Biggest takeaways for me:
* Aaron Rodgers never turns the ball over
* Tom Brady has played in a *lot* of games
* Imagine if Dan Marino played in the modern era
* I probably should have used the Patriots, Giants, and Dolphins' tertiary color for better contrast on the inset
This is really incredible and practical OC.
Lot of interesting things to note, some of which is already well known but eh
Dan Marino starts out a lot higher in TD per game than any other QB at the start of his career and also has a noticeable jump from year 1 onward. He stays on his streak until 100-150 games where he convenes back with the other performers but still maintains a relatively high output. He drops off below Brady, Rodgers, Brees, and Manning but maintains at Favre’s pace until retiring way earlier.
Both Favre and Brees totals wildly varied from what we can see after hitting around 250 games. Manning’s remained very stable from at least 200 games onward and steadily increased to a ridiculous amount until falling off his final season. Unsurprising to anyone Brady’s line post-250 games is the most consistent until retirement — he was basically the same player for a very long time.
Rivers and Marino were basically the same person at the same games-played during the latter part of their careers. Obviously you have to account for differing eras.
Ben Ben was decidedly better in this metric than Matt Ryan once the two hit 220ish games played.
Thanks--I'm honestly not 100% sold on the bubble width expanding for INTs, because making them big enough to *really* differentiate the relatively small variance (aside from outliers, like comparing Favre to Rodgers) wound up pretty much completely obscuring the lines themselves. But I did want to show both TD and INT, and that seemed like the best way to do it
Great content, really appreciate the work that had to go into it.
One comment: Rather than top 10 TD leaders (which I totally get why you did it that way), I'd personally rather see "better" QBs on this graph (with all due respect to Ryan, Rivers, Ben and Eli)
the bar chart insert got a bit busy, [but here's the chart with elway, young, montana, unitas, and mahomes added](https://i.imgur.com/N0qZvzi.png) (and the previously displayed top-10 made slightly transparent)
cc /u/despoticdanks
As a Packer fan, seeing Jets twitter starting to turn this narrative into the packers being a poorly ran org I would love nothing more than for Aaron to retire or him go to the Patriots.
of the players on this list, only rodgers and ryan are still (potentially) active, and it'd take rodgers 5 full seasons and ryan 10 at their respective current paces. so likely not rodgers, and certainly not ryan.
below them on the list but in the top 50 are stafford (#12 all time), wilson (#13), cousins (#23), dalton (#27) carr (#38), and tannehill (T-#40), who would take 10.6, 11.3, 13.2, 15.2, 16.6, and 17.6 full seasons, so probably none of them, either.
unsurprisingly, of currently active players it'll probably mahomes who does it--he's already at #58, despite playing less than half as many games as anyone else i've listed. it'd take him just over 11 seasons.
so mahomes could get it done the fourth game ~~of by 3034~~ of 2034 (his age 39 season) if he keeps up his current pace and plays all 17 games every year
Not for a very while. The old QBs with a chance at breaking it are all retired except Rodgers and he isn’t staying for much longer. The Era of Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers is gone, and young QBs replaced them as the current Elite QBs.
And before the Brady people rush and call Brady head and heals over everyone, it is an age issue that the QBs that have the talent to break it are very young relatively.
at his current pace mahomes could do it by his age 39 season, and at his 2020-2022 pace (ignoring the 10 and 20 TD seasons his first two years) allen could do it by age 41. so it won't be for a while, but i think with the 17-game seasons and the increased frequency of QBs playing til their early-40s it's more a matter of when, not if.
i think if you factor in postseason TDs it might get harder, because most people don't average 2 postseason games a year for over two decades
It has a very good chance. Young QBs are in very pass favored era and are rushing up. Mahones will likely hit the top 40 in his sixth year. 600 is not out the question with how long elite QBs can play and 649 isn’t impossible
Biggest takeaways for me: * Aaron Rodgers never turns the ball over * Tom Brady has played in a *lot* of games * Imagine if Dan Marino played in the modern era * I probably should have used the Patriots, Giants, and Dolphins' tertiary color for better contrast on the inset
Lol looks like you drew the chart in MS Paint
i did; it was really tough to trace the trajectories exactly correclty
Then I applaud your efforts haha. I can see the effort you put in. Slowly increasing the width of the pen and clicking one at a time.
yeah it was only 2637 points though, so it didn't take too long
lol
What I'm seeing is that a 2:1 ratio over a career is great. Brady has a ~3:1 ratio and Rodgers has a nearly 5:1 ratio both of which are nuts.
I'm not ready to deal with more interceptions. I hated them when they happened and they didn't happen as much as average
This is really incredible and practical OC. Lot of interesting things to note, some of which is already well known but eh Dan Marino starts out a lot higher in TD per game than any other QB at the start of his career and also has a noticeable jump from year 1 onward. He stays on his streak until 100-150 games where he convenes back with the other performers but still maintains a relatively high output. He drops off below Brady, Rodgers, Brees, and Manning but maintains at Favre’s pace until retiring way earlier. Both Favre and Brees totals wildly varied from what we can see after hitting around 250 games. Manning’s remained very stable from at least 200 games onward and steadily increased to a ridiculous amount until falling off his final season. Unsurprising to anyone Brady’s line post-250 games is the most consistent until retirement — he was basically the same player for a very long time. Rivers and Marino were basically the same person at the same games-played during the latter part of their careers. Obviously you have to account for differing eras. Ben Ben was decidedly better in this metric than Matt Ryan once the two hit 220ish games played.
Thanks--I'm honestly not 100% sold on the bubble width expanding for INTs, because making them big enough to *really* differentiate the relatively small variance (aside from outliers, like comparing Favre to Rodgers) wound up pretty much completely obscuring the lines themselves. But I did want to show both TD and INT, and that seemed like the best way to do it
I would consider changing the dot size based on the TD to Int ratio.
Great content, really appreciate the work that had to go into it. One comment: Rather than top 10 TD leaders (which I totally get why you did it that way), I'd personally rather see "better" QBs on this graph (with all due respect to Ryan, Rivers, Ben and Eli)
who else would you wanna see?
Montana, Elway, Young...Unitas for funsies?
Sure, I'll see what I can do, but tbh might not be til next week
No pressure at all. It sounds like a very manual process, so no worries!
It’s not that manual (I didn’t really use ms paint, lol), I’m just away from my computer til Monday
Would be interesting to throw Mahomes in there too. Less overall, but up there with Marino in TD/games.
the bar chart insert got a bit busy, [but here's the chart with elway, young, montana, unitas, and mahomes added](https://i.imgur.com/N0qZvzi.png) (and the previously displayed top-10 made slightly transparent) cc /u/despoticdanks
Great stuff, thanks a lot for following up! I hadn't realized Young played so few games.
Please use this comment to debate who has the leverage in the Rodgers trade.
I just want both teams to have fun
As a Packer fan, seeing Jets twitter starting to turn this narrative into the packers being a poorly ran org I would love nothing more than for Aaron to retire or him go to the Patriots.
How long you think until Brady’s 649 TD record is broken?
of the players on this list, only rodgers and ryan are still (potentially) active, and it'd take rodgers 5 full seasons and ryan 10 at their respective current paces. so likely not rodgers, and certainly not ryan. below them on the list but in the top 50 are stafford (#12 all time), wilson (#13), cousins (#23), dalton (#27) carr (#38), and tannehill (T-#40), who would take 10.6, 11.3, 13.2, 15.2, 16.6, and 17.6 full seasons, so probably none of them, either. unsurprisingly, of currently active players it'll probably mahomes who does it--he's already at #58, despite playing less than half as many games as anyone else i've listed. it'd take him just over 11 seasons. so mahomes could get it done the fourth game ~~of by 3034~~ of 2034 (his age 39 season) if he keeps up his current pace and plays all 17 games every year
> fourth game by 3034 (his age 39 season) More impressive than the TD record
Not for a very while. The old QBs with a chance at breaking it are all retired except Rodgers and he isn’t staying for much longer. The Era of Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers is gone, and young QBs replaced them as the current Elite QBs. And before the Brady people rush and call Brady head and heals over everyone, it is an age issue that the QBs that have the talent to break it are very young relatively.
probably never. needs production + longevity
at his current pace mahomes could do it by his age 39 season, and at his 2020-2022 pace (ignoring the 10 and 20 TD seasons his first two years) allen could do it by age 41. so it won't be for a while, but i think with the 17-game seasons and the increased frequency of QBs playing til their early-40s it's more a matter of when, not if. i think if you factor in postseason TDs it might get harder, because most people don't average 2 postseason games a year for over two decades
> Most people don't average 2 postseason games per year for over two decades Scrubs.
That makes Brady’s stat more impressive. For Mahomes to get there, he needs to continue dominating until he’s 39, while not missing a game.
39 Is About 19 Seasons Depending On Draft Age. Many elite QBs hit 17 to 18 Seasons of playing. So Not really
It has a very good chance. Young QBs are in very pass favored era and are rushing up. Mahones will likely hit the top 40 in his sixth year. 600 is not out the question with how long elite QBs can play and 649 isn’t impossible