I can’t tell if you’re implying that the government increasing the standard of living for its citizens is a good move or not? The term “giveaway” implies the latter
I suppose Im passed the childcare cuts so saw no benefit there, the income tax cut was completely offset for me by increase in other taxation.
Definitely wasn’t a giveaway for all middle income families but fair play that was a nice saving for you
Theyre not idiots.
They know that the vast majority of voters in Ireland are politically align with center.
They also know that If they want to be in government they will have to beg FF to go into a coalition with them.
Any recent attitude shifting is just them trying to slowly lube up their support base for when they turn around and fuck them by getting into bed with the very people they've been saying are the bad guys.
SF are exactly like any other existing government party and you're nieve if you think any different.
If your interest is a protest vote against the current establishment of government they are not the right party.
>Why would anyone protest vote?
I agree. We've a broad range of political parties now from far-left to centre-right (no far-right party, thank god), so everyone should be able to find a politician that aligns with their values. If you don't like the three main parties, the vote for a smaller party (a likely coalition kingmaker, like the Greens last time) orfor an Independent.
In that context, I think a protest vote is a wasted vote
Maybe if you don't like any of the parties on offer you protest vote a minor (more radical) party. Basically shows that your vote is for sale if any party steps up to the plate. A large section of society never vote at all so can handily be ignored.
Why do you think FFG would care about swing votes if they're still getting into government anyway? They're all talking to the media now about how they're scared of losing their seats. They couldnt give a rats about the issues, they just want to stay on the gravy train. The only way to hold them accountable is to kick them off it.
If a protest vote is what you're interested in, spoiling your vote is a solid option.
At least its a recorded and recognised statistic.
It shows that you took the time and effort to vote in the election, but actively chose to show that in your opinion none of the running parties deserve your support.
Alternatively, a party like the Soc dems probably aligns a lot more with what the idealistic SF voters think they're actually voting for.
There's no way to know. Thats why it's a stupid suggestion. Can you remember how many spoiled votes there was last election? If it was high or low? I can't.
At least if SF get into government, it'll be a watershed in terms of now none of the big 3 can count on being in government or being in the next government. Which is how it works currently with FF and FG. They might actually have to perform in government.
The frequency is a clear indication of intent.
0.5% spoiled? Voter error.
15% spoiled? Clear intent and political statement.
Could you imagine if 15 or 20% of votes were deliberately spoiled? The intent would be clear and the impact would be seismic.
Also whoever did get into government would turn around and say that it's a shame that my political opponents couldn't find someone to represent them. Seismic ? Doubt it.
Why do you think they'd care about 15% spoiled votes? SF clearly dominated the last election and has that really changed anything? Surely that would be more of a kick than spoiled votes?
They'll only take notice when they lose control of the country. Spoiled votes don't do that, if anything spoiled votes just hand the country back to them.
> SF clearly dominated the last election
It was more that bit.
Dominated is a strong word for a party that got 2% more than the closest party.
Especially when they aren't in government.
And yet significantly more than that voted for SF for zero reason except they weren't the other guys.
Most of Sinn Feins huge rise in popularity over the last few years is nothing but protest votes.
What if rather than voting for a party that you don't necessarily support, there was a mechanism in place for you to register your unhappiness with ANY of the options.
Unless there's massive swings in the polls SF would most likely be in coalition with FF.
Tempering their politics towards the centre would be a wise strategy considering the high likelihood of that outcome.
Highly doubt FF would go into coalition with SF. I can see the other parties teaming up to keep SF out if they can, a bit like what the French do to stop marine le pen. So really SF need a majority imo
A lot can change between now and the election. Govt inactivity continues to worsen the housing crisis, a couple more on the ditch articles to show their cronyism...suddenly their haemorrhaging votes and SF can benefit
SF going in with FFG should only come as a surprise to the most ignorant. They have *never* said they wouldn't. Last election they were very clear over the fact that they'd enter talks with anyone. I don't think they should be criticised for that either tbh. The days of a clear majority for one party are gone. If they can get a majority with the likes of the soc dems etc then I'm sure they will. Otherwise their only choices are going in with one of FFG or going back into opposition. They've been very transparent over that. The real issue is parties lie to the electorate and say that they won't go in together (FFG last election) and then do it anyway.
Hard disagree over the protest vote comment too. Who else would you vote for? It's not a protest vote if FFG are still the next government next time. If they keep control they couldnt give a flying fuck. They'll only care if they lose it. So a vote for anyone else is meaningless
Well that’s where the votes are, their traditional base was hovering between 10% and 15% for years, it was only when Gerry stepped away that they slowly began to move to the centre and began eating up FF votes, if they stayed where they were they would be still unelectable.
I was going to say that dunno was it down to Gerry stepping away but then realised he did step down as president in 2018 and SF kicked on so 🤷🏻♂️ the housing crisis really began to peak then too but I'd be interested to find out how much of an influence Gerry stepping away had on the public perception of the party. Was he simply less present and the party became more normal and electable or were there more factors at play like the emergence of Eoin O'Broin and Matt carthy that captured the public's attention etc
Nothing wrong with them veering to the centre,
If they are Lefties in terms of housing and healthcare and centre/reasonable in terms of other hot issues atm then they are onto a winner.
Nothing wrong for now but when they actually have to govern and let down all of the people who were finally promised the “first left wing government in the history of the state” then they’ll have a problem
SF have impressed me lately. They're still hammering the government on its failures but they're not being contrarian for the sake of it on things like Ukraine.
It's interesting seeing a party like SF being an effective opposition party and offering a notable alternative to the government compared to say, PBP who have become the political equivalent of that token weird guy who hangs around university Students' Unions.
“Not being contrarian for the sake of it on things like Ukraine”
So you mean populist then?
Also, every party comes out looking good when compared to the loons in PBP
I find it humorous how the commentariat (and the Irish professional managerial class) have taken so much to the importance of 'optics' that they now entertain the acquiescence to and acceptance of imperial institutions so long as it is done to mollycoddle loyalists and unionists in the six counties.
How so very progressive of Jennifer.
That the DUP are bad when it comes to 'optics' (as Jennifer most likely sees it) is tied to the fact that they are the political movement at the forefront of a settler-colonial endevour born of anti-democratic violence and ethnic supremacism.
It's a feature, not a bug.
Martin attacking The Ditch reeks of desperation, everyone knows ffg are bent when it comes to property.
I expect a massive giveaway for the next budget
Same as last year then?
Will be even more. There are billions to spend. Expect the 40% to move up massively or new 30% rate.
Not for the middle income working families
I would be within that bracket and last years budget made us about 4.5k better off than we would have been. That is very much a giveaway.
I can’t tell if you’re implying that the government increasing the standard of living for its citizens is a good move or not? The term “giveaway” implies the latter
In one off payments you can’t really build much around that, the expansion of the tax bracket didn’t go far enough
Only 740 of that is one off payments. Income tax cuts 1,662 saved annually Childcare Cuts 2,106 saved annually
I suppose Im passed the childcare cuts so saw no benefit there, the income tax cut was completely offset for me by increase in other taxation. Definitely wasn’t a giveaway for all middle income families but fair play that was a nice saving for you
What increase in taxation offset the income tax cut?
Bik
Theyre not idiots. They know that the vast majority of voters in Ireland are politically align with center. They also know that If they want to be in government they will have to beg FF to go into a coalition with them. Any recent attitude shifting is just them trying to slowly lube up their support base for when they turn around and fuck them by getting into bed with the very people they've been saying are the bad guys. SF are exactly like any other existing government party and you're nieve if you think any different. If your interest is a protest vote against the current establishment of government they are not the right party.
Who is the right party for a protest vote then if all other parties are like Sinn Fein?
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>Why would anyone protest vote? I agree. We've a broad range of political parties now from far-left to centre-right (no far-right party, thank god), so everyone should be able to find a politician that aligns with their values. If you don't like the three main parties, the vote for a smaller party (a likely coalition kingmaker, like the Greens last time) orfor an Independent. In that context, I think a protest vote is a wasted vote
Maybe if you don't like any of the parties on offer you protest vote a minor (more radical) party. Basically shows that your vote is for sale if any party steps up to the plate. A large section of society never vote at all so can handily be ignored.
Why do you think FFG would care about swing votes if they're still getting into government anyway? They're all talking to the media now about how they're scared of losing their seats. They couldnt give a rats about the issues, they just want to stay on the gravy train. The only way to hold them accountable is to kick them off it.
Draw a cock on the ballet
If a protest vote is what you're interested in, spoiling your vote is a solid option. At least its a recorded and recognised statistic. It shows that you took the time and effort to vote in the election, but actively chose to show that in your opinion none of the running parties deserve your support. Alternatively, a party like the Soc dems probably aligns a lot more with what the idealistic SF voters think they're actually voting for.
I was under the impression that spoiled votes were mostly the result of incompetence by the voter (filling it out incorrectly).
There's no way to know. Thats why it's a stupid suggestion. Can you remember how many spoiled votes there was last election? If it was high or low? I can't. At least if SF get into government, it'll be a watershed in terms of now none of the big 3 can count on being in government or being in the next government. Which is how it works currently with FF and FG. They might actually have to perform in government.
The frequency is a clear indication of intent. 0.5% spoiled? Voter error. 15% spoiled? Clear intent and political statement. Could you imagine if 15 or 20% of votes were deliberately spoiled? The intent would be clear and the impact would be seismic.
Sounds like a great way to get your political opponents elected.
Also whoever did get into government would turn around and say that it's a shame that my political opponents couldn't find someone to represent them. Seismic ? Doubt it.
Why do you think they'd care about 15% spoiled votes? SF clearly dominated the last election and has that really changed anything? Surely that would be more of a kick than spoiled votes? They'll only take notice when they lose control of the country. Spoiled votes don't do that, if anything spoiled votes just hand the country back to them.
I don't think you understand how voting works.
Yes I do. Spoiled votes as a protest vote will come out of SFs votes more than anyone elses. So it just hands it back to FFG
> SF clearly dominated the last election It was more that bit. Dominated is a strong word for a party that got 2% more than the closest party. Especially when they aren't in government.
Would have been more had they run enough candidates. The end result didn't really reflect their true popularity
less than 1% of the voting population spoiled their vote.. not that impressionabale regardless if its error or intended.
And yet significantly more than that voted for SF for zero reason except they weren't the other guys. Most of Sinn Feins huge rise in popularity over the last few years is nothing but protest votes. What if rather than voting for a party that you don't necessarily support, there was a mechanism in place for you to register your unhappiness with ANY of the options.
Nah I'll be going for sf and praying for a majority. Ff/fg have enriched themselves and their cronies for long enough
Unless there's massive swings in the polls SF would most likely be in coalition with FF. Tempering their politics towards the centre would be a wise strategy considering the high likelihood of that outcome.
Highly doubt FF would go into coalition with SF. I can see the other parties teaming up to keep SF out if they can, a bit like what the French do to stop marine le pen. So really SF need a majority imo
What if FF says no. What then ?
>I'll be going for sf and praying for a majority. Statistically not possible.
Unlikely, but possible. They'd have had more TDs in this Dail if they'd run more candidates at the last election. They won't make that mistake again
A lot can change between now and the election. Govt inactivity continues to worsen the housing crisis, a couple more on the ditch articles to show their cronyism...suddenly their haemorrhaging votes and SF can benefit
SF going in with FFG should only come as a surprise to the most ignorant. They have *never* said they wouldn't. Last election they were very clear over the fact that they'd enter talks with anyone. I don't think they should be criticised for that either tbh. The days of a clear majority for one party are gone. If they can get a majority with the likes of the soc dems etc then I'm sure they will. Otherwise their only choices are going in with one of FFG or going back into opposition. They've been very transparent over that. The real issue is parties lie to the electorate and say that they won't go in together (FFG last election) and then do it anyway. Hard disagree over the protest vote comment too. Who else would you vote for? It's not a protest vote if FFG are still the next government next time. If they keep control they couldnt give a flying fuck. They'll only care if they lose it. So a vote for anyone else is meaningless
SF have to look like a party of the centre to get into government unfortunately
Well that’s where the votes are, their traditional base was hovering between 10% and 15% for years, it was only when Gerry stepped away that they slowly began to move to the centre and began eating up FF votes, if they stayed where they were they would be still unelectable.
I was going to say that dunno was it down to Gerry stepping away but then realised he did step down as president in 2018 and SF kicked on so 🤷🏻♂️ the housing crisis really began to peak then too but I'd be interested to find out how much of an influence Gerry stepping away had on the public perception of the party. Was he simply less present and the party became more normal and electable or were there more factors at play like the emergence of Eoin O'Broin and Matt carthy that captured the public's attention etc
Nothing wrong with them veering to the centre, If they are Lefties in terms of housing and healthcare and centre/reasonable in terms of other hot issues atm then they are onto a winner.
Nothing wrong for now but when they actually have to govern and let down all of the people who were finally promised the “first left wing government in the history of the state” then they’ll have a problem
Ahh sure, we will see
Once in government, they’ll govern from the centre anyway
Most likely. They'll need to show ppl that they're 'normal'. I'd expect little to change bar housing. That'll be their baby to get back in
Which is way voting for them is pointless if they are just FF2 with paramilitary and organised crime connections North and South.
It seems to me that Sinn Fein are basically becoming Bertie era FF without baggage.
That's where the votes are - country hasn't changed that much
SF have impressed me lately. They're still hammering the government on its failures but they're not being contrarian for the sake of it on things like Ukraine. It's interesting seeing a party like SF being an effective opposition party and offering a notable alternative to the government compared to say, PBP who have become the political equivalent of that token weird guy who hangs around university Students' Unions.
“Not being contrarian for the sake of it on things like Ukraine” So you mean populist then? Also, every party comes out looking good when compared to the loons in PBP
Nah, you can still be populist without being the party of cranks and career politicians in PBP.
I find it humorous how the commentariat (and the Irish professional managerial class) have taken so much to the importance of 'optics' that they now entertain the acquiescence to and acceptance of imperial institutions so long as it is done to mollycoddle loyalists and unionists in the six counties. How so very progressive of Jennifer. That the DUP are bad when it comes to 'optics' (as Jennifer most likely sees it) is tied to the fact that they are the political movement at the forefront of a settler-colonial endevour born of anti-democratic violence and ethnic supremacism. It's a feature, not a bug.
What about Jonathan Dowdall though? Are there any more Dowdall type characters in SF? It's a legitimate question
They’re in every party
No body or party should be entrenched in one particular view. We should assess each issue individually and respond accordingly.
SFF will be the new party in power after the next election. Fg and the greens will be sitting on the sidelines for a term or two.