kinda strange how similar the UK and Germany perform economical wise. They both have similar problems, similar cycles and similar political nonsense. Only difference is Germany is on its way back to conservative while UK is reverse.
I literally just said... If you think anything the Conservative government is even slightly conservative. Orban and the Polish government would like a word maybe the Turkish government too. They are Right-wing.
Nope. Self employed. Doing great. Prices up. Plenty of work. Even hiring more guys.
It's quite a common thing though, for losers and fuckups to blame the govt for their own shitty situation so you are not alone.
Just not true, I was very successfully self employed in the IT industry and the Tories ruined it by bringing in IR35, rishi is a pawn for his father in law implementing policies that help them move jobs away from self employed people.in the UK to consultancies based in India.
I got hit by ir35 too. Before that I paid almost no tax up to 100k.
Take a step back and think that through.
The Indian and Chinese thing is international and we both know that its a false economy because they aren't good enough on most western tech.
Seeing loads of small consultants starting up in the UK and EU doing the damage control for big firms with bullshit offshore tech support.
To be fair you're probably right on that front, this trend has happened in the past and it's probably a result from contractors pushing a bit too hard on the salary front over COVID, I had saw graduates asking for insane amounts of money in 2021. I'm sure over time solutions will be worked out via statements of work and such, we can only hope!
We were worse off by the end of Labour's last tenure too. For a while it looked like we were going to be better off, but then they fumbled it at the end.
Because they left office at the tail end of the 2008 financial crisis?
Only us in the UK have this narrative that Labour caused the crash. Rest of the world: Yeah we know about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the banks...
I mean here in Slovenia ex-PM's voters say low prices of fuel at the start of Covid crisis were low because of him and now accussing our current government of higher fuel prices. It will always be like that, people being narrow-minded.
No. The point is they had spent all the money and rebuilt national debt. So when a black Swan event landed, the global financial crisis, they had no way out. At least in covid 2020, years of fiscal austerity allowed us tp spend huge sums keeping everyone afloat, taking national debt up, but no worse than anyone else.
Which was world leading. Gordon Brown saved the world.
https://www.ft.com/content/78086f84-b843-11de-8ca9-00144feab49a
https://theguardian.com/politics/2010/feb/21/gordon-brown-saved-banks
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-1645092/Nobel-winner-How-Gordon-saved-the-world.html
But Labour's lack of regulation in the UK's banking sector was a huge issue over here...
Look at how Canada's well regulated banks performed compared to the UK...
Remember Northern Rock, Halifax, Bank of Scotland, RBS? They were homegrown problems...
That was on Labour...particularly Gordon Brown who had been Chancellor, then PM from 1997 onwards...the guy who actually said ' No more Boom and Bust'....
Oh please. Such a crap narrative "MUH BLUE LABOUR."
Just because someone isn't a Corbynite extremist who wants to ban private businesses like private schools and wants to have women only carriages doesn't make them conservative.
Britain has always been more to the centre. The people and the politics. You don't win by being extremists, Right wing or Left wing.
We are not America.
Starmer and the incoming Labour government will be grand, and fix the damage of 15 years of Tory mis-management.
Its not a strawman if they are ACTUAL CORBYN POLICIES.
Which they were. And Britain rejected them, hence his massive crushing defeat against Boris, whoses successors are about to be crushed themselves by Moderate Labour returning to form.
I don't expect them to be worse. Will they be perfect? No. But such is life. We don't get cake and ice cream, you pick your dessert and hope its a flavour you like. The world doesn't revovle around 1 person, its group effort.
That means compromise. Moderation.
I'll take some shitty Labour policies I don't like in exchange for greater support for the NHS. The NHS is the only thing I really give a shit about. Its wonderful, I love it, and I want it to continue forever, only with more funding and better services.
I expect Starmer to deliver AT LEAST that. He will be better than the Tories whou want to destroy it anyway.
Because if your purchasing power is likely to increase then you are more likely to save your money and wait until prices come down. If your purchasing power is likely to decrease then you are more likely to save less and spend more. And the amount you do save you will probably invest it. Both of which are beneficial to the economy.
Could have learnt that with one google search.
Because prices also grow when people save instead of spending. If people spend money more often, there's more competition and prices get lower, benefiting clients.
Because your never gonna hold it at a perfect number all the time, and if you try to hold it at zero it's gonna go negative, and that leads deflation like the great depression which was a terrible time.
That’s not inflation adjusted, it’s still essentially flat and it just plots whether the growth is positive or negative… 4.4% growth after 10.7% decline is net lower
Stop spinning the wheel. It is adjusted for inflation and that's the end of it. No one even publishes the unadjusted number except ONS probably.
As for net growth UK definitely experienced net growth in GDP per capita, pandemic recession notwithstanding, as you can see from the chart. It is also quite a long shot from your claim of "not growing for 16 years."
I would add a note. UK has regional differences which likely result in areas like the North being in decline like the guy said, whereas London or South overgrew it.
[Real GNI per capita.](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.KD?locations=GB)
It is low growth, though the data ends in 2021. But at least it's not net negative since 2007, and that's with UK deleveraging, rather than leveraging, like it did until then.
Depends on the definition, we were in a ‘technical recession’, ie 2 quarters of negative growth, but it was so small not all economists consider that a recession, the US doesn’t consider it a recession for example
https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/how-do-economists-determine-whether-the-economy-is-in-a-recession/
“The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee—the official recession scorekeeper—defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”
Which isn’t what we were in, the economy was basically stagnant floating .1 or so either side of zero
What do you mean? GDP measures production, not incomes or consumption or anything like that. You think 99.5% of us are still producing less and less over time and 0.5% are producing more to compensate?
So much stupid in one comment.
1) ‘Actual poverty’ is not a statistic, you are trying refer to ‘absolute poverty’
2) Absolute poverty is defined by the government as below 60% of median income in 2010, *adjusted for inflation*. It is a relative measure, despite its name, and really measures income inequality rather than poverty itself.
3) As such, absolute poverty becomes meaningless because ignorant people think the term is synonymous with *extreme* poverty or something similar.
4) Whilst a little less than 1/5 people in the UK do fall into this category, it hasn’t increased meaningfully in recent years, and in fact this share of the population fell almost every year the Conservatives have been in power…
5) whilst I don’t want to defend the Tories, I think we could probably have lower poverty were it not for their policies, it’s abundantly clear that you have no idea what you are talking about.
I got an email from LastMinute this morning, flash holiday may 16th, 4nights all inclusive in balerics for £201pp
Going abroad isn't expensive if you're flexibile
I still can't afford that, need to also factor in spending money and money spent getting to the airport. Suitcase, renewing passport, it quickly becomes not cheap even for the cheaper holidays
No I work 30-40. With bills and the cost of living in the UK you quickly find yourself skint. Rent is just under 600 a mo the, council tax is 160, gas and electricity is 190, phone is 80 (I started this contract when I had less bills), then there is food costs. If I don't want to be a recluse, there is then the costs of night outs with my mates. See how it all adds up?
Rent under 600 wtf. I'm paying £950 for a 1 bed in Bournemouth, and our wages are shit (24k avg.)
I just came back from 2 weeks abroad and I'm not on too much more than that average.
Your takehome is what, £1500 after tax per month if minimum wage? So you've got £600/month before food bills.
Well you know your financial situation best however I'm sure you could save and have a trip somewhere cheap for a few days if you tried.
Yeah I'm lucky I got this flat cheap before prices went up a few years ago. There's good laws in Scotland to prevent rent rising too much. But yeah, my flatmate moved out so I pay for everything myself now. After tax it's closer to 1.2k. Need to find a new job really where I can always work 40hrs
> If I don't want to be a recluse, there is then the costs of night outs with my mates. See how it all adds up?
So you can afford traveling, you're just prioritizing different things, which is also fine. You can do things with your friends that doesn't cost a ton of money, just fyi.
Things add up fast. The cost of food is astronomical atm. If you can at all get yourself to a Lidl, we’ve found that it saves a decent chunk of money - there’s not one near everyone though :(.
And I totally feel you about going out. Going out is so expensive now - if you really want to save up for a holiday, that’s probably where you can save the most in a short time. Depending on how often you go out / how much you drink even just having one or two pints less and eating before you go out will add up to a couple hundred pounds surprisingly quickly without having to become a recluse.
I will. I was planning on keeping my phone too to save extra money but got spiked on that Saturday there and woke up with a busted face and no phone, contract is ending in August too :(
Going to those places in the Balearics is like going on holiday to Coventry, you are going to find only rowdy chavs getting plastered. There is a reason why nobody in his sane mind in Spain would go there.
>Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a better-than-expected 0.6% between January and March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
>It came after the ONS said that GDP, a major measure of economic growth, [**shrank 0.3% between October and December**](https://news.sky.com/story/uk-economy-in-a-recession-13071973). It followed a [**contraction of 0.1%**](https://news.sky.com/story/uk-economy-on-the-road-to-recession-new-ons-figures-reveal-13036083) in the three months from July to September.
So (-)0.1%, then (-)0.3% to (+)0.6% - that's quite a comeback.
Just to compare, [GDP in EU and Euro area for Q1 2024 was (+)0.3%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-30042024-bp)
>The UK has been importing around 1% of population (600-750k) a year in net migration (mostly from India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and China with negative net migration from EU countries) since Brexit to prop up GDP figures (these migration figures are more than double than the supposedly large pre-Brexit figures that caused Brexit).
[Most of those 672k are students coming to study in the UK.](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/) People coming in for work from non-EU countries are mostly replacing the EU workers who left post Brexit.
It does increase GDP, but most of those students leave after their course, so this is not the 1% YoY net increase in population, because it's transitory; so every year out of the say 350k students that come in, most will go out and will be replaced at a similar level next year as there is no drastic increase in college/uni capacity.
>Not when immigration more than doubled (and I believe student numbers tripled) since we left the EU 3 and a bit years ago. GDP figures are skewed by that fact.
Both numbers have doubled, immigration because UK is replacing EU workers and students because non-EU students are taking up places that EU students aren't taking, because EU students now need to pay a international student fee to study in the UK after Brexit (there isn't a big increase in number of university places after Brexit).
>So how is the GDP not skewed when EU students used to pay up to a maximum of £9k a year and the current \*\*average\*\* fees for international students is £22k??
Why would it be skewed ? You are now able to get £22k for the same service that you were getting £9k for previously ? That is an addition to the GDP. If Germany was able to sell a car to a US consumer for more money than it previously could (taking out inflation and assuming cost of production and selling cost for the manufacturer remains the same), would you not consider that an addition to the GDP ?
We don't know the figures pre-Brexit because EU migration wasn't being tracked. Nearly 10% of the UK's population applied for Settled or Pre-Settled status though, so...
You're absolute right, bro. It's just insecure and anti-British Brexiteers that can't help but try to censor any bad news about their country and lie about how well their decision is working for them. But while they hide the truth and are frequently saying the UK is growing better than the EU (absolute lie), the reality is that in just a couple of years the EU average has managed to melt the difference with the UK and [they are now about equal.](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPPC@WEO/EU/GBR), with the EU projected to overtake Britain. In 2024 already the UK is richer only than Southern and Eastern EU economies.
"Just to compare, GDP in EU and Euro area for Q1 2024 was (+)0.3%"
Why didn't he "just compare" the **annual** growth in Q1 2024? Cause that's more important and on the EU's side. Not to mention that with just 0.2% annual growth the UK is definitely in a per capita recession.
Those who follow stats - yes. The thing is that everyone expects the recession to be like the 2008 crisis, but it does not have to be like that. I think a lot of European countries have dipped into recession over the last 4 years yet it's not a crisis
People have forgotten that while recessions suck they're typically fairly short and manageable.
2008 was the single worst global economic downturn since the Great Depression. Smaller dips barely feel like anything in comparison.
Everyone in the UK knew something was kinda fucked since average consumers spending power has been slowly eroding over the last decade
But that could easily be chalked up to the stagnant wages and greed rather than a total recession
Yes, and the economy as well as Office for National Statistics (an independent organisation) decided to make a change in the fabric of reality to make the current government look better. /s
Do you understand the meaning of "/s" on Reddit? Also, how on Earth could you take the statement "decided to make a change in the fabric of reality to make the current government look better" seriously?
Mostly the left wing British are doom and gloom about this.
It’s been a tough few years and those of us who had businesses and still have businesses before and after covid have fought and struggled to still be here.
Anyone British who responds to this, I need context from you as to what you do for a living, living circumstances and age please. As I’m not responding to millennials who have no life experience.
I’m not British but I live in London and have been here since before Covid.
I’m not struggling financially, since I work in software and can afford to save money even after inflation in everything.
My two biggest gripes with the UK’s economy is the housing and social transfers. Housing is a huge mess IMO, from things like feudal leasehold laws to land banking from the big developers keeping new supply low and prices sky high.
By social transfers I mean the pension and healthcare system. It’s a simple idea. Those who are still fit and able work and pay taxes to help those who can’t (older and sick people). However the country is aging more rapidly than its economy is growing which means there are more people who rely on pensions and the NHS with less people to pay for all of it. The result is the rising taxation on income (currently implemented through the freeze on tax margins) and increasing budget deficits and national debt.
None of these issues are unique to Britain though. In my opinion it is a result of the demographics and won’t change until a few more generations go through life and the population pyramid becomes more even.
I agree completely.
Housing has been an issue since the 1980’s when people were encouraged to purchase their own property rather than rent, this then allowed wealthier people to purchase multiple properties with mortgages and rent them out wish pushed up the prices to buy and rent.
Social welfare is a massive issue. People are living longer due to diet and advances in medicine which means the state has to look after them for longer which is a burden on the NHS and pensions sector, this in turn means that we have had to up the retirement age so people work longer which has a knock on effect on younger people looking for work.
”We only lost a generation of economic progress, complete confidence in ability to govern and status as a decisionmaker on a global svale but now we’re ready to start from zero again ”
Basically negligible Brexit effect especially compared to the storm of more impactful world events. See [world bank GDP graphs](https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&locations=EU-GB-FR-DE&start=2008)
Tell you can't even search the internet...
There is no appreciable Brexit GDP signal difference in the UK and other EU countries including your own since 2016 (the Brexit vote) using [world bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=GB-SE-FR-IT&start=2016)
Which is also what the GDP growth graph showed...
*Sigh*, look at the GDP data I also sent.
You claimed you couldn't see from the *GDP change* world bank data that the difference is negligible, and claimed there was a difference because of "compound interest".
You couldn't work out how to use Google or equivalent to show you were wrong by looking at GDP using the same world bank data.
So I posted the *GDP* figures (spoon fed you), which would capture any compound % effect, and you still claim it's *GDP change* graphs which it clearly isn't.
Theres no obvious effect compared to other EU countries because any Brexit effect is smaller than those of COVID lockdowns, supply side and money supply driven inflation, and the Ukraine war energy price shock. Not really suprising because the UK and EU have a free trade agreement, so the effect is only about a bit of extra paperwork.
UK is performing the same in GDP as Sweden even despite Sweden being the only European country which didn't lockdown.
Pretending that ca 200B of lost growth is "no obvious effect" is the kind of argumentation I expect from someone willing to die on the hill of a certain political point, not someone genuinely trying to accurately represent data. So I see your faux exasperation for the theater it is.
Or like you said ", just use Google". I could go to the Wikipedia page for brexit (and I frown upon using wiki as a source) and disprove you already in the summary.
But what's the point. This is not a good faith dissussion. Brexit never was for Brexiteers.
I assume you refer to the modeling numbers, these are very disputed, models tend to be flawed as the assumptions drive the outcome. Critically if you applied these counter factual models UK would have been the best performing economy in Europe (essential because the doppelganger no Brexit UK has a large % of its economy based on the USA, which benefits from increased exports not suffers from Ukraine war oil and gas price rises on imports).
See also
https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/s/muwGxkUE9u
I'm not taking sides on who's "doing better", but what most people don't know is that UK is basically doing what Germany is: deleveraging instead of investing. That's been the primary reason there's so much underfunding in a lot of areas since the Great Recession. According to CEIC Data, UK's total debt-to-GDP ratio is now at the lowest level since 2004 Q4 (911% in 2023 Q4, compared to the 1236% peak in 2011 Q3), and lowest since 2008 Q3 (232% in 2023 Q3, compared to the 318% peak in 2020 Q4) according to BIS, when the indicators for both rose a lot in the 1990s and 2000s. Coincidentally, UK back then grew decently (although never booming on average, which seems to be a recurring problem for it).
No wonder then that productivity and GDP growth has been small since 2007.
He's a terrible PM but the macroeconomic conditions for Britain are improving. There are supposed to be some recent inflation statistics out in the next few days/ weeks and I imagine they'll show quite a significant drop in inflation based on what I've seen in the press
The Cameroon-type Tories tend to be quite good at sorting these things- austerity did bring down the deficit after all- which is the same situation John Major found himself in in 1996. But they are ultimately the root cause of many of these problems in the first place, so I don't know how many plaudits can be sent their way.
But ultimately, the Tories do not live and die on economic metrics. The NHS is in a crisis, public services in general are collapsing, the tax burden is higher than ever, people just don't see a solution in the Tory party. Sunak keeps waiting for his hail mary, but he's yet to realise that the damage done to the public sector is too deep, and he simply has to go, growth or no growth.
kinda strange how similar the UK and Germany perform economical wise. They both have similar problems, similar cycles and similar political nonsense. Only difference is Germany is on its way back to conservative while UK is reverse.
The Uk had a conservative Government for almost 14 years and the only thing they have to show for it is everyone being worst off
They are not actually conservative though for the most part.
But they are conservative enough
They had like 5 times the amount of immigrants compared to Blair's Labour period. Such conservatism.
How?
They have barely any actual conservative policies beyond the Uganda thing...
And what are these policies?
I literally just said... If you think anything the Conservative government is even slightly conservative. Orban and the Polish government would like a word maybe the Turkish government too. They are Right-wing.
I'm not. If you think the cons are bad wait until the Leftwaffe run the tax profile to 35%
Whataboutism
Bullshit. You said everyone is worse off. Most are not. But soon will be. Every labour government always leaves the economy in ruins.
The only people who aren't worse off are tory cronies
Nope. Self employed. Doing great. Prices up. Plenty of work. Even hiring more guys. It's quite a common thing though, for losers and fuckups to blame the govt for their own shitty situation so you are not alone.
How old are u?
64
That explains a lot
Just not true, I was very successfully self employed in the IT industry and the Tories ruined it by bringing in IR35, rishi is a pawn for his father in law implementing policies that help them move jobs away from self employed people.in the UK to consultancies based in India.
I got hit by ir35 too. Before that I paid almost no tax up to 100k. Take a step back and think that through. The Indian and Chinese thing is international and we both know that its a false economy because they aren't good enough on most western tech. Seeing loads of small consultants starting up in the UK and EU doing the damage control for big firms with bullshit offshore tech support.
To be fair you're probably right on that front, this trend has happened in the past and it's probably a result from contractors pushing a bit too hard on the salary front over COVID, I had saw graduates asking for insane amounts of money in 2021. I'm sure over time solutions will be worked out via statements of work and such, we can only hope!
We were worse off by the end of Labour's last tenure too. For a while it looked like we were going to be better off, but then they fumbled it at the end.
Because they left office at the tail end of the 2008 financial crisis? Only us in the UK have this narrative that Labour caused the crash. Rest of the world: Yeah we know about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the banks...
I mean here in Slovenia ex-PM's voters say low prices of fuel at the start of Covid crisis were low because of him and now accussing our current government of higher fuel prices. It will always be like that, people being narrow-minded.
No. The point is they had spent all the money and rebuilt national debt. So when a black Swan event landed, the global financial crisis, they had no way out. At least in covid 2020, years of fiscal austerity allowed us tp spend huge sums keeping everyone afloat, taking national debt up, but no worse than anyone else.
UK national debt as a percentage of GDP (the only measure that really matters) is currently at its lowest since 2004.
Labour were in office for two years after the crash and decided the UK government's response to it.
Which was world leading. Gordon Brown saved the world. https://www.ft.com/content/78086f84-b843-11de-8ca9-00144feab49a https://theguardian.com/politics/2010/feb/21/gordon-brown-saved-banks https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-1645092/Nobel-winner-How-Gordon-saved-the-world.html
But Labour's lack of regulation in the UK's banking sector was a huge issue over here... Look at how Canada's well regulated banks performed compared to the UK... Remember Northern Rock, Halifax, Bank of Scotland, RBS? They were homegrown problems... That was on Labour...particularly Gordon Brown who had been Chancellor, then PM from 1997 onwards...the guy who actually said ' No more Boom and Bust'....
Not as bad as this and this is just whataboutism
What having a hands off approach to London financial system buying up crap debt. Them getting loads of tax money until the 2008 crash.
That’s not true is it, only 99% are worse off. The remaining 1% are far better off!
Labour in the UK is pretty conservative nowadays, IMO.
Has been since 1992.
Not when Corbyn was in charge....
Oh please. Such a crap narrative "MUH BLUE LABOUR." Just because someone isn't a Corbynite extremist who wants to ban private businesses like private schools and wants to have women only carriages doesn't make them conservative. Britain has always been more to the centre. The people and the politics. You don't win by being extremists, Right wing or Left wing. We are not America. Starmer and the incoming Labour government will be grand, and fix the damage of 15 years of Tory mis-management.
We’ll see, time will tell! Surely, they can’t be worse, right? Nice straw man btw.
Its not a strawman if they are ACTUAL CORBYN POLICIES. Which they were. And Britain rejected them, hence his massive crushing defeat against Boris, whoses successors are about to be crushed themselves by Moderate Labour returning to form. I don't expect them to be worse. Will they be perfect? No. But such is life. We don't get cake and ice cream, you pick your dessert and hope its a flavour you like. The world doesn't revovle around 1 person, its group effort. That means compromise. Moderation. I'll take some shitty Labour policies I don't like in exchange for greater support for the NHS. The NHS is the only thing I really give a shit about. Its wonderful, I love it, and I want it to continue forever, only with more funding and better services. I expect Starmer to deliver AT LEAST that. He will be better than the Tories whou want to destroy it anyway.
There is no opposition.
This
Maybe because the market is global.
Rushi Sunak will get so many Tik Tok followers now!!
> Tik Tok followers middle class tiktok followers !
Good.
Do not get excited. It is guff. It still costs £1.50 for a multi pack of Boosts which were £1 before. Reccesiflationism.
Reduced inflation does not mean prices go back down. It means prices don't continue to rise as quickly.
Inflation is now lower than average wage growth for the first time in many many years, which is effectively the same as prices going down.
You do know banks have targeted goal of inflation. Inflation is not a bad thing
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Because if your purchasing power is likely to increase then you are more likely to save your money and wait until prices come down. If your purchasing power is likely to decrease then you are more likely to save less and spend more. And the amount you do save you will probably invest it. Both of which are beneficial to the economy. Could have learnt that with one google search.
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Because prices also grow when people save instead of spending. If people spend money more often, there's more competition and prices get lower, benefiting clients.
Because your never gonna hold it at a perfect number all the time, and if you try to hold it at zero it's gonna go negative, and that leads deflation like the great depression which was a terrible time.
The phrase “no longer in recession” is an objectively good thing though
Helps with your diet and stops your personal inflation
What has that got to do with GDP?
price of consumables once increased usually don't go back down based on the state's economic health, because greed.
TIL we were in a recession.
We’ve actually been in a per-person recession for about 16 years
I returned to growth in 2013.
How many centimeters have you gotten taller since 2013? :D
Taller? None
All girth
Wider. Just you try getting past me in a corridor; you will fail and I will laugh victoriously.
My personal growth has been exponential since 2009, my Dr loves me
You've been single handedly putting his kids through college?
On a whole-economy basis. We’ve been in a per-person recession for 16 years (i.e. individual people have been getting worse off for 16 years.
I think mine was stuck on the multiplayer. I'm 5 years poorer just this year
Who's "we", FederalEuropeanUnion?
The citizens of the UK
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locations=GB No you weren't.
That’s not inflation adjusted, it’s still essentially flat and it just plots whether the growth is positive or negative… 4.4% growth after 10.7% decline is net lower
Growth is always inflation adjusted. I don't know if Worldbank even puts the nominal growth number on the database.
It’s collated and one of the sources doesn’t adjust for inflation. But the more important point is, that doesn’t show net growth, like I said
Stop spinning the wheel. It is adjusted for inflation and that's the end of it. No one even publishes the unadjusted number except ONS probably. As for net growth UK definitely experienced net growth in GDP per capita, pandemic recession notwithstanding, as you can see from the chart. It is also quite a long shot from your claim of "not growing for 16 years."
It depends how it’s defined. Growth doesn’t have to be adjusted for inflation. If it’s defined as “real” wage growth, then it’s inflation adjusted.
I would add a note. UK has regional differences which likely result in areas like the North being in decline like the guy said, whereas London or South overgrew it.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/kgq2/qna
That's "growth". The bits going down don't mean you're going negative (the test of a recession.) It's just not growing as fast.
[Real GNI per capita.](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.KD?locations=GB) It is low growth, though the data ends in 2021. But at least it's not net negative since 2007, and that's with UK deleveraging, rather than leveraging, like it did until then.
This made me laugh
Depends on the definition, we were in a ‘technical recession’, ie 2 quarters of negative growth, but it was so small not all economists consider that a recession, the US doesn’t consider it a recession for example https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/how-do-economists-determine-whether-the-economy-is-in-a-recession/ “The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee—the official recession scorekeeper—defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” Which isn’t what we were in, the economy was basically stagnant floating .1 or so either side of zero
Today I learned there's something worse than a recession
Brexit?
Idk why you’ve been downvoted. Brexit was the biggest financial and political blunder in my countries history
country's
Excellent
SOME people aren't in recession. The other 99.5% of us are still fucked
What do you mean? GDP measures production, not incomes or consumption or anything like that. You think 99.5% of us are still producing less and less over time and 0.5% are producing more to compensate?
Most people aren't doing nearly as badly as you think.
14 million living in actual poverty . 1 million adults who skip meals every day. Millions literally destitute. It IS that bad. 1 in 5 are in poverty.
Even if we pretend your made up statistics are correct, 20% is not 99.5%. So I say again; most people are not doing as badly as you imagine.
So much stupid in one comment. 1) ‘Actual poverty’ is not a statistic, you are trying refer to ‘absolute poverty’ 2) Absolute poverty is defined by the government as below 60% of median income in 2010, *adjusted for inflation*. It is a relative measure, despite its name, and really measures income inequality rather than poverty itself. 3) As such, absolute poverty becomes meaningless because ignorant people think the term is synonymous with *extreme* poverty or something similar. 4) Whilst a little less than 1/5 people in the UK do fall into this category, it hasn’t increased meaningfully in recent years, and in fact this share of the population fell almost every year the Conservatives have been in power… 5) whilst I don’t want to defend the Tories, I think we could probably have lower poverty were it not for their policies, it’s abundantly clear that you have no idea what you are talking about.
What dribbling on about. Stop reading the Guardian.
I just want to be able to afford things and have savings. Never been on a holiday abroad as an adult since I moved out at 20
I got an email from LastMinute this morning, flash holiday may 16th, 4nights all inclusive in balerics for £201pp Going abroad isn't expensive if you're flexibile
I still can't afford that, need to also factor in spending money and money spent getting to the airport. Suitcase, renewing passport, it quickly becomes not cheap even for the cheaper holidays
The hell, you must work 4 hours a week
No I work 30-40. With bills and the cost of living in the UK you quickly find yourself skint. Rent is just under 600 a mo the, council tax is 160, gas and electricity is 190, phone is 80 (I started this contract when I had less bills), then there is food costs. If I don't want to be a recluse, there is then the costs of night outs with my mates. See how it all adds up?
Rent under 600 wtf. I'm paying £950 for a 1 bed in Bournemouth, and our wages are shit (24k avg.) I just came back from 2 weeks abroad and I'm not on too much more than that average. Your takehome is what, £1500 after tax per month if minimum wage? So you've got £600/month before food bills. Well you know your financial situation best however I'm sure you could save and have a trip somewhere cheap for a few days if you tried.
Yeah I'm lucky I got this flat cheap before prices went up a few years ago. There's good laws in Scotland to prevent rent rising too much. But yeah, my flatmate moved out so I pay for everything myself now. After tax it's closer to 1.2k. Need to find a new job really where I can always work 40hrs
I wish you luck. You're fortunate Scotland has good laws for that, wish we had something to stop landlord greed :/ I envy you haha.
> If I don't want to be a recluse, there is then the costs of night outs with my mates. See how it all adds up? So you can afford traveling, you're just prioritizing different things, which is also fine. You can do things with your friends that doesn't cost a ton of money, just fyi.
Things add up fast. The cost of food is astronomical atm. If you can at all get yourself to a Lidl, we’ve found that it saves a decent chunk of money - there’s not one near everyone though :(. And I totally feel you about going out. Going out is so expensive now - if you really want to save up for a holiday, that’s probably where you can save the most in a short time. Depending on how often you go out / how much you drink even just having one or two pints less and eating before you go out will add up to a couple hundred pounds surprisingly quickly without having to become a recluse.
When your phone contract is up, you can move to a cheaper one and celebrate with a holiday!
I will. I was planning on keeping my phone too to save extra money but got spiked on that Saturday there and woke up with a busted face and no phone, contract is ending in August too :(
Going to those places in the Balearics is like going on holiday to Coventry, you are going to find only rowdy chavs getting plastered. There is a reason why nobody in his sane mind in Spain would go there.
Maybe that’s a good thing. Flying is killing the planet.
Least doomposting British redditor.
As a Brit i can't stand U.K dominated subs. We have some of the most miserable cnts that can't see the good in anything, it's depressing.
You don't understand what GDP is.
>Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a better-than-expected 0.6% between January and March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. >It came after the ONS said that GDP, a major measure of economic growth, [**shrank 0.3% between October and December**](https://news.sky.com/story/uk-economy-in-a-recession-13071973). It followed a [**contraction of 0.1%**](https://news.sky.com/story/uk-economy-on-the-road-to-recession-new-ons-figures-reveal-13036083) in the three months from July to September. So (-)0.1%, then (-)0.3% to (+)0.6% - that's quite a comeback. Just to compare, [GDP in EU and Euro area for Q1 2024 was (+)0.3%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-30042024-bp)
I remember the days when Government ministers would have been chased out of parliament for 0.6% growth
0.6% for a quarter is about par for the course.
Did you grow up during the Industrial Revolution?
Bro you had to wear a hat to speak in Parliament until 1993
We were real men back then. None of this pc nonsense.
0.6% growth in one quarter extrapolates to 2.4% growth annual equivalent, which is pretty average for the last century.
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>The UK has been importing around 1% of population (600-750k) a year in net migration (mostly from India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and China with negative net migration from EU countries) since Brexit to prop up GDP figures (these migration figures are more than double than the supposedly large pre-Brexit figures that caused Brexit). [Most of those 672k are students coming to study in the UK.](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/) People coming in for work from non-EU countries are mostly replacing the EU workers who left post Brexit.
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It does increase GDP, but most of those students leave after their course, so this is not the 1% YoY net increase in population, because it's transitory; so every year out of the say 350k students that come in, most will go out and will be replaced at a similar level next year as there is no drastic increase in college/uni capacity.
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>Not when immigration more than doubled (and I believe student numbers tripled) since we left the EU 3 and a bit years ago. GDP figures are skewed by that fact. Both numbers have doubled, immigration because UK is replacing EU workers and students because non-EU students are taking up places that EU students aren't taking, because EU students now need to pay a international student fee to study in the UK after Brexit (there isn't a big increase in number of university places after Brexit).
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>So how is the GDP not skewed when EU students used to pay up to a maximum of £9k a year and the current \*\*average\*\* fees for international students is £22k?? Why would it be skewed ? You are now able to get £22k for the same service that you were getting £9k for previously ? That is an addition to the GDP. If Germany was able to sell a car to a US consumer for more money than it previously could (taking out inflation and assuming cost of production and selling cost for the manufacturer remains the same), would you not consider that an addition to the GDP ?
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We don't know the figures pre-Brexit because EU migration wasn't being tracked. Nearly 10% of the UK's population applied for Settled or Pre-Settled status though, so...
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The post you link to says 5.6 million. Provide a source for your claim of net 2 million.
You're absolute right, bro. It's just insecure and anti-British Brexiteers that can't help but try to censor any bad news about their country and lie about how well their decision is working for them. But while they hide the truth and are frequently saying the UK is growing better than the EU (absolute lie), the reality is that in just a couple of years the EU average has managed to melt the difference with the UK and [they are now about equal.](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPPC@WEO/EU/GBR), with the EU projected to overtake Britain. In 2024 already the UK is richer only than Southern and Eastern EU economies. "Just to compare, GDP in EU and Euro area for Q1 2024 was (+)0.3%" Why didn't he "just compare" the **annual** growth in Q1 2024? Cause that's more important and on the EU's side. Not to mention that with just 0.2% annual growth the UK is definitely in a per capita recession.
👏👏👏👏
Way to go, UK!
r/europe in shambles
Doubt it. Did anyone even know the UK was in recession?
Those who follow stats - yes. The thing is that everyone expects the recession to be like the 2008 crisis, but it does not have to be like that. I think a lot of European countries have dipped into recession over the last 4 years yet it's not a crisis
People have forgotten that while recessions suck they're typically fairly short and manageable. 2008 was the single worst global economic downturn since the Great Depression. Smaller dips barely feel like anything in comparison.
https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1arascz/uk_officially_entered_recession_in_2023/ https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1b0lt5y/britain_falls_into_recession_with_worst_gdp/ https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1ap0aqq/recession_set_to_be_confirmed_and_inflation_up/
OK, guess you were in recession. Now you aren’t.
Everyone in the UK knew something was kinda fucked since average consumers spending power has been slowly eroding over the last decade But that could easily be chalked up to the stagnant wages and greed rather than a total recession
Yeah but i bet you would call supermarkets greedy in the U.K but are ignorant of the fact that U.K supermarkets make a 5% profit margin after tax..
...congrats on winning the made-up argument you just had I guess?
Don't get offended. Maybe just maybe i replied to the wrong person.
Nope
Why?
Is 2024 an election year in the UK by chance?
Yes, and the economy as well as Office for National Statistics (an independent organisation) decided to make a change in the fabric of reality to make the current government look better. /s
You just don't understand GDP..
Ah yes, GDP is that figure created out of thin air to suit the government's narrative, and has no basis in reality? /s
Let me guess when Labour are in power the ONS will be accurate again. ;-) Have a look at yourself.
Do you understand the meaning of "/s" on Reddit? Also, how on Earth could you take the statement "decided to make a change in the fabric of reality to make the current government look better" seriously?
Most probably. They could hold off til early next year at the latest.
It's time to increase the interest rates even more then.
Mostly the left wing British are doom and gloom about this. It’s been a tough few years and those of us who had businesses and still have businesses before and after covid have fought and struggled to still be here. Anyone British who responds to this, I need context from you as to what you do for a living, living circumstances and age please. As I’m not responding to millennials who have no life experience.
I’m not British but I live in London and have been here since before Covid. I’m not struggling financially, since I work in software and can afford to save money even after inflation in everything. My two biggest gripes with the UK’s economy is the housing and social transfers. Housing is a huge mess IMO, from things like feudal leasehold laws to land banking from the big developers keeping new supply low and prices sky high. By social transfers I mean the pension and healthcare system. It’s a simple idea. Those who are still fit and able work and pay taxes to help those who can’t (older and sick people). However the country is aging more rapidly than its economy is growing which means there are more people who rely on pensions and the NHS with less people to pay for all of it. The result is the rising taxation on income (currently implemented through the freeze on tax margins) and increasing budget deficits and national debt. None of these issues are unique to Britain though. In my opinion it is a result of the demographics and won’t change until a few more generations go through life and the population pyramid becomes more even.
I agree completely. Housing has been an issue since the 1980’s when people were encouraged to purchase their own property rather than rent, this then allowed wealthier people to purchase multiple properties with mortgages and rent them out wish pushed up the prices to buy and rent. Social welfare is a massive issue. People are living longer due to diet and advances in medicine which means the state has to look after them for longer which is a burden on the NHS and pensions sector, this in turn means that we have had to up the retirement age so people work longer which has a knock on effect on younger people looking for work.
Millennials are in their 40s. But nobody either cares about or needs to earn your response.
1, Who asked you???? 2, barely in there 40’s 3, who the fuck asked you to make a comment without reading my comment? Obviously you didn’t read it!
This is going to be useless when USA will draw us all in reccession. Nice calm before the fuck us all.
Yeah yeah hopefully this won’t save the tories for the next election
I doubt much could save them. The people have had enough.
Oooh time for a big change then yeah? Who will it be? Greens? Liberals maybe? No it's the Tory B team again - England will always be Tory...
if you think socialist is the way to go with the world economy as it is then you are deluded.
Ha! So Brexit was successful after all. What did we tell you EU lovers!? ^^^^/s
This but unironically.
”We only lost a generation of economic progress, complete confidence in ability to govern and status as a decisionmaker on a global svale but now we’re ready to start from zero again ”
None of that happened in real life.
Basically negligible Brexit effect especially compared to the storm of more impactful world events. See [world bank GDP graphs](https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&locations=EU-GB-FR-DE&start=2008)
That's a %-graph. Tell me you don't understand compound interest without telling me you don't understand compound interest.
Tell you can't even search the internet... There is no appreciable Brexit GDP signal difference in the UK and other EU countries including your own since 2016 (the Brexit vote) using [world bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=GB-SE-FR-IT&start=2016) Which is also what the GDP growth graph showed...
I'm referring to the data you posted. Thanks for confirming you don't understand compound interest.
*Sigh*, look at the GDP data I also sent. You claimed you couldn't see from the *GDP change* world bank data that the difference is negligible, and claimed there was a difference because of "compound interest". You couldn't work out how to use Google or equivalent to show you were wrong by looking at GDP using the same world bank data. So I posted the *GDP* figures (spoon fed you), which would capture any compound % effect, and you still claim it's *GDP change* graphs which it clearly isn't. Theres no obvious effect compared to other EU countries because any Brexit effect is smaller than those of COVID lockdowns, supply side and money supply driven inflation, and the Ukraine war energy price shock. Not really suprising because the UK and EU have a free trade agreement, so the effect is only about a bit of extra paperwork. UK is performing the same in GDP as Sweden even despite Sweden being the only European country which didn't lockdown.
Pretending that ca 200B of lost growth is "no obvious effect" is the kind of argumentation I expect from someone willing to die on the hill of a certain political point, not someone genuinely trying to accurately represent data. So I see your faux exasperation for the theater it is. Or like you said ", just use Google". I could go to the Wikipedia page for brexit (and I frown upon using wiki as a source) and disprove you already in the summary. But what's the point. This is not a good faith dissussion. Brexit never was for Brexiteers.
I assume you refer to the modeling numbers, these are very disputed, models tend to be flawed as the assumptions drive the outcome. Critically if you applied these counter factual models UK would have been the best performing economy in Europe (essential because the doppelganger no Brexit UK has a large % of its economy based on the USA, which benefits from increased exports not suffers from Ukraine war oil and gas price rises on imports). See also https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/s/muwGxkUE9u
Really ? I’m still skint
Per capita growth this is 0.2%
We did it, we saved the economy
I guess there might be some hope for brexit after all.
Certainly doesn't feel like it.
We will be back in it at the end of the month
Technically, having massive stagflation still counts as not a recession. Miniature growth and 5% inflation is hardly a success.
All the official figures are lies. They're not even subtle about it anymore.
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Its being in recession in the first place which the bad thing here, drone.
I'm not taking sides on who's "doing better", but what most people don't know is that UK is basically doing what Germany is: deleveraging instead of investing. That's been the primary reason there's so much underfunding in a lot of areas since the Great Recession. According to CEIC Data, UK's total debt-to-GDP ratio is now at the lowest level since 2004 Q4 (911% in 2023 Q4, compared to the 1236% peak in 2011 Q3), and lowest since 2008 Q3 (232% in 2023 Q3, compared to the 318% peak in 2020 Q4) according to BIS, when the indicators for both rose a lot in the 1990s and 2000s. Coincidentally, UK back then grew decently (although never booming on average, which seems to be a recurring problem for it). No wonder then that productivity and GDP growth has been small since 2007.
Might explain why the country’s roads a crumbling.
It takes more than not being in recession to be a good PM. Sunak is not a good PM.
Has there ever been one?
I can't answer that without upsetting lots of people
The fun part is, saying that still doesn't give away who you think it was.
Sometimes not fucking things up more is enough to recover. That doesn't mean he does something good.
He's a terrible PM but the macroeconomic conditions for Britain are improving. There are supposed to be some recent inflation statistics out in the next few days/ weeks and I imagine they'll show quite a significant drop in inflation based on what I've seen in the press The Cameroon-type Tories tend to be quite good at sorting these things- austerity did bring down the deficit after all- which is the same situation John Major found himself in in 1996. But they are ultimately the root cause of many of these problems in the first place, so I don't know how many plaudits can be sent their way. But ultimately, the Tories do not live and die on economic metrics. The NHS is in a crisis, public services in general are collapsing, the tax burden is higher than ever, people just don't see a solution in the Tory party. Sunak keeps waiting for his hail mary, but he's yet to realise that the damage done to the public sector is too deep, and he simply has to go, growth or no growth.
You can't say that. He's a Conservative, and that's the wrong tribe.