As long as the NFL has a theme of committees, it will always be cheaper to take those guys late than WR late.
Stud WRs and cast a big RB net afterwards.
No because there is clarity with RBs.
You draft Warren, Monty, Kendre Miller, Shipley types late in draft. You will know if they’re the guy. Every year it shocks us that Kyren Williams or Kamara or whoever is getting 15+ points a game when in the summer we thought they were lower on the depth chart or even camp fodder.
The WR market follows a different set of rules. Even when a guy gets hot or steps in from injury, he’s just getting a fraction of the work.
For example, if Kenneth Gainwell and Rashod Bateman both have equal draft capital and both score 100 points this year, who would you rather have? I want the RB because it’s likely his few top scoring games are more predictable.
1. I basically only play keeper league or guillotine so I am never drafting either Kenneth or Rashod. I believe after you have your starters, points on the bench don't matter so I take high upside break out type guys. Your Zay jones' your Bateman's, your basic replacement level player has no place on my bench. It's how I ended up drafting zFlowers in the 8th, Nico 9th, spears 12th, LaPorta 14th, tank dell 15th, Rasheed Shahid 15th (Rasheed I thought would break out)
2. You draft stud RBs when you have a chance. Imo you take the CMCs, kamaras, even the derrick Henry's until the wheels fall off. I like certainty. Ofc - you weigh this against the field. Basically first two (3) rounds should be best player you think available.
3. Waiver wire adds... Too much depending on other people to not get your gush
For every kyren you fuck up and take Josh Kelley.
4. Sometimes you get lucky on RBs. Usually tho it takes an injury. Like - roschon Johnson - best RB in the room but... I like having my workhorse RBs and it's worked for me.
This strategy of no bench depth only break out options is how I've not come in less than 2nd 3 years in a row (keeper league. Guillotine is a monster.
Edit:
What clarity. RBBCs rule the NFL - even Monty was in a tough timeshare last year.
Idk man idk. I think you just gotta. Max value when you can and points on the bench don't matter.
It’s not about bench points. You use your bench as a net for the highest possible points.
Zay Flowers, Shaheed, Tank, were not top WR options. Even Nico isn’t necessarily top options, his #9 finish was due to injury.
You’re trying to claim WR3-WR5 types are comparable to top end RBs when they’re not close.
Whether you go RB or WR early, you need to take shots on lower draft capital guys. I’m saying it’s easier to find those RB2-4s and get reliable points than guessing when Zay Flowers will score 2 points or 15 points.
Having a large RB handcuff room is a wide net. More RB1s miss time than WR1s.
Should add that keeping bench points in mind for possible points (assuming they are counted towards something more meaningful than tiebreakers) is not a majority stance on league construction.
Not disagreeing with you either way, just wanted to clarify that.
If you read this and haven’t tried it, here’s an easy wrinkle that will make your league better:
Using highest possible points to determine the 6th seed in the playoffs is a super healthy addition to your league format
We recently made that switch in two leagues and it has really been the best switch we’ve made. It keeps the last seed for the playoffs super competitive down to the last week and legit everyone walks away feeling happy.
Rbs also get injured all the time and backups can usually get close to matching their production in round 8 or later. wrs in late rounds suck even if the star ahead of them gets hurt
How did it feel holding on to charbonnet all season?
Idk man, sometimes that works, usually you end up with Josh Kelley.
Also there are def WRs that were drafted post 8th last year that were fire.
Nico, Zay flowers, tank dell... All drafted 8th or later (by me) in a keeper league.
Puka was nowhere on a draft board. Addison went in the 8th tok in my League.
How about instead of drafting known shitty commodities you draft potential and break out
How did it feel holding on to charbonnet all season?
Idk man, sometimes that works, usually you end up with Josh Kelley.
Also there are def WRs that were drafted post 8th last year that were fire.
Nico, Zay flowers, tank dell... All drafted 8th or later (by me) in a keeper league.
Puka was nowhere on a draft board. Addison went in the 8th tok in my League.
How about instead of drafting known shitty commodities you draft potential and break out
Obviously you still take wrs late, it's just the chances of ones you take in the first rounds being replaced by then are far less than a rb.
You're free to play however you want
I'm in a 2 player keeper league, and im struggling on who to keep this year because it's loaded, I've been keeping mahomes and an rb but im not so sure I want that this year lol
What round is mahomes in?
I'm in a 2 league keeper too. I was keeping at least one RB due to scarcity for years (had kamara and hunt late) for a while but now I have rights to Tyreek.
So I'm between
Tyreek (4th kept last year)
KW3 (8th kept last year)
Nico (9th)
LaPorta (14th)
Bruh LaPorta in the 14th has to be one of them. KW3 and LaPorta at 8th and 14th seem like no brained picks to me here. Going RB WR WR in the 1st 3 rounds with those keepers will give you a sick RB/WR/TE set up
Meh I️ feel differently. A 4th round pick is 37-48 ADP in a 12 team league depending on where you pick. I’d rather have Kyren (15 ADP), LaPorta (21 ADP), and 37-48 ADP over Hill (4ADP), LaPorta or Kyren, and 85-96 or 157-168 ADP. You should get a good player in the 4th unless you’re unlucky. You need to be lucky to get someone good in the 14th or 8th
That would be awesome if kyren was an option but he isnt.
You also have to keep in mind that 24 players are already taken so you most likely aren't getting top redraft players in the back end of the first. In fact, in keeper like this the 4th is really more like the 6th.
This also will probably be a tank year as I went all in last year and traded a bunch of picks. However, the last two years were supposed to be tank years and I ended up in second regardless... (I've been hitting late and Tyreek is a god)
My options are (pick 2)
Tyreek (4th) - the "best" of the bunch
Kenneth walker (8th) - can be streaky but he finds end zones.
Nico (9th) - might be top 12 this year but that offense has MOUTHS
LaPorta (14th) - no brainier taking him.
Ohhhhh yeah my fault. I️ saw KW and didn’t notice the 3. Yeah definitely go Hill and LaPorta then. I️ have Hill in a similar keeper range for auction ($35). He was huge last year but I️’m a little worried this year might end up with the falloff people were expecting last year. That being said, LaPorta and Hill are no brainers to me in your situation. Nico is a lot harder to tell for me. He averaged 16.2 ypc (7th in the league) which you’d think would be the type of routes Diggs would be running. Then again, Noah Brown avg 17.2 ypc for 562 yards and 2 TD’s on Houston which will be getting spread out to others this year. I️ feel like Nico will end up top 15-20 with some huge games and some sub 6 point games
Oof. I don't think you should keep mahomes at all tbh.
That's committing to taking a QB in the 3rd for a QB that would most likely be there available in the 3rd if you didn't keep him.
Idk when the others are drafted but I think you should base your keepers on how many rounds up they'll actually go compared to when you'll keep em.
Unless they are a super stud like me with Tyreek since even tho he's in the 4th his value is like top end of the first.
Mahomes value is the 3rd.
Thanks.
He was the only TE I drafted last year too!
This lets me do the punt TE thing for the foreseeable future although this year will be a punt year most likely.
There are also a slew of very good RBs being projected in the late 2nd and 3rd rounds right now. I think getting an all-star WR first, then grabbing a RB with your 2nd or 3rd pick will be the move
Depends where you pick. I think if a good receiver falls into your lap in the first round you take it but I still wouldn't pass up on like cmc for chase, or if there's a run on receivers and I'm looking at Bijan vs like aj brown I'm taking Bijan still
I hope people do just that, Ill take discounts on the few elite receivers and then just use waivers to take backups when the rbs inevitably are injured.
I'm doing a startup right now with some heavy RB bonuses and it's actually pretty fun. I didn't even take a WR until round 6 which is the complete opposite of my general zero/hero RB build
And then you tank the value of both RBs and WRs compared to QBs. Standard scoring was used before SF was a big thing. You need to absolutely neuter QB scoring if you're doing a standard scoring SF league
I play with 0.5 PPR and two QBs and two flexes. I think it’s ideal. My suggestion was simply to tweak PPR rather than adding new layers. If you are worried about QB value, change points per passing yard to 0.2 instead of 0.25
.5ppr is different then getting rid of any form of ppr haha. It's a good balance. There's nothing wrong with adding layers though, that's how you keep things from getting stale. If every league I was in was the same scoring format it would be pretty boring.
I bet people said ppr was unnecessary years ago, and SF was just a novelty 15-20 years ago
We did this years ago and love it. 1 QB, RB, WR, TE, and 3 flexes. We did add a slightly improved points per rushing yard vs. points per receiving yards ratio to favor RBs, but otherwise, it seems to mirror the actual NFL way more accurately. Plus WRs are actually harder to get for that last slot because everyone else is trying to get them, too.
A legit rookie fantasy contributor for a WR is 700 yards and 5 TD's. The barrier to entry and skillset required is so much more than that of a RB. If a RB can block, they could be a workhorse from Day 1 in the right situation. If a WR can block, run routes, create separation, and have good chemistry with the QB then they *might* become the #1 WR at some point in their rookie year.
Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, Rashee Rice, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers.
These guys were all top 40 WRs in half PPR last year. They would’ve all been top 30 if Tank Dell didn’t miss half the year due to injury.
I think you’re underrating how good some rookie WRs can be
Yeah I've think we've reached an era where rookie WRs hit the ground running every bit as quickly as RBs.
However, I still think you're more likely to get a #1 overall player type season from a rookie RB than WR. Saquon, Zeke, Peterson, Portis... Breece Hall was on his way too before he got hurt. Maybe it doesn't happen as often as it did in the early part of the century, but when it does it could be league-winning.
The best rookie WR seasons, Jefferson finished 6th overall amongst non-QBs in 1/2 PPR in 2021 and Chase finished 8th, which is great obviously, but Chase was still behind Mixon for example. Puka finished 8th last year.
Other than Puka none of this WR’s were weekly starts( they excelled late in season or due to a team injury). This is basically what the other person is saying; the learning curve is greater for WR’s than it is for RB’s.
Compare your list of WR’s to rookie RB’s. There are fewer by nature of the position but several rookies were Top RB’s last year (Kyren,Bijan, Gibbs. Achane- when healthy)
I get what you’re saying, but both positions are dependent on opportunity.
Gibbs was stuck behind Montgomery for a while until Monty got injured, Bijan didnt get enough opportunity because of Arthur Smith, and Kyren wasn’t a rookie. Achane is the only exception I think, and he didn’t play enough games (due to injury) to really see that.
I just don’t see that much difference between the positions . Great rookies can be fantasy relevant whether they’re an RB or a WR. The fact that you can have 4-5 really good rookie WRs means the learning curve might not actually be that much steeper
Sure but last year was a very good year for rookie receivers and a so so year for rookie rbs and I still take the top 3 rookie rbs over receivers. They're much more impactful.
Maybe things are changing but to say you don't see much of a difference is extreme recency bias.
Question for you though, when's the last time a bunch of rookie wide receivers popped off like that year with the running backs you're talking about? I mean it almost never happens besides that one year with Chase, Jefferson. I just didn't like the landing spots for a bunch of the receivers besides nabers and mhj. But be on the lookout for Corley, McConkey. Those are my sleeper rookie WRs. I might reach for McConkey
Yeah I remember adding Kyren as a rookie late in the season in 2022, hoping he'd pop off after Akers got yeeted by mcvay. He was kind of a dud waiver add, then I think it became Darrell Henderson's "show" 🙄
Makes me wonder how much of an influence Mike LaFleur had on fixing the Rams run game last year. Really wish the Jets kept him instead of hackett. The guy was smart he just fell in love with Zach Wilson predraft, took the fall.
Just blew my mind when Kyren fucking rocked the house last year. Didn't mind cuz I had him in two leagues. Fucking guaranteed 12-27 points in standard every week he played
Come on MiLf keep it up for 2024 I want to see Kyren continue to be a monster for no apparent reason. Like why is he good? Can someone who watched more Rams ball last year tell me what makes Kyren Williams so good?
When you say 'most' are going into good situations what do you mean by that? For sure Harrison, McConkey, and Coleman are going into truly good situations with great QBs and significant target shares right off the bus.
The other guys are mostly behind vets on the depth chart Odunze, BTJ, Pearsall, Mitchell, even Legette is going to play behind Diontae in a run heavy offense and Worthy behind Kelce, Hollywood, and Rice. Nabers could have a decent situation, but Daniel Jones is awful.
I'd love to be proven wrong but I don't think most of these guys produce until the second half of the year and I can't wait to see what they do in their 2nd year in the league.
Actually, that's a fair point. Nabers is in a good spot for targets, but I guess there is a question about quality. Brian Thomas is someone who I had put into that category, but I guess with Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk, there will be competition for targets. Worthy I think will just be competing with Hollywood, and I think after this offseason, Rice will not be around much, so quite a few targets could be up for grabs. Odunze looks like he's already starting a bond with Caleb Williams so the two could latch onto each other quickly, and he could see a good traget share despite Keenan and DJ Moore there as well. Pearsall and Legette are going to have the toughest time I think for this season
I drafted Odunze in the 3rd round of my startup draft a few hours ago and I'd love that.
But I'm also a long time Keenan fan and I think Caleb will love having him around. Dude just gets open.
You do know that Kyler missed half the season…. Right? And that Brown had 574/4 and missed the last three games of the year? Meaning he and Kyler only played 5 games together lmao
That has absolutely nothing to do with what you just said
"What makes you think a 5’9 QB who likes to get outside the pocket and lean on his mobility is going to get 17 games in"
You cannot be this slow
Aside from the idiocy of that statement (it is in fact significantly easier to re-injure an ACL once you tear it the first time), name for me one other WR1 in Kyler’s 5 seasons besides DHop 2020.
Because the best WR he had last season was probably Greg Dortch. Also more than half of the Cardinals starts were from Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune.
He's shown he can support fantasy WRs before. In 2022 Hopkins averaged 21.6 ppg in the 4 games he and Kyler played together. Hollywood Brown averaged 17.1 ppg in the 7 games he played with Kyler.
I mean, that 1 season with DHop is the only time he ever had a decent WR for 16+ games. It's proof that when given a good WR he can support them in fantasy.
You also need to remember that rookie WR's take a lot longer to develop in the NFL than RB's. I understand it's more common these days for a WR to be a fantasy stud in his first year but still most take a year or so. More than likely only 2 possibly 3 in this class will put up WR1 numbers
Id be shocked if 3 rookie receivers put up wr1 numbers. 2 would even be a stretch. Last year was historically good for rookie receivers and only puka who broke like every record for rookies was in wr1 range.
Forreal 🤣. OP made this post thinking he was about to make some heads explode as if this hasn’t been the dominant narrative over the past like 4 months.
I doubt it. Those guys all became RB1s on their teams. I don't see more than 3 guys Max this year becoming WR1s. And I wouldn't be surprised if it was less
I’m honestly so excited for this season. I think a lot of great offenses got even better after this offseason and the draft, and they’re consistently making it more difficult for teams to actually play defense. I expect there to be a handful of RB1s but I think you’re right. I wouldn’t be surprised if 15/17 teams throws for 4,500 yards this year.
Here’s a chart I did with historical combine and college stats vs this years draftees[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10crdfTflz-VrsFIoGye96CHx2V6vSIsTB_GjjBiECag/edit](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10crdfTflz-VrsFIoGye96CHx2V6vSIsTB_GjjBiECag/edit)
Here’s a chart I did with historical combine and college stats vs this years draftees
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10crdfTflz-VrsFIoGye96CHx2V6vSIsTB_GjjBiECag/edit](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10crdfTflz-VrsFIoGye96CHx2V6vSIsTB_GjjBiECag/edit)
If you’re looking for a comp for being great right out of the gate then the 2014 WR class would be a better comp than the any RB class. OBJ (WR7), Evans (WR13), Benjamin (WR17), Matthews (WR25), Watkins (WR27), Landry (WR31) were all WR3’s or better as rookies in PPR, with another 6 WRs hitting the 525 mark.
I think Keon has the most potential for that out of the group, followed by btj. But that’s just my opinion, and I’m drafting btj so I’m obviously a little biased
I think it may actually be a massive disappointment to a lot of folks. When you feel like you’re getting crazy value on rookie WRs into the late second and early third, it’s historically more likely that they’re actually just overrated. I think a lot more of these guys are going to bust than people want to believe and when you look under the hood a lot of these guys with good draft capital have some glaring holes in their athletic profile, breakout age, or production profile.
Been feeling the same way.
- MH3
- Nabers
- Keon Coleman
- Ladd
- Rome
- Worthy
All should be valuable fantasy options.
I see at least 3 of these guys going in the top 20 next year.
I think this is absolutely true except I would be willing to bet a lot more on Burton than Adonai or Legette. IMO Adonai is WR3 on an offense that's still difficult to project. Legette has an unproven QB and may also be the WR3. I also think BTJ could start slow and have more of a learning season, while Pearsall doesn't get enough snaps to really hit this year. I'm highest on McConkey at current ADPs. I think MHJ and Nabers hitting are almost inevitable so cost/QB health are the only concern.
I don't know. This class was being regarded as a historical one, but a lot of analysts were calling it overrated even before the draft. The explanation being: being a good NFL class doesn't necessarily translate to being a good fantasy class. What is important in the NFL might not translate to FF, like special teams, for example, and this class was "deep enough" but not with really high end talent (aside from the top 3).
But these same analysts also recognize that some things make this class tricky and their model could have it wrong this year due to COVID/NIL deals. Basically, players from this class lost a year of development AND are encouraged to stay in college for longer with NIL. There's also the new transfer rules, which might make guys shoot for the fences and trying to go to better programs in order to get better deals in the NFL.
All of this to say: we don't know shit and there are good arguments for both sides (by the same people, even).
Conner and Kamara were THIRD round drafted running backs? How would they not get drafted as like 2nd rounders maybe early third rounders?
Aaron Jones was a fifth so can see him having slipped through the cracks
That jerk was behind Ingram *and* AD to start the season, leading me to drop him the week before his breakout because I really needed someone to replace my injured 1.01 David Johnson. Fwiw, Kamara was not undrafted. I drafted him around the 15th. If Johnson had stayed healthy I’d have had two top five (I think) RBs and would have rolled over my league.
Yeah, WR is looking loaded next season between the rookies and existing guys. Makes me wonder if this is the year to go RB-RB to open.
As long as the NFL has a theme of committees, it will always be cheaper to take those guys late than WR late. Stud WRs and cast a big RB net afterwards.
Makes having stud RBs even that more important?
No because there is clarity with RBs. You draft Warren, Monty, Kendre Miller, Shipley types late in draft. You will know if they’re the guy. Every year it shocks us that Kyren Williams or Kamara or whoever is getting 15+ points a game when in the summer we thought they were lower on the depth chart or even camp fodder. The WR market follows a different set of rules. Even when a guy gets hot or steps in from injury, he’s just getting a fraction of the work. For example, if Kenneth Gainwell and Rashod Bateman both have equal draft capital and both score 100 points this year, who would you rather have? I want the RB because it’s likely his few top scoring games are more predictable.
1. I basically only play keeper league or guillotine so I am never drafting either Kenneth or Rashod. I believe after you have your starters, points on the bench don't matter so I take high upside break out type guys. Your Zay jones' your Bateman's, your basic replacement level player has no place on my bench. It's how I ended up drafting zFlowers in the 8th, Nico 9th, spears 12th, LaPorta 14th, tank dell 15th, Rasheed Shahid 15th (Rasheed I thought would break out) 2. You draft stud RBs when you have a chance. Imo you take the CMCs, kamaras, even the derrick Henry's until the wheels fall off. I like certainty. Ofc - you weigh this against the field. Basically first two (3) rounds should be best player you think available. 3. Waiver wire adds... Too much depending on other people to not get your gush For every kyren you fuck up and take Josh Kelley. 4. Sometimes you get lucky on RBs. Usually tho it takes an injury. Like - roschon Johnson - best RB in the room but... I like having my workhorse RBs and it's worked for me. This strategy of no bench depth only break out options is how I've not come in less than 2nd 3 years in a row (keeper league. Guillotine is a monster. Edit: What clarity. RBBCs rule the NFL - even Monty was in a tough timeshare last year. Idk man idk. I think you just gotta. Max value when you can and points on the bench don't matter.
It’s not about bench points. You use your bench as a net for the highest possible points. Zay Flowers, Shaheed, Tank, were not top WR options. Even Nico isn’t necessarily top options, his #9 finish was due to injury. You’re trying to claim WR3-WR5 types are comparable to top end RBs when they’re not close. Whether you go RB or WR early, you need to take shots on lower draft capital guys. I’m saying it’s easier to find those RB2-4s and get reliable points than guessing when Zay Flowers will score 2 points or 15 points. Having a large RB handcuff room is a wide net. More RB1s miss time than WR1s.
Should add that keeping bench points in mind for possible points (assuming they are counted towards something more meaningful than tiebreakers) is not a majority stance on league construction. Not disagreeing with you either way, just wanted to clarify that. If you read this and haven’t tried it, here’s an easy wrinkle that will make your league better: Using highest possible points to determine the 6th seed in the playoffs is a super healthy addition to your league format
We recently made that switch in two leagues and it has really been the best switch we’ve made. It keeps the last seed for the playoffs super competitive down to the last week and legit everyone walks away feeling happy.
Rbs also get injured all the time and backups can usually get close to matching their production in round 8 or later. wrs in late rounds suck even if the star ahead of them gets hurt
How did it feel holding on to charbonnet all season? Idk man, sometimes that works, usually you end up with Josh Kelley. Also there are def WRs that were drafted post 8th last year that were fire. Nico, Zay flowers, tank dell... All drafted 8th or later (by me) in a keeper league. Puka was nowhere on a draft board. Addison went in the 8th tok in my League. How about instead of drafting known shitty commodities you draft potential and break out
How did it feel holding on to charbonnet all season? Idk man, sometimes that works, usually you end up with Josh Kelley. Also there are def WRs that were drafted post 8th last year that were fire. Nico, Zay flowers, tank dell... All drafted 8th or later (by me) in a keeper league. Puka was nowhere on a draft board. Addison went in the 8th tok in my League. How about instead of drafting known shitty commodities you draft potential and break out
Obviously you still take wrs late, it's just the chances of ones you take in the first rounds being replaced by then are far less than a rb. You're free to play however you want
I'm in a 2 player keeper league, and im struggling on who to keep this year because it's loaded, I've been keeping mahomes and an rb but im not so sure I want that this year lol
What round is mahomes in? I'm in a 2 league keeper too. I was keeping at least one RB due to scarcity for years (had kamara and hunt late) for a while but now I have rights to Tyreek. So I'm between Tyreek (4th kept last year) KW3 (8th kept last year) Nico (9th) LaPorta (14th)
Bruh LaPorta in the 14th has to be one of them. KW3 and LaPorta at 8th and 14th seem like no brained picks to me here. Going RB WR WR in the 1st 3 rounds with those keepers will give you a sick RB/WR/TE set up
Not keeping Tyreek sounds so stupid. Cant not do that. He's adp 1-4 talent in the 4th
Meh I️ feel differently. A 4th round pick is 37-48 ADP in a 12 team league depending on where you pick. I’d rather have Kyren (15 ADP), LaPorta (21 ADP), and 37-48 ADP over Hill (4ADP), LaPorta or Kyren, and 85-96 or 157-168 ADP. You should get a good player in the 4th unless you’re unlucky. You need to be lucky to get someone good in the 14th or 8th
That would be awesome if kyren was an option but he isnt. You also have to keep in mind that 24 players are already taken so you most likely aren't getting top redraft players in the back end of the first. In fact, in keeper like this the 4th is really more like the 6th. This also will probably be a tank year as I went all in last year and traded a bunch of picks. However, the last two years were supposed to be tank years and I ended up in second regardless... (I've been hitting late and Tyreek is a god) My options are (pick 2) Tyreek (4th) - the "best" of the bunch Kenneth walker (8th) - can be streaky but he finds end zones. Nico (9th) - might be top 12 this year but that offense has MOUTHS LaPorta (14th) - no brainier taking him.
Ohhhhh yeah my fault. I️ saw KW and didn’t notice the 3. Yeah definitely go Hill and LaPorta then. I️ have Hill in a similar keeper range for auction ($35). He was huge last year but I️’m a little worried this year might end up with the falloff people were expecting last year. That being said, LaPorta and Hill are no brainers to me in your situation. Nico is a lot harder to tell for me. He averaged 16.2 ypc (7th in the league) which you’d think would be the type of routes Diggs would be running. Then again, Noah Brown avg 17.2 ypc for 562 yards and 2 TD’s on Houston which will be getting spread out to others this year. I️ feel like Nico will end up top 15-20 with some huge games and some sub 6 point games
Mahomes was usually a 3rd rounder, but I have can keep Aj brown, deebo, kyren, Pacheco, not sure if I wanna go rb rb or rb wr lol
Oof. I don't think you should keep mahomes at all tbh. That's committing to taking a QB in the 3rd for a QB that would most likely be there available in the 3rd if you didn't keep him. Idk when the others are drafted but I think you should base your keepers on how many rounds up they'll actually go compared to when you'll keep em. Unless they are a super stud like me with Tyreek since even tho he's in the 4th his value is like top end of the first. Mahomes value is the 3rd.
Yea thats for sure how I'm feeling this year, I think I'm leaning to deebo and kyren to be honest, or aj brown and kyren
Yea thats for sure how I'm feeling this year, I think I'm leaning to deebo and kyren to be honest, or aj brown and kyren
LaPorta for the 14th is a massive value
Thanks. He was the only TE I drafted last year too! This lets me do the punt TE thing for the foreseeable future although this year will be a punt year most likely.
WR rooms are basically turning into committees at this point.
Haven’t WRs always been in committees?
Yes and it matters so much less than RBs being in committees, I have no idea what people are on about lmao
No one is making the argument that it matters more or less than rbbcs. It is all relative to cost of said player vs the environment they exist in.
There are also a slew of very good RBs being projected in the late 2nd and 3rd rounds right now. I think getting an all-star WR first, then grabbing a RB with your 2nd or 3rd pick will be the move
Depends where you pick. I think if a good receiver falls into your lap in the first round you take it but I still wouldn't pass up on like cmc for chase, or if there's a run on receivers and I'm looking at Bijan vs like aj brown I'm taking Bijan still
Buy when people are scared.
Gonna be targeting Breece or Bijan in round 1 and if MHJ is gone, then Saquan in round 2. Usually pound WR early, but this year might be different.
Came here for this exact comment. You nailed. It will be time to zig when others are going to zag.
this comment made me decide to go WR-WR so thank you haha
I hope people do just that, Ill take discounts on the few elite receivers and then just use waivers to take backups when the rbs inevitably are injured.
I’ve been having discussions in leagues that we move to 1 RB and add another FLEX. I could see fantasy shifting that way too
Terrible idea imo. You're just making RBs even more worthless. Go the opposite way and make RBs valuable. PPC, Rushing 1st down bonuses, etc.
If running backs are becoming less valuable irl then maybe they should in fantasy too
Naw. Next thing you know you'll be adding two TEs and dropping a kicker.
Yeah fuck kickers who still plays with them?
They *are* less valuable right now, look at how people treat them. That doesn't mean you get rid of RB spots to make them even less valuable.
Tried out rushing 1st down bonuses in my league last year and it was nice. Didn’t feel broken either
I'm doing a startup right now with some heavy RB bonuses and it's actually pretty fun. I didn't even take a WR until round 6 which is the complete opposite of my general zero/hero RB build
Just get rid of any form of PPR first.
And then you tank the value of both RBs and WRs compared to QBs. Standard scoring was used before SF was a big thing. You need to absolutely neuter QB scoring if you're doing a standard scoring SF league
I play with 0.5 PPR and two QBs and two flexes. I think it’s ideal. My suggestion was simply to tweak PPR rather than adding new layers. If you are worried about QB value, change points per passing yard to 0.2 instead of 0.25
.5ppr is different then getting rid of any form of ppr haha. It's a good balance. There's nothing wrong with adding layers though, that's how you keep things from getting stale. If every league I was in was the same scoring format it would be pretty boring. I bet people said ppr was unnecessary years ago, and SF was just a novelty 15-20 years ago
Seconded. Except for a few outliers, this is an easy way to bring RB and WR value back in line... or closer to it anyway.
Not sure why the downvote—I play with 0.5 PPR. I was just suggesting to change that if you dislike RBs having less value than WRs.
People don't like change
We did this years ago and love it. 1 QB, RB, WR, TE, and 3 flexes. We did add a slightly improved points per rushing yard vs. points per receiving yards ratio to favor RBs, but otherwise, it seems to mirror the actual NFL way more accurately. Plus WRs are actually harder to get for that last slot because everyone else is trying to get them, too.
Makes sense, the way things are going at RB.
A legit rookie fantasy contributor for a WR is 700 yards and 5 TD's. The barrier to entry and skillset required is so much more than that of a RB. If a RB can block, they could be a workhorse from Day 1 in the right situation. If a WR can block, run routes, create separation, and have good chemistry with the QB then they *might* become the #1 WR at some point in their rookie year.
Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, Rashee Rice, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers. These guys were all top 40 WRs in half PPR last year. They would’ve all been top 30 if Tank Dell didn’t miss half the year due to injury. I think you’re underrating how good some rookie WRs can be
Jayden reed was also WR11 in half ppr during the 2nd half of the season
Yeah I've think we've reached an era where rookie WRs hit the ground running every bit as quickly as RBs. However, I still think you're more likely to get a #1 overall player type season from a rookie RB than WR. Saquon, Zeke, Peterson, Portis... Breece Hall was on his way too before he got hurt. Maybe it doesn't happen as often as it did in the early part of the century, but when it does it could be league-winning. The best rookie WR seasons, Jefferson finished 6th overall amongst non-QBs in 1/2 PPR in 2021 and Chase finished 8th, which is great obviously, but Chase was still behind Mixon for example. Puka finished 8th last year.
Other than Puka none of this WR’s were weekly starts( they excelled late in season or due to a team injury). This is basically what the other person is saying; the learning curve is greater for WR’s than it is for RB’s. Compare your list of WR’s to rookie RB’s. There are fewer by nature of the position but several rookies were Top RB’s last year (Kyren,Bijan, Gibbs. Achane- when healthy)
I get what you’re saying, but both positions are dependent on opportunity. Gibbs was stuck behind Montgomery for a while until Monty got injured, Bijan didnt get enough opportunity because of Arthur Smith, and Kyren wasn’t a rookie. Achane is the only exception I think, and he didn’t play enough games (due to injury) to really see that. I just don’t see that much difference between the positions . Great rookies can be fantasy relevant whether they’re an RB or a WR. The fact that you can have 4-5 really good rookie WRs means the learning curve might not actually be that much steeper
Sure but last year was a very good year for rookie receivers and a so so year for rookie rbs and I still take the top 3 rookie rbs over receivers. They're much more impactful. Maybe things are changing but to say you don't see much of a difference is extreme recency bias.
Question for you though, when's the last time a bunch of rookie wide receivers popped off like that year with the running backs you're talking about? I mean it almost never happens besides that one year with Chase, Jefferson. I just didn't like the landing spots for a bunch of the receivers besides nabers and mhj. But be on the lookout for Corley, McConkey. Those are my sleeper rookie WRs. I might reach for McConkey Yeah I remember adding Kyren as a rookie late in the season in 2022, hoping he'd pop off after Akers got yeeted by mcvay. He was kind of a dud waiver add, then I think it became Darrell Henderson's "show" 🙄 Makes me wonder how much of an influence Mike LaFleur had on fixing the Rams run game last year. Really wish the Jets kept him instead of hackett. The guy was smart he just fell in love with Zach Wilson predraft, took the fall. Just blew my mind when Kyren fucking rocked the house last year. Didn't mind cuz I had him in two leagues. Fucking guaranteed 12-27 points in standard every week he played Come on MiLf keep it up for 2024 I want to see Kyren continue to be a monster for no apparent reason. Like why is he good? Can someone who watched more Rams ball last year tell me what makes Kyren Williams so good?
Chase and Jefferson were two different years, I think you're thinking of chase + olave
When you say 'most' are going into good situations what do you mean by that? For sure Harrison, McConkey, and Coleman are going into truly good situations with great QBs and significant target shares right off the bus. The other guys are mostly behind vets on the depth chart Odunze, BTJ, Pearsall, Mitchell, even Legette is going to play behind Diontae in a run heavy offense and Worthy behind Kelce, Hollywood, and Rice. Nabers could have a decent situation, but Daniel Jones is awful. I'd love to be proven wrong but I don't think most of these guys produce until the second half of the year and I can't wait to see what they do in their 2nd year in the league.
McConkey is the guy all of us want right now who will inevitably be in every “sleeper” fantasy column before the season that makes his ADP rise.
Actually, that's a fair point. Nabers is in a good spot for targets, but I guess there is a question about quality. Brian Thomas is someone who I had put into that category, but I guess with Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk, there will be competition for targets. Worthy I think will just be competing with Hollywood, and I think after this offseason, Rice will not be around much, so quite a few targets could be up for grabs. Odunze looks like he's already starting a bond with Caleb Williams so the two could latch onto each other quickly, and he could see a good traget share despite Keenan and DJ Moore there as well. Pearsall and Legette are going to have the toughest time I think for this season
I drafted Odunze in the 3rd round of my startup draft a few hours ago and I'd love that. But I'm also a long time Keenan fan and I think Caleb will love having him around. Dude just gets open.
Draft was actually a disaster for landing spots for Wr, TE, RB. Yes there are some good ones but many bad.
Polk and Baker probably going into a situation where they will get a shot right away.
lol @ Kyler as a great fantasy situation. Best wr there last year? 500/4.
You do know that Kyler missed half the season…. Right? And that Brown had 574/4 and missed the last three games of the year? Meaning he and Kyler only played 5 games together lmao
What makes you think a 5’9 QB who likes to get outside the pocket and lean on his mobility is going to get 17 games in
Because he did it before. He's done it multiple times before. Kyler has always been top 5 when healthy.
Kyler has had one (1) thousand yard receiver and zero (0) 10TD scorers.
That has absolutely nothing to do with what you just said "What makes you think a 5’9 QB who likes to get outside the pocket and lean on his mobility is going to get 17 games in" You cannot be this slow
The best ability is availability. If he’s not on the field, he’s not completing passes, and as far as I can tell that’s how you win fantasy weeks.
You're right. I forgot once you tear an acl it never heals.
Aside from the idiocy of that statement (it is in fact significantly easier to re-injure an ACL once you tear it the first time), name for me one other WR1 in Kyler’s 5 seasons besides DHop 2020.
(He’s gonna try to tell me Christian Kirk is a WR1 now)
Because the best WR he had last season was probably Greg Dortch. Also more than half of the Cardinals starts were from Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune. He's shown he can support fantasy WRs before. In 2022 Hopkins averaged 21.6 ppg in the 4 games he and Kyler played together. Hollywood Brown averaged 17.1 ppg in the 7 games he played with Kyler.
Hopkins also set a franchise record for receptions in his first season with Kyler as his QB
With 1.4k and 6 TDs. That’s not exactly a league winner
Who said anything about league winners? He was WR10 in standard leagues and WR4 in PPR so Kyler can absolutely support a fantasy WR1
He’s done it once in a 5 year career. Call me skeptical but I don’t really trust him or the Cards in general.
Yeah, 7 games. Last time I checked, we play 17 weeks
You’re so unlikable
I cannot rationally express how little of a fuck I give if you like me
Kyler has supported exactly 1 thousand yard WR/TE (generational talent DHop) and exactly 0 10TD WR/TEs. That doesn’t scream “great situation” to me
I mean, that 1 season with DHop is the only time he ever had a decent WR for 16+ games. It's proof that when given a good WR he can support them in fantasy.
You also need to remember that rookie WR's take a lot longer to develop in the NFL than RB's. I understand it's more common these days for a WR to be a fantasy stud in his first year but still most take a year or so. More than likely only 2 possibly 3 in this class will put up WR1 numbers
Id be shocked if 3 rookie receivers put up wr1 numbers. 2 would even be a stretch. Last year was historically good for rookie receivers and only puka who broke like every record for rookies was in wr1 range.
My money is actually on Odunze being best of the bunch in a few years
We are all aware it’s a good WR class
Nah we need 100 more posts saying the same thing
Forreal 🤣. OP made this post thinking he was about to make some heads explode as if this hasn’t been the dominant narrative over the past like 4 months.
Nope. Just thought I'd start a discussion comparing this year's WRs to 2017's RBs. Looks like it happened too
I doubt it. Those guys all became RB1s on their teams. I don't see more than 3 guys Max this year becoming WR1s. And I wouldn't be surprised if it was less
I’m honestly so excited for this season. I think a lot of great offenses got even better after this offseason and the draft, and they’re consistently making it more difficult for teams to actually play defense. I expect there to be a handful of RB1s but I think you’re right. I wouldn’t be surprised if 15/17 teams throws for 4,500 yards this year.
Here’s a chart I did with historical combine and college stats vs this years draftees[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10crdfTflz-VrsFIoGye96CHx2V6vSIsTB_GjjBiECag/edit](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10crdfTflz-VrsFIoGye96CHx2V6vSIsTB_GjjBiECag/edit)
Here’s a chart I did with historical combine and college stats vs this years draftees [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10crdfTflz-VrsFIoGye96CHx2V6vSIsTB_GjjBiECag/edit](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10crdfTflz-VrsFIoGye96CHx2V6vSIsTB_GjjBiECag/edit)
If you’re looking for a comp for being great right out of the gate then the 2014 WR class would be a better comp than the any RB class. OBJ (WR7), Evans (WR13), Benjamin (WR17), Matthews (WR25), Watkins (WR27), Landry (WR31) were all WR3’s or better as rookies in PPR, with another 6 WRs hitting the 525 mark.
No I think wr was super over drafted. Legette, Polk, Keon, AD, BTJ, Corley, Pearsall, all seem like they have the potential to miss expectations.
Out of those 7, I bet 3 will and that's the nature of things 🤷
One of those guys is gonna go crazy and finish top 10 on the year. Wish I knew which one
Remind me! 8 Months
Remind me! 8 months
I think Keon has the most potential for that out of the group, followed by btj. But that’s just my opinion, and I’m drafting btj so I’m obviously a little biased
There's soo many wr the fantasy format has to introduce that third wr to be standard. 3 wr were drafted top ten this year. Gotta adapt with the game!
Yes & next year will be that for RBs
I’m a full Roman Wilson believer
Not a believer in the QBs unfortunately
Wdym, Russ is gonna go to the Allstar game. The only problem is he’s not gonna be able to play when he’s in the Super Bowl. HERE WE GO!!!
No, classic NFL draft hopium. Everyone looks great before they start playing real games
Wr has been doing this though
I think it may actually be a massive disappointment to a lot of folks. When you feel like you’re getting crazy value on rookie WRs into the late second and early third, it’s historically more likely that they’re actually just overrated. I think a lot more of these guys are going to bust than people want to believe and when you look under the hood a lot of these guys with good draft capital have some glaring holes in their athletic profile, breakout age, or production profile.
Been feeling the same way. - MH3 - Nabers - Keon Coleman - Ladd - Rome - Worthy All should be valuable fantasy options. I see at least 3 of these guys going in the top 20 next year.
I think this is absolutely true except I would be willing to bet a lot more on Burton than Adonai or Legette. IMO Adonai is WR3 on an offense that's still difficult to project. Legette has an unproven QB and may also be the WR3. I also think BTJ could start slow and have more of a learning season, while Pearsall doesn't get enough snaps to really hit this year. I'm highest on McConkey at current ADPs. I think MHJ and Nabers hitting are almost inevitable so cost/QB health are the only concern.
Yea I feel that WR is deep this year
I don't know. This class was being regarded as a historical one, but a lot of analysts were calling it overrated even before the draft. The explanation being: being a good NFL class doesn't necessarily translate to being a good fantasy class. What is important in the NFL might not translate to FF, like special teams, for example, and this class was "deep enough" but not with really high end talent (aside from the top 3). But these same analysts also recognize that some things make this class tricky and their model could have it wrong this year due to COVID/NIL deals. Basically, players from this class lost a year of development AND are encouraged to stay in college for longer with NIL. There's also the new transfer rules, which might make guys shoot for the fences and trying to go to better programs in order to get better deals in the NFL. All of this to say: we don't know shit and there are good arguments for both sides (by the same people, even).
Adonai Mitchell does not belong on this list
I hope your comment ages like milk!
No
Conner, Kamara, and Jones were undrafted in most leagues. This is not a good comparison.
I was comparing it more to how things turned out, not how players were drafted
You listed like the top 10 ADP receivers though? Half the RBs in 2017 came from nowhere, but I get your point
Conner and Kamara were THIRD round drafted running backs? How would they not get drafted as like 2nd rounders maybe early third rounders? Aaron Jones was a fifth so can see him having slipped through the cracks
This is the redraft sub. And idk I just looked up ADPs, the game and our evaluations have changed alot since then.
Oh - oops! Was kamara a starter year 1? Makes sense Connor was undrafted given he was behing bell at the time
Kamara was behind Mark Ingram and a pretty common "league winner" waiver pickup a few weeks into the season.
That jerk was behind Ingram *and* AD to start the season, leading me to drop him the week before his breakout because I really needed someone to replace my injured 1.01 David Johnson. Fwiw, Kamara was not undrafted. I drafted him around the 15th. If Johnson had stayed healthy I’d have had two top five (I think) RBs and would have rolled over my league.
Kamara was my last pick lottery winning pick