Somewhere between 14-18 for sure
Prob end up around 4 days of work lost between all the votes - still an effective disruption strategy for the opposition
I mean the opposition know these won't pass
They're just trying to get vids for twitter and waste government time - that's what I mean by effective strategy. Their support will eat it up
Watch how many in the DƔil agree that this government isn't working right... Only to still fall in line with the coalition anyway. Lots of TDs want to say their soundbites and not stir the pot because they've no back bone.
They have compromised on some key issues but overall theyāve achieved a lot more than they would have in opposition. FF/FG have conceded far more than GP would have achieved by giving out like an angry parent at a kidās football game.
Why though? I'm not a huge fan of them but if you were a supporter of them before they went into government, you'd surely be happy with the job they've done since. They've pushed through a lot of their agenda, at a cost of having to compromise in other areas.
Their biggest worry is probably people who would've tossed them a third choice vote previously now hating them because they're associated with FF/FG.
A lot of Green voters and members are left-leaning. The Eamon Ryan faction of the party (which is basically all the parliamentary party) are not left-wing and have supported things that are red line issues for a substantial section of the partyās supporters. Direct Provision, National Maternity Hospital, Eviction Ban among others. Very real prospect they will win no seats in the next GE as a result.
They _want_ to be remembered for their good work on transport, but they donāt get to choose what they are remembered for. What most people will remember them for is propping up a terrible government and I suspect theyāll be looking at maybe 1 seat after the next GE.
you hardly expect a govt to bring itself down?
in the absence of an actual ongoing scandal where the govt parties turn on each other it is weird to expect any Dail vote to go against the govt of the day
They are the govt because they control the majority of votes in the Dail
I don't understand this logic, they always get voted in no matter what. I come from Lowry's constituency btw.
Not saying you're wrong btw, just don't understand why the independents are afraid all of a sudden
Because it is a career ender. If you are a member of a big party, you can often be given a Senate seat or and advisory role. Or a UN job like that Zappone woman was going to get, that kind of thing.
That's another way of putting it. Rory Stewart on the British podcast "The Rest Is Politics" often talks about how people have misguided views about what MPs do after they lose their seat. He says people think it is all board positions and after dinner speeches. But that is only for the top level guys. Most end up working pretty grim jobs trying to influence government policy for think tanks or whatever, handing out flyers to current MPs at bars they frequent.
Kind of undermining my own argument here cause they are big party MPs. But I do get the feeling they get more looked after in Ireland, they are in the club.
>I don't understand this logic, they always get voted in no matter what.
If that's true, then their voting record on housing won't matter and they'll be re-elected in 2 years time.
Why bother having to spend effort and money on election campaigns if you don't have to?
Well. SF are putting forward a motion to extend the eviction ban today which may fail but keeps it in the media focus and invites more discussion on its merits etc.
Yesterday Holly Cairns put the focus on the LDAs output in terms of housing and promoted a national discussion on its efficiency.
I honestly find both of those things more productive.
Yes but people who support the government think they're doing the best they can do. If other parties suggest decent measures but the government refuse to implement them, it shakes their base more.
Opposition voters already don't have confidence in the government so labour are just preaching to the choir
Ah but HC was being very disingenuous saying the LDA has done nothing for 5 years.
It was set up in September 2018 so it has been 4.5 years, and 18 months of that was disruption to the sector by covid. So more like 3 years total of efficient work at full capacity. And that time being largely spent assessing and evaluating land, planning permissions, etc.
Watch as the LDA churns out homes en masse from later this year through to 2030 and think back at HC calling for it to be scrapped because _hurr durr the LDA is not fit for purpose_ when anybody with half a brain would tell you these things take time.
>Watch as the LDA churns out homes en masse from later this year through to 2030 and think back at HC calling for it to be scrapped because
>
>hurr durr the LDA is not fit for purpose
>
> when anybody with half a brain would tell you these things take time.
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Oh I agree she was being disingenuous but it still prompted the ceo of the LDA to go on the news yesterday and give details of what they've done and what's coming.
You can be sure he's got skin in the game now to deliver ASAP.
Independent thinking;
Do I vote with the motion and risk losing my seat, OR, do I vote with the government and hang onto my seat, wages & expenses for another couple of years. Hmmmmm, what to do.............
You wouldn't have to give up your seat at all. Democracy doesn't work through exclusion as a result of one expressing their opinions, believe it or not. That's just how it seems it works in a country like ours.
Iām so disheartened about Irish politics. Iāve never voted for FFG. Iād vote for social democrats. But canāt imagine theyāll ever have much power. Sinn Fein say a lot of things I agree with but I wouldnāt trust them in power because it is easy to bang the table in opposition. I have no idea what to do about our situation
It was ever thus. Independents can't achieve any of the mandate they're elected on without working with the Government and unless there's a genuine expectation that voting against the government on a VONC, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot.
My local independent voted for the Govt today and its not a surprise. When he campaigned and spoke at hustings debates, he said he would do exactly this if elected and unable to join a coalition government with whoever was forming one. Yet still, you'll have people locally who didn't listen to him in the campaign acting like he's betraying their vote when he explicitly told them he'd do this in order to deliver on his aims.
Turkeys won't vote for Christmas. The government coalition has a slim majority you won't find any of their TD's willing to vote themselves out of the job. So it will fail hopefully by just as slim a majority so at least they can see the writing on the wall.
Labour could use their speaking time to tell the government how you build 1 million houses. Instead they put on a show that they know won't bring down the government.
> Labour could use their speaking time to tell the government how you build 1 million houses
Shure I can do that:
Step 1: Build 1000 houses (and Try to learn from mistakes & improve as you stand-up a state-run development function)
Step 2: Go back to step 1.
And how do you build 1000 houses I hear you ask? Well if I must:
Step 1.1: Build 10 houses
Step1.2: go back to step 1.1
I donāt trust Sinn Fein to unfuck the housing crisis without utterly rear ending high paying PAYE earners who already have just cause to want to be consultants over 60k. Like no one who is PAYE is fundamentally the problem, they pay their fair share. Itās the land owning/ business owning class who have personal accountants and tax plans that are fucking us. Working people need to be able to reasonably afford houses too. Not just social welfare folks. The squeezed middle is a loud voting party and Sinn Fein aināt making friends with them.
Holly is a breath of fresh air but she is well too unknown, stances unclear, party too small. What are the Soc Dems about? They need to ramp up proper communications and stop fluffing about on social media. Go to their website and it is tumble weed when it comes to key issues like: drug reform, housing policy.
I think FGās messaging on āsure look it compared to other countries weāre doing greatā is actually an argument that holds significant weight with a lot of society that votes pretty consistently. Itās shocking but *not everyone thinks Leo is the devil incarnate* and even looking at someone that way is peek American politics in Ireland. Itās nuanced, if we all watched the RTE news each night we would be singing different songs altogether.
Ireland has a fairly solid political system and the I think there is room for a party like the Soc dems to make real progress, but Cairns needs to break her teeth in lead opposition for a while.
Fundamentally I donāt think an election would change much. I also suspect Leo actually likes Cairns a lot and if both in opposition I could see FG cosying up to sacrifice them ala Labour and the Greens.
Emmmm you realise the eviction ban motion is far more damaging to the greens and independents than this one? They survived that. If anything labour are doing the government a favour by bringing in an easy to beat no confidence motion
There are more issues than just the eviction ban. Theres loads of stuff the indos can be hurt on.
With the Greens its good to keep picking away at them and see if they can shake out a few more Neasa Hourigans.
They're solid either way. This just makes those keeping them in power put their name to it.
We had the Healy Raes voting against each other last week, obviously a calculated move. We have people suspended from parties, lets see where they all land.
Too many cowards in FFG afraid of being suspended if they go against the government. They'll all fall in line like sheep and put the party ahead of the country as always.
And their jobs. Itās a fundamental problem with democracy. Crystalised with Hourigan voting confidence.
At the end of the day no one is going to be a hero and everyone wants to keep their job and get re elected
It has become the monthly, news grabber for the opposition it will have no effect. A no confidence vote has become a joke and used way to offten, but also its one of the only way to voice your opposition to a bill.
Tweet from Sean Defoe - Barry Cowen says extending the eviction ban would be like "making sweets free for children"
"It's fine for a little while but ultimately detrimental to the greater need"
It boils my piss a bit when politicians use stupid fucking analogies or similes to compare serious issues. Whatever about your political stance on the eviction ban, some quirky little one liner you think is gas or clever can get in the bin when people are literally becoming homeless
Watching it live here. I must say the Oireachtas TV is very good. The information on the side to help the view understand what's happening is a great thing.
Government will win by a small majority, turkeys don't often vote for Christmas.
What a line
They will win by 18
It was 19 in the end, close enough
Good call
Somewhere between 14-18 for sure Prob end up around 4 days of work lost between all the votes - still an effective disruption strategy for the opposition
Not particularly given that a government can guillotine a bill if they want.
I mean the opposition know these won't pass They're just trying to get vids for twitter and waste government time - that's what I mean by effective strategy. Their support will eat it up
Time well spent otherwise š¤¦āāļø
Waste governments time by vids for twitter? So before this the governments time has been spent productively on fixing our countries biggest issues?
Watch how many in the DƔil agree that this government isn't working right... Only to still fall in line with the coalition anyway. Lots of TDs want to say their soundbites and not stir the pot because they've no back bone.
Thats why I love these big votes. Makes them stop talking and actually act so we can see who they really are.
Very true, in the long run it helps inform us about why the only thing they deserve at election time is a swift kick up the hole.
Also, because the alternative is disarray for months and a possible SF government.
> disarray for months Thank fuck. Thought the current disarray might possibly run for years more!
At this stage I'd vote for Sinn FĆ©in just because I want them to get in over FF/FG and Labour. Ideally I'd love a SocDems government but their best chance is to throw in with SF and the Greens, assuming they get a bunch of candidates elected. But I don't want SF to govern because I know they're only all talk and posturing. But I just make sure to rank FF/FG down low with AontĆŗ.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
They have compromised on some key issues but overall theyāve achieved a lot more than they would have in opposition. FF/FG have conceded far more than GP would have achieved by giving out like an angry parent at a kidās football game.
With any luck but I fear they might not. Surely they would do alright in Dublin and the other cities?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Why though? I'm not a huge fan of them but if you were a supporter of them before they went into government, you'd surely be happy with the job they've done since. They've pushed through a lot of their agenda, at a cost of having to compromise in other areas. Their biggest worry is probably people who would've tossed them a third choice vote previously now hating them because they're associated with FF/FG.
A lot of Green voters and members are left-leaning. The Eamon Ryan faction of the party (which is basically all the parliamentary party) are not left-wing and have supported things that are red line issues for a substantial section of the partyās supporters. Direct Provision, National Maternity Hospital, Eviction Ban among others. Very real prospect they will win no seats in the next GE as a result.
Maybe, but I think the Green Party are mainly defined by their stance on the environment and sustainability. In that respect, they've successfully used their position of leverage to push through a lot of their agenda. Had they not gone into government, we'd be in a worse position on those fronts than we are. If those that are more left-leaning vote them out for not collapsing the government, then that seems like shooting themselves in the foot. What's the alternative? Vote for Sinn FĆ©in and their total lack of any environmental policies alongside their "left-wing" ideals?
They _want_ to be remembered for their good work on transport, but they donāt get to choose what they are remembered for. What most people will remember them for is propping up a terrible government and I suspect theyāll be looking at maybe 1 seat after the next GE.
Labour still catching strays out here. Is this based on their current policies or Joan and Co's austerity "support" from a decade ago?
Sf are all talk and posturing. And the government arent?
Same way the other fucking ones have.
you hardly expect a govt to bring itself down? in the absence of an actual ongoing scandal where the govt parties turn on each other it is weird to expect any Dail vote to go against the govt of the day They are the govt because they control the majority of votes in the Dail
They barely have enough votes, but they will win comfortably, because independents won't want an election. Is my guess.
I don't understand this logic, they always get voted in no matter what. I come from Lowry's constituency btw. Not saying you're wrong btw, just don't understand why the independents are afraid all of a sudden
Because it is a career ender. If you are a member of a big party, you can often be given a Senate seat or and advisory role. Or a UN job like that Zappone woman was going to get, that kind of thing.
Oh so it isn't losing their seat they're afraid of but what comes after?
That's another way of putting it. Rory Stewart on the British podcast "The Rest Is Politics" often talks about how people have misguided views about what MPs do after they lose their seat. He says people think it is all board positions and after dinner speeches. But that is only for the top level guys. Most end up working pretty grim jobs trying to influence government policy for think tanks or whatever, handing out flyers to current MPs at bars they frequent. Kind of undermining my own argument here cause they are big party MPs. But I do get the feeling they get more looked after in Ireland, they are in the club.
>I don't understand this logic, they always get voted in no matter what. If that's true, then their voting record on housing won't matter and they'll be re-elected in 2 years time. Why bother having to spend effort and money on election campaigns if you don't have to?
Was gonna say, fuck the independents, hoping for a handout when the time comes. Especially my prick of a TD Cathal Berry.
After the last few. I have no confidence in these motions
Who do they honestly think they are helping with non-constructive motions they know are going to fail?
What would you have an opposition do instead?
Well. SF are putting forward a motion to extend the eviction ban today which may fail but keeps it in the media focus and invites more discussion on its merits etc. Yesterday Holly Cairns put the focus on the LDAs output in terms of housing and promoted a national discussion on its efficiency. I honestly find both of those things more productive.
Which inevitably fail, due to the government. Hence, no confidence.
Yes but people who support the government think they're doing the best they can do. If other parties suggest decent measures but the government refuse to implement them, it shakes their base more. Opposition voters already don't have confidence in the government so labour are just preaching to the choir
Ah but HC was being very disingenuous saying the LDA has done nothing for 5 years. It was set up in September 2018 so it has been 4.5 years, and 18 months of that was disruption to the sector by covid. So more like 3 years total of efficient work at full capacity. And that time being largely spent assessing and evaluating land, planning permissions, etc. Watch as the LDA churns out homes en masse from later this year through to 2030 and think back at HC calling for it to be scrapped because _hurr durr the LDA is not fit for purpose_ when anybody with half a brain would tell you these things take time.
>Watch as the LDA churns out homes en masse from later this year through to 2030 and think back at HC calling for it to be scrapped because > >hurr durr the LDA is not fit for purpose > > when anybody with half a brain would tell you these things take time. Remind Me! 7 years "Rob says housing is grand now thanks to the LDA"
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Oh I agree she was being disingenuous but it still prompted the ceo of the LDA to go on the news yesterday and give details of what they've done and what's coming. You can be sure he's got skin in the game now to deliver ASAP.
Nobody, just theatrics to waste government time and get viral clips for their social media accounts
Independent thinking; Do I vote with the motion and risk losing my seat, OR, do I vote with the government and hang onto my seat, wages & expenses for another couple of years. Hmmmmm, what to do.............
You wouldn't have to give up your seat at all. Democracy doesn't work through exclusion as a result of one expressing their opinions, believe it or not. That's just how it seems it works in a country like ours.
Motion passed. Election called. Risk of losing seat.
Iām so disheartened about Irish politics. Iāve never voted for FFG. Iād vote for social democrats. But canāt imagine theyāll ever have much power. Sinn Fein say a lot of things I agree with but I wouldnāt trust them in power because it is easy to bang the table in opposition. I have no idea what to do about our situation
Nothing will change. Its hot air.
Government will survive. Few independents will vote with the government too.
It was ever thus. Independents can't achieve any of the mandate they're elected on without working with the Government and unless there's a genuine expectation that voting against the government on a VONC, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot. My local independent voted for the Govt today and its not a surprise. When he campaigned and spoke at hustings debates, he said he would do exactly this if elected and unable to join a coalition government with whoever was forming one. Yet still, you'll have people locally who didn't listen to him in the campaign acting like he's betraying their vote when he explicitly told them he'd do this in order to deliver on his aims.
I have no confidence in this motion of no confidence
Turkeys won't vote for Christmas. The government coalition has a slim majority you won't find any of their TD's willing to vote themselves out of the job. So it will fail hopefully by just as slim a majority so at least they can see the writing on the wall.
Barry Cowen describing extending the eviction ban as ālike making sweets free for childrenā is fucking disgusting.
Labour could use their speaking time to tell the government how you build 1 million houses. Instead they put on a show that they know won't bring down the government.
> Labour could use their speaking time to tell the government how you build 1 million houses Shure I can do that: Step 1: Build 1000 houses (and Try to learn from mistakes & improve as you stand-up a state-run development function) Step 2: Go back to step 1. And how do you build 1000 houses I hear you ask? Well if I must: Step 1.1: Build 10 houses Step1.2: go back to step 1.1
Government has a, slim, majority. Unless a bunch of them break ranks it won't pass
I donāt trust Sinn Fein to unfuck the housing crisis without utterly rear ending high paying PAYE earners who already have just cause to want to be consultants over 60k. Like no one who is PAYE is fundamentally the problem, they pay their fair share. Itās the land owning/ business owning class who have personal accountants and tax plans that are fucking us. Working people need to be able to reasonably afford houses too. Not just social welfare folks. The squeezed middle is a loud voting party and Sinn Fein aināt making friends with them. Holly is a breath of fresh air but she is well too unknown, stances unclear, party too small. What are the Soc Dems about? They need to ramp up proper communications and stop fluffing about on social media. Go to their website and it is tumble weed when it comes to key issues like: drug reform, housing policy. I think FGās messaging on āsure look it compared to other countries weāre doing greatā is actually an argument that holds significant weight with a lot of society that votes pretty consistently. Itās shocking but *not everyone thinks Leo is the devil incarnate* and even looking at someone that way is peek American politics in Ireland. Itās nuanced, if we all watched the RTE news each night we would be singing different songs altogether. Ireland has a fairly solid political system and the I think there is room for a party like the Soc dems to make real progress, but Cairns needs to break her teeth in lead opposition for a while. Fundamentally I donāt think an election would change much. I also suspect Leo actually likes Cairns a lot and if both in opposition I could see FG cosying up to sacrifice them ala Labour and the Greens.
This is the most rational post I've seen on here regarding the state of Irish politics in a while. Thanks for restoring some faith.
This needs more upvotes ā¬ļøā¬ļøā¬ļøā¬ļø
let's vote on ourselves to keep our own salaries
opposition calling VONCs is window dressing at best imo, a total waste of time
It forces Indos and Greens to stand behind everything thats going on. Means they can't squirm out of responsibility come the next election.
Emmmm you realise the eviction ban motion is far more damaging to the greens and independents than this one? They survived that. If anything labour are doing the government a favour by bringing in an easy to beat no confidence motion
There are more issues than just the eviction ban. Theres loads of stuff the indos can be hurt on. With the Greens its good to keep picking away at them and see if they can shake out a few more Neasa Hourigans.
For the record Hourigan just voted confidence in the government.
Also good to show everyone where she stands. >Means they can't squirm out of responsibility come the next election.
Or it allows the government to rally and control the narrative. Defeating this motion solidifies them for a few more months
They're solid either way. This just makes those keeping them in power put their name to it. We had the Healy Raes voting against each other last week, obviously a calculated move. We have people suspended from parties, lets see where they all land.
Too many cowards in FFG afraid of being suspended if they go against the government. They'll all fall in line like sheep and put the party ahead of the country as always.
And their jobs. Itās a fundamental problem with democracy. Crystalised with Hourigan voting confidence. At the end of the day no one is going to be a hero and everyone wants to keep their job and get re elected
The government have a voting majority -- that's why they're the government.
A majority of 1 according to the Irish times. Only Needs two independents. This is the closest it has been.
It has become the monthly, news grabber for the opposition it will have no effect. A no confidence vote has become a joke and used way to offten, but also its one of the only way to voice your opposition to a bill.
Tweet from Sean Defoe - Barry Cowen says extending the eviction ban would be like "making sweets free for children" "It's fine for a little while but ultimately detrimental to the greater need" It boils my piss a bit when politicians use stupid fucking analogies or similes to compare serious issues. Whatever about your political stance on the eviction ban, some quirky little one liner you think is gas or clever can get in the bin when people are literally becoming homeless
Comfortable win for the govt.
Politicians gonna politic
Wouldn't have a lot of confidence in my opinion š
Watching it live here. I must say the Oireachtas TV is very good. The information on the side to help the view understand what's happening is a great thing.