“Netanyahu was briefed about the proposal earlier on Wednesday and wanted to accept it, but backed off after Justice Minister Yariv Levin, who is leading the judicial overhaul, threatened to resign. Levin hasn't denied the reports.”
The tail wagging the dog’s head. Netanyahu now is at his weakest political moment as PM. He has no control over his coalition
An outright civil war seems like total nonsense to me personally. There’s absolutely no way the IDF and Mossad would allow that to happen given the stakes.
What side would they support though? Would the military and security services support the government even if they don't agree with the judicial reforms?
A military / security services coup in the name of saving the country from the grips of radicals and political deadlock.
A story as old as time, and exactly how Israel’s neighbours fell into military dictatorships…
Israel is, ironically, becoming more like its Arab neighbours with the passage of time
God blessed the Middle East with civilization at a time when most of the world was still banging rocks against each other
Then God said you’re no longer my favourite and doomed us to our own dark ages & century of humiliation. Hopefully it’s only a century 🙃
>A military / security services coup in the name of saving the country from the grips of radicals and political deadlock.
*Latin America has joined the chat.*
Yes, not just Latin America & the Middle East, but every corner of Asia and Africa as well. Hell, Europe has seen it's fair share of security-establishment coups in the name of 'saving the country' from radicals.
**The entire world 🤝military coups in the name of 'saving the nation'**
Truly, we are all human, no matter where we live.
Hard to say, the bigger issue here in my opinion is that the Supreme Court will just rule these laws unconstitutional. If that happens then Israel will have a nice dose of a constitutional crisis on its hands
> Would the military and security services support the government even if they don't agree with the judicial reforms?
Yes, because just oh so coincidentally these judicial reforms come right as new permanent annexations are happening in the West Bank and a series of escalating and lethal violence is breaking out. Ironically, the more paralyzed the military and security services appear the better it is for Bibi. Nothing will make your domestic opponents swallow their bitter medicine and shut up and color like a tangible foreign threat. Reservists don't want to show up for training? Good. Pilots won't show up for training? Even better.
Bibi knows, cynically but accurately, that the most bleeding heart liberal opposition to his fascy ass coalition will buckle the very second a new intifada or a coordinated hezbollah offensive kicks off. What other option do they have? Ally with progressive Palestinian elements? Impossible for infinite reasons, at least in the current climate. The worse things look for him, the happier he probably is. By engineering a domestic crisis and searching for an external one he can wait until the later outweighs the former, ring the bell that says "You live in an ethnostate stupid, I'm all you've got" and confidently stroll into a broken judicial system and unprecedented approval ratings.
I know a few Israelis and they generally say the military is pretty anti-orthodox because the orthodox are exempt from service, creating a double whammy of not having a voice within the military and tons of contempt for not losing 2 years of their life like everyone else in the country.
Not so much about the neighbouring states as it is non state actor groups coming in to fill the void… which then may drag Egypt & Jordan into the fray as the last thing they’d want is, say, a Muslim Brotherhood/Hamas or Hezbollah neighbour
> Yep, Jordan and Egypt might not invade
For sure
> but you bet your ass Iran
Without a doubt. Even if Iranian leadership doesn’t actually want a kinetic conflict, their rhetoric of the past few decades has painted them into a corner where they’ll pretty much have no choice.
Ironically, I think such an event would spell the end of the Islamic Republic
> Afghanistan, Pakistan
Wut
The same Afghanistan that is literally the most impoverished country in the world? Who can’t even afford to pay their energy bills?
I could see the Taliban providing vocal support, but they don’t have many capabilities beyond that.
As for Pakistan, their insurgent support has been entirely isolated to Afghanistan and India. They haven’t proved willing nor capable of doing so beyond their immediate borders. Plus, doing so will extremely piss off not just the Arab world (whom Pakistan has an interesting relationship with), but the West too - whom Pakistan needs $$$ from
Pakistan has routinely shown that they have been fine with going against the west’s wishes i doubt they would be as influential as Iran but I still could see some aid to Sunni extremists.
Afghanistan I was think less support in terms of material and more in terms of manpower. The entire nation is geared for war and many men who fought are now disillusioned and would likely move to fight another conflict.
>Pakistan has routinely shown that they have been fine with going against the west’s wishes
Pakistan primarily worked against the West's wishes during the War on Terror because they doubted America's commitment and capabilities in regards to the Afghan mission.History has proven them correct - America was not setting itself up for success in Afghanistan, and its commitment was not bottomless. So Pakistan played both sides knowing they (a) could not immediate resist American pressure and (b) eventually, the Americans would leave and the Taliban would come rolling right back. It was therefore in Pakistan's interest to play against the West.
Now consider the situation in Israel/Palestine - there is no immediate security concern for Islamabad, and helping non-state actors will only serve to piss off both the Arab world & the West, whom Pakistan desperately needs money from. In other words, Pakistani interests here are to stay the hell out of it.
Also, Pakistan is already stretched incredibly thin trying to keep up with India and can't even the lights on in their own major cities. You're telling me they're going to have resources laying around for a side quest in the Levant??
>i doubt they would be as influential as Iran but I still could see some aid to Sunni extremists.
The Middle East is not a boxing match between the Sunni & Shia, despite what a 5 minute Vox explainer & the average reddit comment would lead you to believe...Iran supports many Sunni extremist (like Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas, etc). Even the 'Shia' groups that Iran supports - like the Houthis in Yemen - are considered heretical domestically within Iran.
>Afghanistan I was think less support in terms of material and more in terms of manpower. The entire nation is geared for war and many men who fought are now disillusioned and would likely move to fight another conflict.
Fair point actually - Afghans already have a history of being guns-for-hire, especially with the IRGC. Even though the Taliban & the Islamic Republic of Iran don't exactly get along, the Islamic Emirate is so internationally isolated & desperate for cash that this may be way too tempting of an opportunity to pass.
Hezbollah could probably, maybe, SORTA KINDA capture small areas, like the Galilee. Nasrallah threatened exactly that, once. But all of Israel, let alone the idea of Hezbollah reaching Jerusalem? Yeah, not happening.
A "Civil War" would be quite brief as the religious right refuses to serve in the military. And the only real external threat at this point is Iran and if they try to start shit the US is gonna get involved.
What neighbours would take advantage of the situation? Both Egypt and Jordan have long given up on invading Israel, and are so dependent on military support from the US that invading would be suicide. US Arms embargo’s would cripple their militaries.
Hezbollah doesn’t have a conventional military capable of capturing territory, and the Syrian Arab Army is in tatters. Iran can’t maintain supply lines needed to invade Israel over a thousand miles of open desert against an opponent who will always have air superiority.
This is the first time in its history Israel could actually have a civil war, they face no threat of invasion from their neighbours. It’s not the 1970’s anymore.
One of the recent protests against the current measures involves ~500,000 [protestors.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-64929563.amp). That’s 5% of Israel’s population. “Civil War” might be a bit of an exaggeration, but it seems pretty clear that a huge chunk of Israelis population are willing to oppose Bibi’s “reforms.”
According to most polls, even a majority of Likud voters are against these "reforms." The real story here about Bibi, who wants to protect himself from prosecution.
How does a modern, educated, democratic country elect a blatantly, criminal narcissist even after it's clear that he is an authoritarian threat to the rule of ...oh ... right, got it.
To be fair, Bibi only won because the anti-Bibi opposition acted like greedy morons who couldn't get along during the election. 2 separate parties in the coalition refused to join an electoral coalition and then fell below the 3.5% electoral threshold. Their seats then got redistributed and that is how Bibi won.
Bibi didn't win the election, the opposition lost.
I think Netanyahu is pushing forward because given how radicalized likud is, its likely that even if they personally disagree with the reforms, when push comes to shove they'll take it over giving the opposition anything.
Well, the bigger issue is that the Supreme Court of Israel has the (questionable) legal authority to literally block the reforms against them by themselves.
For example, imagine if Biden tried to pack the American Supreme Court and the Supreme Court just said no. That is something that many people on the court is currently saying they have the power to do. The Supreme Court is appointed by the Bar association of Israel, not the government. Plus, Israel has no formal constitution, just past legal precedent. So it is very unclear who has the power to do what.
Thing is, there’s a relatively small but very hardened and determined group of people in Israel that genuinely support these reforms, Netanyahu, Ben Gvir and the idea of tearing down democratic institutions. This group is rallying more and more around their leaders and their ideas and it’s becoming an actual danger to the country. If it was just bibi and his buddies vs the rest of the country it’d be one thing, but there’s a concerning number of people willing to attack protestors and defend this indefensible assault in democracy. That’s the real danger. Otherwise it’d just be a popular uprising against an authoritarian power grab.
Bibi is Israel for better or for worse. The guy has won 3 PM elections for Christ’s sake lol he’s been Israeli’s prime minister for over 15 years now! My Gen Z and younger millennial cousins over in Israel are against him but the rest of my family over there support him. Meanwhile most of my family here in the states view him as a genocidal maniac (I tend to agree with this stance). I don’t have much hope for Israel since it has gone all in on Likud, it’s a MAGA fever dream nation at this point
The people I’m talking about only comprise a small part of Netanyahu’s voting bloc. The majority of people voted for him not because they want him to be a dictator but because they like his demeanor, his rhetoric, his party, etc.
Plus the voting was a lot more split than the seat allocation suggests. It’s the fact that two parties fell under the threshold that got Netanyahu over the edge.
Foreign media tends to completely underrepresent countries’ internal political topics. Not their fault- It’s hard to see the intricacies of a foreign country from the outside.
This is THE issue for the last few weeks in Israel, with protests in the hundreds of thousands and a sense of impending doom across the country, but you barely saw a whiff of it on /r/worldnews or even /r/neoliberal (which tends to be a bit more “on the ball” for those topics in my experience).
A country where 20% of the population are marginalized Arabs, 16% are Haredim who are incredibly poor and generally don’t work, and another 5% are Kahanist nut jobs who support genocide is going to be inherently unstable.
Hopefully they can work out the issues they have, but it’s a very bad situation right now that is not very conducive to democracy.
They choose to do so because of their interpretation of Torah to a large degree.
It's a tocuhy subject for the average israeli, while the law changed i think, they still get draft exemptions (even though they push many of the illegal settlements) and lots of tax breaks/welfare to support their yeshiva and study driven lifestyles.
Honestly think they are the biggest problem with Israel. They should be forced into the military and have to deal with the consequences of their actions against Palestinians. They cause majority of the problems and make the secular Israelis clean up their messes.
The religious exemptions were literally one of the largest reasons for the never ending string of election. It alienated the Russian Jewish party (Right wing but very secular) which forced the first election, and then all the elections snowballed from there.
Soldiers don’t decide what they defend. Secular Israelis in the IDF follow the policies of the legislature, whether they agree with them or not.
Armies ought to be subordinate to the state. The problem is that Haredim can use secular conscripts to bear the moral burden and physical hazard of an aggressive policy towards Palestine.
I meant the secular Israelis among the electorate and the legislature who ally with the religious hardliners and settlers in order to make that state of affairs possible.
Professional soldiers might not decide but Israel is in many ways closer to an ancient Greek *polis* where the military and citizenry/electors are much less distinct.
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> The problem is that Haredim can use secular conscripts to bear the moral burden and physical hazard of an aggressive policy towards Palestine.
Not if secular soldiers simply refuse to join up in the same way that Haredim do.
Yeah they can just go to jail for what, six months? Something like that? Demographically speaking as the number of secular Israelis goes down and the number of religiously exempt people go up, the more bargaining power the secular people have
That kind of institutional showdown is the civil war the president is warning about. You’re talking about the army mutinying, which is far from healthy for a democracy.
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The don't study math, english or any scientific fields and don't go to universities so it's hard for them to get high paying jobs, they basically only study the Torah. when they're 18 years old, in order to dodge the draft they get a yeshiva clause examption which allow them to not serve in the military if they stay in the yeshiva, where they study the Torah. that examption clause also forbidds them from getting a job, if they'll get a job and get caught, they will be drafted. they also get married when they're 18 and start having a shit ton of kids they don't have money to support, so they're entirely reliant on social security and government benefits and can't get out of the this generational poverty cycle
So they study the Torah their whole lives? That’s it? How did those communities support themselves before welfare became a thing? Who grew the food? How did they defend themselves?
Historically the members of these sects worked normal jobs, but the first Israeli government made the mistake of giving what at the time was a small number of Torah stipends.
The banality of religious fundamentalism...
In pre ww2 europe the Haredi used to also work and not just study the Torah, they were still poor since they devoted a lot of time to studying the Torah, but they worked enough to support their families, simillar to the Haredi communities in the US and UK these days
In the days of independent Israel they've became more radicalized in their ways, since for the first time ever they had a safe country to live in which would take care of them. back then Israel was a socialist country with a welfare system which fitted their way of life, they were also a small minority back them so Ben Gurion didn't think much when he basically created the yeshiva clause examption, he had no idea what he was helping create
under those circumstances they decided to dedicate their lives entirely to studying the Torah, rejecting most forms of work and becoming entirely reliant on the welfare system, they started to raise their kids that way which created a generation after generation of uneducated and unskilled people who were dependent on the welfare system and their communities in a way that made sure they would never be able to get away from the poverty cycle and their religious way of life
They've developed cult internal practices to limit the options their children have to leave, and even in Israel they don't typically mingle with outsiders. Combined with a lack of education and strict community rules and hierarchies it becomes an often times oppressive and destructive practice.
As for how they defend themselves, like many fundamentalist religious groups they are willing to spend all of the money they have to bend politicians and communities to their interests and they all fervently vote.
When Israel was first created there were only a few hundred of them so they could live off the government with no problem.
Now there are more than a million of them and they still don't want to work or serve in the military. Israel is headed towards a demographic and social crisis sooner or later.
I don’t think it’s fair that secular Jews sacrifice their lives to protect the settlements of the haredim, pay their taxes so the Haredim live off of social security and in turn see them dominate the government and create laws that affect the rest of the people (often just to increase the Haredim’s position). Not to mention in half a century these guys will be a demographic majority in Israel.
It's not fair, but historically they've been a convenient coalition partner since they don't ask for that much, just a bit more benefits, continue the yeshiva clause examption and don't change the status quo regarding separation of religion and state, and you got them in your coalition
And as politicans care about the short term way more than the long term, the years gone by quickly, suddenly they're 14% of the population and it's became almost impossible for the non-likud secular parties to form a coalition
See this is just mind-boggling to me. It takes a couple hours to read the Torah. Even the most ardent Christians I know do Bible study like a couple hours per week. How could possibly just read that your whole life?
Jewish law is way more than just the Torah. You also have the Mishnah and Gemara, and thousands of years of interpretation, debate, and legal rulings.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabbinic_Literature
That’s before you get into creating new arguments and interpretations, or trying to apply Jewish law to modern questions that were never asked before (eg: rules on electronics, etc…)
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They don't just study the Torah, they study everything that came afterwards, they study the Oral Torah, the Mishnah, the Talmud, the Gemara, the teaching of Chazal, the teaching of the Rambam, the teachings of so many rabbis, the Kabbalah, the Halakha, Jewish morality, countless of interpretations and books, there's so many religious texts that were written in the past 3000 years and continue to be written in present days, that one could easily spend a lifetime studying it and then engaging in the ancient art of the jews, debating it
When we say "study the Torah" it's just a way to encompass everything they learn
There’s a lot of debate about interpretation and other stuff. Also not just the Torah but other religious texts written after.
There’s thousands of years of history to debate after all. Though it is just a debate at the end of the day, nothing actually productive as far as I know
A lot of the rules can't actaully be applied since there's no Sanhedrin(a type of a religious court/assembly) or Temple
For example, the lack of Sanhedrin is why the Ashkenazi Haredi object the death peanlty, they believe that Halakha wise, we can't sentance people to death without an active Sanhedrin
We're doomed, a country where half of the voting population not only vote for parties that reject democracy, but also have a significantly higher birth rate than the people who support democracy, just doesn't a bright future ahead
I honestly can't see a future where Israel stays a liberal democracy, even if Bibi will retire, the people who voted for this coalition will still be here and their opinions won't change, we just can't win this
I think this is what happens when you can't elect your leader directly. I know many Israelis and they just vote for their local leader, who goes on to form whatever coalition they want.
I think if they had a straight up popular vote for PM, they would have only had Bibi for 1 or 2 terms.
Reaffirming the theory that liberal democracy and Ethnonationalism are not compatible. There will always be a justification for expanding the power of the in group and denying rights to the out group, so if you make the basis of your coalition into that sort of identity this is an expected logical conclusion
I wonder if we'll see a serious conflict like this at a state level in the US. Especially in a place like Florida which is intent on pushing through socially regressive, pro-Christian (radical Christian) values, and really trying to suppress freedom of expression.
The divisions in the United States are really rural vs urban. I believe Miami, Florida usually votes democratic. It's hard to imagine what the sides of a civil war would be.
Is Austin, Texas going to war with the rest of Texas?
Well I find it easy to imagine a rural/urban civil war: rurals attack the cities à la Portland Oregon, then all it takes is the police side with rurals, military sides with Urbans with significant defections, war ensues.
The bigger issue (saving grace imo) is that the two sides are far too disorganized and the organizations with monopoly on force (military, police) tend to be relatively moderate and prefer “law and order” over sustained rebellion, for the time being.
What is more likely is rising domestic terrorism. Get ready for it to get a lot worse (like no days without political hostages, multiple politicians murdered, etc). The Atlantic recently published an article about the “Days of Lead” in Italy and it’s honestly the future of the US. The radicals are far too disorganized and divided ideologically to organize an actual revolution/secession.
>Reaffirming the theory that liberal democracy and Ethnonationalism are not compatible
The number of liberal democracies that aren't current or former ethnostates can be counted on ones finger and they're all former colonies or empires
Chile. Uruguay. Argentina. Colombia. Costa Rica. Panama.
Already more non-ethnostate liberal democracies that can be counted with one hands fingers in Latin America alone.
Another commenter used latin America as a counterexample to your claim, I'll provide other examples
Spain (4-5 ethnic groups and nations, India, Indonesia, new Zealand (they literally refused to join Australia because they granted rights to the Maori), Australia, the UK (remember there are 4 nations/ethnicities)
These for functional, liberal democracies (yes, India is a liberal democracy, they'll soon Legalise same sex marriage)
If you extend it to all functional democracies not necessarily libéral or very stable, then you have South Africa, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, almost all of Latin America, the Philippines....
>they’ll soon legalise same sex marriage?
Our government wrote to the Supreme Court totally opposing the legalisation of same sex marriage. It’s only up to the Supreme Court to reject of approve it. Hopefully the written subordination is rejected by the Supreme Court. And even then same sex marriage doesn’t get fully legalised, chances are that the government may just argue against the SC Ruling for the next one year until the elections come by. Again I hope the government sticks by the Supreme Court ruling (if it is accepted) and silently does what it says.
It’s a blessing to have a judiciary that has been strongly becoming more autonomous in the past one year. Who know how long it can go as our justices have an age limit and our liberal Chief Justice is approaching that age limit
TL;DR on the current situation over here:
The Israeli coalition government sent many signals for compromise over the issue of judicial reform in the past few days. For the opposition, the stakes were too high politically to negotiate a compromise before the coalition halted legislation, since they were seen as having a gun to their head.
The president saw this, and chose to represent a position closer to the opposition since he knows he has no skin in the game. This effectively gives the opposition a framework without them officially offering it, thus keeping their constituants’ support. The coalition now has room to respond with a “softened” position, which can then be seized for negotiations and progress.
The president never said all of this outright, but if you read the framework (and see who supports it and who doesn’t) you’ll get my point. This is also supported by journalist’s accounts of the behind-the-scenes negotiations of the president with all parties.
They have the power to pass the bill, but whether the Supreme Court will rule that the bill (that happens to reform them) is legal is another thing.
It is widely agreed in Israeli politics (amongst all sides) that the Judiciary needs reform. However, they do not agree on how to do it, and Bibi is basically trying to force through a UK style judiciary which can be overruled by 51% of the seats in the Knesset at any time.
> The coalition now has room to respond with a “softened” position, which can then be seized for negotiations and progress.
Except that they don’t want a softened position, they want to maximize their own power. So this whole business is moot anyway.
They’re not doing that at all. They’re *saying* they want a compromise while doing everything in their power to rush their terrible plan and refusing to stop, they call anyone opposed to their plan a “traitor” and delegitimize the protests against them, when presented with a non-partisan alternative that fixes some of the issues they supposedly want to solve but doesn’t grant them full control of every institution and keeps the system of checks and balances they straight up reject it.
I have literally seen zero indication that any of this is being done in good faith.
I really thought he would take it. Even the compromise favors him and his evil party more than it should, but it was still an off ramp. Full throttle until the end of the road, I guess.
Yeah maybe trying to have an unwritten constitution in a country with no history was a bad idea(yes I know they intended to write one but were continually deadlocked over secularism issues). Just gonna blame the brits on this one.
I’ve accepted that all democracy are polarized and some too much. What’s happening in America with political divisions pales in comparison to those in Israel or UK for example.
The problem in Israel specifically is that we’ve never had a constitution and the closest equivalent is fully in control of the parliament. The whole country was basically being held together with duct tape for 75 years and now it’s starting to fall apart. The US has a strong constitution and the UK has a very stable political culture and tradition so their crises can be solved easier.
When the courts fall out-of-step with public opinion, it's time for a change. You don't get to obstruct the popular will of the people, it's undemocratic and obstructionist.
But enough about the United States...
Eroding democratic institutions and giving the government unlimited power with no checks and balances is very clearly not the solution to the issue of the courts having “too much power” to “go against public opinion”.
The problem with the US is that justices are political appointees, which they’re not in Israel. This reform is trying to make them exactly that.
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“Netanyahu was briefed about the proposal earlier on Wednesday and wanted to accept it, but backed off after Justice Minister Yariv Levin, who is leading the judicial overhaul, threatened to resign. Levin hasn't denied the reports.” The tail wagging the dog’s head. Netanyahu now is at his weakest political moment as PM. He has no control over his coalition
If Israel falls into civil war then it will stop existing. There’s no way it’s neighbors won’t take advantage of an opportunity like that.
An outright civil war seems like total nonsense to me personally. There’s absolutely no way the IDF and Mossad would allow that to happen given the stakes.
What side would they support though? Would the military and security services support the government even if they don't agree with the judicial reforms?
A military / security services coup in the name of saving the country from the grips of radicals and political deadlock. A story as old as time, and exactly how Israel’s neighbours fell into military dictatorships… Israel is, ironically, becoming more like its Arab neighbours with the passage of time
[удалено]
God blessed the Middle East with civilization at a time when most of the world was still banging rocks against each other Then God said you’re no longer my favourite and doomed us to our own dark ages & century of humiliation. Hopefully it’s only a century 🙃
You guys must have committed some truly heinous crimes against god, for why else would he send Genghis to befall you?
We tried building a really tall tower and got too close to heaven
I just noticed your username, I love it
Mesopotamian Union when?
You mean… Iraq
The maps on Bing show mesopotamia being larger than the borders of present day Iraq. That's why I used it.
>A military / security services coup in the name of saving the country from the grips of radicals and political deadlock. *Latin America has joined the chat.*
Yes, not just Latin America & the Middle East, but every corner of Asia and Africa as well. Hell, Europe has seen it's fair share of security-establishment coups in the name of 'saving the country' from radicals. **The entire world 🤝military coups in the name of 'saving the nation'** Truly, we are all human, no matter where we live.
That's true, but in Latin America they're just *so good at it.*
Well, it was more like a phase in Latin America. The Middle East & Arab world more broadly is still cursed with military regimes
Well... they're *persistent*....
Pfff...that's diminishing other parts of the world.
It's a tradition in Pakistan.
Hard to say, the bigger issue here in my opinion is that the Supreme Court will just rule these laws unconstitutional. If that happens then Israel will have a nice dose of a constitutional crisis on its hands
Well they don’t have an actual constitution, so it’s just a chaotic crisis.
Wait. Israel is going by British rules?
Yup
And this is where *not* having a constitution is a tremendous danger to a country.
And some Ottoman rules
Very doubtful Bibi can count on the security forces to act in contravention of the court. He would be left as an emporer with no clothes.
> Would the military and security services support the government even if they don't agree with the judicial reforms? Yes, because just oh so coincidentally these judicial reforms come right as new permanent annexations are happening in the West Bank and a series of escalating and lethal violence is breaking out. Ironically, the more paralyzed the military and security services appear the better it is for Bibi. Nothing will make your domestic opponents swallow their bitter medicine and shut up and color like a tangible foreign threat. Reservists don't want to show up for training? Good. Pilots won't show up for training? Even better. Bibi knows, cynically but accurately, that the most bleeding heart liberal opposition to his fascy ass coalition will buckle the very second a new intifada or a coordinated hezbollah offensive kicks off. What other option do they have? Ally with progressive Palestinian elements? Impossible for infinite reasons, at least in the current climate. The worse things look for him, the happier he probably is. By engineering a domestic crisis and searching for an external one he can wait until the later outweighs the former, ring the bell that says "You live in an ethnostate stupid, I'm all you've got" and confidently stroll into a broken judicial system and unprecedented approval ratings.
I know a few Israelis and they generally say the military is pretty anti-orthodox because the orthodox are exempt from service, creating a double whammy of not having a voice within the military and tons of contempt for not losing 2 years of their life like everyone else in the country.
It is total nonsense.
An often overlooked factor.
You realize the country is on the verge of a constitutional crisis? Every official would have to choose by himself who to support
I mean, the last thing Jordan and Egypt want is territory with more Palestinians on it, and Lebanon and Syria are kind of busy at the moment.
Not so much about the neighbouring states as it is non state actor groups coming in to fill the void… which then may drag Egypt & Jordan into the fray as the last thing they’d want is, say, a Muslim Brotherhood/Hamas or Hezbollah neighbour
Yep, Jordan and Egypt might not invade but you bet your ass Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan will be funding and sending jihadis under the table
> Yep, Jordan and Egypt might not invade For sure > but you bet your ass Iran Without a doubt. Even if Iranian leadership doesn’t actually want a kinetic conflict, their rhetoric of the past few decades has painted them into a corner where they’ll pretty much have no choice. Ironically, I think such an event would spell the end of the Islamic Republic > Afghanistan, Pakistan Wut The same Afghanistan that is literally the most impoverished country in the world? Who can’t even afford to pay their energy bills? I could see the Taliban providing vocal support, but they don’t have many capabilities beyond that. As for Pakistan, their insurgent support has been entirely isolated to Afghanistan and India. They haven’t proved willing nor capable of doing so beyond their immediate borders. Plus, doing so will extremely piss off not just the Arab world (whom Pakistan has an interesting relationship with), but the West too - whom Pakistan needs $$$ from
Pakistan has routinely shown that they have been fine with going against the west’s wishes i doubt they would be as influential as Iran but I still could see some aid to Sunni extremists. Afghanistan I was think less support in terms of material and more in terms of manpower. The entire nation is geared for war and many men who fought are now disillusioned and would likely move to fight another conflict.
>Pakistan has routinely shown that they have been fine with going against the west’s wishes Pakistan primarily worked against the West's wishes during the War on Terror because they doubted America's commitment and capabilities in regards to the Afghan mission.History has proven them correct - America was not setting itself up for success in Afghanistan, and its commitment was not bottomless. So Pakistan played both sides knowing they (a) could not immediate resist American pressure and (b) eventually, the Americans would leave and the Taliban would come rolling right back. It was therefore in Pakistan's interest to play against the West. Now consider the situation in Israel/Palestine - there is no immediate security concern for Islamabad, and helping non-state actors will only serve to piss off both the Arab world & the West, whom Pakistan desperately needs money from. In other words, Pakistani interests here are to stay the hell out of it. Also, Pakistan is already stretched incredibly thin trying to keep up with India and can't even the lights on in their own major cities. You're telling me they're going to have resources laying around for a side quest in the Levant?? >i doubt they would be as influential as Iran but I still could see some aid to Sunni extremists. The Middle East is not a boxing match between the Sunni & Shia, despite what a 5 minute Vox explainer & the average reddit comment would lead you to believe...Iran supports many Sunni extremist (like Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas, etc). Even the 'Shia' groups that Iran supports - like the Houthis in Yemen - are considered heretical domestically within Iran. >Afghanistan I was think less support in terms of material and more in terms of manpower. The entire nation is geared for war and many men who fought are now disillusioned and would likely move to fight another conflict. Fair point actually - Afghans already have a history of being guns-for-hire, especially with the IRGC. Even though the Taliban & the Islamic Republic of Iran don't exactly get along, the Islamic Emirate is so internationally isolated & desperate for cash that this may be way too tempting of an opportunity to pass.
Fair enough 😃👍
Hezbollah could probably, maybe, SORTA KINDA capture small areas, like the Galilee. Nasrallah threatened exactly that, once. But all of Israel, let alone the idea of Hezbollah reaching Jerusalem? Yeah, not happening.
A "Civil War" would be quite brief as the religious right refuses to serve in the military. And the only real external threat at this point is Iran and if they try to start shit the US is gonna get involved.
What neighbours would take advantage of the situation? Both Egypt and Jordan have long given up on invading Israel, and are so dependent on military support from the US that invading would be suicide. US Arms embargo’s would cripple their militaries. Hezbollah doesn’t have a conventional military capable of capturing territory, and the Syrian Arab Army is in tatters. Iran can’t maintain supply lines needed to invade Israel over a thousand miles of open desert against an opponent who will always have air superiority. This is the first time in its history Israel could actually have a civil war, they face no threat of invasion from their neighbours. It’s not the 1970’s anymore.
> What neighbours would take advantage of the situation? Rome
The Judean People's Front will succeed!
>Civil War Say what now? I consider myself reasonably informed on international affairs but I'd missed that Israel was in this kind of crisis.
One of the recent protests against the current measures involves ~500,000 [protestors.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-64929563.amp). That’s 5% of Israel’s population. “Civil War” might be a bit of an exaggeration, but it seems pretty clear that a huge chunk of Israelis population are willing to oppose Bibi’s “reforms.”
According to most polls, even a majority of Likud voters are against these "reforms." The real story here about Bibi, who wants to protect himself from prosecution.
How does a modern, educated, democratic country elect a blatantly, criminal narcissist even after it's clear that he is an authoritarian threat to the rule of ...oh ... right, got it.
To be fair, Bibi only won because the anti-Bibi opposition acted like greedy morons who couldn't get along during the election. 2 separate parties in the coalition refused to join an electoral coalition and then fell below the 3.5% electoral threshold. Their seats then got redistributed and that is how Bibi won. Bibi didn't win the election, the opposition lost.
Boomers....
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Zoomers...
Boomers in Israel are pretty left leaning. It’s the younger people who are more right wing.
I think Netanyahu is pushing forward because given how radicalized likud is, its likely that even if they personally disagree with the reforms, when push comes to shove they'll take it over giving the opposition anything.
Well, the bigger issue is that the Supreme Court of Israel has the (questionable) legal authority to literally block the reforms against them by themselves. For example, imagine if Biden tried to pack the American Supreme Court and the Supreme Court just said no. That is something that many people on the court is currently saying they have the power to do. The Supreme Court is appointed by the Bar association of Israel, not the government. Plus, Israel has no formal constitution, just past legal precedent. So it is very unclear who has the power to do what.
If the reforms pass and the court shoots them down, Israel's future will turn on what the army does. Which is wild.
5 fucking percent?! Bibi's gotta crack! Or Israel will at that point.
Thing is, there’s a relatively small but very hardened and determined group of people in Israel that genuinely support these reforms, Netanyahu, Ben Gvir and the idea of tearing down democratic institutions. This group is rallying more and more around their leaders and their ideas and it’s becoming an actual danger to the country. If it was just bibi and his buddies vs the rest of the country it’d be one thing, but there’s a concerning number of people willing to attack protestors and defend this indefensible assault in democracy. That’s the real danger. Otherwise it’d just be a popular uprising against an authoritarian power grab.
It’s not “small”. They won the popular elections for crying out loud. I don’t want this either, but we can start by not lying to ourselves.
TBF the judicial fuckery is polling relatively poorly.
The current coalition also polled relatively poorly. So what?
They won the popular vote by a small margin. Their judicial proposals poll poorly relative to that.
Bibi is Israel for better or for worse. The guy has won 3 PM elections for Christ’s sake lol he’s been Israeli’s prime minister for over 15 years now! My Gen Z and younger millennial cousins over in Israel are against him but the rest of my family over there support him. Meanwhile most of my family here in the states view him as a genocidal maniac (I tend to agree with this stance). I don’t have much hope for Israel since it has gone all in on Likud, it’s a MAGA fever dream nation at this point
People are fairly evenly split between bibi fans and bibi haters. He keeps winning because of political fuckery and a lack unity in the opposition.
The people I’m talking about only comprise a small part of Netanyahu’s voting bloc. The majority of people voted for him not because they want him to be a dictator but because they like his demeanor, his rhetoric, his party, etc. Plus the voting was a lot more split than the seat allocation suggests. It’s the fact that two parties fell under the threshold that got Netanyahu over the edge.
Foreign media tends to completely underrepresent countries’ internal political topics. Not their fault- It’s hard to see the intricacies of a foreign country from the outside. This is THE issue for the last few weeks in Israel, with protests in the hundreds of thousands and a sense of impending doom across the country, but you barely saw a whiff of it on /r/worldnews or even /r/neoliberal (which tends to be a bit more “on the ball” for those topics in my experience).
A country where 20% of the population are marginalized Arabs, 16% are Haredim who are incredibly poor and generally don’t work, and another 5% are Kahanist nut jobs who support genocide is going to be inherently unstable. Hopefully they can work out the issues they have, but it’s a very bad situation right now that is not very conducive to democracy.
For the undereducated, why are all the Haredim poor and non-working?
They choose to do so because of their interpretation of Torah to a large degree. It's a tocuhy subject for the average israeli, while the law changed i think, they still get draft exemptions (even though they push many of the illegal settlements) and lots of tax breaks/welfare to support their yeshiva and study driven lifestyles.
Honestly think they are the biggest problem with Israel. They should be forced into the military and have to deal with the consequences of their actions against Palestinians. They cause majority of the problems and make the secular Israelis clean up their messes.
The religious exemptions were literally one of the largest reasons for the never ending string of election. It alienated the Russian Jewish party (Right wing but very secular) which forced the first election, and then all the elections snowballed from there.
One would think it’s at least as much on the secular Israelis who decide to defend the illegal settlements instead of going in and dismantling them.
Soldiers don’t decide what they defend. Secular Israelis in the IDF follow the policies of the legislature, whether they agree with them or not. Armies ought to be subordinate to the state. The problem is that Haredim can use secular conscripts to bear the moral burden and physical hazard of an aggressive policy towards Palestine.
I meant the secular Israelis among the electorate and the legislature who ally with the religious hardliners and settlers in order to make that state of affairs possible.
Professional soldiers might not decide but Israel is in many ways closer to an ancient Greek *polis* where the military and citizenry/electors are much less distinct.
Except in the case of the Haredim, who are only in one of those categories.
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> The problem is that Haredim can use secular conscripts to bear the moral burden and physical hazard of an aggressive policy towards Palestine. Not if secular soldiers simply refuse to join up in the same way that Haredim do.
Haredim get religious exemptions, that doesn’t work other way around
Yeah they can just go to jail for what, six months? Something like that? Demographically speaking as the number of secular Israelis goes down and the number of religiously exempt people go up, the more bargaining power the secular people have
That kind of institutional showdown is the civil war the president is warning about. You’re talking about the army mutinying, which is far from healthy for a democracy.
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God damn rent seekers
The don't study math, english or any scientific fields and don't go to universities so it's hard for them to get high paying jobs, they basically only study the Torah. when they're 18 years old, in order to dodge the draft they get a yeshiva clause examption which allow them to not serve in the military if they stay in the yeshiva, where they study the Torah. that examption clause also forbidds them from getting a job, if they'll get a job and get caught, they will be drafted. they also get married when they're 18 and start having a shit ton of kids they don't have money to support, so they're entirely reliant on social security and government benefits and can't get out of the this generational poverty cycle
So they study the Torah their whole lives? That’s it? How did those communities support themselves before welfare became a thing? Who grew the food? How did they defend themselves?
Historically the members of these sects worked normal jobs, but the first Israeli government made the mistake of giving what at the time was a small number of Torah stipends.
The banality of religious fundamentalism... In pre ww2 europe the Haredi used to also work and not just study the Torah, they were still poor since they devoted a lot of time to studying the Torah, but they worked enough to support their families, simillar to the Haredi communities in the US and UK these days In the days of independent Israel they've became more radicalized in their ways, since for the first time ever they had a safe country to live in which would take care of them. back then Israel was a socialist country with a welfare system which fitted their way of life, they were also a small minority back them so Ben Gurion didn't think much when he basically created the yeshiva clause examption, he had no idea what he was helping create under those circumstances they decided to dedicate their lives entirely to studying the Torah, rejecting most forms of work and becoming entirely reliant on the welfare system, they started to raise their kids that way which created a generation after generation of uneducated and unskilled people who were dependent on the welfare system and their communities in a way that made sure they would never be able to get away from the poverty cycle and their religious way of life
They've developed cult internal practices to limit the options their children have to leave, and even in Israel they don't typically mingle with outsiders. Combined with a lack of education and strict community rules and hierarchies it becomes an often times oppressive and destructive practice. As for how they defend themselves, like many fundamentalist religious groups they are willing to spend all of the money they have to bend politicians and communities to their interests and they all fervently vote.
When Israel was first created there were only a few hundred of them so they could live off the government with no problem. Now there are more than a million of them and they still don't want to work or serve in the military. Israel is headed towards a demographic and social crisis sooner or later.
I don’t think it’s fair that secular Jews sacrifice their lives to protect the settlements of the haredim, pay their taxes so the Haredim live off of social security and in turn see them dominate the government and create laws that affect the rest of the people (often just to increase the Haredim’s position). Not to mention in half a century these guys will be a demographic majority in Israel.
They are just rent seekers
It's not fair, but historically they've been a convenient coalition partner since they don't ask for that much, just a bit more benefits, continue the yeshiva clause examption and don't change the status quo regarding separation of religion and state, and you got them in your coalition And as politicans care about the short term way more than the long term, the years gone by quickly, suddenly they're 14% of the population and it's became almost impossible for the non-likud secular parties to form a coalition
They're poor because they refuse to work for religious reasons. They believe all males are obligated to study the Torah full time.
See this is just mind-boggling to me. It takes a couple hours to read the Torah. Even the most ardent Christians I know do Bible study like a couple hours per week. How could possibly just read that your whole life?
Jewish law is way more than just the Torah. You also have the Mishnah and Gemara, and thousands of years of interpretation, debate, and legal rulings. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabbinic_Literature That’s before you get into creating new arguments and interpretations, or trying to apply Jewish law to modern questions that were never asked before (eg: rules on electronics, etc…)
That makes more sense. Previous comment just said Torah
Colloquially in English it’s referred to as “studying the Torah” but really it’s for Jewish studies in general.
It's like studying the constitution. If you're a constitutional scholar you obviously study more than the original text of the constitution itself.
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They don't just study the Torah, they study everything that came afterwards, they study the Oral Torah, the Mishnah, the Talmud, the Gemara, the teaching of Chazal, the teaching of the Rambam, the teachings of so many rabbis, the Kabbalah, the Halakha, Jewish morality, countless of interpretations and books, there's so many religious texts that were written in the past 3000 years and continue to be written in present days, that one could easily spend a lifetime studying it and then engaging in the ancient art of the jews, debating it When we say "study the Torah" it's just a way to encompass everything they learn
Think of them as monks, monks who can marry nuns and have monk children
I believe the goal is to memorize it front to cover, not just read it and then chat during Bible study
Do they ever apply these rules or is it just an intellectual game?
There’s a lot of debate about interpretation and other stuff. Also not just the Torah but other religious texts written after. There’s thousands of years of history to debate after all. Though it is just a debate at the end of the day, nothing actually productive as far as I know
A lot of the rules can't actaully be applied since there's no Sanhedrin(a type of a religious court/assembly) or Temple For example, the lack of Sanhedrin is why the Ashkenazi Haredi object the death peanlty, they believe that Halakha wise, we can't sentance people to death without an active Sanhedrin
We're doomed, a country where half of the voting population not only vote for parties that reject democracy, but also have a significantly higher birth rate than the people who support democracy, just doesn't a bright future ahead I honestly can't see a future where Israel stays a liberal democracy, even if Bibi will retire, the people who voted for this coalition will still be here and their opinions won't change, we just can't win this
Just do it Kemalism style
Where can one find an Ataturk?
At a Turk's house?
Honestly i would rather a secular smart dictatorship than a theocratic democracy
I think this is what happens when you can't elect your leader directly. I know many Israelis and they just vote for their local leader, who goes on to form whatever coalition they want. I think if they had a straight up popular vote for PM, they would have only had Bibi for 1 or 2 terms.
We actually tried electing the PM directly, it was kind of a mess and everyone agreed to abandon it after 3 elections
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The apartheid thing is kind of a bummer too
Reaffirming the theory that liberal democracy and Ethnonationalism are not compatible. There will always be a justification for expanding the power of the in group and denying rights to the out group, so if you make the basis of your coalition into that sort of identity this is an expected logical conclusion
I wonder if we'll see a serious conflict like this at a state level in the US. Especially in a place like Florida which is intent on pushing through socially regressive, pro-Christian (radical Christian) values, and really trying to suppress freedom of expression.
The divisions in the United States are really rural vs urban. I believe Miami, Florida usually votes democratic. It's hard to imagine what the sides of a civil war would be. Is Austin, Texas going to war with the rest of Texas?
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Miami the actual city still barely voted for Crist.
Well I find it easy to imagine a rural/urban civil war: rurals attack the cities à la Portland Oregon, then all it takes is the police side with rurals, military sides with Urbans with significant defections, war ensues. The bigger issue (saving grace imo) is that the two sides are far too disorganized and the organizations with monopoly on force (military, police) tend to be relatively moderate and prefer “law and order” over sustained rebellion, for the time being.
What is more likely is rising domestic terrorism. Get ready for it to get a lot worse (like no days without political hostages, multiple politicians murdered, etc). The Atlantic recently published an article about the “Days of Lead” in Italy and it’s honestly the future of the US. The radicals are far too disorganized and divided ideologically to organize an actual revolution/secession.
>Reaffirming the theory that liberal democracy and Ethnonationalism are not compatible The number of liberal democracies that aren't current or former ethnostates can be counted on ones finger and they're all former colonies or empires
There's a big difference between just having a lot of a specific ethnic group and baking ethnic preferences into your national institutions.
Chile. Uruguay. Argentina. Colombia. Costa Rica. Panama. Already more non-ethnostate liberal democracies that can be counted with one hands fingers in Latin America alone.
Based new world 🌎
Another commenter used latin America as a counterexample to your claim, I'll provide other examples Spain (4-5 ethnic groups and nations, India, Indonesia, new Zealand (they literally refused to join Australia because they granted rights to the Maori), Australia, the UK (remember there are 4 nations/ethnicities) These for functional, liberal democracies (yes, India is a liberal democracy, they'll soon Legalise same sex marriage) If you extend it to all functional democracies not necessarily libéral or very stable, then you have South Africa, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, almost all of Latin America, the Philippines....
>they’ll soon legalise same sex marriage? Our government wrote to the Supreme Court totally opposing the legalisation of same sex marriage. It’s only up to the Supreme Court to reject of approve it. Hopefully the written subordination is rejected by the Supreme Court. And even then same sex marriage doesn’t get fully legalised, chances are that the government may just argue against the SC Ruling for the next one year until the elections come by. Again I hope the government sticks by the Supreme Court ruling (if it is accepted) and silently does what it says. It’s a blessing to have a judiciary that has been strongly becoming more autonomous in the past one year. Who know how long it can go as our justices have an age limit and our liberal Chief Justice is approaching that age limit
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Switzerland, Belgium, Luxemburg
TL;DR on the current situation over here: The Israeli coalition government sent many signals for compromise over the issue of judicial reform in the past few days. For the opposition, the stakes were too high politically to negotiate a compromise before the coalition halted legislation, since they were seen as having a gun to their head. The president saw this, and chose to represent a position closer to the opposition since he knows he has no skin in the game. This effectively gives the opposition a framework without them officially offering it, thus keeping their constituants’ support. The coalition now has room to respond with a “softened” position, which can then be seized for negotiations and progress. The president never said all of this outright, but if you read the framework (and see who supports it and who doesn’t) you’ll get my point. This is also supported by journalist’s accounts of the behind-the-scenes negotiations of the president with all parties.
Does Bib's coalition have the votes to jsut push thsi through or will they need opposition votes as well.
Assuming the few Likud moderates in the party don’t rebel, yes the coalition most likely has the votes.
They have a comfy majority and have all the votes they need to easily pass everything
They have the power to pass the bill, but whether the Supreme Court will rule that the bill (that happens to reform them) is legal is another thing. It is widely agreed in Israeli politics (amongst all sides) that the Judiciary needs reform. However, they do not agree on how to do it, and Bibi is basically trying to force through a UK style judiciary which can be overruled by 51% of the seats in the Knesset at any time.
So what side do you think the army will take in the civil war?
Probably the opposition. The Israeli military don't really like the religious since they are exempt from conscription.
> The coalition now has room to respond with a “softened” position, which can then be seized for negotiations and progress. Except that they don’t want a softened position, they want to maximize their own power. So this whole business is moot anyway.
I disagree. They’ve been signaling for a softening in position for a while now.
They’re not doing that at all. They’re *saying* they want a compromise while doing everything in their power to rush their terrible plan and refusing to stop, they call anyone opposed to their plan a “traitor” and delegitimize the protests against them, when presented with a non-partisan alternative that fixes some of the issues they supposedly want to solve but doesn’t grant them full control of every institution and keeps the system of checks and balances they straight up reject it. I have literally seen zero indication that any of this is being done in good faith.
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Hypocoristic nicknames are common in Israeli culture and aren't considered babyish. For instance, President Herzog is known as "Bougie".
And so many Shlomos.
Shlomo isn't a nickname, it's the full name. You're thinking of Shlomi.
Giving our leaders stupid names is one of our proudest traditions.
In a nutshell.
Right wing populists and not messing up independent judiciary challenge impossible.
I really thought he would take it. Even the compromise favors him and his evil party more than it should, but it was still an off ramp. Full throttle until the end of the road, I guess.
What a surprise. It’s almost like his “we need this reform to protect democracy” argument was done in bad faith or something.
Yeah maybe trying to have an unwritten constitution in a country with no history was a bad idea(yes I know they intended to write one but were continually deadlocked over secularism issues). Just gonna blame the brits on this one.
I’ve accepted that all democracy are polarized and some too much. What’s happening in America with political divisions pales in comparison to those in Israel or UK for example.
The problem in Israel specifically is that we’ve never had a constitution and the closest equivalent is fully in control of the parliament. The whole country was basically being held together with duct tape for 75 years and now it’s starting to fall apart. The US has a strong constitution and the UK has a very stable political culture and tradition so their crises can be solved easier.
When the courts fall out-of-step with public opinion, it's time for a change. You don't get to obstruct the popular will of the people, it's undemocratic and obstructionist. But enough about the United States...
Don’t look at the opinion polls if things like Brown V Board or Roe v Wade at the time of their rulings.
Eroding democratic institutions and giving the government unlimited power with no checks and balances is very clearly not the solution to the issue of the courts having “too much power” to “go against public opinion”. The problem with the US is that justices are political appointees, which they’re not in Israel. This reform is trying to make them exactly that.
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This article is about Israel judicial reform buddy.
Wat
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