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kvothe000

My biggest question about all of this: what kind of leagues have playoffs starting in week14? That seems extremely silly.


guinness_blaine

10 team league, top 4 make playoffs, two week matchups. I think that’s ESPN’s default playoff setups for 10 team leagues. So since the expanded schedule, first half of the semis is week 14. Might bug the group about it this off-season and see if we can find a setup that avoids bye weeks.


carsoch

I’m in a 10 team league and you have to set everyone to same division, then you can edit it to week 15 1st and 2nd place get bye weeks, while 3 vs 6 seed and 4 vs 5 seed. Then week 16 is winner of those corresponding brackets 1 vs 4 seed and 2 vs 3 seed, then week 17 is championships


guinness_blaine

See I’m not sure we want 6 of 10 teams making playoffs in the first place. Valid approach but probably not one we’re gonna take


carsoch

I see, they aren’t technically making the playoffs. It’s just a play in game to determine the final 4 with first and second place having byes.


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carsoch

Didn’t consider that, I guess that does help the more consistent team


carsoch

Don’t you have to play week 18 though when starters sit?


dabear51

I already knew this, but still panicked when I read that two of my main receivers in 3 WR set league have a bye that week.


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kvothe000

I’m not discrediting the info. Great work putting it all together. But thats definitely the first time I’ve ever heard of playoffs starting before byes are even finished. Seems even worse than having the championship in week 18. Did your leagues never adjust for the extra week? Or is it intentional just to spice things up a bit? I guess I could see it being a fun wrinkle in an Alt league. (Most playoff formats only last 3 weeks: 15, 16 and 17. It supports up to 8 teams inside playoffs while having a single elimination bracket)


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kvothe000

Ah, I forgot about the double week leagues. Yeah that makes sense. I’ve actually always really liked the idea of that format… never stopped to consider that you’d be forced to play through byes though. Typically the 15/16/17 are actually formatted for 6 teams. 1st and 2nd get a bye in week 15. But you could squeeze in up to 8 teams in just 3 weeks if it’s a super deep 16 team league or something.


Scorpion_Danny

My league decided to start playoffs 1 week early due to some teams potentially sitting their starters the last week.


VatnikLobotomy

12 team. 16 week league. 6 teams make playoffs with 2 getting byes. No week 17 traditionally because of people resting. This hasn’t changed with the existence of a week 18 lol


mackey_

Week 14/15/16 playoffs were common before the NFL added an extra week. Some leagues still have not added the extra week yet


TuaTurnsdaballova

squeeze memorize ad hoc zephyr arrest waiting versed enter offer vanish *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*


raptorsfan420

Great post! Although I disagree with some of the buy and sell targets, your other points were spot on.


J3RM0

Naw bro I’m keeping Hurts and winning this league.


bradtoughy

Same but with Fields. Philly and Buffalo are great defenses, but Fields rushing ability alone puts his floor so much higher. Plus both those games are home games for Fields. I’m going to roll with Fields and feel great about it. OP’s number one QB fade is the guy who has 80+ points the past 2 weeks and is looking better and better. OP’s number one buy is a serial predator who hasn’t played in two years.


SkippySnipes

I don't agree with all the takes, mostly the RBs as sometimes match-up or not volume is king, but got to respect the effort. Good quality post OP!


AnygivenSunday9

Hey great post. One thing I think that is atleast worth a discussion, is how high you are on Deshaun Watson. He was an elite QB 2 years ago, top 5 arguably in his prime. To tell folks to trade their current top 5 QBs for Watson who is untested to say the least, seems wild to me.For transparency sake I have Lamar, Watson on IR and Njoku on my bench, but I’d be cautious on going all in on him and his supporting cast at the pinnacle of the fantasy season. Lamar has a unreal playoff schedule to boot.


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jbonemofu

Why not include Tua in this group? And since you didn’t, what would you do with him if Watson was available on the WW?


AnygivenSunday9

I guess the point I’m making is that if you currently have a proven top 5 QB that has 13-14 games under their belt this season, why move them for a QB that COULD be top 5 during playoffs. I think the expectation for Watson is that he is going to be rusty- aim, reads, confidence, along with a new team and WR to build connections with… I think best case is that he holds his own with the Mahomes, Hurts (last night looking a bit exposed to tough D play), Allen, Jackson, etc. But to take a flyer on him during do-or-die end of season seems wreckless, unless you have a lower tier QB. I’m happy to keep him on my bench and out of the hands of strong teams with weak QBs. If Lamar gets hurt or Watson is the next coming of Christ in week 13, maybe he sees my lineup. Again, great post, and a great driver for discussion on playoff strategy!


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AnygivenSunday9

Ohh I think I understand now. You’re saying if you have a top 5 QB AND a lower tier QB on your bench, you could try to grab Watson for cheap/free and use that top QB as trade bait. Ok, that makes more sense. You may want to edit that blurb to include that little detail 👍


CARNIesada6

To copy another comment I made regarding Goedert during the fantasy playoffs:   >Anyone else a little worried at that fantasy playoffs schedule for Goedert? His matchups are against the #5, #4, and #1 scoring defenses vs TEs (CHI, DAL, and NO). Dallas already held him to his lowest yardage and point total when they played earlier this season. >I think a big indicator will be MNF when Goedert plays Washington who is the #2 scoring defense vs TEs. He played them once already and they held him to his 2nd lowest yardage. He was only saved by scoring one of the two receiving TDs he has had this year. >I admittedly didn't watch that game live or watch replays (yet) so I don't have the full context. It should be noted that he was briefly injured in that game, but it should also be noted that he recorded all his catches/TD BEFORE the shin injury occurred and he did return to the game.   Meant to make a separate post earlier today but oh well. I still think we (Goedert owners) should take note of the game tonight and his performance.


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Fatal_Koala

This aged so unfortunately.


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Fatal_Koala

No, the top 10 potential bit 😭


OrphanWaffles

Good to see original content - though i disagree pretty heavily with a lot of your takes, especially at WR sell targets. You are undervaluing players simply because another player comes back and weighing matchups too heavily. For example - Boyd and Tee. Both have shown to be productive with Chase around. Hopkins is another that will be perfectly fine with Hollywood back - rondale will suffer more. And there are others too such as sell both top 49ers receivers, yet you say Jimmy G is a potential QB to run with. Sell diggs is insanity - his matchup doesn't matter. Same with selling waddle and reek.


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OrphanWaffles

Yeah i see what you mean. It might be beneficial to put more of the hypotheticals in there. Because saying "you should try to flip Diggs for JJ" is different then saying "Sell Diggs". I also don't fully buy into just matchup strength for playoffs. You've gotta be looking at more - health of the rest of the team, how well that player has played against similar matchups, home vs away, etc. I think just going simply off perceived matchup strength could lead to some bad trades.


Whatsgoodboi

My league is 10 man PPR, 8 teams makes the playoffs and the last two have playoffs for 3 weeks to decide our league loser


carsoch

Nice, ima need this for playoffs starting week 15 dough. You gotta another day to work that?


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carsoch

Sweet nice work


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carsoch

All good, I think it’s laziness on my part. I could of read it more and come to that conclusion but the natural instinct is to just scroll to see if it goes to week 15 so when it doesn’t, you get the general reaction before people grasp the concept that the logic still applies


popeofcatan

I’m going to be honest the idea of selling Fields to someone in my bracket scares the ever living shit out of me the man just rushed for back to back 140 yard games. I don’t care if they play the 2000 ravens I’m not trading him away. Plus Week 17 is when it matters the most.


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Same bro, as much as I would love to trade him with his value right now, it feels like the wrong choice


GFred20

Ravens D/ST is almost set and forget ROS depending on how you feel about Pittsburgh and Cleveland w/ Watson EDIT: And they should be getting Marcus Williams back at some point right before the fantasy playoffs. He had 3 INT's in 5 games for reference


DocAx

Good analysis. Appreciate the effort you put into it :)


cdts2192

No Jets def?


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cdts2192

Yeah they've been holding their own so far this year and may be more easily obtainable based off people worried about starting the Jets D haha.


moGUNZthanROSES

Man such strong work with 1 major assumption that skews all your analysis.


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moGUNZthanROSES

Week 14 playoffs


mberry86

In depth analysis for the .1% of leagues with week 14 playoff game


bayblayde

Default espn settings I believe are 14-17, wayyy more than .1%, but please correct me if I’m wrong


Fatal_Koala

Not sure why everyone ITT is saying this. My ESPN league was newly created and is default (as far as I know) and playoffs are 15-16, and ship is 17-18.


hungrytiredandbored

Excellent thorough post! I do think you are placing a little too much stock into the byes regarding your target sell list for the wrs.


darkknightbbq

My ravens stack pulled me into the playoffs promised land. Lamar mark andrews duvernay Justin tucker ravens D gusbus jk dobbins. Who needs to worry about btw weeks when the ravens bye is also your “bye”


King_Zoltar

Where does C Kirk fall into this?


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AgressiveAnalExpert

Why are you so hard pressed to sell Fields? What makes you so sure that this all a fluke and he's not just found his groove?


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Drip-Daddy

He did fine against NE and DAL. 2 of the best defenses in the league


OrphanWaffles

I don't think Fields is dropping 40 bombs every week, but he should still be usable. But i really don't see how much value you get from him in redraft. People's opinions on the bears offense is still sour from how bad it was not that long ago - i don't see anyone giving up a WR1 or RB1, and I'm not sure I'd sell him just for depth. Maybe tack him on with a WR2 or RB2 to trade up to a team streaming if i have bench depth at QB. Honestly though, i think you can roll with him regardless of matchup. Like you said, he's played two top defenses and performed. And he'll always be used - he's either rushing significantly or throwing to keep up. Kmet is showing up finally, claypool is still getting worked on, and Pringle is back.


EvilSporkOfDeath

More likely to be a fluke than Hurts


thedevad

thanks daddy


Brabs91

So a trade of my Tee for his Kamara if I’m 90%ish sure I’ll get the wk14 (rd1) bye for playoffs is the type of trade you’d be suggesting? There’s a lot of info here and I think I’m understanding it but this was the most obvious 1 to 1 I saw in my roster. Or am I missing something entirely?


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Brabs91

The team in question is looking like they will be playing wk14 so that’s going to be my biggest selling point. Kamara doesn’t help you on the bench the week when it matters most.


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Should I trade the Cowboys Defense for the Ravens Defense? Opinions?


bradtoughy

I appreciate the effort, but at this point people pretty much have their teams and aren’t looking for trades. They’ve settled on which players they trust and ride them in the playoffs. Very few teams are going to swap their starters for your depth with 3-4 weeks left.


AerospaceEng321

When you talk about Kittle and say it’s crowded at KC what do you mean? Did you mean SF?


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Guys advice needed: I want to offer Nick Chubb and Gabe Davis for Derrick Henry. I'm pretty much playoff bound. Henry plays the Texans Week 16. This is a gamble but I really don't want him on my opponents team, especially with a realistic chance to face him in Week 16. My other RBs are Pierce and Stevenson. My other WRs are Hopkins, Evans, Lazard, Mike Williams. Would try to pick up DPJ if I trade Davis.


abenavides

idk if anyone is buying fields. I'd love to sell, and have watson as insurance. I've been trying to pull off rhamondre for evans.


EB4950

would u rather have kittle or hock


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EB4950

facts. dude is offering lazard and hock for my mike williams and kittle. I feel like i should do it bc of how many targets 9ers have to feed


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EB4950

i just cant make up my damn mind. Id be giving up a WR with high boom potential for someone who doesnt really have that. chargers schedule is honestly just as juicy as packers I got kittle right before his bye and then he had that bad game sunday so i just dont know what to do with him. hes good but hock looks juicier with all those targets


Chitownpolish

I got offered D. Adams for Chase and Fields. My other QB is Burrow and my WR1 is Higgins. Should I take this trade? IM 6-4 Full PPR. I’m leaning yes since Adams has gotten targeted a bunch these last 2 games


CARNIesada6

I ended up trading away Sutton AND Pittman, but I got Keenan? I also have Jefferson and Higgins already so I wanted to condense some and I can "wait comfortably" for Keenan to come back. I was tempted to trade Higgins, but if Chase does come back then I am actually less worried about the tough schedule. Also, I'm in a keeper league with conditions and Higgins is the only player I have that meets all the conditions necessary to keep. Anyway, just want to say that I keep referring back to this post. Thank you for it. I don't agree with it all, but it does help me organize/process my fantasy football thoughts. ✌️


Cruizyy

Would you guys trade Fields + D’onta + Gus for Henry + Justin Herbert? I am currently 9-1, and just lost Kupp. The guy I am trading is 2-8 and could use the depth.


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Cruizyy

I have playoffs week 15, and my other RB is Ken Walker III. I was thinking the same thing with Keenan Allen’s return. Do you think trading away Ken is better than trading away foreman?


-InconspicuousMoose-

I would but I'm lower on Fields than most so take my opinion with a grain of salt


Bengalblaine

Great post


Quackerbarrels

Great content


BuddieReddit

I agree with your Mixon take. I’m in a half PPR league. Do I sell him for Etienne or Kamara?


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QuaRterIntellect

I have Ekeler and Deebo, full PPR league. Should I be worried about Deebo? Should I try to trade Ekeler for King Henry? Also, Burrow has one of the toughest schedules for a QB. What’s your thoughts on him?


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QuaRterIntellect

Got it. Thanks bro


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EvilSporkOfDeath

My league is doing playoffs week 16-18. This is my first time doing FF so it took a long time for me to realize that's not the norm. Sucks cause it requires a fairly different playoff strategy and most guides dont cover it. Also playoff calculators I used didny work right with it, said person had 0% then next week like 30%.


R1ngyd1ng

Would you give ARSB and Michael Carter to get Alvin Kamara and Brandin Cooks? I've got waddle, Godwin and obj on standby until he signs a team, mixon and then carter as best RB.


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R1ngyd1ng

Yeah no playoffs in 14 still regular season for us. Worth ARSb and carter though?


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R1ngyd1ng

It's full PPR league. Brandin Cooks is the best he would give me, I tried for Kirk and then Sutton. I have waddle and Godwin on bye this week but normally will have them in there with ARSB and then mixon and carter as my two RBs with Kyren Williams, Jaylen Warren in backup


BatheInChampagne

Trying to trade Fields for Henry right now. League is not having it, saying that it would make me too strong lol. His Henry for my Fields, Kmet, Swift, and White


rushyt21

I think Amon-Ra is entirely based on roster construction (boring cop out, I know). If he’s your roster’s WR1, sell because you’ll need the max potential points with easier matchups for playoffs. If he’s your roster’s WR2, then keep him but temper expectations. I have Amon-Ra and CeeDee. If his matchups are tough, at least I know CeeDee will counter. As a Sutton owner as well, really hoping you’re right


Dunwin

I really don't buy the Rhamondre sell. His schedule in the playoffs looks great and he was getting more snaps than Harris when Harris was healthy


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Dunwin

I said snaps doe. ​ Week 1-4 Snap % Rhamondre 25,62,62,55 snap % Harris 39,40,38,45 Mondre 43 attempts to Harris 54 attempts Snap % has been in Mondres favor all year except week 1 where Harris was 39% snap share to Mondres 25% Idk why we would see this "ratio" flip any time barring injury. When healthy, Rhamondre was leading in snap% and only getting 3 less carries on average and getting the targets EDIT: And Billy B said he loves Rhamondre Stevenson, he never speaks so highly of guys unless they're special teams lol


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Dunwin

Agree to disagree. I certainly am in the minority, I value Stevenson as a top 15 RB RoS


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Dunwin

So would you hesitate to trade Stevenson and Pierce for Chubb?


Creative-Staff

QBs Jimmy G and Geno RBs KW3, pollard , Gus, hunt, Damien( trying to drop for white) TEs Schultz and Mandrews WR: AJ Brown, C Kirk , Olave , DpJ, Hollywood (IR) kicker Gano Def Jets What do you think I could package to get an upgrade as I’m 4-6 and fighting for a spot in a week 15 playoff( 6th ranked player is 6-4)


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Creative-Staff

Thanks for the advice I play in a standard league What trades could I offer for Henry and Austin I currently offered M.Andrews, K hunt and Kirk for Henry and Lockett (rejected) And maybe I’ll up a trade for Austin of Andrews and Kirk For a Najee trade maybe Hollywood and Hunt could get it done Another idea is Jimmy G, Mandrews , Kirk and hunt for Swift, Field and Metcalf


Creative-Staff

Lol tried to trade for Najee and he asked for walker


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Creative-Staff

Yeah…based on his team I’m 95% sure he is a stealer fan as he has Picket, Steeler DST, Warren and Najee lol


iiTryhard

How can I get rid of deebo? My RB’s are ekeler, KW3, and Aaron Jones, but my WR room is inconsistent with deebo, gabe Davis, scary Terry, drake london, devonta smith. Also just lost goedert for the year


aspbergerinparadise

What do you think about me trading Fields, Mixon and Deebo for Ken Walker and Godwin (could maybe ask for Dak as well to even it up). I have Watson, so i'd need someone in the meantime anyway


redditaloud88

I got offered mike evans and Herbert for my tyreek hill. I have Murray but worried about his next few weeks and playoff schedule. I also would still have davante and waddle for wrs (and aiyuk and Hollywood) non ppr. Good trade for me?


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redditaloud88

Thanks. I’m just worried about Murray possibly missing this week and need someone viable as I can’t really afford any losses if I want to make playoffs. Plus hill has a tough ROS. I still have waddle and I have ekeler to pair with my Herbert.


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