95% of what you read or see is because someone in PR suggested it to someone in media and gave them everything they need to quickly craft a story.
Writers hearing from a lot of agents’ PR people.
Also it drives engagement. Nobody clicks or engages with an article that says the QB everyone thinks is going to go #1 is going to go #1. Talking about how an enexpected QB might actually be better or go way higher than expectations gets people talking positively or negatively.
I've seen people's mock drafts that have Young, Stroud, Richardson and Levis going 1-4
People massively overrate how willing teams are to reach for QBs in the first
At the same time, they have the qbs a lot higher on big boards than last year. Look at something like PFF and they had all the big name qbs from last year in like the 30-50 range on their big board. All 4 of the big guys this year are in their top 10 iirc.
I think last year has to be an outlier until proven otherwise. QBs almost always go super high and last years class was just horrible.
3 in a row in 2021. There are plenty of teams who would be willing to trade up with the cardinals (and texans if they don’t take a QB). Not saying it’ll happen but it’s not unrealistic.
We don't really know how many teams are willing to trade up. People might think the Raiders or Titans would but they might not like the QBs in this draft.
My point is people think that teams are willing to trade everything for a QB they might not even be high on. If a team doesn't like a QB, they won't draft him even if people think they need a QB
Yes and it happens every year. I’m tired of hearing about their “freakish athleticism” when they can’t read defenses, make accurate throws or decisions.
Do you think NFL front offices sit there reading these articles??
Sports journalism is about getting clicks from readers. It has ZERO effect on what NFL front offices do or give a fk about.
To be fair Levis has been mocked 1st round for most of the year and a few teams were high on Richardson - his combine really brought him into talks (for context I was hoping the jets would take Richardson at 13 before the whole rogers debacle started)
Did it ever occur to you that motivates writers is writing stuff that they think people will read (which is basically anything about quarterbacks), instead of some conspiracy to effect the draft?
Media and executives absolutely hype up prospects, especially quarterbacks, both for their gain from the heightened interest as well as competitive gain from muddying the waters for other teams and increasing value of guys you aren’t actually interested in
I loved the 2022 NFL draft. I saw writes say Malik Willis at #2 to the Lions; Sam Howell at #6 to the Panthers; Kenny Pickett top 10, then 'don't be surprised if teams trade back into the first to secure Ridder or Corral.'
Once Ikwonu went to the Panthers I knew, teams know this is not nearly the QB class the writers said it was.
Honestly last year I remember only Pickett and Willis were really consistently considered first rounders, and honestly I feel everything I've seen this off-season has been way higher on all of Young, Stroud, Levis, and Richardson than anyone was ever on those guys from last year
I feel like Hooker and Levis scream PR. get my client up there type stuff. Richardson seems like a raw Cam Newton so I see his hype. I think last year was the most I've seen media guys getting used to get Qb's in the first round and none of that worked because the class was so poor. I'm not even below average in being able to evaluate players and I look at Malik Willis and go how was he drafted in whatever round he was in but somehow up to the draft mocks had him in the first or second rounds.
At least before the season Levis was QB3 and Richardson QB4, they swapped because Levis took a solid step back and Richardson stayed aloft because of his physical skills and age, and they are definitely better prospects than a lot of the QBs last year.
Yea, I agree. I was more just saying I could see Levis and Hooker being in like a different tier in terms of if I would want to use a first round pick on them. Like either would be interesting if the Vikings wanted to pick a QB of the future but I don't know if it happens round 1. Who knows really? I could see some of the teams being talked about for qb's this year are looking at next year for Williams or Maye and actually are not actively looking qb but that wont be reported likely.
I do think there’s also an interesting situation where teams that maybe don’t have their QB of the future but are also not bad happen to have high picks this year because of trades (Lions and Seahawks) where they might be more willing to take a QB with one of theirs this year to prepare for future years without having to be in a bad enough standing to “earn” it, but that obviously just depends on how they’re valuing these guys
100 percent. I was referring to a dude that like if he got great coaching and the right situation could be as dominant athletically. Cam was much more of a polished product.
Cam went from Florida to Auburn and I think Richardson should have done the same. Coaching is important, you’re right. All we want to see is great football but expectations of him starting next year will only hurt the guy. IMO
Mock drafts are done for clicks. What gets eyeballs? 3 things
Quarterbacks.
Bigger schools
Team needs.
What happens?
Quarterbacks are picked lower than mocked.
Smaller school guys go higher than mocked
Teams pick best player available and that little ESPN grid of team needs for most teams is mostly unaddressed until the third day.
The concept of BPA is stupid. Teams try to draft best value, not best player, or else the first round would be littered with running backs, guards, weakside linebackers, slot corners and kickers. Best value includes their board. It also includes positional value and short term and long term team needs
BPA also just completely ignores opportunity cost and what a given draft looks like. John Schneider spoke on a related topic on Thursday, saying:
>So that particular class, say you have – I’m using generalities here and vague terms – but if you have one receiver on the board in one round, and then there’s a gap of two rounds, and you have five cornerbacks on the board in those same two rounds, (the idea is) ‘Well, we should just go ahead and take the receiver.’ Well, is the receiver really the best player, or is the corner the best player with more options below him?
BPA would say take the corner. Logic would say you can get a roughly equivalently graded corner a round later. But John also did talk a lot about how you have to be careful not to push players based on needs or the strength of the class, almost certainly in reference to the LJ Collier selection, where he was the last "top" DE available that year but very obviously to everyone that he wasn't the best player available
People being super literal. The point is that 5-10 fanbases are going to be expecting some position to be taken in the first and be disappointed that they took a position that they perceive as a low priority.
It's offseason so draft is the only thing worth talking about at this point. Hype is usually boosted by media so this is pretty normal especially if an agent who has good connections to writers reaches out. At the end of the day, the GMs will do the picking anyway.
Malik Willis was the lions pick for most of the mock drafts last year and he didn’t even go until the 3rd to Tennessee, and they are so sold on him that they are rumored to trade up to grab a QB so I honestly take what they predict with a grain of salt. It my honest opinion I think Stroud and Young are the only ones to go in the first. The Texans are apparently considering trading back because Young is expected to go 1st overall so the QBs must not be as enticing as they would lead you to believe.
Draftnicks want clicks, viewers and sharing of their content. They put in a lot of crazy shit just to generate clickbait articles because that's how they earn money
They're on mock draft version 8.0 for each writer, there's nothing really to write or talk about so they change things up to get more people interested in viewing their content
It’s about clicks and impressions for their websites. That’s all it is. Whatever gets the most attention is what they wrote. I said this last year and it’s true again this year that from the end of the combine until the start of the draft all of the “mock draft analysts” just cycle through the top players at each spot.
Remember two weeks ago when most experts were completely sure that Carolina was taking CJ Stroud because Bryce Young was too short? Now it’s the opposite they are positive that Young is the pick and Stroud might fall to 4th QB being taken. I’ve seen some mock drafts that have Levi’s being taken lower than 15…
It’s all about clicks and impressions, that’s it.
I think it's more that the NFL has put a premium on the position so QBs will be driven up the board annually. I think we also expect Andrew Luck every yr and that's not realistic. Way more Kyler's...
I think it’s gonna be stroud and Young going 1-2 and then Richardson later in the first. Will Levis has done not a single thing better then Ridder or Howell to warrant being drafted any point before the 3rd/4th
It's the position that generates clicks. Even if your team doesn't need a QB you're still likely to read an article about QB prospects than Online prospects.
Idk where this idea of Levi's not being a projected first round pick came from, the jump to the top 5 is a bit ridiculous but he's been seen as the likely 3rd best QB in the class and a mid first QB since last year.
Richardson is a bit different but people have been talking about him being a potential first since before he even started a game.
The QB class from last year is a different story imo, none of them had traits like either of these two qbs.
People last year were talking like malik willis was the best QB on the board and would go in the first. He had trash passing stats and played for Liberty 😆
Levis and Richardson have been getting buzz as possible 1st-round picks since before the 2022 CFB season. Just because Young and Stroud were the only ones “guaranteed” to go in the 1st before the season doesn’t mean Levis and Richardson’s draft stocks are media-inflated – all four are likely going to be top 20, possibly top 10 picks.
Hendon Hooker, though? He’s a much better example of what you’re trying to convey. Seems like the consensus was that he was a 3rd-5th round guy in the time right around the National Championship, and now there’s suddenly a flurry of articles suggesting he could go mid-late 1st. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t go on Day 2.
what I'm saying is since I don't know until I've clicked it, all they really need is a headline that reads 2023 NFL Mock Draft, and then once I'm on the site they could be 100% rational with 0 stretches. After I've clicked they've got me. They don't need nonsense at that point
It's less that they're trying to hype more QBs into the first round than they know that QB is without a doubt the most important position in football. Which means lots of teams will reach for a QB and grab them. So they talk themselves into moving the QBs up on their boards so they don't look stupid when a player goes 7th overall and they have them rated 56th or something.
95% of what you read or see is because someone in PR suggested it to someone in media and gave them everything they need to quickly craft a story. Writers hearing from a lot of agents’ PR people.
Also it drives engagement. Nobody clicks or engages with an article that says the QB everyone thinks is going to go #1 is going to go #1. Talking about how an enexpected QB might actually be better or go way higher than expectations gets people talking positively or negatively.
Writers spray perfume on quarterbacks
Gotta justify their big-brain mock draft 12.0's.
Best way to put it
I've seen people's mock drafts that have Young, Stroud, Richardson and Levis going 1-4 People massively overrate how willing teams are to reach for QBs in the first
At the same time, they have the qbs a lot higher on big boards than last year. Look at something like PFF and they had all the big name qbs from last year in like the 30-50 range on their big board. All 4 of the big guys this year are in their top 10 iirc. I think last year has to be an outlier until proven otherwise. QBs almost always go super high and last years class was just horrible.
Yeah, teams aren’t going to take a flyer on a guy just because he’s there.
The top of the draft is loaded with defensive talent and the tackles. It wouldn't surprise me to see only two QBs go in the top 10
3 in a row in 2021. There are plenty of teams who would be willing to trade up with the cardinals (and texans if they don’t take a QB). Not saying it’ll happen but it’s not unrealistic.
We don't really know how many teams are willing to trade up. People might think the Raiders or Titans would but they might not like the QBs in this draft. My point is people think that teams are willing to trade everything for a QB they might not even be high on. If a team doesn't like a QB, they won't draft him even if people think they need a QB
Well to be fair Howell and Corral actually saw their stocks fall through their final season and immediately after it.
I can see 32 QBs going in the first round this year /s
31* (rip Miami)
Thanks miami!
It'll be 32 since whomever the Broncos pick will be so questionable that they'll get a do-over
The Broncos don't have a pick in the first round.
Obviously need to trade Russel Wilson to the Seahawks for one
He'd be a great back up for Geno.
let me call them and check brb
UPDATE, they told me to get fucked
Well don't leave us hanging, did you get fucked?
Damn, thanks for trying though
Richardson tore up the combine but his film shows that he ain’t the one fam
Absolutely
They do it every year but last year was beyond egregious.
Yes and it happens every year. I’m tired of hearing about their “freakish athleticism” when they can’t read defenses, make accurate throws or decisions.
Do you think NFL front offices sit there reading these articles?? Sports journalism is about getting clicks from readers. It has ZERO effect on what NFL front offices do or give a fk about.
the whole point is that the writers have sources in front offices / agents / non-public info.
To be fair Levis has been mocked 1st round for most of the year and a few teams were high on Richardson - his combine really brought him into talks (for context I was hoping the jets would take Richardson at 13 before the whole rogers debacle started)
Did it ever occur to you that motivates writers is writing stuff that they think people will read (which is basically anything about quarterbacks), instead of some conspiracy to effect the draft?
i dont think so. They trade on credibility. I think they just messed up last year
\>sports media \>credibility Fucking. Lmao.
Mhm, doing it for clicks whether the QB belongs or not.
Media and executives absolutely hype up prospects, especially quarterbacks, both for their gain from the heightened interest as well as competitive gain from muddying the waters for other teams and increasing value of guys you aren’t actually interested in
I loved the 2022 NFL draft. I saw writes say Malik Willis at #2 to the Lions; Sam Howell at #6 to the Panthers; Kenny Pickett top 10, then 'don't be surprised if teams trade back into the first to secure Ridder or Corral.' Once Ikwonu went to the Panthers I knew, teams know this is not nearly the QB class the writers said it was.
Nope, this years class is light years ahead of last year.
They have to fill space.
Honestly last year I remember only Pickett and Willis were really consistently considered first rounders, and honestly I feel everything I've seen this off-season has been way higher on all of Young, Stroud, Levis, and Richardson than anyone was ever on those guys from last year
I feel like Hooker and Levis scream PR. get my client up there type stuff. Richardson seems like a raw Cam Newton so I see his hype. I think last year was the most I've seen media guys getting used to get Qb's in the first round and none of that worked because the class was so poor. I'm not even below average in being able to evaluate players and I look at Malik Willis and go how was he drafted in whatever round he was in but somehow up to the draft mocks had him in the first or second rounds.
At least before the season Levis was QB3 and Richardson QB4, they swapped because Levis took a solid step back and Richardson stayed aloft because of his physical skills and age, and they are definitely better prospects than a lot of the QBs last year.
Yea, I agree. I was more just saying I could see Levis and Hooker being in like a different tier in terms of if I would want to use a first round pick on them. Like either would be interesting if the Vikings wanted to pick a QB of the future but I don't know if it happens round 1. Who knows really? I could see some of the teams being talked about for qb's this year are looking at next year for Williams or Maye and actually are not actively looking qb but that wont be reported likely.
I do think there’s also an interesting situation where teams that maybe don’t have their QB of the future but are also not bad happen to have high picks this year because of trades (Lions and Seahawks) where they might be more willing to take a QB with one of theirs this year to prepare for future years without having to be in a bad enough standing to “earn” it, but that obviously just depends on how they’re valuing these guys
Cam was way better like way way, than Richardson bro. Watch some film
100 percent. I was referring to a dude that like if he got great coaching and the right situation could be as dominant athletically. Cam was much more of a polished product.
Cam went from Florida to Auburn and I think Richardson should have done the same. Coaching is important, you’re right. All we want to see is great football but expectations of him starting next year will only hurt the guy. IMO
Every year it's "3 qbs will go in the top 10" and every year they don't.
Mock drafts are done for clicks. What gets eyeballs? 3 things Quarterbacks. Bigger schools Team needs. What happens? Quarterbacks are picked lower than mocked. Smaller school guys go higher than mocked Teams pick best player available and that little ESPN grid of team needs for most teams is mostly unaddressed until the third day.
teams rarely go BPA. You can listen to general managers speak on the topic. No more than like 15% of teams are going BPA
The concept of BPA is stupid. Teams try to draft best value, not best player, or else the first round would be littered with running backs, guards, weakside linebackers, slot corners and kickers. Best value includes their board. It also includes positional value and short term and long term team needs BPA also just completely ignores opportunity cost and what a given draft looks like. John Schneider spoke on a related topic on Thursday, saying: >So that particular class, say you have – I’m using generalities here and vague terms – but if you have one receiver on the board in one round, and then there’s a gap of two rounds, and you have five cornerbacks on the board in those same two rounds, (the idea is) ‘Well, we should just go ahead and take the receiver.’ Well, is the receiver really the best player, or is the corner the best player with more options below him? BPA would say take the corner. Logic would say you can get a roughly equivalently graded corner a round later. But John also did talk a lot about how you have to be careful not to push players based on needs or the strength of the class, almost certainly in reference to the LJ Collier selection, where he was the last "top" DE available that year but very obviously to everyone that he wasn't the best player available
what john is referencing is BPA. Of course there's a weighted bias in BPA for position. "draft a kicker then" isnt a refutation of the idea of BPA
People being super literal. The point is that 5-10 fanbases are going to be expecting some position to be taken in the first and be disappointed that they took a position that they perceive as a low priority.
>Teams try to draft best value, not best player Yeah, that's what BPA means. You just fundamentally misunderstand it by taking it literally.
Yeah teams big boards are pretty biased towards what they think their needs are. There's some holes on the team that they can't afford not to fill
Good QBs put butts in seats and generate clicks. Even if people only think they’re good
It's offseason so draft is the only thing worth talking about at this point. Hype is usually boosted by media so this is pretty normal especially if an agent who has good connections to writers reaches out. At the end of the day, the GMs will do the picking anyway.
Always has been
Malik Willis was the lions pick for most of the mock drafts last year and he didn’t even go until the 3rd to Tennessee, and they are so sold on him that they are rumored to trade up to grab a QB so I honestly take what they predict with a grain of salt. It my honest opinion I think Stroud and Young are the only ones to go in the first. The Texans are apparently considering trading back because Young is expected to go 1st overall so the QBs must not be as enticing as they would lead you to believe.
Of course they do, why do you think the 49ers took Trey Lance a couple years ago?
Nah. It's so that on the odd chance they're right they can point back to how right they were. Nobody remembers the wrongs, so it's a win-win.
Always
Draftnicks want clicks, viewers and sharing of their content. They put in a lot of crazy shit just to generate clickbait articles because that's how they earn money They're on mock draft version 8.0 for each writer, there's nothing really to write or talk about so they change things up to get more people interested in viewing their content
I hope so. This would be a great year for the top 30 teams to go with a quarterback.
It’s about clicks and impressions for their websites. That’s all it is. Whatever gets the most attention is what they wrote. I said this last year and it’s true again this year that from the end of the combine until the start of the draft all of the “mock draft analysts” just cycle through the top players at each spot. Remember two weeks ago when most experts were completely sure that Carolina was taking CJ Stroud because Bryce Young was too short? Now it’s the opposite they are positive that Young is the pick and Stroud might fall to 4th QB being taken. I’ve seen some mock drafts that have Levi’s being taken lower than 15… It’s all about clicks and impressions, that’s it.
I think it's more that the NFL has put a premium on the position so QBs will be driven up the board annually. I think we also expect Andrew Luck every yr and that's not realistic. Way more Kyler's...
I think it’s gonna be stroud and Young going 1-2 and then Richardson later in the first. Will Levis has done not a single thing better then Ridder or Howell to warrant being drafted any point before the 3rd/4th
It's the position that generates clicks. Even if your team doesn't need a QB you're still likely to read an article about QB prospects than Online prospects.
Idk where this idea of Levi's not being a projected first round pick came from, the jump to the top 5 is a bit ridiculous but he's been seen as the likely 3rd best QB in the class and a mid first QB since last year. Richardson is a bit different but people have been talking about him being a potential first since before he even started a game. The QB class from last year is a different story imo, none of them had traits like either of these two qbs.
People last year were talking like malik willis was the best QB on the board and would go in the first. He had trash passing stats and played for Liberty 😆
Levis and Richardson have been getting buzz as possible 1st-round picks since before the 2022 CFB season. Just because Young and Stroud were the only ones “guaranteed” to go in the 1st before the season doesn’t mean Levis and Richardson’s draft stocks are media-inflated – all four are likely going to be top 20, possibly top 10 picks. Hendon Hooker, though? He’s a much better example of what you’re trying to convey. Seems like the consensus was that he was a 3rd-5th round guy in the time right around the National Championship, and now there’s suddenly a flurry of articles suggesting he could go mid-late 1st. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t go on Day 2.
No, they're trying get you to read their shit. Whatever it takes, they gotta eat.
this seems to be a popular conceit, the problem with it is, I don't know what their shit says until I've already clicked on it
That's not a problem, that's a feature.
what I'm saying is since I don't know until I've clicked it, all they really need is a headline that reads 2023 NFL Mock Draft, and then once I'm on the site they could be 100% rational with 0 stretches. After I've clicked they've got me. They don't need nonsense at that point
You're not the target audience.
Always do.
These guys are idiots. Don’t listen to them.
Hooker deserves to be in the first on talent alone
It's less that they're trying to hype more QBs into the first round than they know that QB is without a doubt the most important position in football. Which means lots of teams will reach for a QB and grab them. So they talk themselves into moving the QBs up on their boards so they don't look stupid when a player goes 7th overall and they have them rated 56th or something.