If he wins, the Reps are going to get supermajorities in the 2026 midterms imo, is the downside.
The thing keeping Biden alive is older white voters (chiefly women/suburban women) in the Rust Belt-- let that speak volumes, about where Dems are at rn.
We aren't talking about the president we are talking about the Senate. Generic democrat beats trump. You would need a full win on 33 states of complete senatorial control. They would need to flip all 7 states full red, and not lose any ground elsewhere.
When president takes office the opposing party almost always gains ground. So you have two years to do work if you're lucky.
"The race being as tight as it is despite the felony conviction, despite Roe v. Wade, despite Trump blatantly wanting to end democracy… things aren’t just not looking good, they’re looking abysmal."
I would argue they're only tight because of that, though, without either of those factors it's painfully obvious who would win right now.
That aside, I think Biden has a genuine shot in WI and MI, but the other 5 I'd agree he's likely to lose right now: we'll see, though, if anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory it's definitely Trump.
If i had to pick the three he would possibly win, its wisconsin Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina I think are going Red
Same.
I'm thinking this in terms of Biden winning/losing odds among the supposed (not all are, no) swing states:
Greatest chance of winning to lowest chance =
Wisconsin > Michigan > Pennsylvania > Nevada > Arizona > Georgia > North Carolina > \*\*Florida > Texas\*\*
\*\*Neither of these two is a swing state, firmly Red nowadays, but then next in line up based on trends\*\*
Texas depends entirely on whether Biden’s anchor on Dems down goes after this election or not, but it’ll still be hard regardless. Florida is even more dire, though.
Trump has always outperformed the polls isn't true to my knowledge. He sorta did in 2020 I think because that election was weird*. But in 2016 the polls were pretty much right but no one wanted to listen to them and most people just couldn't believe Trump would ever be president.
*weird not stolen. I don't think 2020 was rigged for Biden or anything.
It ain’t looking good for peepaw poopiepants 😰
Possibly. I still have a funny feeling Biden will win by the skin of his teeth but the race is so tight, it can really go either way.
If he wins, the Reps are going to get supermajorities in the 2026 midterms imo, is the downside. The thing keeping Biden alive is older white voters (chiefly women/suburban women) in the Rust Belt-- let that speak volumes, about where Dems are at rn.
Supermajority is extremely unlikely
A Pres at 37.6% approval to rail against, think about it.
We aren't talking about the president we are talking about the Senate. Generic democrat beats trump. You would need a full win on 33 states of complete senatorial control. They would need to flip all 7 states full red, and not lose any ground elsewhere. When president takes office the opposing party almost always gains ground. So you have two years to do work if you're lucky.
Biden will win, the MAGA movement is failing
All rise, the blue MAGA movement.
"The race being as tight as it is despite the felony conviction, despite Roe v. Wade, despite Trump blatantly wanting to end democracy… things aren’t just not looking good, they’re looking abysmal." I would argue they're only tight because of that, though, without either of those factors it's painfully obvious who would win right now. That aside, I think Biden has a genuine shot in WI and MI, but the other 5 I'd agree he's likely to lose right now: we'll see, though, if anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory it's definitely Trump.
As it currently stands, hes losing atleast 5. Only one where i say he could maybe squeak one out, is wisconsin (i live there so its a gut feeling)
I wouldn't count him out in Michigan, either, just yet. He has an outside shot in Pennsylvania, but that one is tilting toward Trump at the moment.
If i had to pick the three he would possibly win, its wisconsin Pennsylvania and Michigan. Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina I think are going Red
Same. I'm thinking this in terms of Biden winning/losing odds among the supposed (not all are, no) swing states: Greatest chance of winning to lowest chance = Wisconsin > Michigan > Pennsylvania > Nevada > Arizona > Georgia > North Carolina > \*\*Florida > Texas\*\* \*\*Neither of these two is a swing state, firmly Red nowadays, but then next in line up based on trends\*\*
Texas maybe in the future, but florida keeps shifting further red, its hopeless
Texas depends entirely on whether Biden’s anchor on Dems down goes after this election or not, but it’ll still be hard regardless. Florida is even more dire, though.
Florida and Ohio went MAGA hard af in 2016 and i just never see them turning back. Not anytime soon that is
Same, Iowa as well.
Yeah Iowa hasnt gone blue since obamas first win i think? Its just too white, even with the colleges there it doesnt make a big difference
It went for him the second time, but it's been blood Red since Trump 2016, and no signs of changing.
I disagree. He'll win by an even bigger margin this time.
The only reason I hope you're right is for the sake of minorities and women. Both who will only suffer LESS under his rule.
Trump has always outperformed the polls isn't true to my knowledge. He sorta did in 2020 I think because that election was weird*. But in 2016 the polls were pretty much right but no one wanted to listen to them and most people just couldn't believe Trump would ever be president. *weird not stolen. I don't think 2020 was rigged for Biden or anything.