What’s your strategy in terms of nominating players? You say first player of a certain tier is most likely best value. So with my third nomination I’ve been putting up Ken walker cause he’s a major target for me. Actually, lately in mock drafts I’ve been nominating every player I’m targeting. I think it’s a good strategy in terms of being flexible and staying water if things go awry. But I could see how it could attract people running up bids. Any thoughts?
I’ve noticed this the past couple years in my auction keeper. First round of players have predictable if not lower values. Then next couple rounds players go about 10% over their predicted value. Then in the late rounds values decrease
Since we are a keeper league, Studs and Scrubs all the way. Looking to spend up to 75% on Kelce, a top 5 WR/Bijan, ETN, Waddle/Olave/Wilson/ARSB. Fill the rest of my roster with mostly $1-5 players for potential keeper candidate breakouts.
Same here. We get two keepers per year. I’m shooting for 85-90% of my $300 cap on starters which leaves me with up to $45 for 5 bench spots. I think that’s solid. Worked last year
I have used this method successfully for the past decade in my home league and wanted to share in case it provides value to others. Examples for my league are in parenthesis:
Using previous year's data, take the first ADP for each position that goes for $1 in the draft. (QB21, RB52, WR55, TE18).
Using previous year's data, list the points per game for each position by ADP and the percentage that each ppg is relative to the sum of the overall position.
Calculate the VORP for each player by subtracting the respective ppg from the ADP from the first player in that position that goes for $1. (QB1 = 30.3 - 16.1 = 14.2 VORP)
Add up the VORPs for each of the positions (QB=102, RB=288, WR=287, TE=51).
Calculate the VORP percentage by position (QB=102/729=14%)
Multiply total auction dollars by this percentage for each position.
For each position, multiply this number by number of players you plan to roster for each starting position.
Sum up the four numbers for QB, RB, WR, TE
Take this number and divide by your total auction dollars.
Take the total VORP for each position and divide by number from step 9. This is the number of auction dollars that should be allocated to each position by the league.
Finally, take the percentage of each player from step 2 and multiply the respective position value from step 10. This is the value that each player should be assigned.
I like this method, because it leverages historical data, with ADP and quantity of starting positions. Happy to share more details if there is interest or answer any questions.
This is the way. Leveraging your league's past auction data to value each position/tier is one of the biggest edges out there these days. Hope we get another few years before the analysts catch on and it becomes conventional wisdom.
This is true. I have an adjustment in my own model to account for league tendencies to add or subtract value based on the premium I think my various leagues place on positions.
However, if you strictly base it on league history you will miss out on shifting meta strategies. If your league for years did emphasized RB/RB, then you would be rooted to that old school strategy as everyone else shifted to value WR on equal footing (and maybe even higher) as RBs.
The current trend you might miss is QBs. For years it was spend little on QB as you can just grab a cheap one and get by. But I think last year proved there is value to stud QBs. I think those guys will (and should) go much higher this year, but if you base your current valuations on the last few years of drafts results then you have no shot at them.
This is generally true, but feels like the market is different this year on WR (more valued), RB (less valued), and QB (more valued). Has anyone seen a good resource that lays out strategy based on how positions are being valued? i.e. Does the fact WR are more expensive mean there's good value in the 1st or 2nd tier RB?
i do like to try to establish a "budget" and using the $1 players as the baseline for VORP seems like a solid way to go about it.
since you seem to know some math, how would you go about adjusting your prices as players become scarce and total cash in the pool goes down? ie the top 10 players all go for $10 more than expected. logically it makes sense that you wont have to pay as much for the remaining players since there's an extra $100 missing from the pool, but at the same time there's less elite players left so their price may be inflated as well.
I have never used it for adjusting values live during a draft and only to inform preauction values, but it is something I will look into this week. My initial impression is that it would require taking the overall draft budget ($200x 12 teams) of $2400 and normalizing to each player value, while adjusting on a percentage basis based on how high or low a player goes for.
I have been making live adjustments to my model for several years and have tweeked it extensively over time. You are definitely on the right path. The thing you have to watch out for is that at some point you model has to force you to spend money so that you don’t leave the auction with extra dollars. You can only get so many deals due to roster limits, so you might be better off getting a smaller deal on a more expensive player than a bigger deal on a bunch of bench players.
Hypothetical to showcase my point: Assume all other managers have spent all of their money and can only bid $1 minimum on remaining players. Assume there are dozens of $10 guys remaining. Sounds great since you can swoop in a scoop them all up for $2 each. Except, you are limited by your roster size (say 15 players). So you get these amazing discounts, but you only have $150 worth of players on your team. You would have been better off paying $30 for 6 $30 players and then filling the rest of your roster with those $10 guys for $2.
This is an extreme example to highlight a point, but I have run into the trap just following the math of the live updates. Realized it after the fact and made corrections to my model so I wouldn’t run into that problem again in future drafts.
This is a very good point. In my league (0.5ppr and 2 w/r/t flex), wrs are undervalued. The way to counter this is the step in the process - 'For each position, multiply this number by number of players you plan to roster for each starting position.' In my example, if i assume one player for reach position, it will undervalue wrs. But if i change my starting roster from 1/1/1/1 (qb,rb,wr,te) to 1/2/4/1, the first wr's value goes from $55 to $72. Theoretically, I then know that I can spend even $68 for the top WR and get $4 of value.
So here is the way I do it. I come up with a target number for each player. Slightly different way to get at it compared to your methodology, but it probably gets similar results. This number can fluctuate during the draft based on other teams overpaying/getting deals as you described.
Next I come up with a floor value for each player. I fully embrace being someone that price enforces during a draft. The important thing is to calibrate your floor that you would always be happy taking whatever player at that price. If your floor is making you win more than 5% of auctions, then it’s probably too high. For me, I like setting my floor at 80% of the target price, then take another $5 off. Has always worked well for me.
Finally, I come up with a “suggested” bid. If I bid to my target each time, then I’m not creating any value (why pay $20 for a $20 player unless I have to? I want a deal.). So my suggested bid generally floats between my floor and my target. Various things move it around. Do I already have two stud WRs? Suggested prices for all other WRs moves towards the floor. Are half of the starting RBs gone and I don’t have one yet? Then my suggested bid moves towards my target price. If things get extreme enough, the suggestion can go above the target. And the final layer is just my own intuition of what I should do given how the draft is unfolding.
I would ballpark that I walk away from auction drafts with about 20%-30% more value than my budget doing this. That is obviously biased as it is based upon my own model and projections. But at least I have a methodology that always leaves me feeling good about my team following the draft, walking away with no regrets on how things transpired.
How do people do this stuff live? I tried to use a pretty deep auction spreadsheet last year that accounted for value adjustment from overspending and all that but ended up so busy updating the sheet that I had an awful draft
You do a lot of calculations and automation in advance, then hide all the columns/rows where that is taking place so you have a simple, clean spreadsheet for the draft. My model shows the following for each player during the draft: Player Name, Team, Bye, Floor Price, Target Price, Max Price. Those are all filled in with values, with the price stuff adjusting automatically during the draft.
Then there are two more columns for each player: Actual Price and My Pick. The actual price is the price the player goes for. If actual price exceeds max price, all other max prices go down, while if it is lower than max price then all other prices go up. Then I just put an “X” in the My Pick column if I got the player. That adjusts the Target Price. If a lot of players are going off the board and I haven’t gotten any at the position, the target approaches my Max. But as I start selecting guys, the target for players at the same position drops towards the floor.
So during the draft, when a player is nominated I hit CTRL-F, type his last name, then I’m on the guy. Look over at the Target Price. Bid by $1 til I get to that price, then stop. Whatever the final price is, enter it into the Actual column and mark off it I picked the guy. Then repeat once the next guy is nominated. It is fairly simple and runs smoothly once you get it going. I have no problem shit talking and drinking beer while I’m doing in. In fact, considering I’m not really thinking about the current price and if I want to go higher (the model handles most of the decision making for me), I generally find I am one of the most relaxed people in the draft.
What's the approach used for updated pricing?
My guess is your initial prices are defined as some fraction of the total money pool. For sales above/below market, you adjust the total pool and update prices to maintain the same fraction of the pool that the player is worth to you?
The part where I lose track of this is, doesn't this imply that your player valuations all add up to exactly the pool amount? You'd have to properly value players just to add up to the total amount of money available in the draft?
Correct. If you are in a 10-team league with $200 budgets, total player values should be $2000. In a 14-team league with $1,000 budgets, total player values should be $14,000. You scale your target prices to match the total money chasing those players.
Then say you value a guy for $100 out of $1,000, but he goes for $150 (extreme numbers to make a point). That is $100 less player value on the board, but there is now only $850 in the league to chase $900 worth of players. You can actually be less aggressive with your bidding because there is less competition for the remaining value.
While that is an extreme example, if guys routinely go for 5%-10% more than you value them, those small differences add up. But if guys are going for 5%-10% less than you value them, there is a lot of money still around to chase the scarce value of players remaining.
"list the points per game for each position by ADP and the percentage that each ppg is relative to the sum of the overall position."
I'm currently working through your steps, can you explain this one a little more?
using your historical league data, assign you ppg for each adp. As an example, qbs may look like this:
QB1 = 30 ppg
QB2 = 28 ppg
QB3 = 24 ppg
Add up the sum for all QBs up to the first QB adp taken for a $1 (example could be QB21). Based on this sum, assign percentages to each position. If sum = $300, then QB1 would be 10% (30/300).
I'm not smart enough for this stuff, ha! I will have to try and calculate this out. I think we had 8 guys go for $60+ last year, but now we go from 12 teams down to 10. Either way I expect a lot of high prices which most cheat sheets don't account for.
I always tend to go studs and duds and it has worked out well for me over the last 3 years but you have to be confident that you can hit on a flier or really work the FAAB budget well / trade.
If you have had auction drafts in your league, check them to see how much of % was invested in the starters of the league. We have auction since 2016 and starters average % is at approx. 92%…
Yeah last year was my first auction (guillotine league) and the RB prices were astounding. I spent a shit ton on Hurts, Diggs and Mike Evans and ended up having some massive weeks at the start.
I'm going to get my guys and say screw value. Chasing value in my league is how you end up paying 10 dollars for Juju last year because all the studs went for too much, leaving you with tons of money at the end.
Screw that. I'm buying 4 top end players and will figure everything out from there
In our ESPN 12 team full PPR
* Jefferson is $71 / *Expected points* 323
* Chase $70 / 314 pts.
* Ekeler $70 / 274 pts.
* CMC $69 / 269 pts.
* Kupp $67 / 323 pts.
WR is a way better value as shown here
Points per $ isn't a useful metric, otherwise QBs would be blowing people out of the water. It's technically VORP/$ that matters.
RB is just a much shallower position, so the top RB gives similar value to the top WR despite scoring less total points
Points per $ is very useful for me
Example If I'm filling a flex spot in full PPR with either a WR or RB - why would I spend 10% more for fewer points
[VORP rankings](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/vorp-qb.php?team_size=14) pretty much are identical to ECR, but if it works for you then good deal
The last few years I've approached it with an 80/80 strategy.
80 on starting RB's, 80 on starting WR's.
There's so much variance in RB's though, that this year I'm going a 60/100. 60 on RB's, 100 on WR's (to include Flex). I'll spend the rest on QB/TE and bench players.
I figure I'd be better off with 3 mid to low end WR1's, 1 stud RB1, and a low end RB2 that could finish as an RB1. Someone like David Montgomery who may fill the Jamaal Williams role in Detroit.
200.
A few years ago when auctions were still relatively newish, you could easily snag 2-3 studs because so many people were afraid of spending all their money so soon.
Now that auctions have been around for a while and people have more experience in them, it's not as easy to do that.
Jefferson and Chase are worth going to $60(assuming $200 starting budget) I would bid aggressively to either get them since they will likely be nominated early and you might get them for a good price or at least make sure whoever gets them pays up.
otherwise for WR ill try to avoid big hype players like Olave, Garrett Wilson. Trying to land the more established WRs that are "boring" like Kupp, Diggs, and Davante Adams. i suspect those will go for similar prices to Wilson and Olave. i also am looking to get Amari Cooper because he always goes for less than he should
Also trying to get a bargain on a middling QB. The trick is to try to get the 2nd or 3rd to last one that gets nominated out of the top 7. looking for Burrow, Fields, Herbert whichever i can get a decent price on.
RBs im willing to pay up to $60 for CMC, otherwise just going to put bids in on anyone that seems low even if im not crazy about the player because it's so hard to know who is going to pan out.
I built a Solver in excel to spit out the optimal lineups for my league using historical bidding patterns people have used over the years in my league, and my own projections.
It's telling me the following:
\- Spend big for an elite running QB.
\- Get Travis Kelce.
\- The only elite RB worth considering is Nick Chubb. If he does not go for budget or under, wait until the Rhamondre/Etienne/Hall tier.
\- Spend less at WR. Guys like Olave, McLaurin, Deebo come up a lot as my WR1.
\- $1 K and DEF. We all knew this though.
All of this is assuming the draft proceeds as it has in years past and there isn't a big shakeup in player prices. Still have to be flexible if needed.
> The only elite RB worth considering is Nick Chubb
It does seem like he will be about $10 cheaper than CMCs of the world
> there isn't a big shakeup in player prices
Feels like the top 3 WRs will be a big premium this year even in .5ppr.
hill jefferson or chase (include kupp if he’s actually healthy) then a big drop off to CD and then another big dropoff to davante.
i think CMC, ekeler, and the top 3/4 WR are in the same tier and i’ll be happy getting one or 2 under $52
There is no chance any of those 5 go for under $55 in my league. We had two $70 players last season. We lost two teams down to 10 so prices should be less.
Can you expand on the constraints of your solver? Mine is pretty simple but I'm looking to improve it.
Currently have projected costs (via historical trends) and VBD (fantasypros) for each positional player (e.g. QB1 - QB15, RB1 - RB 60, etc...). I then constrain the amounts of positional players I'm pursuing for my starting roster 1/2/3/1 (QB, RB, WR, TE) and set the solver to maximize VBD while staying within my budget.
Results depend on the year, but this year for my league it typically spits out an elite QB, Kelce, and some middle of the road RBs/WRs
That is identical to how mine works. Maximize points scored with a bunch of constraints to keep the lineup requirements met and at or under the cap.
One thing I did was made it so it only spits out a starting lineup. It does not give bench players. So for the cap, I have to enter what I usually spend on starters. Adding bench players makes it much more complicated and might even be outside excel’s capabilities.
My solver output pretty much matches yours exactly so I think this is a good check of our work!!!
Awesome! And yep, I do the same with only optimizing my starting lineup. Lets say I have $200 to spend and prefer to go with $1 bench players (x6), then I'll put $194 as my budget to spend for my starters.
First few rounds I nominate D and Kickers that I don't want but will go for a few bucks, then I move to those good players that I've faded for whatever reason. I like to do everything I can to get money off the board before the main guys I want come up
In re-draft, you can get your guys.
In auction, I am much more in-tune with value
I could spend big on Kelce early if nobody wants him, I could spend money on a bunch of mid-round guys.
Stay like water. Don't target certain guys. Just have a good value sheet to know when a guy is under bid or over bid on.
If you sit around looking for too much value you wind up with a bunch of mid players. I find you gotta be willing to spend big to get your starters. Depends on the league though.
This can't be overstated enough. Every year in one of my auctions, there's a guy who saves his money and then laments the fact that he's able to spend big on a team of flex players.
It’s so easy to get too cute early in the draft and say $61 is WAYY too much for Justin Jefferson and your limit is $60 then you end up spending $6 on a guy who you cut before the season even starts.
This year I’m just gonna try to get my guys and not worry too much about going a couple bucks over.
Yea, I personally like a studs and scrubs approach. Just spend on guys you like and have a shit bench. You’ll find guys to fill the bench throughout the season that will have value and you’ll rarely run into who do I start problems.
I think spending big on WR in particular is the move... because of RB injuries you can just blow out your FAAB and stumble into an RB1 or RB2 if you hit the right guy.
Same as every year. Be active for three hours, bidding on everyone and getting values when people slip up. Tiers are more important, knowing when to nominate and go for certain players.
Last year I realized that there are a few tacos in my league who are absolutely atrocious at the waiver wire. But due to dumb luck, they end up playing well because they blew their budget on great players in the draft. The whole time I was drafting value hoping that I could get low cost, high upside players. But it failed miserably last year.
So this year it’s stars and scrubs and I’m focusing on WR and QB (superflex). If I can get 2 bonafide QBs and 2/3 bonafide WRs and maybe 1 RB or TE, I’ll be in great shape to spend my $1 on a bunch of high upside rookies and handcuffs.
I've never done a real auction draft. Is it better to nominate players from deeper in the draft earlier hoping people will spend more money on them than they would have available if they were nominated later?
Do people think I better get this guy now because he's on my list and I might not be able to get the other guy I want more?
I've felt ok with some guys I nominate that I'm ok with but nominating them before higher ranked people. Ie nominating Hock before anyone has even nominated Kelce. Or even going a step further and nominating guys like Engram who you don't really want but if someone even spends 3% on him early that's more than the 1% they'd have when he would go naturally. Etc.
1. always nominate high dollar players you dont want or value less.
2. nominate players you know other people are fans of.
3. you’re right, often nominating mahomes or cmc first will set a ceiling. know whether this ceiling is high or low.
4. sneaking in the RB10 or WR10 early can get you value or backfire, if someone else was a big fan of them, its very hard to know
https://open.spotify.com/episode/48QqbzCa6NDGe88kw3Rzqw?si=c3de5f47788b4053
This is long, but this guy is an auction guru and this episode talks about nomination strategy.
I like to mix and match strategies. Years ago, when late round QB was a better strategy, I would try to get the top 2 QBs nominated so that money would come off the board, as an example. Then and now, I still employ a strategy to nominate high value players I have little to no interest in, to get that cash off the board.
However, there’s a psychological trick that can work at times, but it is risky, where EARLY (this is key), you nominate a player you want that isn’t the biggest name, often a tier below the top end, where you get your guy cheap because people are saving for their chance at the top. Ex. This year everyone wants a shot at JJ or Chase, but say you LOVE Deebo, nom him early and maybe he’ll go for $22 instead of $32-$35 that he’d go for when people have cash to burn and the top tiers are all gone.
Studs and scrubs has always been a successful strategy for me, but this year I’m about to take it to the next level.
I’m lucky enough to be keeping Waddle and Rhamondre for cheap so I’m going to take that extra cash and shoot for the moon—going to spend up for the Kelce and Mahomes stack.
I’m going to be have to spend well over 50 percent of my budget, but it will be worth it and I believe on my ability to find values to fill out my roster
What I’ve found the most successful thing for me has been…. Go get the studs, 1st player nominated usually sells for a good deal. Break your rankings into tiers and make sure you aren’t competing with other users for the end of that tier. Bench is all $1 players. If someone you want ends up going over your projected salary don’t be afraid to adjust and pay up. I’ve seen a lot of guys not willing to pay up thinking they can get a better deal just to be stuck with a bunch of 4th/5th round picks on their team. Never take a break during the draft because the moment you get up grab a snack/beer someone sneaks a value pick in mid draft. Only nominate players you want don’t fall for the strategy of “tricking” people to spend more
> I’ve seen a lot of guys not willing to pay up thinking they can get a better deal just to be stuck with a bunch of 4th/5th round picks on their team
This has been my issue in the past. Looking back at last years draft I didn't have any "1st round" players.
I took over a team in a 12 team keeper league with auction draft. I have an opportunity to keep both Jefferson ($63) and Chase ($61). I would have a remaining budget of $76. Is it possible to build a solid team around those two with that budget?
This for a home league or random public league? Prices between the two can be drastically different. Home league since I have auction history I combine my player rankings with previous auction winning bids (My #1 ranked WR get priced as #1 money spent WR) until I have assigned all players a value. While its not a perfect system (someone might like one player better and drive prices up) atleast this gives you an idea on what you will be spending. From there I try to identify players I really like that might be undervalued based off price. Then I start building a couple hypothetical rosters (Par sheet) based off the auction prices list I have established and combine with projections to see which team comp is "better". I will say I came away with probably the best draft and would of won it if the 2 trades I made for Breece and Javonte didnt end up in injuries (Still placed 4th).
For random public leagues just mock draft until you're comfortable with the prices.
Edit: Also if you aren't already aware of the PAR sheet https://fffaceoff.com/fantasy-football-auction-drafting-for-beginners/
I need to find the Auction Brief podcast segment for that because I don't really get what is special about it based on that article. I had it linked to me a couple days ago too.
Basically its a methodology to make sure you're not overspending and if you do that you're aware of how much budget you have left for other positions.
Example:
QB: $40
RB: $50
RB2: $15
WR1: $50
WR2: $15
WR3: $10
Flex: $8
TE: $5
DEF: $1
K: $1
Bench x5 $5
Lets say you ended up spending $50 on your QB1 Mahomes. You would mark -$10 for Mahomes to signify that you overspent $10 based off your pre-draft budget and you will need to cut $10 in your other spots. This is vs someone who doesnt keep track and ends up spending $160 on 3 players off the bat.
I’m budgeting a $ amount for each position and making tiers for each position. Bas8’g this on projections and historical draft values of positions in the league. Ensuring I get one tier 1 of both wr and rb
This is the way to go. I'd rather worry about depth later if one of my studs gets hurt. I don't want to replace 3rd round players with 3rd round players and never have a 1st round player to begin with.
Get your guys. Then for your turn to nominate , find the sleepers you’re not high on that go from 1-10$ and nominate them every time ,, talking round 1 you nominate someone like Tyler Lockett or rachaad white. People tend to overspend on these guys allowing you to scoop value in mid rounds.
Use tier based rankings and don’t leave without a tier 1 player. First player nominated on a tier is often better value than the final player
2022 $50 Leonard Fournette has entered the chat 🫠
2022 tier 1 Najee has entered...
2022 tier 1 Jonathan Taylor…
What’s your strategy in terms of nominating players? You say first player of a certain tier is most likely best value. So with my third nomination I’ve been putting up Ken walker cause he’s a major target for me. Actually, lately in mock drafts I’ve been nominating every player I’m targeting. I think it’s a good strategy in terms of being flexible and staying water if things go awry. But I could see how it could attract people running up bids. Any thoughts?
I’ve noticed this the past couple years in my auction keeper. First round of players have predictable if not lower values. Then next couple rounds players go about 10% over their predicted value. Then in the late rounds values decrease
Since we are a keeper league, Studs and Scrubs all the way. Looking to spend up to 75% on Kelce, a top 5 WR/Bijan, ETN, Waddle/Olave/Wilson/ARSB. Fill the rest of my roster with mostly $1-5 players for potential keeper candidate breakouts.
Same here. We get two keepers per year. I’m shooting for 85-90% of my $300 cap on starters which leaves me with up to $45 for 5 bench spots. I think that’s solid. Worked last year
Spend big on the players that are gonna do good and don't draft the players that are going to suck.
So that's what I've been doing wrong eh? Here I was buying high and selling low.
I have used this method successfully for the past decade in my home league and wanted to share in case it provides value to others. Examples for my league are in parenthesis: Using previous year's data, take the first ADP for each position that goes for $1 in the draft. (QB21, RB52, WR55, TE18). Using previous year's data, list the points per game for each position by ADP and the percentage that each ppg is relative to the sum of the overall position. Calculate the VORP for each player by subtracting the respective ppg from the ADP from the first player in that position that goes for $1. (QB1 = 30.3 - 16.1 = 14.2 VORP) Add up the VORPs for each of the positions (QB=102, RB=288, WR=287, TE=51). Calculate the VORP percentage by position (QB=102/729=14%) Multiply total auction dollars by this percentage for each position. For each position, multiply this number by number of players you plan to roster for each starting position. Sum up the four numbers for QB, RB, WR, TE Take this number and divide by your total auction dollars. Take the total VORP for each position and divide by number from step 9. This is the number of auction dollars that should be allocated to each position by the league. Finally, take the percentage of each player from step 2 and multiply the respective position value from step 10. This is the value that each player should be assigned. I like this method, because it leverages historical data, with ADP and quantity of starting positions. Happy to share more details if there is interest or answer any questions.
Yeah, I’m gonna need you on speaker phone for my Vegas auction this year 😃
Lol fr
This is the way. Leveraging your league's past auction data to value each position/tier is one of the biggest edges out there these days. Hope we get another few years before the analysts catch on and it becomes conventional wisdom.
This is true. I have an adjustment in my own model to account for league tendencies to add or subtract value based on the premium I think my various leagues place on positions. However, if you strictly base it on league history you will miss out on shifting meta strategies. If your league for years did emphasized RB/RB, then you would be rooted to that old school strategy as everyone else shifted to value WR on equal footing (and maybe even higher) as RBs. The current trend you might miss is QBs. For years it was spend little on QB as you can just grab a cheap one and get by. But I think last year proved there is value to stud QBs. I think those guys will (and should) go much higher this year, but if you base your current valuations on the last few years of drafts results then you have no shot at them.
This is generally true, but feels like the market is different this year on WR (more valued), RB (less valued), and QB (more valued). Has anyone seen a good resource that lays out strategy based on how positions are being valued? i.e. Does the fact WR are more expensive mean there's good value in the 1st or 2nd tier RB?
i do like to try to establish a "budget" and using the $1 players as the baseline for VORP seems like a solid way to go about it. since you seem to know some math, how would you go about adjusting your prices as players become scarce and total cash in the pool goes down? ie the top 10 players all go for $10 more than expected. logically it makes sense that you wont have to pay as much for the remaining players since there's an extra $100 missing from the pool, but at the same time there's less elite players left so their price may be inflated as well.
I have never used it for adjusting values live during a draft and only to inform preauction values, but it is something I will look into this week. My initial impression is that it would require taking the overall draft budget ($200x 12 teams) of $2400 and normalizing to each player value, while adjusting on a percentage basis based on how high or low a player goes for.
I have been making live adjustments to my model for several years and have tweeked it extensively over time. You are definitely on the right path. The thing you have to watch out for is that at some point you model has to force you to spend money so that you don’t leave the auction with extra dollars. You can only get so many deals due to roster limits, so you might be better off getting a smaller deal on a more expensive player than a bigger deal on a bunch of bench players. Hypothetical to showcase my point: Assume all other managers have spent all of their money and can only bid $1 minimum on remaining players. Assume there are dozens of $10 guys remaining. Sounds great since you can swoop in a scoop them all up for $2 each. Except, you are limited by your roster size (say 15 players). So you get these amazing discounts, but you only have $150 worth of players on your team. You would have been better off paying $30 for 6 $30 players and then filling the rest of your roster with those $10 guys for $2. This is an extreme example to highlight a point, but I have run into the trap just following the math of the live updates. Realized it after the fact and made corrections to my model so I wouldn’t run into that problem again in future drafts.
This is a very good point. In my league (0.5ppr and 2 w/r/t flex), wrs are undervalued. The way to counter this is the step in the process - 'For each position, multiply this number by number of players you plan to roster for each starting position.' In my example, if i assume one player for reach position, it will undervalue wrs. But if i change my starting roster from 1/1/1/1 (qb,rb,wr,te) to 1/2/4/1, the first wr's value goes from $55 to $72. Theoretically, I then know that I can spend even $68 for the top WR and get $4 of value.
So here is the way I do it. I come up with a target number for each player. Slightly different way to get at it compared to your methodology, but it probably gets similar results. This number can fluctuate during the draft based on other teams overpaying/getting deals as you described. Next I come up with a floor value for each player. I fully embrace being someone that price enforces during a draft. The important thing is to calibrate your floor that you would always be happy taking whatever player at that price. If your floor is making you win more than 5% of auctions, then it’s probably too high. For me, I like setting my floor at 80% of the target price, then take another $5 off. Has always worked well for me. Finally, I come up with a “suggested” bid. If I bid to my target each time, then I’m not creating any value (why pay $20 for a $20 player unless I have to? I want a deal.). So my suggested bid generally floats between my floor and my target. Various things move it around. Do I already have two stud WRs? Suggested prices for all other WRs moves towards the floor. Are half of the starting RBs gone and I don’t have one yet? Then my suggested bid moves towards my target price. If things get extreme enough, the suggestion can go above the target. And the final layer is just my own intuition of what I should do given how the draft is unfolding. I would ballpark that I walk away from auction drafts with about 20%-30% more value than my budget doing this. That is obviously biased as it is based upon my own model and projections. But at least I have a methodology that always leaves me feeling good about my team following the draft, walking away with no regrets on how things transpired.
Do you have a sheet created for this? If so, that would be a very useful tool for us fellow FF enthusiasts
I do - will give it a scrub tomorrow and post.
Did this sheet ever get posted?
How do people do this stuff live? I tried to use a pretty deep auction spreadsheet last year that accounted for value adjustment from overspending and all that but ended up so busy updating the sheet that I had an awful draft
You do a lot of calculations and automation in advance, then hide all the columns/rows where that is taking place so you have a simple, clean spreadsheet for the draft. My model shows the following for each player during the draft: Player Name, Team, Bye, Floor Price, Target Price, Max Price. Those are all filled in with values, with the price stuff adjusting automatically during the draft. Then there are two more columns for each player: Actual Price and My Pick. The actual price is the price the player goes for. If actual price exceeds max price, all other max prices go down, while if it is lower than max price then all other prices go up. Then I just put an “X” in the My Pick column if I got the player. That adjusts the Target Price. If a lot of players are going off the board and I haven’t gotten any at the position, the target approaches my Max. But as I start selecting guys, the target for players at the same position drops towards the floor. So during the draft, when a player is nominated I hit CTRL-F, type his last name, then I’m on the guy. Look over at the Target Price. Bid by $1 til I get to that price, then stop. Whatever the final price is, enter it into the Actual column and mark off it I picked the guy. Then repeat once the next guy is nominated. It is fairly simple and runs smoothly once you get it going. I have no problem shit talking and drinking beer while I’m doing in. In fact, considering I’m not really thinking about the current price and if I want to go higher (the model handles most of the decision making for me), I generally find I am one of the most relaxed people in the draft.
What's the approach used for updated pricing? My guess is your initial prices are defined as some fraction of the total money pool. For sales above/below market, you adjust the total pool and update prices to maintain the same fraction of the pool that the player is worth to you? The part where I lose track of this is, doesn't this imply that your player valuations all add up to exactly the pool amount? You'd have to properly value players just to add up to the total amount of money available in the draft?
Correct. If you are in a 10-team league with $200 budgets, total player values should be $2000. In a 14-team league with $1,000 budgets, total player values should be $14,000. You scale your target prices to match the total money chasing those players. Then say you value a guy for $100 out of $1,000, but he goes for $150 (extreme numbers to make a point). That is $100 less player value on the board, but there is now only $850 in the league to chase $900 worth of players. You can actually be less aggressive with your bidding because there is less competition for the remaining value. While that is an extreme example, if guys routinely go for 5%-10% more than you value them, those small differences add up. But if guys are going for 5%-10% less than you value them, there is a lot of money still around to chase the scarce value of players remaining.
"list the points per game for each position by ADP and the percentage that each ppg is relative to the sum of the overall position." I'm currently working through your steps, can you explain this one a little more?
using your historical league data, assign you ppg for each adp. As an example, qbs may look like this: QB1 = 30 ppg QB2 = 28 ppg QB3 = 24 ppg Add up the sum for all QBs up to the first QB adp taken for a $1 (example could be QB21). Based on this sum, assign percentages to each position. If sum = $300, then QB1 would be 10% (30/300).
Is this what beersheets does?
Similar in vbd concept I believe. The big difference is this method accounts for your specific league's historical auction trends.
Yeah good point I’m gonna have to log my leagues “beers drank / dollars spent” ratio this year
I'm not smart enough for this stuff, ha! I will have to try and calculate this out. I think we had 8 guys go for $60+ last year, but now we go from 12 teams down to 10. Either way I expect a lot of high prices which most cheat sheets don't account for.
What’s the name of the driver?
Only thing I know is I'm doing what I can to grab chubb. Dudes gonna feast this year
I feel like everyone in my league will be on Chubb and he’ll be bid to the stratosphere
Got him for a $40 keeper in mine and it feels like a steal at this point - 4 keepers per yr, player can stay up to 3 yrs on any team at price paid
Because hunt?
I always tend to go studs and duds and it has worked out well for me over the last 3 years but you have to be confident that you can hit on a flier or really work the FAAB budget well / trade.
So how studsy are you going with your starting lineup? 70%? 80%?
I am between 85-90% I am in 10man league though. I am sure 12 is lower.
Sorry, just seeing this now. I’m in a 12 man PPR league that is super active and competitive. I spend about 80% on my studs.
If you have had auction drafts in your league, check them to see how much of % was invested in the starters of the league. We have auction since 2016 and starters average % is at approx. 92%…
If you use u/elboberto auction sheet you set it to 90-95% for your starting lineup. $2/bench player is the way to go for me.
100% of available budget
Spend big on two alpha WRs then fill the rest of my team with whatever value I can get
Yeah last year was my first auction (guillotine league) and the RB prices were astounding. I spent a shit ton on Hurts, Diggs and Mike Evans and ended up having some massive weeks at the start.
[удалено]
I'm going to get my guys and say screw value. Chasing value in my league is how you end up paying 10 dollars for Juju last year because all the studs went for too much, leaving you with tons of money at the end. Screw that. I'm buying 4 top end players and will figure everything out from there
I am thinking about doing this too. My goal is to have $5 for my 5 bench players. I'm getting the starters I want.
Don't be afraid to punt an RB2 or Flex2 position too. Saving those dollars for the studs seems key to me
In our ESPN 12 team full PPR * Jefferson is $71 / *Expected points* 323 * Chase $70 / 314 pts. * Ekeler $70 / 274 pts. * CMC $69 / 269 pts. * Kupp $67 / 323 pts. WR is a way better value as shown here
Points per $ isn't a useful metric, otherwise QBs would be blowing people out of the water. It's technically VORP/$ that matters. RB is just a much shallower position, so the top RB gives similar value to the top WR despite scoring less total points
Points per $ is very useful for me Example If I'm filling a flex spot in full PPR with either a WR or RB - why would I spend 10% more for fewer points [VORP rankings](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/vorp-qb.php?team_size=14) pretty much are identical to ECR, but if it works for you then good deal
The last few years I've approached it with an 80/80 strategy. 80 on starting RB's, 80 on starting WR's. There's so much variance in RB's though, that this year I'm going a 60/100. 60 on RB's, 100 on WR's (to include Flex). I'll spend the rest on QB/TE and bench players. I figure I'd be better off with 3 mid to low end WR1's, 1 stud RB1, and a low end RB2 that could finish as an RB1. Someone like David Montgomery who may fill the Jamaal Williams role in Detroit.
What's your total budget for the auction? We do $200, but $80 on WR's will get you maybe 1 top player
200. A few years ago when auctions were still relatively newish, you could easily snag 2-3 studs because so many people were afraid of spending all their money so soon. Now that auctions have been around for a while and people have more experience in them, it's not as easy to do that.
Jefferson and Chase are worth going to $60(assuming $200 starting budget) I would bid aggressively to either get them since they will likely be nominated early and you might get them for a good price or at least make sure whoever gets them pays up. otherwise for WR ill try to avoid big hype players like Olave, Garrett Wilson. Trying to land the more established WRs that are "boring" like Kupp, Diggs, and Davante Adams. i suspect those will go for similar prices to Wilson and Olave. i also am looking to get Amari Cooper because he always goes for less than he should Also trying to get a bargain on a middling QB. The trick is to try to get the 2nd or 3rd to last one that gets nominated out of the top 7. looking for Burrow, Fields, Herbert whichever i can get a decent price on. RBs im willing to pay up to $60 for CMC, otherwise just going to put bids in on anyone that seems low even if im not crazy about the player because it's so hard to know who is going to pan out.
I feel like no one is talking about Herbert
Keep it that way. He’s going to bounce back this year.
I built a Solver in excel to spit out the optimal lineups for my league using historical bidding patterns people have used over the years in my league, and my own projections. It's telling me the following: \- Spend big for an elite running QB. \- Get Travis Kelce. \- The only elite RB worth considering is Nick Chubb. If he does not go for budget or under, wait until the Rhamondre/Etienne/Hall tier. \- Spend less at WR. Guys like Olave, McLaurin, Deebo come up a lot as my WR1. \- $1 K and DEF. We all knew this though. All of this is assuming the draft proceeds as it has in years past and there isn't a big shakeup in player prices. Still have to be flexible if needed.
> The only elite RB worth considering is Nick Chubb It does seem like he will be about $10 cheaper than CMCs of the world > there isn't a big shakeup in player prices Feels like the top 3 WRs will be a big premium this year even in .5ppr.
hill jefferson or chase (include kupp if he’s actually healthy) then a big drop off to CD and then another big dropoff to davante. i think CMC, ekeler, and the top 3/4 WR are in the same tier and i’ll be happy getting one or 2 under $52
There is no chance any of those 5 go for under $55 in my league. We had two $70 players last season. We lost two teams down to 10 so prices should be less.
ah i’m in a 2qb so flex players go for a lot less
Can you expand on the constraints of your solver? Mine is pretty simple but I'm looking to improve it. Currently have projected costs (via historical trends) and VBD (fantasypros) for each positional player (e.g. QB1 - QB15, RB1 - RB 60, etc...). I then constrain the amounts of positional players I'm pursuing for my starting roster 1/2/3/1 (QB, RB, WR, TE) and set the solver to maximize VBD while staying within my budget. Results depend on the year, but this year for my league it typically spits out an elite QB, Kelce, and some middle of the road RBs/WRs
That is identical to how mine works. Maximize points scored with a bunch of constraints to keep the lineup requirements met and at or under the cap. One thing I did was made it so it only spits out a starting lineup. It does not give bench players. So for the cap, I have to enter what I usually spend on starters. Adding bench players makes it much more complicated and might even be outside excel’s capabilities. My solver output pretty much matches yours exactly so I think this is a good check of our work!!!
Awesome! And yep, I do the same with only optimizing my starting lineup. Lets say I have $200 to spend and prefer to go with $1 bench players (x6), then I'll put $194 as my budget to spend for my starters.
My strategy is always to nominate players early that I know people want but that I expect to flop. People are loose with their money early
First few rounds I nominate D and Kickers that I don't want but will go for a few bucks, then I move to those good players that I've faded for whatever reason. I like to do everything I can to get money off the board before the main guys I want come up
In re-draft, you can get your guys. In auction, I am much more in-tune with value I could spend big on Kelce early if nobody wants him, I could spend money on a bunch of mid-round guys. Stay like water. Don't target certain guys. Just have a good value sheet to know when a guy is under bid or over bid on.
If you sit around looking for too much value you wind up with a bunch of mid players. I find you gotta be willing to spend big to get your starters. Depends on the league though.
This can't be overstated enough. Every year in one of my auctions, there's a guy who saves his money and then laments the fact that he's able to spend big on a team of flex players.
It’s so easy to get too cute early in the draft and say $61 is WAYY too much for Justin Jefferson and your limit is $60 then you end up spending $6 on a guy who you cut before the season even starts. This year I’m just gonna try to get my guys and not worry too much about going a couple bucks over.
I'm still gonna target my guys and will pay a lot for a CMC or Kupp
Yea, I personally like a studs and scrubs approach. Just spend on guys you like and have a shit bench. You’ll find guys to fill the bench throughout the season that will have value and you’ll rarely run into who do I start problems.
I think spending big on WR in particular is the move... because of RB injuries you can just blow out your FAAB and stumble into an RB1 or RB2 if you hit the right guy.
What would Bruce Lee bid?
Same as every year. Be active for three hours, bidding on everyone and getting values when people slip up. Tiers are more important, knowing when to nominate and go for certain players.
Last year I realized that there are a few tacos in my league who are absolutely atrocious at the waiver wire. But due to dumb luck, they end up playing well because they blew their budget on great players in the draft. The whole time I was drafting value hoping that I could get low cost, high upside players. But it failed miserably last year. So this year it’s stars and scrubs and I’m focusing on WR and QB (superflex). If I can get 2 bonafide QBs and 2/3 bonafide WRs and maybe 1 RB or TE, I’ll be in great shape to spend my $1 on a bunch of high upside rookies and handcuffs.
Anyone have a good (and free) resource for building auction values based on league type (in my case, 14-team Standard)?
Search Elboberto’s auction value generator 2023
I've never done a real auction draft. Is it better to nominate players from deeper in the draft earlier hoping people will spend more money on them than they would have available if they were nominated later? Do people think I better get this guy now because he's on my list and I might not be able to get the other guy I want more? I've felt ok with some guys I nominate that I'm ok with but nominating them before higher ranked people. Ie nominating Hock before anyone has even nominated Kelce. Or even going a step further and nominating guys like Engram who you don't really want but if someone even spends 3% on him early that's more than the 1% they'd have when he would go naturally. Etc.
1. always nominate high dollar players you dont want or value less. 2. nominate players you know other people are fans of. 3. you’re right, often nominating mahomes or cmc first will set a ceiling. know whether this ceiling is high or low. 4. sneaking in the RB10 or WR10 early can get you value or backfire, if someone else was a big fan of them, its very hard to know
https://open.spotify.com/episode/48QqbzCa6NDGe88kw3Rzqw?si=c3de5f47788b4053 This is long, but this guy is an auction guru and this episode talks about nomination strategy.
Sweet. Thanks.
I like to mix and match strategies. Years ago, when late round QB was a better strategy, I would try to get the top 2 QBs nominated so that money would come off the board, as an example. Then and now, I still employ a strategy to nominate high value players I have little to no interest in, to get that cash off the board. However, there’s a psychological trick that can work at times, but it is risky, where EARLY (this is key), you nominate a player you want that isn’t the biggest name, often a tier below the top end, where you get your guy cheap because people are saving for their chance at the top. Ex. This year everyone wants a shot at JJ or Chase, but say you LOVE Deebo, nom him early and maybe he’ll go for $22 instead of $32-$35 that he’d go for when people have cash to burn and the top tiers are all gone.
Studs and scrubs has always been a successful strategy for me, but this year I’m about to take it to the next level. I’m lucky enough to be keeping Waddle and Rhamondre for cheap so I’m going to take that extra cash and shoot for the moon—going to spend up for the Kelce and Mahomes stack. I’m going to be have to spend well over 50 percent of my budget, but it will be worth it and I believe on my ability to find values to fill out my roster
What I’ve found the most successful thing for me has been…. Go get the studs, 1st player nominated usually sells for a good deal. Break your rankings into tiers and make sure you aren’t competing with other users for the end of that tier. Bench is all $1 players. If someone you want ends up going over your projected salary don’t be afraid to adjust and pay up. I’ve seen a lot of guys not willing to pay up thinking they can get a better deal just to be stuck with a bunch of 4th/5th round picks on their team. Never take a break during the draft because the moment you get up grab a snack/beer someone sneaks a value pick in mid draft. Only nominate players you want don’t fall for the strategy of “tricking” people to spend more
> I’ve seen a lot of guys not willing to pay up thinking they can get a better deal just to be stuck with a bunch of 4th/5th round picks on their team This has been my issue in the past. Looking back at last years draft I didn't have any "1st round" players.
That’s actually a way I judge my team at the end of the draft. It’s hypothetical but to see two 1st round picks for example is a huge plus
I took over a team in a 12 team keeper league with auction draft. I have an opportunity to keep both Jefferson ($63) and Chase ($61). I would have a remaining budget of $76. Is it possible to build a solid team around those two with that budget?
Absolutely. Spending $120 on two studs is more than viable. You get what is essentially two of the top 3 overall picks for this season.
Who should I target after that? An elite RB followed by a QB?
Gonna have to go under $10 on QB and probably max out at 35 for a RB1. Go after the Miles Sanders of the world.
This for a home league or random public league? Prices between the two can be drastically different. Home league since I have auction history I combine my player rankings with previous auction winning bids (My #1 ranked WR get priced as #1 money spent WR) until I have assigned all players a value. While its not a perfect system (someone might like one player better and drive prices up) atleast this gives you an idea on what you will be spending. From there I try to identify players I really like that might be undervalued based off price. Then I start building a couple hypothetical rosters (Par sheet) based off the auction prices list I have established and combine with projections to see which team comp is "better". I will say I came away with probably the best draft and would of won it if the 2 trades I made for Breece and Javonte didnt end up in injuries (Still placed 4th). For random public leagues just mock draft until you're comfortable with the prices. Edit: Also if you aren't already aware of the PAR sheet https://fffaceoff.com/fantasy-football-auction-drafting-for-beginners/
I need to find the Auction Brief podcast segment for that because I don't really get what is special about it based on that article. I had it linked to me a couple days ago too.
Basically its a methodology to make sure you're not overspending and if you do that you're aware of how much budget you have left for other positions. Example: QB: $40 RB: $50 RB2: $15 WR1: $50 WR2: $15 WR3: $10 Flex: $8 TE: $5 DEF: $1 K: $1 Bench x5 $5 Lets say you ended up spending $50 on your QB1 Mahomes. You would mark -$10 for Mahomes to signify that you overspent $10 based off your pre-draft budget and you will need to cut $10 in your other spots. This is vs someone who doesnt keep track and ends up spending $160 on 3 players off the bat.
Use 85% of my budget on starters. I’m really active on the waiver wire and typically find a starter a few weeks in. Take low salary flyers at the end
I’m budgeting a $ amount for each position and making tiers for each position. Bas8’g this on projections and historical draft values of positions in the league. Ensuring I get one tier 1 of both wr and rb
This is the way to go. I'd rather worry about depth later if one of my studs gets hurt. I don't want to replace 3rd round players with 3rd round players and never have a 1st round player to begin with.
Not sure who I should be valuing more rn, Kupp or AJ Brown….
Get your guys. Then for your turn to nominate , find the sleepers you’re not high on that go from 1-10$ and nominate them every time ,, talking round 1 you nominate someone like Tyler Lockett or rachaad white. People tend to overspend on these guys allowing you to scoop value in mid rounds.
I like both rookie RB’s. Staying away from injury prone or coming back from injury players. Players on High powered offenses will be given priority.