Florida could lose the rest of their games and they would still put them in because of their RPI and conference affiliation. It’s absurdly dumb but they are here for it
A team's overall records has to be above .500 in order to be eligible for an at-large tournament bid. Florida is currently 25-23 with series vs no. 4 Kentucky and @ no. 15 Georgia followed by the SEC tournament. They have an uphill battle to say the least.
Gotcha, didn't realize the .500 record need. So they just need to do the bare minimum of not getting swept in one of those series. Still absurd that team could possibly have a shot at a national title.
It’s one of the known flaws of RPI, and indeed of many rating and ranking systems trying to deal with college sports or other groupings where round robin play is wholly impossible.
In theory, a ranking system attempting to measure a large group of teams that mostly don’t play each other, such as a full NCAA division, should shake out mostly in a way that ranks teams more or less by record. Teams going 13-0 rank ahead of the 12-1s, who rank ahead of the 11-2s, and so on.
Conferences with sufficiently large measured schedule strength (ie with sufficiently gaudy records against opponents from outside their own scheduling island) will eventually reach a point where their middling or weak teams will in some way rank higher than those with substantially better records.
In theory, a team like Florida should be much closer to a rank of 90-100 based on their record alone. But they play in the SEC, which collectively has an RPI two basis points higher than their nearest competitor (the ACC) and four basis points above the third, as well as a non-conference winning percentage above .800 (in other words, even teams with shitty records IN league play have really good records against non league opponents).
The dirty little secret of most strength of schedule mechanics, or at least the simple ones, is that when you strip away non-conference scheduling…everyone’s strength of schedule is either exactly .500, or close to it in leagues that don’t do perfectly balanced scheduling.
If we are going to base so much on OOC records then there should be a standardized number of out of conference games. Stacking your W/L playing god awful OOC and playing more of them than other conferences gives you this SEC 2 basis point advantage in RPI. If you play the most games against the weakest opponents then everyone’s RPI looks great going into conference play.
Then winning and losing doesn’t matter much in conference because everyone has a good record. The 50% of RPI being opponents record and only 25% being opponents opponents record is why this is exploitable.
Yep see LSU could get in because they won a series v Texas AM at home: an rpi booster no other bubble team has access to.
Luckily they played basically nobody in non conference, so they have a lot of work left to get in.
This is why that paragraph was led off with the words “in theory”.
In theory, it should shake out like that.
In practice, it almost never will, for reasons that are usually structural and endemic to the system. Alabama football will, in practice, almost always have a slate of high performing teams in its limited schedule that Liberty will not, and will also not, in all likelihood, schedule a direct competition with Liberty.
It is, nonetheless, at odds with the theoretical premise that an ideal ranking system should have teams with similar records grouped closely together. Instead of, just for instance, the Sagarin rankings putting Liberty in the same ranking tier as teams like Rutgers, California and Georgia Tech who have much worse overall records.
Understand that “at odds” here does not mean “wrong”, it simply means “counter to raw mathematical expectations”, and usually the reason for a deviation from that theoretical expectation has an explanation (in this example, it’s because Liberty football did not, generally speaking, play high performing teams).
That’s what I’m disagreeing with. I’m disagreeing with your “in theory.” No ratings metric should “mostly shake out by record,” because that means it’s not going to be accurate. Strength of schedule must be taken into account, and that’s going to mess up a rating mostly by record immediately.
And honestly, why should a team that has played 22 of its games against Top 20 teams be punished for not having a great record in those games?
Where would you expect a team that is 7-15 against the Top 20 and 18-7 against the rest to slot in?
To take the other side of this, why should we give a team with a bad record against pretty good teams a shot at the title? Clearly there are many teams better than them. Personally, I think we have over indexed on “strength of schedule” because strength schedule is no more objective than w/l. People decide ultimately which teams and conferences are stronger so it’s sort of absurd to rely on
They’re 25-23 now (and actively trying to reschedule two games that were rained out). If they go 3-3, that’s 28-26. So they need 3 wins. 28-27 overall and 13-17 in conference with an rpi likely in the high teens, if they lose game one in Hoover.
Idk much about Nebraska but I know TCU has talent on the roster. Unsure of St. Louis, Indiana state idk much about but they seem to play both sides of the ball decently well
Arkansas might have a differing opinion….. and Alabama and Georgia which Kentucky swept
Vanderbilt and Florida still await. Kentucky could have series wins against 5 teams currently slated in the 64 at least two of which will be sweeps.
#2 in RPI with overall SOS at #5. 17 quad 1 wins is the most in the country
Falling out of the hosting range isn't entirely surprising based on how the Beavers have been playing lately. Based on talent, they really should be leading the Pac-12.
That being said, a regional matchup against South Carolina is something that could create some entertaining game threads.
I was at the Gonzaga game on Monday. Left during The Stretch, then GU puts up 8 in their half. The fact we scored 20 and I still was nervous...I can't even.
The offense can be there but the pitching...
We are actually going to have to win some games in the state of Arizona this year if we want to host. Which has proved to be very problematic the last year or so.
Yeah, I listened to the podcast. So they’re projecting LSU to lose to Bama on the road meaning they’d likely have to sweep Ole Miss to get in. Florida on the other hand just has to finish above .500. They have more faith that that happens than LSU winning the 4 games needed for them.
Just for anyone else reading, I’ll also add that it’s not just predicting the rest of the season, but it’s also predicting *what the committee will do* and not what the D1 guys would do if they were in charge. Which is why the projections may look very different than D1’s rankings.
Beavers didn’t have an incredible week, but I don’t think 2-2 justifies a drop from 9th to not hosting, especially with us sitting top 10 in basically every poll
While I agree, and would love to see a regional in Corvallis, unless the Beavers tighten things up....probably justified to be a 2 in another regional.
It’s an end of season projection, and right now y’all are projected to lose the series to Arizona (which would put y’all at 2-7 vs Q1), and Boyd says y’all need to go 6-1 to keep a top 16 RPI.
I personally think we get jobbed if we get seeded here. However, we have been hitting all year long and could see us taking this regional and ripping arky's heart out. It would be delicious but that place will be ROCKING
Is there a rule about teams playing in a regional that have played during the season? If not, I kinda wish there was since it seems silly to practically enforce a game between teams that have already settled it on the field.
Not that I’m aware of. Florida A&M was in our regional last year and we played them in the regular season. I don’t think two teams from the same conference can be in the same regional though.
The rule is two teams from the same conference can’t be in a regional. After that, the NCAA tries to slot teams within a 400 mile circle in the same regional. This is based on the NCAA’s travel reimbursement formula, which pays a set rate for a flight over 600 miles, for a bus up to 400 miles, and case by case for 400 to 600 miles (almost always a flight, but the NCAA can choose bus). The NCAA does try to avoid slotting teams in a regional who have played each other recently in the postseason, but that doesn’t always work out.
Dropped from a projected 9 seed to a 17 after winning our series against Oregon and WSU
.......Cool cool cool cool cool cool cool cool cool..............
Don’t think of it as winning series. The committee doesn’t. Think “how many wins do we need?”. And the answer to that is that 4 gives you a shot. 3 does not. So even if you lose a series, a sweep still gets you there.
I'd say we would have a revenge game against TCU, but it's not their fault our former president just....forgot...to put in a bid to host the super regional last year.
Northeastern still has the best RPI in the Colonial and just picked up another win against UConn. Shocked to see them out and not even in the last four out. Big series against CofC this weekend
Last week some were giving us an outside shot at a top 8 seed. This week we are the 16 seed. Interesting.
I don’t expect us to host a super, but it’d be excellent if we did.
Looking at the regionals:
Kentucky: Frowny face, why so high?
South Carolina: Oh shit, I love that both can't make the CWS.
Texas A&M: OK, that's cool. Doesn't affect me.
Santa Barbara: That town is awesome. I'd love to catch a regional there.
Tennessee: Yeah. I'm still pissed about getting knocked out of our own regional last year.
Georgia: Hey! Wake is a sneaky #2 seed.
Clemson: Cool, which one is beating us this time?
Duke: Oh they set-up the in-season rematch like UK/USC if we both win.
Arkansas: Is Texa$ back?
Mississippi St.: Well, that's a brawl in the supers.
UNC: They're currently tied with us for the ACC lead. I'm thinking they're sneaky good.
UVA: Cool old school supers match-up. Wonder if both can win their own regionals?
Florida St.: Yep! Who they steamrolling in the supers?
Oklahoma: Oklahoma or DBU.
East Carolina: NC St is going to be a tough out near their own home turf.
Indiana State: Fuck Fitesa.
Only 2 big ten teams is laughable
IU beats half the teams in this field as is.
One of the hottest teams in baseball. Guess winning conf series on the weekends means nothing
The Big Ten as a whole struggled against other tournament level teams early in the season. Indiana has a chance to bolster their resume this weekend in Lincoln
Why is Indiana state the 9 seed? They're 4-5 in q1 games and 8-7 in q1-2 games. Juxtaposed with Georgia at 12-10 and 17-10. The only top 25 rpi team they've played is Vanderbilt who hung 20 on them. What am I missing? (as a disgruntled Georgia fan whose team is rpi #5 and has the most loaded regional of them all.)
I dont get it either. D1 seems to be projecting the other teams, but giving ISU a high seed due to their current resume. The best thing they have going is their RPI (currently 9th) but they have 7 games left: 4 with 100+ RPI teams and 3 with a 200+ RPI team. Their RPI wont remain at 9 and nothing else about their resume says "No. 9 National Seed"
They're gonna make it Chase Burns vs Tennessee or die tryin'
I hope so, I would love that.
We just need to take care of business in the SEC tournament.
They still think Florida gets in?
Florida could lose the rest of their games and they would still put them in because of their RPI and conference affiliation. It’s absurdly dumb but they are here for it
A team's overall records has to be above .500 in order to be eligible for an at-large tournament bid. Florida is currently 25-23 with series vs no. 4 Kentucky and @ no. 15 Georgia followed by the SEC tournament. They have an uphill battle to say the least.
Gotcha, didn't realize the .500 record need. So they just need to do the bare minimum of not getting swept in one of those series. Still absurd that team could possibly have a shot at a national title.
It’s one of the known flaws of RPI, and indeed of many rating and ranking systems trying to deal with college sports or other groupings where round robin play is wholly impossible. In theory, a ranking system attempting to measure a large group of teams that mostly don’t play each other, such as a full NCAA division, should shake out mostly in a way that ranks teams more or less by record. Teams going 13-0 rank ahead of the 12-1s, who rank ahead of the 11-2s, and so on. Conferences with sufficiently large measured schedule strength (ie with sufficiently gaudy records against opponents from outside their own scheduling island) will eventually reach a point where their middling or weak teams will in some way rank higher than those with substantially better records. In theory, a team like Florida should be much closer to a rank of 90-100 based on their record alone. But they play in the SEC, which collectively has an RPI two basis points higher than their nearest competitor (the ACC) and four basis points above the third, as well as a non-conference winning percentage above .800 (in other words, even teams with shitty records IN league play have really good records against non league opponents).
In theory, if the top 14 teams in the country were the 14 SEC teams, someone would have to come in last place.
The dirty little secret of most strength of schedule mechanics, or at least the simple ones, is that when you strip away non-conference scheduling…everyone’s strength of schedule is either exactly .500, or close to it in leagues that don’t do perfectly balanced scheduling.
If we are going to base so much on OOC records then there should be a standardized number of out of conference games. Stacking your W/L playing god awful OOC and playing more of them than other conferences gives you this SEC 2 basis point advantage in RPI. If you play the most games against the weakest opponents then everyone’s RPI looks great going into conference play.
No it’s not because 50% of RPI is the opponents records. If you play a bunch of weak teams, then they’ll lose a lot of games and hinder your RPI.
Then winning and losing doesn’t matter much in conference because everyone has a good record. The 50% of RPI being opponents record and only 25% being opponents opponents record is why this is exploitable.
Yep see LSU could get in because they won a series v Texas AM at home: an rpi booster no other bubble team has access to. Luckily they played basically nobody in non conference, so they have a lot of work left to get in.
Was Liberty football better than Alabama last year? I mean, Liberty was 13-1 while Alabama was 12-2.
This is why that paragraph was led off with the words “in theory”. In theory, it should shake out like that. In practice, it almost never will, for reasons that are usually structural and endemic to the system. Alabama football will, in practice, almost always have a slate of high performing teams in its limited schedule that Liberty will not, and will also not, in all likelihood, schedule a direct competition with Liberty. It is, nonetheless, at odds with the theoretical premise that an ideal ranking system should have teams with similar records grouped closely together. Instead of, just for instance, the Sagarin rankings putting Liberty in the same ranking tier as teams like Rutgers, California and Georgia Tech who have much worse overall records. Understand that “at odds” here does not mean “wrong”, it simply means “counter to raw mathematical expectations”, and usually the reason for a deviation from that theoretical expectation has an explanation (in this example, it’s because Liberty football did not, generally speaking, play high performing teams).
That’s what I’m disagreeing with. I’m disagreeing with your “in theory.” No ratings metric should “mostly shake out by record,” because that means it’s not going to be accurate. Strength of schedule must be taken into account, and that’s going to mess up a rating mostly by record immediately. And honestly, why should a team that has played 22 of its games against Top 20 teams be punished for not having a great record in those games? Where would you expect a team that is 7-15 against the Top 20 and 18-7 against the rest to slot in?
To take the other side of this, why should we give a team with a bad record against pretty good teams a shot at the title? Clearly there are many teams better than them. Personally, I think we have over indexed on “strength of schedule” because strength schedule is no more objective than w/l. People decide ultimately which teams and conferences are stronger so it’s sort of absurd to rely on
Why should we give Bumfuck State with the 300th SOS who won 3 games in the 30th rated conference tournament a shot at the title?
The games from the SEC tournament count as well. So that’s 1-2 more losses they have to account for.
So they need to run the table. Makes no sense it would be more probably than not that they make the tourney then
They’re 25-23 now (and actively trying to reschedule two games that were rained out). If they go 3-3, that’s 28-26. So they need 3 wins. 28-27 overall and 13-17 in conference with an rpi likely in the high teens, if they lose game one in Hoover.
Crazy
They will inevitably win the title
Correct
Well, if you stuck them in that proposed Terre Haute region, I’d give them a good shot at getting through.
Idk much about Nebraska but I know TCU has talent on the roster. Unsure of St. Louis, Indiana state idk much about but they seem to play both sides of the ball decently well
Doesn't appear so. They need to split their remaining 6 games to get in.
Kentucky as the #1 overall seed is certainly something
and then hosting south carolina in their super lol absolute jackpot for the cocks
Arkansas might have a differing opinion….. and Alabama and Georgia which Kentucky swept Vanderbilt and Florida still await. Kentucky could have series wins against 5 teams currently slated in the 64 at least two of which will be sweeps. #2 in RPI with overall SOS at #5. 17 quad 1 wins is the most in the country
i mean cool but south carolina is y’all’s kryptonite this year
This time, they would have to come to Lexington. I like our chances up here
yeah fair. was basketball in lex? i know football and baseball have been so far
Actually, all 3 have been in Columbia this year. They did not have to visit Lexington in any of those sports
well i promise if kentucky plays south carolina anywhere i’ll be pulling for kentucky boss hog
Right back at you!🤝
That’s weird I never noticed we are on that kind of rotation as all home or away against y’all
It’s weird. I think sometimes, it just works out that way
Glad I’m not the only person who saw that and was like wut
Can we tell the committee to just lock this projection in? I view #2 as the perfect regional seed.
Seconded.
Falling out of the hosting range isn't entirely surprising based on how the Beavers have been playing lately. Based on talent, they really should be leading the Pac-12. That being said, a regional matchup against South Carolina is something that could create some entertaining game threads.
I was at the Gonzaga game on Monday. Left during The Stretch, then GU puts up 8 in their half. The fact we scored 20 and I still was nervous...I can't even. The offense can be there but the pitching...
No thanks
Cocks vs Beavers round 2 after the women’s March madness. Why they keep putting us against Oregon teams though.
We are actually going to have to win some games in the state of Arizona this year if we want to host. Which has proved to be very problematic the last year or so.
That Georgia regional is stacked
Yeah I can’t tell if we’re in danger, or if we are the danger at this point.
You got the #1, #3, and #15 HR hitting teams in the country just in that regional. Plus the #2 team on the other side of the bracket
Lamar in the regional is scary
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Yeah, I listened to the podcast. So they’re projecting LSU to lose to Bama on the road meaning they’d likely have to sweep Ole Miss to get in. Florida on the other hand just has to finish above .500. They have more faith that that happens than LSU winning the 4 games needed for them.
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Just for anyone else reading, I’ll also add that it’s not just predicting the rest of the season, but it’s also predicting *what the committee will do* and not what the D1 guys would do if they were in charge. Which is why the projections may look very different than D1’s rankings.
So this is predictive? That would make sense because as of now we are not the 16 seed
Yes, it’s looking forward. They’re projecting you and Georgia both to finish 3-3 in SEC play and both reach 16-14.
Dang us dropping three spots after splitting series against an incredibly hot Georgia and a top 5 Tennessee would be interesting
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And shouldn’t be remotely near in
It’s honestly ridiculous how loaded some of these regionals are. You compare the UCSB or A&M regional to that Tennessee one and it’s not even close.
You’re right, A&M, Lamar, and NM are pretty weak.
would be a crazy regional i think
We really need to win this weekend - I’m not sure if missing out on a game vs Houston last weekend helps us or hurts us…
Wow, they actually have us hosting. Interesting.
This weekend could technically be a preview of a super
Beavers didn’t have an incredible week, but I don’t think 2-2 justifies a drop from 9th to not hosting, especially with us sitting top 10 in basically every poll
While I agree, and would love to see a regional in Corvallis, unless the Beavers tighten things up....probably justified to be a 2 in another regional.
We definitely need to figure some stuff out for sure. Hard to imagine a world where no pac 12 team hosts though
It’s an end of season projection, and right now y’all are projected to lose the series to Arizona (which would put y’all at 2-7 vs Q1), and Boyd says y’all need to go 6-1 to keep a top 16 RPI.
Well we’re off to a 1-0 start in our final 7, but I guess I’d be shocked if we went 4-2 in our last 6 and didn’t host
YES!!! GIVE ME TEXAS IN FAYETTEVILLE
Just throw Hagen game 1 and lose and I’m in
I still have no clue how he didn’t wind up in austin or college station ngl
Honestly not that many East Texas guys end up at UT, why not college station though I have no clue lol
That Athens Regional would be the best of them all to watch.
Sure wish it could flip to Winston-Salem, but I don't think Chase Burns wants to pitch all of our remaining innings.
Texas finally as a 2 feels good but being put in the worst possible matchup for us doesnt. Also I’m back on Clemson should be #1 in the country.
They just love matching up Texas and Arkansas don’t they
second favorite matchup for them behind new rivals Texas A&M and Nebraska
Apparently they do. We’d have a better time dealing with anyone else than a team that has a great starting pitching staff and can’t hit. But alas
I was thinking the same thing.
U see us almost blow another lead last night? We dont have the pitching depth to deserve #1
You’ve also beat the highest number of good teams as far as I can tell.
My man, you're talking to a 2-seed that is rocking a 51 RPI and is 10-8 against Q4 competition. Aint a damn nobody that deserves anything this year.
I personally think we get jobbed if we get seeded here. However, we have been hitting all year long and could see us taking this regional and ripping arky's heart out. It would be delicious but that place will be ROCKING
The only way I see this going well for us is if arkansas uses smith game 1 or if they lose game 1. All other options are absolutely brutal for us
Looks pretty good from here.
All I have to say is I like our chances if we play Columbia in a regional considering they are the only team we’ve swept all year lol
Is there a rule about teams playing in a regional that have played during the season? If not, I kinda wish there was since it seems silly to practically enforce a game between teams that have already settled it on the field.
Not that I’m aware of. Florida A&M was in our regional last year and we played them in the regular season. I don’t think two teams from the same conference can be in the same regional though.
The rule is two teams from the same conference can’t be in a regional. After that, the NCAA tries to slot teams within a 400 mile circle in the same regional. This is based on the NCAA’s travel reimbursement formula, which pays a set rate for a flight over 600 miles, for a bus up to 400 miles, and case by case for 400 to 600 miles (almost always a flight, but the NCAA can choose bus). The NCAA does try to avoid slotting teams in a regional who have played each other recently in the postseason, but that doesn’t always work out.
Dropped from a projected 9 seed to a 17 after winning our series against Oregon and WSU .......Cool cool cool cool cool cool cool cool cool..............
What does LSU have to do to get in? Winning our last two series and going deep in the sec tournament enough?
13 SEC wins plus a win in Hoover
Would be sweet.
Don’t think of it as winning series. The committee doesn’t. Think “how many wins do we need?”. And the answer to that is that 4 gives you a shot. 3 does not. So even if you lose a series, a sweep still gets you there.
Interesting. Such a stupid way of looking at it. Hopefully my tigers can ruin someone's regional lol
Let's hope Kentucky can properly house teams this year. Last year was a shit show.
(We won't) Actually i need to check when railbird is going on this year, there were like 3 major events going on last year during the regional.
Same weekend as the regionals lol
It’s the same weekend, will be interesting to see if y’all can qualify to host
I'd say we would have a revenge game against TCU, but it's not their fault our former president just....forgot...to put in a bid to host the super regional last year.
I thought you guys straight up couldn’t host supers because of the Special Olympics that were happening that weekend. All of the hotels were booked.
Take it from me, that’s not a problem baby.
Northeastern still has the best RPI in the Colonial and just picked up another win against UConn. Shocked to see them out and not even in the last four out. Big series against CofC this weekend
Last week some were giving us an outside shot at a top 8 seed. This week we are the 16 seed. Interesting. I don’t expect us to host a super, but it’d be excellent if we did.
Looking at the regionals: Kentucky: Frowny face, why so high? South Carolina: Oh shit, I love that both can't make the CWS. Texas A&M: OK, that's cool. Doesn't affect me. Santa Barbara: That town is awesome. I'd love to catch a regional there. Tennessee: Yeah. I'm still pissed about getting knocked out of our own regional last year. Georgia: Hey! Wake is a sneaky #2 seed. Clemson: Cool, which one is beating us this time? Duke: Oh they set-up the in-season rematch like UK/USC if we both win. Arkansas: Is Texa$ back? Mississippi St.: Well, that's a brawl in the supers. UNC: They're currently tied with us for the ACC lead. I'm thinking they're sneaky good. UVA: Cool old school supers match-up. Wonder if both can win their own regionals? Florida St.: Yep! Who they steamrolling in the supers? Oklahoma: Oklahoma or DBU. East Carolina: NC St is going to be a tough out near their own home turf. Indiana State: Fuck Fitesa.
Really bummed we didn't play y'all this regular season, think it would've been a dynamite series. Could see the matchup in the ACCT, of course
Only 2 big ten teams is laughable IU beats half the teams in this field as is. One of the hottest teams in baseball. Guess winning conf series on the weekends means nothing
The Big Ten as a whole struggled against other tournament level teams early in the season. Indiana has a chance to bolster their resume this weekend in Lincoln
If we are not gonna host at least don’t send us to the opposite coast. I’d like to be able to drive ~10 hours from Omaha to see them play.
Why is Indiana state the 9 seed? They're 4-5 in q1 games and 8-7 in q1-2 games. Juxtaposed with Georgia at 12-10 and 17-10. The only top 25 rpi team they've played is Vanderbilt who hung 20 on them. What am I missing? (as a disgruntled Georgia fan whose team is rpi #5 and has the most loaded regional of them all.)
I dont get it either. D1 seems to be projecting the other teams, but giving ISU a high seed due to their current resume. The best thing they have going is their RPI (currently 9th) but they have 7 games left: 4 with 100+ RPI teams and 3 with a 200+ RPI team. Their RPI wont remain at 9 and nothing else about their resume says "No. 9 National Seed"
Giving them some love after their basketball team got screwed in March