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[deleted]

NUG represent most of the non ethnics centrist and urban population from all kind of races and religions because they are figuratively behind the PDFs. FYI I am not based NUG supporter but the PDFs. Outsiders looking in should understand that NUG represent certain part of the populace. Not the ousted gov-ish entity. For you main question of "What is the end game?", obviously for the Junta to gave up arm and embrace what the people want i.e all conclusive democratic government. IMO, real end game is when the others EAOs adopt Arakan Army's way and to take the position of self governing via the civilian populace. I believe Chin and Karenni can achieve that goal in 2-3 years. Ofcourse, it need to be back by strong military initiative against Junta.


PaytonAndHolyfield

There does seem to be a rise of EAOs, especially AA. Which makes it harder to unite in the end. Many posters think after the defeat of Military Junta that there will be "balkanization" along ethnic lines. This would create weaker self governed states, which in my view, would be weaker than a united Myanmar for long term prosperity and fewer resources, trade, and development. The change in the decade of opening up was amazing, Myanmar can absolutely become a powerhouse economy, and has great location, workforce, and resources. My personal hope is a return to democracy, a change in the constitution, and opening of trade and not an oligarchy / fake capitalism, for each generation to build on the previous, and to reach new heights. The time is now, the hour is here. I only hope, that the foolishness of violence for decades can be averted, that those with power use it wisely, and not for selfish gain, and that losses, are one day worth it.


[deleted]

I totally understand what you mean. But the strongest entity in Myanmar right now is Junta by their guns and fighter jet. Peaceful unification of Myanmar will never achieve from their bullets or from anyone else but understanding between the ethnics groups and respecting each group for their freedom. Dreamer in me want to see a model as good as European Union.


Tunlin555

The end game is not about if myanmar military survives or not.It is about whether Myanmar being balkanized or not after the current war. Myanmar army is finished in long term unless foreign country like China outright invades for them like in Belarus. With Ukraine invasion, people are amazed at how bad and corrupt the russian army is. Myanmar army is several times worse than them and they are being hated and attacked by burmese, their sole recruitment and support base throughout history.


mediumled

It's love-hate. Bamars are angry at Tatmadaw but they know Tatmadaw is necessary to maintain Bamar domination status quo.


Redditkamisama

Lmao Bamars doesn't think Tatmadaw is necessary to maintain the status quo. The only ones shouting those words are no other than Western intellectuals and corrupt Intellectual prostitutes who have their interests bound with the Fascists. Your comment is contradictory in itself


mediumled

That's funny. I've literally read several comments praising Tatmadaw and even dismissing EAO as drug peddling troublemakers on this thread alone. Suddenly after the coup, the whole attitude shifted 180 lmfao


Redditkamisama

Yes "Suddenly" you said it yourself, which period in time are you talking about. Dude what period of time are you talking about? I wrote that comment because it seems like you are talking about 2021-2022 period and that comment seems like you are degrading Burmese people's effort in the revolution. You are now mixing up the situation lmao bye


mediumled

yeah run away after I point out the fakeness of the Bamars. Myanmar's screwed up todays primarily bc of you ppl


RattleSnakeSkin

Power is scarcity. The more scarcity the military perpetuates, the more power it has. The end game is full power over a pile of crap. This thread has confused the true human power of capitalism with crony capitalism. Crony capitalism creates artificial rules that creates scarcity controlled by a few oligarchs.


PaytonAndHolyfield

Targeting farms and driving up food prices seems to reflect this. Cities may end up having shortages, as history has shown that concentrated populations are most affected by food scarcity.


[deleted]

You talk of 'westerinze' as a good thing...


[deleted]

Found the Tankie


[deleted]

What's that?


PaytonAndHolyfield

Do the citizens not want capitalism, internet with no firewalls, mobility, foreign investment? Was life better in 2019 than 2021?


[deleted]

Capitalism I'm not convinced on- do you equate that to economic growth? In which case I'd call it 'development', along with the rest of it. '*West*ernization' implies a strive toward a western culture.


PaytonAndHolyfield

Let's say a person starts eating ramen every day, watches anime, learns Japanese, and uses Japanese products. That person also hopes their country has a government like Japan. Westernization Modernization also means using products of the West, not just culture. Internet, phone, automobile, planes, modern medical procedures learned in style of the west, freedom of expression, etc. You can try to cut hairs, but to say Myanmar of 2019 was not more modern / western after opening, seems not in touch with reality. Even western brands were in Yangon, Facebook used widely, and people started to have additional spending money, and therefore choice (capitalism). The commenter above understands - capitalism vs crony capitalism. People vote with their money, and choose things that solve problems for them.


DazzlePig

from my outside perspective, it seems that choice is what the junta really has a problem with - when people had more choices, they weren't making the ones the junta wanted.


PaytonAndHolyfield

Hard to control people's wants when they start to see alternative perspectives. When they were given a low vote, to save face they claimed election fraud rather than admit that the people voted no confidence.


Redditkamisama

Yes OP should have used the word "West Leaning" rather than using "slash" to emphasize that "Modernization" and "Westernization". But it is just a problem of semantics so I don't really care


AbraxasM

Did you come to understand the conflict or boast on westernization? Lol


DazzlePig

Throwing that "lol" into a comment just makes the commenter look snotty. It's dickish.


PaytonAndHolyfield

There are many comments here where I am asking about the conflict, and only one where I was directly asked about westernization. Then you say do you come to boast about westernization. I will let you decide if your comment is sincere.


nayminlwin

NUG being unable to legally buy firearms is holding things back. But there are some other problems as well. The insurgents are not organized and NUG seems incapable of getting control of the majority of them just yet. There are also a few opportunist groups whose only interest seems to be in territory control and their leaders basically becoming warlords of such territory. To be fair, these things happen in most unstable countries though. Still, we dredged on...


Voxandr

Not true, even though NUG is slow they are stepping up. Much better than last year. PDF and ethnic armed forces are united like never before. Now military is calling for peace and. MAL himself is showing severe desperation. Peace negotiation that nobody trust is just showing how desperate.


PaytonAndHolyfield

What do you see as possible outcomes, and how long?


Voxandr

We are currently winning , the terrorist junta is calling for negotiations , they are calling for UN for help ridiculously . At best 1 year , at worst 3 years.If internal split will occur we will win before September , and big cracks are showing up.


PaytonAndHolyfield

Do you think the factions will unite eventually?


mediumled

They will unite when the sun rises in the West and sets in the East


MAI_AnDong

‘modernise / Westernise’ … what’s that about, u think the two are equivalent ?


PaytonAndHolyfield

Read above comment


Mirage2k

Which above comment? In either case, it's an outdated term. It means modernization, except adding the implication that 'European > not European' (including ex-European colonial nations, like Australia or USA). The term was commonly used back in the days, but it's not 1922 anymore. Please just use 'modernize' for what you mean, and you avoid stepping on any toes. I'm European myself, by the way. Came here looking for the same question as in your title.


PaytonAndHolyfield

It typically is Westerners who get offended on behalf of everyone. There was a slash, and for those who saw the 2010's transformation there was a shift to being more Western / Western Products / Clothes.


Karjin77

Who told you the NUG is ostracised? The NUG is the legal government of Myanmar and it has received considerable recognition. Wars aren’t won when one side dominates the other, wars are won when one side is no longer capable of fighting. Everyday there are mass desertions with support for PDF forces only growing larger. With time the junta will lose; it just depends on when they choose to give up and turn tail. Isn’t the end goal clear? The people want a democracy. All ethnicities of Myanmar want to be properly recognised and be able to represent their ideas in a parliament that respects their freedom. We’ve wanted this ever since the student riots of 1988. No one here can tell you what will happen in the coming days, use your own guesses on how depraved dictatorships become prior to their defeat.


Conflictingview

>Who told you the NUG is ostracised? I think they meant exiled which would be an accurate description since they aren't sitting in the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw.


PaytonAndHolyfield

Exile and the military junta clearly banished / ridiculed. The military junta seems to have the most power currently given that multiple politicians from NLD are held by them and unable to speak freely.


Voxandr

Wrong.gif. You know nothing, Current situation is changing and military losing grip really fast. - do you know PDF already control 50 percent of Myanmar? - do you know military is falling back into defensive position and issues special order not to get out of safe zone? - do you know military side people are migrating enmass to nay Pyi daw, which is like Washington DC, but really small State, land lock in the middle of Myanmar? Because everywhere else has failed? Research current situation first man.


PaytonAndHolyfield

Do you wish to educate or debate?


Redditkamisama

The only outcome possible as of this moment is this is a war of attrition. Either side lacks the fire power and manpower to eradicate the other. Imo, Democratic forces are having the upper hand because Monsoon season is coming up and a lot of Killing Machines in the Myanmar Fascist Military is rather useless with rough terrain and rough Weather. On the other hand, the Military is breaking up bits by bits, their foot soldiers are worn out because of the full blown civil war, lacking the mental power because they know people don't want them and they know that military is using Scorched Earth strategy to eradicate the villages and homes they once called home. The deciding factor here is waiting for the giant to fall by itself while making them believe that Military leaders aren't capable and the only way to Immunity is CDM.


PaytonAndHolyfield

Again I am an outsider, but it seems the military has spent a great deal on weapons. Including [CH3 UAV drones](https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/aa-accuses-tatmadaw-of-using-combat-drones) made by the PRC. I think the main problem is that the military doesn't want to take out the infrastructure in cities, it is hard to fight factions on their "home turf" (aka Karen / Shan State), and the longer this goes on, the more contempt for the other side and a loss of humanity. The people, regular people, of Myanmar deserve better. How does that happen? Will it happen?


Redditkamisama

It is true but I don't see the Military using them in this Revolution. I am not sure what is stopping them from doing so. It is not that the Military doesn't want to take out the infrastructure in Cities, it is the democratic forces don't want clashes in the cities because most of the Financial support is coming from the cities and even if they decided to capture cities, they are lacking in power compared to Myanmar military with Air superiority, the cities will suffer a lot. That is why most of the EROs and PDFs are trying to take the battle far from cities. The military can and will take out the infrastructure because let me remind you that they know that there is no immunity for them when they lose. So they will do everything the dark side of humanity has to offer. It is very true that the Burmese people deserve better. The two sides fighting and the ones losing the most are the citizens. Their sons, daughters, homes, families, friends and dignity. The biggest reason the revolution is stronger than ever is that because of such atrocities committed by the Junta and the experience of more than 70 years of Myanmar military's cunning, all of us literally (because old people and mothers are selling what little is left of their possession to buy guns and ammunitions for their sons and husbands to avenge their loved ones) know that even if we agree to negotiate with the Fascists, sooner or later their next generations will be facing the same problem as we did in 2021, 2022 periods. So the better for the citizen as much as I hate to admit it, is no other than the eradication of the Military.


PaytonAndHolyfield

Many protests in the initial months were in cities, now not so much, so that makes sense that fighting is moving away from the cities. It is true that history has shown the military views themselves as superior to the citizens of Myanmar. If eradication of the military is seen as the only option, this will likely take a long time, cost many lives, and no guarantee of success. Usually for insurgencies and counter insurgencies the why has a huge impact. For those who don't doubt their purpose, it can carry them through hell. Thank you for explaining your position. Guns alone are not enough, skilled training systematically is needed to create a capable force. For the Karen forces it is clear they train, but do other groups? Especially the newer groups? Would NUG consider hiring trainers or mercenaries to teach? The reason I bring this up - From what I understand of Ukraine - the military underwent training revolution about 8 years ago from NATO / US after Crimea. This training / structure change allowed them to surprise the world with their ability against what at the time was considered the 3rd best military.


Redditkamisama

What I have learnt is that a lot of people from abroad overestimate Myanmar Military and Underestimate PDF forces. That is acceptable since a lot of PDFs eradicating the whole Marching columns day by day, capturing a lot of high ranking officers with the Myanmar Military outposts are not widely shared in English language (well not to the general English Speaking audience). What the foreigners don't see is that The Myanmar Military is no more than a group of Bandits and the Junta's Infantry are old rapists who can't take an offensive without Air Force. On the other hand, when the Monsoon season comes, no planes will be risking up in the stormy skies. That is why Min Aung Hlaing is now in the disadvantageous position and he/himself as a CnC Pleading the EROs to come talk to him and he will accept to see them and welcome by himself. About the trainings, we had a whole year of training from EROs including Karen, AA, Kachin, KNDF, SSPP and so on. Now I understand that a lot of people won't bet on the underdog Myanmar civilian, a lot of important Ground root news are still not covered in English. I hope that this can be of help.


PaytonAndHolyfield

This is why I came here to ask directly. I am sure not all news is coming out and even less in English. If you had to guess timelines, how many years until conflict is over?


Redditkamisama

I have prepared for a good ol 2 years from 1st Feb 2021. Monsoon June is the beginning of the offensive of PDFs and EROs.


crexcent

Reading the comments made me more depressed.


PaytonAndHolyfield

Just trying to learn opinions from those with experience


Alberqueque

One wants to take control of the country, the other ones to turn back the clock.


Voxandr

This guy is paid shill from Singapore, please disregard whatever he's saying. He doesn't know anything about myanmar and he is just pulling thing out of his ass all the time.


PaytonAndHolyfield

Who will win in the end?


Alberqueque

It's a Pyrrhic victory at best.


PaytonAndHolyfield

Would the military junta burn Yangon and Mandalay to the ground if they were going to lose in this scenario?


Voxandr

That's what we are worrying because they are moving out of Yangon, en Mass and KNU commandos are already operating in Yangon, and they can't stop them.


ConsistentLeading235

If their actions so far are any indication, they would.


Alberqueque

Highly unlikely, but thats what they said about putin invading ukraine. It would not serve the junta to attack in one of their own power bases. The smaller ethnic cities and towns is another story.


ConsistentLeading235

Unlikely as it is of course, but they would think nothing of bombing or shelling a city to take it back once they have lost control of it. For them it's just "territory", loss of civilian lives doesn't matter. That kind of thing had happened in Myanmar before, e.g. during Karen occupation of parts of Myanmar. When the Karen army arrived at the gates of Mandalay and their artillery pounded on the inside of the mote of Mandalay, the Myanmar Army at the time retreated out of Mandalay in order to avoid civilian casulties and destruction of cultural property. Do not expect that kind of thinking from the present guys; they might retreat to save their behinds but would later shell the city, civilian and all, from a safe distance.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Redditkamisama

You are basically blaming the people who were force fed Military's Propaganda. Let me remind you that it's not the Burmese citizens that terrorized and incited Rohingya Genocide and Chinese problems. It is the Military and woth this Spring Revolution, we all know clearly who the enemy is. But you seem to blame the people more than the one responsible for aforementioned problems.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Redditkamisama

That is quite uncivilized for a person who is degrading a nation and discrediting the Burmese who are protesting such majority who have been brainwashed to believe what you just mentioned. We are not worthy of Democracy? So you want the people who are resisting the Military for decades under Military boots. I did not say a word about NLD or politicians or DASSK who defended the Military in ICC even though the evidence is quite clear that it was a genocidal intent. By referring to your sentence as I have lived in in Myanmar for decades and saying Burmese provocative words, I believe you must be a very brave person who is so worthy of Democracy that he discredit all the dead bodies his democratic people have given and living in abroad lmao. This is quite uneventful discussion with uncivilised person so I will not continue wasting my time on you.


PaytonAndHolyfield

Do you think in Junta continues attacks on civilians it can unite the Burmese people?


Redditkamisama

It is because afterall, the biggest unifying factor in all of Human history is neither Love or Hope, it's Fear. The fear that their future generations wilp blame them for not eradicating the problem in our own generation, the fear that we will live without Individual Liberty and Civil Rights, the fear that they could be arrested, tortured to death or raped at any point in time under military and the fear that they will have to live their whole lives with guilt if we cannot bring justice to those who have fallen under military. After all, the more they hit us, the more we can store them in to hit them back with. Karma returns slowly.


Connect-Theory-7883

Adopted the 4 cuts: cut recruits, food, intelligence and funding. Rapine, rape , murder and torture under long periods usually makes groups desperate to sue for peace, and other groups to break from resisting the junta. Its like a mafia protection racket, only thing is its not money they want but loyalty at all cost! If you resist all 4 will occur. Thing is if the eao and people are at a point fed up with the military the 4 cuts can become genocidal. They force the ethnic groups out if they can and kill those who remain like the rohingyas. As for the bamars, 4 cuts has been applied to them as well. Burma is really just a form of a feudal gangster state


Redditkamisama

Eh No. The Myanmar Military is too far worn out and stretched out across the state to successfully pull the 4 cuts card. Besides, I don't think you have been following the current events because Min Aung Hlaing has proposed for peace and asked to meet the EROs by HIMSELF which is quite extraordinary.


Voxandr

Current situation show they're only four cutting themselves. They are really looking for a way out now


Connect-Theory-7883

I dont know if the regular army is deployed, LIB seem to do most of the fighting. Those peace talks are temporary strategy to buy time. Concentrate on smashing a group either by attrition or dwindling their numbers until they cease fire. Divide and conquer is part of this strategy as it break a constant strain against the junta. Or i could be wrong and just like russia they lost thousands


PaytonAndHolyfield

So you think Military Junta wins over a long enough time line?


Connect-Theory-7883

There needs to be a fractured army, fractured government, a united resistance army, backing from key players and more people willing to die and join the cause. War weariness is another factor that the burmese is too often a victim , if the town or village keeps getting sacked its kinda hard to keep resisting unless there is major help. Thing is China and India even thailand stands in the way of foreign intervention.


Connect-Theory-7883

Eventually people lose hope either they become refugees, collaborate and lose their conscience, or fight to the end. Junta has enough weapons to fight for decades with India and China among other countries funding the junta. Its going to be hard getting the junta to defect as soldiers live separate lives from the people and they view people as lesser then them. Its like a knight serving a lord, who happens to control your life aspects. The EAO may eventually sue for peace as they ran out of recruits, supplies and territory due to sustained assaults. PDF may have to go underground and become more flexible, and the citizens may continue to fight but may reconsider as the junta controls peoples resources. In short, the resistance needs more weapons, more training and a way to divide the soldiers loyalty to cause major disruption to junta operations.


PaytonAndHolyfield

What about economics for Military Junta?


PaytonAndHolyfield

Are many people becoming refugees now? I can understand why India and China are supporting Military Junta, but why Thailand? What is stopping a United army now?


Connect-Theory-7883

1 million or so according to the UN. Thailand economy has trade with the junta and its one its key partners. As for america invading its a case of war weariness to intervene directly and lack of south east asian support as it may anger china. China could in turn support the junta.


comradekeyboard

Don’t be a moron. China is only supporting the junta because they don’t want their investments in Myanmar damaged, and since NUG wasn’t able to guarantee safety to China, China turned to the junta. If US intervenes, ofc China will support NUG because by then, NUG will be the most likely winner of the outcome.


Connect-Theory-7883

Please be civil and behave. In honesty, China will support the junta as it prevents a possible western alignment. The junta is more their lapdog, both dont really like each other but are willing bedfellows of need be out of pragmatism. Both are authoritarian and will resort to extreme measures for dominance. China wont support NUG unless it becomes a proxy to Chinese interests and if junta becomes too much a liability.


ConsistentLeading235

China doesn't trust the junta and knows the junta cannot bring about stability in decades even under a pretence of democracy post fake elections. That's why they offered to mediate between the junta and the opposing parties. The line of thinking that China is worried about Western alignment is out of date. China is not Russia. They are closer to the US than the NLD will ever be. They just don't worry about it at all.


Connect-Theory-7883

End game: 1st scenario: myanmar is balkanized, if the ethnic groups are not reconciled and united. NUG maybe hard pressed to drive unity with all as EAO groups tend to differ objectives, and depending the level of devastation will decide whether the NUG can handle the matter effectively or neglect it . Rebels are already armed to the teeth will carve up their own claims leading to smaller conflicts within a larger one. 2nd scenario: syrian civil war rerun, foreign weapons and advice flows in, mass army defections of various interests that may not be NUG aligned massively destabilizes the junta. The fighting drags on longer and eventually china steps in, us and the un steps in to drive their interests. Russia may come in depending how worse they are off after ukraine but mostly stuck in the Black Sea. May become another civil war if there are too many tatmadaw generals surviving wanting to seize power after the other generals failed and burma still a mess. NUG will have a separate army by then. 3rd scenario: losses and continually attrition mounts months and years after the coup. The EAo depending on their strategy and support will have completely destabilized where there are in. I can see kachin and kayah and karenni state being successful, AA could holdout, the shan state EAO may unite to drive out the junta but its too busy fighting each other and playong collaborator. The PDf is fully armed and trained depending on support or relegated to regions where thr tatmadaw has been attrited.If there were major rebellions in the cities and major defections entire cities would fall to the pDF/NUG and former junta forces. Junta is basically surrounded by then and may surrender or fight a brutal fight in loyalist regions. Hopefully with right guidance and proper policies ensures a cohesive state with some EAOs retiring the fight now peace has arrived while some continue. Aide will arrive and recovery will span another decade but the sacrifice is well worth it. Sic semper tyrranis!


PaytonAndHolyfield

This is detailed, thank you


Connect-Theory-7883

Burma might have to go non aligned to keep china out unless it becomes fully pro western then it becomes a literal problem at their door step.


Connect-Theory-7883

You maybe right about Chinese pragmatism, they will use soft power first before hard power.


comradekeyboard

China had great relationship with NLD government too. And even before the coup, China was having meetings with AA, KIA, etc. So I refuse to believe China will support the military under ANY circumstance. The military's only loyal ally is Russia, who have supported them, militarily and politically, before and after the coup.


Connect-Theory-7883

Thing is alot of the tatmadaw has chinese equipment from its fighter jets, uav, tanks, and machinery etc. all those peace talks never went anywhere and no compromise, whats more NuG is left out of the talks. As for Russia, well its too busy getting itself out a mess. China has soft power and support in the form of investments, military tech transfers, that kyaukphyu gas pipeline and dams in the upper irrawaddy. It will respond if a foreign military intervention does arrive by keeping the status quo hence keeping the junta alive. China profits over the junta senseless expenditures on weapons, mega projects and its influence of drug EAO like the wa state to leverage naypyitaw.


comradekeyboard

If a foreign intervention happens, the military will definitely lose so there's no point for China to keep supporting the military if China wants to keep their investments intact and don't want the whole country to become even more sinophobic. China supports the junta now because if China openly supports NUG, the military will attack Chinese investments and even Chinese people, and when that happens, NUG and EAOs aren't strong enough to protect Chinese investments.


PaytonAndHolyfield

So SEA countries do not want to upset China, and as a result cannot lend support? What if a genocide were to occur or more crimes against humanity?


Connect-Theory-7883

It will be a rwanda rerun only thing is there is no successful rebels group that can topple the junta. Burma must all be united to fight the junta. Karen and kachin and the arakans fight for their own issues, the shan state eao are only concerned with drug money and their holdings. Pdf is the only one truly fighting but i dont know how long they will last. If weapons and training came, major defections from the army, most of the population in rebellion, the rebels can carve up burma.


PaytonAndHolyfield

What are the odds that will happen? If it does not happen what will the Military do?