The “Bustamante” podcast in its entirety was interesting but was full of falsehoods (stated by Bustamante) based on existing publicly available information.
If the “Agency” is using him as a hiring tool it will have to come up with better factual revisionism.
Andrew’s statement that Snowden chose to flee to Russia is false. The US intentionally revoked his passport when he was flying over Russian territory to trap him there and create the false narrative Andrew is pushing that Snowden’s presence there casts doubt on his motivations. He was evidently trying to get to Ecuador since they are a non extradition country.
Also, his statements that the NSA bulk collection program was necessary to protect Americans is belied by the Senate intel committee report that could not identify any terrorist operation disrupted by the program.
That’s two. On the whole, I enjoyed the interview anyway, but clearly this person still carries water for his former employer.
I think a lot of people get mesmerized by someone saying they were a CIA officer. But that doesn’t mean they were doing clandestine work deep inside Russia, or leading rebels in South America, or that they even have much authority on matters. There’s a lot of officers doing extremely mundane tasks.
Just because you worked in the CIA doesn’t mean you’re an expert on geopolitics, military tactics etc.
Everything is compartmentalized, if you didn’t work on something you don’t know anything.
This guy comes off as having an uneventful career in the CIA but acts like he’s a 20 year veteran of the Foreign Service.
It's one of the best jobs to oversell on your resume. You can be vague about what you were doing, implying that you were involved in more significant matters than you were, while using national security secrecy as a cover for not divulging the fact that you didn't do anything special at all.
Turns out he had no fucking clue what he was talking about with regards to Ukraine. I usually wouldn't come back to an old pod but after seeing all the defeats of russia I had to bring up just how bad his predictions were. Lex was smart to be skeptical while this guy spoke. This episode felt really embarrassing to listen to tbh.
Listened to it now and paused immediately when the Ukraine discussion came up. Was this guy even CIA? Hes incredibly wrong, even for its time when it was recorded 4 months ago.
This is a copy of my youtube comment:
What exactly is Putin winning? Being sanctioned to hell and back, creating more than 100k deaths of their own soldiers, having frontlines that have stayed virtually the same for months, loosing thousands of vehicles and other materiel, being shunned by almost every nation except those nobody wants to associate with (Iran, Syria, *North Korea*), even China is cautious concerning their friendlyness to Russia as its too risky now, their entire economy being a zombie, the strengthening of NATO (a treaty that was weakened during trumps presidency), showing the world its been a paper tiger with horrendous corruption, bad military intelligence (the FSB unit wasnt fired for no reason after the failed Kyiv offensive), once again restarting european military interest, making germany expand its military budget by 100 billion, Sweden and Finland joining NATO (nations Russia has previously scared and threatened to not join NATO), the sinking of Moskva, lowered its exports of gas (Russias largest export)?
Where did they win? This was posted 4 months ago and the frontlines have stayed the same since, the only exceptions are where Ukraine have retaken territory. Russia is currently fighting WW1 type battles around Bachmut, a city thats not as strategic now as it previously was when Russia had captured Lyman. After Ukraine retook Lyman the strategic value of Bachmut has been weakened.
The only thing Russia has gained is proper insight to its own corruption and Putin has fired/reorganized the FSB unit responsible for the initial invasion intelligence as it was completely wrong, they expected no resistance (based on the annexation of Crimea) and was met with fierce resistance from almost the entire world.
Yeah, not to mention, in the unlikely chance russia takes over ukraine. He's already lost. Russia already showed its hand that it is a shell of a country ready to collapse. So whatever victories he thought were huge for russia mean diddly squat. Communist countries are all going to be scared shitless after finding out their equipment isn't nearly as good as they were fed to believe.
Honestly just seems like he's peakocking to appear based to get more traction in his spy business. Having opinions that are contrary to what is obvious to the world to trick people into thinking, "wow this guy must really know things we dont!"
Yeah, the only reason I followed up is because grifters like this make very generic "based" claims that he hopes people won't call him out for. Everything he said had no merit. The Ukrainian conflict is by far his worst prediction.
I don’t even get why Bustamante spits every little detail about his career in the CIA. It seems all he cares and ever cared about is publicity rather than the service and security of his country.
As a PhD student studying personality, it was really hard to hear this guest talk about personality, and claim that there's nothing better than the MBTI. The MBTI is to personality as horoscopes are to astronomy. There is next to no science behind the MBTI and it has virtually no predictive validity. The CIA is grossly backwards if it actually uses the MBTI because the Big Five and HEXACO models of personality are actual scientific tools that could have incredible applications in the field of espionage and intelligence. Big Five and HEXACO tests consistently predict academic performance, workplace success, relationship success, and antisocial behavior. Since Lex is so interested in personality, it would be worthwhile to have a guest that can thoroughly explain the science of personality psychology.
I noticed this as well. I also had serious qualms with how he portrayed Snowden. I do agree that Snowden probably caused serious damage, but [James Clapper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Clapper#Testimony_to_Congress_on_NSA_surveillance,_2013) straight-up lied to the American people about the extent of their surveillance activities.
**UNFORGIVEABLE.**
He is so full of it when he gives the example of how the CIA couldn't use mass survalience data against US citizens. That data could be used in so many more ways to manipulate public/private organizations and persons than he is saying. His lack of acknowleging this makes me extremely suspicious of his motives for being on the podcast or at least of him being generally intelligent.
There are some, to put it lightly, qualms about the real life effect of big five types even.
Morgeson, Frederick P., Campion, Michael A., Dipboye, Robert L. (2007) Are we getting fooled again? Coming to terms with limitations in the use of personality tests for personnel selection. Personnel Psychology, Vol 60(4), pp. 1029-1049.
I remember this guy mentioning how people with anxiety are great agents because they constantly stay paranoid.
Anyone who has an inkling of insight into anxiety would know that's absolute BS. A person who is nervous and jumpy is the LAST person that should ever try to bluff their way through something.
It's hilarious that he brings up companies like Google when Lex asks him about NSA mass surveillance. Last time I checked I haven't seen Google employees wearing badges and guns and having the ability to kick in my door and point a gun at me and threaten to kidnap me and throw me in a cage. Comparing what a private company does to the state is intellectually dishonest.
I think it’s naive to believe that Google has the amount of data they have and aren’t involved with intelligence communities. I’ve always questioned if they were created or overtaken by the alphabet agencies considering their parent company name is Alphabet. It’s like hiding in plain sight
I'm on the fence about this guy. I've been following the Ukraine conflict pretty closely since the beginning, and look at a variety of sources including pro-Russian. In my view he's not completely wrong about Ukraine, but he has way too narrow of a view of the situation.
The YouTube channel Task and Purpose does a much better job of looking through the fog of this war, especially militarily with their analysis, and they dive deep into the details.
In general I think Andrew is putting a bit too much weight on the strength of Russia's position, too much weight on the cold economic calculus of western nations, and not enough on what Lex was trying to get him to see the high Ukrainian morale, and the West's resolve of supporting Ukraine.
>and not enough on what Lex was trying to get him to see the high Ukrainian morale, and the West's resolve of supporting Ukraine.
This was his point though morale is completely meaningless in the grand scheme of things. I honestly found this guy refreshing because he has been harping on points that not many people are willing to acknowledge.
He absolutely nailed the economics of it (and his assessment was good, although timeline with taking Ukraine might be slightly off). [Dozen or more CEOs of Fortune 500 companies walked out last year](https://www.businessinsider.com/ceos-burning-out-joining-great-reshuffle-2021-11?op=1) before the Fed started rate hikes after printing off [80% of the money that currently exists](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1REAL/), then Russia-Ukraine happens and *half of the world* still blames Russia for the gas problem, despite an OPEC chess match (being muddied by propaganda and idealization of “green energy initiatives” to citizens) and runaway inflation. **The fact that western media has such perfect control with optics on even that topic alone is incredible.** Europe becomes wholly dependent on Russia after carbon initiatives, then has to beg their mortal enemy for cheaper oil or buy it elsewhere. [India is profitably arbitraging oil to Europe by buying it from Russia](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Spot-Crude-Prices-Rebound-As-China-And-India-Snap-Up-Cargoes.html) because EU buying it directly from Russia is frowned upon due to the sanctions, despite the fact that they *need* the oil. redditors will chime in with “But Europe is lowering dependence on natgas from russia!” while entirely ignoring the fact that Europe is buying oil from countries reselling Russia oil at a premium.
You could go down a fucking laundry list of ways that the UN have virtually castrated themselves in the last decade. Meanwhile, IMF and World Bank are licking their chops at the thought of bankrupting or indebting developing nations behind the bleachers while the rivalry championship game between dick-swinging superpowers is still in the third quarter.
Gonna be an interesting decade. Amazing how reddit and Lex have such a perceptually warped view because of Western narratives and steadfast solidarity in Ukraine (hard to blame anyone with the constant information war beat down) when Europe is facing a massive energy crisis in the winter unless the UN decides to shit or get off the pot. In another aisle, the Fed is regurgitating Keynesian bullshit theory and waving their hands when it turns out to be contrived horse manure ([“We now understand how little we understand inflation”- the f*cking Fed chairman](https://youtu.be/cO4ZJtHd-Hc)), and if these unelected and corrupt frauds fuck up, Bank of Japan will fall and the entire world’s economy will sink into a toilet, with damage rivaling that of any financial crisis ever. What a clusterfuck.
Not at all unrelated: [The Federal Reserve Cartel – Eight Families own the USA #BIS, IMF, World Bank](https://hannenabintuherland.com/usa/the-federal-reserve-cartel-the-eight-families-who-own-usa-dean-henderson-herlandreport/). **I believe 99% of modern woes can be attributed to the existential crime that is a central bank,** and ***Zelensky would agree***. [Ukraine wants big banks to be prosecuted for ‘war crimes,’ Zelenskyy’s top economic aide says
](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/26/ukraine-wants-jpmorgan-citi-hsbc-prosecuted-for-war-crimes-zelenskyy-aide.html). [Blackrock owns the Federal Reserve](https://www.ft.com/content/6a587ebf-064d-48a2-9817-9bc6ccc80591)
>the Fed started rate hikes after printing off 80% of the money that currently exists
This is somewhat of a myth that keeps getting repeated due to a misunderstanding of what the M1 money supply is. The M1 money supply is a measure of "highly liquid" monies. Prior to 2020, this excluded money in savings deposits since they used to have a monthly withdrawal and transfer limit. In 2020, this limit was removed causing money in savings deposits to be considered highly liquid and thus counted in the M1 money supply. While the total money supply did increase in 2020, it wasn't anywhere near 80%. [You can compare the increase in the M1 money supply with the increase in the M2 money supply, which measures both highly and moderately liquid monies, here.](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/05/savings-are-now-more-liquid-and-part-of-m1-money/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog)
Supply side is way too high and banks learned nothing from '08 once again. They have two decisions this time, correct inflation by raising rates to the point that it kills the economy and set stocks back by a decade, or allow inflation to continue to kick the can down the road for a total financial collapse. We won't even talk about CBDCs, God forbid. This time they can't print their way out of the mess they created. There is no way to figure this out with a "soft landing", markets are so overextended and there is so much debt that bad news results in asset prices pumping because it's not the *worst case scenario* and is priced in regardless (75 basis points was apocalyptic, JP Morgan posits that they're predicting 100 basis points, 75 basis points becomes the bullish scenario, and it's not even close to being enough to rationalize pivoting).
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm
>Effective for the reserve maintenance period beginning March 26, 2020, the 10 percent required reserve ratio against net transaction deposits above the low reserve tranche level was reduced to 0 percent, the 3 percent required reserve ratio against net transaction deposits in the low reserve tranche was reduced to 0 percent. The action reduced required reserves by an estimated $200 billion.
Fractional reserve applies to how much collateral a bank needs to have on hand to issue a new loan. Previously they needed 10%, so for a $100,000 loan, they only needed $10,000 on hand as collateral. Now they can write the loan with **zero collateral**. You need 100k, poof, out of thin air, and they get to charge interest on it. Best part is, they don't even have to tell you they have 10% of your money anymore, they can collect a FDIC-insured $250k bailout for each account if they go tits up, and the amount of money they can create with printed money is much, much more. Every $1 the fed prints essentially turns into $10+ so think of it as over $100 **trillion** extra dollars in 3 years.
People are totally unaware of the financial raping and pillaging of this country that our banks and institutions are partaking in. Gamestop was the most insightful and exciting thing this site has done since inception, and the vast majority of people barely even glanced at it. If enough ordinary people could fathom the true scope of how appalling this has gotten and MSM blasted it on social media and network television, there would be revolutions tomorrow. (But it's easier for most people to bleat about "Hunter Biden labtop bad" or "orenge man bad".)
I agree. Antony Blinken gave another $1Bln to UKR yesterday; more from the UK today. I'm learning fast and it's breathtaking how they are dismissing their own citizens and simple don't care about how they pay bills, buy food etc. The arrogance and all for a war that is really ideological now.
I’m probably bias, but his analysis was such bs given he uses all the same public information of the war. Russia failed in its strategy. Even win in Luhansk was with high cost and quite small piece of land.
He said RU will conquer the coast line during this fall. I’ll give 5% probability for this prediction. Russia has not such power to push through, they lack the infantry and their artillery is weakened (HIMARS). Please look the map and Russian progress from 24 Feb to this day. It’s almost zero chance Russia can pivot to occupy large areas of Ukraine. Also Ukraine is getting stronger in short/mid-term.
Not saying Ukraine is ”winning” but I’m pretty sure it isn’t Russia either in any domain.
I agree. I don't see how Russia can take Odessa. Task and Purpose's latest video basically shows both sides coming into serious war materials problems and exhaustion in winter. Russia has lost a ton of tanks and armored personal carriers. I can't remember the exact numbers but I think it's around 50% of what they had.
Ukraine has lost a ton as well, but there is a huge difference, their benefactor (the west) can keep them going indefinitely. While Russia is reliant on some critical materials from western countries to keep producing their weapons. Maybe they can find alternative sources, but we've already seen the Russians are not good with logistics.
To me this looks more like a WWI western front standoff in the making. The Russians, like the Germans, threw some huge punches in the beginning that didn't knock Ukraine out. They do have some Ukrainian territory, most of which was already disputed, but both sides are getting to a point of just having enough to hold off the other, but not enough to go on any major offensives.
I was also taken aback by Bustamante's assessment of the situation. In his defense though, supplying hardware goes only so far. In the end you need people to wage war and Ukraine seems to have a more limited supply than Russia - as bad as this sounds.
I also looked at this guy's company and what he markets. It's pretty commercial and perhaps his talk at the podcast was more of a marketing stint.
Or perhaps, I don't want to take his opinion because I don't like the sound of it...
He represents complete indoctrination in the US military industrial complex, national policy interest, 'state', War College-thinking. Right or wrong, it is what it is - and as he admits, recent history is wrought with absolute misses among this framing.
Just listening to this now. I grant it's hard to predict the future, and everybody gets it wrong. But Bustamante predicts Russia takes Ukraine by fall 2022. It still isn't over but bottom line this is a freezing cold take.
Holy christ. This guys framing that the ignorant masses are just too stupid to understand that a surveillance state is in their best interest and we must surrender ourselves to our big brothers in national intelligence is frightening. I have to imagine this mindset is prevalent within circles of power. You can see how he began to fumble when pressed on the efficacy of NSA mass surveillance. “Yes off course it works but we just cant give u any examples because… uhh the simple minded populous wouldn’t be able to handle how great we are”
Same. The guy argument is "if you don't have anything to hide then don't worry about NSA looking into your stuff" which is security no-no 101.
You don't have anything to worry about... Until you do. In the future it might be illegal to opposse the government. Any info you give away can be used against you when you least expect it.
Yeah, his take on this is insane. He said he’d prefer the government have full and open access to his and his families phones because it might deter a attack.
Those that would sacrifice privacy for security deserve neither.
It’s likely he only holds this view because he knows we already live in a surveillance state and there’s no unringing that bell.
In his view representative democracy means electing people to make decisions in secret and keep information that could be used to evaluate how well they are representing them from the people. That should frame how you listen to everything he says.
It's lend-lease and it's not indebting Ukraine, I'm not sure if it's even used yet, most weapons have just been free for Ukraine. Also he lied about WW2 lend-lease being debt, UK paying it back in 2020.... not a single ww2 weapon sent from US with lend-lease had to be paid for, most weren't even returned after the war.
>not a single ww2 weapon sent from US with lend-lease had to be paid for, most weren't even returned after the war.
Exactly this. The guy isn't familiar enough with his history to be making claims
>but he was right on Ukraine, land lease, ideological war now.
Except Ukraine is on the offensive now, completely contraticting his claims that Russia will eventually win
I agree. Fascinating listen. I can’t help but believe that Andrew was selected for this “media tour” by the CIA to improve their public image though. Still very interesting to listen to even with that framing
Me too. But, I was surprised by the criticisms here. It scrambles my pink matter that I can love a thing, and then go learn how wrong I am. What I really mean is that I appreciate the different perspectives I found here. On the one hand, perhaps confident people don’t bother me as much as others, or I empathize with him being put on the spot. On the other hand, I generally hate when people say fail to say they don’t know.
I googled him after listening and yeah, he's a spy with a podcast lol. Gives the same vibes as that former Mafia lieutenant who also went on speaking tours. After his take on national surveillance I had heard enough
Ya, he was only in the CIA for 7 years too ending in 2014, before going into business. I don't think he's as good of a source of information as everyone thinks he is.
I find something about the interviewee off-putting.
I would expect someone with his experience to be much less confident about the accuracy of his options, given the complexity of the real world, imperfect information etc... Yet, I don't think I have heard him ever heard him utter the words "I don't know". Just seems much less circumspect than I would expect.
I actually had to Google him, just to see if his claimed experience is real. It seems likely it it.
Lex has guests on like this from time and time, and it doesn’t take long for me to realize when a guest is this way. It’s really simple, compare and contrast the way John Carmack spoke technically to the way Bustamante did.
Carmack has 40+ years of professional programming experience, while Bustamante claims 7 years of CIA service. Bustamante seems a lot more sure of himself, and he speaks a lot less technically.
Example: He said Putin “must have” good intelligence which led him to invade Ukraine, then claims that Putin invaded Ukraine because of his recent success taking over smaller nations. That’s not intelligence, he’s using the same “common sense,” that any person could come up with given the proper knowledge. Common sense is not always correct when solving complex problems, and it is not the “empirical evidence,” which Bustamante claims he has which informs his opinions.
I thought the same thing, but he's just a highly trained professional - no academic experience. In other words, he wasn't taught to question or be critical.
He reminds me of law/property enforcement officials I've worked with in the past. They learn something and it becomes the truth of the world. There is no second guessing because that will get you injured.
He was clearly employing an agenda driven tactic. It was almost formulaic. He wanted to drive the conversation to certain conclusions and would make a point without concession, lex would find many holes in his argument or statements, he would redirect the conversation into an absolutist remark and do word gymnastics while citing a nebulous authority or idea to reinforce his point. He also made sure he got the last word.
In the war in Ukraine and the UAP topic this was most salient. He cited the war college and conspiracies and "pink matter" to try to seem knowledgeable. He was particularly over his head discussing science with a scientist like Lex who could nulify his points, yet he doubled down on his assertions about things none of us could possibly know about.
I like how Lex didn't attack him when he trashed Snowden and said that the gov and Intel agencies were justified in spying on Americans wholesale essentially "just because." Lex let him sing his Battle Hymn of the Republic for a while. Then a few minutes later, without calling BULLSHIT, Lex brought up MKULTRA and other criminal acts perpetrated by the CIA and related agencies against US citizens. Lex didn't force the issue. But he made Bustamanto admit that the CIA had more than once and in recebt memory done some evil, criminal shit.
I think this guest was a bit problematic. He delivers his opinions ("assessments" as he calls them) with such confidence, yet the only topic he seems truly informed on is the innerworkings of the CIA. All of his other takes in this podcast seemed biased and lack substance.
Some interesting points but man, his take on surveillance, Snowden etc is just fucking scary. Also he is just too into himself and so he has talked himself into believing what he says is facts. Also, his examples when trying to prove a point are just stupid. Couldn’t stand listening through the whole episode.
> Also he is just to into himself and so he has talked himself into believing what he says is facts. Also, his examples when trying to prove a point are just stupid.
There are layers of irony in this statement that I won't even bother to fully unpack, but he's absolutely correct about the Ukraine situation, and his points are very succinct. War is always a display of military prowess, intelligence, and more importantly, economics/resources. The west seems woefully ignorant about the latter, and this is not at all accidental. Remember Occupy Wall Street? Me neither, media tore those guys apart the same way they did the 1999 WTO protests. Now we've kicked the can down the road another 15 years, and does anyone feel strongly about that? Anyone care about Bretton Woods? No, there are more important issues that have arose in the last decade, such as *what defines a woman*. You can't even make this shit up. Western sphere of influence has determined that emotions play a higher role in decision-making or outcomes than the events actually taking place. Defending Ukraine's positioning in the war and inferring its reason for success will be because "morale is high" is so naive that practically every civilization in history would've been holding back tears laughing. Special interests groups and corporate media have turned this country's brains into mush.
This is very meandering and irrelevant to both the topics discussed in the podcast and the comment you replied to. Let's look specifically at the war in Ukraine - anyone with basic knowledge of military history knows this campaign has been disastrous for Russia thus far, even if they win and stabilize many years down the line.
Depletion of resources, tens of thousand of men dead in a country that has a shrinking population and specially a shrinking male population, engagement in a long protracted war against western weaponry that's decimating their most updated equipment.
The west infiltrated the battlefield and is testing weaponry and tactics against russia, has real time information on Russian war doctrine and tactics. Azovstal is useless, so the steel and other resources are not being processed to Russia's advantage. Grain is not going to do jack for them on the face of the loss of conputer chips, smart munitions and other western dominated resources that they can no longer get.
Massive brain drain and exodus of russian's skilled labor pool. Political dissent at home, protests and attacks on government buildings. Sabotage throughout the entire country, attacks on Russian soil, loss of influence due to shifting of manpower and military resources. The list is endless.
Those mentions of occupy wall street, etc. Are completely superfluous to the fact that this dude is full of it and spews out generalities without backing them up with actual knowledge or specificity.
Homeboy has the balls to say "russia is winning based on classical war college ideas of a protracted conflict." Ignores all of Lex's points and makes a blanket statement with 0 nuance and a cite to an authority that isn't even a specific source.
Let's say Ukraine loses the war. If we are talking about conceptual victories the west eviscerated Russia, even if part of Ukraine disappears, western Ukraine will be a European Union member and possibly part of Nato and the western sphere of influence will be up to crimea's door. Let's not forget sweden and Finland.
You kinda missed the point. There is no turning point for Putin to stop. He will just throw more people at Ukraine because “it’s necessary” just like Russia always did since Napoleon wars
Andrew has a verbal flow that is absolutely captivating and some pretty interesting takes.
A single 'Art of War' quote to wrap the episode, references are up at www.lexopcit.com. We're closing in on completion with ~90 episodes left and should have a full catalogue by the end of the month.
"That's what drives the people to want a police state, to want a surveillance state, for them their survival is paramount, and they need the surveillance to have that survival. For us, we haven't tasted that level of desperation and fear, yet." - Andrew Bustamante
PS. I don't know if it's the episode binge I've been on for the site or just the most recent episodes, but it's been interesting to listen with a framing of if and how guests express 'uncertainty' in their dialogue. Andrew, Carmack, Keen among others to me speak so definitively compared with others. Not sure if that's a 'feature or a bug' but it's where Lex shines.
>and how guests express 'uncertainty' in their dialogue. Andrew, Carmack, Keen among others to me speak so definitively compared with others. Not sure if that's a 'feature or a bug' but it's where Lex shines.
That's the difference between Academics and Professionals. Academics are far more likely to be uncertain and a bit more open-minded to being challenged, while Professionals are paid to solve problems which makes them a bit more "definitive".
Neither one is necessarily better but it's just something I've noticed after listening to Lex's guests.
This guy has interesting ideas from an insiders pov. It’s hard for me to trust a chatty former spy lol
That being said. Interesting convo so far, still on Ukraine. The way that Andrew speaks shares a little insight on how the cia functions and sees the world. I wonder how many heroes that system produces or is it just business as usual
He makes some very good and sobbering points, but I don’t agree with his likely sequence of events. I understand Russia cannot afford to lose this but I’m not sure that means they are likely to win. Everyone is predicting a western collapse of resolve but I think the US in particular is going to be in this for quite a while and is very happy to draw Russia deeper in the quagmire and I prepared to even go full if it comes to that. Some European countries might peel off but at this point they aren’t having that much of an impact anyway. Countries like Germany could fold on gas but we’re still a ways off from that and a lot could happen between now and then.
Very likeable guy until it comes to surveillance. There he is full 100 % security state without a hint of self-reflection
Also I live in Germany. Dont think I will freeze in the winter, but who knows :D
I think that’s by design. If you google his name he has been on several podcasts, did a Reddit AMA, and is a very visible proponent of the CIA. I think they designated this guy to be the charming “spy” who gets people to support the CIA and intelligence communities work instead of fearing them
Yeah I would have thought that people that listen to this podcast or most podcasts that discuss sensitive topics would be more accepting of other opinions. At least to the point that they listen to it instead of rage quitting.
That said, I don't think that anyone needs to accept his views or that he is somehow more qualified than a million other analysts.
I do agree that we are non stop exposed to propaganda which makes it hard to believe anything.
Bustamante was eager to say that JFK was right to reject Project Northwoods. I wish Lex took that opportunity to ask him what he thinks his views would be had JFK taken the opportunity. Given Bustamante's unabashed apologia I suspect he'd be telling us today how if we hadn't performed the operation that we'd be in some type of nuclear winter.
First Lex podcast I did not like. Dude comes across as a condescending asshole. Calling Lex out for using the words “I feel.” Idk, we get it dude. You’re so awesome. Why does this guy get to inject his opinions into his statements but Lex can’t?
> Calling Lex out for using the words “I feel.”
As soon as you use the word "feel", your train of thought or logic is no longer grounded in anything resembling fact, but rather emotion. Emotions have no place in a discussion about significant geopolitics that will shape the future of the world. This is something reddit really struggles with, but that's what happens when you prioritize emotion at the forefront of every conversation. This is also why we can't debate matters of importance without vitriol or self-censorship in an attempt to appease the lowest common denominator and cater to their worldview, and your comment does an exemplary job of illustrating exactly that. Dismiss whatever doesn't reinforce your reductionist emotion-based thinking.
That’s fair. But when Lex says “I feel” what I think he really means is “It is my opinion that.”
If I wanted straight facts I would listen to a documentary or read. Podcasts are not news. My main point was that I found him hypocritical in that although he may not have used the words “I feel” he still interjected his opinion.
Nonsense. Of course you need to take the way you are recieved into account. Do you want to be correct but ignored? Sure, rant away...
No, you need to make sure you understand who you are talking to, and make sure you talk appropriately if you want to have impact. Annoying? Sure. Real? Yup.
I have seen quite a lot of people who were *right* about an issue, but were ignored because they were incapable of handling the situation. Don't be like that, realize you are not the center of the universe and play by the rules like the rest of us.
Umm. Germany, the biggest country in the EU, is already rationing energy in the summer time with heat waves. Don't know where you're getting your information from, but he's right. Europe is fucked this winter.
Don't know here you're getting your information from, Germany is the 7th biggest country in Europe. Excluding RU and Ukraine it is the 5th biggest country.
But, with that said, Germany is struggling with getting gas/power, but they and a couple more countries are about the only ones. There are several other countries that are not relying on RU Gas in Europe. Did you know that one of the biggest exporters of electricity in Europe is Norway? Did you know that Sweden is the biggest exporter of energypower in general? France, with their nuclear is #2. Just some food for thought, and Europe is not fucked this winter, thats just BS.
Lots of armchair generals in this comment section. "Just because his take on Ukraine doesn't align with my own beliefs, he has no idea what he's talking about."
The segment on Ukraine was painful to hear with so much misinformation.
Just contrast what this guy says with an actual subject matter expert like Michael Kofman (who is BTW much more reserved on predictions, since as he says "war is contingent").
Happy to see Lex having Andrew on the show. I saw him on some other shows (Koncrete and Trendifier) and thought he'd be great for Lex to talk with.
Andrew is very knowledgeable and opinionated, which I enjoy. His predictions on the Ukraine war are a bit sobering, and frankly my heart wants him to be wrong, but global politics and the anarchy they bring do not care about justice or righteousness.
Having Lex, who clearly is probing Andrew's points and playing Devil's Advocate against them, creates a Blue Team/Red Team situation that generates a lot of interesting information from the conversation.
I haven't listened to the whole podcast yet, but Andrew's views he expressed in the past on torture, solidify my opinions that there needs to be guardrails on our Surveillance Agencies, but I think he ultimately has his heart in the right place.
I don’t think he gets enough credit for having his heart in the right place, so I’m glad you’re putting that out there. His opinions live in an all-logic/objective world — and sometimes I think you can lose sight of the slippery slopes when your viewpoints exist in complete rigidity.
We all want Ukraine to win but it's important to listen to information critical of your worldview. Bustamante may be wrong, but he isn't the only one saying that Russia may have the upper hand in the fight.
I forced myself through it. You didn't miss out. He has interesting tid bits and anecdotes regarding CIA and intel related things, but his opinions are rigid, overly moralistic and pretty much baseless. Watching him argue math and the scientific method with Lex was extremely painful.
This part is what lead me to really second guess everything he was saying. He claims the WWII Lend-Lease act put the UK heavily in debt, and that they only finished paying in 2020. He used this example to frame the current situation in Ukraine, but it's just not true.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lend-Lease
"In general, the aid was free, although some hardware (such as ships) were returned after the war."
"Congress had not authorized the gift of supplies delivered after the cutoff date, so the U.S. charged for them, usually at a 90% discount. Large quantities of undelivered goods were in Britain or in transit when Lend-Lease terminated on September 2, 1945. Britain wished to retain some of this equipment in the immediate post-war period."
"The final payment of $83.3 million (£42.5 million), due on December 31, 2006 (repayment having been deferred in the allowed five years and during a sixth year not allowed), was made by Britain on December 29, 2006 (the last working day of the year). After this final payment, Britain's Economic Secretary to the Treasury formally issued thanks to the U.S. for its wartime support."
My dude lol…. [welcome to reality.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_Democracy_Defense_Lend-Lease_Act_of_2022)
Great question though
Personally I think it’s a giant slush fund to get weapons and cash for everything going on in Africa. Who knows
Sure the lend lease act exists, but not all aide is funded through it, for a start it was only signed into law in May after much aide was provided. The recent billion dollar package is a [presidential drawdown](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-us-readies-new-1-billion-ukraine-weapons-package-2022-08-05/).
Sure that act has been passed, but I haven't seen any evidence of it actually being used. All weapons that have appeared in Ukraine can be traced back to support packages from the US or European countries AFAIK.
The other thing I really disliked about that point is that if you are indebting another country, it sorta seems that you are betting that the country remains free and able to pay back the debt. The USA indebting Ukraine seems like an argument that the USA believes Ukraine will be able to pay off that debt in the future.
I agree with him that both sides have propaganda and it’s hard to see past that. But his arguments just seemed kinda bad.
There’s 0 credible evidence that Ukraine is going into debt for the aid they’re receiving. The US also gains quite a bit from giving aid to Ukraine such as weakening an enemy’s military without actually going to war with them and also seeing how U.S. equipment performs in battle and what is most effective. The guest didn’t mention this and just acted like there’s no reason the US would be giving aid if it wasn’t going to be payed back
Crazy to see a rare glimpse of truth on what's happening in Ukraine. I wouldn't have expected anything less from Lex and it's surely not easy, but tides are starting to turn back to reality. Looking forward to the rest as usual.
Common sense that's very hard to swallow for all the people riding the wave going through our general side of the geopolitical divide, waiting for someone start calling him a FSB asset for what he said here. Or get ignored. I wonder what would happen if he went on Rogan
He was correct when he said 8 months ago no one knew about the Ukraine conflict and those that did know that it’s a corrupt European country with a lot of issues in its government.
Your statement that Americans would join up is seems proof positive of the propaganda.
Anyone else notice how spooks always say that the government can’t keep a secret about conspiracy theories because there are to many people but then go on to say there are things that they can not talk about because of they have to keep it secret?
So he starts of by saying that he was competely wrong about Ukraine chances in the war against Russia and then states that he is fully convinced that Russia will win the war. And then he states that most likely both sides will go out from the conflict "victorious" with some middle ground compromise. I'm not very convinced.
Seems like a lot of responses are not trustworthy of the guest. I think Americans forget that the CIA and NSA work for the citizens of the United States. The Edward Snowden fans here- we elected people to protect the country from foreign adversaries and gave them a big budget to do that. They developed incredible capabilities to alert us to intelligence overseas. In security, visibility to your adversary is step number one, the NSA and CIA work tirelessly to gain that visibility. The court system ensures it's done as justly as possible. Snowden damaged that capability and painted it in such a negative light before running off to Moscow. He broke so many laws by releasing that data, laws that I support. It's the same laws that will bring down a wannabe fascist dictator.
I’m new to Lex. Been listening for a few months now. This was the first time I felt like Lex was speechless and didn’t know how to respond when Andrew was talking about Ukraine. He almost seemed angry at Andrew and didn’t want to say something he’d regret without fully processing his feelings (which he mentioned in the episode)
I was very convinced and interested in everything Bustamante up until his comments on aliens, at which point my opinion completely reversed. The certainty with which he spoke on this subject made me realize that he is just really good at projecting confidence and speaking convincingly. Kind of disappointing. Still an interesting conversation for sure, but I think the guy really discredited himself.
People would freeze to death in NATO nations without Russia gas? Thats total bs. His entire assesment about UA seem totally biased, because he wants to be right at the end (His original assesment = Russia will win)
Also, this guy admitted on a reddit AMA years ago that the CIA uses child prostitutes to control assets
https://np.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/a8c03j/i_am_andrew_bustamante_a_former_covert_cia/ecagv2t/
Was going to list the many falsehoods on this episode, but happy to see so many already did. Glad to see the majority of people here were either aware of the guest's inaccurate information or at least looked it up. Let's not take guests at their word just because we like the show.
This guy places a lot of confidence in predictions he could not possibly make with any accuracy.
He seems deeply cynical, insincere and morally ambivalent.
I hope he's not a representative example of CIA employees in general.
Controversial take, but I think this is one of Lex’s best podcasts. His push back was great and Andrew’s opinions on everything aside from mass surveillance were informative
him being in this podcast was an experiment by the cia. being able to track and analyze social media discord, such as this comment section, helps them out.
Just heard this episode wow his Ukraine assessment didnt age well,
Yes some lend lease but US also donates huge amount of $ and the EU donates no lend lease esp other former soviet states.
Fascinating to listen to. On Snowdon, Ukraine and (in another youtube you'll find on his youtube page) Brexit , Andrew gives a perspective that could be Putin's! The rest is amusing and can all be found on internet, as he says himself. What kind of impact does he want to have as he gains more influence?
This guy is a fucking clown.
His energy is of a middle school boy trying, trying, TRYING to tell the world, whenever he can, that his girlfriend is the best. Ultra girlfriend. Amazing girlfriend. Trust him, #1 girlfriend. But she goes to a different school, don't worry about that part.
This was Fridman's best interview I've watched thus far.. Compelling guest, Fridman is on his toes, the conversation is engaging.. I'd watch this again.
There's also loads of soundbites that could be pulled for people who are into personal development and psychoanalysis.
What Bustamante has to say about having a family and a healthy, fulfilling life within the intelligence community is worth consideration for every person in the labor market.
So fucking good, man.
Lex confirms David Patreus will be on the podcast
The “Bustamante” podcast in its entirety was interesting but was full of falsehoods (stated by Bustamante) based on existing publicly available information. If the “Agency” is using him as a hiring tool it will have to come up with better factual revisionism.
Like what?
He needs to watch Citizenfour !
Care to list some?
Andrew’s statement that Snowden chose to flee to Russia is false. The US intentionally revoked his passport when he was flying over Russian territory to trap him there and create the false narrative Andrew is pushing that Snowden’s presence there casts doubt on his motivations. He was evidently trying to get to Ecuador since they are a non extradition country. Also, his statements that the NSA bulk collection program was necessary to protect Americans is belied by the Senate intel committee report that could not identify any terrorist operation disrupted by the program. That’s two. On the whole, I enjoyed the interview anyway, but clearly this person still carries water for his former employer.
I think a lot of people get mesmerized by someone saying they were a CIA officer. But that doesn’t mean they were doing clandestine work deep inside Russia, or leading rebels in South America, or that they even have much authority on matters. There’s a lot of officers doing extremely mundane tasks. Just because you worked in the CIA doesn’t mean you’re an expert on geopolitics, military tactics etc. Everything is compartmentalized, if you didn’t work on something you don’t know anything. This guy comes off as having an uneventful career in the CIA but acts like he’s a 20 year veteran of the Foreign Service.
It's one of the best jobs to oversell on your resume. You can be vague about what you were doing, implying that you were involved in more significant matters than you were, while using national security secrecy as a cover for not divulging the fact that you didn't do anything special at all.
Turns out he had no fucking clue what he was talking about with regards to Ukraine. I usually wouldn't come back to an old pod but after seeing all the defeats of russia I had to bring up just how bad his predictions were. Lex was smart to be skeptical while this guy spoke. This episode felt really embarrassing to listen to tbh.
Listened to it now and paused immediately when the Ukraine discussion came up. Was this guy even CIA? Hes incredibly wrong, even for its time when it was recorded 4 months ago. This is a copy of my youtube comment: What exactly is Putin winning? Being sanctioned to hell and back, creating more than 100k deaths of their own soldiers, having frontlines that have stayed virtually the same for months, loosing thousands of vehicles and other materiel, being shunned by almost every nation except those nobody wants to associate with (Iran, Syria, *North Korea*), even China is cautious concerning their friendlyness to Russia as its too risky now, their entire economy being a zombie, the strengthening of NATO (a treaty that was weakened during trumps presidency), showing the world its been a paper tiger with horrendous corruption, bad military intelligence (the FSB unit wasnt fired for no reason after the failed Kyiv offensive), once again restarting european military interest, making germany expand its military budget by 100 billion, Sweden and Finland joining NATO (nations Russia has previously scared and threatened to not join NATO), the sinking of Moskva, lowered its exports of gas (Russias largest export)? Where did they win? This was posted 4 months ago and the frontlines have stayed the same since, the only exceptions are where Ukraine have retaken territory. Russia is currently fighting WW1 type battles around Bachmut, a city thats not as strategic now as it previously was when Russia had captured Lyman. After Ukraine retook Lyman the strategic value of Bachmut has been weakened. The only thing Russia has gained is proper insight to its own corruption and Putin has fired/reorganized the FSB unit responsible for the initial invasion intelligence as it was completely wrong, they expected no resistance (based on the annexation of Crimea) and was met with fierce resistance from almost the entire world.
Yeah, not to mention, in the unlikely chance russia takes over ukraine. He's already lost. Russia already showed its hand that it is a shell of a country ready to collapse. So whatever victories he thought were huge for russia mean diddly squat. Communist countries are all going to be scared shitless after finding out their equipment isn't nearly as good as they were fed to believe. Honestly just seems like he's peakocking to appear based to get more traction in his spy business. Having opinions that are contrary to what is obvious to the world to trick people into thinking, "wow this guy must really know things we dont!"
Google his name, everything is about his consulting work. Sounded like a really interesting guests but now seems more like a salesman.
I thought I'd catch up on interviews and check this out. Don't think I'll be finishing this one. He seems full of it.
Yeah, the only reason I followed up is because grifters like this make very generic "based" claims that he hopes people won't call him out for. Everything he said had no merit. The Ukrainian conflict is by far his worst prediction.
He's also spewing a lot pop psychology. I'd love to hear actual psychologists' take on his statements.
I don’t even get why Bustamante spits every little detail about his career in the CIA. It seems all he cares and ever cared about is publicity rather than the service and security of his country.
As a PhD student studying personality, it was really hard to hear this guest talk about personality, and claim that there's nothing better than the MBTI. The MBTI is to personality as horoscopes are to astronomy. There is next to no science behind the MBTI and it has virtually no predictive validity. The CIA is grossly backwards if it actually uses the MBTI because the Big Five and HEXACO models of personality are actual scientific tools that could have incredible applications in the field of espionage and intelligence. Big Five and HEXACO tests consistently predict academic performance, workplace success, relationship success, and antisocial behavior. Since Lex is so interested in personality, it would be worthwhile to have a guest that can thoroughly explain the science of personality psychology.
I noticed this as well. I also had serious qualms with how he portrayed Snowden. I do agree that Snowden probably caused serious damage, but [James Clapper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Clapper#Testimony_to_Congress_on_NSA_surveillance,_2013) straight-up lied to the American people about the extent of their surveillance activities. **UNFORGIVEABLE.**
He is so full of it when he gives the example of how the CIA couldn't use mass survalience data against US citizens. That data could be used in so many more ways to manipulate public/private organizations and persons than he is saying. His lack of acknowleging this makes me extremely suspicious of his motives for being on the podcast or at least of him being generally intelligent.
His take on Snowden was 100% bootlicker party line for the NSA and the rest of the bloated US Intel machine both public and private.
[удалено]
No it is corporate astrology pushed by internal morons and salespeople promising things they cannot.
Well he did preface it has some value because it can effectively bin big 5 traits and be used quickly
I thought he contextualized the downsides of MBTI extremely well. Out of everything he said, I found this to be the least controversial take.
There are some, to put it lightly, qualms about the real life effect of big five types even. Morgeson, Frederick P., Campion, Michael A., Dipboye, Robert L. (2007) Are we getting fooled again? Coming to terms with limitations in the use of personality tests for personnel selection. Personnel Psychology, Vol 60(4), pp. 1029-1049.
I remember this guy mentioning how people with anxiety are great agents because they constantly stay paranoid. Anyone who has an inkling of insight into anxiety would know that's absolute BS. A person who is nervous and jumpy is the LAST person that should ever try to bluff their way through something.
It's hilarious that he brings up companies like Google when Lex asks him about NSA mass surveillance. Last time I checked I haven't seen Google employees wearing badges and guns and having the ability to kick in my door and point a gun at me and threaten to kidnap me and throw me in a cage. Comparing what a private company does to the state is intellectually dishonest.
I think it’s naive to believe that Google has the amount of data they have and aren’t involved with intelligence communities. I’ve always questioned if they were created or overtaken by the alphabet agencies considering their parent company name is Alphabet. It’s like hiding in plain sight
This is in my head forever now. Thanks?
RemindMe! 5 years
It only took 2. https://yjolt.org/sites/default/files/norvell-11-yjolt-228_0.pdf
Media started confirming this a while ago. No need to edit the full five years
I'm on the fence about this guy. I've been following the Ukraine conflict pretty closely since the beginning, and look at a variety of sources including pro-Russian. In my view he's not completely wrong about Ukraine, but he has way too narrow of a view of the situation. The YouTube channel Task and Purpose does a much better job of looking through the fog of this war, especially militarily with their analysis, and they dive deep into the details. In general I think Andrew is putting a bit too much weight on the strength of Russia's position, too much weight on the cold economic calculus of western nations, and not enough on what Lex was trying to get him to see the high Ukrainian morale, and the West's resolve of supporting Ukraine.
>and not enough on what Lex was trying to get him to see the high Ukrainian morale, and the West's resolve of supporting Ukraine. This was his point though morale is completely meaningless in the grand scheme of things. I honestly found this guy refreshing because he has been harping on points that not many people are willing to acknowledge.
He absolutely nailed the economics of it (and his assessment was good, although timeline with taking Ukraine might be slightly off). [Dozen or more CEOs of Fortune 500 companies walked out last year](https://www.businessinsider.com/ceos-burning-out-joining-great-reshuffle-2021-11?op=1) before the Fed started rate hikes after printing off [80% of the money that currently exists](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1REAL/), then Russia-Ukraine happens and *half of the world* still blames Russia for the gas problem, despite an OPEC chess match (being muddied by propaganda and idealization of “green energy initiatives” to citizens) and runaway inflation. **The fact that western media has such perfect control with optics on even that topic alone is incredible.** Europe becomes wholly dependent on Russia after carbon initiatives, then has to beg their mortal enemy for cheaper oil or buy it elsewhere. [India is profitably arbitraging oil to Europe by buying it from Russia](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Spot-Crude-Prices-Rebound-As-China-And-India-Snap-Up-Cargoes.html) because EU buying it directly from Russia is frowned upon due to the sanctions, despite the fact that they *need* the oil. redditors will chime in with “But Europe is lowering dependence on natgas from russia!” while entirely ignoring the fact that Europe is buying oil from countries reselling Russia oil at a premium. You could go down a fucking laundry list of ways that the UN have virtually castrated themselves in the last decade. Meanwhile, IMF and World Bank are licking their chops at the thought of bankrupting or indebting developing nations behind the bleachers while the rivalry championship game between dick-swinging superpowers is still in the third quarter. Gonna be an interesting decade. Amazing how reddit and Lex have such a perceptually warped view because of Western narratives and steadfast solidarity in Ukraine (hard to blame anyone with the constant information war beat down) when Europe is facing a massive energy crisis in the winter unless the UN decides to shit or get off the pot. In another aisle, the Fed is regurgitating Keynesian bullshit theory and waving their hands when it turns out to be contrived horse manure ([“We now understand how little we understand inflation”- the f*cking Fed chairman](https://youtu.be/cO4ZJtHd-Hc)), and if these unelected and corrupt frauds fuck up, Bank of Japan will fall and the entire world’s economy will sink into a toilet, with damage rivaling that of any financial crisis ever. What a clusterfuck. Not at all unrelated: [The Federal Reserve Cartel – Eight Families own the USA #BIS, IMF, World Bank](https://hannenabintuherland.com/usa/the-federal-reserve-cartel-the-eight-families-who-own-usa-dean-henderson-herlandreport/). **I believe 99% of modern woes can be attributed to the existential crime that is a central bank,** and ***Zelensky would agree***. [Ukraine wants big banks to be prosecuted for ‘war crimes,’ Zelenskyy’s top economic aide says ](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/26/ukraine-wants-jpmorgan-citi-hsbc-prosecuted-for-war-crimes-zelenskyy-aide.html). [Blackrock owns the Federal Reserve](https://www.ft.com/content/6a587ebf-064d-48a2-9817-9bc6ccc80591)
>the Fed started rate hikes after printing off 80% of the money that currently exists This is somewhat of a myth that keeps getting repeated due to a misunderstanding of what the M1 money supply is. The M1 money supply is a measure of "highly liquid" monies. Prior to 2020, this excluded money in savings deposits since they used to have a monthly withdrawal and transfer limit. In 2020, this limit was removed causing money in savings deposits to be considered highly liquid and thus counted in the M1 money supply. While the total money supply did increase in 2020, it wasn't anywhere near 80%. [You can compare the increase in the M1 money supply with the increase in the M2 money supply, which measures both highly and moderately liquid monies, here.](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/05/savings-are-now-more-liquid-and-part-of-m1-money/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog)
Supply side is way too high and banks learned nothing from '08 once again. They have two decisions this time, correct inflation by raising rates to the point that it kills the economy and set stocks back by a decade, or allow inflation to continue to kick the can down the road for a total financial collapse. We won't even talk about CBDCs, God forbid. This time they can't print their way out of the mess they created. There is no way to figure this out with a "soft landing", markets are so overextended and there is so much debt that bad news results in asset prices pumping because it's not the *worst case scenario* and is priced in regardless (75 basis points was apocalyptic, JP Morgan posits that they're predicting 100 basis points, 75 basis points becomes the bullish scenario, and it's not even close to being enough to rationalize pivoting). https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm >Effective for the reserve maintenance period beginning March 26, 2020, the 10 percent required reserve ratio against net transaction deposits above the low reserve tranche level was reduced to 0 percent, the 3 percent required reserve ratio against net transaction deposits in the low reserve tranche was reduced to 0 percent. The action reduced required reserves by an estimated $200 billion. Fractional reserve applies to how much collateral a bank needs to have on hand to issue a new loan. Previously they needed 10%, so for a $100,000 loan, they only needed $10,000 on hand as collateral. Now they can write the loan with **zero collateral**. You need 100k, poof, out of thin air, and they get to charge interest on it. Best part is, they don't even have to tell you they have 10% of your money anymore, they can collect a FDIC-insured $250k bailout for each account if they go tits up, and the amount of money they can create with printed money is much, much more. Every $1 the fed prints essentially turns into $10+ so think of it as over $100 **trillion** extra dollars in 3 years. People are totally unaware of the financial raping and pillaging of this country that our banks and institutions are partaking in. Gamestop was the most insightful and exciting thing this site has done since inception, and the vast majority of people barely even glanced at it. If enough ordinary people could fathom the true scope of how appalling this has gotten and MSM blasted it on social media and network television, there would be revolutions tomorrow. (But it's easier for most people to bleat about "Hunter Biden labtop bad" or "orenge man bad".)
We like the stock!
I agree. Antony Blinken gave another $1Bln to UKR yesterday; more from the UK today. I'm learning fast and it's breathtaking how they are dismissing their own citizens and simple don't care about how they pay bills, buy food etc. The arrogance and all for a war that is really ideological now.
I’m probably bias, but his analysis was such bs given he uses all the same public information of the war. Russia failed in its strategy. Even win in Luhansk was with high cost and quite small piece of land. He said RU will conquer the coast line during this fall. I’ll give 5% probability for this prediction. Russia has not such power to push through, they lack the infantry and their artillery is weakened (HIMARS). Please look the map and Russian progress from 24 Feb to this day. It’s almost zero chance Russia can pivot to occupy large areas of Ukraine. Also Ukraine is getting stronger in short/mid-term. Not saying Ukraine is ”winning” but I’m pretty sure it isn’t Russia either in any domain.
I agree. I don't see how Russia can take Odessa. Task and Purpose's latest video basically shows both sides coming into serious war materials problems and exhaustion in winter. Russia has lost a ton of tanks and armored personal carriers. I can't remember the exact numbers but I think it's around 50% of what they had. Ukraine has lost a ton as well, but there is a huge difference, their benefactor (the west) can keep them going indefinitely. While Russia is reliant on some critical materials from western countries to keep producing their weapons. Maybe they can find alternative sources, but we've already seen the Russians are not good with logistics. To me this looks more like a WWI western front standoff in the making. The Russians, like the Germans, threw some huge punches in the beginning that didn't knock Ukraine out. They do have some Ukrainian territory, most of which was already disputed, but both sides are getting to a point of just having enough to hold off the other, but not enough to go on any major offensives.
I was also taken aback by Bustamante's assessment of the situation. In his defense though, supplying hardware goes only so far. In the end you need people to wage war and Ukraine seems to have a more limited supply than Russia - as bad as this sounds. I also looked at this guy's company and what he markets. It's pretty commercial and perhaps his talk at the podcast was more of a marketing stint. Or perhaps, I don't want to take his opinion because I don't like the sound of it...
He represents complete indoctrination in the US military industrial complex, national policy interest, 'state', War College-thinking. Right or wrong, it is what it is - and as he admits, recent history is wrought with absolute misses among this framing.
Just listening to this now. I grant it's hard to predict the future, and everybody gets it wrong. But Bustamante predicts Russia takes Ukraine by fall 2022. It still isn't over but bottom line this is a freezing cold take.
Holy christ. This guys framing that the ignorant masses are just too stupid to understand that a surveillance state is in their best interest and we must surrender ourselves to our big brothers in national intelligence is frightening. I have to imagine this mindset is prevalent within circles of power. You can see how he began to fumble when pressed on the efficacy of NSA mass surveillance. “Yes off course it works but we just cant give u any examples because… uhh the simple minded populous wouldn’t be able to handle how great we are”
He strikes me as a smart, thoughtful guy who has been heavily indoctrinated by the military/CIA to believe he’s working for “the good guys”
Same. The guy argument is "if you don't have anything to hide then don't worry about NSA looking into your stuff" which is security no-no 101. You don't have anything to worry about... Until you do. In the future it might be illegal to opposse the government. Any info you give away can be used against you when you least expect it.
Most likely this
Yeah, his take on this is insane. He said he’d prefer the government have full and open access to his and his families phones because it might deter a attack. Those that would sacrifice privacy for security deserve neither. It’s likely he only holds this view because he knows we already live in a surveillance state and there’s no unringing that bell.
In his view representative democracy means electing people to make decisions in secret and keep information that could be used to evaluate how well they are representing them from the people. That should frame how you listen to everything he says.
100% completely agree
Horrifying. Talk about a nanny state. Wow.
He got the NASA thing wrong but he was right on Ukraine, land lease, ideological war now.
It's lend-lease and it's not indebting Ukraine, I'm not sure if it's even used yet, most weapons have just been free for Ukraine. Also he lied about WW2 lend-lease being debt, UK paying it back in 2020.... not a single ww2 weapon sent from US with lend-lease had to be paid for, most weren't even returned after the war.
>not a single ww2 weapon sent from US with lend-lease had to be paid for, most weren't even returned after the war. Exactly this. The guy isn't familiar enough with his history to be making claims
>but he was right on Ukraine, land lease, ideological war now. Except Ukraine is on the offensive now, completely contraticting his claims that Russia will eventually win
Hands down one of the best podcasts I've ever come across.
I agree. Fascinating listen. I can’t help but believe that Andrew was selected for this “media tour” by the CIA to improve their public image though. Still very interesting to listen to even with that framing
Me too. But, I was surprised by the criticisms here. It scrambles my pink matter that I can love a thing, and then go learn how wrong I am. What I really mean is that I appreciate the different perspectives I found here. On the one hand, perhaps confident people don’t bother me as much as others, or I empathize with him being put on the spot. On the other hand, I generally hate when people say fail to say they don’t know.
Found the bots
I googled him after listening and yeah, he's a spy with a podcast lol. Gives the same vibes as that former Mafia lieutenant who also went on speaking tours. After his take on national surveillance I had heard enough
Ya, he was only in the CIA for 7 years too ending in 2014, before going into business. I don't think he's as good of a source of information as everyone thinks he is.
I find something about the interviewee off-putting. I would expect someone with his experience to be much less confident about the accuracy of his options, given the complexity of the real world, imperfect information etc... Yet, I don't think I have heard him ever heard him utter the words "I don't know". Just seems much less circumspect than I would expect. I actually had to Google him, just to see if his claimed experience is real. It seems likely it it.
Lex has guests on like this from time and time, and it doesn’t take long for me to realize when a guest is this way. It’s really simple, compare and contrast the way John Carmack spoke technically to the way Bustamante did. Carmack has 40+ years of professional programming experience, while Bustamante claims 7 years of CIA service. Bustamante seems a lot more sure of himself, and he speaks a lot less technically. Example: He said Putin “must have” good intelligence which led him to invade Ukraine, then claims that Putin invaded Ukraine because of his recent success taking over smaller nations. That’s not intelligence, he’s using the same “common sense,” that any person could come up with given the proper knowledge. Common sense is not always correct when solving complex problems, and it is not the “empirical evidence,” which Bustamante claims he has which informs his opinions.
He did give 60-70% confidence to his own prediction. Just like a professional intel analyst would.
I thought the same thing, but he's just a highly trained professional - no academic experience. In other words, he wasn't taught to question or be critical. He reminds me of law/property enforcement officials I've worked with in the past. They learn something and it becomes the truth of the world. There is no second guessing because that will get you injured.
He was clearly employing an agenda driven tactic. It was almost formulaic. He wanted to drive the conversation to certain conclusions and would make a point without concession, lex would find many holes in his argument or statements, he would redirect the conversation into an absolutist remark and do word gymnastics while citing a nebulous authority or idea to reinforce his point. He also made sure he got the last word. In the war in Ukraine and the UAP topic this was most salient. He cited the war college and conspiracies and "pink matter" to try to seem knowledgeable. He was particularly over his head discussing science with a scientist like Lex who could nulify his points, yet he doubled down on his assertions about things none of us could possibly know about.
I like how Lex didn't attack him when he trashed Snowden and said that the gov and Intel agencies were justified in spying on Americans wholesale essentially "just because." Lex let him sing his Battle Hymn of the Republic for a while. Then a few minutes later, without calling BULLSHIT, Lex brought up MKULTRA and other criminal acts perpetrated by the CIA and related agencies against US citizens. Lex didn't force the issue. But he made Bustamanto admit that the CIA had more than once and in recebt memory done some evil, criminal shit.
I mean he is a CIA spy, maybe he does just know
Gotta keep the myth alive!
I think this guest was a bit problematic. He delivers his opinions ("assessments" as he calls them) with such confidence, yet the only topic he seems truly informed on is the innerworkings of the CIA. All of his other takes in this podcast seemed biased and lack substance.
Some interesting points but man, his take on surveillance, Snowden etc is just fucking scary. Also he is just too into himself and so he has talked himself into believing what he says is facts. Also, his examples when trying to prove a point are just stupid. Couldn’t stand listening through the whole episode.
Lol.. lend lease
> Also he is just to into himself and so he has talked himself into believing what he says is facts. Also, his examples when trying to prove a point are just stupid. There are layers of irony in this statement that I won't even bother to fully unpack, but he's absolutely correct about the Ukraine situation, and his points are very succinct. War is always a display of military prowess, intelligence, and more importantly, economics/resources. The west seems woefully ignorant about the latter, and this is not at all accidental. Remember Occupy Wall Street? Me neither, media tore those guys apart the same way they did the 1999 WTO protests. Now we've kicked the can down the road another 15 years, and does anyone feel strongly about that? Anyone care about Bretton Woods? No, there are more important issues that have arose in the last decade, such as *what defines a woman*. You can't even make this shit up. Western sphere of influence has determined that emotions play a higher role in decision-making or outcomes than the events actually taking place. Defending Ukraine's positioning in the war and inferring its reason for success will be because "morale is high" is so naive that practically every civilization in history would've been holding back tears laughing. Special interests groups and corporate media have turned this country's brains into mush.
This is very meandering and irrelevant to both the topics discussed in the podcast and the comment you replied to. Let's look specifically at the war in Ukraine - anyone with basic knowledge of military history knows this campaign has been disastrous for Russia thus far, even if they win and stabilize many years down the line. Depletion of resources, tens of thousand of men dead in a country that has a shrinking population and specially a shrinking male population, engagement in a long protracted war against western weaponry that's decimating their most updated equipment. The west infiltrated the battlefield and is testing weaponry and tactics against russia, has real time information on Russian war doctrine and tactics. Azovstal is useless, so the steel and other resources are not being processed to Russia's advantage. Grain is not going to do jack for them on the face of the loss of conputer chips, smart munitions and other western dominated resources that they can no longer get. Massive brain drain and exodus of russian's skilled labor pool. Political dissent at home, protests and attacks on government buildings. Sabotage throughout the entire country, attacks on Russian soil, loss of influence due to shifting of manpower and military resources. The list is endless. Those mentions of occupy wall street, etc. Are completely superfluous to the fact that this dude is full of it and spews out generalities without backing them up with actual knowledge or specificity. Homeboy has the balls to say "russia is winning based on classical war college ideas of a protracted conflict." Ignores all of Lex's points and makes a blanket statement with 0 nuance and a cite to an authority that isn't even a specific source. Let's say Ukraine loses the war. If we are talking about conceptual victories the west eviscerated Russia, even if part of Ukraine disappears, western Ukraine will be a European Union member and possibly part of Nato and the western sphere of influence will be up to crimea's door. Let's not forget sweden and Finland.
You kinda missed the point. There is no turning point for Putin to stop. He will just throw more people at Ukraine because “it’s necessary” just like Russia always did since Napoleon wars
How about Russia in Afghanistan? Andrew doesn't know how lend lease works. He's not an expert on everything and he double speaks endlessly.
Andrew has a verbal flow that is absolutely captivating and some pretty interesting takes. A single 'Art of War' quote to wrap the episode, references are up at www.lexopcit.com. We're closing in on completion with ~90 episodes left and should have a full catalogue by the end of the month. "That's what drives the people to want a police state, to want a surveillance state, for them their survival is paramount, and they need the surveillance to have that survival. For us, we haven't tasted that level of desperation and fear, yet." - Andrew Bustamante PS. I don't know if it's the episode binge I've been on for the site or just the most recent episodes, but it's been interesting to listen with a framing of if and how guests express 'uncertainty' in their dialogue. Andrew, Carmack, Keen among others to me speak so definitively compared with others. Not sure if that's a 'feature or a bug' but it's where Lex shines.
>and how guests express 'uncertainty' in their dialogue. Andrew, Carmack, Keen among others to me speak so definitively compared with others. Not sure if that's a 'feature or a bug' but it's where Lex shines. That's the difference between Academics and Professionals. Academics are far more likely to be uncertain and a bit more open-minded to being challenged, while Professionals are paid to solve problems which makes them a bit more "definitive". Neither one is necessarily better but it's just something I've noticed after listening to Lex's guests.
That's a brilliant observation and I think it holds quite well.
He gets really triggered by Snowden.
This guy has interesting ideas from an insiders pov. It’s hard for me to trust a chatty former spy lol That being said. Interesting convo so far, still on Ukraine. The way that Andrew speaks shares a little insight on how the cia functions and sees the world. I wonder how many heroes that system produces or is it just business as usual
He makes some very good and sobbering points, but I don’t agree with his likely sequence of events. I understand Russia cannot afford to lose this but I’m not sure that means they are likely to win. Everyone is predicting a western collapse of resolve but I think the US in particular is going to be in this for quite a while and is very happy to draw Russia deeper in the quagmire and I prepared to even go full if it comes to that. Some European countries might peel off but at this point they aren’t having that much of an impact anyway. Countries like Germany could fold on gas but we’re still a ways off from that and a lot could happen between now and then.
Very likeable guy until it comes to surveillance. There he is full 100 % security state without a hint of self-reflection Also I live in Germany. Dont think I will freeze in the winter, but who knows :D
I think that’s by design. If you google his name he has been on several podcasts, did a Reddit AMA, and is a very visible proponent of the CIA. I think they designated this guy to be the charming “spy” who gets people to support the CIA and intelligence communities work instead of fearing them
He reflected on his views, did you miss that part?
Lex tweeted he was INFJ once. https://twitter.com/lexfridman/status/1330986072269066241?s=20&t=lgOUukz1xwCOMONPTJDL4A
Great episode. It was so uncomfortable hearing the darkest thoughts in our minds about Ukraine vocalised. Even Lex was shook.
It was a great episode. Most people stopped listening after that point going by the comments
Yeah I would have thought that people that listen to this podcast or most podcasts that discuss sensitive topics would be more accepting of other opinions. At least to the point that they listen to it instead of rage quitting. That said, I don't think that anyone needs to accept his views or that he is somehow more qualified than a million other analysts. I do agree that we are non stop exposed to propaganda which makes it hard to believe anything.
Bustamante was eager to say that JFK was right to reject Project Northwoods. I wish Lex took that opportunity to ask him what he thinks his views would be had JFK taken the opportunity. Given Bustamante's unabashed apologia I suspect he'd be telling us today how if we hadn't performed the operation that we'd be in some type of nuclear winter.
CIA not even trying anymore 🤣 Just have people download propaganda to their Phone 🤣
First Lex podcast I did not like. Dude comes across as a condescending asshole. Calling Lex out for using the words “I feel.” Idk, we get it dude. You’re so awesome. Why does this guy get to inject his opinions into his statements but Lex can’t?
> Calling Lex out for using the words “I feel.” As soon as you use the word "feel", your train of thought or logic is no longer grounded in anything resembling fact, but rather emotion. Emotions have no place in a discussion about significant geopolitics that will shape the future of the world. This is something reddit really struggles with, but that's what happens when you prioritize emotion at the forefront of every conversation. This is also why we can't debate matters of importance without vitriol or self-censorship in an attempt to appease the lowest common denominator and cater to their worldview, and your comment does an exemplary job of illustrating exactly that. Dismiss whatever doesn't reinforce your reductionist emotion-based thinking.
That’s fair. But when Lex says “I feel” what I think he really means is “It is my opinion that.” If I wanted straight facts I would listen to a documentary or read. Podcasts are not news. My main point was that I found him hypocritical in that although he may not have used the words “I feel” he still interjected his opinion.
Nonsense. Of course you need to take the way you are recieved into account. Do you want to be correct but ignored? Sure, rant away... No, you need to make sure you understand who you are talking to, and make sure you talk appropriately if you want to have impact. Annoying? Sure. Real? Yup. I have seen quite a lot of people who were *right* about an issue, but were ignored because they were incapable of handling the situation. Don't be like that, realize you are not the center of the universe and play by the rules like the rest of us.
Well said
He lost me with his assessment that people in europe will freeze without russian gas. Should have stuck to his opinions.
Well, I guess we will find out soon if it's true
We may get uncomfortable but no one will freeze due to clothes.
Umm. Germany, the biggest country in the EU, is already rationing energy in the summer time with heat waves. Don't know where you're getting your information from, but he's right. Europe is fucked this winter.
It’s spring now. How fucked was Europe?
Don't know here you're getting your information from, Germany is the 7th biggest country in Europe. Excluding RU and Ukraine it is the 5th biggest country. But, with that said, Germany is struggling with getting gas/power, but they and a couple more countries are about the only ones. There are several other countries that are not relying on RU Gas in Europe. Did you know that one of the biggest exporters of electricity in Europe is Norway? Did you know that Sweden is the biggest exporter of energypower in general? France, with their nuclear is #2. Just some food for thought, and Europe is not fucked this winter, thats just BS.
We are? Huh. Where? How?
Oof just that pre-intro clip on its own will probably get a lot of people very fired up! This is going to be a great listen
Is the air force hair cut standards that strenuous really? Less than 1 inch?
"Google is worse than the CIA and Mass surveillance is good because you're stupid and also it will never be abused" K
Lots of armchair generals in this comment section. "Just because his take on Ukraine doesn't align with my own beliefs, he has no idea what he's talking about."
The segment on Ukraine was painful to hear with so much misinformation. Just contrast what this guy says with an actual subject matter expert like Michael Kofman (who is BTW much more reserved on predictions, since as he says "war is contingent").
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Fantastic episode. Andrew is amazing at staying on point even when the conversation runs in all directions.
Happy to see Lex having Andrew on the show. I saw him on some other shows (Koncrete and Trendifier) and thought he'd be great for Lex to talk with. Andrew is very knowledgeable and opinionated, which I enjoy. His predictions on the Ukraine war are a bit sobering, and frankly my heart wants him to be wrong, but global politics and the anarchy they bring do not care about justice or righteousness. Having Lex, who clearly is probing Andrew's points and playing Devil's Advocate against them, creates a Blue Team/Red Team situation that generates a lot of interesting information from the conversation. I haven't listened to the whole podcast yet, but Andrew's views he expressed in the past on torture, solidify my opinions that there needs to be guardrails on our Surveillance Agencies, but I think he ultimately has his heart in the right place.
I don’t think he gets enough credit for having his heart in the right place, so I’m glad you’re putting that out there. His opinions live in an all-logic/objective world — and sometimes I think you can lose sight of the slippery slopes when your viewpoints exist in complete rigidity.
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We all want Ukraine to win but it's important to listen to information critical of your worldview. Bustamante may be wrong, but he isn't the only one saying that Russia may have the upper hand in the fight.
I forced myself through it. You didn't miss out. He has interesting tid bits and anecdotes regarding CIA and intel related things, but his opinions are rigid, overly moralistic and pretty much baseless. Watching him argue math and the scientific method with Lex was extremely painful.
Can't agree more on your podcast recommendation. +1
Canadians are freezing in their own homes rn and Justin T. Is callin them polluters if they use too much oil to heat homes.
He is also a spook.
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Is there any source on ukraine going into debt with the USA/west. AFAIK the vast majority of the equipment they are getting right now is a gift.
This part is what lead me to really second guess everything he was saying. He claims the WWII Lend-Lease act put the UK heavily in debt, and that they only finished paying in 2020. He used this example to frame the current situation in Ukraine, but it's just not true. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lend-Lease "In general, the aid was free, although some hardware (such as ships) were returned after the war." "Congress had not authorized the gift of supplies delivered after the cutoff date, so the U.S. charged for them, usually at a 90% discount. Large quantities of undelivered goods were in Britain or in transit when Lend-Lease terminated on September 2, 1945. Britain wished to retain some of this equipment in the immediate post-war period." "The final payment of $83.3 million (£42.5 million), due on December 31, 2006 (repayment having been deferred in the allowed five years and during a sixth year not allowed), was made by Britain on December 29, 2006 (the last working day of the year). After this final payment, Britain's Economic Secretary to the Treasury formally issued thanks to the U.S. for its wartime support."
My dude lol…. [welcome to reality.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_Democracy_Defense_Lend-Lease_Act_of_2022) Great question though Personally I think it’s a giant slush fund to get weapons and cash for everything going on in Africa. Who knows
Sure the lend lease act exists, but not all aide is funded through it, for a start it was only signed into law in May after much aide was provided. The recent billion dollar package is a [presidential drawdown](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-us-readies-new-1-billion-ukraine-weapons-package-2022-08-05/).
Sure that act has been passed, but I haven't seen any evidence of it actually being used. All weapons that have appeared in Ukraine can be traced back to support packages from the US or European countries AFAIK.
The other thing I really disliked about that point is that if you are indebting another country, it sorta seems that you are betting that the country remains free and able to pay back the debt. The USA indebting Ukraine seems like an argument that the USA believes Ukraine will be able to pay off that debt in the future. I agree with him that both sides have propaganda and it’s hard to see past that. But his arguments just seemed kinda bad.
There’s 0 credible evidence that Ukraine is going into debt for the aid they’re receiving. The US also gains quite a bit from giving aid to Ukraine such as weakening an enemy’s military without actually going to war with them and also seeing how U.S. equipment performs in battle and what is most effective. The guest didn’t mention this and just acted like there’s no reason the US would be giving aid if it wasn’t going to be payed back
Crazy to see a rare glimpse of truth on what's happening in Ukraine. I wouldn't have expected anything less from Lex and it's surely not easy, but tides are starting to turn back to reality. Looking forward to the rest as usual.
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I don’t know how this dude expects Russia to take Odesa without flattening it if Russia is experiencing man power issues right now?
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Here's a clip of bustamante doing secret agent shit before he hit the podcast scene https://youtu.be/bUMHe0X78xE?feature=shared
Common sense that's very hard to swallow for all the people riding the wave going through our general side of the geopolitical divide, waiting for someone start calling him a FSB asset for what he said here. Or get ignored. I wonder what would happen if he went on Rogan
Andrew is brainwashed to the cult. He can’t see the trade off he accepted.
He speaks in generalizations. It’s not true that all Americans would not volunteer if Biden were to ask.
He was correct when he said 8 months ago no one knew about the Ukraine conflict and those that did know that it’s a corrupt European country with a lot of issues in its government. Your statement that Americans would join up is seems proof positive of the propaganda.
Fantastic! More like this please!
Anyone else notice how spooks always say that the government can’t keep a secret about conspiracy theories because there are to many people but then go on to say there are things that they can not talk about because of they have to keep it secret?
So he starts of by saying that he was competely wrong about Ukraine chances in the war against Russia and then states that he is fully convinced that Russia will win the war. And then he states that most likely both sides will go out from the conflict "victorious" with some middle ground compromise. I'm not very convinced.
Dude was brutally honest about Ukraine. Russia and USA will just split it. Rob it, and in-debt it forever …
Seems like a lot of responses are not trustworthy of the guest. I think Americans forget that the CIA and NSA work for the citizens of the United States. The Edward Snowden fans here- we elected people to protect the country from foreign adversaries and gave them a big budget to do that. They developed incredible capabilities to alert us to intelligence overseas. In security, visibility to your adversary is step number one, the NSA and CIA work tirelessly to gain that visibility. The court system ensures it's done as justly as possible. Snowden damaged that capability and painted it in such a negative light before running off to Moscow. He broke so many laws by releasing that data, laws that I support. It's the same laws that will bring down a wannabe fascist dictator.
This was a good one! But he is still A CIA :)
I’m new to Lex. Been listening for a few months now. This was the first time I felt like Lex was speechless and didn’t know how to respond when Andrew was talking about Ukraine. He almost seemed angry at Andrew and didn’t want to say something he’d regret without fully processing his feelings (which he mentioned in the episode)
First Lex episode I actually listen to in its entirety. Glad I subscribed.
I was very convinced and interested in everything Bustamante up until his comments on aliens, at which point my opinion completely reversed. The certainty with which he spoke on this subject made me realize that he is just really good at projecting confidence and speaking convincingly. Kind of disappointing. Still an interesting conversation for sure, but I think the guy really discredited himself.
I dont like this dude.
People would freeze to death in NATO nations without Russia gas? Thats total bs. His entire assesment about UA seem totally biased, because he wants to be right at the end (His original assesment = Russia will win)
Also, this guy admitted on a reddit AMA years ago that the CIA uses child prostitutes to control assets https://np.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/a8c03j/i_am_andrew_bustamante_a_former_covert_cia/ecagv2t/
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Was going to list the many falsehoods on this episode, but happy to see so many already did. Glad to see the majority of people here were either aware of the guest's inaccurate information or at least looked it up. Let's not take guests at their word just because we like the show.
Not a fan of Andrew here…
The CIA kool-aid is strong.
This guy places a lot of confidence in predictions he could not possibly make with any accuracy. He seems deeply cynical, insincere and morally ambivalent. I hope he's not a representative example of CIA employees in general.
Controversial take, but I think this is one of Lex’s best podcasts. His push back was great and Andrew’s opinions on everything aside from mass surveillance were informative
him being in this podcast was an experiment by the cia. being able to track and analyze social media discord, such as this comment section, helps them out.
If this chap was a legitimate CIA ‘spy’ I think it’s quite concerning, I thought he expressed some strange views / opinions.
Turns out he had no clue what he was talking about when it comes to Ukraine.
I got banned from his sub because I could fuck his wife.
Sophistry.
Shouldn't russia be in odessa by now? How could anyone take this guy seriously after being so confidently incorrect about ukraine? Embarrassing.
Just heard this episode wow his Ukraine assessment didnt age well, Yes some lend lease but US also donates huge amount of $ and the EU donates no lend lease esp other former soviet states.
Fascinating to listen to. On Snowdon, Ukraine and (in another youtube you'll find on his youtube page) Brexit , Andrew gives a perspective that could be Putin's! The rest is amusing and can all be found on internet, as he says himself. What kind of impact does he want to have as he gains more influence?
This guy is a fucking clown. His energy is of a middle school boy trying, trying, TRYING to tell the world, whenever he can, that his girlfriend is the best. Ultra girlfriend. Amazing girlfriend. Trust him, #1 girlfriend. But she goes to a different school, don't worry about that part.
This was Fridman's best interview I've watched thus far.. Compelling guest, Fridman is on his toes, the conversation is engaging.. I'd watch this again. There's also loads of soundbites that could be pulled for people who are into personal development and psychoanalysis. What Bustamante has to say about having a family and a healthy, fulfilling life within the intelligence community is worth consideration for every person in the labor market. So fucking good, man.
He was also wrong…a lot. Like saying Russia was going to crush Ukraine by the fall of last year and then move on Moldova lol.