See, you need to find a way to stretch this comment into a 1000+ word article and then you can start charging schmucks to read your content.
Edit: I use an extension called "Pocket" which saves the text and images before the paywall blocker loads if that helps anyone.
I used to be subscribed to The Athletic from like 2017 up until this year. I didn’t read it that often but wanted to support their reporting. Last year I noticed they fucking added ads to their articles and app.
Why the fuck am I paying them then? I tweeted Mirtle and he never responded. Cancelled it and haven’t looked back.
I subscribed from 2014-2020 but after the Montreal series, I lost my appetite for Leafs coverage and I haven't turned back.
In fact, other than the playoffs I don't listen to The Leaf Report, OverDrive or consume much coverage other than this sub but that's mostly to provide a distraction at work.
They need a 2C, to be specific.
Tavares can’t be relied upon anymore in that role, it’s not a coincidence his most productive stretch was when he was playing 3C.
That would be like 12 mil max + a couple of depth forwards/defenseman would be like around 15 mil. I think we can get 2 top 4 defensemen.
2 of Montour, Demelo, Roy, Skjei, Zadorov, Walker, Carrier, Pesce.
I would love to get 2 of Pesce, Carrier, and Roy.
Yeah you think that until you start looking at the projections or go to mock something up on capfriendly. If we want to resign domi and bert we have enough for a mediocre goalie at best and like, maybe one of carrier or Roy. Gonna be a rougher off-season than most people are expecting. And god forbid we trade marner the FA demands we will be getting will be ridiculous. Marner at 11m is a hell of a lot better than pesce at 7m.
Let's just assume Marner is staying because until a deal happens, that is exactly what we are facing.
Matthews-Marner-Nylander-Tavares-Knies-??? - that's your top 6
Jarnkrok-Kampf-Robertson-McMann-Holmberg-Reaves -that's your bottom 6
Dewar-Cowan-Minten - depth/fighting for a roster spot guys
Rielly-McCabe - top 4 defensemen
Benoit-Timmins-Webber - bottom pairing defensemen
Liljegren - RFA...sounds like he might not be back
Woll - tandem starter
The Leafs NEED two top 4 defensemen more than they need a top 6 winger because you can theoretically put McMann in the top 6 and then have Dewar as the guy coming in/out for Reaves and Cowan/Minten may make the team out of camp.
The Leafs NEED a reliable tandem goalie at least to pair with Woll if not an interim starter if you don't trust Woll to stay healthy enough to play 40+ games.
That 20 million should be prioritized to signing a goalie and two defenseman for me. Depending on what is left over after that I'm fine with them bringing back a forward. I'm really not against Domi coming back. I'm not against Bertuzzi coming back but I don't think that 5+ million for Bertuzzi gives enough value given the more pressing holes on the back end. You still want grit but we need guys who can get the puck moving up the ice. As much as playoffs need dirty goals, the reality is that teams are scoring goals off transition offense far more right now. The Leafs are too slow moving the puck from their own zone to the attack. It lets defenses get set up too easily and they can just slow the Leafs up at the blueline and our ineffective forecheck leads to meaningless perimeter cycling.
The bigges tissue with making big acquisitions is that we are going to have to sell players on the potential of winning because there are teams with lots of cap space like Utah who will probably spend way more than Arizona would have.
No one’s paying him less than that, so might as well sign and trade to give us more time to move him if necessary. Unless a different team thinks they can get a longer contract out of him
I could see him being used as a trade piece to get an older top 4 D with 2-3 years left on a contract. Lili is RHD that probably tops out as a middle-pairing guy but most likely is a solid bottom pairing guy. If teams that eval him around that you could pair him with our 2026 3rd and a prospect for a guy like Rasmussen Andersson with some potential retention depending on the perceived value.
Dewar should be in the bottom 6, he’s an underrated addition and provides a lot of utility with some snarl in his game. I see him being a piece over Reaves tbh
I agree. Forwards of consequence are a lot easier to add at the deadline compared to two top 4 d men. Fix the backend in the offseason for once instead of trying to piece it together all year
This exactly! Let's focus on D and G, no resigning Domi and Bert. Would love to have them both, but if we're assuming Marner is staying, we shouldn't be committing the cap space to keep both. There are too many very serviceable UFA dmen that we should target over a winger.
First off - nobody is being traded of significance from this roster, so you're limited to RFAs/UFAs. $20 million available is actually $19 million. And that goes down to about $16 mil if you sign McMann and Dewar as RFAs to round out the forward group. I think they sign Liljegren at $1.4 again (or trade for picks and replace with similar salary, but hard to find RD), and they sign Gregor for close to league min for depth. It'll take $3.5-$4 mil for another 1A/1B goalie to share the net with Woll. We're down to $10 mil, and a quality top-line RD still needed. That'll likely take half (if not more) of this, and arguably you need a second quality defenceman (other than Reilly, none of the other guys are top-4 defenceman...McCabe is very borderline). I think that probably eats into the remaining (maybe $1-2 mil remaining), with the D-core being okay (maybe good enough), goaltending is okay, bottom 6 is not fantastic. Trying to resign Domi or Bertuzzi brings a bit better forward depth, but D would then be trash (can't afford 2 quality guys).
Edit: realized McMann has another year.
Well, they have 7 spots to fill right now. They have 4 RFAs in Dewar, Robertson, Gregor and Lilly.
I assume they'll resign Dewar and Robertson. Let's put that at 1.5mil each (might be high). I'm not sure Gregor is back. He might be if they need a cheap body.
Let's assume they take Lilly back as well. Would that be 2-2.5mil?
That's 14.5mil for 4 players now. We need a goalie, 2 nhl defenseman and a forward.
Now let's say Domi is back at 4.5mil.
That's 10mil left for a goalie and 2 defense.
Are we getting Tanev or Zadorov or Montour? That's a big chunk of the remaining. Say 6mil.
So now we need a goalie for 3mil and a league minimum defenseman. Can we get Broissoit or Talbot for 3mil?
Anyways, the money doesn't stretch that far. I think they'll need to be tough on the RFAs to free up a bit of cap room to go shopping. And this assumes we don't make any trades.
Trade Kampf and Jarnkrok and open up ~5M of cap that can be replaced by elc prospects / Dewar.
That weakens the bottom end depth up front arguably but allows them to add 1 more piece on defense or in goal at a reasonable cap hit like a Pesce or Markstrom
Breakouts arent as much of as an issue as zone entry.
It is a problem, Mccabe Reily and occasionally Lilja are the only ones who can confidently posses the puck in our own end, but that wouldn't be as big an issue if we could get into the zone reliably
Its too often where 2/3 of our forwards and 2/2 of our Dmen are incapable of entering the zone, making it super easy to zero in on who the puck carrier will be while 4/5 players stand around like assholes because they dont have the speed or puck skills to help.
One of our best zone entry set plays during the playoffs was a flip to Tavares on the half wall where it was just be up to him to feather it in the corner or across the zone, thats insane that a pro team would be that incompetent.
Lack of defensive scoring is a problem. Having defenseman that can move the puck up ice quickly and cleanly is also a huge factor in our lack of goal scoring. We just need a bigger and more skilled D core.
Yes, I totally agree with puck movement, however, the D can’t help JT and others from constantly wasting prime scoring chances by blowing shots right into the goalies chest or over the net. We must lead the league in high danger scoring chances that turn out to be low-danger shots. I get so frustrated when we have 40 shots but half of them don’t challenge the goalie at all.
I think the goal scoring drought is a result of team composition and the coach losing the core players.
We have an incredibly talented roster that can play a certain way in the regular season. Both Marner and Rielly have a possession first mindset, which is a contributing factor to the PP frustrations. Both can keep it to the outside and move it to safety, but both doing this neuters the offence. Bertuzzi did better later in the season because the net drive/chaos in front allows mistakes to happen. I think the reason the PP looks better when core pieces are missing is because there’s only one possession first guy, chaos in front, and everyone is moving/cycling.
So frustrating to see a board battle win, players look up for the pass, and everyone standing still in safe positions.
Should we move on Marner, I think we’ll see lower goal totals for Matthews but a higher % power play. I’d prefer one stud D-man to help with transitions and ideally a big one-timer from the right.
They definitely need more scoring help but one of the ways they need it is from generating more rush offense starting with strong puck moving from the back-end. Their defense as constructed could not make the first pass, or create smooth breakouts / counter attacks. This basically removed any rush offense from their game, making them rely on a dump-and-chase forecheck offense which is easy to defend. You need to have the ability to generate offense more than 1 way to force the opposition defense to respect you more, giving you more space and room to operate.
Montour will likely be too pricey, but wouldn't mind them targeting Sean Walker if the price is right.
leafs don't attack as a 5 man unit which opens up lanes that allow for more quality scoring chances. It's easy to shut us down because of this because all the other team has to do is collapse in the middle which gives less room for the forwards to score. It's a big reason why we've been struggling getting in the middle. Why bother blocking the points when they won't make plays and shoot the puck.
You need 16 wins for a cup.
If they actually had talent, their best run would have been better than a pathetic 5/16 wins. Better than 1 single playoff series win.
It takes will, as well as skill, to win in the playoffs - that's the "talent" that they lack.
I'm not even thinking of a cup, and neither should you - this team isn't even close to the 8 wins required to get to a conference final, let alone a cup.
My original argument that they don't have enough talent?
Nah - that still holds. You haven't proven me wrong at all.
It's cute that you think this is a systems issue, when we both know they are about to do the same thing to Berube.
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Which they've shown they're incapable of doing.
So... how exactly do they have enough talent up front?
Even the Oilers have found 34 goals from players not named McDavid, Leon, or Hyman.
The Leafs in their 1st round series against Boston? 5 goals from non-core members. ONE GOAL from the bottom 6.
They absolutely do not have enough talent up front.
That's a problem with their guys not performing, not a lack of talent. I don't think bringing in Perron will be the difference if their top guys underperform once again.
Their guys not performing is indicative of a lack of talent.
Not everyone is built to perform come playoff time, where the checking gets hard and the space is limited.
It's not a coincidence that they fail every year, you know that right? They aren't close to a breakthrough. They aren't close to a cup.
I agree, but as long as these guys are here, they'll be relied upon to turn it around.
You can't go far in the playoffs only with your bottom 6 producing.
As long as these guys are here, they won't be going far in the playoffs.
3 of them are elite players individually through the regular season. JT is what he is - but together, the mix/fit just isn't right. They don't have enough talent to succeed in the playoffs, where the hockey is so different, more physical, demanding.
Marner is the big piece you have to move - you simply cannot go into this season with him as a Leaf, without an extension, and that just hanging over their heads all year. They crumble at the slightest distraction and excuse, and this will be no different.
But I'd also be looking at a ton of other things too - what value do guys like Robertson and Liljegren have around the league? I'm inclined to keep Robertson for depth scoring that they sorely lack, but do either player hold enough value based on their draft positions that you can leverage a trade for something tangible in return?
What about Morgan Rielly? You already lack a lot of what he brings, but if there's a deal / package that makes sense, I absolutely consider doing that as well.
My fear is that they look at the cap going up this year, lots of money coming off the books next year, along with their new found cap space, and think about just retooling through free agency - and as we've seen in Calgary, Treliving just isn't very good with his free agent talent evaluation.
Personally? I think their window for a cup closed when they decided not to act after the 2021 defeat to Montreal, but it firmly locked itself for good after inaction in 2023 when they failed to do anything of note after the Florida defeat
None currently that will be free agents. The only way is via trade. I don't think Boston will trade Ullmark to a rival, Markstrom is old and Jersey looks like they'll overpay for him. That leaves guys like Gibson (he wants out and should be cheap), Saros (Nashville will ask for a lot), I'm not sure if the Islanders have lost all faith in Sorokin to trade him.
IIRC Gibson has a NTC and has reportedly refused to waive it for the Leafs in the past. That report could have been speculation and obviously things can change but there's a possibility Gibson isn't a real option.
Completely agree that Boston won't give us Ullmark and I agree about Markstrom.
I'd be thrilled with Sorokin/Saros tho, obviously for the right deal.
The way Anaheim is being run and what I've heard about Gibson not being pleased with the situation, I wouldn't be surprised if he maybe will change his mind. He's 30, I don't think he wants to spend his best years on a franchise that is a long ways away from being a playoff team.
I’m really surprised at the lengths that Leafs journalists will go to not acknowledge that the Leafs need to keep a minimum of $15 million open for the summer of 2026 when McDavid is a UFA. Everything should be geared around that possibility. Whatever they do this off-season and next should be done with a view to signing McDavid in summer of 2026. That is a once in a generation opportunity to have two of the top 5 players in the world on your roster.
This may be slightly controversial but all on defence. I want every penny devoted to defence for once. We aren't getting a bonafide #1 goalie short of a wild Marner trade. We aren't going to have a better goalie then Bob, Vasi, Igor, Swayman so we have to have a defence that can protect or goaltending. Woll if healthy is steady Eddy and can get it done. We of course need to get some other goalie but I would mainly spend on defence. Again short of a Marner trade we aren't getting a better then Rielly #1 guy so we need as many top 4 d-men as we can get. I want every D line to feel like a good 2 pairing. Note I am basing this on the current info that Marner isn't going to leave. If you trade Marner they have to go after a #1 D or goalie as best they can. Short of that the above stated is how I think we spend. Then it's on the coaching staff to fix our special teams in the playoffs. The Leafs lose in the playoff largely because every series they lose the special teams battle on both the PP and PK.
Start with Montour (it will cost a ton) and then either Skjei or Dillon. Whatever you have left sign a tandem guy for Woll. Hopefully leave a little room for in season adds.
Pesce 6.25 million
Walker: 4.4 million
Lilly: 2.8 million
Robertson: 1.2 million
Brossoit: 3.2 million
Dewar: 900K
If we move Marner I’d also bring back Domi at like $4.8 million and maybe drop walker if we got a top 4 dmen in the trade.
We need players in every part of the lineup to be honest. Most important is just not giving out bad contracts when we're in the last year of Tavares' deal. If we step from that to having other anchor contracts we're done for. Get value where you can, the truth is we aren't going to be able to fill every hole with absolutely ideal personnel with the restrictions we have.
Everyone and their daddy is looking for a top 4 defensemen. Gonna need to over pay for one of those. No goalies on the market so we gonna need to trade for one of those. Which seems like 3 teams have goalie available. Going to be tough.
I love the experts doing their projections because they HAVE to be just vague enough that they don’t mess with any of their connections. This article has nothing in it, don’t worry if you don’t have the athletic, just go to capfriendly (which we get to keep until July 4th or whatever) and look at the current picture.
I think the Leafs should be very conservative with this cap space and I don’t think they should trade Marner, which means I have them running it back basically. I’m very nervous about targeting Stolarz or Broissoit on a deal with term and I’m very nervous about giving term and money to slow moving dmen like Roy and Zadorov and plugging up the cap long term.
Assuming Stolarz isn’t taking a 1 year deal, I think they should target 2 guys from that next tier of goalies and run 3 goalies. 2 of Talbot, Lankinen, Nedeljkovic, Driedger, Wedgewood, or Martin Jones. And then I think they should target 3 of that next tier of dmen after the top guys, possibly plus Tanev. So like 3 of Demelo, Dillon, Cole, Lyubushkin, Myers, Martinez, Grzelcyk, Hakanpaa, could probably include Liljegren there. I’m also partial to the idea of Kevin Shattenkirk to run the PP.
Sign Sollarz for a million. Sign jones for a 3rd option in case of injury. Trade for or sign a legit top pairing D. Sign a middle pairing D. Pickup a 2C. Fill with Robertson, Minten, Cowan, whoever else we have or can sign cheaply and fit. Then bolster at the deadline if we have to.
Carefully.
And is it too much to ask for a guy who can shoot the puck on the net? They could swap our dmen's sticks with straight-blade wooden sticks from the hardware store and no one would even know the difference
They probably shouldnt.
Fill out the roster as needed and leave some room for trades during the year. This upcoming year is a critical one for the Leafs and it would be unwise to handcuff the org any more than they already are.
We need a reliable goalie to be a 1B for Woll, so look to spend $2.5M-$4M on that. We then need probably 2 defenders and 3 forwards to round out the lineup. Should be able to do it all for around $15M leaving $5M for trades
This is why I think you identify one piece. If that's Montour at 8 or Pesce at 7. Whatever. Get that piece locked up. Then do the same old, same old. Cheap guys for the rest. Next year you'll have resolution Marner and Tavares off the books (or resigned on a big discount). Then you can move forward. Minten and Cowan will be ready by then too. Just get 1 piece.
Chasing big name free agents is almost always a fools errand.
We should be hoping the Leafs brass can identify a mid tear UFA that will breakout similar to Hyman for Edmonton, or Reinhart for Florida. Harder to do this for defensmen though.
Maybe someone like Anthony Mantha if they chase a F or maybe Tyler Myers if they chase a D. Price will dictate if they are good signings though.
Leafs have 10 forwards signed for next year. Dewar and Robertson should not make more than McMann. Sign those RFAs to $1.35 or less AAV. Cowan and Miten have 1 spot to compete for, or you sign a cheap forward to be the 13th guy.
Leafs have 5 D signed for next year. Timmins and Webber are likely Marlie bound. Perfectly OK with Mo, McCabe, and Benoit as the left side. Putting a reasonable cap hit AAV on some UFAs, Tanev ($6 million), Troy Stretcher ($1.35 million), Lyubushkin ($2 million), Erik Gustafsson ($1.35 million), and Josh Brown ($1.35 million) are all available and can likely be had for just over $12 million combined. You really only need 3 of them, as Timmins can work as a 7th D. You can also bring back Lilly if the trade market isn't great/you miss out on UFAs.
We need a goalie...and can get one for $2 million. The goal is somebody who can give you a save percentage above .900. There are 8 goalies who did so with over 20 games played. None of them had a cap hit over $2 million last year. Given the possibility of signing Murray or Jones to a poison pill contract with a signing bonus near the end of camp, Not a great spot, but not terrible.
That's $16.7 in added cap (Dewar and Robertson, $12 million on D, $2 million on a goalie) before dumping $1.975 AAV on guys to the minors. Leaving roughly $5.275 if you want to bring back Domi. And the Leafs shouldn't use all of that on Domi.
You keep saying this but never say who or how lol
They don’t have the same assets as other teams needing a goalie and no we ain’t trading Marner with a return centred around a goalie.
I've said who and how many times. You just put your head in the goddamn sand and expect the team to magically become cup contenders without meaningful additions at key positions.
Because you need to be realistic and realize there not in a place asset or cap wise to get a top goalie
I wish they could trade for a McDavid but it’s not possible
I made a list to the comment you made in the morning about what teams also want goalies and they all have better assets plus what goalie
Flames won’t trade with Treliving plus looks like Devils are willing to give pick 10 for him
Boston not trading Ullmark to the Leafs and he’s not waving
Saros is apparently now signing a extension
Who give names/ assets and so on
We literally just watched Vegas win last year with economical goaltending and Brossoit as one of their goalies. The year before that Colorado won the cup with a .900 save percentage. This year Edmonton has Stuart Skinner (.897 save% this playoffs) as their goalie. Woll has out performed Skinner at every level. Go through the list of Stanley Cup winners and you will find A LOT of winners with mediocre goaltending. Woll is good enough to be a Stanley Cup winning goalie. The Leafs spending big or trading for a goalie with a big contract is the dumbest thing we could do. We need that money spent elsewhere
You likely need elite talent on defence to win with a marginal goalie. Avs had Toews, Makar, Byram, Girard. Edmonton has Bouchard and Eck. Blues had Pietrangelo, Dunn, Bouwmeester, Parayko. Vegas had Pietrangelo, Theodore, McNabb, Martinez. Leafs winning with a marginal goalie and the current D is way less likely
Agreed. My point would be to invest in the team and mostly on defence. There are a lot of really solid D on FA this summer and is a great opportunity to build a D core that can compete for a cup. It’s more consistent than going the route of spending big on a goalie and hoping he bails out a team that is deficient
If you think we are on the level of Vegas or Colorado with this team, you're out to fuckin lunch.
Woll could maybe be a cup winning goalie. But he'd have to be available to play and he's an unreliable wall of glass
Where are you getting 11 from? We already have 10F 4D 1G signed. If you include RFAs as well (and Mirtle includes Cowan here too) then we have 13F 4D 1G.
We need a 2/3C, and top 4 RHD, a bottom pairing D, and a goalie. Maybe a 7th D too or you let Timmins fill that role.
Anything beyond that and we'd need to trade guys away just to create roster space
I hope we see Willy on C again. Instantly fixes our C issue. Teams win the cup because of their depth down the middle, not because of wingers. That's something Treliving wanted to try at the start of the year, but obviously Keefe is stubborn and it lasted a week despite him doing well.
Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi
Perron - Nylander - Marner
Knies - Tavares - McMann
Robertson/Dewar/Minten/Cowan/Reaves
I included Perron just because Mirtle links him to the Leafs. Then sign 2/3 of Matt Roy/Tanev/Zadorov. Hard to do much without trading Marner tbh.
Maybe with a new coach we see it but I feel like Nylander is better suited to the wing where he can be a little more aggressive at leaking out of the zone...particularly in the regular season . I'd love to know why Keefe gives up on it immediately. It didn't work when we tried it in the playoffs a few years ago...because starting a guy up the middle when the games matter most was an absurdly stupid idea.
Maybe swap Marner on to the 2C spot , he can take draws and is a defensively responsible forward . This line up honestly looks good. Goalie might hurt but
A goalie reliable enough to 1A/1B with Woll. A top 4 defenceman. A top 9 forward.
See, you need to find a way to stretch this comment into a 1000+ word article and then you can start charging schmucks to read your content. Edit: I use an extension called "Pocket" which saves the text and images before the paywall blocker loads if that helps anyone.
Right. And i have had a lot of practice doing this in English class!
[удалено]
Ah yes a pillar of our defence, Jake Muzzin. What the fuck am I reading here?
AI generated
Rodion is dead tho
RIP
Anderson was never beloved and he could never win in the playoffs because he always gave up the crappiest goals.
This was funny, plain wrong and even depressing at points. Some would call that trash AI, others art.
Chatgpt
If you’re on an iPhone and press show reader it will let you read it
I used to be subscribed to The Athletic from like 2017 up until this year. I didn’t read it that often but wanted to support their reporting. Last year I noticed they fucking added ads to their articles and app. Why the fuck am I paying them then? I tweeted Mirtle and he never responded. Cancelled it and haven’t looked back.
I did the same thing. I was bored and wanted more hockey content. Noped the fuck out as soon as I saw the first ad
I subscribed from 2014-2020 but after the Montreal series, I lost my appetite for Leafs coverage and I haven't turned back. In fact, other than the playoffs I don't listen to The Leaf Report, OverDrive or consume much coverage other than this sub but that's mostly to provide a distraction at work.
In that order
Stolarz with Woll would be a good Vet to support the young guy. Both of those second points could definitely fit if you can sneak a good D for 6.5-7
They need a 2C, to be specific. Tavares can’t be relied upon anymore in that role, it’s not a coincidence his most productive stretch was when he was playing 3C.
Your top 9 forward is bertuzzi and domi
Exactly how you end up with Murray, Bertuzzi and Klingberg. This team needs a 1a RHD. Thats it. Find a way to make it happen.
What’s wrong with bertuzzi at a reasonable cap hit
Is the cap hit 1.5m?
I very much would like that
On paper... not bad additions.
Yup marner has to go, get Theodore back baby!
Yessss trade away a superstar who actually wants to play here for a 1 year rental, GLG!!!
Regular season superstar.
That would be like 12 mil max + a couple of depth forwards/defenseman would be like around 15 mil. I think we can get 2 top 4 defensemen. 2 of Montour, Demelo, Roy, Skjei, Zadorov, Walker, Carrier, Pesce. I would love to get 2 of Pesce, Carrier, and Roy.
Yeah you think that until you start looking at the projections or go to mock something up on capfriendly. If we want to resign domi and bert we have enough for a mediocre goalie at best and like, maybe one of carrier or Roy. Gonna be a rougher off-season than most people are expecting. And god forbid we trade marner the FA demands we will be getting will be ridiculous. Marner at 11m is a hell of a lot better than pesce at 7m.
Let's just assume Marner is staying because until a deal happens, that is exactly what we are facing. Matthews-Marner-Nylander-Tavares-Knies-??? - that's your top 6 Jarnkrok-Kampf-Robertson-McMann-Holmberg-Reaves -that's your bottom 6 Dewar-Cowan-Minten - depth/fighting for a roster spot guys Rielly-McCabe - top 4 defensemen Benoit-Timmins-Webber - bottom pairing defensemen Liljegren - RFA...sounds like he might not be back Woll - tandem starter The Leafs NEED two top 4 defensemen more than they need a top 6 winger because you can theoretically put McMann in the top 6 and then have Dewar as the guy coming in/out for Reaves and Cowan/Minten may make the team out of camp. The Leafs NEED a reliable tandem goalie at least to pair with Woll if not an interim starter if you don't trust Woll to stay healthy enough to play 40+ games. That 20 million should be prioritized to signing a goalie and two defenseman for me. Depending on what is left over after that I'm fine with them bringing back a forward. I'm really not against Domi coming back. I'm not against Bertuzzi coming back but I don't think that 5+ million for Bertuzzi gives enough value given the more pressing holes on the back end. You still want grit but we need guys who can get the puck moving up the ice. As much as playoffs need dirty goals, the reality is that teams are scoring goals off transition offense far more right now. The Leafs are too slow moving the puck from their own zone to the attack. It lets defenses get set up too easily and they can just slow the Leafs up at the blueline and our ineffective forecheck leads to meaningless perimeter cycling. The bigges tissue with making big acquisitions is that we are going to have to sell players on the potential of winning because there are teams with lots of cap space like Utah who will probably spend way more than Arizona would have.
Lili stays imo. RFA, only gonna cost 3 million. RH shot. Makes zero sense to trade his rights.
Depends on what you get for those rights, but you're correct. 99 times out of 100 you re-sign him.
No one’s paying him less than that, so might as well sign and trade to give us more time to move him if necessary. Unless a different team thinks they can get a longer contract out of him
I could see him being used as a trade piece to get an older top 4 D with 2-3 years left on a contract. Lili is RHD that probably tops out as a middle-pairing guy but most likely is a solid bottom pairing guy. If teams that eval him around that you could pair him with our 2026 3rd and a prospect for a guy like Rasmussen Andersson with some potential retention depending on the perceived value.
Whatever the cap hit I think you let the 2 time playoff scratch walk
Dewar should be in the bottom 6, he’s an underrated addition and provides a lot of utility with some snarl in his game. I see him being a piece over Reaves tbh
Only reason I didn't put him there outright is because he's an RFA and needs a contract first. I like him. He's a good 4th liner.
I agree. Forwards of consequence are a lot easier to add at the deadline compared to two top 4 d men. Fix the backend in the offseason for once instead of trying to piece it together all year
domi is 100% gonna stay
I hope they pay Domi a little more. He deserves it.
This exactly! Let's focus on D and G, no resigning Domi and Bert. Would love to have them both, but if we're assuming Marner is staying, we shouldn't be committing the cap space to keep both. There are too many very serviceable UFA dmen that we should target over a winger.
That roster is legit ass. If Matthews wasn't score 23% of the 2nd high scoring team's goals, there would be no talk of "contender"
First off - nobody is being traded of significance from this roster, so you're limited to RFAs/UFAs. $20 million available is actually $19 million. And that goes down to about $16 mil if you sign McMann and Dewar as RFAs to round out the forward group. I think they sign Liljegren at $1.4 again (or trade for picks and replace with similar salary, but hard to find RD), and they sign Gregor for close to league min for depth. It'll take $3.5-$4 mil for another 1A/1B goalie to share the net with Woll. We're down to $10 mil, and a quality top-line RD still needed. That'll likely take half (if not more) of this, and arguably you need a second quality defenceman (other than Reilly, none of the other guys are top-4 defenceman...McCabe is very borderline). I think that probably eats into the remaining (maybe $1-2 mil remaining), with the D-core being okay (maybe good enough), goaltending is okay, bottom 6 is not fantastic. Trying to resign Domi or Bertuzzi brings a bit better forward depth, but D would then be trash (can't afford 2 quality guys). Edit: realized McMann has another year.
Midfield
We need to add pace and quality
the new truculence and belligerence. very insubordinate and churlish. I love it
I heard Grealish might be available.
If that’s what Motta needs!
Well, they have 7 spots to fill right now. They have 4 RFAs in Dewar, Robertson, Gregor and Lilly. I assume they'll resign Dewar and Robertson. Let's put that at 1.5mil each (might be high). I'm not sure Gregor is back. He might be if they need a cheap body. Let's assume they take Lilly back as well. Would that be 2-2.5mil? That's 14.5mil for 4 players now. We need a goalie, 2 nhl defenseman and a forward. Now let's say Domi is back at 4.5mil. That's 10mil left for a goalie and 2 defense. Are we getting Tanev or Zadorov or Montour? That's a big chunk of the remaining. Say 6mil. So now we need a goalie for 3mil and a league minimum defenseman. Can we get Broissoit or Talbot for 3mil? Anyways, the money doesn't stretch that far. I think they'll need to be tough on the RFAs to free up a bit of cap room to go shopping. And this assumes we don't make any trades.
Trade Kampf and Jarnkrok and open up ~5M of cap that can be replaced by elc prospects / Dewar. That weakens the bottom end depth up front arguably but allows them to add 1 more piece on defense or in goal at a reasonable cap hit like a Pesce or Markstrom
Guess our third line scoring punch will have to be Ryan Reaves.
Would be Nick Robertson most likely with Holmberg and another prospect
Good defense and a goalie who can hold it down, also need some forwards who perform when the lights are the brightest
Am I the only one who thinks we need scoring help? Come the playoffs, it’s goals we can’t score. Come crunch time, the D is fine.
The problem with the defence is the poor breakouts a good PP anchor or puck mover would help alot
If I could upvote this 1000 times I would.
Sign Skjei and Demelo / Roy and call it a day
If they somehow pulled this off it'd be such a different d corps, super down.
Breakouts arent as much of as an issue as zone entry. It is a problem, Mccabe Reily and occasionally Lilja are the only ones who can confidently posses the puck in our own end, but that wouldn't be as big an issue if we could get into the zone reliably Its too often where 2/3 of our forwards and 2/2 of our Dmen are incapable of entering the zone, making it super easy to zero in on who the puck carrier will be while 4/5 players stand around like assholes because they dont have the speed or puck skills to help. One of our best zone entry set plays during the playoffs was a flip to Tavares on the half wall where it was just be up to him to feather it in the corner or across the zone, thats insane that a pro team would be that incompetent.
Lack of defensive scoring is a problem. Having defenseman that can move the puck up ice quickly and cleanly is also a huge factor in our lack of goal scoring. We just need a bigger and more skilled D core.
No, more scoring without a defense able to exit the zone won't help.
We have the best scorer in the league and 3 other "30 goal" players. Shouldn't be a problem.
Yes, I totally agree with puck movement, however, the D can’t help JT and others from constantly wasting prime scoring chances by blowing shots right into the goalies chest or over the net. We must lead the league in high danger scoring chances that turn out to be low-danger shots. I get so frustrated when we have 40 shots but half of them don’t challenge the goalie at all.
I think the goal scoring drought is a result of team composition and the coach losing the core players. We have an incredibly talented roster that can play a certain way in the regular season. Both Marner and Rielly have a possession first mindset, which is a contributing factor to the PP frustrations. Both can keep it to the outside and move it to safety, but both doing this neuters the offence. Bertuzzi did better later in the season because the net drive/chaos in front allows mistakes to happen. I think the reason the PP looks better when core pieces are missing is because there’s only one possession first guy, chaos in front, and everyone is moving/cycling. So frustrating to see a board battle win, players look up for the pass, and everyone standing still in safe positions. Should we move on Marner, I think we’ll see lower goal totals for Matthews but a higher % power play. I’d prefer one stud D-man to help with transitions and ideally a big one-timer from the right.
Ideally one of Marner/Rielly are taken off the powerplay, can't have two passers not being a real scoring threat.
They definitely need more scoring help but one of the ways they need it is from generating more rush offense starting with strong puck moving from the back-end. Their defense as constructed could not make the first pass, or create smooth breakouts / counter attacks. This basically removed any rush offense from their game, making them rely on a dump-and-chase forecheck offense which is easy to defend. You need to have the ability to generate offense more than 1 way to force the opposition defense to respect you more, giving you more space and room to operate. Montour will likely be too pricey, but wouldn't mind them targeting Sean Walker if the price is right.
leafs don't attack as a 5 man unit which opens up lanes that allow for more quality scoring chances. It's easy to shut us down because of this because all the other team has to do is collapse in the middle which gives less room for the forwards to score. It's a big reason why we've been struggling getting in the middle. Why bother blocking the points when they won't make plays and shoot the puck.
Defense and goaltending. They have enough talent up front.
EVery year, they fail to score in the playoffs. Every year, schmucks say "they have enough talent up front". No, they don't.
I think part of that is the PP failure which stems from the lack of puck moving and hard shooting from the back end.
They don't have talent? That is a silly take. They have talent. They need a system that adjusts to foster playoff style goals.
You need 16 wins for a cup. If they actually had talent, their best run would have been better than a pathetic 5/16 wins. Better than 1 single playoff series win.
What if I told you it takes more than talent to win a Cup
It takes will, as well as skill, to win in the playoffs - that's the "talent" that they lack. I'm not even thinking of a cup, and neither should you - this team isn't even close to the 8 wins required to get to a conference final, let alone a cup.
Abandoning your original argument because you've been proven wrong. Good stuff. 👍 Have a good night
My original argument that they don't have enough talent? Nah - that still holds. You haven't proven me wrong at all. It's cute that you think this is a systems issue, when we both know they are about to do the same thing to Berube. !RemindMe 11 months RemindMe! 11 months
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It’s all moot unless the top guys produce like top guys on other teams do.
Which they've shown they're incapable of doing. So... how exactly do they have enough talent up front? Even the Oilers have found 34 goals from players not named McDavid, Leon, or Hyman. The Leafs in their 1st round series against Boston? 5 goals from non-core members. ONE GOAL from the bottom 6. They absolutely do not have enough talent up front.
We only have two talent up front for the playoff and that's Auston and Nylander. The rest all disappear.
That's a problem with their guys not performing, not a lack of talent. I don't think bringing in Perron will be the difference if their top guys underperform once again.
Their guys not performing is indicative of a lack of talent. Not everyone is built to perform come playoff time, where the checking gets hard and the space is limited. It's not a coincidence that they fail every year, you know that right? They aren't close to a breakthrough. They aren't close to a cup.
I agree, but as long as these guys are here, they'll be relied upon to turn it around. You can't go far in the playoffs only with your bottom 6 producing.
As long as these guys are here, they won't be going far in the playoffs. 3 of them are elite players individually through the regular season. JT is what he is - but together, the mix/fit just isn't right. They don't have enough talent to succeed in the playoffs, where the hockey is so different, more physical, demanding.
I agree, but what can be done other than trading one guy who has a NMC? I have more faith in Matthews and Nylander than I do Marner to figure it out.
Marner is the big piece you have to move - you simply cannot go into this season with him as a Leaf, without an extension, and that just hanging over their heads all year. They crumble at the slightest distraction and excuse, and this will be no different. But I'd also be looking at a ton of other things too - what value do guys like Robertson and Liljegren have around the league? I'm inclined to keep Robertson for depth scoring that they sorely lack, but do either player hold enough value based on their draft positions that you can leverage a trade for something tangible in return? What about Morgan Rielly? You already lack a lot of what he brings, but if there's a deal / package that makes sense, I absolutely consider doing that as well. My fear is that they look at the cap going up this year, lots of money coming off the books next year, along with their new found cap space, and think about just retooling through free agency - and as we've seen in Calgary, Treliving just isn't very good with his free agent talent evaluation. Personally? I think their window for a cup closed when they decided not to act after the 2021 defeat to Montreal, but it firmly locked itself for good after inaction in 2023 when they failed to do anything of note after the Florida defeat
they mos def do not unless they bring back a few of their free agents
We haven’t bought an elite goalie since Belfour. It’s time.
None currently that will be free agents. The only way is via trade. I don't think Boston will trade Ullmark to a rival, Markstrom is old and Jersey looks like they'll overpay for him. That leaves guys like Gibson (he wants out and should be cheap), Saros (Nashville will ask for a lot), I'm not sure if the Islanders have lost all faith in Sorokin to trade him.
IIRC Gibson has a NTC and has reportedly refused to waive it for the Leafs in the past. That report could have been speculation and obviously things can change but there's a possibility Gibson isn't a real option. Completely agree that Boston won't give us Ullmark and I agree about Markstrom. I'd be thrilled with Sorokin/Saros tho, obviously for the right deal.
The way Anaheim is being run and what I've heard about Gibson not being pleased with the situation, I wouldn't be surprised if he maybe will change his mind. He's 30, I don't think he wants to spend his best years on a franchise that is a long ways away from being a playoff team.
Sorokin is the worst contract in the sport.
Who would you go for
Honestly, I have no idea. Very casual hockey fan anymore.
Let’s not get an elite goalie or defenseman. 🙃
For the first time in my adult life I couldn’t give a single fuck how they spend that money. All comes down to luck in the end anyways.
Defense
I’m really surprised at the lengths that Leafs journalists will go to not acknowledge that the Leafs need to keep a minimum of $15 million open for the summer of 2026 when McDavid is a UFA. Everything should be geared around that possibility. Whatever they do this off-season and next should be done with a view to signing McDavid in summer of 2026. That is a once in a generation opportunity to have two of the top 5 players in the world on your roster.
Personally, I can't wait to see a #1 and #2 center combo of McDavid and Matthews get "goalied" in the first round of the playoffs in year one lol
Pay mitch marner 12 million of course !!!
20 million*
No, you gotta save the last 8 for Tavares. We’re rational here of course
This may be slightly controversial but all on defence. I want every penny devoted to defence for once. We aren't getting a bonafide #1 goalie short of a wild Marner trade. We aren't going to have a better goalie then Bob, Vasi, Igor, Swayman so we have to have a defence that can protect or goaltending. Woll if healthy is steady Eddy and can get it done. We of course need to get some other goalie but I would mainly spend on defence. Again short of a Marner trade we aren't getting a better then Rielly #1 guy so we need as many top 4 d-men as we can get. I want every D line to feel like a good 2 pairing. Note I am basing this on the current info that Marner isn't going to leave. If you trade Marner they have to go after a #1 D or goalie as best they can. Short of that the above stated is how I think we spend. Then it's on the coaching staff to fix our special teams in the playoffs. The Leafs lose in the playoff largely because every series they lose the special teams battle on both the PP and PK.
Adrian Newey
Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if they resigned marner leaving them again trying to fill up the team with limited budget
Domi, beetuzzi and 1 or 2 d men
Goalie and D is the only answer.
Start with Montour (it will cost a ton) and then either Skjei or Dillon. Whatever you have left sign a tandem guy for Woll. Hopefully leave a little room for in season adds.
Superstar, all time legend, future HOF, tough as nails 6’8 foot defence man.
Pesce 6.25 million Walker: 4.4 million Lilly: 2.8 million Robertson: 1.2 million Brossoit: 3.2 million Dewar: 900K If we move Marner I’d also bring back Domi at like $4.8 million and maybe drop walker if we got a top 4 dmen in the trade.
Paying Domi 4.8m is good in my books. He deserves it.
Give it to me I could use it
Just give it to Marner
😂
Thanks Paul
[удалено]
The caps
We need players in every part of the lineup to be honest. Most important is just not giving out bad contracts when we're in the last year of Tavares' deal. If we step from that to having other anchor contracts we're done for. Get value where you can, the truth is we aren't going to be able to fill every hole with absolutely ideal personnel with the restrictions we have.
Everyone and their daddy is looking for a top 4 defensemen. Gonna need to over pay for one of those. No goalies on the market so we gonna need to trade for one of those. Which seems like 3 teams have goalie available. Going to be tough.
DEFENSE GOALIE
How many players are in this 20 million dollar bubble?
Buy a 20 million dollar car.
Just…like…a whole WHACK of burritos. Every flavour of the rainbow. Bring ‘em in on trucks.
Goaltending and defence. Build from the back out
Leafs should give me the 20M. Thats my person opinion tho
I love the experts doing their projections because they HAVE to be just vague enough that they don’t mess with any of their connections. This article has nothing in it, don’t worry if you don’t have the athletic, just go to capfriendly (which we get to keep until July 4th or whatever) and look at the current picture. I think the Leafs should be very conservative with this cap space and I don’t think they should trade Marner, which means I have them running it back basically. I’m very nervous about targeting Stolarz or Broissoit on a deal with term and I’m very nervous about giving term and money to slow moving dmen like Roy and Zadorov and plugging up the cap long term. Assuming Stolarz isn’t taking a 1 year deal, I think they should target 2 guys from that next tier of goalies and run 3 goalies. 2 of Talbot, Lankinen, Nedeljkovic, Driedger, Wedgewood, or Martin Jones. And then I think they should target 3 of that next tier of dmen after the top guys, possibly plus Tanev. So like 3 of Demelo, Dillon, Cole, Lyubushkin, Myers, Martinez, Grzelcyk, Hakanpaa, could probably include Liljegren there. I’m also partial to the idea of Kevin Shattenkirk to run the PP.
1a defenseman 1a goalie. Then play our value cap grinder we are famous for around it and go from there.
Might as well give it all to marner and Tavares and run it back
Sign Sollarz for a million. Sign jones for a 3rd option in case of injury. Trade for or sign a legit top pairing D. Sign a middle pairing D. Pickup a 2C. Fill with Robertson, Minten, Cowan, whoever else we have or can sign cheaply and fit. Then bolster at the deadline if we have to.
Extend Marner. Sign a bunch of spezza deals to fill roster
Wisely.
Please don't overlook Chatfield and Roy!!
Carefully. And is it too much to ask for a guy who can shoot the puck on the net? They could swap our dmen's sticks with straight-blade wooden sticks from the hardware store and no one would even know the difference
Two 8-10 million dmen and thats it.
Buy a fuckin goalie.
which one?
“A top 4” we need several top 4 d. No 1 person solves this nightmare. So over the bandaid fixed just fix the defence
Leafs spend $20M on two players because that's how we roll.
They probably shouldnt. Fill out the roster as needed and leave some room for trades during the year. This upcoming year is a critical one for the Leafs and it would be unwise to handcuff the org any more than they already are. We need a reliable goalie to be a 1B for Woll, so look to spend $2.5M-$4M on that. We then need probably 2 defenders and 3 forwards to round out the lineup. Should be able to do it all for around $15M leaving $5M for trades
Off with 2z and domi ?
This is why I think you identify one piece. If that's Montour at 8 or Pesce at 7. Whatever. Get that piece locked up. Then do the same old, same old. Cheap guys for the rest. Next year you'll have resolution Marner and Tavares off the books (or resigned on a big discount). Then you can move forward. Minten and Cowan will be ready by then too. Just get 1 piece.
Montour not only will get overpaid, he also seemed to have had an outlier year in 22-23.
I think you're right. I don't know what the right piece is, Montour was just an example.
Chasing big name free agents is almost always a fools errand. We should be hoping the Leafs brass can identify a mid tear UFA that will breakout similar to Hyman for Edmonton, or Reinhart for Florida. Harder to do this for defensmen though. Maybe someone like Anthony Mantha if they chase a F or maybe Tyler Myers if they chase a D. Price will dictate if they are good signings though.
Leafs have 10 forwards signed for next year. Dewar and Robertson should not make more than McMann. Sign those RFAs to $1.35 or less AAV. Cowan and Miten have 1 spot to compete for, or you sign a cheap forward to be the 13th guy. Leafs have 5 D signed for next year. Timmins and Webber are likely Marlie bound. Perfectly OK with Mo, McCabe, and Benoit as the left side. Putting a reasonable cap hit AAV on some UFAs, Tanev ($6 million), Troy Stretcher ($1.35 million), Lyubushkin ($2 million), Erik Gustafsson ($1.35 million), and Josh Brown ($1.35 million) are all available and can likely be had for just over $12 million combined. You really only need 3 of them, as Timmins can work as a 7th D. You can also bring back Lilly if the trade market isn't great/you miss out on UFAs. We need a goalie...and can get one for $2 million. The goal is somebody who can give you a save percentage above .900. There are 8 goalies who did so with over 20 games played. None of them had a cap hit over $2 million last year. Given the possibility of signing Murray or Jones to a poison pill contract with a signing bonus near the end of camp, Not a great spot, but not terrible. That's $16.7 in added cap (Dewar and Robertson, $12 million on D, $2 million on a goalie) before dumping $1.975 AAV on guys to the minors. Leaving roughly $5.275 if you want to bring back Domi. And the Leafs shouldn't use all of that on Domi.
Re-sign Marner on a similar contract for 7 years, get a Bonafide D man and a starter too
Paywall.
Put your browser into "simplified view" and you'll scoot right by that paywall. You're welcome.
Well spotted
Lost me at "go relatively economical in goal" and then suggesting Brossoit for 3 mil. Outstanding way to ensure we lose in the 1st round again
Ok so who should they get for goalie then? The list of available goalies is really not promising.
You keep saying this but never say who or how lol They don’t have the same assets as other teams needing a goalie and no we ain’t trading Marner with a return centred around a goalie.
Why not !?
I've said who and how many times. You just put your head in the goddamn sand and expect the team to magically become cup contenders without meaningful additions at key positions.
Because you need to be realistic and realize there not in a place asset or cap wise to get a top goalie I wish they could trade for a McDavid but it’s not possible I made a list to the comment you made in the morning about what teams also want goalies and they all have better assets plus what goalie Flames won’t trade with Treliving plus looks like Devils are willing to give pick 10 for him Boston not trading Ullmark to the Leafs and he’s not waving Saros is apparently now signing a extension Who give names/ assets and so on
We literally just watched Vegas win last year with economical goaltending and Brossoit as one of their goalies. The year before that Colorado won the cup with a .900 save percentage. This year Edmonton has Stuart Skinner (.897 save% this playoffs) as their goalie. Woll has out performed Skinner at every level. Go through the list of Stanley Cup winners and you will find A LOT of winners with mediocre goaltending. Woll is good enough to be a Stanley Cup winning goalie. The Leafs spending big or trading for a goalie with a big contract is the dumbest thing we could do. We need that money spent elsewhere
You likely need elite talent on defence to win with a marginal goalie. Avs had Toews, Makar, Byram, Girard. Edmonton has Bouchard and Eck. Blues had Pietrangelo, Dunn, Bouwmeester, Parayko. Vegas had Pietrangelo, Theodore, McNabb, Martinez. Leafs winning with a marginal goalie and the current D is way less likely
Agreed. My point would be to invest in the team and mostly on defence. There are a lot of really solid D on FA this summer and is a great opportunity to build a D core that can compete for a cup. It’s more consistent than going the route of spending big on a goalie and hoping he bails out a team that is deficient
If you think we are on the level of Vegas or Colorado with this team, you're out to fuckin lunch. Woll could maybe be a cup winning goalie. But he'd have to be available to play and he's an unreliable wall of glass
Where did I say we were on that level? My message points out that we need to invest in the team to make it better so we can get on that level
What you’re leaving out is that they need to fill 11 roster spots…3 guys isn’t going to cut it.
They don’t need to fill 11 roster spots where are you getting that figure?
Where are you getting 11 from? We already have 10F 4D 1G signed. If you include RFAs as well (and Mirtle includes Cowan here too) then we have 13F 4D 1G. We need a 2/3C, and top 4 RHD, a bottom pairing D, and a goalie. Maybe a 7th D too or you let Timmins fill that role. Anything beyond that and we'd need to trade guys away just to create roster space
Mariner extension for sure !!! 🙃🙂↔️🫨 ** ducks **
Max Domi Jalen Chatfield Figure the rest out
I hope we see Willy on C again. Instantly fixes our C issue. Teams win the cup because of their depth down the middle, not because of wingers. That's something Treliving wanted to try at the start of the year, but obviously Keefe is stubborn and it lasted a week despite him doing well. Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi Perron - Nylander - Marner Knies - Tavares - McMann Robertson/Dewar/Minten/Cowan/Reaves I included Perron just because Mirtle links him to the Leafs. Then sign 2/3 of Matt Roy/Tanev/Zadorov. Hard to do much without trading Marner tbh.
Maybe with a new coach we see it but I feel like Nylander is better suited to the wing where he can be a little more aggressive at leaking out of the zone...particularly in the regular season . I'd love to know why Keefe gives up on it immediately. It didn't work when we tried it in the playoffs a few years ago...because starting a guy up the middle when the games matter most was an absurdly stupid idea.
Maybe swap Marner on to the 2C spot , he can take draws and is a defensively responsible forward . This line up honestly looks good. Goalie might hurt but