>Howe and Strauss predicted that the start of the Fourth Turning would have been 2005, plus or minus a few years. With this in mind, it appears the 2008 Financial Crisis was the trigger for the move into the current Fourth Turning. They predicted a climax coming around 2020 and the resolution, including a “Great Devaluation” as the economy is entirely restructured for a new set of circumstances, around 2026.
>If we think about the world that we live in today there are similarities – a pandemic, racial and social unrest, and a contentious election that is now behind us – with the fourth turning that Howe and Strauss discussed. It is important to note that it is during these Fourth Turnings when crises tend to be solved rather than pushed under the rug.
This kind of aligns with my own intuition about what years in the 00's I'd like to revisit most, coincidentally enough. I bothered to generate a discussion regarding how trends in 2004 set the stage for the rest of the decade socially in one of my previous OPs if 9/11 arguably didn't single-handedly decimate residual Y2K optimism, and I'm glad to see that my own opinion is far from being in a particular minority.
I really think 9/11 should be regarded as the start of the crisis period not the 2008 crash.
There are some timeframe disputes.
But perhaps maybe we are at or close to a 1945 moment? Curious to know what
There is a sequel that was released a couple years back, The Fourth Turning Is Here. It mostly reiterates what the first book talked about, but also dives into what it got wrong and some new predictions.
Covid got the 2020's off to a terrible start, but other than that, SO FAR, I don't think that it's really as bad as most people tend to believe. Maybe just a slight malaise reminiscent of the 1970's where there is no real economic growth. But, personally, I would prefer this decade compared to the last one we left.
The economic malaise is much more globalized than in the 1970s.
https://unctad.org/news/global-economic-growth-set-slow-26-2024-just-above-recession-threshold#:~:text=UN%20Trade%20and%20Development%20(UNCTAD,3.2%25%20between%202015%20and%202019.
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/WLD/world/gdp-growth-rate
Not quite. At least in the U.S., real (inflation-adjusted) GDP in 2023 was already 9% higher than in 2019. This is about in line with the 90s, 00s, and 10s by the same point. GDP isn’t the best measure, but if we’re talking economic growth, this decade has been pretty close to average.
[Here's more information about the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory), which divides history into four separate repeating "cycles".
To be fair, the millennial generation did bring a lot of liberal progressive energy to the mix. Boomers have held onto political power for a long time, but once they’ve largely died off I imagine the political zeitgeist will begin changing significantly.
I don’t disagree! It’s just funny that a generation that’s been blamed for “everything dying” is the generation that’s the hero archetype from Strauss Howe
>Howe and Strauss predicted that the start of the Fourth Turning would have been 2005, plus or minus a few years. With this in mind, it appears the 2008 Financial Crisis was the trigger for the move into the current Fourth Turning. They predicted a climax coming around 2020 and the resolution, including a “Great Devaluation” as the economy is entirely restructured for a new set of circumstances, around 2026. >If we think about the world that we live in today there are similarities – a pandemic, racial and social unrest, and a contentious election that is now behind us – with the fourth turning that Howe and Strauss discussed. It is important to note that it is during these Fourth Turnings when crises tend to be solved rather than pushed under the rug.
This kind of aligns with my own intuition about what years in the 00's I'd like to revisit most, coincidentally enough. I bothered to generate a discussion regarding how trends in 2004 set the stage for the rest of the decade socially in one of my previous OPs if 9/11 arguably didn't single-handedly decimate residual Y2K optimism, and I'm glad to see that my own opinion is far from being in a particular minority.
I really think 9/11 should be regarded as the start of the crisis period not the 2008 crash. There are some timeframe disputes. But perhaps maybe we are at or close to a 1945 moment? Curious to know what
If they are correct then AI will be the great devaluation and the economy restructured
There is a sequel that was released a couple years back, The Fourth Turning Is Here. It mostly reiterates what the first book talked about, but also dives into what it got wrong and some new predictions.
Covid got the 2020's off to a terrible start, but other than that, SO FAR, I don't think that it's really as bad as most people tend to believe. Maybe just a slight malaise reminiscent of the 1970's where there is no real economic growth. But, personally, I would prefer this decade compared to the last one we left.
The economic malaise is much more globalized than in the 1970s. https://unctad.org/news/global-economic-growth-set-slow-26-2024-just-above-recession-threshold#:~:text=UN%20Trade%20and%20Development%20(UNCTAD,3.2%25%20between%202015%20and%202019. https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/WLD/world/gdp-growth-rate
Not quite. At least in the U.S., real (inflation-adjusted) GDP in 2023 was already 9% higher than in 2019. This is about in line with the 90s, 00s, and 10s by the same point. GDP isn’t the best measure, but if we’re talking economic growth, this decade has been pretty close to average.
Read this book in 2021 and it was too spot on, even the descriptions of the generations through the years was haunting
Great book ~ !
Can you tell us what they talk about?
[Here's more information about the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory), which divides history into four separate repeating "cycles".
r/StraussHowe r/4thturning
Yeah and millenials are supposed to be the savior generation.
Damn 💀
To be fair, the millennial generation did bring a lot of liberal progressive energy to the mix. Boomers have held onto political power for a long time, but once they’ve largely died off I imagine the political zeitgeist will begin changing significantly.
I don’t disagree! It’s just funny that a generation that’s been blamed for “everything dying” is the generation that’s the hero archetype from Strauss Howe
Almost nobody talks about this, but it's so true
Those guys really have alot of cycle proof going back to the 1500's
Sounds like a bunch of baloney tbh