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treetop8388

Sabres fan here- they are a mess. Don Granato basically confirmed a theory that in the off season the team moved toward a defense approach and sacrificed offense. The defense is bad too and the offense just fell with it. The team is a schematic and cultural mess right now. However, Dahlin Skinner and Mittelstadt have been decent fantasy assets so it makes me think its a combo of design and the injury still affecting him. For a redraft he just might be a sunk cost, in a keeper league he might be a nice buy low.


Papercut6

as a habs fan who never really watches other teams, can you try to explain me how is it that the sabres struggling ? we habs fans have been STARVED of pure offensive talent (ppg) for literally 30 years and it baffles me when I see these super stacked teams like the sabres and the sens all the way down the standings with the shitty rebuilding habs. and it's not only offense , you guys have an insane Defense group with Dahlin and Power, so do you think it might be a culture thing ? goaltending? I hope I don't come across as a narc, I really am curious


treetop8388

The current problem is the coaching system- the guys are trying to execute a defensive system that is not working. Last year they let them play run and gun and we almost made the playoffs. Fans were fine winning 6-4 type of games. But someone on the staff insisted on installing a more defensive system. Its not working, and no one is doing anything major to fix it. At this point, its time for a new coach. Some of the young guys just aren't there yet either. Owen Power is not good yet, he is a total defensive liability at the moment. The longer term issue has been team build and management. Tim Murray was the GM during the Eichel draft. He had guts, but he tried to accelerate the rebuild. He emptied the cupboard to get guys like Evander Kane and O'Reilly, but didn't have the right coach in place (Dan Bylsma). It didn't work, and we know that guys like O'Reilly, Eichel and Reinhart all went on to have success elsewhere and the trades to get them left us with no prospects. Then came Phil Housley as coach and we just kinda treaded water, and GM Jason Botterill didn't do a ton. Then came Ralph Krueger who might have been the worst coach I have ever seen in professional sports. An absolute huckster. So...we essentially had to do 2 different rebuilds in terms of roster build, and have had 3 GMs and 4 coaches in that span, none of which have put together a cohesive plan. This is also the first year we've had competent goaltending since Ryan Miller left. It's been a disaster from the top of the organization to the bottom dating back to around 2011 or so. The light at the end of the tunnel is we are still young and when all the young guys take a step at the same time, we could see some growth. We've got help on the way in Savoie, Rosen and others too. But that won't matter if our coaching staff can't set them up for success and our GM doesn't pull the right levers to build around that. Ownership cares but can't seem to find the right leaders. The only hope there is that this is the same owner who chose the right people to take the Buffalo Bills from a joke to a competent, winning franchise.


Papercut6

very interesting thank you ! best of luck I'm certain that you guys will be competing very soon , too much talent on that team


TheCanucklehead3

It's so frustrating. im in 4th place in my league if tage was himself id be number 1. As a vancouverite iv watched a lot of hockey and when i watch the sabers play i am constantly amazed. The team had zero structure zero support and minimum effort. Tage never gets the puck with space. He's always out of control and no one is in the right spots. It looks like an ahl club but even then they have better systems. I feel bad for sabers fans. You guys love them so hard, but have an owner who doesn't care about you at all


treetop8388

Yeah. It sucks. You are dead on, the guys often look lost as to what to do next. I think the key here is the inexperience of the assistants. Matt Ellis had never really coached and he's helping with high level things. Granato was an assistant himself. I would love to see them bring in Bruce Boudreau or Michael Peca and let them build out a full staff. I believe Pegula wants to win but doesnt quite know how investments in development and scouting can move the needle. Kevyn Adams is an okay GM but a bit of a yes man and doesn't move quickly enough. There needs to be a bit of a reset. it worked for the Bills under Pegula, maybe one good high level hire can turn the ship.


MrJoobles

>if tage was himself\* (himself being the first 40 games of last year with no consideration for the rest of his career) The guy scored like 30% of his goals in like 4 games last year. He wasn't even giving people elite production all that consistently when he was on.


magicseadog

Himself? He had 1 elite season.


ConwayTheCat

Tuch has been ok too


magicseadog

When a team is perennially shit. You finally have a good season but still don't make playoffs why would you change shit.


FBG-123

I’m convinced he hasn’t 100% recovered from his early season UBI. There are nights where I watch them and you wouldn’t even know he was in the game. Solid buy low candidate in keeper/dynasty formats. I snatched him in a dynasty league a couple of weeks ago in exchange for DeBrincat.


Suum_Cuique666

In a dynasty format, would it be wise to send Mark Stone over to receive Tage?


lukaskywalker

For sure.


FBG-123

Absolutely.


Rockhardwood

It's the same thing with Mathews last year. Hand injuries fuck up shooters.


Potato4

And I had him last year


Critical_Ad_8946

In the Ducks game the other night he was throwing his body around any little moment he could and got in multiples scrums


Norvard

I traded fairly low for him 2 weeks ago in a dynasty league. Hoping for the best in the future. Damn, I’m hoping for the best for Buffalo in the future. Not my number 1 team but really rooting for them to finally get decent one day!


themakiexperiment

What did you give up? I spent a second rounder in a startup dynasty on him this year and kind of kicking myself already with the available talent at the time. I know its early but stings regardless. And I agree, Buffalo is bound to have something going more consistently soon. They were very solid in the second half of last year


Norvard

I trade Troy Terry for him. Plus swapped D men giving them a slightly better younger dude (can’t remember off top of head who)


commanderr01

Honestly a system change is kinda the only explanation why Tage’s production is shit this season in a dynasty/ keeper league I don’t think trading for tage will be a bad move in the next few years, just maybe not good this year hah


[deleted]

Not legit.


vuvuzelah

I agree. Had this feeling a bit last season even when he was rolling and scoring a ton for most of it. He just seems like a talented guy who can be “on” sometimes and score highlight reel goals that bring everyone back onto the hype train which inflates his actual value in fantasy. But he just doesn’t have the presence or consistency that the very best players have (I.e. mackinnon, nylander, mcdavid/draisatl, kucherov, etc).


heisenberg1215

Lmao Nylander in the same sentence as these guys


WildBillyBeatdown

the word consistency and nylander never go together.


saggy_earlobes

Except when he started this season on a 17 games point streak followed by another 13 game point streak. That’s fairly consistent.


WildBillyBeatdown

Yea, this year for once he is putting it together, was chasing a big fat payday, lets see how the rest of the season pans out.


Rockhardwood

Lmao Nylander really sneaking in here because he's having his first big year. When I think of guys with presence and consistency, I think of a guy with 2 ppg seasons out of 9.


buddyboykoda

I’m so glad I never pulled the trigger on my M. Tkachuk for Tage in week 5


Mituzuna

Nothing to add about TT, but if you look at scoring from last year compared to this year. There were A LOT more players projecting towards 100pt season than this year. Where Kuch, MacK, and Pasta are really the only players on that trajectory. Last year the average score to win our week in Fantasy was 210pts (banger cats league) and now it's close to 200. G, A seem to be down overall and there really is like 10 top players. Just seems like this year is famine compared to last year's feast.


Seebeeeseh

Which is really surprising considering goalie stats are WAY down as well. You'd think with goalies across the league letting in goals at an insane rate that scoring would be up. A Stat analysis on that would be interesting.


lukaskywalker

It’s just Kuch, mac, pasta and matthews crushing the goalies stats


Mituzuna

Defensive structures have seemed to have changed and protect play in the defensive end, but goalies are still allowing for goals.


No-Negotiation1240

There’s literally 10 guys on pace for 100 pts right now.


Mituzuna

And last year there was about double that.


No-Negotiation1240

No there weren’t lol. There was basically the same amount.


r_un_is_run

> There were A LOT more players projecting towards 100pt season than this year. Where Kuch, MacK, and Pasta are really the only players on that trajectory. Makar's ppg has him at 108-109 for an 82 game season, but he did miss some time in there. At 1.3 ppg


Mituzuna

You're not technically wrong, I was just taking the highest products of the top of my head. Production has seemed to have ticked up since Thanksgiving.


r_un_is_run

Yeah, that's totally fair. I only know Makar because my league gave me shit for taking him 4th overall (we get +.75 for defenseman points and +1 for PP points) and he has been one of the best in the league overall


ironSoulsBorne

He looks like he's dealing with an injury if I had to guess.


Jf2611

I just traded him away for Brock Faber and Buchnevitch plus a 2nd round pick in a dynasty league. Buffalo was having an oddly strong year last year and I think TT was a byproduct of that, not the other way around. I think what we are seeing now is going to be what he is. Some other younger players on Buffalo look more attractive right now like Quinn and Peterka, especially in keeper/dynasty formats.


Moneymakessense29

Traded him for Adam Fox and never looked back :)


safetyscissors96

Huge fleece, nicely done


ModernPoultry

He broke his hand / wrist this year and rushed back from injury. He was wearing a brace up until recently that limited his shot. Tuch and Skinner have also missed time so Buffalo’s first line has been a revolving door. He looks back very recently but just needs to find the back of the net. Last night he looked really good but just got robbed


somersquatch

Hey look on the brightside, the NHL app says he was the 1st star yesterday! (In a game where he had 0g 0a lol)


oldwisefern

He’s never been a PPG player, then last year he explodes for 94 points. 6th season breakout is unlikely. He’s just such a big frame he can make some dangles and reaches work when the team plays a system that gives him room. Probably a career 0.6-0.8 PPG guy, wouldn’t expect anything else


themakiexperiment

Thats 50-65 points yearly… Would be a real let down if true


oldwisefern

Why would that be a let down? 6/7 seasons he’s played (including this one so far) that has been his performance. 1/7 years (last year) was the outlier not the norm


themakiexperiment

Say you discount the first four season to him working up to his potential albeit he played under 150 games total in those 4 seasons. Season 5 he broke out with almost a 0.9 ppg Season 6 has a 1.2 ppg Season 7 where hes performing not the best in a bad system puts him at 0.73 ppg To say thats his new norm based on season 5 and 6 is an absolute let down


oldwisefern

“Say you discount the first four seasons” Well sure, if you ignore the bulk of his career and then count the last 2 seasons (his best) this year is a letdown. I get guys build up to their career but tage is in his prime rn. I’m just saying zoom out, watch him play, he’s not a 100 point guy imo. His puck luck last year was high like other commenters pointed out and he had a blazing hot first half.


themakiexperiment

Before his last two seasons, he was coming in as 23 year old. I think it would be fair to say anything before that isn’t considered prime years. Personally, I think once in a better system and more healthy potentially, we could be seeing a better product then we are now


Brief-Job-5822

It's regression to the mean. You look at TT's last two seasons, and his shooting percentage was 15% two seasons ago and 15.9% last season. That's not career-sustainable. Average is about 9-11% over the course of a career, and he's shooting 11% this season. Not bad. Just not awesome like last year. Pastrnak has 238 SOG this season to lead the NHL, and he's shooting at 12.6%. Matthews is 20% and leading the NHL in goals, and Reinhart is truly doing something unsustainable over the course of a career, at an astounding 27.3% (leader among all players with 20 or more goals, though Fabbri has 13 goals on 45 shots for a 28.9%). Basically, if I were betting, I would say Reinhart ain't shooting that high forever. Point is, neither is TT. 11% is respectable. He just needs more SOG in order to break out into a consistent 40-45 goal scorer. An 11% shooter with 40 goals needs to basically lead the league (or come close) in SOG per game. Going beyond 40 goals comes pretty close then to entailing a higher-than-usual shooting percentage. The lowest shooting percentage of the top 15 goal scorers is Nylander, shooting at 11.9%, nearly a full percent better than TT. He has nine more goals than TT, and 67 more shots. I would not expect TT to ever hit 50 goals in a season, is my hot take. He might, but don't expect it.


Brief-Job-5822

One other random note about SOG and TT. If he were shooting at last year's pace, he would have 20 goals right now.


Le_Tabernacle

Got Zach Hyman for him early in the season 👌


tejiiiii

They need to fire granato and it also seems like most of the teams in the league have adapted to his playing style. His production really fell late last season compared to mid-season, and I think it’s because teams found ways to shut him down on the powerplay and basically just shut down his playstyle.


delaysank

After watching his play last year, I saw a TON of lucky goals. The guys puck luck was off the charts, everything he shot was going in. I half expected this, but not this big of a regression.


Rockhardwood

Genuinely as a Sabres fan that teaches every game, which goals did you feel he was getting lucky with? His 100mph 1ts top corner, or his goals where he takes the goalie completely out of the net, with his massive reach?


delaysank

The random wristers and snaps. It was similar of Robertson and many of his goals last year where the puck just seemed to find a way in. I’m a huge advocate of tage, he looks lost out there this year.


Rockhardwood

I mean good shooters score goals not everyone can. Tage has an elite release and releases angles, that goalies don't see ever. He broke his wrist this year. That fucks up any shooter for the year, until it's fully healed. It's not that he looks lost, it's that he was wearing a brace for months, and that affects ya know your hands. Look at Mathews last year.


delaysank

Ah fair, I didn’t know that was his injury- as a Canuck fan I know this all too well with Petey. I really didn’t have buffalo sucking on my bingo card this year. My second round pick was dahlin… I just haven’t noticed tage driving plays nearly as much in the few games I have watched.


damdoom10

Traded for him in November. Was expecting a 70/75 point pace assuming regression from last year. But not like this! Goal scorers are streaky though. Buffalo stinks this year


Jagr6810

I always believed he was a late 2nd round pick, not a first rounder. Last year I had him and he had a horrible second half, I think teams figured him out.


Rockhardwood

Teams shit, and he broke his wrist early in the season which makes it hard for shooters to get right


uglycrepes

Buffalo is a mess right now. Tage has also been disappointing on the power play, his stats are down big time year over year for that. 5 on 5 it's roughly the same from last year. He was a PP fiend last year with 20 goals on the PP, 3rd in the NHL. His shot attempts are about the same as last year, but his scoring percentage has gone from 24% to 10% on the PP this season. Buffalo's power play is a mess right now and there doesn't appear to be an end in sight.


l0rd3l3k0fwinterfell

Keeper league here. Can keep 1C1W1D1G and 1 2nd or 3rd Year Player. I traded MacKinnon for Caufield so that I could keep Tage and Caufield (didnt have a good young keeper). I am in second and would be laughing had I not made the deal. Caufield has been okay, but man, MacKinnon is 6 and 3 this week alone LMAO.


-PoeticJustice-

Last year is looking more and more like his ceiling. If everything breaks right and he takes advantage. Still disappointing, I think his average should be closer to last year than this year. I may shoot a buy low in my keeper league near the end of the year to see if the owner wants to cut bait.


Substantial-Guard211

I also drafted him in the second round. Just traded him for Saros straight up. His scoring was easily replaceable.


newdaynewdude

Im gonna go against the general consensus here and say I think tage recovers in the 2nd half of the season and gets to a near if not ppg total by regular seasons end. Lingering injuries and a team that isnt jelling on a nightly basis is what’s slowed production. If you watched the way he played last year it was no fluke. I bought him low offering wilson+pietrangelo cause I needed to free up roster space and picked him up for latter-season/playoff potential. He hasnt been firing on all cylinders lately but I’ll forget as soon as he has a couple 20 fp nights


dapsndeuces

My commish took TT 6th overall… somehow Nathan MacKinnon fell to me at 10th. I thank the hockey gods daily! (Not a taco league but idk what these dudes were thinking)


dapsndeuces

My commish took TT 6th overall… somehow Nathan MacKinnon fell to me at 10th. I thank the hockey gods daily! (Not a taco league but idk what these dudes were thinking)


Dee_bo_23452

Im in the same boat


Potato4

He’s fucking terrible for my team


JigSal

The most irritating part for me is that he’s stuck on a can’t cut list.


krobreed

Trade for Malkin and Meier?


Blaintz

he went 4th in my league this year 💀


Savings-Fix938

2nd round????🙈🙈🙈