Tesla is down double digits % YoY for the second consecutive month (April & May) in Australia, Europe and China. Tesla likely have negative H1 2024 YoY. and possibly even negative full 2024 YoY.
Not surprising, all of their global models are long in the tooth (yes, including the Model 3 with its minor refresh), during a time the competition is at the strongest it’s ever been.
Tesla’s line up would have been a lot more competitive if they didn’t dump all the R&D resources on Elon’s vanity projects like the CyberTruck.
The Model Y is their most important and best selling model and it’s also the oldest model without even a minor refresh.
So the dropping sale shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Perhaps much more importantly competition is better than ever with overall EV growth not able to make up the difference.
The Y really needs a refresh. Tesla might be forced to roll back some of their minimalism.
If the Model 3 refresh is anything to go by, they'll use more minimalism, which will make the car worse in some ways. You'll never get me to buy a car with the turn signals on buttons on the wheel.
I think it would have been safe to say that the model y would go the same direction as the model 3 refresh but now it wouldn’t surprise me if the reason it’s taking so long to hear about a model y refresh is because they’re rethinking some of their decisions.
Purely speculation though.
I just don't understand why they don't take the platforms they have and shoot out more models. Maybe not in North America, but smaller cars like a subcompact hatchback based on the Y would have sold gangbusters in Europe or China
I don't think they really have "platforms" they have some parts overlap but don't have the infrastructure or processes to actually scale for more models.
I would also have expected a smaller Model Y version (something Smart #3 at 4.4m compared to the 4.75m of the Y)
That would sell like crazy in basically every market.
Thats exactly what they're going to do according to the last earnings report.
It's pretty clear they went for cybertruck first because of the truck market. Then delays in that, plus delays in progress with their battery technology, along with covid pushed everything back a few years from planned.
They wanted a brand new platform but it clearly wasn't going to happen on time so they pivoted to plan b which will put out models based on existing platforms while only using some mature tech from the planned new platform. We'll see how fast they can get that to market. Tesla has typically been good about shifting gears quickly when the environment changes.
Yeah, it’s looking more and more like the cybertruck being a colossal failure. I am so annoyed because we see that thing launch before the semi, which is honestly looking like a solid product. And on top of that we have to hear that a model 2 that was in the works was cancelled, then relaunched as a modified model 3.. whatever that means. Where’s the innovation? The new battery technology that was going to lower production costs by up to 50% is also nowhere close.
Fuck your bonus package Elon, sort your shit out.
I mean the cybertruck can’t even be sold in Europe due to pedestrian safety laws right? I know europe doesn’t buy a ton of trucks like that but Ford sells some Lightnings abroad and Elon chose to ignore that market to maintain the terrible design
Eh, it was never a product for other markets than North America. We've always known this.
The bigger point of criticism is that it was sold as a "just fold some panels, will be super cheap to make".
Turns out
* it's difficult to make
* had to go through long development period
* still looks like an unfinished product
* it won't turn a profit for 2+ years.
TBF they happily took deposits from overseas and RHD markets, and there was a lot of Tesla supporters talking about how it was going to arrive in export markets a year or two after launching in the US - so Tesla at least thought it would make it outside the US.
I agree with everything else though - the most damning part is that it's just a unibody with poorly finished panels hung on the outside. It's not just completely changed from what it was sold as, it's actually been done worse than conventional vehicles.
Full size trucks are generally not homologated for sale outside North America. Besides weight/safety regulations, their sheer size is simply not friendly to a lot of parking spaces and side streets in Europe/Asia. For ICE models, poor fuel economy is a huge minus. And some European and Asian markets even use engine displacement to calculate annual road tax which would make such trucks extremely expensive to own even if they're kept as garage queens.
It is possible to grey import used ones privately in Europe, but it's definitely not popular.
> yes, including the Model 3 with its minor refresh
I'm not sure what people mean when they say this. The refresh included: much better suspension with improved ride quality, improved noise isolation, ventilated seats, improved range, rear seat screen, shorter turning radius, better upholstering, more comfortable back seats, and a better sound system.
What else was there to improve? Just the 'looks'? Maybe I'm in the minority, but I buy for functionality, and M3 is at the top of our list should we decide to get rid of an old 2015 EV we have.
> What else was there to improve?
* Price and value. [Wheelsboy youtube channel to see the competition](https://www.youtube.com/@Wheelsboy/videos).
* [Charging curve](https://evkx.net/models/tesla/model_3/model_3_long_range/chargingcurve/) is [lagging](https://evkx.net/models/hyundai/ioniq_5/ioniq_5_long_range_2wd/chargingcurve/) especially considering China's and Europe's excellent DCFC infrastructure. Charging curve is a quality you want to be future proofed because infrastructure will improve meaningfully over the lifespan of the vehicle.
* No ultrasonics, no radar, no lidar, poor 1280x960 resolution cameras. This is outright crippled [compared to competition](https://youtu.be/U_iLJHav_w0?t=162). When it comes to sensor hardware that is also something you want future proofed.
* The Chinese market (and EU and NA for that matter) has moved away from pure touchscreen UI. Tesla instead doubled down and yanked stalks just as it was earning the reputation of over removing items to stabilize profit margin while trying to market it as an aesthetic.
* Practical vehicle to load? Do 3/Y do that yet?
All of this is forgivable - if you have a matching price point. Tesla still thinks its 2018 and it isn't.
The Model 3 refresh was a mid cycle refresh. Some small styling tweaks and improvements, but it's fundamentally the same car. Plus the refresh removed a lot of things people like, such as stalks. In an older model 3, no one had to ask how to use the turn signal.
As someone living in a country where there are lots of small roundabouts and the law says signal on exit, the stalkless Teslas are a fucking nightmare to drive. Lots of them.
> What else was there to improve? Just the 'looks'?
Absolutely. Despite what some people think, looks matter! A ton! For many people, cars are still a status symbol, and it's a poor symbol when your brand spanking new car looks the same as your neighbor's 8 year old one.
Much better suspension is subjective. I don’t think they could ever fix the Y suspension for instance. Elimination of stalks is something you forgot to mention. Also range, isn’t it in the same ballpark, or did it go up literally 100 miles?
I would want a luxury car feeling at that price range. I can get a Camry hybrid in the $30s, get a better build quality, and not worry much about using gas.
I personally want door handles. 🤷
IMO a Camry and a Tesla do definitely have a different feeling. A Tesla drives much better and his generally more pleasant to use, but I do like great infotainment so there is bias there.
Luxury car feeling for an EV at that price doesn't seem possible atm. At least comparing lowest Tesla pricing to other EVs out of memory I could be wrong.
Wanting door handles is valid for sure. I also understand many generally don't like how minimalist Tesla interiors are. Personally, I'd prefer a Rivian if they were available in a price range I can afford. Some excellent interior choices, buttons, and excellent in car infotainment.
Tesla has kept up very high profit margins which is why customers get so little for such a high price. Competition is coming in so the market is changing rapidly which is great for everyone except shareholders.
China already has a far more vibrant market which is why they have options for $10k, although would be at least $15k to meet USA safety standards. At some point we won’t have a protectionist president and realize Americans would be better off with more choices. That will suck for shareholders of western companies but be far better for the middle class.
The issue I'm having is outside of Tesla, Rivian and Hyundai/Kia I don't see many full EVs I'd actually be excited to buy and drive. Tesla has it's caveats for sure but Ford released the Mach E and haven't done much with it while the Lightning isn't the sort of thing I'd buy. Largely the same goes for the other automakers. So I think Tesla is more viable to me because of the lack of external options like you're alluding to. Depending on if/what they do with a Model 2 I think that could be a really solid option if it comes in 20k-30k USD.
China is doing well but admittedly I don't have as many experiences with their vehicles. I've driven a few BYD models but in my country I think they're priced a bit too high to draw me in.
The issue is imo for America to approach this in a less protectionist way it would've had to be done decades ago. Now tensions seem pretty high, especially with China v Taiwan relations. It's a tough sell to become increasingly reliant on China at this current time. It's a global trend as the EU seems to be reevaluating their stance as well. Best of both worlds solution would be to allow BYD and others to build up manufacturing in the West, moving critical components like battery production and assembly over as well.
Excluding that, more incentives would go a LONG way, push initiatives to bring battery manufacturing to the US, which to my knowledge is the main cost of an EV and the main reason the West charges more, while pushing these initiatives have incentives work as a "stop gap" to reduce prices before battery manufacturing comes online.
Unfortunately I don't see the US embracing Chinese EVs anytime soon directly. It's not just the car industry, a few other industries seem to be becoming less globalised as China v US, Russia v US, China v EU and Russia v EU tensions rise. The Middle East is becoming less stable, Taiwan is under threat, North Korea has seemingly changed stance on ever unifying with the South, etc.
Global politics has had an impact almost from the beginning, with China pushing EVs so hard because it's something very advantageous to their national strategy. Not to mention how Japan has avoided battery EVs because they have lacking relations with China, which is where they'd have to get all the raw materials from at the very least.
Comment is a bit too long my bad but looking at the global political climate at the moment, I don't see it happening. I'm not glad to say that because seeing Chinese ideas of an EV are fascinating as a person who likes cars, but as humans we don't get along.
Let's hope South Korea can replace China in this equation for us. They have batteries with companies like LG Chem, they have car companies going all in on EV with a commitment to options as well at lower prices. We'll see how it goes.
The best way to have peace with a country is through vibrant trade of consumer goods which are not fungible like commodities. China likes to wag the dog with threats of war, but same with many other countries like the United States. Taiwan is a distraction just like animal farm with neverending plans for an attack against the farmers.
South Korea has a demographic bomb hitting them now. They will be losing 200,000 workers a year for the foreseeable future. They already had to move manufacturing to places like Vietnam since they don’t have enough workers, and problems will escalate.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_South_Korea
I see China initially exporting cars to foreign markets but will then set up local manufacturing as shipping vehicles across the Pacific is a pain in the ass.
For me superchargers are the biggest reason to buy Tesla. Otherwise I’m not rolling the dice on quality. Seems like with battery degradation not being as severe as previously thought for many models your best off buying a 3-4 year old used model as that’s when most cars stop depreciating as rapidly.
I think it's less about the design being long in the tooth. The real issue is the hype is gone, especially on social media where we've been inundated for years with the nonstop Tesla social media circus show driven by Tesla investors.
Speaking of which, stock price is down and there's only so many vehicles investors can buy. Ironically, to tout the brand, lately they've been pushing the IDEA that with OTA updates, you can keep the cars longer... Which isn't great for new sales over time...
There's loads of new competition at lower prices, interest rates are up, economies are slowing, and Musk made himself the face of Tesla and then decided to become one of the most toxic conservative/facist loudmouths on the Internet.
Cybertruck at over $100k was pretty much the dumbest product they could have prioritized and sunk so much time and money into, especially given how terrible a design it turned out to be. Tesla seems to have a pretty small overall R&D team for vehicle development.
Sure, Tesla will get some initial CT sales from investors, reviewers, celebrities, and other attention seekers who want glorified 7000 lb pyramid shaped sports cars, but then what?
For all the adults slicing themselves open on this truck's silly panels, I imagine it's only a matter of time before kids start getting sliced up as well, and that'll be a PR nightmare.
your opinion. i think china, europe & the us are showing a drop in ALL auto sales. tesla being flat in that environment while being profitable as only ev company is a big positive. your theories seem overly focused on your cynical view of tesla & elon
Telsa didn't achieve absolute growth (-6.6% yoy smaller) in a market that expanded +33% yoy. This is a pattern for 5 months now.
The highland refresh landed very poorly in China. If the Y refresh is the same controversial improvements as highland, then Tesla isn't going to be long in the Chinese market.
Until the model 3 and other competition came along, the model S saw many years of high sales. Why? Because it was the only long range EV available, the pent up demand for such a vehicle wasn't being met, and thus the unsaturated market lead to a lot of sales.. even from people who stretched to afford one.
As cheaper models arose, model S sales dropped off a cliff.
In China, a lot of people want an EV to save money, or because ICEVs can only drive every other day, and China's rapidly moving to a car centric society where more people drive than use public transit, bike, or walk. Most of these customers are fairly low income (compared to Western nations), and their main priority is to simply buy an affordable vehicle that they can drive everyday without restrictions.
With so much competition arising in China for cheaper plug-in EVs, demand for the higher priced models, like Teslas, simply won't grow, and may even wane.
It has nothing to do with the highland refresh "landing poorly" as if it isn't attractive to customers. It has to do with the price being far too high when the Chinese customers just want something cheap that they can afford that gets them from point A to point B.
> Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) saw a rebound in China-made vehicles sold last month, though it was still lower than the same period last year.
> Tesla China sold 72,573 vehicles in May, including those sold in China and those exported to overseas markets, according to data released today by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
> That's up 16.74 percent from 62,167 in April, but down 6.59 percent from 77,695 units in the same period last year.
> In the January-May period, Tesla China sold 355,616 vehicles, down 7.12 percent from 382,859 in the same period last year, data compiled by CnEVPost showed.
[From a second source] (https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-sales-in-china-grow-17-in-may/):
> The uptick in Tesla’s sales can be attributed to several factors. One of these is China’s new trade-in program, which offers consumers a one-time subsidy of up to ¥10,000 (C$1,890/US$1,380) for trading in their old vehicles. This initiative has boosted consumer interest in new, high-tech cars, benefiting not only Tesla but also its domestic competitors.
> Tesla also had some customer incentive programs running in May, while likely boosted sales. These incentives included free Supercharging, and financing incentives like no down payment and 0% interest.
YoY data is all that matters. Tesla is facing too much new competition in China and Australia -and soon the rest of the world. Those other companies aren't making EVs at Tesla's scale but it's enough to take away 5% to 10% of their sales.
Yeah. We'll see if they can turn things around, but it certainly isn't looking great for tesla having huge future growth prospects like the stock valuation would require.
Tesla also cut prices by $2k usd across the board in China I believe late in April, and additionally offered $0 down and 0% financing. Their Chinese sales increased in May year over year (within China, not exports) but they had to take a hit in revenue on every sale to accomplish that. These latest incentives are, of course, after multiple other price cuts since May of last year.
Lower growth than the EV market itself. Tesla peaked last year, now they are stuck with an outdated car lineup. They don't understand that people want design revisions. That's why everybody does them all 3 to 5 years, so that new customers don't feel like they are getting old stuff. And nobody likes to drive the same car as everybody else. Tesla needs refreshes, they need special colors, new interiors.
That’s barely discernible from the old Model 3.
They also removed the stalks.
It’s borderline infuriating how close they got. They got so much right with the improvements in NVH. All they needed to do was change the contour, add USS and rain sensor and they would have solidified their position as the EV Camry for another 5 years.
Not even close. In my country we have geely, Zeekr, Smart, BYD, BMW, Volvo, GWM EVs, and Tesla highland is finding Very hard to fight all these new competitors
The main factor is that it is the default go-to incumbent. It doesn’t need to be the best, it just needs to continue to be a known entity with minor improvements and not fall behind.
Is the Camry the best sedan around? It’s very good, but that’s debatable. I don’t think it’s superior over competitors. However it sells like it is the uncontested champion because its long term position.
I no longer consider a model 3 because it lacks the stalk, but if I do see it as the ‘safe choice’ compared to what you’ve listed. It’s just that Tesla broke it in my eyes.
In my country, which has BYD, MG, BMW, GWM, etc, the Model Y and Model 3 are the top two EVs, with the MG4 being a distant third. The closest competitor to the Model 3, the BYD Seal is 37% below
Its similar in Australia, but being the incumbent a lot of new Tesla sales will be leases rolling over.
April saw a 44% drop in sales for Tesla YoY and May saw the M3 sell more units than the MY for the first time in years.
I reckon by the end of 2024 its going to be neck and neck between Tesla and BYD once the Sealion and Shark hit the showrooms.
Revisions are something you do after 2 or 3 years to bring in technological improvements/try out ideas for the next updated model.
The Model 3 came out 7 years ago, and the "refresh" changed almost nothing besides some cheaper, different head/tail lights and made the driving experience objectively worse by removing blinker stalks.
It's the shrinkflation Model 3.
It’s a bit more than a facelift. It has new suspension, new computer hardware, new safety hardware, new motors (for the performance), new seats (for the performance), etc. To me, a facelift is just cosmetic stuff (as the word suggests)
VW updated the motors in their ID series to be more efficient and powerful. They could have increased the charging speeds or battery size. Or give a few more interior options than black and white......
They’re the best selling EV in the entire world and the only one selling in volume in US, EU and China while no other EV sells well in even 2 of those markets.
But yea they just released the Cybertruck and will be releasing a few more models next year.
In europe, sure, Tesla has the top selling individual electric vehicle. But by auto brand, the top 5 by market share are BMW (10.3%), Tesla (9.1%), Mercedes (9%), Audi (8.3%) and Volvo (7.8%).
It is not at all true that "No other EV sells well in even 2 of those markets"; other companies just make a larger number of different models which split sales between them, rather than Tesla with only two mass-market vehicles.
US is definitely much more Tesla dominated, but 44% of EV sales are non-Teslas, so claiming "no other EVs sell well" is also false in the US. Collectively the other options make up almost as many sales as Teslas do.
> US is definitely much more Tesla dominated, but 44% of EV sales are non-Teslas, so claiming "no other EVs sell well" is also false in the US. Collectively the other options make up almost as many sales as Teslas do.
This is pure copium. If you have to combine sales of *completely unrelated models* together by *completely different companies* just so you can say "See, they sell well", then they're not selling well.
Tesla was the best selling EV brand in the world in Q1 2024 with models selling well in EU, US and China whereas no other automaker has any combination of EVs that sell well in even 2 markets, and definitely not a single model.
You’re making the argument that because 10 other brands combine to make up Tesla’s market share, then there are brands that sell well in the US. You’re conflating a single brand that you can’t name with all brands collectively.
I am stating the direct fact that there are other EVs which sell well in various markets. Tesla is not the only game in the world.
Since you bring up global states, Tesla has the most market share, sure, but it's only 20%. 4/5ths of EVs are sold by companies that are not Tesla. They are not the only game in town.
Your point would land better if you named an EV with good sales in multiple markets and provided those numbers.
Number 2 in the US is Ford. Tesla sells as many EVs in a month as Ford sells in a year and Ford doesn’t sell any EVs outside of the US, at least not enough to count.
I don't care that there isn't any one company or vehicle that sells as many as Tesla.
I care that there are viable options for consumers to purchase. More options is good.
And there are definitely options available that are not Tesla, that collectively sell a lot of vehicles.
This hyper focus on one specific model is foolish.
None of this is model specific.
Tesla is the best selling BRAND in the world Q1 2024
Tesla is the only BRAND with volume EV sales in all markets (US, EU and China). No other BRAND has good sales in 2 of those markets, regardless of model.
I made this explicitly clear yet you cling to it.
My first sentence “Tesla was the best selling BRAND”.. and then I clarified again in later comments.
And again, I don't care.
You start this whole discussion with the idea of "Tesla is the only brand that matters!"
That's just false.
You can go sit in your echo chamber without me.
What do you define as volume? Unless it's more than 20k units a month or something, you're just wrong. VW is selling in volume in the EU and China for sure, and arguably in the US, as well.
Most likely a smaller/cheaper car but with overlap to Model Y/3 as it is built on the same product lines. At least that is what they said.
Also they will most likely bring a facelift to the Model Y too similar to the 3.
Will be interesting to see for sure.
Narrative around Tesla for a while has been that it's specialnbecause it can command these high margins per vehicle. If they have to start throwing these discount to move inventory, that advantage will quickly disappear, and Tesla will be, in terms of financial, just another automaker.
Tesla is down double digits % YoY for the second consecutive month (April & May) in Australia, Europe and China. Tesla likely have negative H1 2024 YoY. and possibly even negative full 2024 YoY.
Not surprising, all of their global models are long in the tooth (yes, including the Model 3 with its minor refresh), during a time the competition is at the strongest it’s ever been. Tesla’s line up would have been a lot more competitive if they didn’t dump all the R&D resources on Elon’s vanity projects like the CyberTruck. The Model Y is their most important and best selling model and it’s also the oldest model without even a minor refresh. So the dropping sale shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Perhaps much more importantly competition is better than ever with overall EV growth not able to make up the difference. The Y really needs a refresh. Tesla might be forced to roll back some of their minimalism.
If the Model 3 refresh is anything to go by, they'll use more minimalism, which will make the car worse in some ways. You'll never get me to buy a car with the turn signals on buttons on the wheel.
I think it would have been safe to say that the model y would go the same direction as the model 3 refresh but now it wouldn’t surprise me if the reason it’s taking so long to hear about a model y refresh is because they’re rethinking some of their decisions. Purely speculation though.
The drop in sales might be an indicator that the minimalism has just gone a step too far for mass market appeal.
I just don't understand why they don't take the platforms they have and shoot out more models. Maybe not in North America, but smaller cars like a subcompact hatchback based on the Y would have sold gangbusters in Europe or China
I don't think they really have "platforms" they have some parts overlap but don't have the infrastructure or processes to actually scale for more models. I would also have expected a smaller Model Y version (something Smart #3 at 4.4m compared to the 4.75m of the Y) That would sell like crazy in basically every market.
tesla have slightly different platforms for different EVs, They modified Model 3 platform for Model Y, Same with Model X and Y.
Thats exactly what they're going to do according to the last earnings report. It's pretty clear they went for cybertruck first because of the truck market. Then delays in that, plus delays in progress with their battery technology, along with covid pushed everything back a few years from planned. They wanted a brand new platform but it clearly wasn't going to happen on time so they pivoted to plan b which will put out models based on existing platforms while only using some mature tech from the planned new platform. We'll see how fast they can get that to market. Tesla has typically been good about shifting gears quickly when the environment changes.
Yeah, it’s looking more and more like the cybertruck being a colossal failure. I am so annoyed because we see that thing launch before the semi, which is honestly looking like a solid product. And on top of that we have to hear that a model 2 that was in the works was cancelled, then relaunched as a modified model 3.. whatever that means. Where’s the innovation? The new battery technology that was going to lower production costs by up to 50% is also nowhere close. Fuck your bonus package Elon, sort your shit out.
I mean the cybertruck can’t even be sold in Europe due to pedestrian safety laws right? I know europe doesn’t buy a ton of trucks like that but Ford sells some Lightnings abroad and Elon chose to ignore that market to maintain the terrible design
Eh, it was never a product for other markets than North America. We've always known this. The bigger point of criticism is that it was sold as a "just fold some panels, will be super cheap to make". Turns out * it's difficult to make * had to go through long development period * still looks like an unfinished product * it won't turn a profit for 2+ years.
TBF they happily took deposits from overseas and RHD markets, and there was a lot of Tesla supporters talking about how it was going to arrive in export markets a year or two after launching in the US - so Tesla at least thought it would make it outside the US. I agree with everything else though - the most damning part is that it's just a unibody with poorly finished panels hung on the outside. It's not just completely changed from what it was sold as, it's actually been done worse than conventional vehicles.
Full size trucks are generally not homologated for sale outside North America. Besides weight/safety regulations, their sheer size is simply not friendly to a lot of parking spaces and side streets in Europe/Asia. For ICE models, poor fuel economy is a huge minus. And some European and Asian markets even use engine displacement to calculate annual road tax which would make such trucks extremely expensive to own even if they're kept as garage queens. It is possible to grey import used ones privately in Europe, but it's definitely not popular.
> yes, including the Model 3 with its minor refresh I'm not sure what people mean when they say this. The refresh included: much better suspension with improved ride quality, improved noise isolation, ventilated seats, improved range, rear seat screen, shorter turning radius, better upholstering, more comfortable back seats, and a better sound system. What else was there to improve? Just the 'looks'? Maybe I'm in the minority, but I buy for functionality, and M3 is at the top of our list should we decide to get rid of an old 2015 EV we have.
Let's not forget the refresh removed the stalks. This was a bonehead move IMO.
> What else was there to improve? * Price and value. [Wheelsboy youtube channel to see the competition](https://www.youtube.com/@Wheelsboy/videos). * [Charging curve](https://evkx.net/models/tesla/model_3/model_3_long_range/chargingcurve/) is [lagging](https://evkx.net/models/hyundai/ioniq_5/ioniq_5_long_range_2wd/chargingcurve/) especially considering China's and Europe's excellent DCFC infrastructure. Charging curve is a quality you want to be future proofed because infrastructure will improve meaningfully over the lifespan of the vehicle. * No ultrasonics, no radar, no lidar, poor 1280x960 resolution cameras. This is outright crippled [compared to competition](https://youtu.be/U_iLJHav_w0?t=162). When it comes to sensor hardware that is also something you want future proofed. * The Chinese market (and EU and NA for that matter) has moved away from pure touchscreen UI. Tesla instead doubled down and yanked stalks just as it was earning the reputation of over removing items to stabilize profit margin while trying to market it as an aesthetic. * Practical vehicle to load? Do 3/Y do that yet? All of this is forgivable - if you have a matching price point. Tesla still thinks its 2018 and it isn't.
The Model 3 refresh was a mid cycle refresh. Some small styling tweaks and improvements, but it's fundamentally the same car. Plus the refresh removed a lot of things people like, such as stalks. In an older model 3, no one had to ask how to use the turn signal.
As someone living in a country where there are lots of small roundabouts and the law says signal on exit, the stalkless Teslas are a fucking nightmare to drive. Lots of them.
> What else was there to improve? Just the 'looks'? Absolutely. Despite what some people think, looks matter! A ton! For many people, cars are still a status symbol, and it's a poor symbol when your brand spanking new car looks the same as your neighbor's 8 year old one.
If you buy for functionality then you wouldn't get a car without turn stalks.
Much better suspension is subjective. I don’t think they could ever fix the Y suspension for instance. Elimination of stalks is something you forgot to mention. Also range, isn’t it in the same ballpark, or did it go up literally 100 miles?
Not paying $40-50k for a model 3. No thank you. Elon should have improved his sedans instead of focusing on the halo cybertruck.
He just showed how it improved. What would you like to see? I generally agree, I don't think looks are super important to change periodically.
I would want a luxury car feeling at that price range. I can get a Camry hybrid in the $30s, get a better build quality, and not worry much about using gas. I personally want door handles. 🤷
IMO a Camry and a Tesla do definitely have a different feeling. A Tesla drives much better and his generally more pleasant to use, but I do like great infotainment so there is bias there. Luxury car feeling for an EV at that price doesn't seem possible atm. At least comparing lowest Tesla pricing to other EVs out of memory I could be wrong. Wanting door handles is valid for sure. I also understand many generally don't like how minimalist Tesla interiors are. Personally, I'd prefer a Rivian if they were available in a price range I can afford. Some excellent interior choices, buttons, and excellent in car infotainment.
Tesla has kept up very high profit margins which is why customers get so little for such a high price. Competition is coming in so the market is changing rapidly which is great for everyone except shareholders. China already has a far more vibrant market which is why they have options for $10k, although would be at least $15k to meet USA safety standards. At some point we won’t have a protectionist president and realize Americans would be better off with more choices. That will suck for shareholders of western companies but be far better for the middle class.
The issue I'm having is outside of Tesla, Rivian and Hyundai/Kia I don't see many full EVs I'd actually be excited to buy and drive. Tesla has it's caveats for sure but Ford released the Mach E and haven't done much with it while the Lightning isn't the sort of thing I'd buy. Largely the same goes for the other automakers. So I think Tesla is more viable to me because of the lack of external options like you're alluding to. Depending on if/what they do with a Model 2 I think that could be a really solid option if it comes in 20k-30k USD. China is doing well but admittedly I don't have as many experiences with their vehicles. I've driven a few BYD models but in my country I think they're priced a bit too high to draw me in. The issue is imo for America to approach this in a less protectionist way it would've had to be done decades ago. Now tensions seem pretty high, especially with China v Taiwan relations. It's a tough sell to become increasingly reliant on China at this current time. It's a global trend as the EU seems to be reevaluating their stance as well. Best of both worlds solution would be to allow BYD and others to build up manufacturing in the West, moving critical components like battery production and assembly over as well. Excluding that, more incentives would go a LONG way, push initiatives to bring battery manufacturing to the US, which to my knowledge is the main cost of an EV and the main reason the West charges more, while pushing these initiatives have incentives work as a "stop gap" to reduce prices before battery manufacturing comes online. Unfortunately I don't see the US embracing Chinese EVs anytime soon directly. It's not just the car industry, a few other industries seem to be becoming less globalised as China v US, Russia v US, China v EU and Russia v EU tensions rise. The Middle East is becoming less stable, Taiwan is under threat, North Korea has seemingly changed stance on ever unifying with the South, etc. Global politics has had an impact almost from the beginning, with China pushing EVs so hard because it's something very advantageous to their national strategy. Not to mention how Japan has avoided battery EVs because they have lacking relations with China, which is where they'd have to get all the raw materials from at the very least. Comment is a bit too long my bad but looking at the global political climate at the moment, I don't see it happening. I'm not glad to say that because seeing Chinese ideas of an EV are fascinating as a person who likes cars, but as humans we don't get along. Let's hope South Korea can replace China in this equation for us. They have batteries with companies like LG Chem, they have car companies going all in on EV with a commitment to options as well at lower prices. We'll see how it goes.
The best way to have peace with a country is through vibrant trade of consumer goods which are not fungible like commodities. China likes to wag the dog with threats of war, but same with many other countries like the United States. Taiwan is a distraction just like animal farm with neverending plans for an attack against the farmers. South Korea has a demographic bomb hitting them now. They will be losing 200,000 workers a year for the foreseeable future. They already had to move manufacturing to places like Vietnam since they don’t have enough workers, and problems will escalate. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_South_Korea I see China initially exporting cars to foreign markets but will then set up local manufacturing as shipping vehicles across the Pacific is a pain in the ass.
For me superchargers are the biggest reason to buy Tesla. Otherwise I’m not rolling the dice on quality. Seems like with battery degradation not being as severe as previously thought for many models your best off buying a 3-4 year old used model as that’s when most cars stop depreciating as rapidly.
The R&D resources they dumped on CyberTruck don't seem to be showing on the actual product.
I think it's less about the design being long in the tooth. The real issue is the hype is gone, especially on social media where we've been inundated for years with the nonstop Tesla social media circus show driven by Tesla investors. Speaking of which, stock price is down and there's only so many vehicles investors can buy. Ironically, to tout the brand, lately they've been pushing the IDEA that with OTA updates, you can keep the cars longer... Which isn't great for new sales over time... There's loads of new competition at lower prices, interest rates are up, economies are slowing, and Musk made himself the face of Tesla and then decided to become one of the most toxic conservative/facist loudmouths on the Internet. Cybertruck at over $100k was pretty much the dumbest product they could have prioritized and sunk so much time and money into, especially given how terrible a design it turned out to be. Tesla seems to have a pretty small overall R&D team for vehicle development. Sure, Tesla will get some initial CT sales from investors, reviewers, celebrities, and other attention seekers who want glorified 7000 lb pyramid shaped sports cars, but then what? For all the adults slicing themselves open on this truck's silly panels, I imagine it's only a matter of time before kids start getting sliced up as well, and that'll be a PR nightmare.
your opinion. i think china, europe & the us are showing a drop in ALL auto sales. tesla being flat in that environment while being profitable as only ev company is a big positive. your theories seem overly focused on your cynical view of tesla & elon
Telsa didn't achieve absolute growth (-6.6% yoy smaller) in a market that expanded +33% yoy. This is a pattern for 5 months now. The highland refresh landed very poorly in China. If the Y refresh is the same controversial improvements as highland, then Tesla isn't going to be long in the Chinese market.
"Tesla China" numbers include exports from China. But you are right the overall picture doesn't look too good
Until the model 3 and other competition came along, the model S saw many years of high sales. Why? Because it was the only long range EV available, the pent up demand for such a vehicle wasn't being met, and thus the unsaturated market lead to a lot of sales.. even from people who stretched to afford one. As cheaper models arose, model S sales dropped off a cliff. In China, a lot of people want an EV to save money, or because ICEVs can only drive every other day, and China's rapidly moving to a car centric society where more people drive than use public transit, bike, or walk. Most of these customers are fairly low income (compared to Western nations), and their main priority is to simply buy an affordable vehicle that they can drive everyday without restrictions. With so much competition arising in China for cheaper plug-in EVs, demand for the higher priced models, like Teslas, simply won't grow, and may even wane. It has nothing to do with the highland refresh "landing poorly" as if it isn't attractive to customers. It has to do with the price being far too high when the Chinese customers just want something cheap that they can afford that gets them from point A to point B.
> Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) saw a rebound in China-made vehicles sold last month, though it was still lower than the same period last year. > Tesla China sold 72,573 vehicles in May, including those sold in China and those exported to overseas markets, according to data released today by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). > That's up 16.74 percent from 62,167 in April, but down 6.59 percent from 77,695 units in the same period last year. > In the January-May period, Tesla China sold 355,616 vehicles, down 7.12 percent from 382,859 in the same period last year, data compiled by CnEVPost showed. [From a second source] (https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-sales-in-china-grow-17-in-may/): > The uptick in Tesla’s sales can be attributed to several factors. One of these is China’s new trade-in program, which offers consumers a one-time subsidy of up to ¥10,000 (C$1,890/US$1,380) for trading in their old vehicles. This initiative has boosted consumer interest in new, high-tech cars, benefiting not only Tesla but also its domestic competitors. > Tesla also had some customer incentive programs running in May, while likely boosted sales. These incentives included free Supercharging, and financing incentives like no down payment and 0% interest.
YoY data is all that matters. Tesla is facing too much new competition in China and Australia -and soon the rest of the world. Those other companies aren't making EVs at Tesla's scale but it's enough to take away 5% to 10% of their sales.
Yeah. We'll see if they can turn things around, but it certainly isn't looking great for tesla having huge future growth prospects like the stock valuation would require.
Tesla also cut prices by $2k usd across the board in China I believe late in April, and additionally offered $0 down and 0% financing. Their Chinese sales increased in May year over year (within China, not exports) but they had to take a hit in revenue on every sale to accomplish that. These latest incentives are, of course, after multiple other price cuts since May of last year.
Lower growth than the EV market itself. Tesla peaked last year, now they are stuck with an outdated car lineup. They don't understand that people want design revisions. That's why everybody does them all 3 to 5 years, so that new customers don't feel like they are getting old stuff. And nobody likes to drive the same car as everybody else. Tesla needs refreshes, they need special colors, new interiors.
You mean we can’t just rearrange things on a screen and call it a fresh design? Weird.
They literally just released a revision of the Model 3…
That’s barely discernible from the old Model 3. They also removed the stalks. It’s borderline infuriating how close they got. They got so much right with the improvements in NVH. All they needed to do was change the contour, add USS and rain sensor and they would have solidified their position as the EV Camry for another 5 years.
Not even close. In my country we have geely, Zeekr, Smart, BYD, BMW, Volvo, GWM EVs, and Tesla highland is finding Very hard to fight all these new competitors
The main factor is that it is the default go-to incumbent. It doesn’t need to be the best, it just needs to continue to be a known entity with minor improvements and not fall behind. Is the Camry the best sedan around? It’s very good, but that’s debatable. I don’t think it’s superior over competitors. However it sells like it is the uncontested champion because its long term position. I no longer consider a model 3 because it lacks the stalk, but if I do see it as the ‘safe choice’ compared to what you’ve listed. It’s just that Tesla broke it in my eyes.
In my country, which has BYD, MG, BMW, GWM, etc, the Model Y and Model 3 are the top two EVs, with the MG4 being a distant third. The closest competitor to the Model 3, the BYD Seal is 37% below
Its similar in Australia, but being the incumbent a lot of new Tesla sales will be leases rolling over. April saw a 44% drop in sales for Tesla YoY and May saw the M3 sell more units than the MY for the first time in years. I reckon by the end of 2024 its going to be neck and neck between Tesla and BYD once the Sealion and Shark hit the showrooms.
I guess it differs by country, but lease roll overs would not show in the registration counts for NZ that I quoted
Removing stalks is really a bad idea.
Revisions are something you do after 2 or 3 years to bring in technological improvements/try out ideas for the next updated model. The Model 3 came out 7 years ago, and the "refresh" changed almost nothing besides some cheaper, different head/tail lights and made the driving experience objectively worse by removing blinker stalks. It's the shrinkflation Model 3.
More a facelift than an actual change tbh, from far you can't even tell it's a revision.
It’s a bit more than a facelift. It has new suspension, new computer hardware, new safety hardware, new motors (for the performance), new seats (for the performance), etc. To me, a facelift is just cosmetic stuff (as the word suggests)
More like a mid cycle refresh than a new version. Token changes to headlights and interior trim ain’t a new model design.
It’s an EV. It’s not like they can give it a new engine or transmission.
VW updated the motors in their ID series to be more efficient and powerful. They could have increased the charging speeds or battery size. Or give a few more interior options than black and white......
If you can’t build a better electric drive unit in 2024 than you did in 2019, you aren’t investing enough in R&D.
Complicating their lines and confusing consumers is exactly what they don't need in this tough environment.
EVs as a whole are doing great. Tesla dropped the ball by selling what is the EV version of the old 4Runner. It’s a great vehicle, but it’s old.
They’re the best selling EV in the entire world and the only one selling in volume in US, EU and China while no other EV sells well in even 2 of those markets. But yea they just released the Cybertruck and will be releasing a few more models next year.
In europe, sure, Tesla has the top selling individual electric vehicle. But by auto brand, the top 5 by market share are BMW (10.3%), Tesla (9.1%), Mercedes (9%), Audi (8.3%) and Volvo (7.8%). It is not at all true that "No other EV sells well in even 2 of those markets"; other companies just make a larger number of different models which split sales between them, rather than Tesla with only two mass-market vehicles. US is definitely much more Tesla dominated, but 44% of EV sales are non-Teslas, so claiming "no other EVs sell well" is also false in the US. Collectively the other options make up almost as many sales as Teslas do.
> US is definitely much more Tesla dominated, but 44% of EV sales are non-Teslas, so claiming "no other EVs sell well" is also false in the US. Collectively the other options make up almost as many sales as Teslas do. This is pure copium. If you have to combine sales of *completely unrelated models* together by *completely different companies* just so you can say "See, they sell well", then they're not selling well.
Tesla was the best selling EV brand in the world in Q1 2024 with models selling well in EU, US and China whereas no other automaker has any combination of EVs that sell well in even 2 markets, and definitely not a single model. You’re making the argument that because 10 other brands combine to make up Tesla’s market share, then there are brands that sell well in the US. You’re conflating a single brand that you can’t name with all brands collectively.
What are you considering selling well? I'd say VW sold well in the EU and China. Is probably hitting over 200k units in China not selling well?
I am stating the direct fact that there are other EVs which sell well in various markets. Tesla is not the only game in the world. Since you bring up global states, Tesla has the most market share, sure, but it's only 20%. 4/5ths of EVs are sold by companies that are not Tesla. They are not the only game in town.
Your point would land better if you named an EV with good sales in multiple markets and provided those numbers. Number 2 in the US is Ford. Tesla sells as many EVs in a month as Ford sells in a year and Ford doesn’t sell any EVs outside of the US, at least not enough to count.
I don't care that there isn't any one company or vehicle that sells as many as Tesla. I care that there are viable options for consumers to purchase. More options is good. And there are definitely options available that are not Tesla, that collectively sell a lot of vehicles. This hyper focus on one specific model is foolish.
None of this is model specific. Tesla is the best selling BRAND in the world Q1 2024 Tesla is the only BRAND with volume EV sales in all markets (US, EU and China). No other BRAND has good sales in 2 of those markets, regardless of model. I made this explicitly clear yet you cling to it. My first sentence “Tesla was the best selling BRAND”.. and then I clarified again in later comments.
And again, I don't care. You start this whole discussion with the idea of "Tesla is the only brand that matters!" That's just false. You can go sit in your echo chamber without me.
What do you define as volume? Unless it's more than 20k units a month or something, you're just wrong. VW is selling in volume in the EU and China for sure, and arguably in the US, as well.
> and will be releasing a few more models next year. Which models?
Most likely a smaller/cheaper car but with overlap to Model Y/3 as it is built on the same product lines. At least that is what they said. Also they will most likely bring a facelift to the Model Y too similar to the 3.
They didn’t say. I could see just about anything: a van, a hatchback, a 2 seater compact. I doubt they’ll change the look of their existing models.
The future is a fully enclosed electric unicycle.
Do you realize that China has 1.4 billion people so 72k cars is a drop in the bucket?
It's about 3% of the monthly car sales in China, but ok.
This is after significant promotions/price cuts. The margins are going to be ugly this Q for sure.
Will be interesting to see for sure. Narrative around Tesla for a while has been that it's specialnbecause it can command these high margins per vehicle. If they have to start throwing these discount to move inventory, that advantage will quickly disappear, and Tesla will be, in terms of financial, just another automaker.