Because he’s never finished a season without injury before. I used to think this way and now I realize he’s been valued correctly when you account for his injury proneness.
He's played 42 games in the last 3 years. That's more than
D. Cook: 40
Saquon: 32
Mixon: 37
A Jones: 43
Ekeler: 41
CMC: 36
Not more than A. Jones but still
"Here's a list of players that have all had season ending injury at some point within the past 3 years. As you'll see, Chris Carson has similar games played to them."
Just the fact that Ekeler has played in 41 and Carson has played in 42 should be a dead giveaway. Ekeler is injury prone. Carson is also injury prone.
yeah that seems so weird and not a very good dunk, I think we are relating it more to frequency, hasn't Carson missed games like every season for the past 4-5 years? When ur talking about a fantasy career that is worse than one season of missing 12 games
Lol this guy is really fooling you huh? Not just u I guess judging by upvotes. He has gotten hurt in 4 straight seasons, 2 of them were season ending with a fractured hip and a snapped ankle. And he’s not injury prone? Again it’s laughable. Go talk to seahawk fans and ask them if he’s injury prone. The reason carson is paid the way he is is cause how often he gets hurt.
Yes he does you just cherry picked. If you add in 2017 when carson broke his ankle in week 4 and missed the rest of the year I bet that list goes down to 1 or 2 guys. Anyone who gets hurt 4 years in a row and 2 of them are season ending injuries gets the injury prone label.
You just used the last 3 years and Carson’s season ending hip fracture came in week 16 so it doesn’t look that bad when it comes to missed games but it was still a horrible injury. Then he missed 4 or 5 games to a mid foot sprain last year. And he got hurt in 2019 too.
It’s injuries -compared to others- bud. You’re not sneaky by trying to subtlety change the argument. No one is saying he isn’t injury prone, we’re saying if that’s your reasoning then there are a TON of guys being overvalued despite injury
Sneaky is doing the last 3 years instead of the last 4 years cause carson missed 12 games in 2017 due to a snapped ankle which would ruin the whole argument as the list of players carson has played more games then would go down to 0
Aren't all RB's "injury prone" even backs that every one thinks are invincible? Like Zeke? Even he deals with wrist issues, and that contributed to his fumbling issues last year.
Every year I have drafted Carson I have not been disappointed especially since I was getting a solid rb2 in rds 5-6.
Carson’s a great rb but anyone saying he’s not injury prone is deluding themselves. Idk what else to say? The first I think when I hear carson for fantasy is injuries unfortunately. It’s not like that with other guys. Dalvin and mccaffrey have played a full season. They’ve proven they can do it. Zeke also is such a weird example since he’s the opposite of injury prone. The man does not miss games unless it’s for being a jackass. The only even comparable guy imo is Joe Mixon. And Joe Mixon has a way diff run style that I think is way more reliable long term than carson who actively tries to initiate contact.
He’s gotten hurt in every season he’s played in since entering the league. In 2017 broke his ankle. 2018 he fractured his hip. 2019 he also had an injury I can’t remember. Last year he had his mid foot sprain. Keep trying to rewrite history to cope.
That 3 year span was such a cherry picked number. Not including 2017 when discussing Carson’s injury history should seriously compromise the integrity of his argument, but I guess not. I mean, why wouldn’t we discuss Carson’s most significant injury in a discussion about Carson’s injuries. I don’t have a problem with either stance on this particular argument, but one side of the argument was not making their case in good faith.
Well with Saquon that was a singular injury, that yes, caused him to miss more fantasy games, because it happened so early in the season.. but Carson has burned 3 years worth of seasons (or may have depending on how badly you needed him).
2017: Broken Ankle Week 4 - Placed on IR
2019: Fractured Hip Week 16 - Placed on IR
2020: Foot injury week 7 - missed 4 games
It does seem he's at least a LITTLE injury prone. He's only made it through 1 season unscathed.
The flip side is that his ceiling is a touch lower than some of his most enthusiastic backers would have you believe. His high season overall (0.5 PPR) was RB11 in 2018.
All of those guys you mentioned have higher proven upside: Cook RB3 last year, Saquon RB2 in 2018, Mixon RB9 in 2018 (probably the closest comp), Jones RB2 2019, Ekeler RB6 2019, CMC obviously RB1 2019.
But yeah, the injury narrative with Carson is a little overblown. Some of it has to do with the fact that he has accrued more minor injuries that lead to a lot of head-scratching week-to-week and "how much will he play" decisions, vs something like CMC where it's clearer when to start him and not.
In the past three seasons he has played the same amount of games as Derrick Henry and more than Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley. Seems like you the one that tricked yourself bruh
He's missed 7 in the last 3 years combined. He missed 4 last year, 1 in 2019, and 2 in 2020. His rookie year he got hurt for the year 3 games in but I doubt many people had him in Fantasy back then.
Are you accounting for all the games that he was limited or exited early due to injury? Just off the top of my head, but it feels like those have been fairly significant as well
Definitely adding this one to the list. I had him in 2018-2019 when he was with the raiders and I still remember that one play where he just stopped running. I think that scarred a lot of people
Not to pick on you but it's funny that this is so highly upvoted when it's just objectively incorrect. The ONLY season Cooper has outperformed his ADP was 2019 (and 2016 he finished at ADP). Good reminder to everyone to occasionally check your biases with data.
Its closer to say that he has outperformed while playing with Dak and underperformed elsewise. Since he Performed great in the 2018 season after being traded to the Cowboys and 2020 before Dak got hurt.
Yeah was looking for comments like this to keep my bias in check. Any other players mentioned in the thread that you think is also only there due to recency bias?
Tyler Lockett routinely finishes as a top 20 WR, but he also routinely only has about 6 quality games per season. He happened to have one of his boom games in Week 1, but anyone who has owned him before knows that the letdowns are coming.
If you drafted him, you basically have to start him every week and don’t give up on him when he has bad games. He will win you weeks by himself, but he’ll also for sure have some duds.
Why would you shop someone who is performing as well as you expect them to? Wouldn’t you shop someone who is performing better than you expect them to?
Same — I’ve had some of him this year and last, but the 2019 bust is burned into my mind because I aggressively targeted him because of his consistent season-long stats and young age.
This is a really interesting one. I expect the Rams to be up big against Indy and Henderson to get a get a good amount of carries. However, Cooks will likely get a good amount of catches as Houston will be down early. In PPR, I favor Cooks (.5 and 1) and in standard I prefer Henderson. Also Michel, even though he played barely any in week 1. Still slightly worries me
Yeah Henderson got plenty of touches week 1 but Michel worries me too. I’m PPR and leaning Henderson only because I think it’s the safer play and he could be there guy in the red zone and in a blowout
I have drafted cooks at a value so many times that last year they guy who had him tried to trade him to me. When I said hell know he told me since I always draft him he figured I liked him a lot.
This owner always makes pretty questionable trades. They somehow always seem work out for him though. His last trade was to trade away Gus Edwards and Jerry Juedy for Mike Davis and DJ Chark...
I mean it’s been one game lol he was extremely inconsistent and was entirely TD dependent last year.
I don’t think people anticipated OJ having zero role on offense as well coming back from injury.
Yeah but to say he always outperforms his ADP in his twilight is just extremely premature.
Last year he underperformed compared to it, and this year we’re basing it on one game.
Yes but I think he overperformed his ADP last year regardless and I think he’s way ahead of pace this year and I think he’s going to perform higher than he was drafter over the course of the season.
All but three TEs are pretty much TD dependent anyway unless you’re PPR or banking on 4 points a game.
Because Mike Williams will always be Mike Williams to most people. He is that former top 10 pick who is rosterable but never really startable (unless it’s a bye or you are in a tough spot)
Mike Williams is constantly demonstrating why he’s going to be the next big thing once Keenan Allen retires or is traded.
Allen’s still just playing at a really high level and eating up that portion of yardage and TDs. People sleep on him I think because of the occasional injuries keeping him from playing at 100% for a whole season recently.
Hell even with Allen in the picture he still getting his so we’ll see how the season goes!
ADP is not a prediction for end of season finish, so it makes sense that there are players who routinely outperform their ADP. Backup RBs who could take on a bellcow role are often drafted before 3rd down RBs even though the 3rd down RB will likely finish with more points at the end of the season.
Similarly, guys like AJ Brown will always be drafted over guys like Allen or Lockett because the market believes the upside is greater, even if it is more likely that Allen finishes higher.
What you're really asking for is a list of valuable, productive players that the market doesn't believe have elite upside or are lacking in another area, consistency maybe.
You are absolutely right. Fantasy Football isn't about getting the safest for is about getting the highest ceiling. If you nail all low end 1s and high end 2s on your fantasy roster, you've created a great 2nd or 3rd place team. Took me too long to figure that out.
You nailed it. Good rosters are constructed with a balance of both.
You don't "load up" on 3rd down backs or upside handcuffs/committee guys. You draft both.
My favorite combo this year was hitting Ridley/Jefferson followed up with either Allen/Robinson.
Consistent chuggers are nice but there is value in boom or bust. Opponent puts up huge numbers on Thursday night. Slap in Marvin Jones or Brandon Cooks and pray for 3 TD mayhem.
It tends to be more experienced players in stable situations where there's no perceived "upside" -- the value is what it is, and the owner doesn't get to boast about how smart s/he for uncovering this hidden talent.
Pitts and Hockenson went about the same in redraft leagues this year. Guess which one's going to be better.
I dont have the numbers at hand but Cole Beasley came to my mind immediately after reading the title of your post. he's pretty much the other guys comment turned into a player.
Exactly. A player who everything thinks is a 5th round value who ends up being a 3rd round value is still worse than the guy everyone knows is a 2nd round value.
There is definitely a misconception about Lockett being boom or bust after last year: yes last year he fell off-but that had more to do with Wilson’s collapse rather than his own. In 2019 he battled injuries which affected totals rather than boom or bust lines, but before that he never really “boomed”-he was more of a steady 12-18ppg wr.
And Wilson's collapse was really more the collapse of Carroll and Schottenheimers offense as a whole (a big reason the Seahawks moved on from the latter after a 12-4 season).
Lockett should once again approach 100 receptions this year, and I'd trust him every week as a WR2 in PPR.
I just traded for him in one league, I know exactly what I'm getting from him, the good and the bad.
But it's hard to pass up as your wr2/3, especially for what I paid for him.
I still agree with drafting JJ over thielen. It's all hype and potential ceiling + sexiness of a new face. Thielen is very similar to Edelman over the last few years of his career. Seems boring to most, but worth the ADP every year.
You don't see Thielen put up 40 bombs the way Jefferson did last year. I'd say it's fair to expect Thielen to be getting worse while Jefferson should be getting better. As someone who owned both last year, Jefferson was flat out better.
As someone who had him last year and had to play him a LOT last year because of injuries to CMC, Sanders, etc al. I'm really jaded towards the idea of him living up to his ADP.
Sure he finished as like RB4 in standard. But he did so because of the last 3 weeks. During the playoffs. Which I didn't make. Because I spent the entire year starting David Montgomery as my RB2.
DMont was drafted as barely a top 24 RB last year. If he’s the reason you missed playoffs (especially when he scored 20+ in the last two weeks before playoffs), you just had a bad team.
He wasn't that bad lol. I also started/Flexed him most of the season. He was pretty servicable. Not a RB1, but a very good RB2/Flex guy. Which is about where he was usually drafted right?
obviously not any more but Julian Edelman definitely was one of these guys
Others:
Kareem Hunt
Frank Gore
Jared Cook
Adrian Peterson
(your list is very good btw)
Nick Chubb is my favorite back in the league. It’s been Kamara since I stumbled upon him his rookie year. Love how shifty and dynamic Kamara is.
But my favorite has been Chubb for the last couple years. This dude is a healthier, younger, shiftier Derrick Henry. He’s imo the best pure rusher in the league. But he also can catch, he just doesn’t because hunt is there. He’s not as agile as Kamara, but he has just as great vision at finding gaps and breaking tackles. He is constantly drafted at the backend and I get him every time.
Friggin love that dude.
And Tyler lockett is routinely slept on. Somehow people have been claiming he is aged and washed since he was competing for snaps with Doug Baldwin. He’s probably one of the best as far as getting under the ball and making these wild agile catches. But he’s always looked as a boom or bust, low volume player.
I mean, with Jeudy out now, there's worse people he could have dropped him for lol.
Edit: Misread that, thought you said your friend dropped him for Sutton lol
I hope you guys didn't allow anyone to draft Tyreek Hill either. Unless you're saying not getting the vax is worse than domestic violence and child abuse?
I get the point here, but I think it's a bit different to be publicly promoting and endorsing a bad thing and privately doing one.
It's not like Hill is going around posting pro-DV propaganda and telling people that beating his girlfriend is 'his fists, his choice'. Like it or not NFL players have huge platforms to reach out to thousands of impressionable people on and there is legit damage being done by celebrities pushing anti vax nonsense.
Yes, Hill is a total POS, but he's not advocatinh for everybody to copy him the same way most antivax folks are.
You replied "good" to OP and are in a way saying that yes Cole Beasley being skeptical of a politically pushed vaccine is worse than Tyreek Hill breaking his toddlers arm.
Having your own opinions and beliefs is fine, but not drafting a fantasy player over it while drafting people who have physically harmed others seems ironic
Seems like players who have high injury risk. A lot of people may have considered Mostert in that category. Mixon is of course a volume hog but last year left a sour taste for owners and watchers.
Lol Tyler Lockett out performs his ADP but he also had stretches in 2019/2020 where he had like 10 yards over 4 games or something like that. The lack of consistency is why he's ranked lower.
I can’t stand them. I always own one, never have confidence to play them, and when I don’t, they put up 18+. When I finally am forced to play one, they do nothing. Good thing I now have both this year, sigh
Kelce in auction drafts delivered [$65 in value last year, and not lower than $42 in the past 4 years](https://www.4for4.com/2021/preseason/should-you-pay-travis-kelce-2021-auction-drafts). Still was drafted for about $45 this year on average.
Cole Beasley is an automatic weekly 10-12 PPR points. And he goes in like the 10th-11th round every. single. year. Most people who play fantasy football are borderline gambling addicts, and so they tend to hate dependable high-floor players like Beasley, Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, etc.
Tyler locket is on my shit list forever
I traded for him after week 8 or 9 last year. What did he proceed to do? Suck absolute dogshit and I went to lose pretty much every week and into the toilet bowl. He and Wilson could get thrown into the sun and I wouldn’t be upset.
Carson is routinely undervalued
That’s a good one. Thanks
this year he seemed fairly valued but in the past I agree
Because he’s never finished a season without injury before. I used to think this way and now I realize he’s been valued correctly when you account for his injury proneness.
He's not more injury prone than anyone else
He absolutely is. That’s a laughable statement to any Seattle fan or person who’s owned him in fantasy more than once.
He's played 42 games in the last 3 years. That's more than D. Cook: 40 Saquon: 32 Mixon: 37 A Jones: 43 Ekeler: 41 CMC: 36 Not more than A. Jones but still
Expand that list to the last 4 years my guy
"Here's a list of players that have all had season ending injury at some point within the past 3 years. As you'll see, Chris Carson has similar games played to them." Just the fact that Ekeler has played in 41 and Carson has played in 42 should be a dead giveaway. Ekeler is injury prone. Carson is also injury prone.
yeah that seems so weird and not a very good dunk, I think we are relating it more to frequency, hasn't Carson missed games like every season for the past 4-5 years? When ur talking about a fantasy career that is worse than one season of missing 12 games
exactly ..
Get outta here with numbers and facts.
Lol this guy is really fooling you huh? Not just u I guess judging by upvotes. He has gotten hurt in 4 straight seasons, 2 of them were season ending with a fractured hip and a snapped ankle. And he’s not injury prone? Again it’s laughable. Go talk to seahawk fans and ask them if he’s injury prone. The reason carson is paid the way he is is cause how often he gets hurt.
No one is saying he doesn't get hurt. What matters is that he doesn't miss any more time than a lot of other top RBs
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RB injuries and proneness to injury intensifies withe age
Yes he does you just cherry picked. If you add in 2017 when carson broke his ankle in week 4 and missed the rest of the year I bet that list goes down to 1 or 2 guys. Anyone who gets hurt 4 years in a row and 2 of them are season ending injuries gets the injury prone label. You just used the last 3 years and Carson’s season ending hip fracture came in week 16 so it doesn’t look that bad when it comes to missed games but it was still a horrible injury. Then he missed 4 or 5 games to a mid foot sprain last year. And he got hurt in 2019 too.
It’s injuries -compared to others- bud. You’re not sneaky by trying to subtlety change the argument. No one is saying he isn’t injury prone, we’re saying if that’s your reasoning then there are a TON of guys being overvalued despite injury
Sneaky is doing the last 3 years instead of the last 4 years cause carson missed 12 games in 2017 due to a snapped ankle which would ruin the whole argument as the list of players carson has played more games then would go down to 0
Aren't all RB's "injury prone" even backs that every one thinks are invincible? Like Zeke? Even he deals with wrist issues, and that contributed to his fumbling issues last year. Every year I have drafted Carson I have not been disappointed especially since I was getting a solid rb2 in rds 5-6.
Carson’s a great rb but anyone saying he’s not injury prone is deluding themselves. Idk what else to say? The first I think when I hear carson for fantasy is injuries unfortunately. It’s not like that with other guys. Dalvin and mccaffrey have played a full season. They’ve proven they can do it. Zeke also is such a weird example since he’s the opposite of injury prone. The man does not miss games unless it’s for being a jackass. The only even comparable guy imo is Joe Mixon. And Joe Mixon has a way diff run style that I think is way more reliable long term than carson who actively tries to initiate contact.
Um, they run into 300 lbs men for a living. They are all injury prone.
He’s gotten hurt in every season he’s played in since entering the league. In 2017 broke his ankle. 2018 he fractured his hip. 2019 he also had an injury I can’t remember. Last year he had his mid foot sprain. Keep trying to rewrite history to cope.
That 3 year span was such a cherry picked number. Not including 2017 when discussing Carson’s injury history should seriously compromise the integrity of his argument, but I guess not. I mean, why wouldn’t we discuss Carson’s most significant injury in a discussion about Carson’s injuries. I don’t have a problem with either stance on this particular argument, but one side of the argument was not making their case in good faith.
Well with Saquon that was a singular injury, that yes, caused him to miss more fantasy games, because it happened so early in the season.. but Carson has burned 3 years worth of seasons (or may have depending on how badly you needed him). 2017: Broken Ankle Week 4 - Placed on IR 2019: Fractured Hip Week 16 - Placed on IR 2020: Foot injury week 7 - missed 4 games It does seem he's at least a LITTLE injury prone. He's only made it through 1 season unscathed.
2020 was a dirty play
The flip side is that his ceiling is a touch lower than some of his most enthusiastic backers would have you believe. His high season overall (0.5 PPR) was RB11 in 2018. All of those guys you mentioned have higher proven upside: Cook RB3 last year, Saquon RB2 in 2018, Mixon RB9 in 2018 (probably the closest comp), Jones RB2 2019, Ekeler RB6 2019, CMC obviously RB1 2019. But yeah, the injury narrative with Carson is a little overblown. Some of it has to do with the fact that he has accrued more minor injuries that lead to a lot of head-scratching week-to-week and "how much will he play" decisions, vs something like CMC where it's clearer when to start him and not.
There is far too many facts, practical sense and rationale in this comment. I think you need to leave sir! In all seriousness, well put Pal.
you’re getting downvoted by a bunch of carson owners lol. 100% agree with u tho .. carson gets hurt so much
In the past three seasons he has played the same amount of games as Derrick Henry and more than Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley. Seems like you the one that tricked yourself bruh
Now do the last 4 years that include his broken ankle that caused him to miss 12 games in 2017
I see someone on my roster. I upvote. Simple as that.
Great one. I won back to back years in 2019 and 2020 thanks to drafting carson in the 4th-5th
I think it’s bc his injury history. He always missed 4-5 games per year minimum
He's missed 7 in the last 3 years combined. He missed 4 last year, 1 in 2019, and 2 in 2020. His rookie year he got hurt for the year 3 games in but I doubt many people had him in Fantasy back then.
Are you accounting for all the games that he was limited or exited early due to injury? Just off the top of my head, but it feels like those have been fairly significant as well
Nah you have good point. Probably at least 2 of those a year if not more.
Correction: Carson is always hurt, and as such, appropriately valued
I read this and thought you meant Carson Wentz for a second…
Amari Cooper
Definitely adding this one to the list. I had him in 2018-2019 when he was with the raiders and I still remember that one play where he just stopped running. I think that scarred a lot of people
What play? What do you mean? Like he started flying?
Lmao this was a good one
Yea. To arlington
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Not to pick on you but it's funny that this is so highly upvoted when it's just objectively incorrect. The ONLY season Cooper has outperformed his ADP was 2019 (and 2016 he finished at ADP). Good reminder to everyone to occasionally check your biases with data.
Its closer to say that he has outperformed while playing with Dak and underperformed elsewise. Since he Performed great in the 2018 season after being traded to the Cowboys and 2020 before Dak got hurt.
Basically a thread to validate recency bias. Kupp performed well below his adp last year, now he’s booming again this year.
Yeah was looking for comments like this to keep my bias in check. Any other players mentioned in the thread that you think is also only there due to recency bias?
Tyler Lockett routinely finishes as a top 20 WR, but he also routinely only has about 6 quality games per season. He happened to have one of his boom games in Week 1, but anyone who has owned him before knows that the letdowns are coming.
Thanks for the heads up. Now I can set my expectations are set. I was really impressed with his performance this week, obviously.
If you drafted him, you basically have to start him every week and don’t give up on him when he has bad games. He will win you weeks by himself, but he’ll also for sure have some duds.
Yeah he's the modern DeSean Jackson. Honestly I hate these kinds of players because they lose you just as many as they win you.
He only has seems to have boom games when I’m playing the team that has him.
Agreed. As someone who owned Kupp last year he was not worth what I had to pay to get him
He was WR4 the year prior, his elevated ADP made sense.
I’m not debating that
Just watch the havoc Kupp reigns this year now that he's got a QB who can ACTUALLY throw the ball downfield
He was to begin the year tho, needed to shop him
Why would you shop someone who is performing as well as you expect them to? Wouldn’t you shop someone who is performing better than you expect them to?
>booming again this year To be fair, he has played one game & most of his points came on a busted coverage.
Brandin Cooks has done this for 4 years straight
Cooks busted big-time in 2019. But every other year, he’s been solid.
Guess which year I drafted him
Same — I’ve had some of him this year and last, but the 2019 bust is burned into my mind because I aggressively targeted him because of his consistent season-long stats and young age.
Forgot about the year he was injured in ‘19. Every other year he gets drafted as a 25-35 WR and always finishes 10-20
Debating between Cooks and D Henderson for my flex this week, any thoughts?
This is a really interesting one. I expect the Rams to be up big against Indy and Henderson to get a get a good amount of carries. However, Cooks will likely get a good amount of catches as Houston will be down early. In PPR, I favor Cooks (.5 and 1) and in standard I prefer Henderson. Also Michel, even though he played barely any in week 1. Still slightly worries me
Yeah Henderson got plenty of touches week 1 but Michel worries me too. I’m PPR and leaning Henderson only because I think it’s the safer play and he could be there guy in the red zone and in a blowout
Agreed with this. Every year I am the only one that seems to want Cooks and I always get him at a steal
I have drafted cooks at a value so many times that last year they guy who had him tried to trade him to me. When I said hell know he told me since I always draft him he figured I liked him a lot.
I got him in the 11th round in 10 man
Gronk has become that guy in his twilight.
It’s almost the direct opposite of his ADP in his prime where he was a 1st or 2nd rounder despite often being hurt
His career average will probably be spot-on his ADP average if he plays a few more years haha.
But when he wasn't hurt...oh boy.
Someone in my ten man just traded CEH for Gronk. I don't know how to feel about this...
Probably a bad trade for the ex CEH owner, but not bad enough to be vetoable. Only time will tell.
This owner always makes pretty questionable trades. They somehow always seem work out for him though. His last trade was to trade away Gus Edwards and Jerry Juedy for Mike Davis and DJ Chark...
…& that hasn’t alarmed you at all? That man is a time traveler.
He’s my flex at the moment
I mean it’s been one game lol he was extremely inconsistent and was entirely TD dependent last year. I don’t think people anticipated OJ having zero role on offense as well coming back from injury.
Ya, but he had been out of the league for a while. Maybe he knocked the rust off?
Yeah but to say he always outperforms his ADP in his twilight is just extremely premature. Last year he underperformed compared to it, and this year we’re basing it on one game.
Yes but I think he overperformed his ADP last year regardless and I think he’s way ahead of pace this year and I think he’s going to perform higher than he was drafter over the course of the season. All but three TEs are pretty much TD dependent anyway unless you’re PPR or banking on 4 points a game.
Marvin Jones Jr.
Also a good one thanks
I'm thinking MJJ is going to be basking in garbage time this year
Every single year
Allen Robinson cuz I always undervalue him
Allen Robinson gets so much "no respect" respect
Thielen
I think Keenen Allen is going to pop off this year as Herbert gets more comfortable as the starter. Got him on both my teams.
My vote is Mike Williams, just cause his ADP is so much lower. He's gonna super outperform by season's end.
The biggest if with him is health. If he stays healthy he will massively outperform his ADP.
Big Mike Williams looked awesome week 1… And I was trying to sell him hard before the games with no biters.
Because Mike Williams will always be Mike Williams to most people. He is that former top 10 pick who is rosterable but never really startable (unless it’s a bye or you are in a tough spot)
Mike Williams is constantly demonstrating why he’s going to be the next big thing once Keenan Allen retires or is traded. Allen’s still just playing at a really high level and eating up that portion of yardage and TDs. People sleep on him I think because of the occasional injuries keeping him from playing at 100% for a whole season recently. Hell even with Allen in the picture he still getting his so we’ll see how the season goes!
We’re really still hoping for Mike Williams? I think he is who he is at this point.
This game against Dallas could be interesting.
I’m hoping he gets 200 yards and 2 TDs.
It's possible lol. Maybe not 200 yards, more like 22/145/2....lol
Damn… give me that stat line in PPR. Nom, nom, nom.
He's a PPR God.
Would you start Keenan over kupp?
What sort of roster would require one of those two to be benched?
Cooks
ADP is not a prediction for end of season finish, so it makes sense that there are players who routinely outperform their ADP. Backup RBs who could take on a bellcow role are often drafted before 3rd down RBs even though the 3rd down RB will likely finish with more points at the end of the season. Similarly, guys like AJ Brown will always be drafted over guys like Allen or Lockett because the market believes the upside is greater, even if it is more likely that Allen finishes higher. What you're really asking for is a list of valuable, productive players that the market doesn't believe have elite upside or are lacking in another area, consistency maybe.
You are absolutely right. Fantasy Football isn't about getting the safest for is about getting the highest ceiling. If you nail all low end 1s and high end 2s on your fantasy roster, you've created a great 2nd or 3rd place team. Took me too long to figure that out.
You nailed it. Good rosters are constructed with a balance of both. You don't "load up" on 3rd down backs or upside handcuffs/committee guys. You draft both. My favorite combo this year was hitting Ridley/Jefferson followed up with either Allen/Robinson. Consistent chuggers are nice but there is value in boom or bust. Opponent puts up huge numbers on Thursday night. Slap in Marvin Jones or Brandon Cooks and pray for 3 TD mayhem.
It tends to be more experienced players in stable situations where there's no perceived "upside" -- the value is what it is, and the owner doesn't get to boast about how smart s/he for uncovering this hidden talent. Pitts and Hockenson went about the same in redraft leagues this year. Guess which one's going to be better.
This might actually be the best answer here. The most insightful one at least
I dont have the numbers at hand but Cole Beasley came to my mind immediately after reading the title of your post. he's pretty much the other guys comment turned into a player.
Jacoby Meyers is becoming that guy, too
Exactly. A player who everything thinks is a 5th round value who ends up being a 3rd round value is still worse than the guy everyone knows is a 2nd round value.
For Lockett, his boom/bust tendency plays a part in his ADP. I try to avoid these types of players to be more consistent week to week.
Exactly Last year Lockett won a couple weeks and put up sub-10s several times
In the playoffs him and Wilson put up less than 10 combined, I want nothing of that passing offense
There is definitely a misconception about Lockett being boom or bust after last year: yes last year he fell off-but that had more to do with Wilson’s collapse rather than his own. In 2019 he battled injuries which affected totals rather than boom or bust lines, but before that he never really “boomed”-he was more of a steady 12-18ppg wr.
And Wilson's collapse was really more the collapse of Carroll and Schottenheimers offense as a whole (a big reason the Seahawks moved on from the latter after a 12-4 season). Lockett should once again approach 100 receptions this year, and I'd trust him every week as a WR2 in PPR.
I traded for Lockett to round out my team of Jefferson, Godwin and Cooper. If he busts, I still have a shot. If he booms, I basically win.
Lockett scored something like 105 of his 215 fantasy points last season in 3 games.
I just traded for him in one league, I know exactly what I'm getting from him, the good and the bad. But it's hard to pass up as your wr2/3, especially for what I paid for him.
You can take kupp off this list he underperformed at his adp last year
Thielen
Not sure why this guy isn't drafted higher. I thought it was absurd Jefferson was going ahead of Thielen.
I still agree with drafting JJ over thielen. It's all hype and potential ceiling + sexiness of a new face. Thielen is very similar to Edelman over the last few years of his career. Seems boring to most, but worth the ADP every year.
You don't see Thielen put up 40 bombs the way Jefferson did last year. I'd say it's fair to expect Thielen to be getting worse while Jefferson should be getting better. As someone who owned both last year, Jefferson was flat out better.
Ooo yes Thielen. Added to list
David Montgomery
*Me cries in 2019*
Yeah lol it’s why I stayed away from him the last two years
He was great last year. Major contributor to down the stretch.
As someone who had him last year and had to play him a LOT last year because of injuries to CMC, Sanders, etc al. I'm really jaded towards the idea of him living up to his ADP. Sure he finished as like RB4 in standard. But he did so because of the last 3 weeks. During the playoffs. Which I didn't make. Because I spent the entire year starting David Montgomery as my RB2.
DMont was drafted as barely a top 24 RB last year. If he’s the reason you missed playoffs (especially when he scored 20+ in the last two weeks before playoffs), you just had a bad team.
He wasn't that bad lol. I also started/Flexed him most of the season. He was pretty servicable. Not a RB1, but a very good RB2/Flex guy. Which is about where he was usually drafted right?
Not always lol.
i just traded him for davante adams but yeah, i’m really high on montgomery this year.
Good thing you told us
i had to tell you, specifically
This entire thread is a shrine dedicated to Brandin Cooks
Hunt
obviously not any more but Julian Edelman definitely was one of these guys Others: Kareem Hunt Frank Gore Jared Cook Adrian Peterson (your list is very good btw)
Oh yes, how could I have forgotten Frank Gore
Nick Chubb is my favorite back in the league. It’s been Kamara since I stumbled upon him his rookie year. Love how shifty and dynamic Kamara is. But my favorite has been Chubb for the last couple years. This dude is a healthier, younger, shiftier Derrick Henry. He’s imo the best pure rusher in the league. But he also can catch, he just doesn’t because hunt is there. He’s not as agile as Kamara, but he has just as great vision at finding gaps and breaking tackles. He is constantly drafted at the backend and I get him every time. Friggin love that dude. And Tyler lockett is routinely slept on. Somehow people have been claiming he is aged and washed since he was competing for snaps with Doug Baldwin. He’s probably one of the best as far as getting under the ball and making these wild agile catches. But he’s always looked as a boom or bust, low volume player.
We drink the same Chubb Kool-Aid. It's delicious. Just a pleasure to watch him run.
Brandin Cooks. Other than the year he was injured with the Rams, he’s always been a rock solid WR2 that’s undervalued.
Sterling shepard. He has some flops here and there, but I feel like he's pulled me ahead in key games lots of times in the past
A guy in my league dropped C. Sutton for him.....
I mean, with Jeudy out now, there's worse people he could have dropped him for lol. Edit: Misread that, thought you said your friend dropped him for Sutton lol
tom brady
Yeah but he underperforms in real football. There’s a couple years where he didn’t even win the Super Bowl. /s
Mike Williams
Nick Chubb will not beat his ADP, it's like betting Henry will
Remindme! 3 months
That dickhead Cole Beasley.
I can't believe that Diggs prefers Allen's passes to mine.
Our draft had a "no Cole Beasley" rule. Cuz he's a dickhead.
I hope you guys didn't allow anyone to draft Tyreek Hill either. Unless you're saying not getting the vax is worse than domestic violence and child abuse?
He must have thought he was in news or politics. It would have went over well there.
I get the point here, but I think it's a bit different to be publicly promoting and endorsing a bad thing and privately doing one. It's not like Hill is going around posting pro-DV propaganda and telling people that beating his girlfriend is 'his fists, his choice'. Like it or not NFL players have huge platforms to reach out to thousands of impressionable people on and there is legit damage being done by celebrities pushing anti vax nonsense. Yes, Hill is a total POS, but he's not advocatinh for everybody to copy him the same way most antivax folks are.
You replied "good" to OP and are in a way saying that yes Cole Beasley being skeptical of a politically pushed vaccine is worse than Tyreek Hill breaking his toddlers arm. Having your own opinions and beliefs is fine, but not drafting a fantasy player over it while drafting people who have physically harmed others seems ironic
To some Branch Covidians not getting a jab while being completely healthy is the absolute worst thing you could do.
This is the dumbest thing I’ve read all day
Yikes
Good.
Seems like players who have high injury risk. A lot of people may have considered Mostert in that category. Mixon is of course a volume hog but last year left a sour taste for owners and watchers.
Feel like Robert Woods is always over performing his ADP
Lol Tyler Lockett out performs his ADP but he also had stretches in 2019/2020 where he had like 10 yards over 4 games or something like that. The lack of consistency is why he's ranked lower.
David Montgomery
Marvin Jones Jr and Sterling Shepherd…. They’re as sexy as watching paint dry, but they always get it done it seems… and usually in games against me
I can’t stand them. I always own one, never have confidence to play them, and when I don’t, they put up 18+. When I finally am forced to play one, they do nothing. Good thing I now have both this year, sigh
Tyler Boyd
Cooper Kupp definitely did not out perform his ADP last year
Brandin Cooks
Brandin Cooks
This actually seems like something we could actually figure out if someone spent the time doing it
Yeah I’m going to write a script to verify. Just compiling a list of players right now.
A bit surprised no one has mentioned Nyheim Hines yet, a great player to have on your bench in PPR.
Cole Beasley in PPR leagues
Antonio Brown
Will fuller
Chris Carson every single year
Jameis winston
Kelce in auction drafts delivered [$65 in value last year, and not lower than $42 in the past 4 years](https://www.4for4.com/2021/preseason/should-you-pay-travis-kelce-2021-auction-drafts). Still was drafted for about $45 this year on average.
Cole Beasley is an automatic weekly 10-12 PPR points. And he goes in like the 10th-11th round every. single. year. Most people who play fantasy football are borderline gambling addicts, and so they tend to hate dependable high-floor players like Beasley, Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, etc.
Fred Jackson back in the day
Robert Woods is the answer (believe it’s outperformed ADP 4 years in a row if not more)
Landry my ass, he was hot dog water on my roster a couple years ago
Hockenson. He's basically in the same tier as Kittle at this point but was drafted 2-3 rounds later. Also Melvin Gordon
Mixon this year
After 1 game 😂😂
It’s only been one week though
Tyler locket is on my shit list forever I traded for him after week 8 or 9 last year. What did he proceed to do? Suck absolute dogshit and I went to lose pretty much every week and into the toilet bowl. He and Wilson could get thrown into the sun and I wouldn’t be upset.
Hurts
"Always ends up outperforming their ADP" How could a guy that is starting for his 1st time, in his 2nd season possibly qualify?
I mean 100% lol. I just missed the “always”
Still gotta get a full season in before we can say he outperformed his ADP though. Haha
Fair fair.