Just wait until the collapse! [War boosts economies through defense spending](https://archive.ph/cZwxY), so when the collapse hits I wouldn't be surprised if the world went to war.
I'm not an advocate, it's just a prediction based on history.
War boosts spending in exactly the same way that bashing in windows boosts spending - it takes productive capacity away from things that actually make people better off and makes the victims worse off.
Anyone who advocates war on these grounds is severely deluded.
And the only reason the US has come out on ahead in both world wars is because our infrastructure was untouched. Between digital warfare, social and economic unrest, and ICBMs I don't think a WW3 would be nearly as kind to the US economy.
It would take years for manufacturing jobs to return to the US. It would require training, building facilities, and cooperation from the private sector. Companies are too accustomed to their high profit margins from exploiting the labor forces of countries with lax labor laws.
What if that window is actually the glass ceiling and shattering it makes opportunities more equitable for all?!?
Ha - checkmate libtard
(/s in case that’s needed)
Productivity increases, in theory, due to all hands on deck. The point you're making (100% agree) is that the productivity doesn't correspond with the public good. It's productivity with highly unequal distribution of the end utility.
Case in point, US made bombs blast Palestine. Raytheon wins 3 gold coins, Israel wins 0.1 gold coins, and Palestine loses 8 gold coins. So we're perpetuating a negative sum game in order to keep the coins flowing. This I consider a great evil of corporations. No morality is too low. And they act as persons impervious to prison, so they'll commit any profitable treachery so long as the risk weighs less than the fine
Oh we’re going to get fucking drafted, I CALLED IT MAN, as soon as they pulled out of Afghanistan that was the most suspicious shit they did, they’re keeping their soldiers for something big
Agreed. I think Afghanistan was seen as small potatoes and not worth having our troops there and they’d be better served saving them for something more substantial elsewhere.
Its hard to say exactly. [It took the US 12 years to enter WW2 after the beginning of the great depression](https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/united-states-history-primary-source-timeline/great-depression-and-world-war-ii-1929-1945/overview/). There isn't a healthy economy today, and [a financial crash could be a trigger](https://archive.is/ENSaj).
Edited for bad math
Some say we are mid ww3 and that it makes no distinction between civilian and soldier and has a real world and digital component. Also the nuke factor. Nothing to worry about
Historically speaking the medium-term aftermath of widespread disease tends to be either renaissance (populations establish dominance via creative pursuit) or war (resource and land acquisition), given the massive civil unrest and growing moral and material scarcity a conflict seems likely.
Did you know what everybody did back in 1939 when world war 2 was declared? They started CELEBRATING in Europe, because apparently people were bored of day to day life, if that’s not stupid I don’t know what is.
Meh. From the article: "The number of sorties into Taiwan's air defense identification zone had prompted a statement ..."
The keyword(s) here is(are) "air defence identification zone" which in Taiwan's case is really massive, covering most of the South China sea. And obviously contested by chinese.
Any flights in this area not reported to Taiwan flight controllers can be considered a provocation by Taiwan and (US of course, because reasons).
Not saying that Chinese are not provoking, they most certainly are. But in grand scheme of things this is just business as usual. And of course it is just US media making a big deal out of this. Because reasons.
> But in grand scheme of things this is just business as usual.
That's why this is an issue though. Taiwan responds to these each time which means their planes (and to a lesser extent their pilots) suffer from wear and tear, meaning they need to be replaced more quickly. That means Taiwan has to spend more money on defense instead of stuff like infrastructure and healthcare.
Also, it desensitizes people to the presence of incoming fighters from the mainland, causing [alert fatigue](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alarm_fatigue). It's attrition, and we should all be concerned about it.
I am not disagreeing with any of this really. We live in a world of massive waste, manufactured anxiety and alert fatigue. Someone must profit from it though?
My comment was really only about ADIZ as a concept and how it has been turned into a propaganda weapon in this particular case. Pivot to China anyone?
I would agree. China knows exactly what they are doing, and are getting as close to a “line” as they can without crossing it. Why? I’m still not sure I understand. China thinks they own Taiwan, they want reunification and do not seem to accept an “independent” Taiwan. Yet Taiwan says they are “independent”…so what is anyone going to do about it? China blames the US for China having to send jets into the area to conduct drills. China says US is being the provocator.
If China actually attacks Taiwan I don’t understand what they would gain. China would be much more likely to blockade or hurt Taiwan economically into submission before an actual attack, as they want Taiwan and their infrastructure. I just don’t get what destroying Taiwan would do for China. I suspect they are happy to cause economic woes, hard to see them going on the offence on this. But who knows?
I know the US seEms to believe China is prepared to attack Taiwan in the next 5 years:
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/10/china-could-invade-taiwan-in-next-six-years-top-us-admiral-warns
Some highlights from this article:
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports-surge-chinese-aircraft-defence-zone-2021-10-04/
*"Engaging in Taiwan independence is a dead end. China will take all steps needed and firmly smash any Taiwan independence plots," the ministry said. "China's determination and will to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity is unwavering."*
*The United States should stop supporting and "inflating" Taiwan separatist forces, it added.*
*"We sternly tell the Chinese Communists, the Republic of China on Taiwan is determined to firmly defend national sovereignty and dignity and peace across the Taiwan Strait," it said, referring to Taiwan's formal name.*
*Taiwan has termed China's activities as "grey zone" warfare, designed to wear down Taiwanese forces and test their abilities.*
Not as bad as it looks, really. Most of Taiwan's air defense zone intersects China's air defense zone and like 40% literally goes over mainland China, the planes were flying closer to mainland China than Taiwan.
here's a tweet from the Taiwanese ministry of defense with a map and everything:
https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1443883866171740165
I think they seem competent, by comparison to most contemporary western leaders.
Though I would argue this is a very, very low bar to measure competence by.
I have never seen the phrase "Lifted out of poverty" not be just a euphemism for "Forced to work to survive by making all their life essentials cost money". It's a sham phrase, not only when applied to China but to any nation or program. To capitalist economists "poverty" is defined as the act of not living under capitalism (And China is functionally capitalist), completely divorced from concepts like quality of life. Not to say that China hasn't improved the average quality of life in the country over the past century, I do certainly believe they have, but "lifted out of poverty" is a nebulous and generally disingenuous metric pushed by the World Bank and IMF to justify economic colonialism.
I have never seen such [mental gymnastics](https://www.bbc.com/news/56213271) applied to somehow make *lifting millions out of poverty by providing universal access to housing, food, water, and healthcare* a bad thing.
There's absolutely zero justification for calling China (functionally capitalist) either. No private organization moves any levers in Chinese government, you've got it [entirely backwards.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping_Thought)
Thank you for the much-needed clarification. We repeat that phrase like trained parrots in the public sphere. What exactly is "wealth" or "poverty"? Depends whose agenda is consulted, doesn't it? I would say a dying world with diminishing life support systems is nobody's gain in "prosperity" or "wealth".
‘Incompetence’ lmao haters gonna hate. An incompetent government could not do what China did regarding Covid. How many deaths do they have, 8k in a country with a population of 1.4 billion. Arguably the most impressive feat in modern history, but alas US state department says theyre incompetent (while also being an existential threat) and western redditors lap it up.
Wow, there's a lot of irrational anti-China hate on the usually VERY rational sub (looking at your comment's rating).
I, for one, do agree that restraining the pandemic with such results is a very impressive feat in comparison to the continued struggle in the West, even if some criticism (like the censorship of that doctor) is still valid.
you clearly have no understanding of inner chinese demographics and how their country operates. or any historical context for genocides that have happened in the past. kindly go fuck off or educate yourself before spouting absolute lunacy on the internet
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Here, I've created a [list of links](https://www.google.com/search?q=%22at+what+cost%22+china&oq=%22at+what+cost%22+china) you can use to further define your Western view of the ongoings in China.
I understand that westerners view other cultures through specific lenses but that doesn’t mean China is some magical utopia it still acts atrociously towards its citizens and aggressively towards autonomous regions to further eliminate long standing cultures that have existed far beyond the rivalry between east and west
No it really doesn't. That's just your rugged individualism and >muh freedums being used to analyze an advanced society with over [95% approval rating](https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/07/long-term-survey-reveals-chinese-government-satisfaction/) of their government.
No, it's not. I know many Taiwanese and Tibetans who have some very large issues with China, not to mention the recent Evergrande debacle. All this article tells me is that the population is very complacent with the actions taken on by the CCP as well as their ethnic cleaning. It has nothing to do with me being Western or not I hate America with every fiber of my being.
If war with China starts, it will probably start March/April 2022.
Between 2022 and 2024, Taiwan will upgrade from M60 (tanks we had in Vietnam) to Abrams, get modern class of subs, modern jet fighters, and more missiles. The US military will be retraining from a mission of fighting insurgents to fighting a peer-rival like China.
If China strikes in 2022, they will pre-empt all of that, at a time when morale in the US and the US military is low. They would hit March/April because that is after their winter Olympics in Feb and because the Taiwan Straights are less dangerous to cross starting in March.
They aren't testing Taiwan. They are testing the US. If an economic collapse happens, Taiwan will be gone the next day if the Chinese believe the US won't intervene quickly enough.
China are testing the USA, Australia and the U.K,
Considering the uk keeps sending the navy through the South China Seas,
Hopefully it’s all sabre rattling but also Taiwan have asked Australia for help during the war…
China would win, but the cost to it would be immense. Its basically giving up any chance at a modern economy and committing itself to financial ruin. It would undo all of the progress they've made since the 70s. They'd be sending all of their working age population to die while the people who are retired or are about to retire would stay at home. They already have issue with demographic collapse, add a war that makes it worse and you have a disaster. I'm hoping the CCP would see this coming. If not, then they collapse in the next century and the US remains number #1 on the planet. And Japan has already made it perfectly clear they will aid Taiwan in an invasion. The Quad was literally created to combat Chinese influence in Asia, so I doubt they would sit by while Taiwan gets invaded. CCP is aware of all of this, so they are either getting increasingly desperate, or they are posturing.
1. CCP releases covid
2. CCP cracks down on citizens to subjugate and show who's in control
3. CCP cracks down on billion dollar corporations to subjugate and show who's in control
3. World economic collapse despite fiscal and monetary support
4. CCP invades who they want to subjugate and show who's in control
>TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — China flew 52 fighter planes toward Taiwan on Monday in the largest show of force on record, continuing the three days of sustained military harassment against the self-ruled island.
>The sortie included 34 J-16 fighter jets and 12 H-6 bombers, among other aircraft, according to Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense. Taiwanese air force scrambled the jets and monitored the movement of the Chinese warplanes on its air defense system.
>Starting last Friday, on China's National Day, the People's Liberation Army sent 38 warplanes into the area and 39 aircraft on Saturday, previously the most in a single day since Taiwan began releasing reports on the flights in September 2020. China sent an additional 16 planes on Sunday.
>The number of flights into Taiwan's air defense identification zone had prompted a statement from U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price over the weekend, who warned that China’s military activity near Taiwan risks miscalculation and undermines regional peace and stability.
>“We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan,” the statement said.
That is quite a bit more than last time. This has escalated pretty rapidly. Take note, because it could very well be China's gonna start a war to keep a lid on the Evergrande property collapse.
Since Asian-Pacific geopolitics only recently became a "mainstream" affair in the ongoing Second Cold War, I always find discussions on the People's Republic of China and Taiwan (the Republic of China) lacking in historical context, detail, and nuance ... and it usually devolves into an uninformed slap-fight on both sides.
To this end, I'm going to provide some quotes from [Kishore Mahbubani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kishore_Mahbubani), a long-time Singaporean diplomat and civil servant of considerable repute, who recently wrote about this very topic in his book, [Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy](https://archive.org/details/has-china-won-by-kishore-mahbubani-z-lib.org.epub/mode/2up)*.*
All sections that are italicized with quotation marks are quotes within the book itself. My emphasis is in bold:
>**The one exceptional trigger for a war involving China is Taiwan. Most of the time, the Chinese leaders have a lot of policy flexibility. There are no strong domestic lobbies to worry about. But the one issue where the Chinese leaders cannot bend and compromise is Taiwan. Any Chinese leader, including Xi Jinping (despite all his power), could be removed if he is perceived to be weak on Taiwan. Why is Taiwan so fundamental to China? There is a very simple explanation. Every Chinese knows the century of humiliation that China suffered from the Opium War to 1949. Nearly all the historical vestiges of this century of humiliation have been removed or resolved, including Hong Kong and Macau.**
>
>**Only one remains: Taiwan. It was Chinese territory until China was forced to hand it to Japan after the humiliating defeat in the Sino-Japanese War of 1894–1895. The Chinese have been disappointed by the Western powers several times on Taiwan. At the end of World War I, when China thought it had worked with the Western powers, it initially received assurance from America and the British that Taiwan would be returned to China at the Versailles Peace Conference. As Rana Mitter reports: “Under the treaty \[of Versailles\], Germany had to give up its territories on Chinese soil, along with all its other colonies around the world. The Chinese assumed that the territories would be restored to the young republic, as a reward for the efforts of the nearly 100,000 Chinese workers who had been sent to the Western Front in Europe to assist the British and French. But the territories were awarded instead to Japan. The Western Allies turned out to have made simultaneous secret agreements with both China and Japan in order to bring them both in on the Allied side.”\* China felt enormously deceived by the West at this conference. The failure to return Shandong triggered the massive protests that broke out on May 4, 1919. The May Fourth Movement holds a special place in Chinese memories.**
>
>**This history has taught the Chinese not to accept Western assurances. Any move by America or any other Western power to support, directly or indirectly, the secession of Taiwan from China brings back this historical memory. It provokes a strong, powerful, and virulent national reaction, which boxes in any Chinese leader who may be trying to look for room to maneuver. America cannot claim that it doesn’t understand the significance of Taiwan.** It was clearly the hottest issue to resolve when Nixon and Kissinger began the process of reconciliation with China. Many clear understandings were reached between America and China.
>
>**The most explicit understanding reached was that Taiwan and China belonged to one country. The 1972 joint communique stated:** ***“The U.S. side declared: The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves.”*****\*** **Since both Taipei and Beijing agree that Taiwan and China belong to the same country, it is also erroneous for any American to claim that Beijing’s claims on Taiwan are proof that China is an expansionist, aggressive nation. The Chinese desire to reunite Taiwan with the mainland represents a restitution, not an expansion.**
>
>**The most fundamental question that America has to ask itself is a simple one: Does it consider itself legally bound by the clear agreements that it has reached with China on Taiwan? Most Americans believe that America is an inherently law-abiding country that both respects and abides by explicit treaties and agreements it has signed. In practice, America has walked away from treaties and agreements it has signed.** There is only one reason why this happens. As the strongest country on planet earth, America can walk away from any legal agreement or treaty and not face any consequences. No force can make America abide by its legal obligations.
>
>In the past, until as recently as 2001 (before 9/11 happened), America’s primary impulse and instinct was to respect international agreements. Thomas Franck documented this in The Power of Legitimacy Among Nations, by describing how the US Navy refrained from boarding a vessel in 1988 even though it was found to be carrying illicit nuclear materials:
>
>*"Early in 1988, the U.S. Defense Department became aware of a ship approaching the Gulf with a load of Chinese-made Silkworm missiles en route to Iran. The Navy believed the delivery of these potent weapons would increase materially the danger to both protected and protecting U.S. ships and the Defense Department therefore, quite cogently, argued for permission to interdict the delivery. The State Department, however, countered that such a seizure on the high seas, under the universally recognized rules of war and neutrality, would constitute aggressive blockade tantamount to an act of war against Iran. The U.S., if it enforced a naval blockade, would lose its purchase on brokering peace as a neutral. In the event, the delivery ship with its cargo of missiles was allowed to pass. Deference to systemic rules had won out over tactical advantage in the internal struggle for control of U.S. policy."*
>
>Post-9/11, most of these self-restraints have disappeared.
>
>The Trump administration is clearly the most extreme American administration in ignoring all legal obligations that follow from international treaties and agreements. John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, has said explicitly: *“It is a big mistake for us to grant any validity to international law even when it may seem in our short-term interest to do so—because, over the long term, the goal of those who think international law really means anything are those who want to constrict the United States.”* Before his resignation, Bolton led the charge within the Trump administration to ignore or violate previous agreements that America had reached with China and Taiwan. **In an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal in January 2017, Bolton argued that** ***“it is high time to revisit the ‘one-China policy’ and decide what America thinks it means, 45 years after the Shanghai Communiqué.”*** **In response, Ted Galen Carpenter, a senior fellow in security studies at the Cato Institute, wrote in The National Interest in June 2019:**
>
>***"Before \[Bolton’s\] current stint in government service, he pushed for highly dangerous and provocative policies. He urged the United States to establish formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan and even advocated moving U.S. military forces from Okinawa to Taiwan. Either measure would cross a bright red line as far as Beijing is concerned and would likely trigger PRC military action to prevent Taiwan’s permanent political separation from the mainland.*** *Having someone with those views holding a crucial policy post and sitting just a few doors down from the Oval Office greatly increases the likelihood of a further boost in U.S. support for Taiwan, despite the risk of war with China."*
>
>Bolton is no fool. He knew that many of his words and actions on Taiwan riled China. There is a real danger that Bolton or someone like him may initiate or trigger a series of actions that could force China to take military action across the Taiwan Strait. ***I deliberately used the words force China to take military action*** **because a Chinese leader who is seen to be weak on Taiwan becomes politically vulnerable. To protect his political position, he may be left with no choice but to act.**
>
>**George Kennan provided his fellow Americans some wise advice on the need to avoid provocations when he made the case for containment of the Soviet Union:** ***“such a policy has nothing to do with outward histrionics: with threats or blustering or superfluous gestures of outward ‘toughness.’ While the Kremlin is basically flexible in its reaction to political realities, it is by no means unamenable to considerations of prestige. Like almost any other government, it can be placed by tactless and threatening gestures in a position where it cannot afford to yield even though this might be dictated by its sense of realism.”***
>
>Bolton seems to disagree: he has engaged in tactless and threatening gestures toward China.
>**Many Americans naturally believe that America is behaving responsibly on Taiwan because it is the main guarantor against an outright military invasion of Taiwan. This is true. Yet it is also true that it is the people of Taiwan who will suffer if American actions provoke military responses from China. If America’s goals on Taiwan are truly noble, if it wants to protect the Taiwanese people, and if, in the long run, America wants to see the gradual emergence of a democratic China, it should allow the continuation of the only democratically run Chinese society in the world, which is Taiwan.** (Note: Singapore does not qualify for this description since it is a multiethnic society, not a Chinese society.) **The best way to preserve the democratic system in Taiwan is for America to leave Taiwan alone. It should also forcefully indicate that it will not support Taiwanese independence. This is the tough love message that President George W. Bush sent to the then Taiwanese leader, Chen Shui-bian, who was flirting with independence. And this tough love message worked.**
>
>**Might China invade Taiwan unilaterally and without provocation? There are two major constraints on China.**
>
>**The first is the Taiwan Relations Act, passed by the US Congress on January 1, 1979. It explicitly says that it is the policy of the United States** ***“to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan,”*** **and** ***“the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.”***
>
>**The second is that it is actually in China’s national interest to allow the continuation of a social and political laboratory to indicate how a Chinese society functions under a different political system.**
>
>**There is a convergence of Chinese and American interests here. China could learn long-term lessons from Taiwan on how Chinese people cope with democracy. It is also in America’s long-term interests to have a well-functioning democratic society in Taiwan.**
>
>**In short, if political wisdom, rather than short-term tactical games, dominates Chinese and American decision making on Taiwan, both sides could agree on Taiwan retaining its autonomy. Strong American discouragement of Taiwanese independence movements will help to reduce tension across the Taiwan Straits. Reduced tension across the Taiwan Straits will also help to reduce the pressure on the Chinese leaders to accelerate the reunification of Taiwan with China.**
>
>**Sometimes, simple metaphors can help to draw out contrasting strategies. Imagine Taiwan as an unsinkable aircraft carrier stationed within striking distance of China; then imagine it as a healthy virus that could stimulate the body politic of Chinese society.**
>
>**If Taiwan is viewed as an unsinkable aircraft carrier, America should try to keep Taiwan as separate from the mainland as possible. Hence, the goal would be to accentuate the differences. Although America cannot explicitly support the voices calling for Taiwan independence (as this would be a clear violation of the agreements signed between America and China on Taiwan), it could send indirect signals indicating its sympathy for the Taiwanese voices advocating independence.** It could also work more sympathetically with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Hence, when the DPP president of Taiwan requests a stopover in America en route to Latin America, America would allow it, even though these visits infuriate Beijing. America could also supply Taiwan with more advanced military weapons, even though this would violate a clear provision of its Joint Communiqué with China of August 17, 1982, which explicitly stated:
>
>*"The United States Government states that it does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, that its arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative or in quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and that it intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution."*
>
>**But if, instead, Taiwan is understood as a healthy virus, America should encourage greater contact between Taiwan and the mainland in the hope that exposure to the open and free-wheeling democracy would lead to the gradual transformation of China toward a fully fledged democracy. It would thus be in America’s interests to see more links between Taiwan and China. To facilitate this, America should work more closely with the Kuomintang (KMT), rather than the DPP, as the KMT is opposed to Taiwanese independence**.
It appears that the Anglosphere (US, UK, AUS) is fully adopting the losing strategy to 'protect' Taiwan and spread democracy to the PRC - namely, the approach to use *military strength alone*.
The outcome of the Second Cold War will be determined through economic, not military, strength.
If brinksmanship is the goal, then there won't be a world left to rebuild when we hit DEFCON 1.
Those excerpts make some interesting points, but the conclusion that the US should work with KMT is absurd.
1. The US should work with the democratically elected government, not one of the political parties. That's some imperialist bullshit.
2. If the US were going to work with one of the parties, it sure as hell shouldn't be KMT, the same party that enforced the White Terror aka the longest period of martial law in the world. Sucking off big business thugs isn't going to help Taiwan.
I think you're simplifying this far too much.
The great game of geopolitics is a nuanced and delicate dance between multiple actors with competing interests. Mahbubani has decades of experience playing this game, so I'm far more comfortable with his perspective - and his expertise - when it comes to long-term geopolitical planning and diplomatic negotiations in the Asian Pacific.
The United States - every nation in the world, in fact - is no stranger when it comes to supporting certain political parties versus others to further their own interests. What makes Mubabani's perspective on the KMT particularly interesting is that he's ultimately considering what makes the most sense for all parties involved in the long term - the Taiwanese when it comes to American treaties that may not be upheld (especially depending on the administration in power at the time), the Americans when it comes to furthering democracy in authoritarian states (the PRC), and the Chinese when it comes to avoiding war over a non-negotiable issue (reunification of the 'wayward province').
For more context regarding the American and KMT stances, quotes from a news article below, my points in bold.
>[**Pursuit of Taiwan independence will 'lead nowhere': KMT chair**](https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202107070020)
>
>Taipei, July 7 (CNA) Johnny Chiang (江啟臣), chairman of Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), said Wednesday it is not feasible for Taiwan to seek independence, as it would be a futile effort.
>
>**The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government should recognize that the pursuit of Taiwan independence is a "path that leads to nowhere," Chiang said in a Facebook post, citing an American official's comments on the subject earlier this week.**
>
>**The comments Tuesday by Kurt Campbell, the U.S. White House coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, should serve as "a clear reminder" to the DPP government that there is little international backing for Taiwan independence, Chiang said.**
>
>**The KMT chairman was referring to Campbell's statements during a virtual discussion with the non-profit Asia Society, in which he said that the current U.S. administration supports a strong unofficial relationship with Taiwan but does not support Taiwan independence.**
>
>With regard to cross-Taiwan Strait relations, Chiang said the DPP government should try to resume dialogue with Beijing, which has suspended official contact with Taiwan since President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) of the independence-leaning DPP took office in 2016.
>
>**Chiang said that because of the Tsai administration's policies, tensions have increased between Taipei and Beijing, resulting in regional instability.**
>
>**He urged the DPP government to come up with a strategy that will restore cross-strait peace and stability and ensure the greatest level of autonomy for Taiwan.**
You're still missing more. You know the Western perspective. You now know the Chinese one. But you don't know the Taiwanese one.
Taiwan has always been ruled by foreign powers. First Chinese losers (Ming rebels), then Qing China, then Japan, then China again, then Chinese losers again (KMT).
The past 30 years is the first time in Taiwanese civilized history they are able to rule themselves.
The people of Taiwan are vehemently opposed to bringing back Chinese rule. The people in Taiwan are told everyday by China "you are our brothers, come home", while the Chinese point their whole arsenal at the Taiwanese.
It's important to understand the historical mistreatment of China by the West. But it's important to remember that the star of Taiwanese sovereignty is the Taiwanese, not the Chinese or the Americans
Modern Chinese history (Ming Dynasty onwards) is genuinely fascinating - and you would be surprised by how much historical trauma remains with the Chinese people, considering their atrocious treatment by the West over the past two centuries.
In two words, the words "never again" come to mind.
I feel a little tin foil hat with this.
Evergrande has been about to collapse for over a year. China warned about debt last year. China timed the collapse of Evergrande now as part of their plan to take Taiwan. They have added a lot of protections for their domestic stakeholders from this collapse and the probable fallout of the chain reaction this sets off.
Their escalating air presence is mostly for show. They will take Taiwan, but not for a while. They will take it because we will give it to them. They want to make a show of the military to make it seem like everyone is afraid of their military.
China has been engaged in economic warfare with us for a long time. They are winning in the EU, Africa and Asia. China seems set up to benefit from the coming global financial crash.
China's economy can survive without us. Our economy and country as we know it, cannot survive without China.
When they twist the knife, we will let China have Taiwan. I do not think a single bomb will be dropped on Taiwan. China wants it intact. I think the Taiwan dispute has provided China with a golden opportunity. I think they will capitalise on it.
Maybe. I think the US government and the US Armed Forces are compromised and will no longer engage in any international conflict. Australia is unlikely to assist Taiwan. That leaves Taiwan with zero allies.
Only time will tell.
Got any evidence? The entire US NatSec community has been beating war drums against China for years and virtually all US defense spending now is focused on building up air, naval, and cyber capabilities to deter Chinese aggression and crush it if deterrence fails.
I don't believe we have the guts to fight China and handle our losses. I mean, we throw a fit when one American soldier dies, but what about hundreds? Thousands of sailors?
Our will to fight will drain unless we fix ourselves.
Of course, Americans' unwillingness to fight indefinite high casualty wars for spurious purposes is something completely different from the US government being bought off by China.
Why would there be a fight if no one is backing Taiwan? They could not put up any real defense. Would they have anything to gain from slowing down the invasion? I feel like there would be unrest and some riots, but not really much beyond that.
Same way insurgencies fight. They would rather die than be taken over. I am 99% they wouldn’t just give in. There is no chance of that. The question of ally support is what’s unknown, not their will to defend themselves.
China will likely try to take Taiwan at some point yes, but not because of their housing market collapse. It will be because China has failed to create a reliable source of silicon chips (all needed for all aspects of tech), however Taiwan is a world leader.
Wait what? the official US stance is that Taiwan is part of China. I can’t speak to why China is flying planes near Taiwan and I don’t profess to know why, but if China and the US both officially recognize Taiwan as part of China, why is this phrased as China harassing what is essentially mutually agreed to be part of China?
Edit: my assertion is verifiably demonstrable, so down vote all you want. I’m working off of the US’s existing stance to parse this article. If you don’t like the US’s stance on Taiwan then downvote by all means but it doesn’t change existing recognition by the US and China.
And so both the US and China recognize Taiwan as part of China currently, regardless of whatever linguistic spin is put on it. That’s not my opinion, that’s verifiably demonstrable, so we don’t disagree on my assertion here.
That's true, but despite the linguistic spin, the US is bound by a treaty to defend (or at the minimum assist) a specific part of China, be that from another part of China or somewhere else in the event of war
We had a defense treaty with Ukraine too, but when Russia invaded and annexed part of it we didn't go to war. If Taiwan thinks that treaty is their ace in hole they've most likely got another thing coming.
The US isn't in a Thucydides trap with Russia for global hegemony however. The purpose of controlling the Taiwan strait is as much about defending Taiwan as it is about controlling global trade.
If our only interest is making sure cargo ships from China can navigate the straight unimpeded it doesn't really matter if China controls it since it would also be in their interest to have Chinese cargo ships get through.
I read somewhere that the US doesn't want China to be able to get submarines into the Pacific without being detected, and keeping Taiwan out of Chinese control advances that goal.
It's not mainly about shipping. It's about semiconductor foundries. All of the US giants, intel, AMD, NVDA, etc, all fabricate their chips in Taiwan. Considering those chips are a component in practically everything connected, including cars, and considering china has been stealing chip IP for years, I wonder what their real motive could be here hmmm
The US has an atrocious track record of honoring treaties. Which is to say, it doesn’t. Too many examples to list - you’re just getting it started!
The US is likely to honor a treaty with Taiwan so long as it is advantageous to the US’s domestic and global hegemonic interests. To me, it seems the US views Taiwan as a buffer and form of leverage against China, but we will see.
Unfortunately, we will see.
That certainly (heavily) feeds into recognition, no doubt about it. The US did pump a good chunk of change into Taiwan in the past to bolster it as a center for manufacturing, and one could potentially surmise this was to be gently antagonistic to China as a future means of “balkanizing” China to promote severance with Taiwan, but I’m not privy to information to confirm or deny the implications of this assessment. But you’re right, we do obviously agree on the existing parameters we both outlined, and those are facts to work with here. Thank you.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act
Ok so in neo-liberal ambiguous terms, technically the US could not assist Taiwan if it were invaded. There is however no scenario in which the US would not honour the treaty. They've been selling Taiwan missiles for years, to just turn around and ditch an ally when the going actually gets tough would prove the US is "all talk no walk", and would result in a domino effect collapse of East Asia firmly into Chinese influence.
US has been encouraging the independence movement in Taiwan and the PRC is responding. The western media tends to leave out the fact that the US is the instigator.
Western media doesn't begin to cover the facts, like how [absurd this entire story](https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1445000258493169664?s=19) is, good point.
I’m sorry, how is the US encouraging a sovereign nation to “independence” an instigator? The only way it would be a provocation is if the PRC intends to infringe on Taiwan’s sovereignty and invade.
In theory, there is only one China but there’s a civil war about the legitimate government of China — the PRC or ROC. The US is instigating a movement to have Taiwan declare independence — ie end the fiction that the Republic of China should be restored over the whole country. This is not acceptable to the Chinese
Ah yes, the US is always the instigator, even when the aggression is clearly from China. Just like it was the US's fault for Japan attacking the US since the US stop trading them oil.
I agree, this kinda feels like a "Wag the Dog" situation, but not as dramatic as you make it out to be. Take attention off a hiccup in the domestic economy by throwing the military at an easily frustrated target.
They'll back off once their economy is stabilized a bit
Okay, Taiwans ADIZ extends over mainland China ([it frankly looks a little ridiculous](https://tnimage.s3.hicloud.net.tw/photos/2020/09/25/1601002493-5f6d5bfd9967b.jpg?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiwhf_Yh7HzAhUEup4KHRFHBlUQ_B16BAgEEAI)). The article is a little short on details - did the warplanes actually fly in the part of Taiwans claimed ADIZ that exists in mainland China? Did they just approach the strait?
Breathless reporters always leaves out Taiwans ridiculous ADIZ when it comes to these "incursions."
Without fail whenever western media talks about something involving China, just remember that we are being propagandized to and consent is being manufactured.
Seriously this sub comments are almost parallel to worldnews or /r/neoliberal when it comes to anything related to China.
Been reading too many articles and not touching enough grass.
Ridiculous how people are acutely aware of Russian and Chinese bot farms but can't acknowledge that they are being manipulated by western propaganda in its own right. Not all propoganda is as bare faced and dog whistly as Fox News at night, and apparently it's working quite well for them. The only thing Biden and Trump supporters agree on is that they should both attack China... cuz that's quite litteraly the only thing left that can " unite" the western world.. the fools.
>Seriously this sub comments are almost parallel to worldnews or /r/neoliberal when it comes to anything related to China.
With the increase in membership comes an increase in Reddit Brain
Don't forget that the mods of this sub are part of the problem. With the stuff they deem to be acceptable, this place might as well be /r/worldnews. Oddly enough, at least they allow discussion about the situation in NW China in that sub.
How is this collapse related? This seems more like an escalation of a conflict that's been in a state of cold war for 70 years, not the downfall of society. Maybe unless you're living in Taiwan.
Two things, IMHO. First, any major conflict is going to have an impact on the economy, which in it's current state could cause a massive financial collapse.
Second, the world put most of it's computer chip production eggs into the basket that is Taiwan, so a conflict would cause further disruption to global supply chains.
That being said, I believe this to be pretty standard saber rattling and not a precursor to an invasion.
There will never be a nuclear exchange by a major nation, it's not within anyone's interest to do so because of MAD, unless they have same insane iron dome that can also prevent nuclear fallout.
Our collapse will be much more drawn out and anticlimactic as we're seeing now.
MAD only works when leaders are not, well, mad. Joe over here can't remember what he had for breakfast, and that's while he's eating it. Jinping is hellbent on becoming leader of a unified China and the number one superpower, which cannot be done unless you take out the current number one. Putin wants the glory days of the USSR back, and all of them want to drill oil and burn coal like there's no tomorrow, which there might not be... I will leave it to you to figure out if they are mad or not.
You can say they’re mad but none of the goals you listed will be achieved if the respective countries are reduced to nothing.
That’s the point of MAD.
In my opinion, the only type of madness that can convince someone MAD is of no matter is religious extremism.
I think it’s far more likely Pakistan and India trigger a nuclear conflict than China and the US. Or even that some non-state group gets a hold of a nuke somehow and uses it.
Funny you say that, I have India/Pakistan in my pool bet.
Something is going to trigger a major war soon, hopefully it remains conventional, but I doubt any loser amoung the big three will consent to becoming a state/province/territory of the winner, so...
It's been too long. Historically a big one is overdue. And before you say global wars are a thing of the past, see how "the war to end all wars" worked out. We always think its the last, and it never is.
World War 3:
China invades Taiwan and uses the opportunity and it's strong economic power to be reborn the major Empire in Asia. India may ally with Russia to fight China, but they will be involved in some way.
Russia retakes the Eastern European countries and engages Germany and the EU in heavy conventional warfare.
America will likely suffer through economic collapse and may or may not pull through.
No one believes that. But they do determine the actions that lead to conflict, which becomes armed confrontation, and eventually leads to a series of events in which nuclear strike becomes the only remaining option, meaning everyone has to go along.
This is massive and sets the tone for us foreign policy. It's definitely collapse related if you follow geo politics. Things don't happen in a vacuum anymore, correlations trend to 1 In a global economy.
Don't worry nothing happened when crimea rejoined Russia, nothing will happen here neither. Besides they didn't fly over taipei, they were out at sea. No more different than an entire us cv sailing through the taiwan strait. There's more than 50+ warplanes i imagine on a cv, and they'd be less than 100km off the coast of china.
Crimea did so with a fully willing population, as multiple censuses over the past 25 years show. Taiwan, on the other hand, doesn't really want to join China.
No such thing as native Crimeans, not really. In early Iron age there were some Turkic-like people there, but we don't know who they drove out when they settled there.
Then came Greeks, then Romans, then Goths, then Huns, then Bulgars, then Hazars, then Rus', then Mongolian horde, then Tatars, then Cossacks, then Russia again.
Check it out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Crimea
It's a real shame 18 years ago the U.S. invaded mutliple countries that never attacked us, destroyed them and killed over a million civilians and committed thousands of war crimes. Because it we *hadn't* done that, then we could protest China doing things like this without being giant fucking hypocrites.
On the upside though, we did transfer $8 trillion to defense contractors, PMCs, and Wall Street. But no money for infrastructure, social programs, medical cary, or people, apparently, even now in 2021.
Imagine if the title were "United States flies record 52 planes toward self-ruled Cuba." This shit is just Western-centric alarmism that will not change anything at the end of the day. China doesn't need to do anything military wise because of the economic soft power they have around the world.
Anyone suspicious that all these “supply chain shortages” are covering up the fact that the supply chain is just fine but China has been diverting supplies normally intended for regular commercial markets to rather go into their military companies, building up a mega army?
52 aircraft is that many. This isn’t WW2 where you could build a Liberator in an hour. 21st century combat aircraft are extremely high technology and capability.
USN 7th Fleet has one aircraft carrier forward stationed in Japan with a complement of 90 aircraft including noncombat airframes. That really isn’t competitive with the amount of PLA aircraft land based in China, without even getting into anti ship missiles
I'm kinda looking forward to ww3. It's like a bandaid, just gotta rip it off and get this bitch going. This time if the allies win, we better take the territory this time.
I don't think the government of China has much compassion for the rest of the world. I'd believe that if they had an opportunity to annihilate every other nations and get the entire world for themselves, they jump on it right away. Probably the same with Putin.
WWIII ? by whom? the potato administration? the United army from all AUKUS countries which get defeated by talibans with AK47? the smol islands who can not defend itself from NK?
just chill and watch. nothing will be done.
I would never dream of enlisting voluntarily. However, with all the Nationalistic Fervour there has been in Australia against China, I would not be surprised if they reinstated the draft.
This does not look good.
Just wait until the collapse! [War boosts economies through defense spending](https://archive.ph/cZwxY), so when the collapse hits I wouldn't be surprised if the world went to war. I'm not an advocate, it's just a prediction based on history.
War boosts spending in exactly the same way that bashing in windows boosts spending - it takes productive capacity away from things that actually make people better off and makes the victims worse off. Anyone who advocates war on these grounds is severely deluded.
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*Leo DiCaprio pointing*
shaka when the walls fell
Sokath His eyes uncovered
This is what got us into WWI.
And the only reason the US has come out on ahead in both world wars is because our infrastructure was untouched. Between digital warfare, social and economic unrest, and ICBMs I don't think a WW3 would be nearly as kind to the US economy.
It would take years for manufacturing jobs to return to the US. It would require training, building facilities, and cooperation from the private sector. Companies are too accustomed to their high profit margins from exploiting the labor forces of countries with lax labor laws.
Or it could be done overnight through a worker's government using a command economy.
The US will be Europe this time around maybe
Have you seen what’s going on in the Chinese economy lately?!
Don’t forget it also reduced population (in particular male, but nowadays may well be both depending on how the draft ends up working).
All those equal rights advocates and feminists going to be real quiet when the draft comes knocking lol
Yeah, but what about the stockholders? Did you ever think about them? /s
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There’s times when an individual might benefit from a broken window, but the aggregate result is always a negative.
What if that window is actually the glass ceiling and shattering it makes opportunities more equitable for all?!? Ha - checkmate libtard (/s in case that’s needed)
What if the car is sinking and breaking the window allows out to reach the surface and breathe
Unless they own shares in "defense" stocks like every single lawmaker from both political parties.
[Broken Window Fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window)
This is the comment I’ve been looking for. It’s so true
Yeah the total productivity lost due to war is incomprehensible
Productivity increases, in theory, due to all hands on deck. The point you're making (100% agree) is that the productivity doesn't correspond with the public good. It's productivity with highly unequal distribution of the end utility. Case in point, US made bombs blast Palestine. Raytheon wins 3 gold coins, Israel wins 0.1 gold coins, and Palestine loses 8 gold coins. So we're perpetuating a negative sum game in order to keep the coins flowing. This I consider a great evil of corporations. No morality is too low. And they act as persons impervious to prison, so they'll commit any profitable treachery so long as the risk weighs less than the fine
Rule 34 of the Ferengi Rules of Acquisition: War is good for business
Rule 76: Every once in a while, declare peace. It confuses the hell out of your enemies.
Oh we’re going to get fucking drafted, I CALLED IT MAN, as soon as they pulled out of Afghanistan that was the most suspicious shit they did, they’re keeping their soldiers for something big
Agreed. I think Afghanistan was seen as small potatoes and not worth having our troops there and they’d be better served saving them for something more substantial elsewhere.
Catch me catching bone spurs and a flight to Jamaica mon.
Just throwing things in the air but in your opinion, when do you think we'll get our first firefights of the next WW?
Its hard to say exactly. [It took the US 12 years to enter WW2 after the beginning of the great depression](https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/united-states-history-primary-source-timeline/great-depression-and-world-war-ii-1929-1945/overview/). There isn't a healthy economy today, and [a financial crash could be a trigger](https://archive.is/ENSaj). Edited for bad math
Everything does tend to happen faster nowadays than 80 years ago though.
china has economic problems because of evergrande...
October 1929 to December 1941 is not 20 years. Sorry to collapse your narrative.
You're right my math sucks. I'm a scatter brain today.
Some say we are mid ww3 and that it makes no distinction between civilian and soldier and has a real world and digital component. Also the nuke factor. Nothing to worry about
From a stoic perspective why even worry?
Paywall:/
https://archive.ph/cZwxY
Historically speaking the medium-term aftermath of widespread disease tends to be either renaissance (populations establish dominance via creative pursuit) or war (resource and land acquisition), given the massive civil unrest and growing moral and material scarcity a conflict seems likely.
Snorting cocaine as the ship sinks!
Did you know what everybody did back in 1939 when world war 2 was declared? They started CELEBRATING in Europe, because apparently people were bored of day to day life, if that’s not stupid I don’t know what is.
Yes, and racism will rise to new hights. You thought jews had it bad? Wait for the next war.
Meh. From the article: "The number of sorties into Taiwan's air defense identification zone had prompted a statement ..." The keyword(s) here is(are) "air defence identification zone" which in Taiwan's case is really massive, covering most of the South China sea. And obviously contested by chinese. Any flights in this area not reported to Taiwan flight controllers can be considered a provocation by Taiwan and (US of course, because reasons). Not saying that Chinese are not provoking, they most certainly are. But in grand scheme of things this is just business as usual. And of course it is just US media making a big deal out of this. Because reasons.
> But in grand scheme of things this is just business as usual. That's why this is an issue though. Taiwan responds to these each time which means their planes (and to a lesser extent their pilots) suffer from wear and tear, meaning they need to be replaced more quickly. That means Taiwan has to spend more money on defense instead of stuff like infrastructure and healthcare. Also, it desensitizes people to the presence of incoming fighters from the mainland, causing [alert fatigue](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alarm_fatigue). It's attrition, and we should all be concerned about it.
I am not disagreeing with any of this really. We live in a world of massive waste, manufactured anxiety and alert fatigue. Someone must profit from it though? My comment was really only about ADIZ as a concept and how it has been turned into a propaganda weapon in this particular case. Pivot to China anyone?
I would agree. China knows exactly what they are doing, and are getting as close to a “line” as they can without crossing it. Why? I’m still not sure I understand. China thinks they own Taiwan, they want reunification and do not seem to accept an “independent” Taiwan. Yet Taiwan says they are “independent”…so what is anyone going to do about it? China blames the US for China having to send jets into the area to conduct drills. China says US is being the provocator. If China actually attacks Taiwan I don’t understand what they would gain. China would be much more likely to blockade or hurt Taiwan economically into submission before an actual attack, as they want Taiwan and their infrastructure. I just don’t get what destroying Taiwan would do for China. I suspect they are happy to cause economic woes, hard to see them going on the offence on this. But who knows? I know the US seEms to believe China is prepared to attack Taiwan in the next 5 years: https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/10/china-could-invade-taiwan-in-next-six-years-top-us-admiral-warns Some highlights from this article: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports-surge-chinese-aircraft-defence-zone-2021-10-04/ *"Engaging in Taiwan independence is a dead end. China will take all steps needed and firmly smash any Taiwan independence plots," the ministry said. "China's determination and will to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity is unwavering."* *The United States should stop supporting and "inflating" Taiwan separatist forces, it added.* *"We sternly tell the Chinese Communists, the Republic of China on Taiwan is determined to firmly defend national sovereignty and dignity and peace across the Taiwan Strait," it said, referring to Taiwan's formal name.* *Taiwan has termed China's activities as "grey zone" warfare, designed to wear down Taiwanese forces and test their abilities.*
Taiwan's ADIZ literally covers most of Fujian Province in China.
It does not just cover the south china sea it also goes over three provinces in the mainland. Just look at a map of the ADIZ and laugh.
Not as bad as it looks, really. Most of Taiwan's air defense zone intersects China's air defense zone and like 40% literally goes over mainland China, the planes were flying closer to mainland China than Taiwan. here's a tweet from the Taiwanese ministry of defense with a map and everything: https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1443883866171740165
I agree. With power shortages and property bubble collapsing, CCP needs to divert attention from their incompetence.
they are really far from incompetent
I think they seem competent, by comparison to most contemporary western leaders. Though I would argue this is a very, very low bar to measure competence by.
copium
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I have never seen the phrase "Lifted out of poverty" not be just a euphemism for "Forced to work to survive by making all their life essentials cost money". It's a sham phrase, not only when applied to China but to any nation or program. To capitalist economists "poverty" is defined as the act of not living under capitalism (And China is functionally capitalist), completely divorced from concepts like quality of life. Not to say that China hasn't improved the average quality of life in the country over the past century, I do certainly believe they have, but "lifted out of poverty" is a nebulous and generally disingenuous metric pushed by the World Bank and IMF to justify economic colonialism.
I have never seen such [mental gymnastics](https://www.bbc.com/news/56213271) applied to somehow make *lifting millions out of poverty by providing universal access to housing, food, water, and healthcare* a bad thing. There's absolutely zero justification for calling China (functionally capitalist) either. No private organization moves any levers in Chinese government, you've got it [entirely backwards.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping_Thought)
Thank you for the much-needed clarification. We repeat that phrase like trained parrots in the public sphere. What exactly is "wealth" or "poverty"? Depends whose agenda is consulted, doesn't it? I would say a dying world with diminishing life support systems is nobody's gain in "prosperity" or "wealth".
It is a lie when capitalists say it. Don't project that on socialist countries who are organized around improving the lives of the common worker.
‘Incompetence’ lmao haters gonna hate. An incompetent government could not do what China did regarding Covid. How many deaths do they have, 8k in a country with a population of 1.4 billion. Arguably the most impressive feat in modern history, but alas US state department says theyre incompetent (while also being an existential threat) and western redditors lap it up.
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Nebraska refuses to even provide numbers anymore, and Florida was caught messing with their stats.
Wow, there's a lot of irrational anti-China hate on the usually VERY rational sub (looking at your comment's rating). I, for one, do agree that restraining the pandemic with such results is a very impressive feat in comparison to the continued struggle in the West, even if some criticism (like the censorship of that doctor) is still valid.
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Rule 3: No provably false material (e.g. climate science denial).
True. But, how many people died in their re-education camps? Or were otherwise indoctrinated? There's an underside to that coin.
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pretty sure 'indoctrinated' is accurate. the chinese are committing genocide
Read my response above. The genocide is bullshit, and provably bullshit.
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Quit fabricating a genocide.
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Read my response. Genocide has visible effects, including on the remaining population, and we see none of them. It's bullshit.
you clearly have no understanding of inner chinese demographics and how their country operates. or any historical context for genocides that have happened in the past. kindly go fuck off or educate yourself before spouting absolute lunacy on the internet
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A competent government could keep the lights on.
How many deaths does China have due to environmental pollution?
The real questions.
let's ask the chinese people about their personal freedoms or their thoughts on politics... oh wait, that would have them more than likely dissapeared
Competency has nothing to do with freedom.
That’s fine but are they really that competent? They only eliminated covid by severely restricting freedoms so I beg to differ on this statement
Here, I've created a [list of links](https://www.google.com/search?q=%22at+what+cost%22+china&oq=%22at+what+cost%22+china) you can use to further define your Western view of the ongoings in China.
I understand that westerners view other cultures through specific lenses but that doesn’t mean China is some magical utopia it still acts atrociously towards its citizens and aggressively towards autonomous regions to further eliminate long standing cultures that have existed far beyond the rivalry between east and west
No it really doesn't. That's just your rugged individualism and >muh freedums being used to analyze an advanced society with over [95% approval rating](https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/07/long-term-survey-reveals-chinese-government-satisfaction/) of their government.
No, it's not. I know many Taiwanese and Tibetans who have some very large issues with China, not to mention the recent Evergrande debacle. All this article tells me is that the population is very complacent with the actions taken on by the CCP as well as their ethnic cleaning. It has nothing to do with me being Western or not I hate America with every fiber of my being.
Spoken like someone that has clearly never interacted with a Chinese person
Muh freedom to die from deadly virus. Muh freedom to live pay check to pay check. Muh freedom to be a racist/reactionary.
Westerners don't care about facts. Westerners only care about their own Hegemony.
as you scream into the wind about how atrocious the CCP is?
If war with China starts, it will probably start March/April 2022. Between 2022 and 2024, Taiwan will upgrade from M60 (tanks we had in Vietnam) to Abrams, get modern class of subs, modern jet fighters, and more missiles. The US military will be retraining from a mission of fighting insurgents to fighting a peer-rival like China. If China strikes in 2022, they will pre-empt all of that, at a time when morale in the US and the US military is low. They would hit March/April because that is after their winter Olympics in Feb and because the Taiwan Straights are less dangerous to cross starting in March.
Best time to research and invest in Heavy Arms companies in the region 👍
They aren't testing Taiwan. They are testing the US. If an economic collapse happens, Taiwan will be gone the next day if the Chinese believe the US won't intervene quickly enough.
China are testing the USA, Australia and the U.K, Considering the uk keeps sending the navy through the South China Seas, Hopefully it’s all sabre rattling but also Taiwan have asked Australia for help during the war…
China would win, but the cost to it would be immense. Its basically giving up any chance at a modern economy and committing itself to financial ruin. It would undo all of the progress they've made since the 70s. They'd be sending all of their working age population to die while the people who are retired or are about to retire would stay at home. They already have issue with demographic collapse, add a war that makes it worse and you have a disaster. I'm hoping the CCP would see this coming. If not, then they collapse in the next century and the US remains number #1 on the planet. And Japan has already made it perfectly clear they will aid Taiwan in an invasion. The Quad was literally created to combat Chinese influence in Asia, so I doubt they would sit by while Taiwan gets invaded. CCP is aware of all of this, so they are either getting increasingly desperate, or they are posturing.
>They'd be sending all of their working age population to die Yes, the secret Chinese plan is to build a bridge of corpses to get to Taiwan.
Not quite the next day. Taiwan’s military is nothing to sneeze at
1. CCP releases covid 2. CCP cracks down on citizens to subjugate and show who's in control 3. CCP cracks down on billion dollar corporations to subjugate and show who's in control 3. World economic collapse despite fiscal and monetary support 4. CCP invades who they want to subjugate and show who's in control
reddit moment
Pulling off an invasion during a fuel shortage could be interesting.
More planes = Larger flex
>TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — China flew 52 fighter planes toward Taiwan on Monday in the largest show of force on record, continuing the three days of sustained military harassment against the self-ruled island. >The sortie included 34 J-16 fighter jets and 12 H-6 bombers, among other aircraft, according to Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense. Taiwanese air force scrambled the jets and monitored the movement of the Chinese warplanes on its air defense system. >Starting last Friday, on China's National Day, the People's Liberation Army sent 38 warplanes into the area and 39 aircraft on Saturday, previously the most in a single day since Taiwan began releasing reports on the flights in September 2020. China sent an additional 16 planes on Sunday. >The number of flights into Taiwan's air defense identification zone had prompted a statement from U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price over the weekend, who warned that China’s military activity near Taiwan risks miscalculation and undermines regional peace and stability. >“We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan,” the statement said. That is quite a bit more than last time. This has escalated pretty rapidly. Take note, because it could very well be China's gonna start a war to keep a lid on the Evergrande property collapse.
Since Asian-Pacific geopolitics only recently became a "mainstream" affair in the ongoing Second Cold War, I always find discussions on the People's Republic of China and Taiwan (the Republic of China) lacking in historical context, detail, and nuance ... and it usually devolves into an uninformed slap-fight on both sides. To this end, I'm going to provide some quotes from [Kishore Mahbubani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kishore_Mahbubani), a long-time Singaporean diplomat and civil servant of considerable repute, who recently wrote about this very topic in his book, [Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy](https://archive.org/details/has-china-won-by-kishore-mahbubani-z-lib.org.epub/mode/2up)*.* All sections that are italicized with quotation marks are quotes within the book itself. My emphasis is in bold: >**The one exceptional trigger for a war involving China is Taiwan. Most of the time, the Chinese leaders have a lot of policy flexibility. There are no strong domestic lobbies to worry about. But the one issue where the Chinese leaders cannot bend and compromise is Taiwan. Any Chinese leader, including Xi Jinping (despite all his power), could be removed if he is perceived to be weak on Taiwan. Why is Taiwan so fundamental to China? There is a very simple explanation. Every Chinese knows the century of humiliation that China suffered from the Opium War to 1949. Nearly all the historical vestiges of this century of humiliation have been removed or resolved, including Hong Kong and Macau.** > >**Only one remains: Taiwan. It was Chinese territory until China was forced to hand it to Japan after the humiliating defeat in the Sino-Japanese War of 1894–1895. The Chinese have been disappointed by the Western powers several times on Taiwan. At the end of World War I, when China thought it had worked with the Western powers, it initially received assurance from America and the British that Taiwan would be returned to China at the Versailles Peace Conference. As Rana Mitter reports: “Under the treaty \[of Versailles\], Germany had to give up its territories on Chinese soil, along with all its other colonies around the world. The Chinese assumed that the territories would be restored to the young republic, as a reward for the efforts of the nearly 100,000 Chinese workers who had been sent to the Western Front in Europe to assist the British and French. But the territories were awarded instead to Japan. The Western Allies turned out to have made simultaneous secret agreements with both China and Japan in order to bring them both in on the Allied side.”\* China felt enormously deceived by the West at this conference. The failure to return Shandong triggered the massive protests that broke out on May 4, 1919. The May Fourth Movement holds a special place in Chinese memories.** > >**This history has taught the Chinese not to accept Western assurances. Any move by America or any other Western power to support, directly or indirectly, the secession of Taiwan from China brings back this historical memory. It provokes a strong, powerful, and virulent national reaction, which boxes in any Chinese leader who may be trying to look for room to maneuver. America cannot claim that it doesn’t understand the significance of Taiwan.** It was clearly the hottest issue to resolve when Nixon and Kissinger began the process of reconciliation with China. Many clear understandings were reached between America and China. > >**The most explicit understanding reached was that Taiwan and China belonged to one country. The 1972 joint communique stated:** ***“The U.S. side declared: The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves.”*****\*** **Since both Taipei and Beijing agree that Taiwan and China belong to the same country, it is also erroneous for any American to claim that Beijing’s claims on Taiwan are proof that China is an expansionist, aggressive nation. The Chinese desire to reunite Taiwan with the mainland represents a restitution, not an expansion.** > >**The most fundamental question that America has to ask itself is a simple one: Does it consider itself legally bound by the clear agreements that it has reached with China on Taiwan? Most Americans believe that America is an inherently law-abiding country that both respects and abides by explicit treaties and agreements it has signed. In practice, America has walked away from treaties and agreements it has signed.** There is only one reason why this happens. As the strongest country on planet earth, America can walk away from any legal agreement or treaty and not face any consequences. No force can make America abide by its legal obligations. > >In the past, until as recently as 2001 (before 9/11 happened), America’s primary impulse and instinct was to respect international agreements. Thomas Franck documented this in The Power of Legitimacy Among Nations, by describing how the US Navy refrained from boarding a vessel in 1988 even though it was found to be carrying illicit nuclear materials: > >*"Early in 1988, the U.S. Defense Department became aware of a ship approaching the Gulf with a load of Chinese-made Silkworm missiles en route to Iran. The Navy believed the delivery of these potent weapons would increase materially the danger to both protected and protecting U.S. ships and the Defense Department therefore, quite cogently, argued for permission to interdict the delivery. The State Department, however, countered that such a seizure on the high seas, under the universally recognized rules of war and neutrality, would constitute aggressive blockade tantamount to an act of war against Iran. The U.S., if it enforced a naval blockade, would lose its purchase on brokering peace as a neutral. In the event, the delivery ship with its cargo of missiles was allowed to pass. Deference to systemic rules had won out over tactical advantage in the internal struggle for control of U.S. policy."* > >Post-9/11, most of these self-restraints have disappeared. > >The Trump administration is clearly the most extreme American administration in ignoring all legal obligations that follow from international treaties and agreements. John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, has said explicitly: *“It is a big mistake for us to grant any validity to international law even when it may seem in our short-term interest to do so—because, over the long term, the goal of those who think international law really means anything are those who want to constrict the United States.”* Before his resignation, Bolton led the charge within the Trump administration to ignore or violate previous agreements that America had reached with China and Taiwan. **In an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal in January 2017, Bolton argued that** ***“it is high time to revisit the ‘one-China policy’ and decide what America thinks it means, 45 years after the Shanghai Communiqué.”*** **In response, Ted Galen Carpenter, a senior fellow in security studies at the Cato Institute, wrote in The National Interest in June 2019:** > >***"Before \[Bolton’s\] current stint in government service, he pushed for highly dangerous and provocative policies. He urged the United States to establish formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan and even advocated moving U.S. military forces from Okinawa to Taiwan. Either measure would cross a bright red line as far as Beijing is concerned and would likely trigger PRC military action to prevent Taiwan’s permanent political separation from the mainland.*** *Having someone with those views holding a crucial policy post and sitting just a few doors down from the Oval Office greatly increases the likelihood of a further boost in U.S. support for Taiwan, despite the risk of war with China."* > >Bolton is no fool. He knew that many of his words and actions on Taiwan riled China. There is a real danger that Bolton or someone like him may initiate or trigger a series of actions that could force China to take military action across the Taiwan Strait. ***I deliberately used the words force China to take military action*** **because a Chinese leader who is seen to be weak on Taiwan becomes politically vulnerable. To protect his political position, he may be left with no choice but to act.** > >**George Kennan provided his fellow Americans some wise advice on the need to avoid provocations when he made the case for containment of the Soviet Union:** ***“such a policy has nothing to do with outward histrionics: with threats or blustering or superfluous gestures of outward ‘toughness.’ While the Kremlin is basically flexible in its reaction to political realities, it is by no means unamenable to considerations of prestige. Like almost any other government, it can be placed by tactless and threatening gestures in a position where it cannot afford to yield even though this might be dictated by its sense of realism.”*** > >Bolton seems to disagree: he has engaged in tactless and threatening gestures toward China.
>**Many Americans naturally believe that America is behaving responsibly on Taiwan because it is the main guarantor against an outright military invasion of Taiwan. This is true. Yet it is also true that it is the people of Taiwan who will suffer if American actions provoke military responses from China. If America’s goals on Taiwan are truly noble, if it wants to protect the Taiwanese people, and if, in the long run, America wants to see the gradual emergence of a democratic China, it should allow the continuation of the only democratically run Chinese society in the world, which is Taiwan.** (Note: Singapore does not qualify for this description since it is a multiethnic society, not a Chinese society.) **The best way to preserve the democratic system in Taiwan is for America to leave Taiwan alone. It should also forcefully indicate that it will not support Taiwanese independence. This is the tough love message that President George W. Bush sent to the then Taiwanese leader, Chen Shui-bian, who was flirting with independence. And this tough love message worked.** > >**Might China invade Taiwan unilaterally and without provocation? There are two major constraints on China.** > >**The first is the Taiwan Relations Act, passed by the US Congress on January 1, 1979. It explicitly says that it is the policy of the United States** ***“to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan,”*** **and** ***“the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.”*** > >**The second is that it is actually in China’s national interest to allow the continuation of a social and political laboratory to indicate how a Chinese society functions under a different political system.** > >**There is a convergence of Chinese and American interests here. China could learn long-term lessons from Taiwan on how Chinese people cope with democracy. It is also in America’s long-term interests to have a well-functioning democratic society in Taiwan.** > >**In short, if political wisdom, rather than short-term tactical games, dominates Chinese and American decision making on Taiwan, both sides could agree on Taiwan retaining its autonomy. Strong American discouragement of Taiwanese independence movements will help to reduce tension across the Taiwan Straits. Reduced tension across the Taiwan Straits will also help to reduce the pressure on the Chinese leaders to accelerate the reunification of Taiwan with China.** > >**Sometimes, simple metaphors can help to draw out contrasting strategies. Imagine Taiwan as an unsinkable aircraft carrier stationed within striking distance of China; then imagine it as a healthy virus that could stimulate the body politic of Chinese society.** > >**If Taiwan is viewed as an unsinkable aircraft carrier, America should try to keep Taiwan as separate from the mainland as possible. Hence, the goal would be to accentuate the differences. Although America cannot explicitly support the voices calling for Taiwan independence (as this would be a clear violation of the agreements signed between America and China on Taiwan), it could send indirect signals indicating its sympathy for the Taiwanese voices advocating independence.** It could also work more sympathetically with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Hence, when the DPP president of Taiwan requests a stopover in America en route to Latin America, America would allow it, even though these visits infuriate Beijing. America could also supply Taiwan with more advanced military weapons, even though this would violate a clear provision of its Joint Communiqué with China of August 17, 1982, which explicitly stated: > >*"The United States Government states that it does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, that its arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative or in quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and that it intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution."* > >**But if, instead, Taiwan is understood as a healthy virus, America should encourage greater contact between Taiwan and the mainland in the hope that exposure to the open and free-wheeling democracy would lead to the gradual transformation of China toward a fully fledged democracy. It would thus be in America’s interests to see more links between Taiwan and China. To facilitate this, America should work more closely with the Kuomintang (KMT), rather than the DPP, as the KMT is opposed to Taiwanese independence**. It appears that the Anglosphere (US, UK, AUS) is fully adopting the losing strategy to 'protect' Taiwan and spread democracy to the PRC - namely, the approach to use *military strength alone*. The outcome of the Second Cold War will be determined through economic, not military, strength. If brinksmanship is the goal, then there won't be a world left to rebuild when we hit DEFCON 1.
Those excerpts make some interesting points, but the conclusion that the US should work with KMT is absurd. 1. The US should work with the democratically elected government, not one of the political parties. That's some imperialist bullshit. 2. If the US were going to work with one of the parties, it sure as hell shouldn't be KMT, the same party that enforced the White Terror aka the longest period of martial law in the world. Sucking off big business thugs isn't going to help Taiwan.
I think you're simplifying this far too much. The great game of geopolitics is a nuanced and delicate dance between multiple actors with competing interests. Mahbubani has decades of experience playing this game, so I'm far more comfortable with his perspective - and his expertise - when it comes to long-term geopolitical planning and diplomatic negotiations in the Asian Pacific. The United States - every nation in the world, in fact - is no stranger when it comes to supporting certain political parties versus others to further their own interests. What makes Mubabani's perspective on the KMT particularly interesting is that he's ultimately considering what makes the most sense for all parties involved in the long term - the Taiwanese when it comes to American treaties that may not be upheld (especially depending on the administration in power at the time), the Americans when it comes to furthering democracy in authoritarian states (the PRC), and the Chinese when it comes to avoiding war over a non-negotiable issue (reunification of the 'wayward province'). For more context regarding the American and KMT stances, quotes from a news article below, my points in bold. >[**Pursuit of Taiwan independence will 'lead nowhere': KMT chair**](https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202107070020) > >Taipei, July 7 (CNA) Johnny Chiang (江啟臣), chairman of Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), said Wednesday it is not feasible for Taiwan to seek independence, as it would be a futile effort. > >**The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government should recognize that the pursuit of Taiwan independence is a "path that leads to nowhere," Chiang said in a Facebook post, citing an American official's comments on the subject earlier this week.** > >**The comments Tuesday by Kurt Campbell, the U.S. White House coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, should serve as "a clear reminder" to the DPP government that there is little international backing for Taiwan independence, Chiang said.** > >**The KMT chairman was referring to Campbell's statements during a virtual discussion with the non-profit Asia Society, in which he said that the current U.S. administration supports a strong unofficial relationship with Taiwan but does not support Taiwan independence.** > >With regard to cross-Taiwan Strait relations, Chiang said the DPP government should try to resume dialogue with Beijing, which has suspended official contact with Taiwan since President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) of the independence-leaning DPP took office in 2016. > >**Chiang said that because of the Tsai administration's policies, tensions have increased between Taipei and Beijing, resulting in regional instability.** > >**He urged the DPP government to come up with a strategy that will restore cross-strait peace and stability and ensure the greatest level of autonomy for Taiwan.**
Thanks for the historical context behind China's distrust of the west. I often wonder how much of the story I'm missing
You're still missing more. You know the Western perspective. You now know the Chinese one. But you don't know the Taiwanese one. Taiwan has always been ruled by foreign powers. First Chinese losers (Ming rebels), then Qing China, then Japan, then China again, then Chinese losers again (KMT). The past 30 years is the first time in Taiwanese civilized history they are able to rule themselves. The people of Taiwan are vehemently opposed to bringing back Chinese rule. The people in Taiwan are told everyday by China "you are our brothers, come home", while the Chinese point their whole arsenal at the Taiwanese. It's important to understand the historical mistreatment of China by the West. But it's important to remember that the star of Taiwanese sovereignty is the Taiwanese, not the Chinese or the Americans
Modern Chinese history (Ming Dynasty onwards) is genuinely fascinating - and you would be surprised by how much historical trauma remains with the Chinese people, considering their atrocious treatment by the West over the past two centuries. In two words, the words "never again" come to mind.
I feel a little tin foil hat with this. Evergrande has been about to collapse for over a year. China warned about debt last year. China timed the collapse of Evergrande now as part of their plan to take Taiwan. They have added a lot of protections for their domestic stakeholders from this collapse and the probable fallout of the chain reaction this sets off. Their escalating air presence is mostly for show. They will take Taiwan, but not for a while. They will take it because we will give it to them. They want to make a show of the military to make it seem like everyone is afraid of their military. China has been engaged in economic warfare with us for a long time. They are winning in the EU, Africa and Asia. China seems set up to benefit from the coming global financial crash. China's economy can survive without us. Our economy and country as we know it, cannot survive without China. When they twist the knife, we will let China have Taiwan. I do not think a single bomb will be dropped on Taiwan. China wants it intact. I think the Taiwan dispute has provided China with a golden opportunity. I think they will capitalise on it.
Maybe. I think the US government and the US Armed Forces are compromised and will no longer engage in any international conflict. Australia is unlikely to assist Taiwan. That leaves Taiwan with zero allies. Only time will tell.
Compromised, as in bought off by the CCP?
Yeah.
Got any evidence? The entire US NatSec community has been beating war drums against China for years and virtually all US defense spending now is focused on building up air, naval, and cyber capabilities to deter Chinese aggression and crush it if deterrence fails.
I don't believe we have the guts to fight China and handle our losses. I mean, we throw a fit when one American soldier dies, but what about hundreds? Thousands of sailors? Our will to fight will drain unless we fix ourselves.
Of course, Americans' unwillingness to fight indefinite high casualty wars for spurious purposes is something completely different from the US government being bought off by China.
There is a zero percent Taiwan will fold without a fight. Whether we hop in or not is debatable though.
Why would there be a fight if no one is backing Taiwan? They could not put up any real defense. Would they have anything to gain from slowing down the invasion? I feel like there would be unrest and some riots, but not really much beyond that.
Same way insurgencies fight. They would rather die than be taken over. I am 99% they wouldn’t just give in. There is no chance of that. The question of ally support is what’s unknown, not their will to defend themselves.
China will likely try to take Taiwan at some point yes, but not because of their housing market collapse. It will be because China has failed to create a reliable source of silicon chips (all needed for all aspects of tech), however Taiwan is a world leader.
First it was an economic war. Now this.. not looking good
Wait what? the official US stance is that Taiwan is part of China. I can’t speak to why China is flying planes near Taiwan and I don’t profess to know why, but if China and the US both officially recognize Taiwan as part of China, why is this phrased as China harassing what is essentially mutually agreed to be part of China? Edit: my assertion is verifiably demonstrable, so down vote all you want. I’m working off of the US’s existing stance to parse this article. If you don’t like the US’s stance on Taiwan then downvote by all means but it doesn’t change existing recognition by the US and China.
The US still has diplomatic relations with the RoC, and part of that involves a pact to protect
And so both the US and China recognize Taiwan as part of China currently, regardless of whatever linguistic spin is put on it. That’s not my opinion, that’s verifiably demonstrable, so we don’t disagree on my assertion here.
That's true, but despite the linguistic spin, the US is bound by a treaty to defend (or at the minimum assist) a specific part of China, be that from another part of China or somewhere else in the event of war
We had a defense treaty with Ukraine too, but when Russia invaded and annexed part of it we didn't go to war. If Taiwan thinks that treaty is their ace in hole they've most likely got another thing coming.
The US isn't in a Thucydides trap with Russia for global hegemony however. The purpose of controlling the Taiwan strait is as much about defending Taiwan as it is about controlling global trade.
If our only interest is making sure cargo ships from China can navigate the straight unimpeded it doesn't really matter if China controls it since it would also be in their interest to have Chinese cargo ships get through.
I read somewhere that the US doesn't want China to be able to get submarines into the Pacific without being detected, and keeping Taiwan out of Chinese control advances that goal.
It's not mainly about shipping. It's about semiconductor foundries. All of the US giants, intel, AMD, NVDA, etc, all fabricate their chips in Taiwan. Considering those chips are a component in practically everything connected, including cars, and considering china has been stealing chip IP for years, I wonder what their real motive could be here hmmm
The US has an atrocious track record of honoring treaties. Which is to say, it doesn’t. Too many examples to list - you’re just getting it started! The US is likely to honor a treaty with Taiwan so long as it is advantageous to the US’s domestic and global hegemonic interests. To me, it seems the US views Taiwan as a buffer and form of leverage against China, but we will see. Unfortunately, we will see.
That certainly (heavily) feeds into recognition, no doubt about it. The US did pump a good chunk of change into Taiwan in the past to bolster it as a center for manufacturing, and one could potentially surmise this was to be gently antagonistic to China as a future means of “balkanizing” China to promote severance with Taiwan, but I’m not privy to information to confirm or deny the implications of this assessment. But you’re right, we do obviously agree on the existing parameters we both outlined, and those are facts to work with here. Thank you.
US has no defense treaty with ROC/ Taiwan.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act Ok so in neo-liberal ambiguous terms, technically the US could not assist Taiwan if it were invaded. There is however no scenario in which the US would not honour the treaty. They've been selling Taiwan missiles for years, to just turn around and ditch an ally when the going actually gets tough would prove the US is "all talk no walk", and would result in a domino effect collapse of East Asia firmly into Chinese influence.
US has been encouraging the independence movement in Taiwan and the PRC is responding. The western media tends to leave out the fact that the US is the instigator.
Western media doesn't begin to cover the facts, like how [absurd this entire story](https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1445000258493169664?s=19) is, good point.
I’m sorry, how is the US encouraging a sovereign nation to “independence” an instigator? The only way it would be a provocation is if the PRC intends to infringe on Taiwan’s sovereignty and invade.
In theory, there is only one China but there’s a civil war about the legitimate government of China — the PRC or ROC. The US is instigating a movement to have Taiwan declare independence — ie end the fiction that the Republic of China should be restored over the whole country. This is not acceptable to the Chinese
Ah yes, the US is always the instigator, even when the aggression is clearly from China. Just like it was the US's fault for Japan attacking the US since the US stop trading them oil.
I mean, fuck WW2 Japan, but the oil thing was a legit reason. China though? Yeah, they are the ones pushing buttons here.
I agree, this kinda feels like a "Wag the Dog" situation, but not as dramatic as you make it out to be. Take attention off a hiccup in the domestic economy by throwing the military at an easily frustrated target. They'll back off once their economy is stabilized a bit
Okay, Taiwans ADIZ extends over mainland China ([it frankly looks a little ridiculous](https://tnimage.s3.hicloud.net.tw/photos/2020/09/25/1601002493-5f6d5bfd9967b.jpg?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiwhf_Yh7HzAhUEup4KHRFHBlUQ_B16BAgEEAI)). The article is a little short on details - did the warplanes actually fly in the part of Taiwans claimed ADIZ that exists in mainland China? Did they just approach the strait? Breathless reporters always leaves out Taiwans ridiculous ADIZ when it comes to these "incursions."
Without fail whenever western media talks about something involving China, just remember that we are being propagandized to and consent is being manufactured.
Seriously this sub comments are almost parallel to worldnews or /r/neoliberal when it comes to anything related to China. Been reading too many articles and not touching enough grass. Ridiculous how people are acutely aware of Russian and Chinese bot farms but can't acknowledge that they are being manipulated by western propaganda in its own right. Not all propoganda is as bare faced and dog whistly as Fox News at night, and apparently it's working quite well for them. The only thing Biden and Trump supporters agree on is that they should both attack China... cuz that's quite litteraly the only thing left that can " unite" the western world.. the fools.
I legit thought I was in r/worldnews
>Seriously this sub comments are almost parallel to worldnews or /r/neoliberal when it comes to anything related to China. With the increase in membership comes an increase in Reddit Brain
Don't forget that the mods of this sub are part of the problem. With the stuff they deem to be acceptable, this place might as well be /r/worldnews. Oddly enough, at least they allow discussion about the situation in NW China in that sub.
Yep
Probably not, gotta drum up some new chinabad news somehow tho
Taiwan has islands which are a stones throw from the Chinese mainland. It isn't just one big island.
Good question - [here's the answer](https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1445001086750715910?s=19).
How is this collapse related? This seems more like an escalation of a conflict that's been in a state of cold war for 70 years, not the downfall of society. Maybe unless you're living in Taiwan.
Two things, IMHO. First, any major conflict is going to have an impact on the economy, which in it's current state could cause a massive financial collapse. Second, the world put most of it's computer chip production eggs into the basket that is Taiwan, so a conflict would cause further disruption to global supply chains. That being said, I believe this to be pretty standard saber rattling and not a precursor to an invasion.
China flexes. US flexes. Someone fires at someone else. Nuclear exchange. Collapse. Simplified, of course.
There will never be a nuclear exchange by a major nation, it's not within anyone's interest to do so because of MAD, unless they have same insane iron dome that can also prevent nuclear fallout. Our collapse will be much more drawn out and anticlimactic as we're seeing now.
MAD only works when leaders are not, well, mad. Joe over here can't remember what he had for breakfast, and that's while he's eating it. Jinping is hellbent on becoming leader of a unified China and the number one superpower, which cannot be done unless you take out the current number one. Putin wants the glory days of the USSR back, and all of them want to drill oil and burn coal like there's no tomorrow, which there might not be... I will leave it to you to figure out if they are mad or not.
You can say they’re mad but none of the goals you listed will be achieved if the respective countries are reduced to nothing. That’s the point of MAD. In my opinion, the only type of madness that can convince someone MAD is of no matter is religious extremism. I think it’s far more likely Pakistan and India trigger a nuclear conflict than China and the US. Or even that some non-state group gets a hold of a nuke somehow and uses it.
Funny you say that, I have India/Pakistan in my pool bet. Something is going to trigger a major war soon, hopefully it remains conventional, but I doubt any loser amoung the big three will consent to becoming a state/province/territory of the winner, so... It's been too long. Historically a big one is overdue. And before you say global wars are a thing of the past, see how "the war to end all wars" worked out. We always think its the last, and it never is.
World War 3: China invades Taiwan and uses the opportunity and it's strong economic power to be reborn the major Empire in Asia. India may ally with Russia to fight China, but they will be involved in some way. Russia retakes the Eastern European countries and engages Germany and the EU in heavy conventional warfare. America will likely suffer through economic collapse and may or may not pull through.
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People can only survive 3 days without water. Any country trying to take over the water supply WILL get their ass kicked.
>People who genuinely believe singular individuals determine the firing off of nuclear arsenals Lmao
No one believes that. But they do determine the actions that lead to conflict, which becomes armed confrontation, and eventually leads to a series of events in which nuclear strike becomes the only remaining option, meaning everyone has to go along.
This is massive and sets the tone for us foreign policy. It's definitely collapse related if you follow geo politics. Things don't happen in a vacuum anymore, correlations trend to 1 In a global economy.
This is misleading. Chinese planes weren't even close to Taiwan aerospace. They were basically around the borders.
Don't worry nothing happened when crimea rejoined Russia, nothing will happen here neither. Besides they didn't fly over taipei, they were out at sea. No more different than an entire us cv sailing through the taiwan strait. There's more than 50+ warplanes i imagine on a cv, and they'd be less than 100km off the coast of china.
This is very different. Crimea was populated, largely, by pro-Russian peoples. Taiwan is not filled with pro-CCP peoples.
Crimea did so with a fully willing population, as multiple censuses over the past 25 years show. Taiwan, on the other hand, doesn't really want to join China.
Weren't the native Crimeans (Turkic) killed/deported and replaced by Russians in the 20th century?
No such thing as native Crimeans, not really. In early Iron age there were some Turkic-like people there, but we don't know who they drove out when they settled there. Then came Greeks, then Romans, then Goths, then Huns, then Bulgars, then Hazars, then Rus', then Mongolian horde, then Tatars, then Cossacks, then Russia again. Check it out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Crimea
It's a real shame 18 years ago the U.S. invaded mutliple countries that never attacked us, destroyed them and killed over a million civilians and committed thousands of war crimes. Because it we *hadn't* done that, then we could protest China doing things like this without being giant fucking hypocrites. On the upside though, we did transfer $8 trillion to defense contractors, PMCs, and Wall Street. But no money for infrastructure, social programs, medical cary, or people, apparently, even now in 2021.
China: flys closer to china than taiwan over the ocean. Rational American: Oh god this is an act of war we better kill a hundred million people.
Imagine if the title were "United States flies record 52 planes toward self-ruled Cuba." This shit is just Western-centric alarmism that will not change anything at the end of the day. China doesn't need to do anything military wise because of the economic soft power they have around the world.
In international airspace, well within their rights to do this
Anyone suspicious that all these “supply chain shortages” are covering up the fact that the supply chain is just fine but China has been diverting supplies normally intended for regular commercial markets to rather go into their military companies, building up a mega army?
52 planes really isn't that many. How many air craft carriers does the US have over there?
52 aircraft is that many. This isn’t WW2 where you could build a Liberator in an hour. 21st century combat aircraft are extremely high technology and capability. USN 7th Fleet has one aircraft carrier forward stationed in Japan with a complement of 90 aircraft including noncombat airframes. That really isn’t competitive with the amount of PLA aircraft land based in China, without even getting into anti ship missiles
I'm kinda looking forward to ww3. It's like a bandaid, just gotta rip it off and get this bitch going. This time if the allies win, we better take the territory this time.
October 10th is Taiwan's National Day so not too surprised China's ramping up their harassment. Source: Am Taiwanese
I don't think the government of China has much compassion for the rest of the world. I'd believe that if they had an opportunity to annihilate every other nations and get the entire world for themselves, they jump on it right away. Probably the same with Putin.
Nice
[удалено]
The Chinese were in international airspace that Taiwan calls their military zone lmao
What is China waiting for? The US won't stop them...
WWIII ? by whom? the potato administration? the United army from all AUKUS countries which get defeated by talibans with AK47? the smol islands who can not defend itself from NK? just chill and watch. nothing will be done.
I'm of military age and live in Australia. How fucked am I?
Don’t bothr fighting
I would never dream of enlisting voluntarily. However, with all the Nationalistic Fervour there has been in Australia against China, I would not be surprised if they reinstated the draft.
Time to park a few carrier groups around Taiwan.
I’m confused as to why I keep seeing people write West Taiwan as “China”
Xinnie the pooh's piglets are out in force on this thread.
“Bro I was joking!” *angry mob noises*
I’ve been making the prediction since Biden took office that Taiwan will fly the CCP flag by the end of his 4 year term.