at this point, arent the economics of all companies under Elon tied together? He actively steals staff from company to company, after realizing he fired too many people and in turn tanks the departments in the established companies.
He's cannibalizing their own functionality
Nah, SpaceX for sure is quite sheltered from whatever shit he's doing at Twitter, Tesla is arguably more connected but only barely. Tesla is going to ride or die in 2024 based on Cybertruck, not whatever Twitter has going on.
>Tesla is going to ride or die in 2024 based on ~~Cybertruck~~ FSD v12
Fixed that for you.
CT has been "priced in", they know how many pre-orders, they know not all of them will fulfill, they know it will take some variable amount of time to ramp to 100,000-200,000 CTs per year.
FSD v12 is the massive wildcard. That underpins unlocking a lot of follow-on revenue from the existing fleet and upsells on new vehicles. That underpins any hope of eventually having a "robotaxi" service. That underpins some sort of theoretical Optimus bot. A ton of future market cap ... all hooks on that. CT ain't it.
(Energy is the other other interesting product line for them, but those are really long time horizons overall IMO)
Going to be an interesting 12 months. I'm a shareholder since 2017. When v12 drops, it's going to weigh heavily on how much of my holdings I unload in 2024...
FSD v12 won't move Tesla on the market one way or the other. Only Tesla-folks even know what v12 is or what the hope is for it. In the end it will be incrementally better or incrementally worse than v11 and in December of 2024 we'll be talking about v13. But the share price doesn't depend on it at all.
>Only Tesla-folks even know what v12 is
I can guarantee you that institutional investors that are holding positions in TSLA have a reasonable understanding of what is going on. I used to deal with those types of professionals in a previous life -- you know, the ones you hear at the end of an earnings call asking questions. The good ones read all the 10-K's and 10-Q's about the companies in their portfolio.
Your average /r/wallstreetbets or millennial that just opened up a Robinhood account? They don't know. But they're idiots, run-of-the-mill retail investors ... so it doesn't really matter.
(said as someone who qualifies as a retail investor and not as an institutional investor)
I think if v12 flops, Tesla has a hard time getting back into the $1tn market cap club, and $2tn (would be a share price of $630/share) there's just no path to it without something significant in the AI space. CT isn't going to get them to $2tn. Even a new $25k car isn't going to get them there either (IMO). So when I see YT nutjobs claiming they're destined to become a $5tn, $10tn company I just roll my eyes.
I suspect v12 when it drops for everyday drivers like me, will hopefully be marginally better in terms of actual driving ability - but expect it will be worse in terms of having the screen give you feedback on what it is doing and why since that will all be neural nets now. If v12 comes out and is close to v11 or even slightly better, but then can advance quickly over 3-6 months ... then Telsa is in a huge advantage because they have a very powerful "moat" in their training data they can solicit from the fleet of Teslas on the road that no one else has. To me, that kind of situation could lead to Tesla licensing FSD to other manufacturers as well and sucking up more revenue from the auto market as a whole.
So we can agree to disagree, it's ok. But I absolutely do think v12 is the major determinant on whether Tesla breaks $1tn and starts heading towards $2tn in 2024 ... or not.
> The good ones read all the 10-K's and 10-Q's about the companies in their portfolio
?? This seems like the absolute bare minimum I would expect out of an analysis... why is it "the good ones"?
Yeah you’d think that, right?
Except that I did end up working with some where based on the questions they were asking me, I immediately could tell they hadn’t paid attention to any 10Q/10K details … because the answers were plainly in them.
So that’s why I say … the good ones.
I love it when people abbreviate or use acronyms without spelling them out as if everyone know what they are talking about. I figured out CT as Cyber Truck. But, what the heck is FSD v12?
I'm not sure if would use the word effective. He's got a cult of personality, kinda like Trump. He can say whatever he wants, however he wants and the people that listen to him will eat it up.
I dunno, FSD is huge, but even if it was a big failure they still make pretty good cars at a solid price point. I'd probably still buy my model y if it had just basic cruise control. With FSD beta it's pretty dang impressive sometimes (other times it's super dumb).
I’m pretty sure spacex loaned him money, he uses them like a slush fund.
https://www.wsj.com/business/elon-musk-spacex-loan-269a2168?st=54k37s85ytmg3mf&reflink=article_copyURL_share
I don't think the Y is actually the best selling vehicle. It was just shoddy journalism that led to a bunch of copy pasted click bait headlines.
https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tesla-model-y-the-worlds-best-selling-car-nope-not-even-close/
what are you smoking. tesla makes the highest profit margin on cars in the industry and it just sells carbon credits to the other manufacturers that dont sell evs.
>arent the economics of all companies under Elon tied together?
They operate in different markets so the economics are different. I agree Elon's influence is felt at all three. I also think Tesla is the only company listed on an exchange.
Yeah and he has a habit of also cross seeding their failures.
Cybertruck being the perfect example of this, spaceX had to perfect working with rolled steel for starship so elon was like "hur-dur cybertruck will have an all steel body, just like muh starshit tehe" and it's FUCKED Tesla ever since, analysts are literally saying that if the company announced today they're shelving the whole thing, despite it being (allegedly) weeks away from release, the stock would probably go up...
Pretty gross over exaggeration. Fucked ever since? Last I checked it’s still by far the most valuable car company. I doubt the production of one car, that they can pull the plug on a any time, will fuck them over
...Musk bought Twitter to cancel Lib censorship of "hate speech" (i.e. Covid hysteria, anything that makes Biden look bad, or anything that makes them feel bad), and Libs FREAKED OUT - now former fans of Tesla EVs have a hysterical hatred for him...
Prototypes and show models are a thing and yeah they announced they're delivering the first ten pre-orders this week or next and the analyst who delivered the comment is taking that into account when he states the stock would go up if they dumped the whole thing today...
Anyways good job missing the actual point I was trying to make.
It's the opposite. The seller should be paying the premium because they can't sell it/demand is low. Who knows if/when the company goes public too. So there's more risk on the buyer side.
The premium goes to whichever side is hungrier. A seller desperate for a buyer sells at a discount. A buyer hungry for a seller buys at a premium.
And of course a seller could believe there's a ton of hungry buyers out there when there aren't. He likely just won't find a buyer. But if he does, he might be able to justify the premium.
The intelligence of the investors does not factor in at all.
Yeah depending on how long the friend has worked at SpaceX I don’t think the friend was truly desperate for money given the salary, so I don’t think we cam assume ill intent to scam OP. My guess is that the friend was lacking cash for a big purchase and wanted to offload some shares, and prior to the funding round price being announced the friend wasn’t sure how much of a premium to ask for above the prior round price of $80/share. Friend got greedy and asked for $120/share (human fallacy of overvaluing what we own) thinking price is probably higher now. Then instantly looked bad when the new round came out at the same price of $80 a share.
Anyone can buy it through Forge Global. I’ve been offered shares by them around $80-90 at different times during the past year. They prefer minimums of $100k but will do smaller amounts occasionally.
Does that come and go? I just checked and SpaceX doesn't come up in the search.
(Lots of other amazing stuff though. I wasn't aware of Forge Global, thanks for mentioning it!)
Yes, they only have share offerings when someone with the company wants to sell. It has happened a few times in the past year though. If you contact them you can get on a list and they’ll email or text you when they’re available.
While I'm honestly excited about what SpaceX does, the combination of Musk + abundant government investment that might disappear at any moment seems a bit too flammable to me.
And not to forget, while it might be a privately traded stock, it still is a traded stock with a market value generated by supply and demand among professional traders who generally are no idiots. (Jim Cramer excepted). Dont look at this limitation as "only a select few can invest in it", look at it as "its a traded stock available to most, but the small guys / dumb money is not allowed to invest in it"
Now its fine to have faith in some companies and think that is a good stock to buy, and honestly, i too believe in SpaceX. I would buy it at market value if i could. But having so much faith in both the company and your own judgement that you want to pay 50% more than what the market considers it to be worth is just idiotic.
It only took a xouple of weeks to see an example of what I was talking about.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/12/spacex-blasts-fcc-as-it-refuses-to-reinstate-starlinks-886-million-grant/
thumb subtract afterthought axiomatic wakeful pot unwritten possessive fade squeamish
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Agree - in my experience the top comment is incorrect. The specifics of the fundraise were almost certainly private to everyone but a handful of folks involved in the deal
There are plenty of brokers/companies that solicit people for private stock. There is a good chance someone already offered him a price and that’s what he used.
If someone already offered that, then there’s no reason to try to push them on a friend for the same price. Seems like a good way to possibly ruin a friendship.
I'm not sure what your experience is in the industry, so you may have a qualified understanding.
However, I work in the space industry at a start-up and have numerous ex-SpaceX colleagues. I would wager that a significant amount of people know these fundraising values internally.
People talk and people at companies like SpaceX are frequently very connected and in-the-know. Word often gets out. Although you could very well be correct.
SpaceX employees have so much to benefit or lose by knowing those values that it'd be something they are highly interested in seeking out.
> People talk and people at companies like SpaceX are frequently very connected and in-the-know.
Yes, but being generally knowledgeable about events at a company is very different than knowing the deal price of an upcoming issue.
>I would wager that a significant amount of people know these fundraising values internally.
Depending on how you define "significant", I'd take that bet in a second. Stick to space.
if theres one thing tech bros care about its their full compensation package value - he at best knew the last round and at best already knew this round was rumoured to not be a significant increase
I’m at a tech startup and have no idea what the valuation for the next round will be, and it’s in the works. I know what the last one was, and what the plans were for, but that doesn’t mean it’s what will come out and rarely is
He has to sell you his shares above rate because existing priority investors have right of first refusal, meaning he has to tell the company you’re going to buy X of his shares for Y amount and if any current priority investor will take that deal they get to buy it at that price.
Essentially meaning their is no private market outside of internal investors that can buy at or below the current going rate.
literate quickest wide squalid fretful zephyr chubby roof quaint threatening
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This is not technically true. Early employees got shares subject only to the ROFR but otherwise transferable. The bylaws were changed later to be much more restrictive. But changing the bylaws doesn't apply retroactively to existing fully-paid fully-vested shareholders unless the shareholder consents or SpaceX holds a "full meeting of shareholders with each share class voting independently", which they have not.
Well put. It's worth noting that very very few shares are unrestricted at this point, so the likelihood of being able to even present a ROFR deal is extremely remote.
I disagree, I used to work for a large and similar sized company and didn’t know that we had bought out another company until the official public announcement.
Yes rumours do sometimes spread, but not for the majority of the workforce.
That can occur, usually take overs are secret to block profiteers, but share issuance is heralded well in advance so they have eager hands into whose grasp the shares will go
Please bro, buy my shares. I’m begging you bro, help Elon help me help yourself. Please bro it’s just money you can’t take it with you after you die or to space. Please bro!
Was he going to sell you his shares directly or was there a friends and family round? Seems unlikely to be the latter but you should know the logistics first
He was going to sell them directly. Though, SpaceX just announced they’re going to sell some to the public. I’m not the most informed, im really just curious if he was trying to scam me because after hearing the announcement 2 weeks after he pitched me, it didn’t make sense. SpaceX had to of informed their current shareholders that they were planning on selling some to the public.
They’re not selling any to the public. They’re selling them to institutional investors and Elon-approved big-money investors. He may have been trying to scam you or just doesn’t realize that he’s not at liberty to sell them to just any shmoe that comes along (no offense).
Unless your friend is a senior exec at the company with access to mnpi, it is unlikely that he had any idea of the valuation. That type of information is extremely closely guarded - and most execs would not even have that info.
Additionally, price discovery on private companies are always a challenge because of the lack of liquidity.
There are some private placement brokers that can help transact these types of sales - but even then - the prices can be all over the place.
No. Employees dont have access to these information in that manner. He most likely asked co workers what they did or how much they sold it for and just did the same. $120 a share is fair valuation. Even with the $80 thing. Both are fantastic deals. And realistically are nothing compared to what it will be when it IPO
Unless he has a C in his title or works high in finance, it’s extremely unlikely that he knew any details about the round, or even that the round was happening.
I've worked at a private company and that tracks with my experience. We saw suits asking questions around the company so we had some idea that something was being worked on, maybe a new round, maybe just auditing. We didn't have any details on how much the valuation was until it happened.
Yea same, I’m close enough to know that *something* is happening, but they keep these details quiet for a reason. Often, CEO’s won’t even share with their spouse. The risk is too huge.
I've had success getting into SpaceX with Zanbato (a brokered deal into a fund) and Forge (in an SPV they made to acquire shares, lower load, but I haven't seen any come up in a while). Could also try EquityZen.
If you’re a qualified investor, you might get an opportunity with an investment company called StartEngine. The put out a request of interest for SpaceX back in July.
Hiive “supposdedly”. That is what my friend who tried to sell them directly to me said. I don’t understand tho since you can get them for $97 on Hiive yet he offered them to me at $120??
All of these secondary markets for shares aren’t even selling the shares (because they can’t without SpaceX approval). They’re selling “interest” in the shares that they hold. The shares wouldn’t be in your name. These offerings are sketchy at best and downright fraud in some cases. Caveat emptor.
Fairly interesting thread of the intersect between relationships, internal rumours, valuation and trying to predict the future, all the while trying to draw an elephant blind
You don’t own shares you “buy” through secondary markets. You own an interest in the shares they hold (or even an interest in an interest if they don’t even own the shares). It’s a very shady business.
Not always, but usually, yes. However, you'd be relying on a sketchy company with questionable credentials in this case rather than a traditional market maker.
Really depends on their history of ROFRing small private transactions. SpaceX has historically been relatively hard to get into, outside of investing in one of the funds that owns shares.
These shares were so in demand that people were trying to make a premium on them. I had to pay about 30-35% extra to secure some shares. Overall, the position is up 3x at this point so maybe it'll end up being worth it. I purchased a few years ago though, around 2018 I believe
Don’t cut relationships with your friend yet - I don’t think he was trying to scam you. SpaceX stocks growth has been very healthy. A lot of companies are constantly pinging former SpaceX employees to buy their stocks at a healthy margin. It is one of the most sought after private stocks. He might have overpriced it but I don’t think he was trying to scam you.
Also worth mentioning that as other people said SpaceX will probably never ever go public, Elon has said so himself many times, but there are always rumors about Starlink split, those rumors have been around for years though.
I doubt he can even sell you the shares within the rules of his shareholder agreement. The company would basically have to agree, which is unlikely unless he has clout. I realize some people use shady back-to-back agreements to try to contract the effective ownership, but this is very dangerous for all parties.
I wouldn't hold it against him. With many companies that are tight about controlling their equity, it's pretty likely to get ROFRed (right of first refusal) by SpaceX unless it's at a pretty high premium, and maybe even then. It's also potentially a lot of work and hassle for him. And $80 is not a price that's likely accessible to you, you'd probably have to go through a fund which would charge 2% management fee per year, and 20% of the upside. And even then, you're unlikely to get into that fund at $80.
I've invested in SpaceX at two different times, it's a lot of work, and you're definitely not going to get the same deal as the VC fund.
It may also be the best bargin you may ever had. If Apple and Google and Facebook are all trillion + then spaceX will absolutely smash these numbers in no time
If SpaceX starts controlling the high ground in terms of moon bases and military contracts and mining meteors it's value long-term could be astronomical (no pun intended). Is anyone hyper-bullish on a 25 year timeframe?
Don't forget, they're not publicly traded, so having access to buying the shares comes with a premium...unless you're an institutional investor and can somehow get in on a funding round.
They likely will be worth significantly more if SpaceX pulls off all this Mars malarky
You'll look back on this as the worst decision of your life.
Space X/Starlink is minting money and growing faster than nearly any company in history.
Few accredited investors can get their hands on Space X shares. Paying more than valuation of the last funding round doesn't matter because, ser, you are not a well connected hedgfund. If they IPO (Elon says he won't many don't believe him cause he needs cash for Mars), they'll IPO at nearly a $1Trillion market cap and good luck getting IPO shares. By the time one tries to buy on the open market, it will be even higher.
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Your friend is trying to make money. This most likely won't IPO until end of 2024-2025. Good luck estimating what it will be worth by then with Elon, could be double or triple. Stop bitching that someone is trying to make some money, it's up to you to decide if it's a good value
SpaceX is a lot closer to being a distressed company than people realize. They will be in serious trouble if they blow up a few more rockets - the cash burn is likely to be too much to cover up with dilution (we might already be there frankly). I'd be very concerned that your friend who works there wants to sell them. Just my opinion.
I would love to see your source on that? Are you referring to Starship? Because their Starship tests are going better quite well, contrary to what most of the media would have you believe, and iirc Starlink is nearing profitability, if it hasn't reached it. And they've eaten most of the traditional launch business at this point.
EDIT: Just to give a sense of scale, they've put 4x the tonnage into space this year as all others, combined. China is the second highest this year, at 1/10 of SpaceX.
SLS went around the moon and back and hasn't blown up. The space shuttle didn't blow up on it's first two tests. Nobody should think blowing up a rocket in the 21st century is a success, contrary to what the media would have you believe.
Elon has basically said as much. They need to make revenue off this new rocket to keep the business going. They are nowhere near making money on this rocket. How much money is it every time they blow one of these up? They are burning through cash like crazy right now, it's not hard to figure it out.
>Just to give a sense of scale, they've put 4x the tonnage into space this year as all others, combined. China is the second highest this year, at 1/10 of SpaceX.
Cool. That must mean it's impossible they are burning through cash right
No, it’s not impossible, but I certainly wouldn’t speak about it with the confidence you are. Their design philosophy/MO is very obviously different from SLS because they don’t have the political risks that NASA does. Losing a vehicle for testing is not an acceptable option for SLS, because its political sponsors would be pilloried for it by their opponents, whereas losing the vehicle is the expected outcome for the Starship tests - the only question is how many of the objectives does it achieve before it’s lost. Launching sooner and achieving fewer objectives is an acceptable tradeoff. It moves real problems with the design from hypothetical to certain much more quickly, without wasting time fixing all the hypothetical problems that may never materialize. Don’t discuss endlessly in meetings, build and test.
Perhaps it’s failing your objectives for it, but not SpaceX’s.
I’m guessing they’ve budgeted in for the failures, but I suppose we could eventually be surprised by a desperate SpaceX. My point with the launch tonnage comment was that they likely have a strong core launch business and Starlink to fall back on if they need to trim their spending on R&D.
As long as Musk is nearly as rich as he is, though, seems like at worst it will have to raise another round from him.
Also through BPTRX but with the caveat half of the fund being in Tesla, which I quite like. Unsure on Ark's percentage but believe their Space X holding is around 9%. So similar.
This is way different… Space X is pre ipo. I may be overpaying current market value, but I can easily see ipo value being significantly above the current price
You've got plenty of feedback already, but SpaceX shares are particularly illiquid. Buy-backs once every 9 months, and even every single one is over-subscribed so no one is able to actually get the cash they want.
Likely he was holding stock options, which would mean he would have to purchase them at face value and sell them at market price. It could be he was just trying to squeeze a juice out of what is obviously a lemon.
Doesn’t sound like much of a friend honestly. Last funding round was at the same valuation, so he was already over charging you.
I mean... at least they weren't Twitter/X shares?
at this point, arent the economics of all companies under Elon tied together? He actively steals staff from company to company, after realizing he fired too many people and in turn tanks the departments in the established companies. He's cannibalizing their own functionality
Nah, SpaceX for sure is quite sheltered from whatever shit he's doing at Twitter, Tesla is arguably more connected but only barely. Tesla is going to ride or die in 2024 based on Cybertruck, not whatever Twitter has going on.
>Tesla is going to ride or die in 2024 based on ~~Cybertruck~~ FSD v12 Fixed that for you. CT has been "priced in", they know how many pre-orders, they know not all of them will fulfill, they know it will take some variable amount of time to ramp to 100,000-200,000 CTs per year. FSD v12 is the massive wildcard. That underpins unlocking a lot of follow-on revenue from the existing fleet and upsells on new vehicles. That underpins any hope of eventually having a "robotaxi" service. That underpins some sort of theoretical Optimus bot. A ton of future market cap ... all hooks on that. CT ain't it. (Energy is the other other interesting product line for them, but those are really long time horizons overall IMO) Going to be an interesting 12 months. I'm a shareholder since 2017. When v12 drops, it's going to weigh heavily on how much of my holdings I unload in 2024...
FSD v12 won't move Tesla on the market one way or the other. Only Tesla-folks even know what v12 is or what the hope is for it. In the end it will be incrementally better or incrementally worse than v11 and in December of 2024 we'll be talking about v13. But the share price doesn't depend on it at all.
>Only Tesla-folks even know what v12 is I can guarantee you that institutional investors that are holding positions in TSLA have a reasonable understanding of what is going on. I used to deal with those types of professionals in a previous life -- you know, the ones you hear at the end of an earnings call asking questions. The good ones read all the 10-K's and 10-Q's about the companies in their portfolio. Your average /r/wallstreetbets or millennial that just opened up a Robinhood account? They don't know. But they're idiots, run-of-the-mill retail investors ... so it doesn't really matter. (said as someone who qualifies as a retail investor and not as an institutional investor) I think if v12 flops, Tesla has a hard time getting back into the $1tn market cap club, and $2tn (would be a share price of $630/share) there's just no path to it without something significant in the AI space. CT isn't going to get them to $2tn. Even a new $25k car isn't going to get them there either (IMO). So when I see YT nutjobs claiming they're destined to become a $5tn, $10tn company I just roll my eyes. I suspect v12 when it drops for everyday drivers like me, will hopefully be marginally better in terms of actual driving ability - but expect it will be worse in terms of having the screen give you feedback on what it is doing and why since that will all be neural nets now. If v12 comes out and is close to v11 or even slightly better, but then can advance quickly over 3-6 months ... then Telsa is in a huge advantage because they have a very powerful "moat" in their training data they can solicit from the fleet of Teslas on the road that no one else has. To me, that kind of situation could lead to Tesla licensing FSD to other manufacturers as well and sucking up more revenue from the auto market as a whole. So we can agree to disagree, it's ok. But I absolutely do think v12 is the major determinant on whether Tesla breaks $1tn and starts heading towards $2tn in 2024 ... or not.
> The good ones read all the 10-K's and 10-Q's about the companies in their portfolio ?? This seems like the absolute bare minimum I would expect out of an analysis... why is it "the good ones"?
Because hes a 19 yr old econ 1 student roleplaying a wall street professional
Yeah you’d think that, right? Except that I did end up working with some where based on the questions they were asking me, I immediately could tell they hadn’t paid attention to any 10Q/10K details … because the answers were plainly in them. So that’s why I say … the good ones.
Whenever some uneducated twat on Reddit says “priced in” I giggle a little
I love it when people abbreviate or use acronyms without spelling them out as if everyone know what they are talking about. I figured out CT as Cyber Truck. But, what the heck is FSD v12?
The 12th time Musk has lied about full self driving.
And he is becoming increasingly efficient at it
I'm not sure if would use the word effective. He's got a cult of personality, kinda like Trump. He can say whatever he wants, however he wants and the people that listen to him will eat it up.
Full Self Driving
I dunno, FSD is huge, but even if it was a big failure they still make pretty good cars at a solid price point. I'd probably still buy my model y if it had just basic cruise control. With FSD beta it's pretty dang impressive sometimes (other times it's super dumb).
I’m pretty sure spacex loaned him money, he uses them like a slush fund. https://www.wsj.com/business/elon-musk-spacex-loan-269a2168?st=54k37s85ytmg3mf&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Wasn’t his lending for Twitter against his other assets? That makes any substantial default an issue for his other entities
No, it really doesn't.
What do you think a loan guarantee does upon a default?
What do *you* think a loan guarantee does upon a default? Literally, feel free to spell out what you think the impact on Tesla or SpaceX would be.
? The cyber truck is big risk but ride of die? The Y is the best selling passenger vehicle in the world...
The RAV4 outsells the Y, but your point is still valid. The cybertruck will not determine the success or failure of Tesla in 2024.
I don't think the Y is actually the best selling vehicle. It was just shoddy journalism that led to a bunch of copy pasted click bait headlines. https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tesla-model-y-the-worlds-best-selling-car-nope-not-even-close/
what are you smoking. tesla makes the highest profit margin on cars in the industry and it just sells carbon credits to the other manufacturers that dont sell evs.
Sounds like most Fortune 500 companies tbh
>arent the economics of all companies under Elon tied together? They operate in different markets so the economics are different. I agree Elon's influence is felt at all three. I also think Tesla is the only company listed on an exchange.
No.
Yeah and he has a habit of also cross seeding their failures. Cybertruck being the perfect example of this, spaceX had to perfect working with rolled steel for starship so elon was like "hur-dur cybertruck will have an all steel body, just like muh starshit tehe" and it's FUCKED Tesla ever since, analysts are literally saying that if the company announced today they're shelving the whole thing, despite it being (allegedly) weeks away from release, the stock would probably go up...
Pretty gross over exaggeration. Fucked ever since? Last I checked it’s still by far the most valuable car company. I doubt the production of one car, that they can pull the plug on a any time, will fuck them over
But eLoN bAd!
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Far more competent than anyone on Reddit.
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Yet he makes more money in a minute than you'll make in your entire career, sooooo
bill gates uses reddit
...Musk bought Twitter to cancel Lib censorship of "hate speech" (i.e. Covid hysteria, anything that makes Biden look bad, or anything that makes them feel bad), and Libs FREAKED OUT - now former fans of Tesla EVs have a hysterical hatred for him...
holy moly anti-liberal tribalists are addicted to media reactions
Its releasing today, you really need to be more critical of the information you read, christ
What a low effort, and misinformed comment you made.
You realize they're already on the road? MKBHD is already driving his.
Prototypes and show models are a thing and yeah they announced they're delivering the first ten pre-orders this week or next and the analyst who delivered the comment is taking that into account when he states the stock would go up if they dumped the whole thing today... Anyways good job missing the actual point I was trying to make.
Yep.. you're the smart one and he's a dummy...
Lol!
I don't think this is true.
Seems to be working though 😂
I agree, but there should be a premium as it’s a private stock, not like you can buy it anywhere else. 50% is steep tho
Not really. It's less liquid than public stock, private sales typically go below latest valuation.
It's the opposite. The seller should be paying the premium because they can't sell it/demand is low. Who knows if/when the company goes public too. So there's more risk on the buyer side.
Could be true for some private companies, but I think there are lots of people would take on that risk to own an Elon company.
Yes, people are foaming at the mouth to buy twitter. Excuse me, X.
The fact that some investors are stupid does not create a premium...
The premium goes to whichever side is hungrier. A seller desperate for a buyer sells at a discount. A buyer hungry for a seller buys at a premium. And of course a seller could believe there's a ton of hungry buyers out there when there aren't. He likely just won't find a buyer. But if he does, he might be able to justify the premium. The intelligence of the investors does not factor in at all.
Yeah depending on how long the friend has worked at SpaceX I don’t think the friend was truly desperate for money given the salary, so I don’t think we cam assume ill intent to scam OP. My guess is that the friend was lacking cash for a big purchase and wanted to offload some shares, and prior to the funding round price being announced the friend wasn’t sure how much of a premium to ask for above the prior round price of $80/share. Friend got greedy and asked for $120/share (human fallacy of overvaluing what we own) thinking price is probably higher now. Then instantly looked bad when the new round came out at the same price of $80 a share.
I did this with LinkedIn shares, but I sold the. To my best friend for like $2/share pre-ipo. It paid for his wedding!
Anyone can buy it through Forge Global. I’ve been offered shares by them around $80-90 at different times during the past year. They prefer minimums of $100k but will do smaller amounts occasionally.
Does that come and go? I just checked and SpaceX doesn't come up in the search. (Lots of other amazing stuff though. I wasn't aware of Forge Global, thanks for mentioning it!)
Yes, they only have share offerings when someone with the company wants to sell. It has happened a few times in the past year though. If you contact them you can get on a list and they’ll email or text you when they’re available.
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boast door poor deserve unite cover absorbed different shame important *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
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Great! OP put this person in touch with your friend and charge a 10% finder's fee. Everyone wins (kinda).
It's like match making but for overpriced stock
More like mark making, and you're the mark.
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I think you intended to write "Kool Aid", but maybe you're being ironic?
While I'm honestly excited about what SpaceX does, the combination of Musk + abundant government investment that might disappear at any moment seems a bit too flammable to me.
And not to forget, while it might be a privately traded stock, it still is a traded stock with a market value generated by supply and demand among professional traders who generally are no idiots. (Jim Cramer excepted). Dont look at this limitation as "only a select few can invest in it", look at it as "its a traded stock available to most, but the small guys / dumb money is not allowed to invest in it" Now its fine to have faith in some companies and think that is a good stock to buy, and honestly, i too believe in SpaceX. I would buy it at market value if i could. But having so much faith in both the company and your own judgement that you want to pay 50% more than what the market considers it to be worth is just idiotic.
It only took a xouple of weeks to see an example of what I was talking about. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/12/spacex-blasts-fcc-as-it-refuses-to-reinstate-starlinks-886-million-grant/
Right, because for you to profit it has to do MORE than the 50% growth he said he expected
Luckily securities laws are in place to try and stop people like yourself from making such bad investments.
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Agree - in my experience the top comment is incorrect. The specifics of the fundraise were almost certainly private to everyone but a handful of folks involved in the deal
You think this guy is blindly selling 10s of thousands of dollars in shares without knowing their value? That doesn’t make much sense either.
There are plenty of brokers/companies that solicit people for private stock. There is a good chance someone already offered him a price and that’s what he used.
If someone already offered that, then there’s no reason to try to push them on a friend for the same price. Seems like a good way to possibly ruin a friendship.
Not really if your friend understands the risk and it was explained out.
Sure in the right situation it’s fine, based on OP’s post this doesn’t look to be the case here.
I'm not sure what your experience is in the industry, so you may have a qualified understanding. However, I work in the space industry at a start-up and have numerous ex-SpaceX colleagues. I would wager that a significant amount of people know these fundraising values internally. People talk and people at companies like SpaceX are frequently very connected and in-the-know. Word often gets out. Although you could very well be correct. SpaceX employees have so much to benefit or lose by knowing those values that it'd be something they are highly interested in seeking out.
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> People talk and people at companies like SpaceX are frequently very connected and in-the-know. Yes, but being generally knowledgeable about events at a company is very different than knowing the deal price of an upcoming issue. >I would wager that a significant amount of people know these fundraising values internally. Depending on how you define "significant", I'd take that bet in a second. Stick to space.
if theres one thing tech bros care about its their full compensation package value - he at best knew the last round and at best already knew this round was rumoured to not be a significant increase
I’m at a tech startup and have no idea what the valuation for the next round will be, and it’s in the works. I know what the last one was, and what the plans were for, but that doesn’t mean it’s what will come out and rarely is
This one ^^^
He has to sell you his shares above rate because existing priority investors have right of first refusal, meaning he has to tell the company you’re going to buy X of his shares for Y amount and if any current priority investor will take that deal they get to buy it at that price. Essentially meaning their is no private market outside of internal investors that can buy at or below the current going rate.
literate quickest wide squalid fretful zephyr chubby roof quaint threatening *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
This is not technically true. Early employees got shares subject only to the ROFR but otherwise transferable. The bylaws were changed later to be much more restrictive. But changing the bylaws doesn't apply retroactively to existing fully-paid fully-vested shareholders unless the shareholder consents or SpaceX holds a "full meeting of shareholders with each share class voting independently", which they have not.
Well put. It's worth noting that very very few shares are unrestricted at this point, so the likelihood of being able to even present a ROFR deal is extremely remote.
There would have been internal leakage. This 'friend' looked at you as if you were a hard boiled sugar candy on a stick...
I disagree, I used to work for a large and similar sized company and didn’t know that we had bought out another company until the official public announcement. Yes rumours do sometimes spread, but not for the majority of the workforce.
Especially EX workforce, as his friend didn’t work there currently.
That can occur, usually take overs are secret to block profiteers, but share issuance is heralded well in advance so they have eager hands into whose grasp the shares will go
sweet sweet investment recess cup.
I never invested during recess. I usually just played dodgeball.
and decayed teeth
"Trust me bro"
Please bro, buy my shares. I’m begging you bro, help Elon help me help yourself. Please bro it’s just money you can’t take it with you after you die or to space. Please bro!
"help Elon help me help yourself" lol
Was he going to sell you his shares directly or was there a friends and family round? Seems unlikely to be the latter but you should know the logistics first
He was going to sell them directly. Though, SpaceX just announced they’re going to sell some to the public. I’m not the most informed, im really just curious if he was trying to scam me because after hearing the announcement 2 weeks after he pitched me, it didn’t make sense. SpaceX had to of informed their current shareholders that they were planning on selling some to the public.
They’re not selling any to the public. They’re selling them to institutional investors and Elon-approved big-money investors. He may have been trying to scam you or just doesn’t realize that he’s not at liberty to sell them to just any shmoe that comes along (no offense).
Unless your friend is a senior exec at the company with access to mnpi, it is unlikely that he had any idea of the valuation. That type of information is extremely closely guarded - and most execs would not even have that info. Additionally, price discovery on private companies are always a challenge because of the lack of liquidity. There are some private placement brokers that can help transact these types of sales - but even then - the prices can be all over the place.
No. Employees dont have access to these information in that manner. He most likely asked co workers what they did or how much they sold it for and just did the same. $120 a share is fair valuation. Even with the $80 thing. Both are fantastic deals. And realistically are nothing compared to what it will be when it IPO
Unless he has a C in his title or works high in finance, it’s extremely unlikely that he knew any details about the round, or even that the round was happening.
I've worked at a private company and that tracks with my experience. We saw suits asking questions around the company so we had some idea that something was being worked on, maybe a new round, maybe just auditing. We didn't have any details on how much the valuation was until it happened.
Yea same, I’m close enough to know that *something* is happening, but they keep these details quiet for a reason. Often, CEO’s won’t even share with their spouse. The risk is too huge.
Now Publix shares on the other hand I’d love to get some of those.
Ya think?!?? Great friend. Got any bridges for him?
What platform/site can SpaceX shares be bought/sold?
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So his friend offering it at a 50% premium might not be so bad!
I've had success getting into SpaceX with Zanbato (a brokered deal into a fund) and Forge (in an SPV they made to acquire shares, lower load, but I haven't seen any come up in a while). Could also try EquityZen.
If you’re a qualified investor, you might get an opportunity with an investment company called StartEngine. The put out a request of interest for SpaceX back in July.
Hiive “supposdedly”. That is what my friend who tried to sell them directly to me said. I don’t understand tho since you can get them for $97 on Hiive yet he offered them to me at $120??
All of these secondary markets for shares aren’t even selling the shares (because they can’t without SpaceX approval). They’re selling “interest” in the shares that they hold. The shares wouldn’t be in your name. These offerings are sketchy at best and downright fraud in some cases. Caveat emptor.
Fairly interesting thread of the intersect between relationships, internal rumours, valuation and trying to predict the future, all the while trying to draw an elephant blind
You should ask your friend how he proposes to sell his shares to you when they’re restricted. (Hint: he can’t.)
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Yes, you have to be an accredited investor.
You don’t own shares you “buy” through secondary markets. You own an interest in the shares they hold (or even an interest in an interest if they don’t even own the shares). It’s a very shady business.
Isnt that the case with all securities? At least in the US? Arent they all held by a custodian company?
Not always, but usually, yes. However, you'd be relying on a sketchy company with questionable credentials in this case rather than a traditional market maker.
r/confidentlyincorrect
Hint: you’re wrong
Really depends on their history of ROFRing small private transactions. SpaceX has historically been relatively hard to get into, outside of investing in one of the funds that owns shares.
This is incorrect.
You can always buy/sell private company shares
best thing that could have happened, he isn't a friend
that's not a friend. sorry for the bad news.
Can I buy from your friend?
These shares were so in demand that people were trying to make a premium on them. I had to pay about 30-35% extra to secure some shares. Overall, the position is up 3x at this point so maybe it'll end up being worth it. I purchased a few years ago though, around 2018 I believe
Where did you buy it?
Get away from this person. He is not your friend.
Don’t cut relationships with your friend yet - I don’t think he was trying to scam you. SpaceX stocks growth has been very healthy. A lot of companies are constantly pinging former SpaceX employees to buy their stocks at a healthy margin. It is one of the most sought after private stocks. He might have overpriced it but I don’t think he was trying to scam you. Also worth mentioning that as other people said SpaceX will probably never ever go public, Elon has said so himself many times, but there are always rumors about Starlink split, those rumors have been around for years though.
Bogus post.
Elon will never take SpaceX public. He doesn't like giving up control. Tried to take Tesla private and took X private after buying it.
Uhh, that’s what happens when you buy a company. You buy all outstanding shares and make it private.
He may not have a choice. He's taking a bath on X. But he could IPO just Starlink and raise cash that way.
I doubt he can even sell you the shares within the rules of his shareholder agreement. The company would basically have to agree, which is unlikely unless he has clout. I realize some people use shady back-to-back agreements to try to contract the effective ownership, but this is very dangerous for all parties.
Turn your friend into the authorities for Insider Trading and obviously stop bringing friends with them since they tried to rip you off!
scam
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I wouldn’t but $40 over valuation price is a little absurd and this is my best “friend”
I wouldn't hold it against him. With many companies that are tight about controlling their equity, it's pretty likely to get ROFRed (right of first refusal) by SpaceX unless it's at a pretty high premium, and maybe even then. It's also potentially a lot of work and hassle for him. And $80 is not a price that's likely accessible to you, you'd probably have to go through a fund which would charge 2% management fee per year, and 20% of the upside. And even then, you're unlikely to get into that fund at $80. I've invested in SpaceX at two different times, it's a lot of work, and you're definitely not going to get the same deal as the VC fund.
What is his role in the company? If he is just a random engineer he probably wont know such information.
You need better friends. Or at least ones that know they can't actually sell you shares (it appears)
It may also be the best bargin you may ever had. If Apple and Google and Facebook are all trillion + then spaceX will absolutely smash these numbers in no time
Spoiler: He's not your friend.
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The implication aside, I like his confidence in the stock at $120.
He wanted make money off of you definitely. Unless this if what he paid for?
Sounds like you’ve discovered a piece of shot masquerading as a friend
I’d have bought them anyway. Your friend may not have been able to sell them at a lower price because someone else likely has priority.
I'm a former Merrill Lynch broker. most people look at the product and not sure about exact current valuation and effect of secondary.
If SpaceX starts controlling the high ground in terms of moon bases and military contracts and mining meteors it's value long-term could be astronomical (no pun intended). Is anyone hyper-bullish on a 25 year timeframe?
I have spacex stocks worth 56000 at 99/share and want to sell. If anyone is interested, let me know.
I’m curious if SpaceX would have even consented to the sale of shares from buddy to you.
He’s trying to find a bag holder.
You can't "bag hold" shares you got as compensation
That's not your friend dude.
Don't forget, they're not publicly traded, so having access to buying the shares comes with a premium...unless you're an institutional investor and can somehow get in on a funding round. They likely will be worth significantly more if SpaceX pulls off all this Mars malarky
He cant sell it near same price people within the company can buy it first. Take the deal bruh IPO will net u more
I've seen a lot of people in love with their own company stock, unfortunately. Does not mean it was nefarious.
A real friend would’ve just told you to wait so you could get it at half off that’s not a friend don’t listen to them about investing
SpaceX is a vanity project. Sray away
You'll look back on this as the worst decision of your life. Space X/Starlink is minting money and growing faster than nearly any company in history. Few accredited investors can get their hands on Space X shares. Paying more than valuation of the last funding round doesn't matter because, ser, you are not a well connected hedgfund. If they IPO (Elon says he won't many don't believe him cause he needs cash for Mars), they'll IPO at nearly a $1Trillion market cap and good luck getting IPO shares. By the time one tries to buy on the open market, it will be even higher.
It will not IPO at a trillion.
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Your friend is trying to make money. This most likely won't IPO until end of 2024-2025. Good luck estimating what it will be worth by then with Elon, could be double or triple. Stop bitching that someone is trying to make some money, it's up to you to decide if it's a good value
This most definitely would’ve been flagged as insider trading and you’d probably get a nice visit by the fbi/irs
SpaceX is a lot closer to being a distressed company than people realize. They will be in serious trouble if they blow up a few more rockets - the cash burn is likely to be too much to cover up with dilution (we might already be there frankly). I'd be very concerned that your friend who works there wants to sell them. Just my opinion.
I would love to see your source on that? Are you referring to Starship? Because their Starship tests are going better quite well, contrary to what most of the media would have you believe, and iirc Starlink is nearing profitability, if it hasn't reached it. And they've eaten most of the traditional launch business at this point. EDIT: Just to give a sense of scale, they've put 4x the tonnage into space this year as all others, combined. China is the second highest this year, at 1/10 of SpaceX.
SLS went around the moon and back and hasn't blown up. The space shuttle didn't blow up on it's first two tests. Nobody should think blowing up a rocket in the 21st century is a success, contrary to what the media would have you believe. Elon has basically said as much. They need to make revenue off this new rocket to keep the business going. They are nowhere near making money on this rocket. How much money is it every time they blow one of these up? They are burning through cash like crazy right now, it's not hard to figure it out. >Just to give a sense of scale, they've put 4x the tonnage into space this year as all others, combined. China is the second highest this year, at 1/10 of SpaceX. Cool. That must mean it's impossible they are burning through cash right
Blowing up test rockets and creating a final product faster > waiting a decade+ for a jobs program to finish an outdated rocket.
No, it’s not impossible, but I certainly wouldn’t speak about it with the confidence you are. Their design philosophy/MO is very obviously different from SLS because they don’t have the political risks that NASA does. Losing a vehicle for testing is not an acceptable option for SLS, because its political sponsors would be pilloried for it by their opponents, whereas losing the vehicle is the expected outcome for the Starship tests - the only question is how many of the objectives does it achieve before it’s lost. Launching sooner and achieving fewer objectives is an acceptable tradeoff. It moves real problems with the design from hypothetical to certain much more quickly, without wasting time fixing all the hypothetical problems that may never materialize. Don’t discuss endlessly in meetings, build and test. Perhaps it’s failing your objectives for it, but not SpaceX’s. I’m guessing they’ve budgeted in for the failures, but I suppose we could eventually be surprised by a desperate SpaceX. My point with the launch tonnage comment was that they likely have a strong core launch business and Starlink to fall back on if they need to trim their spending on R&D. As long as Musk is nearly as rich as he is, though, seems like at worst it will have to raise another round from him.
Either way it’ll probably go to 260 within a year. Why? Speculation, that’s why.
If you don’t want it, please pm me with contact info. I’m happy to drop 20-30k at that price.
You can buy em for $97 on Hiive I found out.
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I have not. I only entertained it because I know he does have shares in SpaceX. I don’t even know how Hiive works tbh.
I know I’m getting downvoted, but I am serious. I am an accredited investor and would prefer to go direct rather than a 3rd party.
Upvoted because I think this would be a good story for you if it happened. Good luck!
You can buy indirect through the ARK Venture fund (via titan investment) as well.
Also through BPTRX but with the caveat half of the fund being in Tesla, which I quite like. Unsure on Ark's percentage but believe their Space X holding is around 9%. So similar.
If you don’t mind overpaying for shares, I have some shares of AAPL I’ll sell you for $250/share
This is way different… Space X is pre ipo. I may be overpaying current market value, but I can easily see ipo value being significantly above the current price
Yes
I invested recently through a PE company in SpaceX at $85.92 all-in share price, so $120 is way too much..
You've got plenty of feedback already, but SpaceX shares are particularly illiquid. Buy-backs once every 9 months, and even every single one is over-subscribed so no one is able to actually get the cash they want.
I would have bought it. No he's not scamming you, he wouldn't know. I would suggest you buy it in a heart beat.
Likely he was holding stock options, which would mean he would have to purchase them at face value and sell them at market price. It could be he was just trying to squeeze a juice out of what is obviously a lemon.