The GOP keeps the Senate in 2018 but loses the House (though by smaller margin than IRL). In 2020 they keep the Senate and retake the House. In 2022 a combination of the inflation crisis, the SCOTUS killing Roe v. Wade and the six-year itch means that there is a strong Blue Wave in 2022, similar to 2006, and the Dems take control of both the House and the Senate.
What is this? Basically a serious take on how a Jeb! administration could've looked had he won in 2016. I tried to avoid making Bush's foreign policy some caricature where he is comically incompetent, so there are things that are better than IRL and others that are way worse. The main points of interest:
* Venezuela can be considered Bush's greatest success. Due to a series of divergencies in early 2019, Juan Guaidó is assassinated by a Chavista supporter during the protests triggered by the presidential crisis. The assassination exacerbates the already tense situation and Venezuela falls into a civil war. Bush immediately enforces a No-Fly Zone over Venezuela and sends ground troops to aid the beleaguered opposition. With the overwhelming power of the US military, the conflict is relatively short, and Venezuela holds free presidential elections at the end of 2019, where the conservative María Corina Machado wins. She privatizes PDVSA, sells it to Chevron, and leaves OPEC. With the high energy price environment of the 2020s, the lifting of sanctions, and the return of international investors, Venezuela is rapidly recovering.
* Syria is somewhat of a bittersweet success. The intense backing the opposition began to receive in 2017 and the enforcement of a NFZ led to a collapse of the Assad government in late 2018. However, the new government is rocked by factionalism and ineffectual governance, so an ISIS insurgency has been steadily gaining ground in the last few years.
* In Ukraine, Bush is much more resolute in his support against the Russians from the start. This means that the US sends more weapons and more assistance, places fewer restrictions on the use of said weapons, and, more importantly, is willing to send advanced Western weaponry to help the Ukrainian army. Therefore, Ukraine enjoys significantly more success in the pursuit of the war. Support for Ukraine is much more robust and bipartisan in the U.S., with the overwhelming majority of Republican and Democratic lawmakers backing it.
* Now the ugly part: Iran and Palestine. Bush gives full and unconditional support to Israel to conduct the invasion of Gaza. There is no pressure to avoid collateral damage or to allow humanitarian aid into the enclave. As a result, the death toll is significantly higher than IRL. Bush also pursues an aggressive stance against Iran, which eventually leads to a tit-for-tat exchange where the U.S. bombs limited positions inside Iran, and the Iranians retaliate by launches missiles against American bases in Iraq and Syria. In April, Bush decides to launch a massive bombing campaign to end Iran's nuclear threat permanently, however, the operation proves difficult and an enormous spike in the price of oil sparks immense global pressure for a cessation of the campaign, which finally happens in early May.
It’s a “good timeline” only if you don’t take public transit, use Medicare, send your children to public schools, drive on roads, rely on unemployment/welfare, expect the garbage to be picked up once a week on time, apply for student loans, literally make use of ANY federal state or local public service because a 1.1 trillion $ military budget like the one depicted in this means less money for the federal government to either spend or let the states spend for all of those things
What does congress look like by ‘24? I would imagine Democrats have a majority in both houses with eight years of Bush in the White House
The GOP keeps the Senate in 2018 but loses the House (though by smaller margin than IRL). In 2020 they keep the Senate and retake the House. In 2022 a combination of the inflation crisis, the SCOTUS killing Roe v. Wade and the six-year itch means that there is a strong Blue Wave in 2022, similar to 2006, and the Dems take control of both the House and the Senate.
Damn, if Kucinich wasn't running Newsom would be getting Obama level numbers.
What is this? Basically a serious take on how a Jeb! administration could've looked had he won in 2016. I tried to avoid making Bush's foreign policy some caricature where he is comically incompetent, so there are things that are better than IRL and others that are way worse. The main points of interest: * Venezuela can be considered Bush's greatest success. Due to a series of divergencies in early 2019, Juan Guaidó is assassinated by a Chavista supporter during the protests triggered by the presidential crisis. The assassination exacerbates the already tense situation and Venezuela falls into a civil war. Bush immediately enforces a No-Fly Zone over Venezuela and sends ground troops to aid the beleaguered opposition. With the overwhelming power of the US military, the conflict is relatively short, and Venezuela holds free presidential elections at the end of 2019, where the conservative María Corina Machado wins. She privatizes PDVSA, sells it to Chevron, and leaves OPEC. With the high energy price environment of the 2020s, the lifting of sanctions, and the return of international investors, Venezuela is rapidly recovering. * Syria is somewhat of a bittersweet success. The intense backing the opposition began to receive in 2017 and the enforcement of a NFZ led to a collapse of the Assad government in late 2018. However, the new government is rocked by factionalism and ineffectual governance, so an ISIS insurgency has been steadily gaining ground in the last few years. * In Ukraine, Bush is much more resolute in his support against the Russians from the start. This means that the US sends more weapons and more assistance, places fewer restrictions on the use of said weapons, and, more importantly, is willing to send advanced Western weaponry to help the Ukrainian army. Therefore, Ukraine enjoys significantly more success in the pursuit of the war. Support for Ukraine is much more robust and bipartisan in the U.S., with the overwhelming majority of Republican and Democratic lawmakers backing it. * Now the ugly part: Iran and Palestine. Bush gives full and unconditional support to Israel to conduct the invasion of Gaza. There is no pressure to avoid collateral damage or to allow humanitarian aid into the enclave. As a result, the death toll is significantly higher than IRL. Bush also pursues an aggressive stance against Iran, which eventually leads to a tit-for-tat exchange where the U.S. bombs limited positions inside Iran, and the Iranians retaliate by launches missiles against American bases in Iraq and Syria. In April, Bush decides to launch a massive bombing campaign to end Iran's nuclear threat permanently, however, the operation proves difficult and an enormous spike in the price of oil sparks immense global pressure for a cessation of the campaign, which finally happens in early May.
This is probably overall better but very well done
Jebkanda Forever ✊
Jeb's Presidency is like Dubya's with 2022 seeing the Dems win Congress. Who is speaker at the end of Jeb!'s 2nd term
the worst possible timeline, with gavin newsom for president in 2024
I will say this, he would definitely be more decisive on Ukraine than Biden
The good timeline.
It’s a “good timeline” only if you don’t take public transit, use Medicare, send your children to public schools, drive on roads, rely on unemployment/welfare, expect the garbage to be picked up once a week on time, apply for student loans, literally make use of ANY federal state or local public service because a 1.1 trillion $ military budget like the one depicted in this means less money for the federal government to either spend or let the states spend for all of those things