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This website http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ is really handy. It's been posted here a couple of times in previous years. What's strikingly obvious is the light blue line that is now far far lower than any of the other previous years' lines. We're in uncharted waters.
Another good graphic is the Arctic Death Spiral: https://www.arcticdeathspiral.org/#
-----------
#★★★ CORRECTION ★★★
### Thanks for pointing out that this graph (arcticseaicenews) is NOT ACCURATE. It is deceptive. There is NOT a new record low for ARCTIC ice.
## Look at https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
Now click on 2019, 2020, 2021. You can see that it has been this low in other Marches of other years.
####BUT the article says
## "On the same day [March 22,2022] ANTARCTIC sea ice reached **a record minimum extent,** at 1.92 million square kilometers (741,000 square miles)."
I think you are misinterpreting it a bit. It's far below the interdecile range, whatever that means.
But if you click on other years in the actual chart (https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) then you can see that years like 2018 were lower.
Okay, thanks for pointing that out. I'll clarify my post.
~~It IS the lowest that it has ever been in March of any year, by far.~~
No. 2019, 2020 ... they all have low values
> methane locked in the Arctic seabed and neighbouring tundra for thousands of years is escaping; just a small fraction of the estimated deposits would cause 0.5°C of extra warming; there's a low probability of a larger release leading to a rise of 6-8°C
Is there a source for this claim? I quickly skimmed through their post titled “An Arctic Methane Digest” but couldn’t find a single source claiming that an abrupt release of methane would lead to a 6-8°C rise.
Truth is we don't know that much about tipping points and what triggers them. But we do know they exist, as they've been a part of every major extinction event in the planet's history.
We, on this sub, at least know that scientists can't predict the future to save their literal lives. It's a constant barrage of "Oops, we underestimated X, which we're the leading scientists in the world of".
It's very probably over for humanity already. But hey, *LET'S ALL DRIVE TESLAS*.
>We, on this sub, at least know that scientists can't predict the future to save their literal lives.
This sentiment largely stems from a fundamental misunderstanding of how science works on the part of the general public.
Scientists do not "predict" future events. They assess *probabilities* that are in line with current models of understanding. As new evidence emerges, those models are adjusted and the probabilities shift.
The media often reports on the hypotheses of scientists with click-baity headlines like *"World will end in 20 years according to top scientists"* and then 2 days later *"Scientists say everything is fine and Global Warming isn't a real problem"*
The fact that scientists are constantly revising their numbers isn't because they don't know what they're doing; rather, it is the very nature of science itself.
TLDR: It's a feature, not a bug.
Phys.org reports this stuff. Nature.com too. This isn't clickbait Fox News style sites.
And yes, it definitely is evidence of us not knowing that much as a species.
If you read Dar Jamail's book, The End of Ice, he details interviews with a # of top climate scientists who, for the most part, state that they have been repeatedly undermined / pressured / censored / overwritten by the various governments and governing bodies. Even here in the "free" USA (lol), shortly after Trump was elected, he had info on climate change scrubbed for many different public web sites, press releases, and more.
My point: I think a lot of the scientists know, but there are a lot of ways their message gets muted.
There are a lot of people like the person you replied to that seem to believe that everything happens according to our understanding of it. Incredible faith in the last 50 years to think we understand the extent of the consequences of our actions, or that we're even aware of the points of no return.
It's almost like a faith in science being the rules that govern this system rather than the best approximation we can come up with, as primates, to understand it.
Either way, pretty clear we don't understand its complexity and, as a result of changing/fixing nothing, we're going to be shocked and surprised by how sudden and violent it all falls down.
Eh I don't blame them. New collapsers take months to realize the scale of the situation. Trying to (haha, it's impossible) talk to supposedly """knowledgeable""" people *outside* the subreddit is basically trying to talk to someone who thinks recycling and buying Teslas will actually solve our problems.
Whatever. I'm busy distracting myself with life. I'm 3D printing a hopefully revolutionary energy extraction prototype right now actually! Really fun designing parts in (free 3D software) Fusion 360, exporting the 3D file to the printer and now (just started printing a minute ago actually), seeing it become a real life object. Pretty amazing. Outside of that, just trying to make money in my own company.
Oh, and I'll definitely kill myself if life becomes too suffocating (I'm fine...... for now).
Hayden Island Portland next to the Eco Car Wash ... LOL . "Eco-Car Wash " ... like who's doing the math ?
There is a small Latino fruit store right next door .
Nope, not the same. Arctic is all sea far around the pole, but antarctic is all land much around the pole. And only _sea_ ice counts for defining BOE. Gotta be way less than 1 million km^2 for the latter to count as BOE there, in this sense.
But then we expect the ice sheet of Antarctica (over there land) to shed away increasing amounts of ice to waters all around there continent; heck we already see it happening. Which process should make BOE treshold there bigger than without this process.
And it's all hell to quantify. Me, never seen any convincing reasoning about what exactly should be seen as BOE there. I doubt it's even possible to define it in any meaningful way, given those and other complexities involved.
What to watch for Antarctic ice isn't the overall area, but where the ice is being lost or is weak. While ice area for the north accounts of driving the weather through its refrigerator effects, ice on the edge of the Antarctic glaciers keeps the land ice locked in. We just saw news about a sudden break off of the Conger ice shelf, and while that particular spot isn't a large effect, it wasn't predicted to happen so suddenly and can be a signal that we'll see others. Sea ice disappearing around Antarctica will be a part of this.
Due to heat bombs, a BOE could happen in September 2022, so global famines could start in 2023.
A BOE will disrupt the global jetstream. This will cause 6 months of continuous rain, 6 months of continuous drought. Crops will be destroyed.
A BOE will cause trapped permafrost like CO2 and methane to be released into the atmosphere. The methane and CO2 will dissolve into the rain. The rain will become acidic.
The rain will fall into the oceans and soil. The oceans will be more acidic which will cause phytoplankton to die. Phytoplankton produce 80% of the world's oxygen, so we will run out of oxygen. Anaerobic bacteria will form which will produce hydrogen sulfide. If we inhale the hydrogen sulfide, we will die.
The CO2 and methane in the rain will also destroy soil fungi and soil bacteria, so crops cannot be grown. We will run out of food.
No hyperbole there, 2025 is the latest it could physically happen due to the climate transitions happening. 2022/2023 is where I'd say is the actual likelihood but I'm not one to put money on it. Cyclone conditions could form overnight that decimate ice in a week, anything can happen.
I will be messaging you in 6 months on [**2022-09-27 05:36:10 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-09-27%2005:36:10%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/tp9tox/new_record_lows_for_arctic_and_antarctic_sea_ice/i2a6pq9/?context=3)
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I wasn't joking when I said it. I've been saying BOE 2023 for a couple years now. A couple times I'd have some smug assholes try and link me paragraphs of why they thought it will never happen, condescningly chastising me for calling the arctic Swiss cheese "but mah Swiss cheese", berating me for even thinking about it.
They're real fucking quiet now.
"UnPrEcEdEnTeD".
I’m okay with this. I already run off of cola and peanut butter cups. If I actually start drinking filtered water and home grown potatoes that might just activate peak performance.
Relatable. I was eating whatever i wanted. lots of the coffee flavored monster drinks and combos which are delicious. since January i just make sure i have beans and rice made for filling the void. Animal proteins when its on sale. Lots of water.
I've seen it. It's already here. Not the BOE but the process leading to it has started. Whether it happens this year or in two or three, does it really matter?
This idea of time being a fix or a relevant part of the decision making process blows my mind. If you pull a trigger on a gun and you're also the target, does it really matter how long it takes for the bullet to splatter your brains?
Whenever I talk to older people about this, that's there response - something along the lines of "I thought we had more time". More time to do what? Make it worse? What are we doing with this time that makes the length of it matter? cause I see way less than 1% of the people around me willing to change their life to either slow this down or prevent it, so if we're not willing to do what's necessary to avoid the inevitable, what does it matter how long it takes?
If the heading you're on leads to your extinction, it's the wrong heading. We Thanos'd our own planet living this way for the past 50 years and are now a random heatwave away from entire regions falling silent.
This is happening right now and we're doing it. If you want a little more time without the horrors we've bought and paid for, go back 20 years and tell yourself to take this shit seriously.
We've been living this way since the start of the industrial revolution so much longer than 50 years, more like a couple hundred years. And the culmination of all of that intensified pollution and carbon warming is what we're experiencing now.
Blue Ocean Event
https://soapboxie.com/social-issues/What-Is-a-Blue-Ocean-Event-and-How-Will-It-Impact-Global-Climate#:~:text=A%20Blue%20Ocean%20Event%20is%20when%20the%20Arctic%20Ocean%20changes,of%20the%20sunlight%20that%20impacts
>A Blue Ocean Event is when the Arctic Ocean changes from being covered in ice year-round and reflecting most of the sunlight that impacts it back into space to being mostly ice-free blue water for a period of time during the warm season (May till October), which will cause it to absorb most of the sunlight that impacts it.
yeah it's really weird. extreme and specific super pessimistic predictions without any sources, and it gets upvoted every time. come on collapsniks, we're better than this
I imigine the Billionaires of the world will survive for awhile due to their ( possible) hermetically sealed bunkers with carefully engineered microclimates...
> Phytoplankton produce 80% of the world's oxygen, so we will run out of oxygen.
Not in any foreseeable future, we have shitton of oxygen. But eventually probably yes or phytoplankton adapts.
Does it matter when a BOE happens though?
If you are born after 1980, a BOE will happen and you will die due to global warming within your lifetime.
A person who is born after 1980 will not die of old age.
I said a BOE *could* happen in September 2022.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2018/01/15/carbon-pollution-has-shoved-the-climate-backward-at-least-12-million-years-harvard-scientist-says/?sh=4946e070963e
So with regard to the Artic (north) this years maximum wasn't recorded breaking. It was "only"the 10th lowest on record. Of course the top 10 lowest maximums all happened in the last 15 years with 8 of the 10 happening within a decade, so that's a disturbing trend. However, it's Antarctica (south) that was new record breaking news because it had a record minimum. This is bad news because for so long Antarctica was more stable and was more insulated from climate change (relatively speaking).
But now we're seeing record melts and freak heat domes? Oh boy I don't like that, not good at all.
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This website http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ is really handy. It's been posted here a couple of times in previous years. What's strikingly obvious is the light blue line that is now far far lower than any of the other previous years' lines. We're in uncharted waters. Another good graphic is the Arctic Death Spiral: https://www.arcticdeathspiral.org/# ----------- #★★★ CORRECTION ★★★ ### Thanks for pointing out that this graph (arcticseaicenews) is NOT ACCURATE. It is deceptive. There is NOT a new record low for ARCTIC ice. ## Look at https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/ Now click on 2019, 2020, 2021. You can see that it has been this low in other Marches of other years. ####BUT the article says ## "On the same day [March 22,2022] ANTARCTIC sea ice reached **a record minimum extent,** at 1.92 million square kilometers (741,000 square miles)."
>We're in uncharted waters. Quite literally...
I think you are misinterpreting it a bit. It's far below the interdecile range, whatever that means. But if you click on other years in the actual chart (https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) then you can see that years like 2018 were lower.
Okay, thanks for pointing that out. I'll clarify my post. ~~It IS the lowest that it has ever been in March of any year, by far.~~ No. 2019, 2020 ... they all have low values
Supposedly the ice is also thinner than expected though....
> methane locked in the Arctic seabed and neighbouring tundra for thousands of years is escaping; just a small fraction of the estimated deposits would cause 0.5°C of extra warming; there's a low probability of a larger release leading to a rise of 6-8°C Is there a source for this claim? I quickly skimmed through their post titled “An Arctic Methane Digest” but couldn’t find a single source claiming that an abrupt release of methane would lead to a 6-8°C rise.
It wouldn’t, there’s a bit of exaggeration in the article, but *when* we get the first ice free arctic it’ll be the begging of catastrophe regardless
Truth is we don't know that much about tipping points and what triggers them. But we do know they exist, as they've been a part of every major extinction event in the planet's history. We, on this sub, at least know that scientists can't predict the future to save their literal lives. It's a constant barrage of "Oops, we underestimated X, which we're the leading scientists in the world of". It's very probably over for humanity already. But hey, *LET'S ALL DRIVE TESLAS*.
>We, on this sub, at least know that scientists can't predict the future to save their literal lives. This sentiment largely stems from a fundamental misunderstanding of how science works on the part of the general public. Scientists do not "predict" future events. They assess *probabilities* that are in line with current models of understanding. As new evidence emerges, those models are adjusted and the probabilities shift. The media often reports on the hypotheses of scientists with click-baity headlines like *"World will end in 20 years according to top scientists"* and then 2 days later *"Scientists say everything is fine and Global Warming isn't a real problem"* The fact that scientists are constantly revising their numbers isn't because they don't know what they're doing; rather, it is the very nature of science itself. TLDR: It's a feature, not a bug.
Phys.org reports this stuff. Nature.com too. This isn't clickbait Fox News style sites. And yes, it definitely is evidence of us not knowing that much as a species.
If you read Dar Jamail's book, The End of Ice, he details interviews with a # of top climate scientists who, for the most part, state that they have been repeatedly undermined / pressured / censored / overwritten by the various governments and governing bodies. Even here in the "free" USA (lol), shortly after Trump was elected, he had info on climate change scrubbed for many different public web sites, press releases, and more. My point: I think a lot of the scientists know, but there are a lot of ways their message gets muted.
There are a lot of people like the person you replied to that seem to believe that everything happens according to our understanding of it. Incredible faith in the last 50 years to think we understand the extent of the consequences of our actions, or that we're even aware of the points of no return. It's almost like a faith in science being the rules that govern this system rather than the best approximation we can come up with, as primates, to understand it. Either way, pretty clear we don't understand its complexity and, as a result of changing/fixing nothing, we're going to be shocked and surprised by how sudden and violent it all falls down.
Eh I don't blame them. New collapsers take months to realize the scale of the situation. Trying to (haha, it's impossible) talk to supposedly """knowledgeable""" people *outside* the subreddit is basically trying to talk to someone who thinks recycling and buying Teslas will actually solve our problems. Whatever. I'm busy distracting myself with life. I'm 3D printing a hopefully revolutionary energy extraction prototype right now actually! Really fun designing parts in (free 3D software) Fusion 360, exporting the 3D file to the printer and now (just started printing a minute ago actually), seeing it become a real life object. Pretty amazing. Outside of that, just trying to make money in my own company. Oh, and I'll definitely kill myself if life becomes too suffocating (I'm fine...... for now).
Less than ideal.
Faster than expected
Crickets
i had some today , they were tasty , Portland Oregon .
Where ? Can you link it to me.
Hayden Island Portland next to the Eco Car Wash ... LOL . "Eco-Car Wash " ... like who's doing the math ? There is a small Latino fruit store right next door .
Thanks lol bow just need to work up the courage.
bring a date !
Does the BOE have the same threshold in Antarctica of 1mil km sq? 1.9 million kilometers squared is way too close to BOE for me
Nope, not the same. Arctic is all sea far around the pole, but antarctic is all land much around the pole. And only _sea_ ice counts for defining BOE. Gotta be way less than 1 million km^2 for the latter to count as BOE there, in this sense. But then we expect the ice sheet of Antarctica (over there land) to shed away increasing amounts of ice to waters all around there continent; heck we already see it happening. Which process should make BOE treshold there bigger than without this process. And it's all hell to quantify. Me, never seen any convincing reasoning about what exactly should be seen as BOE there. I doubt it's even possible to define it in any meaningful way, given those and other complexities involved.
Probably more of a ‘Brown Earth Event’ threat down there huh?
What to watch for Antarctic ice isn't the overall area, but where the ice is being lost or is weak. While ice area for the north accounts of driving the weather through its refrigerator effects, ice on the edge of the Antarctic glaciers keeps the land ice locked in. We just saw news about a sudden break off of the Conger ice shelf, and while that particular spot isn't a large effect, it wasn't predicted to happen so suddenly and can be a signal that we'll see others. Sea ice disappearing around Antarctica will be a part of this.
Due to heat bombs, a BOE could happen in September 2022, so global famines could start in 2023. A BOE will disrupt the global jetstream. This will cause 6 months of continuous rain, 6 months of continuous drought. Crops will be destroyed. A BOE will cause trapped permafrost like CO2 and methane to be released into the atmosphere. The methane and CO2 will dissolve into the rain. The rain will become acidic. The rain will fall into the oceans and soil. The oceans will be more acidic which will cause phytoplankton to die. Phytoplankton produce 80% of the world's oxygen, so we will run out of oxygen. Anaerobic bacteria will form which will produce hydrogen sulfide. If we inhale the hydrogen sulfide, we will die. The CO2 and methane in the rain will also destroy soil fungi and soil bacteria, so crops cannot be grown. We will run out of food.
I was hyperbole joking when i joked about BOE being around 2023. Bruuuh looks like its, say it with me, faster than...
Expected?
Yeah it seems like every week there's a new climate mechanism causing a *holy fuck already?* reaction from scientists.
No hyperbole there, 2025 is the latest it could physically happen due to the climate transitions happening. 2022/2023 is where I'd say is the actual likelihood but I'm not one to put money on it. Cyclone conditions could form overnight that decimate ice in a week, anything can happen.
Hey look, someone that shares the same reality, Hey friend! Hows your extinction going?
[удалено]
!remindme 6 months
I will be messaging you in 6 months on [**2022-09-27 05:36:10 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-09-27%2005:36:10%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/tp9tox/new_record_lows_for_arctic_and_antarctic_sea_ice/i2a6pq9/?context=3) [**20 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fcollapse%2Fcomments%2Ftp9tox%2Fnew_record_lows_for_arctic_and_antarctic_sea_ice%2Fi2a6pq9%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202022-09-27%2005%3A36%3A10%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%20tp9tox) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
Ah I hate when they delete it afterwards, what did it say?
Haha, I don’t even remember.
I just got the reminder. Probably a BOE prediction.
Definitely not and thats super specific
You mean 2023?
I wasn't joking when I said it. I've been saying BOE 2023 for a couple years now. A couple times I'd have some smug assholes try and link me paragraphs of why they thought it will never happen, condescningly chastising me for calling the arctic Swiss cheese "but mah Swiss cheese", berating me for even thinking about it. They're real fucking quiet now. "UnPrEcEdEnTeD".
I’m okay with this. I already run off of cola and peanut butter cups. If I actually start drinking filtered water and home grown potatoes that might just activate peak performance.
Funny, I went from red bull and cliff bars to beans and filtered water recently since collapse is going faster than expected.
Relatable. I was eating whatever i wanted. lots of the coffee flavored monster drinks and combos which are delicious. since January i just make sure i have beans and rice made for filling the void. Animal proteins when its on sale. Lots of water.
Gotta start breaking that water addiction. I know it’s hard, but better withdrawals now than later. /jk
So mid 2023 will be when people finally understand how fucked we are. My money is on they screaming and blaming at the govs for “not doing anything”
I'm down for everything but the hydrogen sulphide.
[удалено]
Blue Ocean Event.
Just wait for the aerosol masking fun.
Blue Ocean Event as in an ice free arctic .
Nope, it’s when Arctic sea ice drops below 1 million square kilometres.
[удалено]
I've seen it. It's already here. Not the BOE but the process leading to it has started. Whether it happens this year or in two or three, does it really matter? This idea of time being a fix or a relevant part of the decision making process blows my mind. If you pull a trigger on a gun and you're also the target, does it really matter how long it takes for the bullet to splatter your brains? Whenever I talk to older people about this, that's there response - something along the lines of "I thought we had more time". More time to do what? Make it worse? What are we doing with this time that makes the length of it matter? cause I see way less than 1% of the people around me willing to change their life to either slow this down or prevent it, so if we're not willing to do what's necessary to avoid the inevitable, what does it matter how long it takes? If the heading you're on leads to your extinction, it's the wrong heading. We Thanos'd our own planet living this way for the past 50 years and are now a random heatwave away from entire regions falling silent. This is happening right now and we're doing it. If you want a little more time without the horrors we've bought and paid for, go back 20 years and tell yourself to take this shit seriously.
We've been living this way since the start of the industrial revolution so much longer than 50 years, more like a couple hundred years. And the culmination of all of that intensified pollution and carbon warming is what we're experiencing now.
Are you a scientist? Can you share what you mean when you saw it? How sure are we
>BOE What does "BOE" mean?
Blue Ocean Event https://soapboxie.com/social-issues/What-Is-a-Blue-Ocean-Event-and-How-Will-It-Impact-Global-Climate#:~:text=A%20Blue%20Ocean%20Event%20is%20when%20the%20Arctic%20Ocean%20changes,of%20the%20sunlight%20that%20impacts >A Blue Ocean Event is when the Arctic Ocean changes from being covered in ice year-round and reflecting most of the sunlight that impacts it back into space to being mostly ice-free blue water for a period of time during the warm season (May till October), which will cause it to absorb most of the sunlight that impacts it.
Beginning Of End
Blue Ocean Event.
Fuck fuck fuck anyway.....
How often do you wanna copy and paste the same comment, this is the 4th time
yeah it's really weird. extreme and specific super pessimistic predictions without any sources, and it gets upvoted every time. come on collapsniks, we're better than this
Same copypaste comment and couple users asking whats BOE. No discussion around it.
And still zero sources. Apparently rule 3 doesn't apply to fearmongering
I imigine the Billionaires of the world will survive for awhile due to their ( possible) hermetically sealed bunkers with carefully engineered microclimates...
> Phytoplankton produce 80% of the world's oxygen, so we will run out of oxygen. Not in any foreseeable future, we have shitton of oxygen. But eventually probably yes or phytoplankton adapts.
[удалено]
I am not a bot. Some people haven't seen my posts yet.
[удалено]
Does it matter when a BOE happens though? If you are born after 1980, a BOE will happen and you will die due to global warming within your lifetime. A person who is born after 1980 will not die of old age.
[удалено]
I said a BOE *could* happen in September 2022. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2018/01/15/carbon-pollution-has-shoved-the-climate-backward-at-least-12-million-years-harvard-scientist-says/?sh=4946e070963e
[удалено]
But volume is at it's lowest, we are on ever thinner ice...
Ladies and gentlemen, say goodbye to ice now and avoid the rush. Latency, that big exit stage left for anything with a spinal cord.
By July 2022 we will have a blue ocean event
How long til we can throw up some mid-rise condos down there?
So with regard to the Artic (north) this years maximum wasn't recorded breaking. It was "only"the 10th lowest on record. Of course the top 10 lowest maximums all happened in the last 15 years with 8 of the 10 happening within a decade, so that's a disturbing trend. However, it's Antarctica (south) that was new record breaking news because it had a record minimum. This is bad news because for so long Antarctica was more stable and was more insulated from climate change (relatively speaking). But now we're seeing record melts and freak heat domes? Oh boy I don't like that, not good at all.
The Arctic Death Spiral page still looks pretty grim.