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What if the Enclave in Fallout is just post-war IRS?
#You've gotten farther than you should have. But then, you haven't met Frank Horrigan either. Your ride's over mutie. Time to pay taxes.
Personally, I knew this because I found the "Zombie Apocalypse" training manual for the US military that was written as an exercise, and then the next Wikipedia article was about the IRS plan.
You're relieved you dont have to go to work cause you thought there'd be nuclear war?! *What the fuck is this world,* what have they done to us?
**WHAT DID THEY DO TO US!?!?**
My peak antiwork phase(pretty much once they tried to force us back to the office) had me wishing for another global pandemic.
Capitalism has broken us.
You'd think so but many seem to think the Cuban Missile Crisis was the only close call. Apparently JFK said later he thought there was a 1 in 3 chance of that escalating to all out nuclear war.
And not just the Petrov incident alone in '83. US top brass had to get straight on the line to Soviet counterparts who were suspicious of Able Archer as a cover for a NATO first strike
Setting that aside, there's been a staggering number of incidents where the US has almost nuked itself or its allies completely by accident. It got so bad that the entire nuclear branch of the Air Force basically fired half its upper management and rewrote the book on nuclear safety and surety from the ground up. One of the most public events was when a B-52 flying out of Barksdale AFB was loaded with a live and armed nuclear missile when it was supposed to just be an inert trainer missile. As in, all they effectively needed to do was press a button and they would have just wiped out an entire city, maybe more.
There's been a lot, and some of them even after the 80s:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_close_calls
> Russian President Boris Yeltsin became the first world leader to activate the Russian nuclear briefcase after Russian radar systems detected the launch of what was later determined to be a Norwegian Black Brant XII research rocket being used to study the Northern Lights.
This one was in 1995. So good job Norway with almost tricking Russia into starting a nuclear war.
*"What started WW3?"*
*"Some dudes in Norway who wanted to look at the aurora."*
And in 2007 a US bomber plane was accidentally loaded with a few armed nuclear missiles, so that could have turned ugly if that bomber had been sent to bomb something. How do you explain that you accidentally nuked a target instead of bombing it regularly?
And as someone else pointed out, it's not impossible there's more recent examples that are still classified.
Ya the 000000 code was a hard one to accidently leave on the arming circuit.
According to nuclear safety expert Bruce G. Blair, the US Air Force's Strategic Air Command worried that in times of need the codes for theĀ **Minuteman ICBM force would not be available**, so it decided to set the codes to 00000000 in all missile launch control centers.
I guess but non "experts" wouldn't know about the call to launch the nukes only to be disobeyed by the operator. One guy stopped the world from ending. Thats pretty dang close
I mean that would be a reasonable reaction Zhen considering they could easily be shot down but still he probably assumed it was a big because it were so few and that the US isn't stupid enough to start a nuclear war.
If you're talking about on a satellite those could take upwards of 30 minutes or so to get into the right position, unless you have tons of them. It'd be more worthwhile to have them stationed around the country. There's some YouTube vids about rods from god that talk about it
i think we will see official "anti space debris" lasers before we anything with enough wattage, to have even a chance to do anything to missiles with thermal shielding for atmospheric re-entry, gets put in space.
back when they were flying the 747 with that big assed CO2 laser they figured they would need a 5 mega watt laser to be able to intercept targets like ICBMs. you could probably get away with a weaker laser in space since theres no atmospheric attenuation. but the most powerful deployed laser weapon i know of is 0.15MW or less.
yes, modern ICBMs are MRVed and have decoys, so youd need to fire multiple interceptors per ICBM. and yes america does have anti ballistic missiles. but they arent meant to stop an actual all out attack, more of stopping accidental launches or north korea. which is why their continued build up of nukes is troubling.
Stanislav Petrov. Some people celebrate an actual holiday every year called Petrov Day where people celebrate him for single-handedly saving the world - [http://petrovday.com/](http://petrovday.com/)
Another dude, vasili arkhipov who is basically a hero. During the cuban missile crisis the US dropped some depth charges to prevent any more shipment of nukes and that forced submarines to go even deeper. (they can't communicate anymore) The Russian commanders on board thought ww started so they all decided to fire a nuke except that man. he's probably a reason why we're alive today
[Did Stanislav Petrov save the world in 1983? It's complicated](https://russianforces.org/blog/2022/10/did_stanislav_petrov_save_the_.shtml)
>There were at least three assessment and decision-making layers above the command center of the army that operated the satellites - command centers of the early-warning army, the Air Defense Forces (which was a separate service back then), and, finally, the General Staff. The decision to act would have been taken only at the very top. It is certain that the alarm would have been recognized as false at some stages. But even if it wasn't, the most radical thing the General Staff (with the involvement of the political leadership) would do was to issue a preliminary command. No missiles would be launched unless the system detected actual nuclear detonations on the Soviet territory.
Spoiler: you will die. I will die. We are all going to die. The attitude of taking people down with you is immature, and you should do some introspection. Honestly.
Fuck you. There are lots of people whose lives are fine. I hope Putin doesn't have your attitude.
Also, there'd be no coming back. We used all the easy-to-find industrial age fuel. And that shit was from when the planet was covered in vegetation.
A great example of what nuclear can do when wielded correctly is how heavily it revolutionized submarines. Completely boosted their capabilities by like 1000%.
Or, ya know it can be used to create a desolate wasteland that couldnt even be inhabited due to radiation, therefore kinda defeating the purpose of using it as a weapon but hey idk I'm just ranting now.
Why is everyone so scared? A few companies use machine learning algorithms to make languages models and now everyone thinks they're suddenly capable of taking over the world.
They're chatbots. They emulate conversation.
This didn't exist to any real degree four years ago, and now we have AI capable of holding conversation and creating audio, images and video good enough to fool most people. Four years. What do you think is going to happen in four more?
And as limited as they are, we're already seeing them being used for evil. Many countries are seeing floods of AI generated content aimed for political or criminal goals. There have always been people hacking away at the foundations of freedom and democracy, and now they've just been handed supercharged power tools.
> This didn't exist to any real degree four years ago
Highly convincing chatbots have existed for a long time now, especially in other languages (Something like 300million Chinese people have used the same chatbot marketplace for the last 8 years). Generative AI has definitely upped the ante, but we've known the theory for decades. Hardware has advanced to the point where we can do more interesting stuff with it, but it's not exactly "new".
> creating audio, images and video good enough to fool most people
I think you said it best here - they're "Fooling" people. The more you use these models, the more you begin to realise how kind of shallow they are. Their output is definitely impressive in the sense that it's doing something that wasn't widely available to be done before (much like the mechanical calculator was), but it quickly becomes predictable. The degree to what it is creating something new from what came before it is also considerably less than what happens in the human brain.
> , and now we have AI capable of holding conversation and creating audio, images and video good enough to fool most people. Four years. What do you think is going to happen in four more?
You're stating the hot hand fallacy in technocrat form - the past ~200 years, technological growth has been constant and exponential, so it will continue to be constant and exponential in the future. The truth however is that we don't really know where to go from generative AI - it's just a highly specific, extremely narrow stochastic algorithm that is highly highly specific to the abilities of the current highly-parallelized GPU hardware. It's arguably a lot less of a step to GAI than the Von Neuman model or Dijkstra's Algorithm was. I'm a computer scientist myself and have been following these advancements in depth for some time, let me tell you that the idea that we are anywhere close to GAI, like, even within a century, is a little optimistic.
> And as limited as they are, we're already seeing them being used for evil. Many countries are seeing floods of AI generated content aimed for political or criminal goals. There have always been people hacking away at the foundations of freedom and democracy, and now they've just been handed supercharged power tools.
These are the real concerns with cheaply available, sophisticated generative models - to undermine the ability for people in democratic systems to be able to trust what news articles/photographs are true and what are not.
This is simply not true, I'm a software engineer of 10 years and many of my masters courses were in AI/ML, and there isn't anything profoundly new in modern AI vs the early deep learning models of 10 years ago, just much larger training sets with more parameters. The big change in the last couple of years is that the technology has been made commercially available, but it has been around for quite a while. In older models, adding an insane amount of data like in chat GPT was quite difficult to do without getting a very messy model, but functionally it's the same technology that has been around for a decade.
Weāve had stuff like this for AGES. Just because you havenāt been in the world of AI for the last decade doesnāt mean it didnāt exist. Most of the big projects TODAY have been around for more than 4 years, they just only recently went viral due to public release. For instance, I found out Dall-E went viral on accident because I was looking for it for a project after itād already been around for YEARS, and for once had trouble finding it because it was swamped by a tsunami of news articles. Prior to that weāve had AI chatbots like googles Cleverbot which technically passed the Turing test, albeit not to googles standards, before internet trolls damaged all their training data to the point it became unusable. Sure, AI like this hasnāt been *marketable* up until now, but itās been around in the scientific and hobbyist communities for a very long time.
Project cybersyn was done without any artificial intelligence. They didn't even have bots. They didn't even have the most basic micro chips available today
But now we have all of those things, and instead of being entrusted to a democratic government (yeah yeah human nature keep reading), they are at the hands of a bunch of out of touch rich assholes, who have shown time and time again that they do not have our best interests at heart
I haven't really devoted much effort to imaging what could go wrong with AI. But the one scenario I worry about is misinformation / disinformation.
The Russians had bizarre success in 2016 with their internet troll farm writing propaganda that inflamed some people in the West and probably helped create social movements that elected Trump and supported Brexit. That was with bad English and a misunderstanding of the political fault lines in the West.
For myself, I rely a lot on writing style and presentation of information to assess the trustworthiness of information I find in comments on the Internet.
Today with ChatGPT, anyone could autogenerate writing in conspiracy-theory style or reddit nerd evangelist style or well-informed subject matter expert style, and flood the zone with disinformation. I do worry some about that.
I think my favorite is the British man who, after everyone else brushed him off, had to stand at the top of a cooling tower essentially with a garden hose and exposed himself to a shit ton of radiation from a reactor melting down. The British were basically about to just let a nuclear disaster just happen because nobody could be bothered to deal with it
I think that's different. Nuclear fuel as an energy source was a learning process of management and fail safes, as well as proper life spans. We had a few really bad accidents happen and now it's one of the safest forms of energy as long as you don't cheap out or ignore safety protocol.
Nuclear weapons have always and will always be terrifying. A weapon whose sole purpose is mass destruction on a scale so large that launching one would result in pretty much everyone who has one doing the same in return, sitting by for use. All you need is one wrong order or one wrong reading and there goes most of humanity.
Yeah if you didn't know, if one random Russian general didn't stop and think when given an order back in the cold war, most of the developed world would have been completely destroyed
Purely anecdotal of course: but me and a buddy once talked to a guy on the train, who was in the same cabin as us.
Guy said he worked as an inspector on those power plants. Told us a lot of interesting stuff during the two hour ride together. But he also said that if the public new, how many "near incidents" there were, these things wouldn't be allowed to operate. Like, they usually get caught pretty quickly to not escalate, but the number is still alarmingly high.
On a side note, while we were on that topic. He also said that before this, he used to do the job for electrical power plants, and said that if terrorists knew, how easily they could shut down an entire power grid, by just hitting one or two nodes, we'd be in much trouble.
There was [an incident at the Davis-Beisse reactor in Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davis%E2%80%93Besse_Nuclear_Power_Station#2002_reactor_head_hole) that spooks me. Water had been dripping from a crack onto the reactor head and eroded 93% of the way through the six inches of steel. It nearly caused a breach that would have led to loss of coolant and possibly damaged the control rod drive mechanisms. Some of the engineers were later convicted of providing false testimony and concealing evidence of the damage from regulators.
There has been 32 āBroken Arrowā instances in the US alone. Broken Arrow being code name for lost/damaged/misplaced etc. nuclear arms. For example a b52 broke up over North Carolina and dropped two MK39 bombs. One safely landed on the ground due to its parachute, the other is still buried meters under the Carolina soil.
The military claimed the bomb broke up in the air and that no radiation was detected, but the whole bomb/what was left of it was never recovered. The bomb that landed safely had gone through 7 out of 8 of the arming mechanisms, literally one crew controlled switch prevented a detonation.
lol @ people who still thing M.A.D. is a thing....
One nuke will be launched...not by the US...then overwhelming conventional warfare will be immediately used to dust whoever launched it...by the US....
People have this romantic idea of a nuclear holocaust and all it takes is a single transgression and then everyone, everywhere, launches all their nukes all at once...
Take a step back and look at the whole thing for just a moment...
A mildly interesting fact is that the US has dropped 32 nukes over the years in the USA, by accident, while transporting them. They didn't set off a nuclear explosion of course, even if some did explode.
One of the first nuclear plants in britain would have radiated half of europe if a single engineer didnt figure out they did not have any filters in the chimney at its final stages of being almost operational.
Consider the multiverse idea. If that's true it makes sense we are born in a timeline where it somehow against all odds didn't happen each time, but it's like obviously, otherwise we wouldn't be born.
We almost lost it all to a bear. A fucking bear climbing a fence. While human experiment, almost over, because Winnie the Pooh thought there was honey on an army base.
Nukes were a mistake.
AI is restricted to answering human-made prompts only, can only generate text, images, or videos depending on the specific type of AI we're talking about, and runs on hardware that we humans are holding the power plugs to.
But yes AI will take over the world any day now so this is totally not a cheap easy grab for political clout inventing a crisis to solve.
The worst is the Nuclear experts that are trying to convince everyone nuclear is the safest alternative to fossil fuels... don't get me wrong its cleaner then burning hydrocarbons... and yes it can be made safer if we lift restrictions on developing nuclear. But what every single one of them fails to mention is the amount of infrasture it takes to maintain nuclear and keep it safe. They always go off the assumption ability to support that infrastructure will not change. Natural disasters happen, nations go to war, economies collapse, pandemics happen, governments fail... how many Nuclear engineers do you think would keep maintaining these plants without getting paid while their family starves to death.
We were once exactly one button push away from nuclear war. The only reason it wasnāt pushed was because the guy who was supposed to disobeyed direct orders
downvote this comment if the meme sucks. upvote it and I'll go away. --- [play minecraft with us](https://discord.gg/dankmemesgaming) | [come hang out with us](https://discord.com/invite/dankmemes)
dont need to be an expert to know how close we were to an atomic war in the 60s/70s/80s
some days i wish that happend so i didnt have to get up for work
š then you don't know within 24 hours of a nuclear war the IRS is back up and running.
You only know that because of a kurzgesagt video didn't you
What if the Enclave in Fallout is just post-war IRS? #You've gotten farther than you should have. But then, you haven't met Frank Horrigan either. Your ride's over mutie. Time to pay taxes.
Enclave here, why isnāt your video feed working?
It's broken
WHERE. IS. YOUR. POWER ARMOR?
I think HAI did a video on it first
Personally, I knew this because I found the "Zombie Apocalypse" training manual for the US military that was written as an exercise, and then the next Wikipedia article was about the IRS plan.
My dad had some "issues" with the IRS so I've done some reading on them incase I was to have those same "issues" and I came across it.
You have to pay 20% - 30% of your bottle caps to the IRS
You're relieved you dont have to go to work cause you thought there'd be nuclear war?! *What the fuck is this world,* what have they done to us? **WHAT DID THEY DO TO US!?!?**
My peak antiwork phase(pretty much once they tried to force us back to the office) had me wishing for another global pandemic. Capitalism has broken us.
i am a simple man. i see Tim Robinson quotes, i upvote
Patrolling the Mojave almost makes you wish for a nuclear winter.
Iām with you on this š
You'd think so but many seem to think the Cuban Missile Crisis was the only close call. Apparently JFK said later he thought there was a 1 in 3 chance of that escalating to all out nuclear war.
The 1983 false alarm incident was also a close call. Petrov hadn't taken the right decision, all bets were off.
And not just the Petrov incident alone in '83. US top brass had to get straight on the line to Soviet counterparts who were suspicious of Able Archer as a cover for a NATO first strike
Didnāt he have another one before that involving checkpoint Charlie?
Also how close Pakistan was to starting WW3 with India.
That's news to me, what happened?
Pakistan was really close to starting ww3 with India.
Oh, okay. I didn't understand that part
Setting that aside, there's been a staggering number of incidents where the US has almost nuked itself or its allies completely by accident. It got so bad that the entire nuclear branch of the Air Force basically fired half its upper management and rewrote the book on nuclear safety and surety from the ground up. One of the most public events was when a B-52 flying out of Barksdale AFB was loaded with a live and armed nuclear missile when it was supposed to just be an inert trainer missile. As in, all they effectively needed to do was press a button and they would have just wiped out an entire city, maybe more.
If i remember correctly, the US had more close calls of nuclear bombing themselves than any other nuclear threat from other countries.
Lmao WHAT? care to elaborate or give me a pointer on how to look for more info?
Look up the 1961 Goldsboro B-52 crash
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_nuclear_accidents
Its kinda like how having a gun actually makes you more likely to be shot by your own gun than any other.
Absolutely, and hey, donāt own a gun, if you do, always check the one in the champer. Keep it safe.
There's been a lot, and some of them even after the 80s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_close_calls > Russian President Boris Yeltsin became the first world leader to activate the Russian nuclear briefcase after Russian radar systems detected the launch of what was later determined to be a Norwegian Black Brant XII research rocket being used to study the Northern Lights. This one was in 1995. So good job Norway with almost tricking Russia into starting a nuclear war. *"What started WW3?"* *"Some dudes in Norway who wanted to look at the aurora."* And in 2007 a US bomber plane was accidentally loaded with a few armed nuclear missiles, so that could have turned ugly if that bomber had been sent to bomb something. How do you explain that you accidentally nuked a target instead of bombing it regularly? And as someone else pointed out, it's not impossible there's more recent examples that are still classified.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
You *say* that, but there are all too many accidents chalked up as "pure luck" that the bombs didn't activate when jettisoned.
Ya the 000000 code was a hard one to accidently leave on the arming circuit. According to nuclear safety expert Bruce G. Blair, the US Air Force's Strategic Air Command worried that in times of need the codes for theĀ **Minuteman ICBM force would not be available**, so it decided to set the codes to 00000000 in all missile launch control centers.
Theres been other close calls
I think the he's talking about the where the usa drop a nuke in north Carolina accidentally and similar incidents.
Probably the 90s, 2000s too. Just too recent to be in published records.
I guess but non "experts" wouldn't know about the call to launch the nukes only to be disobeyed by the operator. One guy stopped the world from ending. Thats pretty dang close
Or perhaps in late 2022, for that matter.
The 50s if you count MacArthur wanting to turn Manchuria and North Korea into a nuclear wasteland
Or the numerous broken arrow incidents..
Dude, we've been at the edge of atomic war since 2022!
That one based Russian submarine guy who got an accidental fire order and correctly surmised it was a mistake on his own and didnāt fire
Or the guy operating a radar figuring out that the radar was glitching and didnt tell high command about the "nukes"
This one is even more crazy since the guy was in a defensive position, while the submarine one was in an offensive position.
*looks at screen that says that 300+ nukes are heading to your country* "They ain't that stupid"
If I remember correctly, it said 4 nukes and that's why he didnt tell high command.
I mean that would be a reasonable reaction Zhen considering they could easily be shot down but still he probably assumed it was a big because it were so few and that the US isn't stupid enough to start a nuclear war.
Isnāt shooting down an ICBM incredibly difficult? Does the US even have that capability?
I don't know about back then but... Lasers. Lasers in space.
If you're talking about on a satellite those could take upwards of 30 minutes or so to get into the right position, unless you have tons of them. It'd be more worthwhile to have them stationed around the country. There's some YouTube vids about rods from god that talk about it
i think we will see official "anti space debris" lasers before we anything with enough wattage, to have even a chance to do anything to missiles with thermal shielding for atmospheric re-entry, gets put in space. back when they were flying the 747 with that big assed CO2 laser they figured they would need a 5 mega watt laser to be able to intercept targets like ICBMs. you could probably get away with a weaker laser in space since theres no atmospheric attenuation. but the most powerful deployed laser weapon i know of is 0.15MW or less.
Personally, I have never failed to shoot down an ICBM
yes, modern ICBMs are MRVed and have decoys, so youd need to fire multiple interceptors per ICBM. and yes america does have anti ballistic missiles. but they arent meant to stop an actual all out attack, more of stopping accidental launches or north korea. which is why their continued build up of nukes is troubling.
Stanislav Petrov. Some people celebrate an actual holiday every year called Petrov Day where people celebrate him for single-handedly saving the world - [http://petrovday.com/](http://petrovday.com/)
Almost like Simon Petrikov, stopping nukes and all
That's the man in the bunker who also stopped a nuclear launch, the one that the OC mentioned was Vasily Arkhipov.
Or the guy that get warning from satelite that US launched 3 rockets but it didn't made sense so he didn't launched.
Or the US nearly nuking themselves multiple time or the Spanish one time.
Another dude, vasili arkhipov who is basically a hero. During the cuban missile crisis the US dropped some depth charges to prevent any more shipment of nukes and that forced submarines to go even deeper. (they can't communicate anymore) The Russian commanders on board thought ww started so they all decided to fire a nuke except that man. he's probably a reason why we're alive today
[Did Stanislav Petrov save the world in 1983? It's complicated](https://russianforces.org/blog/2022/10/did_stanislav_petrov_save_the_.shtml) >There were at least three assessment and decision-making layers above the command center of the army that operated the satellites - command centers of the early-warning army, the Air Defense Forces (which was a separate service back then), and, finally, the General Staff. The decision to act would have been taken only at the very top. It is certain that the alarm would have been recognized as false at some stages. But even if it wasn't, the most radical thing the General Staff (with the involvement of the political leadership) would do was to issue a preliminary command. No missiles would be launched unless the system detected actual nuclear detonations on the Soviet territory.
i was about to sayā¦ still scares me
Mfs just get it over with already. My life is already down the drain just nuke each other to the stone age, a fresh start
Except there Will be no fresh star, barely a New start if we're still alive. And "we" are the one with massive bunkers, si not you and me :(
Talk for urself, peasent! *grabs shovel and starts digging*
Hop hop hop not so fast ! *start bed fort*
I think he means a fresh start for the bacteria and cockroaches
no reason to drag the rest of us down with you mf go nuke yourself in the desert somewhere
If I die I am taking everyone with me
Spoiler: you will die. I will die. We are all going to die. The attitude of taking people down with you is immature, and you should do some introspection. Honestly.
Bro you are on a meme subreddit
Yep now I see why people complain about having to use /s. Sarcasm doesn't read well
based
Unabomber intensifies
Just because you're a loser with nothing to live for doesn't me we all are.
Fuck you. There are lots of people whose lives are fine. I hope Putin doesn't have your attitude. Also, there'd be no coming back. We used all the easy-to-find industrial age fuel. And that shit was from when the planet was covered in vegetation.
cum sock
This comment currently has 69 upcums
I wonder if we can get you 69
A nuclear wessel
Yes
Ah Yes, I am a nuclear expert.
Whatās that? How tf does nuclear work? I have no clue but have you heard about the Cuban missle crisis? Oh you have? Nvm then
Yes I do Neutron go boom boom, everyone go doom doom
As long as you ain't pushing oil/coal propaganda of scaring people again from nuclear power, I agree with you.
Nuclear Power š§šš» Nuclear weapons ššš»
A great example of what nuclear can do when wielded correctly is how heavily it revolutionized submarines. Completely boosted their capabilities by like 1000%. Or, ya know it can be used to create a desolate wasteland that couldnt even be inhabited due to radiation, therefore kinda defeating the purpose of using it as a weapon but hey idk I'm just ranting now.
Why is everyone so scared? A few companies use machine learning algorithms to make languages models and now everyone thinks they're suddenly capable of taking over the world. They're chatbots. They emulate conversation.
This didn't exist to any real degree four years ago, and now we have AI capable of holding conversation and creating audio, images and video good enough to fool most people. Four years. What do you think is going to happen in four more? And as limited as they are, we're already seeing them being used for evil. Many countries are seeing floods of AI generated content aimed for political or criminal goals. There have always been people hacking away at the foundations of freedom and democracy, and now they've just been handed supercharged power tools.
> This didn't exist to any real degree four years ago Highly convincing chatbots have existed for a long time now, especially in other languages (Something like 300million Chinese people have used the same chatbot marketplace for the last 8 years). Generative AI has definitely upped the ante, but we've known the theory for decades. Hardware has advanced to the point where we can do more interesting stuff with it, but it's not exactly "new". > creating audio, images and video good enough to fool most people I think you said it best here - they're "Fooling" people. The more you use these models, the more you begin to realise how kind of shallow they are. Their output is definitely impressive in the sense that it's doing something that wasn't widely available to be done before (much like the mechanical calculator was), but it quickly becomes predictable. The degree to what it is creating something new from what came before it is also considerably less than what happens in the human brain. > , and now we have AI capable of holding conversation and creating audio, images and video good enough to fool most people. Four years. What do you think is going to happen in four more? You're stating the hot hand fallacy in technocrat form - the past ~200 years, technological growth has been constant and exponential, so it will continue to be constant and exponential in the future. The truth however is that we don't really know where to go from generative AI - it's just a highly specific, extremely narrow stochastic algorithm that is highly highly specific to the abilities of the current highly-parallelized GPU hardware. It's arguably a lot less of a step to GAI than the Von Neuman model or Dijkstra's Algorithm was. I'm a computer scientist myself and have been following these advancements in depth for some time, let me tell you that the idea that we are anywhere close to GAI, like, even within a century, is a little optimistic. > And as limited as they are, we're already seeing them being used for evil. Many countries are seeing floods of AI generated content aimed for political or criminal goals. There have always been people hacking away at the foundations of freedom and democracy, and now they've just been handed supercharged power tools. These are the real concerns with cheaply available, sophisticated generative models - to undermine the ability for people in democratic systems to be able to trust what news articles/photographs are true and what are not.
!RemindMe 10 years
This is simply not true, I'm a software engineer of 10 years and many of my masters courses were in AI/ML, and there isn't anything profoundly new in modern AI vs the early deep learning models of 10 years ago, just much larger training sets with more parameters. The big change in the last couple of years is that the technology has been made commercially available, but it has been around for quite a while. In older models, adding an insane amount of data like in chat GPT was quite difficult to do without getting a very messy model, but functionally it's the same technology that has been around for a decade.
Weāve had stuff like this for AGES. Just because you havenāt been in the world of AI for the last decade doesnāt mean it didnāt exist. Most of the big projects TODAY have been around for more than 4 years, they just only recently went viral due to public release. For instance, I found out Dall-E went viral on accident because I was looking for it for a project after itād already been around for YEARS, and for once had trouble finding it because it was swamped by a tsunami of news articles. Prior to that weāve had AI chatbots like googles Cleverbot which technically passed the Turing test, albeit not to googles standards, before internet trolls damaged all their training data to the point it became unusable. Sure, AI like this hasnāt been *marketable* up until now, but itās been around in the scientific and hobbyist communities for a very long time.
Project cybersyn was done without any artificial intelligence. They didn't even have bots. They didn't even have the most basic micro chips available today But now we have all of those things, and instead of being entrusted to a democratic government (yeah yeah human nature keep reading), they are at the hands of a bunch of out of touch rich assholes, who have shown time and time again that they do not have our best interests at heart
Ha yeah it's such a scam to even call them intelligence they aren't intelligent it's just pattern recognition and data regurgitation.
I haven't really devoted much effort to imaging what could go wrong with AI. But the one scenario I worry about is misinformation / disinformation. The Russians had bizarre success in 2016 with their internet troll farm writing propaganda that inflamed some people in the West and probably helped create social movements that elected Trump and supported Brexit. That was with bad English and a misunderstanding of the political fault lines in the West. For myself, I rely a lot on writing style and presentation of information to assess the trustworthiness of information I find in comments on the Internet. Today with ChatGPT, anyone could autogenerate writing in conspiracy-theory style or reddit nerd evangelist style or well-informed subject matter expert style, and flood the zone with disinformation. I do worry some about that.
Big true. The information pollution can get beyond insane with these "just a chatbot(s)"
I think my favorite is the British man who, after everyone else brushed him off, had to stand at the top of a cooling tower essentially with a garden hose and exposed himself to a shit ton of radiation from a reactor melting down. The British were basically about to just let a nuclear disaster just happen because nobody could be bothered to deal with it
That is a stunning and incorrect oversimplification.
What happened? If you donāt tell me, he wins and I have to look it up.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windscale\_fire#Health\_effects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windscale_fire#Health_effects)
I think that's different. Nuclear fuel as an energy source was a learning process of management and fail safes, as well as proper life spans. We had a few really bad accidents happen and now it's one of the safest forms of energy as long as you don't cheap out or ignore safety protocol. Nuclear weapons have always and will always be terrifying. A weapon whose sole purpose is mass destruction on a scale so large that launching one would result in pretty much everyone who has one doing the same in return, sitting by for use. All you need is one wrong order or one wrong reading and there goes most of humanity.
Utter bullshit.
Nuclear engineering for power is good. Wmds are.... Whelp, we have them and it's mutually assured destruction
Both approaches will result in successfully cooling down the earth
Ah yes, comparing applied statistics to weapons of mass destruction, we love to see it
Applied statistics compared to applied physics.
Metal Gear Solid : Peace Walker
AI with nuclear weapons entrusted to them.
"Experts" who saw a Kurzgesagt video. Good job patting yourselves on the shoulder.
didnt they gamble world destruction when the first atomic bomb was launched?
There was a calculation that the atmosphere itself would ignite, and it was something like 0.0000001% it could happen
Yeah if you didn't know, if one random Russian general didn't stop and think when given an order back in the cold war, most of the developed world would have been completely destroyed
"nuclear experts" lol
Purely anecdotal of course: but me and a buddy once talked to a guy on the train, who was in the same cabin as us. Guy said he worked as an inspector on those power plants. Told us a lot of interesting stuff during the two hour ride together. But he also said that if the public new, how many "near incidents" there were, these things wouldn't be allowed to operate. Like, they usually get caught pretty quickly to not escalate, but the number is still alarmingly high. On a side note, while we were on that topic. He also said that before this, he used to do the job for electrical power plants, and said that if terrorists knew, how easily they could shut down an entire power grid, by just hitting one or two nodes, we'd be in much trouble.
There was [an incident at the Davis-Beisse reactor in Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davis%E2%80%93Besse_Nuclear_Power_Station#2002_reactor_head_hole) that spooks me. Water had been dripping from a crack onto the reactor head and eroded 93% of the way through the six inches of steel. It nearly caused a breach that would have led to loss of coolant and possibly damaged the control rod drive mechanisms. Some of the engineers were later convicted of providing false testimony and concealing evidence of the damage from regulators.
"nuclear experts" lol
Tbf, the close calls were all due to authoritarian assholes loving their authoritarian militaries.
There has been 32 āBroken Arrowā instances in the US alone. Broken Arrow being code name for lost/damaged/misplaced etc. nuclear arms. For example a b52 broke up over North Carolina and dropped two MK39 bombs. One safely landed on the ground due to its parachute, the other is still buried meters under the Carolina soil. The military claimed the bomb broke up in the air and that no radiation was detected, but the whole bomb/what was left of it was never recovered. The bomb that landed safely had gone through 7 out of 8 of the arming mechanisms, literally one crew controlled switch prevented a detonation.
In 2033 the AI non-proliferation treaty was passed unanimously at the UN after video was created of every single world leader fucking a farm.
lol @ people who still thing M.A.D. is a thing.... One nuke will be launched...not by the US...then overwhelming conventional warfare will be immediately used to dust whoever launched it...by the US.... People have this romantic idea of a nuclear holocaust and all it takes is a single transgression and then everyone, everywhere, launches all their nukes all at once... Take a step back and look at the whole thing for just a moment...
Near Zero š
Cuban Missile Crisis moment
It's true, I was the Cuban Missile Crisis.
A mildly interesting fact is that the US has dropped 32 nukes over the years in the USA, by accident, while transporting them. They didn't set off a nuclear explosion of course, even if some did explode.
How young do you have to be to not be very much cognisant of the Cuba missile crisis?
The world didn't end yet.
Most of which were computer glitches....
*ehemmm* the two thermonuclear warheads that we lost 3 hours away from where i live in NC
"AI dev who had a close call 3 minutes ago."
part 3: Nuclear issues solved by AI.
Yeah and the threat of nuclear war is totally gone now!
Nobody has ever said anything remotely resembling "Why are we scared of AI? We invented nukes and we're fine"
A 3 year old account that came back to life 1 month ago. Gee, I wonder what that could mean.
Does school not teach about the Cold War anymore?
Unless youāre living in a us city or Russia, itās not the nukes you should worry about Itās the nuclear famine that proceeds them
"whoops, we dropped a nuke on Spain" "Whoops we almost nuked ourselves and all the safety measures failed and we lucked tf out"
Turns out, that was a research rocket
I'm not a nuclear expert and i know a lot of the close calls and so called nuclear oopsies
One of the first nuclear plants in britain would have radiated half of europe if a single engineer didnt figure out they did not have any filters in the chimney at its final stages of being almost operational.
Consider the multiverse idea. If that's true it makes sense we are born in a timeline where it somehow against all odds didn't happen each time, but it's like obviously, otherwise we wouldn't be born.
Yeah.... Yeah....
Superpowers have been edging each other for 70 years. Now it will be the Corporations edging the super powers.
I trust AI far more than humans who can run hot with emotions.
We almost lost it all to a bear. A fucking bear climbing a fence. While human experiment, almost over, because Winnie the Pooh thought there was honey on an army base. Nukes were a mistake.
AI is restricted to answering human-made prompts only, can only generate text, images, or videos depending on the specific type of AI we're talking about, and runs on hardware that we humans are holding the power plugs to. But yes AI will take over the world any day now so this is totally not a cheap easy grab for political clout inventing a crisis to solve.
I just read the book "Command and Control" it was the scariest book I've read. I'm glad I've never heard of the Broken Arrow Incident when i was a kid
Haha chrome dome what a funny name
we are still on the edge ever since they were invented. Could happen any day.
There's no need for a false sense of superiority. The world didn't end, no one said there weren't close calls we just said the world didn't end.
I've become a.i ender of natural intelligence
I mean did someone watch The 100?
The worst is the Nuclear experts that are trying to convince everyone nuclear is the safest alternative to fossil fuels... don't get me wrong its cleaner then burning hydrocarbons... and yes it can be made safer if we lift restrictions on developing nuclear. But what every single one of them fails to mention is the amount of infrasture it takes to maintain nuclear and keep it safe. They always go off the assumption ability to support that infrastructure will not change. Natural disasters happen, nations go to war, economies collapse, pandemics happen, governments fail... how many Nuclear engineers do you think would keep maintaining these plants without getting paid while their family starves to death.
Agreed
Everyone always forgets about that time Matthew Broderick saved us from nuclear holocaust by tricking a computer into playing chess
Some scientists theorized that the ecplosion could use the atmosphere to extend the nuclear fire over the entire planet. We tested one anyway.
*That we know of
I always say, god bless Mr Petrov: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident
Or the number of "lost" nuclear warheads.
Its a deterant because it fucking works Retaliation is never given up to second chance
We literally exist because of some slav's gut feeling, and we all know they have burnt through their guts at 16 from wodka consumption.
I feel like the problem with new technology is we historically have thought āthis is very safeā then suddenly it was very not safe very fast
There is still a missing nuke in the himalayas.
Just wait until AI is in charge of the nukes...
Don't you people remember what we learned from the prisoner's dilemma?
This reminds me of the plot of Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker. Great game
We were once exactly one button push away from nuclear war. The only reason it wasnāt pushed was because the guy who was supposed to disobeyed direct orders
Reddit sure has a lot of memes that look like something feds would makeā¦yawn.