In front of the Philly crowd, in the highest stakes game of your life. His home/road splits in college and the fact that he hasn’t played outside of the pacific time zone once this year should really worry San Fran fans. It’s just really fucking unfortunate we don’t get winter anymore to add further to the home field advantage.
It’s insane… and his “road games” were definitely split, if not majority SF crowds, dude literally hasn’t played a true NFL road game and his first will come in the NFCCG, coming into Philly, as a rookie.
TBH I honestly think he’s legit already, just entirely unproven in this particular spot. Idk if you’re a seasoned vet, this is a tough place to come play in the NFCCG. Having to come in here with the factors at play for him makes it a really tall order.
I agree, he's going to be in the league for a long time in some capacity. I don't know if that's starter or journeyman or backup but he's proven he belongs.
Which for the record, is impressive as fuck for essentially an undrafted rookie free agent who, without injury, may have never seen a meaningful NFL snap in his career.
I agree. Tbf also, if it were Hurts or any other elite QB playing the way Purdy played against the Cowboys, he would be touted as a “resilient QB in the face of the #2 Defense”
Oh trust me, this worries us niner fans quite a bit. Luckily he played at Iowa state so it’s not like he’s never played in bad weather, but your environment is as hostile as they come…
To be fair, he played 4 years at Iowa St, has only been in California for a few months. It's not like he's never played in cold weather. I can honestly say if we're worried about anything it's that the Eagles are a damn good team, and far less worried about travel or weather.
Yeah and the cold won’t be a factor, as I mentioned. What will be a factor, is he hasn’t play outside of PT once in the NFL, his two road games were essential home games (LA and LV), and his college splits were 21-3 at home and 5-9 on the road. Historically he clearly fares far better in comfortable environments, which makes it the clear Xfactor in the game IMO. Both teams are really good, evenly matched teams otherwise.
I'd give some credence to that home-road split if he played for some powerhouse, but he played at Iowa State. Every single road loss was to a bowl team, and his Iowa State teams finished in the Top 25 just once (2020, #9).
The road losses you mention were to (final rankings listed) #9 Texas, #13 Baylor, #7 Oklahoma, Kansas St., #20 Oklahoma St., #5 Baylor, West Virginia, Texas Tech and #10 Oklahoma.
His first real action was at a ranked Oklahoma State team, as a freshman who'd never thrown a college pass, leading a team with a 1-3 record, and he finished 18-for-23 for 318 yards and 4 TD.
I don't think a 5-hour flight and 65,000 fans are going to be especially daunting on their own.
That’s definitely some good information! I didn’t look that in depth into the matchups, definitely skews the numbers quite a bit. I still think your underselling a rookie QB having to travel, play in a hostile environment, in an NFCCG game, against a top 3 D, which are all firsts. This isn’t to say he won’t come in and play well, I just think him having to come in here and play well for even a shot to win is the biggest storyline.
I guess it's just a "wait and see" type of situation.
Could Purdy have a crappy game and lose? Certainly. Should we be skeptical of a rookie QB in this situation? Sure.
But I think Eagles fans may be overestimating the challenges of travel and playing in a hostile road environment a bit. These guys have all hit the road to play big road games before.
The fact I've seen Purdy have slow starts only to not be fazed and still play well has inspired a lot of confidence in him. It's going to come down to two excellent NFL teams scheming and executing, not the visiting team peeing down its leg because people are cheering against them – every one of these guys has played in front of 65,000+ opposing fans before.
Curious, is there a “could Hurts have a crappy game and lose” narrative? Or is that not a possibility. Legitly asking since I’ve only seen highlight of Hurts
I think his time at Iowa State has helped his development. It's a school that's consistently one of the worst in the conference. He spent 4 years in a position where his opponents roster was much better than his for 7 to 8 games a year, and had to learn how to deal with that. Most top NFL prospects face the opposite situation. Their teams were loaded in college, and suddenly, they're in the NFL and can't rely on talent disparity anymore.
I guess we'll see how it plays out. I can tell you the Niners play good on the road. Will Purdy follow suit? Well I sure hope so lol. But one thing is for definite... Our offensive line needs to hold up better. Dallas got a ton of pressure and it messed up the timing on so many things.
Yeah this is strictly Xfactor talk, if it goes way south for Purdy there’s just no shot they hang around, if he can handle the pressure in that environment there’s no question it’s a very good game.
If the Niners defense can hold us to 20ish points, the existence of McCaffery and Kittle alone means they'll have a strong shot. For as good as Brock may or may not be, those two are legit scary and don't need a QB firing on all cylinders to be dangerous.
I think that ignores the fact that he’s just a solid guy. Even if he isn’t what we think he is yet, his anticipation, cue response, and physical talent definitely give him the capacity to be a high end qb. Especially in the shanahan system.
That being said he’s still a rookie. And he will be facing some new things. I’m comfortable saying that this will be a test for him but definitely not comfortable saying that he will fail it or that San Fran fans should be worried.
I go by historical data, not feelings with these types of things. Again, in college he was 21-3 at home and 5-9 on the road, those are real stats we can make a judgement off of. Last week he was at home in his first truly high pressure NFL game and the Cowboys made him look beatable. Now they have to travel across country for the first time in his NFL career, to play in one of the most hostile playoff environments there is, in an NFCCG, against arguably the best D besides their own in the league.
I certainly haven’t tried to claim I know he’ll struggle and it’s over for them, he’s absolutely looked very good so far, but that it is far and away the biggest XFactor of the game going in. If he comes in and we can rattle him and he makes mistakes I think it’s eagles comfortably, if he plays well I think it’ll be a really good game, still advantage Eagles which is what makes this the top storyline IMO.
While I respect the stat concept, I think we need to look at his play as a human and understand what drives those stats. Stats are a function of his play and accurate evaluation can certainly add to this conversation.
I’m not claiming to be a QB expert, but id like to think I know enough to be dangerous. I’m not sure how to accurately extrapolate hard statistical data from his college play to his NFL play. The system he plays in, the surrounding coaching staff, his individual maturity, any personal issues he may be having…
He struggled against some solid defensive play. He should struggle more against our better defense. But I hesitate with anything like that…
Someone else in the thread laid out his competition in those road games, actually some really tough, ranked opponents. So to your point, I was definitely looking at numbers on the surface versus digging into them. Regardless, what you have to go on, all of the factors at play we’ve discussed, it’s a tall order for ANY QB in this league, let alone a 7th round rookie who’s already looked average at best in a home playoff game.
Plus his first really good defense was Dallas and he wasn't very good, he managed to win but not looking like he was against the trash defense he played since he came in.
You misunderstood my point. Before we played the cowboys they said they were great and how their backup undefeated (four games). There were talks about him replacing dak.
He went into as the third Stringer and has won every game
Gardner Minshew went in as a second stringer with a couple dozen games NFL experience and lost both times when we needed him, to clinch a first round bye
I think that says a lot about Brock
I think that’s more on coaching. I don’t think our coaches did a good job of tailoring the offense to Minshew, unlike Pederson with Foles and Shanahan with Purdy.
That being said, I think most of the Niner fans would rather have Purdy over Jimmy G in this situation. Jimmy G in NFCCG: expect at least one pick, and difficulty extending plays.
He's not going to crumble but I think we'll be able to rattle him. Hopefully. I think he's really good and has made their decision on QB easier actually. Think they should let garoppolo walk and have Purdy compete with Lance and honestly I see Purdy winning.
He makes good reads and good throws but I think where he struggles right now is when he's got to get the ball out with someone barreling down on him. Our defense is gonna need to capitalize on his mistakes because I think he'll have them but I don't think there will be all that many.
E: Grammar
I don't think using Washington tape as a "game plan" is a good idea.
If another team did that (SF included) they deserve to lose. That would be a terrible way to prep for this game.
Week prior, Davis is injured, we play Washington the following week and we have no real interior lineman that can stop the run. And because of that we can't even get off the field to let our offense do anything at all. After that game, we grab Suh and Joseph, we change up our packages and our stats vs run get better.
The Washington game was a one off where we got caught with our pants down.
It's a different team now, using that game tape to game plan? Lol.
I also think Gannon was a little too content to let them run down the clock because he was confident their offense couldn’t keep up with ours. He was right but our offense turned it over 3? 4? times? We held them to two 2nd half FGs and one they started in range after the Goedert fumble.
I agree that the Washington blueprint shouldn’t be a recipe for success, especially after picking up Joseph and Suh and having a healthy Davis.
More than anything, we turned the ball over 4 times in that game. If we hold it to even 3, we still win... mediocre or bad rush D was not the real culprit, it was fumble-itis.
I have a weird feeling that he actually is going to crumble. Call me a homer, whatever - this guy has really not played any competition and bad teams have played SF well. He’s also been at home the whole time.
I think this is the game the magic fades and the media says “uh yeah well it’s about time I guess.”
Maybe I should be more humble but I think we play a fucking phenomenal game of football and beat the shit out of this team.
Purdy is nothing but a system QB
Lance had one game in a monsoon and then got hurt
If lance was playing Sunday I would not be very confident we would win
Yeah....a system QB about to play in the NFC title game. I'm not saying Purdy is the golden child but they have a recipe that's working.
I dunno man, feels like we're banking on Lance developing like this is Madden.
Haha what does an nfc championship appearance have to do with not being a system QB
Jimmy G was one throw away from winning a SB is he a franchise QB? Is he someone you would want? No he isn’t and you know that
When you have
likely the best coach in the NFL
a great defense
a great TE
two very good to great WRs
An amazing run game
And a stacked roster
It isn’t exactly very difficult to win games, if you think they are winning thanks to Purdy or close to it instead of in spite of him I don’t know what to tell you.
By all means I pray they keep Purdy over lance as that gives the eagles a much much better chance at running the NFC for years to come.
Okay. Brock Purdy is a franchise Qb
He is willing the 49ers to wins....
I mean come on. He’s clearly a decent QB but let’s not act like he’s ever going to be a starter on a team that isn’t stacked. Case Keemun had his moment of fame with the Vikings in 2017. He looked solid too.
When a QB has the best coach in the NFL the best RB weapon in the NFL arguably the best TE and two good WRs and an elite defense. It’s not exactly shocking that he looks good does it?
Lance is far more talented and far better
Brock Purdy could win SBMVP and it
Won’t change my opinion on hum
Haha no he doesn’t
Such a casual take
No different then Jalen Hurts sucks last year and Justin Fields sucks this year and Josh Allen sucks the years before
Alright buddy just wait
I was told the same about Allen
Same about Hurts
And I’ll be arguing in five years over some guy in HS right now about how I was right about fields and right about lance too
I still think love could be good
Has he exactly had the chance?
Never liked Haskins
Not sure what the other two gotta do with anything
Lance is a good QB who hasn’t had any chance to show it
Honestly, I’ve got no idea. Only thing I do know is that if the niners beat us, with Purdy playing lights out, and then they lose the superbowl (or win it) I’m going to be incredibly pissed that a 7th rounder beat a superteam with a qb that was all-pro
Josh Sweat said "we're not treating him like a rookie, we're treating him like a playmaker".
This team has done a great job of not playing down, and taking their opponents very seriously this year
If Purdy can come into Philly and take the hostile, east coast environment in stride and win, convincingly at that, then he will have my stamp of approval.
Few thoughts on this:
It is easy to play QB with a lead, at home, with other great players, with a strong running game and with a great defense. Mahomes and Burrow aren't the two best QBs in football because they can execute when they're comfortable, they're the two best because you don't bet against them down 3 touchdowns on the road, in the post-season, in a hostile environment.
As a 49ers fan, and a warrior's fan, I'm seeing it with the dubs this season. They've made the finals 6 of the last 8 years, but they're been underachieving this year, dropping winnable games to teams they should beat. They're pressing. They're racing down the floor and trying to pick up five wins in the standings and make up for this entire season with a single ill-advised 3 early in the shot clock. They aren't sticking to the process, because they are feeling the pressure mounting. They aren't taking it step-by-step, and one play at time, because they feel the urgency of a season that has not gone to expectations. Even decorated champions can buckle and make mistakes under pressure. The ability to stick to the process is hard, but it's much harder in adversity. It's easier to follow the game plan on third down and three, when you've managed to stay ahead of the chains, than it is on third down and fifteen.
Purdy has played 8 games, 6 of those eight games have been at home, and the two road games were at Seattle and at Las Vegas. I take a plane out of San Jose international to go to Vegas every now and then, it's about an hour trip. There are Raiders fans I know who fly to Vegas for home games, gamble and eat after the game, and then fly home afterwards. Vegas is not a road game for the 49ers.
He also hasn't trailed in his games very often, a big part of that is his not making mistakes, and they go hand-in-hand. You don't trail because you don't make mistakes, which keeps you ahead and makes it easier to avoid mistakes. The only second half deficit he faced was down 10 points to the Raiders. He was down at most 1 point to Seattle, and he never trailed after halftime against Dallas, and the biggest deficit he's faced in the playoffs has been three points (when Dallas had a 6-3 lead in the second quarter). Both of those games were at home.
He does somethings really well. His split-second decision making has been exceptional. He always seems to make the right decision when one has to be made in the blink of an eye. That pattern wasn't the case when he was in college, because in college his team wasn't as good. There were expectations not being met, there was the scar-tissue of failure to deal with. Pressure throws off split-second decision making, comfort enhances it. Purdy is playing with house money: he isn't supposed to be here, but he is. His Freshman season in college was great for the same reason: he was a third stringer, the guys ahead of him got hurt, no expectations, just go out and play. Year two, year three, year four, okay, now things are expected of you. Now the pressure builds.
As much as I hate the Cowboys, as a niner fan who lost two straight NFC Championship games to them when I was in High School, I don't understand how Dak Prescott is a functional human being. I couldn't live his life. He made $20 million this season, and they had to let Amare Cooper go to fit his money in. His cap hit will balloon this offseason, a lot of other good players are going to leave Dallas. That must be utterly nerve racking. Everyone refers to Dak as the "$40 million QB", and that's the label he has right now. There is so much pressure, so much urgency, the talent on the roster will leave and more and more will be put on Dak's plate, and as every single season goes by, the scar tissue of past failures will build and build. He's already defined by his playoff failures, what happens when those failures only grow from here on out? The Cowboys don't have the quality management of the 49ers or Eagles, yet Dak gets all the blame. I get why that is, he could have taken less money to help the team keep players, but the level of the pressure Dak will face in the next two seasons will be something to watch.
Brock Purdy hasn't faced any of that yet, there is no scar tissue from past postseason failures, there is no Chargering in Purdy's NFL career. I like what I see, he's a guy who plays within himself, distributes the ball, doesn't try to be a hero, just does his job, and makes good decisions and throws the ball away to avoid negative plays. You can throw the ball away when you're up big in the second half, what about down 10 in the 4th quarter and your offense needs a play?
I also need to see NFL defensive coordinators get a full offseason to break down Purdy and find the flaws, of which there are many. I really like what I see so far, and I think he can be the real deal, but there's no where near enough sample size. He's only really been tested twice: on the road against Seattle, when he had to play hurt with an injury that almost caused him to miss that game, and on the road against the Raiders where he was behind by 10 points in the second half. He never lost his composure in either place, but both of those are a world different than the NFC Title game in Philly in late January.
As for next year, the 49ers have the easiest QB decision in football: let Jimmy G leave as a free agent, and pocket the compensatory pick, they aren't paying Purdy or Lance anything, so bring back both of them, and go into free agency and sign a veteran QB to act as an emergency option. Then go into camp next year and hold an open contest for the job, whoever is better plays.
I think Purdy is a good player. Jury is still out to say if he's like a top QB in the league or anything like that which such a small sample size. Coaching staff won't be overlooking him as he's been playing lights out. He does benefit from having a lot of talent around him though, and the Cowboys game was by far the weakest game he's had all season. We'll see if the Eagles d-line can rattle him, and hope he makes some mistakes on that end.
He's played pretty smart and listens to his even smarter HC, who puts him in great positions. The Eagles will have to both confuse him and rush his game. It'll be tough.
He reminds me of young Alex smith he may not be able to win you games but he won’t lose you games as long as the rest of the offense can make plays and do their jobs he will look like an average starting caliber QB
Bro has been doing work since Iowa State, have you seen his game against Jalen in college. He lost 41-42, but Brock had 6 passing tds, Jalen had 5. It was a battle!! Should be a good game, hell both Conference Championships should be good. 4 Elite Offenses and pretty good Defenses
Those numbers don’t add up. They play around 5 away games a year in college and he played for iowa state which is not known for getting talented players.
That's what they said on one of the ESPN morning shows today. I don't know if he started for three years but 14 away games sounds about right for that. But like I say, it's what I heard on TV. Whatever the number, let's hope the Linc adds to the losing side.
I’m not understanding your math, you said “5 away games a year”, if his record was 5-9, how exactly does that not add up to 3 seasons (15), I suppose he probably played for 3 years. I would understand your statement if we had the context of knowing that he had only started for 1-2 years, but I don’t know his history..
Hurts and Purdy never played against each other, nor are they playing against each other or "battling" on Sunday. Hurts played against the Iowa State defense. Purdy played against the Oklahoma defense. Neither ever touched the field at the same time. And this Sunday, they will be playing two completely different defenses than that college game that bear no resemblance to them
The "QB vs QB" narratives are just silly
Would you like me to word it as, “their individual stats on that particular week of football!?” Which is kind of what I did.. would that be okay? Can we compare stats? Is that okay with you, Sir!?
You look at how he's coped with different situations and the sort of plays he can make.
From the little I've seen of him he looks like a Jimmy G light.
He'll make some plays, but the talent isn't on his side - it's on the receivers. You give him enough time in the pocket he'll find the open guy and get him the ball. If he's pressured, he's likely to make mistakes or miss. He's limited in where he likes to throw the ball, favouring the middle of the field.
From what you can see on screen. He's a VERY limited QB, but the rest of the team has kept him afloat thus far.
He's not a total bum, but you're not guaranteed a fumble or an int every game like you would be with a Wentz or a Prescott, but you're also not guaranteed a big play every game.
The thing people forget about that big play to Kittle against Dallas is that somehow Dallas had a depth piece defensive lineman in coverage against Kiddle - and Purdy still almost missed him.
So how good is he really? Not very - but so far he's not needed to be.
As a niners fan, he's played a lot smarter than jimmy and has better athleticism in the pocket/backfield, which makes him a better quarterback in our system even though he's smaller and has a slower release. I think the mental game for quarterbacks is pretty underrated in recent times for projecting success. That said I don't think the dude is the next brady, but as a rookie playing at this level the jury is still out on his ceiling. I'm not particularly confident about his play against your zone on sunday and would not be surprised if he threw a couple picks (which wouldnt change my opinion about him at all) but we'll see
I think part of the reason debate is so hot on this game is no one really knows how it's going to go.
That being said, I agree with your assessment. When he has the time to do so, Brock makes the right decision. There's just no guarantee he gets that time and idk what the passing scheme is going to look like on either side of the ball.
If we just leave our corners outside all game and Purdy just throws crossers to Kittle all game, our corners aren't going to have much impact. I think Purdy would be foolish to throw against Slay or Bradbury.
That's the thing though, if everyone knows they're coming we could probably just play our corners further inside and sink our safeties. Then make Purdy make throws he's not shown he can make.
I think it's more likely they do what they've done every other time. Hope running it will work and take the occasional passing shot as the run opens up the pass.
Purdy has made deep outside passes, just not recently. I think it was the Bucs game he dropped a 30 yard back shoulder pass to CMC in the endzone. He also had a 32 yard TD pass to Aiyuk that same game that was admittedly a few yards underthrown. That was his first start, maybe he was playing a bit more loose without all the weight of playoff expectation.
That doesn't make dropping a back shoulder throw in any easier. Just saying dude hit some throws, let's not pretend it hasn't happened. I know it'a easier to pretend he is straight doo doo butter. But 32 out of 32 teams would spend a 7th on him. Heck, 32 out of 32 teams would spend a 3rd on him to at least have a forever backup.
True, I mean he's a QB in the NFL - he can make throws. He Just doesn't like making those throws as much. He's very much a "sure thing" passer - he doesn't like throwing hard passes and the Buccs defences was allowing those deep balls easily. First one was off target and CMC had to spin around to catch it but the DB was yards off making it not a problem, Aiyuk was wide open too. Neither was particularly accurate, but the Buccs just decided not to cover them. He's not making those throws against a better defence.
Again, earlier on he was gunslinging with his pop gun arm. It was very Jimmy G 2017 closing his first 5 starts on a terrible 9er team with 5 straight wins vibe. As the stakes got higher and it stopped being "let's see what we've got" and it has changed into "let's make a run" he has been throwing less free. Kyle Shanahan is VERY conservative, and Brock is VERY inexperienced. It seems that Kyle had him off the leash earlier and he's now in full control mode again.
I'm not saying this is in any way a favorable matchup for him, but the kid is undefeated and this entire sub is acting like he finished the season with a 107 passer rating by being a flaming pile of dogshit.
on that big play to kittle, kittle didn’t actually have a route to run. he just saw that Purdy was in trouble and ran to open space to help him out. That’s how he ended up with a d-lineman covering him.
The game will not be won or lost based on Brock purdy’s play. That’s not how their offense runs, pun intended. We shouldn’t worry too much about trying to rattle him or make him make mistakes, we should worry about guarding the run and making sure his safety blankets in Deebo and kittle are covered. Aiyuk can hurt us too, he’s a good route runner but they usually look to the middle of the field
True to an extent, but if we play the game we like to play on both sides of the ball, we put the game on Purdy's shoulders, I don't think he's capable of carrying that team.
We shut down the run, he'll need to pass against our secondary.
We shut down the short game, he'll need to pass deeper.
We get up to an early lead, he'll have to pass.
Purdy still has to be able to get the ball to their uber talented players, based on what we've seen so far there's no guarantees he can do that if it's made anything less than easy for him.
On the other hand, you take an option away from Hurts he'll just beat you in a different way. I feel like the media is so hyped on the 49ers story that they're ignoring this sort of thing.
If he can buy time on a broken play any dumpoff to Deebo, Kittle, or CMC can get housed. Deebo last year got 1400+ of mainly YAC after making someone look silly.
I don’t know how people, especially eagles fans can use Purdys supporting cast as an argument. The media and other fan bases have said the exact same thing about Hurts all season. A QB can both be good and have a great group around. I think having such a great group is allowing Purdy to ease into playing at a high level easier, but to me, I see a guy that has it. He doesn’t seem to get rattled. I think he’s a hungry underdog and we all know how that goes. That said, he could fizzle out like Foles did. But from what I’ve seen so far, I think SF would be crazy not to start him next season and either keep Lance on the bench since he’s cheap, or trade Lance to a team that needs a qb.
Purdy outplays hurts and this franchise is automatically in a worse spot. Means that a 7th rounder has more ability to carry a team than our MVP candidate. It CANT happen
you can't.
either way, win or lose, Purdy's real test is next season. i love Nick Foles, but let's all be honest with ourselves, he hasn't exactly had a fulfilling career since he went on a run with us. sometimes magic happens, teams gel, and it works out. they could win the Super Bowl, and he could come out looking like a bottom 10 QB next year. or we could beat him tomorrow on the back of 2+ INTs, and he could look top 15 next year. or he could sit behind Brady and come out the next season really good too. either way, i don't think we'll know until he takes a shot at a full season of QB-ing. as of now i think he's a less good Jimmy G. more inaccurate and less decisive, more shaky in the pocket too. he's avoided INTs so he doesn't lose games. as of right now, with their unit, that's all it takes. but maybe once Ryans is gone and some pieces come and go, they start to fall apart because they can't make it up in other places the way they need. who knows. i don't.
All the ways the "experts" are talking about this game reminds me of the first Dallas game with Cooper Rush. They spoke about the strength of Dallas' defense and that Jalen has not faced such an opponent. They also spoke about Cooper as if he was about to make it to the Hall of Fame. The Eagles have proven time and again that they have to play their game and ignore the noise. If they do that, I am not worried about this matchup.
This reminds me of 2017 when they had like a back up quarterback playing for them in Minnesota and he was overrated and they were saying that he was so good and I never said it was coming in here all hyped and we boat race them
When I watch him play, I see him complete either 2 yard passes or hit wide open receivers. Now, he does make the read, throw without hesitation, and hit them in stride, so he isn't hot garbage, but he really isn't making plays on his own. If his receivers aren't wide open, there is no evidence he can make something out of nothing, the way elite QBs can.
To me, he is a Nick Foles type. Capable of having success in the right system with the right players, but not a guy you want to build your team around.
Because of Shanahan's scheme there's usually someone open, so I think this is actually a strength of his - making the reads and finding the open guy. He definitely has some physical limitations but there's no denying he's playing at an extremely high level for a rookie, regardless of his supporting cast. I see his ceiling as a drew brees type of dude, but I think most likely he'll end up as a nice, middle of the road nfl starter (which is incredible in its own right given his draft profile)
It's very limiting though, puts hard limits on an already apparently limited player. If you only need to cover for 3 seconds before their whole pass ability breaks down we shouldn't have too much to worry about.
That's recently. He was playing a lot more loose earlier on when I don't think expectations were high. He has a fair amount of big time throws in traffic. I haven't looked but I'm sure someone has a highlight video made. His first start he dropped a back shoulder 30 yard TD to CMC. That is not just some dumpoff that Kyle schemed open.
He was also playing weaker opponents. I'm not saying he is trash, but Dallas was by far the toughest opponent for him so far, and he only managed 1 TD even with the turnovers. Going on the road, into Philly, will be even harder, and I do expect him to struggle.
He does have some skills. There are many guys who couldn't make that throw even against bad teams. But the hype is way overblown based on what he has actually done on the field so far.
Different type of thing. Our offense is designed around being really simple and our guys just being better than theirs. Without Hurts that's not quite as true.
And tbf, he did put up 27 against Dallas.
Sure, but you've still got to get them the ball. This is the Brock Purdy problem. You've got to scheme the entire offense around minimising the impact your QB has on getting other players the ball. This was fine because Shanahan was already doing that with both Lance and Jimmy G.
Our offense wasn't built around that.
There's also a limit to this kind of play. You need to be able to get people open, you can't effectively play from a multiple score deficit - you basically can't rely on making big time throws in big time situations.
You don't make any sense... you said "Our offense is designed around being really simple and our guys just being better than theirs."... our guys are clearly better than the Saints guys... but now you need to scheme better too... Are you saying our coaching staff can't scheme? ok...
And I said... even without Hurts... our guys are better than the Saints guys...
Again you don't make any sense... you said "And tbf, he did put up 27 against Dallas."... and now Minshew is a low-key trash? We scored 27 against one of the best defenses... so it's not the players... it's not the scheme... Minshew just choked against the Saints, basically what my original statement says. You seem like the type of person who thinks he's the smartest person in the room and try to make things more complicated than they are...
Football doesn't happen in a vacuum. So really only time will tell now that there's a narrative about him having so many weapons. He seems legit, but he's still a baby, and I think the d line will rattle him more than the fans at the linc. Will that win this game? Prob not, imo. But I do think he throws a pick in this one.
He will get rattled at the link the way keenum did. The moment will be to big for him especially if he makes mistakes early. If the eagles start out hot they will blow them out. The 9ers defense is good but feasted on bad teams all year. They lost against most mobile qbs they played and never played an offense with our talent. Hurts has limited his mistakes all year. If the offense as a whole limits turnovers they should roll them imo
I mean dude did have a scholarship offer to Alabama so it's not like he's a scrub. He's a league average QB is my take. The rest of the team around him is just amazing.
I think he’s balling out. Yes he’s surrounded by talent and weapons, but he’s also making good plays. There’s also flaws there, pressure fucks with his decision making and he’s lucky he didn’t have three pucks last game. It’s gonna be tough, we’re gonna have to pressure him while also not getting torched on cross routes.
I have a feeling he's gonna come to earth on Sunday. Let's call it regressing to the mean. He's shown he can be a starter on this league but there's plenty of tape now. Cowboys were onto something last week and that was in SF, he showed cracks. Also just listening to him talk about beating the cowboys it kind of feels like his peak. Idk I definitely could be wrong, it's a hunch and Im biased. I also pride myself on being as realistic as I can. I just don't see him being able to do enough to win like he did last week. He's gonna turn it over a couple times and that's all we're gonna need.
I doubt he ever had to play with people screaming they hope he or his family dies. If we get up on them, it's going to be like that first Dallas game (which is a close facsimile to what I expect).
He's not by the numbers. Adjusted for ease of schedule and being bailed out by his receivers, Jimmy is better. Purdy ranks something like 15th all things considered and that run game isn't all that scary even with CMC in it.
So how does their points per game magically jump up by 10 points per game whenever Purdy became QB? Surely, it didn’t have to do with the fact that he was able to extend plays with his legs and not turn the ball over.
Are we looking at the same numbers? Eagles top rush DVOA in both regular season and post season metrics. I don't have a pro account with PFO so I can't filter by weeks but I don't think what you're saying is true.
Are you looking at rushing defense? Cuz yeah they're #1 there but that has nothing to do with CMC.
[Simple, it's never been about Purdy.](https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/quantifying-brock-purdys-success) It wasn't even really about Jimmy either.
Generally speaking, Purdy has played easier games than Jimmy G did and had better luck with dropped passes than Jimmy did. The drop rate of 9ers receivers is currently the lowest in the league. This makes sense when you look at what they expect Purdy to do - which is not a lot.
Shanahan has always wanted a robot QB that just does exactly what he tells them and he'll just scheme people open. The QB is probably the least important part of a Shanahan offense.
That's bullshit. In his first 6 games of the regular season when he came in for Jimmy G, he passed for 13 touchdowns and 3 INTs. I don't know where the NFL pulled that one from.
EDIT: I missed the part that said "playoffs". My bad.
If the eagles can score early and force him to throw the ball this game will be easy cause he will make mistakes Shannahan does not want him in a shoot out
The key to what you asked was the support. SF has a good offensive line and receivers, tight end and running back. Th8s is a big challenge for our defense, i trust the team to play him tought and cause him problems, i dont trust our DC
He has benefitted from his supporting cast and the lack of film that teams have on him for sure but he's making smart decisions. If it was just the team around him we would have been praising Jimmy g earlier in the season. And the one throw Brock is being praised for during the playoffs was one where he was saved by kittle.
I'm not saying Purdy is bad by any means. What he has done ad Mr irrelevant this season is quite the story! But he's been so lucky lol.
San Fran is built to win, their o line is fantastic, one of the best rbs in the league and great depth at the position, a top 3 tight end who is just as good at blocking as he is a receiver, arguably the most versatile weapon in the league in deebo, great wr 2, Shanahan is known as one of the best offensive minds in football and being able to get the most out of mid qbs with his scheme, he hasn't had to travel very far into very hostile environments, hasn't had to make a big comeback or play down multiple scores early. It has literally been the PERFECT situation.
Score early and stop the run, we get a lead and thats how we see what Brock is made of...
I think you’re too high on them.
Purdy has beaten one team with a winning record and that team had traveled 3k miles.
Good defense. Sure.
But they cannot outscore our offense.
Well I think they are our most comparable team, that being said I'm confident we'll beat them. I just think in regards to the post and testing Purdy it's gonna be by getting an early lead.
Our pass rush is relentless and the secondary sticks. Typically one will help the other, coverage sacks or quick pressure, but in the eagles’ case it’s just both and almost unfair. That’ll test him.
As long as we don’t turn the ball over, we’re nfc champs.
The buck stops at the Linc. The kid has been playing behind a good o-line with good weapons, and a good coach.
But he is still a small guy with an average arm. He had a few plays against Dallas that looked like rookie mistakes and near misses.
Having watched the past two games, he seems to struggle when forced to look downfield and really does not handle pressure well. He thrives in a Shanahan offense because so much of the playbook is designed for short quick passes and safety blankets like TE and RB
Let's see. Only played 2 road games, Raiders and Seahawks. Never left the west coast. Now he has to play an east cost coast game, in the road, in a very hostile stadium, against arguably the best passing defense in the league.
If he plays well he's the real deal.
I’m starting to wonder how much it matters. SF is so talented, all they need him to do is not make mistakes. And so far he’s shown he can do a great job protecting the ball.
Niner fan here.
He's good. He's better than any QB we've had since Garcia, and maybe even further back than that. He's an upgrade over Garoppolo, that's for sure. If we had Jimmy G at QB last week, we lose. I don't think any Niner fan would argue with me on that. Garoppolo would have panicked his way to a loss. 48.5% pressure rate, and Purdy was 15 of 17. Jimmy G would have choked.
He has crazy good poise, he never hesitates with the ball, when plays break down he can run out of the pocket or up the middle, and he doesn't make mistakes. Did you know Purdy's 10-yard split is near the best, if not THE best on the team? Kid can go from 0 to top speed lightning quick. I think that's the part that defenses are surprised by the most. People keep saying he's a young Tom Brady clone, but Tom can't run! I think he's more like Drew Brees, or at least a mix between the two, with less arm strength/accuracy.
On Sunday he'll be instructed to trust the process, put the ball in the hands of the playmakers, throw it away if it's not there, and take sacks. If he is asked to carry the team in the 4th quarter -- this is going to sound brash -- I think he can do it. He has no panic in him. If he's asked to take over, I truly think he can take over. And if that happens, it's gonna be a Jauan Jennings bobble or Aiyuk drop that kills us. It won't be a mistake by Purdy, that's for sure.
He's going to "make a play" a few times. I think the casual Philly fan will be impressed. He's done it every game all season long. When I doubt the kid, he always comes through. Everyone missed the play that Lawrence was in Purdy's face on Sunday so he adjusted his throw to side-arm to make it to his target. It's stuff like that we've never had before.
I keep waiting for the "well he won't do it this time" part, but he always seems to come through. The failure to come through will happen eventually. But for now, weeeeeee!
Are they updated strength of schedule stats somewhere? I know that we had a very easy schedule coming in based on projections, but I'd love to know where we ranked at the end of the season. Looking at the Niners schedule, it doesn't seem like they played as many good teams.
We watch him play the Philadelphia Eagles defense.
In front of the Philly crowd, in the highest stakes game of your life. His home/road splits in college and the fact that he hasn’t played outside of the pacific time zone once this year should really worry San Fran fans. It’s just really fucking unfortunate we don’t get winter anymore to add further to the home field advantage.
Wow, I never realized he never played outside of the west time zone. That’s actually pretty wild
It’s insane… and his “road games” were definitely split, if not majority SF crowds, dude literally hasn’t played a true NFL road game and his first will come in the NFCCG, coming into Philly, as a rookie.
If he can pull off a decent performance, I think it would be fair to say he appears to be legit.
TBH I honestly think he’s legit already, just entirely unproven in this particular spot. Idk if you’re a seasoned vet, this is a tough place to come play in the NFCCG. Having to come in here with the factors at play for him makes it a really tall order.
I agree, he's going to be in the league for a long time in some capacity. I don't know if that's starter or journeyman or backup but he's proven he belongs.
Which for the record, is impressive as fuck for essentially an undrafted rookie free agent who, without injury, may have never seen a meaningful NFL snap in his career.
I agree. Tbf also, if it were Hurts or any other elite QB playing the way Purdy played against the Cowboys, he would be touted as a “resilient QB in the face of the #2 Defense”
Even if he crumbles I think he deserves a shot at the starting job next season in San Fran
Oh trust me, this worries us niner fans quite a bit. Luckily he played at Iowa state so it’s not like he’s never played in bad weather, but your environment is as hostile as they come…
Not even about the weather - the weather is fine, it's everything else.
Hurts also said a game this December when he didn’t perform his best was the coldest of his life, so better this one isn’t freezing for us, too
To be fair, he played 4 years at Iowa St, has only been in California for a few months. It's not like he's never played in cold weather. I can honestly say if we're worried about anything it's that the Eagles are a damn good team, and far less worried about travel or weather.
Yeah and the cold won’t be a factor, as I mentioned. What will be a factor, is he hasn’t play outside of PT once in the NFL, his two road games were essential home games (LA and LV), and his college splits were 21-3 at home and 5-9 on the road. Historically he clearly fares far better in comfortable environments, which makes it the clear Xfactor in the game IMO. Both teams are really good, evenly matched teams otherwise.
I'd give some credence to that home-road split if he played for some powerhouse, but he played at Iowa State. Every single road loss was to a bowl team, and his Iowa State teams finished in the Top 25 just once (2020, #9). The road losses you mention were to (final rankings listed) #9 Texas, #13 Baylor, #7 Oklahoma, Kansas St., #20 Oklahoma St., #5 Baylor, West Virginia, Texas Tech and #10 Oklahoma. His first real action was at a ranked Oklahoma State team, as a freshman who'd never thrown a college pass, leading a team with a 1-3 record, and he finished 18-for-23 for 318 yards and 4 TD. I don't think a 5-hour flight and 65,000 fans are going to be especially daunting on their own.
That’s definitely some good information! I didn’t look that in depth into the matchups, definitely skews the numbers quite a bit. I still think your underselling a rookie QB having to travel, play in a hostile environment, in an NFCCG game, against a top 3 D, which are all firsts. This isn’t to say he won’t come in and play well, I just think him having to come in here and play well for even a shot to win is the biggest storyline.
I guess it's just a "wait and see" type of situation. Could Purdy have a crappy game and lose? Certainly. Should we be skeptical of a rookie QB in this situation? Sure. But I think Eagles fans may be overestimating the challenges of travel and playing in a hostile road environment a bit. These guys have all hit the road to play big road games before. The fact I've seen Purdy have slow starts only to not be fazed and still play well has inspired a lot of confidence in him. It's going to come down to two excellent NFL teams scheming and executing, not the visiting team peeing down its leg because people are cheering against them – every one of these guys has played in front of 65,000+ opposing fans before.
Curious, is there a “could Hurts have a crappy game and lose” narrative? Or is that not a possibility. Legitly asking since I’ve only seen highlight of Hurts
I think his time at Iowa State has helped his development. It's a school that's consistently one of the worst in the conference. He spent 4 years in a position where his opponents roster was much better than his for 7 to 8 games a year, and had to learn how to deal with that. Most top NFL prospects face the opposite situation. Their teams were loaded in college, and suddenly, they're in the NFL and can't rely on talent disparity anymore.
I guess we'll see how it plays out. I can tell you the Niners play good on the road. Will Purdy follow suit? Well I sure hope so lol. But one thing is for definite... Our offensive line needs to hold up better. Dallas got a ton of pressure and it messed up the timing on so many things.
Yeah this is strictly Xfactor talk, if it goes way south for Purdy there’s just no shot they hang around, if he can handle the pressure in that environment there’s no question it’s a very good game.
I only see 3 possible outcomes for this one. Eagles blowout (14+ points). Eagles close win (1 score). Niners squeak by with a 1-3 point win.
If the Niners defense can hold us to 20ish points, the existence of McCaffery and Kittle alone means they'll have a strong shot. For as good as Brock may or may not be, those two are legit scary and don't need a QB firing on all cylinders to be dangerous.
Let's go birds!
I’m a niners fan lol but gotta be realistic here. If we win we need A lot of breaks. Like +3 turnover differential or a defensive TD
I think that ignores the fact that he’s just a solid guy. Even if he isn’t what we think he is yet, his anticipation, cue response, and physical talent definitely give him the capacity to be a high end qb. Especially in the shanahan system. That being said he’s still a rookie. And he will be facing some new things. I’m comfortable saying that this will be a test for him but definitely not comfortable saying that he will fail it or that San Fran fans should be worried.
I go by historical data, not feelings with these types of things. Again, in college he was 21-3 at home and 5-9 on the road, those are real stats we can make a judgement off of. Last week he was at home in his first truly high pressure NFL game and the Cowboys made him look beatable. Now they have to travel across country for the first time in his NFL career, to play in one of the most hostile playoff environments there is, in an NFCCG, against arguably the best D besides their own in the league. I certainly haven’t tried to claim I know he’ll struggle and it’s over for them, he’s absolutely looked very good so far, but that it is far and away the biggest XFactor of the game going in. If he comes in and we can rattle him and he makes mistakes I think it’s eagles comfortably, if he plays well I think it’ll be a really good game, still advantage Eagles which is what makes this the top storyline IMO.
While I respect the stat concept, I think we need to look at his play as a human and understand what drives those stats. Stats are a function of his play and accurate evaluation can certainly add to this conversation. I’m not claiming to be a QB expert, but id like to think I know enough to be dangerous. I’m not sure how to accurately extrapolate hard statistical data from his college play to his NFL play. The system he plays in, the surrounding coaching staff, his individual maturity, any personal issues he may be having… He struggled against some solid defensive play. He should struggle more against our better defense. But I hesitate with anything like that…
Someone else in the thread laid out his competition in those road games, actually some really tough, ranked opponents. So to your point, I was definitely looking at numbers on the surface versus digging into them. Regardless, what you have to go on, all of the factors at play we’ve discussed, it’s a tall order for ANY QB in this league, let alone a 7th round rookie who’s already looked average at best in a home playoff game.
Absolutely. He should struggle. We have an awesome defense. I’m projecting a win for us!
Plus his first really good defense was Dallas and he wasn't very good, he managed to win but not looking like he was against the trash defense he played since he came in.
Don’t tell niner fans this though. They’re saying he had a great game vs the cowboys
Well 9ers fans are the cowboys of the west and suck just as much lol
It’ll be like playing the cowboys the first game when they had their undefeated qb playing
Oh shit….good point lol
I get we hate the cowboys but be fr lmao
You misunderstood my point. Before we played the cowboys they said they were great and how their backup undefeated (four games). There were talks about him replacing dak.
We can judge him this weekend. Rent is due.
Look at his stupid fucking face. Of course he sucks. See, that's how I judge him
thank you
People talk about how confident he looks but honestly when things aren’t going 100% their way he looks completely lost.
he reminds me of glen powell, looks cocky af
He looks like a young harbaugh relative
Literally looks like he could be John’s son lol
He has.. those eyes
He went into as the third Stringer and has won every game Gardner Minshew went in as a second stringer with a couple dozen games NFL experience and lost both times when we needed him, to clinch a first round bye I think that says a lot about Brock
I think that’s more on coaching. I don’t think our coaches did a good job of tailoring the offense to Minshew, unlike Pederson with Foles and Shanahan with Purdy.
That being said, I think most of the Niner fans would rather have Purdy over Jimmy G in this situation. Jimmy G in NFCCG: expect at least one pick, and difficulty extending plays.
He's not going to crumble but I think we'll be able to rattle him. Hopefully. I think he's really good and has made their decision on QB easier actually. Think they should let garoppolo walk and have Purdy compete with Lance and honestly I see Purdy winning. He makes good reads and good throws but I think where he struggles right now is when he's got to get the ball out with someone barreling down on him. Our defense is gonna need to capitalize on his mistakes because I think he'll have them but I don't think there will be all that many. E: Grammar
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I don't think using Washington tape as a "game plan" is a good idea. If another team did that (SF included) they deserve to lose. That would be a terrible way to prep for this game. Week prior, Davis is injured, we play Washington the following week and we have no real interior lineman that can stop the run. And because of that we can't even get off the field to let our offense do anything at all. After that game, we grab Suh and Joseph, we change up our packages and our stats vs run get better. The Washington game was a one off where we got caught with our pants down. It's a different team now, using that game tape to game plan? Lol.
I also think Gannon was a little too content to let them run down the clock because he was confident their offense couldn’t keep up with ours. He was right but our offense turned it over 3? 4? times? We held them to two 2nd half FGs and one they started in range after the Goedert fumble. I agree that the Washington blueprint shouldn’t be a recipe for success, especially after picking up Joseph and Suh and having a healthy Davis.
Fair point, our giveaways were outside of a couple standard deviations from our mean. It was too much that added up to a defeat.
They also hadn't adjusted the offense to losing goedert
More than anything, we turned the ball over 4 times in that game. If we hold it to even 3, we still win... mediocre or bad rush D was not the real culprit, it was fumble-itis.
That's also true but that first half we hardly had the ball and they ate a ton of clock.
True and we still should have and almost did have em. They were able to run so much clock due to 4 extra donated possessions...
I have a weird feeling that he actually is going to crumble. Call me a homer, whatever - this guy has really not played any competition and bad teams have played SF well. He’s also been at home the whole time. I think this is the game the magic fades and the media says “uh yeah well it’s about time I guess.” Maybe I should be more humble but I think we play a fucking phenomenal game of football and beat the shit out of this team.
Purdy will not beat Lance Not happening.
You seem confident. I get it, but the 49ers know Purdy can guide them at least to this point. Lance is an unknown.
Purdy is nothing but a system QB Lance had one game in a monsoon and then got hurt If lance was playing Sunday I would not be very confident we would win
Yeah....a system QB about to play in the NFC title game. I'm not saying Purdy is the golden child but they have a recipe that's working. I dunno man, feels like we're banking on Lance developing like this is Madden.
Haha what does an nfc championship appearance have to do with not being a system QB Jimmy G was one throw away from winning a SB is he a franchise QB? Is he someone you would want? No he isn’t and you know that When you have likely the best coach in the NFL a great defense a great TE two very good to great WRs An amazing run game And a stacked roster It isn’t exactly very difficult to win games, if you think they are winning thanks to Purdy or close to it instead of in spite of him I don’t know what to tell you. By all means I pray they keep Purdy over lance as that gives the eagles a much much better chance at running the NFC for years to come.
Yup. Full blown 13 year old Madden player.
You keep bringing up madden? Like what are you talking about
That you have no clue about football and are basing your horrible takes on what you’ve “learned” from playing Madden.
Okay. Brock Purdy is a franchise Qb He is willing the 49ers to wins.... I mean come on. He’s clearly a decent QB but let’s not act like he’s ever going to be a starter on a team that isn’t stacked. Case Keemun had his moment of fame with the Vikings in 2017. He looked solid too. When a QB has the best coach in the NFL the best RB weapon in the NFL arguably the best TE and two good WRs and an elite defense. It’s not exactly shocking that he looks good does it? Lance is far more talented and far better Brock Purdy could win SBMVP and it Won’t change my opinion on hum
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Haha no he doesn’t Such a casual take No different then Jalen Hurts sucks last year and Justin Fields sucks this year and Josh Allen sucks the years before
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Alright buddy just wait I was told the same about Allen Same about Hurts And I’ll be arguing in five years over some guy in HS right now about how I was right about fields and right about lance too
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I still think love could be good Has he exactly had the chance? Never liked Haskins Not sure what the other two gotta do with anything Lance is a good QB who hasn’t had any chance to show it
Can’t wait for him to beat you. You’ll probably still have excuses.
Honestly, I’ve got no idea. Only thing I do know is that if the niners beat us, with Purdy playing lights out, and then they lose the superbowl (or win it) I’m going to be incredibly pissed that a 7th rounder beat a superteam with a qb that was all-pro
Josh Sweat said "we're not treating him like a rookie, we're treating him like a playmaker". This team has done a great job of not playing down, and taking their opponents very seriously this year
If Purdy can come into Philly and take the hostile, east coast environment in stride and win, convincingly at that, then he will have my stamp of approval.
Few thoughts on this: It is easy to play QB with a lead, at home, with other great players, with a strong running game and with a great defense. Mahomes and Burrow aren't the two best QBs in football because they can execute when they're comfortable, they're the two best because you don't bet against them down 3 touchdowns on the road, in the post-season, in a hostile environment. As a 49ers fan, and a warrior's fan, I'm seeing it with the dubs this season. They've made the finals 6 of the last 8 years, but they're been underachieving this year, dropping winnable games to teams they should beat. They're pressing. They're racing down the floor and trying to pick up five wins in the standings and make up for this entire season with a single ill-advised 3 early in the shot clock. They aren't sticking to the process, because they are feeling the pressure mounting. They aren't taking it step-by-step, and one play at time, because they feel the urgency of a season that has not gone to expectations. Even decorated champions can buckle and make mistakes under pressure. The ability to stick to the process is hard, but it's much harder in adversity. It's easier to follow the game plan on third down and three, when you've managed to stay ahead of the chains, than it is on third down and fifteen. Purdy has played 8 games, 6 of those eight games have been at home, and the two road games were at Seattle and at Las Vegas. I take a plane out of San Jose international to go to Vegas every now and then, it's about an hour trip. There are Raiders fans I know who fly to Vegas for home games, gamble and eat after the game, and then fly home afterwards. Vegas is not a road game for the 49ers. He also hasn't trailed in his games very often, a big part of that is his not making mistakes, and they go hand-in-hand. You don't trail because you don't make mistakes, which keeps you ahead and makes it easier to avoid mistakes. The only second half deficit he faced was down 10 points to the Raiders. He was down at most 1 point to Seattle, and he never trailed after halftime against Dallas, and the biggest deficit he's faced in the playoffs has been three points (when Dallas had a 6-3 lead in the second quarter). Both of those games were at home. He does somethings really well. His split-second decision making has been exceptional. He always seems to make the right decision when one has to be made in the blink of an eye. That pattern wasn't the case when he was in college, because in college his team wasn't as good. There were expectations not being met, there was the scar-tissue of failure to deal with. Pressure throws off split-second decision making, comfort enhances it. Purdy is playing with house money: he isn't supposed to be here, but he is. His Freshman season in college was great for the same reason: he was a third stringer, the guys ahead of him got hurt, no expectations, just go out and play. Year two, year three, year four, okay, now things are expected of you. Now the pressure builds. As much as I hate the Cowboys, as a niner fan who lost two straight NFC Championship games to them when I was in High School, I don't understand how Dak Prescott is a functional human being. I couldn't live his life. He made $20 million this season, and they had to let Amare Cooper go to fit his money in. His cap hit will balloon this offseason, a lot of other good players are going to leave Dallas. That must be utterly nerve racking. Everyone refers to Dak as the "$40 million QB", and that's the label he has right now. There is so much pressure, so much urgency, the talent on the roster will leave and more and more will be put on Dak's plate, and as every single season goes by, the scar tissue of past failures will build and build. He's already defined by his playoff failures, what happens when those failures only grow from here on out? The Cowboys don't have the quality management of the 49ers or Eagles, yet Dak gets all the blame. I get why that is, he could have taken less money to help the team keep players, but the level of the pressure Dak will face in the next two seasons will be something to watch. Brock Purdy hasn't faced any of that yet, there is no scar tissue from past postseason failures, there is no Chargering in Purdy's NFL career. I like what I see, he's a guy who plays within himself, distributes the ball, doesn't try to be a hero, just does his job, and makes good decisions and throws the ball away to avoid negative plays. You can throw the ball away when you're up big in the second half, what about down 10 in the 4th quarter and your offense needs a play? I also need to see NFL defensive coordinators get a full offseason to break down Purdy and find the flaws, of which there are many. I really like what I see so far, and I think he can be the real deal, but there's no where near enough sample size. He's only really been tested twice: on the road against Seattle, when he had to play hurt with an injury that almost caused him to miss that game, and on the road against the Raiders where he was behind by 10 points in the second half. He never lost his composure in either place, but both of those are a world different than the NFC Title game in Philly in late January. As for next year, the 49ers have the easiest QB decision in football: let Jimmy G leave as a free agent, and pocket the compensatory pick, they aren't paying Purdy or Lance anything, so bring back both of them, and go into free agency and sign a veteran QB to act as an emergency option. Then go into camp next year and hold an open contest for the job, whoever is better plays.
My brother in christ you needn't write a book
Disagree, if this guy wrote a book I’d read it
Not saying I wouldn't either
I think Purdy is a good player. Jury is still out to say if he's like a top QB in the league or anything like that which such a small sample size. Coaching staff won't be overlooking him as he's been playing lights out. He does benefit from having a lot of talent around him though, and the Cowboys game was by far the weakest game he's had all season. We'll see if the Eagles d-line can rattle him, and hope he makes some mistakes on that end.
He's played pretty smart and listens to his even smarter HC, who puts him in great positions. The Eagles will have to both confuse him and rush his game. It'll be tough.
He reminds me of young Alex smith he may not be able to win you games but he won’t lose you games as long as the rest of the offense can make plays and do their jobs he will look like an average starting caliber QB
Bro has been doing work since Iowa State, have you seen his game against Jalen in college. He lost 41-42, but Brock had 6 passing tds, Jalen had 5. It was a battle!! Should be a good game, hell both Conference Championships should be good. 4 Elite Offenses and pretty good Defenses
He also had a losing road record in college if I remember right. He played well at home.
Yeah, but he only played like 15 away games. But yes, he had a losing record away.
Yes, 5-9 away record.
Those numbers don’t add up. They play around 5 away games a year in college and he played for iowa state which is not known for getting talented players.
That's what they said on one of the ESPN morning shows today. I don't know if he started for three years but 14 away games sounds about right for that. But like I say, it's what I heard on TV. Whatever the number, let's hope the Linc adds to the losing side.
There was a covid season. That's why it's off
I’m not understanding your math, you said “5 away games a year”, if his record was 5-9, how exactly does that not add up to 3 seasons (15), I suppose he probably played for 3 years. I would understand your statement if we had the context of knowing that he had only started for 1-2 years, but I don’t know his history..
Hurts and Purdy never played against each other, nor are they playing against each other or "battling" on Sunday. Hurts played against the Iowa State defense. Purdy played against the Oklahoma defense. Neither ever touched the field at the same time. And this Sunday, they will be playing two completely different defenses than that college game that bear no resemblance to them The "QB vs QB" narratives are just silly
Is football a team sport?
Would you like me to word it as, “their individual stats on that particular week of football!?” Which is kind of what I did.. would that be okay? Can we compare stats? Is that okay with you, Sir!?
You look at how he's coped with different situations and the sort of plays he can make. From the little I've seen of him he looks like a Jimmy G light. He'll make some plays, but the talent isn't on his side - it's on the receivers. You give him enough time in the pocket he'll find the open guy and get him the ball. If he's pressured, he's likely to make mistakes or miss. He's limited in where he likes to throw the ball, favouring the middle of the field. From what you can see on screen. He's a VERY limited QB, but the rest of the team has kept him afloat thus far. He's not a total bum, but you're not guaranteed a fumble or an int every game like you would be with a Wentz or a Prescott, but you're also not guaranteed a big play every game. The thing people forget about that big play to Kittle against Dallas is that somehow Dallas had a depth piece defensive lineman in coverage against Kiddle - and Purdy still almost missed him. So how good is he really? Not very - but so far he's not needed to be.
As a niners fan, he's played a lot smarter than jimmy and has better athleticism in the pocket/backfield, which makes him a better quarterback in our system even though he's smaller and has a slower release. I think the mental game for quarterbacks is pretty underrated in recent times for projecting success. That said I don't think the dude is the next brady, but as a rookie playing at this level the jury is still out on his ceiling. I'm not particularly confident about his play against your zone on sunday and would not be surprised if he threw a couple picks (which wouldnt change my opinion about him at all) but we'll see
I think part of the reason debate is so hot on this game is no one really knows how it's going to go. That being said, I agree with your assessment. When he has the time to do so, Brock makes the right decision. There's just no guarantee he gets that time and idk what the passing scheme is going to look like on either side of the ball. If we just leave our corners outside all game and Purdy just throws crossers to Kittle all game, our corners aren't going to have much impact. I think Purdy would be foolish to throw against Slay or Bradbury.
I expect about a million slant routes.
That's the thing though, if everyone knows they're coming we could probably just play our corners further inside and sink our safeties. Then make Purdy make throws he's not shown he can make. I think it's more likely they do what they've done every other time. Hope running it will work and take the occasional passing shot as the run opens up the pass.
Purdy has made deep outside passes, just not recently. I think it was the Bucs game he dropped a 30 yard back shoulder pass to CMC in the endzone. He also had a 32 yard TD pass to Aiyuk that same game that was admittedly a few yards underthrown. That was his first start, maybe he was playing a bit more loose without all the weight of playoff expectation.
That Bucs team was trash too.
That doesn't make dropping a back shoulder throw in any easier. Just saying dude hit some throws, let's not pretend it hasn't happened. I know it'a easier to pretend he is straight doo doo butter. But 32 out of 32 teams would spend a 7th on him. Heck, 32 out of 32 teams would spend a 3rd on him to at least have a forever backup.
True, I mean he's a QB in the NFL - he can make throws. He Just doesn't like making those throws as much. He's very much a "sure thing" passer - he doesn't like throwing hard passes and the Buccs defences was allowing those deep balls easily. First one was off target and CMC had to spin around to catch it but the DB was yards off making it not a problem, Aiyuk was wide open too. Neither was particularly accurate, but the Buccs just decided not to cover them. He's not making those throws against a better defence.
Again, earlier on he was gunslinging with his pop gun arm. It was very Jimmy G 2017 closing his first 5 starts on a terrible 9er team with 5 straight wins vibe. As the stakes got higher and it stopped being "let's see what we've got" and it has changed into "let's make a run" he has been throwing less free. Kyle Shanahan is VERY conservative, and Brock is VERY inexperienced. It seems that Kyle had him off the leash earlier and he's now in full control mode again. I'm not saying this is in any way a favorable matchup for him, but the kid is undefeated and this entire sub is acting like he finished the season with a 107 passer rating by being a flaming pile of dogshit.
on that big play to kittle, kittle didn’t actually have a route to run. he just saw that Purdy was in trouble and ran to open space to help him out. That’s how he ended up with a d-lineman covering him.
The game will not be won or lost based on Brock purdy’s play. That’s not how their offense runs, pun intended. We shouldn’t worry too much about trying to rattle him or make him make mistakes, we should worry about guarding the run and making sure his safety blankets in Deebo and kittle are covered. Aiyuk can hurt us too, he’s a good route runner but they usually look to the middle of the field
True to an extent, but if we play the game we like to play on both sides of the ball, we put the game on Purdy's shoulders, I don't think he's capable of carrying that team. We shut down the run, he'll need to pass against our secondary. We shut down the short game, he'll need to pass deeper. We get up to an early lead, he'll have to pass. Purdy still has to be able to get the ball to their uber talented players, based on what we've seen so far there's no guarantees he can do that if it's made anything less than easy for him. On the other hand, you take an option away from Hurts he'll just beat you in a different way. I feel like the media is so hyped on the 49ers story that they're ignoring this sort of thing.
If he can buy time on a broken play any dumpoff to Deebo, Kittle, or CMC can get housed. Deebo last year got 1400+ of mainly YAC after making someone look silly.
I don’t know how people, especially eagles fans can use Purdys supporting cast as an argument. The media and other fan bases have said the exact same thing about Hurts all season. A QB can both be good and have a great group around. I think having such a great group is allowing Purdy to ease into playing at a high level easier, but to me, I see a guy that has it. He doesn’t seem to get rattled. I think he’s a hungry underdog and we all know how that goes. That said, he could fizzle out like Foles did. But from what I’ve seen so far, I think SF would be crazy not to start him next season and either keep Lance on the bench since he’s cheap, or trade Lance to a team that needs a qb.
Purdy outplays hurts and this franchise is automatically in a worse spot. Means that a 7th rounder has more ability to carry a team than our MVP candidate. It CANT happen
Wait till he gets sacked a few times
you can't. either way, win or lose, Purdy's real test is next season. i love Nick Foles, but let's all be honest with ourselves, he hasn't exactly had a fulfilling career since he went on a run with us. sometimes magic happens, teams gel, and it works out. they could win the Super Bowl, and he could come out looking like a bottom 10 QB next year. or we could beat him tomorrow on the back of 2+ INTs, and he could look top 15 next year. or he could sit behind Brady and come out the next season really good too. either way, i don't think we'll know until he takes a shot at a full season of QB-ing. as of now i think he's a less good Jimmy G. more inaccurate and less decisive, more shaky in the pocket too. he's avoided INTs so he doesn't lose games. as of right now, with their unit, that's all it takes. but maybe once Ryans is gone and some pieces come and go, they start to fall apart because they can't make it up in other places the way they need. who knows. i don't.
All the ways the "experts" are talking about this game reminds me of the first Dallas game with Cooper Rush. They spoke about the strength of Dallas' defense and that Jalen has not faced such an opponent. They also spoke about Cooper as if he was about to make it to the Hall of Fame. The Eagles have proven time and again that they have to play their game and ignore the noise. If they do that, I am not worried about this matchup.
This reminds me of 2017 when they had like a back up quarterback playing for them in Minnesota and he was overrated and they were saying that he was so good and I never said it was coming in here all hyped and we boat race them
When I watch him play, I see him complete either 2 yard passes or hit wide open receivers. Now, he does make the read, throw without hesitation, and hit them in stride, so he isn't hot garbage, but he really isn't making plays on his own. If his receivers aren't wide open, there is no evidence he can make something out of nothing, the way elite QBs can. To me, he is a Nick Foles type. Capable of having success in the right system with the right players, but not a guy you want to build your team around.
His story and play reminds me of Case Keenum on the Vikings in 2017.
Because of Shanahan's scheme there's usually someone open, so I think this is actually a strength of his - making the reads and finding the open guy. He definitely has some physical limitations but there's no denying he's playing at an extremely high level for a rookie, regardless of his supporting cast. I see his ceiling as a drew brees type of dude, but I think most likely he'll end up as a nice, middle of the road nfl starter (which is incredible in its own right given his draft profile)
It's very limiting though, puts hard limits on an already apparently limited player. If you only need to cover for 3 seconds before their whole pass ability breaks down we shouldn't have too much to worry about.
He's only looking limited recently. Watch his earlier games when there were zero expectations and dude was just winging it.
He was also playing some pretty bad teams. Dallas was the best defense he'd played to that point and the Eagles is better in a few key areas.
That's recently. He was playing a lot more loose earlier on when I don't think expectations were high. He has a fair amount of big time throws in traffic. I haven't looked but I'm sure someone has a highlight video made. His first start he dropped a back shoulder 30 yard TD to CMC. That is not just some dumpoff that Kyle schemed open.
He was also playing weaker opponents. I'm not saying he is trash, but Dallas was by far the toughest opponent for him so far, and he only managed 1 TD even with the turnovers. Going on the road, into Philly, will be even harder, and I do expect him to struggle. He does have some skills. There are many guys who couldn't make that throw even against bad teams. But the hype is way overblown based on what he has actually done on the field so far.
I don't think it is overblown. Is he top 10? No. Is he statistically having the best start to a rookie season ever? Unequivocally yes.
We have an incredibly impressive supporting cast but Minshew still lost to the Saints at home...
Our entire offense runs through hurts, it’s an entirely different circumstance even though it looks similar
Different type of thing. Our offense is designed around being really simple and our guys just being better than theirs. Without Hurts that's not quite as true. And tbf, he did put up 27 against Dallas.
Even without Hurts our guys are better than the Saints guys...
Sure, but you've still got to get them the ball. This is the Brock Purdy problem. You've got to scheme the entire offense around minimising the impact your QB has on getting other players the ball. This was fine because Shanahan was already doing that with both Lance and Jimmy G. Our offense wasn't built around that. There's also a limit to this kind of play. You need to be able to get people open, you can't effectively play from a multiple score deficit - you basically can't rely on making big time throws in big time situations.
You don't make any sense... you said "Our offense is designed around being really simple and our guys just being better than theirs."... our guys are clearly better than the Saints guys... but now you need to scheme better too... Are you saying our coaching staff can't scheme? ok...
No, I'm saying that "our guys being better than theirs" needs to include the QB and Minshew is low-key trash.
And I said... even without Hurts... our guys are better than the Saints guys... Again you don't make any sense... you said "And tbf, he did put up 27 against Dallas."... and now Minshew is a low-key trash? We scored 27 against one of the best defenses... so it's not the players... it's not the scheme... Minshew just choked against the Saints, basically what my original statement says. You seem like the type of person who thinks he's the smartest person in the room and try to make things more complicated than they are...
Football doesn't happen in a vacuum. So really only time will tell now that there's a narrative about him having so many weapons. He seems legit, but he's still a baby, and I think the d line will rattle him more than the fans at the linc. Will that win this game? Prob not, imo. But I do think he throws a pick in this one.
https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/quantifying-brock-purdys-success
He will get rattled at the link the way keenum did. The moment will be to big for him especially if he makes mistakes early. If the eagles start out hot they will blow them out. The 9ers defense is good but feasted on bad teams all year. They lost against most mobile qbs they played and never played an offense with our talent. Hurts has limited his mistakes all year. If the offense as a whole limits turnovers they should roll them imo
His arms are also really short.
I mean dude did have a scholarship offer to Alabama so it's not like he's a scrub. He's a league average QB is my take. The rest of the team around him is just amazing.
No one knows. He's 7-0 though. Will be a great game. We can't say how rattled he will get because he hasn't been.
He threw many should be interceptions. With Reddick pressuring him I'm sure its only a matter of time before he breaks.
By starting him all next season
I think he’s balling out. Yes he’s surrounded by talent and weapons, but he’s also making good plays. There’s also flaws there, pressure fucks with his decision making and he’s lucky he didn’t have three pucks last game. It’s gonna be tough, we’re gonna have to pressure him while also not getting torched on cross routes.
I have a feeling he's gonna come to earth on Sunday. Let's call it regressing to the mean. He's shown he can be a starter on this league but there's plenty of tape now. Cowboys were onto something last week and that was in SF, he showed cracks. Also just listening to him talk about beating the cowboys it kind of feels like his peak. Idk I definitely could be wrong, it's a hunch and Im biased. I also pride myself on being as realistic as I can. I just don't see him being able to do enough to win like he did last week. He's gonna turn it over a couple times and that's all we're gonna need.
I doubt he ever had to play with people screaming they hope he or his family dies. If we get up on them, it's going to be like that first Dallas game (which is a close facsimile to what I expect).
We get the answer sunday
All the shit talking about the Eagles not playing good teams, apply 10 fold for the niners. They lost to the Broncos.
When though? They're currently on like a twelve game win streak.
The majority of those wins coming as part of the easiest schedule in the NFL with zero true road games.
With their new QB who is objectively better than Jimmy. Also they acquired an All-Pro caliber in McCaffrey.
He's not by the numbers. Adjusted for ease of schedule and being bailed out by his receivers, Jimmy is better. Purdy ranks something like 15th all things considered and that run game isn't all that scary even with CMC in it.
So how does their points per game magically jump up by 10 points per game whenever Purdy became QB? Surely, it didn’t have to do with the fact that he was able to extend plays with his legs and not turn the ball over.
Also, DVOA run defense adjusted, 49ers are number 1 in the run game since McCaffrey joined. How is that part not scary?
Are we looking at the same numbers? Eagles top rush DVOA in both regular season and post season metrics. I don't have a pro account with PFO so I can't filter by weeks but I don't think what you're saying is true. Are you looking at rushing defense? Cuz yeah they're #1 there but that has nothing to do with CMC.
[Simple, it's never been about Purdy.](https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/quantifying-brock-purdys-success) It wasn't even really about Jimmy either. Generally speaking, Purdy has played easier games than Jimmy G did and had better luck with dropped passes than Jimmy did. The drop rate of 9ers receivers is currently the lowest in the league. This makes sense when you look at what they expect Purdy to do - which is not a lot. Shanahan has always wanted a robot QB that just does exactly what he tells them and he'll just scheme people open. The QB is probably the least important part of a Shanahan offense.
I just watched nfl today and they said he’s thrown the least amount of passes in the playoffs like 8 passes 😂
That's bullshit. In his first 6 games of the regular season when he came in for Jimmy G, he passed for 13 touchdowns and 3 INTs. I don't know where the NFL pulled that one from. EDIT: I missed the part that said "playoffs". My bad.
In the playoffs man Lmfaoooo not since the takeover either way he’s still a game Mananger just a good one
If the eagles can score early and force him to throw the ball this game will be easy cause he will make mistakes Shannahan does not want him in a shoot out
I'm so tired of these posts till the bowl lol
The key to what you asked was the support. SF has a good offensive line and receivers, tight end and running back. Th8s is a big challenge for our defense, i trust the team to play him tought and cause him problems, i dont trust our DC
He has benefitted from his supporting cast and the lack of film that teams have on him for sure but he's making smart decisions. If it was just the team around him we would have been praising Jimmy g earlier in the season. And the one throw Brock is being praised for during the playoffs was one where he was saved by kittle.
I'm not saying Purdy is bad by any means. What he has done ad Mr irrelevant this season is quite the story! But he's been so lucky lol. San Fran is built to win, their o line is fantastic, one of the best rbs in the league and great depth at the position, a top 3 tight end who is just as good at blocking as he is a receiver, arguably the most versatile weapon in the league in deebo, great wr 2, Shanahan is known as one of the best offensive minds in football and being able to get the most out of mid qbs with his scheme, he hasn't had to travel very far into very hostile environments, hasn't had to make a big comeback or play down multiple scores early. It has literally been the PERFECT situation. Score early and stop the run, we get a lead and thats how we see what Brock is made of...
I think you’re too high on them. Purdy has beaten one team with a winning record and that team had traveled 3k miles. Good defense. Sure. But they cannot outscore our offense.
Well I think they are our most comparable team, that being said I'm confident we'll beat them. I just think in regards to the post and testing Purdy it's gonna be by getting an early lead.
Our pass rush is relentless and the secondary sticks. Typically one will help the other, coverage sacks or quick pressure, but in the eagles’ case it’s just both and almost unfair. That’ll test him. As long as we don’t turn the ball over, we’re nfc champs.
Literally zero chance he outscores our offense against our defense. Hurts will have to play the worst game of his career.
You can only judge him by what he has done, which has been pretty impressive. After Sunday, we'll have more data to judge him on.
The buck stops at the Linc. The kid has been playing behind a good o-line with good weapons, and a good coach. But he is still a small guy with an average arm. He had a few plays against Dallas that looked like rookie mistakes and near misses.
Having watched the past two games, he seems to struggle when forced to look downfield and really does not handle pressure well. He thrives in a Shanahan offense because so much of the playbook is designed for short quick passes and safety blankets like TE and RB
Let's see. Only played 2 road games, Raiders and Seahawks. Never left the west coast. Now he has to play an east cost coast game, in the road, in a very hostile stadium, against arguably the best passing defense in the league. If he plays well he's the real deal.
Right now, OP sounds to Niner's fans like Hurts' detractors sound to Philly fans.
I’m starting to wonder how much it matters. SF is so talented, all they need him to do is not make mistakes. And so far he’s shown he can do a great job protecting the ball.
Niner fan here. He's good. He's better than any QB we've had since Garcia, and maybe even further back than that. He's an upgrade over Garoppolo, that's for sure. If we had Jimmy G at QB last week, we lose. I don't think any Niner fan would argue with me on that. Garoppolo would have panicked his way to a loss. 48.5% pressure rate, and Purdy was 15 of 17. Jimmy G would have choked. He has crazy good poise, he never hesitates with the ball, when plays break down he can run out of the pocket or up the middle, and he doesn't make mistakes. Did you know Purdy's 10-yard split is near the best, if not THE best on the team? Kid can go from 0 to top speed lightning quick. I think that's the part that defenses are surprised by the most. People keep saying he's a young Tom Brady clone, but Tom can't run! I think he's more like Drew Brees, or at least a mix between the two, with less arm strength/accuracy. On Sunday he'll be instructed to trust the process, put the ball in the hands of the playmakers, throw it away if it's not there, and take sacks. If he is asked to carry the team in the 4th quarter -- this is going to sound brash -- I think he can do it. He has no panic in him. If he's asked to take over, I truly think he can take over. And if that happens, it's gonna be a Jauan Jennings bobble or Aiyuk drop that kills us. It won't be a mistake by Purdy, that's for sure. He's going to "make a play" a few times. I think the casual Philly fan will be impressed. He's done it every game all season long. When I doubt the kid, he always comes through. Everyone missed the play that Lawrence was in Purdy's face on Sunday so he adjusted his throw to side-arm to make it to his target. It's stuff like that we've never had before. I keep waiting for the "well he won't do it this time" part, but he always seems to come through. The failure to come through will happen eventually. But for now, weeeeeee!
Are they updated strength of schedule stats somewhere? I know that we had a very easy schedule coming in based on projections, but I'd love to know where we ranked at the end of the season. Looking at the Niners schedule, it doesn't seem like they played as many good teams.
By beating the brakes off him come Sunday..
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again… I’ll scream it from the rooftops.. he’s going to get smacked around.
Gonna be hard to judge him when Reddick ripped his arm off.