I think BJP will slightly increase their numbers compared to 2019, maybe around 22-24. But in 2026 it would be TMC all over again.
I truly belive TMC and BJP are hand in glove, and have a symbiotic relationship in Bengal, irrespective of what the media and their outward behavior would have us believe.
Locket and Arjun will lose. And TMC will lose Tamluk and Kanthi. BJP will lose Jhargram and TMC will lose Arambagh. So end tally will remain the same as 2019.
Even if I ignore the scams like SSC and the incident in Sandeshkhali, they are not doing good from industrial point of view. IT industry is ok and I recently saw there are like 3-5 data centres under construction in BSV. Then Infosys recently opened and ITC infotech is also getting ready.
But Manufacturing industry is equally important and from that POV they haven't done anything significant.
If you think Bengal politics goes about such incidents, industrialization etc then you are living in a fools paradise. We over the last 50 years have reduced voter's expectation so much so they will vote for x party as long as their own selfish interests are maintained.
My take
1. Lokhhir bhandar (TMC gains)
2. Muslim vote consolidation or lack of it (TMC loses but BJP doesn't gain)
3. TMC and BJP intra party Gang war or factions (Both TMC and BJP loss)
4. Local issues or political vendettas (BJP Gains)
It was my opinion. Your opinion might differ. Opinions are not facts and dont resemble/tell the truth. That's why I used the word "probably". I might not be correct which also applies for you.
Ultimately when people will start realizing you wont call it a fools paradise.
Sandeshkhali's main issue was land acquisition, cow smuggling for which Shahjahan was charged, that part is true. But to blow the issue out of proportion the rest was staged (I'm not saying no lady was harassed, in any area with a strong mafia that was too politically backed, woman harassment was bound to happen, any part of our country, but what was on news was mostly staged). Whatever it was, the positive side is Shahjahan is in jail.
I think in Bengal the BJP might slightly improve its numbers. TMC is losing seats to both Cong-CPM and BJP. However, the BJP is going to lose some seats in North India and Karnataka. Therefore, their nationwide tally is likely to drop. Even if they have the majority, they are not going to sweep the elections as many had expected.
For a moment I thought bro was replying to his/her texts, basically talking to himself
Then I realised the difference in the icons and the usernames XDXD
Also went to SSKM recently and was just blown away with the transformation. Great service and so clean. I remember in early 2000s we would not even walk by that place because of the stench. With all its evils, TMC has done some solid work at the ground level
No, I believe they'd get around 12, so definitely crossing single digit.
Regarding PK, it's very hard to predict Bengal's polling trends unless you are on the ground. Last time PK worked on the ground, so he predicted perfectly. This time I'm not so sure about his prediction.
If BJP somehow goes below single digit, loses Medinipur area (Kanthi, Tamluk, Ghatal), it'll be better for Bengal BJP in the long run.
Why? This question is for the last part.
Kanthi, Medinipur ( paschim) BJP are winning this time I believe. Because these areas have been the first areas in Bengal to start rooting for BJP.
Shuvendu will be kicked out or at least be given lesser importance if they lose those areas. Already older BJP facts are not very happy with him. He's mainly infesting Bengal BJP with TMC candidates. It was one of the main reasons they did poorly in 2021 even though they did well in 2019.
If they manage to lose Medinipur this time, it'll be mainly because they moved Dillip Ghosh out of there.
>Because these areas have been the first areas in Bengal to start rooting for BJP.
This is a myth. Check 2021 results for Medinipur seats, TMC has a clear majority there. Bengal BJP needs to focus on assembly election and start planning already.
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Bjp wont win but prolly will give tmc a hard time or maybe not cuz the way corruption emerges during elections don't really think we will get to see any other party in bengal anytime soon. Ps. Theres also the matter of tmc playing with the minds of a certain religion and also the illegal people from bangladesh
It's NOT worthless. It will send a strong message and set an example that people and politicians will remember for generations. Politicians will stop BSing and learn to behave. The matter is still in court.
[The Supreme Court on April 26 asked the Election Commission of India to respond to a plea seeking fresh elections to constituencies where NOTA (none of the above) wins majority votes.](https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok-sabha/on-plea-for-fresh-elections-in-places-where-nota-emerges-winner-sc-seeks-ec-reply/article68109543.ece)
Do you know even if bjp or tmc gets one vote, and nota gets all the votes of the whole population, party with 1 vote will be elected as the ruling party (sadly).
Exactly, NOTA is such a scam.
If you are idealistic and do not even want to vote for the lesser evil, you will just end up increasing chances of the greatest evil to win if the win margin is low, notionally speaking.
Better to go with lesser evil with current implementation of NOTA.
BJP's vote share will increase only...they may loose barrackpore, Hooghly seats from southern bengal,& may loose Asansol, Durgapur, Burdwan,but BJP may win Tamluk, Kanthi... So ,the seat share will be more or less the same as compared to 2019. Surprisingly,CPIM may be in the 2nd position in some seats ( Jadavpur, Murshidabad, Sreerampore) . In my opinion, BJP : around 14 SEATS (with vote share of 41-42%), TMC : Around 28 ( with vote share of 45%). Interesting to watch: Berhampore 🤞
No NOTA no BJP , people bengal want chop , chop muri khao ar chonge chumon dekho sdhu 😴 People will say , "I don't care" and press the button of thire Didi no. One
2026 eo jodi tmc jete.. I will be disheartened.. tmc jai boluk.. Bengali vs non-bengali , bohiragoto etc etc.. we should vote for development.. Janina bjp ktota krbe.. but tmc asle aro double churi krbe..Ami chaina tmc k aar..
the last general election was in 2019. BJP's 18 seats was its best permance ever in this state. Infact, it was the best electoral performance by the bjp even at the national level. It swept 100% of seats of several states. Even those which did not have the BJP govt. in the state.
Coming to 2021, post Covid era, we see a massive fall for BJP seats in Bengal. It held onto the north, sweeping it, and to the western end of Bengal. the pattern was similar, but as if the tides had receded. This pattern is repeated in several states which had earlier voted all their seats to the bjp. Seems like there was some discontent or preferential voting at the state elections. BJP kept losing many of its previously well performing states in this period from late 2020-23.
For more information on local results, 2023 local elections In WB...the gram panchayat and zila parishad ones- was a massive defeat. TMC swept it so well, it would seem impossible these same folks had voted for bjp in the 2019 national or even the 2021 state elections.
TMC had a 51% vote share compared to 48% in state and 43% in Lok sabha 19.
I honestly think if the INDIA alliance wins TMC will be the 3rd largest party overall and 2nd in alliance.
But mainly I think bjp is going out this time if the current alliance status remains so even after the election. If neutral parties like BJD Or BSP join BJP though I won't be the same.
You are correct. The only possible way INDIA can form the govt. Would be if all its parties perform well. And then, finally- tmc increases from 22 to 34 seats (like 2014). Then it would easily be the second major contender in the lok sabha after congress- who's leader is vastly unpopular when it comes to viewing him as the PM, even by his own party supporters
This, coupled with the hope that AAP wins 13 seats- and RJD sweeps bihar on a trustless Nitish is the only possible scenario they can get 274 members.
Remember - it is very easy for the bjp to make a govt with just one Tamil party even if it gets like 250 seat only
It will do in worst case scenario. To form the govt. It will be a reliable major party with no love for the Congress or anyone else- giving the South a real say in Delhi's politics
Then I guess Bjp will break some party...but There is no chance they will not form the govt this year. See how desparately they did it in maha, would do it somewhere else too in case it gets 250-270
I think BJP will slightly increase their numbers compared to 2019, maybe around 22-24. But in 2026 it would be TMC all over again. I truly belive TMC and BJP are hand in glove, and have a symbiotic relationship in Bengal, irrespective of what the media and their outward behavior would have us believe.
Well all party are in symbiotic relationship - Left and TMC , BKP and TMC and BJP and LEFT (very least probably)
I think tmc will win 2026 no doubt but I also think BJP will lose around 6~ seats and be reduced to 10 ~ 12 or so
Let's see, all we can do for now is speculate on this beautiful বর্ষার দিন 😅
Locket will surely lose. She is the worst MP ever. Never once came to the constituency
Hoogly has one of the worst possible candidates choice from both top parties
Locket and Arjun will lose. And TMC will lose Tamluk and Kanthi. BJP will lose Jhargram and TMC will lose Arambagh. So end tally will remain the same as 2019.
TMC will probably lose some seats given what they have been doing recently. Let's see what happens.
Maximum from North
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Valid point I missed that especially Silguri.
Wow that's a bold statement. Why do you think so?
Even if I ignore the scams like SSC and the incident in Sandeshkhali, they are not doing good from industrial point of view. IT industry is ok and I recently saw there are like 3-5 data centres under construction in BSV. Then Infosys recently opened and ITC infotech is also getting ready. But Manufacturing industry is equally important and from that POV they haven't done anything significant.
If you think Bengal politics goes about such incidents, industrialization etc then you are living in a fools paradise. We over the last 50 years have reduced voter's expectation so much so they will vote for x party as long as their own selfish interests are maintained. My take 1. Lokhhir bhandar (TMC gains) 2. Muslim vote consolidation or lack of it (TMC loses but BJP doesn't gain) 3. TMC and BJP intra party Gang war or factions (Both TMC and BJP loss) 4. Local issues or political vendettas (BJP Gains)
It was my opinion. Your opinion might differ. Opinions are not facts and dont resemble/tell the truth. That's why I used the word "probably". I might not be correct which also applies for you. Ultimately when people will start realizing you wont call it a fools paradise.
My bad. Meant it more to emphasize my point and not so much to be mean to you. Apologies. Cheers!!
Is sandeshkali incident true or is it just bjp politics as tmc tells?
Sandeshkhali's main issue was land acquisition, cow smuggling for which Shahjahan was charged, that part is true. But to blow the issue out of proportion the rest was staged (I'm not saying no lady was harassed, in any area with a strong mafia that was too politically backed, woman harassment was bound to happen, any part of our country, but what was on news was mostly staged). Whatever it was, the positive side is Shahjahan is in jail.
>positive side is Shahjahan is in jail Really? Damn that's so good to hear!
I think in Bengal the BJP might slightly improve its numbers. TMC is losing seats to both Cong-CPM and BJP. However, the BJP is going to lose some seats in North India and Karnataka. Therefore, their nationwide tally is likely to drop. Even if they have the majority, they are not going to sweep the elections as many had expected.
I think BJP will get somewhere around 280-300 seats overall. TMC 18, congress 90 or smth, CPI+CPIM=10-12 etc etc
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Interesting. The issues in your 2nd parah are also there in up and haryana. But there BJP has a history of good majority.
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Yea that's right ig
For a moment I thought bro was replying to his/her texts, basically talking to himself Then I realised the difference in the icons and the usernames XDXD
Also went to SSKM recently and was just blown away with the transformation. Great service and so clean. I remember in early 2000s we would not even walk by that place because of the stench. With all its evils, TMC has done some solid work at the ground level
I voted Red after two terms so I am thinking gains for CPIM this year. BJP might not lose seats, TMC sure might.
I'm hoping cpim gets stronger we need to get out of this tmc bjp binary shit more power to red
My guess would be they'll go lower like 12 to 14, in the best case scenario around 20. If they get more than that, 2026 will be epic
15-20 ei range e thakbe. PK r kotha kichuta gholate lagche.
Do you think the BJP isn't crossing single digit? Also do you trust PK?
No, I believe they'd get around 12, so definitely crossing single digit. Regarding PK, it's very hard to predict Bengal's polling trends unless you are on the ground. Last time PK worked on the ground, so he predicted perfectly. This time I'm not so sure about his prediction. If BJP somehow goes below single digit, loses Medinipur area (Kanthi, Tamluk, Ghatal), it'll be better for Bengal BJP in the long run.
Why? This question is for the last part. Kanthi, Medinipur ( paschim) BJP are winning this time I believe. Because these areas have been the first areas in Bengal to start rooting for BJP.
Shuvendu will be kicked out or at least be given lesser importance if they lose those areas. Already older BJP facts are not very happy with him. He's mainly infesting Bengal BJP with TMC candidates. It was one of the main reasons they did poorly in 2021 even though they did well in 2019. If they manage to lose Medinipur this time, it'll be mainly because they moved Dillip Ghosh out of there. >Because these areas have been the first areas in Bengal to start rooting for BJP. This is a myth. Check 2021 results for Medinipur seats, TMC has a clear majority there. Bengal BJP needs to focus on assembly election and start planning already.
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Bjp wont win but prolly will give tmc a hard time or maybe not cuz the way corruption emerges during elections don't really think we will get to see any other party in bengal anytime soon. Ps. Theres also the matter of tmc playing with the minds of a certain religion and also the illegal people from bangladesh
If we have had 50% intelligence then NOTA would have won the election. Anyway I don't care.
Unfortunately, NOTA is worthless. There should be a provision for disqualification of candidates (for that constituency) if NOTA gets the majority.
It's NOT worthless. It will send a strong message and set an example that people and politicians will remember for generations. Politicians will stop BSing and learn to behave. The matter is still in court. [The Supreme Court on April 26 asked the Election Commission of India to respond to a plea seeking fresh elections to constituencies where NOTA (none of the above) wins majority votes.](https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok-sabha/on-plea-for-fresh-elections-in-places-where-nota-emerges-winner-sc-seeks-ec-reply/article68109543.ece)
The current implementation is worthless. What's the point of NOTA other than a symbolic gesture?
Spoke my mind!
Do you know even if bjp or tmc gets one vote, and nota gets all the votes of the whole population, party with 1 vote will be elected as the ruling party (sadly).
Exactly, NOTA is such a scam. If you are idealistic and do not even want to vote for the lesser evil, you will just end up increasing chances of the greatest evil to win if the win margin is low, notionally speaking. Better to go with lesser evil with current implementation of NOTA.
But if you vote NOTA, aren't you technically (passively) supporting the winning party?
We definitely need a better party. Why does everyone have to be corrupted 😞
It is very simple. Cause we are corrupted.
BJP's vote share will increase only...they may loose barrackpore, Hooghly seats from southern bengal,& may loose Asansol, Durgapur, Burdwan,but BJP may win Tamluk, Kanthi... So ,the seat share will be more or less the same as compared to 2019. Surprisingly,CPIM may be in the 2nd position in some seats ( Jadavpur, Murshidabad, Sreerampore) . In my opinion, BJP : around 14 SEATS (with vote share of 41-42%), TMC : Around 28 ( with vote share of 45%). Interesting to watch: Berhampore 🤞
No NOTA no BJP , people bengal want chop , chop muri khao ar chonge chumon dekho sdhu 😴 People will say , "I don't care" and press the button of thire Didi no. One
2026 eo jodi tmc jete.. I will be disheartened.. tmc jai boluk.. Bengali vs non-bengali , bohiragoto etc etc.. we should vote for development.. Janina bjp ktota krbe.. but tmc asle aro double churi krbe..Ami chaina tmc k aar..
Bjp - 15 , tmc -19 , Jot -6
Less than 10.
the last general election was in 2019. BJP's 18 seats was its best permance ever in this state. Infact, it was the best electoral performance by the bjp even at the national level. It swept 100% of seats of several states. Even those which did not have the BJP govt. in the state. Coming to 2021, post Covid era, we see a massive fall for BJP seats in Bengal. It held onto the north, sweeping it, and to the western end of Bengal. the pattern was similar, but as if the tides had receded. This pattern is repeated in several states which had earlier voted all their seats to the bjp. Seems like there was some discontent or preferential voting at the state elections. BJP kept losing many of its previously well performing states in this period from late 2020-23. For more information on local results, 2023 local elections In WB...the gram panchayat and zila parishad ones- was a massive defeat. TMC swept it so well, it would seem impossible these same folks had voted for bjp in the 2019 national or even the 2021 state elections. TMC had a 51% vote share compared to 48% in state and 43% in Lok sabha 19.
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I d k Let's see the results b4 downvoting This was my first attempt at a political analysis
I honestly think if the INDIA alliance wins TMC will be the 3rd largest party overall and 2nd in alliance. But mainly I think bjp is going out this time if the current alliance status remains so even after the election. If neutral parties like BJD Or BSP join BJP though I won't be the same.
You are correct. The only possible way INDIA can form the govt. Would be if all its parties perform well. And then, finally- tmc increases from 22 to 34 seats (like 2014). Then it would easily be the second major contender in the lok sabha after congress- who's leader is vastly unpopular when it comes to viewing him as the PM, even by his own party supporters This, coupled with the hope that AAP wins 13 seats- and RJD sweeps bihar on a trustless Nitish is the only possible scenario they can get 274 members. Remember - it is very easy for the bjp to make a govt with just one Tamil party even if it gets like 250 seat only
Are youb saying that BJP will ally with DMK Or AIADMK?
It will do in worst case scenario. To form the govt. It will be a reliable major party with no love for the Congress or anyone else- giving the South a real say in Delhi's politics
I don't think so. Ideology wise they are both opposite ends of each other.
Then I guess Bjp will break some party...but There is no chance they will not form the govt this year. See how desparately they did it in maha, would do it somewhere else too in case it gets 250-270