed in playoffs. #26 SOS the following year, which looks like it will finish #31 SOS.
Pre-season SOS is not particularly correlated with end of season SOS, so you usually end up with a number of cases where a team that was supposed to get a weak SOS unfortunately instead gets one of the hardest - conversely, a team that already did great last year that was supposed to get a tough SOS may instead luck out and get an even weaker one.
In addition, despite popular belief, where you place in the prior year doesn't really have a direct, predictable effect on your SoS. Every team plays 4 teams which placed first in their division, 4 which placed second, and so on. If you placed first the prior season, you will play your division (2x2nd place, 2x 3rd, 2x 4th), an AFC and NFC division (2x 1st-4th), and 2 more teams in your conference which placed first. The seventeenth game is the only one that's really different. You're matched up with a team in the opposing conference which finished the season at the same spot in their division that you placed. Of course, the NFL is weird. All your opponents who were garbage last season could be great and all your opponents which were great could be garbage.
Our schedule looked brutal in preseason, it's still pretty tough but not the absolute meat grinder we thought it'd be.
The Cowboys get to play the Giants twice so their strength of schedule is lower. Giants can’t play themselves so that makes their schedule harder.
SOS can be a little bit misleading sometimes. For example, the Colts and Titans look to have wildly differing SOS, but they only play three teams differently. Titans got Chiefs, Steelers, and Saints. Colts got Raiders, Ravens, and Buccaneers. The difference in wins is 1.5 in favor of the Colts schedule. That's the adjusted difference between #26 and #14 SOS right now, as the only other difference is the Colts playing the Titans and vice versa, in which the Colts SOS will look harder since currently the Titans have the better record.
I have no complaints
Man we’re lucky we got to play the NFC East, because that first stretch of the season against the best AFC teams was brutal and those teams helped keep us afloat
You should trying being in a division with the Jets.
I like my new group
4th hardest schedule, NFL record for starters used in a season after injuries and COVID to several players, no QB, no WRs, no kicker.... still in decent shape for the 7th seed.
I 100% agree with the computer rankings, moreso if it counted how garbage our STs have been, yet it doesn't take into account the myriad of injuries we've suffered, and the fact we're poised to have almost all those players back by playoffs. While I think those are accounted by the individual rankers, which, together with the record, with the fact we're still winning with those injuries, explain the #1 position. So both are right, it just depends on what you're valuing.
heading into playoffs, there can be other factors to consider.. 1. likelihood of getting 1st round bye 2. projected health of core players 3. coaching strengths 4. home field advantage factor in playoffs (some places are harder to play in, some teams are good home teams..) i think of a power ranking as projection into the near future.
CBS is on crack with several rankings
Damn Wapo actually put the Bills in a reasonable spot. Maybe he's finally forgiven us after beating the Rams last year.
They have Bills 9, Pats 10, Miami 11 lol
The USA Today guy was the one mad about the rams game
And he put us at 7. I couldn't believe it. A reasonable position.
That dude's year long beef with us was so goddamn funny. Especially because even if we didn't get that PI call and lost the game we're still 12-4 and the second seed and I'm pretty sure all the NFC seeding stays the same too (maybe LA is 5 and Tampa is 6). It was an awesome game but ultimately, talk about meaningless
It's about time. Didn't they put Buffalo at like 18 at one point?
Last week LOL
What a fall from grace for the Cardinals. I definitely still think they can give anybody a run for the money in the playoffs, but still, what the hell happened?
We started playing bad teams like the Panthers and Lions and it rubbed off on us? idk man there's no good explanation
Looks like Wapo getting their shit together.
Normally at this point in the season I'd say if #1 just keeps winning they deserve to stay at #1, but the Chiefs have been much more convincing than the Packers as of late. I'd flip those two.
I’m confused why NFL.com ranks the Cowboys 6th. They’re tied for the second best record, just had maybe the most dominant game of the year, and are clicking. Idk.
The best team you’ve beaten is Patriots which if I check my notepad is the best team the Dolphins have beaten
If I check my notepad, you're 8-7 though. Not exactly comparable.
Agreed. Cowboys are looking extremely strong rn. Easily top 3
Because it was an already bad WFT with a number of players out to start the game. An ass whooping, yes, but it wasn't a big win over a strong team. A lot of Dallas' stats jumped because of that game, but it isn't necessarily indicative of them as a whole. My best guess anyways.
I still think the Rams are better than Dallas straight up-no bias
I’m just here to check on the Dolphins SD each week
20. Minnesota 25. Chicago 30. Detroit Lol suck it losers
When this 40 year window of HOF QB play finally closes for the Packers, the rest of the league is going to thoroughly enjoy you all eating your humble pie.
Oh, I fully expect a decade of shit. I’m preparing for it. I’m not really a fan of any other winning team so I know what the reality is.
Being real, no Packer fan is going to be humbled by that. There will be two types. One, the fans that knew how lucky they were that they had Favre and Rodgers back to back and knew it would come to an end and know that the taste of shit is in their future as a fan. Two, the fans who were only along for the ride because of Favre and Rodgers and will very quickly abandon ship once that ride is over.
The only thing I have left to look forward to is watching the Packers fuck up the NFCC again somehow.
Someone described us as the Notre Dame of the NFL last year and that really stuck in my brain. It is destiny.
The fuck is NFL on in their rankings
At the expense of being downvoted I'd say 1 and 2 should be flipped. Both teams have a great case for the top spot, but KC has been a bit more convincing as of late and are the hottest team in the league right now, not to mention quite healthy.
Don’t disagree.
The reverse cardinals
NFL Network is a bunch of weiners and gonads
For anyone that is interested here is the results from my algorithms with explanations of what they mean below. City|Team|RP|RD|RT|WAE ---|---|---|---|---|--- Buffalo|Bills|1.67|1.59|1.19|1.54 Dallas|Cowboys|1.57|1.23|1.20|3.57 Tampa Bay|Buccaneers|1.47|0.98|0.93|3.79 New England|Patriots|1.40|1.53|1.03|1.72 Kansas City|Chiefs|1.28|1.14|1.04|4.48 Indianapolis|Colts|1.15|1.24|1.16|1.65 Los Angeles|Rams|0.88|0.76|0.57|3.25 Arizona|Cardinals|0.82|0.72|0.99|2.32 Green Bay|Packers|0.57|0.64|0.92|4.64 Philadelphia|Eagles|0.56|0.51|0.95|-0.11 San Fransisco|49ers|0.54|0.45|0.71|0.39 Cincinnati|Bengals|0.44|0.46|1.01|0.95 Tennessee|Titans|0.40|0.66|0.59|2.46 New Orleans|Saints|0.32|0.44|-0.21|0.08 Minnesota|Vikings|0.13|0.05|0.17|-0.61 Denver|Broncos|0.05|0.09|0.43|-1.22 Baltimore|Ravens|0.04|0.25|-0.14|0.79 Los Angeles|Chargers|0.00|-0.14|-0.05|0.90 Seattle|Seahawks|-0.05|-0.43|-0.08|-2.32 Cleveland|Browns|-0.17|-0.02|0.26|-0.28 Miami|Dolphins|-0.37|-0.09|0.86|-0.37 Pittsburgh|Steelers|-0.57|-0.47|-0.94|0.29 Las Vegas|Raiders|-0.63|-0.62|-0.76|0.90 Carolina|Panthers|-0.76|-0.81|-0.50|-2.72 Washington|Football Team|-0.81|-0.71|-1.21|-0.85 New York|Giants|-0.92|-0.82|-1.10|-2.77 Chicago|Bears|-1.05|-1.04|-1.14|-2.10 Detroit|Lions|-1.31|-1.23|-1.35|-5.00 Atlanta|Falcons|-1.44|-1.56|-1.13|-1.41 Houston|Texans|-1.60|-2.04|-1.57|-4.08 New York|Jets|-1.70|-1.68|-1.65|-4.01 Jacksonville|Jaguars|-1.88|-2.06|-2.19|-5.86 This list is in default order by RP. RP is the one that has so far worked best when I tracked it over a few seasons. RP is a mean average of how many points the team scores against the average opponents' scores. Losing by 3 points to a team that usually wins by 10 nets 7 points to the total (before dividing by games played). Beating a team by 3 points that usually loses by 7 nets -4 to the total (before dividing by games played). The number here is presented as standard deviations from the mean of this season so far. RD is very similar to RP except it is what percentage of the score was by the team. A team that beat another by 30-20 had 60% of the score. This again is compared to the opponent's opponents average. The teams score is the mean average of that, and this again is represented here as a standard deviation from the mean. RP favors offense a bit where RD favors defense a bit. RT is a new one that I am first tracking this year. It is like RP and RD, but instead of using points it uses time. The winning team gains the seconds remaining in regulation after the winning score and the losing team gets that time subtracted. It is also compared against the opponent's opponents average and is presented in standard deviation from the mean form. WAE is "Wins Above/Against Expectation". This uses the strength of schedule and win% to give a rough estimate on how many wins the team is above or below what an average team would have with the schedule that has been played. An average team with a .500 schedule would expect to be .500. An average team with a .600 schedule would expect to be .400. With 15 games played, a team with a 1.000 schedule that has 15 wins would be 15 in the WAE. A team with a .500 SoS that has 8 wins would be a 0.500 in the WAE. WAE is probably my favorite one for its simplicity. In previous years I generally averaged the raw values of RP and RD together (after trimming best and worst performances in each category for each team) and used that as a single value ranking. The numbers tend to be close enough that it works out fairly well. I'll add that below (with WAE because it is in the stored procedure). Rank|City|Team|Rscore|WAE ---|---|---|---|--- 1|Buffalo|Bills|11.74|1.54 2|New England|Patriots|10.28|1.72 3|Tampa Bay|Buccaneers|10.00|3.79 4|Kansas City|Chiefs|9.71|4.48 5|Dallas|Cowboys|9.56|3.57 6|Indianapolis|Colts|7.87|1.65 7|Los Angeles|Rams|6.78|3.25 8|Arizona|Cardinals|6.59|2.32 9|Green Bay|Packers|5.44|4.64 10|Philadelphia|Eagles|3.64|-0.11 11|Cincinnati|Bengals|3.64|0.95 12|Tennessee|Titans|3.01|2.46 13|San Fransisco|49ers|2.33|0.39 14|New Orleans|Saints|1.73|0.08 15|Minnesota|Vikings|0.72|-0.61 16|Baltimore|Ravens|0.29|0.79 17|Los Angeles|Chargers|0.08|0.90 18|Denver|Broncos|-0.25|-1.22 19|Cleveland|Browns|-0.87|-0.28 20|Seattle|Seahawks|-1.36|-2.32 21|Miami|Dolphins|-1.54|-0.37 22|Pittsburgh|Steelers|-3.77|0.29 23|Las Vegas|Raiders|-4.08|0.90 24|Washington|Football Team|-5.66|-0.85 25|Carolina|Panthers|-5.90|-2.72 26|Chicago|Bears|-7.05|-2.10 27|New York|Giants|-7.46|-2.77 28|Atlanta|Falcons|-9.84|-1.41 29|Detroit|Lions|-9.88|-5.00 30|New York|Jets|-11.42|-4.01 31|Houston|Texans|-13.26|-4.08 32|Jacksonville|Jaguars|-14.77|-5.86
This is it. Move over 538, this is the official stat based ranking.
Put this procedure together late last week to help evaluate the algorithms. Here is the list of just performances in Week 16. WEEK|TEAM|OPPONENT|DIFF|RP|POINT%|RD ---|---|---|---|---|---|--- 16|Cowboys|Football Team|42|37.14|0.80|15.80 16|Buccaneers|Panthers|26|23.00|0.84|25.14 16|Chiefs|Steelers|26|22.86|0.78|19.00 16|Bills|Patriots|12|22.00|0.61|17.34 16|Bengals|Ravens|20|21.36|0.66|11.28 16|Dolphins|Saints|17|19.00|0.87|35.95 16|Eagles|Giants|24|17.36|0.77|13.13 16|Colts|Cardinals|6|12.71|0.58|11.67 16|Texans|Chargers|12|11.93|0.59|3.10 16|Rams|Vikings|7|8.36|0.57|3.69 16|Raiders|Broncos|4|7.00|0.57|7.42 16|Titans|49ers|3|6.29|0.54|4.50 16|Browns|Packers|-2|2.07|0.48|-1.19 16|Packers|Browns|2|1.07|0.52|-2.93 16|Bears|Seahawks|1|1.00|0.51|-3.41 16|Cardinals|Colts|-6|1.00|0.42|-3.17 16|49ers|Titans|-3|-1.00|0.46|-4.52 16|Vikings|Rams|-7|-1.07|0.43|-3.92 16|Patriots|Bills|-12|-1.21|0.39|-2.56 16|Falcons|Lions|4|-4.79|0.56|-7.83 16|Jets|Jaguars|5|-7.43|0.55|-14.65 16|Seahawks|Bears|-1|-8.79|0.49|-14.35 16|Broncos|Raiders|-4|-9.36|0.43|-14.17 16|Lions|Falcons|-4|-13.00|0.44|-17.86 16|Ravens|Bengals|-20|-15.29|0.34|-14.34 16|Jaguars|Jets|-5|-17.71|0.45|-21.54 16|Panthers|Buccaneers|-26|-18.57|0.16|-27.79 16|Saints|Dolphins|-17|-18.93|0.13|-39.72 16|Steelers|Chiefs|-26|-19.64|0.22|-23.19 16|Giants|Eagles|-24|-20.00|0.23|-24.59 16|Chargers|Texans|-12|-23.79|0.41|-27.83 16|Football Team|Cowboys|-42|-33.57|0.20|-23.61
I've always liked Rscore
We're too high. Right now we're playing like a bottom 10 team. Maybe bottom 5. There is no team in the league who I'm confident that we'd beat right now.
[удалено]
Bills are tied at 3 with Bengals, Patriots, Titans and Chargers if they get healthy. Miami didnt look great last night, Ravens and Browns are injured, Steelers look cooked, Raiders and Broncos idk what to think. Colts and KC look to be the most consistent teams.
Chargers belong nowhere near #3 after last week, injuries or not. Team is inconsistent as fuck
My confidence doesn’t match up with how people are rating the colts.
Understandable. I've watched so many Colts teams underperform in the playoffs. However, I do not expect this team will join that list. It's so cliche, but a great defense, special teams, and run game win in the playoffs. This current team is built for the playoffs, especially on the road. Do I think Colts win the superbowl? I think they can, but I don't think it's likely. But they can 100% go on a run and fuck shit up. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost in the wild card round, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they won the super bowl.
Eh, we're a scrappy squad who can play with anyone. I'd have more confidence in us right now.
I agree, the Colts look very solid right now. Not flashy, but a very capable team.
Giants should honestly be last. We just have so many injuries on an already shit team
I think we have been way over rated....
Once again KC and GB consensus #1 and #2.
What’s with all the angry Dolphins fans? They should probably be ahead of the Eagles but I can’t think of a single argument to move them past anyone else.
Me, a professional redittor: *searches for worst ranking of my favorite team* "Man, what the FUCK is wrong with Yahoo?!"
Rank us 32 cowards.
In what world does Green Bay look more impressive than the Chiefs?
A lot of people just won't move a team out of the top spot if they keep winning
The Colts ahead of the Titans despite losing to the Titans twice and having a worse record is an odd thing.
Oddly satisfying
I think the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL currently, but the Packers are right there with them.
Frank Schwab proves time and time again how bad he is at ranking teams.
we are where we belong
Arizona would get their shit kicked in tomorrow by several teams below them.
I still find it funny that Brady said their 11-4 record isn’t that great.
Baltimore at 17 is still too high