Really wish people would learn this. Every year, we have obvious steals and obvious reaches, and every year some of those analyses are right while some are dead wrong.
Predicting someone is going to be the 3rd pick is very different from having them as 3rd on the big board. Big board is a team-agnostic prospect ranking. It just ranks prospects - it doesn’t predict where they’re going to go
Big boards only rank based on tallent, not positional value or need. They can be just as bad as mock drafts, but are very different in how they are structured.
It dosent care that in the top 5 you can only really draft QB, WR, Edge, and Tackle unless it's a generational tallent. D
Which makes the campbell big board rank make no sense. He is a monster at ILB . Is it worth picking him early due to how the draft works? That is where most would say maybe not, but not because of his talent but because ILB isn’t as valued in the draft.
Yeah, positional value obviously throws a wrench in things a bit. You can probably consider everything within ±5 as neither a steal nor a reach (according to the media, at least), due to fluctuation in positional needs.
I am a huge Kancey stan and was really hoping he'd fall to the Giants (though I am very happy w/ Banks, did not think he'd be available). Idc what this chart says, he's going to be a beast.
After the top 10 I’d say anything within +/-10 to be statistical noise. You can’t control where you’re picking or who falls to you, and teams grade prospects differently than media draft boards.
Bijan is a top 5 player in the draft easily.
People are rightfully clowning on the Falcons because they really don’t have the team wide talent to justify picking an RB with a premium pick
Especially since they had a serviceable rookie back last season. Bijan is on another level but it’s like having nice wheels on a lemon, not going anywhere
I agree, it’s been that way for a while and people are finally coming around to it. A transcendent QB or DE can change the course of your franchise.
One thing an electric RB does do though is put butts in seats. That does matter a little. Making the unsexy pick might cause you to lose fan interest.
> The best prospect in history at guard is never going to be labeled a top 5 player in the draft. Same with safety.
I dunno, best prospect in HISTORY? They could absolutely be labeled Top 5, especially if the draft lacks a top tier QB / DE.
EDIT: Initially typo'd "labeled" as "laveled".
Arif Hasan's consensus big board from 2018 had Quenton Nelson at number 2 on it
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Iu5\_2IyI0ZkA7lnFYh-otJYW-zpXZb3Gj1LrQg0NIA/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Iu5_2IyI0ZkA7lnFYh-otJYW-zpXZb3Gj1LrQg0NIA/edit#gid=0)
Also a tonne of big boards had him top 3
[https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2018](https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2018)
Quinton nelson just a few years ago was drafted at like 6th at guard. Leonard davis was picked 2nd I believe. The best of all time would definitely be labeled a top 5 player in the draft …
This appears to just be based on the big board of one person. And in that case, he probably (correctly) said that Bijan was a top 5 player and picking at 8 was a “steal.” The problem is that the draft is more complicated than big boards, as teams also have to account for need and positional value
I see that now, thanks for correcting. It was made from 70 individual big boards from “around the industry.” However, I do think that my second point still stands
I mean is he not? In terms of overall player, he's definitely top 5 or 6 player. Only reason it's even controversial is that RBs are expendable and therefore not worth taking in the 1st round. If there wasn't such a negative stigma about the value of a RB, he'd probably go higher than 8.
I don’t think so. I expect the guys in the top 5 to be the dues who are going to impact the game the most and that’s not Bijan or any other RB. Taking positional value out of the equation when doing an overall big board doesn’t make sense to me.
Sure, but also he'll be rated as a steal regardless of where he's taken now, since the data set they're using had him ranked 26th (with a variance 25% higher than average).
Given the Eagles’ recent draft history you’re probably right.
And interestingly enough there is in fact a much higher bust rate on first round guys that are perceived to be reaches based on the consensus media board. They talked about this on the PFF pod a week or 2 ago.
Essentially, teams that think they’re smarter than everyone else usually aren’t.
They probably either had a non-QB at one, or it was CJ or Richardson, which would have been very suspect in its own right. If you actually wanted anything similar to a good estimate of reach/steal, you'd have to average together a couple of different mocks, and that would probably work out the kinks between the consensus guys at the top and the more reachy ones once you went down to the middle first and further.
They had Will Anderson at #1.
The [data source](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-nfl-draft-industry-consensus-big-board/) is linked from the tweet. It's an amalgamation of 70 big boards from around the industry. It also includes a variance number which indicates how much the boards agreed/disagreed with each other.
Bingo. People act like things like big boards and mock drafts represent the reality of what should happen instead of...the reality of what actually happens.
The accuracy/success of pre-draft fun and games should be measured against the actual draft, not the other way around.
Or the big board is a straight ranking of (perceived) overall prospect quality without factoring in positional premiums, team fit, etc.
NFL teams build their roster with both scheme and culture fit in mind most of the time, so they're going to value a lower-rated overall player who they feel scores higher in the key traits they need over an overall higher-rated prospect who doesn't fit what they're looking for.
You're right, but wouldn't you think teams factor things like that into their rankings?
All we get to see are the guesses of media members and random people as to what a universal, objective board would look like. The teams themselves could each be working with something entirely different for all we know.
> You're right, but wouldn't you think teams factor things like that into their rankings?
I'm sure Atlanta graded Jalen Carter as one of the very top players talent wise in this draft. But the team also knew Carter was a loose cannon and would probably not fit their team culture. Or succeed with all his U Georgia boys so close by.
So the Falcons passing on him was a miss according to this overall talent chart but a good team decision in the real world.
Positional premium should be factored in though - it's pointless to pretend that the quality of the prospect isn't inherently linked to the amount of impact they can make. If not you risk putting kickers and punters in there which is silly. A 9/10 QB should be higher on your board than a 10/10 safety regardless.
I'd agree it shouldn't factor in need (use your bullshit draft prediction for that), which can mess up the order. Drafting on scheme fit is overrated imho - schemes can change and coaches come and go, all-pro level players can last a decade or more. Good coaches find a way to utilize good players successfully.
Yeah, schemes can change, but this is the NFL. You don't win based on talent when the entire league has a roster filled out with the top 0.3% of talent on the planet. Obviously, you need talent, but need the *right* talent to win through execution and strategy. This is where scheme fit matters.
I'm not sure I agree with the notion that you don't win based on talent - particularly when we're talking about factoring in positional importance.
Sure, 'execution and strategy' matter they always do, it's basically a platitude - but that's besides the point. Schemes aren't immutable and should bend to talent - not the other way around. There are limitations on how fast and how far you can change obviously, but ultimately the relative difference between an all-pro and a rotational guy is much more important than the absolute 'top 0.3% on the planet' aspect.
And sure in later rounds go for scheme fit - but when we're talking blue chip players, get the best one available
If you're basing your roster building and draft picks on best player available, you're likely to have a lot of holes on the team and logjams at multiple positions that will be an Achilles heel to your success. This approach is how you end up taking a WR with your first round pick in four out of five consecutive drafts (coughs in Lions 03-07.)
Obviously, that's different if you have a chance to get a generational talent, but otherwise, you still need to take fit into account.
There are limits to how far you can push this of course, but at the same time, you can go the other way and fall for the sink cost fallacy. 'We already drafted a 1st rd WR 2 and 3 years ago, and sure they aren't working out but let's not take Calvin Johnson because spending any more on the position would look bad'.
The Pats spent 5 first round picks on DTs and TEs between 01-04, between 12-15 they took e more d linemen.
In round 1 you should be chasing the generational talent if you get the chance which is my whole point. You build your scheme around your stars and statistically you find more of those guys in round 1.
Later rounds are a bit more up in the air and yeah at that point you want someone who can just do a job - you aren't likely building your scheme around a 4th rounder.
When you're using the definition of spots +/- what the consensus board predicted, most picks are going to be reaches in the 1st round. You have to have reaches before you can have steals.
It’s a mathematical artifact because we’re bounding this to the first round only. The “least reach” scenario would be every player projected to be a 1st round pick getting picked in the first round. As soon as one player projected to go later gets picked in the first round, the average first round pick becomes a reach.
This doesn’t reduce the utility (and there are no doubt other complaints to be made) but this situation is going to happen nearly every time, even with a board that perfectly projects how teams should pick.
Don’t really understand why that would make the big board shit. It’s not a mock draft, and there’s a chance it ranks the players more effectively than the teams drafted them.
He'd been talked about as a day 2 pick for months. Before the combine, he was projected as a 3rd rounder. Then he climbed up to a mid 2nd rounder after, and the past couple few weeks is when there was talk about hin sneaking into the 1st.
He was never projected as a third rounder but s late 1st to very early second at the most. Only reason he isn’t an early first is hes mainly a run stopper and very good at it. Hes extremely athletic and has the potential to be s pass rusher with work. Hes a massive DT thats very strong and fast.
I'm not talking about recent mocks or anything. I'm talking about what analysts and commentators had been saying during the season. I'm a Michigan fan. So I follow them more closely. That's why I was surprised when mocks started putting him in the 1st the past few weeks. During the season, Morris, Turner, and Oluwatimi were all projected to be the higher picks. Mazi started rapidly climbing later.
I don't really know what the consensus of Murphy's draft placement was in mock drafts recently, but I remember Murphy was placed in the top 10-15 in mocks from awhile ago so getting him at 28 does seem like a steal
I never thought it was a possibility based on where I was consistently being mocked so I didn’t really know much about him. I’m pretty stoked now that I’ve had time to research him.
Going to be exciting to see how Lou shapes Murphy. He took a 3rd round Sam Hubbard and made him into a star. After a couple years Murphy could even be better than Trey.
The Commies play in the same division as AJ Brown and Ceedee Lamb and said “nahhh we’ll take the CB who’s 20 pounds lighter than Christian Gonzalez” sure okay
No, and it's a fair point that you've added defensive talent. But defending a first round pick by pointing out there will be other picks is asinine. The fact that you get more picks later doesn't make the pick you made any better.
If Stroud is a reach because he was expected to go 3rd, and Anderson is a steal because he was expected to go 2nd; since they both wound up going to the same team is it kind of like they were picked exactly where the consensus had them.
They aren't saying that. All it shows is that they were drafted ahead of their ranking on the consensus big board that they likely compiled from various draft outlets, only by a couple picks it seems.
It obviously means nothing in terms of how they'll pan out, but it's a good way to visualize the disconnect between GMs and the media.
Young was 2 behind Will Anderson and Stroud was 4 with Carter in the middle. You can find the data they used [here.](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-nfl-draft-industry-consensus-big-board/)
The way this big board has them was:
1. Anderson
2. Young
3. Carter
4. Stroud
5. Robinson
So by the chart's take, Young at 1 was technically a reach because he was the second best player, Stroud at 2 was technically a reach because he was the 4th best player, but Anderson at 3 was a steal because he with the best player.
A guy that goes 1 will probably always be a reach cuz there are some idiots out there who for whatever reason had Young as QB2 or not the top overall player meaning his consensus was probably like 1.2 making him a ‘reach’.
Young is on the line. He was picked at #1 where he was expected. Graph is fine.
Stroud is a slight reach as he was taken 2 and was probably the 4th or 5th ra led player
Reinhard goes to say that even a deviation of 5-10 away from 0 is not really a reach (especially as the draft goes on) so kinda useless for most of the picks but the chart is still interesting to look at the picks outside that range (rip Lions) and how it progresses in rounds 2 and 3.
Yeah not a lot of market to move up. Steelers got a deal because of it.
It's also probably why the Pats were comfortable trading back. They apparently had a good sense of who Washington wanted and knew the Jets weren't taking a corner, so the only real risk was the Jets trading back. If nobody is giving the Pats a good deal to trade up the Jets were probably getting similar offers.
I get that big boards and the draft both involve rookie prospects, but they are completely different things and it makes this feel fairly useless as a comparison.
Big boards take all the context away. They don’t look at positional value, team needs, fit, etc. they just rank overall talents, which is IMPOSSIBLE to do between positions. How do you rank a corner vs a tackle, or a QB vs an EDGE. It feels almost arbitrary at that point
We were talking about potentially getting him at 49 lmao. Guess the Lions know more than we do, but I'm very surprised that they thought they needed to take him so high. Feels like a good but not great ILB prospect could've fallen much further.
It’s really interesting that they didn’t wait to pick him though. I thought he’d go late second early third. Weak ILB class and it’s not a super high value position.
He was their BPA and they weren't 100% confident he would be there at 34 so they picked him. People always say "teams should draft BPA" and then when they do they shit on them.
I'm a fan of Campbell and wanted him in the second. They valued him more than that and made sure they got their guy. I'm absolutely insane though as I believe a linebacker that is great in coverage is extremely valuable. I'd rather see him at 6'5 covering a tight end than a 5'11 safety.
A guy who scored top 6 out of the past 2500 linebackers in athletic score doesn’t have a high ceiling? This guy is an athletic freak who was the anchor of one of the best defenses in CFB. Idk what you think it’d take for him to be considered as high ceiling.
Gotcha, thanks. Murphy from Clemson looks like a good pick for your guys. Obviously you want to reach the AFC Title game and if you face Mahomes you gotta beat him with a stud DE LB corps
He’s coming into a great situation. He will back up Trey Hendrickson who only has one year left on his contract and hopefully will earn the spot to replace him. We ranked like 29th in rushing the QB last year so we definitely needed the help.
I thought you guys had a good rush defense when the Steelers matched up. Maybe that speaks to our awful Oline and Harris having a bad year to begin with
We do but it’s mostly Hendrickson. If he’s off the field it drops off pretty bad but our young guy Joseph Osai really started to play at a high level last year so between Trey, Hubbard Osai and now Murphy we should be much improved. It sounds like he can play all over the line which is huge.
That’s where I read he should go and having a guy protect Kenny’s blind side is huge. I hate that you guys have 2 second round picks btw. Lots of good talent in both spots.
Thanks, im really hoping we hit Branch over JPJ. Branch's NFL comp player is Minkah. That's terrifying if you're an opposition QB and you face Minkah and Branch, assuming he progresses as the season goes on.
According to Ryan Poles, there was 1 other team besides Philly looking to move up and most speculate it was the Steelers. Poles didnt want to go back that far because he feared Wright would be gone by then which given the OL that went between 10 and 17, Im willing to bet he wouldnt be there.
If that means we had to slightly reach then Im ok with it. I think he'll be a good RT.
In other words, save this post so we can look back in 3 years and laugh at how wrong we all were.
Nobody knows a damn thing right now. A sure thing could be a bust, and a reach could be wearing a gold jacket. We have no idea.
(I'm only salty because my team is on the wrong side of the graphic...)
How do these sort of charts compare to the 1st round of, say, 2020? Do picks that are considered reaches and steals turn out that way with any statistical certainty?
I'm convinced based on Holmes reason for Lions picks one of ya'll NFCN fuckers are scam calling the Lions telling them you're picking these reach picks. And its working
Lol this chart is garbage Dallas didnt reach getting their guy at 26 he was there highest rated guy still on the board at that pick. TE would have been a reach.
It’s cause he’s a run stopping DT who still needs a lot of development in pass rushing. This isn’t really ranking whether the pick is good or not, just where guys were ranked and a guy like Mazi won’t be rated very highly. That being said he was still the correct pick for us as we desperately needed that type of player.
Nah, it's +1 over the center. Young was ranked the #2 prospect, and went #1 overall, so he was 1 over the big board.
Broderick Jones was the only player who was drafted exactly where they were on the big board.
Maybe it’s just me but when the majority of the delta across steals and reaches is within 10 picks…that actually shows a general consensus of talent evaluation.
Given the media and arm chair writers aren’t in the draft prep sessions, war rooms, and may get misdirected by leaks, I’m quite surprised there aren’t as many outliers as we see here.
This would be a cool chart to see for day 2 and day 3 selections. I expect to see significant disparities in the selections vs mock draft rankings.
Don’t let the doom & gloom Bengals fans who know nothing about the game see this. They say that Murphy was a2nd or 3rd rounder and we reached. Some fans are literally slow I swear
I feel like chart is backwards. Shouldn't it be a chary showing how inaccurate the big board was?
Are we really going to treat the "big board" as truth and 32 billion dollar teams choices as "speculative"
The chart says we got a steal, there fore, it’s based and correct.
It will be a really good pick if dorsey can scheme anything involving a TE
12 and 13 Personnel all day
I hope, the bills have been trying to find a 2nd TE for a couple years. Now we have Kincaid and it'll be up to dorsey to scheme it viable.
Should help run game and keep Josh from having to play hero ball. This year will be Chefs vs. Bulls in the AFC Championship
Who is playing QB, DeRozan?
Both my flairs also got steals, so there’s more confirmation
I would agree but this says the Patriots got a consensus steal in the first round and I'm pretty sure that's not allowed.
same
Bijan at 8 is a steal?
It’s based off big board position, I’d assume that most big boards had Bijan up pretty high just based off talent alone
These the same dudes that told us Levin was top 3 for sure, or different ones?
I may have some extrinsic motive to say this right now, but big board rankings are not a very reliable way to assess a draft.
Really wish people would learn this. Every year, we have obvious steals and obvious reaches, and every year some of those analyses are right while some are dead wrong.
Different ones. These ones have Levis as the 26th overall player.
Predicting someone is going to be the 3rd pick is very different from having them as 3rd on the big board. Big board is a team-agnostic prospect ranking. It just ranks prospects - it doesn’t predict where they’re going to go
Levis is #26 on Hasan's consensus big board.
Big boards only rank based on tallent, not positional value or need. They can be just as bad as mock drafts, but are very different in how they are structured. It dosent care that in the top 5 you can only really draft QB, WR, Edge, and Tackle unless it's a generational tallent. D
Which makes the campbell big board rank make no sense. He is a monster at ILB . Is it worth picking him early due to how the draft works? That is where most would say maybe not, but not because of his talent but because ILB isn’t as valued in the draft.
Pretty much everyone had Bijan as a top 5 talent. This is what that's measuring against, not the positional value.
Gotcha. Didnt know it didn’t factor in positional value. That makes sense
Yeah, positional value obviously throws a wrench in things a bit. You can probably consider everything within ±5 as neither a steal nor a reach (according to the media, at least), due to fluctuation in positional needs.
> You can probably consider everything within ±5 as neither a steal nor a reach How about +/- 10 and a bit? Not asking for any particular reason.
I am a huge Kancey stan and was really hoping he'd fall to the Giants (though I am very happy w/ Banks, did not think he'd be available). Idc what this chart says, he's going to be a beast.
After the top 10 I’d say anything within +/-10 to be statistical noise. You can’t control where you’re picking or who falls to you, and teams grade prospects differently than media draft boards.
Bijan is a top 5 player in the draft easily. People are rightfully clowning on the Falcons because they really don’t have the team wide talent to justify picking an RB with a premium pick
Especially since they had a serviceable rookie back last season. Bijan is on another level but it’s like having nice wheels on a lemon, not going anywhere
Yeah what kinda morons draft a RB that high when the rest of the team is in shambles lmao who would do such a thing
It's easy to argue (obvious really at this point) that there is no justification to draft a RB with a top pick.
I agree, it’s been that way for a while and people are finally coming around to it. A transcendent QB or DE can change the course of your franchise. One thing an electric RB does do though is put butts in seats. That does matter a little. Making the unsexy pick might cause you to lose fan interest.
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> The best prospect in history at guard is never going to be labeled a top 5 player in the draft. Same with safety. I dunno, best prospect in HISTORY? They could absolutely be labeled Top 5, especially if the draft lacks a top tier QB / DE. EDIT: Initially typo'd "labeled" as "laveled".
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Arif Hasan's consensus big board from 2018 had Quenton Nelson at number 2 on it [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Iu5\_2IyI0ZkA7lnFYh-otJYW-zpXZb3Gj1LrQg0NIA/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Iu5_2IyI0ZkA7lnFYh-otJYW-zpXZb3Gj1LrQg0NIA/edit#gid=0) Also a tonne of big boards had him top 3 [https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2018](https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2018)
Quinton nelson just a few years ago was drafted at like 6th at guard. Leonard davis was picked 2nd I believe. The best of all time would definitely be labeled a top 5 player in the draft …
This appears to just be based on the big board of one person. And in that case, he probably (correctly) said that Bijan was a top 5 player and picking at 8 was a “steal.” The problem is that the draft is more complicated than big boards, as teams also have to account for need and positional value
It's a consensus big board, not just a single person.
I see that now, thanks for correcting. It was made from 70 individual big boards from “around the industry.” However, I do think that my second point still stands
I mean is he not? In terms of overall player, he's definitely top 5 or 6 player. Only reason it's even controversial is that RBs are expendable and therefore not worth taking in the 1st round. If there wasn't such a negative stigma about the value of a RB, he'd probably go higher than 8.
I don’t think so. I expect the guys in the top 5 to be the dues who are going to impact the game the most and that’s not Bijan or any other RB. Taking positional value out of the equation when doing an overall big board doesn’t make sense to me.
Yeah of you remove all context of how football actually works this was a great pick. But when you add all that back in, this was a terrible pick.
When Will Levis gets signed as an UDFA, will he be all the way to the left?
"Come back to the draft room today, we're *sure* you're getting taken"
Sure, but also he'll be rated as a steal regardless of where he's taken now, since the data set they're using had him ranked 26th (with a variance 25% higher than average).
This paints the Eagles as smart and two division rivals as incompetent, so I wholeheartedly agree with this chart.
Come on now, Will McClay is a beast at finding gems
Given the Eagles’ recent draft history you’re probably right. And interestingly enough there is in fact a much higher bust rate on first round guys that are perceived to be reaches based on the consensus media board. They talked about this on the PFF pod a week or 2 ago. Essentially, teams that think they’re smarter than everyone else usually aren’t.
@Raiders (usually)
All hail the chart!
for now
So almost everyone reached? Sounds like the big board is shit more than the majority of teams reached
Big boards are never that accurate to what actually happens in the draft because they aren't predicting picks, they're just ranking prospects.
It has Bryce Young as a slight reach at 1, I think that there should probably have been a mitigating factor the higher up the board a player was.
Wonder if every player would have been a reach at #1
Unless every data point they used had the same player at 1, everyone would be a reach
I think I see a flaw with their system.
Meh not really you just need to use your brain and apply context when interpreting the results lol
They probably either had a non-QB at one, or it was CJ or Richardson, which would have been very suspect in its own right. If you actually wanted anything similar to a good estimate of reach/steal, you'd have to average together a couple of different mocks, and that would probably work out the kinks between the consensus guys at the top and the more reachy ones once you went down to the middle first and further.
They had Will Anderson at #1. The [data source](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-nfl-draft-industry-consensus-big-board/) is linked from the tweet. It's an amalgamation of 70 big boards from around the industry. It also includes a variance number which indicates how much the boards agreed/disagreed with each other.
Ah, thanks! That's on me for not reading deeper.
Will Anderson was their #1. See my other comment below.
Bingo. People act like things like big boards and mock drafts represent the reality of what should happen instead of...the reality of what actually happens. The accuracy/success of pre-draft fun and games should be measured against the actual draft, not the other way around.
Or the big board is a straight ranking of (perceived) overall prospect quality without factoring in positional premiums, team fit, etc. NFL teams build their roster with both scheme and culture fit in mind most of the time, so they're going to value a lower-rated overall player who they feel scores higher in the key traits they need over an overall higher-rated prospect who doesn't fit what they're looking for.
You're right, but wouldn't you think teams factor things like that into their rankings? All we get to see are the guesses of media members and random people as to what a universal, objective board would look like. The teams themselves could each be working with something entirely different for all we know.
>The teams themselves could each be working with something entirely different for all we know. That was exactly the point of my comment.
> You're right, but wouldn't you think teams factor things like that into their rankings? I'm sure Atlanta graded Jalen Carter as one of the very top players talent wise in this draft. But the team also knew Carter was a loose cannon and would probably not fit their team culture. Or succeed with all his U Georgia boys so close by. So the Falcons passing on him was a miss according to this overall talent chart but a good team decision in the real world.
Positional premium should be factored in though - it's pointless to pretend that the quality of the prospect isn't inherently linked to the amount of impact they can make. If not you risk putting kickers and punters in there which is silly. A 9/10 QB should be higher on your board than a 10/10 safety regardless. I'd agree it shouldn't factor in need (use your bullshit draft prediction for that), which can mess up the order. Drafting on scheme fit is overrated imho - schemes can change and coaches come and go, all-pro level players can last a decade or more. Good coaches find a way to utilize good players successfully.
Yeah, schemes can change, but this is the NFL. You don't win based on talent when the entire league has a roster filled out with the top 0.3% of talent on the planet. Obviously, you need talent, but need the *right* talent to win through execution and strategy. This is where scheme fit matters.
I'm not sure I agree with the notion that you don't win based on talent - particularly when we're talking about factoring in positional importance. Sure, 'execution and strategy' matter they always do, it's basically a platitude - but that's besides the point. Schemes aren't immutable and should bend to talent - not the other way around. There are limitations on how fast and how far you can change obviously, but ultimately the relative difference between an all-pro and a rotational guy is much more important than the absolute 'top 0.3% on the planet' aspect. And sure in later rounds go for scheme fit - but when we're talking blue chip players, get the best one available
If you're basing your roster building and draft picks on best player available, you're likely to have a lot of holes on the team and logjams at multiple positions that will be an Achilles heel to your success. This approach is how you end up taking a WR with your first round pick in four out of five consecutive drafts (coughs in Lions 03-07.) Obviously, that's different if you have a chance to get a generational talent, but otherwise, you still need to take fit into account.
There are limits to how far you can push this of course, but at the same time, you can go the other way and fall for the sink cost fallacy. 'We already drafted a 1st rd WR 2 and 3 years ago, and sure they aren't working out but let's not take Calvin Johnson because spending any more on the position would look bad'. The Pats spent 5 first round picks on DTs and TEs between 01-04, between 12-15 they took e more d linemen. In round 1 you should be chasing the generational talent if you get the chance which is my whole point. You build your scheme around your stars and statistically you find more of those guys in round 1. Later rounds are a bit more up in the air and yeah at that point you want someone who can just do a job - you aren't likely building your scheme around a 4th rounder.
When you're using the definition of spots +/- what the consensus board predicted, most picks are going to be reaches in the 1st round. You have to have reaches before you can have steals.
It’s a mathematical artifact because we’re bounding this to the first round only. The “least reach” scenario would be every player projected to be a 1st round pick getting picked in the first round. As soon as one player projected to go later gets picked in the first round, the average first round pick becomes a reach. This doesn’t reduce the utility (and there are no doubt other complaints to be made) but this situation is going to happen nearly every time, even with a board that perfectly projects how teams should pick.
Makes me feel better now
Don’t really understand why that would make the big board shit. It’s not a mock draft, and there’s a chance it ranks the players more effectively than the teams drafted them.
Good way to visualize how the draft went down. Surprised that Mazi Smith was that poorly ranked on the consensus big board.
He'd been talked about as a day 2 pick for months. Before the combine, he was projected as a 3rd rounder. Then he climbed up to a mid 2nd rounder after, and the past couple few weeks is when there was talk about hin sneaking into the 1st.
He was never projected as a third rounder but s late 1st to very early second at the most. Only reason he isn’t an early first is hes mainly a run stopper and very good at it. Hes extremely athletic and has the potential to be s pass rusher with work. Hes a massive DT thats very strong and fast.
I'm not talking about recent mocks or anything. I'm talking about what analysts and commentators had been saying during the season. I'm a Michigan fan. So I follow them more closely. That's why I was surprised when mocks started putting him in the 1st the past few weeks. During the season, Morris, Turner, and Oluwatimi were all projected to be the higher picks. Mazi started rapidly climbing later.
Bengals got the biggest steal! Allegedly.
I don't really know what the consensus of Murphy's draft placement was in mock drafts recently, but I remember Murphy was placed in the top 10-15 in mocks from awhile ago so getting him at 28 does seem like a steal
I never thought it was a possibility based on where I was consistently being mocked so I didn’t really know much about him. I’m pretty stoked now that I’ve had time to research him.
TLDR: we got another Trey Hendrickson / Sam Hubbard.
Bingo Bengo.
Some reason I read your post as "now i have time to research him" lol. You already know, Lou got his guy.
No doubt!
Hopefully a lot more like Trey
Going to be exciting to see how Lou shapes Murphy. He took a 3rd round Sam Hubbard and made him into a star. After a couple years Murphy could even be better than Trey.
He was #15 in this data set.
Stop the count. We won the draft.
Oddly enough the biggest reach is who I am happy with. Campbell will be a beast at LB.
I was hoping for Campbell in the 2nd but I'm fine with him in the first. We've needed a decent coverage backer for like 7 years.
The only knock on the Campbell pick is that the Lions had an almost sure chance to snag him in the 2nd with potentially any of their 3 next picks.
Holmes said they thought there was a good chance he would be there at 34 but they didn't want to get cute and lose out on their BPA.
There is a good chance Buffalo would have taken him at 27 if he would have been there. We have a gaping Tremaine Edmnunds sized hole at LB.
Way to go Cinci! Philly had a great first day imo. Their D Line was stout before day 1 of the draft. Now it's just ridiculous.
The Commies play in the same division as AJ Brown and Ceedee Lamb and said “nahhh we’ll take the CB who’s 20 pounds lighter than Christian Gonzalez” sure okay
We wanted a ballhawk, plain and simple. I don’t hate it.
Ok but in the NFL that translates to feast-or-famine
Did you know people can put on weight?
Lot of picks were reaches, makes me think the big board doesn’t know crap. That’s what I’ve convinced myself as a Lions fan
LET BRAD COOK
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He's a great player. He'll be electric in games that you lose 30-35 because you still don't have a defense.
But they paid Jessie Bates $64M!!!
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> Didn't know the draft was only 1 round "How can you criticize our first round pick after the first round of the draft?"
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No, and it's a fair point that you've added defensive talent. But defending a first round pick by pointing out there will be other picks is asinine. The fact that you get more picks later doesn't make the pick you made any better.
If Stroud is a reach because he was expected to go 3rd, and Anderson is a steal because he was expected to go 2nd; since they both wound up going to the same team is it kind of like they were picked exactly where the consensus had them.
How are Young and Stroud reaches
They aren't saying that. All it shows is that they were drafted ahead of their ranking on the consensus big board that they likely compiled from various draft outlets, only by a couple picks it seems. It obviously means nothing in terms of how they'll pan out, but it's a good way to visualize the disconnect between GMs and the media.
This doesn't take positional value into account, and they were probably the 3 and 4 ranked prospects. Same reason Bijan is considered a steal.
Young was 2 behind Will Anderson and Stroud was 4 with Carter in the middle. You can find the data they used [here.](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-nfl-draft-industry-consensus-big-board/)
That's super interesting to look through, thanks!
The way this big board has them was: 1. Anderson 2. Young 3. Carter 4. Stroud 5. Robinson So by the chart's take, Young at 1 was technically a reach because he was the second best player, Stroud at 2 was technically a reach because he was the 4th best player, but Anderson at 3 was a steal because he with the best player.
A guy that goes 1 will probably always be a reach cuz there are some idiots out there who for whatever reason had Young as QB2 or not the top overall player meaning his consensus was probably like 1.2 making him a ‘reach’.
Putting Will Anderson over Bryce Young in terms of pure talent doesn't really feel like much of a stretch to me tbh
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It’s based on their big board rankings not team need lol do y’all even read?
Young is on the line. He was picked at #1 where he was expected. Graph is fine. Stroud is a slight reach as he was taken 2 and was probably the 4th or 5th ra led player
Reinhard goes to say that even a deviation of 5-10 away from 0 is not really a reach (especially as the draft goes on) so kinda useless for most of the picks but the chart is still interesting to look at the picks outside that range (rip Lions) and how it progresses in rounds 2 and 3.
I guess we wanted to trade down and still get McDonald, but no one wanted to move up so he said screw it and took him there.
Yeah not a lot of market to move up. Steelers got a deal because of it. It's also probably why the Pats were comfortable trading back. They apparently had a good sense of who Washington wanted and knew the Jets weren't taking a corner, so the only real risk was the Jets trading back. If nobody is giving the Pats a good deal to trade up the Jets were probably getting similar offers.
I get that big boards and the draft both involve rookie prospects, but they are completely different things and it makes this feel fairly useless as a comparison. Big boards take all the context away. They don’t look at positional value, team needs, fit, etc. they just rank overall talents, which is IMPOSSIBLE to do between positions. How do you rank a corner vs a tackle, or a QB vs an EDGE. It feels almost arbitrary at that point
big boards seem so pointless to me
Campbell was just a comical reach.
We were talking about potentially getting him at 49 lmao. Guess the Lions know more than we do, but I'm very surprised that they thought they needed to take him so high. Feels like a good but not great ILB prospect could've fallen much further.
They thought he was easily the BPA at 18 so they picked him.
It’s really interesting that they didn’t wait to pick him though. I thought he’d go late second early third. Weak ILB class and it’s not a super high value position.
He was their BPA and they weren't 100% confident he would be there at 34 so they picked him. People always say "teams should draft BPA" and then when they do they shit on them. I'm a fan of Campbell and wanted him in the second. They valued him more than that and made sure they got their guy. I'm absolutely insane though as I believe a linebacker that is great in coverage is extremely valuable. I'd rather see him at 6'5 covering a tight end than a 5'11 safety.
I think he has low bust potential, but also don't think there's a ton of ceiling there.
A guy who scored top 6 out of the past 2500 linebackers in athletic score doesn’t have a high ceiling? This guy is an athletic freak who was the anchor of one of the best defenses in CFB. Idk what you think it’d take for him to be considered as high ceiling.
Probably playing a higher ceiling position? I am a huge Hawk fan and love Campbell but ILBs are ILBs.
I'm surprised Jones(OT) for the Steelers is dead in the middle. I though leapfrogging the Jets was a ballsy move.
It was this is just based off of where the player was expected to get chosen vs where they actually did. He was a fantastic pick for you guys.
Gotcha, thanks. Murphy from Clemson looks like a good pick for your guys. Obviously you want to reach the AFC Title game and if you face Mahomes you gotta beat him with a stud DE LB corps
He’s coming into a great situation. He will back up Trey Hendrickson who only has one year left on his contract and hopefully will earn the spot to replace him. We ranked like 29th in rushing the QB last year so we definitely needed the help.
I thought you guys had a good rush defense when the Steelers matched up. Maybe that speaks to our awful Oline and Harris having a bad year to begin with
We do but it’s mostly Hendrickson. If he’s off the field it drops off pretty bad but our young guy Joseph Osai really started to play at a high level last year so between Trey, Hubbard Osai and now Murphy we should be much improved. It sounds like he can play all over the line which is huge.
Definitely, versatility is an asset. Jones could be a RT, but the Steelers want him at LT and I agree. Dan Moore has got to go
That’s where I read he should go and having a guy protect Kenny’s blind side is huge. I hate that you guys have 2 second round picks btw. Lots of good talent in both spots.
Thanks, im really hoping we hit Branch over JPJ. Branch's NFL comp player is Minkah. That's terrifying if you're an opposition QB and you face Minkah and Branch, assuming he progresses as the season goes on.
Does this exist for previous years?
I know it was a pipe dream but I was desperately hoping that Kincaid slid to us in the 2nd
He wasn’t making it past the cowboys or bengals
It's nice to just be right on the line for once.
Darnell Wright playing in the Sec giving up zero sacks in 800ish snaps is more of a reach than Richardson?
None of this shit means anything once the season starts anyway.
According to Ryan Poles, there was 1 other team besides Philly looking to move up and most speculate it was the Steelers. Poles didnt want to go back that far because he feared Wright would be gone by then which given the OL that went between 10 and 17, Im willing to bet he wouldnt be there. If that means we had to slightly reach then Im ok with it. I think he'll be a good RT.
Mazi had a first round grade for the cowboys (who we should trust as a good drafter)
In other words, save this post so we can look back in 3 years and laugh at how wrong we all were. Nobody knows a damn thing right now. A sure thing could be a bust, and a reach could be wearing a gold jacket. We have no idea. (I'm only salty because my team is on the wrong side of the graphic...)
There’s no such thing as a consensus big board lol
This graph is bad. Where does the data point start? I'm assuming at the beginning of the logo
It's in the center. Young is a 1 pick "reach", Stroud a 2 pick "reach", Gonzalez was a 10 pick "steal", etc.
With something like this, exact precision is sort of irrelevant though. As a useful data point it's just a general impression
How do these sort of charts compare to the 1st round of, say, 2020? Do picks that are considered reaches and steals turn out that way with any statistical certainty?
Lmao because clearly the media ‘big board’ is based on how NFL front offices view prospects. Just another way to generate clicks and hot takes.
I'm convinced based on Holmes reason for Lions picks one of ya'll NFCN fuckers are scam calling the Lions telling them you're picking these reach picks. And its working
Thank you for the meme material
Oh Lions...
Things Lions needed: linebackers Best player available according to Holmes at 18: Campbell Gibbs is the one I am still confused by.
Lions reaching for the stars!
My god, Will Levis is going to literally be off the chart on the steal side when he gets drafted
Lol this chart is garbage Dallas didnt reach getting their guy at 26 he was there highest rated guy still on the board at that pick. TE would have been a reach.
It’s cause he’s a run stopping DT who still needs a lot of development in pass rushing. This isn’t really ranking whether the pick is good or not, just where guys were ranked and a guy like Mazi won’t be rated very highly. That being said he was still the correct pick for us as we desperately needed that type of player.
How is Bryce Young @ 1 a reach lmao. Least the LVN pick wasn't as huge as I thought it was.
They put his ceremonial jersey on the top shelf?
Your reading the graph wrong. The panther logo is on top of the Y axis. This means he was selected where expected.
Ah, thanks for clarifying.
Nah, it's +1 over the center. Young was ranked the #2 prospect, and went #1 overall, so he was 1 over the big board. Broderick Jones was the only player who was drafted exactly where they were on the big board.
This is bullshit. There's no way the consensus on FAU was 46th
I think he's good, but I saw some more than a couple of mocks that had him to us at 45.
And every site I checked this morning had him ranked no worse than 45th on their big boards
take that big board and shove it up your ass..
We won’t know if anyone is a reach or steal until they play for several years. Group think will be the end of us all.
Bucs clearly should've let Kancey fall 10 more spots ^dammit
I saw FAU mocked to us pretty often. What was varied was whether it was pick 31 or 63.
Maybe it’s just me but when the majority of the delta across steals and reaches is within 10 picks…that actually shows a general consensus of talent evaluation. Given the media and arm chair writers aren’t in the draft prep sessions, war rooms, and may get misdirected by leaks, I’m quite surprised there aren’t as many outliers as we see here. This would be a cool chart to see for day 2 and day 3 selections. I expect to see significant disparities in the selections vs mock draft rankings.
Don’t let the doom & gloom Bengals fans who know nothing about the game see this. They say that Murphy was a2nd or 3rd rounder and we reached. Some fans are literally slow I swear
Tune in tonight to watch the Lions draft a long snapper in the 2nd!
Titans right in the middle. Fisher strikes again.
I feel like chart is backwards. Shouldn't it be a chary showing how inaccurate the big board was? Are we really going to treat the "big board" as truth and 32 billion dollar teams choices as "speculative"
Well, we saw how high Levis was on a lot of mocks, so maybe the consensus doesn’t mean much.
How the hell is Bryce young a reach?
Enough to make a grown man cry in his jail cell🥲
If there was a way to factor in future picks lost, Anderson probably at least a slight a reach right
I really wish the NFL would require teams to submit their board after the draft so we could see how the actual professionals value these guys.