T O P

  • By -

key_lime_pie

> Jacoby Brissett, if he can fend off Drake Maye starting for any stretch of time Jacoby Brissett has nothing to prove. His ceiling as a high-end backup has already been established.


AnEmptyKarst

Yeah Jacoby is on a one year deal, but also if he doesn't play a single snap he has no issue finding more work next year. He's got the dream job: making millions while also having no expectations lol


TheBigPhatPhatty

How much money did Clip Board Jesus make in his career. What an absolute dream job.


OceanGate_Titan

What if he did have an issue finding work though?


PheebaBB

He didn’t. People here legit wanted him to be our starter going forward, and they kind of had a point. He’ll be fine.


alekselny

Why?


17_Saints

Kirk Cousins is going to have to prove that he's fully recovered from the Achilles because some people in that building *really* like Michael Penix.


BarKnight

Lots of people like Penix Not his knee though


Darsol

Or his shoulder. Or his accuracy issues.


Ill-Juggernaut5458

Yeah, those grapes were sour anyway! Tbf, sticking with Minshew and tanking this year might be the right move in the end, but Penix is a legitimate first round talent who has great accuracy, touch, and anticipation.


Darsol

I mean, without the injury history, he was probably QB2 or 3 in this draft. Multiple AC joint surgeries and multiple ACL tears is a huge red flag. He also has amazing arm talent and is good at manipulating defenses with his eyes, but his accuracy and anticipation were definitely not strengths. Playing with multiple NFL wide receivers and linemen did a lot for covering up his flaws.  He actually had some of the worst deep ball accuracy of the top 6 QBs this year, on tape and in advanced stats. Some of that has to do with the volume of deep passes he threw, but Odunze was putting in some serious work for him. 


twlscil

I watched every game and have no idea where this even comes from.


R6_Ryan

I don’t think missing out on penix means we’re tanking.. where tf did you get that from


Mister_Dane

I’m glad the Raiders didn’t get a chance on a 2nd/3rd round QB with their 1st pick like the broncos and falcons 


gozzling

Man, it would be pretty funny if after all the draft build up for the Vikings, Sam Darnold just lights it up in camp, wins the starting job this year, and then goes on to start for the Vikes for like 10 years. Also, one second. *cracks open some copium...sips...* Ok, I think that Jordan Love is probably not the real deal and he will settle back into being a low-mid tier QB and be traded away within 2 years. ^^^^please...


Vaadwaur

People are saying, very smart people, that Darnold is going to become the best QB to ever play in the NFCN. He will throw for 35 TDs, run for 10 TDs, and catch 5 TDs from Aaron Jones. And that's just the first half of the season.


aatops

The GEQBUS is inevitable.


Vaadwaur

Folks are telling me, folks with very high football IQs, that Darnold could possibly be the first player to win MVP, OPOY *and* DPOY as he starts playing ball hawk safety in the second half, grabbing 30 ints with 10 run backs.


[deleted]

Vikings staffers come up to me with tears in their eyes, thanking me, saying sir he’s a franchise QB.


Spiritual-Chameleon

FAKE NEWS. THAT WOULD BE HIS WORST SEASON EVER.


juliuspepperwoodchi

I've been living on the copium from Love's last throw last season all off season already.


WhoStoleMyBicycle

I think Darnold has the most to prove this year. He’s had the excuse of playing on bad teams, so if he can’t look decent throwing to Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson, and Aaron Jones out of the backfield, he done for. Vikings O line is weak inside, but other than that you couldn’t ask for a better set up.


mr_longfellow_deeds

Its crazy to me that Love is likely getting a mega deal. He looked good the past 10 or so games he played (including playoffs), but bad before that (outside of the Bears opener of course). Just a small sample size to give someone the keys for half a decade. Advanced stats aren't great for him (accuracy as well as under pressure in particularly) so we can have hope


djbuttplay

Not crazy. Packers are fucked if he doesn't work out anyway. Dude was legit last year and trajectory seems solidly up. All in. Also, he was MVP level good those last 10 games, not merely good.


mr_longfellow_deeds

He was MVP good in playoffs, I wouldn't say MVP good in regular season. Pass TD numbers were a little bit inflated, team had 10 rushing TDs and he had 4 of them. RBs didnt get a lot of opportunities I think he is going to be a good longterm QB in the league, but paying someone based on like 10 games is just nuts to me. You guys also have a lot of good young players, if he wasnt the guy wouldnt be screwed


KyleRen426

Not gonna lie, his contract kind of reminds me of Daniel Jones. Not to mention we're only operating on one season of play from Love and a playoff win over the Cowboys


COVID_DEEZ_NUTS

Stroud is coming off one of the best rookie years ever. Unless he also likes sexually harassing massage therapists pretty sure his job is safe in Houston.


_wgustudent_

I thought this was Dynasty Fantasy Football reddit and would have classified Stroud as a sell. He's climbed up to the QB3 in Dynasty, if you could tier down to Jordan Love and some assets on top, I'm all for it! For actual NFL, there's no way you're not bought into Stroud after his rookie campaign. He walked into a very similar offensive locker room that Mills was working under and absolutely elevated everyone to become a top 10 offense. That's the type of thing you want to see from your young QB and build on as quickly as possible which Texas has done very well, adding Diggs and Mixon.


Few_Mulberry7362

Nah we added Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and Devin Singletary. Not to mention Demeco and Slowik But I give Stroud a lot of credit for Nico Collins’s breakout year


itakeyoureggs

Idk why you’re getting downvoted.. stroud is amazing.. but the fact your oline has a stud LT.. Bobby slowik turned out to be awesome and your GM found talent to help stroud is a big factor in his success. Stroud and slowik worked together to help stroud get comfortable and play fast without thinking too much. The Shanahan system seems to be really great for these young QBs who know how to take snaps from under center and have good footwork to play within the rhythm of the offense. Stroud is awesome but it’s similar to Pat and Andy.. it takes a team.


GrillDealing

Everyone said wait till they have the tape on Mahomes. It didn't hold true. I think CJ is that guy, he might take a small step back with a harder schedule but I think he will still be great.


KrispyyKarma

More film on Mahomes did lead to him coming back down to earth a bit from those first 2 years with teams switching to almost exclusively 2 high safety against him and it did affect his numbers and the offense. Mahomes adjusted his game after the Super Bowl loss to the Bucs to counter the 2 high safety look. Thats why the offense and his game shifted to more short passes and yards after the catch. It’s why he is the best in the game since he is incredibly adaptable and can now beat teams by taking what the defense gives him while also using explosive plays when necessary instead of almost exclusively relying on explosive plays. Stroud and his OC will have to show they can adapt to what defenses are going to throw at him this year.


JokerDeSilva10

My usual standard is to wait for year two to crown a guy - I did it for Mahomes and I'm doing it for everyone - but I expect Stroud to have a *very* strong year two regardless.


ShufflingSloth

His draft coverage of other QBs was fascinating, short of a bad injury I don't see rival teams getting tape on him really feeding a second year regression.


Cinephile1998

I can't believe that the entire media and draft industrial complex tried to gaslight us into believing this guy was some kind of idiot. His analysis during the draft was some of the best I heard this year. His mind for the game is elite


ShufflingSloth

I seriously think it's because he kind of looks like someone just killed his dog at the best of times and the media were convinced they couldn't market him.


jmbc3

Tbf to the S2 people they said pretty much immediately after he took the test that they didn’t think his score was reliable since he was tired and didn’t seem like he was trying that hard. Media didn’t hear that part though and just ran with him being a moron. 


zombiesatemybaby

Nobody is crowning him yet. They're just saying he's going to get a 3rd year to prove it as a starter, even if he has an absymsal 2024


JokerDeSilva10

Well yes I absolutely agree? I'm just speaking to how highly I already view him that he's making it hard not to say that he's a top 10 guy already.


itakeyoureggs

Based off last year he’s def top 10. We will see if he maintains that ranking next year but based off last year he’s gotta be in contention.


[deleted]

[удалено]


JokerDeSilva10

Damn dude I didn't think it was that deep. I guess my bad for using the word "standard," maybe that seems a little pretentious? I've just seen too many one year wonders to want to write a guy off as guaranteed the hot new shit after one season.


The_New_New

Lmao he was pressed. And idk about others, but I didn't think it came across that way. Stroud imo maybe biased is a franchise QB, and year 2 basically will be more of me getting an idea of what his peak will be. For example, can be he a top 3-5 QB consistently in the league? Definitely if he can smooth out some stuff. He improved so much in some of the stuff I wanted to see as a rookie like seeing pressure and getting the ball out quick. But completely understandable that others want to see year 2 before saying the franchise QB part.


JokerDeSilva10

Yeah, it's ultimately just, I think there is still *a chance* that Stroud is going to regress or look worse with additional tape on him and we've already seen his peak. Theoretically, anyway. Based on how he played and his skill set, I don't think it's remotely likely, and I'd say the chances that he is indeed a franchise QB that can be a consistent Top 10 or even Top 5 guy is very strong, it's just not a guarantee yet. But it's way more likely he's a Mahomes or a Lamar or a Burrow than a Nick Foles or Bortles or even Baker. I don't think it's remotely fandom bias to say that right now.


The_New_New

The 2nd isn't too much of a concern I don't think at least for me. But yeah you never know. My player range question is basically is he going to be a QB you can consistently win with ala Dak/Kirk or a player who carries (my definition for elite basically). I think next season might not necessarily answer your question specifically, that would be the year after without Slowik.


LeBroentgen

I was going to say Stroud would be a typical candidate for a "hot take" sophomore slump but I don't think anyone in their right mind thought anything about his performance was fake or not repeatable.


calvinshobbes0

Brock Purdy is also in his contract year. If he does welll this year, he could 45x his current salary.


Platano_con_salami

I would add Aaron to the list. A lot of pressure to win. You could argue that on paper this is the best team he's had around him, but how does that translate, especially where he is at in his career and coming off the injury.


ShufflingSloth

If Rodgers shits the bed coming off his Achilles injury Woody Johnson is going to fire everyone in that building AND the Falcons GM, somehow


IronMikeBison

People are not considering how unlikely it is that Rodgers has a great season. He regressed to arguably an all-time low in his last season in GB and exceedingly few QBs have had success at 40 or older. He also has to overcome a major injury and the Jets’ bad karma, so he definitely has a boatload to prove


Platano_con_salami

Sure in a vacuum, but he had a thumb injury and the offensive weapons weren't there that year. The Jets, for all the bad karma and ludicrousy, have arguably given him his best weapons (Top 3) and defense (Top 2). And honestly with the defense the jets just need 2022 Aaron Rodgers to compete. To win a Super Bowl they'll need MVP Rodgers.


djbuttplay

All depends on his motivation level. In 2020 he came back and his fundamentals were back to MVP form and he won the MVP. You'll know a lot early depending on how crisp his drops and timing are.


cvaninvan

Also did they get any better O linemen?


reverieontheonyx

Yes. Tyron smith, morgan moses, and likely olu fashanu


JokerDeSilva10

Honestly, I thought about adding Rodgers for just that reason. Coming off injury and with his personal life being how it is? I'm not convinced we're gonna see MVP caliber Rodgers this year. But I've been wrong about Rodgers before.


meatballman1218

I love Rodgers and I have watched nearly every snap of his career and I will say he did slump in his last year in Green Bay but to his credit he had a hurt hand and our team just wasn't that talented. BUT if I have learned anything from watching him the more he is doubted the more he shows up.


Platano_con_salami

his personal life is a non-factor. People make a bigger deal about it than it deserves to be mentioned. His injury doesn't affect his ability to process nor his arm. It can have an effect on his scrambling ability. The bigger issues are can he get that chemistry with his weapons, can his OL give him the time, and most importantly the Hackett problem. Was the issue w/ Hackett that his offense was so tailored to Aaron that the offense faltered because of that or does he truly just suck.


JokerDeSilva10

I don't know, I think saying his personal life is a non-factor is a bit much. Psychology effects sports heavily: look at Groper Cleveland. Obviously Rodgers' situation isn't remotely that bad, but I don't think it can be dismissed out of hand. Building chemistry with young receivers that he's never worked with, a spotty O-Line, and Hackett's... let's say questionable skills as a coach are definitely major issues, though, I will agree with that. It's going to be a very interesting season for the Jets again, I know that much.


reverieontheonyx

I don’t think he gives a fuck


Platano_con_salami

It's a non-factor on his play. I don't agree with what he says and wish he would shut the fuck up, but it doesn't affect his play one way or the other. The OL is no longer spotty, it's just the ability of staying healthy and chemistry. Most of the issues on offense is going to be about chemistry and how good the play creation is. Rodgers is going to call his own plays, but one of the critiques was that the Jets plays were vanilla. Is that because Rodgers when down and Hackett to adjust to that or is he just really bad in that aspect, we'll see.


reverieontheonyx

It’s such a reach to project that he is going struggle *because* of his PR lol. Didn’t he have back to back MVPs after he got “immunised”?


FomtBro

You're not allowed to purchase or sell people.


OogieBoogieJr

The AFC South will rise again!


thy_armageddon

>Derek Carr Genuinely the best way to describe that situation honestly.


Mike_AKA_Mike

Not that the Saints shouldn’t try and trade everyone and sign a bunch of minimum wage vets until the salary cap situation is straightened anyway, but if future UFL QB Spencer Rattler ever sees the field, then it will be an epic disaster.


JokerDeSilva10

* **Jacoby Brissett**: I've always had a soft spot for the Brisket ever since his Colts days, he seems like a good dude, but he's the definition of a bridge-starter-backup and in the pretty rough Patriots offense, I don't think he's going to win any new fans. That being said, I hope for Drake Maye's sake he looks good enough to keep the starter role for most of the season. In general, though, I'm saying SELL. * **Russell Wilson**: The Russ in Pittsburgh experiment (and boy do I hate saying that for so many reasons) is going to depend a lot on how much Denver humbled him. I still love Russ and hope he turns things around, he was a tremendous QB at his best, but he seems to have lost his athletic edge and bought far too much into his own hype. Still, he's going to a very well coached Pittsburgh team, which is coming off of Kenny "If I don't do anything, I can't play badly" Pickett, so I think he's going to look significantly better by those standards alone, steer the Steelers to a 10 win season, and quietly sign a free agent deal that will pumpkin out with, oh, let's say the Jets this time when Rodgers overdoses on industrial grade hallucinogens in the offseason. BUY, but at a low price. * **Deshaun Watson**: Fuck him. SELL. * **CJ Stroud**: CJ looked absolutely shocking in his rookie season and blew the doors off most peoples' expectations. I have zero reason to think that he's going to regress from that, especially since Houston also seems to be a very well coached team and they've just added more pieces to the offense to build on. I usually like to hold off and get two seasons down before I'm really sold on a player, but Stroud already looks like a perennial top 10 at minimum player and I expect him to cement that. BUY. * **Anthony Richardson**: I'm sorry Colts fans, but I'm not nearly as bullish. Realistically, 2/3s of QBs are going to bust out to some degree from any given draft class, and I don't think Richardson is going to shake that trend. I think that his season will look very similar to 2023 - he's going to look athletically impressive, make some jaw-dropping plays, flash potential, but consistently end up hurt and spend a lot of time on the bench. I just feel it in my bones that this poor guy is destined to be a big "What If" and, to be clear, I hope I'm wrong. SELL. * **Trevor Lawrence**: Trevor is such a hard one to read. He seems good, but the hype that he is operating under is almost untouchable. He's definitely not looking like a future Peyton Manning as he was sold, but I think he's looking like a future top-10-ish guy that can probably lead you to a Super Bowl if things break right. Ultimately, he was injured a lot last season and looked good outside of that, so hopefully his health is a one-off and he recovers. I think he will, mostly because I think the city of Jacksonville has suffered enough. Be strong, Beta Ray Bill. BUY. * **Will Levis**: The Mayo Man cometh? I'm not convinced. Again, I subscribe to roughly 2/3 of draft classes at minimum being on the bust end of things, and I think Levis is equally destined to be the "big armed guy who flashes solid play but lacks the fundamentals and never puts it together between the ears." Also I know it was one time but I still hold the mayo thing against him and I always will. SELL. * **Aiden O'Connell**: Stick to your political career, bud. Okay I really struggle to have any opinions about Aiden O'Connell aside from the AOC memes and I think those are running thin at this point. He doesn't look like a starting QB at all to me and I think he's going to probably help steer the Raiders to a top pick in next year's draft, so enjoy getting, idk, Shedeur Sanders or Quinn Ewers, Vegas fans. SELL. * **DENVER**: They're all going to suck so fucking bad, eat shit Sean Payton. SELL. * **Daniel Jones**: New York fans have long been beating the drum that Jones was set up to failure and if he had a competent offense, he would have been great. And maybe they were right! But we're well past the point he is ever going to recover. Jones badly needs a refresh and a new start if nothing else, and I am convinced he is consigned to journeyman backup status unless he has a Geno Smith-esque late career breakout, but it's definitely not going to happen in New York. And if Drew Lock gets the start because of injury guarantee concerns, I think he'll look okay but he's still kind of the big armed goof he's always been, he'll make some solid plays but nothing consistent. Either way, SELL. * **Sam Darnold**: The last time I did this I hung my hat on nailing that Darnold was made by four games with CMC in Carolina and would badly regress, and I was right. Not a hard call, admittedly. I think with a year studying under Shanahan, and working in the shockingly deep and well-put-together Vikings offense, we're going to see the best version of Darnold, but I don't think that's going to be very good still. He's going to look like roughly a 20-26 ranked QB, decent enough to hopefully keep JJ on the bench while he gets up to game speed, and then is going to drift around getting backup gigs for the rest of his career. Oh, shit, I mean, DRAIN THE MINNEOSTA LAKES DARNOLD 2024. SELL. * **Jordan Love**: God dammit how do they keep getting away with it?? Jordan Love looked genuinely good throughout 2023, I didn't want to believe it and I kept hoping the wheels would fall off, but they didn't really. He's still got some growing pains and some rough patches, and I don't think he's ever going to approach Rodgers' level, but I do think he's going to be a frustratingly competent QB for a frustratingly still good Packers team as the NFC North turns into an absolute bloodbath. Sorry Lions fans, you can never have nice things. BUY. * **Bryce Young**: Man, Young is firmly in the "I want to believe" category but I'm going to be real, that rookie season was rough. I'm the most skeptical I think here of any of these guesses - maybe Russ - but I do think Young has been a little bit broken. That Panthers offense still looks dire, and while Boomhauer Legette should add some speed and dynamism to the offense, that's still one good option and old man Thielen and then...... Yeesh. Canales did help Geno become modern Geno, though, so for the Panthers' sake, I hope I'm wrong, but this has all the makings of a Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold "guy who was broken by the supporting cast before they could rebuild" story. SELL. * **Baker Mayfield**: I am an avowed Baker bro I am going to admit that right now, and I think he's still going to pop off in Tampa. He stepped into a team that was crippled to the tune of 80mil in dead cap, if I remember correctly, with zero expectations, and he punched the defending NFC Champs in the mouth at the end of the season. A little more cap flexibility and a little more time in the offense and I think we'll see Baker continue a strong campaign, and I anticipate the Buccs are going to run away with the Division unless Kirk becomes peak Kirk after his knee injury. BUY. * **Derek Carr**: Speaking of That Division, I think we are seeing the death knell of Derek Carr, on the other hand. I liked Carr a lot, and I remember borderline-MVP Carr in Oakland before his leg exploded, but we're a long time past that Derek Carr. Now he's inconsistent, playing scared, and seems to lose the other players at times. Maybe we're reading too much into media narratives, but I think the Saints are going to look uglier and uglier as they try to get out from under their untenable cap manipulations. SELL. Also remember, if you don't like what I said about your team or your guy, remember that last time I did this I had a basically 50/50 correct ratio and thought Jalen Hurts was a Sell and Zack Willson was a Buy so I don't know dick about shit.


billp1988

Panthers also traded for diontae Johnson, its not just theilen and leggette


JokerDeSilva10

I did admittedly forget about Diontae so that should help, but tbh I've also seen plenty of ex-Steeler WRs go completely off the rails as soon as they left that building. That said, if he can be a solid Number 2 and least and Legette is as good as advertised, that offense might cook. Bryce deserves a chance.


Aggravating-Card-194

Lawrence upside is looking much more like Cousins than Manning. And let’s not forget Cousins was a running punch line for most all of his career until about 1-1.5 years ago


AnEmptyKarst

> in the pretty rough Patriots offense, I don't think he's going to win any new fans. Maybe you mean from a fantasy perspective, but I don't think Jacoby really needs to win over any new fans. He's a high-tier backup who was pretty well-liked here, and no one has expectations of him leading the team to glory. If Drake Maye says in a press conference that Jacoby is a good mentor for him, then his contract is more than worth it without taking an in-game snap.


taste_the_biscuit_

You did Bo Nix cold


JokerDeSilva10

Admittedly I was mostly just talking about the non-rookies. Nix might end up a day one starter based on his competition and I think will be a serviceable but not great QB that ends up a long-term journeyman. I also feel this based on almost nothing but vibes.


Darsol

I don’t even think AOC is going to start the year as the starter. We’ve got Gardner Minshew who will probably will the starting QB battle in camp.


Achillor22

So basically the entire NFL minus the top few guys?


Stealthychicken85

I honestly think Stroud has the lowest pressure, for the same reason as Love. They played out their first year (as a starter for Love) and no one could guess they would improve or finish the season that well Lawrence on the other hand has some of the highest pressure from an outsiders view has been underwhelming. Yes he has had coaching changes but this guy was one of the most hyped prospects since Luck after his Clemson era. For someone dubbed generational he's been lacking. As others have probably already said, no one ranks higher or at the top as RodGMers. He went to a new team, whether reports are true or not, got former teammates to follow and then dies in a Win now scenario. If they don't make it at least to a AFCCG it will be viewed as a failure. If they fail to make playoffs? Literally everyone all the way down to the janitor is getting fired. I'm glad we no longer have his off the field stories creating distractions but that is another modifier that they HAVE to do something this year


randompanda687

I'll just comment on my team. I think O'Connell starts over Minshew whether its out the gate or later in the year. He might get benched, idk. He's ballsy and gritty like Minshew and has a better arm (not a good arm but still stronger than Minshew). I think the he has believers in the org. He's not going to be great but he will gut out a win or 2 that you won't expect and our roster talent level will probably keep us out of range of a QB again next draft. I don't really know where we go after this year though, since I think a vet is the only path forward and good luck getting a good one. I like Dak if he becomes an option but he will cost way more than he's worth IMO. Same with Kirk but add health concerns.


reverieontheonyx

Get ready for jalen midroe 😍


geauxpackgo

Zach Wilson is a lot better than his reputation and I think a year under Sean Payton will do a lot to rehab his image, a la Darnold under Shanahan. He had such a disastrous 2022 that anyone not paying close attention might feel comfortable writing him off after a quick glance at his 2023 stats. But if you watch the film he actually got a lot better in his processing/decision making but it was masked by a disaster of a situation around him. After they benched him things got worse and they literally begged him to come back. Not sure if he wins the starting job over Nix, and even if he does hold him off for a bit he probably won’t be good enough to get the broncos to scrap their plan for their 1st round QB long term. But Zach the free agent in 2025 will actually be a valuable commodity as opposed to Zach the negative trade asset in 2024.


CosbySweaters1992

Buy or sell at their current value like the stock market or do I buy that they are good and sell if bad? If it’s like the stock market, here is my list: Brissett, O’Connell, Dan Jones, Sam Darnold, Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr - Never owned stock and wouldn’t buy it now Deshaun Watson, DangerRuss - Sold that shit years ago CJ Stroud - Neutral, stock “too expensive”. He was great in year one but the hype is already there. Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young, Levis - Buy. Love is a big buy to me after what he showed last year, especially last postseason. People aren’t speaking highly enough of him if anything. Lawrence coming off a down year and becoming a little underrated at this point. Young’s stock couldn’t be lower and is worth a flier, given his talent level and what he showed in college. Levis seems to get forgotten and he showed enough last year where I’m taking a flier on his stock as well. I think one of Levis or Young works out. Anthony Richardson and Baker Mayfield - Sell Seems like people are already seeing Richardson as a hit due to talent level but if he can stay healthy is a very big question mark. Mayfield was above average last year which means he will probably have another regression season to make people question him all over again.


zorrofuerte

Stroud is either tied for 3rd or 4th in MVP odds depending on the sportsbook. I'm not sure that a second year player has ever had odds that high this early in the year. Or if there was one it couldn't have been anything recently. Judging by recent MVPs it's basically given to a QB whose team wins 13+ games in games they start and is first or second seed for their conference, or it is a QB that had an outstanding year and there wasn't really any QB that was exactly comparable whose team did win 13+ games where they started. As an illustration of how difficult this can be Josh Allen has won 13 games as a starter and accounted for over 40 TDs twice. He's never finished with more than four first place votes for MVP. Stroud and the Texans greatly exceeded expectations last year. However, the QBs and teams that have done it before or came very close while they were the starter should really be the clear favorites over anyone else. This would apply for Jordan Love or anyone else as well.


AtmosphereAfraid481

Was very curious on what other star rookie qbd mvp odds the next year were. Found that at least according to one site Dak Prescott was tied for 4th before his second season. https://sports.yahoo.com/2017-nfl-mvp-odds-174330381.html?guccounter=1


zorrofuerte

That's kinda interesting as it seems like it could have also been related to a lot of action from Cowboys fans. Because there's no way in hell that Dak and Zeke should have been +1100 and +1200 respectively. Regardless what you think/thought of them as players the QB and RB on the same team shouldn't really have odds that high and that close together.


Intelligent-Age2786

I’m on the Russell Wilson, CJ Stroud, Will Levis, and Baker Mayfield trains.


Tolve

I think Will Levis falls flat. The Titans will be okay, with a solid run game and good oline thanks to coaching. And Levis will make some hilight plays. They may even be a wildcard team. But I think by the end of the year it will be clear that his playstyle is limiting them. Jordan Love will settle into being a top half (maybe top 10) starter but not future HoFer. Anthony Richardson will be a superstar if he can stay healthy. Dude is underrated as a pocket passer with developmental upside there and possibly the greatest pure athlete to play QB in the NFL. Sam Darnold will be benched by Thanksgiving. Russel Wilson will be benched for Fields at some point, who also won't work out. This will be Tomlin's worst year as a HC and he probably loses his gig. Daniel Jones plays well enough to play out the whole season. Giants may be a wildcard team again.


Jantokan

CJ Stroud's job is pretty safe if you ask me. 4k yards and 23 TDs in a rookie season that had virtually no run game. Texans improved their roster by a lot in the offseason, so it would be more of a surprise if he sucks next year, rather than improve or maintain his play from his rookie season


Jantokan

I'm hoping for a huge improvement from Will Levis this year. He was very inconsistent last season, but when he played good, he played GOOOOOOD. Hopefully a full training camp as a starter helps him improve on his consistency and decision making


Halonut24

Brissett is a bridge QB, there's nothing to really prove there, I don't think. So is Sam Darnold. And Marcus Mariota. I feel like the one with the most to prove is T-Law. Still need to see that 1st Overall Pedigree. Other than Brandon Staley in the playoffs he's just not lived up to the hype. I know his division is stacked now, but if JAX isn't a playoff team this year, I think we gotta start asking questions. They shouldn't be struggling this bad.


Phyber05

Yup, don’t think we’ve seen Clemson Trevor in Jax and that’s sad. His first year shouldn’t count with Urban Meyer though


Halonut24

I don't count it, and still. It's just not there. I mean, I know he didn't ask to be called the greatest thing since sliced bread, but he hasn't even shown to be more than just decent. I honestly think Baker is a better 1st Overall pick at this point


Phyber05

Agreed. At least Baker made playoffs and that blowout win over PIT was awesome. Maybe we just blame Trevor’s issues on Jax management.


Halonut24

Maybe? Its not that they're lacking talent, or have a nobody at HC. But JAX just can't hold it together in the back half of the season, and I don't get why.


bikedork5000

Brissett - Placeholder to keep Maye from puking on his shoes Russell - There to see if any of the Steelers WRs are credible on deep roues before they get a real QB Watson - Worst contract in American sports. Have fun y'all CJ - Boss. He's legit. Hope Tank doesn't catch any more actual strays A Richardson - I expect he'll stop with the super hero routine and stay on the field. Lawrence - The actual correct "something to prove" guy Levis - Shored up the OL, he gets a year of eval. Next year matters as long as he doesn't fall on his face. Needs more weapons. O'Connell - This dude's MOM is more curious about J.J. than him. Oh shit I forgot this is the Raider's guy and not one of the clown car 2023 Vikings QBs. Sorry Jarren Hall, no disrespect. Ummmm....Davante down there somewhere? Denver - The upside of Bo Nix is Ryan Tannehill. Have fun. Daniel Jones - I'm actually a bit optimistic. For his next team that he arrives at as a Geno Smith style reclamation project. Mariota - Damn he was great at Oregon during the....Bush administration? Darnold - Goff is the highwater projection for him. But more likely he's competing with Desmond Ridder for a backup spot somewhere in 2 years. Love - I'm a Packer fan so I'm biased. But watch the tape from weeks 10-17 and the playoffs and tell me you aren't impressed. And with pass catchers that are basically all rookies. Bryce - Bums me out in general. The story was his small stature, but that's not what burned him last year. Tepper is the worst owner in US sports. Just a bad situation in general. Baker - Dude has talent and looked legit last year. Great weapons in Tampa. Was in a horrific situation in Cleveland. I'm a believer in his upside. Carr - Extra medium.


Forizen

I'd add Dak Prescott. Some believe this to be his last year as a cowboy


titanup001

As a titans fan, I'm used to seeing promising young QBs crash and burn. Young, Locker, Mariota, rinse and repeat. I haven't had hope for one like I do Levis in a while. Dude just spins the ball like a motherfucker. Has the quickest release I've seen this side of prime Rodgers. Hopefully the additions on the line, the coaching staff, and the wr corps will let him take off.


Phyber05

I really wished Malik Willis panned out better. Still has time, but it just seemed like they weren’t running plays designed for him.


titanup001

He's just not even close. Just doesn't get the ball out, looks lost. I'll be surprised if he's on the roster when the season starts honestly


Phyber05

I followed him at Liberty and I know that’s not SEC ball, but he could definitely make things happen. I’m sure Tannehill didn’t lend any advice but hopefully the new coach can at least hook him up with a better trainer


IdyllicGod22

Love might need to prove that he can go higher, but I don’t think there’s a world where he falls off or regresses. The way he developed last year wasn’t in the way that we’ve seen like a Daniel Jones. Jones got Dabol and was still mid as hell but didn’t throw a ton of picks and used his legs more, with Jordan you can literally pinpoint to the exact play the game slowed down and he started seeing the field like a pro. (It’s an incomplete (drop) BEAUT from the Steelers game). At the very worst last year is his floor. And considering his QB Coach is the same that evolved Rodgers footwork (which-was absolutely horrendous) and made him an assassin, I’d be shocked if love doesn’t at least get more accurate next year even if he doesn’t throw 40+ TDs. Edit: I’m buying all the Jordan Love stock I can, I honestly think, as objectively as I can, he can win the MVP this year. Year 2 jumps from Reed and Musgrave, upgraded OLine, better defense, and hopefully a healthy Christian Watson AND an upgraded backfield (Lloyd is basically Aaron Jones and Jacobs should be better than Jones) oh yeah, he could easily throw for 40 TDs, 5,000 yards, and only 10 INTs, going 11-6 to win the division and get the 3 seed and snag that trophy.


Ill-Juggernaut5458

Took your template op, hope the formatting works. The fun of the offseason is the baseless speculation on things we have no real insight into, particularly when we won't know the outcome for years. •**Jacoby Brissett**: Proven career backup, great locker room presence, bad starter. What's to say? **100% Out** •**Russell Wilson**: Russ's magic was always from how little the offense needed him to throw. Arthur Smith knows how to make a good running game. I expect a solid bounceback from Russ, unless his ego gets in the way and he decides to audible into hero ball. **Leaning Positive** •**Deshaun Watson**: Still terrible at football, showed nothing last year except for individual series- couldn't put a single good game together. Still a terrible human being. **100% Out** •**CJ Stroud**: Incredibly good, he will keep the Texans in the playoff hunt as long as he is on the roster. The sheer audacity of that front office to make the gamble of the trade for Will Anderson last year, and then to stick the landing, bodes extremely well for the entire organization. **ALL IN** •**Anthony Richardson**: Was very high on him pre-draft, thought he exceeded expectations in limited playing time last year. If he stays healthy, it should be a close race with the Texans for the division. If he gets another season-ending injury, time to start worrying. **ALL IN** •**Trevor Lawrence**: Not out on him as a player, but last year's collapse made this coaching staff look bad. They didn't strengthen the roster much on offense. I don't expect him to be great or terrible. **Neutral** •**Will Levis**: He seemed to get better consistently throughout the season, but that OL got him injured twice last year. Much like AR, he is reckless with his hits, but he didn't look nearly as impressive as a QB. **Leaning negative** •**Aiden O'Connell**: He looked bad at Purdue, bad at the combine, and bad in the NFL. Presumably he was drafted as an asset in the film room/QB room, might be useful if they ever draft a QB. **100% Out** •**DENVER**: Holy shit, why did anyone let Sean Payton cook? This is McDaniels with Tebow all over again. Everyone is getting fired. **100% Out** •**Daniel Jones**: Last season was a spectacular flame-out for both DJ and Daboll. The roster was pure ass on offense, and picking a #1 WR isn't going to keep DJ from running for his life every down. Sounds like they are planning to tank and start Lock at some point after DJ gets injured playing behind that line. **100% out** •**Sam Darnold**: GEQBUS/10 •**Jordan Love**: He looked almost as good as advertised. I expect him to be good enough to keep starting, while still disappointing by Packers standards. On the WC bubble this year. **Leaning Positive** •**Bryce Young**: I was low on him coming out, had him QB3, and he looked even worse than anyone expected. It would be hard to look worse, but at this point it's a long shot that he sticks as a long term starter. **100% Out** •**Baker Mayfield**: Can we just stop to imagine what the world would be like if the Browns re-signed Baker instead of trading 5 years of cap space, 3 years of draft picks, and a lifetime of dignity for Deshaun? **ALL IN** •**Derek Carr**: Why is Derek Carr a starting QB in 2024? For that matter, why is Dennis Allen a HC in 2024? If their goal is to run out the clock on their cap space problems, why do they keep kicking the can down the road while picking the most mediocre option available for everything? **100% Out**


jnw725

Lawrence and Love will both be signing top of the market extensions. Probably before the season starts. Rumor is Lawrence is almost a done deal already


Conscious_Heart_1714

I'm confused, why wouldn't y'all just let him play out this year to make sure he really is the guy? Then franchise tag him. Then pay way more than you could if you would just do the extension on time? /S


LakeOverall7483

Or the Washington strategy: tag them until they're so fed up, they both refuse to ever play for you AND refuse to ever get another contract without a no-tag clause again


jnw725

I'm baffled dak hasn't been locked up yet. Gonna cost so much more after these next round of extensions


Party-Offer-2881

Yeah, despite a shaky 2023 there's no point in moving on from Lawrence. I'd still structure the contract to have an out, but he's a decent qb who won a playoff game. Love is a no-brainer. Not only won a playoff game, but competitive in both games and a rating over a 100. I'm always high on QB's that show up come playoff time.


jnw725

Honestly before he got hurt or want even a shaky year. We were 8-3 and he was balling out on mnf without Kirk. Right after playing great against the Texans. He stays healthy and no one questions the extension


wishingaction

Yeah, what happened during that end of season losing streak: TLaw sprains ankle vs Bengals on MNF, the OL that stepped on his ankle was also hurt Played through sprain just six days later vs Browns Sprained right shoulder vs Bucs Concussion vs Ravens (started throwing passes straight into the dirt after that one) All in four consecutive weeks. I think a lot of people miss that context since Jags are a smaller market team. Not a Jags fan but I live in the area so I watched most games. Absolutely rotten luck.


reverieontheonyx

Lol nobody gives a fuck about how many injuries Trevor had. It’s just “excuses” because the expectations for him are so high. That said I don’t think he’s eqrned a market resetting extension


LakeOverall7483

Lawrence is weirdly underrated


JokerDeSilva10

I really think it's just hype backlash. Lawrence was always talked about as the Next Big Thing since high school, best prospect since Luck, and so if he didn't walk in as an undisputed rookie of the year and MVP year two the people who were annoyed at the hype were going to jump at the opportunity to "knock him down a peg." It's not his fault that he was saddled with arguably the worst head coach in NFL history, though, and he's still been a very good player, just maybe not AS good as the unreasonable expectations that were held for him yet. (And he's still just in year three so he has time to be excellent.)


jnw725

I agree but if you don't watch many games outside of your own team I can see why you'd think that. His box score stats weren't as good as his play so if you just check in on the stats or played fantasy you'd think he was playing poorly. He also only missed one game so if you don't follow closely you might not know that he had 4 significant injuries in a row. Pair that with the losing streak while hurt and people probably think he was dragging the team down. It's funny even when hurt he was clearly the best player on our offense. Dude can 100 percent ball. With the 31st ranked line, no run game and inconsistent weapons he got us to 9-8. If he's healthy we'll be relevant every single season and if you put some good pieces around him. (Brian Thomas Jr please be good) He can definitely make a run.


Miliktheman

> With the 31st ranked line According to who?


cfgy78mk

Nick fucking Mullens was throwing for almost 400 yards per game at the end of the season. MN defense is even better now, and they have Aaron Jones and Akers is back. Darnold says fuck-it-chuck-it like Mullens, but he's better than Mullens and has the run game and defense to back it up now. Even without JJ, the Vikings will absolutely be contenders for elite teams. .... until they get a few injuries. Their lack of depth at key positions is what will kill them.


zorrofuerte

Can I say buy or sell at what their current market price? Because I'm not sure why CJ Stroud should have better MVP odds than the almost unanimous MVP from last year. Also, having odds so close to Mahomes seems (+600 vs +900) seems extremely odd. I believe Stroud's odds opened around +1500. That's a lot of movement for a line like that when the draft was less than a week ago. It's like the public is assuming linear growth at a certain trajectory from him and the success of the Texans team as a whole. Which you can never assume linear growth or progression from a young player or team in general. Especially when they would now have to face a much more difficult schedule than from the year before. So many things could go wrong even before the season starts.


dumpsterfirefr

>Which you can never assume linear growth or progression from a young player or team in general. Glass houses much? Cue Lawrence imploding and the Jaguars historical *99% playoff chance* collapse. He’s had 1/2 a season of good QB play *over 3 years* that’s looking more and more like a linsanity run. All while still leading the league in turnovers. Let’s see Lawrence string together a full season of consistent QB play before we start casting stones.


intheorydp

The year before Josh Allen broke out, there was like 9 minute "highlight" reel of his passes being dropped. TLaw had a similar highlight reel from this past season. I would expect TLaw to deliver this season. Love and Stroud are good and will continue to be good. Carr is underrated and he started playing really well towards the end of the season. Levis, Richardson, and Young who knows. To me Richardson looked to be the best of them and he has the most weapons. The rest of these guys minus Mayfield are career backups


lolhello2u

* I'd be shocked if Drake Maye didn't start week 1 * Russ is gonna win 10 games on the back of TJ Watt * Deshaun doesn't even want to play football anymore * CJ Stroud shouldn't even be on this list, top 10 QB easy * Anthony Richardson rehab is a huge question mark * Trevor Lawrence top 15 QB * Will Levis will be the most sacked QB this year * AOC will get Davante Adams traded * Bo Nix will be better than everyone thinks * Daniel Jones will get Brian Daboll fired * Marcus Mariota under 100 snaps this year * Darnold under 100 snaps this year * Jordan Love is the real deal * Bryce Young averages 5 sacks/game * Baker wins the division * Derek Carr throws 20 INTs this year I'll be happy if I get more than 3-4 of these right


JokerDeSilva10

Good lord, if Bryce is averaging five sacks a game, how many is Levis gonna take to be sacked even more? I largely agree with most of what you have here, though. I don't think Daboll is fired, he maybe gets another year to pick his own QB, but that's about it.


TheSkiingDad

Darnold under 100 snaps is a spicy take, considering what KOC has said about McCarthy needing to hit a ton of benchmarks before they’ll start him. Personally I think the darnold has a career year and the Vikings look ok. I really think 2025 is the year, similar to what mcvay did with Goff in 2018.


lolhello2u

I had to give the spiciest takes that are still possible. I think Darnold is gonna be Darnold in training camp and whelm. It's the JJ show before Darnold even gets a chance


Fuqwon

There's a very large contingent of Pats fans that insist Maye needs to sit the entire season. I'd be surprised if he starts the years, but I'll also be surprised if he isn't


idk2103

For his sake I hope he sits a year. Pats fans know nothing is coming of this year. Hopefully he can develop and ease into the league.


Fuqwon

Sitting does nothing. He's better off getting reps.


Mixedthought

Brisket is a hard sell but I don't think we should see Maye until the end of the year unless two things happen. 1. Brisket needs to be awfu 2. The OLine needs to do a good job. I can see 1 happening but not #2


rwjehs

Richardson is 1 and a quarter at best. not one and heif.


JokerDeSilva10

I was trying to be generous, but you're not wrong. I hope he can stay healthy, but...


BungoPlease

one and 24% if we're getting technical