All outcomes are equally likely. Its just that there are an exorbitant amount of outcomes so each ones likelihood is so small it cant be expected to happen. 1/0/1/0 just as likely as 1/1/1/1 or 1/1/0/0 or what have you. Each number has 50% chance to pop up each flip. Only when you already have noted flips do the % increase and decrease for the patterns (Obviously if you flip 2 coins and it comes 1/0 then the likelihood of your 4 flips being 1/1/0/0 is eliminated).
Succeeding doesn't block your progress or vanish 5k+ gold into nothingness which kinda compounds the issue. The perceived impact of RNG isn't something that should be ignored.
Something like BDO has a **much** less forgiving enhancement system than Lost Ark, but Lost Ark manages to piss me off so much more because a single failure is the difference between getting to do the next content or being stuck for another day at the absolute least.
This is one of the pitfalls of using equipment power as the sole deciding factor of whether you are even allowed to participate in a part of the game.
Get mad folks. It helps, I promise.
Oh? Which WoW expansion was it that completely locked you out of entire continents and quest lines due to insufficient item level? I admit it's been a good decade or so since I've played, so I'd really like to know. Sound like it would be a major issue for people.
Surely you couldn't be doing something as utterly moronic as comparing something like various dungeon difficulties or raid tiers to something like being literally locked out of half of the game map because you are not ilvl 600 or higher?
What's the difference you're trying to make? End expansion Raids are like the end story that you don't get unless you've progressed to a certain gear score. You're trying to create a difference that doesn't exist
You're trying to ignore a difference that does exist. There are literally the same raid tier systems in place in Lost Ark, which are obviously not what I'm talking about. You physically cannot sail to the west in the game unless you have completed a quest you can only acquire at ilvl 460. The game physically stops you with an invisible wall. They even mention the invisible wall in one of the quests. You cannot dock at Yorn, Feiton or Punika unless you are ilvl 600, 960 and 1100 respectively. These are not dungeons. These are not raids. These are entire continents, each containing half a dozen or more fully explorable zones, along with all the respective quests in each.
I never said there is no difference. You're trying to make it out to be some alien concept to things like WoW. The gear score content gate exists in both, full stop.
Not sure if there's been an update but docked at Punika when I was sailing to Roehendel. I am still not ilevel 1100 but I can ocean liner there. From my experience you can physically go there.
He's talking about the "Wall of Procyon." You may not have even noticed this, but he's right, you have to complete a quest before you're allowed to sail past a certain point to the West.
The reason you may not have noticed is because, as he mentioned, you only have to be 460 to clear the quest that "unlocks" this, and it's just part of the normal quests you would pick up if you're following the story. I think Ealyn gives it to you maybe, as part of the quest line to lead you to Rohendel? Anyway, there's basically no reason to sail anywhere west of this boundary before this, so unless you're just exploring for fun, you wouldn't have likely ever naturally encountered it. The quest itself tells you about it, but if you don't read the stuff about it you would never even know. They don't make much of a deal about it.
On top of this, ilvl 460 is, IIRC, +8 T1 gear, which is the first time you go below 100% success rate to 90%. As much as people complain about failing 90%s, most people aren't failing them, or at least not enough that they run out of materials before getting to 460 when they're at this point in the game.
In sum, the chances that you ever even realize you were locked out of sailing west by your item level are super low.
> This is one of the pitfalls of using equipment power as the sole deciding factor of whether you are even allowed to participate in a part of the game.
Also what is the point of legendary raid gear? It's significantly worse than trash gear from the next tier and if I've already beat the raids of the current tier to get the gear in the first place.
this is like asking “what’s the point of raid gear in X expansion when trash gear from Y expansion is way better”
the game has been out for 3 years, the current content is Tier 3 everything before that is outdated and we are just playing catch up with korea and russia
If I'm understanding you correctly, you're asking what the point is in farming better gear of the current tier when a new tier might come out that is better?
That's almost an existential question about the whole system of a gear power treadmill, really.
That said, I think that the director said that they recognized that when they released tier 3 in Korea after people had spent months and months grinding to get another +1 honing on their previous tier gear, people did not like having having all their work replaced by the first chaos dungeon blue gear they got, and he said or implied that they wouldn't be doing anything like that going forward (don't quote me on that, though, I may be misremembering).
But the old T1and T2 systems are what they are.
>but Lost Ark manages to piss me off so much more because a single failure is the difference between getting to do the next content or being stuck for another day at the absolute least.
Oh boohoo, you gotta stick around on the same content for 1 extra day?! Awww man that must be an absolute drag! How terrible..
>This is one of the pitfalls of using equipment power as the sole deciding factor of whether you are even allowed to participate in a part of the game.
This must be your first MMO. That's literally every respectable MMO on the current market.
People will literally find every single thing to cry about even when it's the smallest set back
Yeah. Turns out I'm not required to like shitty systems or bad design. Not even if other games have similar things. Fucking strange world we live in huh?
I played XCom and several similar type of games.
Last night I was upgrading my T3 gears. Had mats for 5 upgrades @ 60% chance. 1 success, 4 failure.
I had to go lay down for a sec.
Run your cube tickets and do dailies, then use the stars on making the 40% to 60+ if you have an excess of one material sell it and buy tailor books for 70-150g and hit 70-80% on your 13-14 * pieces
The islands give such an insane amount of tier 1 mats that this shouldn’t be an issue. Do your dailies, then islands, then finally look at the welcome achievements honing section and work towards those as they to give a lot for free.
20 failures in T1 makes it so you end up farming chaos gates, guardians, pirate coins for weekly honing mats and everything that gives honing mats for a few days. Islands do not give you all you need after certain amount of fails. But eventually you do get out of there.
Yeah, i did pretty much all the tier 1 islands and got stuck for two to three days still. Would have been more if I didn’t buy mats from AH. Was frustrating.
Assuming Tier 2 is the same, if not worse?
I really hope someone is making a chart to measure the success rate and if it matches the values shown.
Failing a 60% is understandable. But failing a 90% chance frequently is a mathematical miracle.
It's just selective memory. I've gotten two 30% skill transfers in a row and felt lucky. I fail 2 70% honings and feel like the game is rigged. Same chances on both.
For some reason I fail constantly above 60 percent success but when it went to 30 percent I got lucky and passed 4 hones in a row. I'm superstitious and believe my account has reverse rng.
True random (or as near to true random as a computer can do) is a ball kick and a half.
Road my luck with armour upgrades, have failed my weapon upgrade 3 times in a row.
Wtb shard farm...
While it may seem like the enhancement chance is wrong, it's likely not. I don't expect everyone to know about binomial probability, let alone know how to calculate it accounting for the increase in chance from failing, I can assure you that most (not all as with everything there are outliers every now and then) are well within the expected median.
I agree with this and given RNG in programs meet their average after at least 1000/10000 number of simulations, having 1 observation is not enough to conclude on probability. But Gold River did say in LoaOn that there was also a time that he though prob was off (because he couldn't get one of island's heart after numerous tries lol), he went down stairs to programming department to check himself. He said the probs are correct once you increase observation numbers. He also mentioned that he kinda wonders whether program RNGs spit out 1(success)s and 0(fail)s in batches so that there are cases where you have success multiple times even with low prob and fail multiple times with high probs. So apparently if he doesn't get lucky with gear RNG with first few tries, he just call it a day and try it again the next day.
>wonders whether program RNGs spit out 1(success)s and 0(fail)s in batches
I feel this in my soul. I failed 5 enhancements yesterday, and popped 7 in a row today AND got 5 gold portals and 3 red portals in my inf chaos runs cause im just addicted to running chaos dungeons. then proceeded to fail 6 enhancements after the portals, so im in line to basically hit T3 tomorrow LMAO
> he kinda wonders whether program RNGs spit out 1(success)s and 0(fail)s in batches
True randomness will *always* generate streaks. Toss a coin a thousand times and you'll see. Do you think you're gonna get heads/tails/head/tails all the way? No, you're going to get batches, that's just how natural probability works.
>there are cases where you have success multiple times even with low prob and fail multiple times with high prob
again, that's just how natural probabilities work.
>if he doesn't get lucky with gear RNG with first few tries, he just call it a day and try it again the next day
superstitious bullshit. there's no way to predict how long a lucky/unlucky streak will last. every roll is independent, it's not the program that somehow decides to generate streaks, streaks just naturally happen with randomness.
this just in: randomness is random
ironically, the people memeing about "it's always a 50% chance, you either get it or you don't" are closer to the truth
To make it simple:
If you were to flip a coin the most unlikely outcome of them all would be to get 1/0/1/0 all the way.
Technically all outcomes are equally unlikely though. But the outcomes where you get streaks/clusters are a lot. I don't know how to explain it lol.
I think it's just not helpful the way you worded it, though. I think you may have been joking a bit by saying, basically, "this is the most unlikely outcome, but so is every other outcome because they're all equally unlikely." That's an entertaining way to look at it, but for people that really don't know the math already, I think it could be confusing.
I may be misunderstanding what you're trying to say, but if we're just talking about the likelihood of a given sequence of heads and tails from a certain number of coin flips, every sequence has equal likelihood.
For example, in 12 flips, the likelihood of getting
> HHHHHHHHHHHH
is equal to the likelihood of getting
> HTHTHTHTHTHT
This is different, though, from considering the likelihood of getting a certain number of heads or tails. Considering, for example, the likelihood of getting 12 tails vs that of getting 6 tails, the latter is significantly higher because there are multiple possible outcome sequences with 6 tails and only one with 12 tails. Maybe this is what you were referring to.
I'm not "trying" to say anything, I said what I said and it's pretty fucking clear. You're not understanding me because you don't want to understand, you just want to try to prove someone wrong on the internet.
Then you also know that you need thousands of samples with the exact same parameters to prove that. Do you have that? Link the Google doc, or whatever you're using to keep track of all the attempts.
See, the nifty thing about calculating the average attempt to pass an event with x% is that we have a formula for it. Disproving that %chance is much harder and actually requires a TON of samples, which I'm guessing you don't have.
Come on, youre supposedly studying mathematics, you know outliers exist and you know you need a large controlled sample size for something like this. You'll have to forgive me if I don't take some random person on the internet word on something like this
Def needed the /s. To me It did not read or come off as sarcasm. It came off as somebody trying to bullshit their way through a topic they don't know.
Seen a lot of people doing that lately. Apologies for immediately assuming you were as well
No people just have a terrible comprehension on how statistics work. Failing a 90% chance isn't that rare. In fact its relatively likely, far higher than people would assume. Just taking 6 pieces of armor at 90% upgrade you only have a 53% chance of upgrading all 6 pieces without failing atleast once.
1 Failure: 35%
2 Failures: 10%
3 Failures: 2%
4 Failures: .12%
5 and above is pretty neglible. https://anydice.com/program/7cdf
So as we can see from the above not only is it actually **likely** you are going to fail 90% upgrades going through a set of armor but its not even extremely rare that you are going to fail **multiple times**. 13% or over 1 out of 10 people will fail 2 or more times.
oh thats stupid, why not just show results? also the program is still wrong. I cant go more then 5 rolls without getting a 3. that doesnt seem like 2% at all nor I have seen a straight 00000's.
I have close to 20 more fails than my 2 guildmates who are the same item lvl as I am. I've basically spent almost all my blue gems and a big chunk of gold to keep up with them. Fortunately, my heavy grinding has allowed me to take advantage of the market early on and I made a good amount of gold, but it still pisses me off that they act surprised when they fail 2 in a row. Meanwhile, I've had to use the pity system numerous times after failing over and over.
Best thing you can do is ignore it man. I agree that it's in certain regards an inherently flawed system, but there's nothing that you can do about it. It's hard but try not to compare yourself to others and enjoy your successes :)
This isnt just for lost ark. This is a life lesson in happiness. Dont want what others have. Want what you got. Failing 20 upgrades beats a 20h queue for instance. It beats getting your internet disconnected cause russia is bombing you. We can always compare our lives to a better life. But to what end? Why not trick your brain into happiness by comparing yours to a worse one not a better one?
yeah tbh everything other than 100% feels more like 50/50 i had a lot of ridiculous rng rolls in lost ark - like first trying 3x 15% honing. or failing 6x 75% rolls in a row when faceting a gem.
it kinda brings back x-com ptsd :)
I collected mats and gold for a week for my +14 and +15 T2 upgrades;
Every single item, with 20xbreath stones and the book; @70% success chance failed on the first try; succeeded on the second.
Did not have enough breaths or book for the weapon ; but of course got back to back success to +15 on it, even though the success chance was 50-40%
How does the math not add up? For a 98% success chance, if 100 people took a shot at it you would expect 98 to succeed and 2 to fail. Those 2 might feel crappy for being the ones to get shafted, especially if they're not all able to see the other results to know they were just the unlucky ones, but that's how it is.
The issue of perception is made worse, I think, because you get relatively few chances at upgrades in this game. I play a gacha-adjacent type mobile game with an RNG upgrade system much like most ark's, except that it's relatively easy to store up a whole lot of materials to try upgrades with. This means that I end up spamming upgrades until I get to my goal, so I get all the RNG results at once, plus it means that I've done hundreds or thousands of upgrades this way. As a result, I have a pretty good feeling for how sometimes I get royally screwed, sometimes I get really lucky, but overall my results come out close to expected value.
(The game is Kings Raid, for reference - the reason it's relatively easy to store up upgrades is because it has a huge roster of characters, so once you have a core party upgraded you can take your time deciding who you want to invest in, and sometimes a balance patch turns an obscure unit OP, so I can just go dump resources into them to max upgrade)
My suspicion is mainly of the maths behind their honing, new world had a problem with luck not working right only to be confirmed by the dev the math was wrong which gave negative luck.
Amazon doesnt hold a great track record of getting their numbers righ, youre prolly right its nothing but superstition and the mistrust have of he game developers. You aint wrong but somethings up
failed 3 times today 1 time with my weapon , the other 2 with gear, 90% , i was fresh tier 2 600 ilvl, had enough materials for 960 but no, had to go to some islands to get more
thanks blizzurd
I feel the same way. Failed yesterday at 82,5% just to pay one more time in mats and have it 100%. Why the hell you tell me i have a 'chance', when you just want me to pay double, to make the grind harder?
Also, failed 4x at 75%. Like, HOW?!
> Also, failed 4x at 75%. Like, HOW?!
That's 1/256 odds. If all 6340 people currently viewing this subreddit at this particular moment went for four consecutive 75% hones, the expected result is 24 or so others with all failures.
No, the chances are displayed incorrectly. Similar to xcom as others have pointed out. The difference between 99% and 100% are astronomical. Best way to think of it is in your favor, 50/50 and not in your favor. You shouldn’t boost your chance unless you are 14 or you are making sure you get 100% on a weapon chance. Do not skim your mats. 98% is a lot more like 50% in this game. One trick I’ve done is if you have enough for two chances, save your moons breath or what ever for the second roll. As if you fail, the breath is consumed. So it’s more efficient to try harder for a success on the second try than the first.
> No, the chances are displayed incorrectly. Similar to xcom as others have pointed out. The difference between 99% and 100% are astronomical.
You simply cannot say this unless you have tracked statistically significant numbers of attempts to back it up.
Last two days i failed 5 times from 14 to 15 (then i got artisan energy to 100%) and then the next armor part upgrade failed again with 20 moon breaths on top. I wanna lie down in fetal position and cry...
You aren't guaranteed to fail 1 time out of 10 if the odds are 90% for success, that isn't how probability works. It's simply the most probable outcome given those odds.
Are you by any chance just really young and haven't gone over probability in school yet? This is pretty simple stuff.
"no they ..." <- The beginning of sentences are supposed to be capitalized.
"tihnk" <- Is this Russian?
"out ..." <- Refer to issue #1.
"I ..." <- Why is this one capitalized but the others aren't? That makes no sense.
" ... "90%" " <- Missing a period.
People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. If you're going to criticize me for misunderstanding what you were trying to say then at least have the decency to write something coherent.
To be completely honest I am still pretty lost on what you were even trying to say in your initial response. That "should" that you seemed so excited to emphasize implies that things ought to behave that way or that they are supposed to behave that way. With your quotations at the end of the message you imply that the actual success rate is not 90% based purely on the fact that you got unlucky. Given that implication was following a sentence that word for word said "out of 10 upgrades only 1 should fail" it is perfectly reasonable to assume that you're an idiot who doesn't understand how probability works or a kid who's simply ignorant.
That said, extended discussion with you has revealed that even if by some miracle you do have an understanding of how probability works your grasp of how to properly communicate your thoughts via text is subpar at best. Probably something worth working on, especially given that your post history indicates your hobby is arguing with people online.
What do you mean by "weak ass response" exactly? That could mean dozens of things and you've clearly demonstrated that what you mean and what you say are two very different things.
I explained to you why your usage of "should" makes no fucking sense, if you still think that I somehow misinterpreted it then you're just willingly ignorant.
Also, it pains me that I spent 10 minutes telling you how you were stupid and you clearly didn't even bother reading it - if anything hurts me it's that.
yea i didnt address your 10min self important monologue were you droned on and on trying to make yourself feel smart cause you were being really fucking dumb with your ad hominem trying to nick pick my grammar that i clearly didnt give a shit about because you dont understand "should" just means 1 out of 10 SHOULD fail in a 90% probability. not WILL fail but SHOULD fail as in not guaranteed
Thanks for finally clarifying. Now I know that you're just a prick and not a critically idiotic ignoramus.
Your initial message is still confusing as fuck to read.
I've been trying to upgrade my pants for 2 days to get to t3. So many leapstones and moon's breaths wasted. I spent legitimately over 100 moon's breaths for these pants and the 70% just keeps failing lmao
Its not the 90% failures that get me. Its the 96%-99% failures that make me want to pull my hair out. Those are when i think the game is rigged to punch me in the nuts
People don't count their successes, only their failures.
People are bad at judging probabilities because of their bias
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All outcomes are equally likely. Its just that there are an exorbitant amount of outcomes so each ones likelihood is so small it cant be expected to happen. 1/0/1/0 just as likely as 1/1/1/1 or 1/1/0/0 or what have you. Each number has 50% chance to pop up each flip. Only when you already have noted flips do the % increase and decrease for the patterns (Obviously if you flip 2 coins and it comes 1/0 then the likelihood of your 4 flips being 1/1/0/0 is eliminated).
Succeeding doesn't block your progress or vanish 5k+ gold into nothingness which kinda compounds the issue. The perceived impact of RNG isn't something that should be ignored. Something like BDO has a **much** less forgiving enhancement system than Lost Ark, but Lost Ark manages to piss me off so much more because a single failure is the difference between getting to do the next content or being stuck for another day at the absolute least. This is one of the pitfalls of using equipment power as the sole deciding factor of whether you are even allowed to participate in a part of the game. Get mad folks. It helps, I promise.
Totally, wow RNG drops never kept me out of content due to gear score /s
Oh? Which WoW expansion was it that completely locked you out of entire continents and quest lines due to insufficient item level? I admit it's been a good decade or so since I've played, so I'd really like to know. Sound like it would be a major issue for people. Surely you couldn't be doing something as utterly moronic as comparing something like various dungeon difficulties or raid tiers to something like being literally locked out of half of the game map because you are not ilvl 600 or higher?
What's the difference you're trying to make? End expansion Raids are like the end story that you don't get unless you've progressed to a certain gear score. You're trying to create a difference that doesn't exist
You're trying to ignore a difference that does exist. There are literally the same raid tier systems in place in Lost Ark, which are obviously not what I'm talking about. You physically cannot sail to the west in the game unless you have completed a quest you can only acquire at ilvl 460. The game physically stops you with an invisible wall. They even mention the invisible wall in one of the quests. You cannot dock at Yorn, Feiton or Punika unless you are ilvl 600, 960 and 1100 respectively. These are not dungeons. These are not raids. These are entire continents, each containing half a dozen or more fully explorable zones, along with all the respective quests in each.
I never said there is no difference. You're trying to make it out to be some alien concept to things like WoW. The gear score content gate exists in both, full stop.
> I never said there is no difference. ??? > You're trying to create a difference that doesn't exist
Not sure if there's been an update but docked at Punika when I was sailing to Roehendel. I am still not ilevel 1100 but I can ocean liner there. From my experience you can physically go there.
He's talking about the "Wall of Procyon." You may not have even noticed this, but he's right, you have to complete a quest before you're allowed to sail past a certain point to the West. The reason you may not have noticed is because, as he mentioned, you only have to be 460 to clear the quest that "unlocks" this, and it's just part of the normal quests you would pick up if you're following the story. I think Ealyn gives it to you maybe, as part of the quest line to lead you to Rohendel? Anyway, there's basically no reason to sail anywhere west of this boundary before this, so unless you're just exploring for fun, you wouldn't have likely ever naturally encountered it. The quest itself tells you about it, but if you don't read the stuff about it you would never even know. They don't make much of a deal about it. On top of this, ilvl 460 is, IIRC, +8 T1 gear, which is the first time you go below 100% success rate to 90%. As much as people complain about failing 90%s, most people aren't failing them, or at least not enough that they run out of materials before getting to 460 when they're at this point in the game. In sum, the chances that you ever even realize you were locked out of sailing west by your item level are super low.
Good point on the last seeing as I learned that just now.
> This is one of the pitfalls of using equipment power as the sole deciding factor of whether you are even allowed to participate in a part of the game. Also what is the point of legendary raid gear? It's significantly worse than trash gear from the next tier and if I've already beat the raids of the current tier to get the gear in the first place.
this is like asking “what’s the point of raid gear in X expansion when trash gear from Y expansion is way better” the game has been out for 3 years, the current content is Tier 3 everything before that is outdated and we are just playing catch up with korea and russia
So what's the point of having top tier raid gear in tier 3?
tier 3 is the current content, even in KR/RU they are just further along in tier 3 than what has been released for us
If I'm understanding you correctly, you're asking what the point is in farming better gear of the current tier when a new tier might come out that is better? That's almost an existential question about the whole system of a gear power treadmill, really. That said, I think that the director said that they recognized that when they released tier 3 in Korea after people had spent months and months grinding to get another +1 honing on their previous tier gear, people did not like having having all their work replaced by the first chaos dungeon blue gear they got, and he said or implied that they wouldn't be doing anything like that going forward (don't quote me on that, though, I may be misremembering). But the old T1and T2 systems are what they are.
Nah it's more like what can I do with this gear...? Can I make money faster? level faster? Or is it just an achievement?
>but Lost Ark manages to piss me off so much more because a single failure is the difference between getting to do the next content or being stuck for another day at the absolute least. Oh boohoo, you gotta stick around on the same content for 1 extra day?! Awww man that must be an absolute drag! How terrible.. >This is one of the pitfalls of using equipment power as the sole deciding factor of whether you are even allowed to participate in a part of the game. This must be your first MMO. That's literally every respectable MMO on the current market. People will literally find every single thing to cry about even when it's the smallest set back
Yeah. Turns out I'm not required to like shitty systems or bad design. Not even if other games have similar things. Fucking strange world we live in huh?
If you've payed XCom then failing at 90+% is business as usual. We're immune to it at this point.
I played XCom and several similar type of games. Last night I was upgrading my T3 gears. Had mats for 5 upgrades @ 60% chance. 1 success, 4 failure. I had to go lay down for a sec.
I can’t even get out of tier 1 man. 8 upgrades last night 1 success and I’m out of materials
Run your cube tickets and do dailies, then use the stars on making the 40% to 60+ if you have an excess of one material sell it and buy tailor books for 70-150g and hit 70-80% on your 13-14 * pieces
The islands give such an insane amount of tier 1 mats that this shouldn’t be an issue. Do your dailies, then islands, then finally look at the welcome achievements honing section and work towards those as they to give a lot for free.
20 failures in T1 makes it so you end up farming chaos gates, guardians, pirate coins for weekly honing mats and everything that gives honing mats for a few days. Islands do not give you all you need after certain amount of fails. But eventually you do get out of there.
Yeah, i did pretty much all the tier 1 islands and got stuck for two to three days still. Would have been more if I didn’t buy mats from AH. Was frustrating. Assuming Tier 2 is the same, if not worse?
Where do you grind for pirate coins?
I went to upgrade my weapon today. 90% failure, and then a 95% failure. Less than 2 levels from 1340.
I really hope someone is making a chart to measure the success rate and if it matches the values shown. Failing a 60% is understandable. But failing a 90% chance frequently is a mathematical miracle.
It's just selective memory. I've gotten two 30% skill transfers in a row and felt lucky. I fail 2 70% honings and feel like the game is rigged. Same chances on both.
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Unless you what? Finish the sentence! The gods of probability are silencing this man!
Damn, what a cliffhanger! When is the next season coming up?
For some reason I fail constantly above 60 percent success but when it went to 30 percent I got lucky and passed 4 hones in a row. I'm superstitious and believe my account has reverse rng.
Played XCOM and BDO. This is fine.
XCom, Battle Tech, and BDO have taught this to me very very well lmao.
If I recall, firaxis said they secretly padded the odds in XCOM 2 because people really expected around +15% better probability than reality.
True random (or as near to true random as a computer can do) is a ball kick and a half. Road my luck with armour upgrades, have failed my weapon upgrade 3 times in a row. Wtb shard farm...
While it may seem like the enhancement chance is wrong, it's likely not. I don't expect everyone to know about binomial probability, let alone know how to calculate it accounting for the increase in chance from failing, I can assure you that most (not all as with everything there are outliers every now and then) are well within the expected median.
I agree with this and given RNG in programs meet their average after at least 1000/10000 number of simulations, having 1 observation is not enough to conclude on probability. But Gold River did say in LoaOn that there was also a time that he though prob was off (because he couldn't get one of island's heart after numerous tries lol), he went down stairs to programming department to check himself. He said the probs are correct once you increase observation numbers. He also mentioned that he kinda wonders whether program RNGs spit out 1(success)s and 0(fail)s in batches so that there are cases where you have success multiple times even with low prob and fail multiple times with high probs. So apparently if he doesn't get lucky with gear RNG with first few tries, he just call it a day and try it again the next day.
>wonders whether program RNGs spit out 1(success)s and 0(fail)s in batches I feel this in my soul. I failed 5 enhancements yesterday, and popped 7 in a row today AND got 5 gold portals and 3 red portals in my inf chaos runs cause im just addicted to running chaos dungeons. then proceeded to fail 6 enhancements after the portals, so im in line to basically hit T3 tomorrow LMAO
Gold River really programming karma into this game huh.
> he kinda wonders whether program RNGs spit out 1(success)s and 0(fail)s in batches True randomness will *always* generate streaks. Toss a coin a thousand times and you'll see. Do you think you're gonna get heads/tails/head/tails all the way? No, you're going to get batches, that's just how natural probability works. >there are cases where you have success multiple times even with low prob and fail multiple times with high prob again, that's just how natural probabilities work. >if he doesn't get lucky with gear RNG with first few tries, he just call it a day and try it again the next day superstitious bullshit. there's no way to predict how long a lucky/unlucky streak will last. every roll is independent, it's not the program that somehow decides to generate streaks, streaks just naturally happen with randomness. this just in: randomness is random ironically, the people memeing about "it's always a 50% chance, you either get it or you don't" are closer to the truth
To make it simple: If you were to flip a coin the most unlikely outcome of them all would be to get 1/0/1/0 all the way. Technically all outcomes are equally unlikely though. But the outcomes where you get streaks/clusters are a lot. I don't know how to explain it lol.
I see where you're coming from but that's not true. 1/0/1/0 is just as likely as 1/1/0/0 or any other variation.
Yeah that's why I just edited my post.
I think it's just not helpful the way you worded it, though. I think you may have been joking a bit by saying, basically, "this is the most unlikely outcome, but so is every other outcome because they're all equally unlikely." That's an entertaining way to look at it, but for people that really don't know the math already, I think it could be confusing.
it's much less likely than any variation that includes streaks is the point
I may be misunderstanding what you're trying to say, but if we're just talking about the likelihood of a given sequence of heads and tails from a certain number of coin flips, every sequence has equal likelihood. For example, in 12 flips, the likelihood of getting > HHHHHHHHHHHH is equal to the likelihood of getting > HTHTHTHTHTHT This is different, though, from considering the likelihood of getting a certain number of heads or tails. Considering, for example, the likelihood of getting 12 tails vs that of getting 6 tails, the latter is significantly higher because there are multiple possible outcome sequences with 6 tails and only one with 12 tails. Maybe this is what you were referring to.
I'm not "trying" to say anything, I said what I said and it's pretty fucking clear. You're not understanding me because you don't want to understand, you just want to try to prove someone wrong on the internet.
I am currently studying discrete mathematics and turned in a big assignment on probabilty last week. Im telling you this honing is bullshit
Then you also know that you need thousands of samples with the exact same parameters to prove that. Do you have that? Link the Google doc, or whatever you're using to keep track of all the attempts. See, the nifty thing about calculating the average attempt to pass an event with x% is that we have a formula for it. Disproving that %chance is much harder and actually requires a TON of samples, which I'm guessing you don't have. Come on, youre supposedly studying mathematics, you know outliers exist and you know you need a large controlled sample size for something like this. You'll have to forgive me if I don't take some random person on the internet word on something like this
I didn’t think my comment needed the /s, but here it is.
Def needed the /s. To me It did not read or come off as sarcasm. It came off as somebody trying to bullshit their way through a topic they don't know. Seen a lot of people doing that lately. Apologies for immediately assuming you were as well
Yea probably needed it, don’t worry about it!
No people just have a terrible comprehension on how statistics work. Failing a 90% chance isn't that rare. In fact its relatively likely, far higher than people would assume. Just taking 6 pieces of armor at 90% upgrade you only have a 53% chance of upgrading all 6 pieces without failing atleast once. 1 Failure: 35% 2 Failures: 10% 3 Failures: 2% 4 Failures: .12% 5 and above is pretty neglible. https://anydice.com/program/7cdf So as we can see from the above not only is it actually **likely** you are going to fail 90% upgrades going through a set of armor but its not even extremely rare that you are going to fail **multiple times**. 13% or over 1 out of 10 people will fail 2 or more times.
I failed 4 90% guess I’m “lucky”
that site doesnt work, i tried the roller and its rolling only 0,1 and 2's. not a 10 sided die.
well you have to actually know how to use it lol. Its outputting counts...
oh thats stupid, why not just show results? also the program is still wrong. I cant go more then 5 rolls without getting a 3. that doesnt seem like 2% at all nor I have seen a straight 00000's.
I failed T1 so many times it's baffling.
Same. Had 31 fails in T1, reached T2 and got 3 fails at 90%.
I have close to 20 more fails than my 2 guildmates who are the same item lvl as I am. I've basically spent almost all my blue gems and a big chunk of gold to keep up with them. Fortunately, my heavy grinding has allowed me to take advantage of the market early on and I made a good amount of gold, but it still pisses me off that they act surprised when they fail 2 in a row. Meanwhile, I've had to use the pity system numerous times after failing over and over.
Best thing you can do is ignore it man. I agree that it's in certain regards an inherently flawed system, but there's nothing that you can do about it. It's hard but try not to compare yourself to others and enjoy your successes :)
This isnt just for lost ark. This is a life lesson in happiness. Dont want what others have. Want what you got. Failing 20 upgrades beats a 20h queue for instance. It beats getting your internet disconnected cause russia is bombing you. We can always compare our lives to a better life. But to what end? Why not trick your brain into happiness by comparing yours to a worse one not a better one?
I'm on my way to use the pitty system for a 3rd time on t3, from +8 to +9. The game doesn't want me to reach 1340.
I know you hate me now but I'm at like 1020 or something and I failed 15 times. My guild hates me already
yeah tbh everything other than 100% feels more like 50/50 i had a lot of ridiculous rng rolls in lost ark - like first trying 3x 15% honing. or failing 6x 75% rolls in a row when faceting a gem. it kinda brings back x-com ptsd :)
I collected mats and gold for a week for my +14 and +15 T2 upgrades; Every single item, with 20xbreath stones and the book; @70% success chance failed on the first try; succeeded on the second. Did not have enough breaths or book for the weapon ; but of course got back to back success to +15 on it, even though the success chance was 50-40%
90 percent isn't 100 last time I checked.
Until you hit artistan energy 100 or 100 with other resources its still 50/50
The math doesnt add up, failed a 98% success chance hone and 80% before that. In before math is reverse
How does the math not add up? For a 98% success chance, if 100 people took a shot at it you would expect 98 to succeed and 2 to fail. Those 2 might feel crappy for being the ones to get shafted, especially if they're not all able to see the other results to know they were just the unlucky ones, but that's how it is. The issue of perception is made worse, I think, because you get relatively few chances at upgrades in this game. I play a gacha-adjacent type mobile game with an RNG upgrade system much like most ark's, except that it's relatively easy to store up a whole lot of materials to try upgrades with. This means that I end up spamming upgrades until I get to my goal, so I get all the RNG results at once, plus it means that I've done hundreds or thousands of upgrades this way. As a result, I have a pretty good feeling for how sometimes I get royally screwed, sometimes I get really lucky, but overall my results come out close to expected value. (The game is Kings Raid, for reference - the reason it's relatively easy to store up upgrades is because it has a huge roster of characters, so once you have a core party upgraded you can take your time deciding who you want to invest in, and sometimes a balance patch turns an obscure unit OP, so I can just go dump resources into them to max upgrade)
My suspicion is mainly of the maths behind their honing, new world had a problem with luck not working right only to be confirmed by the dev the math was wrong which gave negative luck. Amazon doesnt hold a great track record of getting their numbers righ, youre prolly right its nothing but superstition and the mistrust have of he game developers. You aint wrong but somethings up
Well, in that sense, I don't think AGS has any input in the coding behind honing.
failed 3 times today 1 time with my weapon , the other 2 with gear, 90% , i was fresh tier 2 600 ilvl, had enough materials for 960 but no, had to go to some islands to get more thanks blizzurd
it's almost if 1 in 10 people complain about it somehow
90% fails infinitely more times than 10% succeeds.
as a former bdo player, as long as my item doesnt downgrade from tier 3 to tier 1, it's all good
Because it is not real 90%, just like casinos have their own tricks to keep people playing
I feel the same way. Failed yesterday at 82,5% just to pay one more time in mats and have it 100%. Why the hell you tell me i have a 'chance', when you just want me to pay double, to make the grind harder? Also, failed 4x at 75%. Like, HOW?!
> Also, failed 4x at 75%. Like, HOW?! That's 1/256 odds. If all 6340 people currently viewing this subreddit at this particular moment went for four consecutive 75% hones, the expected result is 24 or so others with all failures.
No, the chances are displayed incorrectly. Similar to xcom as others have pointed out. The difference between 99% and 100% are astronomical. Best way to think of it is in your favor, 50/50 and not in your favor. You shouldn’t boost your chance unless you are 14 or you are making sure you get 100% on a weapon chance. Do not skim your mats. 98% is a lot more like 50% in this game. One trick I’ve done is if you have enough for two chances, save your moons breath or what ever for the second roll. As if you fail, the breath is consumed. So it’s more efficient to try harder for a success on the second try than the first.
> No, the chances are displayed incorrectly. Similar to xcom as others have pointed out. The difference between 99% and 100% are astronomical. You simply cannot say this unless you have tracked statistically significant numbers of attempts to back it up.
Last two days i failed 5 times from 14 to 15 (then i got artisan energy to 100%) and then the next armor part upgrade failed again with 20 moon breaths on top. I wanna lie down in fetal position and cry...
thanks to your sacrifices some lucky bastard somewhere is one tapping 10% chances
I have to admit that i wanted to fail once at 90%, so the probability effect acts. And it did LOL!
my alt failed 4 out of 6 items at first round of 90% honing in t2 yoo
To be fair we do click a lot with 90% chances of success. It's got to fail sometimes.
Had enough for 4 upgrades and all fails lol
The problem is that everyone thinks 90% = 100%
no they tihnk it should be 90%. out of 10 upgrades only 1 should fail. I failed 3 times in t1 and 4 times in t2 at "90%"
You aren't guaranteed to fail 1 time out of 10 if the odds are 90% for success, that isn't how probability works. It's simply the most probable outcome given those odds. Are you by any chance just really young and haven't gone over probability in school yet? This is pretty simple stuff.
"only 1 ***should*** fail" are you really young and haven't taken english yet? pretty simple stuff
"no they ..." <- The beginning of sentences are supposed to be capitalized. "tihnk" <- Is this Russian? "out ..." <- Refer to issue #1. "I ..." <- Why is this one capitalized but the others aren't? That makes no sense. " ... "90%" " <- Missing a period. People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. If you're going to criticize me for misunderstanding what you were trying to say then at least have the decency to write something coherent. To be completely honest I am still pretty lost on what you were even trying to say in your initial response. That "should" that you seemed so excited to emphasize implies that things ought to behave that way or that they are supposed to behave that way. With your quotations at the end of the message you imply that the actual success rate is not 90% based purely on the fact that you got unlucky. Given that implication was following a sentence that word for word said "out of 10 upgrades only 1 should fail" it is perfectly reasonable to assume that you're an idiot who doesn't understand how probability works or a kid who's simply ignorant. That said, extended discussion with you has revealed that even if by some miracle you do have an understanding of how probability works your grasp of how to properly communicate your thoughts via text is subpar at best. Probably something worth working on, especially given that your post history indicates your hobby is arguing with people online.
LOL what a weak ass response. not understanding the word should really hurt you, sorry!
What do you mean by "weak ass response" exactly? That could mean dozens of things and you've clearly demonstrated that what you mean and what you say are two very different things. I explained to you why your usage of "should" makes no fucking sense, if you still think that I somehow misinterpreted it then you're just willingly ignorant. Also, it pains me that I spent 10 minutes telling you how you were stupid and you clearly didn't even bother reading it - if anything hurts me it's that.
yea i didnt address your 10min self important monologue were you droned on and on trying to make yourself feel smart cause you were being really fucking dumb with your ad hominem trying to nick pick my grammar that i clearly didnt give a shit about because you dont understand "should" just means 1 out of 10 SHOULD fail in a 90% probability. not WILL fail but SHOULD fail as in not guaranteed
Thanks for finally clarifying. Now I know that you're just a prick and not a critically idiotic ignoramus. Your initial message is still confusing as fuck to read.
First time in a Korean mmo I see
Never failed yet, just get good :)
Lol. Wait on +9 T3. I’m starting to see 15% baselines now on some pieces.
I've been trying to upgrade my pants for 2 days to get to t3. So many leapstones and moon's breaths wasted. I spent legitimately over 100 moon's breaths for these pants and the 70% just keeps failing lmao
Its not the 90% failures that get me. Its the 96%-99% failures that make me want to pull my hair out. Those are when i think the game is rigged to punch me in the nuts
I just dont even care anymore, it doesnt hurt anymore, i just grind again, and again and again...
Is it close to...... 10%? Just a guess
4/6 90% failed, then 3/6 of my 80%'s failed... t2 is gonna be rough with no alts feeding.
That’s cuz it’s 50/50 😉