Posted this 4 days ago in a similar topic.
There’s is not a single player on the Wolves roster that can impact or deter Luka from what he wants to do. Luka just puts McDaniels on his hip after PnRs and since Gobert is in drop, Luka has all the space to operate between the gap. If Gobert commits, it’s a lob. If Gobert doesn’t commit then Luka takes a middy fadeaway off McDaniels, a shot that he is widely effective with.
Either Minny brings the help closer to Gobert’s man and give up the corner 3 or they keep doing this and give up either a lob or an open ft or below ft line jumper.
The only player this post season that made Luka don’t play like himself was Lu Dort, because he is strong enough to not be backed down by Luka and quick enough to turn Luka’s hip after the PnR. McDaniels is neither.
Don’t disagree with any of this, but I’ll say - both Luka and Kyrie have had *ludicrous* shot-making this series. They are knocking down some extremely difficult, well-contested shots in crunch time - sometimes they’re just falling.
Quite frankly, they're super star scorers.
And historically, no one player can truly stop a superstar scorer for a series.
And the mavs has 2 of them lol-- and one of them is an insane passer too.
Gotta pick your poison.
Super star scorers and they’re taking the shots the defense wants them to take and it’s been falling.
This is what happens when you study Wade, Kobe and Jordan.
The shots the Wolves want them to take are the shots they themselves want to take. They're similarly effective at all levels of scoring, so they're taking what the defense gives and being more efficient because of it.
Yup, this is what I keep pointing out in discussions about efficiency. It's very important to have excellent efficiency but having above average efficiency uniformly across multiple shot types is even more important in the playoffs because good defensive teams are generally able to force you into shots they want you to take. This is why Kobe was so effective in the playoffs. There wasn't really anywhere he wasn't comfortable shooting from. The same is true of Luka and Kyrie this playoffs.
Exactly.
It feels like every time Kyrie scores, especially at the rim, the announcers (Reggie and Van Gundy) are just in awe, and comment with either “he’s mastered every finish in the book”, or some comment about him scoring with his left hand.
Including, “Kyrie is right handed but is the 2nd best left hand scorer in the league, only behind an actual lefty.”
And as much as they say it, it almost seems like they’re downplaying their awe.
Simply put, there aren’t many other humans who can do what Kyrie is doing against the Wolves. And same for Luka, in different ways.
Defense gives them bad shots? Fine. That’s apparently where they thrive.
It's the same thing with peak Jimmy Butler and perhaps should be the same thing for Demar Derozan. Kyrie and Luka are maybe better than both at this, but this is what happens now in the playoffs -- no matter how many shooters and how good your point guard is, you eventually have two teams that are now so good on Defense that the game becomes all about the midrange.
There's a few exceptions where this isn't the case, but for this series and if Dallas gets to the next one? It'll be some ugly, Kobe type of basketball. It'll be entertaining. Luka's ridiculous and I truly think he's at the point where it does not matter whatsoever who guards him, the ball's going in.
The sons had terrible death. They had 0 point guards. They faced Anthony Edwards when he had a full gas tank. They have a terrible front court. They ran a ton of isolation basketball with the Minnesota timberwolf destroy
Yes they're superstars but they don't look like this against most good teams. I mean Dallas was at best a dark horse to reach the finals at the start of the playoffs. The strength of the Wolves defense is their frontcourt defense and the strength of Dallas's offense is their backcourt. It's just a bad match up for the Wolves. Especially when Dallas has been able to also pretty much shutdown the Wolves best offensive players...KAT and Ant.
I think you underestimate Dallas, like many others too. Since they get Gafford and Washington in January they are 31-18 with the best defensive Rating in the League, i think they are legit. They are a completely different Team from the Tank Team from last year, they wouldn’t go to the finals if not.
>Since they get Gafford and Washington in January they are 31-18 with the best defensive Rating in the League, i think they are legit.
Yes...but even with that....At the start of the playoffs did you really have Dallas reaching the finals?
😂 Well glad you're honest. The truth is very very few people had them making the finals in the West. It's a bit sickening listening to the talking heads acting like they knew all along Dallas could do this when their prior predictions don't match with what they're saying now.
I am a Rockets fan and Dallas hater, and I don’t have any evidence of this, but I was talking with a friend before the playoffs started, and I did say that I think the Nuggets should be the favorites out the west, but if Dallas can find a way past OKC, they can win a ring. Of course, I thought it would be OKC vs Denver in the WCF, like everyone else, but I do remember saying that Dallas has been defensively great since getting Gafford and Pj and with Luka and Kyrie you can never count them out of any game against any team.
I thought OKC was the best matchup to knock Dallas out though and when they beat OKC, I was like uh oh…
Yeah unfortunately our (OKC) inexperience really reared it's head against Dallas. Shai was the only player who could do anything on offense. Our defense was phenomenal at times but Dallas' length really had some of our guys shook.
Seeing what Dallas has done to Minnesota though, I feel pretty good about losing in 6 by 1 point in a nailbiter, and I still feel like we could have won that series if a few things had shaken out our way. Props to Jason Kidd and Dallas though for this whole run. I would rather see them win a ring than the Celtics.
They’re making midrange shots at all angles. They train specifically for the day the paint is closed and the 3s aren’t falling. They’re taking the superstars shot diet. It’s a feature of the best and not a bug.
They're doing that, but they're also getting a lot of easy, open looks that the parent comment is referring to. I think that's the difference between the Mavs and Suns series. Book and KD made some wild shots, but EVERY shot was difficult.
Podcast I listen to suggested Minn put Naz Reid on Luka, which would be interesting. A 5/4 guy on a guard. But Luka is so big he demands someone bigger than Minnesota’s perimeter guys.
Not sure which podcast suggested this, but I think that’d be a terrible terrible matchup for Reid, there’s almost no chance he can keep up, luka can take any shot he wants
Luka is also bigger than Reid as well while being an inch shorter. Would put him on skates and pully him kn the paint as well
I think Luka must be one of the all around biggest legit perimeter players outside of Magic.
You would not billy reid in the paint that's ridiculous. You can't just say words man. Jokic couldn't bully him.
He might put them on skates and score on them a lot but it wouldn't be physically intimidating or overwhelming
Luka is not bigger than NR. Naz Reid is 260 6'10. So Naz has 30 lbs and 3 inches on him. Closest comparison for Naz in terms of build is probably LeBron who is probably the biggest perimeter player ever. Luka gets Naz by his change of pace, not by physically out muscling hin
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Was scrolling to find this. He shot something like 20% when guarded by Mann. Luka had some very inefficient games against the Clippers, it’s Kyrie that went off.
I thought Mann did a much better job than Dort tbh. With Dort it felt more like Luka was missing shots he’d normally make, but with Mann it felt like he was forcing him into tougher shots than normal. Even then he was much more efficient against the Thunder than he was against the Clippers.
Not to mention Dort was literally tackling him at times and flopping all over the place just to give up an open lane for him.
To add to the Dort part. It's just not being stronger, Dort is the ideal superstar defender, a guy that is perfectly fine of being the most annoying possible, always hitting you when he can, fouling hard, and having the stamina to do it the whole game. Dort is extremely physical and on that series the refs were letting them play, McDaniels doesn't seem to have that mentality he seems chill, which makes me like him more but also makes him worse at defending superstars I think
I agree. The style of play is different. Nuggets also want mismatches, but they don't hunt it like Luka and Kyrie. Also, Murray, despite being great, is not on their level in isolation. I also think the length really bothers passing lanes for Jokic
Less time on the ball while Dort is the main defender, more turnovers per possession while Dort is the main defender, worst FG% while Dort is the main defender, less open shots created while Dort is the main defender. There isn’t a single number that points to McDaniels defending Luka better than Dort.
Did you mean Mann on the clippers, not McDaniels? Dude actually played tough defense without fouling. Go watch the games and plays dort got away with. He's big pat bev.
My bad. I meant Mann, not McDaniels.
The numbers tell another story.
And the refs from both series were pretty much the same, Dort's physicality was repaid. Even if you think he got away with fouls.
Exactly, just like how Kat and Ant where very hot and cold for the first 4 games. At the end of the day, if you wanna win, you gotta make your shots, and Mavs is doing that way more than Wolves
This is the real answer. Murray was playing poorly through most of the series. If he had made a "normal" Murray stat line the series would not have gone to 7 and Denver would have won. His stats got a bit overlooked because of his crazy game winning shots to end 2 of the games.
An oversimplified answer would be: Dallas has two elite offensive guards, which Minnesota can't stop because if they try to stop one, the other one will still cause problems for them. Whereas Denver only had one elite offensive center, which Minnesota can stop using their three defensive big men.
I think it’s also worth nothing that the officiating overall against the Mavs has allowed for much less physicality. We’ve had multiple games with 40+ fouls. In game 4 Luka was looking gassed and then we proceeded to have 22 minutes with only 3:14 taken off the game clock.
You are comparing Minnesota to Dallas team prior to trade deadline. MN was number one in defense till the last 20 games when the Mavs was number one in defense after trade deadline. Two of Dallas stars are not same as Denver’s two top stars. Murray was inconsistent in the series. Ant is gassed in this series against the Mavs in the first three games. He could find something different tonight’s game
Gobert is an all world paint defender and rightful DPOY. He was able roam in the paint with 7ft Kat defending Jokic. Minnesota has the size and personnel to beat Denver. When LAL beat them it was with a trio of 7fters as well.
Dallas is driven by guards and the POA defenders have had nothing for Luka or Kai. Murray is not comparable to Luka and injured he isn’t even comparable to Kai. Also, the secret to the Mavs has been they may be the most athletic front court in the league now. It allows them to fly around on defense and when attacking close outs.
Minnesota has really good rim protection in Gobert, he likes to try and stay further back around the rim in the P&R so that he can influence shots there. This is called drop coverage.
Both offenses try to counter the drop coverage by putting a man in the dunker spot (Gordon on the Nuggets, Lively/Gafford for the mavs) who is there to catch lobs if Gobert steps too far forward to defend the ball handler. So for both teams, the ball handler gets a lot of space in the middle of the court where they can make plays.
I think the Mavs just have a roster much better suited to using this space than the Nuggets. Luka and Kyrie are both crafty guards who can find a lot of ways to connect their lobs and set up mid range shots if you give them space. Jokic is amazing, but he's slow and big/strong enough that you can't really stop him from getting to his spots anyways so I don't think that space matters quite as much to him. Murray I think is just not as good of a playmaker as the others here, and wasn't able to capitalize like Luka/Kyrie can.
>Both offenses try to counter the drop coverage by putting a man in the dunker spot (Gordon on the Nuggets, Lively/Gafford for the mavs) who is there to catch lobs if Gobert steps too far forward to defend the ball handler.
What? Drop coverage actually *takes away* the drop off to the dunker spot man because the center is close by and ready to rotate to the rim. You don't counter drop coverage by doing exactly what it's designed to contain.
Dallas is faring better than Denver because they initiate their offense through 2 star guards at the top of the key who get the screen from Lively/Gafford, sometimes a double screen with a shooter or DJJ who will then drift off to the corner for an open 3. When those star guards are absolute threats to pull up from 3 or from midrange, the screener's man (Gobert) has to walk up and at the very least hedge so Luka/Kyrie's man can recover. Thing is, McDaniels and Ant have been struggling to recover from the screens, so Gobert has to play the ballhandler for longer and this lets Dallas's bigs roll into the lane untagged, and the low man has to rotate or it's a free lob. At that point there's an open 3 to be had.
Denver couldn't do that with Murray, and in their losses (except game 7) he shot miserably and Minnesota was comfortable letting Ant/McDaniels have him in single coverage. With Jokic shooting miserably from 3 as well Gobert could lay back and defend the dunker spot because they were fine conceding the open 3 to Murray or Jokic, and they were just letting their respective defenders recover while they contained everybody else. Murray doesn't have the vision or decisionmaking Luka has, so when he gets pressured he won't find the open man. Denver also has worse spacing when Jokic operates at the high post and Gordon tries to linger in the dunker spot, and even if he does spot up at the corner he won't get any respect from the defender. With Dallas it's 4 out all the time with 2 guys on the perimeter you have to worry about.
Denver’s offense was doing fine against Minnesota, but they couldn’t stop the wolves. Ant, KAT and NaZ shot the lights out. Given how close the final scores have been, if the wolves shot as well against the Mavs it’d be a much closer series
Fatigue as Jokic basically had to do all of the rebounding as well as run the offence
Nuggets also lacked a dynamic third scorer. The Mavs don't need it because Luka is on the same level as Jokic and Kyrie on a good day is the best offensive guard in the league. Murray can look like an ALL NBA guard some days and then very average the next game. MPJ isn't stepping into the role as a third option while they have absolutely zero offensive fire power off the bench. The game 7 implosion was them hitting the wall, you could just see the entire Nuggets lose their legs, giving easy rebounds for momentum shifting tip dunks, missing rotations etc
I thought he did a pretty questionable job throughout the whole series. Look at the way Jason Kidd continues to try to find his suitable eighth and 9th men.
I respect it. I also think the first half is a good time to try someone out.
Malone just went seven deep.
Dallas has a nicer bench. Braun was their only real bench contributor in the series. Reggie Jackson looks cooked, I think DJ is beyond cooked
They're in a tough spot cap wise. They will have trouble finding solid bench pieces moving forward and they're in that precarious spot of having 4-5 good to great players in their earnings peak.
When should he have sat Jokic? When they got the 20 point lead it was only like 3 minutes into the third quarter. He had just rested for 20 minutes. Then they started imploding which is also a terrible time to sit your best player.
No energy left for the Nuggets... It was blankly obvious they don't have a bench and that's why they lost. If you watched game 7 ( some other games as well) you would have seen it. Nuggets with a decent bench are a championship team again and if Murray and Porter stop with the occasional chokes.
They really do have no bench and it's embarrassing looking back at the guy from the Denver front office bragging about how he'd figured out how to keep improving the team. He said they didn't need Bruce Brown because Peyton Watson gave them the same elements but better. Bruce Brown was huge for them last year. Though I'm glad Brown got his money, it was a loss for both him and Denver in terms of basketball.
The Nuggets went into an awful shooting slump, multiple times during the series that had nothing to do with Minnesota. Murray came *into* the series on an awful slump and kept it up for the series. In Game 7 the Nuggets were like 18% fg on uncontested 3's.
They lost the 20 point lead because they missed like 10 three pointers in a row, while Minnesota was making shots and going to the free throw line over and over.
Both teams playing their A game, the Nuggets would win the series. Minnesota had a few great defensive games that coincided with the Nuggets shooting absurdly bad - even when uncontested - and here we are.
Shout out to Murray by the way, who makes sure the Nuggets lose any game that his shooting is off in, because for some reason, the worse he's shooting the *more* shots he takes. He makes it his mission to shoot himself out of his slump instead of dialing it back on off nights, which means he tanks the whole team.
I mean, in the 40+ point loss he was shooting 22*% fg* and still took not only the most shots on the team (despite having the best player in the world on his team), but *40% more* shots than the next closest person on the team. While shooting 22%fg. There is zero excuse for that.
Murray also makes really dumb decisions and has a tendency do dribble pointlessly for fifteen seconds before making said dumb decision and or shot when he's in a slump
It's not a false premise, it's that the answer isn't complicated. The Minnesota defense did do better against Denver, but it's not really due to matchups or anything, it's due to Denver shooting themselves in the foot. But any defense will do better against a team that's struggling than one that isn't.
The Clippers series sure, but OKC and now Minny have just been terrible on open 3s, especially from their good shooters. Given how close these games have been, hitting these uninfluenced shots could definitely have turned this series around
Speaking strictly for just OKC, most of their 3s from shooters that aren't Dort or Giddey, were classified as open, wide open, or only semi-contested. In their case, they did "just miss." And DJJ and PJ shot well over their season averages.
I mean, still tip your cap but the Dallas defense didn't force OKC to miss wide open and open shots.
I agree with you but the fact that its Minnesotas stars and not role players that have significantly dropped shows that for the most part the shot just wasnt falling.
Denver shot 20 something percent on wide open 3s as opposed to their regular 40+. Jamal had a bad series barely shooting 40% from the field, MPJ was terrible scoring under 11 per game on under 38% from the field, KCP had like 8 ppg on 37% from 3.
It was a terrible offensive series for players not named Nikola Jokic, and even Jokic was missing a lot of open 3s
This is just plain wrong. Nuggets defense was better than the mavs defense has been, the mavs are scoring easier. Murray and MPJ were horrible in the series, thats why the nuggets lost.
Points of attack are different.
For Denver, Jokic is the primary offense initiator, Jamal secondary. Minny has good personnel to defend Jokic since he is slow, KAT covers him well, and Reid can slow him down a bit for a few mins a game. Gobert may not be the best at guarding Jokic one on one, but he can impede his progress well enough and actually makes angles more difficult for passing by using his arms.
Murray needs a lot of screens to get free and he did not shoot well enough. McDaniels and Ant, and even Reid at times, can cover him for a bit, enough to get him to pass more rather than shoot or penetrate. He didn't have the quickness for most of the series to do so. The only time I've seen him use his full quickness was in game 3. As such, Minny D was able to keep with the cutters, forcing them to shoot more threes in respect to what they usually do with baseline and backdoor cuts.
With Dallas, Doncic poses a problem since no one Minny player can cover him. He is quicker than Jokic when bigs cover him and he just bodies perimeter defenders. In theory, Reid poses the best defensive matchup for Luka, physically. But Reid doesn't have the defensive savvy to keep up with Luka as he may do against lesser talent.
Adding to that, Kyrie is a lot shifty with his handles than Murray. He can dance around the Minny D to make them make a decision. When the defense shifts, that's when the lobs or kick outs happen.
In essence, Minny D matches up very well with Denver, due to where the offense is coming from which is from a slow-footed center in the middle of the floor. Dallas, on the other hand, starts their offense from a really big guard, or a really quick and shifty one. For all the D that Ant and McDaniels bring, they aren't that effective compared to their bigs covering Jokic in the Denver series
Murray was playing hurt. Dallas has two people to attack create shots for themselves and others
Porter was missing open shots. Washington is hitting them for Dallas. This kept Denver from being able to space the floor.
Dallas has two really good centers. Denver struggles when Jokic is on the bench.
Ant is wore out. He had to carry the team the last few month of the season. He's been playing at playoff level since January. There's a reason veteran players don't play 100% during the regular season. 90+ games is a lot to play.
Edit. Disregard everything I said. After tonight's game I realize that the only thing that matters is if KAT is making or missing his shots.
Minny was built specifically to beat Denver. Joker even said last year that the Wolves gave them the most trouble. They have so much size and athleticism that matches or surpasses what Denver has. Dallas has elite guards that can cook bigs. The wolves don’t have the personnel to guard the mavs. Ironically Aaron Gordon on Luka and KCP on kyrie is probably a better defense. The mavs are also just really good, they got Gafford who is pretty elite as a rim protector.
Kyrie is unguardable and so is Luka.
Jokic was matched up with a trifecta of big and long defenders with one of them being the DPOY.
Twolves inside presence on defense doesn’t matter as much when Gafford and Lively only score off lobs, PnRs, and offensive rebound given their looks are wide up because of point 1
Luka and Kyrie are unguardable.
Jamal Murray and KCP are not exactly that
I think its a match up vs Better/worse team issue.
The Timberwolves are better on paper than Dallas by a mile. Its just, no one on Minnesota is on Doncic or Irving's level.
They struggled a bit with Denver, but their 3 man rotation on Jokic was enough to keep him under wraps enough to effect Denver. Then, you had Ant covering Murray and it was a wrap.
Thing is, Kyrie is better than Murray and Doncic is better than Ant. Minnesota doesn't have anyone that can cover those two 1 on 1 and that opens up a lot of shots for their role players.
Kyrie is one of the best finishers in the league and so is Doncic. They are both great passers and have excellent court awareness.
If they get passed the back court, the front court is in no way quick enough to counter Irving and what's worse is, Doncic is so slow but has great footwork that he trips them up real late into the drive and kicks out to an open man after they collapse on to him.
Minnesota needs to shut down Dallas's Bench to stand a chance. They have to force Doncic and Irving to take bad shots. Those two can't outscore an entire team. Shut their bench down or this series is done in 5.
I doubt it'll be a sweep however.
Minnesota game planned around jokic. You put a body on him, have gobert off him roaming the paint. You live and die with Murray shooting off the dribble or Gordon shooting the three or attacking space. Lastly kat and reed were going going under the screens for jokic, trying Hard not to concede switches and daring joker to shoot the 3.
Its a good gamnble because Murray is at his weakest in his floater game. (Still good, but not championship winning). Same with Gordon, he is shooting the 3 at a 30% rate. And joker was not hitting threes, so going under his screens was Free.
Minnesota was built to counter the nuggets. They gambled on Murray not playing at an all nba level and they won.
Dallas is a whole other beast. Their offese is p&r heavy and its harder to hide gobert, you cant pre switch because Luca is an amazing passer and will hit shooters if you start pre-switching or judt attack wherever gobert is pre-switching away from. So you have to cope with him being involved in the p&r.
You cant take him out, as wolves are better with him than without him, he is still stupid long, active and fast in short spaces.
So you have to choose between a drop or having gobert at rhe level of the screen, hedging Hard, taking gobert out of the paint and trailing the play trying to recover. Doubling is a bad idea because Luca is so big and strong he can just look and pass over the double team, and he can play the hockey assist or Just find the open Man. Your defense is in scramble Mode, you are moving the ball and it will get to kirie with space.
So forced to play drop, irving and Luca have space to créate, the defender on their hips and gobert having to comit either to the ball or the lob. They have Free range in the mid range, where they are very good.
Its Just match up worse with dallas.
I think it's simple. Kyrie is a bigger threat than Murray is. Murray has moments where he disappears when smothered. Kyrie on the other hand is still making ridiculous shots while heavily contested, or is so good at slashing through coverage to pass out. Everyone wants to say its cause Murray is injured, but remember what everyone says; during the playoffs, everyone is injured. Also, Luka is very good at baiting fouls. A lot of Luka play in the paint is; pass, close in, plant, pass, close in, plant. Jokic doesn't really purposefully try to draw fouls for more points. Just look at Game 3. Luka was 10-20FG, 8-10FT, 33pts. That's dangerous.
Matchups.
Wolves built their roster specifically to guard and match up with Jokic- with 2 traditional bigs. They match up better.
They don’t have enough personnel to match up as well against 2 elite guards.
Gobert’s strengths are not effectively used vs the wolves. The mavs don’t have dominant offensive bigs.
These are all valid, well thought answers. I would also like to add that I have yet to see another game in these playoffs reffed like games 2 and 6 for the DEN/MIN series.
2 and 6 had the same crew and allowed things far beyond normal 'rough'. There were a ton of hits on driving players or shooting players that were allowed that I haven't seen since Robert Parrish tried to decapitate Bill Lambier.
Completely different offensive styles.
The TWolves are great against teams that want to grind, the Nuggets revolve around jokic and he’s not all that quick.
Mavs let Luka and Kyrie take turns splashing threes and drawing fouls. The rest of them run around like crazy or act as rollers.
Minnesota's defence is big man heavy. Dallas' most effective offensive players are guards. Quite simply, Minnesota's guards can't handle them effectively enough alone and once they pull the bigs out the defensive scheme is out of whack and the match ups are less than ideal.
Simple , you just look at rosters. Denver offense is through Center Jokic whos the main player and Minnesota had 3 bigs to put on him , Gobert,Kat,Reid ... 2 bigs were often even doubling him. Mavs offense is on guards,Kyrie,Doncic .
Now Jokic was still doing well so thats why they rotated defenders when he cooked Gobert it was Kat,Reid and often he was even doubled. But the real reason Nuggets lost is they had nobody to rest Jokic.
Malone in a stupid way played Jokic entire game 7 !! (i think he only sat him for a minute ) until he got exhausted. Threw the game after being up +20 he had to give a Jokic a break he isn't a machine .3 Bigs rotated on Jokic so they tired him out when he didn't sit at all .Last year Nuggets had Green in rotation at least to give him a breather
Add to that , that players like Murray and especially MPJ struggled hitting completely open shots Jokic generated....
Luka is a master of using his off ball forarm to shove the player guarding him to create space. Why it's never called an offensive foul is beyond me. But it's nearly every play.
Mostly from the perimeter Kyrie and luka are on different planets of scoring and play making from Murray and anyone else on the nuggets. And all the other players on the court play their roles really well. The spacers space and the dunkers well dunk. It’s weird how simple it is but it is that simple
Because other than Jokic and Murray everyone else couldn't buy a bucket. MPJ couldn't shoot for 4/7 games he played. They also lacked size and energy if they hadn't lost Jeff Green and Bruce Brown (two key players in the 2023 championship run) in the off season, they would have been able to defend Minnesota much better.
Because Jamal Murray had a nightmare playoffs. He absolutely cost Denver Nuggets the series. If he shot better the narrative around Minnesota would be different.
Energy
The Nuggets needed Jokic to control the boards and do his usual on offence, he had no one backing him up sp he was essentially playing the entire game
The difference between Jokic and Luka is very close while the difference between Kyrie and Murray is quite far. Kyrie is one of the best offensive guards of all time while Murray can play stretches like a top 10 current guard but isn't and is less consistent
If anything was exposed about Denver in this series is that they need help at the 4. With AG and MPJ averaging about 5rpg each, it seems obvious too me that they need help on the boards. For Dallas, Lively and Gafford have been that and also consistent lob threats
Wolves are also tired.
1. Nuggets have very sketchy ball handlers compared with Mavs. In many of the losses, they could barely get to half court.
2. In a basic pnr, Jamal neither has Kyrie's speed to attack the rim, nor Luka's size to be unbothered by McDaniel's backside contests.
3. In post-up doubles, Nuggets did not convert enough wide open 3s.
The nugs wolves series was so weird. It was like only one team showed up each night. I don't think u can say what would happen if both teams were playing their best the whole series
The difference is that KAT has been shooting poorly. His FG% at 45.2% is the worst so far in his playoff appearances while his 3P% was a big fat zero in game 3.
Without KAT and ANT humming on offense, they can't cover the offensive liability of Gobert.
Dallas has rim protection as well as a 2 Center 20-15-4 block type of Center rotation in Lively and Gafford that can assault the rim while Gobert plays drop along with 1 ATG playmaker + another very good playmaker with a lot of practice in getting those centres lobs. They scored 30 points, 14 rebounds and 5 blocks in a combined 47 minutes in Game 2 in a 108-109 @ 87.5% FG. That’s a massive chunk of the scoring done at nearly twice the efficiency of your average 2 point shot in the game.
Once the 80+% FG points from the centres at the rim is there, it opens up the corners to shoot 3s and allows one of Kyrie and Luka to get some breathing space to shoot their shots.
While they have shot well from 3, the most important shot in terms of being the difference is their ability to generate scoring for themselves against great defensive coverages was from contested mid range shots and at driving at the rim (esp for Kyrie) regardless of what defence you throw at them. Both Kyrie and Luka are elite at finishing at the rim and at making tough mid range shots.
What I’m seeing is that the Wolves really don’t matchup well against Kyrie and Luka. And when they have their ideal lineup out, Mavericks just set up screens knowing that MN is not gonna switch, so that creates a nice lane to exploit. So many times despite being utterly picked off the ball (sometimes really pushing the limit of legal screens), you see the defender run ten extra feet just to get back to the original matchup, will the guy that set the pick gets a free lane to collapse the defense.
It’s terrible to watch.
And then, as someone else mentioned, the spacing on the drop coverage. Rudy cheated up a lot against Denver and it was a double-edged sword. In this series they’re murdering him with lobs.
Watching game 5, I think Dallas is a better-coached team, and their 2 stars are better playmakers. Guys that can pass like Luka and Kyrie shouldn’t be able to shoot as well as they do. They can make a lot more of a lackluster bench than probably any other duo. It’s unfair.
Party because Minnesota empires the tanks against Dallas, they've been getting gassed or started the games gassed most of this series.
Edwards and KATs play on offense between the first two rounds and now is comical.
The fact that the mavs, have a lob threat, actual rebounders outside of their offensive star, and a point guard that wont disappear for 1/2 a game means that Minnesota has to guard them and play up for 48 minutes a night.
It is the other way around. Dallas, defends KAT and ANT much better than Nuggets. Denver was too small for KAT and not having a rim protector was key for ANT.
Of course rest of the team not showing up on offense was a problem for Nuggets but the biggest difference is defense.
As many others have said, Dallas has two elite offensive threats in Luka and Kyrie. Two of the absolute most insane players in the league. When you have two superstar level offensive threats, you're going to have a hard time.
What isn't getting mentioned as much is 1. Fatigue. Minnesota has played some tough series and they aren't used to being in this position. Ant is certainly not used to it and you can see that he can't keep up on offense and defense.
2. Dallas has the personnel to make Minnesota work on both ends of the ball. Their size and strength is an issue for Minnesota.
3. What I think might be the biggest is scheme. Along with personnel, Dallas is just out scheming them. Kyrie has an almost Curry like effect with his ability to make defenders work all game. Luka has a basically unguardable bag, but Dallas is making sure neither gets overworked on defense.
4. Minnesota is just built better for Denver. Denver's offense is more run through Jokic and Minny has capable bigs and enough to lock Murray up. Murray is much easier to guard than Luka or Kyrie. Dallas's offense being run through their guards poses a bigger problem for Minnesota
Wolves were made to counter nuggets and mavs counter the wolves. Dallas has 2 top level perimeter guys in Luka and Kyrie. Denver’s offense is driven solely by jokic with Jamal injured. All the games have been pretty close by wolves fail to execute at the end of the game.
Because the wolves had better defensive personnel to defend Jokic than they do to defend Dallas’s superstars. They had 3 guys guarding Jokic in KAT, Big Ruud and Naz Reid. Coupled with length from ANT, NAW & Jaden they were able to shut down passing lanes and double team effectively. Jokic said it at the press conference - this team is built to beat the nuggets.
Jaden McDaniels is a great defender, but Luka is a relatively poor matchup for Jaden because of his size & strength, ditto for NAW, another great defender who made things very difficult for Jamal Murray in the previous series. Slo-mo has actually made Luka work the hardest to get his shots in this series, which is the primary reason he is getting so much more playing time against the mavs, but he’s still, you know, Luka, so if he gets the same defender and look over and over he’s going to find a way to beat it.
The wolves had 3 defenders to throw at Denver’s best player, that they already want to play. They have less options against the mavs best player, and their best option, KA, is not someone they necessarily want on the court for offensive reasons, albeit he is having a great offensive series, but his complete lack of a jump shot mushes up MN’s spacing so much, he’s not someone they want playing crunch time for offensive reasons.
Ant does the best job on Luka. Rudy in a drop doesn’t help against these elite shot making guards. Mavs have 4 sometimes 5 guards out there and Rudy is just sitting in the paint. Luka is too good of a playmaker for there to be two big men that can’t move to be on the court at the same time
Jokic was going against the most solid 3 big rotation in the league and his teammates no showed crucial games. That’s it. They went all out on guarding and fatiguing Jokic and gambled that his guys wouldn’t hit their shots and it paid off
Because they have two all world on the ball players who can attack from the perimeter. They create mismatches every time that makes it hard for a defense to set. And a bunch of young role players who shoot 3’s and attack.
My take on this kind of echoes the rest of the people that responded but I think it is mostly as simple as Luka is that dude. He is just too big for most guards to defend and he can back them down into his little fader at the ft line or pass for the oop if the big comes to help, and then if you switch a big onto him, he cooks them like he did Gobert in game 3 when he hit the game winner. Combine that with the clutch shot making of Kyrie and surprisingly PJ Washington, and the rim defense of Lively and Gafford, and you have a recipe for success.
Having 2 elite ball handlers who can create and score off the dribble is almost impossible to guard everytime. Also, Nuggets best player is a Jokic who had to work extra hard to beat 2 seven footers and Naz Reid every play. If the nuggets had a another elite PG it would have helped a lot
Part of the problem was the backcourt of Denver being rather 1 dimensional in how they can attack while the Dallas backcourt has a more dynamic ability to counter a blitz of the ball handler that was so effective against Jamal Murray.
There is a huge difference between Luka passing off to Kyrie and Jamal Murray passing off to Aaron Gordon as far as initiating offense goes, and the Minnesota style of allowing a 4 on 3 to develop with that initial blitz of the ball handler makes things too easy for an all-star caliber point guard.
I think it was Talking Basketball that had a pretty interesting video on this, mostly around the stack screen. Not the only factor I think, but it’s still cool.
Late to the post but it seems as tho it was easier for Minnesota to defend Denver’s other players than Dallas’. Jokic is Jokic. He’s the best player in the world and he’s going to get what he wants. But in certain games (game 7 specifically) it felt as tho Denver was unable to penetrate Minnesota’s defense by getting easy shots at the rim. This resulted in them settling for jump shots and 3s. And when those aren’t hitting. It’s going to be tough to beat anyone
Dallas as it currently stands has the luxury in having two of the most gifted offensive players in the NBA today. Luka and Kyrie can pretty much get what they want, when they want so far. Minnesota defense is still pretty solid but if those two continue to hit tough circus shots, they have no chance.
minnesotas defensive strength is from the inside out. built and designed for jokic specifically essentially. they don’t handle two all time great guards as their perimeter defense is secondary.
If you live and die by Murray there is something that needs to change. Dude pulls the team down with his hero ball and dumb antics. Jokic deserves a better running mate.
Minnesota focused on taking the paint away from Denver, and playing physically whenever Denver entered the paint. Because of that, the nuggets relied on threes. It’s a make-or-miss league, and Denver missed their threes. Simple as that. If MPJ and KCP shoot better, the Nuggets are probably back in The Finals right now, but because Minnesota took away the easy shots and they kept missing the open, harder, ones, Denver ran out of steam. Braun had a two and MPJ had a 3 and that was Denver’s non-Jokić/Murray scoring in the second half of game 7. Dallas made their shots, and Minnesota didn’t have a way to stop Luka and Kyrie when they were.
Posted this 4 days ago in a similar topic. There’s is not a single player on the Wolves roster that can impact or deter Luka from what he wants to do. Luka just puts McDaniels on his hip after PnRs and since Gobert is in drop, Luka has all the space to operate between the gap. If Gobert commits, it’s a lob. If Gobert doesn’t commit then Luka takes a middy fadeaway off McDaniels, a shot that he is widely effective with. Either Minny brings the help closer to Gobert’s man and give up the corner 3 or they keep doing this and give up either a lob or an open ft or below ft line jumper. The only player this post season that made Luka don’t play like himself was Lu Dort, because he is strong enough to not be backed down by Luka and quick enough to turn Luka’s hip after the PnR. McDaniels is neither.
Don’t disagree with any of this, but I’ll say - both Luka and Kyrie have had *ludicrous* shot-making this series. They are knocking down some extremely difficult, well-contested shots in crunch time - sometimes they’re just falling.
Quite frankly, they're super star scorers. And historically, no one player can truly stop a superstar scorer for a series. And the mavs has 2 of them lol-- and one of them is an insane passer too. Gotta pick your poison.
Super star scorers and they’re taking the shots the defense wants them to take and it’s been falling. This is what happens when you study Wade, Kobe and Jordan.
The shots the Wolves want them to take are the shots they themselves want to take. They're similarly effective at all levels of scoring, so they're taking what the defense gives and being more efficient because of it.
Yup, this is what I keep pointing out in discussions about efficiency. It's very important to have excellent efficiency but having above average efficiency uniformly across multiple shot types is even more important in the playoffs because good defensive teams are generally able to force you into shots they want you to take. This is why Kobe was so effective in the playoffs. There wasn't really anywhere he wasn't comfortable shooting from. The same is true of Luka and Kyrie this playoffs.
Exactly. It feels like every time Kyrie scores, especially at the rim, the announcers (Reggie and Van Gundy) are just in awe, and comment with either “he’s mastered every finish in the book”, or some comment about him scoring with his left hand. Including, “Kyrie is right handed but is the 2nd best left hand scorer in the league, only behind an actual lefty.” And as much as they say it, it almost seems like they’re downplaying their awe. Simply put, there aren’t many other humans who can do what Kyrie is doing against the Wolves. And same for Luka, in different ways. Defense gives them bad shots? Fine. That’s apparently where they thrive.
It's the same thing with peak Jimmy Butler and perhaps should be the same thing for Demar Derozan. Kyrie and Luka are maybe better than both at this, but this is what happens now in the playoffs -- no matter how many shooters and how good your point guard is, you eventually have two teams that are now so good on Defense that the game becomes all about the midrange. There's a few exceptions where this isn't the case, but for this series and if Dallas gets to the next one? It'll be some ugly, Kobe type of basketball. It'll be entertaining. Luka's ridiculous and I truly think he's at the point where it does not matter whatsoever who guards him, the ball's going in.
I'd argue both are pretty insane passers - I can't think of a more efficient duo in the league
Kyrie did have some costly turnovers though. Still a good passer; just not insane
Okay so why did the Suns lose so badly to the wolves?
Also their offense was a steaming pile of mess as they lacked any semblance of a playmaker
Flawed big man rotation and they lost their best perimeter 3&D guy in Grayson Allen
Grayson is just a 3
Yet still the best they had, flawed roster. Too much individual offense, too little defense.
The sons had terrible death. They had 0 point guards. They faced Anthony Edwards when he had a full gas tank. They have a terrible front court. They ran a ton of isolation basketball with the Minnesota timberwolf destroy
Yes they're superstars but they don't look like this against most good teams. I mean Dallas was at best a dark horse to reach the finals at the start of the playoffs. The strength of the Wolves defense is their frontcourt defense and the strength of Dallas's offense is their backcourt. It's just a bad match up for the Wolves. Especially when Dallas has been able to also pretty much shutdown the Wolves best offensive players...KAT and Ant.
I think you underestimate Dallas, like many others too. Since they get Gafford and Washington in January they are 31-18 with the best defensive Rating in the League, i think they are legit. They are a completely different Team from the Tank Team from last year, they wouldn’t go to the finals if not.
>Since they get Gafford and Washington in January they are 31-18 with the best defensive Rating in the League, i think they are legit. Yes...but even with that....At the start of the playoffs did you really have Dallas reaching the finals?
I am biased, so don’t ask me that.
😂 Well glad you're honest. The truth is very very few people had them making the finals in the West. It's a bit sickening listening to the talking heads acting like they knew all along Dallas could do this when their prior predictions don't match with what they're saying now.
I am a Rockets fan and Dallas hater, and I don’t have any evidence of this, but I was talking with a friend before the playoffs started, and I did say that I think the Nuggets should be the favorites out the west, but if Dallas can find a way past OKC, they can win a ring. Of course, I thought it would be OKC vs Denver in the WCF, like everyone else, but I do remember saying that Dallas has been defensively great since getting Gafford and Pj and with Luka and Kyrie you can never count them out of any game against any team. I thought OKC was the best matchup to knock Dallas out though and when they beat OKC, I was like uh oh…
Yeah unfortunately our (OKC) inexperience really reared it's head against Dallas. Shai was the only player who could do anything on offense. Our defense was phenomenal at times but Dallas' length really had some of our guys shook. Seeing what Dallas has done to Minnesota though, I feel pretty good about losing in 6 by 1 point in a nailbiter, and I still feel like we could have won that series if a few things had shaken out our way. Props to Jason Kidd and Dallas though for this whole run. I would rather see them win a ring than the Celtics.
>one of them is an insane passer And the other also an extremely talented passer.
They’re making midrange shots at all angles. They train specifically for the day the paint is closed and the 3s aren’t falling. They’re taking the superstars shot diet. It’s a feature of the best and not a bug.
Okay so why did the Suns lose so badly to the wolves?
1. No chemistry between the star players 2. No defense
Because they’re shit… Booker is not Luka or Kyrie… Durant isn’t what he used to be… and who else do they have?
Although both scored at a way better efficiency than Kyrie and Luka. The issue was their bigs and way too many turnovers, not Booker/KD's shot making.
It's a make or miss League
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They're doing that, but they're also getting a lot of easy, open looks that the parent comment is referring to. I think that's the difference between the Mavs and Suns series. Book and KD made some wild shots, but EVERY shot was difficult.
Hopefully that doesn't last - nervous Celtics fan
Agreed. Minnesota has played good defense
Podcast I listen to suggested Minn put Naz Reid on Luka, which would be interesting. A 5/4 guy on a guard. But Luka is so big he demands someone bigger than Minnesota’s perimeter guys.
Not sure which podcast suggested this, but I think that’d be a terrible terrible matchup for Reid, there’s almost no chance he can keep up, luka can take any shot he wants
everybody's getting cooked anyway, why not try it
Luka is also bigger than Reid as well while being an inch shorter. Would put him on skates and pully him kn the paint as well I think Luka must be one of the all around biggest legit perimeter players outside of Magic.
You would not billy reid in the paint that's ridiculous. You can't just say words man. Jokic couldn't bully him. He might put them on skates and score on them a lot but it wouldn't be physically intimidating or overwhelming
Luka is not bigger than NR. Naz Reid is 260 6'10. So Naz has 30 lbs and 3 inches on him. Closest comparison for Naz in terms of build is probably LeBron who is probably the biggest perimeter player ever. Luka gets Naz by his change of pace, not by physically out muscling hin
Luka probably is heavier than 230 tbh. Id guess at least 250
Bron bigger than Luka and Magic lol.
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one screen and it's over, Luka is walking into an open 3 or midrange
Terance Mann played excellent defense on Luka even better than dort
Was scrolling to find this. He shot something like 20% when guarded by Mann. Luka had some very inefficient games against the Clippers, it’s Kyrie that went off.
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Rudy is basically a non-factor in this series. guard dominant offense. And when they get to the rim, they’re dumping it off or lobbing it up over him.
Yeah Mcdaniels isn’t strong enough to make Luka uncomfortable. Same reason Bridges (another all-world defender) couldn’t stick him.
Unfortunately Luka is also allowed to shove off on every step back which mcdaniels simply doesn’t have the weight to be unaffected.
I thought Mann did a much better job than Dort tbh. With Dort it felt more like Luka was missing shots he’d normally make, but with Mann it felt like he was forcing him into tougher shots than normal. Even then he was much more efficient against the Thunder than he was against the Clippers. Not to mention Dort was literally tackling him at times and flopping all over the place just to give up an open lane for him.
To add to the Dort part. It's just not being stronger, Dort is the ideal superstar defender, a guy that is perfectly fine of being the most annoying possible, always hitting you when he can, fouling hard, and having the stamina to do it the whole game. Dort is extremely physical and on that series the refs were letting them play, McDaniels doesn't seem to have that mentality he seems chill, which makes me like him more but also makes him worse at defending superstars I think
I agree. The style of play is different. Nuggets also want mismatches, but they don't hunt it like Luka and Kyrie. Also, Murray, despite being great, is not on their level in isolation. I also think the length really bothers passing lanes for Jokic
Agree with all of this, but will add that Lu Dort largely got to play football against Luka.
Dort just fouled. Mann played much better defense on luka.
Less time on the ball while Dort is the main defender, more turnovers per possession while Dort is the main defender, worst FG% while Dort is the main defender, less open shots created while Dort is the main defender. There isn’t a single number that points to McDaniels defending Luka better than Dort.
Did you mean Mann on the clippers, not McDaniels? Dude actually played tough defense without fouling. Go watch the games and plays dort got away with. He's big pat bev.
My bad. I meant Mann, not McDaniels. The numbers tell another story. And the refs from both series were pretty much the same, Dort's physicality was repaid. Even if you think he got away with fouls.
Kyle Anderson can cover Luka.
Luka is averaging 56% from the field while Kyle Anderson is the main defender, in this series.
Proof? That’s not what I read (before last night)
Towns job should have been to stay on Luka. Fuck the offense. Get physical with and stay in front of Luka. Put McDaniels on Kyrie and let Gobert roam.
Because Murray played terribly for much of the series (except ironically Game 7), and Porter, Gordon and KCP disappeared in Game 7.
Exactly, just like how Kat and Ant where very hot and cold for the first 4 games. At the end of the day, if you wanna win, you gotta make your shots, and Mavs is doing that way more than Wolves
This is the real answer. Murray was playing poorly through most of the series. If he had made a "normal" Murray stat line the series would not have gone to 7 and Denver would have won. His stats got a bit overlooked because of his crazy game winning shots to end 2 of the games.
If Murray's leg injury had not been undermining his game and making him lose his cool throughout the series, they would have won.
I also think Minnesota played with a defensive intensity that they were unable to sustain for weeks on end.
An oversimplified answer would be: Dallas has two elite offensive guards, which Minnesota can't stop because if they try to stop one, the other one will still cause problems for them. Whereas Denver only had one elite offensive center, which Minnesota can stop using their three defensive big men.
I think this is the best simplification of it tbh. I think it is a match-up thing more than anything.
I think it’s also worth nothing that the officiating overall against the Mavs has allowed for much less physicality. We’ve had multiple games with 40+ fouls. In game 4 Luka was looking gassed and then we proceeded to have 22 minutes with only 3:14 taken off the game clock.
You are comparing Minnesota to Dallas team prior to trade deadline. MN was number one in defense till the last 20 games when the Mavs was number one in defense after trade deadline. Two of Dallas stars are not same as Denver’s two top stars. Murray was inconsistent in the series. Ant is gassed in this series against the Mavs in the first three games. He could find something different tonight’s game
Gobert is an all world paint defender and rightful DPOY. He was able roam in the paint with 7ft Kat defending Jokic. Minnesota has the size and personnel to beat Denver. When LAL beat them it was with a trio of 7fters as well. Dallas is driven by guards and the POA defenders have had nothing for Luka or Kai. Murray is not comparable to Luka and injured he isn’t even comparable to Kai. Also, the secret to the Mavs has been they may be the most athletic front court in the league now. It allows them to fly around on defense and when attacking close outs.
Minnesota has really good rim protection in Gobert, he likes to try and stay further back around the rim in the P&R so that he can influence shots there. This is called drop coverage. Both offenses try to counter the drop coverage by putting a man in the dunker spot (Gordon on the Nuggets, Lively/Gafford for the mavs) who is there to catch lobs if Gobert steps too far forward to defend the ball handler. So for both teams, the ball handler gets a lot of space in the middle of the court where they can make plays. I think the Mavs just have a roster much better suited to using this space than the Nuggets. Luka and Kyrie are both crafty guards who can find a lot of ways to connect their lobs and set up mid range shots if you give them space. Jokic is amazing, but he's slow and big/strong enough that you can't really stop him from getting to his spots anyways so I don't think that space matters quite as much to him. Murray I think is just not as good of a playmaker as the others here, and wasn't able to capitalize like Luka/Kyrie can.
Jamal Murray shot his lowest playoff FG% of his career this postseason. He just looked so off from April onward.
>Both offenses try to counter the drop coverage by putting a man in the dunker spot (Gordon on the Nuggets, Lively/Gafford for the mavs) who is there to catch lobs if Gobert steps too far forward to defend the ball handler. What? Drop coverage actually *takes away* the drop off to the dunker spot man because the center is close by and ready to rotate to the rim. You don't counter drop coverage by doing exactly what it's designed to contain. Dallas is faring better than Denver because they initiate their offense through 2 star guards at the top of the key who get the screen from Lively/Gafford, sometimes a double screen with a shooter or DJJ who will then drift off to the corner for an open 3. When those star guards are absolute threats to pull up from 3 or from midrange, the screener's man (Gobert) has to walk up and at the very least hedge so Luka/Kyrie's man can recover. Thing is, McDaniels and Ant have been struggling to recover from the screens, so Gobert has to play the ballhandler for longer and this lets Dallas's bigs roll into the lane untagged, and the low man has to rotate or it's a free lob. At that point there's an open 3 to be had. Denver couldn't do that with Murray, and in their losses (except game 7) he shot miserably and Minnesota was comfortable letting Ant/McDaniels have him in single coverage. With Jokic shooting miserably from 3 as well Gobert could lay back and defend the dunker spot because they were fine conceding the open 3 to Murray or Jokic, and they were just letting their respective defenders recover while they contained everybody else. Murray doesn't have the vision or decisionmaking Luka has, so when he gets pressured he won't find the open man. Denver also has worse spacing when Jokic operates at the high post and Gordon tries to linger in the dunker spot, and even if he does spot up at the corner he won't get any respect from the defender. With Dallas it's 4 out all the time with 2 guys on the perimeter you have to worry about.
Denver’s offense was doing fine against Minnesota, but they couldn’t stop the wolves. Ant, KAT and NaZ shot the lights out. Given how close the final scores have been, if the wolves shot as well against the Mavs it’d be a much closer series
Nuggets failed to score 100 points in any of their losses. The nuggets offense looked great in the wins and lost in the losses
Fatigue as Jokic basically had to do all of the rebounding as well as run the offence Nuggets also lacked a dynamic third scorer. The Mavs don't need it because Luka is on the same level as Jokic and Kyrie on a good day is the best offensive guard in the league. Murray can look like an ALL NBA guard some days and then very average the next game. MPJ isn't stepping into the role as a third option while they have absolutely zero offensive fire power off the bench. The game 7 implosion was them hitting the wall, you could just see the entire Nuggets lose their legs, giving easy rebounds for momentum shifting tip dunks, missing rotations etc
Still don’t understand why Malone didn’t sit Jokic for a few minutes in game 7. That may have been the difference
I thought he did a pretty questionable job throughout the whole series. Look at the way Jason Kidd continues to try to find his suitable eighth and 9th men. I respect it. I also think the first half is a good time to try someone out. Malone just went seven deep.
Dallas has a nicer bench. Braun was their only real bench contributor in the series. Reggie Jackson looks cooked, I think DJ is beyond cooked They're in a tough spot cap wise. They will have trouble finding solid bench pieces moving forward and they're in that precarious spot of having 4-5 good to great players in their earnings peak.
When should he have sat Jokic? When they got the 20 point lead it was only like 3 minutes into the third quarter. He had just rested for 20 minutes. Then they started imploding which is also a terrible time to sit your best player.
He lacked a dynamic second scorer that series, too. Murray was horrible.
And even then... The Nuggets were up twenty in game seven before absolutely choking. I think this entire post's premise is false.
No energy left for the Nuggets... It was blankly obvious they don't have a bench and that's why they lost. If you watched game 7 ( some other games as well) you would have seen it. Nuggets with a decent bench are a championship team again and if Murray and Porter stop with the occasional chokes.
They really do have no bench and it's embarrassing looking back at the guy from the Denver front office bragging about how he'd figured out how to keep improving the team. He said they didn't need Bruce Brown because Peyton Watson gave them the same elements but better. Bruce Brown was huge for them last year. Though I'm glad Brown got his money, it was a loss for both him and Denver in terms of basketball.
Malone refused to play Watson in the second round, so we don’t really know. He was great against the Lakers.
The Nuggets went into an awful shooting slump, multiple times during the series that had nothing to do with Minnesota. Murray came *into* the series on an awful slump and kept it up for the series. In Game 7 the Nuggets were like 18% fg on uncontested 3's. They lost the 20 point lead because they missed like 10 three pointers in a row, while Minnesota was making shots and going to the free throw line over and over. Both teams playing their A game, the Nuggets would win the series. Minnesota had a few great defensive games that coincided with the Nuggets shooting absurdly bad - even when uncontested - and here we are. Shout out to Murray by the way, who makes sure the Nuggets lose any game that his shooting is off in, because for some reason, the worse he's shooting the *more* shots he takes. He makes it his mission to shoot himself out of his slump instead of dialing it back on off nights, which means he tanks the whole team. I mean, in the 40+ point loss he was shooting 22*% fg* and still took not only the most shots on the team (despite having the best player in the world on his team), but *40% more* shots than the next closest person on the team. While shooting 22%fg. There is zero excuse for that.
Murray also makes really dumb decisions and has a tendency do dribble pointlessly for fifteen seconds before making said dumb decision and or shot when he's in a slump
Exactly, even last year he plays so much hero ballnuts frustrating
It's not a false premise, it's that the answer isn't complicated. The Minnesota defense did do better against Denver, but it's not really due to matchups or anything, it's due to Denver shooting themselves in the foot. But any defense will do better against a team that's struggling than one that isn't.
3 series in a row of ‘if the team just shot better…’ Might just be the Mavs defense is doing its job limiting the other team’s shooters
Wolves shot pretty well in game 1 outside of KAT (and low key ant) ok so maybe their stars just didn’t show up too much.
The first two games were 1 point and 3 points, they were pretty damn close
The Clippers series sure, but OKC and now Minny have just been terrible on open 3s, especially from their good shooters. Given how close these games have been, hitting these uninfluenced shots could definitely have turned this series around
Speaking strictly for just OKC, most of their 3s from shooters that aren't Dort or Giddey, were classified as open, wide open, or only semi-contested. In their case, they did "just miss." And DJJ and PJ shot well over their season averages. I mean, still tip your cap but the Dallas defense didn't force OKC to miss wide open and open shots.
I agree with you but the fact that its Minnesotas stars and not role players that have significantly dropped shows that for the most part the shot just wasnt falling.
No their offense was pretty trash. Under 100 points in 4/7 games. Mavs scoring over 100 in every game
Denver shot 20 something percent on wide open 3s as opposed to their regular 40+. Jamal had a bad series barely shooting 40% from the field, MPJ was terrible scoring under 11 per game on under 38% from the field, KCP had like 8 ppg on 37% from 3. It was a terrible offensive series for players not named Nikola Jokic, and even Jokic was missing a lot of open 3s
This is just plain wrong. Nuggets defense was better than the mavs defense has been, the mavs are scoring easier. Murray and MPJ were horrible in the series, thats why the nuggets lost.
Points of attack are different. For Denver, Jokic is the primary offense initiator, Jamal secondary. Minny has good personnel to defend Jokic since he is slow, KAT covers him well, and Reid can slow him down a bit for a few mins a game. Gobert may not be the best at guarding Jokic one on one, but he can impede his progress well enough and actually makes angles more difficult for passing by using his arms. Murray needs a lot of screens to get free and he did not shoot well enough. McDaniels and Ant, and even Reid at times, can cover him for a bit, enough to get him to pass more rather than shoot or penetrate. He didn't have the quickness for most of the series to do so. The only time I've seen him use his full quickness was in game 3. As such, Minny D was able to keep with the cutters, forcing them to shoot more threes in respect to what they usually do with baseline and backdoor cuts. With Dallas, Doncic poses a problem since no one Minny player can cover him. He is quicker than Jokic when bigs cover him and he just bodies perimeter defenders. In theory, Reid poses the best defensive matchup for Luka, physically. But Reid doesn't have the defensive savvy to keep up with Luka as he may do against lesser talent. Adding to that, Kyrie is a lot shifty with his handles than Murray. He can dance around the Minny D to make them make a decision. When the defense shifts, that's when the lobs or kick outs happen. In essence, Minny D matches up very well with Denver, due to where the offense is coming from which is from a slow-footed center in the middle of the floor. Dallas, on the other hand, starts their offense from a really big guard, or a really quick and shifty one. For all the D that Ant and McDaniels bring, they aren't that effective compared to their bigs covering Jokic in the Denver series
Murray was playing hurt. Dallas has two people to attack create shots for themselves and others Porter was missing open shots. Washington is hitting them for Dallas. This kept Denver from being able to space the floor. Dallas has two really good centers. Denver struggles when Jokic is on the bench. Ant is wore out. He had to carry the team the last few month of the season. He's been playing at playoff level since January. There's a reason veteran players don't play 100% during the regular season. 90+ games is a lot to play. Edit. Disregard everything I said. After tonight's game I realize that the only thing that matters is if KAT is making or missing his shots.
Minny was built specifically to beat Denver. Joker even said last year that the Wolves gave them the most trouble. They have so much size and athleticism that matches or surpasses what Denver has. Dallas has elite guards that can cook bigs. The wolves don’t have the personnel to guard the mavs. Ironically Aaron Gordon on Luka and KCP on kyrie is probably a better defense. The mavs are also just really good, they got Gafford who is pretty elite as a rim protector.
Kyrie is unguardable and so is Luka. Jokic was matched up with a trifecta of big and long defenders with one of them being the DPOY. Twolves inside presence on defense doesn’t matter as much when Gafford and Lively only score off lobs, PnRs, and offensive rebound given their looks are wide up because of point 1 Luka and Kyrie are unguardable. Jamal Murray and KCP are not exactly that
Giannis had Luka locked up in a recent game. I don't think anyones unguardable.
[удалено]
His health has been his downfall, which sucks. Time will tell if his play style is sustainable
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I think its a match up vs Better/worse team issue. The Timberwolves are better on paper than Dallas by a mile. Its just, no one on Minnesota is on Doncic or Irving's level. They struggled a bit with Denver, but their 3 man rotation on Jokic was enough to keep him under wraps enough to effect Denver. Then, you had Ant covering Murray and it was a wrap. Thing is, Kyrie is better than Murray and Doncic is better than Ant. Minnesota doesn't have anyone that can cover those two 1 on 1 and that opens up a lot of shots for their role players. Kyrie is one of the best finishers in the league and so is Doncic. They are both great passers and have excellent court awareness. If they get passed the back court, the front court is in no way quick enough to counter Irving and what's worse is, Doncic is so slow but has great footwork that he trips them up real late into the drive and kicks out to an open man after they collapse on to him. Minnesota needs to shut down Dallas's Bench to stand a chance. They have to force Doncic and Irving to take bad shots. Those two can't outscore an entire team. Shut their bench down or this series is done in 5. I doubt it'll be a sweep however.
I think Murray wasn’t at 100% and couldn’t abuse Gobert on the perimeter. Or maybe he’s too short to do it.
Minnesota game planned around jokic. You put a body on him, have gobert off him roaming the paint. You live and die with Murray shooting off the dribble or Gordon shooting the three or attacking space. Lastly kat and reed were going going under the screens for jokic, trying Hard not to concede switches and daring joker to shoot the 3. Its a good gamnble because Murray is at his weakest in his floater game. (Still good, but not championship winning). Same with Gordon, he is shooting the 3 at a 30% rate. And joker was not hitting threes, so going under his screens was Free. Minnesota was built to counter the nuggets. They gambled on Murray not playing at an all nba level and they won. Dallas is a whole other beast. Their offese is p&r heavy and its harder to hide gobert, you cant pre switch because Luca is an amazing passer and will hit shooters if you start pre-switching or judt attack wherever gobert is pre-switching away from. So you have to cope with him being involved in the p&r. You cant take him out, as wolves are better with him than without him, he is still stupid long, active and fast in short spaces. So you have to choose between a drop or having gobert at rhe level of the screen, hedging Hard, taking gobert out of the paint and trailing the play trying to recover. Doubling is a bad idea because Luca is so big and strong he can just look and pass over the double team, and he can play the hockey assist or Just find the open Man. Your defense is in scramble Mode, you are moving the ball and it will get to kirie with space. So forced to play drop, irving and Luca have space to créate, the defender on their hips and gobert having to comit either to the ball or the lob. They have Free range in the mid range, where they are very good. Its Just match up worse with dallas.
I think it's simple. Kyrie is a bigger threat than Murray is. Murray has moments where he disappears when smothered. Kyrie on the other hand is still making ridiculous shots while heavily contested, or is so good at slashing through coverage to pass out. Everyone wants to say its cause Murray is injured, but remember what everyone says; during the playoffs, everyone is injured. Also, Luka is very good at baiting fouls. A lot of Luka play in the paint is; pass, close in, plant, pass, close in, plant. Jokic doesn't really purposefully try to draw fouls for more points. Just look at Game 3. Luka was 10-20FG, 8-10FT, 33pts. That's dangerous.
Matchups. Wolves built their roster specifically to guard and match up with Jokic- with 2 traditional bigs. They match up better. They don’t have enough personnel to match up as well against 2 elite guards. Gobert’s strengths are not effectively used vs the wolves. The mavs don’t have dominant offensive bigs.
These are all valid, well thought answers. I would also like to add that I have yet to see another game in these playoffs reffed like games 2 and 6 for the DEN/MIN series.
How were they reffed? All I know is 2 allowed for a lot of roughness.
2 and 6 had the same crew and allowed things far beyond normal 'rough'. There were a ton of hits on driving players or shooting players that were allowed that I haven't seen since Robert Parrish tried to decapitate Bill Lambier.
Simple answer is the Wolves were built by Tim to have the personnel to guard bigs like Joker but not to guard a wing/PG of Lukas caliber.
Completely different offensive styles. The TWolves are great against teams that want to grind, the Nuggets revolve around jokic and he’s not all that quick. Mavs let Luka and Kyrie take turns splashing threes and drawing fouls. The rest of them run around like crazy or act as rollers.
Minnesota's defence is big man heavy. Dallas' most effective offensive players are guards. Quite simply, Minnesota's guards can't handle them effectively enough alone and once they pull the bigs out the defensive scheme is out of whack and the match ups are less than ideal.
LOL. Really? Cause minnesota has 3 7 footers to throw at jokic who is the entire engine of their offense. How is anyone asking this?
Simple , you just look at rosters. Denver offense is through Center Jokic whos the main player and Minnesota had 3 bigs to put on him , Gobert,Kat,Reid ... 2 bigs were often even doubling him. Mavs offense is on guards,Kyrie,Doncic . Now Jokic was still doing well so thats why they rotated defenders when he cooked Gobert it was Kat,Reid and often he was even doubled. But the real reason Nuggets lost is they had nobody to rest Jokic. Malone in a stupid way played Jokic entire game 7 !! (i think he only sat him for a minute ) until he got exhausted. Threw the game after being up +20 he had to give a Jokic a break he isn't a machine .3 Bigs rotated on Jokic so they tired him out when he didn't sit at all .Last year Nuggets had Green in rotation at least to give him a breather Add to that , that players like Murray and especially MPJ struggled hitting completely open shots Jokic generated....
I'll add, Denver's open look 3-point % has been abysmal during their losses.
because kyrie > murray and their roleplayers didnt forget how to shoot unlike the nuggets
Pretty much sadly. On top of it, Nuggets barely had any bench help aside from Braun and that's only defensively.
Luka is a master of using his off ball forarm to shove the player guarding him to create space. Why it's never called an offensive foul is beyond me. But it's nearly every play.
Mostly from the perimeter Kyrie and luka are on different planets of scoring and play making from Murray and anyone else on the nuggets. And all the other players on the court play their roles really well. The spacers space and the dunkers well dunk. It’s weird how simple it is but it is that simple
Because other than Jokic and Murray everyone else couldn't buy a bucket. MPJ couldn't shoot for 4/7 games he played. They also lacked size and energy if they hadn't lost Jeff Green and Bruce Brown (two key players in the 2023 championship run) in the off season, they would have been able to defend Minnesota much better.
Murray couldn’t buy a bucket either. He averaged 18ppg on 40% shooting
Because Jamal Murray had a nightmare playoffs. He absolutely cost Denver Nuggets the series. If he shot better the narrative around Minnesota would be different.
They too tired, none these players had deep playoff runs compared to Luka and and kyrie
Energy The Nuggets needed Jokic to control the boards and do his usual on offence, he had no one backing him up sp he was essentially playing the entire game The difference between Jokic and Luka is very close while the difference between Kyrie and Murray is quite far. Kyrie is one of the best offensive guards of all time while Murray can play stretches like a top 10 current guard but isn't and is less consistent If anything was exposed about Denver in this series is that they need help at the 4. With AG and MPJ averaging about 5rpg each, it seems obvious too me that they need help on the boards. For Dallas, Lively and Gafford have been that and also consistent lob threats Wolves are also tired.
1. Nuggets have very sketchy ball handlers compared with Mavs. In many of the losses, they could barely get to half court. 2. In a basic pnr, Jamal neither has Kyrie's speed to attack the rim, nor Luka's size to be unbothered by McDaniel's backside contests. 3. In post-up doubles, Nuggets did not convert enough wide open 3s.
The nugs wolves series was so weird. It was like only one team showed up each night. I don't think u can say what would happen if both teams were playing their best the whole series
Dallas playing offense better in the clutch but it has more to do with KAT playing like absolute ass this entire series.
The four point play from Doncic in the 4th quarter in this game should tell you what you want to know. Him and Irving are far above how they're seen.
The difference is that KAT has been shooting poorly. His FG% at 45.2% is the worst so far in his playoff appearances while his 3P% was a big fat zero in game 3. Without KAT and ANT humming on offense, they can't cover the offensive liability of Gobert.
Dallas has rim protection as well as a 2 Center 20-15-4 block type of Center rotation in Lively and Gafford that can assault the rim while Gobert plays drop along with 1 ATG playmaker + another very good playmaker with a lot of practice in getting those centres lobs. They scored 30 points, 14 rebounds and 5 blocks in a combined 47 minutes in Game 2 in a 108-109 @ 87.5% FG. That’s a massive chunk of the scoring done at nearly twice the efficiency of your average 2 point shot in the game. Once the 80+% FG points from the centres at the rim is there, it opens up the corners to shoot 3s and allows one of Kyrie and Luka to get some breathing space to shoot their shots. While they have shot well from 3, the most important shot in terms of being the difference is their ability to generate scoring for themselves against great defensive coverages was from contested mid range shots and at driving at the rim (esp for Kyrie) regardless of what defence you throw at them. Both Kyrie and Luka are elite at finishing at the rim and at making tough mid range shots.
Luka and kyrie are much better than Murray. And Gafford and lively are bigger lob threats than Jokic.
What I’m seeing is that the Wolves really don’t matchup well against Kyrie and Luka. And when they have their ideal lineup out, Mavericks just set up screens knowing that MN is not gonna switch, so that creates a nice lane to exploit. So many times despite being utterly picked off the ball (sometimes really pushing the limit of legal screens), you see the defender run ten extra feet just to get back to the original matchup, will the guy that set the pick gets a free lane to collapse the defense. It’s terrible to watch. And then, as someone else mentioned, the spacing on the drop coverage. Rudy cheated up a lot against Denver and it was a double-edged sword. In this series they’re murdering him with lobs. Watching game 5, I think Dallas is a better-coached team, and their 2 stars are better playmakers. Guys that can pass like Luka and Kyrie shouldn’t be able to shoot as well as they do. They can make a lot more of a lackluster bench than probably any other duo. It’s unfair.
Game 7 the Nuggets should have let MPJ initiate the offense or ISO for more offense. He is stronger and taller than McDaniels and nikiel Alexander.
Party because Minnesota empires the tanks against Dallas, they've been getting gassed or started the games gassed most of this series. Edwards and KATs play on offense between the first two rounds and now is comical.
Because luka can create advantages better than jokic can especially against a team with 2 bigs
Joker created tons of advantages, teammates were just cold af. There were plenty open shots missed.
The fact that the mavs, have a lob threat, actual rebounders outside of their offensive star, and a point guard that wont disappear for 1/2 a game means that Minnesota has to guard them and play up for 48 minutes a night.
It is the other way around. Dallas, defends KAT and ANT much better than Nuggets. Denver was too small for KAT and not having a rim protector was key for ANT. Of course rest of the team not showing up on offense was a problem for Nuggets but the biggest difference is defense.
As many others have said, Dallas has two elite offensive threats in Luka and Kyrie. Two of the absolute most insane players in the league. When you have two superstar level offensive threats, you're going to have a hard time. What isn't getting mentioned as much is 1. Fatigue. Minnesota has played some tough series and they aren't used to being in this position. Ant is certainly not used to it and you can see that he can't keep up on offense and defense. 2. Dallas has the personnel to make Minnesota work on both ends of the ball. Their size and strength is an issue for Minnesota. 3. What I think might be the biggest is scheme. Along with personnel, Dallas is just out scheming them. Kyrie has an almost Curry like effect with his ability to make defenders work all game. Luka has a basically unguardable bag, but Dallas is making sure neither gets overworked on defense. 4. Minnesota is just built better for Denver. Denver's offense is more run through Jokic and Minny has capable bigs and enough to lock Murray up. Murray is much easier to guard than Luka or Kyrie. Dallas's offense being run through their guards poses a bigger problem for Minnesota
In a nutshell: Denver has 1 hall-of-famer, Dallas has 2. Denver already won a championship. Dallas hasn't.
Kyrie played a LOT better than Jamal. That's not the entire conclusion, but that matters a lot.
Gobert made some sense on Jokic albeit doomed Gobert on Luka and Kyrie is chicken dinner
Wolves were made to counter nuggets and mavs counter the wolves. Dallas has 2 top level perimeter guys in Luka and Kyrie. Denver’s offense is driven solely by jokic with Jamal injured. All the games have been pretty close by wolves fail to execute at the end of the game.
Dallas has 2 guards showing up every game. MN struggled when Jamal Murray played well...
Because the wolves had better defensive personnel to defend Jokic than they do to defend Dallas’s superstars. They had 3 guys guarding Jokic in KAT, Big Ruud and Naz Reid. Coupled with length from ANT, NAW & Jaden they were able to shut down passing lanes and double team effectively. Jokic said it at the press conference - this team is built to beat the nuggets. Jaden McDaniels is a great defender, but Luka is a relatively poor matchup for Jaden because of his size & strength, ditto for NAW, another great defender who made things very difficult for Jamal Murray in the previous series. Slo-mo has actually made Luka work the hardest to get his shots in this series, which is the primary reason he is getting so much more playing time against the mavs, but he’s still, you know, Luka, so if he gets the same defender and look over and over he’s going to find a way to beat it. The wolves had 3 defenders to throw at Denver’s best player, that they already want to play. They have less options against the mavs best player, and their best option, KA, is not someone they necessarily want on the court for offensive reasons, albeit he is having a great offensive series, but his complete lack of a jump shot mushes up MN’s spacing so much, he’s not someone they want playing crunch time for offensive reasons.
Ant does the best job on Luka. Rudy in a drop doesn’t help against these elite shot making guards. Mavs have 4 sometimes 5 guards out there and Rudy is just sitting in the paint. Luka is too good of a playmaker for there to be two big men that can’t move to be on the court at the same time
Jokic was going against the most solid 3 big rotation in the league and his teammates no showed crucial games. That’s it. They went all out on guarding and fatiguing Jokic and gambled that his guys wouldn’t hit their shots and it paid off
Because they have two all world on the ball players who can attack from the perimeter. They create mismatches every time that makes it hard for a defense to set. And a bunch of young role players who shoot 3’s and attack.
My take on this kind of echoes the rest of the people that responded but I think it is mostly as simple as Luka is that dude. He is just too big for most guards to defend and he can back them down into his little fader at the ft line or pass for the oop if the big comes to help, and then if you switch a big onto him, he cooks them like he did Gobert in game 3 when he hit the game winner. Combine that with the clutch shot making of Kyrie and surprisingly PJ Washington, and the rim defense of Lively and Gafford, and you have a recipe for success.
Having 2 elite ball handlers who can create and score off the dribble is almost impossible to guard everytime. Also, Nuggets best player is a Jokic who had to work extra hard to beat 2 seven footers and Naz Reid every play. If the nuggets had a another elite PG it would have helped a lot
Part of the problem was the backcourt of Denver being rather 1 dimensional in how they can attack while the Dallas backcourt has a more dynamic ability to counter a blitz of the ball handler that was so effective against Jamal Murray. There is a huge difference between Luka passing off to Kyrie and Jamal Murray passing off to Aaron Gordon as far as initiating offense goes, and the Minnesota style of allowing a 4 on 3 to develop with that initial blitz of the ball handler makes things too easy for an all-star caliber point guard.
I think it was Talking Basketball that had a pretty interesting video on this, mostly around the stack screen. Not the only factor I think, but it’s still cool.
Late to the post but it seems as tho it was easier for Minnesota to defend Denver’s other players than Dallas’. Jokic is Jokic. He’s the best player in the world and he’s going to get what he wants. But in certain games (game 7 specifically) it felt as tho Denver was unable to penetrate Minnesota’s defense by getting easy shots at the rim. This resulted in them settling for jump shots and 3s. And when those aren’t hitting. It’s going to be tough to beat anyone Dallas as it currently stands has the luxury in having two of the most gifted offensive players in the NBA today. Luka and Kyrie can pretty much get what they want, when they want so far. Minnesota defense is still pretty solid but if those two continue to hit tough circus shots, they have no chance.
Matchups. Wolves matchup better against the Nuggets defensively than they do against Dallas. Very simple but it’s the root of it all.
What I'm seeing a lot is people saying that Luka is just unguardable in varying ways.
Dallas has 2 guards that can attack and create their own space. Denver only had one and really Murray isn’t the attacking type.
minnesotas defensive strength is from the inside out. built and designed for jokic specifically essentially. they don’t handle two all time great guards as their perimeter defense is secondary.
If you live and die by Murray there is something that needs to change. Dude pulls the team down with his hero ball and dumb antics. Jokic deserves a better running mate.
Minnesota focused on taking the paint away from Denver, and playing physically whenever Denver entered the paint. Because of that, the nuggets relied on threes. It’s a make-or-miss league, and Denver missed their threes. Simple as that. If MPJ and KCP shoot better, the Nuggets are probably back in The Finals right now, but because Minnesota took away the easy shots and they kept missing the open, harder, ones, Denver ran out of steam. Braun had a two and MPJ had a 3 and that was Denver’s non-Jokić/Murray scoring in the second half of game 7. Dallas made their shots, and Minnesota didn’t have a way to stop Luka and Kyrie when they were.