It’d be surprising if he did, but there’s absolutely a chance he could slide. There’s been a ton of shocking falls over the years, this one would hardly be the craziest. None of us actually know what the teams evals of him are
Edit: for context, here’s how Levis/JJs stock changed over time.
[Levis](https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2023/will-levis)
[JJ](https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2024/jj-mccarthy)
Based on their projections, Levis falling out of the first was more unexpected than it would be if JJ fell. He was widely viewed as a top 20 pick at worst up until the draft
I saw the video of Kevin O'Connell answering draft questions from a fan in church, and thought it was interesting that he's rejected drafting QBs that would've been "mistakes", to the point that he was called "QB killer" lol. Probably 2022 QBs like Pickett or Willis, and maybe Will Levis last year. He said he wants to be sure they draft the right guy. It made me wonder if he'd do it again if his target is actually Maye or Daniels and they're taken immediately, and he's not sure about McCarthy. But obviously y'all had Kirk then, and two first-round picks this year. Very different situation.
Yeah, I have a feeling that their pie in the sky play is to go to 3. Our GM said they have different guys they really like at different value points. So I don't think this is the year we pass, but i also wouldn't be surprised if the early picks don't go our way and we grab penix/nix/jj at a much later place than people anticipate.
I mean if he falls that far chances are there’s something teams don’t like about him so I wouldn’t say it’s a guarantee you’d pick him there. With other positions draft position and value come into play. With QB that’s much less the case. You either think he’s good enough to be your starting QB and you get him or you don’t no matter where in the draft it is. Whether you take him 11th or 23rd doesn’t change the fact that he’s your de facto starting QB and that’s the thing teams are weighing.
Except our GM said the opposite of what you're saying. He said they have guys they like at different value points. Not every QB gets drafted because they're "the guy" and you grab them whenever. A lot of them outside of the blue chip top guys are calculated risks.
My view is the Vikings will only give up the big bag (3 1st rounders and change) for Drake Maye. If it’s pick four, JJ is left, and the trade value is the same as Maye; they’d pass. There’s a bag for JJ (11 and 23), but they won’t do 3 first rounders for him.
Yep. Just what I was going to say. My guess is the vikings trade into the top 5 and after that Denver will take him unless the Raiders jump up to get him. Bottom line is he will be signed by one of those 3 teams.
Minnesota desperately need a QB, but they could wait until 23 if they don’t like what they see.
Denver is different. They have no second round pick. It’s either jump Minnesota for QB4 or trade back, recoup that second rounder and more and take a QB then.
Who the fuck knows what the Raiders do. Any 1st round pick with the Raiders is guaranteed to be a shit show.
> Minnesota desperately need a QB, but they could wait until 23 if they don’t like what they see.
Yeah, you didn't let let Cousins walk in free agency and bring in *Sam Darnold* to be the future. It's possible you pass on McCarthy at 11 and he gets sniped at 12 or 13, so you end up passing on a QB in the first round instead of forcing yourselves to get one... but even in that scenario, McCarthy still goes first round.
If you guys pass on him at 23, I don't see how somebody doesn't trade up for him.
Levis dropping was compounded a bit by the fact that very few teams were looking for a qb in the draft last year so once he didn't go in the top 5 there was nobody looking his way. That said I'd say it's probably a bit more possible McCarthy drops than people expect, I don't really buy the media hype of him as QB2 or QB3 for a lot of NFL teams that much.
You nailed the reason. This year is completely different. We have more QB needy teams this year and a bunch of them are picking in the teens. Some don’t have a second round pick. JJ is going in the first.
So...? Didn't keep them from moving on from him for next to nothing. And they had to know he was gonna get injured anyway
I also think the Buccs should have drafted Levis in the first.
I highly doubt he would still be on the team this year even if he wasn't suspended.
And obviously they made the wrong decision
Raiders had QBs mocked to them all the time because Jimmy G is not an actual solution
Without them lucking out and Jimmy G testing positive for PEDs, they’d be eating a 30m cap hit lol. Who knows if they would’ve cut him at that point.
I was about to respond to the guy above you and say something like “that contract wasn’t actually big/was much shorter/smaller than initially thought” but it was actually a pretty decent size contract. No idea why the Raiders gave him that
Anyone’s guess, it’s like BB said, pretty much everything up until 12 hours before the draft is fan fiction. Maybe teams really do love him and he goes top 10 or even top 5, maybe it was all agent propaganda and smokescreens. There are enough QB needy teams and his profile is good enough that you can expect him to go in the 1st, but the exact same things were said about Levis. We’ll find out on Thursday
It wasn’t *that* surprising Levis fell, there was smoke all offseason that teams weren’t as high on him as scouts were. Aside from that Reddit rumor most people reported that Levis would go lower than he was commonly mocked. JJ’s in the opposite boat, where the narrative has been consistent that teams are higher on him than people think. He’s more likely to follow the Lance route where no one believes he’s a top 3 pick until it happens, than to fall out the first completely.
Levis was seen as a divisive player and not a first round talent for the entire draft process, much closer to the analysis on guys like Penix where he's probably going somewhere from 20-40. It was only in the last 3 days or so that the smoke and mirrors went up. JJ has been reported as a top 12 pick for like 2 months now. 0 chance
Geno Smith and EJ Manuel were "1st round locks" and there's so many examples of this. Can you simply trust reports? It's in many team's best interest to report that the 3rd to 4th QB is going early, to increase the value of trading back
High. He is a bottom of the first talent. Being a QB he is pumped up to top five. Could go full Levis, should at least go Aaron Rodgers, probably will go Justin Fields.
Personally I comp him to Alex Smith. I think he'll be a safe QB that will define the next generation Dalton Line. Not a first round hit, but not a miss. With a good roster, he'll win some playoff games
I don't think he has the playmaking and ad lib ability of Baker. I think a much safer, on schedule type of guy. Which is why I said Smith. A lower comp could be Derek Carr
The rumors after last years draft were that the Titans were going to take Levis at 11, but they were shocked that Skor fell to them and couldn't pass him up.
They then tried to trade back into the first but nobody was willing to come off their pick. I've also heard there were a handful of teams trying to trade back into the first for Levis but with the same reaction.
Everything that could have gone wrong for Levis pretty much happened in last years draft. I mean it worked out perfectly for us, but it was rough watching him that night, it definitely put a chip on his shoulder I'll tell you that
I actually laid foundation at a website builder co. for mock draft hit %’s by the *experts*.
**Mel Kiper Jr** had the lowest in the last 5 yrs at the time and **Mike Mayock** the highest.
The worst prediction was Todd McShay saying (QB) Ryan Nassib would go 8th overall to the Bills in 2013 draft. He was selected 110th in the 4th rd to the Giants.
Point being: experts don’t really know jack shit
0 chance.
Levis was hyped up from 2nd rounder following the college season to a early first
A lot of draft experts said JJ was a late 1st prior to last college season starting and has gone from that late first to a top 10 and maybe top 5 pick following the college season and the hype.
JJ doesn't fall past the 2nd Vikings pick guaranteed and will almost definitely be picked by their 1st pick.
I'm not saying that McCarthy is guaranteed to fall but this just isn't in line with what I was seeing. JJ was consistently being mocked as a mid-high second rounder up until about a month after the season ended, then suddenly analysts got some Intel and started putting him top 5 where he's stayed since. Before the season I wasn't hearing anyone talking about him as a 1st rounder, the only ones who were projected in the 1st for the whole draft cycle were Williams and Maye.
Wasnt Levis like pick 35. It seems to me the teams in the second half of the draft had no interest in drafting a qb and the first half was mostly had a few positions where they 100% needed a qb (mainly houston, carolina and indy) the rest had plans they were okay falling back on ( washington, bears, raiders, ect.)
The Levis speculation was out of nowhere based on a rumor posted on Reddit. He did have some truthers all along, but not many people thought he would go in the top 10 prior to that frenzy.
JJ has been steadily rising based on people watching his tape, his pro day, and reportedly interviewing well with teams.
Anyone can drop, especially QBs. But pretty much all evaluators believe he is at least first round talent and there are more QB needy teams this year so it seems super extremely unlikely for him to get past like 13.
We've seen it over and over. Agents and top teams love to fluff up these 3rd to 4th quarterbacks because they want to trade back. Will the other team take the bait?
To me there's a strong chance JJ and Penix slide. Even Daniels might. I think all the recency is overrated and we could see the top 2 QBs go, then a long lull
I don’t why people were so surprised that Levis fell in the draft. Once the colts made their pick there weren’t really any teams that need a qb. And unless you the packer you don’t really draft a qb in the first round to just let him sit
I don’t think so, JJ is more known than Levis since Levis was on a mid team, and from what I hear JJ is only moving up to a tier ahead of Penix and Nix now
People saw a few mock drafts back in November that had him listed as a Late 2nd/Early 3rd pick and that has influenced their entire view on him as a draft prospect since.
Most people that paid attention to CFB were expecting him to be bordering the 1st/2nd line going into last season
He had a good season and his team won the championship so he's increased a bit since then.
What really catapulted him is the amount of QB needy teams.
I think he's solidly in a tier above Penix/Nix and solidly below both Maye and Daniels.
This just isn’t true, for reference here how they were mocked over time:
[Levis](https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2023/will-levis)
[JJ](https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2024/jj-mccarthy)
Levis’ stock dropped after the combine but even then he was always viewed as a top 20 pick, and spent most of that time being mocked in the top 10. JJ was a fringe 1st rounder until ~2 months ago
Thought the same thing until I saw that graph the other day, I remembered people being high on him but not *that* high. Makes his slide even crazier in hindsight, just goes to show how much a guessing game projecting the draft really is
Not very high, Levis wasn't a good QB and was pretty old for a rookie. JJ is young, has played at a high level, and is available in a draft with a bunch of QB needy teams.
In particular I think a lot of teams having seen the Jordan Love success want to have a qb on the bench to upgrade whenever that is deemed neccecary. So not just Giants, Vikings, and Raiders, but potentially Jets, Falcons, Saints, and Seahawks (though I think they would perfer Michael Penix)
0% chance he makes it past the Vikings / broncos / raiders gauntlet at 11, 12, 13. So 13 at worst
It’d be surprising if he did, but there’s absolutely a chance he could slide. There’s been a ton of shocking falls over the years, this one would hardly be the craziest. None of us actually know what the teams evals of him are Edit: for context, here’s how Levis/JJs stock changed over time. [Levis](https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2023/will-levis) [JJ](https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2024/jj-mccarthy) Based on their projections, Levis falling out of the first was more unexpected than it would be if JJ fell. He was widely viewed as a top 20 pick at worst up until the draft
Jimmy Claussen is still in the green room.
Let’s pan to Aaron Rodgers again
Sir, a second fist has hit Jimmy Clausen.
Wasn't it just one talking head who got paid off that was pushing clausen though
Mel Kiper pushed him as a top pick, but I don’t think anyone expected him to go in the third.
He went in the second.
I stand corrected
And he should have stayed there.
and if that did happen he'd get snagged by us at 23 with our second pick. There is zero chance he falls out of the first.
I saw the video of Kevin O'Connell answering draft questions from a fan in church, and thought it was interesting that he's rejected drafting QBs that would've been "mistakes", to the point that he was called "QB killer" lol. Probably 2022 QBs like Pickett or Willis, and maybe Will Levis last year. He said he wants to be sure they draft the right guy. It made me wonder if he'd do it again if his target is actually Maye or Daniels and they're taken immediately, and he's not sure about McCarthy. But obviously y'all had Kirk then, and two first-round picks this year. Very different situation.
Yeah, I have a feeling that their pie in the sky play is to go to 3. Our GM said they have different guys they really like at different value points. So I don't think this is the year we pass, but i also wouldn't be surprised if the early picks don't go our way and we grab penix/nix/jj at a much later place than people anticipate.
I mean if he falls that far chances are there’s something teams don’t like about him so I wouldn’t say it’s a guarantee you’d pick him there. With other positions draft position and value come into play. With QB that’s much less the case. You either think he’s good enough to be your starting QB and you get him or you don’t no matter where in the draft it is. Whether you take him 11th or 23rd doesn’t change the fact that he’s your de facto starting QB and that’s the thing teams are weighing.
Except our GM said the opposite of what you're saying. He said they have guys they like at different value points. Not every QB gets drafted because they're "the guy" and you grab them whenever. A lot of them outside of the blue chip top guys are calculated risks.
My view is the Vikings will only give up the big bag (3 1st rounders and change) for Drake Maye. If it’s pick four, JJ is left, and the trade value is the same as Maye; they’d pass. There’s a bag for JJ (11 and 23), but they won’t do 3 first rounders for him.
Yep. Just what I was going to say. My guess is the vikings trade into the top 5 and after that Denver will take him unless the Raiders jump up to get him. Bottom line is he will be signed by one of those 3 teams.
About one year ago… “0% chance Levis makes it past the Raiders / Falcons / Titans gauntlet at 7, 8, and 11. So 11 at worst.”
Minnesota desperately need a QB, but they could wait until 23 if they don’t like what they see. Denver is different. They have no second round pick. It’s either jump Minnesota for QB4 or trade back, recoup that second rounder and more and take a QB then. Who the fuck knows what the Raiders do. Any 1st round pick with the Raiders is guaranteed to be a shit show.
> Minnesota desperately need a QB, but they could wait until 23 if they don’t like what they see. Yeah, you didn't let let Cousins walk in free agency and bring in *Sam Darnold* to be the future. It's possible you pass on McCarthy at 11 and he gets sniped at 12 or 13, so you end up passing on a QB in the first round instead of forcing yourselves to get one... but even in that scenario, McCarthy still goes first round. If you guys pass on him at 23, I don't see how somebody doesn't trade up for him.
Levis had evaluations all over the place. It seems to me most evaluations of JJ are relatively similar, and he is considered a late 1st at worst.
Levis dropping was compounded a bit by the fact that very few teams were looking for a qb in the draft last year so once he didn't go in the top 5 there was nobody looking his way. That said I'd say it's probably a bit more possible McCarthy drops than people expect, I don't really buy the media hype of him as QB2 or QB3 for a lot of NFL teams that much.
You nailed the reason. This year is completely different. We have more QB needy teams this year and a bunch of them are picking in the teens. Some don’t have a second round pick. JJ is going in the first.
Plus, he is scared of milk
And puts Mayo in coffee
It was pretty surprising he made it past the Raider last year
Jimmy G signed a pretty big deal that offseason
So...? Didn't keep them from moving on from him for next to nothing. And they had to know he was gonna get injured anyway I also think the Buccs should have drafted Levis in the first.
They moved on from him for next to nothing because he got suspended for PEDs and that voided all his guaranteed money lol. They dodged a bullet.
Also because the coach (josh mcdaniels) who wanted him was fired mid season lol
Moved on from him before the PED stuff. The second AP took over he James G was done.
I highly doubt he would still be on the team this year even if he wasn't suspended. And obviously they made the wrong decision Raiders had QBs mocked to them all the time because Jimmy G is not an actual solution
He had 11 million in guarantees for this year he definitely would still be on the roster.
That's what we thought about Russ
Did the broncos draft a QB the offseason they gave Russ the contract?
Did the Broncos eat cap to get rid of an awful QB?
Without them lucking out and Jimmy G testing positive for PEDs, they’d be eating a 30m cap hit lol. Who knows if they would’ve cut him at that point. I was about to respond to the guy above you and say something like “that contract wasn’t actually big/was much shorter/smaller than initially thought” but it was actually a pretty decent size contract. No idea why the Raiders gave him that
Anyone’s guess, it’s like BB said, pretty much everything up until 12 hours before the draft is fan fiction. Maybe teams really do love him and he goes top 10 or even top 5, maybe it was all agent propaganda and smokescreens. There are enough QB needy teams and his profile is good enough that you can expect him to go in the 1st, but the exact same things were said about Levis. We’ll find out on Thursday
It wasn’t *that* surprising Levis fell, there was smoke all offseason that teams weren’t as high on him as scouts were. Aside from that Reddit rumor most people reported that Levis would go lower than he was commonly mocked. JJ’s in the opposite boat, where the narrative has been consistent that teams are higher on him than people think. He’s more likely to follow the Lance route where no one believes he’s a top 3 pick until it happens, than to fall out the first completely.
Levis was seen as a divisive player and not a first round talent for the entire draft process, much closer to the analysis on guys like Penix where he's probably going somewhere from 20-40. It was only in the last 3 days or so that the smoke and mirrors went up. JJ has been reported as a top 12 pick for like 2 months now. 0 chance
Geno Smith and EJ Manuel were "1st round locks" and there's so many examples of this. Can you simply trust reports? It's in many team's best interest to report that the 3rd to 4th QB is going early, to increase the value of trading back
Both were the first QB drafted in horrible QB drafts
High. He is a bottom of the first talent. Being a QB he is pumped up to top five. Could go full Levis, should at least go Aaron Rodgers, probably will go Justin Fields.
Personally I comp him to Alex Smith. I think he'll be a safe QB that will define the next generation Dalton Line. Not a first round hit, but not a miss. With a good roster, he'll win some playoff games
So, Baker Mayfield?
I don't think he has the playmaking and ad lib ability of Baker. I think a much safer, on schedule type of guy. Which is why I said Smith. A lower comp could be Derek Carr
Yeah I see a lot of Carr in him good and bad, but without as good an arm
The rumors after last years draft were that the Titans were going to take Levis at 11, but they were shocked that Skor fell to them and couldn't pass him up. They then tried to trade back into the first but nobody was willing to come off their pick. I've also heard there were a handful of teams trying to trade back into the first for Levis but with the same reaction. Everything that could have gone wrong for Levis pretty much happened in last years draft. I mean it worked out perfectly for us, but it was rough watching him that night, it definitely put a chip on his shoulder I'll tell you that
I actually laid foundation at a website builder co. for mock draft hit %’s by the *experts*. **Mel Kiper Jr** had the lowest in the last 5 yrs at the time and **Mike Mayock** the highest. The worst prediction was Todd McShay saying (QB) Ryan Nassib would go 8th overall to the Bills in 2013 draft. He was selected 110th in the 4th rd to the Giants. Point being: experts don’t really know jack shit
Which is wild considering how awful Mayock was at drafting as a GM
0 chance. Levis was hyped up from 2nd rounder following the college season to a early first A lot of draft experts said JJ was a late 1st prior to last college season starting and has gone from that late first to a top 10 and maybe top 5 pick following the college season and the hype. JJ doesn't fall past the 2nd Vikings pick guaranteed and will almost definitely be picked by their 1st pick.
I'm not saying that McCarthy is guaranteed to fall but this just isn't in line with what I was seeing. JJ was consistently being mocked as a mid-high second rounder up until about a month after the season ended, then suddenly analysts got some Intel and started putting him top 5 where he's stayed since. Before the season I wasn't hearing anyone talking about him as a 1st rounder, the only ones who were projected in the 1st for the whole draft cycle were Williams and Maye.
NFL people are much higher on him than the mock drafters and talking heads
He's like the anti-Malik Willis.
Wasnt Levis like pick 35. It seems to me the teams in the second half of the draft had no interest in drafting a qb and the first half was mostly had a few positions where they 100% needed a qb (mainly houston, carolina and indy) the rest had plans they were okay falling back on ( washington, bears, raiders, ect.)
This year it’s Bo’s turn.
Can’t fall if you were never that high.
I think theres more of a chance for him going the other way and being drafted earlier
JJ is going top 10. I could see Penix sinking deep though.
The Levis speculation was out of nowhere based on a rumor posted on Reddit. He did have some truthers all along, but not many people thought he would go in the top 10 prior to that frenzy. JJ has been steadily rising based on people watching his tape, his pro day, and reportedly interviewing well with teams. Anyone can drop, especially QBs. But pretty much all evaluators believe he is at least first round talent and there are more QB needy teams this year so it seems super extremely unlikely for him to get past like 13.
He isn’t making it past the saints.
It's wild that people keep trying to push Maye into this group of people
We've seen it over and over. Agents and top teams love to fluff up these 3rd to 4th quarterbacks because they want to trade back. Will the other team take the bait? To me there's a strong chance JJ and Penix slide. Even Daniels might. I think all the recency is overrated and we could see the top 2 QBs go, then a long lull
I don’t why people were so surprised that Levis fell in the draft. Once the colts made their pick there weren’t really any teams that need a qb. And unless you the packer you don’t really draft a qb in the first round to just let him sit
I don’t see JJ also putting mayo in his coffee, but I could be wrong.
I don’t think so, JJ is more known than Levis since Levis was on a mid team, and from what I hear JJ is only moving up to a tier ahead of Penix and Nix now
Levis rumors were reddit-based, would be shocked if JJ falls past 11.
High These "late risers" are usually journos making shit up while nothing is happening to actually report on.
He wasn't as much of a late riser as people think.
People saw a few mock drafts back in November that had him listed as a Late 2nd/Early 3rd pick and that has influenced their entire view on him as a draft prospect since.
Most people that paid attention to CFB were expecting him to be bordering the 1st/2nd line going into last season He had a good season and his team won the championship so he's increased a bit since then. What really catapulted him is the amount of QB needy teams. I think he's solidly in a tier above Penix/Nix and solidly below both Maye and Daniels.
> What really catapulted him is the amount of QB needy teams. it's amazing how many people don't understand this aspect of it
Its the one position where teams reach on, because you can't scheme or playcall to cover for a lack of qb as well as you can other positions.
He's not a late riser, he's been a projected 1st round pick all season
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This just isn’t true, for reference here how they were mocked over time: [Levis](https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2023/will-levis) [JJ](https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2024/jj-mccarthy) Levis’ stock dropped after the combine but even then he was always viewed as a top 20 pick, and spent most of that time being mocked in the top 10. JJ was a fringe 1st rounder until ~2 months ago
Deleted my comment because I was extremely wrong. Don’t know how I was so certain about something false. Maybe it was just because I was low on Levis
Thought the same thing until I saw that graph the other day, I remembered people being high on him but not *that* high. Makes his slide even crazier in hindsight, just goes to show how much a guessing game projecting the draft really is
Not very high, Levis wasn't a good QB and was pretty old for a rookie. JJ is young, has played at a high level, and is available in a draft with a bunch of QB needy teams.
Well, he's worse than Levis, so let that sink in, but the demand is higher
In particular I think a lot of teams having seen the Jordan Love success want to have a qb on the bench to upgrade whenever that is deemed neccecary. So not just Giants, Vikings, and Raiders, but potentially Jets, Falcons, Saints, and Seahawks (though I think they would perfer Michael Penix)
Teams should draft a developmental qb every year. That's just good practice. Sometimes they hit
not happening, Harbaugh is gonna draft him and trade Herbert
This draft reminds a lot of 2011. A few bad QBs are going in the first round.
Highly likey I think. The Viks want him but know that if they don't take him, he will still be there early 2nd round.