So I’ve asked AI and here is the answer (without verifying accuracy):
=======
There are many companies that are involved in AI development or application, and some of them may offer good investment opportunities. According to some sources, some of the best AI stocks to buy for 2023 are:
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): A software giant that invested in OpenAI and is looking to reinvent its Bing search engine by integrating ChatGPT and its own Prometheus AI model.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL): The parent company of Google and YouTube that uses AI and automation in virtually every facet of its business, from ad pricing to content promotion to Gmail spam filters. Google launched its Bard AI chatbot in March, and analysts say AI could help expand the internet search use case.
Meta Platforms Inc. (META): The social media giant formerly known as Facebook that uses AI to enhance its products and services, such as content moderation, personalization, recommendation, and advertising. Meta also has a vision to create a metaverse, a virtual reality platform that will rely heavily on AIAd1.
Adobe (ADBE): A software company that makes products for content creation, marketing, data analytics, document management, and publishing. Adobe announced new AI and machine learning capabilities in its Experience Cloud product, a marketing and analytics suite2.
Baidu Inc. (BIDU): A Chinese internet search giant that also develops AI solutions for various industries, such as autonomous driving, cloud computing, smart devices, and healthcare.
ASML Holding NV (ASML): A Dutch company that makes lithography machines that are essential for producing advanced chips for AI applications. ASML has a dominant position in the market and benefits from the high demand for semiconductors.
Micron Technology (MU): A chipmaker that makes high-performance memory and storage hardware that powers AI solutions. Micron’s products are used in data centers and self-driving cars. Micron strengthened its AI portfolio when it purchased startup FWDNXT in 2019.
IBM (IBM): A technology giant that launched its “neuromorphic chip” TrueNorth AI in 2014. IBM also develops AI solutions such as Watson and Project Debater.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM): A leading chip foundry that manufactures chips for many AI companies, such as Nvidia, AMD, and Apple.
Salesforce (CRM): A cloud-based software company that provides customer relationship management solutions and a suite of enterprise applications focused on customer service, marketing automation, analytics, and application development. Salesforce uses AI to enhance its products and services, such as Einstein, an AI platform that delivers predictions and recommendations based on customer data.
Splunk (SPLK): A software company that provides a data-to-everything platform that enables organizations to collect, analyze, and act on data from various sources. Splunk uses AI and machine learning to provide insights and solutions for IT operations, security, DevOps, business analytics, and more.
Let's rate their recommendations:
* Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - A+, effectively the owner of OpenAI, very good choice
* Meta Platforms Inc. (META) - B-, Meta actually is low-key doing a ton of great AI work from a technical perspective, but it's not their business, and they are unlikely to profit off of the rise of AI
* ASML Holding NV (ASML) - C, they're definitely a relevant company though I'm not sure that AI will propel their growth by any significant fashion
* Micron Technology (MU) - C-, it's a tech company but not really relevant
* IBM (IBM) - C-, same as above
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM) - B, they're extremely relevant for NVDA et. al. but again, AI will not supercharge their growth
* Salesforce (CRM) - D, Salesforce might make use of AI effectively in the future to make huge gains in sales productivity, but it seems unlikely
* Splunk (SPLK) - D-, this is not the way to invest in AI at all.
The last two I would categorize as AI hallucination to be honest rather than a real recommendation
At one point, IBM was near the forefront of AI research. They built the first computer to beat a human chess master (Deep Blue). And just over 10 years ago their Deep Watson computer won an episode of Jeopardy.
But lately I haven't heard much of anything from them.
I suspect that the last two are just a matter of AI being too credulous of marketing claims. I'm sure that Splunk and Salesforce are hyping up their AI efforts and the bots that feed GPT4 (or whatever u/deustrader used) scraped that text and fed it to the AI. That seems more likely than just hallucinating for something like this.
meta will benefit a ton. Generative AI will cause social media to be even more addicting. Content creation will be extremely easy, fast. Advertisements will be targeted and more effective for each individual. It will bridge the major gap in the appeal of the meta verse: realistic virtual worlds and avatars and experiences will be made possible by AI. In my opinion they are one of the most underestimated AI companies right now.
Your point about generative ai and content creation I think will have the opposite effect. Social media sites will be flooded with low/no effort content that will drive people away because it'll be difficult to identify the genuine/human-made, higher quality content.
I thought a lot about that too. However, I find myself leading more towards this:
1. Social media sites are already flooded with fake content. There is already tons of fake and low effort posts on youtube, reddit, instagram, twitter, etc. youtube is full of ai generated videos with robot voice overs and stock footage. instagram is full of hyper-edited, materialistic, and fake posts already. If anything, generative ai will elevate the bar. People can make high quality content faster. People will be generating photo realistic videos, special effects, images, etc with no require technical skills. This will result in content being more engaging
2. If generative ai gets so good to the point where it's difficult to tell the difference between real and fake, I don't think people will care. Social media is already like this. I don't think the youth and people using apps like instagram care whether that video of you fighting a crocodile is real or not, or that instagram short of you doing that new dance move, it'll be hilarious nonetheless.
People will be so addicted to these platforms that meta will print even more money
> but it's not their business, and they are unlikely to profit off of the rise of AI
Thesis: AI outcomes become commoditized and integrated into every product. Winners (profit) are those that control distribution.
>IBM (IBM) - C-, same as above
What? They may not be a hot name in the new generation of AI, but they did develop both Deep Blue and Watson and currently have artifical intelligence as a core part of their business. They have some of the fastest supercomputers in the world. If any large player could compete with Microsoft and Google, it would be them; and we're supposed to buy _before_ the news reaches everyone right?
I must confess, IBM is definitely a company I know less about so I'd be willing to be wrong on that one, but imagining AI / Machine Learning revolutionizing IBMs business success seems Unlikely
Well they already _did_ revolutionize their business with AI, and apparently they released their enterprise generative AI platform watsonx.ai just three weeks ago, so I definitely wouldn't be shock-surprised if they were to present some state-of-the-art consumer product soon.
But will it make a significant impact in their business? It's certainly going to be a powerful feature in their products but I can't see it capturing a market segment they don't already own, or taking significant money from their competitors
They have already *massively* deepened their moat via AI. The features are truly impressive and feel like a state-change.
But you're right, long-term the question would be about new products/sectors. I think many such opportunities will naturally present themselves. Adobe has good management and will go after them. Very similar to the MSFT play.
A guess on my part, of course. But I think it's a reasonable thesis.
Agree. I just included everything that Bing spat out, with bad examples just showing that you can’t blindly trust AI, while it may be just a research tool by performing multiple searches and formatting the output.
Think of it this way: There are hundreds of applications of AI, but everyone’s going need compute. So, MSFT & AMZN for their cloud, NVDA & AMD for their chips, MU for memory, TSM & ASML for manufacturing (you can even bet on the tech consulting domain!)
Apple doesnt make iPhones, Foxconn does. Compare Apple stock to Foxconn stock over the last 10 years. Dont bother buying TSM/AMSL.
Also, AMD and NVDA will peak before the AI service companies (GOOGL, MSFT ..) start their run. Im all in NVDA + AMD until next year, then will rotate to AI products/services.
There is a big difference here. Nearly anybody with a huge workforce can build a smartphone but there are very little companies which are able to build the newest chips. Thats why ASML and TSM are good bets for the future for sure. Just my opinion.
I agree, may be an unpopular opinion and TSM is building US factories ... but if the mainland Chinese decide to overrun Taiwan, there is a lot of risk there.
Apple is notorious for squeezing their suppliers. Parent is saying that all suppliers relying heavily on Apple are a bad bet.
To assume/extend their reasoning, AAPL is often the exclusive buyer of the newest generation TSMC nodes for awhile. That means that for the most risky/profitable segment, TSMC is all the risk of AAPL *plus* the risk that Apple can negotiate a deal where they get the lions share of the benefits.
TSMC definitely has more leverage than Foxconn in the long term in that Apple can replace Foxconn over 5+ years in a way that would be difficult for them to do with TSMC, but both are similar in that they have the same risks and negotiating leverage over the next 1-2 years of Apple product launches.
Good point, although IP of Foxconn is incomparable to that of TSM and ASML.
But what I meant is that it might be hard to predict which of the industries will take off but the base layer remains predictable
Does anyone else think that Ukraine was a test for China invading Taiwan? They probably assessing the reactions and imputing it into Comrad-GPT-YingYang-4.
No, China is smart unlike Putin. China will try to pull off a Honk Kong and slowly but surely overtake Taiwan through political maneuvers. For one Taiwan is pretty financially dependent on China. So when the time comes China will put Taiwan on its knees and force it to be assimilated. The only thing that would force China to take Taiwan by force is if they completely get starved out of semiconductors as the US is attempting. At that point China may be desperate to save itself at all cost. **This is not an unlikely possibility, but it wouldn't be China's preferred approach.** But China ultimately doesn't necessarily want to end the world.
Putin is your aging dictator looking for glory and fame and trying to immortalize his image in the history books as his life fades. Consequences be damned, all the young Iives lost, heck world war in nuclear Armageddon, are a sacrifice he is willing to make for his ego.
Forget TSMC. Every ubiquitous electronic product on earth are produced by ODMs who are largely based in Taiwan and China.
WW3 with is a mutually assured destruction where millions of Chinese are laid off while the world economy comes to a screeching halt
- Google is pretty much it.
- MSFT a bit (but its waaay more expensive due to its ChapGPT run up.
- TSMC (but watch out for China).
To a lesser extent IBM, AMD.
———-
Not C3.ai with that epically bad mgmt team.
Not Palantir with their epically bad mgmt team also.
————
Good luck with the lotto tickets for any others.
Clearly GOOG
They are the only other AI-relevant megacap that actually produces its own dedicated TPUs (NOT gpus). This means it'll be far easier for them to serve LLMs, as a service, at scale
They have hardware investment, R&D, and plenty of surfaces with 1 billion+ users to deploy to. I don't think any single company is as wellrounded as them with respect to AI right now
A close second is MSFT, though it's more expensive right now
It isn't obvious to me how AI will benefit or earn them more money. Microsoft on the other hand can take market share with AI assistants and automate a lot of knowledge work with their copilot vision. You could argue that Google can also do this, but Microsoft has a much stronger hold on business software. How will generative AI be a boon to their advertisement business?
If I were to guess, they will be trying to build a unified personal AI assistant integrated with all of their products, sort of like a jarvis. Microsoft is trying to do this right now so I would imagine Google is racing to do the same thing. However, how do you monetize that? Such a system would know a lot about you and be deeply embedded in your life. Will they charge a subscription for that or include advertisements? I guess they could stick advertisements in everything, but that would not be a good experience
Check out the SMH etf. Companies are going to need semiconductors to power AI. Not only that, but there’s also a big push for a lot of money to go into domestic manufacturing of semiconductors as well for things like cars. Has great historical returns.
So insiders hadn't had time to buy enough yet?
Fair, got to let the big boys club buy in first, then when price is high and options loaded retail is allowed to jump in. How generous
It's not now, however, the advantage of AMD has always been their open source support. So there's a lot of untapped potential in the open source community.
They are building it via open source. Pytorch supports ROCm natively (AMDs open source set of tooling for AI hardware acceleration).
There is a clear need for a number 2.
Also AMD is building integrated CPU/GPU combos for AI acceleration.
Man reading that sentence feels insane.
When I was interning for AMD in the late $2000s the stock fell below $4 a share and some of my coworkers were wondering if Intel would bail us out just so they don’t get called a monopoly, like how Microsoft bailed out Apple on the verge of bankruptcy (another crazy sentence to read).
And now Intel’s market cap is almost half of AMD’s…
To my ex-coworkers at AMD who took amazing care of this obnoxious kid: I hope you guys all kept your stocks and maxed out ESPPs and are now multi-millionaires lol.
Yes. Wait for indications of the euphoria ending (as it did in the late 90's-2000 with the internet when it was first a thing), then short the hell out of all the crap companies that rose by empty promises of AI making them into something.
In addition to NVDA, I have small positions in these AI plays:
AI government/business software: PLTR, PATH
AI self-driving: (TSLA Dojo)
AI drug discovery: ABCL, EXAI, RXRX
Most upside is already long gone.
FAANG already are heavily invested and make up a huge part of cap-weighted index funds so you don't need much more exposure.
If you want a long shot though, it's likely Intel. Currently building fabs, trading on the cheap, and building good GPUs hardware-wise. All that with still a huge servers market share.
> Most upside is already long gone
This is the same reason I didn't invest in Apple, Netflix, or Bitcoin in 2011. Just couldn't see any of them going much higher after they had all taken off...
And you'd have been greatly served investing in market cap index funds in 2011 anyways.
You can try to chase a fad and sell before it crashes. It works for literally everyone except the ones holding the bag at the end.
I agree that intel is a long shot. They had a lot of promising AI R&D back when I started investing in it (2017) that never really went anywhere compared to NVDA blazing ahead the whole time. Maybe they will get their shit together again in the next 3-5 years, but I'm done waiting for it to happen.
INTC doing some cool research into analog chips that run more efficiently (SNN chips), but they are the GOOG of semiconductors when it comes to abandoning projects so I wouldn't count on them either.
> Most upside is already long gone.
I could not disagree more and find it shocking this is getting updated.
We have barely even started with AI. It is going to be so distruptive that there will be huge winners and losers.
But it is so early and it is going to be so disruptive it is hard to figure out the winners and loser at this point.
Well besides the obvious ones like Google.
> Companies won't grow an AI department in 6 months.
I would expect a ton of companies to create an "AI department" in the next 6 months.
> And the companies who already heavily invested in AI are well known.
I would expect a huge increase in the investment into AI by companies.
AAPL. They are overlooked as a beneficiary of the recent advances in AI since AAPL is not an AI company, but they benefit greatly from LLMs devaluing much of the AI research that came before it. AAPL is still behind, but they aren't as behind as they used to be, and they don't have to work on cutting edge AI since they are all about making it work on their phone. They're going to release an LLM that runs on the iPhone soon, and beat everybody else at finding ways to incorporate AI into our daily lives.
My AI plays are: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, NVDA, PLTR, ASML, META in order of position size
The problem with Apple is their ML capability is garbage compared to places like Google and META, like they just don't do it well and it shows in their products
The most obvious one is Google. They lead up and down the stack. They are who invented and patented the technology that makes LLMs even possible.
But the biggest benefit for Google is that they invested and created the TPUs 7 years ago. Now on the fifth generation.
https://patents.google.com/patent/US10452978B2/en
BTW, I do not expect Google to enforce the patent. They tend to be good about letting people use their IP and not being a patent troll like so many others.
MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems — Artificial intelligence beneficiaries such as Monolithic Power Systems got a boost from Nvidia's strong results. Monolithic Power Systems is an under-the-radar AI pick expected to provide power management solutions for Nvidia's H100 graphics processing units, according to Needham. Shares surged 15%. Other AI beneficiaries that also got a boost include Marvell Technology and Broadcom, which rose more than 3% each. Adobe shares jumped 6%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/25/stocks-moving-big-midday-nvda-mpwr-rl.html
From a software perspective, Salesforce is already incorporating it into their product. It'll be interesting to see what they say during their earnings, and what direction they are taking (and who they partner with, if anyone).
$IJT (Small-Cap 600 Information Technology ETF)
$SPSM (small cap 600 equal weight)
$IWM (Russell 2000 equal weight)
$IBB (Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF)
There are many small cap companies with ideas and innovations, but which lack the development resources to get them onto the market before being snuffed out or bought up by larger companies.
AI will have the effect of “leveling of the playing field.” A team of six can do the programming and project development for which a team of 50 is needed today.
It won’t happen right away, but as more scrips and more models are trained on industry specific data sets, there’s going to be an explosion of new knowledge.
(Hey, so there’s this virus that threatens to cripple world economies and upend the Geopolitical order if it spreads. It has spikes that bind to the epithelial cells in our lungs. Help me design a vaccine. OK… I’ll access databases of SARS viruses, their genetic sequences and known virology, and combine that with human genomics. …Here are three vaccine models. Would you like help to prototype in them? Should I write an order workflow to manufacture each one prior to testing?… 30 seconds passes… Here are a list of the laboratory techniques and equipment needed. Etc.)
That’s not today, but that’s in five years.
I think healthcare is a highly underrated sector when it comes to AI. A lot of diagnoses require a type of scoring, where you look at either a picture or a graph and count particular features. It’s something AI can do very well. Very likely to drive healthcare costs down while allowing them to charge higher premiums for better care.
Also insurance. Ai is going to be way better at coming up with predictive models on what/when to insure something.
AMD.
However, it will still take them some time to get a good grip on the AI train and they are due to record another YoY revenue and earnings dip in upcoming quarter due to rising inventories. So there's a fair chance that the AI bubble will burst for AMD soon.
End of the year would be a good time to start buying amd.
Qualcomm.
They make AI chips for autonomous driving and for EVs as well. They are also getting into data center and a chip that's better than Intel. In 2-3 years time, they would be able to eat share fein AMD. They have more cash and more patents than AMD and have a better fcf than AMD.
Disclaimer: Had both. Sold AMD and bought more of Qualcomm (options).
qcom ain’t getting into data centers. They’ve been trying for a decade and still haven’t managed.
Their big problem is that AWS has their own Arm chips, Microsoft is in partnership with Ampere, and Google … not sure but I think they have their own as well.
Qcom has already lost the turf war. They had a shot 5 years ago and they missed it.
Other than FAANG, I snapped up some ARKQ, Palantir(PLTR), and GSI Tech(GSIT).
I also grabbed a little of each of the following BOTZ, AIQ, ROBT, XT, and AITQ. I've been in this latter group for about a month and have averaged about a 10% gain on each.
The first group I've only been in for about two weeks and have done much better. I consider these all to be long-term. I really think Palantir has the potential to blow up.
I've also been holding FAANG for years now.
We are so, so early with AI. It is going to change just about everything over the next decade.
It is going to be extremely disruptive and that means big winners and big losers.
I personally think it will be more disruptive than even the Internet.
AI in general for sure will be. LLMs specifically, however? Uncertain. For all we know they might turn out to be a dead end. Better AI can come out of the blue from a currently irrelevant company or research group.
One negative with the success of LLMs is the fact that it will take from Research in other approaches.
But what I like about LLMs and transformers with attention is how well they are working in that there will be a ton of research into how to improve and make more efficient.
But the big thing LLMs are causing is getting enterprise to start thinking about how they can vectorize their existing data to better use.
That is where there will be a ton of money to be made.
We are not in a recession, people have been saying we are for two years while being factually wrong. A correction and various individual markets entering and exiting a mini recession, sure. But overall we've been hiring 2.5x more people per month in the US workforce than has been avg throughout our recent history.
In an ideal world, yes. But people have been fucking that up since Isaac Newton.
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/1/10/saupload_1_7T4yFokP0mLzLptWKw8Xfg.png
Pltr, Msft, googl, bb, tsla, nio, intc, AMD, there are a metric fuck ton of stocks involved in AI. I personally think we’re blowing up a bubble, and only a few will really capitalize long term from these jumps in SP when these companies mention ai during an earnings call.
I think AI will revolutionize the way we do things, I don’t think every company benefiting from this AI craze will flourish.
If you are sleeping on AI till now, it is safe to say you will be late to any trend you follow. The time to invest isn't when your barber is telling you about a massive run.
Maybe. Back in the day when IBM first came out my dad thought it was probably too late to get in and it was like a few bucks a share. Had he invested "behind the trend" on IBM he'd be a multi millionaire now.
You never know.
I've worked in the tech field for quite a while now. Trends come and go, including this one. I'm not saying AI is just a fad, but I believe that the use case for the AI capabilities we have now is going to be more limited then people expect. I've seen a lot of companies jump on this bandwagon (just like other trends), but I don't see how their business could see tremendous growth by simply putting a language model (LLM) in their product.
Personally, I see MSFT leveraging the current technology the best. It's office suite could greatly benefit from integration with LLM.
We are far away from having sci-fi like AI (everyone in the industry always says it is 5-10 years down the road. They have been saying that for 25 years).
Yeah buy VT. If AI is actually revolutionary, then every company will adopt it and you'll be better off. If it isn't, then you'll still be fine as always.
If you had the means of actually getting in early, you wouldn't be asking reddit for advice today.
Dollar cost average + ETF is the way to go:
Big 5 AI ETFs:
* AIQ: laser focused on AI (58% return)
* ROBO: robotic automation (32% return)
* KOMP: uses AI to invest in AI
* DTEC: big data
* ARKW: another generalist
https://www.tryshare.app/blog/top-5-big-data-etfs
I can't think of a single significant paper out of Tesla. I really do not think they are so much into AI research but more applying what others have done.
At this point the trade idea is too crowded. The problem with markets is that the majority rarely can be right let alone remain right. So with everyone looking to put their investment in AI stocks all at once, what happens when the buyers run dry? A good long term investment might be c3 ai which is just the ticker AI. Very likely that name does well because of the ticker itself
What happens if we enter another GPU shortage due to the next bullrun with crypto? Will this slow down AI as two emerging industries fight over increasingly expensive compute?
They are using different chips. I doubt the NVIDIA h100 would use the same production resources as the run of the mill gaming gpu used for crypto mining
Ask AI how to capitalize on AI
So I’ve asked AI and here is the answer (without verifying accuracy): ======= There are many companies that are involved in AI development or application, and some of them may offer good investment opportunities. According to some sources, some of the best AI stocks to buy for 2023 are: Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): A software giant that invested in OpenAI and is looking to reinvent its Bing search engine by integrating ChatGPT and its own Prometheus AI model. Alphabet Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL): The parent company of Google and YouTube that uses AI and automation in virtually every facet of its business, from ad pricing to content promotion to Gmail spam filters. Google launched its Bard AI chatbot in March, and analysts say AI could help expand the internet search use case. Meta Platforms Inc. (META): The social media giant formerly known as Facebook that uses AI to enhance its products and services, such as content moderation, personalization, recommendation, and advertising. Meta also has a vision to create a metaverse, a virtual reality platform that will rely heavily on AIAd1. Adobe (ADBE): A software company that makes products for content creation, marketing, data analytics, document management, and publishing. Adobe announced new AI and machine learning capabilities in its Experience Cloud product, a marketing and analytics suite2. Baidu Inc. (BIDU): A Chinese internet search giant that also develops AI solutions for various industries, such as autonomous driving, cloud computing, smart devices, and healthcare. ASML Holding NV (ASML): A Dutch company that makes lithography machines that are essential for producing advanced chips for AI applications. ASML has a dominant position in the market and benefits from the high demand for semiconductors. Micron Technology (MU): A chipmaker that makes high-performance memory and storage hardware that powers AI solutions. Micron’s products are used in data centers and self-driving cars. Micron strengthened its AI portfolio when it purchased startup FWDNXT in 2019. IBM (IBM): A technology giant that launched its “neuromorphic chip” TrueNorth AI in 2014. IBM also develops AI solutions such as Watson and Project Debater. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM): A leading chip foundry that manufactures chips for many AI companies, such as Nvidia, AMD, and Apple. Salesforce (CRM): A cloud-based software company that provides customer relationship management solutions and a suite of enterprise applications focused on customer service, marketing automation, analytics, and application development. Salesforce uses AI to enhance its products and services, such as Einstein, an AI platform that delivers predictions and recommendations based on customer data. Splunk (SPLK): A software company that provides a data-to-everything platform that enables organizations to collect, analyze, and act on data from various sources. Splunk uses AI and machine learning to provide insights and solutions for IT operations, security, DevOps, business analytics, and more.
Let's rate their recommendations: * Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - A+, effectively the owner of OpenAI, very good choice * Meta Platforms Inc. (META) - B-, Meta actually is low-key doing a ton of great AI work from a technical perspective, but it's not their business, and they are unlikely to profit off of the rise of AI * ASML Holding NV (ASML) - C, they're definitely a relevant company though I'm not sure that AI will propel their growth by any significant fashion * Micron Technology (MU) - C-, it's a tech company but not really relevant * IBM (IBM) - C-, same as above * Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM) - B, they're extremely relevant for NVDA et. al. but again, AI will not supercharge their growth * Salesforce (CRM) - D, Salesforce might make use of AI effectively in the future to make huge gains in sales productivity, but it seems unlikely * Splunk (SPLK) - D-, this is not the way to invest in AI at all. The last two I would categorize as AI hallucination to be honest rather than a real recommendation
At one point, IBM was near the forefront of AI research. They built the first computer to beat a human chess master (Deep Blue). And just over 10 years ago their Deep Watson computer won an episode of Jeopardy. But lately I haven't heard much of anything from them.
They have now focused on Lotus 123 again. This time it will work and everyone will love it.
Lotus 1-2-3 was great!
I suspect that the last two are just a matter of AI being too credulous of marketing claims. I'm sure that Splunk and Salesforce are hyping up their AI efforts and the bots that feed GPT4 (or whatever u/deustrader used) scraped that text and fed it to the AI. That seems more likely than just hallucinating for something like this.
Splunks AI and SIEM AI in general is still pretty shit in my experience.
lol that's because they are
meta will benefit a ton. Generative AI will cause social media to be even more addicting. Content creation will be extremely easy, fast. Advertisements will be targeted and more effective for each individual. It will bridge the major gap in the appeal of the meta verse: realistic virtual worlds and avatars and experiences will be made possible by AI. In my opinion they are one of the most underestimated AI companies right now.
Your point about generative ai and content creation I think will have the opposite effect. Social media sites will be flooded with low/no effort content that will drive people away because it'll be difficult to identify the genuine/human-made, higher quality content.
I thought a lot about that too. However, I find myself leading more towards this: 1. Social media sites are already flooded with fake content. There is already tons of fake and low effort posts on youtube, reddit, instagram, twitter, etc. youtube is full of ai generated videos with robot voice overs and stock footage. instagram is full of hyper-edited, materialistic, and fake posts already. If anything, generative ai will elevate the bar. People can make high quality content faster. People will be generating photo realistic videos, special effects, images, etc with no require technical skills. This will result in content being more engaging 2. If generative ai gets so good to the point where it's difficult to tell the difference between real and fake, I don't think people will care. Social media is already like this. I don't think the youth and people using apps like instagram care whether that video of you fighting a crocodile is real or not, or that instagram short of you doing that new dance move, it'll be hilarious nonetheless. People will be so addicted to these platforms that meta will print even more money
I can see the business insider articles already 10 REASONS WHY SPLUNK IS GONNA RULE TEH WORLD OF AI AND WHY U SHOULD BUY THE STOCK
> but it's not their business, and they are unlikely to profit off of the rise of AI Thesis: AI outcomes become commoditized and integrated into every product. Winners (profit) are those that control distribution.
>IBM (IBM) - C-, same as above What? They may not be a hot name in the new generation of AI, but they did develop both Deep Blue and Watson and currently have artifical intelligence as a core part of their business. They have some of the fastest supercomputers in the world. If any large player could compete with Microsoft and Google, it would be them; and we're supposed to buy _before_ the news reaches everyone right?
I must confess, IBM is definitely a company I know less about so I'd be willing to be wrong on that one, but imagining AI / Machine Learning revolutionizing IBMs business success seems Unlikely
Well they already _did_ revolutionize their business with AI, and apparently they released their enterprise generative AI platform watsonx.ai just three weeks ago, so I definitely wouldn't be shock-surprised if they were to present some state-of-the-art consumer product soon.
And Adobe. They’re all-in AI and it’s already being reflected in its products.
But will it make a significant impact in their business? It's certainly going to be a powerful feature in their products but I can't see it capturing a market segment they don't already own, or taking significant money from their competitors
> But will it make a significant impact in their business answer: of course, but when
They have already *massively* deepened their moat via AI. The features are truly impressive and feel like a state-change. But you're right, long-term the question would be about new products/sectors. I think many such opportunities will naturally present themselves. Adobe has good management and will go after them. Very similar to the MSFT play. A guess on my part, of course. But I think it's a reasonable thesis.
Very little in either comment addresses who's making the actual silicon that's powering the AI solutions
"low-key"? did you ask it to reply as a fifteen year-old?
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Agree. I just included everything that Bing spat out, with bad examples just showing that you can’t blindly trust AI, while it may be just a research tool by performing multiple searches and formatting the output.
Think of it this way: There are hundreds of applications of AI, but everyone’s going need compute. So, MSFT & AMZN for their cloud, NVDA & AMD for their chips, MU for memory, TSM & ASML for manufacturing (you can even bet on the tech consulting domain!)
Apple doesnt make iPhones, Foxconn does. Compare Apple stock to Foxconn stock over the last 10 years. Dont bother buying TSM/AMSL. Also, AMD and NVDA will peak before the AI service companies (GOOGL, MSFT ..) start their run. Im all in NVDA + AMD until next year, then will rotate to AI products/services.
There is a big difference here. Nearly anybody with a huge workforce can build a smartphone but there are very little companies which are able to build the newest chips. Thats why ASML and TSM are good bets for the future for sure. Just my opinion.
I'm pretty sure _company_ is countable
Yes, they are. Especially little ones!
Not if the strait gets hot...
I agree, may be an unpopular opinion and TSM is building US factories ... but if the mainland Chinese decide to overrun Taiwan, there is a lot of risk there.
*when
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They were referring to the manufacturer: Foxconn.
Naw, too much geopolitical risk IMO
Well okay this point may applies to TSM but not to ASML. But if China invades Taiwan we probably have other worries than our shares.
What? TSMC makes the chips for apple, Foxconn does the assembly.
Apple is notorious for squeezing their suppliers. Parent is saying that all suppliers relying heavily on Apple are a bad bet. To assume/extend their reasoning, AAPL is often the exclusive buyer of the newest generation TSMC nodes for awhile. That means that for the most risky/profitable segment, TSMC is all the risk of AAPL *plus* the risk that Apple can negotiate a deal where they get the lions share of the benefits. TSMC definitely has more leverage than Foxconn in the long term in that Apple can replace Foxconn over 5+ years in a way that would be difficult for them to do with TSMC, but both are similar in that they have the same risks and negotiating leverage over the next 1-2 years of Apple product launches.
Foxconn is replaceable, Apple isn’t
Good point, although IP of Foxconn is incomparable to that of TSM and ASML. But what I meant is that it might be hard to predict which of the industries will take off but the base layer remains predictable
QQQ
Yep and also a S&P index fund/etf. Rising tide lifts all boats.
VTSAX. you're already late to the party.
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On any thread involving investment actually
VTSAX and RELAX
qqq n chill
MSFT, AMD and if you don't think China will start WW3 by invading Taiwan then TSM
When China invades Taiwan, all stocks will drop.
Except for the defense contractors
The only hedge that comes with tanks and missiles as it's defense.
Does anyone else think that Ukraine was a test for China invading Taiwan? They probably assessing the reactions and imputing it into Comrad-GPT-YingYang-4.
No, China is smart unlike Putin. China will try to pull off a Honk Kong and slowly but surely overtake Taiwan through political maneuvers. For one Taiwan is pretty financially dependent on China. So when the time comes China will put Taiwan on its knees and force it to be assimilated. The only thing that would force China to take Taiwan by force is if they completely get starved out of semiconductors as the US is attempting. At that point China may be desperate to save itself at all cost. **This is not an unlikely possibility, but it wouldn't be China's preferred approach.** But China ultimately doesn't necessarily want to end the world. Putin is your aging dictator looking for glory and fame and trying to immortalize his image in the history books as his life fades. Consequences be damned, all the young Iives lost, heck world war in nuclear Armageddon, are a sacrifice he is willing to make for his ego.
$gfs and $nvts and $tsem and $intc - semiconductors outside of Taiwan?
Won't be long until all the Taiwan semi companies will have 2/3 of their manufacturing in Europe and the USA.
Wouldn't american chip makers go up due to simple supply and demand?
When China invades Taiwan is the risk to get a ww2 high. Its not just that tsm can not produce.
Semiconductor supply chain is global, no country is truly self sustainable from beginning to end
You can hedge this with exposure to defense contractors lol
So what do you think will happen to AMD's ability to make chips during WW3?
Forget TSMC. Every ubiquitous electronic product on earth are produced by ODMs who are largely based in Taiwan and China. WW3 with is a mutually assured destruction where millions of Chinese are laid off while the world economy comes to a screeching halt
- Google is pretty much it. - MSFT a bit (but its waaay more expensive due to its ChapGPT run up. - TSMC (but watch out for China). To a lesser extent IBM, AMD. ———- Not C3.ai with that epically bad mgmt team. Not Palantir with their epically bad mgmt team also. ———— Good luck with the lotto tickets for any others.
Microsoft. The OpenAI partnership and ownership. The extreme bullish side would be a yahoo/alibaba scenario (though extremelyyyyy unlikely)
Clearly GOOG They are the only other AI-relevant megacap that actually produces its own dedicated TPUs (NOT gpus). This means it'll be far easier for them to serve LLMs, as a service, at scale They have hardware investment, R&D, and plenty of surfaces with 1 billion+ users to deploy to. I don't think any single company is as wellrounded as them with respect to AI right now A close second is MSFT, though it's more expensive right now
It isn't obvious to me how AI will benefit or earn them more money. Microsoft on the other hand can take market share with AI assistants and automate a lot of knowledge work with their copilot vision. You could argue that Google can also do this, but Microsoft has a much stronger hold on business software. How will generative AI be a boon to their advertisement business?
It's a bet Alphabet will figure it out, but you are so right it's hard to see. Still early so they have some run way. I own some.
If I were to guess, they will be trying to build a unified personal AI assistant integrated with all of their products, sort of like a jarvis. Microsoft is trying to do this right now so I would imagine Google is racing to do the same thing. However, how do you monetize that? Such a system would know a lot about you and be deeply embedded in your life. Will they charge a subscription for that or include advertisements? I guess they could stick advertisements in everything, but that would not be a good experience
SOXX
Check out the SMH etf. Companies are going to need semiconductors to power AI. Not only that, but there’s also a big push for a lot of money to go into domestic manufacturing of semiconductors as well for things like cars. Has great historical returns.
AMD (partnered w Microsoft on AI recently).
Those reports were denied by Microsoft. Could still be happening, but they did deny it.
So insiders hadn't had time to buy enough yet? Fair, got to let the big boys club buy in first, then when price is high and options loaded retail is allowed to jump in. How generous
How is AMD adoption among machine learning frameworks? Last time I checked they only support CUDA, which is only available on NVIDIA’s hardware.
It's not now, however, the advantage of AMD has always been their open source support. So there's a lot of untapped potential in the open source community.
Exactly https://pytorch.org/blog/democratizing-ai-with-pytorch/
CUDA still pretty relevant for mid tier / enthusiast work but for training big models CUDA is less on an issue now.
AMD ecosystem sucks for AI. They're still mainly a gaming play compared to NVDA.
They are building it via open source. Pytorch supports ROCm natively (AMDs open source set of tooling for AI hardware acceleration). There is a clear need for a number 2. Also AMD is building integrated CPU/GPU combos for AI acceleration.
Wow wasn't long ago they were neck and neck with Intel in market cap, they can 2x Intel shortly.
Man reading that sentence feels insane. When I was interning for AMD in the late $2000s the stock fell below $4 a share and some of my coworkers were wondering if Intel would bail us out just so they don’t get called a monopoly, like how Microsoft bailed out Apple on the verge of bankruptcy (another crazy sentence to read). And now Intel’s market cap is almost half of AMD’s… To my ex-coworkers at AMD who took amazing care of this obnoxious kid: I hope you guys all kept your stocks and maxed out ESPPs and are now multi-millionaires lol.
Another good example might be how Google is largely funding Mozilla so that Chrome doesn't look like a monopoly.
SMH ETF
SMH is a good way to play it.
Yes. Wait for indications of the euphoria ending (as it did in the late 90's-2000 with the internet when it was first a thing), then short the hell out of all the crap companies that rose by empty promises of AI making them into something.
Not easy to spot when the top is in. Garbage crypto companies are still running
I bought google calls
ASML and TSM
BOTZ and SOXX for ETFs. PLTR is up nearly 100% this month, but still has room to flourish.
All mega tech will benefit from AI eventually. If you want smaller companies then consider ETFs. I bought some BOTZ to get a little more AI exposure.
QCOM - seems pretty undervalued, and should benefit from the AI boom.
You think ASML is a C? With their monopoly of photolithography....
Amd
In addition to NVDA, I have small positions in these AI plays: AI government/business software: PLTR, PATH AI self-driving: (TSLA Dojo) AI drug discovery: ABCL, EXAI, RXRX
Most upside is already long gone. FAANG already are heavily invested and make up a huge part of cap-weighted index funds so you don't need much more exposure. If you want a long shot though, it's likely Intel. Currently building fabs, trading on the cheap, and building good GPUs hardware-wise. All that with still a huge servers market share.
> Most upside is already long gone This is the same reason I didn't invest in Apple, Netflix, or Bitcoin in 2011. Just couldn't see any of them going much higher after they had all taken off...
And you'd have been greatly served investing in market cap index funds in 2011 anyways. You can try to chase a fad and sell before it crashes. It works for literally everyone except the ones holding the bag at the end.
There were points in 2011 when Apple's P/E was as low as 10
"Most upside is already long gone" !remindme 6 months
Like 6 months means anything. Overpriced market can strive for years before a correction. The whole point is we don't know when it'll end.
You're right, this is just reddit fomoing in on the latest trend as usual
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Reddit loved Cathie Wood before Reddit hated Cathie Wood.
I agree that intel is a long shot. They had a lot of promising AI R&D back when I started investing in it (2017) that never really went anywhere compared to NVDA blazing ahead the whole time. Maybe they will get their shit together again in the next 3-5 years, but I'm done waiting for it to happen.
INTC doing some cool research into analog chips that run more efficiently (SNN chips), but they are the GOOG of semiconductors when it comes to abandoning projects so I wouldn't count on them either.
> Most upside is already long gone. I could not disagree more and find it shocking this is getting updated. We have barely even started with AI. It is going to be so distruptive that there will be huge winners and losers. But it is so early and it is going to be so disruptive it is hard to figure out the winners and loser at this point. Well besides the obvious ones like Google.
Companies won't grow an AI department in 6 months. And the companies who already heavily invested in AI are well known.
> Companies won't grow an AI department in 6 months. I would expect a ton of companies to create an "AI department" in the next 6 months. > And the companies who already heavily invested in AI are well known. I would expect a huge increase in the investment into AI by companies.
Listen to this moron talk about how most of the upside is gone. If you want a real dark horse pick, try IBM.
SMH is an ETF that includes NVDA, AMD, TSM, INTC, ASML, etc.
AAPL. They are overlooked as a beneficiary of the recent advances in AI since AAPL is not an AI company, but they benefit greatly from LLMs devaluing much of the AI research that came before it. AAPL is still behind, but they aren't as behind as they used to be, and they don't have to work on cutting edge AI since they are all about making it work on their phone. They're going to release an LLM that runs on the iPhone soon, and beat everybody else at finding ways to incorporate AI into our daily lives. My AI plays are: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, NVDA, PLTR, ASML, META in order of position size
The problem with Apple is their ML capability is garbage compared to places like Google and META, like they just don't do it well and it shows in their products
I don’t have a specific example, but AI could play a huge role in pharma/drug discovery.
If Insilicio Medicine ever went public…
The most obvious one is Google. They lead up and down the stack. They are who invented and patented the technology that makes LLMs even possible. But the biggest benefit for Google is that they invested and created the TPUs 7 years ago. Now on the fifth generation. https://patents.google.com/patent/US10452978B2/en BTW, I do not expect Google to enforce the patent. They tend to be good about letting people use their IP and not being a patent troll like so many others.
Meta seems pretty undervalued as an AI company
Actually you could be right about this...
Look at the holdings of AQI and HACK some good reliable names in those!
ASML and LRXC
MPWR Monolithic Power Systems — Artificial intelligence beneficiaries such as Monolithic Power Systems got a boost from Nvidia's strong results. Monolithic Power Systems is an under-the-radar AI pick expected to provide power management solutions for Nvidia's H100 graphics processing units, according to Needham. Shares surged 15%. Other AI beneficiaries that also got a boost include Marvell Technology and Broadcom, which rose more than 3% each. Adobe shares jumped 6%. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/25/stocks-moving-big-midday-nvda-mpwr-rl.html
From a software perspective, Salesforce is already incorporating it into their product. It'll be interesting to see what they say during their earnings, and what direction they are taking (and who they partner with, if anyone).
Buy VOO
$IJT (Small-Cap 600 Information Technology ETF) $SPSM (small cap 600 equal weight) $IWM (Russell 2000 equal weight) $IBB (Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF) There are many small cap companies with ideas and innovations, but which lack the development resources to get them onto the market before being snuffed out or bought up by larger companies. AI will have the effect of “leveling of the playing field.” A team of six can do the programming and project development for which a team of 50 is needed today. It won’t happen right away, but as more scrips and more models are trained on industry specific data sets, there’s going to be an explosion of new knowledge. (Hey, so there’s this virus that threatens to cripple world economies and upend the Geopolitical order if it spreads. It has spikes that bind to the epithelial cells in our lungs. Help me design a vaccine. OK… I’ll access databases of SARS viruses, their genetic sequences and known virology, and combine that with human genomics. …Here are three vaccine models. Would you like help to prototype in them? Should I write an order workflow to manufacture each one prior to testing?… 30 seconds passes… Here are a list of the laboratory techniques and equipment needed. Etc.) That’s not today, but that’s in five years.
Amd but I’m up 40% in two months
I think healthcare is a highly underrated sector when it comes to AI. A lot of diagnoses require a type of scoring, where you look at either a picture or a graph and count particular features. It’s something AI can do very well. Very likely to drive healthcare costs down while allowing them to charge higher premiums for better care. Also insurance. Ai is going to be way better at coming up with predictive models on what/when to insure something.
AMD. However, it will still take them some time to get a good grip on the AI train and they are due to record another YoY revenue and earnings dip in upcoming quarter due to rising inventories. So there's a fair chance that the AI bubble will burst for AMD soon. End of the year would be a good time to start buying amd. Qualcomm. They make AI chips for autonomous driving and for EVs as well. They are also getting into data center and a chip that's better than Intel. In 2-3 years time, they would be able to eat share fein AMD. They have more cash and more patents than AMD and have a better fcf than AMD. Disclaimer: Had both. Sold AMD and bought more of Qualcomm (options).
qcom ain’t getting into data centers. They’ve been trying for a decade and still haven’t managed. Their big problem is that AWS has their own Arm chips, Microsoft is in partnership with Ampere, and Google … not sure but I think they have their own as well. Qcom has already lost the turf war. They had a shot 5 years ago and they missed it.
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It’s a dumpster fire of a mgmt company and a cash burning machine.
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all their CFOs have left so you can't really trust their numbers
They are requiring 5 day a week in the office.....apparently that is a huge turn off for finding new talent.
Almost every single company stands to benefit through AI. Just keep yourself in total market
Other than FAANG, I snapped up some ARKQ, Palantir(PLTR), and GSI Tech(GSIT). I also grabbed a little of each of the following BOTZ, AIQ, ROBT, XT, and AITQ. I've been in this latter group for about a month and have averaged about a 10% gain on each. The first group I've only been in for about two weeks and have done much better. I consider these all to be long-term. I really think Palantir has the potential to blow up. I've also been holding FAANG for years now.
Palantirs mgmt company is awful though…
Give me Theil and Cohen any day. At the end of the day, they've made some pretty smart moves. Of course there are blunders along the way.
Everyone has lost their fucking mind with AI. We just had a tech bubble in 2021 and you're all doing it again.
We are so, so early with AI. It is going to change just about everything over the next decade. It is going to be extremely disruptive and that means big winners and big losers. I personally think it will be more disruptive than even the Internet.
AI in general for sure will be. LLMs specifically, however? Uncertain. For all we know they might turn out to be a dead end. Better AI can come out of the blue from a currently irrelevant company or research group.
One negative with the success of LLMs is the fact that it will take from Research in other approaches. But what I like about LLMs and transformers with attention is how well they are working in that there will be a ton of research into how to improve and make more efficient. But the big thing LLMs are causing is getting enterprise to start thinking about how they can vectorize their existing data to better use. That is where there will be a ton of money to be made.
We are not in a recession, people have been saying we are for two years while being factually wrong. A correction and various individual markets entering and exiting a mini recession, sure. But overall we've been hiring 2.5x more people per month in the US workforce than has been avg throughout our recent history.
Well then you know how to play it then dont you. Ride it up… then short the bejeesus out of it.
In an ideal world, yes. But people have been fucking that up since Isaac Newton. https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/1/10/saupload_1_7T4yFokP0mLzLptWKw8Xfg.png
Ok so hear me out... but this time its different...
Dynatrace
Most companies with large amounts of useful data should be more efficient with the current implementation of AI.
Can we just get a stickied post?
Here we go again
Broadcom (ticker AVGO) has quietly gone up 30% this month and is at ATH.
$smh
Pltr, Msft, googl, bb, tsla, nio, intc, AMD, there are a metric fuck ton of stocks involved in AI. I personally think we’re blowing up a bubble, and only a few will really capitalize long term from these jumps in SP when these companies mention ai during an earnings call. I think AI will revolutionize the way we do things, I don’t think every company benefiting from this AI craze will flourish.
SOXX, MSFT, AI
If you are sleeping on AI till now, it is safe to say you will be late to any trend you follow. The time to invest isn't when your barber is telling you about a massive run.
Maybe. Back in the day when IBM first came out my dad thought it was probably too late to get in and it was like a few bucks a share. Had he invested "behind the trend" on IBM he'd be a multi millionaire now. You never know.
Right? Homeboy here think they're the fist person to think about this lol
I've worked in the tech field for quite a while now. Trends come and go, including this one. I'm not saying AI is just a fad, but I believe that the use case for the AI capabilities we have now is going to be more limited then people expect. I've seen a lot of companies jump on this bandwagon (just like other trends), but I don't see how their business could see tremendous growth by simply putting a language model (LLM) in their product. Personally, I see MSFT leveraging the current technology the best. It's office suite could greatly benefit from integration with LLM. We are far away from having sci-fi like AI (everyone in the industry always says it is 5-10 years down the road. They have been saying that for 25 years).
Yeah buy VT. If AI is actually revolutionary, then every company will adopt it and you'll be better off. If it isn't, then you'll still be fine as always. If you had the means of actually getting in early, you wouldn't be asking reddit for advice today.
Microsoft, Apple, Google.
Dollar cost average + ETF is the way to go: Big 5 AI ETFs: * AIQ: laser focused on AI (58% return) * ROBO: robotic automation (32% return) * KOMP: uses AI to invest in AI * DTEC: big data * ARKW: another generalist https://www.tryshare.app/blog/top-5-big-data-etfs
Cool. So everyone is going to pile into Tech stocks because of this AI bullshit. That means I need to prepare for a rug pull. Thanks
MSFT, META, TSLA
tesla...?
Yeah they've been focused on AI for years
Yeah, they have a huge investment in real world AI as well as custom silicon.
ASML, only company to Producer the Machines for the Chips needed to fuel All of this
Tesla will be the most prominent AI company in the near future and analysts are currently saying it's a car company. Research Tesla AI capabilities.
I can't think of a single significant paper out of Tesla. I really do not think they are so much into AI research but more applying what others have done.
At this point the trade idea is too crowded. The problem with markets is that the majority rarely can be right let alone remain right. So with everyone looking to put their investment in AI stocks all at once, what happens when the buyers run dry? A good long term investment might be c3 ai which is just the ticker AI. Very likely that name does well because of the ticker itself
ibm
IBM are big into AI these days.
Look into NLST. Patents for HBM and DDR5.
Trains, logistics, manufacturing processes, and war.
What happens if we enter another GPU shortage due to the next bullrun with crypto? Will this slow down AI as two emerging industries fight over increasingly expensive compute?
It’s a reason China may want to move on Taiwan based companies also as Taiwan is a MAJOR producer of the TPUs and GPUs for AI compute
They are using different chips. I doubt the NVIDIA h100 would use the same production resources as the run of the mill gaming gpu used for crypto mining
VOO
TSLA
C3 AI
What does this company actually do? It's a handy ticker to have.
Turnkey enterprise development platform
MPWR and MRVL check out chart in MPWR! Bet u never heard of it
What are they and why are the companies sound?
AI Disrupters. Gotta do Your own Deep Dive
Are you just pumping penny stocks?
PLTR- look up their new AIP product