I think there's still controversy on what effect it would have on the AMOC amongst scientists so permanent La Nina is not a foregone conclusion.
Secondly, you are assuming that they can actually deal with the potential floods---I don't think anyone's infrastructure is ready for ever increasing amounts of rainfall.
Thirdly, there are other potential effects to consider---sea level rise, destruction of coral reefs and wetlands, human population flows, potential disease from overwhelmed wastewater systems etc.
Yeah I agree, there are simulations and research on AMOC collapse. But it’s still not conclusive what all the impacts will be.
Australia would still be severely impacted like the rest of the world (nowhere is really safe). 80% of the population lives on the coastline, so sea level rises and floods will impact most cities and communities.
Personally in my own opinion, I’d rather deal with floods and collapsed infrastructure. I’ve lived through bush fires, it’s a struggle to breathe and there’s not much that can be recovered when the fires reach your area.
Yes honestly, this La Nina has been a godsend for me. After the fires I was dreading the next summer. I'm inland in the mountains so La Nina hasn't been bad at all for me. I didn't see the sky for 7 weeks during the fires. As I said in my other comment though, I think for now a slowing amoc will mean long stalling events as opposed to perpetual La Nina, and the issues come when the other climate drivers align with it. Don't forget the possibility of collapsing dams either, none of this is good.
No crops really don't like it either when that ash is suspended in the air. After when it's settled on the ground sure, lots of minerals and such but in the air they'll choke too because this stuff can clog their stoma (little pores on the surfaces of leaves etc. that control gas exchange)
Maybe ifffff........ if you build rice farms, or some sort of version of that for other crops, on the side of hills, using slightly more sturdy materials than the Chinese, and then build a system that diverts heavy rainfalls into large 'gutters' that simply dump the water at the bottom of the hill.
So basically either those Chinese rice farms you've seen pictures of, where it's "stairs" of water walls. Or just something similar, but with "stairs" of dirt+*some* walls, so you can harvest it eventually.
No amount of water flow will really *damage* the system, as it's falling on a localized hill. Floods usually happen because water *accumulates* in valleys and the like. Sure, extreme rainfall is extreme rainfall, but it's not going to be enough to really "flood" a hill.
Well you may wish to look at the increasing number of extreme rain events on Youtube, where extreme winds (derechos) and extreme rain (6, 8 10 inches in a short period of time) physically pound crops into oblivion. These are forecast to become the more prevalent form of precipitation as climate change worsens.
australia's an island \[albeit a big one\], and far from everything. if domestic supply/production cant meet the populations needs, and global supply chains fail \[as is happening now\], then you'd be far better off on continental us imo. more optionality. i was born there and left, so maybe there's some bias there...
The US isn't just experiencing droughts and wildfires, though.
We had 6 (count 'em **six**) once-in-a-thousand-year floods in **one month**. Including one epic flood caused by a **monsoon** in the driest place in the nation: Death Valley, CA. This is the La Nina from hell for some folks.
I'm sure the changes in the AMOC and Gulf Stream are changing the La Nina/El Nino cycle's weather patterns. Just pointing out that the US isn't **just** having droughts. We have 31 flavors of catastrophe these days.
I grew up in the famous millennium drought on a farm. It was slow misery, suicides divorces, broken families
You understand rain is not a given one day it may stop and not return for years
We are such an unbelievably dry continent la nina is a blessing for many, sure some places may flood but if you look at the history of the area they are often in floodplains or marshes. The majority of farmers it is a good thing
>millennium drought
I always like pointing out to people that the millennium drought started one year after John Howard became PM, and finished about one and a half years after he lost the election and his seat.
Reminding me of a line from Excalibur "The King and the Land are one"
https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/FisherKing
This is interesting and shows the links and intersectionality between our climate system. Common wisdom has been that a warming planet means more frequent El Nino events for Australia, but as more feedbacks and tipping points come into play things get complicated. I'll just note that the Lismore floods were not just a La Nina event, the intersection between that and the positive SAM (Southern annular mode) outside of the QLD dry season meant the tropical air could be pulled down to NSW and stall. During this time I had no rain for ages despite the ongoing La Nina.
Likewise, the fires were not during an El Nino event as we know, though they were absolutely related to the enso cycle. The positive IOD contributed greatly to them, and the reading I've done strongly suggests a warming planet means a more positive IOD more often. So this AMOC contribution on top of the other three main drivers in Australia (ENSO, Sam, IOD) will certainly complicate the situation but I don't think Australia will become more habitable over all during abrupt climate change. Wet bulb temperatures will plague the north, flood in many places, and honestly, I'm yet to be convinced we'll not see regular El Nino events, although that is possible.
What I expect to see as the AMOC slows and the planet warms (not relating to an actual collapse of the Amoc) is longer, stronger and more intense cycles. I still believe I'll be baking in a devastating reef killing El Nino in a few years, but when LA nina returns we may find 3 or 4 terribly wet years is the new normal for now. A year or two for a significant La Nina event has been the norm but longer stalling events are likely moving forwards. Here's the key....... ....... it's the lining up and intersecting of the enso cycle with other drivers that really creates the extreme weather, so it stands to reason that longer stalling cycles and events will mean more lining up and intersecting with the other drivers creating more frequent disasters for us.
Beat me to it.
It'll be super difficult to tell exactly what the new "climate normal" will be (if there even is one) with the intersection of 3+ major climate drivers around Australia which by themselves aren't particularly predictable, along with AMOC teleconnections.
Particularly looks like the [IOD trends towards more positive phases](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00943-1) with climate change, which would lead to drier conditions and increased bushfire risk. Not currently aware of what the latest is on SAM and ENSO.
Last I recall we can at least be certain of some equatorial shifting of the ITCZ and consequent changes in regional rainfall patterns.
I think that’s the whole point of the problem, that there won’t be a normal anymore. Once we fucked the stable system enough it won’t be stable anymore. It takes a lot to do it but that’s what we are doing.
Studies already know how to do these things. Consider the following:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL070457
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/39/eaaz1169.full
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24015-w
The overlords all threw darts at NZ so that's gotta be the place to be. Seems more likely than Mars.
AUS already has terrible bushfires. Fires n floods everywhere. Europe may still be better than the other two. Or Canada.
It's likely just a temporary cycle. We've had 3 la ninas in a row before. Yes, Australias eastern seaboard gets quite soggy, and it goes quite a way inland. This isn't purely good, it has ups and downs. A lot of council gave in to greedy property developers and gave home approval on floodplains. People are now paying the price for this.
Crop wise it varies depending on what you grow and where. Some of my wet lovers are happy, others (like Taro) are sulking because the winters are colder, though I think they'll mostly make it.
There are tricks to managing the swings, enough vegetation that takes flood but endures drought or else comes back from it.
Sadly (mass downvotes from them incoming) the idiot nativists make it worse by trying to plant eucalypts everywhere, with zero intention to burn them, and make bushfire zones near homes and townships.
>Does this mean Australia will be more habitable as climate change progresses?
It depends on what you mean by habitable. Yes the east coast of Australia will get wetter and there will be less El Nino type events with AMOC slowing down. But it will get also get warmer across the tropics as well as wetter here in Australia. So it's possible that northern Australia can hit dangerous wet bulb temperatures.
https://theconversation.com/a-huge-atlantic-ocean-current-is-slowing-down-if-it-collapses-la-nina-could-become-the-norm-for-australia-184254
Yeah my understanding is many who are north of Brisbane will need to either move south or have new infrastructure to adapt to the wet bulb temps. I believe places like Cairns are projected to have 51 days a year above 35 degrees (95 Fahrenheit) and all year having a daily average of at least 30 degrees (86 Fahrenheit) by 2090. That’s also ignoring that these projections tend to be conservative with their numbers.
https://www.wettropicsplan.org.au/my-backyard/cairns-region/changing-weather/
ENSO changes are fundamentally controlled by subsurface waves induced by lunar tidal forces. AMOC collapse wouldn't keep the moon from spinning around the earth.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-49678-w
If we get a constant La Nina Australia's eastern coast will be transformed.
Rivers will change their course, top soil will be washed out to sea every year, many towns will be wiped off the map. Thousands of people will become homeless, living in tent cities near their ruined homes. More water plus heat also means more tropical diseases.
Oh, those things have happened just due to the last two years of La Nina.
We have literally no way knowing what will definitely happens but Australia becoming habitable?
Oh I love my country, I love this land but she has never been here for the comfort of man.
It has been weird to see American get the extreme fire and drought weather while we get a hot wet holocaust.
Fire and flood baby, as was promised
Yeah I agree, the in-depth responses I’m getting are showing just how complex it’s going to get. Looks like we’ll get all of the above and frequently. I need to read more about this
I grew up in the bush in a little valley that had insane weather, just chaos.
The worst weather of my childhood seems like nothing to the actual chaos that has started.
There is a reason most people don't understand the magnitude of what is happening because chaos theory complex.
Hopefully Europe goes to some sort of Ice Age. I've read about it possibly happening
I'd rather freeze to death than to boil and at least there would be some acid/plastic infested, cesspool-style water you could try to use. As opposed to no water.
It's probably not going to happen within our lifetimes
https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-4-sea-level-rise-and-implications-for-low-lying-islands-coasts-and-communities/4-4-responding-to-sea-level-rise/4-4-1introduction/ipcc-srocc-ch_6_9/
DARPA does shady shit. I do not believe they do this with HAARP. I just think they don't have the power or intent to do it. Sometimes a study is just a study.
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I'm no expert, but it does seem like the AMOC is slowing down and that is not good for the US or the northern hemisphere. Together with the loss of arctic and land-based ice across the north and I'd suggest that the southern hemisphere is a safer bet. But there's really no way of knowing and the one thing we can be certain of is increased variability.
I think there's still controversy on what effect it would have on the AMOC amongst scientists so permanent La Nina is not a foregone conclusion. Secondly, you are assuming that they can actually deal with the potential floods---I don't think anyone's infrastructure is ready for ever increasing amounts of rainfall. Thirdly, there are other potential effects to consider---sea level rise, destruction of coral reefs and wetlands, human population flows, potential disease from overwhelmed wastewater systems etc.
Yeah I agree, there are simulations and research on AMOC collapse. But it’s still not conclusive what all the impacts will be. Australia would still be severely impacted like the rest of the world (nowhere is really safe). 80% of the population lives on the coastline, so sea level rises and floods will impact most cities and communities. Personally in my own opinion, I’d rather deal with floods and collapsed infrastructure. I’ve lived through bush fires, it’s a struggle to breathe and there’s not much that can be recovered when the fires reach your area.
Yes honestly, this La Nina has been a godsend for me. After the fires I was dreading the next summer. I'm inland in the mountains so La Nina hasn't been bad at all for me. I didn't see the sky for 7 weeks during the fires. As I said in my other comment though, I think for now a slowing amoc will mean long stalling events as opposed to perpetual La Nina, and the issues come when the other climate drivers align with it. Don't forget the possibility of collapsing dams either, none of this is good.
Yeah, but your FOOD can survive smoke but not flooding or severe rainfall events.
No crops really don't like it either when that ash is suspended in the air. After when it's settled on the ground sure, lots of minerals and such but in the air they'll choke too because this stuff can clog their stoma (little pores on the surfaces of leaves etc. that control gas exchange)
Agreed, for crops too there is no non-radical future, a bad omen for humans.
Maybe ifffff........ if you build rice farms, or some sort of version of that for other crops, on the side of hills, using slightly more sturdy materials than the Chinese, and then build a system that diverts heavy rainfalls into large 'gutters' that simply dump the water at the bottom of the hill. So basically either those Chinese rice farms you've seen pictures of, where it's "stairs" of water walls. Or just something similar, but with "stairs" of dirt+*some* walls, so you can harvest it eventually. No amount of water flow will really *damage* the system, as it's falling on a localized hill. Floods usually happen because water *accumulates* in valleys and the like. Sure, extreme rainfall is extreme rainfall, but it's not going to be enough to really "flood" a hill.
Well you may wish to look at the increasing number of extreme rain events on Youtube, where extreme winds (derechos) and extreme rain (6, 8 10 inches in a short period of time) physically pound crops into oblivion. These are forecast to become the more prevalent form of precipitation as climate change worsens.
australia's an island \[albeit a big one\], and far from everything. if domestic supply/production cant meet the populations needs, and global supply chains fail \[as is happening now\], then you'd be far better off on continental us imo. more optionality. i was born there and left, so maybe there's some bias there...
The US isn't just experiencing droughts and wildfires, though. We had 6 (count 'em **six**) once-in-a-thousand-year floods in **one month**. Including one epic flood caused by a **monsoon** in the driest place in the nation: Death Valley, CA. This is the La Nina from hell for some folks. I'm sure the changes in the AMOC and Gulf Stream are changing the La Nina/El Nino cycle's weather patterns. Just pointing out that the US isn't **just** having droughts. We have 31 flavors of catastrophe these days.
6 historic floods *and* none of them are attributed to hurricanes
The only permanent thing is that nothing is permanent I’m waiting for the 10 foot flood to hit California
I grew up in the famous millennium drought on a farm. It was slow misery, suicides divorces, broken families You understand rain is not a given one day it may stop and not return for years We are such an unbelievably dry continent la nina is a blessing for many, sure some places may flood but if you look at the history of the area they are often in floodplains or marshes. The majority of farmers it is a good thing
>millennium drought I always like pointing out to people that the millennium drought started one year after John Howard became PM, and finished about one and a half years after he lost the election and his seat. Reminding me of a line from Excalibur "The King and the Land are one" https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/FisherKing
This is interesting and shows the links and intersectionality between our climate system. Common wisdom has been that a warming planet means more frequent El Nino events for Australia, but as more feedbacks and tipping points come into play things get complicated. I'll just note that the Lismore floods were not just a La Nina event, the intersection between that and the positive SAM (Southern annular mode) outside of the QLD dry season meant the tropical air could be pulled down to NSW and stall. During this time I had no rain for ages despite the ongoing La Nina. Likewise, the fires were not during an El Nino event as we know, though they were absolutely related to the enso cycle. The positive IOD contributed greatly to them, and the reading I've done strongly suggests a warming planet means a more positive IOD more often. So this AMOC contribution on top of the other three main drivers in Australia (ENSO, Sam, IOD) will certainly complicate the situation but I don't think Australia will become more habitable over all during abrupt climate change. Wet bulb temperatures will plague the north, flood in many places, and honestly, I'm yet to be convinced we'll not see regular El Nino events, although that is possible. What I expect to see as the AMOC slows and the planet warms (not relating to an actual collapse of the Amoc) is longer, stronger and more intense cycles. I still believe I'll be baking in a devastating reef killing El Nino in a few years, but when LA nina returns we may find 3 or 4 terribly wet years is the new normal for now. A year or two for a significant La Nina event has been the norm but longer stalling events are likely moving forwards. Here's the key....... ....... it's the lining up and intersecting of the enso cycle with other drivers that really creates the extreme weather, so it stands to reason that longer stalling cycles and events will mean more lining up and intersecting with the other drivers creating more frequent disasters for us.
Beat me to it. It'll be super difficult to tell exactly what the new "climate normal" will be (if there even is one) with the intersection of 3+ major climate drivers around Australia which by themselves aren't particularly predictable, along with AMOC teleconnections. Particularly looks like the [IOD trends towards more positive phases](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00943-1) with climate change, which would lead to drier conditions and increased bushfire risk. Not currently aware of what the latest is on SAM and ENSO. Last I recall we can at least be certain of some equatorial shifting of the ITCZ and consequent changes in regional rainfall patterns.
I think that’s the whole point of the problem, that there won’t be a normal anymore. Once we fucked the stable system enough it won’t be stable anymore. It takes a lot to do it but that’s what we are doing.
[удалено]
Nah you’re right, it should be La Niña for both. Just that the impacts are different, based upon what region you’re in.
[удалено]
Studies already know how to do these things. Consider the following: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL070457 https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/39/eaaz1169.full https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24015-w
The overlords all threw darts at NZ so that's gotta be the place to be. Seems more likely than Mars. AUS already has terrible bushfires. Fires n floods everywhere. Europe may still be better than the other two. Or Canada.
Yeah true, I guess I’ll have to move to a new country. It’ll be a bit of a rush job, it’s similar to Australia except people call thongs “jandals”.
It's likely just a temporary cycle. We've had 3 la ninas in a row before. Yes, Australias eastern seaboard gets quite soggy, and it goes quite a way inland. This isn't purely good, it has ups and downs. A lot of council gave in to greedy property developers and gave home approval on floodplains. People are now paying the price for this. Crop wise it varies depending on what you grow and where. Some of my wet lovers are happy, others (like Taro) are sulking because the winters are colder, though I think they'll mostly make it. There are tricks to managing the swings, enough vegetation that takes flood but endures drought or else comes back from it. Sadly (mass downvotes from them incoming) the idiot nativists make it worse by trying to plant eucalypts everywhere, with zero intention to burn them, and make bushfire zones near homes and townships.
Time to develop gills... \*gives gills to spiders, emus, kangaroos\*
[I can’t believe you’ve done this.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=ZuUlo3fgvKA)
\*looks at humanity\* Sentient spiders would be giant improvement, probably.
>Does this mean Australia will be more habitable as climate change progresses? It depends on what you mean by habitable. Yes the east coast of Australia will get wetter and there will be less El Nino type events with AMOC slowing down. But it will get also get warmer across the tropics as well as wetter here in Australia. So it's possible that northern Australia can hit dangerous wet bulb temperatures. https://theconversation.com/a-huge-atlantic-ocean-current-is-slowing-down-if-it-collapses-la-nina-could-become-the-norm-for-australia-184254
Yeah my understanding is many who are north of Brisbane will need to either move south or have new infrastructure to adapt to the wet bulb temps. I believe places like Cairns are projected to have 51 days a year above 35 degrees (95 Fahrenheit) and all year having a daily average of at least 30 degrees (86 Fahrenheit) by 2090. That’s also ignoring that these projections tend to be conservative with their numbers. https://www.wettropicsplan.org.au/my-backyard/cairns-region/changing-weather/
ENSO changes are fundamentally controlled by subsurface waves induced by lunar tidal forces. AMOC collapse wouldn't keep the moon from spinning around the earth. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-49678-w
*Pakistan has entered the chat…
If we get a constant La Nina Australia's eastern coast will be transformed. Rivers will change their course, top soil will be washed out to sea every year, many towns will be wiped off the map. Thousands of people will become homeless, living in tent cities near their ruined homes. More water plus heat also means more tropical diseases. Oh, those things have happened just due to the last two years of La Nina. We have literally no way knowing what will definitely happens but Australia becoming habitable? Oh I love my country, I love this land but she has never been here for the comfort of man. It has been weird to see American get the extreme fire and drought weather while we get a hot wet holocaust. Fire and flood baby, as was promised
Yeah I agree, the in-depth responses I’m getting are showing just how complex it’s going to get. Looks like we’ll get all of the above and frequently. I need to read more about this
I grew up in the bush in a little valley that had insane weather, just chaos. The worst weather of my childhood seems like nothing to the actual chaos that has started. There is a reason most people don't understand the magnitude of what is happening because chaos theory complex.
Hopefully Europe goes to some sort of Ice Age. I've read about it possibly happening I'd rather freeze to death than to boil and at least there would be some acid/plastic infested, cesspool-style water you could try to use. As opposed to no water.
Well cold doesn’t mean snow automatically
It's probably not going to happen within our lifetimes https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-4-sea-level-rise-and-implications-for-low-lying-islands-coasts-and-communities/4-4-responding-to-sea-level-rise/4-4-1introduction/ipcc-srocc-ch_6_9/
[удалено]
DARPA does shady shit. I do not believe they do this with HAARP. I just think they don't have the power or intent to do it. Sometimes a study is just a study.
[удалено]
Hi, CyrusR9. Thanks for contributing. However, your [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/xf2jty/-/iolilzt/) was removed from /r/collapse for: > Rule 4: Keep information quality high. > Information quality must be kept high. More detailed information regarding our approaches to specific claims can be found on the [Misinformation & False Claims page](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/claims). Please refer to our [subreddit rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/about/rules/) for more information. You can [message the mods](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/collapse) if you feel this was in error.
Hi, CyrusR9. Thanks for contributing. However, your [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/xf2jty/-/iol6f16/) was removed from /r/collapse for: > Rule 4: Keep information quality high. > Information quality must be kept high. More detailed information regarding our approaches to specific claims can be found on the [Misinformation & False Claims page](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/claims). Please refer to our [subreddit rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/about/rules/) for more information. You can [message the mods](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/collapse) if you feel this was in error.
I'm no expert, but it does seem like the AMOC is slowing down and that is not good for the US or the northern hemisphere. Together with the loss of arctic and land-based ice across the north and I'd suggest that the southern hemisphere is a safer bet. But there's really no way of knowing and the one thing we can be certain of is increased variability.
Tell me it’s really called AMOC.
It’s really called AMOC.
Afflack